“A Very Sick Housing Market” In Florida
The Palm Beach Post reports from Florida. “How about an early peek at March sales of existing homes, which come out this week? You’ll have an insider’s position for a day, the official Realtors report comes out Tuesday. An early report gives us a heads-up on what Wednesday’s headlines are probably going to say.”
“‘The combination of plunging sales and rising inventories is a symptom of a very, very sick housing market,’ said housing economist Thomas Lawler.”
“Single-family homes: Inventory: 15,028 for sale, compared with 12,737 in March 2006. Sold: 716, compared with 956 in March 2006. Backlog: 21 months, compared with 13 months in March 2006. Condos: Inventory: 17,368 for sale, compared with 13,413 in March 2006. Sold: 640, compared with 1,082 in March 2006. Backlog: 27 months, compared with 12 months in March 2006.”
“‘There is a high likelihood that prices will decline fairly significantly during the remainder of this year,’ Lawler said.”
The Sun Sentinel. “Just three years ago, Port St. Lucie was America’s fastest-growing city. But now, as builders, investors or other owners leave homes empty and unkempt in the slumped housing market, some council members say the city should consider actively marketing its real estate.”
“Empty houses, which account for less than 5 percent of the city’s homes, make up about 15 percent of the code enforcement violation cases, according to city officials.”
“At least 683 homes are vacant in Port St. Lucie, according to information from the Realtors Association of St. Lucie County. That number likely is significantly higher because real estate agents often do not list a home as vacant for security or marketing reasons, association representative Curtis Lowe said.”
“‘If we have a poor appearance, then that’s what we’re going to attract,’ Councilman Christopher Cooper said.”
The Herald Tribune. “CCI left hundreds of investors with unfinished homes around the state, but by far the largest concentration was in North Port. Jesse Battle III’s company, which has since filed for bankruptcy protection from its creditors, collapsed late last year, leaving 482 homes that had loans with Coast Bank in various stages of construction, some with no work done at all.”
“Juan Cruz says he is out about $100,000 on two CCI homes he contracted for that were funded by Coast through mortgage originator American Mortgage Link. On one of the properties, CCI drew $80,000 from the loan and ‘never even turned a single shovel of dirt,’ Cruz said.”
“‘We’ve had three large builder failures in the city: CCI, Jade Homes and Avalon,’ City Commissioner Fred Tower said. ‘We were the fastest-growing community and were affected by builders who saw an opportunity here.’”
“Tower said the city has been monitoring all the abandoned projects by builders within North Port and recording violations.”
The News Press. “A stalled real estate market is exposing the masters of an age-old Southwest Florida art: scheming on home sales to make big and fast bucks. The News-Press has uncovered almost 70 Southwest Florida home sales in which sellers or government officials say people either were duped or appraisals inflated so people could pad their profits.”
“‘The problem is as bad as I’ve seen it here,’ said Douglas Molloy, chief assistant U.S. attorney in Fort Myers.”
“The deals in Cape Coral involved a group of business people selling homes among themselves at inflated values, a Lee County official said. In Collier County, a Naples businessman worked independently, piling up millions of dollars in mortgages from sellers, with many of the loans past due or due this year and more than half the homes now in preforeclosure, according to county records.”
“‘There’s something really wrong going on out there,’ said Tony Iannotta, owner of a Marco Island mortgage brokering firm.”
“In conditions like those of the boom years, it can be difficult for lenders not only to keep pace but to keep watch for potentially bad deals, said consultant Jack McCabe.”
“‘There’s so much speculative activity, banks are so overworked they’re too overwhelmed to even analyze it well,’ McCabe said. ‘It’s not until things slow down that it becomes apparent.’”
“The Cape sales were financed by banks or other lending institutions that require appraisals. ‘There are appraisers who will pretty much appraise a house for anything,’ said Cindy Franklin, of the Lee County Property Appraiser’s Office.”
“All 47 Cape deals have been reclassified by the county property appraiser as not being based on the property’s actual value, Franklin said.”
“For example, Miami lawyer Julio Rodriguez bought a house in Cape Coral for $196,400 in June 2005 and sold it to Mario Fernandez, who was involved in other deals, in June 2006, months after the local market had peaked, for $305,000.”
“From June 2005 to June 2006 the median price of a single-family-home resale in Lee County dropped 5 percent from $281,000 to $268,000. The house is assessed at $167,620 by the county appraiser, whose assessments typically trail market value.”
“Rodriguez, who was the closing attorney on many of the 47 Cape deals, pointed to the market when asked about claims that appraisals had been inflated. ‘I guess the market did what it did,’ he said. ‘The market went up and up.’”
“Douglas Lee Carter of Naples, put together all of the Collier County deals. He owes more than $4 million on those loans and an additional $12.7 million in mortgages from lenders or private investors, according to county records.”
“Carter vowed to pay his debts and blamed his problems on real estate’s stumble since the end of the boom. ‘Everybody will get their money,’ Carter said. ‘If you really want to do something, fix the market.’”
“‘In the end the public ends up picking up the tab,’ said Woody Hanson of Fort Myers-based Hanson Real Estate Advisors, which specializes in resolving high-stakes disputes over appraised values.”
“Appraisers who stay on the straight and narrow can find themselves out in the cold if lenders, mortgage brokers and real-estate agents stop using their services, Hanson said. ‘They soon find themselves in a situation where they cannot say no.’”
