Savvy Buyers Now Have More Time To Shop
The Mail Tribune reports from Oregon. “Prices are down, and Jackson County home sales grew in year-over-year figures for the first time since 2005. Countywide, April’s median sales prices for existing homes declined 7.1 percent to $257,200, according to Southern Oregon MLS figures. For a three-month rolling quarter ending April 30, median prices declined 4.5 percent to $262,500.”
“‘I’ve been in this business for 20 years and for 19 years real estate only went up or flattened, then it went down,’ said Stephanie Horton, broker in Jacksonville. ‘It remains a buyers’ market, but buyers are trickling out. For little more than a year, there weren’t any buyers, and I had a lot of people tell me ‘I’m waiting to see how low it goes.’”
“With the local market so closely tied to the ups and downs of California housing sales, Horton sees good implications for the Rogue Valley. ‘California is picking up and we’re usually four to six months behind,’ she said.”
“There are about 2,350 homes on the market right now, up 41 percent from a year ago. That reflects a larger housing stock and sellers who took their homes off the market during the winter coming back.”
“‘For the first time in years, sellers are willing to negotiate. I don’t think it’s unusual for buyers to take 10 to 15 percent off the asking price and still get counter-offers. If they don’t get the counter, they’ll just shoot off another offer down the road,’ says Ron Galbreath of John L. Scott Real Estate in Medford.”
The Bend Bulletin from Oregon. “There was employment growth in every sector of Des-chutes County’s economy during the last three months of 2006, according to a federal report. Job growth is key to blunting effects from the softening local housing market for the next year, local bankers said.”
“‘I think we’ve had a run-up in housing prices the last few years, and a lot of that was driven by non-residents like speculators, and a lot of us would agree that the market got ahead of itself. So it’s a real positive to see that job growth, which could take care of some of the inventory in the market right now,’ said Robin Freeman, CEO of Prineville-based Community First Bank.”
“Wells Fargo’s Gary O’Connell agreed, noting that the FDIC report reflected some softness in the real estate market locally.”
“In Deschutes County, single-family housing permit growth dropped 21.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 compared with the same period in 2005, the report said, while multifamily housing permit growth dropped by 62.8 percent during that period.”
The News Tribune from Washington. “Just in time for the spring buying season: several signs that the Pierce County housing market continues to slow.”
“Pending sales in April were down 13.2 percent in Pierce County compared to the previous year, the biggest dip in the Puget Sound. The number of homes on the market shot up in April to 7,305, pushing inventory up 56 percent over the previous year, the region’s biggest increase.”
“‘The news is, pay attention, sellers, you’re not going to have the spring and summer you usually have,’ said said Dick Beeson, a Windermere real estate broker and MLS director.”
“Some of the county’s leap in inventory, Beeson said, can be attributed to the collection of new condos for sale. Pierce County saw a 114 percent increase in April’s condominium listings compared to the previous year.”
“For months, agents around the South Sound have been counseling their sellers to price right before listing a house. Remax agent Larry Tuell said some are still going too high in a market with savvy buyers who now have more time to shop. ‘You can’t get top dollar unless it’s in top-dollar shape,’ he said.”
The Herald from Washington. “Sales of single-family homes in Snohomish County continued to sag a little in April. For single-family homes alone, sales dropped nearly 18 percent in comparison to April 2006, according to statistics released by the Northwest MLS. Sales in the pipeline that didn’t close last month dropped by a similar amount, 16.5 percent.”
“For buyers, the good news is that listings increased by more than 51 percent, giving them many more choices than a year ago, when listings were falling. The number of condos on the market soared by 89 percent in comparison to a year ago, with 712 units available.”
The Olympian from Washington. “For the second month in a row, a burst of condominium sales helped to soften a drop in overall Thurston County home sales in April, the Northwest MLS reported.”
“Single-family home sales dropped more than 20 percent last month. The data includes sales of new and existing homes. The combined single-family home and condo sales data resulted in a 15 percent decline in home sales from a year ago.”
“Total active listings were nearly 50 percent higher at 2,029 units, up from 1,358 last year.”
“The pace of new South Sound loan applications has so far been strong this year, said Jeff Devlin, a Wells Fargo Home Mortgage consultant. Devlin said he doesn’t sense the ‘doom and gloom’ today that hung over the real estate market a year ago.”
“Condominium sales, meanwhile, remained strong in April, up significantly from last year. The sales increase had no apparent effect on median prices that dropped more than 16 percent from the same period last year.”
“A higher inventory of lower cost condos has caused median prices to drop, but as construction starts on more expensive condo projects this summer, median prices are expected to rise, said real estate agent Tamera Strawn, a condo sales specialist.”
