Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For May 6, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Tons of places for sale in Atlanta area. Prices dont seem very high. I went to zillow and it does not list any housing price fluctuations? Seems like they are keeping a lid on things.
Anyone have any background on Atlanta area?
Inventory is over 100,000.
Zillow.com is a joke. I’ve checked their prices against ACTUAL sold properties in New London County Connecticut and they are way off. Zillow repeatly shows much higher estimates than the actual sales price. Someone should investigate Zillow’s source of data. I do not find their info reliable.
I totally agree. I often check the Zillow price of the condo we sold in Long Beach CA back in ‘05. It’s always listed much higher by Zillow than the actual sales that are going on around there.
We sold our house in RPV @ the top of the market in aug 05′ for 1.26 mil and it’s on zillow for a little over 1.5 mil.
How’z that work?
I also distrust Zillow. I sold my late mother’s house in the Historic District of South Fort Worth in 2004 for $44K. The guy who bought it was a contractor and fixed it up beautifully. He resold it in 2005 for $88K, which seemed fair. Right now, it’s Zestimate is $170K! I almost died laughing when I saw this “value” in this neighborhood. There’s a crack house right around the corner (replete with crack whores) which I saw being raided one night on “Cops”!
zillow me this…
An empty house, nobody home, as they’ve been foreclosed on, yet, the value of the house is still as high as it ever was.
You’ve just entered “the zillow zone”
IIRC they go on stated sales from local data (with some lag time). Some areas post more frequent sales than others, so some areas are more accurate than others.
I live in 1920s-30s NE Atlanta about 2 miles from Mid-town. Market is flat from 2005…most houses moving at about the same pace…some sitting a long time, esp fixers, and some nice, rare old time houses in excellent condition move quick (those within 4 miles of Midtown or Buckhead that is - don’t know about other areas).
Market was fairly slow in 2005 compared to NYC area from whence I moved. There was then and is a lot of inventory - especially outside of the Perimeter. Many, many condos coming online for sale. I have no idea how well or badly things are going outside the Perimeter, except the builders keep building out there and there are some discounts/incentives advertised, though nothing like what is reported in this blog in Fla, CA, etc…
Many foreclosures, esp in the poorer areas. Only a couple SFH foreclosures in my zip - 30306 - so far.
A lot of people seem to be moving here. A good number move on out as well. Major regional HQs and sales offices here may explain that with people doing career rotation to these HQs. This also drives high inventory along with (over)building.
I’d only buy if you have money to weather a downturn, plan to stay for some years, and find something you really, really like. I’d wait 3 years on a condo purchase, there will be pain in that market. I do not expect a crash here for quality close-in SFH to the degree as in bubble markets, but we could see -20% in even nicer, close-in areas where supply is constrained (-20% is a crash if you put zero down!). Outside of the Perimeter (OTP) and lesser areas could be hit worse. All of this depends upon how bad the credit crunch gets, how much over building happens OTP, and how bad psychology gets here.
$5+ gallon gas will impact OTP property values negatively - with a few enclave exceptions (e.g., Alpharetta, Perimeter Mall area). I’d confirm your commute as well…many nightmarish commutes to save $100K-$200K to get a bigger house. 15 minutes to work and 20-30 minutes home for me
…
Finally, zillow estimates are non-existent in Atlanta; though it appears they may be starting to put some in. Tax records and appraisals for older areas are very inconsistent. Best way to determine value is to watch the market 6 months and go to a lot of open houses / tour many and see what sells and for what.
OK — a late reply — rent! Check out:
http://homes.ajchomefinder.com/Rentals/index.asp
and
http://www.rentals.com
There are a lot of rental properties available in the area. Just be sure to check out the bona fides of your landlord — stay away from properties owned by 20-somethings. I’d research the debt on the place, at the courthouse. Rent rates in Atlanta are not bad at all. That will give you lots of time to wait toe market out and find a good deal. If you rent at $1,500/month, your total exposure realistically is never more than about $15K, assuming you’re honest, and it is EASY to save that much on a $200K+ house in a downturn. Remember, nobody is predicting Atlanta prices will rise soon. Even if prices stayed flat, which I doubt, renting still gives you the best way (time) to find the right area and the right price.
new bubble continuation idea from the Netherlands:
We already have special bank loans for people who purchased a new home and still have to sell the previous one; for the second home the bank will offer a loan at a 1-2% rate (tax-deductible so effective cost 1% per year at most), usually for a maximum of two years. Many people have used this option and kept their home on the market for years - why not if the carrying cost is so low and average home prices still rise at least 5-10% yoy.
There is now another bright idea on top of this: one of the biggest mortgage brokers offers an insurance that will cover all the cost in case the first home cannot be sold. Unfortunately they don’t mention the details, but at first sight it sounds like free second homes for everyone … how stupid can it get?
I guess this is just a pure definition of a “nanny-state”.
