The Market Hit A Wall In Florida
The Tampa Tribune reports from Florida. “Condos For Sale. Developers advertise slashed prices and promise flat-screen TVs and computers. All the hype hasn’t worked. The white-hot trend to change apartments into condominiums has long passed, and developers that overestimated the demand have found themselves with half-empty complexes.”
“Some that tried converting them back into apartments aregrappling with foreclosure. Others are turning in their keys, leaving the lenders with unwanted residential properties they’re trying to sell themselves.”
“‘It’s the oldest thing in the American economy,’ said Eddie Flom, of Flom Equities LLC. ‘Greed, greed, greed overcomes wisdom.’”
“Developers aren’t the only ones feeling the pain. In some cases, lenders are on the hook for loans on complexes where sales have been slim. At CrossWynde Condominiums, an apartment conversion near Brandon, 60 percent of the 453 units are owned by the lender, according to county property records.”
“Arthur Nevid, managing director for Mountain Funding, said the lender plans to hold the complex until the real estate market turns around. ‘The market was real hot, and then it hit a wall very quickly,’ Nevid said. ‘Two years ago you’d sell 10 units in a day. Now if you sell 10 in a month you’ve had a good month.’”
“Although the trend squeezed some renters out of apartments a few years ago, it’s helping them now. Converted condos for rent are plentiful, leaving renters in a good position to negotiate a deal.”
“Amanda Gates, for example, knew her landlord bought three condos at CrossWynde and needed tenants fast. He wanted $850 a month for the one-bedroom condo. Gates and her husband talked him down to $700. ‘We knew he didn’t have anyone else,’ Gates said.”
The Palm Beach Post. “St. Lucie County home builders face ‘one of the most troublesome inventory problems in the nation,’ research firm Metrostudy said. The county has a 16.6-month supply of homes for sale, even after builders slashed construction from 777 starts in the third quarter of 2006 to 387 starts in the first quarter of 2007.”
“‘The county attracted an enormous amount of speculators,’ director Brad Hunter said. ‘The speculators put down deposits on houses and the builders started construction. But by late 2005, a lot of those speculators said, ‘Ahh, I don’t want the house anymore.’”
“‘Everyone is being super cautious,’ said Bruce Malasky, past president of the Gold Coast Builders Association. ‘There’s no urgency for buyers to make offers.’”
“Builders have had little choice but to pull back on construction and dangle incentives such as low closing costs and temporary waivers of homeowner association fees.”
“‘Builders are slowing down on their production,’ said Gail Kavanagh, executive VP of the Treasure Coast Builders Association. ‘It’s going to affect the economy of the area tremendously.’”
“Martin County builders likewise pulled back on housing starts. There were only 95 starts in the county in the first quarter, well off the all-time high of 345 starts in the third quarter of 2005.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “This comes from an insider in the downtown condo market: ‘The downtown market is ‘immature’ and is only receptive to products in the mid to high $200K. Past that threshold, there are very few buyers. This is not Manhattan after all.’”
“I couldn’t get a breakdown of just downtown condos, but I did go to the Orlando Regional Realtors Association site and added up all the listed condos in the Orange-Seminole area on the market for more than $300,000. I counted 758 of them.”
“Then I added up March sales of condos costing more than $300,000. I counted 20 of them. Ouch.”
“In the Orlando area, vacation homes are typically investment homes as well, and sales in Central Florida have been held down by a number of factors, according to local agents who specialize in vacation properties.”
“‘The rocket ran out of gas,’ said Steve Schaffer, a partner in an Orlando real estate company that specializes in vacation-home and second-home sales. ‘After Hurricane Katrina [in 2005], sales started to drop,’ and they continued falling throughout 2006, Schaffer said.”
From TC Palm. “Although there are nearly 1,000 unoccupied new homes in Indian River County, move-ins are happening at a record-breaking pace, according to data on new home construction released Monday.”
“While the overall number of move-ins is up, Metrostudys Brad Hunter said that much of that could be fueled by renters. With investors unable to dump their properties, many are ’surviving by renting it out.’ Those homes may end up as ‘deferred supply’ and will return to the market in a few years.”
“Hunter added that the county is similar to St. Lucie County, in that both are overbuilt, leaving builders to create incentives to attract buyers. In Martin County, there is a six-month supply of vacant finished homes.”
The Herald Tribune. “Real estate appraisers were under tremendous pressure during the boom to provide appraisals that would allow bankers to make mortgage loans. Now that the boom is over, appraisers find themselves being blamed for loans that went bad. Bill Temple, an appraiser with 25 years of experience, recently discussed this issue with staff writer Michael Braga.”
“Q: How did the boom from 2002 to 2006 alter conditions under which appraisers operated? A: ‘Any appraiser will tell you that there was incredible pressure on values on either vacant land or homes. Pressure on completing appraisals within a ‘quick’ turnaround time resulted in hastily completed reports. Major lenders and banks are just as responsible as mortgage brokers for pressuring appraisers.’”
“Q: Do you think appraisers pushed back enough against bankers and borrowers during the boom? A: ‘It is no secret that there are some appraisers who will appraise anything for any number. But the majority of appraisers only want to do a good job. When ‘pushing back’ to a lender or originator, they did not care. They could just pick up the phone and find somebody to fulfill their demands.’”
The News Press. “A Lehigh Acres couple alleges in a fraud lawsuit that the value of eight properties they bought was falsely inflated by three real estate appraisers in Lee County to support a construction loan.”
“The suit, filed March 9 in circuit court by Robert and Judy Schmidt, says they bought four Cape lots and four in Lehigh Acres from First Home Builders in 2005. The couple obtained financing to build houses on the property through a program offered by D’Alessandro & Woodyard Commercial Realtors.”
“The Schmidts want out of their contracts to buy the houses, claiming that they stand to lose at least $250,000 because the value of the properties was exaggerated by the appraisers; Gary Neese, William Meador and Gulf Coast Appraisal and Associates.”
“But Miami-based attorney William Strop, who represents Neese, said there was nothing improper about his appraisals. ‘Certainly Mr. Neese did nothing wrong,’ Strop said.”
“Besides, he said, the complaint filed by the Schmidts didn’t name specific flaws in the appraisals. ‘The allegations are so vague and confusing we really can’t tell what they’re saying.’”
“William Thompson, the Schmidts’ attorney, said he’ll be revising the complaint to be more specific, but it’s clear the couple was defrauded with the help of bad appraisals. ‘We’re alleging fraud and conspiracy by all of the players to bilk these people.’ he said.”