The Seattle PI. “While home sales have slowed in King County and Western Washington, they’re picking up in Seattle. The patterns of increasing year-over-year sales in the city and declining sales in the county and region also hold true through the first four months of 2007, according to a Monday report by The Northwest MLS.”
“Home sales in April were down 4.2 percent in King County and 7.9 percent in all 19 Washington counties the MLS serves, compared with the same month last year. The declines are even larger excluding condominium sales.”
“The contrast between increased sales in Seattle and decreases in the county and region is not yet a trend, ‘but it’s certainly worth watching,’ said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University.”
“The city, county and region in April also continued a trend of increases in the number of homes on the market, with inventory up 52.9 percent in Seattle, 45.1 percent in King County and 39 percent in all 19 counties combined from April 2006.”
“Buyers are thinking about the uncertain state of the market. ‘That’s why we’re being selective in where we’re looking,’ said Eric Norman, who is viewing homes in Mount Baker, Beacon Hill and Columbia City. He said homes in the right neighborhoods should fare better in any downturn.”
“Sahrah Marcantonio was pessimistic about the market, but didn’t care. ‘I think it’s a bubble, we’re at the peak of the bubble, and yet, I want a house now,’ she said. ‘It’s for the long term.’”
‘Home foreclosures were up in and around Seattle in the first three months of the year. King County foreclosures were up 37.6 percent from the previous quarter.’
‘The Cowlitz County (WA) housing prices have remained relatively stable during the past year as more homes flood the market. In Cowlitz County, 622 homes were on the market last month, 64 percent more than a year ago, Home sales dropped to 86 last month, down from 132 a year ago and 98 in March 2007.”
When I looked at one Seattle zip code a few months back, the number of tax liens had gone from 36- 278 in one year. Astounding. Taxes were due again a few weeks ago. Wonder what it looks like now?
How ’savvy’ can someone be who is buying now at the start of a major downturn? flyover might be ok to buy but not coastal/bubble areas.
She doesn’t believe it. Says the words, a nodding of the head, but real estate only goes up.
By the way, in case you forgot this, or I forgot to tell you…real estate always goes up. Just so you know.
In the Mail Tribune article, they trumpet Jacksonville’s Median sales price increasing over the trailing quarter. What they don’t tell you is that that statistic is based on 6 houses **6** selling in the last three months.
It’s not hard to imagine one mansion skewing the median quite a bit when there’s only 6 total sales in three months!
Also, if you want to see the statistics for Jackson County, here they are:
http://www.jacstats.com/
Good info, thanks.
Median doesn’t get skewed like that. You’re thinking of average. If you have 6 houses and 5/6 sell for $400K with the 6th selling for $4 million, the median is $400K.
You’re right.
I still think the sample is pretty puny though. I mean, 2 sales per month?
The thing that chaps my ass is that they use these 6 sales to spin the entire Jackson County market, which saw a total of 431 sales during that same time. In other words, the “silver lining” of the story is based cherry-picking 1.4% of the sales.
Right; a better observation might be that perhaps higher-end homes are selling because of sub-prime mess, lack of entry-level buyers, etc. Median is really meaningless with such a small sample and no information on size/quality of houses sold, etc.
To find the Median, place the numbers you are given in value order and find the middle number.
Look at these numbers:
3, 13, 7, 5, 21, 23, 39, 23, 40, 23, 14, 12, 56, 23, 29
If we put those numbers in order we have:
3, 5, 7, 12, 13, 14, 21, 23, 23, 23, 23, 29, 39, 40, 56
There are fifteen numbers. Our middle number will be the eighth number:
3, 5, 7, 12, 13, 14, 21, 23, 23, 23, 23, 29, 39, 40, 56
The median value of this set of numbers is 23.
Devlin said he doesn’t sense the ‘doom and gloom’ today that hung over the real estate market a year ago.”
“Condominium sales, meanwhile, remained strong in April, up significantly from last year. The sales increase had no apparent effect on median prices that dropped more than 16 percent from the same period last year.”
And the Brick of the Month Award goes to… With more rational mix of home prices, the median drops 16%, and dear Mr. Devlin wonders why increased sales didn’t cause the median to rise. He should wonder at the drop, a closer indicator of the true house values.
Actually, I would like to hear about total prices more often (i.e. mean (average) x #sales). This would be a good gauge of the ’starvation/desperation’ level of lenders, builders, RE agents, etc. If the total amount of money moving around drops by 50%, whether it be due to falling prices or slowing sales, the banks, builders, RE agents, brokers etc just got a half size pie to divvy up.
You can get this at Melissa Data. They use sales x’s average sales price. Type in the zip you are interested in and go. Data goes back to 8/2001.
One thing holding up Rogue Valley prices is that retiring California equity locusts like to retire up here if they are able to sell their Ca. albatrosses.
Also the high price of houses in Ashland skews the price of Jackson County houses upward.
