You Can’t Lose What You Never Had
The Manteca Bulletin reports from California. “It is a tidy, sharp looking home. The Mossdale neighborhood west of Interstate 5 is clean and desirable. It has more than 2,200 square feet of bright living space and is less than two years old. If you had bought it 15 months ago you would have paid in excess of $600,000.”
“Now that home bought with 100 percent financing is in foreclosure. The lender is willing to take $379,900.”
“The go-go days of new home sales in Mossdale Landing 18 months to two years ago makes it susceptible to the sub-prime loan failures. Realtors said an inordinate number of new homes had unconventional financing often at 100 percent.”
“There were 586 notices of default sent to homeowners in the first three months of 2006 throughout San Joaquin County. That amount jumped by 193.7% in the first quarter of this year to 1,721 such notices.”
“‘People going into foreclosure today aren’t losing their jobs nor did they have income reduced,’ noted Steve Roland of the Real Estate Group. ‘They were simply living beyond their means.’”
“Carol Bragan, another Realtor with extensive knowledge of the Manteca market, doesn’t mince words. ‘It’s scary,’ she said.”
“The top of the market, $500,000 plus, has been hit the hardest. Among the foreclosures in Manteca is a large custom home in the Mt. Vernon neighborhood near Shasta Park that two years ago would have sold for $780,000. It’s available now for $560,000.”
“Bragan noted that Del Webb and new-home builders are going to keep building because they have to recoup their investment in improvements that are put in place at the front-end of projects.”
“And those new home buyers aren’t messing around. One model in Kennsington Place at Louise Avenue and Cottage Way was slashed almost $100,000 to jump-start sales. Builders also are tossing in incentives in upgrades and such that approach $$60,000 in some cases. That is also creating stiff competition for existing home sales.”
“Sales activity in Lathrop has dropped almost 70 percent in the fist four months of this year compared to the same period last year. Sales in Manteca are just a bit better being off about 60 percent.”
“‘It’s a black hole,’ said Realtor Tom Wilson in reference to foreclosures in the Mossdale area of Lathrop. Wilson noted those on the sidelines shouldn’t panic at all about dropping prices.”
“‘You can’t lose what you never had,’ (he said) of equity losses.” ‘It only counts when you go to sell.’”
From CNN Money. “Last summer Daniel Kim was feeling pinched. So when Kim, of San Leandro, Calif. got a call from a mortgage company, he was intrigued.”
“The loan officer, Mia Yi, sold Kim on refinancing, putting him an additional $81,000 in debt on his house. Kim says he was surprised he could borrow more. He had bought the two-bedroom the previous year for $560,000 with no money down.”
“According to an appraiser MONEY hired, Kim’s house is worth only $580,000 and was at the time he refinanced the house.”
“Yi strongly suggested to appraisers what the answer ought to be. In an e-mail she sent to numerous appraisers, Yi said she needed ‘a value of $650,000 or more. Please let me know ASAP with max value.’ Five days later, an appraiser in Discovery Bay, produced the appraisal that led to Kim’s $642,000 mortgage, less than Yi wanted but enough to do a deal.”
“The result: Kim now owes $62,000 more than his house may be worth. Kim put the money from the refinancing into a business and paying off a car loan. He can’t move without foreclosing. ‘It’s not a good feeling,’ he says.”
The Orange County Register. “Purchase contracts for new single-family homes in Orange County increased 12.7 percent in March from the year before, but condo orders fell by 51.3 percent, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence reported today. Overall, pending new home sales fell 22.6 percent in March, according to.”
“The median single-family home price fell to $1.05 million, down 13.3 percent from $1.2 million in March 2006, the firm reported. The median condo price was $410,000, down 6.8 percent from $440,000.”
“The median price for town homes and plexes fell 10.7 percent to $559,990, Hanley Wood reported.”
The Union Tribune. “Four out of five indicators of economic activity in San Diego County declined sharply over the past several months, according to a report.”
“Residential construction in February was 54 percent lower than in February 2006. Between 2004 and 2006, the total valuation of home building in the county plunged by 36 percent.”
“New business licenses dropped 27 percent between February 2006 and February 2007. Overall, the number of new business licenses has fallen to its lowest level since March 2002.”
The North County Times. “San Diego County’s housing market will continue to be flat for at least another year, and it could get worse before it gets better if spiking foreclosures dump a large number of properties on the market, an UCLA economist said Tuesday.”
“‘I think you’ll start seeing light at the end of the tunnel next year,’ said economist Ryan Ratcliff, who specializes in regional forecasts for the closely followed UCLA Anderson Forecast.”
“‘The bad news is that a new source of weakness has started to emerge: Default and foreclosure rates in San Diego are nearing levels not seen since the darkest days of the 1990s,’ Ratcliff wrote in the report.”
“During the first three months of the year, the foreclosure rate reached 10 for every 10,000 households in the county, one that matches the highest level recorded in 1997, at the end of last decade’s extended recession, the report showed.”
“Meanwhile, notices that people were behind on mortgages went out to nearly 40 families for every 10,000 households in the first quarter of this year, compared wtih 50 per 10,000 households at the depths of the recession in early 1996.”
“‘Does ’90s-level foreclosures mean ’90s-style depreciation?’ Ratcliff asked the crowd. ‘So far the answer is no. But it’s too early to tell.’”
“The number of construction jobs fell 9,000 from the June 2006 peak to 86,600 during the first three months of this year, the report stated. The slowdown in construction rippled into the retail sector, which lost 2,600 jobs between the first quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007.”
The Sacramento Bee. “For a while, the pace of growth shot through the roof, but Lincoln, the little city that could, has lost some of its steam, reflecting a downturn in the region’s once-booming housing market.”
“No more bragging rights. ‘I guess not,’ said Rod Campbell, director of community development for the Placer County city. ‘It’s a little bit indicative of the housing market, that’s for sure,’ said Campbell.”
The Contra Costa Times. “East Bay homeowners who bought in the height of the housing market during the past two years and worry their home lost value could get some property tax relief, provided an appraisal can back it up, officials said.”
“Contra Costa County Assessor Gus Kramer said that this year his office has received about 400 requests from homeowners to reappraise their property and estimated that an additional 4,000 residential properties would be reassessed.”
“Property tax rollbacks have been big news since Sacramento County Assessor Kenneth Stieger announced that about 50,000 homeowners would have property taxes cut as much as 10 percent, which could cost about $15 million in revenue to public coffers.”
When will Bakersfield hit 3000 NODs? 2008 or this December?
We are averaging 100-150 per week… I hope we survive - LMAO!!
Hey Crisp:
Just got off of realtor.com for Tehachapi. Prices are still waaay too high. Please let the REI in Kern County know that prices cuts of $10k are not going to cut it. I am talking $100k drops. Price to earnings ratios are still out of whack. Thanks
~Misstrial
Oh good grief, they should be paying people like us just to take homes off their hands in Tehachapi. What the h e l l is there to do there? It’s dozens of miles from the nearest sign of life.
