May 13, 2007

Post Local Market Observations Here!

What do you see in your housing market this weekend? More inventory? “Jill Stone and her husband have been trying to sell their Burlington, Vermont home for a month now. ‘We’ve had a few showings, and we’ve had a few offers. But the offers are coming in lower than our listing price,’ said Stone.”

“The number of houses for sale in Vermont has about doubled in the last two years. ‘You don’t have to make an offer right away, there’s plenty on the market for people to take a look at. When we were buying 2 and half, 3 years ago, you had to make an offer that day or the house was gone,’ said Stone.”

“North Texas existing home sales are down for the third month in a row, according to figures released Friday. Sellers are also seeing increased competition from their neighbors. The number of homes on the market has increased 10 percent to 48,948 active listings in the past year.”

Housing affordability measures? “San Diego County’s high housing prices are no surprise to residents, but now Forbes.com has named the region as the nation’s most overpriced real estate market in a ranking of the country’s 40 largest metro areas.”

“Report author Matt Woolsey said that rankings were based on a complicated mix of a theoretical ‘price-to-earnings’ ratio, attempting to measure the price a homeowner paid for every $1 in return, and housing affordability.”

Insurance changes? “Allstate, California’s third-largest home insurer, is backing away from writing homeowners policies. Allstate claims the combination of high housing costs and all-too-frequent natural disasters is just too much for it to handle anymore.”

News from Wall Street? “Never underestimate the ability of a Wall Street investment firm to find a new way to pawn off risky assets onto retail investors. The latest example? The initial public offering for Everquest Financial.”

“Everquest…has been buying up equity interests in risky bonds backed by subprime mortgages from hedge funds managed by Bear Stearns, one of Wall Street’s biggest underwriters of mortgage-backed securities and other exotic mortgage-related bonds. The deal appears to be an unprecedented attempt by a Wall Street house to dump its mortgage bets.”




RSS feed | Trackback URI

142 Comments »

Comment by flatffplan
2007-05-12 08:35:17

22151 s of DC 93 properties for sale from 375k to 700k
new record

Comment by LancenDC
2007-05-15 08:29:35

Charles County MD 20603, 02, 02, 46, now at all time high inventory as of last week. Prices only slightly dropping, days on market double now. Tough to tell final sale ratio to list price since most that are moving have reduced price…New contruction closures and recordings not doing well since tightening. Inventory mostly in the 350-499 range, as opposed to 400-550. some houses that originally listed for 500 selling close to 420… due to 2800/mn stipend the DOD gives active duty for extra housing, market will have to see many house prices drop below 416K to see movement, especially since most builders and realtors dont realize that Navy and others have privatized base housing and therefore that stipend ends up there on base rather than in community except when active memebers speculated and purchased as investment, now hurting when their 3 yr tour is up. Though we still have a ways to go down since most of our home sales were recently done with Alt A SISA, and the good ol option ARM. Our FC numbers are still low , double digits, but we have hundreds of active BK’s trying to salvage a little time.

 
 
Comment by KayLaw
2007-05-12 08:36:39

Prices have sure come down in my neighborhood in the Tampa Bay area. One person has been trying to sell his house for about 18 months. Last year the house next to him sold for $409 though both were asking for about $450. This year he’s come down to $350 but houses are going for $300 or less.

Another neighbor is a “We buy Ugly Houses” kind of guy. He just bought a new car and a very nice boat, yaht really.

Comment by palmetto
2007-05-12 09:21:37

KayLaw, I know I asked this before, but are you here in SouthShore? Have you seen the Centex development going in on 18th?

Well, anyway, here in Southshore Tampa Bay, it’s kind of creepy right now. First of all, there’s a pall of smoke over everything. The illegals were out in force at the estate/garage sales, but not much of anyone else, people are tending to stay inside. The Lennar sign spinner was doing a dance on rte. 674, trying to get people over to Riverbend, a real mess of an “upscale” community along the Little Manatee River. Along Apollo Beach Blvd., they’re working like mad on remodelling 12 fourplex units on a canal into condos (Pilar’s Harbor). Who is going to buy them, I’d like to know?

Comment by KayLaw
2007-05-12 09:48:29

No, we live in unicorporated Pinellas, though we have a Largo address. The smoke was sure awful yesterday. When we drive out to the beach, we wonder the same thing you do; who’s going to buy all those condos?

 
Comment by Dave
2007-05-12 10:05:04

Hey Palmetto, I resemble that remark. We rent in Riverbend. My guess is over 90 percent of the residents in here are renters. Neighborhood keeps getting worse.

Comment by palmetto
2007-05-12 15:19:54

Hey, Dave, didn’t mean to insult you. I’d rent in Riverbend in a heartbeat if I had a family, but I’d never buy there. Riverbend was a good idea that was very poorly executed. Great area, though, especially the older part across First Street. Hope to buy a little older concrete shack back there some day. In the meantime, enjoy, it’s the nicest part of Ruskin, IMHO.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Dave
2007-05-12 17:27:45

No offense taken. It could have been a nice development, but of course it was snapped up by speculators and most have given up trying to sell and have rented them out. Still plenty of unsold homes and I think eventually they’ll just give up. The back section has about 10 partially constructed homes starting in the mid 700’s — that is not going to end pretty. Hundreds of cleared lots that will probably just end up overgrown with weeds. I have noticed the quality of tenants has been declining as the rents have dropped- some are renting out rooms. We would never buy in here because of the risk of future decline. I expect it to get much worse by the end of the year. There’s alot of homes that we think are in foreclosure (empty with no for sale signs anymore). We’re just waiting it out until the bubble pops.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ozarkian from Saratoga, CA
2007-05-12 08:37:16

Word of mouth news from the Ozarks (SW MO) & Prescott, AZ

In a town next to Springfield, MO a friend has been unable to sell a beautiful 2 year old house priced at $300K. They had a buyer but the deal fell thru as it was contingent on the buyer selling their own home. Traffic to see the house is very light…a few people a month.

Another friend was looking at houses in Prescott, AZ — her estimate is half of the houses are empty.

 
Comment by Tom
2007-05-12 08:38:45

“Everquest…has been buying up equity interests in risky bonds backed by subprime mortgages from hedge funds managed by Bear Stearns, one of Wall Street’s biggest underwriters of mortgage-backed securities and other exotic mortgage-related bonds. The deal appears to be an unprecedented attempt by a Wall Street house to dump its mortgage bets.”

People are willing to buy Fremont and LEND. If there is a market for crap then you sell them crap.

Comment by az_lender
2007-05-12 08:54:29

The full Business Week article on the Everquest offering ends with an observation that issuance of CDOs has increased by a factor of 10 since 1996, “largely due to the demand for bonds backed by mortgages.” Hmm. Certainly there is a demand for bonds paying some kind of yield higher than US Treasuries. Whether the MSM publicity about the subprime implosion has completely killed the “demand for bonds backed by mortgages” is an open question. My bet is yes.

 
 
Comment by dan
2007-05-12 08:46:58

How is Flag’s market these days? Since I sold my home there a couple years ago(made a killing off a piece of crap manufactor home) You know the place Railroad Springs Train Wreck. In fact, going to see the folks in flag today yee haa!

Comment by Cassandra
2007-05-12 12:00:57

Looks to me like Flag is in Wile-e-Coyote mode still. Increasing inventory but no price decrease. Hope no one looks down…

 
 
Comment by lainvestorgirl
2007-05-12 08:52:27

I don’t know if this has shown up in any statistics yet, but my contractor says people are now losing their houses like crazy down under (in south central)?

Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-12 10:01:10

Using realtytrac, if you use the “map” option, you can visually see where all of the NODs, Foreclosures, and REOs are. In most places in LA, I can’t even graph all three because it says “too many properties to show”.

Try it, it will scare you !

 
Comment by sigalarm
2007-05-12 10:20:08

I posted below about mysterious drops in inventory in the MLS for some markets. One thing I suspected is that the foreclosure wave is cresting higher, and that is sucking inventory out of the MLS.

 
 
Comment by sf jack
2007-05-12 08:54:47

“The Stones are lucky to have the luxury to wait for the right buyer to come along.

Concluded Stone: ‘As of now, we’re going to wait for the right offer.’

A wait that, despite most likely being longer than it would have been a few years ago, should be over soon.”

********

“Should be over soon”?

Says who? Do they have a GF all lined up and ready to go?

Nice to see that WCAX-TV in Burlington, Vermont can play that MSM cheerleading role as well as the larger outlets.

Except it’s so 2006.

 
Comment by SeattleMoose
2007-05-12 08:55:02

I have been keeping a spreadsheet of listings (from the same site…Glover RE) to gauge inventory trends. I update the spreadsheet weekly for King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. I started 5-7-06. Well I finally have my first YOY “for sale” inventory listings:

May-06 to May-07

King Co - 46% increase
Pierce Co - 56% increase
Snohomish Co - 55% increase

With inventory about 50% higher across the board one has to wonder just who all these sellers are? Especially if the economy is so good and there “is no bubble in Seattle”. So what has changed from a year ago to cause such a huge runup in inventory?