I don’t know why Ashland is so attractive except it is the first town you hit after leaving Ca. Shakespeare festival too, I guess.
“I don’t know why Ashland is so attractive except it is the first town you hit after leaving Ca. Shakespeare festival too, I guess.”
And they are afraid to go farther north and end up in Medford. That isn’t exactly a California lifestyle city
It’s nice to see that the northwest is starting to show it’s not “special” or immune from the rot. During the boom, high demand leading to tight inventories begat higher prices. The current weak demand coupled with mountainous inventories should beget lower prices, right? Don’t the laws of supply and demand work on the way down as well? The ultrabulls don’t think so.
Job growth is key to blunting effects from the softening local housing market for the next year, local bankers said.”
****Are these new jobs at the local Quickie Mart - what kind of strength is that? Can you afford a mortgage working at Walmart.
Even if the jobs pay 100K, using basic fundamentals they still can’t afford a 600K house.
You can if you live in Buffalo NY! If you and spouse work at Wally’s you can get a older medium serviceable shack for 2-3 x combined income.
It’d have to be a bad day in Black Rock, before I moved to Buffalo…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Rock,_New_York
Might be just the spot as global warming brings Buffalo milder winters.
Man, I can’t wait for these markets to come back to reality.
I remember LOTS of homes for sale in the Kirkland area along the lake in 2001 and 2002. And they seemed REALLY expensive then.
Then, loose credit happened…and more Californians happened…….and then more loose credit….
I’m not even sure when this market comes back to reality that I’ll buy.
I’m just sick of the gloating about how the NW is different. “The rest of the country is tanking but not here” is what I hear all the time.
People are speculating here without realizing there is an obvious lag. We’re just in the last car of the roller coaster.
I hear that too. Finally I learned to just shut up and watch. Down in my neck of the woods (Portland), building has slowed a lot from last year - maybe 50%? It’s as though the building world is in slow motion.
I’m in Portland, too. Take a ride into the South Waterfront. It’s spooky quiet down there in condo-ville. Not that I’m complaining.
If Portland’s condos were so different in that they didn’t allow speculators to buy them, how come there are so many that appear uninhabited?
Really?
They’re still building like mad in Pearl Distrcict and South Waterfront. Last I heard, it seems like The Wyatt and The Encore in Pearl District are not exactly flying off the shelves …
SoWa could flood the entire downtown market with flipper inventory. Those buildings are huge!
Annata, I’m out in the burbs, among the tracts, in Hillsboro, Beaverton, Newberg. I think the Pearl/South Waterfront stuff took so long to get permits, financing,etc. that they’ll move forward anyway, and change some buildings to apartments. Out in the burbs, they start one house at a time. Along 153rd in Beaverton, for example, I’ve been looking at the same new street, with no foundations going in. Same up the street at a 50+ unit condo development “coming soon.” This has some foundations poured, but nothing in the last two months.
Out in Newberg, DR Horton has started building in the golf course area - a bit - not anywhere near last year’s pace.
“Buyers are thinking about the uncertain state of the market.”
“Uncertain” state of the market. I like that. That’s like a guy who jumps off a bridge saying he’s “uncertain” about his future.
Off-Topic: Just looked up a property on Zillow; it’s 30-day change was up a lot, but when I clicked on “Comparables,” it showed one sale in April, none in March, and a bunch in February. What’s up with that? Is Zillow way behind, or have sales slowed that much?
When I bought my house at the end of February, the sale didn’t show up in Zillow until the middle of April. Depends on when they get their data feeds, but a lag of a month or so seems reasonable - I would expect that March sales would be showing up around now.
Let me give you a rogue idea of how wrong your thinking is…
If you can’t sell your house in the Golden State, you can’t go up to rainville.
Hope there’s no guilt by association with that last name, either.
“With the local market so closely tied to the ups and downs of California housing sales, Horton sees good implications for the Rogue Valley. ‘California is picking up and we’re usually four to six months behind,’ she said.”
I’m wondering where this realtor is getting the idea that CA is “picking up?” OR has low wages and high unemployment. Obviously the idiotic economic delusions that have plagued Californians for so many years have found their way north. Maybe it’s because so many CA people have moved up there and have infected the natives with their crazy thinking. Sorry, but OR is going to get hosed hard.
Yes, Portland wages suck - but hiring is reasonable. Yet housing has gone up in pace with the rest of the nation. I’ll just sit and wait… we don’t get quite as crazy here as they do down south in CA, so we won’t fall as far, but I’m sure we will fall, just give it time. I bought in 2000 so I don’t think we’ll be under water, but then, I’m planning to come out of our place feet first anyway.