Fun facts about Tehachapi:
“Migrations of turkey vultures use the Tehachapi Pass, and are counted annually by the Tehachapi Mountains Birding Club.”
They will be happy to have lots of FB to feed on…
===========================
“On July 21, 1952 Tehachapi was devastated by a magnitude 7.5 (Richter scale) earthquake (USGS, SCEC) on the little known White Wolf fault. Unreinforced brick buildings resulted in major building destruction at that time, but have now long since been outlawed in California building codes.”
Property is going fast….
=================
“Perhaps the largest employer in Tehachapi is the California Correctional Institution (CCI), which is a high-security prison for males. The prison held only female criminals prior to the 1952 earthquake. At one time land east of the city along Highway 58, designated “Capital Hills”, was envisioned to become a site for cutting edge research and technologies development as well as new residential areas. Such plans never came to fruition, however, and the area has yet to develop or attract businesses involved in technology and research, with only the post office, a Holiday Inn, a Texaco gas station and Denny’s located in the area.”
=======================
And finally, these noble words from the city manager:
“In an effort to build THE premier community in which to live and do business, the City employees and the City Council will commit to work in concert with our citizens to maintain the highest professional and ethical standards possible; maintain quality in all areas of our performance; and continually raise the standards throughout our community, all in the goal of increasing the quality of life for our citizens.”
Yeah, they should pay us. I’d move there for free, though.
I remember well the Tehachapi earthquake of 1952. The doors in the house all started slamming, my mother grabbing us and putting us in the hallway and closing the doors around it. She’d been in Long Beach in that town’s 1933 earthquake and thought it was happening again. My father went running outside where he said he could see the sidewalks and streets rising and falling with the earthquake waves as they passed.
I really miss California. I really do, earthquakes and all, it was once upon a time a beautiful place to live.
lol!
~Misstrial
“‘People going into foreclosure today aren’t losing their jobs nor did they have income reduced,’ noted Steve Roland of the Real Estate Group. ‘They were simply living beyond their means.’”
Not really. Inflated and hyped up housing prices were at fault.
those darn house prices, when will they stop pestering the pocketbooks of those poor torturred victims.
Dont discount the culpability of the consumer. Shameless greed had a lot to do with it.
Gullibility.
yep……silly me… hang on, my house price is pestering my pocketbook
The Manteca Bulletin reports from California. “It is a tidy, sharp looking home. The Mossdale neighborhood west of Interstate 5 is clean and desirable. It has more than 2,200 square feet of bright living space and is less than two years old. If you had bought it 15 months ago you would have paid in excess of $600,000.”
“Now that home bought with 100 percent financing is in foreclosure. The lender is willing to take $379,900.”
hehehe…
Only another $80k to go for a 50% market haircut.
Get another pair sold at that level and you’ll have 3 of a kind for comps to put in an appraisal report.
Look out below!!!!
I’m failing to see the difference between “living beyond their means” and the fact that they bought or refi’ed into “inflated and hyped up housing prices”?
Sorry, they lived beyond their means and were gambling that their house would continue to appreciate.
Eas y Credit - Liar Loans are the problem
“‘How can you give a 30-year loan on a paid-off house to an 82-year-old person?’ the plaintiffs’ Manhattan-based lawyer, Jacob Zamansky,
Personally I don’t see a problem here. Lots of people are now living to be 112 to 120 years of age especially with new medicines, health care and life support.
And they are likely to work until they are 120 or so, given the negative national savings rate and the decreasing likelihood that Social Security and corporate pensions will suffice to keep them going…
“‘Does ’90s-level foreclosures mean ’90s-style depreciation?’ Ratcliff asked the crowd. ‘So far the answer is no. But it’s too early to tell.’”
Yesterday’s SD Union Tribune headline story quoted Ratcliff saying that 2007 San Diego prices were essentially back to 2004 levels, and the median sale price has declined by 5% off the peak. How is that different from ’90s style depreciation?’
’90s style depreciation?’
Once it goes back to 2001-2002 then its 90s style.
Which it will !!! If this is half way (3yrs) then we are
still on target. We will see 2000 prices if not 1999 prices
in San Franicso Bay Area.
Prices went up over 150% from 1997 to 2000. They will decline.
Oh great 1999!…then we’ll ‘only’ have to pay 500K for a 45yr old 3/2 1200 sq ft house in Half Moon Bay.
90’s style depreciation at least let you listen to Nirvana or something…
Nirvana? That would be “90’s style depression”.
“In Russia they just put a monkey heart into a person”
“Did he live longer?”
“No, but its just exciting that they are doing things like that”
“In Russia they just put a monkey heart into a person”
“Did he live longer?”
Yes, and suddenly wanted to hump footballs….
and developed a penchant for throwing feces at people on the other side of the fence.
I got a 30 year loan 5.25%fixed no pts when I was 70 and my wife 68. The lenders can’t discriminate. It’s my only write off.The kids can put renters in the house when we become room temperature.The 82 yr old was probably incompetent and the lender should be taken to task for that. Don’t bail out stupid people.Caveat emptor.
“Lots of people are now living to be 112 to 120 years of age especially with new medicines, health care and life support.”
Rubish! Dumb remark! Ever see these people… the day i cant get up and take a crap by my self and wipe my own ass is the day I die. Many of these people live in a bed 24/7/365.
Get over it and die, there are lots of idiots wishing for a cure to death. Everone dies do it with some respect for your self.
Hello, Hello.
i was trying make light of something very sad like being 112-120 and still having a mortgage? unless your last name is buffet!
Hello
Actually, if you are 100, why not HELOC your house to zero equity and party the money away. Then you will have at least SOME people crying at your funeral (i.e. the lender).
It’s called a reverse mortgage, and yeah, not a bad idea. Though I plan on taking up extreme sports when I’m a geezer so I don’t live to 120 and have a house to leave to my kids or charity if my kids end up as jerks.
Hmm. How do you plan to commit suicide? You can’t just die. Believe me, there are lots of old people waiting to die, but they draw the line at suicide. It’s not their fault. Honestly, sometimes you say the stupidest things.
A rolling stone gathers no Mossdale Landing…
Mossdale Landing is prime flood plain. There is no moss because the stone is river bottom.
It’s funny that people express surprise at paying flood insurnace in the Central valley. That’s when I like to whip out the topo map of the region and point out all the happy blue land in the middle.
Is she bragging?
“Carol Bragan, another Realtor with extensive knowledge of the Manteca market, doesn’t mince words. ‘It’s scary,’ she said.”
I was trying to figure out exactly what she thought was scary.
Maybe she had a date with imploder?
