Could Outflow Be Stemmed By Falling House Prices?
Readers suggested a topic around home prices and migration. “Florida migratory outflow: Could it stemmed by falling house prices?”
A reply, “Given the rate at which home prices are falling there and the reluctance of buyers to catch falling knives, I would guess the migratory outfow could be stemmed by the end of falling house prices, but not until they stop falling and everybody knows they have stopped falling.”
Another said, “I would add one slight caveat. If Florida prices reach the point where people from elsewhere can purchase for cash as ’sunk cost,’ they may be tempted to move even if prices are still falling on a ‘live here until I die’ basis.”
“I can assure you I have seen this happen in more than one coastal area of Australia. I have friends who made a move like this from my city, and paid cash at the coast 2 years back. Their only interest in house prices now is how much they’re likely to leave their kids.”
Another from Florida, “It will take a while and much lower prices to stop the flow here in South Florida. I know at least a dozen people with plans in the work to leave. The only thing that is keeping most of them here is their inability to sell their homes.”
One said, “It’s hard to say what will happen. People are sheep. Will they continue to think that they have to have a house and keep buying? Or eventually when things bottom out, will they think that real estate is always a terrible deal?”
“A lot of people took a long time to start buying stocks again after the 2000 peak (which of course is when they should have been buying.) And I remember when we bought our first house in Orange County, CA. in 1993, my in-laws, who had made a bad investment in a RE limited partnership in 1988, begged us not to buy because we would lose money.”
And lastly, “I’ve been here in So. Florida for nearly two years and it’s amazing how many people I talk to who are leaving. Just yesterday, the huz and I were at the bank and the teller said she was movin’ to Carolina as soon as her house sells. Next door neighbor’s grown kids are going, three other families on my block, about seven families from my kids’ school, many, many are desperate to move outta Florida. Most are going to Tennesee, Georgia or the Carolinas.”
The Herald Tribune. “Sarasota and Manatee counties could be facing a shortfall of nearly 12,000 workers in the next seven years or so, a study of the region’s job market projects.”
“‘You tend to lose people in their 20s. It hard to find a home and hard to find the right kind of job,’ said Richard Judy, CEO of Indianapolis-based Workforce Associates Inc. ‘And the prospect is for more of this qualitative deterioration of the work force. So a company that might expand can’t, because they can’t find the right kind of workers,’ he said.”
“‘Of 80 employees surveyed who have left jobs at CEO Mary Ruiz’s Manatee Glens, 21 said they were leaving the area. The business has been forced to return $200,000 in state money because of staffing vacancies and service cuts.”
“Ruiz said she recently wooed a candidate for a key clinical position, but after the worker looked at housing prices online, she decided against the job.”
The Wall Street Journal. “This is something few would have predicted 20 years ago. Americans are now moving out of, not into, coastal California and South Florida, and in very large numbers they’re moving out of our largest metro areas. They’re fleeing hip Boston and San Francisco, and after eight decades of moving to Washington they’re moving out.”
“The domestic outflow from these metro areas is 3.9 million people, 650,000 a year. High housing costs, high taxes, a distaste in some cases for the burgeoning immigrant populations; these are driving many Americans elsewhere.”
“There are some variations. New York had a domestic outflow of 8% and an immigrant inflow of 6%; San Francisco a whopping domestic outflow of 10% (the bursting of the tech bubble hurt) and an immigrant inflow of 7%. Miami and Washington had domestic outflows of only 2%, overshadowed by immigrant inflows of 8% and 5%, respectively.”
“The nation’s center of gravity is shifting: Dallas is now larger than San Francisco, Houston is now larger than Detroit, Atlanta is now larger than Boston, Charlotte is now larger than Milwaukee.”
I think Tennesseans, Georgians & Carolinians (?) will grow to dislike Floridian ex-pats the same way native Floridians despise the yankees.
Influx is fun until the fabric and landscape change faster than the natives ability to cope. For people in NYC this is the expectation; in the Deep South there are towns and families that have changed little or slightly in 100 years.
No chicken little claim here, but I think the next 50 years will be interesting times in the heartland.
I also posted this in the bits bucket, but “gotta get outta Florida” talk is reaching fever pitch among my colleagues and in my social circles.
I have to say everyone I know in PBC is either selling, planning to sell when they have located a new job out of state or is complaining they are “stuck” there. My wife was a teacher in one of the elementary schools in western PBC and is shocked to find out recently that most of the teachers she knew had already moved out of state (NC, GA, TN). When there are gang problems in Wellington you know it is time to “get out of Dodge”.
“When there are gang problems in Wellington you know it is time to “get out of Dodge”.
In Wellington???!!!
there is a major gang problem because there is very little to do in pbc. after the beaches and hot summers, nothing else. the schools suck and now that everyone 01-06 can buy a home if they breath, it has changed alot of areas, including wellington. it is not exclusive anymore.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there are some serious gang & crime problems brewing in Florida.
