OCRs’ Jon Lansner On Your Questions
The following is Jon Lansners’ response to your question submitted last week. The bold type are the questions. I summarized each group of questions, and then your remarks are seperated by commas. Any link mistakes are mine, as I made them to articles Mr. Lansner provided.
To Ben’s fine crew … Thanks to all for the hearty debate. I got some ideas for future columns and blog postings, and slants to my work, in between the spitballs tossed about. For example: I’ll not mention price and volume in the headline when I’ll blog weekly market update!
Just so you all know, I own one home. Been an OC property owner since 1986, so I have plenty of equity left to ride out even the worst disaster. And I’ve never owned investment property. (My poison’s stock mutual funds!) So if I’m wrong about the local housing market, it’s because of my own professional failings, not my wallet talking.
I’ll assume these answers won’t quiet all my critics. But I tried my best.
“First, on the question of influence. ‘Having worked at three major newspapers in either advertising or production, every newspaper I‚ve worked for has had a firewall between editorial and advertising…Bill Kovach, Tom Rosensteil and Amy Mitchell wrote that journalists ‘report more cases of advertisers and owners breaching the independence of the newsroom. Advertisers work hard to create the appearance of a wall, but, as outsiders (like us bloggers for instance) can plainly see, and as some insiders have come to accept, there is no wall at all…What happens when the advertiser (or industry group, i.e real estate related) represents a significant percentage of the revenues generated from advertising? Then walking away from the advertiser is not so easy. I’m from San Diego which is bubble central and just a casual scan of the Weekly Reader and the Union Tribune will tell one just how much reliance there is on real estate advertising…As to whether the print media is directly benefiting from the real estate advertising due to the housing bubble, there‚s no doubt that it is. An analogous situation occurred with the stock bubble of the ‚90’s, in which cable stations such as CNBC and CNNfn were among the greatest cheerleaders…I am an OC Register subscriber, and I look forward to Lansner‚s writings on real estate. In my opinion, his musings seem to be 60/40 in favor of the RE industry/market, but he does manage to interject a dose of reality, as if to hint that the tide is changing….Since you rely on RE industry to give you input as to what is going on in the market place, if you were to write an unfavorable article, would these insiders then shun you and no longer give you the information you need to write future articles?‘”
In the 20 years I’ve been at The Register, I’ve never witnessed any story coverage altered to pacify any advertiser. And that’s the way it is at major newspapers. So you may not agree with what I write. I may be dead wring about housing. But it’ll be because I didn’t do my homework, not because of some internal newspaper limits on what I can say because real estate companies buy ads.
Tell me this: Where else have you seen analysis like this? Not the kind of copy a Realtor would like to see in the paper, I’m sure.
I also don’t skew my coverage so that I can curry favor with real estate companies and, thus, they’ll continue to chat with me. There’s too many sources of info and insight for me to worry if my work angers anybody in the business. If real estate types had that kind of control over my work, I’d do something else for a living.
“Many readers want to know his opinion on the over-stretched borrowers/speculators in OC. ‘Jon Lansner‚s recent columns may not mention of the deep trouble lenders are in the OC. Being that many of the top subprime lenders in the OC have been laid off employees and suffered poor forecasts, this issue should be front and center…How will the slowing housing market affect OC employment in the real estate, mortgage lending, and construction areas? How much recent new employment in OC is directly tied to real estate?…I believe that he ran a column a while back that hit thisˆ something like 85%. He also talked about the totally bogus down payment number. Same groupˆif their arm reset today, how much would their rate/payment go up, and could they reasonably afford it?…What percentage of the real estate speculation comes from people who are otherwise employed in the real estate/finance/construction industries? Lansner has done plenty of pieces on OC job growth in these fields. Anecdotally, it seems like everyone who is speculating on OC homes also has a day job that is dependant on continued RE growth….How many ARMs are being reset in OC this year and 2007? What is the average mortgage increase for these ARMs? What part of the OC foreclosure rate is due to people being„ strong-ARMed out of their homes?….How many current homeowners in Orange County have taken equity out of their current home to finance a rental in another state? I personally know of 5 families that have bought in Idaho, Vegas, and Arizona. All cash flow NEGATIVE and I/O loans.’”
Let me give the blog a sample of my work, a chunk of which has raised questions about lending practices. On the growing fad of ‘piggybacks,’ borrowers essentially borrowing their downpayments.
And the silliness known as 40 year loans. On too many home equity loans. Or looking at the challenges facing lenders.
“Others question who is an expert. ‘Here‚s a question: why are the opinions of realtors and realtor association spokespeople so often tagged as being from real estate experts‰ when they have so strong a vested interest in one side of the picture?…Why wouldn’t these people be classified as experts. Maybe I should ask who would be better suited to be cited as an expert. Your local 7/11 clerk….Rather than deeming these people experts, perhaps it would be more appropriate to call them, sources and to ask questions ‘meaningful questions’ instead of letting them get away with making ludicrous and baseless statements which they are never asked to back up. Asking David Lereah if there is a bubble is like asking Ken Lay if there is a problem with Enron stock. It’s a waste of time. And I think that’s what frustrates people when they open their local newspapers and see the latest rise in median price touted in bold numbers on the front page, with no mention of rising inventory or slowing sales or increasing days on the market or layoffs in the mortgage industry…..Why are RE agents (Gary Watts) and CAR reps (Leslie Applegate-Young) constantly being referred to as ‘experts’ and allowed to present their opinions in the Register without ANY counter point arguments or analysis from non-RE interests?‘”
It’s a fair question. And a challenge for all journalists in a number of topics. Insiders do have knowledge, and vested interests. I try to [1] write as often as possible off my own statistical research and [2] vary whom I talk to.
I’m not ashamed that I provide insights into both the bull and bear arguments on housing. And let me repeat a comment I hear from housing bulls: Aren’t the stock and bond types carping about housing conflicted, too: Real estate’s siphoned investor money from their businesses is recent years.
If the home-building chief of this county’s largest developer wants to talk to me, then why not?
Also, I’ll chat with a total housing bear. There are two sides to every debate, and home prices in Orange County are still a debate no matter what I personally believe.
And here’s one column where I did speak to the Realtor’s national president … But not on a topic you’d think ….
