Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For May 19, 2007
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Americans Put Their Weakening Dollars to Work Overseas
not quite a vote of confidence for $ assets
Couple Learn the High Price of Easy Credit / NYT
Reit index rolling over….? / chart
America´s fear of China / Economist
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
We have a partially private, partially public organization inflating our dollars - the Fed. Since the Fed cares little for maintaining the dollars value, is it unpatriotic to invest more of your money overseas?
this from brad setser is spot on
To finance that level of outflows and its current account deficit, the US would need to attract about $1400b in inflows. Financing the United States current account deficit is one thing. ..
The current account deficit is the counterpart to China’s current account surplus (read export jobs). Financing capital flight (i.e. portfolio diversification) by US residents is another …
Foreign central bank net purchases of treasuries has been going backwards for the last five weeks. The only thing financing that trade deficit for the last month has been their insatiable appetite for Fannie’s and Freddie’s AAA mortgage paper.
If that’s true, then there’s going to be an interesting dynamic in play if either Fannie or Freddie get into serious difficulties.
There would be a big political temptation to take the populist line and ignore any implicit bond backing if foreigners were seen to be big beneficiaries, no matter how shortsighted such an ‘up yours’ action might be.
After that comment, I can’t get “Oh bondage! Up Yours!” by the X-Ray Specs out of my head.
Where’s Poly Styrene when we need her?
How could it be “unpatriotic” to invest overseas. About 50% of my retirement accounts have been invested in foreign funds for the last three years. Overseas returns have been almost twice the S&P 500. In the future, investing overseas may be the only way to have a reasonable retirement with mutual funds.
spoken like a true traitor.
Sic Temper Finansis
semper I
“Machinists handled much of the research and development Boeing used to make its business case for the 787, then winced as the work got handed off to outside suppliers.
“The rub is always that if we’re good enough to do the R&D, and we can prove that it’s a good process, it should just stay in the skilled hands of the people that develop it,” Kelliher said.
Boeing has said the outsourcing was crucial to keeping development and production costs low enough to make the 787 a good enough bargain that airlines would buy it. ”
http://tinyurl.com/22djny
News May 19,2007
Case proven.
I read an article about how a modern airliner having 4 seperate systems, for oxygen alone, at a cost of around $20k per seat, is being challenged by a $500 competitor, a single computer based system that does what the 4 fail safe systems, (which have worked superbly, you’d have to agree) do, albeit, with travails, unknown, in terms of reliability.
Looking for profit in all the wrong places…
I will avoid the 787 for a few years. Too much unproven technology on those suckers, if you ask me.
It was about a week ago we learned most larger corporations earn 40% of income from foreign markets. Why would we apply the Scarlet T to individuals for doing the same?
Carrie, you beat me to the line. Yes, I most of my equities are in large corporations. Take Paccar, for example, it gets half its business from overseas. To shun large American-based corporations simply because they are American-based is very shortsighted. Nevertheless, 20% of my equities are in pure international stocks - companies based outside the U.S.
What? Me? Worry?
Or how about all the job outsourcing that’s going on? That seems really unpatriotic. I think business has to have a social conscience as well as a profit driven motive. All businesses in the US use the infrastructure, the freedoms, the taxpayer funded educational system, the protection of our military, our police, our social services, etc. etc. as a basis of their business. I think business has some social responsibility to our country. It can’t be all take. I know business pays taxes, but don’t tell me the system isn’t gamed.
Russia 1917 - the revolutionaries had the same sentiment as you - that businesses must have some “social responsibility.” And look where that got them. You can have your choice - “kinder, softer, wussy-er” businesses or a system where innovation and the marvels of technology can thrive. You cannot have both.
Amerika:
Love it, but leave your money somewhere else…
OT, A little “tin foil” concerning Guilianni and his connections to SPP/NAFTA superhighway issues. Disturbing but par for course.
http://www.sierratimes.com/07/05/07/70_189_188_189_68367.htm
Auger-in,
great find….
“the whole story is not only has Mr. Giuliani’s involvement in the NAFTA Superhighway not ever having been publicly addressed, but how a foreign company is awarded the building of a mass highway system, versus maintaining it, for the first time in U.S. history, and negotiated by the law firm of the top Republican candidate running for President of the United States. And truly disturbing is how such will not only have national and homeland security and sovereignty implications but how it is deliberately being kept away from the Halls of Congress.”
I keep my money in an offshore goldmoney account held in the Channel Islands.
Our current monetary system is dishonest, immoral, and blatantly unconstitutional.
So no, it is not unpatriotic to invest your money overseas. It is unpatriotic (and stupid) to keep your money in Federal Reserve Notes.
What is money?
a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of measure.
What is a dollar?
A silver coin containing 371.25 grains of fine silver.
The federal reserve note still functions fine as a medium of exchange. But it has lost 90+% of its value since the Fed was created, so it’s an extremely poor store of value. And good luck trying to define a fed note in terms of being a unit of measure.
Bottom line is the US currency only fulfills one of the three characteristics that are traditionally used to define “money.”
You and me both…. goldmoney holds a chunk of my change, increasing every time the price slides a bit… Honest banking ain’t gonna happen in my lifetime, so I prefer cash offshore, as well as investments, wherever possible.
I’m going to join the offshore club as soon as I get back down to the 40 hour week pace. For now metals are safe in safe deposit boxes here in the U.S. Oh oh…here comes a flurry of conspiracy theory comments saying the gubment is going to zero in on safe deposit boxes when the next crisis hits! Ha!
A friend and I were discussing how much of our retirements were in foreign investments. He said ” I was saddened when I realized that I was engaged in capital flight.”
it’s funny.
for me, “capital flight” is what happened to my 401k when it was invested in US equities in 2001-2003
Sad but funny!
The worst thing is that it is still happening, but with dollar centric thoughts most do not realize it.
Hoz…
So true.
If one dangled 10% interest on cd’s in this country, there’d be a mad dash to invest, by those captivated by the old rules of finance.
I burned my copy of the old rules, years ago.
I would not be to smug about foreign stock investing. When the Dow tanks, the rest of the world will fall further. The world is attached to the USA at the hip. All you have to do is look at every bear market over the last 100 years and you will note the relationship.
History would indicate that the burden of proof rests with those that think they have safety by investing in foreign stock markets. Perhaps our market will tank and the some others will buck the trend. History says that is very unlikely though.
“Their debt escalated when they decided to get married. They paid for rings, a reception, a honeymoon and a new bathroom.”
They must have thought that being married would cause a surge in bowel movements.