And to answer the original question: no, I don’t think a return to fundamentals will save Florida. Who wants to be rthe last one out?
One of the main reasons we moved was I saw all the illegal immigrants and said to my wife “these people are hard workers but their children are being raised in ghettos and American MTV and as LA has huge gang problems we will as well one day”. I sure didn’t want my children going to high school one day and worrying about gang bangers. Today in PBC gangs are killing each other every day by the handful. Wait 10 more years it will be much worse.
“I think there are some serious gang & crime problems brewing in Florida.”
No doubt about it, Muggy. My other comment hasn’t shown up yet, but I made mention of the traditional Easter Sunday shoot-em-up on Bradenton Beach. I also have my own personal anecdote, where I came upon a car of devil spawn wanna be gangbangers that had cornered a single girl in a car pulled over to the side of the road by a local gas station. I pulled up behind them with my cell phone and they split, but not before waving all sorts of obscene gestures at me. This was in the middle of the afternoon. I’ll never forget the terrified look on the girl’s face.
How about we have our military return from Iraq and scoop these wankstas up and dump them in Iraq instead? Let’s see how tought they are when going up against suicide bombers and Jihadists
jerry, if I’d had a ray gun, I would have vaporized those nasty excuses for human beings without a second thought. They reminded me of a pack of wolves.
“Or eventually when things bottom out, will they think that real estate is always a terrible deal?”
Yes, and that’s when you will want to buy. Not just a home for your family, but a few positive-cash-flow rentals as well.
Sacramento is having the same problems. It’s as if every lowlife from Oakland relocated to Sacramneto in the last year. They are taking over malls and closing them down (Florin Mall). Even in the formerly safe neighborhoods, everyday people are dying to stay bullets. Apparently gangbangers have no clue how to shoot.
“Apparently gangbangers have no clue how to shoot.”
They shoot just like their hand gestures, waving their splayed fingers all over the place. I hope their guns go off when they are pointing to their privates.
“Sacramento is having the same problems. It’s as if every lowlife from Oakland relocated to Sacramneto in the last year.”
As prices rose in all bubble areas, the poor folks were pushed to the less expensive areas on the outskirts of where they used to live. But, a lot of the housing they were forced out of, is vacant and for sale on the mls. Long term, the areas they left will return to their ghetto roots, and so will they.
I’m gonna come right out and say one good thing about Florida. As a former member of the USMC i decided a long time ago i would look out for myself and other innocents. How do ya do this…
Concealed Carry…
I’m just sayin…
Chris
of course, so might be the bad guys, cc’ing.
Talk about Gang problems. Go visit La Colonia in Oxnard around 9 PM wearing Chicago White Sox attire and let me know how it goes? IF you even make it out of there alive. The La Colonia Chiques gang has around 3000 members in a very small area of La Colonia.
…”of course, so might be the bad guys, cc’ing.”
Bad guys will carry concealed whether the law allows it or not. Where CC is legal, the bad guys have to be careful as they don’t know which good guys are packin’ heat.
Palmetto,
Bold move! Saved that girl’s ass — maybe her life — potentially risking your own in the process. I’ve always respected your opinions; now I respect you.
The La Colonia Chiques gang will be driven out of Oxnard over time, its too expensive there to tolerate them. Don’t they have a zero tolerance zone there? Full police patrols with frequent shootings of the gang bangers? I think west Ventura county is one area that will have less crime over time. Look what happened to Moorpark. But it will cost the taxpayers dearly. gang bangers will move inland. Probably end up in Phoenix or fresno. nice.
tj, thanks, but I was no hero. In a way, it was almost comical. I was waving my cell phone pathetically and I wasn’t even sure I could get out of my car, I was scared and my knees had turned to jelly. There were also people close by at the gas station I could probably have called to for help, but these days, you wonder if anyone would respond.
I agree with TJ.
It will be a lot harder to move to the TN, UT, TX, GA, SC, NC than most people think. First, most have to sell their houses. But more importantly, they’ve got to compete with an entire bevy of late 20/early 30-something MIT, Yale, Harvard, Columbia grads working their networks to get the higher paying jobs. It’s not the locusts they have to worry about now, it’s the job competition from a highly competent, mobile workforce. These guys are increasingly abandoning the Northeast and the West in order to raise families, and it ain’t gonna be pretty for the locals. I know from personal experience that they are bumping out local and wannabe immigrant schmucks for the better jobs (I’ve seen it happen. A recruiter flicked this Michigan manager off like a flea for a particular high level job once she caught the whiff of a Harvard grad’s resume.) Yes, there will always be clerical positions, but if they think they will grab some reasonably high level job…
so much for all the hand wringing over outsourcing….
The teaching universities in those places are still hungry for future principle investigators and adminsitrators and who know the ropes. NIH has a huge push on to find new, younger PIs. Those midwest campuses will be stealing research projects from the established places in droves once they have the infrastructure in place. This will ascerbate the migration from the coasts to the interiors.
