May 5, 2007

A Further Standstill In Florida

The Herald Tribune reports from Florida. “Craig Meadow is in financial hot water after contracting with Punta Gorda-based Ideal Homes Inc. for a $305,000 dream home that the builder never completed. He said he has been devastated financially. Meadow is among a growing group of consumers contending with struggling or defunct builders in Southwest Florida.”

“The fallout from their problems, mostly the result of the hyperactive housing market of 2004-05, is also filling a lot of the time of planning and building officials from governments around the region.”

“The past year has been unprecedented: Sarasota-based Jade Homes closed, leaving 75 unfinished houses; Avalon Homes, also of Sarasota, left 50 houses unfinished; and St. Petersburg-based Construction Compliance Inc. left more than 400 houses unfinished.”

“North Port building official Tom Lifsey can no longer keep a count of the panic-stricken homeowners, the liens, the abandoned houses and the lawsuits, he said.”

“‘I don’t know how many times I’ve said it: ‘I would love to help you, but this is a civil matter,’ Lifsey said. ‘Unfortunately, in Florida, there’s usually nothing we can do.’”

The Palm Beach Post. “The pink walls of the 1960s-era Rutledge Inn fell to bulldozers last year. Owned by three generations of the Crouse family, the hotel was razed to make room for Mirasol Beach of Singer Island.”

“Mirasol Beach was to be an 18-story condo resplendent with spa, fitness center, library, theater, lounge and billiards. No more. Last week developer Taylor Woodrow Plc pulled the plug on the project.”

“‘I wish we had never sold it,’ Doris Crouse said after being told of the developer’s decision. ‘It’s just dirt now,’ she said.”

“Mirasol Beach isn’t the first project to level a piece of Old Florida only to be canceled. Two years after the beloved Crab Pot restaurant was shuttered, plans for the 17-story condominium that was to be built in its place went belly up. The site, on Riviera Beach’s mainland, is up for sale.”

“Just 10 months after bulldozers rolled over the Pot, the overheated condo market started cooling. Barbara Fox, a real estate agent and longtime Crab Pot patron, said, ‘I understand change.’ Her office at Marina Grande overlooks the Pot site. ‘But really, replace it with something. Don’t leave it bare.’”

The News Press. “The Bonita Bay Group’s decision to cut 30 positions is the latest in a series of terminations and layoffs by developers and builders sparked by the sluggish real estate market. ‘The downturn in the real estate market is putting pressure on the company,’ spokeswoman Mary Briggs said.”

“Briggs said the Bonita Bay Group does not plan to cut any more jobs. ‘We have every confidence that things are going to turn around,’ she said. ‘It’s just taking longer to do so than we had hoped.’”

The Sun Sentinel. “Real estate agents across South Florida kept pointing to this week, hoping state legislators would revive the housing market with a bold plan to fix the property tax crunch.”

“But now that legislators have pushed off the tax talk until June, dispirited agents say they have little hope of salvaging the spring selling season as they face at least another month of soft sales.”

“‘It’s just terrible what they did,’ said Bob Melzer, an agent in Boca Raton.”

“Many residents say they’re trapped, unable to buy larger or smaller homes because their tax bills would double or triple.”

“‘The market is going to come back once we provide some equality and sanity to our tax structure,’ said Bob Goldstein, chairman of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.”

“And there’s no guarantee that the changes legislators settle on will help the real estate market in a meaningful way. One proposal to roll back taxes to 2005 levels was criticized for not giving homeowners enough savings.”

“Year-over-year sales dropped 22 percent in Palm Beach County in March and 25 percent in Broward. Palm Beach County’s median price of $375,100 was down $18,600 from a year ago.”

“Agents had hoped a resolution to the tax problem this month would at least give buyers the confidence to make offers before hurricane season begins June 1.”

“‘This delay is going to mean a further standstill,’ said Beverly Rothstein, an agent in northern Broward. ‘Buyers are stuck and sellers are extremely unhappy.’”




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69 Comments »

Comment by dimedropped
2007-05-05 06:19:33

There is no standstill……we are going in reverse….and quickly!

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-05 06:23:28

Punta Gorda = Fat Point

Sounds like a somewhat less than “ideal” shearing of the sheeple…

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-05 06:27:23

The Aligators are circling for the kill, in F el lay…

 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-05-05 06:27:53

I posted this on another blog, but given the subject, it seems to apply here as well:

This is exactly what I expected on this issue. Insurance? They were going to be all over that one; for one very simple reason, they were taking money from companies (ie, someone else!).