It may be as simple as the fact that those Californians moving to Oregon have disposable money, and so ‘look’ well-off. But you really shouldn’t pet the rats jumping off a sinking ship.
the entire comment from the article was
“California is picking up and we’re usually four to six months behind,” she said. “I had people in Sacramento tell me that two houses on the same street went on the market recently and one sold in three days and the other in 10.”
umm, ok so this lady’s expert opinion on the CA housing market is based on 2 houses selling is Sac? if those houses sold THAT fast in sac they had to have been at severe discounts cuz that market is tanking fast? plus who knows, those may be people agreeing to buy but can they get financing? DO not hire this agent!
There is no evidence california is picking up from I see.I think it is actually gaining more steam to the downside due to lenders tightening up and loss of speculators.They must be smokeing too much wacky tobaccy up there.Sacramento is hurting last I checked.I’m watching sone condos in rocklin and they keep dropping the prices.
Sacramento prices are dropping 1% a month. Listing inventory is 20% over last year and will break the all time population adjusted record (17,913) in June 2007 (it broke the non-adjusted record with 17,342 listings in Aug 2006). Check the stats yourself:
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/search/label/Sac%20Inventory
http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/California/Sacramento/?state=California&city=Sacramento
This Stephanie Horton Realtor is dreaming…
CA is picking up? Where? Who? What? When?
Yeah, I missed it too.
The “California buyers are coming” is a typical realtor line/lie up here. It works to scare local buyers into thinking we’re still in a “buy now or be priced out forever” mode.
The local realtors don’t even have a clue about the local market so hard to know how they’d be aware of what’s going on in CA.
A realtor in Bellingham told me last week that the number of houses in this county had grown TEN fold (250 - 2500) from December, 2005 through now. But the market here is still good cuz a ton of Californians will be coming up.
It’s every Californians’ dream to move to WA. Just as every Manhattanite dreams of moving to the Albany area. Every Bostonian covets the New Hampshire lifestyle, etc. etc. I suppose the Chicago folks are pining to move to Minn. and Wisc.
They aren’t coming to Bellingham. They are coming to Montana, where jobs are plentiful. We practically sh*t high wage jobs out of our ass everyday. Actually there are a lot of Michigan, Minnesota and Vermont people competiting for government and tourism jobs here in the good state of Montana (Bozeman). I actually know of a Cali real estate agent that move up here two years ago. Last I heard, she is not doing to well.
“They are coming to Montana, where jobs are plentiful. We practically sh*t high wage jobs out of our ass everyday.”
I know you’re kidding. I once looked at the job market in Montana and had a real good laugh. Lower pay would be hard to find.
The Californians aren’t coming, The Californians aren’t coming!
At one point (around 1990) I got a job offer in Bozeman. They essentially said that they could not pay a competitive salary, but that the inexpensive housing made up for it. I was given a tour around town, including a few inexpensive places to live (I recall one duplex going for $35k or so). I’m guessing that the wages have not gone up as fast as the house prices…
Down da’ Chutes?
“In Deschutes County, single-family housing permit growth dropped 21.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 compared with the same period in 2005, the report said, while multifamily housing permit growth dropped by 62.8 percent during that period.”
if they’re savy 2 years ought to do it
I think it’s a bubble, we’re at the peak of the bubble, and yet, I want a house now,’
Let me guess - this brain surgeon is about 23 years old and has never been denied anything by Daddy.
Maybe she’ll submit a “lowball” offer to someone at 2% off of the asking price and claim victory when the seller “gives in” and sells it to her at 1% off.
And the article title implies that she’s a “savvy” buyer! HAHA!
It is amazing how many people in their early twentys have new homes and new cars.They seem entitled to everything I guess.Probably have not worked a hard day in their lives either.All this eqiuty money has created a bunch of spoiled , worthless punks. Everyday I drive by hispanics on the street corner looking for work and it makes me feel lucky about haveing a roof over my head right now.
Co-worker of mine is 22. She and her husband have a new house, new cars/truck, new ATV, AND a camper.
When I was 22, I was wondering how I was going to save for a new mountain bike.
It’s because we live in a society that allows this BS to happen.
I know a local boy in his late 20’s that got his Hummer repo’ed last fall, after spending several months hiding it about town. I just saw him recently driving a brand new Mercedes SUV. That about sums it up, doesn’t it?
Married at 22….wow, didn’t know anyone did that anymore. Kindof a shame - 22, married, new house, cars, etc…sounds like either a lot of debt or a lot of help from mummy and daddy. Some of the best times of my life were in my 20s: single, no responsibilities, sowing the old oats - what’s the rush with these youngsters today?
“sounds like either a lot of debt or a lot of help from mummy and daddy”
A little of both I believe. Her parents are fairly well off, but the need for these “things” comes from him. But a CAMPER?? Come on, those things are for retirees.
txchick57
I have a sister like this. I think she suffers from instant gratification syndrome.