Let’s keep going with the Moellerings. They are a wild couple.
“In the last two years they have managed to cut their credit card debt by $20,000, Ms. Moellering said, and have built a savings of about $5,000, thanks to a Christmas gift from a relative.”
Thank goodness for those family gifts. Their Sears card is at 32.24% APR and yet they feel they’ve gotten somewhere because of a $5,000 account that is probably at 3%. They just need to sit tight, make minimum payments, and hope for more family gifts to keep rolling in. That is a perfectly cromulent plan in my books. That should really embiggen their long-term outlook.
Encore encore! They have cut their credit card debt by $20,000 and they are so proud. But earlier in the article it states they have a $68,000 HELOC balance. So they probably paid down the credit card with the HELOC. I didn’t want anybody to think that I should have given these credit junkies credit for that. The last thing they deserve is any more credit.
Haven’t we all lived next to, or been related to, the Moellerings at one time or another? Excuse me while I go have a bowel movement. Marriage does that to a fellow.
“Ms. Moellering, and her husband, Mark, 39, earn average salaries for their age (together about $66,000 a year), ”
“He earns $36,000 a year as a software applications designer.
As foster parents of two children they also receive about $1,200 a month in reimbursement from the State Department of Human Services”
1) Software Applications Designer making $36K. Are they in India? Or is he just this nations most underpaid software designer.
2) $36K + $14.4K = $50K. So she makes $8 an hour?
Yes, credit is being given to people that can’t afford it. Yes, people are being stupid with credit.
But, with all the manufacturing jobs going overseas, what condition would our ecoomy be in without all that “living above our means”?
“But, with all the manufacturing jobs going overseas, what condition would our ecoomy be in without all that “living above our means”?”
We’re about to find out, as the well has to run dry at some point. There is always an end to the credit, for anyone.
1) Software Applications Designer making $36K. Are they in India? Or is he just this nations most underpaid software designer.
You would be surprised at how many programmers are paid this little. Typically they have no degree, work in a small job market for a very small company. I personally know of two people in this situation.
Come on, I have been a software engineer since 1987, and the last time I saw $36K per annum was in 1988.
It depends on where and who you work for. Sure, at the megacorp where I work everyone is paid much more than that. The people I know worked at small companies in small isolated towns where there were 2 or 3 people coding.
NYCboy…
I couldn’t find cromulent nor embiggen in my dictionary. Would you please enlighten us with their meaning?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culturally_significant_phrases_from_The_Simpsons#Cromulent_and_embiggens
Nice reference, NYC.
Maybe the sight of his wife makes him drop a deuce.
I’ve always been interested in investing overseas, my wife has always been opposed. The reason? The rest of the world has bigger demographic/debt problems than we do, and the developing world relies our our buying, so if we go down so do they. Can China, India, and Europe become the locomotive rather than the caboose? Only then will overseas investment help, and only then can we get out of this mess.
“The rest of the world has bigger demographic/debt problems than we do,”
Not any more!
I’ve wondered about the occasional seemingly unquestioning acceptance of overseas investment as a good thing. It was on this blog, summer before last, that some were proponents of Icelandic and New Zealand bonds, both of which subsequently tanked in relative value as their currencies declined against the dollar. Kudos to those who can master the bets on foreign currencies — I sure can’t.
Oh, that’s easy. Just buy bonds of countries with a good long-term record of fiscal prudence and strong domestic savings. The interest rate will be pretty low, but that’s the price of (relative) safety.
Chip, the easiest way to accurately invest in foreign currencies is to listen to our government. When the G says the Yen is undervalued by 30% - it is not wise to be short the Yen for more than a quick trade. Ditto the G says the Euro is overvalued by 20% - not wise to be long the Euro for more than a quick trade. The G has in the past readjusted the currency over night by 5 - 10% (1985 & 1986) against the basket.
Techno, Hoz - thanks. Techno — how long is this list?
Very short. The only country on my list is Switzerland. The best way to invest money in the safest manner there, in my opinion, is through a Swiss franc annuity. They pay a low interest rate but your money is as safe as it can be anywhere, and there are other advantages too. If you want a recommendation for a specific insurance company that I have found to have good customer service, post an email address that I can reply to off-list.
“Can China, India, and Europe become the locomotive rather than the caboose? Only then will overseas investment help, and only then can we get out of this mess.”
According to the IMF the US should have growth this year of 2%, according to the IMF the worlds growth should be 5%. The US is the caboose.
The US/World GDP as a % was 31% in 2000, today it is 28%. The US GDP was 11.2TEuros in 2000 but in 2006 priced is 10T Euros. Love that negative growth.
The US is falling off the world growth ladder and it is only going to get worse. Whether one invests in precious metals (see Aladinsane) or industrial metals (me) - it is hard assets that are in demand. Government bonds, bills and corporate bonds are parking places for cash until hard assets become available to purchase. Looking for a place to put moneys is the reason that ridiculous buyouts are occurring on a daily basis.
I look for hard investments, I am not looking to make moneys - I just do not like losing moneys. My goal is preservation of what I have.
The problem that we all face is that hard assets increase, not because of any increase in value, but because the dollar is inherently weak. There is no increase in purchasing power, yet I will have to pay US taxes on the hard asset increase. An unfair tax on assets I own that if converted back to dollars suggest I made a large profit.
In Aladinsane’s gold scenario (currently) it is very easy to move gold across borders. It is light weight and compact. Nobody ever asks questions. But if one sells the gold, where do you put the moneys? All fiat currencies are in a mess.
Unfortunately, little of your post is true and if US citizens keep waving the stars and stripes as if they were still in John Wayne land, they are in for a very rude wake up call.
First, let’s expose the “everyone wants to come to Amerika” part. Many do not want to come to the US unless they come from some third world toilet and those who do not come from third world toilets come to the US for other reasons like, for instance, the weather, cheaper housing. Yes, property is cheaper here than in many parts of europe.
The world has changed DRASTICALLY in the last 25 years. The USA, basically because of Bush, is now hated around the world. Only Americans seem to think that the Iraq invasion was to bring “Freedom and Democracy” because they are brain washed into thinking that was the reason. The rest of the world knows it was an excuse to steal and control middle east oil. However, it went badly wrong and the damage done to the USA financially and image-wise is massive. The days of the rest of the world looking on America as the “good guy” have gone.
