The Consummation Is Not There
The Denver Post reports from Colorado. “In metro Denver, home resales were down 3 percent in March from the same period a year ago. The median price of single- family homes also fell 3 percent as foreclosures pushed down home values. ‘People’s interest in wanting to do something has gotten stronger,’ said Broker Duane Whisler. Still, he said: ‘The consummation is not there.’”
“Whisler said he worked with a client wanting to sell in the Club Crest neighborhood of Arvada. Of the 29 homes recently listed there, 13 were foreclosures that were priced below the owner-occupied homes.”
“‘People were ready to say the housing market had turned the corner. If you look closely at the numbers, it didn’t happen,’ said Michael Kone, an analyst in Boulder.”
From ABC News. “One out of five houses in Denver’s Montbello neighborhood is in foreclosure, so community activists are out knocking on doors trying to help homeowners before they lose their homes.”
“Evan Elliott lost the home he grew up in after the monthly payment on his adjustable-rate mortgage went up by $600. ‘I was ripped off,’ Elliott said. ‘They weren’t worried about me, they didn’t care. And I talked to them and they told me that’s what the terms were and there’s nothing really I could do about it.’”
The Greeen Valley News from Arizona. “Long Companies CEO Rosey Koberlein says sales in the Tucson-area market are down 17 percent from March 2006 to March this year.”
“Lynn Robinson, branch manager for the Green Valley and Sahuarita branch of Long Realty, has sold homes in here for 28 years. She said she sees more homes on the market, but added the numbers don’t necessarily represent reality, either.”
“‘Some people will say, ‘If I can get what my neighbor did in 2005, then I’ll sell,’ and that is simply not realistic,’ Robinson said.”
The Arizona Daily Star. “Pulte Homes has pulled out of a proposed Anthem housing development in Benson, citing the weak national housing market.”
“‘Right now is not the time for us to be making that type of investment,’ Pulte spokeswoman Jacque Petroulakis said. ‘We need to be focused on our current offerings.’”
“By dropping the plans for Anthem at Whetstone Ranch, Pulte Homes walked away from a ’substantial’ investment in planning the community and purchasing an option to buy the land, said Tucson lawyer Pat Lopez. Projected prices ranged from about $120,000 up to $500,000, according to minutes from a Benson public meeting.”
“R.L. Brown, a longtime Phoenix housing-market analyst, said he is not surprised at Pulte’s decision, because market conditions have worsened since this and other projects were planned. Every builder is reviewing its projects, and many have been put on hold, Brown said.”
The Arizona Republic. “Developers showed up, some with checks in hand, but none bid Tuesday on 125 acres of prime state trust land in the Scottsdale Airpark area. The Arizona State Land Department was seeking a minimum bid of $549,000 per acre, or $68.5 million, for a 99-yearlease of the land.”
“Department officials still hope to get that price or more at the rescheduled auction on May 24. ‘We’re disappointed, but we’ll get it done and set a record a month from now,’ State Land Commissioner Mark Winkleman said.”
The Daily Courier from Arizona. “The construction business of former Arizona Senate candidate Elise Townsend of Paulden filed for bankruptcy this week, three months after the Arizona Registrar of Contractors revoked its license.”
“Townsend filed the bankruptcy for her Pres-cott-based business just one day before her major lender planned to auction off 1,120 vacant acres she owned in southern Arizona because she hadn’t made any payments in recent months.”
“Townsend said she went from selling 151 homes in 2005 to fewer than a dozen this past year. She’s stuck with 37 she can’t sell right now. At least a half-dozen are not finished and the values have dropped 20 percent to 30 percent. ‘This isn’t just a Townsend problem, it’s a national problem,’ Townsend said.”
“The bankruptcy filing lists at least 72 mostly unnamed individual investors, including some who were local residents.”
“‘It’s kind of got me devastated,’ said Dixie Northcott from Dewey. She invested $200,000 of her savings in one of the homes that Townsend was building in the Park Ridge area of north Prescott Valley. She said she also agreed to a $50,000 temporary loan that Townsend never paid back.”
The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “Las Vegas homebuilder Jim Rhodes has suspended his large-scale development in Mohave County, a company representative confirmed.”
“Rhodes has pulled work crews from his Pravada development in Golden Valley southwest of Kingman, where he has plans approved to build more than 32,000 homes on about 5,750 acres.”
“‘We haven’t really shut down,’ said Lisa Urias, a spokeswoman for the company. ‘We are basically just pulling back because it’s taking a long time and he’s working on a couple of other developments right now in Nevada. It’s a business decision that he’s made to allocate his resources in the areas that are ready for development.’”