“Some readers think Mr. Lansner is a housing bear. ‘Having read most of his articles, I’d have to say he tries to present a very balanced view of real estate market here in orange county. if anything, I’d guess that deep down he‚s a real estate bear and has been for quite awhile….Amen, I‚ve stated that I felt he was a bear back in June of 05…Lansner did publish a bearish article in 2003. He was early like many bears. He also published a re-hash of his bearish call in the last 6 months. He published the yellow light flashing article on tax delinquencies and he also published the article on the sisyphean nature of OC housing in the last 90 days. Why do those stand out? Because they were exceptions to the glorious rising RE stories in the Register (not all written by Lansner). The tone of the glorious rising RE articles tends to be ebbullient in the OCR and the bearish articles are dispassionate passive voice articles. That is the reason for the backlash here….He was a bear in the past, but lately he seems a bit off. Maybe because he predicted too soon and now he‚s being cautious. I wrote on his blog and I mentioned being bought out. I guess he wanted to defend himself and I can understand that….Mr Lansner, in talking with your closest friends, say, over coffee or a cocktail, do you admit you are now a real estate bear or bull? Do you find yourself defending an ongoing real estate price escalation or do you argue for a ‘deflation’ of the obvious real estate bubble?‘”
I’m a bear. (And, for the record, I did say four years ago OC housing had peaked.) Risks are very high. Rewards seem modest, if the bulls do prevail. I’d tell anybody that — even my neighbors who’ve made killings on investment properties. (I tell them to sell!)
Here’s what worries me. A recent hint of trouble, late tax bills. But it’s hard to be a 24/7 ‘crash is HERE’ person when we’ve had nine straight years of home appreciation in The O.C. — the last 6 at double-digits gains.
How else would you have written this gem, a flipper besting investment pro Warren Buffett?
“Some think the Register doesn’t report on housing inventory. ‘I posted on > his blog last Friday, that he used to be pretty balanced and fair but was wondering why there has been a lack of any hint of rising inventories in the OC being written about on his part….Contrary to popular belief, Mr. Lansner has pointed out a couple of times the issue of rising inventories….Here‚s my question: INVENTORY? Doesn‚t it appear to be obvious that Orange County is attempting to Œcash out‚ all at the same time? And doesn‚t that precipitate an oversupply? And wouldn‚t an oversupply cause prices to head one direction? Why doesn‚t the Register talk about INVENTORY? So, is the Median Price‚ really the ONLY indicator of a real estate market? It’s the leaving out of the Inventory Issue that makes people suspect you of being bought by RE. And thanks again for being a good sport.‘”
No one marker dictates this business. Inventory spiked in the summer of 2004. Then after Election Day, the housing market took off again. Inventory is up again; we had a story recently that said so.
One cannot simply overlook the overarching strength of the OC economy. I follow it in great detail with an 18-year database of economic stats. My last quarterly check in.
Jobs are plentiful, and jobs, not rates, drive housing. But we’ll be carefully watching inventory, too …. And — even though nobody said it — late bill payments of all sorts! PS: Column on local credit scores.
“Others want to know JL’s outlook for Orange County real estate. ‘Will you concede that a RE market collapse and credit collapse is plausible whether or not you think it likely?…What data are you seeing that would indicate a growth outlook for OC housing / Southern CA housing, taking into account all of the negative inputs that have surfaced recently….Many individuals on this blog and other sites have often posed the general question: How can a typical family in OC now actually afford to purchase a home…..On your blog dated March 3, you have a headline that states ‘Back Above 600k!’ that to me seemed a bit too enthusiastic. I understand the figures from DataQuick reflect those numbers, > but the overall tone I get from that headline conveys excitement and does a disservice to your readers…..Why don’t median-income-to-home-price or rent-to-home-price ratios matter any more?…..Does it make sense to you that prices will keep going up 15% per year? Can you explain it to us and if you can’t, then why aren’t you asking relevant questions and presenting that perspective to your readers?‘”
There’s a good chance things will get ugly and affordability is a key component. My own math has the typical household income still generating a 40% debt-to-income level if your buy the median price CONDO! That’s outrageous.
My guess for home prices in The OC for 2006 is about 0%. I get this from my do-it-yourself home-price forecaster.
Again, thanks to all for the spirited debate!
My thanks to Mr. Lansner and all the readers who took time to contribute. I am sure there are errors, but emailing this kind of material back and forth garbles some spelling, etc.
Kudos to Mr. Lansner - and for his good humour in digging out the pure gold nuggets of insight available on this website among the occassional ’spitball’.
FWIW, I haven’t seen much evidence that the press is on the payroll of the industry. I think that Realtors get quoted so much because they’re easy ‘go-to’ guys on this question. Getting serious professors to return phone calls is likely a lot harder than calling up the local Realty Association president who would just *love* to get his views in print.
In Vancouver, the main local paper has actually been spinning things remarkably negative of late - even though objectively the market is still very hot here. See some examples here
Yes. NAR puts out daily/weekly press releases that fill white space. I was in the new biz once. Reporters are human too and need to fill space everyday. Maybe these blogs will give people like Mr. Lansing another reliable, readily available source. For this reason, It’s important that all Topics posted are verified as best as we can.
Sorry, about the butcher of Mr. Lansner’s name
Amen! And I do appreciate Mr. Lansner’s citations on his own work - they were very informative — but I hope he’ll take the blinders off about the news biz someday (even though he may never be able to publicly). I’ve heard this Blanche Dubois “why I never in all my years” stuff from journalists before. Mr. Lansner’s newspaper isnt’ so big that he can’t flip through the features pages (all about pushing folks to buy what advertisers are selling), automotive section (all about selling cars), fashion section (need I say more) or any other “special” section bought by ads to understand that, yeah, the biz licks the hand that feeds it. Why else dya think publications like Consumer Reports don’t take ads? You might be lucky now Mr. Lansner, but you know they’ve come for your colleagues, and they may very well come for you too.
The Reno Gazette Journal sits solidly in the lap of the RE industry in N. Nevada/Tahoe. Reading their articles, it feels as if we are perpetually living in 2004..
Ben this is almost impossible to read in the current format. We need the questions in bold and answers in normal type font.
Thanks
Thanks for the suggestion, I changed it.
Please let Mr. Lasner know that I will continue to be a Register subscriber due to his objective reporting. At least he is attempting to show BOTH sides of the housing market sitaution.
I appreciate his column so much more than any that the LA Times puts out and which refuses to put any negative story / reporting about the housing bubble on the front page of the Business Section.
I am glad we have been able to get through to discuss these points with him. Hopefully as the negative news continues to roll out like we have been seeing, he will continue to publish it. He should have plenty to write about in the coming months and years!!!!
