The Market Is Retreating Again In California
The Contra Costa Times reports from California. “East Bay home sales continued their downward slide, DataQuick reported Wednesday. Contra Costa sales fell from 28 percent, 1,735 to 1,246, while the price moved from $575,000 last year to $600,000 this year. Both Alameda and Solano counties reported a drop in sales of 13 percent and 37 percent respectively, and a 2.1 and 7 percent decrease in median prices, respectively.”
“A total of 7,447 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the Bay Area last month, down 18.4 percent, or from 9,129 in April of last year, DataQuick reported. Sales decreased on a year-over-year basis for the last 27 months.”
“Last month’s sales count was the lowest since 5,636 homes were sold in April 1995.
The Fresno Bee. “California home sales have been down on an annual basis during the past 19 months. Historically, sales begin ramping up in the spring. The decline this year may be due in part to the surge of homebuying that occurred during the housing boom.”
“Home sales in the San Francisco Bay area slowed last month, with Santa Clara and Sonoma counties posting median price declines. Sales have fallen in the region on an annual basis for the past 27 months.”
“The biggest price decline occurred in Sonoma County, where the median price fell 8.5 percent to $519,000.”
The Press Democrat. “Sonoma County’s housing downturn hit a new low in April, when prices fell for the 10th consecutive month and sales cooled at a time when the real estate market normally begins to heat up. Sales have fallen 19 consecutive months in year-over-year comparisons as the housing market continues to contract from its peak two years ago.”
“‘The numbers would say that this is not a stellar month. Sales and prices were off and inventory increased at a seasonally expected rate, increasing seller competition and buyer opportunities,’ said Rick Laws, Santa Rosa manager for Coldwell Banker, which prepares The Press Democrat home sales report.” ”
The Sacramento Bee. “Sacramento-area escrow closings dipped in April to their lowest levels since 1995 and fell below March sales counts for the second straight year, DataQuick reported.”
“It means a much-hoped-for spring rebound in home sales has again failed to materialize this year. Last year, sales of new and existing homes peaked in March before leveling off for the remainder of the year.”
“The slower sales numbers arrived alongside reports that another 1,500 existing homes went up for sale in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties in April. Sacramento-based TrendGraphix reported 14,026 homes for sale in the four counties as May began, about 1,500 shy of the region’s all-time inventory high last July.”
The Daily Bulletin. “Southern California home sales fell to a 12-year low in April, further evidence that the beleaguered housing market is in transition.”
“The biggest declines came in San Bernardino and Riverside counties, with sales in San Bernardino County off 46.7 percent from a year earlier and Riverside County down 45.1 percent, according to DataQuick.”
“Bill Velto, manager of Tarbell Realtors in Upland, said that despite a large amount of inventory on the market, more than half of it is overpriced.”
“‘We’re looking at about 60 percent of homes for sale that are priced higher than buyers are currently willing to pay,’ he said. ‘I believe we have transitioned and are now two or three months into a buyers’ market.’”
“Velto says the county could be the most recession-proof market in the Southland. ‘There are 3.5 million people supposed to be moving into Southern California the next 10 years,’ he said. ‘At this point, at least, San Bernardino County housing is recession-proof.’”
The North County Times. “Home prices in Riverside County fell in April for the first time in a decade as buyers continued to gain market power from large numbers of unsold houses, a research firm reported.”
“The falling prices result largely from an unbalanced housing market, local and regional experts said. ‘All of a sudden, you’ve got 10 properties and only one buyer roaming around out there,’ said Earl Bonawitz, who manages the Temecula office of a real estate agency.”
“Bonawitz said many of his agents have been advising clients not to sell their houses only to lock in equity gains or move into a more expensive house locally. Unless a job change requires the move, it’s probably not worth the time and expense, he said.”
“‘It’s an issue of timing and pricing,’ he said. ‘You can price a house to sell today, or you can price a house to sell two years from today.’”
The Union Tribune. “In East County, El Cajon agent Doug Jones has found that many buyers are delaying purchases in expectation of dropping prices. ‘If they are making offers, they are offers way below what the normal asking price is,’ he said. ‘Everybody wants to get a deal.’”
“On Saturday, more than 1,200 people turned out for an auction of nearly 100 foreclosed homes at the San Diego Convention Center. Among the successful buyers was renter SueAnn Miller of Rancho Bernardo.”
“Initially, Miller was happy with the condo she purchased during a fevered bidding session. Yesterday, she was having second thoughts. Eager to stop renting, Miller said she might have paid too much.”
“‘I was looking for a deal,’ she said. ‘I probably rushed into it too quick.’”
The Voice of San Diego. “Fewer homes were sold in San Diego County last month than in any April in a decade, DataQuick reported.”
“‘The market is retreating again, unfortunately,’ said local real estate analyst Peter Dennehy. ‘The people who can afford to be in the market are the ones who are savvy and they are waiting for a good deal.’”
“‘There are more and more people now who are at the lower end of the market who aren’t able to qualify for loans because of the tightening, which isn’t a bad thing, but it doesn’t help (the general market),’ Dennehy said.”
“Andrew LePage, from DataQuick, said he doesn’t think the region is poised to recover yet. ‘We’re at the end of the cycle, but not the last day of it,’ he said.”
The Orange County Register. “Banks sent out 855 notices of default to Orange County homeowners in April, said DataQuick on Tuesday. Last month’s defaults were up 129 percent from April 2006. Default numbers have been generally rising since July 2005.”
“Foreclosures didn’t take an April breather. Last month’s total of 234 foreclosures was the highest since August 1998 and was the fifth consecutive monthly increase. It was up 15 percent from March and 964 percent from a year ago.”
“Orange County’s housing market just had its slowest April in 12 years, DataQuick reported.”
“This also marks the second spring with a glut of homes being offered for sale in the county and the 19th month in a row that the monthly sales pace fell below the previous year’s level.”
“Tarbell Realtors’ Brea office closed Tuesday, and its staff was moved to a Tarbell office in Yorba Linda, said Tarbell agent Wynn Kamen.”
“Observers say other chains also are looking for ways to cut overhead. ‘There are offices closing and offices consolidating,’ said Rich Cosner, president of a chain of Prudential California Realty offices in north Orange County and the Inland Empire.”
“DataQuick reported that 2,682 escrows closed in April, down 24.7 percent from April 2006, a month that already saw a sales drop of 28 percent from the near-record highs of 2005.”
“Resale condo prices also were up from a year ago, but the median price of new homes, both single-family and condos, fell 10.1 percent from a year ago, pulling down the overall median.”
“Countywide, the glut of home listings grew to 15,935 Monday, closing in on the record of 16,006 homes for sale set in August, according to Steven Thomas.”