In the tax issue, they are the direct beneficiaries of the tax revenue; cutting taxes would be akin to lowering your own salary.

The thing that is so maddening is that insurance is a business figured by formulas and probabilities. It’s not really rocket science; you just figure out the likelyhood of a hit, amount of damage, and then base the rates off those numbers (it is actually rather complicated, but that’s the basic idea). For govt to come in and say that the insurance models are wrong? Really, they said the models were right, the rates were right, and instead of fighting them over the risk model, they just hooked us all for the reinsurance.

Anyway, I digress. The issue with taxes is SO easy to fix, there are no middle men/company negotiations/etc! It’s like buying something from the owner of a store, the owner has all the ability and room in the world to negotiatie, becuase it’s HIS store.

So, what’s going to happen? I really think we are going to see them shuffle this issue from desk to desk until home prices have totally cratered, and the tax issue has resolved itself (no more high prices, no more outrage over SOH).

SOH is a license to steal from the non-voting public. They will do anything to keep it in place; they almost depend on the 2 tier tax system to allow them to raise taxes when “necessary” on the non-voting public. They will do anything to keep this type of system in place, no matter what the cost to the public.

The easiest thing of all was to just leave SOH alone, and drop assesed rates to 1% for everyone else (no more SOH going forward though). They won’t even do that; the greed, and the dependency on taxing the life out of non-voters has become an integral part of FL politics.

:(

Comment by Gatorfan
2007-05-05 07:25:38

While I agree tax issues in Florida are a huge problem and unbelievably unfair, I contend that its impact on the market is relatively minor.

The RE Agent’s comment in the article is fairly typical: “But now that legislators have pushed off the tax talk until June, dispirited agents say they have little hope of salvaging the spring selling season as they face at least another month of soft sales.”

They and their fellow RE cheerleaders view the tax issue and the high insurance rates as the only problems causing the RE woes here in Florida. However, most people like me, who have the means to buy a home right now but chose to rent, wouldn’t change their strategy even if property tax were eliminated completely and Citizens provided insurance free-of-charge.

I rent a townhouse for $1100 per month. Similar units to the one I am renting are on the market for $340,000. The HOA fees are $159 per month. In other words, my monthly mortgage payments plus HOA would exceed $2000 per month BEFORE taxes and insurance.

Why in the world would I buy a depreciating asset and pay at least $900 extra a month?

When the prices return to 2001 prices, most the problems will be solved. SOH will become irrelevant to most owners because their 3% increase have generally brought their SOH values beyond the 2001 price of their homes. As a result, most neighbors will end up paying at or near the same property tax rates and the discrepancies between disappear.

Comment by sm_landlord
2007-05-05 07:48:27

The RE agents do not want to acknowledge the elephant in the room.

I thik that they know, even if subliminally, what will happen prices go into a sustained fall. What I have seen in past housing slumps is that sales basically dry up. Most homeowners will not sell into a declining market, and few buyers will buy in same. That means no commissions for a couple of years, which means the end of the world as seen by RE agents.

Since they do not want to admit this, perhaps even to themselves, they will point and whine at anything they see that might offer an alternative explanation of the situation.

 
Comment by Incredulous
2007-05-05 08:02:50

“But now that legislators have pushed off the tax talk until June, dispirited agents say they have little hope of salvaging the spring selling season as they face at least another month of soft sales.”

Another month, is that it? Then the hard sales kick in? I heard a real estate something-or-other yesterday telling someone else that real estate sales were terrible, then in mid-sentence changing his story and claiming that real estate sales had really picked up here (Tampa) over the past few weeks, and that one could get real bargains now. What rot. A 10% discount on a 300% overpriced dump is not a bargain. And as we’ve all seen with the subprime mess, most buyers have no idea what their property taxes are going to be, and don’t bother finding out. So the idea that nobody’s buying because of their fear of property taxes is as stupid as the idea that nobody’s buying because of their fear of insurance premiums. The reason nobody is buying is that the properties for sale aren’t worth a fraction of the asking prices, prices are falling, and rigged loans for crooks (a.k.a. “investors”) are becoming harder to get.

Prices need to drop to 1997 levels to be remotely close to rational, and all this talk about 2004-2005 as the boom years is historical revisionism. The housing bubble started in Florida in the late 1990s and really took off in 2002.

Comment by Cinch
2007-05-05 10:48:25

Tragically, this is not just in Florida. I’m seeing the same in Montana and Idaho.