Economically, America has become a massive debtor and is fast becoming a country of two classes, the haves and have nots, as the strength of America, the middle class, declines. However, if you watch brain washing US tv as it continually spews out it’s vapid, brain washing news, you would think that the US is still # 1 in economic and military power. It isn’t. The majority of jobs being created are either government jobs or service related jobs which are not well paid. Generous employer pensions have gone. Medical coverage by employers is diminishing and becoming more expensive. America’s medical system is a joke. The quality of US health care is dropping and is very expensive when compared to other western nations. America is somewhere around 15th in the world when it comes to health care. The drug companies use corrupt US politicians (and there are plenty of them these days) to keep the price of drugs higher than in any other country in the western world. Here’s an example of how “the powers” in the USA skew the facts. The US auto industry is in deep trouble but the truth is, which they fail to report, is that the US auto industry should not even be in business anymore. Why? Because if the US government and the individual states and the military didn’t buy GM and Ford vehicles, GM and Ford would have gone out of business several years ago. Just a simple fact which US tv and news outlets leave out because they are too busy reporting that Paris Hilton is going to jail or Brittany Spears was seen not wearing panties.
Militarily, one would think from watching tv that nobody can stand up to US firepower. The Iraq war has shown the world that isn’t true. Insurgents who are using worn out AK.47’s can bring powerful and expensive firepower to it’s knees and don’t be fooled by tv stories about the US winning in Iraq. The US has lost that war and over 3,000 young Americans. Because of Bush, Iraq has created thousands of radical US hating muslims who will breed thousands of more over the years to come. Worse, they are only split into hundreds, possibly thousands, of individual cells which makes it hard to track them.
China. Make no mistake. This is their century. China will eventually adopt the FDR system used to counteract the depression. They will print money to pay workers to build roads, bridges, etc. With that money, Chinese workers will be able to buy Chinese made cars, fridges, etc. They do NOT need America and they will not need the American (tapped out) consumer. Napoleon stated a couple of hundred years ago, “If the sleeping dragon (China) awakes, the rest of the world should tremble.”
When it comes to military might, China is way ahead of the US despite the b.s propaganda coming from the US government and the US military. At this moment (as reported by British intelligence) China has about 50 state of the art nuclear submarines cruising around the world. As an example of America’s head in the sand attitude and, “We Are Number One And Will Always Be Number One,” philosophy, someone posted some time ago on this blog that if China attacked Taiwan, the US fleet would come to Taiwan’s aid. If the US did that, there would be a lot of US navy ships sitting at the bottom of the ocean within days. As for the nulear issue - China has already stated for the record that they are willing to sacrifice scores of Chinese towns and cities in the event of a nuclear war with the US but China stated it would destroy every major US city by the time the attacks were over.
The bottom line is that America now shares the world stage, for the first time in around 100 years, with several big players. China is #1. The European Union is now a bigger United States than the United States. Yes, they have problems but those problems will be solved. It takes more than the usual American 10 minute gratification period to solve problems which have grown over hundreds of years. However, In 50 to 100 years, they will have solved the problems.
Finally, unless we get another incompetent clown like Bush in office, the USA will be okay for 20 to 50 years. Empires seldom decline in just a few years but the USA of the future will look very different from the US of today.
Mike I believe the projection is 50 - 60 submarines with 30 being nuclear. As for the rest, I do not blame Bush - these problems started decades ago and were exacerbated under the Clinton administration with Bush sounding the knell.
Perhaps this is the Chinese century, certainly the next 15 years will be tough in the US, but personally I believe that 15 years from now, after we muddle our way through this recession/depression, that the US will be in a much stronger position.
“By 2010 the U.S. could be facing a new PLAN submarine fleet of about 10 SSNs, 5-6 SSBNs, and assuming the production of 5 Yuans, about 27 new very capable non-nuclear submarines. In addition, the PLAN may retain most of about 20 older but still effective Type 035 “Ming” class non-nuclear submarines, for a potential total approaching 50 to 60 attack submarines alone. Today the U.S. Navy only has 55 attack submarines to cover its global security commitments. Shockingly, there were suggestions from within the Navy in early 2004 that this fleet could be reduced to 37 in order to pay for newer submarines.[9] While three Los Angeles class SSNs have been moved to Guam, this is only sufficient to support one submarine continuously deployed. According to some sources budget cutters apparently reduced this number from six. However, China’s projected submarine fleet build-up makes the current U.S. SSN fleet of 55 SSNs seem inadequate.”
Richard Fisher, Jr
Vice President, International Assessment and Strategy Center
http://tinyurl.com/278kg7
Robert Shiller invests overseas:
Question: How can you manage that risk?
Answer: I used to coach children’s soccer, and I would tell my players, “Stand away from the pack, and sooner or later the ball will come to you.”
In your career choices too: Get away from the pack. Also, you associate your home country with safety. But the rest of the world is pretty peaceful too, on average, and the average is all that matters.
I think relatively few [Americans] are getting away from the pack, investing more outside the U.S. than in.
Question: How are you investing now?
Answer: I’m probably a little over 60 percent in stocks, almost all of it outside the U.S. I have a lot of cash. And I’ve been reducing my exposure to real estate. It may be at the end of a cycle.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/09/real_estate/shiller.moneymag/index.htm
John Crudele of the NY Post is trying to find out about the Plunge Protection Team. Paulson is not talking.
http://tinyurl.com/28gb6h
Regardless of the Freedom of Information Act, no information is forthcoming from Crudele’s efforts. The Administration stands above the law, and need not comply. Is Crudele hoping the Gonzalez justice department will press his case or something? Fat chance.
“The team was formed by a directive of President Reagan back in the late 1980s, right after the stock market had had some embarrassing sinking spells.
This was also when Robert Heller, who had just left his post as a Federal Reserve governor, proposed very publicly that the Fed should be allowed to rig the stock market in times of emergency.
That’s all well and good - and probably in the public interest.
But I’m now attempting to determine whether the Plunge Protection Team’s powers have been expanded in recent years to situations that aren’t necessarily emergencies.
I’d also like to know who, exactly, is being drawn into the consultations of the Team.
Does it still just consist of top government officials like the Fed chairman and Treasury secretary?
Or have big shots from Wall Street firms - the kind that could make money knowing the workings of the clandestine government operations - also been recruited?”
Since the FOIA request has not yet been filled, would anyone care to go out on a limb and speculate about the answer to the question Crudele raised about whether any ‘big shots from Wall Street’ are in on the PPT’s game? Because that would seem to constitute a case of insider trading at the very top of the financial world — big news, you know?
Yes, I’m afraid it’s going to take some serious pain for the Moellerings to realize what a mess they have made of their lives. Apparently they still don’t get it… but they will.