“Broker Molly Doughty said…buyers ‘don’t feel the urgency to make a commitment. They’re waiting for the price to come down.’”
“Still, prices overall are holding, she said. While price reductions of $100,000 are occurring with some of her clients, most are willing to wait. ‘Most sellers just aren’t that desperate,’ Doughty said.”
“Velto says the county could be the most recession-proof market in the Southland. ‘There are 3.5 million people supposed to be moving into Southern California the next 10 years,’ he said. ‘At this point, at least, San Bernardino County housing is recession-proof.’”
Famous last words.
As my grandmother used to say:
“sounds like somebody as a case of the “supposed-tos”"
Wow, 3.5 million people are “supposed” to move to SoCal. (is there a mandate or law or something?)
1,000 people per day are supposed to move to FL
I think it was 4,000 per day supposed to move to AZ
Are ALL of these people coming from the Northeast/Midwest???? Geez, It sure is gonna get lonely here in Mpls!
It won’t be Canadians either, they recognize crappy snowbird values when they see them and move back north…
It’ll be all those Mexicans coming in for all those construction jobs to build houses for all those Mexicans coming in for all those construction jobs to build houses for all those Mexicans coming in for all those construction jobs to etc.
Too Funny!
“Are ALL of these people coming from the Northeast/Midwest???? Geez, It sure is gonna get lonely here in Mpls!”
Didn’t you hear the news, Clouseau? According to the Met Council, we’re supposed to have a million people moving to the Twin Cities in the next 10 years! That’s why we need all these HabitTrail housing developments to be built RIGHT NOW.
ROFL.
Yes, it is true, Mpls also has a case of the “supposed-tos”.
I’ve seen estimates that Mpls will grow around 50k-100k per year over the next decade.
It’s all voodoo “science”. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Then again, all the Boomers and South Americans and Rich Europeans DO want to live here!
Too bad it will continue to be people (use the term loosely) from Milwaukee and Chicago that continue to move in for the higher levels of welfare benefits. If traveling in North Minneapolis make sure you carry an uzi.
How many towns could you write the same thing about in California?
Most all of them?
I have been hearing for 15 years from the RE Illuminati that 1000 CALIFORNIANS are moving to Colorado per day! WTF! Have I been duped?
Illuminati or Diminati?
And I heard from my cousin in Vegas that 12 people per second are moving there. Maybe it’s a giant game of tag?
Wow, 3.5 million people are “supposed” to move to SoCal. (is there a mandate or law or something?)
Really, as if those affordable California home prices are a major incentive to relocate!
Yes, and the endless water supplies and low population densities, along with affordable housing, make SoCal such a wonderful place to live. Absolutely wonderful.
The story was that 9,000 people a month were swapping their CA driver’s licenses for AZ ones.
We need to find that interactive relocation map from the LA Times.
Hey, all of you! Quit trying to take all the movers! 1 Million people are “supposed to” move to Portland in the next 25 years.
“The biggest declines came in San Bernardino and Riverside counties, with sales in San Bernardino County off 46.7 percent from a year earlier and Riverside County down 45.1 percent, according to DataQuick.”
“Bill Velto, manager of Tarbell Realtors in Upland, said that despite a large amount of inventory on the market, more than half of it is overpriced.”
I am sure that Billy is smoking Crack.
Last check 100% (overpriced) is more than half, so technically his statement is accurate.
hmm. Could it be the inventory is growing because of this “overpriced-ness”?
Nah. Couldn’t be.
The short explanation for the “stickness” of RE prices on the way down is that sellers believe that selling their home at a profit is a God-given right.
Just wait till August when the sky high inventory really starts to weigh on prices, as people realize their home is not going to sell in time for the new school year.
Velto is out of his mind. There are places in the IE where you have many for sale signs next to each other with many of the houses quickly deteriorating.
“‘We’re looking at about 60 percent of homes for sale that are priced higher than buyers are currently willing to pay,’ he said. ‘I believe we have transitioned and are now two or three months into a buyers’ market.’”
2 or 3 months, eh, Bill? Well, I can’t wait to see how it will look in 6 months. Better yet, let’s party down next May!
They sure don’t make math or even simple economics a requisite to get a realtor’s license, do they?
He’s beyond dope.
The buyers market bs just kills me. This market is NOT a buyers market. If anything sellers still maintain the upper hand and prices remain new their all time highs.
Based on my observations it looks like the wishing prices have actually gone much higher than they were last year. I have a feeling that they are trying to set the bar so high that when (not if) prices start to tumble a drop of 50% will still net sellers a profit provided they have any equity.
Another observation from browsing redfin.com was that there are an awful lot of empty houses out there. I wonder how long these sellers can carry those houses?
Based on my observations it looks like the wishing prices have actually gone much higher than they were last year.
————————–
I’m seeing the same thing in North County San Diego, ed! Wish I could say otherwise.
Indeed, I drove through Lake Elsinore last weekend and an entire street had “for sale” signs on it. The area looked pretty depressed.
Wouldn’t it be easier if we just had “not for sale” signs on the few houses not for sale, and any house without a sign would be automatically assumed for sale. It sure would clean up the clutter quite a bit.
I had a small cottage on the lake in Elsinore in 98-99, I can tell you that at that time a 2000 sf house could be purchased for $110K. Today, the same are priced at $400 - 500K. Elsinore is not as bad as some make out, but the income there does not support the current prices by a factore of three.
“The people who can afford to be in the market are the ones who are savvy and they are waiting for a good deal.’”
i.e. HBBers.
Good deal=40-50% off
Perhaps Velto did not have to take the California highschool exit exam.
I remember John Husing basically saying, about a year or two ago, that the IE economy (not just housing) was basically recession-proof because it was so diversified. He has dramatically backed off those statements, and now acknowledges that there are problems in the IE.
Velto is a fool if he really believes that San Bernardino housing is recession-proof. Just look at the sales, inventory, and (most importantly) the foreclosures there (and the trend for all three). Prices there (as in all of SoCal) are totally out of whack, and they will revert to the mean.
Seems like the words of Upton Sinclair are appropriate here for Mr. Velto: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.”
He is not the only one on something in the IE. One city keeps jerking everyones chain by gong through the motions to develope almost 8200 acres of housing. That’s right 8200 acres at one time. They just put out a bid package to build all the infrastructre. Over 16 miles of streets, sewer,water,gas,electricity,phone,storm drain, etc. The boss made me waste my time working on this project. All they do is find out what the current costs are, then figure out if there is enough of a margin they can gouge the home builders for. They turn around and ask the home builders if they are willing to spend that much money in two years. Up until the sub-prime meltdown they would all say yes give me more land to build on. I think this time around they will tell these guys to go fly a kite. They are walking away from finished parcels now. But they keep kicking this rock down the road not ever asking why build over 7200 new housing units when the IE has 3 to 4 times that many empty and for sale now.