“Strop questioned whether the Schmidts, Judy Schmidt is a real estate agent, were simply bad businesspeople. ‘It seems to me they made an educated guess, and then it didn’t pan out,’ he said. ‘Why is that anybody’s fault? If they’d gambled and won, nobody would ever have heard from them.’”
‘ Delray Beach · The list is daunting, blunt and nondiscriminatory. In 36 unforgiving lines, City Manager David Harden on Monday laid out a worst-case scenario if Delray Beach were to surrender more than $24 million of its 2006-07 budget under a Florida House proposal for property-tax reform.’
“In 36 unforgiving lines”
I don’t see where the overpaid politicians are getting a pay cut. I don’t see where they put the surplus over the past 4 years …oh wait overpaying politicians, government kickbacks to contractors… So let’s pick on the library and swimming pools to upset the residents. Way to go Delray!
Why does this not surprise me? Of course local governments are going to react to this with massive fear tactics, threatening dire consequences. Interestingly, our local NBC affiliate is going to do a story tonight on how much local government has been spending for ugly public art. One sculpture cost $400,000 !!! One of the promo quotes was “They’ve been spending like drunken sailors”. I hope more local TV stations and newspapers do these kinds of stories as the bust unfolds.
I have to make this point again: local government operated just fine prior to the bubble, so what’s the problem with “returning” to those levels? In fact, IMHO, services deteriorated during the bubble. I don’t care if they shut down and rope off the public parks. I can’t enjoy them, anyway, since they’ve become havens and gathering places for illegals, their extended families and all the trash they generate, not to mention the crime. Code enforcement and zoning is a joke. Parts of SouthShore Tampa Bay look like glorified gulags now, so where was the code enforcement and zoning during the bubble? Crime shot up, despite the influx of money. So all the money didn’t help law enforcement. Plus, from reading the various articles Ben has posted, in places like Miami, it seems a lot of public housing money went up the noses of shady contractors. Local government is just going to have to do the same thing the citizenry had to do: tighten its belt. And a good thing. We’ll all learn to live with it. The only stage we’ll have to get through is the resentment stage, where government employees “punish” the citizens by delivering slipshod services and pointing to budget cutbacks to make their point. Which is basically a third world attitude.
“They’ve been spending like drunken sailors”
I liken the spending to an 18 year old with lottery winnings.
Perhaps…but the 18-year-old can’t wave a gun in your face to get his lottery loot.
Yes, but the 18 year old illegal devil spawn can and does wave a gun in your face at the public parks and beaches in Florida, depriving you of your right to the public recreation you’ve paid for with taxes.
Any indication that it will change in the forseeable future?
Absolutely hilarious (and sadly true), Palmetto.
The parks here are nice but everytime I go, I either wind up next to a group playing loud music, or believe it or not, I was studying for the LSAT and someone came and sat on the other side of the SAME picnic table, even though there were others open in the area. I’ll just stay at home, thanks.
“someone came and sat on the other side of the SAME picnic table, even though there were others open in the area.”
Hey, Moman! I had something like that happen to me many moons ago when I was living in South Florida. I was standing in line at a food and drinks concession at the now-defunct Six Flags Atlantis in Dania/Hollywood. I was the only one in my line. Next to me was a line with about seven members of some extended Latino family and they were the only ones in their line. My hand to God, they all looked over at me at the same time and moved into my line. So I just switched lines with them, but it was really weird. I sort of got the impression they felt sorry for me being all by myself, because they looked at me with astonishment when I switched.
You still have all those Jai Alai frontons all over the place?
Beautiful game to watch, never bet more than a few bux, though, per match.
The Tampa fronton, on Dale Mabry south of Gandy, was replaced by a Home Depot seven or eight years ago. In retrospect, that should have been a tip-off that we were about to trade one kind of gambling for another.
“I can’t enjoy them, anyway, since they’ve become havens and gathering places for illegals, their extended families and all the trash they generate”
Please show more respect for So Cal … today is Ilegal Immigration Parade day in LA. Perhaps they will not fly the Mexican flag above the American flag today - as they do on other occasions.
And how ’bout some respect for those of us in AZ! Parade Day’s happening here too!
“If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.”
George Orwell
It is an ancient practice by politicians to propose cutting the services most necessary to or enjoyed by the citizenry. I agree with Palmetto. Dig out the year 2000 budget, compare it to the current proposal. The difference likely is greater than $24 million. Then eliminate first all the feel-good stuff and agencies created or added since 2000. Point out the waste in the sculptures and similar. Press the pols for a return to year-2000 staffing levels with the threat that, if the city administration fails at that, the difference should come out of the salary scale. That kind of motivation usually works. All you need are a couple of decently-talented bean counters among the disgruntled citizens.
At the federal level, it’s called the “Washington Monument” defense, from the park services threat to close the washington monument due to budget cuts.
Budgeting for City Manager Dummies:
1) Go back and find a balanced budget from a past year that most closely resembles anticipated revenue stream for city.
2). Implement that budget to include salary,pension and personnel levels.
3). Go back to picking nose.
“Then I added up March sales of condos costing more than $300,000. I counted 20 of them. Ouch.”
I really cannot put this properly in perspective, for that, I call forth Auger Inn!
Seriously, Florida is so toast, its going to tighten the whole nations credit system. The other markets will add to that tightening.
Got popcorn?
Neil
I hear you and agree with you. I just find it difficult that the FED won’t intervene and keep it propped up somehow. I don’t know how they could, but their is so much riding on this housing that I believe they will do whatever they can to keep it at the least “stablelized”
Something to think about… The fed controls short-term rates, not long-term. Long term is much more effected by inflation. People don’t want to lock in their savings at 6% for 30 years, if it looks like inflation will be 7%.
So, poeple say the fed should lowere rates to hep the credit cruch. Guess what. That is inflationary, which will push long-term rates in the other direction.
If the fed wants to help housing, they actaully have to increase short-term rates to stop inflation, which will drop long-term rates. Of course, it also puts people out of work and hurts corporate earnings… which is bad for housing.
