May 16, 2007

Looking For “Steep Discounts” In Florida

The Tampa Bay Business Journal reports from Florida. “In first quarter 2007, Florida’s housing sector continued to mirror the national pattern, with higher inventory levels of homes for sale, median prices edging down and soft sales reflecting a buyer’s market in many areas. In Tampa Bay, sales dropped 37 percent from the first quarter last year, while the average price of homes fell 2 percent, to $212,200 from $217,300.”

“Homeowners have given up all of the gains achieved in 2006 and are now falling back to the fall of 2005 for comparable prices.”

The St Petersburg Times. “More downbeat news from the Tampa Bay area housing market. The messenger is the Florida Association of Realtors. Condos go for $171,900 this year vs. $177,800 last year. A glut on the market, 40, 000 homes and counting, could suppress prices further.”

“Tampa Bay area home sales are sluggish, but one type of property is turning over faster than it has in years: realty offices.” “With half as many homes selling this year as during the boom in 2005, Realtors are closing, selling or consolidating their physical property.”

“Thanks in part to high property taxes on second and vacation homes, beachfront property has taken a pounding, and so have Realtors on the coast. One of the most successful, Sand Key Realty Sales and Rental, closed one of its three offices, the one in Indian Rocks Beach.”

“‘To maximize profits, you have to cut some of your losses,’ owner Jim Robbins said. ‘We’re still doing $6-million to $7-million in sales a month. It’s just not the $15-million we used to do.’”

“The culprit is home sales that have plunged from their record-setting peaks of 2005. In Pinellas, Hillsborough and Pasco counties, Realtors sold 2, 488 houses and condominiums last month. That compares with 4,998 sales in April 2005 and 3,783 last April.”

The Palm Beach Post. “The number of homeowners falling behind on their mortgages nearly quadrupled in St. Lucie County last month compared with a year ago, RealtyTrac said Tuesday. Florida had the second-highest number of filings in the nation with a total of 14,318 households entering some stage of foreclosure last month.”

“‘I know that banks are pleading to take properties off their hands even before they get to their REO (real-estate-owned) department,’ said Delray Beach luxury homebuilder Frank McKinney. ‘Twenty years ago, we sat on the courthouse steps and bid on properties and bought them.’”

“That’s no longer happening, McKinney said, ‘which shows me this huge flood of foreclosures will continue to hit South Florida well into next year.’”

“Depreciating home prices make it hard for owners facing foreclosure to sell their houses for what they owe, while tighter lending standards make it hard for potential buyers to qualify for a loan.”

“In Palm Beach County, the median price of an existing home fell 4 percent in the first quarter compared with the first quarter of 2006, the Florida Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Sales dropped 20 percent, a troubling double-digit decline in what many had hoped would be a successful spring selling season.”

“‘Walk into any…Best Buy or Circuit City and ask them about sales of big-screen TVs and computers,’ said Mike Morgan, broker in Stuart. ‘Boats, cars, clothing, jewelry and more,’ he said, ticking off big-ticket items that debt-plagued homeowners can no longer afford.”

“‘The housing ATM is out of money,’ he said.”

The Herald Tribune. “(Sarasota County) will lay off 26 workers in its building department today because of a declining real estate market and expectations that state lawmakers will soon cut local tax revenues.”

“The layoffs are ‘a precursor of the type of things to come,’ according to County Administrator Jim Ley, who last month announced a ’soft’ hiring freeze and temporarily halted plans to expand the county’s fire department and public transportation service.”

“County officials say the building department layoffs are tied more to the real estate slowdown than to expected cuts in local property taxes. The county left open the likelihood of more layoffs.”

“Manatee County’s building department is financed by builder fees, which have declined significantly, said County Administrator Ed Hunzeker. The same goes for Charlotte County. The number of building permits issued by Sarasota County was down 65 percent during the first three months of the year.”

“A trio of reports on Tuesday showed that the future of Southwest Florida’s real estate market remains murky even among signs that it is outperforming most of the Sunshine State.”

“During the first three months of 2007, the area posted a 6 percent rise in sales compared with the year-ago period, the state’s only market in positive territory.”

“Its median sales price, however, dropped 12 percent to $290,500. That was the state’s biggest percentage decline aside from Charlotte County-North Port, which saw a 13 percent drop to $197,300. Sales there declined 16 percent.”

“Sarasota County’s foreclosure rate is double what it was a year ago and was 54 percent higher in April. Manatee County had 222 new foreclosures, up 34.5 percent from March.”

The Bradenton Herald. “The Bradenton-Sarasota housing market was the only one in Florida to experience an increase in sales in the first quarter of the year, compared to the same quarter last year.”

“In contrast, sales in neighboring markets like Fort Myers (were) down 35 percent; and Naples was down 30 percent. Statewide, sales were down 26 percent.”

“‘It’s all relative because our sales were so dismal, the only direction they could go was up,’ said Dan Forbes, broker in Bradenton.”

“Re/Max Gulfstream’s Ken Miller was a little leery about calling Tuesday’s figures the first step toward full recovery. ‘No one can speak from experience about where we are now, but I don’t think you’re going to see any big change until mid-2008,’ Miller said.”

“He agreed the increase in sales was a good thing but says coming off an unprecedented boom makes it even more difficult than usual to predict the path the market will take.”

“Those looking to buy a home under $200,000 have a chance now that was unheard of just a year ago, said May Aston, president of the Manatee Association of Realtors. ‘There are quite a few decent homes under $200,000. Last year, if someone were to ask me for a home under $200,000, I couldn’t have found one,’ Aston said.”

“Those who are buying are looking for deals, experts said. ‘For the true, seasoned investor, it doesn’t matter if it’s a buyer or seller’s market, they are looking,’ Forbes said.”

“And what are they looking for? ‘Steep discounts,’ Forbes said.”

“Miller agreed. He finds that buyers and sellers are at a standoff, with buyers expecting sellers to cut prices tremendously and sellers expecting to get unrealistic amounts of money in the current market situation.”

“During the height of the real estate boom, there was only a 1.7-month supply of homes on the market, but as speculators and other sellers scurried to get out of their homes, that number skyrocketed to more than a 10-month supply.”

“‘If the home was purchased before 2004, they are a little more realistic when it comes to listing price,’ Miller said.”




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153 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-05-16 05:57:57

‘A Cape Coral agency has money to help people facing foreclosure notices. Lee County could have plans to do the same by end of June. Residents with higher incomes who took loans with adjustable mortgage rates and interest-only loans probably don’t qualify for help, said Timberlake.’

‘The county registered 783 foreclosure notices last month, with 343 in Cape Coral. Last year, there were 131 in the city and rest of the county in that same month. ‘We are aware of the problem and are talking about a strategy to help,’ said Gloria Sajgo, a Lee County planner.’

‘The number of people who didn’t pay their 2006 bill on time increased significantly in Volusia and Flagler counties. The number of unpaid tax bills rose 39 percent in Flagler and 13 percent in Volusia in the last year.’

‘As the student population continues to decline in Broward County, school officials are presented with a dilemma: Do they need to build more schools? School district officials say they may not have to spend $38 million budgeted for a new elementary school in Sunrise after projections show nearby schools may not need relief. The same goes for Hollywood, where a $34 million school proposed to relieve Hollywood Central Elementary seems unnecessary.’