The IE economy is “diversified” alright: half of them drive to O.C., the other half drive to L.A. Not to mention all the high-paying food service jobs right there at home.
“The IE economy is “diversified” alright: half of them drive to O.C., the other half drive to L.A. Not to mention all the high-paying food service jobs right there at home.”
John Husing was a big cheerleader for the IE up to late last year when the nasty stats and evidence started to accumulate that the IE is in a heap of trouble.
IE is first or second in the nation in foreclosure rates. Lots of jobs are low-paying service jobs. All that construction which was the driver for the IE so-called booming economy is receding back, as IE companys scale back on construction spending and cut back workers in response to dwindling demand for IE housing.
Even the warehouse/logistics sector will slow down if a recession, which looks more and more evident, causes a big drop in consumer spending nationwide.
SW riverside has the largest porportion of commuters as it has the fewest no of jobs of all the Scal regions. It also has the largest amt of new housing unsold inventory. Therefore expect SW riverside to see really big drops in prices, as is evident by the 2.2 % yoy decline at the peak spring selling season.
SAn bernardino county section of the IE has more jobs that SW Riverside Cty(mostly low-paying jobs), though it is the poorer region demographically and has more blighted industrial tracts as well as large grimy trucking/warehouse operations.
It therefore is a bit more diversified but the average level of pay in SB is pretty low, and the porportion of impoverished welfare folks and illegals is greater in SB than in any other Scal county.
SB is a mess: average housing prices should drop down to less than $150,000 unless the Gov’t decides to open the border floodgates and cram 2-3 miilion more ilegals into SB, which would indeed keep up the kousing prices as 2-4 illegal alien families will pitch in and buy those IE crappers, or provide a huge pool of renters, thus allowing Fb;ers to hang onto their overpriced POS’s.
Another point to make about the IE employment figures(Lies) is that a significant porportion of the good-paying IE jobs(Itself a small % of the total IE jobs sector)are Independent Contracters in the construction trades, most of them related to housing construction and maintenance. These I/C’s may or may not show up in the CA employment stats as regular salaries employees. Thus the distortion of the IE claims of low(4.5%)employment.
AS constuction work declines in the IE, the IC’s will pull in far less money and contribute less to the IE economy thru consumer spending, thus leading to a vicious cycle of still more IE economic contraction. And/or the IE contractors may have to shift to regular low-paying salaried jobs barely above minimum wage, thus keeping the IE employment stats at a distorted high level.
There are really only two significant localized private sector IE jobs sectors which pay relatively decent incomes: construction and Class A truck drivers.
Both of these good-paying jobs/sectors highly variable and unsteady sources of income. The rest of the IE jobs sector is low-paying non-union service, warehouse, sweatshop, light industrial processing, local delivery, hospitality, local burger flipper,eateres,maids, janitors, custodians, bus drivers, ect.
The IE may be a diversified economy, but it is only diversified in the variety of low-level jobs. There is not even one aero-industry nor any manufacturing at all in all of the IE, just some non-union industrial processing operations(juice and food mills, metal alterations, chemical processing, ect). These are also found in LA county, but they all employ mostly non-union illegals, green carders at barely above minimum wages. Not a solid base to sustain 1/2 million average Scal housing prices.
All of Velto’s comments are just meaningless salesman dribble…
‘At this point, at least, San Bernardino County housing is recession-proof.’”
He may be right… San Berdo may slip directly into a Depression…and bypass the Recession stage altogether
Tombstone housing shadow, Nobody did their math
Tombstone housing shadow, stretching across our path
Ev’ry time I get some good news, Ooh,
There’s a Velto’s distortions, selling me some realtor smack
Saw the gypsy realtor, way down in San Berdoo
Said, I saw the lippy realtor, way down in San Berdoo
Six percent commision on the table, Ooh,
Keep me ‘way from buying a tomb
Oh!, Oh!
“He may be right… San Berdo may slip directly into a Depression…and bypass the Recession stage altogether”
Great Point!
Upton Sinclair
Or was that Sinclair Lewis?
folks w money are moving out of CA as illegals are moving in= recession
I’m still desperate for a job….the bust is not happening here in NYC, yet
Well, the realtors certainly are not giving ground, they seem to believe they have a divine right to that 5 or 6% off the top - based upon the vicious responses by these brokers are making to Sunday’s CBS 60 MINUTES report of deep discounters
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/05/11/60minutes/main2790865.shtml?source=mostpop_story#ccmm
125 pages of realtor BS. Yech.
Have probably said this before: the properties I finance turn over frequently. Never ever ever is a RealtorTM involved. There are a few “finders” floating around in these trailer parks. Typically the “finder” takes 1% of the purchase price, and sometimes assists with such details as informing people of the need to record the deed if it’s just a quitclaim. If I get involved as a lender, I often require them to go through a title ins co (of their own choosing), costing them another 1%-2%. Realtor? Never ever ever.
Have probably said this before:
About as many times as I have read the Upton Sinclair quote. They are Trailers, f..ing trailers.
And this is coming from people who are supposedly professionals, many college-educated. As I have said before, what happens with the behavior of people who work with shovels, hammers, etc. when their incomes disappear…keep your powder dry.
I posted on there and gave them a piece of my mind. The Realtor™ industry is a complete and utter racket. Many on our team posted to refute the Realtor Nonsense™ and the NAR Party Line™.
I think it’s a racket. Here’s why:
I made a lowball offer through a realtor on a fixer on acreage in WA. The offer was rejected. It just so happens that the realtors husband is a builder/rehabber, and they are “investors”. Due to certain circumstances, I am suspicious they may have made an offer above mine, and bought the place themselves. I won’t know until it is public record, but if it’s indeed true, I am going to try to sue the pants off the brokerage. There is more to the story, but I’ll leave it at that. The people in the industry are not on the up and up.
“The Realtor™ industry is a complete and utter racket.”
I agree, and here’s why:
I made a lowball offer through a realtor on a fixer on acreage in WA. The offer was rejected but here’s the twist. The realtors husband is a rehabber/builder and they are “investors”. Due to certain circumstances, I have a sneaking suspicion they may have outbid me, and purchased the house themselves in order to flip it. I won’t know until it is recorded, but if this is indeed the case, I plan on suing the pants off the brokerage, if at all possible. The industry is rife with fraudsters and scammers.
How many time have we heard “If they would go that low, I’d buy it” and then mysteriously another offer appears.
Give’em hell Bear
My apologies for the double post. They didn’t show up for hours.