What kind of BS is this.
Someone claims the Earth is flat somebody else claims it is round.
“Views on Earth’s shape differ”
Bullshit, there are not “two sides to every story” sometimes there is only objective fact and truth.
The current housing market is completely devoid of any sanity.
“Clap louder” is not one side of some objective opinion somebody can hold.
Wish in one hand and crap in another and see which one fills up first.
Any freaking “objective” journalist would see what all of us “laymen” can plainly see…the housing market has become completely unhinged from ANY fundametal valuation and is predictably destined for a fall.
Sure, but “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solevent.” Pontificating about an out of whack market isn’t nearly as valuable as correcly predicting when it will revert to a normal market.
That is kinda the point—they aint pontificating about an out of whack market. What they ARE doing is saying:
“Industry experts say sunshine and peppermints for everybody, Bloggers say doom and gloom you decide”
It is lazy reporting, I will just get information from 2 people who disagree and call it a day.
Sometimes the layout people (NOT the authors) get it wrong. Last week, the Eureka Times Standard had this headline: “Real estate prices climb higher, fewer sales reported.” Of course, the article actually said “The January 2006 median home price countywide was $319,900, which is down slightly from the previous month’s median home price of $339,000.”
When I contacted the author, she said: “…I winced when I read the headline on my story. I do not write them.”
I believe her, but it seems this rising price mythology has grown such that people don’t even process the words in front of them!
Yep, the other one I’ve noticed quite a lot in the last couple of months is ‘price appreciation goes flat, or goes negative’.
And I think you went a bit soft on the reporter there. IMHO $319,900 is not down slightly from $339,000.
Headlines are practically never written by the reporter of the story; they’re written by editors or layout folks to fit the column-inches available.
Call them out when they’re absurd by all means — but don’t blame the reporter; contact the section editor.
Why don’t the journalists interview some of us as a source? I can tell you I am pretty qualified as a housing bear. I did my MBA thesis on the housing market, and have done extensive research on the topic. I work in the construction industry. I talk to the owners of the some top construction companies on a fairly regular basis.
Why don’t they interview Ben on a regular basis?
They should do a weekly interview with us just to get a pulse on what we are seeing around the country.
It would make great reporting.
By virtue of the fact that Lanser approached Ben with this idea, I would be willing to bet that Ben will start to get more interviews on a regular basis.
Let me point out to all of you that journalists can freely read and gleen material from here without any formal interview process. I can say that a number of ideas that I first saw posted here appeared later on in the mainstream press without attribution…
Yep. And this will happen more and more, hence the power of these blogs, and hence why Ben (at least my guess) spends so much time on this initiative.
Very respectable response. One that I forgot to ask…
When can the bubble be called a bubble. The 89-90 LA bubble (and I’m calling it a bubble) wasn’t marked by a plunge. But, after the bubble finally stopped deflating 40% was taken out of the market. Can it be called a bubble after a 5% YoY decline? 10%? WHAT???
A bubble exists when the price of an investment is grossly inflated over that of its real earning potential. In the case of housing, it is evident from the extreme dissasociation between prices and rents.
The idea that a bubble can only be identified after it popped is erroneous, if not deliberately misleading…as recently demonstrated by RE insiders making such spurious claims.
Bingo Beta…..
I don’t dispute this for a second, although I would put some premium on own over rent beyond the after tax cost… perhaps, 5%-10% of the 30yr fixed payment.
What I want to know is when does an objective RE journalist or better yet, the NAR acknowledge a bubble exists.
Unfortunately, Realtors have a good defense: The existence of a bubble can’t be proven until it pops.
I don’t think so.
A bubble can be identified. The point at which stupid people stop piling $$$$$$ on top of a bubble and it ultimately pops can’t be identified until a year and 10% YoY decline occurs.
Yes, good responses. Sounds like he is also looking at late pay data on these mortgages, and if he can get an early rather than late heads up on them, will be key journalism on this topic. I still think more attention needs to be paid to the key lenders in OC and if they really start tightening lending standards, will be another big story.
Dear Mr. Lansner,
Thanks for going toe-to-toe with the bubble-bloggers! I am wondering if you see the economic implications of the following statement:
“My guess for home prices in The OC for 2006 is about 0%. I get this from my do-it-yourself home-price forecaster.”
Such a rapid drop in the appreciation rate will force a major downward revision in expectations for future price gains. If your prediction comes to pass, then this factor in isolation would be enough to lead to a drop in demand due to the vanishing speculation premium (the extra people were willing to pay for unaffordable housing in order to capture anticipated capital gains). 0% appreciation this year will presage next year’s 10% (or more) drop in price, IMNHO.
GS,
I think he knows that, but cannot say that just yet. The implication you make is too apparent to anyone with a brain and I suspect that his 0% forecast is actually a veiled implication of what you’re talking about.
Good point. People are willing to pay a premium to get into an investment appreciating at 15% per year. At 0%, the magic is gone; it simply becomes just a really overpriced home.
0% appreciation will also lead to other changes. The sense of urgency from the “buy now or be priced out forever” crowd will be gone. Refinancing will also become more difficult, leading to “motivated” sellers and increased foreclosures. Option-ARMs will no longer be an option as banks will only lend in an environment of appreciation. A flat market will also lead to job losses in RE, lending and construction. Putting further pressure on RE.
In reality, a flat market just doesn’t seem all that plausible in many hot markets. Many local economies have become dependant on double digit appreciation. Anything less just won’t work.
To me its a bubble if it’s declining by 10% or more for more than one year in a row .
But the handwriting is already on the wall; this year’s 0% appreciation directly causes next years 10%+ drop, as seller expectations move from the shock phase to the panic phase…
I agree
Wait, are you telling me that ANYONE here believes prices on Jan 1st, 2007 will be roughly the same as Jan 1st, 2006!?
I’m certainly no expert, but my gut is screaming otherwise.
I think Jan 1,2007 will be the first year of the 10% or more decline
Correction …Jan.1,2007 will show that 2006 went down by 10% or more .
And it will show up in the trickle of homes that were priced low enough to sell (at least for places like SD and PHX where inventory crashed)…
By definition, a bubble exists when the price of a median house in Riverside county is in the neighborhood of $500,000.00. or HALF A MILLION DOLLARS.
Amen to that!!
I think Lanser is reaching out to this blog because he’s trying to make sure that he is on the right side of this issue after it’s substantially played out. Would there not be an incentive for JL to be on the right side of history if he expects to maintain credibility in the future? If the bubble bursts in a manner even remotely similar to what most on this site surmise, then most “permabull” journalists would have a severe lack of credibility for the next several years.