CA Equity Locusts who are already sick of Seattle?
Laid off RE industry personnel?
The laid off Zune team?
Aborted condo conversions?
Bio threat in Ballard?
Empty builder tract homes?
Flippers/Infestors?
Long time residents wanting to cash in at the top?
FBs?

My guess….the last 3.

Let’s see…median prices falling everywhere but Seattle, inventory exploding across the country, credit tightening, shaggy lending practices being exposed daily, and lenders dropping like leaves in the fall…

The only logical outcome of all of this is…..prices have nowhere to go but up….buy now or be priced out forever!!! Seattle is SPECIAL!!! When everywhere else in the country has dropped in price everyone will want to move here!!! And that means more demand which means…..

Comment by AmazedRenter
2007-05-12 09:43:43

SeattleMoose, thanks for your post. It’s good to hear that I’m not the only one sitting this one out in Seattle.

The denial is stunning indeed in Seattle. I see a marked difference in inventory, DOM and pricing from just 6 months ago.

Over at the SeattleBubbleBlog, people are still arguing with the bulls. At this point, with so much data (inventory, sales, DOM) pointing that Seattle is merely a laggard, exchanging words with housing bulls is a waste of one’s time.

The clueless media is nothing but charming. Yes, the median price is up. However, sales are down and inventory is up 50%…and we have barely gotten started with the credit tightening.

One last thing - remember Sahrah quoted in the Seattle PI the other day? I happen to know her, and she told me that she’s no longer looking. One fewer buyer…

Comment by bob
2007-05-12 10:24:56

But the ‘reported’ prices are still going up - thats the only thing that folks in Seattle and the east side pay attention to - cant wait for this to tip over

 
Comment by SeattleMoose
2007-05-12 11:27:05

Since I have been a low-life scumbag renter since 9/2005 (and actually enjoying it) I have viewed a lot of homes, kept track of sale prices, and kept track of the rental market (just moving into my 3rd rental place in June).

Here is a trend that is MUCH stronger this year in the “nicer” parts of the area (Madison Park, Leschi, Capitol Hill, etc.)….many Craigslist ads to rent “half a house” for the same price ($1600 to $2500) as you would pay to rent a whole house just about anywhere else in the area.

I think this is FBs and Infestors being “creative” to cover the fact that there is no way rents can cover the mortgages associated with the insane prices people have paid over the last 5 years. Oh yea, and those ARMS are coming home to roost….

I hope people see thru this and “just say no” to cramped communal living just so some FB/Infestor can continue on with their high-falutin lifestyle.

Hosue prices and rent prices will benefit greatly when all the FBs/Infestors are purged from the market and living in “tent city”…

It is a great time to be a low-life, loser, scumbag…renter.

Sorry Neil……got Moosemunch?

Comment by Lionel
2007-05-12 12:03:49

Moose, I also notice some newer townhomes, granite, etc., showing up on craigslist in Seattle. I’m pretty sure the orginal intention wasn’t to rent tehse places.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2007-05-12 08:55:24


Here in Tehachapi, CA, 30-40% of the homes listed above $300K (median selling price; median listing price is $349K) were built in 2005-2007. I think that most of them are empty and might have never been lived in. BTW, these don’t include homes built by major builders like KBH.

Empty homes are the real story of housing in the US. There are few areas that don’t suffer from this problem. The real bubble was in overbuilding. Of course, the rising prices created the incentives to overbuild.

Jas

Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-12 09:21:58

Empty homes are the real story of housing in the US.

Do the Wizards of Fed know this? And that respiking operations would add to the glut of unoccupied McMansions?

Comment by rms
2007-05-13 11:09:04

“Do the Wizards of Fed know this?”

Eventually low-wage Mexicans will be living in them.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-12 09:24:20

Of course, the rising prices created the incentives to overbuild.

Equally if not more important: The rising prices created the incentives to overbuild oversized houses which are a poor match for an underbalanced wealth distribution. Now we have a glut of homes that only rich guys can afford at the builder’s target price, but all the rich guys already own nicer homes and have no reason to invest in falling knives not supported by fundamentals.

Comment by palmetto
2007-05-12 09:40:24

GetStucco, what was built here in West Central Florida is insane and shows a total lack of understanding of the market in this immediate area. They’ve built four bedroom homes. For who? Here in this area we have mostly retirees, older singles, some younger couples, snowbirds and illegals. The illegals are fine, there’s at least three subsidized housing complexes for them. The retirees have Sun City Center. Much of the housing was built for families, but I can tell you the illegals aren’t going to be buying those any time soon, except for a handful that are putting two and three families into some of the houses. There’s very little available for a huge, underserved market, which is the older singles and younger couples with no children. There are lots of people looking for roommates to make ends meet.

Comment by Eastofwest
2007-05-12 10:28:04

I believe it was never about fundamentals…It was showing growth for the HB stock ,and hedge fund investments…As long as you were showing growth the stock went up, the funds made tons etc..All the insiders took their cut off the table, and have their assets overseas , and in untraceable assets. Once this unwinds I think you will see who the real GF’s were..Pension funds, and unwitting equity holders ( even though you should know what you’re invested in ).

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by SeattleMoose
2007-05-12 11:11:00

Bingo….agree 100% with this post.

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-13 11:20:35

I concur with everything you said, and have one point to add.

The Fed set off a tsunami of housing price inflation by holding the real Fed funds rate down to a negative level over a protracted period in the early 2000s. If inflation is running at roughly the same percentage rate across the spectrum of home prices, builders and speculators do best by building and making spec purchases of the largest possible homes, as a 1% gain on a $1m home is obviously ten times as large as a 1% gain on a $100K home, and during the bubble, a home that sold for twice the sale price cost less than twice as much to build.

Unfortunately, during the hangover phase in the aftermath of the bubble, morning-after syndrome will kick in, as it becomes increasingly apparent that the homes built from 1998-2007 are a terrible mismatch with the U.S. income distribution. This is the real cost of housing price inflation, and I hope someone at the Fed leaves careful notes behind on this subject so future generations of central bankers can avoid this pitfall.

 
 
Comment by jtie
2007-05-12 15:28:29

yes

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by diemos
2007-05-12 21:28:30

Those McMansions will make excellent public housing. You should be able to squeeze in 10-20 section 8 tenants per unit.

 
 
 
Comment by agitated in sd
2007-05-12 08:56:23

“San Diego County’s high housing prices are no surprise to residents”

the word from this resident is: Exasperated

Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-12 09:19:04

Last weekend at this time I was wondering if SD’s ziprealty.com inventory would reach 18K by today. Here is the answer:

“Your search has returned the first 200 of 18176 homes”

My estimate was 176 homes to the low side!

Also, the median list price in my zip code has dropped by $1 since last weekend (really!) from $1.3m to $1,299,999, though the number of homes listed has grown steadily since Feb 1(up from 200 to 245 homes — +22.5%).

Here is the median-priced SFR (note it was built less than three years ago):

14385 CAMINITO LAZANJA SD - Rancho Bernardo, 92127
$1,299,999 - $1,399,999

Beds: 4 | Baths: 4 | Square Ft: 3,878 | Lot Size: N/A

Yr. Blt: 2004 | Listing Date: 09/08/06

Description: Davidson plan 1. Elegant executive home with many upgrades. Gourmet kitchen with two islands,…

Dutch auction, anyone?

Price Reduced: 12/09/06 — $1,499,000 to $1,399,000
Price Reduced: 03/13/07 — $1,399,000 to $1,299,999
Days on Market: 246

Comment by asuwest2
2007-05-12 21:01:48

And I see that PHX finally broke the 60k mark (60061). Been hanging there for a bit.

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-13 11:44:31

“Your search has returned the first 200 of 18218 homes”

Sunday morning update: Added another 42 homes to inventory overnight (294 weeklyzed rate…).

 
Comment by Chip
2007-05-13 12:19:03

If you knock off a zero, it would be $149,900 dropped to $129,900 over 246 days. 13% isn’t much of a drop, these days. Gimme 20%, just to get some showings.

 
Comment by LancenDC
2007-05-15 08:36:46

seeing that same dollar reduction in Charles county MD outside DC…double inventory down a dollar

 
 
 
Comment by sigalarm
2007-05-12 08:56:46

Hello all, been a while since I reported on the state of things being monitored under Hardtack (click the link on my name it see it). Nationally the inventory ramp up has flattened out, and is no longer rocketing higher. Regionally it looks like the North East, Midwest and some areas of the South are still adding inventory.

Some areas such as Florida, the inventory numbers are actually falling. When this first started happening I was certain that it had to be some bug in our software, and we spent a good amount of time looking at it. But it seems that MLS (at least through the web interface) actually reflects the numbers we are showing. The question I have is - why?

Some thoughts:

1) People are finally buying in Florida? (Seems unlikely)
2) There are that many houses going into Foreclosure and bouncing off the MLS, possibly to return soon as REO
3) People capitulating and pulling their houses off the market because they cannot sell them for what they want.