I’ve been following the comments on the CBS website ever since the show aired. Most of the comments are from real estate agents and are absolutely hilarious. The ones I love the best are ones where realtors compare themselves to other professionals, especially doctors: you wouldn’t operate on your own heart, would you? So why would you want to sell your own house?
The comments seem very one-sided right now, seeing as they’re mostly coming from realtors. How about some bubble blogger comments? Come on, let’s take over the site!
That’s what I’ve been doing, brotha…
Realtwhores™ are simply glorified thieves who take an exam on how to steal stealthily and get away with it.
Rikki - posted this just now.\
Realtors are the most overpaid employees in the nation. As asset inflation has driven the prices of houses to absurd levels, Realtors were advising many to buy, “Real Estate never goes down”. What reasonable person would trust a group of known liars?
As has been mentioned many times in these pages, technology has driven the price of goods down across the board, but the NAR has steadfastly denied that they could do it for less.
60 Minutes did not give the Realtors the *ss kicking it deserves. Thankfully the Federal Government is investigating and if, like Marc Dann in Ohio, they decide to prosecute under the RICO act. Sayonara
I lied - got this error message
“The Publish button will be enabled shortly. We have temporarily disabled it so everyone has an opportunity to comment.”
I say we stick a wooden staked, for sale sign through their very hearts and kill the beast…
Rikki - I would, but there’s just too many pages there, and I’m losing my will to live with it all - if only all that moral indignation could be harnessed, we’d probably come up a renewable energy source….
BTW - observer - what page is your comment on? I’ll definately go and check it out.
Using realtor logic: “You wouldn’t operate on your own heart, would you? So why would you want to wipe your own ass?”
everythings negotiable……
6% is more like a guidline for the stupid and lazy…..
those starving realtors are gonna be sellin for whatever piece of the action they can possibly get…..which in my opinion is squat, nada, zero, zilch……phttoowe (angry spitting)
When the market gets tough they’ll stand in line to pay 10% all the while giving discount brokers the finger.
And it’s all Inland Empire adjacent, I might add…
“Velto says the county could be the most recession-proof market in the Southland. ‘There are 3.5 million people supposed to be moving into Southern California the next 10 years,’ he said. ‘At this point, at least, San Bernardino County housing is recession-proof.’”
He forgot to mention that 3.4 million of those are going to be sneaking across the Mexican border.
He may actually have a point –what, with all the mortgages-for-illegals programs from BofA, etc. Unfortunately, almost as many CA natives are moving out. Also, the current inflow rate is highly dependent upon low-pay/low-skill jobs being plentiful. If the economy slides into a deep recession, this assumption is highly suspect.
“On Saturday, more than 1,200 people turned out for an auction of nearly 100 foreclosed homes at the San Diego Convention Center. Among the successful buyers was renter SueAnn Miller of Rancho Bernardo.”
“Initially, Miller was happy with the condo she purchased during a fevered bidding session. Yesterday, she was having second thoughts. Eager to stop renting, Miller said she might have paid too much.”
“‘I was looking for a deal,’ she said. ‘I probably rushed into it too quick.
———
I believe this is called “the Winner’s Curse”.
well, at least she’s not a bitter renter anymore!
Talk about cutting both hands, your face, and a getting a nice clean shave all the way down to her toes with that falling knife.
Winning the bid does not mean this is a done deal. Buyers remorse at auctions is over 50%. When the deed gets transferred to the new owner, then we have a sale. NOT NOW!
Remorse Code
Unless a job change requires the move, it’s probably not worth the time and expense, he said.”
Job-related moves don’t REQUIRE one to buy a house.
Realtors are trying to control inventory by that statement plus they don’t want to waste time with sellers that won’t discount .
They want hard up sellers ,with enough equity to pay the realtors fees and closing costs .Limit the competition is the name of the game .
Remember when the NAR was advising Realtors to not put signs up so buyers wouldn’t know how many listings there were.
so make the realwhore happy- discount 6% and ditch their flabby asrse
“Remember when the NAR was advising Realtors to not put signs up so buyers wouldn’t know how many listings there were.”
Wiz-
That wasn’t NAR that was the a$$hat Gary Watts
Sammy, I think the guy is saying “it’s probably not worth the time and expense” of SELLING your house unless a job change suggests it. He is trying to dissuade people from selling just to lock in equity gains. Well, ha ha, we know that selling just to lock in equity gains might actually be a very good idea!
Right , you would have to believe that the market has reached bottom to not be concerned about cashing out your equity gains .
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes16may16,1,3674550.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true
“Southern California home sales plunged to a 12-year low in April, suggesting that the region’s real estate slump is far from over.
Prices were up overall, rising 6.1% from a year earlier to a median of $505,000, according to data released Tuesday.”
WTF? How can prices continue to go up at this healthy rate?
Prices aren’t going up, just the median is because the sales mix is skewing towards more higher priced properties. The low end is getting killed in sales volume (too many people priced out; others can’t qualify for loans anymore), so the median rises. Take a look at prices per sq. ft. to get a better (though not perfect) gauge of prices (price per sq. ft. does not reflect the quality or location, but at least it adjusts for bigger houses being sold).
Excellent analysis…..
others have discussed this before. The Median is going up. Here’s why:
Last year people said “Hey I can get a loan to buy a house, and they’ll let me have $475,000 to do it!” So they went out and bought homes for $475,000.
This year, subprime is getting killed. Thus, the lower end buyer can’t get a loan to buy a house. Therefore, those who CAN get a loan, are able to get a loan for more. (in this case 6.1% more). SO they say “Hey, I can get a loan for $505,000 to buy a house”.
Let’s say for argument’s sake that they buy an average 3Br 2Ba 1500 sq ft house with $475,000.
This year, each individual house is cheaper… however, the people who can afford to get a loan have more money to spend.
They thus take that $505,000 and buy a nicer home than they would have been able to last year.
SO instead of buying a 3BR 2Ba house with 1500 sq ft, they may buy instead a 4BR 3ba house with 2000 sq ft for $505,000
THis makes the median go up, when the actual individual homes are selling for less.
Oops, mistake in my post.
The FIRST guy used his 475,000 loan to buy the 3Br 2Ba place.
The SECOND guy used his 505,000 loan to buy the 4Br 3Ba place.
Sorry for confusion.
Better than the word for word from the St Louis Federal reserve that took 3 pages to say the same thing.
“‘I was looking for a deal,’ she said. ‘I probably rushed into it too quick.’”
“When the tide inexplicably retreated from the beach in Thailand, I rushed down to collect all the pretty sea shells that lay exposed. A few minutes later I heard a roar like an oncoming freight train, and saw a gigantic wall of water bearing down me.”