This is one the major reasons why I think that the correction is inevitable. The media will have to pick a side at some point and play it as much as they can. If too much evidence points to correction, then the mass media will have no choice but to report it and further drive the herd psychology in the downward direction.
Interesting to read about the late tax bills. I was just thinking about this this morning. I’m a notary and have noticed a HUGE increase in the number of folks not impounding for taxes. 3 yrs ago about 60% or so of the borrowers I signed impounded, I can’t think of ANY that I have signed in the last 6 months that have had impounds. The majority of first time buyers I’m signing are putting VERY little down if any. How are they expecting to save for their taxes if they couldn’t save for a down payment??? Especially when their mortgage payment is far more than their rent??
Some will pay it with there Tax refund after deduction the 40% of there gross that they have been paying…
I am not sure the late tax bills will help us understand whats going on too much…At least in my county, it take 5 years of non-payment of taxes for the county to forclose…
Right, while forclosure does take a number of years, I think this just helps illustrate the point that buyers are overextending themselves. Many are looking only at what their I/O payment will be for the next 2 or 5 or however long thier rate is fixed for. They are not looking at the big picture. They just need to hurry up and buy before they “waste” any more money on rent and get priced out of the market for good.
Oh don’t tell me the Lenders arent impounding for taxes on low down loans ….Please …Now were going to have a bunch of tax sales
Oh no worst …..Because people know it takes 5 years on a tax lein to sell …. they are using it as additional credit source . I forget what the late penalty interest is .
YUP…..
the tax penatlty in ca is 10% after 1 day late and then 1.5% per month after that.
Why is Orange County referred to by some as The OC? Is it the same extention of silliness that spawned The Donald, etc. Putting people and places on a phony pedastle for whatever reason.
When I lived in the LA area years ago, Orange County was kind of the butt of jokes because of the ultra-conservatives there: the Freedom Newspaper chain, etc. Has it changed any, or just gotten bigger?
Well, I dont know about you guys but Im pretty sure the term ‘The OC’, came from that tv show.
Orange County or ‘OC’ is what it I have always known it as. And, I am quite sure that anyone who grew up there would not refer to it as ‘The OC’. I laugh at people when the ‘The’ part is added b/c it sounds so foolish. I hear it a lot here in LA.
JF
Maybe because The Five and The Fifteen (SoCal freeways) both run through it
The Five and The Fifteen also run through The SD, though, too!
I hate to be a stickler but the 15 runs from south to north through San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino Counties, not Orange…
Would you prefer a revival of “behind the Orange Curtain?”
No no no! It’s going to be th ORANGE CRUSH when we see 50% declines and OC goes BK… AGAIN!
Re: general opinion of OC.
Five words for you……Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
It’s the TV show “The OC”…most people from SoCal use it in jest, mostly because it’s so silly to call it that, and partly as a cultural reference (again, because of the TV show).
HOWEVER, the San Fernando Valley *is* usually called “The Valley”, so there is some precedent.
Valley girl, she’s a valley girl…
That should be “most people from SoCal that actually use that term use it in jest”.
“http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=2152″
Go to this article on Howe Street from earlier today, the quote Ben Jones as he converses with another blog participant on the deluge of vacant and overpriced homes in Phoenix.
P.S. I dont know who remembers the last housing bust in the early 90’s but I remeber reading in Phoenix how some people were just walking away from thier homes.
Somehow I have a feeling that my landlady will be calling me with an offer to sell at a discount very soon.
her purchase price is 466K
i rent for 1850
Currently one similar home sold for 460k in Nov
There are 4 listed now 485K- 475K. with competitive reduction between two condos last friday. it is small- 3K. but still.
The land lady also holds realtor license!
location newbury park- Ventura county-CA
Hold out , its going down more .
Anybody that buys directly from a seller should be able to get a even greater discount because the seller is saving on the marketing fees.
Yes sir reee Wizard……
a flipper trading on Buffet’s fame and ekeing out a bit more of a gain is brilliant on Warren’s part. Leave some crumbs for someone else to make and they get the lawsuit risk of a disgruntled and underwater buyer.
I grew up in Orange and Tustin. “The OC” is just some marketing schlock to make it sound glamorous. Wasn’t the John Birch Society founded there as well?
“http://overvalued.blogspot.com/”
Check out this blog on over priced real estate. Great for comic relief. Be sure to check out the 610 square foot Malibu property for 11,000,000.00-like18K+ per square foot-comedy gold!
Pocket pennies to Larry Elison…..
1171 RAMONA DR, Newbury Park, CA 91320** –
Price Reduced: 03/12/06 — $484,500 to $472,500
1211 RAMONA DR, Newbury Park, CA 91320**
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 — $490,000 to $475,000
These are two in a race, price sold depends on staying capacity of the owners or the greater fool who rushes to buy.
That will set the future comps for homes coming to list in summer!
He ‘had me’ at 0%.
Okay, Jonathan, you’ve redeemed yourself.
Predicting 0% appreciation in ‘06 is exactly what I see, too.
As long as you keep an ‘eye’ on Inventory, I’ll be nice.
I really do, however, wish you could nudge the guys over at Dataquick into reporting inventory numbers.
How hard would it be?
As it is, we have to go to http://www.ocrealestatefinder.com, or http://www.firstteam.com, or http://www.ziprealty.com for inventory- and of course, each site has different numbers.
If you talk to John Karevoll, can you tell him we asked if he could add inventory- with a chart?
If you can swing that- you’ll be aces in my book.
Let us know, okay?
0% appreciation for 2006 is a really good start…
john karevoll lives in running springs. he should be home now they had a few feet of snow this weekend and the 330 is closed for repairs. you can reach him at 909-867-9534 when you talk to him ask him about inventory.
Given that median prices have already come down a bit since August/September, 0% appreciation in ‘06 will mean negative YOY numbers from June onwards.
We will see YoY declines in Jul/Aug to the tune of 10%. Then the BUBBLE HAS BURST MEDIA FRENZY WITH HARD DATA BEGINS!!!
i’ve lived and worked in orange county most of my life and the current market doesn’t make sense, but the numbers show that the average/mean price of resale properties (per MLS)is still increasing:
12/1/05 to 12/31/05 $707,806 / 2,495 sales
1/1/06 to 1/31/06 $726,832 / 1,819 sales
2/1/06 to 2/28/06 $726,449 / 1,821 sales
3/1/06 to 3/13/06 $746,268 / 625 sales
go figure!!