‘District demographers estimate more than 4,000 students will not come back next year. Already, Broward schools lost about 8,000 children this year, and projections don’t show an increase in student population until at least 2011.’

‘I attribute the decline to what everybody else is attributing the decline to, and that is economics,’ said Jill Young, whose department is charged with producing the district’s population estimates.’

‘PORT ST. LUCIE — The city is poised to buy up practically all of those lots fronting Becker Road, 224 to be specific, to widen it to four lanes. Some owners will make thousands, others could lose more than they paid if they bought at the height of the housing boom. Two city property appraisers pegged the values mostly between $47,000-$55,000 per vacant lot. Some people paid more than $100,000 at the height of the housing boom. Lot owners have paid as little as $1,900 and as much as $255,000 for a vacant lot.’

Comment by palmetto
2007-05-16 07:05:05

“Two city property appraisers pegged the values mostly between $47,000-$55,000 per vacant lot. Some people paid more than $100,000 at the height of the housing boom.”

Yes, well, here’s where the BS starts. I hope all property owners in the city watch this like a hawk. Because it will be interesting to see the games the appraisers play. I’ll bet that as long as they didn’t need the property, it was on the books for tax assessing purposes at outrageous valuations. But when eminent domain kicks in, all of a sudden, property in Port St. Lucie is worth squat. This could be good for all property owners in the area who are in need of property tax relief. By the way, in Florida, if you have to go to court to contest a taking by eminent domain, the governmental entity doing the taking has to pay your attorney.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-05-16 08:00:39

If the govt. loses, that is.

Comment by essessemm
2007-05-16 08:17:42

Nope. The must cover the cost of your attorney/appraiser/any other professional you use to dispute their number.

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Comment by essessemm
2007-05-16 08:18:06

Nope. They must cover the cost of your attorney/appraiser/any other professional you use to dispute their number.

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Comment by LastTimeRenter
2007-05-16 08:07:52

Brothers and Sisters,

I almost have sinned. Here in Fairfax City (Virginia) I made an offer of 400K for a 425K house and not bulging for the counter offer of 405K (it was 390K vs 415K counter, then 400K vs 405K counter). I have been renting for so long so my buying itch is hard to contain. I can afford to go higher but I don’t want to…PLEASE lend me strength so I can wait a bit longer. Also what is the url for that website which tracks the major housing trends (url is on home’s computer).

Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-16 10:03:42

Sounds like you want to be the king of pain…

 
Comment by dougie944
2007-05-16 12:43:18

Buying a house right now is obviously the wrong move and yet you still want to do it. I can’t understand that feeling.

Why don’t you take out $5000 in cash from your bank, burn it and see how that feels. Try and multiply that feeling by 20 or 30. That, if done properly, will only cost you $5000…..a real bargain compared to purchasing that house.

 
Comment by Chip
2007-05-16 13:11:40

Last — that is not much of a discount — 6% even if you get your price. Unless the seller priced low to get rid of the place (in which case he logically would have taken your offer), you very likely are not getting a good deal at all, IMO and without access to the comps.

Sticking at $5,000 — your seller either has too much ego in his price or is getting bad advice. Even if he is underwater, he should be able to hock something for that amount.

Were I offer on anything right now, the discount would start at a minimum of 20% off normal wishing price and that would be for a hot-damn house.

You didn’t explain why you are not near your home computer.

Comment by HK_Vol
2007-05-17 01:51:00

Two questions:
1 - How much are you offering to pay per square foot?
2 - What would a similar home rent for? Compare the rent to the cost of a 30-year fixed mortgage + taxes + insurance. If you want to be safe, add another $4,000 a year for “general maintenance.” If the numbers a pretty much the same, then you can probably buy without too much sweat. If the rent is significantly lower, continue to rent and save/invest the monthly difference. You’ll come out ahead.

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Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 06:03:32

“Homeowners have given up all of the gains achieved in 2006 and are now falling back to the fall of 2005 for comparable prices.”

What gains in 2006?

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-05-16 06:05:42

Those illusory median gains, I suppose.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 06:09:56

“Those illusory median gains, I suppose.”

I said it before, when I have $350,000 to pay for a house (I don’t by the way) I’m shopping for a $350,000 house. If that buys me more house there is no gain in real estate value…it just means sellers reduced prices and I get more home for the money.

People are insane. We bought December of 2006 and just in the 6 months, prices are starting to be 10% higher than what we paid. In another 6 months I believe the prices will be right around what we paid for our house. Luckily we’re not going anywhere anytime soon.

Comment by miamirenter
2007-05-16 07:17:28

10% gain in 6 months ? that too in 2007.
you must be mistaken…

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Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 07:22:39

“10% gain in 6 months ? that too in 2007″

Not a 10% gain…we bought WAY under what “market value” was in December. Houses were selling in the $289K range and we bought in at $221K. Houses these days are running $245K to $250K

 
Comment by Ed
2007-05-16 07:39:37

When you mean running do you mean selling for or listing for?

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 07:50:31

Listing is still $260 or so. When they sell it’s $245 or $250.

 
 
 
 
Comment by GPBlank
2007-05-16 08:06:39

Yawn….wake me up when they get to late 90’s prices like they are here in east metro-Detroit.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 08:09:24

“wake me up when they get to late 90’s prices like they are here in east metro-Detroit.”

Economy would have to CRASH for that to happen anywhere else in the world. Detroit had all of its eggs in one basket and the basket dropped. The MEC (cheerleaders for the state of MI) states that Michigan is in for 10 to 15 years of poulation decline. No one to buy even at late 90’s pricing.

Comment by NotInSarasotaAnymore
2007-05-16 10:24:00

Hello? Have you ever been to Florida? If there was ever an economy that had all its eggs in one basket, its Florida. When I lived in Sarasota from 2001-2006 I was hard pressed to find ANYONE who was either a Realtor, Appraiser, or serviced homes like A/C, Flooring, Roofing, etc. FLA is in for a deep, deep recession as they are an economic one-trick pony like I’ve never seen in my life!

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Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 10:33:07

“Hello? Have you ever been to Florida?”

Hello…live there. All of the real estate agents were something else and will go back once this all gets hammered out. The contractors will have work as long as there are hurricanes. The banking (not mortgage) and hospitality industries are booming. Medical research is here to stay and don’t forget the other service jobs such as nurses and doctors assistants.

Definitely NOT a one-trick pony.

 
Comment by NotInSarasotaAnymore
2007-05-16 11:35:37

Oh my goodness. I see where you are coming from. You are too close to ground zero to see the mushroom cloud forming. You say: The RE agents will go back to something else. OK, to what? Waiting tables? Those are all being filled by immigrants earning minimum wage. And how many of those jobs will be needed when far fewer are going out to eat because the Home ATM machine is shut down? I know roofing companies…they are dying…bleeding…laying people off. OK, lets have the hurricanes come through. There are alot more people now who have no insurance! They are doomed. If its a bad hurricane season, every insurance agency will move out, or jack rates up the wazoo so far that people will swarm out of there like red ants being sprayed w/ hair spray! And then what? If its a calm season, no work, more layoffs, low wages.
Banking industry? Good luck w/ that! Its all tied into RE if you like it or not.
Medical Research? Oh yes, Florida is such a world class leader in medicine! Come on man, gimme a break!
I’m not trying to be rude, really…but I think you can’t see the forest for the trees. Honestly.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 11:54:07

“Banking industry?”

