Oregon Homebuyers ‘Jumped The Gun A Bit’
The Register-Guard reports that even the Oregon housing market is coming back to Earth. “Happy days aren’t exactly here again, but projected solid job growth and a slowing, but still strong, housing market should keep the local and state economies rolling along this year, according to a five-member board of economists.”
“The biggest change from last year is an expected slowdown in the housing market. Double-digit percent gains in housing permits in Lane County and Oregon last year surprised the board, which had predicted that rising interest rates would dampen activity. ‘I think we’ve been building more houses than we need,’ said Bill Conerly, an economics consultant based in Lake Oswego.”
“With low mortgage rates, buyers ‘jumped the gun a bit,’ he said. They were able to move out of apartments and into homes earlier than they otherwise would have, Conerly said. ‘If you’ve been borrowing from the future, it’s hard to sustain those same levels of sales,’ he said.”
“Conerly predicts a 1-in-10 possibility of a panic in the national housing market by buyers who got in over their heads. Instead of ‘people feeling that their house is a great investment, it becomes an albatross pulling them down,’ he said.”
“But a slight drop from last year’s stellar levels still makes for a decent housing market this year, the board said. ‘Instead of being at the edges of the solar system, we’ve come back to the atmosphere,’ Potiowsky said.”
But a slight drop from last year’s stellar levels still makes for a decent housing market this year, the board said. ‘Instead of being at the edges of the solar system, we’ve come back to the atmosphere, Potiowsky said.
These market signals are getting predictable. At first the cool-down is seen as a good thing, then a bit of worry and then we get to a Sacramento-like situation.
“…but projected solid job growth…”
I keep hearing about the projected solid job growth. Quite a bit of the economic news I hear seems to hint to a contrary situation in the job market. As been said on this board for a considerable amount of time, a great deal of the previous job growth we’ve seen has been in housing jobs and low paying service industry jobs.
I was at a friend’s restaurant last evening and he expressed fears that if the housing sector loses steam, that folks will have less money to go out to eat, etc.
Does anyone have any information to confirm the rosy picture that a lot of these economists give of the future job market? I’m currently out of work, but as someone who voluntarily left a job, I’m not currently counted in the unemployment figures.
rudekarl
No question about it. Expect areas that rely on tourism to see a change in spending habits. As one reader posted this morning, home equity lending is flat to down. Hundreds of billion$ can’t be pulled from an economy without some effect.
new topic
how many here will have a job by the end of 06?
how many will make more ?
hint: if you’re not on the gov tit you might not
Sorry OT, but FYI…
Yield curve is inverting further. Almost full inversion:
30 Year 4.62%
10 Year 4.54
5 Year 4.51
3 Year 4.57
2 Year 4.61
6 Month 4.66
3 Month 4.48
Also 30 Year auction this Thursday… Put it on your calendar as something to watch for.
‘Instead of being at the edges of the solar system, we’ve come back to the atmosphere”
Just like a meteorite!
And even for a meterite that is an enormous distance in a short amount of time.
Since we are using this meteorite comparison. Meteorites never stop at ground level, always below.:)
Ben,
I really like your knew posting/moderation system.
OT, but an interesting empirical observation from the DC metro market. My fiance and I stopped at the condos we are hoping to rent in once we are married (Halstead House at Dunn Loring). As we approached the entrance, we passed a decorative iron bench that had 22 lockboxes on it, plus there were two units being actively marketed by the realtor on site. I estimate the total number of units at maybe 300 or so? That’s not an insignificant number of units to be on the market. Also, as I understand it, not all owners have closed on their units, so that number will likely rise.
The fact that the units are JUST being closed upon by buyers and there are already lockboxes suggests, to me, that the Halstead developers were forced to either strike a deal with realtors, whereby there was no lockup period, or they eliminated the lockup period altogether to raise sufficient cash to build.
We talked to the realtor at one of the open houses (2 bdrm, 2 bath, 1100 sq feet=$559k), and he said that his parents had bought there based on his advice. Oh boy…won’t that be a fun Thanksgiving meal!