23? A little old to be waiting around to buy a house, isn’t it? It is if you listen to the handful of recent college grads I work with… all of whom (OK, only 6 total) owe between $20K and $50K in education loans…..and most of whom drive new cars/SUVs.
Absolute disconnect between income/debt ratios. I could not be more amused, watching this slo-mo train wreck.
“Sahrah Marcantonio was pessimistic about the market, but didn’t care. ‘I think it’s a bubble, we’re at the peak of the bubble, and yet, I want a house now,’ she said. ‘It’s for the long term.’”
I wonder how many buyers who said the same thing a year ago can no longer make their mortgage payment.
I want a Lamborghini now, but I doubt I’ll ever get one! I like to EAT. Oh, and I like to have a shirt, and pants, the wife likes it that we have enough money for pants.
Sahrah, rah, rah, rah….she is drinking the Kool-aid in a big way.
She sounds like a brat who learned that Power Rangers aren’t cool anymore, but doesn’t care and still wants Power Rangers NOW for herself. The difference being that she’ll be upside down on her mortgage for a very long time.
this tart’s mindset is one of the driving forces for BK and Foreclosure in the PNW..
gotta get this one out:
There gonna be stacking REO’s like cordwood in about 13 months.
Virtually every listing for a manufactured home on land in the PNW says something to the effect of “live in the trailer now while you build your dream home”. The last time I checked, the only people who can afford $300k just for the dirt don’t want to build their dream home amongst a sea of trailers and methheads. With the subprime implosion, the market for trailers is almost nonexistent now.
“The last time I checked, the only people who can afford $300k just for the dirt don’t want to build their dream home amongst a sea of trailers and methheads”
Depends on how you define “dream home,” I guess. My thought about dream homes, is that if they’re in your dreams, it’s because you can’t afford them.
Good point. A “dream home” is something you’d buy if you won the lottery. So I guess, in a lot of ways, people were buying their “dream homes”, just without the lottery winnings. Thus, the current state of things.
Here at the Arizona Slim Ranch, the house is just a house. Not a dream house. Just a house.
“What good are dreams if they come true?” -Exley
A bit more dour than I should be with that quote (crummy day), but it seems that we’ve gone from the Me generation to the Me-and-hurry-the-%%%%-up-about-it generation.
Picking up from someone’s Veruca Salt quote the other day, I see a lot of mental children grabbing at the golden egg, falling down the reject chute and having their boomer parents follow them down to the incinerator.
Here in spongeland (NW Oregon) our dream house IS a manufactured home (replacing the tin can the land came with). At $50 a square foot placed, including a slab, it was impossible to beat. Nice place, too.
In my area (northwestern NC), even single-wides are being marketed for over $100 grand. How many people who have to live in a single-wide can afford to pay the montly mortgage on $100,000?
My brother lives near Winston-Salem. He has a 2300 sq ft house (about 8 years old). According to him its worth 170K tops. And its a pretty decent house.
That’s insane!
There is one mobile home park left within the city limits here in Chicago. It’s down in the Hegewisch neighborhood - far southeast side, on the border with Indiana. It’s a lower-middle class area, definitely NOT the ghetto (no public housing projects for miles). I’d guess that the area is predominately 2nd and 3rd generation eastern European immigrants. Surrounded by blue collar jobs, great access to downtown via two different commuter rail lines, pretty good access to Lake Michigan, and a surprising amount of park land nearby (mostly in the form of forest preserves).
You can buy a mobile home there for about $40,000.
“With the subprime implosion, the market for trailers is almost nonexistent now.”
I walk through a trailer park on the way to work every day, and have seen them destroying perfectly useable trailers (that had been for sale for a while with no buyers) with backhoes to make room for something newer. Perhaps they are worth so little that now is the time to go long on trailers?
They could use those trailers in New Orleans, or Kansas right about now. Oh wait, that’s doesn’t give us maximum profit NOW…
sigh…This country is just plain F’d.
Another observation regarding the PNW. There are tons of builder spec homes languishing. I used to wonder who was gobbling up all of the small rural acreage, but now I see that it was small time builders hoping to cash in. Their $350k-$1m+ specs don’t seem to be such a hit (location anyone?). These are a lot of the future foreclosures. Small time banks will eat a lot of this.
Here are a few examples to show what I am talking about:
http://tinyurl.com/2dhgjp
http://tinyurl.com/2zfnnb
http://tinyurl.com/2jxvgo
There are hundreds and hundreds of these homes. Seemingly all of the builders went after the high end, but the money isn’t there. There are simply not that many wealthy people. I’d guess that more than 80% of the builders built a product that less than 10% of the population can afford. What happens to all of these properties??
Those fake pictures hurt my eyes. I don’t know how anyone could look at that second link and think that is what their house is going to look like.