Only if one doesn’t have to pay the loans back. If one does, then it’s a “Cap’n-she-can’t-hold-on-much-longer” state.
Exactly a year ago today, one of Ben’s posts included the following link:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/05/news/newsmakers/buffett_050606/
Looks like Messrs Buffett & Munger were right to be sceptical.
may 05 might have been considered a prediction
“may 05 might have been considered a prediction”
Right. It was being predicted here in May ‘05 (and earlier).
“If you look at the 10Ks that are getting filed [by banks] and compare them just against last year’s 10Ks, and look at their balances of ‘interest accrued but not paid,’ you’ll see some very interesting statistics [implying that many homeowners are no longer able to service their current debt].”
Exactly.
What will turning the FHA into a govt sponsored subprime lender bring us? More dumb lending, with the consequences added to the taxpayer’s tab.
Munger and Buffett had a wonderful discussion last spring of the consequences.
===========================================================
On mortgage financing
Munger: “There is a lot of ridiculous credit being extended in the U.S. housing sector.”
Buffett: “Dumb lending always has its consequences. It’s like a disease that doesn’t manifest itself for a few weeks, like an epidemic that doesn’t show up until it’s too late to stop it Any developer will build anything he can borrow against. If you look at the 10Ks that are getting filed [by banks] and compare them just against last year’s 10Ks, and look at their balances of ‘interest accrued but not paid,’ you’ll see some very interesting statistics [implying that many homeowners are no longer able to service their current debt].”
I finally broke down and did it. The wife and I had gone over to Brooklyn yesterday (DUMBO). We were walking around and saw a building that had gone condo. The sales office was open. I hesitated but we finally went in. It was the typically Clockwork Orange (milk bar) type lobby. It was heinous.
There was a model on the 2nd floor. Walking through the hallway the place seemed even more hotel-like than other apartments and condos around here. But I think this was a renovated office building. We went into the model/office unit. There were two sales girls in the place. They had all the personality of something you would leave floating in the toilet. I guess these things really sell themselves.
The condo looked nice. That’s what a model is supposed to do. Of course it was completely non-functional. There was no TV set, stereo or storage. The floors were hardwood (big deal). The appliances were higher-end Thermodor. The condo was about 1,300 square feet.
Finally I spotted the chart on the wall. They want $1.1 million for this beast. They want $1.4 million for the higher floors. There is one 800 square foot unit that goes for $640,000. This is insanity. This is in a gentrified neighborhood but there is still nothing much to do. They did have a Starbuck’s nearby. I guess that justified the price. Nearly all of the units were spoken for.
I figure there are a lot of lessons going to be learned. These people will be paying $8,000 - $9,000 per month to say they live across from Manhattan. The world gets dumber everyday.
The sales dimwits didn’t even walk us out. We saw the little laundry room and grabbed a glass of water from the water cooler. That was not offered. I noticed that their Internet connection and IP PBX were in that closet. I was so tempted to unplug them. These morons would have taken 2 days to figure out what happened. The buyers of these anchors will take a lot longer to figure out what happened and the pain will be much greater than that of a disconnected Internet line. Anybody buying those things surely is a DUMBO.
Just wait till interest rates go up, Hedge Funds lose billions in the carry trade, and the economy slides into deep recession. NY will be hit pretty hard.
Some bits bucket cheer (OK I recycled from earlier post but I thought it would lift your spirits, NYCboy) — I tracked nyccraigslist postings in April 2006 by using the search term “sale.” when I did, the listings fell between 3,000-4000 each day I looked. This April? Listings are between 5000-6000 each day. Oh but NYC is different - we don’t have an inventory problem here…
Also NYC, how busy was that sales office?
I think we woke them up when we went in. But the building looked like it was mostly sold out before we got there. They did not only not try to hard sell us but they didn’t sell us at all. And my wife and I definitely don’t look like homeless people. If we don’t look like perspective buyers of such a place then I don’t know who does.
I have yet to get a co-worker to even hint that Manhattan prices will go down. Mass delusions are the best kind.
very true observtions nyc boy. most of these condo sales places are like that these days.
btw the wife and i are moving into our new apartment
which has all theammenities we were looking for and the space as well. it will be a nice palce to sit and wait out this
insanity.
sorry for the poor spelling i have been busy packing and making changes in all our affairs i am tired
Your description of the place and the price are kind of amazing. I think people have been conditioned to accepting these kinds of prices, especially in NY and SoCal; this mind-set is ingrained. I think it will take a good amount of pain to dis-lodge it.
Agree completely. I cringe at what $250K will buy and I consider that amount to be a lot of money, unlike many others I know who think that $400K “sounds like a good deal” no matter what it buys.
People HAD the mindset in 2000 to think Amazon at $300 was cheap and going to $500 real soon…and IT DID, but then ka-BOOM!
I saw this back in 89-90 in My hometown of Norwalk CT, even the junkiest ghetto places were 209,999 ….homes that were $120-130 just a few years before.