You would think one look in the mirror would give them a clue…
Anybody catch last Sunday’s Sopranos?
Viewers know about how Carmella built a shoddy spec house and managed to flip it for a healthy profit. Last week they showed a brief scene where she was surfing a property website which touted Panama City as being the next real estate hotspot.
Methinks Carmella is doing what most “real estate investors” did in the last few years: instead of banking her gains, she is going to double down… And get her a$$ handed to her.
The Sopranos, albeit a bit rearview due to production and scheduling, has touched on both bubbles since its inception (both times Carmella was caught up in them). Pretty amusing.
There are several other examples of bubble-in-pop-culture (weekend topic?): In FX’s The Shield, the Strike Team robs/murders a gang and wants to invest the ill-gotten gains in real estate. Also, Shane’s wife is “in real estate” and they are having trouble paying for their townhouse, which is one of the driving forces for Shane’s “dirty-copisms.”
FX also drives it home with Rescue Me, as all of the firefighters have messed up housing situations which lands them in as many absurd situations as their job.
No surprise as these are 2 of the most “on-the-ball” productions ever.
Love both of them. June 13 cannot come soon enough.
Also, it’s an undercurrent of the CSI franchise as well: bodies in construction developments, murders for apartments, fraud etc.
CSI Miami really goes over the top with the real estate stuff.
David Chase must have some properties in Panama City that he wants to dump. I laughed when I saw her surfing that site. And the only reason she made money was because her cousin took that albatross off of her hands. R.I.P. Christopher, you violent anti-social misogynistic drug addict.
these boys is misogynated
reform now, end the croni-ism, the rascalism…
is you is, or is you aint, my constitchancy?
And Carmella got po’d at Tony’s gambling! I think Tony pointed out she wasn’t exactly and “investor”……
Wasn’t expecting the peyote desert dessert deux-o
Best thing about Carm’s scam was she screwed a relative selling it to her cousin. Think about all the realtwhores/developers/investors who have screwed friends and family in dumping failed flips/specs. No conscience about the wrong wood being used and the McMansion falling apart in a few years dumped on family! Awesome.
Got diversified assets?
A quick anecdote - a friend of mine lives up in Minneapolis, works for a construction company building highways and, significantly, roads in new housing developments.
For the last few summers, he was averaging 60 - 80 hours a week. Plenty of work. This spring, when work started up again, his boss said no overtime this summer. Now, a month or so into the season, he’s down to 35 hours a week, getting Friday afternoons off. He’s starting to cut corners and save money, especially with the higher price in gas, which he said hit $3.35 in Minneapolis a couple days ago. That’s unheard of back there.
This is my first post though I’ve read since the summer of ‘05, so I want to thank Ben for his outstanding work. I saved a couple of relatives hundreds of thousands by showing them many articles from here and advising them to wait before buying. They decided to wait, and are actually happy that they did. I’ll be donating once I get more funds in.
minneapolis is in transition for sure, but it is very location dependent.
There are some areas (exurbs especially) where construction is slowing severely.
Other areas (specifically around “the lakes”) where construction is still booming. My best friend works in construction, and they all have mandatory overtime (must work all saturdays for 10 hour days). that said, the builders are making that big PUSH.
Anecdotally, there is somewhat of a homebuying bump right now, at least in my neighborhood. the house across the street from me went on the Market last year: NO TAKERS. Then he put it up for a rental for about 8 months. Now back on market since around mid-March. The first 1 month, no lookers or anything.
the last 3 weeks, it’s getting 5-6 showings every Saturday and Sunday.
Last night, we were sitting on the front porch. 10 people drove up and grabbed a brochure. 2 of them came and talked to us about what we thought of the ‘hood.
The house may or may not sell. It is way overpriced (by about $100,000) and has a very odd layout. (example, has 2 large great rooms and weird layout kitchen on first floor. Bathroom on first floor. 4 bedrooms, but NO BATH on the second floor so no bath by a bedroom, and then office and bedroom in basement.)
but the fact that this many people are looking and considering it. The only reason it hasn’t sold IMO is that layout.
The third house from “the Russian” which I’ve talked about before (shares an alley with me) was put on market last fall. No action. has a “sold” sign now. Don’t know what it sold for yet, but asking price was very high. if it sold for near asking, it will be the highest sales price of a home anywhere near our house.
Were’ all rich again since we can sell each other stocks at ever increasing prices! It’s time to buy, buy, buy!
Minnesota is toast. I can’t believe how ridiculously overpriced it has become. The dreamers are sure dreaming. I saw some listings the other night and just laughed. When California finally pulls this thing down hard, Minnesota will be grasping for air in a matter of minutes.
Do these people that are grabbing the fliers read the Pioneer Press or the Star Tribune and see all the articles about rampant foreclosures? There are subprime timebombs all over the state. It should now be called the Land of 10,000 Foreclosures.
This one looks deep enough to dive in, head first…
Famous last words before an all too predictable spinal injury~
“…4 bedrooms, but NO BATH on the second floor so no bath by a bedroom…”
That’s one of the biggest deal-killers I’ve ever read about. Might as well offer free chamber pots. Personally, I think the owners are fools for not creating a bathroom upstairs, even if it is at the expense of one bedroom. Sounds almost as if the entire upstairs is just a cheaply-converted attic.
Why are we encouraging kids to enter the fields of science and technology, when careers in finance, law and management make more money?
You take away Microsoft and a few other big technology players and the rest are pretty small. Yet there are dozens of financial companies with a market cap over 50 billion dollars. Unless a kid really loves science, why on earth would you encourage him or her to pursue that over finance and law?
Technology:
http://finance.google.com/finance?catid=66529330
Finance:
http://finance.google.com/finance?catid=58211593
You should never go for a career in science and technology unless that is what you really love. On the other hand, if you have the ability and the desire, that is really the way to go. Getting a Ph.D. at a top university was not enough to get a good job. However, as a 50 something professor who really loves both teaching and research, I can say that the struggling years as a post doc were worth it. I’ve spend several summers and three years of sabbaticals working on very productive research, getting and enjoying the chance to travel. At some point I will retire, but it’s not something that I am in a hurry to do.
That is, several summers and sabbaticals working on research in Europe and many summers and academic years working on research in the US.
I always thought it would have been cool to live in that out-of-touch-with-reality academic world. Good for you in getting on that train. The real world also has sabbaticals. They are called “layoffs”.
There are many worlds out-of-touch with the reality of lay-offs including inherited money, pop stars, poltical elite, and many others.
Academics compose the most intellectually stimulating among these worlds, and they work the hardest to get there.