Off the top of my head, there are only 5 Universities I would consider decent research Universities in the South: Duke, Vandy, Chapel Hill, UVa, and GaTech (Texas is not part of the South). Unfortunately, the South doesn’t have the tradition of higher education, of say the Big Ten or UC (although UC schools are in trouble), and they don’t have the supporting infrastructure that other universities have.
On the other hand, if you do go to a southern university (other than those 5, and maybe 1 or 2 I missed), your colleagues will be so unproductive, that if you blow your nose, you’ll be a local research hero. You can kick back, take life easy, have to time to smell the roses, and not work an 80 hour week.
I lived in Detroit, Buffalo, New York (live on LI, and worked in Manhattan & Queens) and No VA (for 17 years). Now a resident of TN. You could not pay me to move North! I don’t care what the salary would be!. I didn’t know what the good life was until I got to TN. Those that haven’t lived here won’t have enough life experience to even argue about, because frankly…you just don’t know what you’re talking about!. As I pointed out, I’ve lived in a lot of big Northern Cities…and well…it just ain’t the same!
I was at the bank on Wednesday in Sunrise, FL (Broward Country) rolling over a CD that was maturing. The branch manager happened to be helping me and during the course of our conversation I mentioned that I was leaving the state in 6 weeks. “Me too” she replied. She and her family are packing it up and heading up to South Carolina (all the familiar reasons…schools suck here, housing prices ridiculous, etc.). Our neighbor’s parents (long time Floridians), are having a house built in one of the Carolinas and are leaving. My neighbor on the other side’s daughter’s family is also headed to the same area….Also, my son’s best friend’s family, …. and on and on! It seems that a large percentage of middle class people that speak English as a primary language end up talking about their move or desire to move out of South (East) Florida.
I have to agree with that. I have never lived in a place where so many people I meet are miserable about living here. “Fever pitch” is spot on.
people need to get over themselves. life is change. self centeredness and egotism are highly overrated. Tennesseans, Georgians & Carolinians need to widen their gene pools, too much inbreeding in those mountain hollers.
With all due respect that is a fairly ignorant remark on your part. I have lived WNC for 4 years and I wouldn’t trade these good folks for any million dollar neighborhood in SFL ( I would know I lived there for 37 years!)
Testify, BP! The folks I know from the Carolinas are awesome people, the kind I’d love to have watching my back if I were in trouble.
Thanks palmetto, people in the South are the only group in the USA in which people can maliciously malign and not be called on for it.
I must add my two cents worth. The locals here are the salt of the earth. They’re the kind I’d like watching my back as well.
Nothin’ could be finer than to be in Carolina…”
And the relocated Yankees will ruin many areas of the Carolinas. They are already hard at work at doing this. Go to Charlotte, Raleigh and Charleston. The feel of the south is drying up quickly. The locals don’t even recognize their own environments any more. It will only get worse.
People in NC are a lot friendlier than in Miami; at the grocery store, at the office and on the road. I will eventually move back there. Miami is fun for a while, but too expensive to put up permanent residence. Jobs in Raleigh-Durham pay about the same while the cost of living is about half, especially if you want to own a house.
actually I was responding tongue-in-cheek about their being too good for Floridians, I don’t really mean to disparage NC, SC, GA,TN.
Sorry, sarcasm is hard to pick up on these posts sometime.
I didn’t get the sarcasm either, I have to admit. Although I usually get it on your posts having to do with finance.
Our favorite neighbor was a guy relocated from North Carolina. He landscaped and maintained his property beautifully, bringing N.C. pines north with him to border his lot. He had fruit trees, a grape vine, a hedge of lilacs whose fragrance drifted across a couple acres to our lot. He and my SO were planning to erect windmills across the two property lines to produce energy for both houses. But then some bad times hit both our families and all the plans were scrapped.
He was salt of the earth, though, as mentioned above.
I’ve always found that the “enlightened and tolerant” schmucks from the coasts are much more bigoted and ignorant than anyone from the hills or backwoods.
Testify, Brothah jerry! If we could billet thousands of illegals throughout their “serene” neighborhoods, forget about a border fence, there’d be a canal. But, what you don’t know about these supposedly “enlightened and tolerant schmucks” is that they are so far gone as human beings themselves, they’d hand their daughters over to gangs at the drop of hat and sit by watching and smiling and nodding, encouraging everyone to “share and play nice”.
palmetto,
everything is fine on the uppper west side, as long as all the illegals doing remodeling jobs or nannying leave at 5…you can watch the outflow towards the subway at that hour. As for the public schools, you can watch brandeis high school for a clue…all the kids are from other neighborhoods or boros (neighborhood kids are at private schools), and at 2:30, when school is out, the cops are on the subway platforms and along Amsterdam Ave. to herd the kids along and out of here…shopkeepers complained loudly about shoplifting and vandalism, and now they are just kept moving along, no stopping in the nabe.