I remember a front page Norwak Hour story that there was not one home for sale under $200K in the whole city. Front page news back then
I can beat it.
At least there are lots of jobs and a pretty view near those.
Scottsdale AZ is land of fakers and gold diggers. Sure, lots of companies there, but they are way up in airpark, way on the fringe. NOTHING downtown but overpriced restaurants, art shops, a shopping mall packed with over priced shops, etc. Oh, and an irrigation canal.
http://www.scottsdaleaz.gov/projects/waterfront/
http://www.scottsdalewaterfront.com/
Then click on the logo…
STARTING at $1.6 million for a condo? I have seen reports that some were sold for $2.5 million.
You can rent an apartment a mile away for $600 a month.
Does this place look like it is “as good as it gets” in San Diego…LMAO…this guys “come on” sounds typical of a slimy realtor: http://sandiego.craigslist.org/rfs/325027907.html
Flagged
TX, why is it flagged? Do you just hate Kevin Bacon that much? You must really have a grudge against Footloose.
Six degrees of seperation of fools from their money…
“THIS ONE BEDROOM 1 BATH CONDO IS THE IDEAL PROPERTY TO GET STARTED ON THE REAL ESTATE TRAIN…CLIMB ON BOARD AND MAKE THIS YOUR STEPPING STONE TO PROPERTY OWNERSHIP IN SAN DIEGO”
Some call it Amtrak, we call it the train!
We all line up in a single file line,
waiting for someone to stick us in the behind!
We took the train once from union station down to del mar and having ridden boucoup miles on choo choos all over the world, we were shocked at the shoddy service of our less than fleet, aging railroad system…
Connect the dots.
Remind me never to visit Pensacola.
About a year ago the Optima Biltmore lofts cut their prices 50%. These are about 6 miles west of Scottsdale. I don’t know if they are still suffering from a lack of buyers. Funny how you mention, Darrel, that Scottsdale is the land of fakers and gold diggers. Very true. I also found the same in Los Angeles. But that does not mean I dislike either place. It’s a dog eat dog world. My dad was the victim of theft in the 1970s by a business associate who claimed to be a minister. I have been swindled a couple of times. Please excuse me but I always assume a stranger is out to rip me off before I get to know who that person is. Those who never were ripped off will not understand my distrust of fellow man. it just takes a few instances of being ripped off or seeing someone you know get ripped off.
A stranger is a fiend you haven’t met.
Beyond belief. There are two Americas. One that will pay anything to live in an urban cave and the other America, the one that realizes things are ridiculous and may just get more ridiculous before they get better.
We rent a 60’s ranch style house in Sarasota. Zillow has had it for the last 6 months ‘zestimated’ at about 300K.
Last month the house across the street sold for 225K. (As documented in Zillow) That house is slightly nicer and with a bigger garage than our rental
The ‘zestimate’ value for our rental has NOT changed.
Zillow is a joke!
yes zillow is a joke
Joke is right. The “zestimate” on our house was 100K over what it actually sold for last year. (And it was hard to sell.) When they finally started showing the actual sale price, it had no effect on the “zestimate”.
FIRE THE CANNONS!
http://tampa.craigslist.org/apa/321861423.html
Love it, Muggy. I wonder if they will get a deal, though. I have found that the stubbornness of owner landlords in this part of Florida is mind-boggling.
Ouch!
This next quote almost brought a tear to my eyes.
“However, with the major real estate downturn in Florida, we are interested in finding an even nicer ocean front condo that has an even better view of the Gulf for the same or less money.”
The REIC has lost at Stalingrad and is in full retreat. The renters are taking over the battlefield. Woo hoo.
Renters are not taking over just yet, but they are starting to fire the warning shots. Most landlords are still being meatheads. I drove by a duplex yesterday that had been advertised. The rent the guy wants for something in the middle of Little Tiajuana is stupid. But, here’s an interesting trend in Florida: “SECTION 8 WELCOME!” is on the increase.
What should this place really rent for. It’s pretty nice but this rent is ridiculous.
http://sarasota.craigslist.org/apa/324893215.html
Do you think the rent is too high or too low? That’s what we pay for a studio apartment here in New York. That place looked pretty nice to me. The rent didn’t seem too high.
Looks like its in the ballpark to me. Somewhere between $2,000 to $2,500 INCLUDING lawn and pool service.
Sarasota is not New York City.
The Median Income is like 40k.
I doubt it is that much higher here. Everybody just wants to act like it is.
I’m renting in Sarasota and that strikes me as a pretty reasonable deal. Average incomes don’t justify it, but it’s not an average property.
I’d take it at $2K. Wondered if that would be justified.
Possible long-term lease or lease-option———–
YES YES YES, the new buyers would have to pay me a lot to break MY LONG TERM cheap lease….
Yeah hard for me judge– in my neck of the woods that kind of money would get you an okay flat.