“If you had bought it 15 months ago you would have paid in excess of $600,000. Now that home bought with 100 percent financing is in foreclosure. The lender is willing to take $379,900.”
That is just what they say they are willing to take (37% off the last asale price). I would guess that they may actually end up taking less, given buyer reluctance to catch falling knives.
Exactly Stucco. $379,900 is the MOST they will take. Funny stuff. When it gets to $00.01, that is the LEAST they will take.
$220,000 off the 2005 price? And many people doubted the 30-40% price reductions. There it is in black and white. And in 24 more months, it will get to $300,000 or less. 50% off.
GS & Jingle, This is just the beginning, but IMHO the drop will be to 1994 prices (in Manteca ~132K) adjusted for inflation minus 10% or ~150K. This drop is not going to occur in the short period of 2 - 5 yrs. The bank is trying to take a quick loss instead of riding it down. And as you both so appropriately pointed out, the $379,900 is just the new asking price. What is the bid?
Hoz…
Legitimate 2 way markets in things real estate might be aways away.
Hoz — I never thought you were more bearish than I am until recently. Now I am scared…
GS, I have been this bearish for years and hoped and prayed that I was wrong.
One of the reasons I do not post as often as in the past are the nearly continuous confirmations of items postulated 5 years ago, posted 2 years ago and updated last month/wk/yesterday.
I do not need to see the future developments to know that the curve is placed and the downward momentum has started. I have lived and traded through bubbles since the 1970s. Collapses follow the same path. There is no “its different this time, its housing” phenomena that will differentiate this collapse from railroads (1975) or the failed (failed because the Federal Reserve intervened) stock market collapse of March 2000 - March 2003. The biggest difference is stocks and bonds are liquid. Housing has never been and never will be liquid. It is very difficult to move a house across a state line or a country’s borders. As a result the stickiness on the way down will be the painful part. The current foreclosures are a drop in the bucket and the individuals in foreclosure at this time may be the lucky ones - with only a minimal loss of a few thousands, they have the opportunity to sit on the sidelines and watch.
IMHO The US is, unfortunately, BK. The dollar is going to go the way of all fiat currencies. Our reported national debt is ~9T and total federal debt and liabilities is ~54T. Our aging boomer population is 10 years from retirement and have (ion average) less than 40K saved. This countries advantages have been squandered over the last 20 years by short sighted policies at the expense of future returns. That is why jobs in manufacturing have been exported, why jobs in banking are being exported and why London will pass New York as the largest financial center (if it hasn’t already).
The next 15 years will be very ugly in the states, but I do think that the US will survive and end up as a better place. I have encouraged my older boys to move to New Zealand, Iceland or Norway. I have been in third world countries, I do not wish to live in one in the near future. In debt to the world, with no visible means of being able to pay it back, the US is turning into a third world country.
I apologize to any I offend or have offended by this rant.
I agree (I got my bearishness the old fashioned way also- by living through the severe economic collapse in Alaska in the mid-80s. Right up to the collapse, all you could hear was “It’s a natural law- land ALWAYS goes up in value”). Also, my father’s family lost all of their property in the Great Depression and ended up moving to the Matanuska colony in Alaska. Well, I am making my children learn foreign languages, becuase I don’t want them to be stuck here if all hell breaks loose (and I’m considering learning another besides Spanish, myself). That’s how pesemistic I have gotten. It IS like having a steerage cabin on the Titanic, but worse- I can see the iceberg and the captain can’t.
“I apologize to any I offend or have offended by this rant.”
You owe no apologies for the most diplomatic rant I have seen thus far on the HBB. Norway and Iceland sound cold and dark to me, though I am sure they are great places to live from the standpoint of the people who live there. However, New Zealand sounds like a better choice from the climate standpoint.
GS, we are used to ~200 inches of snow every winter and the work that entails!
NZ is nice, but don’t they discourage immigration? Maine is not so cold as Norway/Iceland, and housing in Maine is pretty cheap. I still have the problem of winter, and am kind of fed up with CA & AZ, but there’s always Mexico: third world, but I don’t have to move my assets to Mexico. Maine is not a good tax address. Considering PA.
I was a die hard bear myself, but I have a slightly more nuanced view of the world these days. The US is in a position to take advantage of the ridiculous growth of productivity enabled by the internet. But the consequence will be a growing wealth divide.
Sure this sounds like Greenspan in the mid 90s but… productivity is actually killing jobs this time around. Think about the travel agents, automated checkout machines, RFID, and stuff you never hear about like XML and technical standards that emerge and make jobs obsolete (Frontpage meant the end of the $70/hr HTML “programmer”).
I’m not suggesting that lower wages will mean higher home prices but I think stocks could do well as companies lay off workers and adopt productivity boosting technologies. Inflation isn’t > 15% only because technology is bringing down prices just as fast as the Fed prints money. Think Plasma TV prices applied to wages. CompUSA, Circuit City, etc. are all shrinking in the face of Walmart and online competition.
I’m not saying foreign wages aren’t bringing down ours but I work with people who contract jobs to India and it’s not a profit panacea. Wages in China and India are increasing to the point where it’s not worth negotiating at 3AM with people on the other side of the planet.
Case in point: I just got funding as a web startup. Costs are ridiculously low because servers are basically free and software has matured to the point where you don’t need a team of engineers to build powerful sites. Just 5 years ago we would have spent a few hundred thousand on servers and office space. The fact that we’re not spending the money is good for business in America which is relatively unencumbered by regulation but bad for the dozens of employees who would have benefited if we spent a ton of money on servers and associated widgets.
In short: The rich are going to get a lot richer, the poor are going to move to cheaper places than say San Diego after they’re foreclosed upon and the rich, in their exclusive locales, are going to have to automate all of the jobs that require a hard to find low wage worker. High end real estate does ok while the mid to low end does a Detroit.
My Uncle lost big time in Nanana, Alaska in 1986.
I seriously considered New Zealand after the 2004 election. They can be very restrictive on immigration but you can easily get in with a film crew and stay. I have a few friends that did.
You can contact the consulate and they’ll refer you to the NZ naturalization website. They explain who they will and won’t take. All I needed was 2 more years of university and they’d have taken me. They were short on professors.
Hoz, your “rant” sounds like it’s straight from “Empire of Debt”. I had a lot of respect for the ideas in that book until I subscribed to the “free” newsletter that the authors promote. The newsletter ended up being a daily slimeball advertisement for their paid services… I still liked the book I guess, but man, the authors really ruined their own reputation.
I spent a month in New Zealand in 2000 and almost bought a house there. NZ dollar was trading at USD .55. The realtor we were working with told us it was pretty easy to gain citizenship if you had a net worth of at least $500K.