“What happens to all these properties?”
First step: Advertise them in the NY Times since no one in Gig Harbor can buy the house. (There were a ton of Gig Harbor/Seattle/Bainbridge/Bremerton homes in last weeks NY Times.)
Then, if/when you can’t unload them off on gullible out of staters for 10 times what they’re worth, the hope is that they revert to what locals can afford and they all get sold at fire sale prices.
uhhhh, I guess after the arson investigation, it really will be fire sale prices.
Sheesh, houses like those can be had for mid 400’s in Larimer County,
“What happens to all of these properties??”
I have it by good authority that rich Californians will be buying all these properties!
Well, this is a nice house- but $1.1 million in Wenatchee (!?!?!?!)
http://wenatcheeidx.com/listing.php?mls=679601&site_id=1
Wages for fruit pickers must have gone through the roof…
I’ve been in this business for 20 years and for 19 years real estate only went up or flattened, then it went down,’ said Stephanie Horton, broker in Jacksonville.
What does that mean? In those 19 years real estate when up and down? What in the world is her point?
She was probably doing secretary work for the first 19 years.
The other quote from her doesn’t make much sense either: “‘It remains a buyers’ market, but buyers are trickling out.’”
I guess when we do decide to buy, I’ll know which agent not to use.
“‘It remains a buyers’ market, but buyers are trickling out.’”
I think she means that even though it’s a buyer’s market, people still aren’t coming out to buy. That means that it will become a better buyers’ market where prices will have to drop enough to lure the would-be buyers off the sidelines.
Straighten up and price right?
“For months, agents around the South Sound have been counseling their sellers to price right before listing a house. Remax agent Larry Tuell said some are still going too high in a market with savvy buyers who now have more time to shop. ‘You can’t get top dollar unless it’s in top-dollar shape,’ he said.”
Straighten up and price right?
Many here predicted that the Realtors ™ would be the force pushing down price as soon as the lack of commisions stung their pockets.
We’re not quite in “fear” yet… but soon.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Is there a delay when posting links?
Not if your coffee’s strong enough. Add a scoop and then see how you do.
It would seem so, Neil. Here’s a realtor blog I found.
http://activerain.com/blogsview/77726/WHO-IS-BEING-HARMED
“There is a surfeit of homes on the market. Folks do move up, around, away or down so homes will always be placed on the market for sale. However, there are too few buyers interested in buying these homes at the present list prices. The market dictates one and only one solution. Prices must come down, way down, in average price to meet what the average buyer will or can qualify to pay. “
Bwaaa haa haa ha!
Oops, hate it when that comes out loud…
The invisible hand of the market has wound up and is coming back. Bummer they’re only responding to the air pressure wave in front of the slap.
Got popcorn?
Neil
catherine
I am so surprised that a realtor finally realized the issue. Now we have to find a major newspaper thats willing to advertise it.
Fed does nothing. Those of us holding Euro are dancing in the streets.
They’ll be dancing into next year.
Didn’t have the effect on gold in the US markets that I thought it would, but decision released late in the day. A higher opening in store tomorrow?
Not everyone thinks Bend is improving, at the bottom:
‘Another Bend resident, “Erin” has a different perspective. ‘Life here is very different,’ she wrote. ‘It is separated between the newbies and the ones who grew up here!…’
April Sale Info for Bend:
Listings Sold: 152
% of Inventory Sold: 8.49%
Listings Expired: 61
Avg Square Footage: 1973
Avg Days on the Mkt: 171
Avg Sale Price: $ 424,164.
Active Listings Apr 30: 1986
Sales down 30% YOY and inventory up 143% YOY…Neil, get extra popcorn cause the NW is about to blow.
you betcher @$$ buster,
the whole Bend/Ashland/Medford/Jacksonville its different here is just about ready to become a complete fiasco, BK may soon be a badge of honor around those parts.
Yeah, I’ve been enjoying popcorn. My smart friends, who bought a new place in 2004 (but sold their old one in Portland then too) - figured last year that they wouldn’t be under water, but there was no way the prices would last.
mwj:
May I ask you where you get this info from? I’m interesting in tracking the Bend market, but I’ve not been able to get comprehensive numbers. Thanks!
Go over to BendBubble2 and ask around. I forget. But I look at Realtor.com and there are usually 2000 places for sale at all times, in a city/area of 75000 or so.
A relative of mine lives in a nice suburb of Columbus Oh. The house is a 3BR, 1 1/2 bath, split level stucco, finished basement, deck, cathedral ceiling, fireplace and large yard. She says she thinks that it’s worth about 185,000. Does this seem low? What’s the lowdown on the Columbus area, is there a bubble here? I’m new to this blog, but find it great learning. The zip is 43085 if that helps. Any info would be helpful. Thanks.