Yes…every major player in the industry has offices in South Florida.

As for the real estate agents, the smart ones who provide any form of value will stay in the business. Those others will end up waiting tables. The illegals won’t stay around if there’s no work. They’ll be the first “casualty.”

Florida may not be on the cutting edge of medicine but hospitals can’t hire fast enough. What happens when it becomes affordable for them to live here and work here? That’s right…people will flock back into the state just as they’ve done for the past 7 decades.

I’m no FL cheerleader, but you certainly can’t argue with history. Population in 1930 (right after the first crash) 1,468,211 and in 1940? 1,897,414

 
Comment by In Colorado
2007-05-16 12:03:30

The last time I checked the Mouse didn’t pay all that great.

 
Comment by NotInSarasotaAnymore
2007-05-16 12:07:27

Not only the “mouse”, but all the rest of the “rats” all over FLA. They get paid squat! The only ones who made money were the business owners who did roofs, flooring, etc. And now that nobody can refi their lives away anymore, those poor saps are going under, big time.

 
Comment by NotInSarasotaAnymore
2007-05-16 12:11:04

“What happens when it becomes affordable for them to live here and work here? That’s right…people will flock back into the state just as they’ve done for the past 7 decades.”

True enough. But the illegals / immigrants are the only ones who can afford to move there now. And “when” homes become affordable won’t be for about 10 years. Yup, in 10 years I’m coming back.

 
Comment by SKB
2007-05-16 14:10:34

10 years?? :(

Geez, if it takes ten years for homes to become affordable there will be no one left in the state.

I can not see this crash taking ten years, people have no patience for that.
What are the banks going to do with all of their new REO properties?
I just saw one listed as a public auction. A house that was purchased in 1993 for 63,000. They must have HELOC the hell out of it, was listed for 160,000.

I am seeing more and more properties going to foreclosure due to the ATM madness.
10 years no way.

SKB

 
Comment by NotInSarasotaAnymore
2007-05-16 15:30:27

When I say 10 years, I mean 10 years before we hit bottom. People will continue to buy for sure, but it will be people that can afford to buy them. And slowly the inventories will go down and down, until we hit a bottom. Mark my words.

 
Comment by recoveryin3to4years
2007-05-16 18:22:01

First of all I went to the dentist today to request my file for when I leave for GA in a couple of weeks..the assistant said you are the 4th person TODAY..who requested their file because they were leaving..she said they use to get and 1 to 2 file request per week now they are getting that and more per day..Simply it means people are leaving…

 
Comment by NotInSarasotaAnymore
2007-05-16 18:26:04

It doesn’t surprise me at all! So many are going to N Carolina and elsewhere. Can you blame them?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by gordo nyc / Daytona
2007-05-16 06:18:26

I’m starting to see the little 2BR / 1 BA 800 sf concrete block bungalows along the Ormond Beach coast dropping back under $150K. Ten years ago they were $75K. By the time the bubble peaked they were up pushing $200k.

These little cottages are a commodity all along the NE FL coastline. They were built in the 1950’s and designed for snowbirds to during the winter. Some are only 650-700 sf. sitting on postage stamps building lots. They were never designed for year-round living, or as a permanent home. The prices were pumped up by speculators trying to hawk “beachfront” to unsuspecting buyers. As a staple item of speculators, I am happy to see them finally dropping in price. Gordo

Comment by michael f
2007-05-16 06:23:14

can you post a listing of one of these bungalows? Thanks. I would like to see what one of these look like.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 06:33:41

Just jump on that trademarked website that I won’t mention for fear of backlash and put in Ormond Beach under $175K.

Comment by michael f
2007-05-16 06:36:27

can you tell me what website? Realtor.com?

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Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 06:39:10

exactly

 
 
 
Comment by Gwynster
2007-05-16 07:37:04

Those are eerily familiar. They are all over Davis, CA. and rent for about 1200 per month.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2007-05-16 06:50:57

“2BR / 1 BA 800 sf concrete block bungalows”

I hope to pay cash for one of those over here in West Central Florida when the smoke clears from the bust, etc. I love a little Florida concrete block shack. Just reinforce for hurricanes, update the wiring and life’s good. It’s the ultimate in low cost, laid back living.

 
Comment by aaa
2007-05-16 07:07:31

I watched these bungalows go up in value $10,000 a year starting in 99 I bought in 2003 My daughter lived there for a couple of years.In 2005 someone told her they were lucky to get one for $200,000

Comment by Roidy
2007-05-16 07:29:13

:O I went to the “unnamed website” and just entered Ormond Beach. There are nearly 1500 properties for sale! This is SFH’s, too. Jeesh! I can’t really understand how some people believe that the market will “comeback soon”. I did Daytona Beach and there were over 3000 of all types.
When Florida empties out and I can start going on vacation again, I shouldn’t have a problem finding a place to stay.
Roidy

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 07:32:12

“…nearly 1500 properties …”

The result of GF “investors” getting stuck in this market.

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Comment by flatffplan
2007-05-16 06:23:45

BS on 2%
I can buy anywhere in FL for 25% off spring 2005 prices

Comment by Home_a_Loan
2007-05-16 08:00:39

Yeah there’s something fishy going on with the realtor numbers, especially the FAR numbers.

 
Comment by ubaldus
2007-05-16 15:54:15

Not in Miami. Pinecrest, Gables, South Miami are still at the peak prices, though of course there are plenty of reductions to above-the-peak wishing prices

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2007-05-16 06:26:17

“For the true, seasoned investor, it doesn’t matter if it’s a buyer or seller’s market, they are looking.” [Broker Dan Forbes said.]
The true seasoned investors are mostly on Wall Street, and whatever they are “looking” at, what they’re buying isn’t RE.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-16 06:29:33
 
Comment by the_economist
2007-05-16 06:32:03

‘The number of people who didn’t pay their 2006 bill on time increased significantly in Volusia and Flagler counties. The number of unpaid tax bills rose 39 percent in Flagler and 13 percent in Volusia in the last year.’

Having owned real estate in Volusia county, I can tell you the government adds very little value…They just announced that the 10s of millions of dollars they invested in dredging and adding sand to the beaches of New Smyrna were washed away with the recent storm…They were also constantly hounding and threatening me for
not paying taxes for my rental unit…what a bunch of a$$ clowns.

Comment by DC in LBV
2007-05-16 10:50:57

Yeah, the surf last week tore it all up. Sunday, 2 weeks ago, you could walk all the way to the sandbar (50~100 yards out) at low tide and never get over waist deep. This past weekend, after 2 days of 10~12 waves crashing ashore, 3 steps off the beach and you were in water over your head.

 
 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-05-16 06:33:46

And here is our “beach ball” (from the bits bucket). Have fun everyone, nothing like some fun in the FL sun talking about absolutely insane house/insurance/tax prices, while watching your HELOC addicted neighbors finally being brought back to reality.

One of my neighbors homes finally sold for 325K (about 100K below the price paid 2 years ago). This sale closed about 3 months ago. There is a unit down the street (same home, same desireability of location) advertised for 299K. Nothing like losing 25K in 3 months, huh! But even more fun is the guy losing 125K on the resale…

FL is toast, there is no saving this ship, just wait for the correction to play out and keep a low profile (ie, don’t spend like there is no tommorow).

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 06:38:30

“There is a unit down the street (same home, same desireability of location) advertised for 299K.”