“‘Banks could stop this if they wanted to,’ said Wayne Archer, director of the University of Florida’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. ‘When we talk about laws or appraisers, we really need to remember that banks have more of the power than anybody because they’re the ones with the money. Good lending practices would do a lot to stop this.’”
“‘Let’s face it,’ Archer said, ‘there was a lot of money to be made.’”
“Part of the problem in enforcement is that it’s sometimes a fine line between out-and-out fraud and the general atmosphere of carelessness in the mortgage industry now, said Mark Mathosian, regional director for the Florida Department of Financial Services.”
“‘There’s a heck of a lot of creative financing out there, some of which is sure to be found to be illegal,’ he said. ‘I remember at one time it took two months to get a mortgage loan. It took two months to get everything verified. Then it got competitive, and the market dictated the lenders couldn’t take that time. Before you know it, there’s almost no verification taking place.’”
The Miami Herald. “Though a booming real estate market sparked the upgrade wave in the Keys, a cold housing market may help reverse the tide. Developers planned to finance the majority of the new resorts with condominium sales, but demand for the pricey units has gone south.”
“‘All I’m seeing are projects getting canceled right now,’ said Robert Boykin, whose was to convert Marathon’s Banana Bay motel into a condo-hotel resort.”
“Nearby, at the Coconut Cay motel, owner Jim Rhyne had envisioned converting all 66 rooms into condo-hotel suites. ‘We didn’t get started on it, thank goodness,’ he said.”
‘From Jupiter to Hollywood, property taxes and homeowner insurance rates have people riled. ‘Stay in Florida because help is on the way,’ Crist said in response to a Dania Beach woman’s lament that she may have to leave Florida to find an affordable place to live. ‘We’re just at the very beginning of chopping down these twin towers of pocketbook issues that are … crushing [Floridians] financially.’
‘Coast Bank of Bradenton reported losses of $17.3 million because of potentially bad real estate loans totaling $21 million. Anchor Commercial Bank in Juno Beach reported losses of $261,000.’
‘First Bank of the Palm Beaches in West Palm Beach was $1.6 million in the red, and Paradise Bank in Boca Raton reported a $1.13 million loss.’
how can any local bank stay solvent through this ?
it’s all local says LIErah
‘Stay in Florida because help is on the way,’ Crist said in response to a Dania Beach woman’s lament that she may have to leave Florida to find an affordable place to live.”
What kind of HELP, is what I want to know. The “help” we’ve gotten so far here in Florida, is that Floridians are now on the hook for reinsurance, and yet the insurance companies have become even more like rabid dogs. What can you expect from politicians who whore themselves out to insurance companies? The only solution is for prices to come down enough so that people can pay for their homes outright and either go bare, or save up to fix their places if there’s storm damage. Sound ridiculous? Maybe, but that’s about the only thing that can be done at this point. Taxes? Fahgeddaboudit. I’d rather they didn’t do anything, because whatever comes out of Tallahassee will just be another complicated, stupid package that hurts even worse than the existing structure. And just wait until the oil drilling platfroms are located in the gulf 45 miles off the West Coast of Florida. That ought to be good for coastal property values. All that sludge washing up on the beaches, along with red tide so bad you cough up a lung of you breathe the air.
Hey, but Charlie Crist can take up the Alfred E. Newman cry of “What, me worry?”. He was a renter before he was elected governor (actually a smart move, more should have taken a leaf out of his book) and now he lives in the Governor’s mansion, courtesy of the Florida taxpayer.
Did a quick search on Holiday Isle in the keys and only saw this article. I believe it was sold, or to be sold for 98Mil. I have to guess that may be stalled by now..
http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-155944572.html
I think it is stalled there was an article about it in keysnews.com
The Florida market is sick? Heck, dead is more like it.
Coast bank has only $57 Million in shareholder equity left after the $17 mill loss….
But you still could have lots more losses from the CCI contractor scandal. I read it could be $50 million more….i guess the stockholders will have zero equity left.
Sound Familiar?
Good news for all the worry-worts on the prospect for a subprime bailout. We can all rest easier knowing that our representatives are not going to bailout the FBs and lenders:
Senators see no need for subprime “bailout”
Wed Apr 18, 2007 2:30PM EDT
By Patrick Rucker
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Democratic and Republican leaders of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee said on Wednesday they see no need for a federal bailout of the subprime mortgage lending industry.
Both spoke after a morning summit on the crisis among subprime mortgage borrowers, who qualified for loans despite shaky credit, and their lenders. The meeting drew lawmakers, regulators, mortgage industry representatives and consumer groups.
“I’m not interested in (a bailout) at this point. I think this problem can be addressed without going down that route,” said Sen. Chris Dodd, the Democratic chairman of the committee.
Sen. Richard Shelby, the most senior Republican on the panel, said he would be “unalterably opposed” to a costly federal program to rescue troubled mortgage borrowers and lenders.
“I believe the subprime problem will go on for several years,” Shelby said, but added that market forces would be corrective.
Dodd, of Connecticut, said the participants had agreed to several principles to deal with the crisis but that he would convene another meeting on May 2 to hear concrete plans.
According to a leaked document prepared by Dodd’s staff, many of the principles concern ways to help borrowers facing foreclosure.
Mortgage servicers should seek to modify the terms of subprime loans before their interest rates are reset higher and set aside dedicated resources and staff to help those borrowers, according to the document.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should work with lenders to make credit available to borrowers who have trouble refinancing out of subprime loans, the document added.