I think $2,000 is about right, considering that yard and pool care are included. The Gulf-access part is BS. It’s mosquito-access instead. If there were a dock, there’d be a photo of it; tenants aren’t going to build a dock.
Call 911, I think this seller is having a stroke:
http://tampa.craigslist.org/rfs/320404844.html
Nevermind, I think that’s a spambot.
Renters beware, the landloard speaketh with two tongues, and photograph with two angles:
http://tampa.craigslist.org/rfs/324135479.html
http://tampa.craigslist.org/apa/322192820.html
The gall!
How would it even be possible that this rambler has cathedral ceilings? I must not know what qualifies as a cathedral ceiling.
Its a 9 foot ceiling instead of 7 foot 6…. close enough for guvmint work.
Largo is several miles from the beaches. Nice enough town, though ancient. I’d think $80K in a “real” market, maybe 100K if the ‘hood is decent. That “cathedral” ceiling comes from there being no attic space over that room — maybe just a tiny breathing space for air to pass from one end to the other.
Me want. But it’s small.
http://santafe.craigslist.org/rfs/325282186.html
This place seems at least $250,000 overpriced to me.
Anybody else wearing designer survival genes?
Much of what I blather on about on here stems from my parents experiences, as it is baked into the cake, that is me.
My mother was a child of the Great Depression.
My father was a Victor Laszlo, of sorts. The fictional Mr. Laszlo escaped his fate, vis a vis a hollywood film shot in van nuys. My father endured the twinbill of fascism, nazisim and communism, before making good his escape from tyranny, to neutral Switzerland.
Can anybody else relate?
I grew up in Minnesota.
I never grew up, but lived in Illinois a long time.
My mom was the youngest of 8 kids in a family that wouldn’t have called themselves poor, but they worked like dogs (farming, gardening, canning food, raising livestock) to make it during the depression. My grandpa bought a small acreage (10+ acres) on contract at a time when people did installment sales expecting to get the property back. He and the whole family worked like dogs and paid it off early and then had a big celebration when they owned the place free and clear. The lady that sold it to them was very surprised (and disappointed) when they paid it off and that she didn’t get the property back.
My aversion to debt is largely a product of such family lore. Am I sacrificing some return in the good times? Maybe. But when the SHTF and cash is king I’ll be able to go against the crowd. Peace of mind is underrated.
Also, I have memories of the early 80’s farm depression in Iowa with the prime rate at 21.5% and farmers being foreclosed upon left and right. It was a brutal time for farmers with much suffering all around and when bankers were afraid for their safety and that of their families, with many a threatening late night phone call.
The younger bankers and farmers have no memory of such bad times and caution has, in many cases, been thrown to the wind. With the ethanol boom, farmland has done amazing well in recent years and everyone is feeling flush.
I hope the good times continue to roll, but I have my doubts about the energy efficiency of turning corn into gasohol. If the gov’t subsidy, import tariff, or mandates ever go bye-bye, lookout below. Not to mention if they come up with an enzyme that allows cellulosic ethanol (switchgrass, etc.) to be cost effective. And who knows about any other potential energy breakthroughs.
From Ohio. I’ve partaken of government cheese and bread as a kid. I thought it was “neat.” I’m sure my parents didn’t.
My father was 9 in 1929. My mom was born that year. They were very frugal and I learned from them. Despite having one car, one television, and no vacations outside the U.S. and hardly ever dining out, they were better off than many of today’s married couples. My mom was a homemaker and my dad worked from home. They raised 4 kids, three of them finished college and the fourth got her equivalent degree. My parents paid off their house. These days most couples have to be slaves to “the man” to afford the plasma TVs, and the 5 other television sets and 4 PCs, tons of video games for the kids, they have to send their teens to an ocean cruise when they are in high school (unheard of when I was a teen). They have to have two SUVs ($80,000) and buy their kids cars and buy insurance and pay speeding tickets for the kids. They have to buy all these Ipods and cell phones.
I could go on and on.
The remarkable thing is today there is no time enough for spending time with families anymore, for the average parent. I figure it would take an annual income of $200,000 per year to live the equivalent middle class lifestyle of the 1970s. My parents had a lower middle class lifestyle, albeit a 3,000 square foot house with four garages and a built-in swimming pool, (which I had to maintain when I was a teen, and that included taking apart the pump, cleaning the filter and stuff, and putting it all together again).
When I was a kid we were rich. I had a stay at home mom. We had a milkman, iceman, bread man, and a doctor that made house calls. When we purchased gasoline we stayed in the car, the attendant did the pumping. So much for the good old days.
I had my one and only house call from a doctor in 1982, after getting on a big jet airliner, to Auckland, NZ, with a slight cold, that turned into a nasty flu. I was in a hotel room for a few days, terrified to call for help, as I knew how expensive doctor visits might be.