Yeah, everything is chill here, as long as everyone knows their place.
Amen Brotha! I’d much rather live in the South or the Midwest. Life is finer and culture is easy to get to. I’ve seen far more alternative bands and big name acts when I lived in the South and Midwest compared to living on the coast.
WNC, TN, and KY is gorgeous country. I hate to think of what is going to happen to those places once the blingster consumers move in.
The one thing I do find find funny is the idea of a wannabe gangbanger moving to a place like Memphis with his family. He’ll be getting an education really fast.
Your remark is funny. You refer to another person as ignorant. Yet you have no idea of the education level or IQ level of the speaker. Nope, he is just ignorant.
Sheeple today have come to tell someone that they are “ignorant” if that person makes a remark that goes against the grain of political correctness.
Especially now if someone refers to someone else as “ghetto”, “hillbilly”, or some other description, there is always some Political Correctness person who will say that someone is “ignorant.” It doesnt matter if the description is accurate or not. The person making the description is ignorant.
People dont even consider anymore that the speaker may have a high IQ and high level of post college education.
Nope, the PC police decry that person as being ignorant. This is done to silence anyone who may speak the truth.
If you ostracize people by calling them ignorant and having other sheeple go along with you, it is a technique used to silence someone who is telling the truth.
I despise political correctness in all it’s forms and all the politically correct sheeple who make call people ignorant because that is simply a word that other sheeple use. If you are a sheeple and you call people ignorant in PC situations then you will have the safety of the herd to protect you.
Sheep talk. Thats what it is. NYCity boy, you agree?
If people can not speek freely and honestly without fear of ostacism how can we ever effectively communicate. Differences of opinion are OK and healthy. But PC people do not like differences of opinion. PC people do not think it’s ok to have freedom of speech, and freedom to communicate.
“There are only two things in this world that I hate - people who are intolerant of other peoples cultures … and the Dutch.”
I could definitely imagine buying for cash in Fla and holding property forever, but what sticks in my mind right now is the deep-water frontage community where house prices were $900K-$1M (last Nov)and the one for rent was $2500K/mo. Guess which deal I would’ve taken.
I know someone that rented a 2/2 on a Canal in St. Pete Beach for $1,200/mo.
Houses in the hood went for $750k. at peak.
I’m hanging on here in Florida and have plans to pay cash for a little old concrete block box when I can find one for under $50,000.00 in a modest but relatively safe neighborhood, suburban or rural. The only thing that would keep me on the fence if I were to find that deal right now is the illegal population, because I have seen the rapid deterioration they have brought to formerly pleasant middle class pockets in this area. If that continues, Florida really is toast and there is no hope for recovery. If gangs can have a traditional Easter shoot-em-up on the beaches of Bradenton with the police standing down, it’s over and out. God help Florida if any immigration reform passes that rewards illegals. Florida can recover from anything but that.
Palmetto old buddy one day soon we can launch the boats and be the only 2 guys on the water. Sounds good to me bro.
Testify, brothah! Maybe we could get us a couple of bulldozers and start a small business plowing under the empty, rotting developments. Keep on keepin’ on, you’re doing some great work, now is your time, dime.
The Wall Street Journal. “This is something few would have predicted 20 years ago. Americans are now moving out of, not into, coastal California and South Florida, and in very large numbers they’re moving out of our largest metro areas. They’re fleeing hip Boston and San Francisco, and after eight decades of moving to Washington they’re moving out.”
How many people are moving to Florida a day???
I guess these speculators bought the stocks (houses) thinking they would go higher to only find out we aren’t working on a totally new economic model. The stocks (houses) are dropping in price. Can you say stock (housing) market crash?
Ben, can we hire David Lereah to spin the RE news the other way. God only knows his job would be so easy now.
In my opinion, this state does not have a future unless it returns to what it once was–a slow-paced, semi-populated, swampy agricultural backwater. I don’t think the outmigration can be reversed, I don’t think retiring boomers are coming to save us, and I don’t think housing prices ever will be as high in real terms as they were in the summer of 2005.
The quality of life here has deteriorated significantly in just the last five years. I lack the words to explain just how discouraging it is to sit in heavy traffic, in what used to be an orange grove or pastureland, and see nothing but neon lights, anomie-inducing subdivisions, chain restaurants, and ugly concrete sprawl as far as the eye can see.
I used to tell all my friends that they needed to move here. I don’t say that anymore. I still like it, and my wife does too, but we both know that there will come a day when we leave.
San Francisco has the dubious honor of being the most segregated public school system of any city in the entire USA. Less than 1/4 of 1 percent of students in public schools there are “white” .. And if you measure the ranking based on students after the fifth grade, there are literally ZERO percent white students. (eventually, the parents give up when their children are physically assaulted)
I find it side-splitting hilarious that the most liberal city in the nation has the most racially segregated schools. I guess they’re all for affirmative action, except when they have to sit next to a hispanic or black kid.