After the conference, Freddie Mac promised $20 billion in new financing to help subprime borrowers stay in their homes.
Another principle calls for servicers to make early contact with subprime borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages to determine if they qualify for a more stable loan, according to the document.
The participants weighed “points of general consensus,” Dodd told a news conference after the summit. “I can’t speak for everybody in the room, but my sense was that these were agreed upon,” he said.
An explosion of subprime mortgages available to borrowers with damaged credit helped fuel a five-year run-up in home values that ended in 2005. Now that many of those loans are becoming delinquent, regulators, lenders and lawmakers are trying to stabilize the home finance system.
dodd,hilary,frank and bama
bitch slapped
now using fuzy words to describe bailout
Read their lips. They may still structure a bailout behind the scenes without announcing it. I expect it to take the form of loading up the Federal Govt balance sheet (Fannie, Freddie, FHA, etc) with toxic mortgage debt, and saddling future generations of taxpayers with cleanup costs when a crisis unfolds at some indefinite point in the future.
fre and fnm are already in
w taxpayer $
Given the usual long timelines of federal government action, it would be 2009 before anything is active. Far too long for FB’s today.
“Far too long for FB’s today.”
Great point — while listening to political rhetoric, it is easy to forget how long it takes Leviathan to actually get *anything* done. I can remember being about one payment away from deep kimchee 30 years ago and it was very unpleasant, not to mention that I couldn’t have waited another year or two for salvation. Fortunately, back then it was easy to sell because you just added 2-3% per year to what you paid.
So…. when buying or selling a house you can’t trust anybody, it’s become a process full of swindling crooks.
Therefore, when buying or selling a house, you first have to fully understand and know how to do the job of all the “professionals” involved in the transaction, the re agents, the mortgage brokers, the lenders, the appraisers, etc.
You then have to actually do all those jobs and all the work involved to make sure these fraudulent greedy clowns aren’t steering you wrong and ripping you off.
Then, when you’ve done all that/their work, you have to pay those “professionals” big fees/commissions for the work they/you did.
Or….. you can hire another “professional” to redo, understand and check all the work that the other “professionals” have done and pay him/her a big fee/commission also.
But can you trust that “professional’?
What a stinking mess.
Yes, As I’ve always told my RE Agents, my lenders, my attorneys, and my inspectors… My name is on the mortgage, not theirs. And it’s my 20% downpayment, not theirs. Therefore, I’m double checking everything they do, hiring independent attorneys to review contracts, doing my own comps, following the inspectors around the property and asking very detailed questions about the place (I spend most of the time in the basement and on the roof), etc, etc.
When making a purchase this big, a buyer better know everything he/she can about the process. Trust no one.
(yes, I know I’m not typical. the people I deal with on the transactions end up leaving most of the work to me.)
I’ve had great inspectors in Massachusetts, Maine and Texas. (The way you can tell if you’ve hired the right inspector: Take a look at the realtor’s face when you mention his name. Does it literally fall? Good! This is your guy!) In three different transactions, these inspectors saved me from making horrible errors. The last one didn’t actually come out and say “Don’t buy this house” (I think they can lose their licenses for that) but he did write DANGER! and RISK!! several times on the report, underlined and in bright red ink. After we declined to go forward, I sent him my heartfelt thanks–and a box of expensive cigars.
I always had good experiences with inspectors. The trick is that YOU must pick them, not the realtor. Ask your realtor to recommend a few inspectors, then stay away from those since it’s likely that their loyalties lie with the realtor and not with you.
It really amazes me the minimal amount of advanced education so many “professionals” in this industry have. I’ve known people who I wouldn’t trust to pump my gas that have become RE agent, loan officers, etc.
Of course in most states you’re allowed to pump your own gas.
Not in New Jersey.
Yes, that’s considered a skilled profession there. Real estate agents? HA!
In Iraq they pay contractors 80,000 US tax free a year for this job.
Generally speaking a “profession” is an occupation that requires more than an undergraduate degree.
Re agent, loan officer etc. don’t even require that.
None of those occupations is a “profession.”
In mid 2005 when I sold my home I was shocked at how the RE business was . The realtors didn’t want me to protect myself in the contracts to the point that it was insulting to me . I was in the business before ,so I wasn’t about to do what these self-serving greedy agents were suggesting .I ended up forcing the agents to do things my way but they fought me every step of the way .
I now believe that the REIC got so corrupt with years of being in a bubble market that they tried to change the rules and felt it was OK .Of course all the new rules of behavior were based on the NAR talking points and the lack of challenge from the MSM . Placing people in homes they could not afford became normal behavior for the RE agents/lenders based on the cheerleading cry of ,”You can’t afford not to buy because real estate always goes up.”
Get rich because a greater fool will buy your POS from you and you can refinance down the road was the main sales pitch during the last three years of the RE mania . No regard for affordability of homes or the fact that society would run out of greater fools .
Sick ,it was all sick .
‘Stay in Florida because help is on the way,’ Crist said in response to a Dania Beach woman’s lament that she may have to leave Florida to find an affordable place to live.”
I thought Florida was one of the affordable places to live, I did a search on the housing tracker site housingtracker.net that formally affodable places like Salt Lake city are more than 30% higher than they were in 05, today. The rolling effect of the bubble pushed things up in cheap locals as speculators ran up the last of the affordable markets. She may not be able to find any really affordable place for some time comming.
it’s all local says LIErah
anyone find his condos in FL ?
hint) look underwater
It occurs to me that the full depth and breadth of the problem has hit home as well as the screams of the taxpayers. Better to just let the knife stick in the floor. Or foot.