The housing tsunami. Hint: The recent buyers are the the guy picking up shells on the beach….
http://youtube.com/watch?v=C4lpIaSraPE
“‘The market is retreating again, unfortunately,’ said local real estate analyst Peter Dennehy. ‘The people who can afford to be in the market are the ones who are savvy and they are waiting for a good deal.’”
Did I read this correctly. Something like “the only smart ones buying, are the ones who aren’t buying”?
‘The people who can afford to be in the market are the ones who are savvy and they are waiting for a good deal.’”
Uh, I think they’re not in the market, dude.
Yes, he’s saying the smart money is staying out…..
‘The people who can afford…………” Meaning, I guess, that the only people in the market either
1) aren’t savvy
2) can’t afford it
The subprime collapse is pretty much keeping groups 1) and 2) out of the market. The only folks I see buying either have very such large bank that potential changes in market value don’t matter much (e.g., trust fund babies), or move-up buyers with accumulated equity that is at risk even if they stay put. Of course, by moving up at the moment, they increase exposure to a given percentage drop in market values, but it is also conceivable that the War on Savers turns out to be wildly successful, driving home price inflation through the roof again and making them look far more savvy than bubble bears.
GS,
I am starting to think you are secretly in favor of a war on savers, and another surge in prices.
“I am starting to think you are secretly in favor of a war on savers, and another surge in prices.”
I try not to become too enamored of my own narrow perception of what is likely to occur, lest I make the same mistake of those who said “real estate always goes up.”
And I am also aware of historical examples of reflating bubbles (before the ultimate crash of the South Sea Bubble, Sir Isaac Newton was lured into panic buying, and lost the fortune he made when he cashed out after the first bubble top).
Nonetheless, with a glut of homes on the market (including millions of vacant homes), continued new building into an obvious bust, an ongoing used home inventory correction, tightening credit qualification standards, a negative national savings rate for 24 straight months, a broken home equity ATM machine, the recent collapse of 67 or so subprime lenders, a 40% recession in residential construction,
a softening economy, above-2%-target inflation and many economic indicators coming out at levels not seen since 1990-1991 (during a bad recession and the onset of the last RE bust), I have a very hard time envisioning where the impetus for a reflation would come from.
And I don’t think the resurgent stock market bubble will get the job done, as stock market wealth is too narrowly concentrated among those who already own houses in the $5m on up price range.
What Could Save the Housing Market
By Rich Toscano
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
The speculative housing bubble that launched San Diego home prices so high is now in the process of deflating. Prices have been on the decline for over a year, but they remain well above the levels that would be justified by the economic fundamentals now that the bubble-era forces of rampant buyer optimism and unsustainably lax lending are disappearing before our eyes.
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2007/05/16/opinion/01toscano051607.txt
Getstucco has hit the essential fundamentals of what is going on. Today alone I was hired by clients giving back 15 homes in San Diego through BK cases. The subprime problems have now leaked into the Alt-A loans. The AAA lenders are heavily invested in the subprime and Alt-A’s so they will have challenges as well. This will reach up the food chain. I’ve said it before that the last housing downturn of the ’90s was caused by the recession but this time the housing mess will be the cause of the next depression. . .
Toscano’s scenario simply wouldn’t work.
Having ceded control to foreigners, the Fed is powerless to lower rates or print money. To do so would immediately destroy the dollar. Trust me, they do not want to go there.
Rich wrongly assumes that the only consequences to such actions would be mild, if not positive.
3) Have to have it now. Like my ex (bless her, though, she really is a good person! - just has to have it now. She deserves it.)
savvy and waiting = not buying
The not so mighty Sierra Nevada snowpack, you ask?
Sittting on an average of 1 inch, as I type.
http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/nsa/index.html?region=Sierras&year=2007&month=5&day=16&units=e
This time last year? 14.4 inches…
Northern Wisconsin is in drought conditions. Very worrisoME
And with the BWCA on fire it does not bode well for the summer.
AZ in drought mode too. The campgrounds near Flagstaff opened 2 weeks ago. Fire restrictions to be in place within a week banning camp fires.
Looks like another no camping season for me.
Its already bone dry. Good thing your resevoirs are full.
They aren’t…
Hetch Hetchy, about this time last month was sitting on 27% of capacity.
Maybe people in SoCal will have to stop washing their cars. Naw…
- Ex NorCal
That’s the pure insanity of it. Our reservoirs, according to EMWD at least, are full.
Here in Broward Co (South FLA) we just went phase III rationing, first time ever which means yard watering once a week only. Lake Okechobee is way below normal levels… plus half of the state’s counties are on fire.
“‘There are more and more people now who are at the lower end of the market who aren’t able to qualify for loans because of the tightening, which isn’t a bad thing, but it doesn’t help (the general market),’ Dennehy said.”
It certainly does help the general market. One of the biggest problems with the San Diego market in particular and the Southern California market in general is a lack of affordability, thanks to lenders who made loans to enable many customers to purchase homes they could not afford. A reinstitution of loan underwriting standards will provide the dual benefits of preventing many future financial suicides which might otherwise have occurred, and helping to narrow the huge gaps between household incomes and home prices. This will help the labor market as well, as qualified workers will no longer avoid taking positions in SoCal due to unaffordable housing.
It’s all good!
“The market isn’t healthy, but it isn’t completely falling apart either,”
Ed Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast
I would hate to be within 100 miles of Ed Leamer when he says “the housing market did fall apart”. Probably a 9.5 earthquake.
The UCLA Anderson forecast used to be decent research.
Only when Chris Thornberg was there. Since he left they’ve been as useless as our RE tools over here at USC.
In fairness, Leamer called the bubble back when I was deeply skeptical (2003 or earlier), on the basis of the “P/E ratio” for housing (market value / amount for which a home could be rented). The P/E ratio kept going up quite a bit from the level he said was indicative of a bubble.
Yep. Leamer was one of the original bears. For some reason (?????), he seems to have changed his tune over the past year or two.
One more round of layoff, affecting Orange County.–>
Option One Cutting Jobs, Offices
Option One Mortgage Corp., the Irvine subprime mortgage lender that’s being sold by H&R Block Inc., is cutting 600 jobs and combining offices, according to trade publication National Mortgage News
Bill Velto (of Tarbell Realtors) commented, “60% of houses are overpriced.” Makes you wonder how many of those 60% of overpriced houses he sold with the phrase, “Now is a good time to buy.” There is an answer to this if buyers have the b*lls to use it. When one of these scummy realtors use that phrase, the come back is: “Okay, I’ll take your advice and buy - on one condition. You put a clause in the contract which states that if the price drops in the next 12 months, YOU pay the difference.” I would LOVE to hear the realtorwhores answer to that.