New Zealand is an incredible place and the only country I would consider moving to, and I’ve visited a lot of countries (though none in Africa or S. America).
gwynster,
Do you happen to have a link to some NZ info? Maybe I need to check out NZ and AUS. I think I have a pudd’n'head in the degree pile somewhere that I can dust off.
FORGET Australia…
In the midst of a horrible drought. A no go.
If you have a dog, you won’t want to move to NZ. You have to leave your dog for (IIRC) six months or so in quarantine, in Christchurch.
Well, I did exactly what you are all talking about - gave it all up, sold the house, got all the money and moved to NZ in 2004. My wife and I (and our 15 year old daughter) wanted to change our lives and do the things we wanted to do for a living, rather than what we had to do. I am 5 months away from finishing my wine making degree, and am just finishing the 2007 vintage at Esk valley Estate in Hawke’s Bay. Had a few things going for me though, as my mother was a Kiwi and I have an NZ passport as well as US. We went through the whole immigration process for my wife (mucho dinero and lots of time) and got her a resident visa (turned out she didn’t need it because of my citizenship). The result? Things are different here. People respond differently, there isn’t the awful US desire for things. You get 4 weeks paid holiday your first year at work. They actually do vacations and are pretty serious about it. They are great people and don’t hold a grudge against Yanks because of Bush. The downside? Pretty far from friends and relatives; stuff does cost more (although total taxation is lower than America); the culture has to be learned; the usual fitting in problems; wages in my business aren’t great. Do it again? You bet. A beautiful country without too many people, wonderful open spaces, seriously nice people; pretty good social policies. Dental care is covered until kids are 18. You won’t go bankrupt if you get sick. Interest rates of 7.75% on bank deposits. No such thing as a 30 year fixed mortgage - only two or three year terms, then a new interest rate. Great wine. If there are more than 4 people on the entire beach it’s crowded. Come here for a visit and see for yourself.
NZ is nice, but don’t they discourage immigration?
They actively encourage skilled immigration. They use a “points” system in which you get points for various desirable traits: English proficiency, university degrees, work experience in a field in which they need workers. If you exceed their current threshold, you can qualify for a permanent residence visa (equivalent of US green card), and you don’t need a sponsor or even a job offer in order to qualify.
Australia and Canada have similar visas for skilled migrants. The requirements are not all that high - I exceed the point threshold for all three countries, at age 37 with 10 years experience as an electrical/software engineer and a master’s degree in that field.
I do think there are a few supports that keep us from going total 3rd world.
We have massive farm land, so we don’t have to import food, just stop turning it all into ethanol (there is a topic for another time, total waste o money). If the dollar gets too weak, we’ll be able to undercut every maket in the world for corn, grains and vegies.
We have resources. Metals, coal, cotton, tobacco, natural gas, hydro-electric, timber, yes even oil. We choose to import because it is cheaper labor overseas. Most 3rd world contries import because they have to.
What we’re going to see is inflation outpacing investment returns and wage growth. The slow and steady erosion of savings and purchasing power.
We’re going to see higher tax rates to pay more social security. We’re going to get government managed medical.
We’re going to see a shift from “having more” to being happier with what we have. More manditory time off, more government dictated employee benefits.
Hoz,
Far from being offensive, I think your posts are some of the most informed and accurate posts on the HBB.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and opinions with us!
I have a question regarding New Zealand. Is there a need for R.N.’s there?
I agree CA renter. Enjoy reading Hoz.
Thanks also to others for sharing the NZ info.
“$379,900 is just the new asking price. What is the bid?”
Great observation and analysis. This blog is saving me a ton of money.
What’ll be great is rich neighborhoods like Scotts Valley having foreclosures and empty houses attracting vagrants, graffiti and squatters.
Nice. The career hobo will return for the new millenium, just like the 1930’s version but sporting a PDA and cell phone. No sweat. Find a foreclosure in a rich California neighborhood where the electricity is kept on by the bank, tap into a nearby wireless router and bingo, Web Hobo.
A Wobo?
“‘It’s a black hole,’ said Realtor Tom Wilson in reference to foreclosures in the Mossdale area of Lathrop. Wilson noted those on the sidelines shouldn’t panic at all about dropping prices.”
Look kids never take advice from a seller.
Kind of a funny phrase, “those on the sidelines.” His ensuing remarks shows that what he means is, “those living in houses that they don’t need to sell.” I wouldn’t say they are on the sidelines. They are being beaten up, perhaps more so if they don’t sell than if they do.
I don’t know how many of you have ever been to Manteca, but for those of us who grew up in the valley, the idea that you could pay $600,000 for a house there defies credulity.
Manteca used to have a peculiar odor due to a sugar beet processing plant or some such thing. This was a well known aspect of the town. Nobody who had a choice lived in Manteca. And pay that kind of money for a house there? That’s just “mind-bottling.”
Who would want to even live in town called LARD.
Exactly! Why anyone would pay $600k to live there is beyond words. Not even the local MDs, attys, or dentists could afford $600k. Not only that, but the schools there are crap. And doesn’t Manteca mean “pork fat” or something similar??? (Note to self: ask hubby for the translation.)
~Misstrial
“Exactly! Why anyone would pay $600k to live there is beyond words. Not even the local MDs, attys, or dentists could afford $600k. Not only that, but the schools there are crap. And doesn’t Manteca mean “pork fat” or something similar??? (Note to self: ask hubby for the translation.)”
Dictionary.com definition of Manteca:
A city of central California south of Stockton. It is a processing center in an agricultural area. Population: 61,400.
SpanishDict.com’s definition: LARD (as krills said)
It was the Spreckel’s Sugar plant just off 99. In the ’70’s my car broke down right in the middle of the drift - damn near died. Manteca had no reason to grow, except that Bay Area transplants could sell their overpriced POS on the bay for a half-priced POS in the valley. Most seemed to forget that jobs here paid half as much too, so now 10’s of 1000’s drive 2 hours (or more) each way back over the Altamont to pay for their country lifestyle.
Losing 4+ hours a day of your life to pay for a dropping assest can’t be much fun.
“The odor from Manteca…”
I heard someone call it “Man-stink-a”.
Not sure if this was posted already but this is from Freddie Mac:
McLean, VA – “In the first quarter of 2007, 82 percent of Freddie Mac-owned loans that were refinanced resulted in new mortgages with loan amounts that were at least five percent higher than the original mortgage balances, according to Freddie Mac’ quarterly refinance review. The revised share for the fourth quarter of 2006 was also 82 percent.”
Lots and lots of people are continuing to take cash out mortgages. More burning the furniture to stay warm.