I think I know whats happening …Looking back at the area I moved from in 2005 I see that they are listing 2000 to 2300 sq foot houses between $600,000 and $750,000. Last year same square footage went for say $700.000. to $900.000. People are seeing this as a bargin and buying ,but, its really a price reduction. It would make the median price go up .
PW
I think it makes sense.
This how it worked last bust in late 80s/early 90s.
Sales were slow , prices still raising.
once sales reaches the nadir, prices start coming down. sales will not pickup much however.
I’ve posted LAtimes headlines on this blog some time ago. check them out.
i think i know one of the reasons prices still go up.. in my town the inventory has gone from 1100 listings to 1600 listings in the last 6 months. i have been waiting to buy like lots of other people. i now have 500 more listings to choose from. most people buy in a price range, like i want to spend 200,00 for a new home. there are many homes here that are listed for 200,00 that i would not live in so if some one has a house that was listed for 250,000 and with so many listings he lowers his price to 200,000 i would buy it. there would be lower sales numbers but the quality of homes sold would be much better than before. so that sale would raise the avg price here . what happens the homes that dont lower there price never get sold and thats not reflected in the avg price.
That is what I was saying but you said it so much better
This is the exact reason that the median and mean statistics lie.
In a hot market any POS will sell, in a down market only the creampuffs sell.
This makes the statistics compare overvalued POS to undervalued nice homes as the market turns from bad to good.
In 89′ the homes lost to foreclosure sold in the mid 90’s for 50% discounts. The same homes, not statistical guesses.
as a journalist, i know that no one from advertising would overtly influence what I wriote. but there is pressure of all kinds placed on journalists. its part of the job to resist it.
http://www.dcbubble.blogspot.com
It’s a fair question. And a challenge for all journalists in a number of topics. Insiders do have knowledge, and vested interests. I try to [1] write as often as possible off my own statistical research and [2] vary whom I talk to.
I’m not ashamed that I provide insights into both the bull and bear arguments on housing. And let me repeat a comment I hear from housing bulls: Aren’t the stock and bond types carping about housing conflicted, too: Real estate’s siphoned investor money from their businesses is recent years.
If the home-building chief of this county’s largest developer wants to talk to me, then why not?
Also, I’ll chat with a total housing bear. There are two sides to every debate, and home prices in Orange County are still a debate no matter what I personally believe.
And here’s one column where I did speak to the Realtor’s national president … But not on a topic you’d think ….
This is by far the question that I was looking forward to the most. I must say that I found the answer rather lacking in substance and explanation.
Yes, Mr. Lansner, it is a good question. It would have been helpful if you had replied with a good answer.
So it’s a challenge. No one said due diligence in journalism was going to be easy. Is it that hard to find an alternative viewpoint on ANY issue? And if the home-building chief or the president of the NAR wants to talk to you, do you suppose there is a reason? I’ll bet it’s not to objectively discuss their industries for the benefit of your readers’ knowledge, but rather to foster a positive outlook for consumers to get or keep them spending. Which is understandable, they’re businessmen. And it’s understandable that you would talk to them, they are intimately familiar with their respected markets. But by not providing your readers with an unbiased opinion to balance the claims by these “experts”, you have done nothing but give them free advertising and the forum to paint their industries in the light of their choosing at the expense of a well informed public. And make no mistake about the importance of the market opinions and forecasts that these “experts” make. It is from them, through your paper that helps to guide the average american in one of the biggest financial decisions they will ever make. And “varying who you talk to” is not a solution. You could line up just about every Realtor in the state and ask them about the health and future of real estate and get variations of the same positive answer. Furthermore, to trot out an example of your giving coverage to bears on this issue does not impress me, in light of the overwhelming, unchallenged one sided pro real estate comments that predominate in ALL media including yours.
Im clapping
Sorry for copying from an earlier topic, Mr. VA,
Comment by John in VA
2006-03-13 18:11:39
Believing the NAR’s assessment of the housing market is like believing the tobacco industry’s assessment of the health effects of cigarette smoking.
5 Active for sale homes and the mortgage balance the sellers are carrying
Assumptions:
1st TD: 5%, 30 yrs
2nd TD 6%, 20 yrs
$1k monthly for Tax & Ins, etc
Interest Only is approx 70% of PITI
Date Bought Bought For 1st 2nd Total PITI 70%
3/19/2004 $685,000 $616,500 $238,500 $855,000 $6,018 $4,213
1/7/2005 $776,500 $620,928 $150,000 $770,928 $5,408 $3,786
6/30/2005 $730,000 $584,000 $146,000 $730,000 $5,181 $3,627
2/10/2006 $685,000 $548,000 $158,000 $706,000 $5,074 $3,552
10/25/2005 $630,000 $504,000 $504,000 $3,706 $2,594
Dear Mr. Lansner,
Thank you for jumping in and engaging with us. My respect for you has increased and I hope you found us not too terribly critical. It is an important aspect of this discourse to create a bridge between the blog and print journalism realms. And my thanks to Ben for providing the opportunity and handling the details of this exchange.
Oh please….Seriously, no offense to anyone, and I say this with all due respect, but some of you are acting like groupies at a rock concert. Oooh a journalist from a big city paper talked to us bloggers! I thought the whole idea was to ask this guy important and potentially tough questions about the media’s role in all this and the bubble in general not to read links to his articles that show he did his job once in a while. After reading his answers, I gotta tell ya, I don’t feel particularly enlightened in the least. Maybe I missed the point…
I thought about what you wrote, and what immediately came to mind is what was going on one year ago. In mid March 2005 this blog just started to get a few hits, up to 500 a day. My point is this is almost like a political issue; you have to expect change to occur slowly; to me it seems to be changing faster than we could have ever asked for.
I didn’t think I would get an email from a RE writer, ever, wanting to hash out issues. I wish JL had answered some questions in more detail. But the way I see it, this is an incremental public-opinion battle, with economic fundamentals on our side: and we gained a bit of ground today. Plus the vacant home article got picked up by Howe Street, so on we go.
this is posted down thread as well to Auction…
Ben, I agree with your point that the attention that this blog has received as of late is a great step in the right direction. And please don’t misunderstand me, I’m thrilled that JL was engaged here. I believe that as events start to unfold as we here have predicted, there will be even more attention from the mainstream media. More good stuff.