Finally, I called the front desk and an hour later the doctor showed up, black leather bag and all. He told me I had a nasty flu and needed medicine, and told me I was in no condition to go out, so he’d go fetch it for me.
20 minutes later he came back and I asked what I owed him and he told me “$5.00 for the house call and $2.00 for the medicine”…
My love affair with New Zealand continues to thrive.
Damn, Bill, you just described my teenage years in the 70’s, too, although I would’ve characterized it as upper-middle at the time.
Both sets of grandparents vividly described the depression. Truthfully, I could not relate at the time, but I’m learning fast and remembering everything they told me.
Funny, aladinsane. Almost the very same, but my father was a child of the GD while my mother lived through WWII in Vienna.
Yes, heard all the stories, and to this day, they are more frugal than anyone else I know. They also have no debt as everything (houses, cars, etc.) has long been paid off. No granite kitchens or SS appliances for them, though!
This is my sisters house that is for sale, if anyone wants to live a a very larger lake in Lexington, S.C.
http://www.wrisley.com/lakehouse.htm
For that price the land must be worth the exorbitant value because the finishing of the inside of that hosue was done on a serioously shoestring budget.
hosue= house
serioously = seriously
Otherwise one fugly house.
Don’t worry about typos. We all know that some are better typists than others. No biggie. It seems that whenever I omit to proof a post of my own, it is usually rife with typos.
Thanks, felt stoopid after I sent it since it was proof read.
D’oh not again.
Nice place but who has that kind of bank in South Carolina?
No but doez equitie lokust fum noo york and califonication, wid dear $500,000 tax free exemption could afford it.
Believe it or not, houses sell from around $450,000.00 to 6,000,000.00 on this lake and the half backs are moving in left and right. To damn bad though they really stink up the place! The prices are just plain out of reach for the vast majority.
I’ve heard that South Carolina taxes are a bitch. At least, relative to the rest of the South.
http://safehaven.com/article-7491.htm
More housing data and charts.
Rent a 2300 sqft house for $925.
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/apa/325047147.html
Paid $194K
http://www.azcentral.com/class/marketplace/homes.php?pgAction=homedetail&address=1830+E+OMEGA+DR&city=QUEEN+CREEK&zip=85242
Ad says it is 3 years old. 3 years old my arse.
California based speculators took out a $116K construction loan in 8/07.
http://co.pinal.az.us/Recorder/Search/SrchDetails.asp?t=gg&fy=2005&fn=105875&l=true
Interest only ARM started at 2.5%, but first reset upto 11.625%, with changes up to 2% each six months.
And $70K piggyback.
http://co.pinal.az.us/Recorder/Search/SrchDetails.asp?t=gg&fy=2006&fn=123108&l=true
So they are paying $1700-2000 a month for mortgages + HOA fees, insurance, taxes.
They took posession in February. It’s been for sale, along with 375+ other homes in that zip code for $300K to $150K.
90 days later, and they are willing to rent for well under 1/2 their carrying costs.
I guess they are willing to take the $1500 a month loss “until the market improves”.
I GUARANTEE they only want Month to Month tenants.
Nice homework.
Time2Buy mansion (for real)?
“For anyone interested in buying all or part of the spectacular 360-acre grounds, including the 50-room Georgian mansion, “now is the time to make the call,” said Edgar “Eddie” Scott III, a scion of the Montgomery-Scott-Wheeler family and its spokesman for the sale.
“Let’s be clear: Now’s the time,” he reiterated during an exclusive interview with The Inquirer at Ardrossan, in Radnor Township. “Let’s not rest on rumor or innuendo. The whole picture is too important to be vague about it.”
Nonetheless, Scott, a real estate broker, said it was too early to discuss what would be an acceptable offer. Land in the Villanova neighborhood has been listed as high as $900,000 an acre. Ardrossan’s price, he said, would depend largely on what the buyer wanted to do with it.”
“Philadelphia Story” Estate for Sale
Hope Montgomery Scott was the inspiration for Katharine Hepburn’s character in the movie. Click on the link below Eddie’s pic to see aerial views of the estate.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-evict6may06,0,5268127.story?coll=la-home-headlines
LA times article on Foreclosure/eviction pain in the Inland empire.
To paraphrase the great Jared Diamond…
What was it like to be the last homeowner in the inland empire?
The IE will be the Empire of pain for all those suckers/FB’ers who thought that paying $600,000 for a 4/3 redtiled MCCrapper in a brand-new McDevelopment in any IE area was a smart deal at the peak. I do not care whether the purchased in North FOntana off the Foothill fwy or way out in the flat dessicated moonscape Perris Basin, they are all in Foreclosure Hell. Lots of work for the Sheriffs/bailiffs/foreclosure specialists all over the iE who will be quite busy next several years.
Oh man, that had me rolling laughing. I took his course at UCLA prior to the publication of Collapse, and his voice just ran through my mind when I read that. “What was it like to cut the last tree down on Easter Island?”