Oregon
From the link that poguemahone provided on Oregon, I checked on LA. Looks like we;ve turned the corner…
Looks like we are at about where we were in the beginning of ‘90, the tippity top of the last cycle.
By the way, inventory accumulation had slowed a bit over the past couple weeks (San Fernando Valley), but all of a sudden this morning the new listings are pouring on. Total inventory has risen by over 1% since 8am!. This is unusual. I am wondering if it is actually the result of all the “post superbowl” talk. I never put much stock in it, but it seems a lot of people have suddenly decided to list.
Anybody else seeing this in their area.
(I know, I am off topic on two posts now, but the discussion here is what I enjoy)
I think the odds of a panic are higher than the 10% he estimates. Right now people are in denial about prices which is why inventory is growing, at some point they’ll wake up and get curious. This blog is ranked 3rd for a google search for housing bubble.
In other words, this is the first time a housing bubble has existed in the Internet era. Housing supply and price numbers for the entire country are available for all to see online, much like the stock market. A panic might only take a few days to creep into the national consciousness instead of a year in the days of slow moving ink and pulp.
Firstly, I would like to say that this blog is great. I really enjoy it Ben. I have been reading it avidly every day for weeks now. So I decided I would finally post!
I agree-I think the chances of a panic happening is much greater than 10%. My husband and I have actually been saying for several months now that there will be a panic and I firmly believe that there will be a panic. My mother has a friend who is a relator and even she told my mother that she also believes that there will be a panic. I think the panic will come in the spring when everyone tries to dump their property at the same time. They think they are being clever by waiting to re-list in the spring; the problem (for them) is that everyone will be “rushing to the exit door” at the same time. “The panic” as well as other factors will contribute to the accelerated speed/downward death spiral of the housing market.
Also, to add to what I have just posted: often people will come out with very conversative economic forecasts, such as that man who said the chances of a panic are only 1 in 10. They don’t want to seem alarmist or create another kind of hysteria, but in my experience, things also happen far worse and far more devastating that what the conservative economic forecasters predict.
‘Instead of being at the edges of the solar system, we’ve come back to the atmosphere,’ Potiowsky said.”
Hm, does he mean Pluto? That’s way out comparing to the atmosphere.
“Reserve President Richard Fisher sounded less worried and said the high number of home owners with fixed rate mortgages provide a buffer.”
Yup, fixed is one; word, phony, manipulated, totally fabricated, might be another.
mjh
I’ve been looking at Halstead too. One bedrooms range from 1,300 to 1,500/mo, and 2 bedrooms from 1,900 to well over 2,000. They’re all over Craigslist. I am waiting to see if the rents come down any based on oversupply. It looks like they are. Just as a point of reference, the studios in that place started at 190K when they first started pre-selling 2 years ago. Now the one bedrooms are in the 330-380K range. I talked to one girl trying to rent out her one-bedroom for 1,500 and I asked how she could justify it based on others in the same building renting for 1,300 and she said she was already taking too big a hit at 1,500. Besides that, condo fees range from 200 upwards of 450/mo.
For what you’re getting, those things are a pretty good deal renting wise. It’s a really nice place. However, even a 50% haircut would not make them cash-flow positive and therefore not worth buyin. On top of that, there more condos going up just down the street, maybe a block away.
Ben Jones Says:
February 6th, 2006 at 9:27 am
rudekarl
No question about it. Expect areas that rely on tourism to see a change in spending habits. As one reader posted this morning, home equity lending is flat to down. Hundreds of billion$ can’t be pulled from an economy without some effect.
This is precisely one of the reasons I want to move out of Las Vegas (the other two reasons being I’ve developed severe allergies out here and there only college available does not offer a degree program I need for future advancements in my current job). Las Vegas was an excellent opportunity town for making money if you happened to move here at just the right time. However, I will admit, we are a town build on sheer frivolity and lets face it, mainly adult oriented entertainment. Less people will be coming here if they have no money to spend and they can’t finance their vacations on credit anymore. I can only thank my lucky stars that the housing bubble out here enabled us to make some money, made us debt free, and included the complete cash financing of a new business for my husband. But I seriously worry about the financial future of this town.