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Comment by Arwen U.
2007-05-05 06:30:59

Interesting:

“”This could never happen in New York,” Meadow said. “To build a home there, a contractor has to have a completion bond and, if he fails to deliver, the bonding company steps in to complete the house.”

If the contractor failed to deliver through willful negligence, “he’d be in jail by now,” Meadow said. “

Comment by Key Lime Toast
2007-05-05 06:53:24

Welcome to Florida.

Legislators here are owned outright by developers and the laws are written and not enforced accordingly. The scams have been going on for a century here in Florida yet nothing changes.

Step right up suckers… wanna buy/build a “DREAM” home here…. in “PARADISE”?

Editorial suggestion to the Herald/Tribune:
Could we stop the realtor talk please? Such as “dream home” and “living in paradise”. It’s sentimental hype and sales talk BS.

Considering the fraudulent overpriced mess we’re in and all the pain and disillusionment still ahead as the crash continues, it might be called for to start thinking and talking about housing in a more sober and realistic fashion.

Comment by sm_landlord
2007-05-05 07:51:12

Yeah, I think of Florida weather as the ultimate bait and switch. If you can the suckers to buy in during the winter when the weather is nice, you can be long gone when summer kicks in. Paradise my 4ss.

Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-05 08:00:39

F el lay is strictly for lazy east coasters that don’t know of better plan b’s…

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Comment by Eastofwest
2007-05-05 10:28:47

” F el lay is strictly for lazy east coasters that don’t know of better plan b’s… ”

Well, it used to be..You could retire,and buy a little stucco box for under 100k. Now prices have doubled, taxes have tripled,and Ins. has quadrupled. That ,and most metros’ are a parking lot at most commute times spells no motivation to leave your home of 40 years to come down here.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by luvs_footie
2007-05-05 06:33:41

“Agents had hoped a resolution to the tax problem this month would at least give buyers the confidence to make offers before hurricane season begins June 1.”

What a great idea……..buy before the storms……….Moron!!!!!

 
Comment by lars39
2007-05-05 06:38:09

Do you suppose we are approaching a time when buyers look for a place to live and not feel entitled to retire on the proceeds of their appreciated house in a few years? How far will prices need to fall for this to happen? Or will a drop to reasonable prices just bring the flippers back?

Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-05 06:41:40

They call him, Flipper, Flipper…

The only flipper anybody’s going to want to remember.

 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-05-05 06:49:18

The flippers will not be back without pyscho loans. That’s the part of the equation that absolutley must be in place to allow the housing bubble to get “back on track”. If you take this away, and require people to put some real “skin” in the game, the whole house of cards folds.

Housing was a “heads I win, tails you lose” for many people (or at least, that what they think; we will have to see if the lenders are aggressive in pursing their lost money. It was the combination of exotic loan products that let this whole thing get out of whack.

A no doc, negative am, no downpayment loan is an insane product. The fact that it even existed is a testament to how out of control the lending/MBS industry was during the bubble. This type of exotic loan should never exist for anyone.

It was the combination of exotic products into one loan product that truly got this thing out of control. Without these products; no more housing bubble.

Comment by Jerry F
2007-05-05 11:16:51

No doc, no down, toxie loans…… who in the hell do you think benefited from this? If the answer isn’t clear by now nothing else matters. Common sense is “not” taught in schools.

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2007-05-05 07:17:43

Do you suppose we are approaching a time when buyers look for a place to live and not feel entitled to retire on the proceeds of their appreciated house in a few years

It’s a no-brainer…80 million boomers pushin’ on, with 50 million Gen Y, X’ers to replace them.

That’s a 30 million gap.

Even if it’s filled with illegals, you’re still now gonna have the same wealth levels.

All just an issue of demographics…which somehow always gets ignored in discounted cash flow models.

Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-05-05 07:59:04

Those 30 million illiterate illegal aliens on welfare will not save Social Security and pay off our $9 trillion national debt. For every one child of an illegal immigrant who goes to college, you have five who end up on welfare, in prison or in gangs. Just take a look at West Dallas and East LA and you will see what mass illegal immigration does to an area.

I have friends from other countries who ask me why we allow so many uneducated people into this country while making educated people wait up to ten years for a greencard. We are no longer an agricultural and industrial society. We don’t need huddled masses of uneducated immigrant laborers anymore. We need more doctors, scientists and engineers.

Another thing, Americans need to get off their fat lazy arses and mow their own lawns, clean their own homes, and raise their own children.