Please feel free to post opinions below. Views of some other popular bubble spots for your enlightenment:

San Diego: http://tinyurl.com/ysbyde
Phoenix: http://tinyurl.com/2gxex4
Orlando: http://tinyurl.com/ysx3aq
Bakersfield: http://tinyurl.com/2yvtx5
Sacramento: http://tinyurl.com/ytwoqk
Washington DC: http://tinyurl.com/2465g3
Las Vegas: http://tinyurl.com/ypfzav

Comment by Fresno Bubblewatcher
2007-05-12 09:13:42

I think the answer is two things:

1. People have been unsuccessful in finding a GF for their stucco sh*tboxes, which have been on the market for in many cases more than one year at highly inflated prices due to a) buying in 2004/2005/2006), or b) bought long time ago, but HELOC’s the h*ll out of their home, and now they CAN’T drop their price

2. If they can still make the monthly stroke, they have decided to pull the home off the market, rent it out, and wait for the “Spring Bounce” in 2008.

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-12 10:13:17

“state of things being monitored under Hardtack”

Very nice site!

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-13 11:40:14

Not clear: Does this site report list prices or sale prices? (I am guessing list, but cannot see that information anywhere…)

For San Diego, this is an interesting development: 189 SFRs added to inventory in the $300K-$400K price range over the past month. To my best recollection, there were virtually no SFRs for sale under $500K back in 2005.

“Fastest Changing Price Ranges
Price Range 7 Days Ago 1 Month Ago Change
$300,000.00 - $400,000.00 1,411 1,222 189″

Comment by sigalarm
2007-05-13 16:05:32

Good question GS - at present we cannot get to the MLS sale price, so we are only listing the ask price. We hope in the future to get the price that they sell at so we can track the gap between the orginal ask and the closing sale.

 
 
 
Comment by sf jack
2007-05-12 09:04:26

From the San Diego affordability story:

“Most overpriced U.S. home markets

1. San Diego
2. Miami
3. Sacramento
4. San Francisco
5. Washington, D.C.
6. Honolulu
7. New Jersey
8. Los Angeles
9. Boston
10. San Jose
Source: Forbes.com”

********

It’s interesting to me that San Jose is only # 10. High income area, no doubt, but job growth has been anemic since dot mania ended and the bubble started earlier there than anywhere.

I’m also interested to see if San Francisco climbs relatively higher in the rankings as prices hold “better” here over time (this being the REIC party line) as compared to everywhere else.

Comment by Domi
2007-05-12 09:40:07

I’m surprised that New York did not make the list… and where did New Jersey come from, now thats a shocker.

Comment by Grubner
2007-05-12 10:08:52

Wooo Wooo We’re number 7 and your just jealous of our success.

 
Comment by domi
 
 
 
Comment by Bob Morris
2007-05-12 09:05:59

We sold our house in Van Nuys CA (part of the city of L.A.) on Jan. 28.

Our broker there just emailed saying comparables are now 15-20% less and the market is slow. This in just 3 1/2 months.

Comment by lainvestorgirl
2007-05-12 09:28:52

Check out the growing inventory and price decreases in W. LA:

Price Change - Decrease $1,075,000 # of Units: 2

MLS Number
06-143447
564 broadway ave,venice, CA 90291
Area: Venice
Corner 2 houses-on-a-lot property. Both homes to be delivered vacant @ the close of escrow. Private, secluded tropical paradise, lot size is 38.5′x130′…walk to the Abbot Kinney Shopping, Beach and all the best west side has to offer. Both homes have hi-ceilings, sky-lites, open kitchens, French doors lead to the decks. Mostly copper water lines, updated electrical, make it a winner with imagination… Day sleeper, limited showing with proper notice. Seller to do IRS 1031 exch. @ no cost2buyer.

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Income
Rooms:
Equipment:Built-Ins,Hood Fan

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 15:44:30Price Change - Decrease $910,000 2 Beds 2.00 Baths

MLS Number
07-166779
2944 exposition,santa monica, CA 90404
Area: Santa Monica
A truly harmonius blend of Asian and Californian architecture exists in this remodeled traditional Santa Monica cottage. Superlative taste and attention to architectural detail has yielded a contemporary hideaway that offers 2 beds, 2 baths, Zen garden, and expansive flat yard. This gated bamboo and ficus hedged enclave is perfect for outdoorentertaining. Favorable zoning may even allow the end user to add additional unit(s) to the property for rental income.

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Single Family
Rooms:Living
Equipment:Dishwasher,Dryer,Garbage Disposal,Hood Fan,Range/Oven,Refrigerator,Washer

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 17:06:02Price Correction - Decrease $849,000 1 Beds 1.00 Baths

MLS Number
07-180487
614 grant st,santa monica, CA 90405
Area: Santa Monica
Beautifully remodeled Ocean Park w/ city&mountain views. 1 bed 1 bath bungalow with 1 car garage + 1 parking space. Move right in! refinished floors, remolded bath, Upgraded kitchen. LR is light and bright with turn of the century windows. Lg. front yard with great areas for large decks. New sprinklers & landscape. Perfect to build your dream home. Walk to the beach, Main St. or Santa Monica Pier. Highly sought after area. Open 5/15 & 5/20.

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Single Family
Rooms:Living
Equipment:Cable

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 18:29:26Back On Market $1,299,000 # of Units: 3

MLS Number
07-183247
2408 abbot kinney,venice, CA 90291
Area: Venice
TRIPLEX - TOTALLY REMODELED AND DELIVERED EMPTY!!!Absolutely gorgeous triplex (3 x 1 bedroom units) on Abbot Kinney Blvd between Venice Blvd and Washington Blvd. Close to the beach and only blocks from cafes, restaurants and bars. Perfect for an owner-user or as an investment property. All new kitchens, bathrooms, bamboo floors and landscaping. A MUST-SEE!!

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Income
Rooms:
Equipment:Range/Oven

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 12:01:50New Listing $885,000 2 Beds 1.00 Baths

MLS Number
07-185439
12421 preston way,los angeles, CA 90066
Area: Palms - Mar Vista
PRISTINE CORNER LOCATION, CHARMING REMODELED HOME LARGE KITCHEN OPENS TO FAMILY ROOM, DINING ROOM, LIVING ROOM W/FIREPLACE. HARDWOOD FLOORS THROUGHOUT BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED YARD. ALL OFFER THROUGH LISTING AGENT. SELLER TO CHOOSE SERVICES. BUYER/SELLER TO SPLIT CITY TAX 50/50.

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Single Family
Rooms:Breakfast Bar,Dining,Living
Equipment:Dishwasher,Garbage Disposal

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 12:13:08New Listing $700,000 3 Beds 1.00 Baths
MLS Number
07-185445
3540 redwood ave,los angeles, CA 90066
Area: Palms - Mar Vista
CLEAN AS A WHISTLE! MOVE RIGHT IN! WOOD CABINETS & DOORS. 3RD BEDROOM CAN BE USED AS DEN & OPENS TO REFRESHING COVERED PATIO. NEAR SCHOOLS. HOP,SKIP, JUMP TO MARINA & BEACH. BEST BUY IN LOWER MAR VISTA HILL AREA, NORTH OF VENICE.

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Single Family
Rooms:Patio Open
Equipment:Antenna,Ceiling Fan

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 13:43:28Active $789,000 # of Units: 4

MLS Number
07-185493
1430 w 19th st,long beach, CA 90810
Area: West L.A.

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Income
Rooms:
Equipment:None

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 14:18:27New Listing $1,195,000 5 Beds 3.50 Baths

MLS Number
07-185517
3651 tilden ave,los angeles, CA 90034
Area: Palms - Mar Vista
THIS IS THE HOUSE YOUR CLIENTS HAVE BEEN LOOKING FOR. 5 BEDROOMS, 3.5 BATHS, OVER 3,000 SQ. FT. LARGE FAMILY ROOM LEADS YOU OUT TO PRIVATE BACK YARD WITH SPA. LIVING ROOM, DINING AREA AND COOKS KITCHEN. MASSIVE MASTER SUITE PLUS 3 LARGE BEDROOMS UPSTAIRS.

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Single Family
Rooms:Breakfast Bar,Dining Area,Family,Living,Patio Covered
Equipment:Dishwasher,Dryer,Garbage Disposal,Microwave,Range/Oven,Satellite,Washer

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 15:02:14New Listing $1,059,000 3 Beds 2.00 Baths

MLS Number
07-185533
12707 marco pl,los angeles, CA 90066
Area: Palms - Mar Vista
Lovely remodeled 3 BR and office home on a quiet tucked away street South of Palms in a great neighborhood. The house features hdwd floors, central H & A, all new dual paned windows, recessed lighting & upgraded electrical panel. The kitchen features new cabinets & stainless steel appliances. The master has a walk in closet & lovely in suite bathroom. The new landscaped yard has a 5 person spa. The front walkway & driveway are beautiful interlocking pavers. This is really a gem.

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Single Family
Rooms:Den,Dining Area
Equipment:Garbage Disposal,Range/Oven,Refrigerator

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 15:11:38New Listing $1,399,000 2 Beds 2.00 Baths

MLS Number
07-185539
736 sunset ave,venice, CA 90291
Area: Venice
Brand New/Custom built. Entertain offers between $1,300,000 and up. Appraised in May 2007 for $1,600,000. Built April, 2007, sec cameras and gate, Bosh SS appl, vaulted ceilings, smooth stucco, Stained concrete floors. Open House Saturdays from 1 to 4. Sold As Is.