Ric,
I agree on all points. That building is one of the nicest I’ve seen. One big debate my fiance and I have been having is, given the really nice amenities and common rooms, whether we could get by on a 1 bedroom only, instead of the 2 bdrm we really want. I could see myself spending a lot of time in that pub-like area there in the middle.
Sounds like we both have the same strategy…my timeframe for moving is July, and I think by that time there will be quite a few people dying to rent there places out, after not having been able to sell them at the obscenely high mark-ups at which they are trying to do so now.
We checked out the building next door as well (Wilton House) and there was a 2 bdrm “Penthouse” apt there for 579K. (Since when is EVERY room on a floor a penthouse I ask?). I never have the heart to ask these fresh-faced realtors who are facing a bleak and short RE investor career, about their “investments”, but the guy that was showing it was really young and greeted us with a “What’s going on?”. Man…talk about your shoe shine boys giving stock tips. But hey, I still grabbed a free donut…so it’s all good.
As you mention, there is another mega-condo building a bit South on Gallows under construction…I bet there will be some good rental deals there too in the not too distant future.
Ric,
BTW, I meant to mention (Ben, sorry bout hogging the bandwidth) that if you watch the Washington Times RE section, you will see those Halstead units closing in the next few weeks, I think. Just last Friday, there were about 5 units at “6500 Prosperity” which showed the original price at which these folks bought their places. I don’t think I saw any units that originally cost more than 400K, and the 1 bedrooms were in the high 200 range. Just to give you an idea of the markup these flippers are trying to achieve.
6500 prosperity…sort of an ironic address, don’tcha think?
Just out of interest - does anyone have any info on Portland area housing ?
I’m looking to move up there as soon as I can find the right job - I’m curious where on the real estate rollercoaster that area is currently…
mjc
I’ll probably be in there earlier, maybe as soon as next month, so i’ll see you at the bar or by the pool in July. You should be able to clearly distinguish the renters from the owners by then. Renter - tan and smiling. Owner - glum and face pasty white with realization of accelerating investment loss.
I’ll check out the Times. I’ve been curious as to what those things originally sold for. Even at the high 200’s though, the math doesn’t work, not with that condo fee. I figure for the rents they’re getting, and accounting for the insurance, taxes, and condo fee, anything over 120K (30 yr) loan for a 1br and 200K for a 2br is a net monthly loss. Assuming 20% down, that’s 150K and 250K purchase prices respectively.
When I can get one for that, I’ll buy. Like I said, better than 50% haircut.
Do yourself a favor though, if you can swing it rent the 2 br. They’re so much bigger, and you’ll appreciate the space.
Uncle Git,
I don’t have specific stats for Portland, but I have acquaintance friends that moved up from California to the Ashland/Medford area within the last year.
They told me that realtors were licking their chops knowing money was coming in from California… in fact, they reported that a lot of the real estate gains in Oregon the past couple of years are from this out of CA migration (CA bringing equity/cash from sales of bubble priced homes).
They’ve been up there for at least 6 months and are telling me that the “market” has really slowed down in the last couple of months.
They had a story where they had lowballed a nice home on a golf course… originally listed near $500k, marked down to $450k- They lowballed under $400k, sellers ignored this cash offer- fast forward 2 months, sellers asking to see “if they are still interested”. The ex-Californians have since got word of this national slowdown and have declined to purchase at this 20+% reduction from original asking price.
MY POINT IS: I would seriously think about renting, should you find a job and want to move to Portland.
The “national” story about this bubble crisis has not yet hit mainstream media. Once it does, even the less bubble-inflated markets are even going to be “WaterCooler” talking about it- and I believe even those markets will show signs of stagnation or price reductions.
HERD MENTALITY = Mass decision-making based on Social Intercourse. In other words, they flocked to purchase when the heard prices were going up, up, up… and they will flock to sell when they have heard that the market has shifted and prices are stagnating and going down, down, down.