The highest tier of American universities is one of our greatest assets and probably the best hope for reversing the intellectual decline.
(I am not an academic, but I admired many of my professors.)
“The highest tier of American universities is one of our greatest assets and probably the best hope for reversing the intellectual decline.”
Here, here. If it weren’t for Univ research all the medical development we’d see is newer geriatic drugs and plastic surgery advances.
I agree about the support of research.
A large portion of our research community is retiring. NIH has had a push on for several years to find younger PIs (Principle Investigators those out of the field). There is always room for talent.
Now having said that, I see the research community moving away from the coasts to inland Univ. This is especially true of the young blood coming into the system since they need to establish their families in the area and most of them are locked out of the coastal home buying markets. It’s hard to get enough funding to meet the project’s needs when you have to factor in cost of living on the coasts and the increased indirect costs. You can get so much more bang for your buck if you aren’t paying for CA or MA housing indirectly through salaries.
When you are talking about a typical 5 yr NIH RO1 grant - it can mean the diiference between getting funded or not.
I know several researchers that jumped ship to Vanderbilt in the past few years, taking all their projects including some staff and post-docs with them. Inland universities, if they are smart, are beefing up their research infrastructure now. The bigger schools in the flyover states are recruiting our sponsored programs administrators. If the employee is younger, they are moving. Several of our scientific vendors have started opening sales offices in throughout the midwest.
Yes I’m a bit of a broken record but I keep hoping to reach the new people just tuning in as the housing conondrum implodes.
I expect small college towns to be a popular destination for both younger and older folks in the near future, not big cities on the coast. You have interesting, intelligent people; culture and nightlife; and affordable living.
What do you think about College Park, Mariland?
For living or doing business?
For me, It’s still too expensive because of proximity to DC and Baltimore. JH is a good school but they’d have to literally buy me a house to get me to more there. Same with an organization around Bethesda.
College Park isn’t a college town. Think Boulder, Austin, Lawrence, Champaign, Athens, etc.
Gwynster, I was thinking of “living.”
Arlington prices are not coming down, at least, not to levels that I would find reasonable. College Park, on the other hand, has single family houses selling cheaper than condominiums here, and at the same proximity to Metrorail. If it were a college town, that would add to its attractions.
Disclaimer: I have not been to College Park. Perhaps, I should visit it.
I like it, but right now it’s severely overpriced. I live in the northern section and there is a TON of stealth inventory around here. Failed flips or peope who have moved out and been uable or unwilling to sell. With the subprime disproportionately affecting modest neighborhoods like mine (near the REI) my neighborhood is going to get HAMMERED in the next few years. But I love my short commute and I bought in ‘99 (my mortgage is less than renting). But the neighborhood is still nice, the houses modest, and I can walk to the Greenbelt metro station. Crime doesn’t quite seem to be the problem that it is further south in CP or University Park.
When I bought in ‘99 the prices were about 20k on average less than across the county line near Langley Park. I’m not sure what the difference is now, but as I said I predict this area will get hammered. I’d predict at least 30% and maybe as much as 50% off of peak.
Thank you, Jim A, this is very helpful.
I used to live in College Park. The University’s ranking in engineering, comp science, math and physics have gone up a lot. I loved it at that time, but in recent years there has been a lot of new construction and the place seems to have lost quite a lot of open spaces and traffic has increased. Also, keep in mind that the area is in Prince George’s County, where the K-12 schools and hospital system have had a bad reputation. Most professors I knew used to live in in Montgomery and Howard counties–places like Columbia, Silver Spring, Bethesda, etc., all expensive now. I think Columbia may be still a bit more affordable.
Well I’m single, so schools weren’t a big issue for me. But you have to be a little careful about using the simpllistic assumption that Montgomery County=Good and PG=Bad. The local elementary school by all accounts isn’t bad at all. The High School (High Point) however draws from a much broader area, some of it fairly dodgy. There IS, for example an MS-13 presence. But if you go just over the border into Montgomery County you have the same issues. Back in ‘99 you could pay 20k more for the privledge of attending Montgomery Blair HS in MC, which has many of the same issues as High Point in PG county.
But since I’m single these distinctions didn’t mean a whole lot to me, but the difference between ~120k and ~140k did. Beltsville is a similar, working class neighborhood, although with somewhat newer (70s instead of 50s)housing stock.
Yep, we lost several new highers due to housing prices. At least one was an established researcher with good funding. He was ready to sign the contract, but then he and his wife visited to look at housing. He had a nice 4br home in middle america that was valued at around $250k. That wouldn’t even buy a 1 bedroom condo around here. I suggested he rent a townhouse and wait out the housing boom, but rent would have been more than his current mortgage payment.
highers = hires
Ok the first time.
“NIH has had a push on for several years to find younger PIs (Principle Investigators those out of the field).”
Too bad that jackass at NIMH, Insel, has all but choked-off funding for basic neuroscience/cognition research.
Bill,
It sounds like you’re living Maslowe’s self-actualization!
Kudos to you for following your heart and your love. I hope to bring up my 2 to do just the same. To me financial success is being able to make the best of your strengths and loves….in a way that leaves a legacy for others. Sounds like you nailed it.
I would not encourage anyone to enter the tech field. The new “it’s not-amnesty” bill contains provisions to increase the number of H1-Bs dramatically.
The problem is that, to the truly intelligent, accounting and finance can be really boring professions. A friend of mine, who tried his hand in accounting before going into engineering and who went on to become a professor at MIT, used to tell me that accounting was just playing around numbers and he got tired of it after 6 months. There is a sense among many scientists and academics that management is just soft skills and bean counting. While that may be partly true, based on my own experiences in the industry, many in management seem to have the capacity for being well-organized, speaking well, motivating people and practicing good self-discipline under pressure, traits those in academia and research do not neceesarily possess.
You take away Microsoft and a few other big technology players and the rest are pretty small.
Who wants to work at a big company? There are thousands of small tech companies out there, and if you add them all up, they employ a lot of people. If you work at a small one, you get to work on a broader range of stuff, the org chart is quite flat, and you can be a big fish in a small pond. The majority of those working at big companies are just cogs in a machine, and often spend half their time in meetings or writing documents.
Why work in science/technology instead of finance or law? Because not everyone’s brains are wired the same way, and many who enjoy science and tech would detest a career in finance or law, and vice versa. Doing what you like/love may not necessarily make you rich, but at least you won’t be miserable. Life is too short to waste it chasing the highest paying career for its own sake.