Comment by Incredulous
2007-05-05 08:20:33

Nobody mentions that 1/3 of all the inmates in U.S. prisons for violent crimes are illegals–costing billions a year to house and guard, or that something like a dozen U.S. citizens are killed every day (more than the average death rate for our soldiers in Iraq) in crimes and car accidents caused by illegal immigrants in this country.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business interests want illegals here for cheap slave labor. The cost of insurance and other benefits the cheapskate businessmen don’t pay far is transferred to the taxpaying public (which provides welfare, free-education, etc. to illegals), again demonstrating the concept of socializing costs, while privatizing profits.

Now the real estate industry wants illegals to buy houses at many times their value using rigged, interest-only loans and pooled resources. The facts that having four families living in one single-family McMansion is probably illegal in itself (regardless of the nationalities of those involved) and that such arrangements destroy neighborhoods don’t matter to these hucksters, who couldn’t care less about the quality of life in general on this planet, as long as they can live it up in tacky pseudo baronial splendor.

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Comment by hd74man
2007-05-05 08:39:27

Another thing, Americans need to get off their fat lazy arses and mow their own lawns, clean their own homes, and raise their own children.

Amen to that brother!!!

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Comment by slowburn
2007-05-05 08:41:03

Dead on Jerry. Our large urban cities are becoming more third-world with each passing day. Listening to the MSM/Politicians say they are here to do jobs we refuse to do makes me sick.

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Comment by slowburn
2007-05-05 08:58:25

By the way, Happy Cinco de Mayo! Nothing like a bunch of drunk illegals killing innocent citizens on our nations highways. Living in Texas, I won’t be anywhere near the roads tonight.

 
 
Comment by Eudemon
2007-05-05 09:40:04

“Another thing, Americans need to get off their fat lazy arses and mow their own lawns, clean their own homes, and raise their own children.”

God forbid. Why should they do that? It’s much easier to just pay off an illegal rather that doing such menial labor themselves.

One of my theories is that over time, “problem” illegals wind up in places they feel most at home. A case of like attracting like. Were places like East L.A., west Dallas and western Pennsylvania garden spots before illegals starting appearing in mass 20+ years ago?

Somehow, I doubt it.

While there are many, many illegals living throughout the Midwest, there doesn’t seem to be pronounced behavioral problems driven by illegals living here on a per capital basis. (The “Midwest” - Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota). I don’t see them raising hell anymore often than anyone else does.

You know what I really think? I think there’s a fair number of native-born Americans who are pissed off that illegals are tapping into the social welfare problems and government money that they themselves think they are entitled to. The entitlement mindset knows no bounds in this country. Certainly not when it comes to “legal” and “illegal”.

See a pattern here? I do. “I refuse to degrade myself by doing menial labor, yet it’s dead wrong for illegals to tap into MY social welfare benefits.” Kinda like ‘Let ‘em eat cake’.

Too bad we can’t ship these “patriotic” native-born Americans to Mexico along with the illegals. Birds of a feather ought to LIVE together.

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Comment by Eudemon
2007-05-05 10:03:02

Make that “social welfare PROGRAMS”

Also, I might add that it’s a shame we can’t ship 150-175 million native-born Americans to Mexico. You know, all those who already are - and who plan to — sponge off their fellow countrymen via Social Security, Medicare, etc.

As I see it, the only significant difference between an illegal societal leech and a domestic native-born societal leech is a U.S. birth certificate. There’s certainly no difference in the lack of willingness to shirk personal responsibility in favor of hedonism.

 
Comment by Incredulous
2007-05-05 10:30:52

Eudemon said . . .

“See a pattern here? I do. ‘I refuse to degrade myself by doing menial labor, yet it’s dead wrong for illegals to tap into MY social welfare benefits.’ Kinda like ‘Let ‘em eat cake’. ”

Say what? If illegals, who supposedly number 12 million, but probably actually number closer to 25 million, make up 1/3 of our prison population (for major crimes, not for being here illegally), then you’re head is in the sand. The crime rate and destruction related to illegals is horrendous, as is their depression of wages, the cost of providing them medical care and schooling, and other benefits, and the mess they make of formerly nice areas (and yes, they have destroyed beautiful neighborhoods). And don’t even get me started on the destruction of the public schools involved, where illiteracy and street slang have now been democratized.

I feel very sorry for Mexican illegals whose own country is too corrupt to provide for them, but if a bunch of illiterate, gun-toting rednecks moved into my neighborhood, I’d complain about them even more.

The people you claim want cheap illegal labor, but don’t want government handouts for illegals exist where? Here, everyone I know who employs illegals thinks the government should give them everything, because they, the employers, don’t want to spend anything.