The only real way to tell if it’s a bubble price is to go to the county tax records, etc. and see what comparable houses in the area sold for 5 or 10 years ago.
Bad idea to use comparisons from one area of the country to another. For Seattle, that house would be a STEAL. For Columbus, could be bubblicious. It seems the whole dang country went into bubble mode by ‘03/04 so I’d be careful.
Zillow also gives previously “sold” prices I think.
Two ways to see if houses are valued right:
1. Compare the rents with a 100-120 rule. A 3-bed townhome rents for ~1200/mo. 1200×100 to 120 = a townhome should cost between $120K - $144K. SFH would be a little more expensive, depending on yard, schools, etc.
2. Are houses ~2-3 times medium income? Eh, it’s a breeze if you combine, a squeeze if you have one income.
My impression of that area (I’m no expert, mind you) is that older houses are priced mostly okay, but new houses are crappy spec and overpriced bubbly. 43085 on Realtor.com returns ~$180-$190K homes.
So IMO $185K is in ballpark, perhaps a little high.
A house is priced right if you can sleep well at night after you bought it.
Just a general observation. I live in Santa Monica, just south of the famed ” north of Montana Ave.” area. I took a walk up that way, and I’m already starting to see more homes with “For Rent” signs on them. Rents can be between 5 and 10 grand and up(five would be really low). These are homes that clearly have people living in them(owners), and were not for rent before. Just more signs of the economic precipice we are on, giving me the heebie-jeebies…And tear-downs are now priced at 2.2 mil for a 7500 sq. foot lot, up from 1.5 just a year and a half ago…
“These are homes that clearly have people living in them(owners), and were not for rent before.”
This is part of the reason that I sold my home. I considered renting out part of it but thought that if the SHTF, there will be a lot of vacancies turned into rentals and FBs renting out rooms.
A lot of those 22 year olds that “want it NOW” will foreclose and move in with M&D. Rents will be going down soon as well as prices.
“Buyers are being selective in where they’re looking…certain neighborhoods will fare better than others…that’s why we’re looking in Beacon Hill, Mt. Baker and Columbia City”…
This is a really funny quote. These are precisely the neighborhoods that people flocked to in the mid-late 90’s when the bubble began in the trully desirable Seattle ‘hoods. There was a huge push for gentrification that never quite materialized. They’re okay neighborhoods but not exactly the ones that I would name as sure bet “value holders”!
Either something spectacular has happened to these neighborhoods in the last year or this guy has not lived in Seattle very long. Probably got his info on a hot tip from a realtor.
They’re okay neighborhoods but not exactly the ones that I would name as sure bet “value holders”!
I’d call them “gentrifying”, and they’re probably the first places that will lose value when the market in Seattle finally catches up with the rest of the country
Here’s a summary I received from a RE agent I was dealing with, on the current state of the market in Ventura County, CA:
The inventory of homes has edged up the past couple of months throughout Ventura County & SFV, although several cities have dropped. Ventura County overall i.e., east and west county (Conejo Valley to Ventura) has 3424 single family homes on the active market with 796 pending sales or about a 4.3 month supply of homes. There are 1019 condo/townhomes for sale and 306 pending sales or just over a 3 month supply of standing inventory. Figures are about the same for the San Fernando Valley. In reality, a very healthy stable market is usually considered to be anything under a 6 month supply of homes. For comparison sake, In many parts of the country right now there are standing inventories of 30 months or more.
The public has been getting mixed messages from the media, as well as from the real estate community which adds to the confusion of, “where is the market going?” You have to understand that the media loves to sensationalize all news, and that a large percentage of the Realtors today have been in the business less then 5 to 10 years, and have not experienced a correction before! This correction is much different then that of the early 90’s where interest rates surged and the economy went into a nose dive. Today, interest rates are lower then they were last year this time and economy appears to be strong on the local level. I don’t see this market as a crash, but only as a correction of the Bull Market we’ve recently experienced.
This makes for a wonderful opportunity for those who are looking to trade up, trade down or buying for the first time. Homes are staying on the market longer now, so gone are the days of rushing right out and putting offers in a home before it disappears. Well priced, sharp homes however, are still moving quickly. The National Association of Realtors says a healthy market, is one that has six months or less of inventory. Ventura County & SFV are seeing on average of about a 5.4 month supply of homes on the market. West Ventura County has a healthy active inventory of single family and attached homes, down from previous months. It’s a wonderful time for a buyer to find a home that will match their needs for the long term! Please feel free to call or email me with any questions regarding Ventura County or SFV real estate.
Sincerely,
Rob and Ralph
“This makes for a wonderful opportunity for those who are looking to trade up, trade down or buying for the first time.”
Those two must be incredibly high! …or delusional…
I’m getting a contact high, just reading that drivel…
It’s ALSO great for anyone thinking of selling!!!