Uncle Git:
SBBbubbleBeliever is correct, just about all of the Oregon market the last few years has been propped up by Californian migration.
If you paid any attention to the “most overvalued” lists, Medford/Ashland and Bend were near the top, due to the influx of Californians, and is probably due the biggest fall. I think median prices are upwards of $500K in Ashland. 5 years ago it was probably less than half of that.
I’m in Portland and 5 out of 7 homes in my neighborhood sold in the last 4 months were bought by Californians.
I met a realtor listing a house across the street from me and when I asked what her business demographic looked like, she stated that up until mid-2003, about 75% of her sales were Portlanders moving up, etc. After that time, it has shifted to 75% being from out of state buyers, with 8 out of 10 of those being from CA. A neighbor who is a realtor agrees. He sells condos in the “hip” part of town and suggested that he mainly sells to Californians.
There’s an increasing “anti-Californian” vibe a la the 70’s and 80’s.
December’s Y-o-Y number was about 18% gain in Portland, so things are still moving and everyone keeps touting the CA factor as a reason things will continue. I see it as the “this place is different” mentality, but so far I’m wrong, but I hope things chill out soon.
We’re also seeing a lot of east coasters, red state liberals, and “creative class” migrants, looking to live the progressive, blue state life I guess. Funny what a little exposure in Money and Outside Magazines will do, eh?
You are smart to find a job first, as most throw caution to the wind, come here for the “quality of life”, then get slapped into reality. The market appears somewhat healthy, but Portland’s always lagged Seattle and San Francisco on that front. Not a lot of big names here outside of Intel and Nike. Lots of software startups from above “creative class”, etc. Good luck.
Uncle Git:
I didn’t really answer your question about position on the “roller-coaster”.
Depends on who you believe, but I think that if the good times in CA are over, the good times here are as well, with a little bit of lag. Hopefully people will come to their senses here but I wouldn’t rule out another year or two of gains here. And most in the RE game really play up the CA factor.
Having said that, it will most likely always be cheaper overall here.
You can still find a house in the $150s, but more likely will pay in the $300-$550 if you want something nice. Not a bargain to me considering wages, but…..
I routinely see houses that sold for $250K just 3 years ago, on the market now for $500-$700K.
Point is, you missed the time to buy by at least 3-5 years, IMO.
Uncle_Git Says:
Just out of interest - does anyone have any info on Portland area housing ?
Portland real estate data
WELL SAID SLEEPLESS NEAR SEATTLE!!! You nailed it… this is a well written assessment of stories I have been hearing directly through friends who have made this move, and also through local heresay. SB.B.B.
Uncle_Git Says:
Just out of interest - does anyone have any info on Portland area housing ?
Hi Uncle and Sleepless,
We’ve been househunting in Portland from the East Coast since last May (red state Libertarians but mostly we’re coming for the beer). First becoming accustomed to the sticker shock, we have unusual space requirements which pretty much prevent renting and have caused the long house search (as well as the first purchase falling through because a great deal more work was needed on the house). We’re looking at Southeast and Northeast. From the listings we’ve seen, the frenzy above $500k was over around May. Everything since has gone for offering price or less. Which is not to say that the offering prices aren’t outrageous. You can check the recent (last five years at least) deed and permit activity at portlandmaps.com. It’s not unusual for prices to be double what was paid in 2000. A LOT of flipper houses, a lot of dead inventory and a lot of the same houses from last summer/ fall falling out of escrow and coming back on.
The hotels have been stuffed with househunting Californians. A few weeks ago we met a couple from Pleasanton who had “missed out on Phoenix” but were there for the weekend to close on an “investment” rental house in Beaverton - their first. I hope I talked them out of it.
Sleepless is on the mark. Please post if you know of any good tracking sites. I use realtor.com. Thanks!
We talked to the realtor at one of the open houses (2 bdrm, 2 bath, 1100 sq feet=$559k), and he said that his parents had bought there based on his advice. Oh boy…won’t that be a fun Thanksgiving meal!