Just today, I read a strong theory that it was the rats who destroyed the last of the trees there. Contested among scientists, of course, but the reasoning and evidence were decent.
The scariest part of that el lay times article?
“On the front door is taped a note from the owner, Partha Chowdhury, asserting with vehemence but inept spelling that he is still in “possion” of this house. “Beware,” he writes, “house is armed.”
Forest gumps, with a 91 i.q., but no charm.
Down to the very last thing they didn’t sell off, their weaponry.
Many would submit that the more guns the merrier, but many are in for a rude awakening.
Get out of the big cities, while there is still time…
My wife just informed me that Forest Gump’s IQ was 75. 91 is within normal range. You’re too kind to the I.E.
We tend to think of people with IQ’s below 100 as being “retarded”. By definition, half the population has an IQ below 100.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ
great post…lots of comedy bits from that one
I read that this morning as well. I don’t know why, but it made me think of this song:
Video
Midi
Who’s that knocking on my door
Its gotta be a quarter to four
Is it you again coming round once more
Well you can serve me now if you want
But that doesn’t mean that I’ll be gone
Im talkin to you
Foreclosed, kicking me out
Foreclosed, I can scream and shout
Foreclosed, I was such a fool
I want some money…
Got a most persuasive gun
You’re ruining all my fun
But what you don’t understand
Im a working man
Need another shot of HELOC money
Before the time the bank’s finished with me
Im talking to you
Foreclosed, what is up with that?
Foreclosed, why you dirty rat
Foreclosed, took my Hummer too,
I need some money…
(breakdown, solo)
Imagine how my lifestyle felt
Now you’ve whacked me upside with a smelt
Thirty Five years old
Now this the hand I’m dealt
I’m in hock right up to my neck
Making me a financial wreck
Im talking to you
Foreclosed, got the subprime blues
Foreclosed, send me back to school
Foreclosed, I was such a fool
I want some money…
Foreclosed, made me a mark
Foreclosed, guess I’m not so sharp
Foreclosed, keep your threats to yourself
I need some money…
Foreclosed, you’re kicking me out
Foreclosed, I can scream and shout
Foreclosed, send me back to school
I want some money…
good one~
ha
Anyone have a link to the chart that looks at the the stages of a bubble? I do not remeber them all or the order of them but it shows denial, anger, exceptance, depression and so on. Could some one please post the link so I can print / save it? Thanks
Here ya go: http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/6089/1833/1600/6547/stages_2.jpg
THANK YOU! I am doing a job that a really, really hate with no way out, other than walk away form my job. I want this chart to help me trak where I am and maybe show it to some co workers for a laugh/information. As for the bubble I think we are starting to head out of denial. Thanks again.
You know… that’s a Kondratieff Wave, too.
OT- A few people in the past had asked where the next bubble market might be. I truly believe the next bubble market will be in green energy and green building. I had mentioned that last year and now everybody is going green, seems to be the trendy thing to do for many ( where I see it as reaching an ultimatum in choices and creature comforts).Any thoughts on this…
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4499562022478442170
The Great Global Warming Swindle
er, kckid…
Maybe you didn’t catch that large parts of the California agricultural empire were froze out, along with their southeastern counterparts and the fact that Mother Nature (always bat’s last) is seemingly 6 weeks ahead of normal calendar weather, or the fact that F el lay is in the midst of a horrible drought and on the verge of having no fresh water and California is just 6 months away from having none, either. Or that little thing with bees?
There are going to be so many people Darwined off this planet.
in Europe just like in the US or elsewhere, weather records are shattered every month. In Netherlands we just had the driest month in history (0.1 mm rain in 35 days, that’s about a factor 500 below average). February had about the same average temperature as the average June. And if you check the warmest years in history (about 400 years of data available over here) eight of them are within the last ten years. If there is a swindle it must be in ignoring facts like these …
10 years out of millions does’nt make a trendline in my books. I do think that alot of people are going to make a lot of money trading carbon offset credits. These hustlers have a great cottage industry just getting started.
A great setup for future carbon taxation and a diminished standard of living for the Western world. All in the name of saving the enviroment with little scientific backing.
When I was a little bit younger the so-called scientific community was predicting the advent of the next ice age. I love science. I earn my living with science. i just don’t see any real science in the “science” community that shoves their latest mania down our throats.
Hetch Hetchy is @ 27% of capacity, and there is no more water…
Frisco goes bone dry, come the fall.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18153107/
If I owned a home in baghdad by the bay, i’d beat the rush and sell it, yesterday, if it was me.
Count me in with the skeptics.
Global Warming Fears Overblown:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17997788/site/newsweek/
The next bubble will be in cheap Manufactured prefabs, cheap double-decker trailer parks sited on former environmentally-tainted industrial properties of the IE or out in the vast open land-cheap SCAL deserts.