HMMMMM…
Maybe this is their plan (found this on another board):
“My husband and I found the perfect house out here in So. Cal. and got a great deal because it’s a short sale. We are due to close on May 10th but the sellers are asking for more time in the house. We turned them down but now it looks like they are going to stay even though they signed a contract to be out on the 10th! They are some seriously shady people (refinanced the house, took out 100K, then told the bank they couldn’t pay anymore, will walk away with 100K extra in their bank account, haven’t paid the bank mortgage payments since November last year) and I’m afraid they will either a) seriously trash the place or b) make us do some sort of eviction process. Has anyone ever been in this place? Any ideas on how to prevent them from becoming squatters?”
Dr. Hibbard consults on the matter:
“I prescribe fire. And lots of it!”
Bwwwaaahhhaaa now that’s too funny. No matter the market Buyer Beware. Never buy a short sell unless it’s vacant. When are people going to learn. Everybody wants to be a big time real estate god. LOL sheesh.
I wonder these are the neighbors who are trying to short sell with the late night mariachi music here in Ventura..I can only take so much of that music..After a few shots of tequila it’s not so bad though. Enough is enough though. If your gonna buy a house for 620,000, please at least be able to afford a freaking lawnmower or pay a gardener. I can’t wait for them to leave this area.
1) Report them to the IRS.
http://www.moneycentral.msn.com/content/Taxes/Avoidanaudit/P42263.asp
2. Unlawful Detainer action. The realtors probably know of a good UD atty. Forms for California do-it-yourselfers are on courtinfo.ca.gov
In CA, $700. is a bargain rate for UDs start-to-finish (real estate atty). For service of process incl. and done right, the process takes about 30 days (depending on when matter is calendared.)
~Misstrial
Spot on Misstrail, but it would annoy folks greatly to have to wait 30 days to get into their house and what if it’s contested or can it be contested in that specific set of circumstances.
Not just any house, their perfect house.
And they’re still going to close knowing they have to deal with the dogsh*t lowlifes?
Oh this is great info. This is why I love this board. We’ll (hopefully) be looking around Xmas or early next year to pick up a foreclosure from an FB who will have to be dragged kicking and screaming horizontally from the front door frame of their house.
…over their hardwood floors and granite whatever.
Same thing happened to me in 1975. I just told the agent if they weren’t out on the date in the contract I wouldn’t close.
They were out on time.
these people never should have been able to buy, therefore they never should have had home equity, therefore they never should have spent a penny - truly they can’t lose what they never really had
taxpayers = bagholders
“‘I think you’ll start seeing light at the end of the tunnel next year,’ said economist Ryan Ratcliff, who specializes in regional forecasts for the closely followed UCLA Anderson Forecast.”
That “light at the end of the tunnel” will be the oncoming 120-car freight train of foreclosures.
Seriously, though, why do those idiots at UCLA find themselves squawking so much more these days? Are they flippers too? They’ve been ususually vocal trying to paint a rosy picture on a tanking housing market.
yeah, we’ve noticed - very odd that they are so out there being stupid!!!
I like the shift from “soft landing” and “souffle” to “start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel”. What’s next? “It was only a small iceberg” or “We have lifeboats for more than half of the passengers”?
And to answer your question: someone posted the list of sponsors for UCLA Anderson. I think the answer boils down to “Don’t bite the hand that feeds you”.
“start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel”
Someone please tell me its not a train.
No time to speak, no time to explain.
those guys have not been to the PNW in over a year, Im a little pissed.
I saw them here in San Diego last year, although it sounds like they are starting another touring cycle in Europe. If you don’t have ‘Greatest Hits Redux’ I highly recommend it.
The only semi-bear there was Thornberg, and he split a month or so ago, if my memory serves me right? Probably got too much of the ra ra bs from Anderson?
The Anderson people are only slightly less bent over to the REIC than my brothers on campus at the USC Lusk Center.
I really believe they believe they can press hype life back into this dead horse. This is so obviously false information that these so called experts are putting out there. What factual information are these studies based on?
Hey!!! Don’t you know they are the facts as they make them up!!!
Where is Neil! I want some POPCORN…….
HMMMM… Is there not a concept of “responsible reporting” left in American Press? (rhetorical question)
“Last summer Daniel Kim was feeling pinched. So when Kim, of San Leandro, Calif. got a call from a mortgage company, he was intrigued.”
“According to an appraiser MONEY hired, Kim’s house is worth only $580,000 and was at the time he refinanced the house.”
That is probably an out and out lie … the home is not worth the 580K appraisal.
San Leandro, CA you would find a 2000 sq ft home for under $200K in 1997. So now its nearly $600K LOL! I dont think so.
At 4.5% appreciation/inflation historical this home isnt worth more than $265K. $580K or even $325K is a real fairyland.
This decade will go down as when HomeBuyers lost all “reason and accountability”. That will be painfull for many.
Don’t forget median for that neighborhood is low. Not many people with 6 figure incomes live there.
Infact I’m an engineer and I don’t know any engineer who claims to live in SL.
I know one who just bought a house/moved there.
6 figures? I don’t think so.
BayQT~
Maybe if you count the cents, it’s six figures
its a world wide event. East Europe it doesn’t matter! Was looking at a small ranch in the middle of Canada for 200K! 200K! LOL. covered with snow 9 months out of the year! LOL
speculating on global warming
Why not sell buisness, hopefully, it has appreciated because of Kims hardwork. Get a job, if nothing else works out foreclose.
He wants to move and has a buisness which is brick & mortar, I smell a rat’s ass here.
When I get calls from mortgage companies, I treat them like any other telemarketing event: I hang up.
Right, how can anyone be “intrigued” by a call from a mortgage company? Their computers call every residential phone in the country a few times a week, don’t they?
az_lender: LOL! You pointed out the obvious thing I didn’t see - very funny!
Oh woo is me…I signed loan papers I didn’t read and never understood. I helped people make money from my foolishness and now I am a victim!
What a load of crap! Living here at ground zero of stupidity I cannot believe I am supposed to feel sorry for these fools. Just I am not going to waste my time feeling sorry for people drowning in credit card debt, I am not going to waste a moment of my time feeling bad for these fools who are in over their head because they bought into the housing bubble.
I read the article in the CC Times today about the tax relief and there were some choice quotes about the Bay Area being so special it is still imune from the troubles out in the Central Valley… We’re special. We have better credit than those out in the Valley. We make more money so we’re better and it won’t get as bad here as it will be there. Blah, blah….blah!
I once laughed at a co-worker who bought a spec house in Stockton at the peak of the market. I sang a song to the tune of Pop goes the Weasel.
Housing prices go up and up
Fools rush in to buy
Reality comes back to settle in.
Pop goes the bubble!
“‘I think you’ll start seeing light at the end of the tunnel next year,’ said economist Ryan Ratcliff, who specializes in regional forecasts for the closely followed UCLA Anderson Forecast.”
What he meant to say:
“I think you’ll be stuck in the tunnel with a train quickly approaching…”
Since Christopher Thornberg left UCLA the Anderson Forecast seems to have become just another meaningless shill for the REIC.