Once Washington figured out there was no way to fix it they simply abandoned it. Viet Nam syndrome. Good move guys!
‘Stay in Florida because help is on the way,’
How? Unless you cut government spending and salaries way back there is no way out. Infra-structure costs money, big money these days, but here’s a clue, build prisons and contract out your services to the other 49 states.
How?
Casinos!!!
We could build casinos, legalize (and tax) protitution, and decrimilize (and tax) drug possession.
Then FL will truly be the den of sin and debauchery that it seems it so desires to be. Fu** over anyone but me; I don’t care what you do, just don’t do it to me, I was here first I don’t have to pay for anything, go home Snowbirds, and so on.
At least we could restructure our laws to reflect our someone psychotic thinking when regarding taxes/insurance and home prices.
“Then FL will truly be the den of sin and debauchery that it seems it so desires to be.”
Charlie needs to realize that we’re not in an election year. Stop making promises and start using that energy to put it to these local governments that have been allowed to spend like 18 year olds with lotto winnings. Stop limiting competition in the home insurance market and start allowing companies to charge actuarially sound rates. It will hurt in the near term, but if the companies see profit, they’ll compete. With competition comes lower rates.
“…put it to these local governments that have been allowed to spend like 18 year olds with lotto winnings.”
Amen to that! Greatly-reduced spending is the ONLY solution I don’t see proposed by the legislators or governor.
Ahem. Why don’t the voters just elect local governments that keep spending under control?
Could it be because SOH allows them to stiff non-voters for most of the increased spending?
Could be, yogi, could be…
“Why don’t the voters just elect local governments that keep spending under control?”
ROTFL!!! Because it’s easier just to move. That’s everyone’s solution.
“ROTFL!!! Because it’s easier just to move. That’s everyone’s solution.”
People vote with their feet.
“With competition comes lower rates.”
That’s not true. It doesn’t always happen. Don’t believe me? Compare the states that deregulated electricity to the ones that did not. Here is the AP story from USAToday:
Electric deregulation fails to live up to its cost-saving promises
By Ryan Keith, Associated Press
BENTON, Ill. — This wasn’t supposed to happen with deregulation. Electric bills were supposed to go down. Instead, Ellie Dorchincez can almost see the dollars evaporating every time she turns on the lights or opens the freezer at her small Farm Fresh grocery store.
Her electric bill, which used to be about $800 a month, has jumped to $1,800. She’s shut down a large freezer of frozen treats and now closes the store an hour early to cut costs but fears she still may have to raise prices and lay off some workers.
“I’m just trying to figure any way that I can right now to keep my business afloat,” Dorchincez said. “My life is at stake here.”
The cause of her distress is a common problem: the failure of deregulation to deliver its promise of lower electricity prices. In many states, it’s had the opposite effect with sharply higher rates — 72% in Maryland, up to 50% in Illinois.
Not one of the 16 states — plus the District of Columbia — that have pushed forward with deregulation since the late 1990s can call it a success. In fact, consumers in those states fared worse than residents in states that stuck with a policy of regulating their power industries.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2007-04-21-electricity_N.htm
“That’s not true. It doesn’t always happen.”
Go to buy a property insurance policy in the hurricane ridden Bahamas. You’ll have your choice of carriers and competitve rates.
Now, let’s look for property insurance in Palm Beach County. Unless you’re in a brand new house your choices are limited to small start up companies or the state pool.
The only thing deregulated was the “competition”…
Everything else is still highly regulated…Dont believe me?
Go try to set up a power plant….Try to put up power lines, or use the existing ones.
People in third world countries across the globe bought into the deregulation idea. Only to find out later that governments simply transferred servicing duties to ‘one’ party and stopped subsidizing water, telphone, electrical, and other essential services. Naturally, price increases surprised everyone including the well paid governments.
One of the problems that arose from deregulation of the electric and (at the time) telephone industries was that all of the companies wanted to produce the service and none of the companies wanted to build or maintain the distribution lines. Gummint was inadequately prepared for that. The problem was simple: consumers were so accustomed to the deferral (by distribution to all customers) of the cost of installing a new electric or phone line to their own piece of paradise, that they assumed it would remain that way after deregulation. The easier analogy for most consumers is water and sewer service. Most local governments subsidize cost-heavy sewer service with cost-light water service fees — some make them equal, by averaging the costs, in order to make the total bill more palatable to the customer.
At the end of the day, most everybody wants somebody else to pay for as much as possible of their costs. That’s most of what enables governments to exist, and all of what allows them to grow.
“Sold: 716, compared with 956 in March 2006″
This is still unbelievable that people are buying! I knew it would happen but it’s still hard to stomach.
Those numbers are off. For example last time I checked there were around 26,000 single family homes for sale not 15,000. PBC is toast. Everyone I know still there is trying to find a way out. Never trust info from PBC REIC as they are the biggest group of disingenuous people you will ever meet.
On the ground report —
I work with lots of local govts in my current job, and let me tell you, they are scared. Some are convinced that Crist is going to roll the tax revune back to 01; which will effectively (for some really bubbly areas) cut their revenue nearly in half.