In short, in my opinion, damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
I guess the only real solution would be to hand anyone that wants to buy a house a check for $30K so they can make a down payment, because if you don’t have a down, you aren’t buying a house anymore, and if people can’t buy, it is all downhill!
fed rate of 5.25% , under normal circumstances, would have 10 yr treasuries at ~7-8% ..and what that would do to housing is anyon’e guess..
of course, fed expressed puzzlement at their loss of control over long rates..
but i fear , unlike Billy boy of Pimco, the long rates would be up significantly 1-2 yrs down the road.
minor quibble: that should read Long term is much more affected by inflation expectations. People’s expectations of the future can change very quickly indeed.
beyond toast, we spent the weekend in ft myers, every other house was empty, and the vacation rental I was in got “we can help your with mortgage” calls yesterday morning.
“we can help your with mortgage” calls yesterday morning.
That’s funny… did you tell them you were the renter?
How much more would a hurricane season like 2004 exacerbate the housing decline in Florida?
“How much more would a hurricane season like 2004 exacerbate the housing decline in Florida?”
Would do just the opposite in the near-term. People will buy up the houses as fast as they can, the good ones to live in and the damaged ones to fix up and “flip.” It will set back the “bubble” process by at least 2 years.
The areas majorly ravaged by the hurricane would suffer, but nearby areas in better shape would local bubbles. That happened in Baton Rouge after Katrina.
Palm Beach just ok’d another 10,000 houses to be built.
How does one go about mixing concrete, when you have no water?
“How does one go about mixing concrete, when you have no water?”
Use the “reclaimed” water. They call it the stinky house.
It’s like the “E-bay effect”. A person goes out to a garage sale and finds what they think is a rare “widget”. They research on ebay and find page after page of “rare widgets” up for auction by other ebayers, and most aren’t getting bids, maybe one or two. Person decides to put theirs up for sale anyway because “maybe mine will sell”.
How could Florida be screwed ??? I thought everybody wants to retire here…
Currently on my street..
20 or so empty lots (remember Port Charlotte was divided in the early 60’s. Lots still left from then…)
2 houses for sale/my neighbor went from 279k to currently 169k and not a single showing…(18 months on the market)
4,I repeat FOUR foreclosures. The house on the corner was foreclosed 15-16 months ago and has never been on the market. Actually none of the four have had for sale signs yet. I cant belive lenders think this is goig to come back…
The best part…there are only 9 houses on the entire street !!!
An appraiser I talked with last week said he had never been busier,ever. He is doing foreclosure estimates only, at the rate of 2-3 a day,7 days a week. He did casually mention only a HANDFUL of REO have been dumped in Charlotte county…
Chris
4,I repeat FOUR foreclosures. The house on the corner was foreclosed 15-16 months ago and has never been on the market. Actually none of the four have had for sale signs yet. I cant belive lenders think this is goig to come back…
THIS is what I find scary. It makes one wonder whether the banks are looking at their ballance sheets and thinking that if they sold all the property and took a loss the FDIC would come a knockin’.
I don’t think that the banks can keep foreclosed properties on their books for very long.
The auditors don’t like it and the banks are not supposed to be in the real estate business.
The bankers who frequent this blog can elaborate as to why…
i just had this thought (and I just posted it in the bits bucket theres a similar discussion over there): couldn’t the feds “entice” these banks to keep the REOs on their books for an extended period of time, thereby jacking up rents?
Les Pendens - They could always keep them on their books ala Japan. Never admit they are non-performing.
“I don’t think that the banks can keep foreclosed properties on their books for very long.”
Reminds me of the adage posted here almost a year ago: “Don’t panic. But if you are going to panic, be the first to panic.”
Yeah, I’m guessing that they’re getting quiet, behind the scenes guidance that the bank examiners won’t be looking too closely at the amount and valuation of REO. Indications that this is already the case mean that somebody has been lookin up “systemic risk” in their old econ textbook. But I don’t think that they can claim that loans that they’ve foreclosed upon are still performing.
I bought a foreclosure in Austin in 1992 that had been with the bank for a few years (3 or 4…don’t recall exactly).
“But I don’t think that they can claim that loans that they’ve foreclosed upon are still performing.”
But what is REALLY going to hurt… most banks sold their mortgages, which were then securitized as MBS/CDOs. These are guaranteed by someone- either Fannie, Freddie, or the lender- so that if payments are not made, the guarantor has to pay principle and interest to the CDO holder. So they will bleed money to bondholders. If they show the slightest sign of defaulting, all MBS backed by their mortgages will get severely downgraded, and the banks will not be able to get money to loan. I don’t know if the banks can remain solvent if they end up holding too many foreclosed properties.
Layers upon layers of cause and effect, each adding an incremental effect to this slow fall in prices. As has been mentioned, the lenders cannot hold these properties forever. At some point (summer, fall) the books must be balanced, and the REO’s will flood the market. A few years of that action and…such a herkyjerky ride!
Ultimately true for banks, but a very large percentage of the REO will be sitting with non-bank lenders. (New Century, et al). I believe that if a conduit takes title, they might be able to flip it to a subsidiary who holds it as an “investment” at cost, until such time their cash flow dries up, then…..KABOOM!
The CrossWynde is right off Highway 301 and is advertised–how else–as a “luxury” complex with European kitchens, lakefront views, and a fitness center so cutting-edge you’ll be a triathlete in no time. Who in their right mind is going to buy a glorified apartment in Brandon? I bet they don’t sell ten units in a quarter, much less a month.
Seven hundred dollars multiplied by 120 is $84,000, for anyone trying to “value” this banality.
When I hear “European kitchen,” the kindest interpretation that comes to mind is that very clever use has been made of a rather small space, courtesy small but effective high-end European appliances (think Miele).
Somehow I don’t think you’re getting a bunch of nice new Miele appliances - just a rather small kitchen.
My thoughts exactly - from experience, ‘European’ kitchens tend to be ones that you just swing a cat in…should you actually want to.
Not such a bad thing, as it means you don’t have to walk the extra two miles or so, from counter to counter, as you make dinner…its all within reach.
At least it’s not the ubiquitous ‘Gourmet’ kitchen….I wonder how the world supplies of gourmets are holding up, what with so many of them being made into kitchens…
European kitchens, hmmph! I lived in Europe, in typical apartments and rowhouses, and my memories of our various European kitchens was that we could not swing a cat in there, nor even a mouse. Teeny fridges, small sinks, no garbage disposal, forget about an “island”. Fine for bachelor life, but try cooking dinner in there when guests come, ugh.
So “European Kitchen” is no selling point to me, but then again, I suppose they aren’t marketing to people like me.
I lve watching the Brit Sitcoms where the kitchen has what would basically pass for a college dorm room fridge, the kind you can get for $140 at WalMart:
http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_id=5030816
Must make for daily trips to the store.