“Rhodes became the most influential developer in the East Valley in December when he was the successful bidder on more than 1,000 acres of critically situated state trust land in Apache Junction.”
“The Mohave County Board of Supervisors approved general plan amendments for four Rhodes developments in December 2005. But his plans to build more than 130,000 new homes there have stalled because the Arizona Corporation Commission has yet to issue a certificate to operate a water and sewer company that would serve his development in Golden Valley.”
“Supervisor Buster Johnson said he also has been contacted by several real estate agents chastising him for the treatment Rhodes has gotten in the county. Todd Tarson, past president of the Kingman-Golden Valley Association of Realtors, defended Rhodes in an electronic posting on his newsletter.”
“Supervisor Pete Byers said he is skeptical of warnings from the agents that Rhodes could abandon his developments if he does not get better treatment from elected officials. Byers added the slump in the Mohave County housing market might also be a factor in Rhodes’ decisions to put his plans there on hold.”
“Evan Elliott lost the home he grew up in after the monthly payment on his adjustable-rate mortgage went up by $600. ‘I was ripped off,’ Elliott said. ‘They weren’t worried about me, they didn’t care. And I talked to them and they told me that’s what the terms were and there’s nothing really I could do about it.’”
I don’t even know where to begin with this one!!!
Since when does a bank owe it to you to let you live in a house that you can’t afford?? The self-righteousness astounds me, which is hard to do. OWNING A HOUSE IS NOT A RIGHT! Christ, look at the number of homeless in this country…even having a place to rest your head isn’t.
That’s it, I cave…I’m going to go buy a mansion in Beverly Hills and default so that Prop 1C can pay my mortgage for me.
If this is the home Evan grew up in, then he re-fied at least once, and for how much–the reporter doesn’t mention that little factoid.
And how did little Evan spend all that cash he took from his housing ATM? Count on the reporter not to even ask.
And this is ABC news, a national news outlet…and the reporter couldn’t make the cut on a high school newspaper.
As for Elliott, just consider that this jackass has the right to vote.
I’m beginning to think the reporters are stupider than than the “victims” — wha the heck did our little victim spend his refi on?
You can’t expect that reporter to ask him something like that! It would hurt Evan’s feelings!
amen, Spike. That’s always the glaring omission in these tv/newspaper articles: what happened to the money? If it was used to help his sick mother or something like that, I’m sure it would have made it into the story in order to garnish more sympathy for that person. Did they even bother to ask, or did the guys response not figure into the mood of the piece?
“And how did little Evan spend all that cash he took from his housing ATM? Count on the reporter not to even ask.”
Speaking of which, I happen to be an attorney. Today a co-worker came up to me and asked “Do you think it’s a good idea to max out my HELOC to pay off my brother’s auto loan? I need more of a tax deduction.”
Evan’s poor parents probably worked hard, all their lives, for that house. They probably died happy, thinking, “Gee, at least our dumb little Evan has a place to live, and won’t wind up in a cardboard box!” Now they’re rolling over in their graves. Sheesh.
What Evan does not realize is that he pre-sold his house. He took the money for the refi - that’s the sale, the bank let him rent for a while, and now the bank is moving in and lastly little Evan needs to move out.
Makes you think twice why in the 1700’s and early 1800’s only property OWNERS could vote.
The bank owes it to themselves not to give you a loan you cannot payback.
The bank owes it to the community it serves not to rape and bleed it’s customers out of greed.
If a business does things that not in the interest of the community it serves, it is acting unethically.
However, as a consumer, I must assume that the bank is acting unethically and protect myself.
This is exactly why I have no sympathy for anyone in this housing mess.
But banks don’t exist to promote ethics, they exist to make money. If you walk in for a loan without knowing at least that much, you deserve what you get.
A fool and his house are soon parted.
I think people here are making a lot of assumptions. It may be that he did refi but maybe he didn’t. He may have bought the family home. My mom owns 2 houses and she sure as hell isn’t giving me one (not that I would expect that anyway) And If I did buy one of her houses she would make me pay top dollar.
Are you sure that Wickedheart does not apply to your mom?
heheheheheheheh, yeah it pretty much does but she still doesn’t owe me a house.
If he had to pay top dollar then he shouldn’t have bought it. Either way, it’s his fault.
From ABC News. “One out of five houses in Denver’s Montbello neighborhood is in foreclosure, so community activists are out knocking on doors trying to help homeowners before they lose their homes.”
That is unbelievable. I feel for whomever is left in that neighborhood
They should have a moving truck as they go door-to-door, at least saving the FB who is foreclosed some moving expense.
The Arizona State Land Department was seeking a minimum bid of $549,000 per acre, or $68.5 million, for a 99-yearlease of the land.”