However, I would like to say that IMO any previous lack of attention from the mainstream media was in part due to the publics’ lack of desire or willingness to read about it. Simply put, it wouldn’t sell as many papers. In the context of last year, you and this blog were way out in front on this issue. But the prevailing attitude amongst the readership and public at large was housing fever and YOY gains…positives. To write of a potential housing bubble crash last summer would most likely befall ridicule or a deaf ear.
What do we gravitate to? Do you tune into Rush Limbaugh or Al Frankin? In my opinion, you seek out that which confirms your beliefs. It’s Human nature. Now that the housing bubble is on everyone’s minds and lips, it now behooves reporters to give it more play. In the news business, it’s called a ‘peg’, meaning something we can now hang a story on. Give the readers what they want and all that. The fact that the scale is starting to tip to the bears, now lends credence to it’s coverage. Now all of a sudden, people do want to read about it. Not to bolster their bullish attitude as before, but to ascertain the reality of their greatest fears. And now, that sells papers. IMO, JL came here partly because the bubble is in play now and his readers know it and they want to read about it. So I sincerely thank him for his time, but I also think that his time was well spent as well.
So in the subtext of media attention, I love the fact that this debate occurred. In the context of actual substance, this Q&A in and of itself was a bit light in the meat and potatoes department for me. Which is where my comment arose from.
In other words, I kept reading everyone thanking JL for doing this, which is fine and I agree, but I thought he was posed several well thought out, intelligent, pertinent questions, and IMO he just kept hitting cheese-puffs back at us.
Hi Ben,
I know what you mean about having unexpected ‘influence’. I’m amazed by who visits my site and the emails I’ve had from some top players in our local market. Some have been dismissive, but others have been surprisingly supportive.
The readership just keeps growing and growing and growing . .. .
Good to see reporters engaging the blogasphere directly. more should do this. bloggers are going to be (and already are) good watchdogs. we keep the papers honest. create a center of gravity to talk about and shed light on mistakes and bad judgments. I think the guy stood up well in the dock, but I still think it’s a bad idea to parade the realtor’s latest cheesy sales pitch as the “expert opinion” week after week. Isn’t it pretty damn obvious that the industry is programmed to say whatever seems to make the most sense to both buyers and sellers in any given week, to maximize the chances of closing transactions between them?
If the National Association of Car Salespeople ,( if there is one), made statements along the same line the NAR does the masses would see it for what it is , SELF SERVING STATEMENTS .
“Blogging
Outreach and outrage
Mar 9th 2006
From The Economist print edition
JOURNALISM is like making beer. Or so Glenn Reynolds says in his engaging new book. Without formal training and using cheap equipment, almost anyone can do it. The quality may be variable, but the best home-brews are tastier than the stuff you see advertised during the Super Bowl. This is because big brewers, particularly in America, have long aimed to reach the largest market by pushing bland brands that offend no one. The rise of home-brewing, however, has forced them to create “micro-brews” that actually taste of something. In the same way, argues Mr Reynolds, bloggers—individuals who publish their thoughts on the internet—have shaken up the mainstream media (or MSM, in blogger parlance).”
http://economist.com/books/displayStory.cfm?story_id=5601300
Big kudos to Lansner for engaging this forum, and reader criticism.
An addendum to my previous comments…
Going from 23% appreciation in 2005 to 0% appreciation in 2006…
Are we arguing about semantics, here?
I mean, is going from 23 to 0 a ‘crash’, or a ‘correction’, or a ’soft landing’?
And-
Addendum Number 2…
If that is the case, as most of us agree it will be…
…won’t that ’soft crash landing correction’ have an effect on- ding-
- JOBS?
What the heck ELSE do people do in Orange County BESIDES Real Estate?
Not much, from what I’ve seen.
From looking at the Office of Federal Housing Oversight yearly appreciation numbers ( in graph form), where California’s real estate history appears to be a roller coaster at Six Flags…
…I’d say a 23% to 0% appreciation change looks a lot like- DING-
…a coming ‘crash’.
Or maybe it’s a ’slightly lesser than soft landing’?
Richard Russell is a very wise man, IMHO. He has written the Dow Theory Letter since 1958. This is what he said today:
“Front page story in Saturday’s WSJ (Mar.11). “Millions Are Facing Monthly Squeeze On House Payments. Many Adjustable-Rate Loans, Popular in Recent Years, Will Soon Be Reset Higher.”
My father was in real estate all his life, which allowed me to see the good and the bad side of real estate. I grew up During the Great Depression. During the 1930s many condo owners were hit by the bad times. Consider this — you buy a condo in a building with nine other condo-owners. Hard times hit, and three of the condo owners can’t make their payments. They leave, and the landlord can’t sell those three condos. One finally sells at a frighteningly reduced price, lowering the value of all the other condos in the compound. Two months later the landlord goes bust, and two other condo owners leave. The cost of upkeep rises dramatically, and suddenly the condo that you bought is worth half of what you paid for it. And you’re upkeep costs again rises sharply. Now you’re thinking that it’s far cheaper to rent. You make plans to leave, but you’re liable.
Much of the same kind of disasters occurred to co-op owners during the ’30s. This is why it’s now so tough to be accepted in a coop building in NYC and other places. The other co-op owners know their history, and they’re playing it very safe. Consequently, if you want to buy a co-op you have to face a tenant’s committee. They want to know your assets and your earning power and what business you’re in. In other words, they don’t want people who are candidates for bankruptcy in the next recession. They want people with assets who will sail through hard times. And if you know your history, you can’t blame them.
Note — close to $1 trillion in adjustable rate mortgages will be reset over the next one or two years. Remember a few years ago when Greenspan suggested that people who wanted homes might think of adjustable rate mortgages. Thanks, Alan. Bring short rates down to 1 percent and allow millions of people to buy homes. Then ratchet rates up to 4.5% and higher as these same poor slobs get squeezed. Meanwhile, Alan, you’re out on the speech trail or writing a book. Thanks Alan, you’re a national treasure. And Bernanke thanks you too.”
***********************************************************************************************************
How many times are we going to see repeated what Russell describes here? How many condo projects are going to experience the same thing as occurred during the Depression?
What will happen in Miami, for instance, where the condo overbuild is extreme? It utterly boggles the mind to think how this is going to turn out!
Nice find, dawnal.