BTW- all the wealthy parents in san francisco send their children to school in Marin County just across the golden gate bridge.
They are taking affirmative action all right, they’re sending their kids to the good schools over in Marin. This is quite typical - every week it seems that I read about a liberal politician supporting the status quo at public schools while sending their own children to private schools. The thing is, they don’t dare oppose the teacher’s unions because that’s where a lot of their votes and
bribescontributions come from.Watch what they do, not what they say.
People are just a concept to the average guilty white liberal. At least the good old boy southerner with the Dixie flag on his truck is honest about how he feels. Try getting that from the elites. Good luck!
That post came straight from the world of right-wing talk radio, which is the only place where guilty white liberals exist. And how many “good old boy southerners with Dixie flags on their trucks” do you know? I’m guessing not very many.
I went to high school in Huntsville, Alabama and Winter Garden, Florida (outside of Orlando) and I can absolutely state without any hesitation at all that central Florida was the most racist, redneck place I was ever in. I’ve known a few ‘good old boys’ and my experience is that unless you are one you won’t like them. Give me a liberal anyday.
People are just a concept? That is just, like, your opinion, man.
There are always different way of seeing and approaching problems. Keep in mind that both sides of this, to the extent this social conflict really exists in a meaningful sense, have played key roles in the Great Sort. Sensitive types in the South work their way to Coastal Universities. Good old boys might migrate from the North to the Midwest, or from there to the South. Both have their strengths and weaknesses. What is going on with the schools, for example, is very complicated. The basic system is sufficiently broken that even “good” schools are unhealthy environments where little learning goes on, so a lot of the complaining is about how to fix an approach that isn’t really working.
I thought they all went to the french American school? SF has anincredibly low percentage of children in it’s population mix.
As an aside, we had a joke when I lived in SF.
“How can you tell if a building is a school in SF?”
“Because SF has no prisons”.
I thought everyone was gay in SF and that’s why they didn’t need a school system since they “don’t have kids”.
say what?
Former Floridian who knows a number of people who want to get out. I left right before the market tanked and made out pretty well.
I left because I was let go at work and knew I couldn’t find a comparable job. Only came to Florida because of the job. Would never have lived there for any other reason.
All the friends I know who want to leave, know they are stuck and also know they will probably never get what they could have gotten for their houses two years ago.
And they all want to go to the Carolinas because houses are still “cheap” there.
I wonder how long it will take for people to realise that the cost of housing is very much related to the job market/salaries etc. (well it used to be in most places) and moving somewhere because it’s cheap isn’t always a good idea.
All the flippers were originally attracted to Florida because it was considered to be inexpensive. Not the case anymore. All the buying pushed the housing prices through the roof, thus increasing insurance costs and taxes making it too expensive for the average person.
All our moving around, forcing new infastructure and homes to be built over and over in other places is totally wasteful.
One said, “It’s hard to say what will happen. People are sheep. Will they continue to think that they have to have a house and keep buying? Or eventually when things bottom out, will they think that real estate is always a terrible deal?”
- Yes, people are sheep. But the eventual realization that their low paying job can not support the American dream begins to dominate their life style at some point.
From Marketwatch:
Moving a mountain
Cooling housing markets make job candidates reluctant to relocate
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:02 AM ET May 11, 2007
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Convincing job candidates to relocate can be a challenge even when the housing market is strong. But with homes in many markets around the country taking longer to sell and prices either flat or declining, employees being asked to relocate are starting to balk in greater numbers.
“If you’re in a market where prices have declined significantly, that’s a huge challenge for folks who bought at the top of the market,” said Kathy Morris, director of global consulting for Prudential Relocation.
http://tinyurl.com/2hzdhp
The Univ of CA system, it’s not selling the old house that’s killing them. It’s affording the new house here. Even with all the incentives recruits are given, most find teaching positions elsewhere. It’s gotten to the point that faculty at UCD are telling their post-docs to get out of CA as soon as they can.
The incentives only go so far: it’s also the salary. Keep in mind that all of the UC schools use the same pay ladder (although there is some give, and you might be able to start a step or two higher at some schools). I remember a year or so ago seeing an ad for UC Santa Cruz, and it’s the only ad I’ve seen that actually mentioned salary. I was shocked, as the salary was $10-$15k less than the starting salary of an assistant professor in a Big 10 school.
Sorry, but things are stacked against the UC schools. It may be warmer, but it’s also far more crowded and far more expensive. I’ll take Ann Arbor, Columbus, or Champaign any day over UCSD.
…On the other hand, if house prices plunge, and salaries rise considerably to reflect a coastal premium, then UC schools might be competetive again. But right now, they’re having problems hiring (and keeping) good people.
That’s actually good news for me. I’m of those Floridians that is tired of living here and will be looking to move shortly. I have a great job, but I’ve hit the ceiling at my company and will need to switch jobs to continue to advance.