What happens once the lease is up???
I was wondering the same thing!
Time to fork over more money for another lease or get your @ss out I guess.
Jack up the house, get an oversize tractor-trailer, and find a new piece of ground:)…
If it is property on or near an airport, typically you cannot “buy” the property. The airport authority will typically sign a long term lease on the land and/or structure, and lease it out for 20 years/30 years/etc……..the rationale being that they don’t want prime airport real estate sitting idle for months or years, if the property is tied up by bankruptcy of the airport tenant.
“Developers showed up, some with checks in hand, but none bid Tuesday on 125 acres of prime state trust land in the Scottsdale Airpark area. The Arizona State Land Department was seeking a minimum bid of $549,000 per acre, or $68.5 million, for a 99-yearlease of the land.”
This is so outrageously stupid, I am surprised anyone even showed up.
Can we pay at the END of the lease?
You’ll be dead by then, so you it will be someone else’s problem.
Well, let’s see if history is any guide.
There’s the entire State of Connecticut which was leased for 200 years from the native Americans. After the 200 year period was up (which was just a couple years ago) our government told them to f*ck off. No explanation was given.
Then there’s Hong Kong — which the Brits did give back to the Chinese.
I think the answer is force majeur. Which in this case means the state wins.
I think Santyana, “Those who failt to learn from history…” would be proud of you SohoNYC. I went immediately to the history books to find out what happens. Here, here!
Meant to say, “You” went to the history books.
“There’s the entire State of Connecticut which was leased for 200 years from the native Americans. After the 200 year period was up (which was just a couple years ago) our government told them to f*ck off.”
Interesting. I had no idea. But I’ll bet some sort of deal was struck involving casinos.
Who cares? By then we’ll all be dead and it will be someone else’s problem.
See also: Social Security, Medicare.
Well Sleepless, you know the old saying,
“Put off today what you can do tomorrow because you just might die and someone else will have to do it.”
Awesome, that’s fits in well with my strategy of striving for mediocrity. Any more and people actually expect results!
You crack me up. Almost spilled the Coke on the computer. Hey, there is nothing wrong with striving for mediocrity. Considering we are a service oriented nation and most everyone wants bling without the work, mediocrity is the new hard work, so if that is where you are at, you will be fine. Besides, in this day and age, what you and I think as mediocre is actually great to the rest of the nation. Remember, superficiality rules in this country. Shallowness, lazinees, no depth or intellect is king. So, if you are mediocre, you are in good shape. Now, if you suck, that is a whole ‘nother story. As for great, that is so unattainable by standards of 50 years ago, I won’t even go there. I am still looking for the next Beethoven or Bach, but all I seem to get is American Idol. What crap. Give me Ludwig’s 5th, 7th, or 9th anyday. And just so you don’t think I am all about classical, where is the next Pink Floyd, Yes, Moody Blues, Led Zep, or even ELO for cryin’ out loud. Def. talent drain in this world.
Find another FOOL!
Just curious, what’s the Montbello neighborhood like out there?
“Students at North, West, Montbello and Abraham Lincoln are ranked among the lowest in the city for predicted growth on state assessment tests.” [Source: http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_5311586
“Gangs’ reach runs deep at Montbello” [Source: http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_3916441
“Few schools in Denver have been saddled with a reputation as bad as Montbello’s. “Mont-ghetto,” as students once called it, was the scene of the first homicide in Denver Public Schools’ history.” [Source: http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/education/article/0,1299,DRMN_957_5487628,00.html
Hmm, I guess I’ll hold off plans on moving there with my wife and kid.
In high school we played football against Monbello. The field hadn’t been watered in over a year and it was full of rocks and shards of glass. We beat their team hands down mostly because they didn’t even have a coach.
This is the good part…
After we beat them the few students AND PARENTS that showed up began throwing rocks and glass bottles at us as we walked to our bus. After glass bottles started raining doen on us we ran to the bus. The Monbello people they tried to grab a couple of the slower guys and start fights. We were all able to get out but not before 20-30 bottles broke on the bus while we were sitting in it.
The best part about it all was as we were driving off our running back ran to the back of the bus and mooned all the Montbello players, students, and parents.
Long story short Monbello sucks.
now you know where all the glass on the field came from….
the team loses a lot….
mooned them, my ass….
funny story, thanks, made my day
I feel for the poor bastard whose job it is to knock on doors.
Experience for their next career in selling magazines.
Cruel, but funny!
I learned long ago, never to buy a magazine subscription from a door to door type. The money goes right into their pocket.
you had to learn that? i would have figured that to be genetically encoded knowledge
Actually, it’s not. In life, we learn from our mistakes. As a child, I purchased a Sports Illustrated subscription from a beautiful young woman who turned out to be a grifter. I was young and impressionable, a human being.