Here are a few recent quotes from Thornberg, you can’t see why they don’t want him onboard anymore:
http://www.beaconecon.com/people/press.html
LA Times 4/25/07
“Economist Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics said prices traditionally lag behind fundamental changes in the market. He said he was suspicious of reports that they were still going up in some areas.
“The numbers keep getting worse and worse,” he said. “Housing has no more ‘up’ in it. Prices have to start coming down or the market will stall.”
Years of rising prices have shrunk the pool of potential buyers so much that momentum is now impossible to sustain, Thornberg said. A 10% down payment to get into today’s median-priced Southern California home requires a buyer to spend $40,000 a year in housing costs from then on, he estimated.
“How many families can afford that? The answer is: not many,” Thornberg said.
Prices stayed artificially high during the recent boom, he said, because sub-prime lenders had given loans to marginally qualified buyers who could not otherwise afford houses. The sustained increases in home values strongly motivated investors to catch the wave.
“Consumers are in over their heads now” and are burdened with debt, Thornberg said.
There is also a chance of a recession by the end of the year that might reduce the number of jobs and pull down housing prices by adding more foreclosed homes to the market, he added.”
SFgate 4/25/07:
“Christopher Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics in San Francisco, put it bluntly.
“The median price is a bunch of hogwash,” he said. “You can have prices looking like they’re up when they’re down, because it is
incredibly subject to where slowdowns are occurring. If there is more slowdown in a (lower-priced market), then you could show the median price going up just because there is a shift in the type of product being sold.”
Here’s a quote from 8/26/05:
http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/thornberg.html
“This can only work as long as you have new people to enter the market and keep this pyramid growing. Functionally what it is, it’s a pyramid. And the pyramid works as long as you keep entering people at the bottom end.
Now when you start thinking about interest-only, variable-rate loans, what your talking about is a market that is so distended and needs these new buyers [to] enter the market so desperately that these mortgage companies will do anything to make these people qualify for a home. And that implies getting them involved in very risky loan situations that they should not be in, because that’s the only way they can get into the market.
What you’re seeing is a market that’s really coming close to its last leg. It’s running outta people entering the bottom of the pyramid, and therefore is resorting to crazier and crazier financial instruments to get these people in.”
Wow, he was dead on.
Yes, he was.
I would also add that contributors here were, too, and well before Thornburg’s statements above were made.
I prefer to use a 3 legged chair, in lieu of a pyramid…
The subprime leg has been knocked off and what’s left of the chair resembles a sinking ship, listing to port.
Check out the spin on this drought story from F el lay…
It’s all about the birds (although humans do get a mention)
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070428/NEWS0108/70425091/1083/NEWS0108
One small victory…..
A guy at work bought a new house, but was having trouble selling his old. He decided to take it off the market and rent it out until conditions improve. I talked him into dumping it, and if he can’t cancel the oder on the new.
Another guy owns 3, 2 are rented out. I think I have him SERIOUSLY looking at dumping while there is still time.
His last email to me was:
But the fed is gonna drop rates, and tons of people are moving here.
I’m gonna wait and see.
1) Fed is still talking about raising to control inflation and stop the dollar’s slide.
2) Those people coming here can’t afford to buy, especially with $0 down off the table. And, home builders are going to continue to crank out homes until the price comes down to the price of construction.
3) Hold out for what? For prices to stop dropping? Do you really think they are going to go back up to the peak that was acheivable only by selling people homes they can’t afford? Do you think rents are going to jump 30-40% to make buying a better deal than renting.
What is you upside potential? What is your downside risk is prices fall 20-30% back to minimum affordability levels? What is your downside risk if they slide 40-50% back to historic affordability levels.
Haven’t heard a counter argument back from him yet…. I think he is seriously waking up to reality. I hope so!
I’d much rather say “you’re welcome” than “told you so”.
Solid advice, more people should have friends like you…
I told 2 good friends in el lay to sell and quickly, around 6 months ago…
Nothing has transpired.
I just urged a co-worker today who is contemplating renting out to sell instead. He bought in 2003 - last chance to break even!
“and tons of people are moving here.”
For what tons of jobs ? Besides Realtors parroting this line is there any real evidence ?
“But the fed is gonna drop rates”
When the Fed starts dropping rates, home price continue to go down.
Why? Because the Fed drops rates when the economy is headed down or already into recession. People are worried about their jobs during this time and not looking to buy new houses.
I posted a graph last year that clearly showed this relationship, but unfortuneatly I didn’t save the link. With the speculative bubbles continuing in other asset classes putting pressure on inflation, I don’t think the Fed is going to cut any time soon. Without a decided trend down in the economy, their stuck.
“‘Does ’90s-level foreclosures mean ’90s-style depreciation?’ Ratcliff asked the crowd. ‘So far the answer is no. But it’s too early to tell.’”
Too early for you, perhaps. But I know which of that bet I’d take.
Yep…
Remember, “2007 is going to suck.”
And the investment banks are all predicting 2008 will be worse.
Got popcorn?
Neil
The bond market yield curve is predicting 2008 will be worse. Check out how the 6 mo yield compares to the 5 yr yield, not to mention full inversion out to 30 yrs –
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
GetStucco
The yeild curve is scary…
5.49% for a 15 year mortgage
5.60% for an ARM?!?
Whisky Tango Foxtrot…
What does the buyer say, “I’ll take the ARM for the Ass pounding?” (Hattip to Auger Inn, of course.)
As I read it… that yeild curve is predicting a 4 year recession! Gulp!
Oh well…
Got popcorn?
Neil
That’s how I read it too, Neil.
I think the bonds are in a speculative bubble of their own. What kind of a jackass would settle for a
“Ratcliff asked the crowd.”
Wtf was this? A tent revival for RE?
Elmer Ratcliff?
“Yi strongly suggested to appraisers what the answer ought to be. In an e-mail she sent to numerous appraisers, Yi said she needed ‘a value of $650,000 or more. Please let me know ASAP with max value.’ Five days later, an appraiser in Discovery Bay, produced the appraisal that led to Kim’s $642,000 mortgage, less than Yi wanted but enough to do a deal.”
This is way too common, and it’s going to create some serious a$$pounding.
I saw one post that mentioned $195k loss if that continues if you bought a house within the past 10 years you’re going to be buried in it for a long long time.
Yeah, if these people watched the news, they would realize that emails are forever (unless you have friends that “manage” the server, right Karl/Dick?). Imagine the feds raiding the email accounts of a few of the most successful appraisers….
I read the CNN Money article.
I’m wondering what the reporter was really thinking as he wrote:
Mia Yi
Intrigued
Money
Moqui
The first a** pounding is the hardest…
Imagine those poor folks who paid 600K fot their houses in Noss Landing?
In one foul swoop, 230K gets lopped off from their “equity”.
Man , talk about a bummer.