If employers were held financially responsible for damages caused by the illegals they hire, including the cost of prosecuting them for crimes, and then incarcerating them, and the cost of sending them comfortably home (since they lure them here in the first place), the problem would disappear overnight.

Open borders have never worked in the whole of human history, and every attempt has been a disaster. Even the most benign Buddhist countries know this concept is ridiculous: as ridiculous as letting strangers come into your home to do as they please. Trying packing up and moving to Mexico without permission and see how far you get. The Mexican police beat foreigners who cross their borders illegally, so their complaints about the U.S. erecting some kind of fence are hard to take seriously.

Incidentally, Marie Antoinette never said “Let them eat cake,” another piece of bourgeois propaganda that should be retired from public discourse.

 
Comment by Incredulous
2007-05-05 10:39:20

Of course, you posted something else before my letter appeared, so now I have to backtrack a bit. I misunderstood your point. However, I don’t think old people on social security and Medicare are comparable to illegals who haven’t paid into the system. If you limited your scorn to welfare leeches (some welfare recipients are actually needy), then I could almost agree with most of what you’ve said.

 
Comment by SteelCurtain
2007-05-05 10:40:29

Hey western Pennsylvania is a garden spot. Most beautiful part of the country!

 
Comment by in Colorado
2007-05-05 10:52:03

The people you claim want cheap illegal labor, but don’t want government handouts for illegals exist where? Here, everyone I know who employs illegals thinks the government should give them everything, because they, the employers, don’t want to spend anything.

Bingo. Privatize the profits and socialize the costs.

 
Comment by phillygal
2007-05-05 10:52:53

As I see it, the only significant difference between an illegal societal leech and a domestic native-born societal leech is a U.S. birth certificate. There’s certainly no difference in the lack of willingness to shirk personal responsibility in favor of hedonism.

Right.

And we’ll never be able to effectively address the problem of the native-born USA leeches until we stop the border-crashing leeches from Mexico who come in and compound the problem. We’ve got born and bred lowlifes and always have…can you give me one good reason why we need Mexico’s losers to come in and add to the mayhem?

 
Comment by Eudemon
2007-05-05 11:00:14

Huh? On most things, we agree. I surprised you think that we don’t. I agree that open borders are a ridiculous concept. I agree that employers ought to be taken to task for hiring illegals.

I think that maybe I’m just taking it one step further than you. I not only agree with what you’ve said, but I ALSO strongly believe that our native-born leeches are every bit as problematic as the illegals are. In fact, in many ways, they are MORE problematic because they are serving as role models. Illegals would not be coming in droves if they didn’t see millions of Americans successfully screwing over other Americans with the support of an armed government. Like attracts like. Simple as that.

Illegal Mexicans didn’t set up our entitlement structure. Nor did they institutionalize it through 60-70 years of use. Your fellow countrymen leeches did that. And many of your native-born countrymen leeches continue to support it today — all the while bitching about illegal aliens doing the same.

And all the while refusing to mow their own lawns and shoveling their own driveways because such tasks are somehow “beneath” them.

THAT’S the point of my post, incredulous. I apologize if I didn’t make myself clear.

 
Comment by Eudemon
2007-05-05 11:10:29

NOTE: I encourage everyone here to listen to Evan Sayet’s “How Modern Liberals Think” on youtube. I mentioned that below. I’m saying it again now.

Trust me.

 
Comment by Incredulous
2007-05-05 12:05:23

No, Eudemon, I apologize for misapprehending. I like this comment:

“Illegals would not be coming in droves if they didn’t see millions of Americans successfully screwing over other Americans with the support of an armed government. Like attracts like. Simple as that.”

I have no idea what the solution is, other than MANDATORY birth control, MANDATORY education (no dropping out), and possibly some form of government service (military or something) to instill discipline in millions of Americans who have absolutely none. Last night I was amazed to see the Paris Hilton item broadcast as a news alert. Who cares if she goes to jail for 45 days? 4.5 years might be more useful.

Driving around, ugh, Tampa this morning, I was revolted to see that what was once the most boring place on Earth had become the trashiest and most boring. I think I should move back to Atlanta, which, at least, is gorgeous, and where people–or most of them–dress beautifully in public. Of course, it too is home to zillions of dumb asses, but the older generations still have manners and good educations. And there is something to be said for beauty, from landscapes to architecture. I’ve never seen more beautiful gardens and yards than in Atlanta, and houses there, beautiful houses, are really inexpensive compared to here in hell.