Of course, you would not understand such trivial matters, as your “genetic encoding” guides you through a life of perfection.
Want to hear something funny. Knew a guy in college who used to send in those free 1-month subscriptions to SI or The Sporting News using the name Larry Bird or Pete Rose. Also, he would also sign up other guys from college using those Army or Navy interest cards. Funny as He11!
““Evan Elliott lost the home he grew up in after the monthly payment on his adjustable-rate mortgage went up by $600. ‘I was ripped off,’ Elliott said.”
How did he end up in an adjustable mortgage in the home “he grew up in”. I have a better theory than “I was ripped off” - how about, “I was stupid.”
He probably refinanced into the loan when rates were low and now rates are up and he’s crying the blues. Time to live with the parents again.
The guy lost his house, doesn’t matter what he says. The end.
Next.
With all these bad stories about people losing their houses, I’m starting to think there’s some kind of slow down in the ongoing housing boom….
He’s eight years old. They forgot to mention this in the article.
LOL
crack me up, too funny…
A guy I know who purchased a golf-course lot home in the Seville community in SE Gilbert for over $800K last year just put it up for sale for a cool $900K+ (obviously he was hoping to flip it for a profit all along). He has a $650K 5/1 ARM. I think he finally realized that he had better get out now. What he doesn’t realize is that the easy money is long gone.
He did put 20% down, so he’s got some breathing room, but the fact that he started out at so high a price leads me to believe he still doesn’t understand the magnitude of this bust. He’s gonna have to lop off at least another $300K to even get a bite, IMO. In six months, it’ll be even worse.
He is screwed. He better be prepared to lose the 20% at this point.900k in gilbert, give me a break.Just shows how stupid people have gotten lately.
He sold his house last year and made a HUGE windfall - probably around $200,000. Of course, being the gambler he is, he bet it all on black. C’est la vie!
Serious question:
Can the fed create money fast enough to replace destroyed “equity”? I seriously believe inflation would get too far out of hand too fast; we’re past the point of no return.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Deflation Neil.
Unless it shows up as income in the hands of Joepublic then it only goes in to the investment banks who make loans. Since the debt level is already bad then people with assets will be afraid of losing them with more debt.
Deflation looks to be near at hand.
I posted a response about this in Chuck Ponzi’s blog.
I really didn’t understand what happens in the liquidity trap. In a nut shell what we will be seeing is people going under do to debt. As people are already burdened, the survivors will be hurting with debts they already have. They will not be spending.
Buisnesses will see a slowdown and will worry about their debt load. So, they will not be looking to increase debt but to stay afloat by minimizing expenditures and maximizing margins.
We are all feeling the beginings of this now. We are seeing people with debt losing there homes. Probably their fancy cars.
Meanwhile prices are climbing but its not showing up in our paychecks. So we start to conserve our resources and are weary of taking on new debts.
20% down is nice but when you are looking at potential income hits you DO NOT BUY. Early we looked and said the subprime collapse will force larger downpayments. however the larger effect will be people losing jobs as activity slows.
There isn’t a way out. So many American companies are in their death throws. Ford, GM, Chrysler all over burdened with debt. So, where are all the jobs going to come from? People will need jobs and positive economic output to stay employed. It will be a long while for companies to reform and organize here.
I really didn’t understand what CH Smith was talking about when he said people lose their appetite for debt in the deflationary scenario. That is it. Basically, no mater how low the terms are people will identify debt as a way of getting hurt.
Seems like it is here. Deflation.
Excellent post and i think you are definitely on the mark when you discuss “potential income hits” which ought to occur ultimately through unemployment or increasing underemployment going forward. That is exactly part of the deflationery stone rolling down hill attracting new stones on the way down and for the most part this hasn’t really been discussed or acknowledged much. Another observation i have and am seeing is that as these stockmarkets keep going higher and higher there seems to be a whole lot of (junior type gold/ oil/ uranium) stocks going lower and lower which indicates perhaps a declining appetite for risk is developing in the great stock market mania.
A couple of years ago, there was some speculation here on what the flippers would DO with all the money that they’d made. It looks like my prediction was right: double down until they’re broke.
It’s a new paradigm: the Get Poor Quick scheme.
You are probably right that eventually the property will be valued at 300k less. But he might get lucky and sell to an even greater fool.
Sweet Geezuz did he EVER get screwed. That bonehead just threw away 1/2 mil. What golf course?
Seville Golf and Country Club
http://www.trilogygolfclub.com/seville_gcc/
This development is about five miles west of Queen Creek. It’s flipper heaven (or hell).