So the other 40% are reasonably priced? So Bill is trying to imply 40% of houses are NOT overpriced. Give me a break. I suppose someone is still out there buying, but I cannot imagine who.
The other 40% are extremely overpriced.
Some fools who can’t read or write english
I don’t want to imply that the housing market is bad, but…
I heard that habitat for humanity has been deconstructing houses, lately.
A nephew asked me to make a contribution to H-for-H last fall. I told him I questioned the need for building ANYthing. He never responded; in all seriousness, what do you guys think?
I love H4H and would do more with them if they weren’t so damn religous. If they want my effort, they need to quit with the opening prayer bit.
I’ve helped build 9 houses with H4H, and the only time I had to listen to a prayer was when they were turned over to their new owners.
“‘Most sellers just aren’t that desperate,’ Doughty said.”
YET, Doughty. Most sellers just aren’t that desperate, YET.
I smell desperation,
MMAB
Yup, just give it time, Molly:
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/storage/reset.png
San Diego data for April:
http://www.sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/04statistics.html
That report is sweet — thanks for that!
Here are some eyecatching summary stats on SFR sales which pretty much reveal how well the red-hot San Diego spring sales season is going:
New April SFR Listings
- Number = 4082
- Total value (by wishing price) = $3.387 billion
Sold April SFRs
- Number = 1440
- Total value (by sold price) = $1.088 billion
So there was a $2.299 billion gap between the sellers’ self-assessed value of new SFR listings and what buyers purchased, over one month’s time — over a 3-1 ratio of new listing value to sales. Does anyone else detect a slight problem there?
Definitely, but I find it interesting that the average price actually paid is about $750K so not TERRIBLY different from the average wishing price of $830K. Of course, as others have pointed out, this may not reflect “how much house” was gotten for the money paid. My point really is, some are still buying and probably think they’re investing wisely. ?!?!
More locally, I see the following April stats on newly listed and sold SFRs for our zip (92127):
New listings = 86
Median SFR list price for new listings = $1,150,000 (versus a current median listing price of $1,297,000 on ziprealty.com — down by $2K since yesterday, BTW).
Sales = 38
Median sale price = $725,000
Gap between number of new listings and sales:
86 - 38 = 48
Gap between median new listing price and median sale price:
$1,150,000 - $725,000 = $425,000.
Those numbers are not sustainable, and indicate a local market in rapid equilibrium adjustment.
My other take on the April Sandicor report on San Diego SFR sales activity is not showing up, so just in case it is lost in cyberspace, I reiterate:
New SFR listings = 4082
Total value (by wishing price) = $3,386,706,948
Average wishing price for new listings = $829,669
SFRs sold = 1440
Value of sales (by sold price) = $1,088,165,394
Average sold price = $755,670.
It will be interesting to compare that average to whatever DataQuick coughs up for April…
The REO’s are moving up on the Central Coast.
Not a peep from the local rags - shocking.
http://centralcoasthousingbubble.blogspot.com/
I wish someone would tell SF and the Bay Area prices are falling, because even despite the crashing sales volume prices appear to be rising in SF. Can someone explain the continued soaring median in SF in the face of a negativce CSI?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/05/16/BAGM6PS5B58.DTL
“Prices for existing Bay Area homes rose a robust 6.6 percent in April, even though the pace of homes sold slowed by almost 20 percent, according to a report released today from a real-estate information service.
The number of single-family resale homes that changed hands in the nine-county region in April was 5,015, down 19.9 percent from 6,263 a year ago, DataQuick Information Services said. It was the 27th month in which sales declined, and the lowest sales count since April 1995. The April average is 9,614.
Despite the anemic sales pace, prices continued to rise, hitting a record $659,000 for all houses and $720,000 for resale homes. Prices rose in six counties, but fell in the area’s furthest-out counties: Napa, Solano and Sonoma.
In Marin County, the median price for resale homes was $1,010,000 in April, up 3.8 percent from last year. It was the first time any California county has passed the million-dollar mark.
New-home sales underwent a reverse scenario. Sales pace declined just 3.4 percent, but prices fell 2.2 percent to $619,000. Resale condo prices rose 5.8 percent, although sales volume was down 22.4 percent.
Counting both new and resale homes and condos, 7,447 were sold in April, down 10.5 percent from March and down 18.4 from April last year. “
greater volume of high priced SFR/Condos moving than lower priced SFR/Condo……skews numbers higher…..cant think, danger, danger Will Robinson
Exactly. Despite what others claim, and especially despite our local rag…the Marin IJ… condos and other “cheaper” abodes in Marin County got killed last month. It was Kentfield (either the most expensive town in Marin or the second depending on which side of the road you stand on) totally supported the county average/median with its very unusually large number of houses sold along with a little help by expensive houses in Mill Valley.
‘Can someone explain the continued soaring median in SF in the face of a negativce CSI?’
Sure, prices aren’t even going up, much less soaring. DQ explained that yesterday.
We letting Dairy Queen call the shots now, has it come to this?
they explained it for Southern Cal … all real estate is local … I have been watching this numbers for almost 2 years and can’t believe how far out of whack they are but I also can’t believe after 27 months of negative sales volume in Northern Cal that prices haven’t been impacted more
That’s because the credit didn’t really begin to dry up until March with the subprime implosion.
“Can someone explain the continued soaring median in SF in the face of a negativce CSI?”
Yes, liars figure?
Well, I have been paying attention, less to these figures that pop up in articles, and more to what is actually happening around me. I’m in Livermore, which is the farthest east you can get in the Bay Area. All the houses near me that are for sale have been on the market for more than a year now and have gone through multiple price reductions. I take the flyers when I go out on my daily walks. One went from 925 to 898 to 849 to 825 and I think it’s still not selling. I’m just sittin’ back, takin’ my time, and watching the prices go down, down, down … it’s quite a show, but I know that I won’t even consider buying until after 2012, after the smoke clears from the subprime meltdown. He he =o)
Nice write-up calling the bluff on the official statistics:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2007/0516.html
“The newest deceptions are with jobs and housing. Each is much worse than reported. The housing decline might be as much as 15% worse than reported, which leads to much bigger job loss than is reported. Most of the home construction job loss is under the table, to people not on state jobless insurance programs, and to immigrant workers paid in cash.”
…
“HOUSE SECTOR IS CRASHING
Every reason looms large that housing data is equally inaccurate as most other major economic statistics. Whether intentionally falsified or incompetently calculated by the National Assn of Realtors (NAR), it is irrelevant. Call it financial engineering. My guess is again a premeditated doctoring of the statistics, since their motive is so clear, to sell homes. In a worse declining market, sales would halt, pure and simple. We are in an age where those parties with the worst, most egregious, vested interest are given charge of assembling, calculating, and reporting their own statistics. This is laughable. Imagine the mafia in charge of reporting on crime levels, or children in school reporting on actual valid sickness and missed days in class.!