That’s what we’re seeing in my neighborhood. What was selling for $319,900 at the begining of the end is now at $249,900 and some even as low as $229,900 if they need work.

Comment by realestateblues1
2007-05-16 10:23:36

I’m seeing 390k in late 2005 now being 300k, and 480k in mid 2006 being 400k.

 
 
Comment by Ft Lauderdale
2007-05-16 06:40:13

we had neighbors who offered us the first look at the house they were listing as a “favor” prior to involving a realtor, dream price, we told them we would lease, they got a bit testy, they have marked it down 100K and it is still sitting there, South florida is beyond toast and the denail is passing into fear…

I feel like having a tshirt made, have cash, check, have good credit, check, have documented income, check and then walking around realtor offices for grins and giggles.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 06:51:54

“South florida is beyond toast…”

I can’t feel bad for anyone who bought the hype. I can’t feel bad for anyone who had a negative am mortgage. Who do I feel bad for? Those still locked into their homes because of save our homes. As prices return to normal, those will be the people who will be yelling the loudest for property tax reform.

Comment by bob
2007-05-16 07:10:21

I can feel bad for some folks. Those that played by the rules, had documented income, looked around for a home and ended up being played by real estate industry.

I have not pity for the scammers, those that ‘estimated’ income, those who were ‘investors’, those that took out HELOC $ for boats etc.

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Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 07:27:10

“Those that played by the rules, had documented income, looked around for a home and ended up being played by real estate industry. ”

The tax offices in FL keep outstaning records. If you saw your house was purchased in 2001 for $130K and you still chose to pay $400K, there’s no one else at fault. Renting was an option throughout this bubble. I can’t even feel sorry for them…but if they have a mortgage they can afford they’ll be able to ride out the storm.

 
Comment by Dave
2007-05-16 08:01:38

I agree. Anyone who did any research could see prices were ridiculous compared to historical pricing. We refused to even consider purchasing at prices in the past 5 years. Absolutely NO sympathy here.

 
Comment by outofSanDiegoQT
2007-05-17 14:04:32

I concur. We moved to south FLA 22 months ago for a three year job/military transfer. We looked at houses, thinking maybe we’ll like it and want to stay after the job is up. Well the houses were so expensive and seemed of such poor quality we passed and rented instead. Many thought we were nuts. Now we are leaving the state next month which is a whole year earlier than we anticipated. (We are actually retiring to get out of here. Living in south Florida has just been awful, we really really hate it.) Thank goodness we had enough common sense not to buy. I know many other officers (at least five) at hubby’s work who are trying to sell now with no luck at all. Things are getting dire. I see the wives about once a month and I know I shouldn’t but I can’t help it, the first thing I ask them, “So, how’s the housing selling going?” Tee hee hee…

 
 
 
Comment by rca
2007-05-16 14:58:12

i like what you said!

 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-05-16 20:11:07

I had a similar experience. An acquaintance and his wife recently bought their “dream house” before selling their existing residence. Knowing that I am recently married and have an income above the local median, upon listing his current place, he visited me first thing to check my interest, whereupon I greeted him with the news that my wife and I are renting for the forseeable future.

His house remains on the market. It has been reduced from $480,000 to $410,000. I keep thinking that’s $70,000 he tried to steal from us.

 
 
Comment by Notorious D.A.P.
2007-05-16 06:44:20

Mike,

Is the house you are renting still up for sale in the $500-$550K range? Is it comperable to the one that sold for $325K and theone listed for $299K? If so……….OUCH!!!

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-05-16 07:30:32

No, the owner took it off the market. It is not a direct comp (the other houses are 1555 sq/ft, the home I live in is ~1950), however they are very, very close to comparables. I can’t imagine spending another 200K for 400 sq/ft, especially when the home that sold for 325 was more upgraded.

Either way, it’s a bloodbath here in Evergrene, that’s for sure.

Comment by BP
2007-05-16 07:50:14

Hey Mike you should renegotiate down your rent since the “value” of the neighborhood has declined!

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-05-16 08:04:49

Where at, Michael? I track my old Sarasota ZIP code and prices seem remarkably sticky.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 09:13:51

Bill,

Keep an eye on zip 33414. Prices here are down 25% at minimum. People went crazy over Wellington for some reason. Don’t ask me why…we’re 15 miles from the coast.

 
Comment by Flic
2007-05-16 10:34:35

I’m in the Lakewood Ranch area of Bradenton FL (tons of renters & For Sale signs in my ‘hood). The people next door to me paid $370k for their 2000 sq/ft stucco box last summer and the same exact house a few houses down sold for $260k 2 weeks ago……..

Comment by NotInSarasotaAnymore
2007-05-16 11:43:00

Sticky? Um no. I had to move out for work reasons…no high tech work to speak of in SRQ. Had to lower my home 44K (about 15%) to get one offer…finally after 10 months! There are tons of FSBO & RE signs everywhere on my street. The people who don’t sell are the ones that don’t drop their prices, they are still very dumb, thinking its still 2005…but they will have to drop their price to sell, no doubt about it.

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-05-16 13:15:38

Wow, thanks for the replies. When I look at the listings on realtor.com, I get the feeling that asking (wishing) prices aren’t down much at all, but I guess the SELLING prices are down.

 
Comment by NotInSarasotaAnymore
2007-05-16 15:32:19

Exactly! I’m totally convinced to that the RE industry is playing funny w/ the numbers that are out there. Reality, not Realty. :)

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by michael f
2007-05-16 06:35:37

I really would like to purchase something in Ibis or maybe Mirasol, does anyone who lives in Palm Beach County think the prices in those developments could drop another 25 to 40%. You can find a nice house in Ibis for under $500,000 but I still think the market is way overvalued. You can’t touch anything in Mirasol for under $650,000. However, there seems to be plenty of inventory and when you go to realtor.com and look at properties you see many empty houses and then go to the land records you can see where these were recently purchased with what appears the intention to flip for a quick buck. So much for those plans. I believe these people are going to panick after a while. I don’t care who you are carrying a empty investment property at $5000 a month has to start hurting after a while. Appreciate any insight anyone can provide.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 06:43:09

“I really would like to purchase something in Ibis or maybe Mirasol, does anyone who lives in Palm Beach County think the prices in those developments could drop another 25 to 40%. You can find a nice house in Ibis for under $500,000 but I still think the market is way overvalued.”

IBIS had a sobering period right after the research facility changed locations. They had a drop even before the rest of the county. Homes that were $650K are now $400K and homes that were $400K are as low as $250K. I won’t even think to declare bottom, but because of these other factors now may be that time in Ibis. They are kind of secluded and in a market all their own.

The questions to ask are…can I afford it? Am I paying 2003 prices at the most? Am I willing to ride it out? Is it cheaper to rent?

If it’s cheaper to rent when factoring all of the tax advantages of owning why would you even consider buying?

Comment by michael f
2007-05-16 07:13:19

I am looking to retire to Florida in 5-7 years and I really like both those developments. I would be selling a rental condo and hope to do a 1031 exchange but I know I won’t be able to get much in rental income and don’t really want to rent the house anyway so there goes my 1031 exchange. However, I would be happy with a second home in either development.