(they missed one base)
I don’t see this market as a crash, but only as a correction of the Bull Market we’ve recently experienced
It’s a “correction,” not a “crash.” Gotcha. Let me know when the market has “corrected” 50% off of 2006.
these morons shoudl learn the difference between then and than….and you don’t put an offer “in a home” Rob/Ralph, you put in an offer to buy a home.
Just goes to show the average realtor is an uneducated tool.
WSJ reporting on rising loan delinquencies:
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/mortgages/20070412-simon.html
Benjiman Johnson, a single father on a fixed income who lives in Sacramento, Calif., fell behind on his $300,000 mortgage in January after the combination of loan and property-tax payments became unmanageable.
I love how someone on a “fixed income” is supposed to be pitied. I guess then that I too am to be pitied, being that I am “exempt” and not paid for overtime work (as are millions of others).
The Bend Bulletin from Oregon. “There was employment growth in every sector of Des-chutes County’s economy during the last three months of 2006, according to a federal report. Job growth is key to blunting effects from the softening local housing market for the next year, local bankers said.”
Man, how much chicken feed and bales of hay can people buy?
“employment growth” - yeah, CONSTRUCTION jobs paid for by outside capital. Take THAT away (happening right now) and things will look different.
You can tell there IS a STILL a Bubble when these clowns are STILL paying 700K and UP for a STARTER shacks with with a MAGNIFICENT VIEW of someone elses Vinyl, Stucco or Phony Brick siding next door.
STOP and Think about it
ha ha ha
That’s a LOT of money for the View, regardless of Where you are
“The city, county and region in April also continued a trend of increases in the number of homes on the market, with inventory up 52.9 percent in Seattle, 45.1 percent in King County and 39 percent in all 19 counties combined from April 2006.”
Repeat after me until you are blue in the face:
ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL
ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL
ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL
…
This was in the Denver Post today………..
Colorado’s rising foreclosure rate shows no sign of abating, according to a first quarter count from the Colorado Division of Housing.
Public trustees in 51 of the state’s 64 counties reported 9,254 foreclosures started in the first quarter.
If that pace continues, Colorado will record more than 37,000 foreclosures this year, about 30 percent above the 28,453 recorded in 2006, which was 31 percent higher than 2005.
“I thought I would see some moderation and flattening,” said Ryan McMaken, a housing division spokesman who compiled the report. “We will exceed last year’s numbers.”
As was the case last year, foreclosures remain concentrated along the Front Range with Adams, Weld, Arapahoe, Denver, and Pueblo counties the hardest hit areas.
In Adams, 1 out of 98 households entered foreclosure during the first quarter, while in Weld County it was 1 in 124.
In some counties, such as Douglas, foreclosures are trending lower, and across much of the Western Slope they aren’t a problem.
“I thought I would see some moderation and flattening,” said Ryan McMaken, a housing division spokesman who compiled the report. “We will exceed last year’s numbers.”
And they will be exceeded again next year, until all the suicide loans have been reset and FB’s have exhauste dall their resources.
Sarah Connor?
“Sahrah Marcantonio was pessimistic about the market, but didn’t care. ‘I think it’s a bubble, we’re at the peak of the bubble, and yet, I want a house now,’ she said. ‘It’s for the long term.’”
Bang!
Things will sell, as long as you have a strawn buyer, to give all appearances of such…
“A higher inventory of lower cost condos has caused median prices to drop, but as construction starts on more expensive condo projects this summer, median prices are expected to rise, said real estate agent Tamera Strawn, a condo sales specialist.”
The only question (regarding Seattle) is when do we finally run out of:
1) Easy loans
2) CA Equity Locusts
3) GFs
The answer is….the supply is being turned off and all the above will be tapped out by this summer. I am now convinced that the collapse will happen much faster than I thought.
Woo hoo, Seattle prices are still rising. That means Seattle will be the least desireable/most expensive place in the country which will fuel Seattle’s collapse even more forcefully.
Gravity…the higher you climb…the more severe the crash.
Some of the average old houses still sell for 550k-600k here in the Eastside (Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond). Many received multiple bids still, Microsoft employees have been buying them up.
“Buy now or price out forever!”
Well, I would think a ’savvy’ buyer would wait this mess out. Anyone who buys a house should be aware that housing doesn’t always hold it’s value. Unless of course, you believe in magic and have a magic wand stuck in the butt.
OT, I like the term ‘equity Locust’. I think it’s a fitting name given the demeanor of their kind. If I had the power, I’d deport them back to the state they came from. Keep CA/FL/TX/etc.. in their own states. That’s why we have state borders.
Another thing too, I’d wish all of the realtor’s big fat melon shaped heads would explode. The majority of the realtors I’ve met are a bunch of morons.