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Single Family
Rooms:Family,Living
Equipment:Cable,Ceiling Fan,Dishwasher,Hood Fan,Microwave,Network Wire,Range/Oven

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 16:10:11New Listing $775,000 2 Beds 1.00 Baths
MLS Number
07-185581
1825 s westgate ave,los angeles, CA 90025
Area: West L.A.
Great Fixer!!! Prime location near the 10 FRWY and the 405. Close to Markets, Shopping & Restaurants. Many Fruit Trees. Fireplace outside Patio. Across the street from Stoner Playground Park which has Tennis Courts. The house has 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. Do not bother the tenants.

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Single Family
Rooms:Breakfast,Living,Patio Covered,Other
Equipment:Range/Oven

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 16:12:28New Listing $1,189,000 3 Beds 1.50 Baths

MLS Number
07-185583
11940 mccune ave,los angeles, CA 90066
Area: Palms - Mar Vista
Beautifully renovated and completely upgraded 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Fireplace, crown molding, hardwood floors and rooms filled with light. You’ll find custom cabinets in the granite kitchen with stainless steel appliances. The bath is appointed with travertine tile, glass shower and spa tub. With the perfectly landscaped yard and sparkling swimmers pool, you’re sure to enjoy the summer here!

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Single Family
Rooms:Dining,Living
Equipment:Dishwasher,Garbage Disposal,Hood Fan,Microwave,Range/Oven,Refrigerator

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 16:59:58New Listing $1,255,000 # of Units: 4

MLS Number
07-185633
3733 s centinela ave,los angeles, CA 90066
Area: Palms - Mar Vista
Recently upgraded & well maint. 4-unit bldg. w/additional legal guest room unit is a great investment, esp. for owner user. Seller has residential loan for this property, appraised & financed as a 4-unit. Upgrades incl. new roof, new copper plumbing, new flooring, landscaping & more! 3+1 front unit has private patio, spacious 2+2 owner’s unit in back can be delivered vacant or owner may rent back. Great central location w/easy fwy access and near Venice, Culver City, UCLA, Century City & more!

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Income
Rooms:
Equipment:Other

reporteddate: 2007-05-11 19:28:32New Listing $875,000 3 Beds 2.00 Baths

MLS Number
07-185679
3779 maplewood,venice, CA 90066
Area: Palms - Mar Vista
Newly Remodeled 3BR+2Baths Home in Desirable Location! Open Living Room w/ 2 Way Fireplace into the Dining & Kitchen Area. Refinished Hardwood Floors, Updated Electrical, Copper Plumbing, New Paint Large 2Car Attached Garage (also serves as a bonus room). Wonderful Landscaping Front and Backyards w/Green House in the Back. Backyard is Very Private and Great for Entertaining.

——————————————————————————–

Property Type: Residential-Single Family
Rooms:Dining,Living,Patio Open
Equipment:Dishwasher,Range/Oven

2007-05-11 05:00 to 2007-05-12 05:12

Comment by Brad
2007-05-12 09:51:14

stop lainvestorgurl, you have me absolutely salivating

 
Comment by peter m
2007-05-12 10:35:59

TO LAInvestorgirl,
I have been thru large parts pts Venice,Mar vista, Palms, zip 90034, SM 90405. Spme of the addresss ,locations you listed might be OK but other parts i would not touch except at 50% off. One area of Venice i would be wary of is north of California to rose and from Lincoln west to abbot kinney/Main st. Only part of Venice which MIGHT be worth the current rediculous valuations is the part west of pacific ave to the beach, or area S of Venice blvd and West of abbot kinney.
The rest of this section of the WEstside is waaaay overpriced and with many spotty apt districts, especially section along Centinelia S of Washington and in large parts of zip 90034.

Comment by Misstrial
2007-05-12 11:23:21

Yeah, crime-ridden in Venice & Mar Vista.”Compton-by-the-Sea.”

~Misstrial

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by peter m
2007-05-12 12:42:10

In North Venice I once went thru Broadway st/ct right between Ca ave and rose from Lincoln westbound. The Gang-bangers, Crips were lined up along that street as if on parade. That area, known as Oakwood, had severe Gang problems,gang warfare, shootings,back in the 80’s/90’s. Is it better now?
That 1.4 for 736 sunset is absolutely nuts. Seller is looking for an absolute FB idiot to toss away that amt for a marginal area of Venice a block west of seedy Lincoln Blvd, where all the derelicks and street bums roam.
There are still plenty of FB/stupid buyers overpaying rediculous amts for SF properties in marginal parts of LA county. In LOng beach on zillow (april sales only) i saw prices for 3 or 4 bdrm/2 bath SFH’s sold for over $600,000 , and a similar property in same zip selling for under $400,000 within the same month.
Some of the most stupidist buyers on the planet seem to be LA-area purchasers.

 
Comment by Misstrial
2007-05-12 20:06:26

Sure agree with you. On Wednesdays for 3 years, I would go to Venice (2000-2003) and I can’t imagine why anyone would want to buy there or in Mar Vista. All I have been told is that things are the same or somewhat worse. The political structure and the voter profile for these areas tends to be sympathetic to certain elements. Everyone I know sends their kids to private school. The cost to do this is about $20k per year.

~Misstrial

 
Comment by cassiopeia
2007-05-12 21:23:18

Peter M., investorgirl. I totally agree with Peter re the house on Sunset. That is a BAD dangerous part of town. I have to go there about once a month and it’s not nice once the sun goes down. Wouldn’t touch it with a stick.

 
Comment by peter m
2007-05-12 22:02:11

Can’t figure out how Venice got so overpriced. All properties near the coast tend to be on tiny lots, and many of the equally compacted teeny homes/condos/apts are only accessable from sidewalks and alleyways 1 block walk from the main street.
The bubble in Venice was propbably bid up by hollywood folks who re-discovered Venice and purchased a lot of the older craftmens, restored them and turned Venice into a noveau-art hip-chic scene. This overbidding and rediculously high appraisals has to stop and get back to sane levels because Venice Is what it is: a Dense, compacted shoreline community with tiny Stacked units and lots of apts, condos, and a large marginal zone north of Venice Blvd all way to rose. Furthermore, the beach is highly inaccessable for all but the tiny % who live within 3 blocks of the beach.
Venice is in fact not a family-friendly zone, more for hip moneyed singles/young childless couples, not a good mix for maintaining stable constant property values.

 
Comment by Lionel
2007-05-13 17:54:18

Don’t forget most of Venice is built on landfill. If you want to know what it will look like after a decent sized quake, take a look at pics of the Marina in SF after their last quake. Scary.

 
 
 
Comment by desmo
2007-05-12 10:44:18

Check out the growing inventory and price decreases in W. LA:

One or two examples would be OK, more = scrolling to end of your post.

 
Comment by peter m
2007-05-12 17:19:54

“2408 abbot kinney,venice, CA 90291
Area: Venice
TRIPLEX - TOTALLY REMODELED AND DELIVERED EMPTY!!!Absolutely gorgeous triplex (3 x 1 bedroom units) on Abbot Kinney Blvd between Venice Blvd and Washington Blvd. Close to the beach and only blocks from cafes, restaurants and bars. Perfect for an owner-user or as an investment property. All new kitchens, bathrooms, bamboo floors and landscaping. A MUST-SEE!! ”

Do those units have gold-plated fixtures? I know that area and folks there are not going to pay 3,500-$4,000 per unit, which is what you have to charge to cover the monthly nut on the note. Why would anyone pay these prices when they can get a decent SHF near the coast( at least within a year) at close to the monthly rent for these units. This is a good clean area of Venice but it ain’t brentwood. Of course the owner might occupy one of the units and pay i/2 of the total nut and rent out the other two unts at 2500 each. If buyer(s)are hoping for long term appreciation they better hold on to it for 10+years. I’d lowball for no more than 1 Mil max. A ton of new rentals/apts/condos going up all over Mar Vista/Palms/Marina/venice which will lower rental rates.

 
Comment by peter m
2007-05-12 17:29:30

614 grant st,santa monica, CA 90405
Area: Santa Monica
Beautifully remodeled Ocean Park w/ city&mountain views. 1 bed 1 bath bungalow with 1 car garage + 1 parking space. Move right in! refinished floors, remolded bath, Upgraded kitchen. LR is light and bright with turn of the century windows. Lg. front yard with great areas for large decks. New sprinklers & landscape. Perfect to build your dream home. Walk to the beach, Main St. or Santa Monica Pier. Highly sought after area. Open 5/15 & 5/20.”

There is no Mt view there, but this bungalo is close to SM beachfront hotels, civic center,promenade, ect. Note: SM pier is rather ratty and the 10 fwy acts as a concrete barrier impeding access to the promenade/ SM walkable district along colorade/Broadway/SM Blvd/bluff park. This address is i block off Lincoln, a busy commercial thoroughfare with tons of vehicles, assorted pedestrians and bums walking along this rather seedy blvd at all hrs.
Bet this is a 500 sq ft former dilapidated clapboard fixer-upper given a quick upgrade and thrown on the market as a quick flip. Lots of these older smallish bungalo’s/claps in this area of SM. IS it a good location? Maybe, but not worth $899,000, and the two main cross streets, Pico and Lincoln, are a bit ratty.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-12 15:49:22

Congrats on getting out of van nuys, an accomplishment, for sure…

Is the “Rendevous” motel still on Sepulveda?