On the other hand, I visited a neighbor last nite and was given the tour of the new castle. The purest form of McMansion ever built. Take an average room and triple its dimensions in all directions so that it is now just a damn big room - just a bigger ugly. The kitchen island could have had a palm tree on it - it was 12′x4′ and all granite. Their single childs (7 y.o.) bedroom was an easy 25 x 15 with its own large bathroom. An 800K waste of lumber and cement.
And the wall of insecurity keeps getting taller for wealthy numbnuts. What a great value to pass down to your progeny.
I bet the kid would rather share a 12×12 bedroom with a kid brother or sister. As it stands, he/she lives in a mausoleum. 25×15 foot rooms can get awfully lonely. And drafty. And cold.
BTW, does the kid get to ride a pony in his/her backyard on his/her birthday? Probably.
I smell early pregnancy and drugs in this kid’s future. Something - anything - to fill the void that all the excess creates.
N NO NO NO…This kid has her own Studio apartment minus a full kitchen…..she can invite overnight guests, have a big king bed a pull out couch, a play area a computer area a TV area, and MORE….. what a lucky kid!
Maybe add a microwave and a little refridge too, so she doesn’t have to hardly interact with her MORON parents….KEWL!
===============
As it stands, he/she lives in a mausoleum. 25×15 foot rooms can get awfully lonely. And drafty. And cold.
European kitchen. Every apartment complex has “european kitchens”, which are the bland white laminate cabinets with wood trim that were popular back in the early 1990s. One complex manager was spouting off to me about “european kitchens”, and I amicably replied that this was America, and where can I find an American kitchen? She wasn’t sure what to say, because I’m sure all the yuppies loved the ‘european style’ when it was popular, and I’ve always liked dark wood cabinets regardless of what is in style.
kitchenette
“The CrossWynde is right off Highway 301″
I’m familiar with it. I call it “BreakWynde”.
You crack me up. You couldn’t pay me to live in Brandon, a hick enclave for Church of God believers. I remember when the first “Chinese restaurant” opened there. I went with a friend. The food all came from cans, like Chung King (sp?), and was ghastly, but the locals were packed in and smacking their lips. The Brandon Mall is an anomaly worthy of an international paranormal research team. Where did it originate, and why?
My best friend went to the original Brandon High School. He said that during classes, they would hear cows mooing in the school barn (yes, the school taught farming among other things), and the teacher would run out to catch male students having sex with them. Some students drove tractors to school. This is the place trying to pretend it’s the height of sophistication?
A few years ago, a waiter at the Don Caesar told me that Brandon was the fastest-growing community in America. I guess there are lots of Americans with a thing for cows.
The above comments are for snake charmer.
Aw, geez, Incredulous, and here I thought you were laughing at my modest “Bon Mot”.
Hi Palmetto,
I was laughing at everyone’s comments on Brandon. That has got to be one of the ugliest areas in all of Florida. The idea of Yuppies in Brandon is hilarious in itself. I didn’t know there were hick Yuppies. Do they buy high end tractors and have manure delivered?
Brandon is typical of suburban america - there are lots of new buildings, lots of new stores, apartments, and homes, and still lots of trailers and hicks intertwined.
Brandon mall used to be a small airport. Between the mall and Walmart is still a cow pasture (or was last time I was out there). Too bad because I used to like the Brandon area, but the yuppies have turned it into something completely different. Now Apollo Beach is prime real estate, right across from the race track.
“‘The allegations are so vague and confusing we really can’t tell what they’re saying.”
I will tell your what Robert and Judy Schmidt are trying to say …
“We are Fender-heads.”
I think that’ll be a tough sell to the judge/jury. Check out Judy’s website and scroll down to her “Specialization” section. She “specializes” in assisting her customers with “… single family residences and income property”. She bills herself as a seasoned expert on her website, then wants to play the hapless stooge who was swindled?!? Nahhhh!
Dang! Forgot the link. http://www.judyhashomes.com/
“Your Professional Fort Myers Area Realtor”
Providing a superior level of informed, professional real estate services to buyers and sellers in the greater Fort Myers area!
Specialization
I specialize in representing my clients in the purchases and sales of single-family residences and income property within the cities of Fort Myers, Bonita Springs, Estero, South Fort Myers, North Fort Myers.
The only things this ding bat is qualified to flip at a superior informed and professional level are rotiserie chickens. Enjoy your new carrer at the Walmart deli counter!
Got 10% down?
I hope this makes it to the attorney of the defendant.
That’s what I was thinking.
Meet Robert and Judy J. Schmidt
who purchased eight houses to flip
“the appraisals are lewd,
so now we will sue”
they said with a stiff upper lip.
Got 10% down?
Tallahassee will do anything to pass a bill to reduce property taxes that they are willing to have slot machine gambling in certain areas. Abe Lincoln once said, There are two things constitutents don’t want to see being made, one is sausage, the other is legislation.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-gambling0107may01,0,241655.story?coll=orl-home-headlines
“…that they are willing to have slot machine gambling in certain areas.”
Florida was built in the 20’s on what is now illegal gambling. Trust me, this is not a new idea nor is it a bad idea. We have enough tourists that would be happy to drop some vacation dollars directly into the casino.
Gambling brings nothing but pain on one side and offers dumbed down employment on the other side…
“Gambling brings nothing but pain on one side and offers dumbed down employment on the other side… ”
It’s been on our waters for years. You are fooling yourself if you feel anything would change on land.
Gambling was largely banned 100 years ago in our country…
As it will be again.
Gambling occurs on a lot of Indian land. Unclear they think its your country.
…it’s..
“Gambling was largely banned 100 years ago in our country…
As it will be again. ”
If we let the right wing morals police continue to run things maybe. Otherwise I doubt it.
Pending sales just out… Down 10.5% from March
Also with credit to RJ..A great chart on coming Adjustments..Look at the crest of the wave after month 4…
http://forum.themarkettraders.com/read-m/26/6829/6896
Having seen this chart in a number of places, it still is stunning. Given the lag time of actionable default/foreclosure conditions, a sure and certain ramping up of NOD’s should start mid-summer ‘07.
every time i see that chart my pants get uncomfortable.
Christmas is really going to suck this year. Santa Claus will be taking a breather and there will be lumps of coal in many a stocking.
This could be true. The original idea behind coal in the stocking was that Santa gave coal to poor kids whose parents couldn’t afford heat, soit was acutally a give. Maybe this year Santa (gubment) will give them heating oil vouchers.