There will a surging demand from the soon to be propertyless foreclosed=upon former IE Fb’ers numbering in the hundreds of 1000.s. Lots of LA/OC FB foreclosed-upon expatriates needing cheap Stand-alone trailers out in the IE Boonies/deserts will add to the demand.
This is BTW a ittle discussed issue on Ben’s Blog: The RE market in Trailer/mobile-home parks. Here in the Greater LA Basin/IE/OC one can spot them all over, in all types and variations. There are the absolute 8X 10 ft trashed-out truck camp-shell-types sited in tucked away forgotten lots/plots in the crapped out inner LA areas.
At the other extreme are hi-end trailer park estates with clubhouse, pool,on=site market,regular activities, ect. Some of these are desighed as senior=oriented guarded estates.
And then there are the parking lots at the beach - ever heard of Dockweiler Beach? It’s right under the LAX runways:
http://gocalifornia.about.com/od/calamenu/p/beach_dock.htm
“At the other extreme are hi-end trailer park estates with clubhouse, pool,on=site market,regular activities, ect. Some of these are desighed as senior=oriented guarded estates.”
I saw a lot of these in Desert Hot Springs last weekend. They had big fountains in front of the gates, which were surrounded by strips of green lawn (luxury being signified in that part of the world by the ability and inclination to waste water.
I think that trailer parks will continue to thrive in Florida, even though they are absolute toast in a bad storm. The 55+ crowd increasingly will find them a good winter-home alternative to buying a condo or renting at the beach. I hink they’ll go bare on insurance, for the most part. If they can get a tricked-out Fleetwood doublewide (or whatever the brands are these days) for under $100K delivered, it will be a good deal for them and they’ll stop worrying about how to unlaod the homestead up north.
“HOUSING SCENE LEW SICHELMAN
Find out why that appraisal has come in too low
May 6, 2007
WASHINGTON – Much to their chagrin, many buyers, sellers and owners are finding out that in today’s down market, their homes aren’t worth what they thought they were. At least, not in the eyes of the professionals hired to tell lenders what the places could fetch on the open market if borrowers failed to make their payments.
In a perfect world, the value of a property is what a buyer will pay for it. But the housing market is imperfect at best: Values rise and fall with the tides, and market forces do not act as freely as they should.
For example, buyers sometimes will pay whatever the seller asks just to get their hands on a house they’ve come to love. And in a few instances, buyers and sellers intentionally conspire to inflate the agreed-upon price to defraud the lender and line their pockets.
No! Say it ain’t so, Lou…
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070506/news_1h06sichel.html
just imagine in a few years: and in a few instances, buyers and lenders intentionally conspire to deflate the agreed-upon price to defraud the seller and line their pockets.
Here’s one to check out…
http://businomics.typepad.com/businomics_blog/2007/05/housing_vacancy.html
Pure 100% schadenfreude…
http://www.amazon.com/Good-Soldier-Svejk-Fortunes-Classics/dp/0140449914
median household income 45k, median cost of homes 300k. not many outstanding jobs in area. economy comprises of agriculture, some oil and a bunch of low paying distribution centers. bakersfield ca is overbuilt without regard to considering cross town freeways–i e lack of planning. Investors from all over, particularly, LA and SF has speculated in this area. Builders have underestimated the fraud in owner occupied statements. Credit was available to anybody who could breath. The price of a median home here was not more that 150K before this financial fiasco. Last but not least the mantra was homes can only go up; buy yourself a home and retire–the madness of crowds. What occurred here was a classic buyers panic in which “buy yourself a home or be price out forever” was the slogan for brokers, bankers and real estate pros. People that have the fiduciary obligation to say otherwise.
Local RE firm is no more:
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com/
It now appears that the boom Crisp claimed would to continue, (”Bakersfield has another two or three years before it ‘levels out’ “), has gone bust! Foreclosures are up dramatically, sales are down significantly and the local MLS has been flooded with a tsunami of listing.
Time for you to concoct a new blog handle, pal…
Post-toastie?
The new president of France is…
(probably) Nicolas Sarkozy
According to exit polls released by Belgian and Suisse press(because not allowed in France before 20.00h) Nicolas Sarkozy has won with around 54% of the votes against 46% for Segolene Royal.
So maybe France will continue his housingbubble for another round…
I have no doubt that both candidates would do anything they can to continue blowing bubbles. In many EU countries Labour politicians or ’socialists’ are the prime driving force behind the bubble; of course all the other big political parties stand firmly behind the housing bubble as well.
Strange though that property bubble didn’t come through in terms of hotel rents. They were the absolute least expensive we found planning our trip later this year.