Also, it’s an undercurrent of the CSI franchise as well: bodies in construction developments, murders for apartments, fraud etc.
CSI Miami really goes over the top with the real estate stuff.
ignore, misplaced response to earlier post
Here’s a pretty funny quote from a former Sixpercenter that now works as a retail sales associate in an article about 12,000 bubble-related job losses here in South Florida. From the article:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/local/sfl-zjobs19may19,0,7147066.story?track=mostemailedlink
“I just needed a break,” longtime agent Myrna Bier of Boca Raton said. She recently left Lang Realty frustrated with the industry downturn and the hoard of people who jumped into the profession when housing was hot.
“Anybody can go to school and get a license [to sell real estate]. There are a lot of amateurs out there who don’t know what they’re doing,” she said. Bier now works as a sales associate for Bed Bath & Beyond.
Yeah, right. Needed a break into a $7/hour sales job dealing with the retail buying public.
Translated: I couldn’t sell anything anymore now that every last idiot has been shoved into something and there is no one to buy except maybe the palmetto bugs.
This line was the most important. “The housing slump is chipping away at South Florida’s sturdy job market.” The hot job market was supposed to save housing. Somebody dust off Plan B.
But the best line was this line. “Anybody can go to school and get a license [to sell real estate].”
End of story for infinity.
Miva, Inc.
Fort Myers, FL
Miva announced an outsourcing / optimization plan. MIVA announced Monday an outsourcing plan to improve operating efficiencies, with 50 positions cut, and savings of about $20M over the initial seven year term; the company expects a modest benefit to operating expenses in 2007.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 1-50
Source: Theflyonthewall.com - May 15, 2007
and
Sarasota County Planning and Development Services
Sarasota, FL
With an almost 60 percent decline in the number of building permits issued in Sarasota County compared to the same time last year, the executive director of the county’s planning and development services department, said he had no choice but to reduce his work force Tuesday by 41 positions. Our permitting was down about 60 percent. As a result, because we are a fee-driven function of our department, we needed to make some decisions about reducing our overall operations based on the lack of volume and the lack of the building fees coming in, he said. The Deputy County Administrator said the department’s significant decrease in revenue, due to fewer building permit fees, forced the county to make the difficult decision.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 1-50
Source: The Bradenton Herald - May 16, 2007
and
Honeywell International Inc.
Morristown, NY
Sarasota, FL
Honeywell International will close a Sarasota plant that makes speed and direction sensors, costing Southwest Florida another 125 manufacturing jobs. The first phase of the plant’s closing will begin as early as this summer and will be completed sometime next year. Work will be moved to Freeport, Ill., or to Juarez, Mexico, the company said. A Honeywell spokeswoman, denied that labor cost or high overhead factored into the decision to close the sensors plant. Honeywell hires a mix of people, including production workers, engineers and sourcing specialists. The plant produces speed and direction sensors primarily for the rail and aerospace industries.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: Sarasota Herald-Tribune - May 17, 2007
and
Home Shopping Network, Inc.
St. Petersburg, FL
Fontana, CA
Nashville, TN
Roanoke, VA
HSN, the TV shopping network, eliminated 60 back office jobs Thursday, most of them at its St. Petersburg headquarters campus. The cutback, equal to about 1.5 percent of the network’s 4,000 employees, was described as a move to cut redundant jobs. A few of the jobs eliminated were scattered across the company’s three distribution centers in Fontana, Calif., Nashville, Tenn., and Roanoke, Va. The network, which has been retrenching to enhance profitability while trying to pull itself out of a two-year sales slump, recently shut down its second channel, America’s Store, and pulled out of overseas markets in Britain and Germany after an 11-year effort.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 51-100
Source: St. Petersburg Times - May 18, 2007
and if you would like to see additional layoffs around the states
http://www.jwtec.com/hrlive/layoffs.php
I wonder how long until someone figures out how to offshore Realtors? You hop into a sort of taxi and Jesminder in Kolkatta takes you to the various showings. All while repeating : “Now is a great time to buy?”
LOL I call BS on that article. Long term agent my ass she just got her license in 2003. She got frustrated because now she actually has to work for a living and has no skills. No more answering the phone and taking orders. The boss is no longer giving out listing for blowjobs and she can’t cut it. Give me a break. She was one of the hoard.
https://www.myfloridalicense.com/LicenseDetail.asp?SID=&id=2518847
Local news from Long Island. A colleague at work told me that a real estate agent in his family just quit to go to a different realty. She says there are _no_ buyers and it is costing too much (as an agent) to list a house. Inventory is creeping back up.
Which brings up something we forget about the 6%. Some of it should go to advertising costs…newspapers, signs, MLS fees. And, in this market, it better.
I bet the number of listings hits a ceiling when the real estate agents decide they don’t want to pay to advertise things that won’t sell. I doubt there are many agents who are willing to pay to advertise a house that is priced too high.
Did you miss the 60 Minutes report last week? It was made very clear that postage is a major expense that must be covered by those mania-driven bloated commissions.
I can’t believe your assessment of Long Island. It doesn’t seem credible. Everybody that I know that owns on the Island has firmly told me that, “my house will not go down in value. Too many people want to live here.” You may want to do some more research.
They wouldn’t need advertising if there price was something buyers couldn’t refuse. Painful but true.
This should make Stucco happier.
HUD targets loan ‘gifts’
Local firm fights for down payment aid.
http://www.sacbee.com/103/story/185866.html
“The proposed ban targets a financing tool thousands of government-insured buyers have used to cover their down payments.”
“Here’s how it works: A lender contacts Nehemiah or a similar nonprofit group and asks for a down payment “gift” for a lower-income buyer. Nehemiah sends money to cover the buyer’s down payment. The seller then sends Nehemiah a check for the same amount plus a $499 processing fee. The seller adds the costs to the price of the house, enabling both sides of the transaction to realize their goal of selling and buying.”
“In 1999 the federal housing agency proposed a similar ban on the practice only to withdraw it a year later after negative public comment. The agency has now set a 60-day comment period before it takes further action.”
Why not just lower the price? I believe I will be writing a few letters in the next month.
And, presumably, the lender does not know that the borrower has no skin in the game. If that is correct, how is it not fraud?
The lenders have been using the Sgt Schultz defense for the last few years. “I see NOTHING.”
“I see NOTHING.”
Probably right — until they lose money, at which time the fraud is noticed.
regarding rolling housing bubble burst , we see now some early signs..
US firmly in housing recession
Spain (florida of Euro zone) is showing signs of crash
India (the beneficiary of emerging market hoopla) is also showing signs of crash..