20 years ago to the year I purchased a similar condo in Orange County Calif. for $132,000. At normal 3.5% inflation(That is what the Fed tells us it is today) it would be worth about $264,000 today. Wow! have times changed.
We have really inflated or there is a BIG PROBLEM!!!!
Ready to Move,
While I’m really hoping this inmigration slows down, if we have to take in more people, I think we can tolerate those who at least know where their priorities are at.
Try the Bridgeport Pale Ale or the Deschutes Black Butte Porter when you get here.
My first recommendation to others who move is to rent. I know you said that you have some circumstances that don’t allow it, but like most places, unless you “have to get in now or I will miss out”, I think the numbers make more sense, right now, even here. Plus, you can buy some time to get a better feel for things. I don’t mean to discourage you, as some feel that prices will only continue, but to see things double (or more) in 5 years is scary.
Having said that, cheapest area is North Portland, but you need to be able to tolerate a gunshot every now and then. (Hearing one, not necessarily taking one) Northeast and Southeast puts you in my good graces even more, since NW and SW are basically the high-falutin’ condo-types who have turned it into SoHo and a causeway for Audis, BMWs, and MBs, unfortunately. (not that I’m bitter) I mean, some of the condos going in are over $2M!! 900sf for $400K?!? Just so I can hear my neighbor flush his toilet and Fifi barking all day? Forget it!
Between NE and SE, I believe that outer SE has some of the best deals. I’m thinking Woodstock area. Still a little “white-trashy” in spots, though.
What are your requirements footage-wise and price-wise?
I don’t track any realtor type sites except for realtor.com for unofficial inventory #s. I do a lot of traveling around town, jotting addresses/for sale listings as I am a long term investor (which means I’ve bought nothing in 3 years), and then follow the sales on portlandmaps and at the county. Portlandmaps is at the same time the best source of info here and the most depressing. Seeing what my neighbors paid for their homes in the early 90’s is disgusting.
I also subscribe to a service that sends me inventory, closed sales volume and prices info. They only send it once a month, but it’s a comprehensive view of Oregon/SW Washington. http://www.rmls.com. I believe it’s $40 a year.
Which leads to another recommendation. Use Portlandmaps to find a property that has no sales info in a neighborhood you like. The document type will read “IN” and have no pricing info (as opposed to “warranty deed” for $XXX). These people have been in their homes a long time (about 20 years or more). Go to the county, get the owner’s info, write a letter.
I’ve done this several times and gotten a few responses. Since I’m a total cheapskate with RE right now, I get laughed at A LOT. But, you avoid paying for the realtor and can get better deals. Just a recommendation, I understand you might not have the stomach, patience, or time to do that.
Thanks for the story about Californians in the hotels. I find this a positive and frustrating thing. Positive since it means I am not crazy and that perhaps the same % of buyers here are “investors”, as in other regions, and they will (hopefully) get crushed. Frustrating since recent buyers will get blindsided and right now nothing, I mean NOTHING, cash flows without incredibly “creative” financing. I wasn’t aware that they were doing this, although I have heard of investors buying stuff site unseen…
Another reason to sit things out for a little bit. But, I’ve been wrong for going on 3 years now…….Good luck!
PS - I wasn’t joking about bringing a job here, unless you have saved and don’t need to work right away. Things can be tight, unless of course, you are a barista like everyone else!
Ready to Move,
Sorry to make a long story longer, but have you considered Vancouver, WA?
It’s turned quite a bit as well, but some deals there. It might seem a little inaccessible but it’s pretty much a suburb of Portland.
A lot of people like it since in WA, there’s no income tax. They live there, then cross the river to buy things in OR where there’s no sales tax.
Also, Multnomah County (Portland metro) just came off three years of a 1.5% education income tax. They are putting a new tax on the ballot this year for 4 years at around .99%, I believe. Something else to keep in mind.