Luckily, I sold my home at the top of the in early 2005 and have renting ever since. So, that’s another advantage of renting versus buying — it makes me MUCH more mobile than a homeower.
If others are reluctant or unable to move and I am willing to move virtually anywhere in the U.S., then I guess my job search should be a little easier than otherwise. I just hope the economy holds up a little longer.
BTW- my parents owned some farmland in North Carolina and sold it for 17 million dollars this past August. 240 acres of land that they originally bought for 500 dollars an acre 30 years ago.
Me and my brother told them to not worry about inheritance- I want them to live like kings and travel the globe doing whatever they please. I told them if there is any money left over when they die in 20 years or so, to give it to charity.
Thank god for stupid california and florida investors.
Lemme know when th investors want to sell it back at $500.00 an acre, I’ll buy.
Don’t forget, they are the worldly ones and you are the country bumpkins. Only a well-educated person would get in a bidding war for a 2 bedroom shack in Compton and end up paying $600K for the privilege of living next to a crackhouse.
The feeling in GA is very positive toward FL refugees; the feeling is that they will be assets to the communities because they are looking for the kind of life they used to have in Florida and can still have here. Sorry to destroy anyone’s illusions….
There are a LOT of them, though. I think Florida’s going to have a recession and GA is going to have a little boom; you can’t have so many people of this quality leaving a state without the economy really hurting. It will probably be very good for TN and the Carolinas too!
“you can’t have so many people of this quality leaving a state without the economy really hurting.”
Exactly, MaxedOut. This is going to be a hard lesson learned for the dorks in Tallahassee. Who is going to pay for all the free education, health care and housing for the illegals? Where are they going to get the funding for all their pet projects? California has, over the years, had high paying jobs so that many folks were willing to hang on and put up with the socialization of the state. But high wages have never existed in Florida, so people just leave, looking for where they can have the same low cost of living lifestyle.
That sounds like denial. The obvious reason that California maintains such high paying salaries and lifestyles is that the weaker people and industries are constantly being flushed away.
You talk about socialization of the state, but many of the people you are talking about get taxes deducted from their paychecks without ever anything back because they cannot legally file. The services they drain are meager, and their communities tend to be underserviced in terms of road conditions and other basics.
Your anger over immigration just doesn’t ring true. If you were really upset then you would want the process reformed so it didn’t take an average of ten years. A lot of this problem is manufactured by our own incompetence, but you always focus on the scared of weirdos angle. I guess I have to admit that I’d be really hesitant to live amongst Scots because of their culture.
The services they drain are meager,…
Try telling that to the L.A. county hospital system.
That sounds like denial. The obvious reason that California maintains such high paying salaries and lifestyles is that the weaker people and industries are constantly being flushed away.
Yes maybe so, and the ones not flushed out are stressed out and/or wheeler dealers ready to sell you a great Home equity loan or investment property in AZ.
We sold out and moved away from Pasadena (L.A. County) CA last year. Fortunately, it proved to be good timing, financially, but our real impetus to get out was a dramatic erosion in the quality of life there. Just in the past 5 years we noticed a huge jump in the immigrant population, invasion of “big box” retail, and rapid development of high-density housing, with little provision for dealing with increased traffic and crime. There was a huge push by some council members to bring the NFL to the Rose Bowl, in a misguided effort to raise revenues.
Some will likely thrive in this environment, but we knew we could not. Most all of our old neighbors seemed to have a long-term plan (wish?) to get out.
I’m not suprised people are leaving those coastal areas. But really, except for its coastal areas, California today has very little to recommend it.
Living near the coast, and the opportunity to make a lot of money are the only things that keep me here.
The weather at the coast is nearly perfect most of the time, cool in the summer and warm in the winter. I can save well over 50% of my net income by watching my spending. And it would be difficult to match the income anywhere else.
Of course, if the coast turns into a third-world slum, I’m gone. But it hasn’t happened yet.
“Of course, if the coast turns into a third-world slum, I’m gone”
Has that happened in Oceanside?
I don’t know - haven’t been anywhere near Oceanside in years.
But really, except for its coastal areas, California today has very little to recommend it.
Even the coast sucks, IMO.
Just when the weather starts to warm up, the coastal areas typically experience an increase in fog.
In the coastal areas of California the only people who seem to be moving out are educated middle income Americans. Uneducated, unskilled illegals continue to pour into the area, living 3 families in one bedroom apartments, no health care, no nothin’.
This state and this country have been warned for years about the disaster happening to California. Nothing, and I mean zip, has been done to stem the flood.
As a conservative Republican I place the blame on George Bush. What a loser that guy has turned out to be.
“What a loser that guy has turned out to be.”
Testify, Clearview! Complete, utter failure.
While I don’t disagree with your last sentence, I do with your second to last sentence.
When was the last time Californians and Arizonans held an American flag waving “we don’t hate you, but you need to leave” march on your state capitals?