Ouch. He’s never going to get his money back. I’ve seen custom homes backing the Ocotillo golf course selling for less than a million lately.
BTW, his P&I alone is around $4500/month. He doesn’t have a steady job - he scours car auctions and charges people finder’s fees for them and supplements that income as a day trader and real estate investor. In short, look for him in the poor house in 2008.
MLS # is 2749018 if anyone is interested in helping him out!
Toast, that’s just cold.
I have been seeing this all over Southern Arizona in my travels. Green Valley has these huge southern extension and 500,000 dollars homes built and they ain’t moving. The 125,000-80,000 “Casitas” seem to move but slowly too.
Expect a large 30% drop in home values over the next several years.
Spare money going into tools, silver, small farm land and basic 1930’s survival gear.
Only 30%? You, my friend, are an optimist.
AZ Cowboy, maybe I an being optimistic but I am an American. Never experience the 1930’s on my skin but maybe soon.
Expecting more??….or the deluge perhaps….it will be a crash…sometimes orderly….a lot of times not.
Probably will depend on where we live. Being in the middle of a desert with 800K house that is probably worth 550K now and going down quickly will cause a few mental breakdowns.
As Neil says, once we get back to 25% down min. for the worst of borrowers and 10-15% for the best , this whole economy will be toast. Couple that with increasing inventory and homes that are still unaffordable except for Gates and Buffet and voila, you have the perfect storm. Right now the forecasters are starting to get it a little, but by Christmas, well, let’s just say Christmas will be like Halloween, a lot of candy and nothing else. Ever hear of a candy Christmas?
The fed can pump all the green toilet paper it wants, at some point the Chindians will say enough and flee the dollar. I don’t care about the US never defaulting. There is a first time for everything and eventually the rest of the world will finally realize what our economy really is, A FREAKIN’ GIANT PONZI SCHEME, BUBBLE AFTER BUBBLE.
In the mean time, sit back and enjoy the flight or the show. Neil will make the popcorn.
I’m hoping to do the survival thing too, but it will take me a couple years. Had to get out of the city first.
Ya’ll kill me with that survival thing. You think it will be fun? Like a movie? You will reclaim your manhood or something?
Let me see… Camping out every day for the rest of your life. No decent medical care. Various diseases. Gunshot wound that would be nothing becomes a painful lingering death.
You ever been in the military? Do you realize how bad it will be. You better hope not because surviving is all that you will be doing.
I think when most of speak of the survival/worst case on this blog, we don’t mean Mad Max, but rather 3rd or 4th world country status. In other words, high unemployment, massive/tons of corruption, no middle class, no real productive industries, and no way to move out the economic class you are in. Hey, that sounds a lot like the US today…
Still tickles me. I worked on a farm, have raised sheep, backpacked, bucked hay bails, Military blah blah. Farm work is killer work.
Not many people in this country could survive it. All the Mexicans could cut it. A little ole Mexican man, or Asian, can work most white men into the ground. Gym muscles aren’t work muscles.
If it goes that bad you will be overun. You really up to killing someone over a patch of wilty carrots?
Well if it gets to that, I think we are talking about Mad Max. Also, if it wasn’t for the greed of people we wouldn’t even be worrying about doom and gloom, but since man can’t seem to get along with one another, or without screwing one another over, it seems we might be headed for this scenario. Of course, if NAR is right we are running out of land. I guess in that case we better start thinning the herd, building bases on the moon, or killing each other for the available land.
The real fun is going to begin when the peak-oil down cycle starts, when max oil production starts to fall and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Mad Max might not be too far off because in Mad Max 2 they were fighting over gasoline.
You guys ever hear of cooperative farming, communites, and people who work together? that was here just a generation ago, with our parents (or grandparents), who had very little and made do. Sure, there are lots more people etc., and I can’t vouch for the cities, but lots of us could survive - I camp out a lot, know which plants are edible, etc., but there’s a lot more to it than that, it would take lots of cooperation and sharing of tools, etc.
I think we’ll see more of a third-world scenario than Mad Max. Sorry to disappoint the militionists out there…
No Mad Max scenarios in my mind but major defaults, abandonments and dislocations when the several bubbles of overloaned new McMansions, Humvee Economy, Fiat paper money/credit and Peak Oil collide.
As one of our gentlemen like to opine.
Make some popcorn.
Best right now to be liquid, no consumer debt and thinking about a smaller house with contiguous land for gardens and similar like-minded small town people in a rural farming area.
Think about stuff like if natural gas is disrupted, occasional blackouts, iffy fuel deliveries and you Big Box only carrying a fraction of the inventory you are used to.