Sleepless,
Pretty solid overview of the Portland market, you managed to bring up a number of things you won’t see discussed anywhere else. One aspect I always take issue with though is blaming Californians. The only people that are happy to see outrageous appreciation are the people that either moved “inter-city” over the last 3-5 years or traded up in the same period, (most of whom are locals). They NEED to see “nut case” appreciation to validate their speculation, fund their lifestyle and save their rears. Folks that have been in their neighborhoods for years really don’t need this. Property taxes driven up by flippers that “hit and run” don’t help long time residents. I know there are alot of TV shows where people flip a house in 30-90 days but when you really think about how different are the people that stay in a house for 2-3 years? Though I’ve lived here my most of my adulthood, I grew up in Chicago ( so I don’t qualify for native status therby completely discounting any of my input) I’ll never be a full fledged Oregonian. Here’s another solid contribution that somehow continues to get utterly trampled. California is usually the 7th or 8th largest economy in the world. Many of the successful people are tough minded, educated businessman. Then all of a sudden the cross the CA/OR border and they can’t do simple math? They didn’t think to check local real estate listings? They just brought a trunk load of cash and threw it at the first realtor they had coffee with? Please! We Oregonians refuse to take accountablility for our own actions and secretly know this “CA effect” is mostly B.S . All we need is a greater fool.
Uncle Git,
My advice? Bring a job AND money! I made the mistake of saying in front of a realtor that Portland will always be the most affordable market on the west coast. A week later another realtor was beating me over the head with MY OWN LINE! Sorry folks, my bad. The truth is if you bother to check Craigslist we have as many if not more price reductions than any other town. Don’t buy the hype and hot air. We’re probably just as prone to a price correction/crash as anyone else!
DinOR,
My comments aren’t to blame Californians, but to point out the volume of Californians moving here, and their effect on prices. That can’t be denied. So, wait, maybe I am blaming them.
I also see many more people moving here from the east coast and Midwest. My theory is that some, if not most, would have chosen CA but due to high prices there, are moving to Portland and Seattle as a “cheaper” alternative.
I feel (though certainly can’t prove) that this has lead to a mindset of sellers to ask absurdly high prices for their homes in certain areas when current wages don’t justify it.
Frankly, I wish they’d quit coming but that’s something I can’t control.
Like San Diego, Portland’s been a great place for a long time. Why now?
I agree with you though, it really isn’t “different here” or “different this time.” We’ll just have to wait longer.
Sleepless,
You do bring up some good points among them the difficulty in nailing down any given sellers mindset. That’s a tough thing to prove! But like Dad always said, the proof is in the pudding and when you talk to somebody that is just gushing with joy about how they just DOUBLED THEIR MONEY IN LESS THAN 3 YEARS and are now buying a place in Idaho does it really matter where they came from? We were an undervalued market for many years and now folks from all stripes are “cashing in”. The bottom line is that Portland no longer matters to them (native or San Diegan) because they made their money and they’re outta here baby! Question is, where will the children they left behind be able to afford to live? Let them figure it out. I’m outta here baby!
True! There’s no denying the runup. I just think it’s funny how prices here really aren’t that far from CA.
Where are you moving to?
Oops, I didn’t realize you meant YOU were the one buying in Idaho. Good luck!
But remember, just because it’s cheaper, doesn’t mean it’s a good deal…….:-)
I find it interesting how people think Portland is a best kept secret ( minus the lousy pay and lack of jobs). I currently reside in Wilsonville and cannot believe the price of homes. Does anyone realize that a 900,000 home really only cost about 80,000 in buiilding materials and 50,000 in land consumption. Even better you can build a strawbale home for 50,000 with solar panels and turbine power, thus eliminating an electric and gas bill. It is time people wake up and smell the roses.. the public has been ripped off by the greedy RE and Mortgage personnel.
accroyer,
I heard that there are several new developments east of I-5 in Wilsonville going in right now. I assume that they are tearing up farmland east of Fry’s (main Wilsonville exit?) Is that the case? What are the ranges of the homes there? Do you know if the purchases are speculators or owner-occupied?