The other items that scares me is the real estate taxes and insurance plus I could not see living in one of those golf course communities and not belonging to the country club and that is another $10,000 per year. Just to show you how out of whack taxes and insurance is down there I currenty paid $5,500 in RE taxes on an $800,000 in Mountgomery County MD where the schools are the best in the country and my homeowners insurance is $1,100. I know I pay income tax but when I retire my income will go down but my RE taxes and insurance would stay the same down there. Hopefully they will fix the problem so everyone pays about the same. I find it totally stupid that two identical houses one could be paying 3 times more than the other house just depending when you purchased the house. Young people/first time buyers will never be able to purchase a house.

I still don’t think sellers are back to 2003 prices, at least when I look at the land records and see what they paid four years ago and what they are asking now. They are still being delusional. I really think the bargains to be had will be from people who purchased in during 05 and 06 with the intent to flip and need/have to get out because they are bleeding dollars and need to turn off the money spigot.

For example this house was purchased in Sept 05 for $399,950 http://www.thetelchingroup.com/Palm_Beach_Gardens_FL_Ibis_Golf_Country_Club_FL_listings/ywgr2aveqzv.shtml with the intention to flip and has been sitting vacant. There is $320,000 option arm which I am guessing with a interest rate now over 8.5% plus he took out a HELOC on his house for $150,000 in June 07. The asking price is now down to $379,000 and my guess is from talking to the realtor that they would take $325,000. I am sure there are 1000s of houses just like this one and once the sellers really panick prices are going to plummet.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 07:48:50

” I am sure there are 1000s of houses just like this one and once the sellers really panick prices are going to plummet.”

Again, Ibis in particular is so far off the beaten path that it has its own little market. There are 52 listings in Ibis priced under $450,000 with at least 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Bring it to 4 bedrooms and you’re at just 3 listings. One in particular was built in 1996 with 4 beds and 4 baths is listed at $399,000. In 1996 the house was sold to the original owner for $248,750. Now let’s take 11 years of normal gains…and we’re between $383K and $426K. That seems to me to be priced right. Again, I’m not going to call bottom but this price seems to be in line with normal.

Taxes are lower in Palm Beach County on a millage basis than much of the country. I know in MD they sock it to you when you buy and register a car and give you a state income tax. The government will get you one way or another.

The home insurance IS expensive. There’s no way around it but the risk is high. What amazes me is that people will think nothing of spending $2,000 per year to insure their $35,000 car but complain about spending $3,000 per year to insure their $280,000 replacement cost home. Are you kidding me?

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Comment by michael f
2007-05-16 08:22:31

Andy how do you do a specific search for Ibis, you can’t put in Ibis in realtor.com. thanks again Michael

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 08:30:00

You need to have access to the MLS exchange. Some real estate agents will allow you to access this information via their website. Then you can put everything in right down to subdivision.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 08:32:24

You can also put zip code 33412 into the website you mentioned. Many of the homes in that zip code are IBIS homes.

 
Comment by Moman
2007-05-16 08:45:11

IBIS is a very nice neighborhood - I have some family that lives in there.

It’s like visiting a resort every time I’m there with the lush, tropical foliage and well maintained neighborhoods.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 09:35:55

“It’s like visiting a resort every time I’m there…”

Part of my point.

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-05-16 07:50:31

check out NC carteret county
FL is a pia now

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Comment by txchick57
2007-05-16 08:00:51

That’s not a bad place and 325K seems reasonable to me for a nice house in Palm Beach, Florida. I suppose the taxes and insurance would be a deal killer for most people looking in that price range though.

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Comment by SKB
2007-05-16 14:21:19

“plus he took out a HELOC on his house for $150,000 in June 07.”

Magic trick?

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Comment by yogurt
2007-05-16 22:58:53

Hopefully they will fix the problem so everyone pays about the same. I find it totally stupid that two identical houses one could be paying 3 times more than the other house just depending when you purchased the house. Young people/first time buyers will never be able to purchase a house

Guess what - the market will fix the problem. Prices must fall until entry level buyers can afford to buy. That will drive assessments right down to the level they were when SOH was brought in and everyone will end up paying the same taxes again. SOH was a Ponzi scheme based on perpetual price increases and that game is over.

Oh and one more thing - once the old-timers can’t dump property tax increases on the new buyers, they’re going to have to elect governments that spend less money. How about that.

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Comment by Fla-anon
2007-05-16 10:10:59

I know Ibis and Mirasol real well. Be careful about Ibis. They are going to knock down the old clubhouse and build a new one, courtesy of the homeowners. You also get whacked with additional fees to pay for Northlake, and your taxes are high to begin with because it is in West Palm Beach. Its also so far out that most buyers will choose to live closer in with a choice. the high end in Ibis is fine - prices not falling. The low end is getting killed.

Mirasol is in much better location, but is more expensive. I find many of the people who live there, however, quite rude. Fees are quite high there as well.

There are still speculators in Mirasol holding on. I think you will have a better buying opportunity later in the summer.

Comment by michael f
2007-05-16 10:41:58

If Ibis is going to build a clubhouse like the one at Mirasol that would not be such a bad thing, it just depends on who is going to pay for it. The clubhouse at Mirasol is as nice as any 5 star resort.

Also, isn’t being further west a little better if the hurricane does come through or is it not far enough to matter.

It used to be that housing up north here in the DC suburbs would be twice as expensive as Florida but not anymore.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 12:00:44

“Also, isn’t being further west a little better if the hurricane does come through or is it not far enough to matter.”

Only does better if the hurricane comes in from the East and gets shredded up by buildings on the coast. If not, watch out! That preserve will feed the storm.

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-05-16 13:21:13

“It used to be that housing up north here in the DC suburbs would be twice as expensive as Florida but not anymore.”

That’s why I failed to perceive the bubble when we lived in Sarasota. I just thought the prices were finally catching up to the prices in the DC area and the Northeast corridor. But 80% in three years, that’s a bubble.

Glad we got out when we did.

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Comment by outofSanDiegoQT
2007-05-17 14:16:53

Nearly everyone in south Florida is rude, that was the biggest shock when we moved here. We won for Rudest Drivers for the second year in a row too, another selling point. And this may not apply to you but look into what we call the “florida conundrum:” the crappy public schools. The trick is to find the least bad school as they’re all really bad. Nevermind if that have that meaningless “A” designination, they all do! And private schools here are ridiculously expensive i.e. $24,000/year at American Hertitage.

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Comment by Crapburner
2007-05-16 06:37:17

Florida—-1927—–2007……my how history repeats.

Comment by fran chise
2007-05-16 09:44:35

So, 2009 is the stock market crash?

 
 
Comment by HarryD
2007-05-16 06:56:54

Congress may soon be passing THE MORTGAGE CANCELLATION OF DEBT RELIEF ACT - meaning “short sellers” (with their bank’s agreement bank agrees to let buyer sell property below amount owed and foregive shortfall) - will not be taxed on the debt cancelled on their primary residence

Now there are many many reasons why passing such an act is nonsensical - as for one it presents huge problems related to the fairness of not having debt forgiveness on other kinds of so-called “phantom” income - however odds s/b high it will be passed

However, the net result will be a further huge drop in prices as distressed homeowners seek a way out - and vulture buyers understand this to be another reason why sellers should lower prices further

Florida prices should be down 30 to 40% (off 2005 highs) - very soon

Comment by BM
2007-05-16 07:08:12

Yeah this is great news. With people’s penchant for spending a dollar to save a quarter (in taxes), they’ll definitely fall for the Realtor(R) spin to lower their prices because they can, once again, make it up on the back end in taxes. Except this time there is nothing to collect since nothing was paid in.