Can you sew, cook, garden….is the area good for that? Are there other like you.
Be aware that the chimera of living from 1960-2007 is going AWAY.
‘The consummation is not there.’
Does this mean there will be no more FBs?
From Merriam-Webster:
consummate
One entry found for consummate.
Main Entry: 2con·sum·mate
Pronunciation: ‘kän(t)-s&-”mAt
Function: verb
Inflected Form(s): -mat·ed; -mat·ing
transitive verb
1 a : FINISH, COMPLETE b : to make perfect c : ACHIEVE
2 : to make (marital union) complete by sexual intercourse
intransitive verb : to become perfected
Hey there has been plenty of consumation going on in recent years, hence FB’s
I still say that if you were able to link Erectile Dysfuction to adjustable mortgages and stated incomes, we’d have a whole lot less FBs.
Hey there has been plenty of consumation going on in recent years, hence FB’s …
yes, tell them that there just looking at the wrong door….
check rear entrance
Pulte spokeswoman Jacque Petroulakis said. ‘We need to be focused on our current offerings.’
Are Pulte executives sacrificing children to Ba’al now?
You’re killing me
LOL. Hey, Toast, what is your take on Tucson. I like the town and would like to buy a house there (to live in!!!). Advice?
I’m not Toast, but here’s my advice - bring your own water.
The following is from a Bloomberg article posted on another housing bubble site.
“The FBI targets what it calls fraud for profit,” which is related to conspirators who lie to get multiple mortgages and have no intention of repaying them, said Special Agent Stephen Kodak… “Individuals lying about their income to buy a house they intend to live in, or ‘fraud for housing,’ occurs more often but accounts for less money lost,” Kodak said. The FBI generally does not go after fraud for housing,” he said.
Dang, too bad homeless advocates around the country didn’t know about this while 100% financing was still available. They could have gotten every one of their “clients” into nice housing for free, at least for the better part of a year.
Pop quiz: Why would homeless advocates not want to do this?
“The FBI generally does not go after fraud for housing,’’ he said.”
The FBI, being clueless, probably does not have an idea of the magnitude of the fraud involved nationally.
“The FBI targets what it calls fraud for profit,’’
Not to be confused with the type of fraud wherein the victim benefits at the expense of the perpetrator.
technically since the bubble started “losing air” these fraudsters have not actually seen a profit.
I wish I jumped on that bandwagon. Exactly how many loans and how much money could be taken out before no one cares about what you were doing?
Sometimes it makes you wonder if maybe we should have all just got in on it. Heck, buy a 500K house for 800K. Get the 300K back and buy somewhere real cheap and far from where you live. It could be like the FB protection program. I mean by the time anyone actually catches up to you, if they ever do find me, er I mean you , greeting people at the local Stuff-mart in Skunk-a-tello, Maine, 30 years from now, will it matter? Will anyone care? We will even still be a United States and what about the statue of limitations? These are the deep pnderables of this mess.
These always irk me. If you can’t even be bothered to worry about yourself (perhaps by actually reading and understanding what you sign) why should you expect anyone else to?
What about the clients of the bank that are waiting for their loans but have to sit tight because the bank is depending on the money Mr. Elliott owes it? Isn’t he worried about them? Doesn’t he care?
“Supervisor Pete Byers said he is skeptical of warnings from the agents that Rhodes could abandon his developments if he does not get better treatment from elected officials. Byers added the slump in the Mohave County housing market might also be a factor in Rhodes’ decisions to put his plans there on hold.”
Rhodes sounds like a real piece. Uh oh, now he might not build here because I’ve insulted him. It couldn’t possibly have anything to do with the market.
He is indeed a real piece. Follow the link to the story!
I posted this link to a forum that worships the great Rhodes a few days ago. http://www.topix.net/forum/city/kingman-az/TCO9VM6L1QSNOT7PK
A “great” group. Every time water comes up, they get hysterical calling us anti-growth and worse. According to them, we have unlimited water and we are being ridiculous. I post on there sometimes, but it’s hopeless. Now they’ve said that I don’t have a right to post because I’m a “renter”. Apparently, according to them, you don’t have a vested interest in a town if you are a renter or have a mobile home. One of the realtors is threatening not to post because of the all “non-believers” posts. He says he wishes he could delete posts he didn’t like.
The east valley tribune in the Phoenix area has also posted about 4 articles about Rhodes. They are not happy that he was allowed to buy state land in the area.
shari, I remember you’re from Kingman, right?
Those clowns don’t have a chance. I got a scoop on some new water laws getting ready to hit the legislature…AZ takes it’s water pretty seriously, and the faucets about to get turned off.
I hope your right, but the word here is the new laws will not effect Rhodes subdivisions. Not sure why.