The first step is admitting you have a problem.
It is about the jobs. Fire up that database that we’re “supposed” to be using to verify citizenship for employment, then start tossing HUGE fines at any company caught hiring illegals.
It is about the jobs. Take away the jobs and they’ll go home on their own.
I agree. Also, take away the housing bubble and even MORE jobs go away for illegals.
I’ve made a comment below about this migration issue being a “grass is greener” issue. The problem isn’t contained to coastal California and Florida. I think people are fooling themselves that moving is the solution.
Without this bubble and the jobs that were created to support it, the reasons that people are using to move (high prices, loss of neighborhood stability to illegals) go away.
“I think people are fooling themselves that moving is the solution.”
I tend to agree, although I’d like to see the bubble go away and then re-evaluate. Bubble or not, illegals will remain a problem unless something very draconian is done. I’ve been watching the AG testify to Congress and talking about travelling to Latin America to meet with law enforcement regarding the gang problem. That was chilling, because it portends to me that the NAU/SPP is in force and I am afraid I am not going to enjoy a peaceful retirement, but feel I am facing the very real possibility that I will have to move these aging bones in defense of my country.
“Without this bubble and the jobs that were created to support it, the reasons that people are using to move (high prices, loss of neighborhood stability to illegals) go away.”
I tend to agree with that, too. While I’ve got one foot out the door, the other remains planted “in” and I’m watching closely to see what comes of the bust. A part that is vital, and that I’m not seeing, is government commitment to reduced spending — getting us back the the level of several years ago.
Great post, Chip. I’m in the same boat, waiting to see what the end result of the housing bust is. Reduced spending is key. It seems to me that, beyond a certain point, the more government spending, the greater the decline in conditions. On a macro level, the current administration has spent into the stratosphere and beyond. And look what we’ve gotten for it: a government in shambles, a decimated national defense and a country in serious decline.
The govt won’t do anything, but the citizens can. Cut back on consumption of services and do things for yourself: housecleaing, gardening, cooking, growing food if you have a yard etc. Then the illegals will go away and Calif. will look like it did in the 60’s.
Three families in a one bedroom apartment? This is a code violation in that area, I am sure. What have you done to report this? If reports are not taken and being followed up, then what are you doing to insure that they are? Your tax dollars are supposed to cover this kind of basic enforcement.
Oddly enough, where I am the citizens are around 60% Mexicans and this sort of thing is not tolerated. The local municipal authorities have seen to it that dealing with this is a priority. The local code enforcers, sheriff, fire deputy, who are almost all second or third generation Mexicans, have repeatedly busted and cleaned out this kind of code violation after investigating even vague anonymous reports. Some of this has to do with the huge difference between first and later generations of immigrants, but in general the whole issue is much more complex than illegals and immigrants being a problem.
As a critical thinking American I say that we have primarily ourselves to blame for what goes on in our communities.
3 families in a one bedroom apartment is a common occurrence in Santa Barbara. So are garage conversions, thousands of them.
Local, state and federal law enforcment does nothing. I’ve complained about illegals living in Section 8 housing, which violates federal law. Nothing happens. Hundreds of complaints are filed with local law enforcement about garage conversions, with 10-15 illegals living in a garage, heating and cooking with open wood fires. Nothing happens.
It’s been said many times here- California is going downhill fast. Nobody cares.
“There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root.”
Henry David Thoreau
Absolutely OT,
from OCRegister Blog Q&A with INDYMAC, one of the question and answer’s in regards to reserves(link’d thru Implode-OMeter).
Q. I understand from the first quarter conference call the company is moving from market-to-market accounting to portfolio accounting. Please elaborate on why it’s doing this. If nonperforming loans are held longer on your books amid a housing correction, won’t they just cost the company more in the long run?
A. No, we have not changed our accounting methods. In accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, held for sale loans are accounted for at lower of cost or market value (LOCOM). The fair market value of delinquent loans is less than cost, and accordingly, we have marked those loans down to their lower market values. However, the fair market value of the performing loans is above cost, and therefore those loans are held at the lower cost value.
WOW, values are up or holding on the defaulted properties they now hold? As reserves are falling? “Look’s like were in a lil bit of a pickle, Dick”
I live just west of Philadelphia. My business partner, a long-time resident, says the city has been losing population for quite awhile (this was said a couple of years ago - not sure if it is still the case). Well, you would never know it based on the multiple condo towers going up, like cheap-ass skeletons blighting the otherwise ho-hum skyline. How they think they are going to fill these ratboxes is beyond me. I’m just waiting for some local polistocrat to start ringing the bailout bell. Somebody around here is going to take it deep in the ass, but as with everywhere else, just who is not clear.
This whole migration issue seems like a huge case of “the grass is greener” syndrome.
And if real estate had mostly tracked inflation (with some traditional premium for “prime” areas) the last 5 years, would we even be having this discussion?
