The Housing Bubble

The Guardian reports on Florida. “Florida’s over-saturated luxury housing market has caused Taylor Woodrow to abandon plans to build a massive $180 development. The builder paid more than $31.5m for the land at Clearwater Beach in 2005 and planned to build a 15-storey tower. A second tower was to house a condo hotel with 78 suites.”

“‘The spring selling season for our high-rise tower division in Florida has been very poor,’ CEO Ian Smith said. ‘Market weakness persists in California and particularly Florida and conditions have worsened in certain submarkets within those states.’”

“Taylor Woodrow wrote down its US assets in February, also at a cost of £40m, but the continued weakness of the overall north American market had led to speculation that values have fallen even further.”

“‘We missed the curve with Clearwater Beach,’ said spokesman Tim Knight, explaining that the Florida condo market staggered to a halt before pre-sales could be booked. The tourist town has lost thousands of hotel rooms over the last few years as developers razed buildings to cash in on the condo boom.”

“Real estate experts say there are already 800 unsold condos available in the Clearwater area and tens of thousands across the state. In the Miami area alone, 20,000 new units are scheduled to come to market by the end of next year.”

“In Florida, the company said although the locations of its sites were ‘excellent,’ the high-rise market had weakened ’significantly’ and it wanted to save costs by suspending sales efforts for the business until market conditions improved.”

“‘In the particular areas we’re looking at where we’ve been taking provisions we’re looking at price declines of around 100,000 to 150,000 stg,’ Smith told analysts. ‘I should say these are not starter homes, but reasonably high-priced homes, 700,000 to 800,000 usd homes.’”

The St Petersburg Times. “Could Clearwater Beach become a hotel haven again? Many of the old mom-and-pop motels that once dotted the shoreline have been bought up and torn down to make way for glitzy condos.”

“But with the slow housing market and many condominium projects at a standstill, Pinellas County leaders are talking about creating incentives that encourage developers to build hotels instead.”

“‘I don’t think that our citizens and our tourists really want us to look like Miami Beach,’ Commissioner Karen Seel said.”

“Clearwater Beach has seen big condo developments gobble up thousands of hotel rooms in the past half-decade. ‘I think right now the condominium market is stagnant, to say the least,’ Mayor Frank Hibbard said.”

“The architectural plans for Trump Tower Tampa may not be set in marble and glass. The Miami development company negotiating to take over the much-delayed Tampa high-rise suggests the project be revamped to reflect a changing real estate market.”

“‘I think there will be a project built there,’ said Eric Fordin, a project manager at the Related Group. ‘But I’m not sure what form it will take.’”

“That means what’s been marketed as the tallest condo skyscraper on Florida’s West Coast, with 52 stories and 190 condominiums, could be downsized.”

“Since its sales launch in February 2005, Trump Tower has trumpeted itself as not just the highest skyscraper, but also most luxurious residential address.”

“The timing turned out to be poor for developer SimDag LLC. Banks have shied from financing the $300-million building, wary of a housing downturn that has tossed thousands of unsold condos onto the Tampa area market.”

“One possibility is that SimDag will cut ties with the project entirely. ‘Part of SimDag would love to be involved in the deal,’ Fordin said. ‘Part of them would like to go home.’”

The News Press. “The number of permits pulled for single-family homes in April was down throughout Lee County. That’s about 17 percent fewer than in March and 69 percent less than the same month a year ago.”

“In Cape Coral, city officials reported 115 permits were pulled, down 74 percent from April 2006’s 439. Fort Myers builders pulled 40 single-family permits, down 70 percent from March’s 135 and down 38 percent from April 2006’s 65.”

“‘Hopefully now that we have been skating along the bottom like this, basically going back to the numbers of four years ago, now it will pick up,’ said Michael Reitmann, executive VP of the Lee County Building Industry Association.”

“Metrostudy’s Southwest Florida market research director Brad Hunter noted the first quarter of 2007 saw a marked decrease in new home construction: 887 single-family home starts compared with 1,558 in the first quarter of 2006.”

“Also, he said, ‘The drop in units under construction suggests that a significant decline in finished vacant inventory will soon follow, providing substantial relief from the downward pressure on prices.’”

“As the residential permits stay at low levels, said Mary Gibbs, head of the county Department of Community Development, ‘I’m looking at eliminating 19 positions in the budget this year’ because not as many building inspectors and plan reviewers are needed.”

The Orlando Sentinel. “Mortgage woes, higher gas prices and a ‘perfect storm’ of other financial troubles have caused personal bankruptcies to spike in Central Florida so far this year, according to the latest court records.”

“Nearly 1,300 personal-bankruptcy cases were filed in Orlando during the first three months of 2007, nearly twice as many as during the first quarter of last year.”

“Personal-bankruptcy cases for the entire Middle District, which extends from Fort Myers to Jacksonville, jumped nearly 80 percent in the first quarter, to 5,308 filings, compared with the same period a year earlier.”

“A Lake County couple , who spoke only on the condition of anonymity, tried to sell their home late last year to pay off their bills, but the house wouldn’t sell in the slumping market. Finally, in March, they filed Chapter 7 bankruptcy in Orlando federal court.”

“‘This didn’t just happen overnight,’ the husband said. ‘We’ve been fighting these bills for three years. But everything’s just been snowballing against us.’”

“During the five-year housing boom, many of those headed for financial trouble were able to refinance their mortgage, experts noted, to extract equity that could be used to pay off debt. But now, with home prices flat or in decline, that option is often not available.”

“‘Prices have tapered off, and there’s no more equity to refinance with,’ said Doug Neway, an Orlando consumer-bankruptcy lawyer. ‘There are many who want to save their homes, but some people are in such bad shape, they really just need to walk away from them.’”

“This year’s first-quarter personal bankruptcy filing’s are up 97 percent from a year ago. Many people are now taking huge hits from ill-advised purchases made during the housing boom, especially those who financed their homes with adjustable-rate loans, which are now ratcheting higher to unaffordable levels in some cases.”

“‘There has been a perceptible increase in filings by people who are trying to prevent foreclosure,’ said Jonathan Alper, a bankruptcy lawyer in Lake Mary. ‘I don’t think we’ve begun to see the full effect of that.’”

The Gainesville from Georgia. “Jody and Shelley Ray’s dream house went on the market in October and six months later, a ‘for sale’ sign still is posted in the front yard of the four-bedroom, three-bath house.”

“‘It’s frustrating,’ said Jody, who now commutes from Gainesville to Marietta. Real estate agents have regularly brought prospective buyers, but have yet to find a new owner.”

“The Rays are not alone. The once robust resale market in Gainesville is not as strong as it was a couple of years ago.”

“Ed Phillips, executive VP of the Homebuilders Association of Georgia said that throughout the state there are pockets of good and bad news. ‘It’s all over the map,’ Phillips said. ‘There are places where it’s dead.’”

“He said that some areas have too much housing inventory on the market, adding that builders statewide are taking a conservative approach in building speculative houses.”

“‘I think the banks are helping lead that effort; nobody wants to get caught,’ Phillips said. ‘Our business is down, but in Georgia I don’t think you’re going to see problems like huge devaluations that we have seen elsewhere.’”

“‘I have seen people having to come down on their prices, taking less than they would two or three years ago, because there is so much competition out there,’ said Susan Barkley, a mortgage specialist in Gainesville.”

“The Rays have done just that, dropping the listing price of their home. They are optimistic that they will find a buyer during the busy home-buying and selling season that takes place toward the end of May.”