Both existing home sales and new home sales data are providing misleading national sales information. The new home curve ball involves cancellations, which are not properly recorded in current data. The housing market has declined much more sharply than is being reported, like 13% to 15% worse. When looking to confirm data, a triangular method is effective, meaning related and supporting information must be consistent. It is not. Look to other sources of information, and attempt to confirm or refute the aggregate. One inconsistency is possible, but not a set of inconsistent figures that presents itself. Independent research outfit John Burns Real Estate Consulting sampled 181 key counties with just over half of the US population where the large home builders are active. Their work is the most comprehensive and well organized to cross my desk (thanks to intrepid hound Kevin F).
Home sales have fallen 22% on a 12-month basis versus the prior 12 months, in reality. On a simple year-over-year monthly comparison, the decline is even worse. Contrast that to a mere 10% in the compromised NAR reports. It is hard to call theirs or USGovt’s work analysis, when it is more like a fraudulent marketing promotional effort.
1) Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) seasonally adjusted purchase application index is down 18% from its peak in September 2005. Not all applications are accepted, and oftentimes people fill out more than one. So how could reported sales have fallen by less than 18%, by NAR data? This not only makes no sense, but nobody seems to question it. Applications are NOT final sales, and furthermore, canceled sales make for even worse final sales figures. Go with confirmed sale closings, which is available but not utilized by the NAR. Suspect a vested interest in keeping a favorable spin!
2) DR Horton and Lennar, two largest homebuilders in the United States, have announced orders being down 27% to 37%, on an annual basis. The parent company of the group Century 21 serves as another excellent triangular data point. Their subsidiaries Coldwell Banker and ERA accounted for roughly 1.9 million brokerage related transactions in 2006 compared to 2.3 million in 2005. That comes to an annual decline of 18% nationwide. The NAR state data does cite big corrections in three major states: 28% drop in Florida, 24% drop in California, and a 28% drop in Arizona. The independent data shows the sales have probably dropped by 34%, 27% and 38%, respectively on final sale basis.”
ALL the statistics as far as I am concerned for the U.S. are cooked. There is NO WAY the true unemployment rate and inflation are below 10%. Garbage, garbage, garbage, garbage, GARBAGE!
The Fed cooks the stats worse than Enron.
Hear, hear! My wife tells me that we need a bigger grocery budget, as prices are rising quickly. This is especially noticeable at warehouse clubs like CostCo and Sams.
I’m seeing higher prices here in Portland, OR too. In fact, groceries were CHEAPER on my visit to Yosemite Valley!!!
Oregon has no sales tax…only a stupid tax. Sigh. Retailers love us.
Here in Marin County, I can barely believe my eyes when I check out at the grocery store. Everything has gone up, and I mean noticeably.
You can thank the nation’s biofuel policy and the oil market for that. Corn prices rose high on ethanol demand, and as corn is one of the most basic foodstocks in the US, this drove the price of food up. Combine that with increased transportation costs, the die-off of bees, and drought-like conditions in many growing areas, and bingo, high grocery prices.
Interestingly enough, food/energy costs as a percentage of income are returning to historical levels (though still incredibly low). The problem with that is that the price of housing, consumer spending, and student loan education debt took up the extra slack in the household budget. And I don’t see Sallie Mae lowering my stduent loan payments due to gas prices increasing.
Something has to give.
I second that!!! Prices for EVERYTHING have more than doubled in seven years (housing, healthcare premiums, grocery bills….)
Everything except RENTS. (Thank goodness.)
Excellent post. Thank you for that analysis.
~Misstrial
You are right about the stats. I have noticed prices slowly drifting down in Fremont, CA. Because of misinformation lot of people believe they have more RE equity and try to extract it on the way out. This will stall the market, but then you get the foreclosed property in places like San Jose. Even though you have the FB in denial believing everything will be Okay, and finally having to face upto a real loss when it is sold. The FB probably believes they were F*d by cirumstance of having to sell in 2007, otherwise, they would be fine.
“The newest deceptions are with jobs and housing. Each is much worse than reported.”
Whatever it takes to avoid reporting the economy is in a recession and the real estate market is in a bust…
The newest in California Condos!
http://www.funnyordie.com/v1/view_video.php?viewkey=ed11717eaec9305b2feb
sadly, I worked in commercial roofing and had to fire two employees for having sexual relations in a port-potty……
it was horrible…….the female roofer coming out all tattered, smeared in pookie (thats a roofing term for plastic cement)
Why did you have to fire them?
It was his wife
It was his wife
I was starting to dread each new post, median prices, Realtors and Government workers not telling the truth, bla bla bla, until your post, still laughing.
why fire em’
uhhm, maybe because during working hours you shouldnt be “bangining one out” in the sh*tter…..
call me old fashioned.
I hope it wasn’t coal tar pitch pookie. The would burn!!
“Most sellers just aren’t that desperate”
Because most sellers expect that prices will only be down for a little and then climb right up again. Most are not realizing that the chances of these inflation adjusted prices to reappear are nil. Once that realization hits, oh boy…
OTOH, here in Sacramento bubble central, I have from experience and good sources a good reason why you don’t see and probably will not see bad unemployment number (BTW, my wife is from Mexico). Yes, illegal immigration.
I have gone to construction projects were the vast majority of employees were probably illegals. This was something that you would not see here 5 years ago. Some of them stashed the money to go back to Mexico once the ride was over. Some did not and are going to other places to look for work.
And for a segue, the illegals were being paid so well, that some illegal house cleaners are quoting a rate of $15-$20/hr! This we know from personal experience.
Most sellers just aren’t that desperate,’ Doughty said.”
Just wait a year or two. Most sellers will be very desperate…
“Most sellers just aren’t that desperate”
Because most sellers expect that prices will only be down for a little and then climb right up again. Most are not realizing that the chances of these inflation adjusted prices to reappear are nil. Once that realization hits, oh boy…
OTOH, here in Sacramento bubble central, I have from experience and good sources a good reason why you don’t see and probably will not see bad unemployment number (BTW, my wife is from Mexico). Yes, illegal immigration.
I have gone to construction projects were the vast majority of employees were probably illegals. This was something that you would not see here 5 years ago. Some of them stashed the money to go back to Mexico once the ride was over. Some did not and are going to other places to look for work.
And for a segue, the illegals were being paid so well, that some illegal house cleaners are quoting a rate of $15-$20/hr! This we know from personal experience.