Wow, thanks for the info, Andy! There’s always some nugget of truth or tradition behind these old sayings and stories. Anyway, looks like it will be Santa Chavez giving the heating oil vouchers.
“every time i see that chart my pants get uncomfortable”.
and the female version is sweaty palms and light headedness
I’m in love with the ARM reset chart. It gives me credibility when I try to tell (non-RE) professionals that housing has another 4+ years to shake out. However, if 2008 does not bring a large drop in nominal prices, perhaps 2009-2011 won’t either.
Keep in mind that this chart will not be static in the future. There must be various 2 year ARMs being lent as we write. So the numbers downstream will continue to increase as more loans are made in the next two years.
Anyone able to find/build a link between those numbers specifically and geograpical location?
I suspect that the type of property I’d be looking for won’t start to break big until month 36 or so — when the Alt-As and Option-ARMs begin to fold. Subprimes seem for the most part to apply to housing that is at or near the bottom of the food chain.
Hereafter known as chart #2, Schiller’s being chart #1.
“Strop questioned whether the Schmidts, Judy Schmidt is a real estate agent, were simply bad businesspeople. ‘It seems to me they made an educated guess, and then it didn’t pan out,’ he said. ‘Why is that anybody’s fault? If they’d gambled and won, nobody would ever have heard from them.’”
Florida considers people Licensed in a profession as “EXPERTS”. They don’t have a leg to stand on.
In a suit by a buyer who would complain that they were taken advantage of by the “EXPERT”, the buyer will usually win. But in this case, the buyer is the expert.
Sorry, Schmidts. You loose. Greed got the upper hand.
why does anyone use a realtor ?
w the net you can sell yourself
easy as pie
“why does anyone use a realtor ?”
Someone to blame when s**t hits the fan. Also, a good agent is hard to find, but will sell your house much faster than you will on your own. They’ll also represent you in the purchase process for those who don’t want to or can’t negotiate well.
That said, I’m pretty mixed on using one. I’d prefer a real estate attorney in most cases.
I think you’ve posted that exact same comment several times in the past, flatffplan. “easy as pie” eh? Depends. But can you give us more details? Not that I’m sticking up for the horrendous 6% fees which agents charge in this country!
Because there are plenty of people who are not net savvy. And if your property is not in the MLS it won’t get shown, especially in markets that are not red hot. In a red hot market you can easily FSBO and save some or all the commission, but the market needs to be hot.
“Why do people use realtors?”
Because the average buyer doesn’t trust a FSBO, doesn’t trust himself to evaluate the FSBO home, or doesn’t know how to handle the transaction. The average buyer preceives that a realtor offers protection from a dishonest seller and knows how to dot the i’s and cross the t’s to complete the transaction. Thus, the FSBO misses out on a lot of prospective buyers.
I bought a FSBO home a few years ago, and it was a pain in the a**. Part of the problem was my own paranoia about getting ripped off because the seller was one of those types who doesn’t look at you in the eye and seems to be hding something. All in all, I think I got a great deal and I was happy to have cut any realtor out of the transaction, but I can understand how a lot of people would not want to deal directly with a seller. As a previous FSBO seller, I can also see why people are happy to pay someone to sell their home for them. It’s a freakin’ hassle. All in all, I think realtors serve a good purpose, I just think that their fees should be more in line with the actual “work” that they do. 6% is bullsh*t.
What’s the old saying “A fool for a client.”
“Why does anyone use a realtor?”
Agent who sold my last house (Memorial Day 2006) had been “working with” a client for a year, to find a small cheap house that didn’t require immediate fix-up, and that could be financed at a reasonable rate. I had the house, he had the client, I took a $20K down payment, and the house was sold in a few days. No way would I have found a buyer on-line. For one thing, I would’ve priced the house too high, without the agent’s advice. The buyer has performed perfectly on her mortgage payments to me. So far. Nor are they scheduled to reset. Ever. She’s a nurse. Demographics favor her job.
Here’s why sometimes it’s better to use a realtor if they are honest and not a used car salesman mentality. A realtor friend of mine took a phone call at the office recently from a guy in California who wanted to list a house in Youngstown OH he bought over the internet for $19,000. Thought he got a great deal. But now he can’t find anyone to sell it for him. He’d called every real estate company in the area. The house is in an location that only a moran would even enter. Crack house after crack house. Shootings nightly. This greedy jerk thought he was going to make a huge profit and save a commission. He just blew $19,000. Houses in that area only sell for $6000-$12,000 because no one in their right mind would ever consider living there. Drug dealers will buy them to run their business out of. But who would want to try to negotiate a sale with a drug dealer. The internet is a good place to research houses, but better find someone who knows the area and the area prices before you buy.
Maybe everyone that Judy sold a house to can sue her then. Judy should keep her friggin’ mouth shut, slap on some sunglasses and a large brimmed hat and keep a low profile.
“It seems to me they made an educated guess…..”
Hold it right there! Educated guess? I don’t think you need to be educated to do what they did. You only have to believe real estate always goes up, I guess.
“While the overall number of move-ins is up, Metrostudys Brad Hunter said that much of that could be fueled by renters. With investors unable to dump their properties, many are ’surviving by renting it out.’ Those homes may end up as ‘deferred supply’ and will return to the market in a few years.”
Yes - but can these investors rent out their properties to cover the mortgages and other costs??? In most cases, the answer is no.
Heck, the answer to that was no back in 2005. With all this oversupply on the market, it’s unlikely to have gotten better.
I live here in Winter Haven and single family home rents are EVERYWHERE.
Most of them are owned by absentee FB’s and Realtor(tm) asshat flippers…and many are on such tight margins that they can’t afford property managers to hawk their properties for them.
Thank Gawd I found a nice clean, quiet, modest 1000 sqft 2Bd/2Ba owned by a professional, retired landlord couple. No worries here….they own the place free and clear ( 15 years ) with no liens. I checked at the County Courthouse website before I moved in. I pay them modest rent on time, they flow cash and everybody is happy.
But if I were new to the area and looking to rent I would be VERY careful.
Heard a story here at work a few weeks ago from a young couple in Kissimmee who were renting a BRAND NEW home that, unknown to them, became foreclosed upon. Came home from work to be greeted with an Eviction by a process server. Their rent was paid in full….
They had 2 weeks to move out and find another place…this with a new baby in the house. They lost a $1500.00 deposit as well and the twentysomething “landlord” won’t answer his phone.