I think the big difference is that empty hotel rooms are NOT profitable, unlike empty homes (and in some countries empty offices …). Inflated prices don’t work for hotels.
http://rebalancing.blogspot.com/2007/04/hedge-fund-borrowing-propping-up-dollar.html
How will the hedges unload the bubbleliciously-overvalued stocks and $US on somebody else before the great unraveling? Will it come in the form of something extraordinary like a too-big-to-fail bailout (LTCM style), or something more mundane, like routine asset sales to GFs just before the crash (tech stock and housing bubble bust style)?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/06/business/yourmoney/06view.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
“So you might think that a sharp slowdown in growth in the United States — the domestic economy grew at a measly 1.3 percent annual clip in the first quarter this year, less than half the 2006 rate — would mean trouble for the rest of the global economy. Right?
Wrong.
As the domestic growth rate has declined sharply in recent quarters, the rest of the world is growing rapidly. India is blowing the door off its hinges. China’s economy is expanding at a double-digit pace.”
WRONG. The idea that one can diversify out of U.S. macroeconomic risk by going long into China and India may play well for stock salesmen who make money when U.S. investors invest overseas, but it will turn out badly for U.S. investors who buy into this story.
I know this is the conventional wisdom, but it completely overlooks the tight correlation which was fostered by the symbiosis between the U.S. and China, which will not suddenly end as the U.S. slows down. The U.S. is still the 800 lb. gorilla in the global economy, and other countries have depended on us as the engine of world economic growth for too long for them to suddenly shrug it off if our macroeconomy gets dragged into recession by the housing bust.
Let’s agree to compare notes on this point again in Spring 2008…
The co-dependency between the US and Asian tiger economies is indeed interesting. I think that many are hoping that this will be what it takes to restart the bubble.
“I think that many are hoping that this will be what it takes to restart the bubble.”
It was what it took to start the 1997 Asian currency crisis. I don’t know nothin’ about restarin’ no bubble, though.
Is there some kind of govt subsidy involved in the “rebalancing” (aside from the implicit too-big-to-fail guarantee that the Greenspan Fed established with the LTCM bailout)?
maybe Paulson’s remarks from end of last year (widely discussed recently) are seen as a new version of the Greenspan Put?
http://alephblog.com/?p=104
Thanks txchick.
And the naive still think they’re “investing” in these markets
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=amK25dKbMrhQ&refer=news
“Chess vs Markets
“Take chess. Deep Blue, a chess-playing supercomputer developed by International Business Machines Corp., defeated world champion Garry Kasparov in 1997. The rules of chess never change, however. Players have one goal: to capture the opponent’s king. There are only so many moves a player can make, and Deep Blue could evaluate 200 million such positions a second.
“Financial markets, on the other hand, can be influenced by just about anything, from skirmishes in the Middle East to hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. In computerspeak, chess is a closed system and the market is an open one.
“‘AI is very effective when there’s a specific solution,’ Hamilton says. ‘The real challenge is where judgment is required, and that’s where AI has largely failed.’”
That sounds to me like the silver bullet.
I wouldn’t get too hung up on propaganda pieces suggesting that supersmart computers can consistently beat the market. Remember that the LTCM crisis involved a hedge fund that was using rocket science finance to gain an edge. The strategy worked great, until the day the fund blew up.
From Business 2.0 via Yahoo:
Jobs are starting to feel the impact of a slowing economy
In case you thought the rest of the economy was fine, now comes the other shoe.
Now for the flip side: Around the rest of the country, stories like Callidus’s are becoming the exception, not the rule.
Becoming? In many places the lack of quality jobs has been the status quo for the past 7 years.
In many places the lack of quality jobs has been the status quo for the past 7 years.
———————–
Yep. The housing bubble has masked the recession that’s been there all along (since 2000/2001), IMHO. It’s prolonged it, and will it to become even worse, once it becomes obvious again.
I’m more than a little worried about Carmela’s real estate holdings…
Renting is the new black (w/a tip ‘o the hat to TxChick!)…
I propose Category 6: You don’t like to lose money purchasing overpriced assets while their market values are dropping.
——————————————————————————–
5 Reasons To Rent
By Vivian Marino
Published: May 3, 2007
There is no denying that home ownership can have its advantages: It helps build wealth through accumulated home equity and appreciation, provides tax benefits and offers a sense of autonomy. But sometimes remaining a renter—and roughly 30% of American households fall into this group—makes more sense, especially if you fit one or more of these categories:
http://www.parade.com/articles/editions/2007/edition_05-06-2007/Reasons_to_Rent
And Category #7: You don’t want to tie up a substantial portion of your income servicing a fixed monthly mortgage payment, and would prefer to keep a big chunk of your capital liquid in order to take advantage of business and investment opportunities without going into debt.
At least, that’s my excuse
“2. Housing prices are rising much faster than rents in your area.”
Housing prices are actually falling in my area, and rents are stable. Does that mean that it is better for me to buy a home than to rent?
ME CONFUSED…
It must mean you should become a landlord.
Cody getting bearish now. IMO he is one of the best traders around. He was buying big time in March of ‘03 while everyone else was duct taping their houses (remember that?)
http://thecodyblog.typepad.com/
Plus gotta admit, I think Cody’s a hunk