A lot of authoritative figures have been drawing parallels to the runup to the Great Depression. I’d guess there’s only a small chance that it will get that bad, but monetary policy has been so reckless that it’s going to take awhile for the imbalances to work themselves out of the system. The pain is just beginning… it’s much like the beginning of a bad case of the flu, where you know you’re going to be terribly sick, but just feeling a mild chill at the moment.
This is the Holy Grail of Bubbletopia. Ben you need to add a link to America’s Overvalued Real Estate. There you can learn about a 375-square-foot (not a typo) house on a non-descript piece of SoCal dirt. They want $389,000.
maybe its 375 SF. but if its in a great locale thats all that matters.
location, location, location is the first rule of real estate
not size, size, size
http://www.dcbubble.blogspot.com
Location? It’s a tiny stamp of dirt in a no-name suburb!
BTW, if I read “Honey, stop the car!” in a listing one more time I will throw up.
First rule of Real Estate …. Take the overpriced listing ….maybe a fool will come along, or, maybe the seller will reduce later .
A closet in a great location. LOL.
Why the US is on her way to become a third world country, unless the trend reported on CNN: “The Poor Get Richer” is reversed. More and more high-skill jobs are outsourced, so there is a decreasing need for college graduates, while jobs that don’t require college degrees are here to stay so they actually pay better now:
Ben Jones said…
“I thought about what you wrote, and what immediately came to mind is what was going on one year ago. In mid March 2005 this blog just started to get a few hits, up to 500 a day. My point is this is almost like a political issue; you have to expect change to occur slowly; to me it seems to be changing faster than we could have ever asked for.
I didn’t think I would get an email from a RE writer, ever, wanting to hash out issues. I wish JL had answered some questions in more detail. But the way I see it, this is an incremental public-opinion battle, with economic fundamentals on our side: and we gained a bit of ground today. Plus the vacant home article got picked up by Howe Street, so on we go.”
I agree completely.
Rainman18…
You’re obviously impassioned. And you’re connected. You’ve got waaaay more going for you than even you know.
HOWEVER…
We’re up against a multi-million dollar industry here.
They aren’t going to go easy.
They’ve got every mass communication tool known to man.
We’ve got-
Ben Jones’ Blog.
I’m not belittling that.
The very fact that the NAR is beginning to change its tune- BECAUSE OF US- and the very fact that Jonathan Lansner would like to talk to us-
This means we are making progress.
It could be that many people in the mass media agree with us, but haven’t had the facts to back up their ‘inklings’.
It could be that Jonathan pretty much agrees with us, but got burned by calling the end of the bubble early- before the lending industry came up with ’stated income’ loans.
Whatever the case, we ARE making progress.
David Lereah isn’t lying anymore.
His boss, Thomas Stevens, has identified us as the reason people aren’t buying.
What are the odds that ALL of these people come to Ben’s blog?
We’ve been making A LOT of noise.
Rainman18- so have you.
One of the greatest artists of all-time, Mr. Peter Gabriel, was once asked-
“Why is it, exactly, that you seem to embrace so much of the music of other cultures? Are you attempting to make money off of them?”
Peter Gabriel said…
“It’s not about making money. I have plenty of money. It’s about learning. When I listen to something I haven’t heard before, I learn. At first, it’s difficult listening. Later, it becomes intriguing. After that, I become obsessed, and I want to duplicate it. Many stages later, I feel the urge to create again, and the music that taught me so much before has changed me. Changed me so much that now I have created something new. Something that has come from what I am, and have been, as well as what I’ve learned. What I’ve learned that initially, surprised me.”
Rainman18…
Keep surprising people.
But know this…it takes time for your influence to take hold.
From the posts you’ve written, I can tell you this- people who work around you (reporters, editors, producers, assignment editors) probably ACT LIKE you aren’t having an impact on them.
They’re lying.
Having Jonathan Lansner come here to Ben’s blog is the same thing.
You- and we- are making an impact.
Just like with Peter Gabriel…
…he hears the inspirational sound…
…he denies it because it seems odd…
…but later, it sets in…
…and soon…
He comes here because he realized we’re not nuts.
What we are saying makes sense.
When the president of the NAR says people are waiting to buy homes because of ‘fears’ of a housing bubble- YOU’VE MADE PROGRESS.
When the leading Real Estate columnist of the leading Real Estate county in the WORLD comes to your blog- YOU’VE MADE PROGRESS.
Don’t be impatient.
You’re impact, our impact- is making waves, my friend.
INVITE PEOPLE INTO THE BOAT.
We’ve got plenty of room here, for every race, creed, sexual persuasion, age, sex, religion, and economic class.
INVITE PEOPLE INTO THE BOAT.
All we have is a blog.
And word of mouth.
What do they have?
And how far have we come?
Think about it.
Patience, my friend.
This is like David slaying Goliath…
…with a really, really f’d up sling.
One step at a time.
Auction,
Thank you for your kind words…you are the master of the doublespace! : )
Ben, I agree with your point that the attention that this blog has received as of late is a great step in the right direction. And please don’t misunderstand me, I’m thrilled that JL was engaged here. I believe that as events start to unfold as we here have predicted, there will be even more attention from the mainstream media. More good stuff.
However, I would like to say that IMO any previous lack of attention from the mainstream media was in part due to the publics’ lack of desire or willingness to read about it. Simply put, it wouldn’t sell as many papers. In the context of last year, you and this blog were way out in front on this issue. But the prevailing attitude amongst the readership and public at large was housing fever and YOY gains…positives. To write of a potential housing bubble crash last summer would most likely befall ridicule or a deaf ear.
What do we gravitate to? Do you tune into Rush Limbaugh or Al Frankin? In my opinion, you seek out that which confirms your beliefs. It’s Human nature. Now that the housing bubble is on everyone’s minds and lips, it now behooves reporters to give it more play. In the news business, it’s called a ‘peg’, meaning something we can now hang a story on. Give the readers what they want and all that. The fact that the scale is starting to tip to the bears, now lends credence to it’s coverage. Now all of a sudden, people do want to read about it. Not to bolster their bullish attitude as before, but to ascertain the reality of their greatest fears. And now, that sells papers. IMO, JL came here partly because the bubble is in play now and his readers know it and they want to read about it. So I sincerely thank him for his time, but I also think that his time was well spent as well.
So in the subtext of media attention, I love the fact that this debate occurred. In the context of actual substance, this Q&A in and of itself was a bit light in the meat and potatoes department for me. Which is where my comment arose from.
In other words, I kept reading everyone thanking JL for doing this, which is fine, but I thought he was posed several well thought out, intelligent, pertinent questions, and IMO he just kept hitting cheese-puffs back at us.