I listened to the ACC hearing and the commissioners asked what he would do when the nearby private wells went dry, which everyone agrees will probably happen. He said that he would feel sorry for them, but it really wasn’t his problem if they did not drill deep enough. They asked him “what if we don’t approve your using 1 million gallons of water a day for the golf course”. He said that the golf course was necessary for his plans so he would just sink a well because they have no control over that.
Even after that, according to the newspaper, the commission has recommended approval.
I also have trouble with the ADWR approving him as having enough water, which they did. They said he has proved 9000 acre feet of water and that is enough for over 32,000 houses, a golf course, two lakes and hundreds of acres of commercial. According to everything I have read, he should need over 16,000 acre feet just for the houses. Even Las Vegas says that 1 acre foot of water is enough for 2 houses.
Golden Valley. Ha! When you don’t get any rain for months at a time, everything does tend to turn kind of “golden”.
Any update on Prescott, AZ? A friend of mine is moving there (from SW MO). She is originally from AZ, moved here for a few years to be with family (who died), now going back. She has to sell her house here first though, and things seem to be slowing down.
If she’s moving here, she should NOT buy…tons of very nice SFH rentals, some brand new and never lived in…absolutely not buy, IMO! Especially if she has to sell her home first. And, she needs to scope out the entire area to see where and if she wants to buy….DO NOT BUY NOW…the market has a long way to fall here, and there is a ton of inventory…read the story about the builder quoted above….it’s a huge scandal here!
Good luck and if she needs more info, contact me here.
[B]test[/B]
Try this instead: “test”
Without the quotes.
crap, that didn’t work. Instead of these: [ ]
Use these:
AARRGH!! Use the greater than, less than instead of brackets.
“”
Thanks, sleepless.
“test“
Use the “
But his plans to build more than 130,000 new homes there have stalled because the Arizona Corporation Commission has yet to
- issue a certificate to operate a water and sewer company that would serve his development in Golden Valley.”
Interestingly, my last issue of ‘Successful Farming’ has a nice article on T Boone Pickens, he has been buying water rights.
But his plans to build more than 130,000 new homes there have stalled because the Arizona Corporation Commission has yet to issue a certificate to operate a water and sewer company that would serve his development in Golden Valley.
Water is overrated.
“Department officials still hope to get that price or more at the rescheduled auction on May 24. ‘We’re disappointed, but we’ll get it done and set a record a month from now,’ State Land Commissioner Mark Winkleman said.”
Wink, wink.
Add delusional politicians to the list of delusional sellers.
I think he’s right about them “setting a record” at the next auction, but it may not be the one he has in mind (hint: Google “Dutch auction”).
Both quotes from Marketwatch… loss came in 46c per share below what was expected…. not pretty…
“Ryland Group Q1 net loss 58c vs earns $1.86″
Expected..
“RYL is seen posting a quarterly loss of 12 cents a share, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, down from net income of $1.86 a share a year earlier. Earlier this month, Ryland, which is scheduled to report Wednesday, said lower home prices would likely drive write-downs and a quarterly loss”
What happened to those analysts who said that HBs were taking the “big bath” last year with their writedowns so that they wouldn’t have to take any more going forward? Seems to me like the baths just keep getting bigger and bigger.
Man, sometimes you’re the windshield and sometimes you’re the bug.
I got short 500 points lower than this. I did call the bottom of the down move and correctly predicted shorts would get their heads ripped off. Too bad I didn’t take my own advice.
Looks like the DOW is picking up where housing left off…
Looks like a massive short squeeze in amzn today.I am still wondering why the market is going up so fast.I think some people are going to lose some more atm money.
I think it’s going up to help stave off a housing induced recession. I wouldn’t be surpised to see 14,000 or 15,000. It makes no sense, and has no basis. Mergers and aquisitions will be the big “why” and hot money will chase after hoped for targets. Casino 2000 all over again.
At some point - likely this year - I think the deflating housing bubble’s effect on the economy will overwhelm the nascent equity bubble. But first, get ready for some disconnects.
And lets hope the market doesn’t get too high - the higher it soars the greater the risk of a speculation caused equity crash. Housing alone is enough for a recession. The question is, mild or severe?
(Last thought - IF - if the market soars well above 15,000 housing may be “saved,” temporarily - but then when stocks go, IT ALL GOES.)
Mergers and acquisitions will be the big “why” and hot money will chase after hoped for targets.
I think big business should just get it over with once and for all and form The Company - one big company that produces all goods and services. Forget all this “competition” garbage. Once The Company is in place, we’ll all know exactly where to invest our money and we’ll all be rich - rich, I tell you!!!