I would be very cautious about renting down here right now; especially single family homes owned by greedy Trump wannabees.
Central Florida is on the verge of a colossal bust.
“They lost a $1500.00 deposit as well and the twentysomething ‘landlord’ won’t answer his phone.”
Do I hear a new term? McLandlord??
McLandlord??
That’s a good one.
Guy sounds more like a McDouche.
MAYBE WE SHOULD DO CREDIT CHECKS ON LANDLORDS,..before you turn over $1500+ in deposits
“MAYBE WE SHOULD DO CREDIT CHECKS ON LANDLORDS”
Good plan. Mr Landlord, I need you to sign here and here allowing me to run a credit report on you.
Can you tell me why you’re currently 90 days past due on your mortgage? Why does it say your monthly payment is $2800 and you’re renting to me for $1400?
I mentioned this a few days ago, but a friend of mine who relocated here ot the DC area was looking for a place to rent. There are a lot of townhouses avialable for far less than buying would cost you, but we made sure when he rented that we checked out the landlord first, and we actually checked the mortgage and liens on the place he had in mind! Looked good — the landlord bought in 2002 or so and had a mortgage payment probably less than the rent. Good sign.
And so it comes to this: Landlords doing checks on prospective tenants, and tenants likewise doing checks on prospective landlords!
how do i check the landlord credentials, what is his lein and how much is his mortgage payment. please post the info
You can at least get some measure of security finding out how much the person paid for the property and when they bought it — that info is available on most county/city websites (look under “real estate” or “real estate tax/assessment” type links there).
I don’t know if mortgage info is as widely available online as that basic info.
Still - if someone has owned their place for 4 or 5 years or more - they are less of a risk than a recent purchaser. (unless they’ve HELOC’ed the heck out of the place). So, “less” of a risk, but not “no” risk.
Conversely - if someone has bought in the last couple years, at a high price - your odds of getting a lousy landlord are higher.
But - start by at least doing some research on your locality’s website.
Sam –
One thing I did this last time was make the signing of the lease conditional on the lender showing me their credit scores. They went for it - and they decided to ask for my score as well. I willingly obliged. Thus far, after 3 years, we’re very pleased with each other.
Credit scores show you a lot about how people live their lives and how responsible/conscientious they are over a long period of time.
OTOH reliance by lenders on credit scores as a substitute for underwriting is one of the things that is responsible for this mess.
I agree strongly. However, we’re now in the post-bubble pop period. It is now when credit scores will be diving as as a result of stupid decision-making both by lenders and FBs. In a year or two, anyone who owns property and has maintained a high credit score will be worth conducting business with. Everyone else will not, IMO.
If I buy property 2-3 years from now, it will be from such individuals. Their property values will have dropped yet the dealing/contract scenario will likely be on the up and up. I don’t want to screw with foreclosed properties or other such ilk in the future because that’s where the sharks will pool.
But soon it will only be the tenants doing the checking.
Got 10% down?
That’s a sad story. People like that landlord should be barred from borrowing money for the rest of their natural lives. Personally, I think his actions are tantamount to fraud.
What a phenomenal post! Les Pendens, this is great information for renters wanting to be smart with their money. Thank you.
1 address in SAN DIEGO, CA plus 1
6 addresses in NAPLES, FL
6 addresses in CHICAGO, IL
2 addresses in DEKALB, IL
2 addresses in JACKSONVILLE, IL
1 address in SAINT LOUIS, MO
1 business found
my landlord is so threatening as you all know, however, these are the properties he owns with his father.
lord how i pray he can’t pay his tax and his bills.
thank you HBB for helping me ride this out with humor.
Been there, done that. Rented from a divorcee when we first moved to Dallas in the early 80’s. Seems the divorce decree stipulated she either live in the house or sell it, and her ex soon found out she was renting it. The divorce court judge said, “Well, it appears that Mr. (me) doesn’t have a valid lease.” My wife was a basket case. We had to find something else pretty fast.
I echo the other sentiments expressed here.
Excellent cautionary tale. I’ve looked at a couple of houses for rent in my area. One owner, the principal of a local real estate firm, had one of her agents living in the house, but my wife and I visited anyway. The agent, a clueless new-to-the-party unshaven twentysomething wearing a wifebeater who kept mournfully saying “I hope the market comes back,” insisted to us that we could not be evicted if the house was sold or foreclosed upon. Good try.
I would say the deposit be put into a joint account requiring two signatures for withdrawal with the landlord to be returned upon cancellation of the lease?
I would also go as far as saying that the rent gets paid at the END of every month.
I guess depending on how desperate the owner is to rent will determine how much negotiation can be done on this to protect yourself.
With our upcoming move to Florida this summer/fall we will be looking to rent. I do NOT want to be featured on this site as another screwed renter story.
Does anyone have any other ideas on how one could protect themselves?
Know your landlord or his employers personally. In my case, his best client for home renovations was one of my kindergarten classmates. This is not perfect protection, but it makes him wish to appear honorable.
Thank you Les for the tale…..my lease is up shortly and I am planning to rent from a FB. So now I have decided that I will only pay deposits in ESCROW and will need to find some bank or escrow account in the area. I have some friends who are renting condo from a FB and I hope it works out for them.
Casey and his ilk are NOT someone you’d want as a landlord.
Here is a “local real estate expert” Realtor (TM) who maintains “a sharp eye on the market” in Fort Myers. For posterity, we should know this article was updated April 28, 2007. In the fall of this year his buyers are going to want to get that sharp object out of their eye, it is going to be painful! (By the fall of this year, this article may not even be available archived.)
People, Realtors (TM) are NOT financial planers! They are commissioned salespersons cloaked in the guise of fiduciaries!
http://tinyurl.com/264pdq
Location Characteristics: I maintain a sharp eye on the market and I’m ready for what some are saying will be a steady increasing market, and eventually a boom market, with potentially, a decade or more of duration.
Got 10% down?
Heck, I don’t trust financial planners!
I don’t either! (I plan my own finances, TYVM.)
From the article linked by tcm_guy:
“And why wouldn’t this happen?! It is clear that there is no better area than South Lee County to own real estate over the next 20 years. With the opening in 2006 of not one but two class A shopping malls, the anticipated opening of the Imperial Road / Three Oaks Parkway extension, the I-75 widening to begin later this year and recent expansion and new terminal building at South West Florida International Airport we have quickly become the most desirable primary and secondary home location in South West Florida.”
The highway is wider? New shopping centers?!?! It MUST be different here!