This is a wonderful site with a good concentration of data. All of this amounts to observations, anecdotal data that will help identify the bubble and provide some comfort to those that recognize it. A good and necessary balance to the NAR and the powerful RE complex.
But that’s it. This site isn’t going to influence the direction of the housing market or the economy. It’s all about $$$$ flow and availability. When the $$$$ supply gets tighter, interest rates get to the point that it’s impossible to perpetuate the bubble it’ll burst, or, more likely, deflate.
The question that remains to be answered is whether this bubble has taken so much out of the economy this time that it takes years or decades to crawl out. International economical dynamics ARE different this time around. The thing this country has in its favor is its military supremacy… that is something that needs to be preserved above all. Hopefully the rest can work itself out… the trade imbalance and account deficit.
The bears may get what they have been calling for all along, and it might be very ugly…
This thread is starting to sound like a meeting of the People’s Temple. Jim Jones died back then….or did he?
I enjoy the blog, am better informed because of it and Ben’s efforts are greatly appreicated. R/E booms followed by busts have occurred forever, without blogs/media to help or hurt them along. Market forces (interest rates, bank reserve policies, gobal tightening/easing policies, incomes etc.) are the true drivers behind the steering wheel. Media/blogs may have some peripheral influence. It can only benefit the blog to keep our “place” in all of this in perspective.
Or Heaven’s Gate? (That was a nice home out in Rancho Santa Fe where they done themselves in …)
Completely forgot about that. Too funny.
He’s still calling it “The OC.” No self-respecting OC resident calls it “THE OC.” Therefore, he’s suspect.
Rainman18…
Double spacing works well with people that have a hard time reading 12 point on a really, really small computer screen. That’s why I do it.
I’ve worked in the news business, too.
For more than ten years, I was an Avid Editor, a Producer, an on-air televison journalist, and a Videographer.
I can’t tell you where I work now, because I’d have 29,000 people coming to see me, asking me questions. That would definately disrupt my work environment.
But I can tell you this…
…it takes people about 20 to 30 times hearing a ‘commercial’ before they can even BEGIN to identify a restaurant. Or a loan company. Or a political candidate. Or a carwash.
Even then, they wonder whether it’s a ‘mom and pop’ or a fully established business.
In other words, repetition is king.
Like say, your assignment editor tells you to go shoot a story in LA about the possible abduction of a child…
You go get the batteries, which are hopefully, charged.
You go tell the reporter, who hopefully, is done putting on his/her makeup.
You go look for new tapes, which have hopefully been replenished.
You go find the address, if you can actually get the reporters/anchors/assignment editors OFF their computers.
And on the way…
…you pass 75 For Sale signs.
You say to the reporter, “Gosh, isn’t it weird that all those For Sale signs are over there? How many have we passed already? Man, this is odd. Do you guys see anything strange going on here?”
Everyone looks at you, and continues talking about the girl or guy they met at the bar last night, and how drunk they got.
YOU think- ‘they haven’t heard me.’
I say- they have.
Just keep doing it.
Story after story.
Point out the obvious.
Remember how long it takes for an idea to get into the public mind.
We have words.
They have ‘campaigns’.
Thomas Stevens said the words ‘housing bubble’ today, my friend.
Would he have said those words five months ago?
Repetition, and patience, are king.
The whole freakin’ world of economics is lurking on Ben Jones’ blog now.
And you, my friend, have been here a long, long time.
INVITE THEM INTO THE BOAT.
I met my wife in the Huntington Beach.
We bought our first house in the Fountain Valley.
First two kids born in the OC.
Third born in the Santa Monica.
Once owned a house in the San Clemente.
OK, seriously:
I’m short a boatload of HB stocks since last July and just barely green on the position. (Troll Bros. rolled over first and I used those profits to short more CTX.) I don’t expect that simply because I determined that HB stocks will decline that it must happen immediatly. But happen it will.
I will cover none of my 5 HBs sold short until at least 2 have filed bankruptcy.
Most people have heard of Levittown but the company that started it (the mass production of ‘burbs) is long deceased.
The present big HBs did not exist 2 decades ago and most will no longer exist within 10 years (or less).
Quote from Ben Graham: “Markets can take months, even years, to turn around.”
Suggestion to you youngsters waiting/wanting to buy a home: Wait, wait & wait some more until even YOU are afraid to buy.
“Suggestion to you youngsters waiting/wanting to buy a home: Wait, wait & wait some more until even YOU are afraid to buy. ”
Outstanding! It’s a psychology thing, and you’re right, once it turns really really ugly is when the true opportunities surface. When all the $$$$ that was on the sidelines has already gone back in and there’s no reserve left. That’s when desperation takes hold, and that is the best time to buy. It’s as tough to pinpoint that precise time as it is to identify the top…
Ben,
I’ve got to say something here. I don’t see know where these newspaper reporters get the idea that “balanced” reporting is the proper way to report news.
What is important is uncovering the truth. Facts, raw numbers, and scientific data cannot and should not be watered down, and negotiated. Truth cannot be democratized and then reported in such a way as to be worthless. Is that what these journalists are being taught in journalism school?
To report Adolf Hitler in a “balanced” way a reporter would say, “He may have murdered some people, but he loved his German Shepherd Blondie.”
Ben - thanks for the hard work on the blog. I love reading the insights from so many people, and think that we have a special community here. All typing and sharing knowledge from all over the country. The real scoop is presented here before the media prints it. I think it is significant that a major paper representative has made a contribution to this blog and provided his valuable input also. This is a topic that evokes a lot of opinions and emotions from people, on top of the cold hard facts. This blog has helped a lot of people make decisions (me included). Keep up the great work.
Rainman 18 - want more Bubbles stories, and related. It is great for a laugh. And great for insulting the oblivious bulls who are out there pushing people into a lifetime of debt servitude. If they save one person, it has been worth it.
Reporting that prices might go down once in awhile just doesn’t cut it. Instead of quoting the NAR & CAR he should be investigating them for loan fraud and insider trading corruption. What a bunch of hooey.
Mr Lansner may be objective like he claims but the bias in some of other calif newspapers esp the local ones like San Jose Mercury News is more than obvious. they spice up any positive news about price and try to create a panic that if people do not buy now they’ll be left out. they cover up any negative news and have never ever mentioned that the price to rent ratio in Bay area are worst in the country or how buying house now is equivalent to renting money to invest with negative cash flow etc.