Never was a motel more appropriately named.

 
 
Comment by SeattleMoose
2007-05-12 09:08:32

“The deal appears to be an unprecedented attempt by a Wall Street house to dump its mortgage bets.”

Ya think?……”hot potato”

 
Comment by Chip
2007-05-12 09:13:57

“Though there’s no evidence other insurance companies will follow Allstate’s move, homeowner Robert Yamamoto worries they might. He lives near a weak levee and wants to have choices to keep costs down.
Robert Yamamoto Flood Zone Homeowner: “If it’s a smaller pool of companies that will issue it, potentially the prices will go up for homeowners insurance.” ”

I nominate Mr. Yamamoto for the 2007 Greenspan Team of Learned Economists. And let’s see…choices? Have you considered moving? Neighboring weak levees are not hot selling points, no matter what your friends tell you. Throw in a free Chevy and you can create a corny slogan for your sale ad.

Comment by Giacomo
2007-05-12 10:04:13

Yes, it’s foolish to live on a flood plain. But that said, I think that Allstate is likely running a PR gambit with their complaints about high housing prices and risks of natural disasters — it’s more about negotiations with the insurance commissioner over regulation. It’s a dance we’ve seen in California before.

Comment by uptown
2007-05-12 14:24:23

It’s not like they can’t sell off some of the risk to reinsurance companies. Though I can’t find a link, I remember one Re. company calling BS on insurance companies complaining about “higher risk” after Katrina.
Also, since the value of real esate in CA is mostly the land, their complaints really don’t make sense.

 
 
Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2007-05-13 09:25:23

If I ran an insurance company, I would make sure that I could make a profit. That could mean higher premiums in a state with frequent natural disasters, such as California. If the nanny gubment says “no” to higher rates, I would do the same as Allstate and close shop. Many people in earthquake areas have no insurance. They expect the federal taxpayers to subsidize their risk. Why should someone in Phoenix, with no earthquakes, no tornados, no hurricanes, no annual fires or mudslides have to subsidize the risk for homes of limousine liberal Malibu residents? I cannot figure out any justification.

 
 
Comment by mikey
2007-05-12 09:17:58

Refi by refi and slowly they turned and to their Horror, saw NO GF BEHIND them… the Horror..the Horror.
ha ha ha

Comment by phillygal
2007-05-12 10:17:32

you post some funny stuff

 
Comment by Misstrial
2007-05-12 11:25:07

Too funny! :)

~Misstrial

 
 
Comment by dimedropped
2007-05-12 09:18:06

You got it-People are giving up and also as time goes on so many are upside down that they can’t even pay a commission if they had an offer. Another factor is this. Agents have stopped taking listings. It costs a broker a lot of money and the agents are being told that if a house cannot be listed and sold then do not accept the listing. Sales are down or 40% yoy this last month and the bottom is nowhere in sight.

I owned a home for 20 years in a very upscale area called Winter Park. My ex-wife got the house and in August 2005 she could have gotten $900k if she had followed my advice and sold.

She decided to wait till this time last year. My advice went unheeded, not unusual. She listed it at $850,000 and reduced it steadily to $649,000. Three lookers and no offers. She threw in the towel last week and took it off the market.

By the time we hit ground it will be worth $450k which is where it was in 2000. Oh she did have an offer of $505,000 from a teardown builder but blew that offer off as being ridiculous. I was not so sure about that. I think she is typical in that she refuses to accept the new paradigm and that is, it ain’t different here.

Comment by Giacomo
2007-05-12 10:11:59

“Agents have stopped taking listings. It costs a broker a lot of money and the agents are being told that if a house cannot be listed and sold then do not accept the listing.”

I guess that’s possible, but is there is evidence that this is happening? I’d like to know.

In my neighborhood, there are so many realtors that a seller can always get someone to take the listing, no matter how ridiculous the wishing price.

 
Comment by desmo
2007-05-12 11:25:59

My ex-wife got the house and in August 2005 she could have gotten $900k

So many people were saying that….

 
 
Comment by mikey
2007-05-12 09:29:51

The Price of a 1st class STAMP goes up to 41 cents Tomorrow.

I wonder if some DC politican will STEP IN to save the FBs from this NEW payment hardship.

Comment by Left LA Behind
2007-05-13 12:20:02

That will make mailing those keys in that much more expensive….

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2007-05-12 09:32:08

Pinellas County, FL

Nothing that I haven’t posted several times before. The market is dead but knife-catchers are out in force for anything below $200k. A few price drops here and there, but nothing worth grabbing yet.

The “I’ve got to get out of Florida” talk is running rampant at work and social gatherings; the receding market is common knowledge now.

I’m starting to see A LOT of retail/commercial vacancies.

Comment by Muggy
2007-05-12 09:33:48

Also, many, many boats and trucks for sale. A lot of bubblesh*t toys trying to be dumped for cash.

 
 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-12 09:35:43

“More inventory?”

Inventory update: Pismo and AG (central coast Cali) had been seeing a slow but steady increase in listings on realtor.com. However, as of the first of this month, the rate of increase has gone up DRAMATICLY.

For instance:

AG SFH ‘inventory’ 4/1: 222
AG SFH ‘inventory’ 5/2: 230
AG SFH ‘inventory’ 5/9: 243

So an increase of 8 houses for the entire month of April, but an increase of 13 houses in just the past week!

Pismo SFH ‘inventory’ 4/1: 348
Pismo SFH ‘inventory’ 5/2: 373
Pismo SFH ‘inventory’ 5/9: 392

25 house increase for all of April vs. 19 house increase for just the past week.

Will this trend continue? Time will tell.

Comment by az_lender
2007-05-12 09:53:34

AG, I watched the Morro Bay inventory for eight months or so, but only the stuff under $600K. Perplexingly, the number of such listings, after remaining in the 35-40 range throughout the fall, dropped to around 30 in the winter and has stayed there. To try to understand what is happening, I am now looking at the higher price ranges as well. 15 in the 600K-700K range, 37 above 700K. The kind of stuff that’s for sale at 400K can be rented for $1500/mo FURNISHED, temporary (winter price) or $2K/mo summer. I don’t get it. Time will reveal more.

Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-12 10:19:11

Yeah, like other areas here on the central coast, we had inventory dry up some during the winter. However, at least here, south of SLO, it’s starting to build up. Last year we peaked around August or September, if I remember correctly. Right now we are running about 30% more inventory year-over-year from last year (single family houses, all price ranges).

 
 
 
Comment by Anthony
2007-05-12 09:36:14

Inventory in coastal NW California is finally rising again. After hitting nearly 800 last August, then falling back to the 520’s in March here in Humboldt county, housing inventory has risen dramatically in the past two weeks…now up to 613. And, prices are beginning to erode. Yes, there are plenty of “wish” prices still there, but there are more that are noticeably less than I’ve seen since moving here 19 months ago.

Also of interest to Californians monitoring Countrywide:

http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/

Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-12 09:52:17

Yup, our significant inventory increases started at the first of the month as well (see above post). Hmmmmm…

 
Comment by P'cola Popper
2007-05-12 10:11:08

CFC has accumulated almost 8,000 houses worth $1.5 billion in REO. The number of houses in REO has almost doubled since the begining of this year without a hint of a slow down in the growth and we all know the reset schedule kicks in this month.

What’s the chances of this pig being bought out? The buyout rumor is the only thing holding the stock price up.

Comment by ShaunT79
2007-05-12 11:16:55

Not very good. The CEO of Bank of America said yesterday there was a credit bubble that was going to burst. Unlikely he would make any big transactions before that.

Comment by Silversurfer
2007-05-12 11:45:38

Bhu..bhu.bhu..but Cramer said it was a “logical” play for Merril.

And he wouldn’t tell lies now… would he? Tell me it isn’t so!!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Misstrial
2007-05-12 11:19:28

Bookmarked. Thank you for that info Anthony.

~Misstrial

 
 
Comment by mikey
2007-05-12 09:49:57

Spoke to a Realtor that had a Open House in a older but suppousedly nice house in a Milwaukee suburb the other day. She had 7 people stop by. 2 neighbors and a few looky loos.

One of the wives of a couple looked at the TAXES on the spec sheet, handed her back and told her to FORGET IT.
They were well dressed and driving a newer Volvo.

This Realtor was still FUMING and said ” I NEVER heard of anyone NOT BUYING a house HERE because of the TAXES!”

I nearly sprayed my ice tea all over her laughing at her INDIGNATION:)

Comment by desmo
2007-05-12 11:31:15

I nearly “sprayed” my ice tea all over her

Thank goodness it was the ice tea……….

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2007-05-12 11:47:17

Good one, Mikey.

I’m thinking that there will be a lot more of those reactions as buyers wise up to the side effects of the bubble. When you’re buying for speculation, you don’t care so much because you are planning on a short holding period. When you’re buying a place that you (gasp) actually intend to live in, these things become much more important.