100% loan? They’re walking.
In one foul swoop
Nice one! I’m picturing some disgusting seabird swooping down and “fouling” the hair of the FBs in Moss Landing.
A bearish co-worker of mine was educating another co-worker/FB yesterday. The conversation went something like this:
A: “Didn’t you buy a house in Corona last year for 500k? You hear what’s happening out there lately?”
B: “Yes, I’ve made 100k on it already. I might sell it and pocket the money.”
A: “Really? Have you seen this website? Look (points to computer), the houses in your neighborhood are being auctioned off for less than you paid for yours. That’s ‘foreclosure central’ for the IE.”
B: (nauseated look) “Really…uh, are you sure? My agent said RE was going up.”
A: “Yeah, and what kind of payment do you have on the 400k you financed?”
B: “30 year fixed…I pay less than $2,000 a month.”
A: “Uh, I hate to tell you but at that rate you are paying iterest only, if that.”
B: (wide eyed and nauseated) “Really?…uuhhhhh.” (Slinks away)
Amazing, but many people are completely unaware of the RE bubble or what is happening at all, I mean at all.
Dude, are you sure that was interest only? Sounds like an option arm.
30 yr fixed at 2000/mo? heeheeheehee!
What’s crazy is that when the FB says “my agent” I bet he’s talking about the agent who sold him the house.
Last week I was sitting at the airport talking with a friend who is renting out his San Diego house that he bought in 2002. I told him that he should consider selling it because he is losing equity, and he told me that he had recently “checked” and that all is well. He probably did check with his RE agent. Oh well. He makes a good income and is young.
I was at a class last night and the gal in front of me was talking excitedly about just closing on a condo in downtown SD. Normally I would have said “Congratulations” but this time all I could think of was, “Oh, I am so sorry.”
I dropped my pencil instead and let the gal to her left do the congratulating. The new bagholder was so thrilled that she lived in downtown SD - “San Francisco style urban!” She’s got a point, I have seen just as many homeless in downtown SD as downtown SF.
this reminds me of the ad (Ameritrade?) where the monkey was pulling a horse and shed a tear as it picked up the pets.com puppet (socks) and the dot.com stadium was being demolished.
I feel for the gal… She just got screwed… hopefully they decline her mortgage application.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Fun to be “A”, I suppose. But I’d have a concern about “B” remembering “A” later when he or she goes postal over looming foreclosure and troubles at work. Color me paranoid…
test
MacArthur Park is crying in the rain…
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=90c_1178121179&p=1
When L.A.P.D. tells you to move your arse, it’s in your best interest to do so…
If it wasn’t in color, it sure looked like 1967 Detroit or Newark to me…
Say, what’s a house worth in those locales nowadays?
Glad to be oh so far away from the city of angles.
MacArthur Park and the general area would mostly comprise of large scale apartment complexes. Illegal alien haven they are killing the landlords down there between the illegals and the D.A. a landlord doesn’t stand a chance. The closet area as far as housing is KoreaTown and Hancock Park. Koreatown which is the closet probably starts around 750k and Hancock Park although a nice area with nice homes you’d be lucky to find a 1000 sgft on a 6500 sgft lot for less than a million unless it was a severe fixer last I looked. The bigger nicer homes with the bigger lots in that area probably go for 3-10 million both areas are less than 15 minutes from there.
Koreatown which is the closet probably starts around 750k
It wasn’t that long ago (less than 10 years) that many, perhaps even MOST houses in Koreatown cost less than $200k. I suspect we’ll get there again by the time the bust is over.
me too - I may be in a ‘boring’ area compared to l.a., but would not go back for 1 million $$$
If it was the Border Patrol instead of LAPD, those people would have moved right-quick!
I think those were a bunch of FB’s trying to get some of their money back from their lenders. Or maybe illegals? Oh, wait aren’t many of them one in the same in LA nowadays?
Should have put a giant net around the place and taken care of all of them….bunch of pansies.
Testify, solvingadream. A dragnet full of ‘em, right over the border. However, they put away a couple of border patrol fellows for shooting a Mexican drug dealer in the arse, so believe me, the LAPD probably wasn’t as tough as they would have liked.
“MacArthur Park is crying in the rain…”
Looks like some Anarchists and a few other rowdies were pelting the Police with Bottles and rocks, injuring some officers. Got the full story on AM radio this afternoon, with interviews from both sides. Also got information that a PO was dragged/knocked off his motorcycle by the rowdies.
Apparantly some camera Reporters got in the way of the Riot police doing a riot clearance of missle-throwing rowdies. In this situation the Police would be extremely agitated and not be in a mood to carefully pick their way around intrusive Reporters if those reporters were in the line of fire and did not immediate clear out as any common-sense person would do so if they saw a line of riot police charging with batons at the ready.
I have been around the MacArthur Park area and Alvarado St. Very low-income slummy apts and trashed-out streets all around that general area and in nearby pico-union and Rampart. Not an especially pleasant assignment for LAPD to go into that slummy third-world slimepit and deal with missle-throwing hoodlums. A few Officers may have got out of hand but it was a no-win situation, especially with the pro-illegal immigrant Telemundo Cameras making the most of the situation to put the LAPD in a bad light.
Exactly and spot on
JUST POSTED NYC: NOTICE THE BAD SPELLING!!!!!!!!!!!
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Still stuck on page 666 of “Atlas Shrugged”
What has you stuck aladinsane? The baby thing? The Starnes hiers?
Irony Alert…
Methinks there were oh so many more people ready for the non-event that was Y2K, verses preparation for the whole nine yards about to bear down on us, soon.
Y2K was a non-event simply because we were prepared. I’m a programmer, I’ve seen what was done, and without it we would have been in the toilet. Speak to what you know of please.
Conversely, the housing bust will be a major event because we have been prepared to expect nothing. Only those who can conduct independent research and understand the implications of their findings are currently prepared.
I was thinking more along the lines of preparation in the minds of the great unwashed ones.
They bought all sorts of junk they didn’t need (backpacking food, generators, et al) and were “burned” by their previous experience, thus, they’ll do nothing, this go round.
In a previous thread, someone mentioned HELOC Spirit. That made me think of this little ditty about bubble cheerleaders:
Video
Pop up some corn
N’ bring your friends
Its fun to lose
And to pretend
He’s a landlord
So self assured
I know I know
A dirty word
HELOC (x 16)
With sub-prime out it’s less dangerous
Here we are now
Entertain us
I feel stupid and contagious
Here we are now
Entertain us
Calling out for
Gordon Gekko
Go with gusto
Liarrhea
Yea
I’m worse at what I do best
And for this gift I feel blessed
Our little group has always been
And always will until the end
HELOC (x 16)
With Alt-A out it’s less dangerous
Here we are now
Entertain us
I feel stupid and contagious
Here we are now
Entertain us
Calling out for
Gordon Gekko
Go with gusto
Liarrhea
Yea
And I forget
Just what it takes
And yet I guess it makes me smile
I found it hard
Its hard to find
Oh well, whatever, nevermind
HELOC (x 16)
With sub-prime out it’s less dangerous
Here we are now
Entertain us
I feel stupid and contagious
Here we are now
Entertain us
Calling out for
Gordon Gekko
Go with gusto
Liarrhea
Liarrhea
Liarrhea
Liarrhea
…
we can always count on you for a great little ditty!!!