 
Comment by Chip
2007-05-05 13:07:45

“I have no idea what the solution is…”

Coupla suggestions: Disabled? No problem, we can help. Able bodied and no job? Here’s a broom/shovel. Here’s a list of local charities. Don’t want to go to the charity (or turned down) and don’t want to work? Let me know when you get hungry enough and we’ll start from the beginning.

The only solution is to disband the welfare apparatus except for the part that cares for those citizens who *cannot* care for themselves. The rest would take care of itself. This solution is theoretical, of course, because politicians, regardless of how you vote, will not implement such a change.

 
Comment by Eudemon
2007-05-05 13:28:51

Another idea is for those of us with this mind set to become teachers. People who have little use for leeches need to suck it up, accept the paycuts and get in elementary and junior high schools and begin the re-education process.

About three years ago, as a friend of mine watched me get into a bit of a rage, he threw that very thing right in my face, suggesting the proverbial ‘unless you’re part of the solution, you are part of the problem.”

The bastard was right, of course. (It’s why he remains one of my best friends.) Two years ago I quit my corporate job. I’m now about to finish a masters in elementary education.

Now, it’s my turn to be a bastard. My question for anyone reading this is what are YOU personally going to do to turns things around? Don’t ask others or “the government” to do it - YOU do it.

 
Comment by skip
2007-05-05 15:02:10

I would be happy if all the illegals in Texas just bought car insurance.

 
 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2007-05-05 09:49:11

Right on Jerry. Don’t expect change from our Republicrat political masters, though. The Democrats salivate over having millions of Democrat-on-Arival illegal aliens ripe for a citizenship-for-votes scheme, not to mention a huge new entitlement class for welfare, social services, etc. to add to the parasite class the Dem’s will depend on to gain monopoly power in future elections. The Republicans see cheap union-busting labor for their corporate wire-pullers, and well as cheap nannies and yard-boys for themselves and their gated communities. Plus illegal and legal immigrants alike have huge armies of lawyers and lobbyists working on their behalf, while the productive citizens of this country have no one to promote and protect their interests in Washington.

Can you imagine the vast improvement we’d have in our “leadership” if only productive citizens, who pay more into the system in taxes than they take out in benefits, were allowed to vote?

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Comment by Eudemon
2007-05-05 10:10:12

Nice post, Sammy. Especially that last paragraph.

I assume you’re already aware of a speech given by comedian Evan Sayet? Title is “How Modern Liberals Think”. If not, you can download it via youtube. As always, you’ll want to do something else for an hour while waiting for it download. The price you pay for using that site.

Anyway, Sayet is brilliant. I highly recommend it giving it a listen/viewing. You should listen to it too, Jerry.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2007-05-05 10:22:14

I will, thanks.

 
 
Comment by Navygator
2007-05-05 12:30:55

“I have friends from other countries who ask me why we allow so many uneducated people into this country while making educated people wait up to ten years for a greencard. We are no longer an agricultural and industrial society. We don’t need huddled masses of uneducated immigrant laborers anymore. We need more doctors, scientists and engineers.”

I have a close friend from Spain. She came to the US as a high school exchange student and decided to stay and do her college work here. She was an IB student in all accelerated classes in college. Graduated with a 3.9 GPA w/a BS in International Communications. She speaks English (and 3 other languages) better than I do. Because of our lovely immigration laws every time she would find a job the INS would deny her a work visa b/c she was “taking away an American’s job”. She was deported about 4 years ago and has been desperately trying to return ever since. About the same time she was deported my BIL travels to Bolivia, falls in love and brings his girlfriend and her 3yo daughter back illegally. They get married and she is is now a citizen. She has been here 4 years and speaks very broken English. She has a HS education and cleans houses part time. She has no further aspirations than having more kids (they just had their second baby last month). I think that is a great example of our immigration system at work.

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Comment by Vmaxer
2007-05-05 09:10:00

“It’s a no-brainer…80 million boomers pushin’ on, with 50 million Gen Y, X’ers to replace them.

That’s a 30 million gap.”

That’s exactly why I think this problem in real estate is going to grind on far longer than anyone imagines. Real estate could be the worst investment for the next 20 years. Most of these boomers have little savings for retirement and plan on selling and down sizing, to fund their retirement. There’s going to be constant selling pressure for the next couple decades. Add to that boomers dyeing and the homebuilders continuing to build.