Insane HOA fees will be next thing to start killing resales, if they have not already.

Comment by Mystry62
2007-05-13 05:19:09

I have been to a few open houses in Westchase (Tampa, FL). As soon as I see the HOA’s fees coupled with the price & taxes, I roll my eyes and walk out. I don’t know how people ever justified paying insane HOA’s of $200+ per month.

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2007-05-13 08:18:22

Another insidious charge that I read about this morning is the so-called “transfer fee”. This charge, which is written into the deed in some places in California, can amount to up to 1.7% of the value of the house. It applies to all subsequent purchasers as well. It is basically a way for builders to pass along the cost of commitments that they made to local governments. I understand that this is different from and in addition to any Mellos-Roos charges.

Just another reason for prices to adjust downward on recent construction.

Comment by Ed
2007-05-14 05:10:35

Nevada has a 0.5% transfer tax as well. But it’s OK, the money goes for education and as long as it is for the children I am OK with that. After all the children are our most precious resource and our future.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by dennis
2007-05-13 09:55:36

RE Agents are so disconnected that they think taxes are excess disposable income.

Just cannot tolerate RE Agents!

 
 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-12 09:50:28

Another bit of news, a local developer has 10 townhomes for sale near The Village (’downtown’ AG, but we are a small town). They’ve been on the market for at least a few months (maybe more), and they had originally been listed at OVER A MILLION $ for around 2100 sq. ft.! Now we are being told that they haven’t gotten a single offer (imagine that), and a Realtor friend has told us that they would be willing to accept $650K per unit now.

I’m wondering what this builder’s burn rate is on the construction financing on these homes. It’s ten homes! I wonder what the financing bank is thinking right about now.

Another prominent local builder (SLO Bear will know who this is) decided to start building million dollar spec houses a year or two ago, and now faces foreclosure on one, if not several of them.

We’d always been told that prices would only go up here on the central coast, because “the local governments are so anti-development and everyone wants to live here, there will always be a housing shortage”. About 1/3 to 1/2 of the houses we see are vacant!

The ball is really starting to roll around here, and people are starting to see that some may get flattened.

Lastly, I personally know of three households that are at least partially in trouble because of the bubble. One household is having to live paycheck to paycheck to afford their mortgage (they worry about having the money to pay taxes and insurance as they don’t impound). One household wants to relocate, but can’t as they are under water (ie would have to bring money to the table). And one has been serially playing the HELOC slot machine to pay consumer debts and buy Christmas presents, and now it’s coming up empty. These are all educated people with “professional” jobs and a good income.

Comment by Misstrial
2007-05-12 11:35:25

Which side of the 101 would The Village be, AG? Downtown??? The only downtown worth buying in, imo, would be off the 217 north of the 101. (Trying to think….(pause)….if they are located south of the 101, then why would anyone want to pay 1M$+ for that location??? The only decent townhomes (3, unattached) that I saw being built are off the 217 going N (N of the 101) past the 3-way intersection (sorry, can’t recall the street name - near the school).

~Misstrial

~Misstrial

Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-12 16:32:03

“off the 217 north of the 101″

Yup, 227, aka East Branch St., the area of shops is called Arroyo Grande Village. The townhouses are supposedly within walking distance and have “a view”, and I’m actually going to be looking at them tonight.

Comment by Misstrial
2007-05-12 20:21:40

Sorry, 227. And I meant east/west as opposed to north/south. Sorry again, I am terrible at giving directions because I just can’t get it together regarding the n/s/e/w thing. I am a landmark person, i.e.: Where BofA is located on 227 or next to the cemetery that parallels the 101, etc.

But anyway, let us know what “view” they are advertising. There is a small creek that parallels the 227 in the Village - chickens run across the street and sometimes, one gets run over. :/ Maybe that’s the view they are referring to???

~Misstrial

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Misstrial
2007-05-12 09:55:57

Here in southern NM, prices are really not coming down much at all. Most of the new residents come from the Phoenix and Tucson areas; some from the east coast. I guess that pipeline has been cut off to a large extent due to the fact that east coasters/Californians are unable to sell, sub-primers are shut out, etc.

Other than that, I would make an educated guess that Realtors make up a measurable percentage of speculators here and are unwilling to come down much in price if at all. I am guessing that they have loans that were made in late 2005/early 2006 and the sell pressure is just not there yet. Best thing to do, imo, is just to wait. The resets are eventually going to come due.

What a lot (and I mean a lot) of newcomers like me are doing is renting instead. Renting has allowed me time to acquire a very good education on where the streets are that flood and which subdivisions get mud flows (little intelligent flood control here for rain).

2 years ago: 500 -600 homes for sale.
Now: 1500-1600 homes for sale.

~Misstrial

Comment by atlanta
2007-05-12 10:35:56

Misstrial

I own a house close to the university and am thinking of selling. My dil on her most recent visit home said there are subdivisions being put up left and right. I was amazed when she told me that on picacho where “blacks auto” was located..nothing but houses. Sad.

Comment by Misstrial
2007-05-12 11:51:41

That’s where I live: off of Hwy 70/Picacho Ave. Above the flood zone.

To give you some hope, a small subdivision (at least compared to CA, lol) was built adj to a Middle School (Motel/Picacho Ave.) No more additions to this subdivision have been built and a number of homes there are for sale. I am not a realtor, so I do not have access to the MLS, but realtor.com shows a fair number of them For Sale (88007). All of these homes (among the other older ones) are in the FEMA flood zone of the Rio Grande. All of these homeowners will have to pay for flood insurance since FEMA declared the levees to be substandard (late last year).

So, your property is on higher ground, and that is good. :)

Except for new development of Picacho Hills (custom homes, Picacho Mountain Dev., that sort of thing), there isn’t much new construction going on. The fundamentals are just not there to support it. So many vacancies in newly built homes. I went on a self-tour of homes in PH and most are vacant and staged. Some had questionable construction and there was mud on many roads due to the recent hail storm we had. I was looking in the upper 3’s to mid-6’s.One thing: I will not buy on certain streets (_Reina,
_Norte, _Turquosa, or any name with Spanish gemstone-sounding name) or developments - too much mud & evidence of flooding (sandbags). (Not mentioning street names with specifity ’cause I don’t want no letter from no lawya.) :)

I will just continue to rent.

~Misstrial

 
 
 
Comment by michael
2007-05-12 10:02:52

My coworker that sold his house recently with about a 12% drop is shopping for a house now. It took him about 9 months to sell and all it took was a $10K drop in price to bring in enough people willing to buy this spring.

He’s been in a rental for a year but the landlord apparently would like to do some renovations to deal with the recent flooding and would like him out while doing the renovations. His lease is up in a month or two so he’s been shopping with some pressure from his wife to get a home.

He’s in a town that’s in pretty high demand for housing as many foreigners with dual residences live there. People move in and out a lot too. The attraction is the school system with lots of chinese and indians moving in.

He’s got plenty of cash from his old place and other financial resources so affording a place won’t be a problem. It reminds me of Lexington, MA during the last downturn in the late 1980s. I don’t think that prices really went down; they just didn’t go up. Even as prices went down in many other places. My sister bought a place there for $220K and it’s probably worth double to triple that today.

 
Comment by sigalarm
2007-05-12 10:08:38

Here are some local observations from my neighborhood. There were 3 houses that had grown “Sold” signs in march that seemed to be a long time waiting for the signs to come down and the new owners to move in. I had wondered if they were facing problems getting financing.

I can report that all 3 of them, the signs are now down, and 2 of them have new families living in them. In addition 2 more houses that were for sale are now sporting “sold” signs on them. This is in Escondido, CA far west side- near San Marcos. The houses here are small, built in the mid 60’s and are going for the low $400K range. They are at most 1500 Square Feet, we bought ours in 97 for $116K.

My neighbor to the east has not had any showings yet, but they have been working to renovate the house before they get serious I think. New coat of paint is on the house, and they replaced the windows this week. He is a construction guy, so he and some of his friends are doing the work. Given the predilection for buyers to ignore houses that have a higher days on market, he may have wished he waited before planting that sign.

Immigrant family to the West are still holding on somehow, but everyone looks like zombies because they are working nearly every waking hours to get enough money to feed their mortgage.

 
Comment by Muggy
Comment by spike66
2007-05-12 13:59:15

Ithaca is so beautiful, but this looks like a parochial high school. No basement, no handicap access, no land…exactly who do they think is going to buy this? When the condos don’t sell, they should tear it down…it’s a blight.

 
Comment by Melsky
2007-05-12 15:34:31

What were they thinking? That looks like a warehouse or something.

Comment by zeropointzero
2007-05-13 10:34:14

Looks kind of like a Hamton Inn or Holiday Inn Express to me. Nothing wrong with those nice, dependable budget-priced motels — but not exactly what I’m looking for in a condo purchase.

Probably better looking than a lot of conversions, though.