Eastern OZ is in the grip of crash//western to follow.
UK (like NY) being a pimp of modern day financial engineering is still strong (but how long?)
waiting for ireland/some eastern european/south africa/canada/china to complete the process..
as protectionism from US is beginning to set in after the ballyhoo of globalization slowly dissipates, the violant impact on emerging (esp china/india/mexico) would follow..of course, it will not be pretty for US either.
Goldman-Sachs, the modern day pimp de extraordinaire, has already prepared the list for the next BRIC: N-11. It would remain a wishful thinking.
Sorry, Eastern OZ is NOT in the grip of crash, I live there.
Certain parts of the Sydney and Melbourne markets are struggling(the far outer suburbs and some condo’s), but in general the Eastern Australian market is healthy.
(Says he who sold in mid-2005, and now checks the RE supplement each week with gritted teeth. ;()
Oh no, it is different in Canada.
http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-forum/index.php?showtopic=99136&st=40
Check post 51.
“In Canada it’s different. There’s no one that I know that would rent something if they could afford to buy. We can’t write off the interest costs in our mortgages but there is no tax on Capital Gains for a principal residence. Even if I could rent something for 3k, I would rather spend 4k to buy something. The only reason for renting would be if I was only going to live a certain area for a short period of time. Generally, here, only people that can’t afford to buy, rent.”
Looks like it is time to start shorting the Canadian mortgage companies.
When someone says “It’s just common sense”, what they are saying is that they have a belief that can’t be backed up with data. “Common Sense” is justifying unsupported belief.
When someone says “It’s different here” it means their market is way out of whack with reality and they are just trying to justify unsupported belief.
What’s the world on the street regarding drop in gold prices… and the overall start of a climb for the USD?
Seasonal
Does anyone know if real estate web sites ( Prudential, Century 21, Remax) monitor what houses get the most website hits. Kinda like ebay where you can tell how many times your item as been viewed. Or even more interesting do they monitor what the viewers write about the house.
Here’s why i ask. I use Prudential local website the most. Mostly because the give me the DOM number. I can Ialso writes notes about houses I’ve saved.
I’ve noticed that if i write say, the house has pool. A few days later a picture of the pool which hadn’t been shown before suddenly shows up. Or if a write ” really bad photos” a few days later the photo’s are changed for the better.
Of course i alwyas seem to write “overpriced” and the prices don;t change much but i figure it’s worth a shot.
So anybody know it the agents are watching us on their sites?
Yes, I am sure some agents watch their sites. Why? Because it is possible and not too difficult (I use Google Analytics, but you can even learn stuff by analyzing your web logs). And, you can learn a lot of useful stuff by watching your site.
And, if I had $10k in commission riding on my site I would watch it like a hawk.
That’s interesting. I just checked my prudential site and they use Google Analytics too. In fact they recently updated their website. The old website, I didn’t feel like i was being monitored. I think i need to leave more negative feedback
IIRC you’re a PHL area poster.
I used to work for PFR. Yes, the websites are monitored. If the agents are not internet-savvy enough to do it themselves, the corporate marketing dept. does it for them.
I think I’m going to go on to one of those websites, type in “lick my balls” and wait to see what shows up.
Hopefully they disclose up front that your notes can or will be read by whomever controls the site. Sounds as if they are treating “notes” as “comments” in the blog sense.
No takers on the gold price? I guess the gold bugs are still asleep. But it does seem to have a heckuva time staying over $700. Is there a metals bubble?
Sell futures if you feel it is overpriced. You will probably make an easy killing.
I read somewhere that end-user demand for gold (jewelry, industrial uses) has only been going up about 4% per year. The rest is all speculators. I will get flamed for saying it, but, gold is no different from houses. I would wait for the speculators to get wiped out and then go buy some - when the word “panic” appears in the gold market-related headlines, it will be “a great time to buy.”
…gold is no different from houses.
Oh, I’d love to hear your reasoning behind this one.
I hope gold stays below $700 for the next couple of months. I expect to have some new money to invest.
Here’s some funny Craigslist finds:
From: http://fortlauderdale.craigslist.org/rfs/333931103.html
“Note: Ft. Lauderdale and Broward County have recently imposed a moratorium on the building of new homes. There is simply no more vacant land available for building new homes. This will create a Low Supply for the High Demand of Existing Homes which INCREASES on a Day By Day basis.”
From: http://fortlauderdale.craigslist.org/rfs/332115667.html
“In less than one month the Florida property tax relief plans will be determined and in conjunction with Florida summer visiters, there will be another big boom in Real Estate in south florida. Don’t wait!”
Uhhh, do these sellers think that blantantly lying is going to help sell his home?
Here’s a great one, where if you only pay this guy’s mortgage, he’ll split the profit when he sells his condo in two years: http://fortlauderdale.craigslist.org/rfs/306089620.html
E-Loan, which I use as my higher-yield savings account, just had a big spike in lending costs. I’ve watched their 30-year fixed rates weekly since I started using them as a savings vehicle in Oct. 06. They just went from 6.0 to 6.125. This is a pretty big jump–the biggest I’ve seen for a company’s “lowest advertised” fixed rates for which no-one seems to qualify.
Oldest trick in the book . Advertise a low rate that only two people in America could qualify for and switch the sucker to a junk loan . Bait and Switch …Bait and Switch…..
With all this bad faith lending going on I think it would be prudent for borrowers to find out what programs they really qualify for .
Subprime Default Rates Understated?
I recall that a default rate of 12% has been kicked around as the historical average default rate used in subprime pricing models. Well surprise, surprise, it looks like the present default rate may be around 21%. Oh, $hit!
“To see if Perry had it right, I quizzed the MBA and got this in response from Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics:
“Mr. Perry is correct that we have to differentiate by the type of servicer rather than the type of loan. This may not be a major issue because our latest subprime numbers are 14.4% delinquent by at least one payment, plus another 4.5% in foreclosure, for a total of 18.9% either delinquent or in foreclosure. For just subprime ARMs that number is 21.1%, so we agree with Mr. Perry’s estimates of the current state of the market.”"
http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/archives/2007/05/subprime_delinquencies_higher_1.html
Just a follow up to a story that ran on 4/25/07 in the Sarasota Herald Tribune that quoted a Realtor (Marianne Zoll) that was begging people to take their homes off the market:
“That is still historically high — the kind of figure that makes for odd requests: “I’d like to make an appeal to everybody who does not need to sell to take your home off the market,” said Marianne Zoll of the Re/Max 5 Star/Zoll Real Estate & Auction Team.”
http://tinyurl.com/2bgzcy
I had found she had bought 2 properties at the peak of the market and today I see on Foreclosure.com that one of overpriced condos she bought is in Preforeclosure!!! So now we REALLY know why she was begging people to take properties off the market!!!