“Amanda Gates, for example, knew her landlord bought three condos at CrossWynde and needed tenants fast. He wanted $850 a month for the one-bedroom condo. Gates and her husband talked him down to $700. ‘We knew he didn’t have anyone else,’ Gates said.”
- And when their lease is up (or even before), they can talk him down to $600, because he still won’t have anyone else.
Florida is truly a basket case. Two years ago my wife and I were driving south in Florida along the coast south of Tampa. We passed a crappy looking wood-sided two-story apartment building which was perpendicular to the beach (so only the two end units were actually on the water). In front was a large sign proclaiming “Luxury Condominium Units for Sale”. I wouldn’t have taken one as a gift . I wonder how many flippers bought one and are now stuck. Serves them right!
That sounds like Anna Maria Island.
This is off Minyanville B&B this a.m.
Anecdotal evidence on housing …
Obviously, names are not used here to protect the innocent. “Nothing but the facts, Ma’am.”
And here are the facts. I spoke with two major builders yesterday. Keep in mind I live in Orlando, the place where we supposedly had a secular trend, never to be disturbed, in housing.
Guess what they both told me . . .
One said, “We can’t sell a house.”
The other said, “We sold one house in April - this is like 1984.”
Enough said.
I still expect a major bankruptcy or two in this industry before it’s all over. Their balance sheets are awful.
“this is like 1984.”
And not just in real estate.
How about a word from our sponsor?
“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”
George Orwell
Testify, Brothah! So true, these days.
“War is evil, but it is often the lesser evil.” - George Orwell
“We sleep safe in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm.” - George Orwell
Who are your favorite bk candidates? I liked WCI until Carl messed things up; now it is HOV and LEN.
After years of living in the same state as LEN, I would say never bet against them. I would never have thought they could have lasted as long as they did. Even if they bk, you can bet the principals have millions socked away somewhere.
Late to the party with this comment, but worst balance sheets are probably KBH and BZH. Of the biggies, one of those two, or maybe Horton or Pulte, will be the first to implode. It will happen, with a week or two’s stutter-step warning at best.
TX, when did you move to Orlando, I thought you were in Dallas for some reason…..
Moral Hazard of Mortgage Mess:
http://biz.yahoo.com/brn/070430/21762.html?.v=1&.pf=personal-finance
“Besides, he said, the complaint filed by the Schmidts didn’t name specific flaws in the appraisals. ‘The allegations are so vague and confusing we really can’t tell what they’re saying.’”
“William Thompson, the Schmidts’ attorney, said he’ll be revising the complaint to be more specific, but it’s clear the couple was defrauded with the help of bad appraisals. ‘We’re alleging fraud and conspiracy by all of the players to bilk these people.’ he said.”
The rampant collusion between real estate agents, builders, L/O’s, and appraiser’s has now rendered the system as 100% untrustworthy.
The historical application of real estate appraisaling traditionally has been to “protect the public”. However the the lending system’s acquiescence to incompetence, dishonesty, and fraud has destroyed this mission.
Government oversight and nonregulation of the independant mortgage industry is ultimately to blame.
It will take years for the system to recover.
“It will take years for the system to recover.”
Testify, Brothah! As Florida loses population, I envision a day when people will be “re-settled” out of failed developments to fill up some developments and then abandon and plow under other developments. This will be done in the name of the environment and “conservation of resources”. I find it very interesting that adverse environmental phenomena seems to be happening at a widespread, alarming rate. Thus, the environmental destruction that has come with the bubble is accompanied by new mandates for the environment. It is inevitable. As government services erode, if people want water to drink, they’ll have to concentrate in neighborhoods where they can be served.
If the FB’s can prove that the appraisal was a fraud when they bought than they might have a legal point ,but FB’s can’t complain just because the market went down .Any appraisal experts want to make money on court cases ?
“Any appraisal experts want to make money on court cases ?”
Dimedropped is way ahead of the curve on that one. After years of suffering because lenders and brokers wouldn’t give an honest appraiser the time of day if they had seven watches on them, he’s in clover doing forensic appraisals. Way to go, dimedropped! You’re my hero!
Any appraisal experts want to make money on court cases.
I have witnesses within 5 years a complete wholescale degeneration of the residential appraisal profession.
The incomptenance is mind-blowing.
The various state government deliberately set the licensing bar at a low levels so that their worthless department’s of employment could fill quota’s.
I remember a bud sittin’ in a cont. ed course listening to a couple of guys in the back of him, asking each other about exactly WTF the instructor was talking about.
So he turns around and asks them where they came from…
In reply he gets…”Oh, we’re a couple of state DOT dump truck driver’s collectin’ disability which is about to run out.
The job counselor said we ought to get over into the appraisal business, because according to him, “these people are making a killing with nothing more than a HS degree.
State’s payin’ for all our education and licensing fees too.
So here we are!”
And so here “WE” are, as taxpayers soon to pay out billions for a f*cked system of liars, cheats, and incompetants, all aided and abetted by inept and ineffectual government.
here’s another cautionary tale for Florida. If you live in the central part of the state in the midst of overdevelopment, get ready for some really major pain in the form of flooding. The topography of Florida is that of a shallow bowl, believe it or not the coastal ridges are higher than the interior. I was just reading in my AAA magazine about new flood maps and how, due to development, areas that did not flood at one time, may very well flood now and some areas that had minor flooding, may become worse. This is already happening in Lakeland, where some older, but relatively nice mobile home and modest retirement developments are seeing flooding after even modest rainfall. Snakes and gators in the living room.
“Snakes and gators in the living room.”
Free meat in tough times!
Chip, LMAO! Man, I just spit my lunch on the computer!
One of the issues is that swamps and wetlands are being filled to build shopping centers. Thus, the runoff is worse in areas now where the rainwater must go after summer rains.
I can’t believe the people who build in swamps and then complain about the rain. Good thing those trailers sit on blocks or a lot more would be flooded.
Palmetto, remember last July when 291 acre Scott Lake (near Lakeland)drained, the result of a bigass sinkhole? It was a private lake surrounded by rich folks-the creme-de-creme of Lakeland high society. Instant waterfront to stinky mudflat lots views.
“Strop questioned whether the Schmidts, Judy Schmidt is a real estate agent, were simply bad businesspeople. ‘It seems to me they made an educated guess, and then it didn’t pan out,’ he said. ‘Why is that anybody’s fault? If they’d gambled and won, nobody would ever have heard from them.’”