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-05-16 07:13:19

“Florida prices should be down 30 to 40% (off 2005 highs) - very soon”

From your lips to God’s ears, I hope. I’d much prefer to get this over with fast. But people here are incredibly stubborn and completely unrealistic. We are still a ways away from capitulation or acceptance.

Comment by flatffplan
2007-05-16 07:35:09

then gov will “help”
that should turn us Japanese

Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-16 07:42:41

Funny…

Everybody harkens back to the Japanese model of real estate collapse, as if it is a given, as to what will happen to us.

Japan is a nation of savers, a nation of honor and that rarity of rarities~

A 1st world country, with almost no immigrants & a largely non violent society.

How do we stack up, in comparison?

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Comment by flatffplan
2007-05-16 07:53:20

and personal savings, as if anyone needs that !

 
Comment by KirkH
2007-05-16 10:11:20

And they have a serious problem due to their isolation. A lack of fresh young talent from outside of Japan means they have a relatively small population of young people supporting the hoards of elderly.

If you don’t allow immigration and the younger generation chooses career over kids, real estate has nowhere to go but down.

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-16 11:52:48

“…and personal savings, as if anyone needs that !”

No savings are necessary, as long as free stuff is available…

 
 
 
 
Comment by ShaunT79
2007-05-16 08:00:18

This is actually great news as a non-homeowner. People will be much more likely to cut prices if they don’t have to pay. We could get our instant RE crash with this type of legislation.

 
Comment by ozajh
2007-05-16 09:06:45

on their primary residence

If you own multiple residences, I wonder how quickly you can qualify one of your secondary residences as primary, after you sell the original primary.

I have visions of specuvestors moving for tax purposes every week or so …

Comment by DC in LBV
2007-05-16 11:09:13

2 years. If you have both properties for more than 5 years there might be some tricks you could pull off to shorten it (like claiming 2 years primary residence during the prior 5 years for each property).

Comment by Chip
2007-05-16 17:58:19

Bet there will be a lot of fraud about that — relative to properties owned in multiple states simultaneously being claimed as principal residences. Unless the “relief” is accounted for on the federal tax returns in a way that is flagged for duplicates, people will try in in droves, I think.

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Comment by Army No Va
2007-05-16 17:32:05

A variation of this happened in Austin with FHA loans in the 1990-02 bottom timeframe. Basically, FHA loan back to the bank, back to the govt. Bank doesn’t 1099, Government didn’t either. Foreclosure does show up on credit, but bankers would take a letter of explanation with loan app and - no problem - if it was a good letter! Bankers in Austin were desparate to make loans and to sell REOs. Banker friends told me “you’d be amazed at how many people had foreclosures”, and if nothing else on the credit report, they’d give them a mortgage with 10-20% down only a couple of years later. No tax problem, no judgement and no credit problem. Back in the game.

Nevertheless, the psychology wrt real estate was so negative in 1990, that prices were still down below rental value (down 35-40% or more) in most suburbs and they couldn’t “give land away” (well almost couldn’t).

 
 
Comment by P'cola Popper
2007-05-16 07:15:34

There is an article in my local newspaper about a couple trying to sell their three bedroom Queen Anne turn-of-the-century Bed and Breakfast which is located near downtown in a historical area for $599,000. The house was originally bought in 2002 for $324,000. I can be pretty cynical but it is a lovely house–just overpriced.

I don’t see how the house can cashflow at $100 per night with three bedrooms at an investment cost of $599,000. It seems more of a hobby than a business although personally I don’t see how someone could like cleaning toilets for a hobby but to each his own.

The funny thing is there was a big write up in the paper today because the guy will auction the property at the beginning of June. Also two prior sales per the article have fallen through. We all know how these Florida auctions turn out to be a big to do about nothing but its interesing that this gimmick has surfaced in Pensacola. Also in classic style the article closes with “if they don’t get their price the owner intends to keep running the bed and breakfast.”

Not sure if you guys can get access hence the long write up.

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070516/BUSINESS/705160306/1003

Comment by fran chise
2007-05-16 10:01:59

I’ve been involved with historic rehabs since the early ’80s. Many people have this silly notion that they can make money by changing a turn of the century home into a B&B. Almost all of them are hobbies even if not planned to be one. Absent some significant tourist destination nearby with the right demographic for visitors, they’ll never make money unless they inherited the home already converted for guests when Granny died. I spend summers in a city that is full of turn of the century homes. The one that I thought took the cake was the converted B&B right next to the electrical substantion. What the hell were they thinking?

The only way to make money on these is to get to know the long term resident families in historic neighborhoods that are also tourist destinations and when Granny dies, be ready to offer the family a low, albeit fair, price and plan on renting and holding it, not converting it to a B&B (entirely different occupancy codes). Can’t tell you how much time I’ve spent at kitchen tables just visiting. Even though you can do it, with the current market, I’d be slow to do even that now.

 
 
Comment by Tom
2007-05-16 07:15:43

Coast is Toast. 1 million in loan loss reserves to 38 million and rising. Tons of lawsuits. Tram Hudson squeezing the last bit of equity out of the home.

Comment by palmetto
2007-05-16 07:21:31

“Tram Hudson squeezing the last bit of equity out of the home.”

LMAO! I guess if you don’t make it as a politician, you can always be a trustee.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-16 07:17:18

Please tell me his first name isn’t justin…

‘A Cape Coral agency has money to help people facing foreclosure notices. Lee County could have plans to do the same by end of June. Residents with higher incomes who took loans with adjustable mortgage rates and interest-only loans probably don’t qualify for help, said Timberlake.’

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-16 07:18:58

Leyoffs?

“The layoffs are ‘a precursor of the type of things to come,’ according to County Administrator Jim Ley, who last month announced a ’soft’ hiring freeze and temporarily halted plans to expand the county’s fire department and public transportation service.”

Comment by flatffplan
2007-05-16 07:55:06

you could chop 1/2 the county workers in Fairfax county and no one would notice-goldbrick theorists

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-05-16 08:11:49

Oh yeah. I was dumbfounded at the number of “blue pages” government listings in the phone directory when we lived there in the 80’s and early 90s. Probably more county bureaucrats than some small countries have.

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-16 07:21:05

Methinks a vintage Aston Martin might be a better way to blow 200 Large…

“Those looking to buy a home under $200,000 have a chance now that was unheard of just a year ago, said May Aston, president of the Manatee Association of Realtors. ‘There are quite a few decent homes under $200,000. Last year, if someone were to ask me for a home under $200,000, I couldn’t have found one,’ Aston said.”

 
Comment by mikey
2007-05-16 07:28:25

IT is going to take a helluva lot more work and hype than the “Endless Summer in the Sun” and ‘Breath taking Ocean Views” BS, to lure any sensible family INTO investing their lives and future CA or Florida for a while.

Everybody is running for COVER and the 1st major Hurricane on BOTH coasts this season is unofficially named “Financial” .