They are telling employees there are going to be layoffs, no raises for 5 years, cutback in all police/fire services, etc. Obvioulsy, all the unions are starting to lobby for job protection; the outcry already is deafining from the powerful labor unions that protect the govt employees.
It’s so sad, the people effected had nothing to do with the money being squandered. I feel for them, and I hope they are able to maintain their jobs. However, the fact remains, something has to go. Everyone wants to see it be the pet projects; but of course, the politicians will cut employees and esstential services first to generate a stir and public sentiment in favor of more tax.
They should have rolled the mill rates back, what they did was akin to stealing from handicapped people (because those feeling the brunt of the burden where handicapped by their inability to vote).
Those who are most hurt are the same people who had nothing to do with the creation of this mess.
Michael — “…the politicians will cut employees and esstential services first to generate a stir and public sentiment in favor of more tax.”
That is true, IF they are allowed to get away with it. Florida has a lot of retirees with nothing more to do during the day than think of ways their local government can reduce costs. The level-headed among them might follow a previous poster’s recommendation that they take a copy of the 2001 city budget (for example) to the city commission meeting and suggest quite strongly that the commission adopt a new budget with exactly the same numbers, department by department.
There will always be a doofus or two who needed to be laid off anyway, but generally they would lay off those hired since 2000-2001, so they’re not ending long careers. It is a shame that people will lose their jobs, but most of those jobs would not have been created if the politicans had acted as you suggest and reduced millage or put the money in a contingency/trust fund or, heaven forbid, retired debt. They spent too much for the bed that they now must lie in.
“It’s so sad, the people effected had nothing to do with the money being squandered. I feel for them, and I hope they are able to maintain their jobs.”
Don’t feel sorry for them. Government parasites deserve to lose their jobs. Hopefully they will find something productive to do with their time.
Everyone in Colorado should take a moment and silently thank Douglas Bruce for getting the TABOR ammendment into the state constitution.
Ain’t that the truth. Here in Bozeman, MT the Bozeman Chronicles fails to cover the most important issue this year i.e. Real Estate bust (guess who is their number source of revenue?). I think the newspaper is not serving the community and dare I say it, dishonest. Things are bad here too. Today, I saw a flyer in the coffee shop, posted by my former RE for a condo. The flyer was next to local band gigs and yoga classes etc.
Good thing there’s no chance of hurricanes or insurance premium increases running off even more potential buyers. Maybe there’ll be a new marketing slogan: “Dare to go bare!”
“Maybe there’ll be a new marketing slogan: “Dare to go bare!”
I love it, Chip! I just read that and now my laptop screen is splattered with coffee. All I could think of was the clothing-optional resorts in central Pasco country. Damn! I’m looking for a new apartment and there was one available in one of those resorts, the price was right, but I just don’t have the balls to do it.
well, you sure don’t wanna go nekked if you ain’t got no balls…
Folks in Broward County (my neck of the woods or should I say concrete jungle) are still in denial…prices are still way, way high. Anyone has significant reductions to report? What gives?
“Anyone has significant reductions to report? What gives?”
Big condo development downtown Ft Lauderdalethat was “sold out” all of a sudden has availability. 2005 pre-construction was $675K on up. Right now buy for $499,900 and get your closing costs paid.
Maybe I’d live in downtown Ft. Lauderdale for $49,900 if my association dues were $50 per month.
“Maybe I’d live in downtown Ft. Lauderdale for $49,900 if my association dues were $50 per month.”
That’s what it was, back in the day. And not all that long ago, either. In the condo complex where I’m renting right now, I spoke to an owner who told me they paid $60,000 for one of these 2 BR 2 BA condos eight years ago. Prices now are around $190,000 to $200,000. Waterfront, y’know. But, I’m thinking the prices could actually get back down to $60,000 in another eight years.
And that is $49,900 NOT $499,900
come on Andy, we know that was a typo..
Some people might think that I’d be crazy enough to pay almost $500K for a silly downtown condo…Mike Fink gives me about that much credit sometimes.
I just got a notice from one of the auctions firms about some condos in Cape Coral. The prices are off 35% but the association fee is $10,000. a year. Figure in taxes and hell you can just rent the darn thing. These sellers have a treble hook in their mouth and are to stupid to know it YET.
here’s a craigslist posting for residential housing. Looks nice. However, Poinciana is not the best place to live.
http://orlando.craigslist.org/rfs/317073157.html
hunker down and have patience….
I have seen actual 100k off signs on realtors signs here, and there are some pretty sharp reductions in the neighborhoods I am watching. There is still a long way to go however…
My landlord’s adjustable rate mortgage is on its way to resetting soon. Oh boy, now the fun starts!
I expect we’ll be thrown out before we renew the lease. Fire sale time!
I am watching three neighborhoods in the West Sunrise/Tamarac area. Many of the homes were priced over $400k a year ago and are now in the very low $300’s. Since there have been dozens for sale for months, I expect them to get down to $250K before I start giving low-ball offers (near $200K). I figure by that time they’ll be really hungry and I’ll get a home for half the price from its peak.
Sarasota FLORIDA
Public can take Realtors’ trolley
“Team Gratton” has been doing trolley tours for about a year, taking Realtors around the area to show them listings.
Now they want to open it up to the general public.
“We’re just trying to spark some excitement in the market. Now is a buyer’s market. Why not allow the buyers to come out and enjoy a tour in air conditioning, and some refreshments,” said Priscilla Gratton, owner of Gratton Mortgage Group, which she and her twin sons, Brock and Blake, launched recently after they left AmSouth Mortgage.