 
 
 
Comment by Lex Talionis
2007-05-12 10:23:06

The widely advertised Lennar Realtybid (in Indio-adjacent CA) new-Mchome auction looks to be much less of a success than Lennar had hoped for.

http://realtybid.com/lennar/lennar.cfm

Out of 14 Marquesa Mcmansions only 2 have sold at “auction”. There was apparently a reserve of 390,000 on these. Where I come from that’s not an auction. They initally sold for mid 500,000 last year.

Interestingly 4 had “sold” a few days ago, but now 2 of these, including one bought by an Allen Harper, is now back on the auction block. Allen was quoted in a news article re: the action a few days ago. Without the reserve these would be selling for much, much less. Speaks volumes about the market out here.

There are also 8 condos for sale that have only a bid or two at 250,000, and retail asking price of 430,000. Talk about “perros”.

WHAT do the people who payed full price last year have to be thinking? Wow. There are still 2 days left — plenty of time for you to get in on the a(u)ction. Lol.

Comment by desmo
2007-05-12 11:41:42

There are still 2 days left — plenty of time for you to get in on the a(u)ction

Should take my 2 days just to get to Indio.(from LA)

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-13 08:30:15

“Indio-adjacent”

LMAO!

 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-05-12 10:27:36

“Jill Stone and her husband have been trying to sell their Burlington, Vermont home for a month now. ‘We’ve had a few showings, and we’ve had a few offers. But the offers are coming in lower than our listing price,’ said Stone.”

“The number of houses for sale in Vermont has about doubled in the last two years. ‘You don’t have to make an offer right away, there’s plenty on the market for people to take a look at. When we were buying 2 and half, 3 years ago, you had to make an offer that day or the house was gone,’ said Stone.”

What’s with all of the people selling their home after buying only 2 or 3 years ago? The market is just loaded with these types. I have a sneaking suspicion they are speculators who planned to live in the house the minimum two years to realize the tax free gains.

Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-12 10:50:47

“they are speculators who planned to live in the house the minimum two years to realize the tax free gains”

Yes.

You roll your dice, and you move your mice, but don’t get caught! MOUSETRAP!

 
Comment by Chip
2007-05-13 12:38:48

“‘But the offers are coming in lower than our listing price,’ said Stone.”

No kidding? That means nobody overbid, either, right? Whoa — tragic. You think the bubble might be over? Hang in there, ma’am — surely someone will offer you your listing price if you just wish and wait long enough.

 
 
Comment by Sly_Ace
2007-05-12 11:05:22

I own a number of rent houses in DFW and have the following to report:

1. Rents are stagnant. I have not even considered raising the rent on any of my properties and I have been thrilled that the tenants have been renewing. One tenant asked for a reduction of $50 per month, but agreed to my offer of one week free instead.

2. Property tax appraisals are going way up. E.g., a house in Crowley (South of Ft. Worth) was 119k last year and came in at 132k this year. One in Little Elm that I paid 145k for in 2005 came in at 168k (though I did get this one for under market when I bought it). Still, it only rents for $1,360, so I overpaid.

3. Except in Dallas County, it does not look like the property tax rate has been reduced as promised. Texas instituted an income tax (they call it a franchise tax, but it is really an income tax on certain businesses including law firms — I am an attorney) and the deal was that property taxes would go down by a third in exchange. I am not seeing this on the property tax appraisals (other than one house in Dallas County).

4. Prices for new construction are MUCH higher than they were 2-3 years ago. Although the builders are offering discounts of 15k-20k, they are still way too much. It used to be that if I hunted around I could find new construction deals in the 105k - 120k range for a 1,750 sq ft 3/2 that would rent for around 1.2k (the price was after incentives and price reduction in lieu of a realtor commission — I got a license for that reason). Now, the prices are so much more that I do not even bother looking too much anymore. For example, a house in Sherman I bought for about 105k in 2005 (discounted from about 120k) now lists on Pulte’s website for 135k. Now, I am sure I could get it for less than 135k, but it will rent for 1.2k at most, so it is not worth even considering. Houses in Little Elm are going for 40k - 60k more than they should in order to rent for 1% of purchase price.

5. Investors are mostly out of the market, or so I am told by the salespeople.

6. Lots of condos still being built in Uptown. I lived in La Tour on McKinney Ave from 1998 - 2004 and thought they were building alot back then, but they are still going strong.

In short, I was hoping that the subprime fallout would cause the builders to lower prices so I could buy something. That definitely has not happened. Also, though it is too early for this, I am not seeing the increased demand one would expect as former subprime buyers are forced to enter the rental market.

Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-12 11:59:23

“Rents are stagnant. I have not even considered raising the rent”

Same for or rental in Apple Valley, CA (high desert). For the past 2 1/2 years.

“In short, I was hoping that the subprime fallout would cause the builders to lower prices”

Our builders over here have probably been hit longer, carrying their construction loan alligators for a longer bleed cycle. Give it some time, maybe 6 to 12 months. After that, however, you’ll have to watch for the “falling knife” syndrome.

 
Comment by DeepInTheHeartOf
2007-05-12 20:02:03

The deadline to file an apprasial protest is end of the month, and I have yet to recieve this years apprasial. Looks like I need to go there in person.

Apprasial districts are indepenant of the local govt my a**…

 
Comment by Chip
2007-05-13 12:42:43

“In short, I was hoping that the subprime fallout would cause the builders to lower prices so I could buy something. That definitely has not happened.”

It just hasn’t happened there YET. It’s happening big-time in the areas in which I’m looking.

 
 
Comment by bkiddo
2007-05-12 12:17:56

http://starbulletin.com/2007/05/12/news/story04.html
Buy land in Hawaii, it’s going fast!!!!

Comment by polly
2007-05-13 12:09:45

Isn’t Hawaii one of the few places in the country where they are literally “making more land”? Personally, I wouldn’t want to live on a newly cooled lava field, but it is new land.

 
 
Comment by Jon
2007-05-12 13:54:08

Regarding Everquest: gotta say I’ve been expecting to hear news like this. Wall Street is way too exposed on CDO’s, and is looking for any way to bail out. I expect Bear Strearns to slam this junk into un-suspecting retail customer’s accounts, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the hedge funds actually BUY more of this stock when the IPO occurs. With very little float, they’ll be able to drive it up enough to generate hype, and thus pull in other unsuspecting little guys to bear the risk, and then sneak out of their own positions.

What other possible explanation could there be for playing this shell game–sell their own CDO’s to their own company in exchange for equity in the holding company. It’s a meaningless change of structure, but it lays the groundwork for moving this junk.

I’m also suspecting that eventually they’ll try to do the same routine with their CDS positions; if they can transfer the guarantees to a shell company that has insufficient reserves, and then have the company go bankrupt, they could potentially sneak out of the corner they have painted themselves into.

I wonder if someone thought it was a good joke to name this virtual reality company after a virtual reality game?

 
Comment by Bosdave
2007-05-12 13:57:22

From Massachusetts

I have noticed that higher price homes have been selling very slowly or not at all. Here are some stats for Sherborn Ma:

- 9 total sales for the first 4 months of 2007, two of which were land only valued under 350k

- No sales of properties over 750k, 51 is the current number of listings greater than 750k on Zip realty

 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2007-05-12 14:16:40

Ol’Bubba’s in a bit of a dilemma and I’d like to use you all as a sounding board.

I’m in the Charlotte, NC market and earlier today I viewed a house that I like. Really like. Charlotte did not have the run up in prices like Florida, California, and the other markets that make us shake our heads in disbelief and become addicted to reading this blog.

My dilemma? I found a house that’s priced right, with a motivated and realistic seller, and the numbers work. The asking price is approximately 2.6 times the area’s median household income, and about twice my base salary.

After checking the county real estate records, the full asking price represents a 3.7% annualized increase for the seller (2002 to 2007 total increase is about 19%). The seller strikes me as a decent fellow who looked at the market and priced accordingly. No drama.

This is a house that I can picture myself living in for many, many years. This particular property is about 14 years old, well maintained, and in a popular large subdivision that’s nearly built out (Highland Creek in north Charlotte for those of you familiar with the area). My commute to work would be about 5 miles each way.

After running the numbers (20% down payment, 30 year fixed rate mortgage, and factoring in an opportunity for the down payment capital) the monthly cost is less than the cost of renting. If I factor in the value of the tax deductions for interest and real estate taxes, it costs much less than renting.

I’m well aware of the train wrecks occurring in Florida, California, etc. I don’t know if I’ve made up my mind yet or not to place an offer on the house. From what I’ve seen in this market (a market that’s fairly in line with the fundamentals), well priced houses sell quickly (less than 30 days). This is priced aggressively to the market. From what I can gather, the seller bought in 2002 with 50% down and a 30 year mortgage. He refinanced a year later to a 15 year mortgage, which corresponds to the low point in interest rates. According to the Deed of Trust document on the county records website, he didn’t pull any equity out.

There are no realtors involved in the transaction.

One aspect of this is as an inflation hedge in the event Helicopter Ben decides to use inflation to fix the housing bubble. In that scenario, hard assets priced in line with their economic fundamentals usually do well, IMHO.

I recognize that it borders on insanity to seek comments in this blog about suggesting that it makes sense to buy a house now, but I’d be grateful for any well thought out comments. I want to think that I’ve done my homework on this one.

Thanks to all.