 
 
 
Comment by Rainman18
2007-05-05 06:44:10

re tear downs,

On my street in Encinitas, Ca (no. San Diego County) there is a diverse collection of 50’s era good size beach cottages, a few townhouses and the like. Of the 16 houses, 4 are currently in various stages of tear down including a charming older house that was in great shape being replaced by a zero lot line modern looking cubeish McWhatever and 3 others have allready been torn down and replaced wtih similar in the past 4 years. Sometimes I feel like I’ll go on vacation one day and wont be able to find my house when I get back, either I wont recognize my street or someone will tear it down my mistake in the frenzy.

The Rutledge Inn looked like a cool place.
http://www.sfdj.com/rutledge/Rutledge.html#inn

Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-05 06:53:58

Rainman…

I’ve found in my travels that those that live amongst history, live the richest lives, as they are de facto keepers of the flame.

Imagine living in Milan, with the Duomo dominating, always?

Sadly, we’ve turned into a tear down nation in more ways than one.

 
 
Comment by seminole
2007-05-05 06:46:33

I’ve eaten at the crab pot a couple of times, sorry it’s gone. It is a lousy site for a condo anyway as it is too close to high crime areas, no buffer zone.

Comment by snake charmer
2007-05-05 08:12:38

This collection of stories touches what to me is one of the most pernicious effects of the bubble in this state, that being the destruction of old Florida to make way for aesthetically and culturally worthless “luxury” flipper properties marketed as dreams, investments, and lifestyle transformations to real estate parvenus and assorted people who don’t live here, not to mention to the greedy, the scared, and the ignorant.

I’m not saying old Florida was attractive. A lot of times it wasn’t. But it had a ratty cracker charm and at least you knew where you were. Just in Tampa, we’ve lost a couple of unique restaurants, and other areas that once were distinctive have become the same bland soul-destroying mixture of big houses, small lots, strip malls and six-lane highways. Sometimes I wish we had the ability to just start over.

 
 
Comment by Matt
2007-05-05 07:01:01
Comment by GotRocks
2007-05-05 07:12:13

Right out of the movie Glen Gary / Glen Ross (you can see the agents, in their office with each other, laughing at these idiots).

Actually, these people didn’t lose too much, and they can sit on it without the incredible expense (assuming they only bought one lot) and cash drain of the usual FBs.

But seriously, anyone who doesn’t run for the hills when they see the name “Florida” associated with a real estate offer is sure to get soaked.

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2007-05-05 07:56:08

If those investors live long enough, say 200 years, they might find themselves owning property in something similar to Palmcaster, CA :-)

 
Comment by hd74man
2007-05-05 08:45:06

Signal of the top

Connin’ little ‘ole ladies out of pension monies to buy worthless land.

Same thing in the ‘90/’91 bust which took a decade to unwind.

There will be no unwinding of this debacle other than a world-wide depression brought on by the sleazebag banksters and Wall Street finance scammers

 
 
Comment by dimedropped
2007-05-05 07:11:22

This standstill reminds me of a saying in the Marine Corps. “We are not retreating, just advancing in another direction.”

Comment by the_economist
2007-05-05 08:33:39

Yes, That was marine general Oliver Smith that said that…He also
had another great line…When one of his subordinates told him their division was completely surrounded, he said “Hot damn, now we can shoot in any direction and hit the bastards”.

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2007-05-05 07:14:30

Front page story in the Boston Herald today about a local political movement which wants to levy a triple increase in local excise taxes against SUV owners, on the basis of their energy consumption and contribution to pollution.

Watch for the same against the McMansion crowed.

Madame DeFarge is coming.

 
Comment by wmbz
2007-05-05 07:22:19

“Briggs said the Bonita Bay Group does not plan to cut any more jobs. ‘We have every confidence that things are going to turn around,’ she said. ‘It’s just taking longer to do so than we had hoped.’

Once again
I just wish once, a note taker/reporter would ask these clowns what’s going to turn it around,
In the near future?

 
Comment by stanleyjohnson
2007-05-05 07:23:17

Agents had hoped a resolution to the tax problem this month would at least give buyers the confidence to make offers before hurricane season begins June 1.”

Move into a house you just purchased on June 30 and hope it doesn’t get blown away before school starts. Great plan

Comment by Les Pendens
2007-05-05 07:57:38

uhh…If we have another active hurricane season this little game is OVER….I mean DONE.

When there is a hurricane, named storm, or even a tropical depression in the carribbean; insurance companies will not write a binder of any sort on a home in Florida.

If we have another situation similiar to 2004 ( IE: one storm after another ) it could take months to close just because of the insurance….