Each month the tour will focus on different neighborhoods. This month, the tour features six homes in Siesta Key, priced from $650,000 to $2.9 million.
For more information, call 548-1100. The pickup will be at the Van Wezel parking lot on Wednesday at 1:30 p.m.
– Devona Walker
maybe they will get some homeless to ride the bus who get on at one end and off at the other. That is so thoughtful of those realtors - what a bunch of nice guys.
Is the FB population in Sarasota so brain dead they are not capable of driving themselves around to take a look at the local neighborhoods?
On second thought this makes complete sense since Sarasota used up the last of the FB’s who were capable of fogging a mirror in 2006. Its just the vegetables from this point.
And to think that when I was househunting in Tucson, I did much of the “legwork” on my bicycle. And that includes the summer months.
Who are these goofs who want to destroy the remaining keys with condo resorts and condo hotels? The state needs to ban all further building in the keys. Tourists don’t want to go to most of them, because there’s not much to do, but trying to turn them into resort areas, and changing all of this, should be criminal. The destruction of Key West by money interests should have served sufficient warning.
reminds me of when I met some northern friends in the keys for a vacation. they were amazed that there were no white sandy beaches. they asked me “what’s there to do around here?” and I said “fish, dive and drink.” they didn’t fish or dive so that left drinking.
“they were amazed that there were no white sandy beaches.”
LMAO, redfish! That was my first reaction many moons ago when I was a pup and has first moved to South Florida. Took a trip down to the Keys and stood there scratching my butt asking “Where da beaches?” Yep, the Keys are exactly as you say.
Same thing happened to me too!
Growing up in Pensacola with our sugar white sand beaches I was shocked when I visited the Keys for Spring Break while in University (buddy of mine’s grandparents owned a house on Duck Key).
Long story short it was warmer than Pensacola Beach in mid-March but the beaches sucked i.e. there weren’t any. Not too many young girls either if you know what I mean. I had expected a string of islands with sugar white sand like Pensacola Beach loaded with babes. LOL.
We did do some pretty good fishing and diving and drank for free with my buddy’s grandfather and his cronies for free but overall it was more than a bit disapointing.
One thing, though. If you can take a boat out in the shallows, the swimming and snorkelling is a real treat. I haven’t been to the Keys in years, but there used to be a narrow strip of beach at Bahia Honda that wasn’t too bad. The Key West beaches, such as they were, usually had tons of stinking, flea ridden seagrass.
Yup. I first drove down to Key West about ten years ago, with some similarly ignorant friends from out of state. I thought parts of the island were going to be like a miniature Daytona or Pass-a-Grille or Panama City Beach or Longboat Key, and brought a football to throw around. When we got there my first reaction to the “beach” was “you’ve got to be f_____g kidding.”
We ended up visiting Ernest Hemingway’s house, after tying one on first. Judging by the condition of the other visitors, we weren’t the only ones who’d chosen to precede the tour with multiple alcoholic beverages.
“We did do some pretty good fishing and diving and drank for free with my buddy’s grandfather and his cronies for free but overall it was more than a bit disapointing.”
That’s a pretty paradoxical statement! I can’t possibly imagine being disappointed with fishing, diving, and drinking - especially when the drinks are free!
Well, come on guys, that’s a bit of an exaggeration don’t ya think? There’s not much beach, but there’s a few. How about Bahia Honda?
I just left Higgs Beach in Key West 2 hours ago and stopped by the library to check my mail and surf a couple of hours (web surf….no waves here in KW).
But yes, it’s really just a bunch of reefs….which makes for the clear waters for divers. You want beach go to Siesta Key.
I will try to report back on the Keys action before I leave here, which will probably be on Saturday.
Lot’s of stuff for sale. Lots of new stuff in completion phases or stopping. One “shed” for sale on the island for about $380k. Get Real!
Have a nice housing bubble day.
-Diogenes.
People complaining about their property taxes need to remember the property tax is a tax on wealth, and if they have a house worth $600,000 they are supposed to be wealthy. Of course, the house isn’t actually worth $600,000.
You have hit on one of the downsides to encouraging low income people to buy “the house of their dreams” which they truly cannot afford. This is why I expect commercial real estate (which depends heavily on consumption spending) to suffer in many of the newly built McMansion tract home areas of California — too many homeowners will find they cannot afford to go to Starbucks after forking out PITI.
Florida off topic-A little social commentary on the state of the real estate world. As we all know a large portion of the sales force in real estate is made up of divorced women in their 40-50’s. I have two friends who are in this category.
A few years ago it was “I am woman, hear me roar”. Now the girls tell me they are on Match.com looking for a husband with a “real” job. I suspect this is happening alot and those guys who had some relief in the alimony dept. are back on the hook.
The youngsters will split up over lack of money and the older folks, like me, will huddle together like chimps in the rain. We are going t see a lot of social change in the next few years. High end restaurants that were gathering places will fold by the thousands, statewide. Steinmart will boom. Used car sales will skyrocket and mechanics will be buried in work.
Maid services will be a thing of the past. Already occurring. Booze sales are climbing out. Tire sales up. Oil change places busy. Carwash business is way down. Hose sales up. Landscapers tanking. Sod sales…..none. Travel down. One way truck rental north….way up.