Ol’Bubba

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-05-12 16:35:24

Make an offer that’s 10% below current asking price. Use the excuse that you’re stretching to afford this much house and that you’ll need money for the tax and insurance escrow as well as for moving costs. He’s already saving 6%

 
Comment by tj & the bear
2007-05-12 21:27:21

Not that you need it, but you certainly have my blessing.

Sure, the price of the house *will* drop, but all things considered it sounds like you’re doing exactly what every buyer should do:

a) Buying well within your means.
b) Buying with the proper mortgage.
c) Buying a home to live in for a long time, close to work, and in a nice area.
d) Buying for less than renting.
e) Buying a home, not an “investment”.

You’re doing everything right — more power to you.

 
Comment by diemos
2007-05-12 21:40:06

If you can afford it with normal financing and it’s where you want to live for at least the next decade then go for it.

 
Comment by tj & the bear
2007-05-12 21:48:06

My prior post isn’t showing (although probably will later), but here’s my take in summary.

You’re doing everything right — more power to you!

 
Comment by ozajh
2007-05-13 01:25:56

living in for many, many years

Buy it, stop checking comps, and get on with enjoying your life there.

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-13 09:01:14

“I recognize that it borders on insanity to seek comments in this blog about suggesting that it makes sense to buy a house now”

Heh heh heh, I would assume that most of us would buy if the numbers made sense, and it seems that your numbers do. Only twice base salary for a house I could see myself living in forever? It could be time to move on with your life and buy it.

The only problem I can see is a job loss forcing you to move, but at 20% down, you’d at least have a cushion, and at only twice base salary, you should be able to build up emergency cash reserves “just in case”. Good luck!

(PS Not all of the posters on this blog are renters)

 
Comment by P'cola Popper
2007-05-13 11:40:13

Sounds like you got the kind of deal that eveyone on the blog is looking for–what’s there to say other than congratulations and good luck!

 
Comment by Chip
2007-05-13 12:48:22

The worst that can happen is that the houses loses value after you buy it. If you can live with that, buy the house; if you can’t live with that, wait. It is the exchange/opportunity cost for having a house that you really like and apparently renting is not a cost-effective option.

 
Comment by Mole Man
2007-05-13 13:18:46

Getting an independent inspector to look at a property is a must, and a good one can tell you even more than an assessor.

 
 
Comment by peter m
2007-05-12 16:47:42

“614 grant st,santa monica, CA 90405
Area: Santa Monica
Beautifully remodeled Ocean Park w/ city&mountain views. 1 bed 1 bath bungalow with 1 car garage + 1 parking space. Move right in! refinished floors, remolded bath, Upgraded kitchen. LR is light and bright with turn of the century windows. Lg. front yard with great areas for large decks. New sprinklers & landscape. Perfect to build your dream home. Walk to the beach, Main St. or Santa Monica Pier. Highly sought after area. Open 5/15 & 5/20.”

There is no Mt view there, but this bungalo is close to SM beachfront hotels, civic center,promenade, ect. Note: SM pier is rather ratty and the 10 fwy acts as a concrete barrier impeding access to the promenade/ SM walkable district along colorade/Broadway/SM Blvd/bluff park. This address is i block off Lincoln, a busy commercial thoroughfare with tons of vehicles, assorted pedestrians and bums walking along this rather seedy blvd at all hrs.
Bet this is a 500 sq ft former dilapidated clapboard fixer-upper given a quick upgrade and thrown on the market as a quick flip. Lots of these older smallish bungalo’s/claps in this area of SM. IS it a good location? Maybe, but not worth $899,000, and the two main cross streets, Pico and Lincoln, are a bit ratty.

 
Comment by LO in Nor Cal
2007-05-12 22:36:09

Haven’t finished reading this post yet so not sure if anyone has posted about Portland, Or area and just thought I would before I fall asleep.
Came up to visit grandparents for the weekend and in first hour of convo with gramps (late 80’s) he said two family members were recently laid off, one in construction and one not in RE at all. Both in 50’s. Drove by some mini downtown condo projects heading south of Portland and he said that they were “luxury condos”. Not sure of details but, it didn’t sound positive. I noticed lots and lots of furniture stores. (sure they will be closing soon like they are where i live) We went to Olive Garden, grandparents favorite, and it was Friday night at peak dinner time (6:30) and we had to wait a whole THREE mins. hahaha we were both surprised because the parking lot looked full and we were expecting a long wait. NOT!!
Anyway, have a happy mothers day to all you mothers.
good night!

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-13 08:33:09

Allstate:

“You’re in Good Hands”

Not so much.

Comment by Chip
2007-05-13 12:49:51

“You’re in Good Hands if you’re in the Right State.”

 
 
Comment by polly
2007-05-13 08:35:19

McLaughlin is bashing the main stream media and the economists on saying the economy is doing well. He has already bashed the prediction that housing would turn around this spring and pointed out the combo of lower consumer spending and higher credit card debt.

Guests are waffling.

Comment by polly
2007-05-13 08:40:36

And he just talked about the bursting of the credit bubble as if you couldn’t even question that it existed.

None of his guests did.

 
 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-05-13 08:42:21

Update on those million dollar 2100 sq ft townhomes over here…

View: View of other houses, the parking lot, the businesses of the Arroyo Grande Village, and the money shot, a sliver of the ocean and the Oceano dunes (yes a view of the dunes is considered a plus).

It’s six, not ten, and two are marked as “sold”. Word on the street is that the two “solds” were ‘bought’ by the developer, in order to allow the realtor to put “sold” signs on two of the units (word on the street is that this deceptive practice is common).

As I said, they had been for sale for about a million, now listed at $748,800, still more word on the street is that we can pick up one for 13% off that.

They are nice inside, but they have stairs going up to the front doors, stairs to go to the bedrooms, and stairs going to the garage; this in an area where retirees make up a good percentage of purchasers, and young families have been effectively priced out of the market.

Falling knife anyone?

 
Comment by asuwest2
2007-05-13 10:50:25

Saw another ad in today’s OC (CA) Register for http://www.williamsauction.com, property near my office (Placentia). Kinda cool site. Take a look at their previous sales. Seems like the barber has shown up and is giving some DAMNED expensive haircuts. Example:

CORONA, CA - 2592 MACBETH AVE –4/17 auction–$510k.
zillow shows recents (same st. & sqft)–$672k & $710k. Previous 11/06 on this one @ $576k (foreclosure?)

Lake Elsinore, CA - 32066 Baywood St–4/17 auction sale–$347k
zillow recents -$430k& $413k. Previous on this one $414k (f/c again?)
More interesting is the ‘make me move’ for some of the neighbors. Hope they haven’t spent it yet—$468k.

LET THE SPANKINGS BEGIN!

 
Comment by nhz
2007-05-13 11:04:40

just for the record, outside the US the housing bubble is still expanding. In most of Old Europe home prices climbed 7-10% over the last year (and a lot more in second home investment areas like Eastern Europe, Adriatic Sea coast etc.). Also, I just noticed that New Zealand home prices are up 13% from last year - does anyone know the details about Oz? We often hear about troubles in some (highly speculative) Oz areas like Sydney, but isn’t it strange that NZ it still doing so well then if there are serious troubles in Oz?

 
Comment by Andrew
2007-05-13 12:30:29

Take a look at this loaf. This building was a stick-built apartment complex that “went condo” just in time for the bust. For the same price, you can get a unit across the street that is in a real lowrise town center condo building, and even they are priced too high to sell well.
Oh, and the Realtor…with their silly pictures…

 
Comment by proudrenter
2007-05-13 12:53:44

Unfriggenbelievable what I just found in a local (Orlando, FL) listing for adult-ed classes. When I first saw it I thought I was viewing an old course catalog from two years ago, but this class is offered in July ‘07.

I can’t post a direct link, but here’s the main site’s link if anyone’s interested. http://www.theknowledgeshop.us/class_catalog.aspx If interested, click on “view catalog” and scroll down to page 15.

___________________________

Flipping Houses
Profiting in Fixer-Upper Houses
Without Lifting a Hammer

Would you like to join the national craze and like many others, make large profits from real estate with little or no credit,
cash, time, or risk? Have you seen the late night infomercials, but not sure how it works in Central Florida? Are you
looking for full-time pay for part-time hours? Wondering how you’ll retire when Social Security isn’t around? Then you can’t afford to wait a single day to register for this course. We will reveal to
you the insider secrets to profiting in fixer-upper houses without ever lifting a hammer! Some of the keys we’ll reveal are: where to find fixer houses, how to buy them with little or no money down (or even GET cash when you buy!), how to determine the true value of the property, and how to sell it fast at or above market value. Whether you are unemployed, underemployed, or happily employed, everyone can use extra income. Come discover how easy it can be to be financially free.

Andrea “Andy” Tolbert is an 11-year veteran in the
real estate investing and financing field. Her in depth industry
knowledge, hands on training style, and uncanny way to break down
difficult real estate concepts into easy to understand chunks make her classes the most effective real estate training series available anywhere, at any price. Let Andy put you on the bullet train to real estate riches too!

 
Comment by domi
 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post

  • The Housing Bubble Blog