Good luck with that:)

Comment by Eastofwest
2007-05-05 10:43:43

Les, That has already happened without any major storms last year..Was it Allstate, and USAA that bailed last few months?
I know a few ‘old timers’ that have their homes paid off for years finally decide to ‘go bare’ (no isurance ) because their policies have gone up 4x. The curtain definately has finally risen, it will be an interesting show I believe.

 
 
 
Comment by bubbleRefuge
2007-05-05 08:34:27

On the tax issue, I think legislators and most rational people anticipate house prices are going to continue to decline till they are affordable. So that means lots of tax revenue is going to decline because it is based on property values. Perhaps their is a reluctance to meaningfully lower property taxes because of the specter of a large percentage decline in property values. If this happens their is going to be lots of heads cut off at the local government level.

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-05 08:43:44

ZipRealty.com’s SD county inventory (SFRs+condos) is poised to broach 18,000 by next weekend (it has been increasing by 220 homes a week on average since Feb 1).

“Your search has returned the first 200 of 17856 homes”

 
Comment by Big_Bob_Slob
2007-05-05 08:44:06

There has been a sudden spike in inventory here in Chico California this month. The number of homes on the market has gone from 620 at the beginning of the month to 685 at the end. Sudden spikes were also seen in Paradise, Oroville and Magalia.

 
Comment by Chip
2007-05-05 09:00:21

“‘I wish we had never sold it,’ Doris Crouse said after being told of the developer’s decision. ‘It’s just dirt now,’ she said.”

Gosh, Ms. Crouse — you, you mean, omigosh, you mean you wish you hadn’t accepted ALL THAT MONEY for your old hotel? That’s OK, honey, share with us — we know it’s painful.

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2007-05-05 09:16:36

Featured quote from today’s LATimes business section:

“It appeared to us that consumers were just frozen”
–Brad Bradshaw
Nissan Motor Co.’s North American sales and marketing chief, to Reuters after his company reported an 18% decline in U.S. sales in April.

Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-05 09:28:16

Just another dumb brad, in a world of dumb brads..

 
 
Comment by AC
2007-05-05 10:02:09

So how much is real estate tax in Florida anyway that people are blaming it for killing the market? Where I live in TX the property tax is 2.9% of the market value (which is generally very accurate). So for the 300,000 home you are looking at approx $9,000. I can’t believe that the rate is higher in Florida?!

AC

Comment by Patriotic Bear
2007-05-05 10:44:15

Property taxes in Napes are around 1.4% but our prices are sky high. Houses on the water that sold for $500,000. fifteen years ago go for $2,000,000. The new buyer gets hosed. Speculators bought up canal front prorties for $500,000. and knocked down the house. They then put up a $1,000,000 structure and try to sell it for $5,000,000. The original buyer would pay $7,000. in property tax yet expects the new owner to eat $70,000. a year.

The only solution is for prices to drop.

 
Comment by Incredulous
2007-05-05 12:40:56

Where I live in Tampa, taxes are 2.5 -3.0 % of the alleged value, with the baseline starting at what the place last sold for. If the county appraiser thinks you didn’t pay enough, he’ll appraise it for more than you paid. That assessment becomes the new baseline.

I can’t imagine why Naples would have lower tax rates, unless it’s because there are not many poor people living there, and Tampa is crammed with them.

 
Comment by Chip
2007-05-05 13:45:02

“Where I live in TX the property tax is 2.9% of the market value ”

All I know about Texas property is what I’ve read on Ben’s blog, but that’s a fair bit. From what I can tell, the aggravation is because of the high prices in Florida. I’d be happy to pay 10% property tax, if I could get a nice big place for $30,000. Unfortunately, tax rates are mostly irrelevant if you don’t know the prices/values against which they are applied, together with some sense of local incomes.

 
 
Comment by OutofSanDiego
2007-05-05 11:12:50

Ha, ha, ha. Roll back taxes to the 2005 level! I moved to South Florida (Broward County) in Aug 05 and rent. I track home prices very carefully and 2005 seems to have been the height of the market. A lot of good a roll back to that level will help.

 
Comment by HK_Vol
2007-05-06 21:10:26

My dad has a place in both Naples and Tennessee.
On a per square foot basis, the property taxes on his Naples abode is 4.16 times more than his place in Tennessee.

I haven’t checked the insurance rate differences. But he pays “neigborhood fees” in Naples, but none in Tennessee.

I guess that is one reason why Tenneessee is seeing all of these “halfbacks…”

 
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