Mental health professionals and marriage counselors…..booming. Church attendance up. Donations down. Groceries-high end protein products down and starch sales up. Bottled water sales tanking. Home water usage up. Electrical usage per household up.(staying home cooking)
Neighbors are out in the street talking about market and getting to know each other.
I am not so sure this is all bad. I think we needed it.
Wow, dime, I really enjoy your observations on this. I also like the Vietnam war analogy. Even more interesting, today’s real estate market seems to be running parallel to the Iraq war. Right down to the futile “surge”. I mean no disrespect to the troops, in fact I get sick to my stomach wondering if this is what they are fighting for, a country invaded and dicated to by illegals, run by whores for banking and business interests. In my search for an apartment, I stumbled across a brand new apartment complex, complete with clubhouse and swimming pool, subsidized by the Farm Bureau, where the only residents who may live there must have part of their income from agriculture. What about returning Iraq veterans who can’t find decent, inexpensive housing?
“Church attendance up.”
This drives me crazy. I know some FB’s that are doing some “soul searching” right now. This bubble nonsense is another bump in my skepticism of mankind in general. Why can’t everybody just chill out?
Have you ever actually thought about what you would do with a million dollars? Chances are, anything meaningful can be done with a few weeks of careful planning, a few days off, and a couple of Ben’s (no pun meant). I see this guy around St. Pete Beach that drives a Ferrari AND wears a Ferrari hat (just see there is no misunderstanding). I guess it never occurs to this guy that we’re eating at the same damn restaurant and parked in the same freakin’ lot.
He’s probably driving around today “looking for the truth.” No doubt with his hat on.
Remindes me of a comment my ol’ man made in response to my last car purchase (a VW) eight years ago when I said “next time, I’m getting a Porsche!”
“Porsche or VW, it doesn’t really matter, because it is just hauling your a** back and forth to work every day.”
Never wanted a Porsche after that, and the VW is still going strong.
That should have been me. Bot on Madeira Bch in March 2000 at 160k just before I met my future wife who had job in Sac, CA.We moved to SAC. Sold in Sept 2000 for 200k. The place is now going for 500k. Moving to Boca next week. Renting house.
Bury a St. Christopher statue upside down along with your upside-down mortgage. Hallelujah!
That would be St. Joseph. St. Christopher is the patron of travellers.
He wants the house to just leave.
Dime-dropped, do you have any proof of the things you say above (07:53:11) ? I don’t notice anything like this in, pardon the expression, South Tampa; quite the reverse. Spending like there’s no tomorrow, which may be prophetic. As for high-end protein products, since most have double in price in the past several years (thanks to the Atkins fad), people probably should cut way back. Who needs all that protein, and what kidneys can endure it?
I think it interesting that almost nothing on my grocery list is counted by the government when computing inflation. I guess cleaning products and paper towels might qualify. For the Feds to claim inflation is low is simply amazing. All of my bills, especially the grocery one, have gone way up.
I also still see spending like there is no tomorrow as well. Yes inflation is out of control right now as you also said.
“excluding the volitile food and energy prices…”
Great, so if we starve while sitting cold (hot) in the dark inflation is no problem….. Sure seems reasonable for the price of freshly cut grass nowadays.
Dime — whether observation or forecast or some of each, nice post.
DD~
A few years ago it was “I am woman, hear me roar”. Now the girls tell me they are on Match.com looking for a husband with a “real” job. I suspect this is happening alot and those guys who had some relief in the alimony dept. are back on the hook.
You are so right on for this one!!!
Divorced women also the largest segment of purchasers in the last 4 years.
hehehe…hear me roar….LMAO…they’re like totally trashed.
Beautiful and pretty cougars are fabulous, regardless of ill conceive career move!
“All cats are grey in the dark”. Ben Franklin
A lot of this is verified. We use a lot of sources in writing reports for lenders. I will share a few knick knacks about the trade.
1: to find out about occupancy in homes look for oil stains in driveways….if you see a lot of stains and heavy ones in a nice new area….prime candidate for foreclosure….not maintaining vehicles is a key.
2: Yard maintenance poor. Sign of tight money.
3: In commercial see how far out in the parking lot oil stains go. Further out the busier.
4: Count trash bins on street Tuesday and Friday. Tells occupancy.
5: Count spinning meters in multifamily.
6: For neighborhoods we actually visit the produce department. It tells volumes about economic strata and diversity.
7: While lenders say they do not redline there are zips that reflect a different story. The gov tracks by census tract.
8: The internet is a wonderful tool to find any information you need about a project as websites tell the real story. If there is no project info on a website chances are the developer has begun huge promotional giveaways and does not want lenders and appraisers to know about it.
9: Look at vehicles in neighborhood to establish age distribution.
10: Same thing as above by counting bicycles.
11: SUV”S = Kids
12: As for gauging homes occupied. If you see mini blinds in every window it is probably builder installed. If they remain closed nad are all closed. Unoccupied.
13: Best time to judge occupancy of condo. Sunday night between 7-10 pm. No lights do the math. Houses too.
14: Count cars in lot predawn for condos. Also note that an out of state tag is probably an owner. New move.
15: Low rate of rental of storage units means low demand and outmigration. Also one of the first things to go during tight money.
16: Lots of garage sales in area means streamlining and need for money. It also preceeds move out many times.
17: Good sources of information are clerks at various stores. The first sign of construction slowdown for us was huge drop in sales in convenience stores in areas of high growth. These guys drink and eat all day using local convenience stores as wel as buy a lot of fuel for commutes.