 
Comment by Roidy
2007-05-16 07:38:08

Hmmm. Some food for thought. Housing was over priced in the mid 1920’s. This was nationwide but particularly bad in Florida. That real estate market went down and stayed down for many years. It seems that shortly after that market went, the stock market started to soar. It went wild for about 2 years and then it went down. The ensuing credit crunch and total loss of money began the Great Depression. This didn’t really get going until well into 1931.
So, could we be in for the same treatment this time around? Soaring market, fundamentals out of kilter, bad realeastate, talky heads going at it nonstop - Kudlow, Cramer, etc - it really looks like it.
Roidy

Comment by palmetto
2007-05-16 07:43:45

I think you’ve nailed it, Roidy. The only fly in the ointment is that many people attribute the end of the Depression to WW2, which supposedly brought about prosperity. But, due to the waste of flesh in the Capitol/WH, we’ve done it bassackwards and have already had our “prosperity war”. Except it didn’t bring any prosperity to anyone except the gov contractors, who have looted the treasury for all it is worth. So there won’t be any relief funds for the reconstruction of the US economy.

Comment by ShaunT79
2007-05-16 08:02:11

Well said, we will be paying the price for our reckless actions, one way or another.

 
Comment by miamirenter
2007-05-16 09:42:39

well if you are a fan of nostradamus (new age stuff) as well as believers of second-coming of christ, years 2007-2012 were deemed chaotic w/ apocalypse in ~2012..google it.

Comment by aladinsane
2007-05-16 10:12:25

Nostradamus hardly qualifies as “new age stuff”…

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Comment by Zhang Fei
2007-05-16 11:57:26

Two differences - in the 20’s, (1) mortgages were a new thing and five year mortgages with balloon payments at the end were the norm, meaning 1/5 of the outstanding mortgages had to be refinanced every year and (2) it was possible to borrow $9 to buy stocks for every dollar of equity you had in your account, whereas today the ratio is $1 to $1.

 
 
Comment by SKB
2007-05-16 07:45:18

It is official the builder that I wanted to build my house after the crash is over is out of business.
TURN KEY HOME BUILDERS owned by ANTHONY MYURA, Pres. is kaput.
This builder has left some people hanging in the wind as well.

Taken from another board:

“Family purchases lot and house plan from reputable builder in July, 05.

October, 05, family told that house plan which was closed on and finalized, can’t fit on the lot that the same builder sold the family.

7 months pass before the contractor agrees to a new plan, which was delayed because the contractor wanted us to accept less square footage for the same price, ironic since it was his personal mistake as he signed the plans without consulting with his engineers.

23 months pass. House still not done.

During 23rd month, leins are placed on property with roughly two weeks worth of work left, because despite draws being made from the account, the contractor was not paying the sub-contractors for work done on the house.

My question is, what should be done next? Anyone know? Is it fraud? It looks like it to me, and the company won’t return calls and looks as if they are going out of business.

Any input anyone has would be much obliged.”

Comment by diogenes (Tampa)
2007-05-16 09:18:15

Probably is, and you are not alone.
here is an article from Florida on IDEAL Homes.
Some legislators are going after buildings who have filed for BR after unloading customers bank accounts an not using the money to complete work.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070516/BUSINESS/705160580

Next time use an escrow agent, so someone is responsible for seeing the work is completed before releasing additional money.

Comment by palmetto
2007-05-16 11:50:50

I just realized from reading this that it is not simply a matter of illegal immigrants in the construction business having a tought time finding any further work, but I’ll bet there are a bunch out there who probably have been badly burned due to non-payment. Good on ‘em, cobber. Maybe they’ll learn the hard way what it’s like to be an American citizen who has to deal with a screwed up court system. And, maybe they should put liens on the non-existent property of some of these homeowners who got screwed, too.

 
 
 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-05-16 07:48:33

“Homeowners have given up all of the gains achieved in 2006 and are now falling back to the fall of 2005 for comparable prices.”

Does anyone believe this?
No way. We are into 2004 prices now soon to be 2002.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 07:54:13

“Does anyone believe this?”

Ben said it earlier. If we’re talking about median prices there’s only been a slight drop. If you look at side by side comps we are absolutely into 2004 with some sellers dropping into 2003 and 2002 to offload their houses.

 
 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-05-16 07:55:11

question anything the NAR or a realtor puts out

 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-05-16 07:58:28

NEW TOPIC
what year pricing is your hood at , yo ?
2005 march here in 22151 N VA off 13% from peak

sound off and include your county or zip

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-05-16 08:17:16

Western Carolina, on a lake, near the mountains. Median price for non-waterfront SFH up over 40% in last two years. However, right now very little is selling and inventory is stacking up. Prices gotta come back down at some point.

 
 
Comment by Lisa
2007-05-16 07:59:15

“If the home was purchased before 2004, they are a little more realistic when it comes to listing price,’ Miller said.”

This is the maybe the closest we’ll get to the MSM printing the fact that most folks who bought AFTER 2004 are probably underwater due to 100% financing or HELOC balances (or both). They can’t “afford” to be realistic in their pricing.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 08:15:58

“They can’t “afford” to be realistic in their pricing.”

Even at 100% financing as long as they didn’t roll their closing costs and take an i/o or worse negative am we’re not talking about being underwater yet. If they’re in a hurry to get out, better list now. 2001 here we come!

 
 
Comment by Home_a_Loan
2007-05-16 08:11:49

Florida real estate is ON FIRE! It is HOT HOT HOT!

http://tinyurl.com/32jqtd

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-05-16 08:16:46

Something my cousin sent about property tax in Utah. Sounds similiar to many areas.

http://www.simister.net/~wayne/tax/index.html

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-05-16 08:16:55

Something my cousin sent about property tax in Utah. Sounds similiar to many areas.

http://www.simister.net/~wayne/tax/index.html

 
Comment by NeilT
2007-05-16 08:17:55

How much impact will the increasing foreclosures really have on the prices of desirable houses? We are in MA (south shore), foreclosures are up significantly, but when we go to the auctions, we find that these houses are usually in bad shape. The losers basically have abandoned these houses! It is so sad. However, good houses in good neighborhoods are still asking for 2004-5 prices. One would have thought that by now 25 - 30% shaving was called for. Do you guys think if we wait for another year, the misery wrought by increased foreclosures will be more widely felt, and we can get realistic prices. I’d think that 2001 price + 15% is what one should be paying as maximum in 2008. Is that achievable? I’f like to hear from smart people on this forum. Our rental lease is up for renewal in August, so we need to decide soon. We are sitting on a ton of cash - thanks mainly to the advice on this blog - because we happily rented while some of our friends are neck-deep in s**t. So we can either buy a house almost outright (very little loan) or continue to sock away more savings by renting.

Comment by libertas
2007-05-16 08:26:02

Sock it away. The recession hasn’t even begun yet. But it will be deep and will further pressure housing as unemployment climbs. My guess is that it will be very severe. There’s no reason to stand in front of the train. There is a huge number of vacant housing units and the builders are continuing to add to the stock. It’s what they always do. You will be able to rent any kind of house you want and if you are concerned about the future, negotiate a lease with a ceiling price renewal option (your option).

 
Comment by diogenes (Tampa)
2007-05-16 09:07:37

The bad houses will be bought cheap. This will affect comparables. That will bring down appraised values. That will stop lending on higher priced houses of comparable square footage.
It’s the inflation turned deflation and takes time.
It took about 5 years of CHEAP money to get the mania to reach it’s peak. It was never sustainable.
Give it time. My estimate is summer 2008 for Desperation to set in, and then Panic. But, this is just guesswork. And remember what you are paying for this advice. That may be what it’s worth.
Keep an eye on pricing and don’t get in a hurry. Let the market forces of desperation work their way to Capitulation. When that happens, it is truely a “BUYERS MARKET” and you can get something worth buying.