Just shows you how rigged this game is. If, as some say, the M3 is running at 12%, where do you think that money is going? It sure isn’t going into salaries/wages/pensions or real job growth. No, no, no, I am not counting Would you like fries with that as job growth or the CEOs in the salary mix. Think, what do you think is propping up this market. I have to agree with Arizzzona that with housing tanking a stock bubble/burst would all but wipe out the economy.
What is really scary is that the bubbles seem to be growing sooner and sooner than the previous one. This market bubble seems to be too quick with the country in a recession and housing just beginning to massively sink. So, again I ask, where do you think this money is coming from, esp. when we see all these “real” rish people and CEOs cashing out the shares? I wonder. Now, where is that PPT hotline when I need it. I think I’ll go long on the market, say to 15K.
A bumper poppy crop in Afganistan, so maybe the drug money is whats feeding fraud street…oops….breaking news….Osama out of his hole!
I read an interesting article that the best performing stock market over the last six months has been Zimbabwe. Yes, a country that is literally falling apart, where there is no food, toilet paper, etc, but the stock market is going gangbusters. The theory is that with the Zimbabwean (sp?) government inflating money like mad, the money has to go somewhere and the somewhere it’s going is the stock market. A similar thing might be happening here. M2, M3, and overall credit in this country is expanding in excess of a 10% annual rate. A good part of this “liquidity” might just be pouring into the stock market.
I think the market run-up is a dollar play on the euro. When the euro goes up, the dollar goes down, metals go up, and the dow goes up. It’s called inflation. It’s still connected with the housing market because foreign-held MBS is low-yield and high-risk, which makes you want to run and hide.
I see a future of higher MBS rates and more inflation.
txchick57 - I have shared your bearishness yet remained long in a couple of small cap. spec. sits…….I chose today to short KBH and will be laying out more HB shorts in the upcoming days/weeks…..in HB stocks, we are losing guidance ……all macro housing numbers are drifting slowly lower - no upticks - no signs of any kind of bottom ……eventually housing prices will crack in a meaningful way…….probably with Alt-A troubles and additional foreclosure volumes…..some say house price declines lag decreased transaction volumes by 12-18 months…..I agree…..I thick HBs will trade 40-50 % lower over 12-18 months……easier money than betting the Dow will go from 13000 to 25000 over the same time horizon……..stay short HBs…..don’t panic…..all the best……don’t let fear creep in…
These two women were walking through the forest when they hear this voice from under a log. Investigating, the women discovered the voice was coming from a frog: “Help me, ladies! I am an mortgage broker who, through an evil witch’s curse, has been transformed into a frog. If one of you will kiss me, I’ll be returned to my former state!” The first woman took out her purse, grabbed the frog, and stuffed it inside her handbag. The second woman, aghast, screamed, “Didn’t you hear him? If you kiss him, he’ll turn into an mortgage broker?” The second woman replied, “Sure, but these days a talking frog is worth more than an mortgage broker!”
The Arizona State Land Department was seeking a minimum bid of $549,000 per acre, or $68.5 million, for a 99-yearlease of the land.
Holy Bujeezus, what?
After spending $549,000 for an acre, you’d at least think it wasn’t a *lease*. That’s a rental fee of $54,000 per year — for just one acre of land.
such a deal!
I’m sure there’s an army of well-heeled suckers waiting to take advantage of these outstanding prices.
Actually its $5545 per year. Still a lot for Arizona desert.
Actually, think it is more like 5500. a year (99 years).
The indian land is like that in some subdivisions in Mohave county. I never understood people paying 200,000 and more for a house that is on land that is not theirs. But people do, and happily pay their annual land lease. Seems kind of like a mobile home park to me, except more expensive and just a tad harder to move.
“I never understood people paying 200,000 and more for a house that is on land that is not theirs.”
Ever hear of Oahu, HI? [hint: It's a state]
This is classic. First, there is an article about the ballooning inventory levels in Palm Beach County (Florida):
From http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/local/sfl-housingpb25apr25,0,1232853.story?track=mostemailedlink :
“More than 33,000 homes and condos were on the market last month in Palm Beach County, up 10 percent from a year ago, according to the Miami-based Keyes Co. At the current pace, it would take several years to sell those properties.”
Then, from http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/palmbeach/sfl-425pbc10000homes,0,6139916.story :
“The Palm Beach County Zoning Commission on Wednesday recommended that the County Commission approve plans for a 10,000-home town in the center of The Acreage west of West Palm Beach.”
Does anyone in the zoning departments see the disconnect?
Alot of debt zombies playing deaf dmb and stupid now. FRIG off you dopes! Sink into the deb abyss.
oh my