The next song is “Rape Me”
HELOC Spirit….OMFG BWAHAHAHA!!!
Absolutely brilliant man…I love this freaking blog.
Ok now the Housing Bubble news has really hit home. I actually know Paul Chasteen as I used to work with his wife a few years back.
Was she hot?
“‘I think you’ll start seeing light at the end of the tunnel next year,’ said economist Ryan Ratcliff, who specializes in regional forecasts for the closely followed UCLA Anderson Forecast.”
Does he mean that San Diego prices will fall back to affordable levels? I think there is some hope for this happening, given the growing inventory glut, though I predict that it will take longer than through the end of 2008 — more like through 2012 — to accomplish the necessary correction.
Slightly OT — I was just looking at the top-priced homes on ziprealty.com’s SD inventory, and I believe there is a list price density problem at all rungs of the quality ladder below the very top echelon.
Let me explain:
Number of homes listed between $15m and $40m = 13; average list price separation is (40 - 15) / 13 = $1.923m (think of this as the average spread between consecutive list prices of homes on this range; higher separation means fewer homes to choose from on the range).
But on the range from $4.5m-$15m, there are 178 homes listed, with an average separation distance of (15-4.5)/178 = $0.059m = $59,000 between consecutively priced homes. The difference in list price density between the top tier and the second tier tapers off by a divisor of $1923K/$59K = 32. Are there enough millionaires shopping on the $4.5m to $15m price range to absorb this glut of densely-priced inventory (plus all the newly built homes just under this price range in Santaluz)? And doesn’t having many homes priced so close together tend to create deflationary pressure?
The story gets far worse on the $1m-$5m price range (2234 homes currently listed). Average list price separation on this range is
($5m - $1m)/2234 = $1790. That is a pretty dense price distribution.
As one might guess, the picture is worst at the bottom of the ladder. Here is the average list price separation for the range $1m and under (including condos):
9279 SFRs priced between $180K and $1m (after throwing out two dogs under $180K) gives ($1,000,000-$180,000)/9279 = $88.37 as the average price separation on the bottom rung of the SFR quality distribution.
(A lightbulb goes on.) Now I finally get why realtors say it is a buyers’ market!
Clarification: I was first going to include condos on the $1m and under range, but then limited the calculation to SFRs, only. Including condos, there are 15,355 homes on the range below $1m (starting at $99K), and the average price separation on that range is
($1,000,000 - $99,000)/15,355 = $58.67,
if condos are included. All of these homes will sell, in the long run (but in the long run, all sellers must die).
living space and is less than two years old. If you had bought it 15 months ago you would have paid in excess of $600,000.”
“Now that home bought with 100 percent financing is in foreclosure. The lender is willing to take $379,900.”
And 1998-2000, this house would be under $200K. What a bunch of asshats. Still priced way to high for the land of LARD. How far has “The Toilet (Los Banos)” now fallen?
living space and is less than two years old. If you had bought it 15 months ago you would have paid in excess of $600,000.”
“Now that home bought with 100 percent financing is in foreclosure. The lender is willing to take $379,900.”
And 1998-2000, this house would be under $200K. What a bunch of asshats. Still priced way to high for the land of LARD. How far has “The Toilet (Los Banos)” now fallen?
Where will the low (realistic/affordable) house prices come from? Not being an expert, I would bet they will come from the LENDERS. The reason house prices have not fallen to the levels we all feel they belong (ie in singk with wages) is because the home owners who are screwed for the most part can’t lower the prices themselves. How could they? For example, screwed borrowers bought houses in Fontucky CA at, say 600K. As their rates reset and they finally realize that they are screwed, they can’t do nothing but wait for the bank to come and kick-them (in the behind) out of the house. The bank eventually takes the house and sends it to auction. Initially, the banks will be able to deal with repossesing a certain number of homes and will play hard ball at the auction, but once houses start popping by the thousands, they won’t be able to deal with the flood. They (the lenders) soon will have had their fill of foreclosed homes. Once they do, they will sell to anybody at whatever prices and/or they will go bankrupt. So the reason prices are not comming down as fast as I would like it is because current house owners who bought in the past couple of years CAN’T lower them even if they wanted to.
Costa Mesa, CA. Well, we’ve busted through the record inventory level (was ~550) from October last year. Now we’re at 564 and climbing (it increased by 10-15 just today!).
Desperation becoming more apparent around the ‘hood as more and more new for-sale signs pop up while the old ones linger. Neighbor with a new Hummer (from around 6 months ago) no longer parks the Hummer in the driveway and now a for-sale sign has been put up in his yard. (Other cars still are parked there.)
A lot of FSBOs, a lot more than last year for sure.
The Manteca Bulletin reports from California. “It is a tidy, sharp looking home. The Mossdale neighborhood west of Interstate 5 is clean and desirable….”
If a prospective buyer goes out there and takes a look to the west, they’ll see the levee that separates the neighborhood from the San Joaquin River.
One day, Lathrop is going to be under water. It is a friggin’ flood plain. At least where they built all of these new ugly homes. Ditto for Manteca, Stockton, French Camp, and whatever other town out there. I remember when we used to make fun of Tracy as the “Land of Many Smells” due to the high number of food processing plants. I think they moved to make room for more Altamont supercommuters and their POS $600K+ houses. For those that haven’t driven over the Altamonte Pass, it is a horribly congested and ugly drive. LA ’s traffic can’t be any worse, and I have driven in both. Glad to be out of it.
Interesting articles about telecommuting in SF due to the freeway fire and subsequent collapse of a major artery.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/zd/20070501/tc_zd/206469
If you had bought it 15 months ago you would have paid in excess of $600,000.”
“Now that home bought with 100 percent financing is in foreclosure. The lender is willing to take $379,900.”
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nice to see these corrupt lenders lose their @$$$@$!!!!
What a bunch of cry baby bitter homeowners.
Prices start tanking then whining about property taxes.
Now who is looking smart.
I got a bid 50% lower. Also have a real down payment!
Lol!
STEVEH:
I was wondering if you could email me about your experience in moving to New Zealand and getting into the profession you are in now…wine making. This is something that I have been seriously considering doing with my wife and would appreciate any help you can offer.
Please email me directly at climatologist@sbcglobal.net.
Much appreciated.