Good Luck.
-Diogenes.

 
Comment by Ed
2007-05-16 09:30:06

Just like sellers are in denial and asking ridiculous prices still, too many buyers are as ridiculous on the other side. Good luck getting a MA home at 2001+15% price, it’s not happening.

 
Comment by jag
2007-05-16 09:39:53

Wait. When prices get over the “sticky” phase they’ll drop and stay that way for years. Nothing (baring hyperinflation) is going to jump start the housing market around Boston (or anywhere else).

Prices sat for years after the 90 debacle in Boston. It won’t be any better this time and is likely to be worse because prices and leverage are so much higher this time.

Take the time to drill down where you’d want to buy and get to know all the dope you can about various neighborhoods. Pick some homes for sale and track their “progress”. If you don’t get a chance to pay at least 30% in less in the next couple of years it will have to be because of some economic miracle.

Not likely to happen.

 
 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-05-16 08:21:03

wait for 50%+ price reductions in florida, taxes and insurance costs have soared in last few years. Take this in to account also.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 09:02:32

“… taxes and insurance costs have soared in last few years.”

Taxes only soared because of prices. Insurance costs what it should have to begin with to factor in the hurricane risk. When prices are back in 2001 or 2003 in some areas it will be time to look at buying.

Comment by NotInSarasotaAnymore
2007-05-16 12:04:37

OK, so your saying taxes are high and insurance is high (and going higher, sorry to say) and you say that it will be a good time to buy at 01 prices? How do you figure that one out? If inventories are still high at ‘01 prices, and borrowing money is still tight (and also will get much tighter!) then 2001 prices are definitely NOT the time to buy again! These factors are signals that prices are still falling, not due for a rebound. Yikes, there’s a long way to go buddy.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-16 09:17:56

Would-be sellers in bubble zones (CA, FL, etc) are in denial about the recent drop in market values, and are still holding out for 2005 prices at this point — hence the swelling inventory pyres. Take this into account also.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-05-16 10:39:53

“Take this into account also.”

If we see a total of 50% drop it will be a horrible experience. You’ll get all of the “bargain hunters” back into the market and we’ll be talking about the next bubble in 5 years. The slow, steady decline that we’ve experienced so far is what needs to happen. I’m calling for a total drop in the 30-35% range. That means the bubble house that cost $400,000 will run $260 to $280K. The $250,000 “starter home” from the bubble will be $163,000 to $175,000. That’s how Palm Beach county used to be…just a little bit more expensive than the rest of the state.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-16 11:56:14

“…we’ll be talking about the next bubble in 5 years.”

I am expecting the talk five years from now to focus on what a terrible investment real estate is, and not on the next bubble just yet… I am pretty sure the same could have been said about the point five years after the popping of the 1920’s Florida land bubble:

1926 = POP!
1931 = Uh-oh…

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Comment by SKB
2007-05-16 15:20:04

“The $250,000 “starter home” from the bubble will be $163,000 to $175,000.”

Sorry Andy but I disagree, starter homes are not priced at 163-175.
A starter home should be something priced well below 100,000 well below, like 50-75K
To me that is a starter home.

SKB

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Comment by Renterfornow
2007-05-16 08:25:50

Got 20% down?

 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-05-16 08:27:59

Comment by NeilT
2007-05-16 08:17:55

wait your ship will come in.

 
Comment by txchick57
Comment by Dave
2007-05-16 08:51:28

“The decline in permits suggests starts will weaken further.”
SUGGESTS? Shouldn’t that be GUARANTEES? These idiots make me want to puke !!

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-05-16 08:44:30

1997 to 2007
households grews ? 10%+
so we need to add a deflator to this number
Building permits, an indication of future construction, slumped 8.9 percent to a 1.429 million pace, the lowest since June 1997.

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-16 09:15:50

(I recall the 1929 stock market crash was preceded by a 1926 Florida real estate bust…)
==============================================================
AHEAD OF THE TAPE
By JUSTIN LAHART

Does Canary
In U.S. Economy
Nest in Florida?
May 14, 2007; Page C1

If the housing-market shakeout has an epicenter, it probably lies in Florida. For companies with business tied closely to the state, that is a problem.

During the boom, home prices around Miami and Tampa ran up faster than almost anywhere in the country. Goldman Sachs economists note that speculative buyers in houses and, especially, condos fed a building boom that pushed Florida’s housing stock up far more quickly than the state’s population grew. Now, Goldman says, investors better watch Florida’s woes carefully. Florida’s real-estate market was probably already set up for a hangover. Then 2005’s tough hurricane season made matters much worse by pushing up insurance rates along the coast.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117910518936301538.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

 
Comment by Jon
2007-05-16 13:48:23

I remember reading 3 years ago a book about the coming economic depression in the US. The author predicted all the various factors would converge in 2011. I think he was right on the nose. These things take a long, long time to unwind. We have not even begun to see the real problems, no matter how many times economists and realtors call the bottom.

 
Comment by FLDude64
2007-05-16 18:16:31

Things must be REALLY bad if Frank McKinney (quoted in The Palm Beach Post article) is trying to pawn off his own personal residence. You can see the brochure on his web site, here:

http://www.frank-mckinney.com/oceanfrontEstates_estatesForSaleHome.php?idnum=9

 
Comment by lowages
2007-05-16 19:31:53

It looks to me like shortly after the Viet nam war the interest rates were jacked up for 12 years,,1978 - 1990,,, depriving my generation of credit, cars and homes while they opened up the borders,, giving our hard won country away and our government used borrowed money to help American corps (merchants) take our jobs overseas.

Some people say it’s the banks,,, I think the merchants are behind the banks and who did we actually free ourselves from anywho?
A country whose government was probally being run by colonialist merchants.
It’s merchants behind all the economic crap imo.

Globalization is in their best interest.

400 years we’ve been here and I remember the ’70s and now take a look around… S Fl in particular.

Any older folks who plead good samaritan get a good dose of crap from me.. Don’t be a good samaritan with the country that OUR forefathers left US and that you are in temporary care of.

“we’ll just have to fix it after you’re gone

We’ll probably have to fight for our freedom all over again too.

From the international merchants….. again

talk about the “me” generation..

3% interest rates and then rent to their kids generation while interest rates are ~13%.

And then sell out to foreigners for huge sums.

 
Comment by lowages
2007-05-16 19:37:58

It seems like I remember a time during the seventies when there was a change that enabled foreigners to buy property in Florida,,,
or maybe it was the entire U.S… I dunno

I know I’m getting all conspiracy like but I’m living in what seems a very different America than when I was growing up..

The older folks benefit from the slave labor that I have to compete with.

Comment by yogurt
2007-05-16 23:23:51

What on earth are you talking about? Foreigners have always been allowed to buy property in the US. They might be a few states in the Midwest that have some restrictions, but that’s about it.

 
 
Comment by lowages
2007-05-16 19:43:03

…and many that I grew up with are now already dead and buried in their forties,,, suicides and heart failures and older folks living to ninety in luxury..

“you just have to work for it”

I couldn’t believe it when I looked up the history of the prime rate.

 
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