So I guess the answer is most is verified but some is just based on past experience. This is my 4th real estate ass whppin and it will be the worst by far.
Your posts are really rocking today. I tend to agree with Incredulous that in south Tampa materialism continues unabated, but I strongly suspect that each of your forecasts will be bourne out, even here, eventually.
As for #1 - could just be the owner of a fine American made car, plus a quart of oil every month is a lot cheaper than a car payment. Or they could own a Harley.
skip-that guy will have a pan under the car. If he is a harley driver it won’t be sittin outside. I got an old one myself.
DimeDropped, those are excellent observations. In today’s WSJ they mentioned another (to me) unusual way to gauge the health of the economy: money transfers to Mexico. It turns out they calculate every immigrant sends about 1K per month. They have seen a reduction of 600M in transfers to Mexico, which adds up to about 600K people who have not been able to send money home. I would venture that many of those work in construction and can’t report being unemployed.So, checking how much money people have left over to send overseas seems to be a very telling piece of info.
I should correct myself, the 1K per month per immigrant is an average.
Very impressive DD.
Thanks!
Pensacola, Florida
… Increase in need for foster parents, adoption services, etc.
The social and economic ripple effects will be far and wide. Many of us on the sidelines will be affected, as much as we would like to just be spectators.
give us data to back it up
“‘There’s so much speculative activity, banks are so overworked they’re too overwhelmed to even analyze it well,’ McCabe said. ‘It’s not until things slow down that it becomes apparent.’”
“You don’t know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out”
– Warren Buffett –
“Wasting away again in Margaritaville.”
- Jimmy Buffett -
The forecast for this season, unlike last year, is a higher risk thannormal for hurricanes. Things could get interesting by the time we have $4.00 gas and hurricanes on the horizon.
Forecasters (including meteorologists and fake psychics) always say the current hurricane season is going to be terrible, and worse than the last. Last season they said hurricanes were going to be WAY MORE numerous, not less so, than the year before. When it didn’t happen, they peddled backward and made excuses. After every big storm like Katrina, they all jump on the bandwagon predicting even worse disasters, hoping to bask in fame. It gets tired after a while. I think there are lots of people who love the idea of hurricanes and other disasters, but if they ever lived through one, they might not treat them like video game entertainments. To these people, here’s a clue: a real disaster isn’t anything like the ones shown in movies, and those little pictures on television (even big screen television) don’t even scrape the surface.
“Forecasters (including meteorologists and fake psychics) always say the current hurricane season is going to be terrible, and worse than the last.”
That’s right. I’ll start to worry if they tell me it will be a quiet year.
You won’t get any press coverage if you say that
“You won’t get any press coverage if you say that”
Am I the only one that remembers in 2003 they were talking about the worst season in 25 years? Nothing. 2004 they called for a “slightly” above average year. BAM.
I wish I got paid to be wrong 90% of the time.
So true - as a westerner, I had no clue what hurricanes were about until visiting friends in Miami when one struck. They had a pony, which spent the duration in the house with us. Very scary, lots of big palm trees in the streets, water everywhere, stuck there for days. Anyone who lives in a hurricane zone is either in denial or nuts, IMHO.
“Anyone who lives in a hurricane zone is either in denial or nuts, IMHO.”
I’m a little of both. What does that have to do with anything?
“We’re just at the very beginning of chopping down these twin towers”
Bad analogy… Chuck.
He meant like “Lord of the Rings”. He saw it with his gay lover over the weekend.
Those Elves are a little light in the loafers. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
The Bosotn Globe says the worst is over. Come out of your bunkers. The distortion of statistics is on. The Globe and other papers have too much money in home advertisement to go with the bubble story.
Reports predict improving housing market
Two reports issued today give hope to Massachusetts home sellers.
The price of a Massachusetts single family home rose 0.1 percent in March, welcome news for home sellers after a year-to-year price drop of 4.1 percent in February, according to a new report from the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.
The Globe and other papers have too much money in home advertisement to go with the bubble story.
The real estate advertising section was bigger than the entire rest of this Sunday’s edition.
It’s the developer’s and sub-prime ARM crowd who are in deep doo-doo.
The greatest Gen and older boomers who bought cheap 25 to 50 years ago are still coastin’.
I’m getting sick and tired of all these owners saying how they were partially responsible for the outcome of their poor investment decisions, but that the lenders should not have approved their loans based on their incomes. Funny how when real estate is hot we feel smug about our smart business sense but once things sour then it’s everyone else’s fault.
“While I may be responsible for the accident at this intersection, the city should never have allowed me to go through that red light.”
Last year was a bad year.
This year will make last year look like a good year.
Didn’t this Archer guy from UF come out with a study a couple of months ago that called a bottom in Florida, to be followed by years of pleasant appreciation? I seem to recall it being discussed on this blog.
Sounds like Mr. Archer already may be in backtracking mode. His next sound bite probably will contain the word “surprised.”
‘There are appraisers who will pretty much appraise a house for anything,’ said Cindy Franklin, of the Lee County Property Appraiser’s Office
Whoowee, now here’s an astute, timely revelation, LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!
‘There are appraisers who will pretty much appraise a house for anything,’
They say of grand juries that it is easy to get an indictment, they’d indict a ham sandwich. Well, appraisers will appraise a ham sandwich and mortgage brokers will approve a ham sandwich. That’s after you’ve gotten a hand sandwich from the realtors.