Hmmm. Judy Schmidts a RE agent?
and now a victim?
Someone please pass me a shoe.
(Cluck) Don’t play us like fools.
Robert & Judy Jingleheimer Schmidt
Their 8 houses are toast too
Whomever they try and sue to get out
The people always shout
There goes Robert & Judy Jingleheimer Schmidt
Dah dah dah dah, dah dah dah
Wonderful, aladinsane. I would’ve thought the final comma would be after the third “dah” (just before the musical downbeat), but who’s to quibble.
ha…
All those camp tunes in my head~
How likely were the Schmidt’s loan applications on the up and up for 8 houses ?
In a case where a buyer buys new construction and the market prices go down during the construction period, why wasn’t the contract subject to a appraisal at the time of the completed home ?People entered into one-sided contracts and now they are crying the blues . Your stupid if you don’t leave yourself a out in case market conditions change .
OT, sorry, but very excited here in Philly ‘burbs today. I had been bummed out that what I perceived to be a way overpriced home at $700k sold in its first few days on the market not far from where I’d like to live. Just learned that it sold for $610K. Still on the high side, but it was great to see that the buyers seem to be getting balls, sellers seem to be getting smarter, and prices are coming down. Wow, and it was supposed to be different here!
Yes, Mikey, I am beginning to see some heartening sales info, too, in the outlying areas of Tampa, most notably in Pasco and Hernando counties. Some lower end homes (we’re talking under $100,000, which I realize might sound a bit unreal to those in Cali and the Northeast, but keep in mind I’m talking parts of Florida other than metro Miami and Orlando) that inflated dramatically during the bubble have gone back to 2000 levels already. Awesome. My dream of owning a little Florida concrete box outright might come sooner than I think.
“…a little Florida concrete box…”
Palmetto — you have enough experience to look only at CB homes. It amazes me how many gringos will buy the stick-built houses that have been thrown up across the state. Many of them don’t even have a stucco cut. The pilgrims should watch carefully what a tornado (or hurricane) does to a stick house versus its concrete-block neighbor.
I was told long ago that wood frame houses actually often hold up better in hurricanes because of their pliability. When Andrew hit Miami, it was mostly developments of concrete block homes that were leveled, but I’m still dubious that all this damage was done by the hurricane, and not by tornadoes within the hurricane. Concrete block will not survive a strong tornado hit.
On the other hand, wood houses get termites, and here in Florida, are built with junk and stapled together.
If I were living in a place that gets hurricanes, I’d have a monolithic dome house. As it is, I live in Tornado Alley, so I have a tornado shelter.
Why would a foreclosure agent evict tenants that are paying their rent? They are not going to be able to sell the houses either. Wouldn’t it make more sense to offer the existing tenants a new lease?
Possibly yes, but whatever money the tenant paid to the “landlord” before, would not count towards the rental payments that are due to the new landlord.
If they’d gambled and won, nobody would ever have heard from them.
Are you kidding?? They’re Real Estate Agents FFS, this is the dream they sell.
If they’d gambled and won they would have told the whole World about it.
I had been bummed out that what I perceived to be a way overpriced home at $700k sold in its first few days on the market not far from where I’d like to live. Just learned that it sold for $610K.
The question is, is it still overpriced at $610K?
The answer is yes.
Oh, yes, it’s still overpriced at $610K, but a little over a year ago it would have sold for $725K in a bidding war. I still have 2003 eyes that don’t account for inflation, so I see it as a $350K home (lol).
At CrossWynde Condominiums…
Is a law that all condo developments must have stupid names?
“Is a law that all condo developments must have stupid names?”
Yes.
Street names too. Here in Maryland, we call Columbia in Howard coutnty, “The land of stupid street Names.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “This comes from an insider in the downtown condo market: ‘The downtown market is ‘immature’ and is only receptive to products in the mid to high $200K. Past that threshold, there are very few buyers. This is not Manhattan after all.’”
the problem to me(single/45000 a year) is none are listed below 200k.
Yet.
One of my favorite words.
First, Banks historically make the dumbest investments. Never follow a bank. I would be very nervous holding property in my bank portfolio right now.
More importantly, I think there is a shift in buyer mentality. Most people do not want to get socked with high mortgage payments or taxes anymore. People want to downsize or not move period. They also want sellers to suffer.
“They also want sellers to suffer.”
That’s an interesting observation and probably true, across a broader spectrum than the MSM would ever acknowledge.
I must admit that it is true in my case only if and I mean only if the seller still thinks the house prices will only go up. If you are in denial and try to sell me your place (my case, a friend said he’ll leave the RE agent out to save me money). Tragically, I don’t have the courage to tell him so, and respectfully decline his offer.
I am starting to hear the proverbial shoeshine boy questioning the wisdom of today’s house prices. I think you are right, we are getting to the Other Side.
There is a point in a market in which everyone recognizes the danger and reacts. Students of Elliott would call it the a third wave. It is simply the crash wave where everyone sees the dip in prices will not recover. We are fast approaching that stage. Even “shoe shine” boys will see it. It is after this crash as an investment is looked upon in complete disdain and betrayal that the market bottoms. My best guess 2010-2012.
There are two waves of subprime and alt a loans.
The first peaks in early 2008. The first will be in 12 months. There will be a settling down of these resets rates into late 2008. This is probablhy the basis for some estimates of improvement after a bad 2007. Then a new rise in the resets into late 2009-2010.
It is probable that post 2008’s election interest rates will rise under dollar weakness pressure smashing realestate across the board. Have a nice day.
Yes, definitely EW3 down (i.e., the big one).
No golf.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/content/local_news/epaper/2007/05/01/0501golfcourse.html
Central Florida sellers are still in a fog. They still think everyone wants to move to the their vacation land. What they don’t get is that many many many baby boomers cannot afford to move because they’ve lost a lot of their retirement and must keep working where they are. They’ve mortgaged their houses to the hilt and have no equity. We were planning on buying a house in the south after retirement next year, however the houses we looked at are almost 2 1/2 times what they were in 2003. Guess we’ll just rent until prices get real. What I really don’t get is can’t these idiot sellers see the for sale signs every other house. How do they ever think they can compete with all these other sellers not counting all the foreclosures in the area?
“The top of the market, $500,000 plus, has been hit the hardest. Among the foreclosures in Manteca is a large custom home in the Mt. Vernon neighborhood near Shasta Park that two years ago would have sold for $780,000. It’s available now for $560,000.”
Well I got a qualified bid for ya…. $275k
LOL!