Yeah, this place has gotten nuts the last 5 years. I can say for sure it’s NOT “different here.”
now testing the “reply” button.
last test
Thanks, Sleepless.
We have a buyer’s agent who has the patience of Job. Woodstock, Eastmoreland and Tabor are all attractive as we need a large living room or great room which is harder to find in the bungalows and craftsmans.
We have friends in Vancouver and the tax situation is very attractive - but the mass transit isn’t. It’s a little too far. We’ve been living in suburbs and want to live closer in.
I agree that renting is much better in a new city - not just to prevent the upcoming loss but to check out neighborhoods etc. But it won’t make hubby happy. I am calculating in at least a 20% haircut. I agree that the prices in the Pearl are hilarious. I look at Craigslist rentals and they want $1600 for a 800 sq ft loft when you can rent a house much cheaper. The sale prices are equally ludicrous.
The market is frustrating right now. It’s in a state of inertia and nothing new is coming on. We came out in Jan. b/c I told hubby the inventory would increase and then there wasn’t anything new to look at. The “new” houses our realtor sent us we had seen in August. Nothing is happening. It’s weird. Is it the weather or the tip of the peak?
Californians are only annoying when they were forced out and didn’t really want to leave. Only move to Portland if you actually want to live there please : ) Bored Californians have taken over the Oregonian neighborhood blogs as well as tripadvisor. Go for a bike ride already!
We’re good on jobs, but have a few friends who moved back East from Portland b/c of job problems and have been warned many times. We just brought back one ex-Portlander some Black Butte Porter for a wedding present. Favorite brewpub at the moment is Roots, on 7th south of Hawthorne round the corner from Lucky Lab.
Thanks again and good luck, sleepless! I don’t think it will be that long really. CA has to crash first. We have the same problem here, but it was DC feeding the frenzy instead of CA.
Hey sleepless,
Apparently the new housing developments are having a hard sale in wilsonville, but tooo late they already have been building for some time. What this all boils down to is greed, quick money and turnarounds, that will burn you every time. Forget the housing bubble, come talk to me when there are no jobs to support any of this, just look at the salaries of what people are making and how many hours they have to work to make it. We have become a slave to our job in hopes of making the payment so we can sit around and tell everyone how much are homes are worth. A house is not an investment, because no matter wether it is paid off or still rented, there will always be some sort of payment (i.e taxes etc.). The question is do we really own the house then??? the answer is no. This is the misconception people have had over the last 5 years and now they are waking up to realize that those 6 homes they bought so they could retire as a millionaire off a 45,000 dollar a year salaryt is unrealistic and quite burdonsome. The house of cards will fall and so will alot of the economy which means less jobs and less pay.
Have no fear for me - when I move up It’ll be with a job - and I’m renting for a year minimum to see how this shakes out.
Yes I’m moving from San Diego - but I’m actually Irish - born and bred in Belfast - so I’ve no problems with the weather.
The move is mostly a lifestyle move - I’m heavily into photography and the outdoors in general and want to live closer to the mountains.
accroyer,
That is unfortunate. They tear up all that land to build crap homes that won’t sell. That’s a pretty area. Greed, I agree.
I can’t find anyone in this town that thinks things can/will change here, so I’ve learned to just tune it out and bide my time…
See ya on the other side!
Uncle Git,
So far you’ve missed Oregon’s best, over 30 days of rain recently!
Good luck with the eventual move….
Yea - I’ve a buddy who moved up there a year ago - native californian - he’s not been so keep on the weather thus far
Being Irish I’m half eskimo and half duck so I should be fine
Thanks - if you know of anyone who wants and Oracle DBA of god-like talent let me know
Uncle Git:
You might try these guys. I have taken some Client Side .NET classes before and remember a few of the students used/worked for them and had some good things to say.
It’s kinda like a placement house that allows you to use their name/resources, but I believe you, in essence, remain an independent contractor. They may have changed as that was 2+ years ago, but they are the first thing that came to mind.
Here’s the link to the page of specialties:
http://www.prodx.com/skillbase.htm
I’m guessing you can find your way to the main page.