Yes. Yes we would.
It isn’t just about housing.
It is about the huge drain they put on society. They show up at the energency room without insurance. It is impossible to get into the emergency room without an hour wait, and hospitals refuse to add staff because the emergency room is a huge money loser because of the illegals. They are in a race to see who can create the longest wait in hopes the illegals will go to a different hospital.
They drive wihout insurance, so even if they hit you, your insurance pays, so your rates go up.
It costs much more to educate a student that shows up at school not speaking english.
They have undercut salaries in a large number of industries, including construction, meat packing, and warehousing.
Crime follows them, largly from people praying on them, but that is still crime that costs the tax payers.
There are lots of probelms alowing a poor, largly undereducated, illegal population to come in to live and work under the radar.
It is about the jobs. Take away the jobs, and they’ll leave on their own.
On the upside, this does give us quite a bit of potential room in the system for the economy to slide without high unemployment. As U.S. citizens are let go, we tightening down the screws on the illegals.
LOL. Darrell, see my explanation of my comment above. Seems we’re alternatively responding to each other.
My point was, if the housing bubble hadn’t happened, perhaps we wouldn’t have had as large an influx of illegals, and the need for people to migrate to escape prices and illegals.
ahhhh I see. They came for the construction jobs, landscaping jobs, home improvement jobs, etc. Without those jobs they wouldn’t have come. Is that your point?
Yep.
And my original point was about migration of Americans. That people are uprooting their entire lives to move to places that have the same problems, if they really stop to take a look.
With the coming decline of high housing prices and the jobs that came with it, illegals (I hope) will return home as you stated.
And the reasons people have used to move also go away.
Take away the jobs, and they’ll leave on their own.
They might. I wouldn’t count on it though.
Things are in such a state of flux–reason enough to rent. i think it’s hard to say what areas might be attractive–until issues like property taxes are sorted out. Fla. folks moving to the Carolinas might work out really well, but not if illegals follow suit, and drive up the costs for citizens. I understand needing to get out of CA or FLA if you’re getting squeezed, but for myself, I’m waiting. I’d like to buy a tiny place with an acre or so, away from nyc, but until can I see what the costs, quality of life and the population mix is, I’m doing nothing.
mnmnbmbn
The Wall Street Journal. “This is something few would have predicted 20 years ago. Americans are now moving out of, not into, coastal California and South Florida, and in very large numbers they’re moving out of our largest metro areas. They’re fleeing hip Boston and San Francisco, and after eight decades of moving to Washington they’re moving out.”
One more thing to add to the list of unintended consequences from the bull run up in prices. How many of the people now boo hooing the losses of neighbors, employees and clients were cheerleaders for housing prices skyrocketing before the bubble burst?
What amazes me to no end is how absolutely accurate the posters on this blog predicted each and every stage of this train wreck. Amazing.
“What amazes me to no end is how absolutely accurate the posters on this blog predicted each and every stage of this train wreck. Amazing.”
Ditto. It continues to remind me of the TV show, “Early Edition.”
In the end, it might turn out well that we had so little influence on those who believed RE only goes up. Had we, the banksters might have had reason to find a way to silence blogs like Ben’s in the future. For those who would fleece us, free speech is OK so long as not too many people hear it.
It is about the jobs. Fire up that database that we’re “supposed” to be using to verify citizenship for employment, then start tossing HUGE fines at any company caught hiring illegals.
——————————————————————————–
Exactly! I’m amazed that more people don’t get this simple concept. If you made hiring an illegal a FELONY crime punishable by a mandatory 5 years in jail (1st offense), the illegal immigration problem would go away overnight!
The problem is, so would your economy!
Baloney. Every other industrial country gets by just fine without a massive illegal work force. Yes lots of them get workers from abroad - legal immigrants in Canada and Australia, “guest workers” in Germany and Switzerland, EU migrants in the UK and Ireland, etc. All work legally and pay their fair share of taxes, etc.
When are Americans going to wake up and realize that mass illegal immigration is yet another weapon by the PTB to destroy the rule of law and the US middle class? WHO owns Wal-Mart and all the other companies that hire illegals? WHICH party do these people support?
The executive branch - that means you know who - has the full legal power, right now, to deport anyone who is not a US citizen or legal permanent resident, without any charge or trial. WHY is this power not being used?
“the illegal immigration problem would go away overnight!
The problem is, so would your economy!”
BS and LMAO! The US has had an economy for over two centuries withouth illegals. ROTFLMAO! The only “economy” that would collapse is that of corporations profiting from slave labor while dumping illegals on the taxpayers for health care, education and increased costs of law enforcement. Oh, and the homebuilders. What ever would we do without all those shoddy houses built by illegal labor? How did we get along without those houses before? How did we get along without the divisiveness and social unrest?
who’s going to do it? big companies, just gave your our senators millions in “campaign contributions” (read– legalized corruption) to look the other way.