I see this in Portland too. The day-labor pickup point I drive past daily has become depopulated. There were usually 20-40 men seeking work at this point last year; now it’s ten or fewer. Word is getting around.
Is there a place in the US where the overwhelming majority of construction workers are NOT illegal aliens?
Yes, Montana. Just came here from the east coast and it was a shock to me. Construction and lawncare are all done by locals (99% white).
Also Maine coast. All white. And all charge $20/hr or more.
I have to disagree with a lot of my bublemates out there. While prices are very inflated there are some limiting factors. A lot of the people in question are not hurting for month to month payments yet. So, they are not forced to sell. Yet.
As the resets keep going and the economy grinds to a halt then the income/job losses will really take a toll.
The REO are going on the market slowly and will pull things down but it will take a good bit of time.
So patience. We are in the third inning of the game. 2008 will be the fourth and fifth innings when the spring sales again fail to materialize and more ARM resets hit.
Brief respite in 09 of flatness followed by epic chaos in 10-11…
In 2012-2013 the survivors will have to pick through the rubble. Probably literaly in LA if things go bad with the illegals.
–
May 16, 2007
CA Home Sales For Apr’07 Down 48.4% From Jun’05 Peak Sales
And down 37.6% from Apr’05 (two years ago). These are all home sales (new, resale, SFH, condos) reported by DataQuick.
This should take a serious bite out of the economy.
Jas
They just won’t give up!
“The good news is that for a buyer in Larimer County, this is probably the best time to buy. Interest rates are low, and property values stable,” Williams said.”
http://www.coloradoan.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070516/BUSINESS/70515023
Exploding inventory,
Soaring foreclosures,
Crashing sales,
Prices near the top of a huge run up and set to crash,
Prices way above cost of rent and historic affordability levels.
If now is a great time to buy, then when is it a bad time to buy?
“If now is a great time to buy, then when is it a bad time to buy?”
I guess that would be the point when everyone you know is saying that real estate is a terrible investment.
My wife reminded me just last night that when we bought a home in the Bay Area in 1996 (tail end of the last bust), some of our new neighbors hinted that we had made a mistake…
it’s a bad time to buy when a realtor goes on a vacation for a month .
“Southern California home sales fell to a 12-year low in April, further evidence that the beleaguered housing market is in transition.”
We have just retraced to the same level as near the end of the last bust, but it is worse than that now, because the population size is much larger, indicating a slower rate of sales now than in 1995.
‘Most sellers just aren’t that desperate,’ Doughty said.”
Surprise..Surprise Molly !
With over-priced POS, rampant REIC Fraud and Taxes UP the Wazhoo, NEITHER are any potential Buyers THAT DESPERATE. Jobs, wages and real Cost of Living…DON’T even go there ladyshill.
“Foreclosures didn’t take an April breather. Last month’s total of 234 foreclosures was the highest since August 1998 and was the fifth consecutive monthly increase. It was up 15 percent from March and 964 percent from a year ago.”
Christopher Thornburg was absolutely right when, in Feb 2006, he said “Is Orange Country different? Yes, they are. They’re going to get HAMMERED when this thing breaks.”
And broken it has, if the foreclosure numbers are any indication.
test
“Velto says the county could be the most recession-proof market in the Southland. ‘There are 3.5 million people supposed to be moving into Southern California the next 10 years,’ he said. ‘At this point, at least, San Bernardino County housing is recession-proof.’”
SUPPOSED to is like saying it has to rain in Southern Calif. Without high paying jobs ,I doubt we will provide them and remain competitive in the world . We cannot qualify for mortgages without these jobs, the housing market will DIE!!!!
“Bonawitz said many of his agents have been advising clients not to sell their houses only to lock in equity gains or move into a more expensive house locally. Unless a job change requires the move, it’s probably not worth the time and expense, he said.”
“‘It’s an issue of timing and pricing,’ he said. ‘You can price a house to sell today, or you can price a house to sell two years from today.’”
This cracks me up! As if they will get more in two years. The statement should be reworded to, “You can price a house to sell today and get screwed, or you can price a house to sell two years from today and get even more screwed.” This bust is going to last at least into the next decade …
Very true.
“You can price a house to sell today,or you can price a house to sell two years from today.” No. My opinion of what price a house might fetch two years from today is, that price would certainly attract a customer today.
2980 Twin Harbors View, Rancho Palos Verdes, 90275
Prices are not going down in certain parts of Los Angeles. Check this out. Price increase one milliont dollars!!!!!
Status: ACT MLS#: S941530 $5,200,000*
List Dt: 02/13/2007 PType: SFR-D Orig Price: $4,100,000
See if you can do a realty trac of this MLS # to track seller. One guess.
Seller has a really hot daughter whose last name begins with a T.
http://tinyurl.com/2psxfm
And if you don’t like this one there are 3 more just like it just down road a bit.
Hahaha sounds like CA is getting a pounding. Who believes the realtor statistics anymore? They try to say that the average house costs 140K where I live. More like 220K from what I see. Realtors are full of it.
Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE:CFC - News), the largest U.S. mortgage lender, plans to add 2,000 sales jobs this year as a housing slowdown batters weaker rivals, Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo said on Monday.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Calabasas, California-based company is also rolling out new products such as reverse mortgages and 50-year subprime loans to pick up market share, Mozilo said at a UBS financial services conference.
“The market is undergoing very turbulent times,” Mozilo said. “Our competition continues to consolidate, and consolidate rapidly.”
Funny that the CEO is selling shares while he pumps this stock. We all know what Wall Street buys, and that is, companies that have the perception of growth companies.
Enron (and Toll Bros) again…
Who wants a 50 year mortgage?
People who think (1) that recently-built homes will last for 50+ years and (2) that inflation will be high for the next 50 years…
Should be for the bucket tomorrow but I thought I would post it here as well.
A friend is selling in McLean, VA. Her house has been on the market for a year. It is an updated original, windows, roof, kitchen and interior. Her realtor told her to drop the price 10% at least (she already cut the price 10%) if she HOPES to sell.
She is in no way mode. I didn’t know what to say.
McLean is a sought after area here in NoVa. That is a big deal.
I’m off 13% in 22151
20% off ought to do it
If she would have cut the price 10% a year ago it would have sold. She will be behind the curve. Better to cut now and sell. The bottom is a long way off.
They don’t learn. My landlord cut his asking price 10% this spring, should’ve done it a year ago.
A fairly nasty real estate led recession/depression (which now appears inevitable) - might have a silver lining in that perhaps FINALLY politicians would have to wake up and actually start enforcing immigration laws thus opening up some additional employment opportunties for american citizens and lawful residents of the United States
My guess is this is why both parties are trying to rush through “comprehensive immigration reform” (de facto amnesty) - because they know the dam is about to burst