Flic — I remember the story well. Thanks for following up and confirming our well-founded suspicions.
Flic — thinking more about it, it would be great if you could write to the Tribune, either in Letters to the Editor or at least the appropriate blog, and tell them about this. Here on Ben’s blog we take these scams for granted, but a lot of the public, especially the oldsters in Sarasota, may be totally unaware.
I actually did send a detailed email to the Herald Tribune and the 4 reporters that always do RE stories but I doubt they will do anything with it. I should have copied that Realtor on the email also!
Ode to the Clash… (with very little rewording)
Charlie don’t Serf and we think he should
Charlie don’t Serf and you know that it aint no good
Charlie don’t Serf for his hamburger momma
Charlie’s gonna be a low wage star
Everybody wants to rule the world
Must be something we get from birth
One truth is we never learn
Satellites make space burn
We’ve been told to keep the strangers out
We don’t like them starting to hang around
We don’t like them all over town
Acroos the world we are going to blow them down
Charlie don’t Serf, he’ll never learn
Charlie don’t Serf though he’s got a gun
Charlie’s gonna be a low wage star…
NYCity Boy: More research on Long Island? You should ask a renter not an owner ;-). I know you are waiting for this to hit NYC. Well, it is creeping closer and is visible on the outer reaches of Long Island. With a good telescope, the Tsunami is now visible from here (LIE exit 63).
Suffolk county median price has shown year-on-year drops for both February and March.
Last year, the peak number of houses in the Three Village School district (Stony Brook area) on MLS between 50k and 550k with 3 or more bedrooms was 165 (in early October, 2006). Today, it hit 160 (a big hop from 151 a few days ago..so I will wait until it stays up before celebrating). Yep, I have a spreadsheet and a graph.
Zillow is showing that house prices are going down in Mount Sinai.
I saw my first boarded up house for sale in Mount Sinai (and I don’t look for them).
Neil, I need popcorn.
Hey Lost, I’m sure you were aware that was some Manhattan sarcasm. Every time the Islanders talk I want to hurl. Keep up the good work out there.
From the Long Island Business news. What is key here is the sentence “…sales have lagged on lower-priced properties – those below $2 million”. The reality is that most of the homes out there are closer to this price range than the $20 million and $100 million properties. But because the high end hasn’t YET slowed down, it distorts the median and average prices, keeping them misleadingly aloft. The reality is people with homes below $2 million are scared sh_tless out there and prices have started to fall and will likely crash bigtime.
****************************
Summertime and the rentals are easy
By David Winzelberg
Friday, May 18, 2007
The Hamptons’ summer real estate market has always been more of a curiosity than a barometer of Long Island housing. Think unreal estate, and this season is no different.
That’s not to say the Hamptons don’t sometime mirror Island-wide trends. There are rising inventories in the Hamptons, for instance, just like everywhere else; and while rentals and sales have lagged on lower-priced properties – those below $2 million – business for higher-end properties of $7 million and up remains brisk.
Earlier this month, Ron Barron bought 34 acres on Further Lane in East Hampton for a price reported to be very close to $100 million, according to one local broker. Farther down Further, the 11-acre Meehan property – where a young Jacqueline Bouvier once summered – was sold last month to Reed Krakoff, president of Coach, the leather bag people, for $20 million. While renovations continue there, Krakoff is renting Warner Music Group Chairman Edgar Bronfman’s house in Amaganset (for sale, by the way, at $15.5 million).
Higher-end activity, clearly, is doing its thing. And there are still relatively affordable summer opportunities available, even in this relative 11th hour.
Hamptons homes going for between $100,000 and $200,000 a month can still be rented for July and August; if you’re looking to buy, Tommy Hilfiger’s oceanfront manse is still on the market, for a mere $24.5 million.
http://www.libn.com/article.htm?articleID=38809#
Wes — I have always wanted to rub elbows with those folks, but just couldn’t bring myself to spend more than $100,000 a month to rent a place. I mean, that’s real money. Glad to see they’ve gotten down to my price range, even if it’s only a small, older place at that price.
Taking houses off the market is not going to solve the problem. Marianne Zoll just doesn’t get it. No one is going to pay these inflated prices. Lower the prices and there will be lots of buyers. If she was stupid enough to buy at the peak of the market, when as a realtor, she knew prices were artificially inflated then she has no busines being a realtor. It doesn’t bother me, when people like this get burned. They’d have no qualms if one of their buyers got taken.
Yes, she is confused by causality. There are too many houses on the market because people are not buying them. Not, people aren’t buying them because there are too many available. She is something like a dope.
“The world always makes the assumption that the exposure of an error is identical with the discovery of truth–that the error and truth are simply opposite. They are nothing of the sort. What the world turns to, when it is cured of one error, is usually simply another error, and maybe one worse than the first one.”
H.L. Mencken
Do not watch if you are not open minded.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcQQ05XtAQ4
YES!!!! I love that guy.
Only one thing I diagree with. That congress should take the power of commander in chief from the president. We need a new president that will pull out the troops, not a congress that violates the Constitution.
On 9/11 I kept asking people, “What was Bin Laden thinking?”. He had to know we’d come over there and attempt to kill him, and do all we could to take out Al Qada.
It seemed I was the only one asking this question… “Oh, he’s just a nut.”
No, he’s not a nut. He is a genious that is willing to do whatever it takes to get what he wants. He wanted us to invade, to waste trillions on a war we can’t win, to speed the process of bankrupting ourselves, to get more of the muslim world up in arms against us.
Darrell — with respect — nowhere does Ron Paul say that he believes the President of the US should not be the Commander in Chief. He believes that only Congress is authorized to declare war and that by extension, the President functions as Commander in Chief when such war is authorized by Congress. He believes that presidentially-initiated conflicts abroad are unconstitutional and that they violate the fundamental concept of avoidance of foreign entanglements - imperialism. Not sure how you believe the Congress would violate the Constitution by de-funding this undeclared war.
Darrell,
with repect, check the neocon timeline…the architects of the war,notably Wolfowitz, had been pressing for war with Iraq
for serveral years prior to 9/11…that event simply gave them their opportunity.
Also, whatever his aims, it may have been to get us into Afghanistan, a place where foreign armies always come to grief. Even the Brits, at the height of the Empire, had no luck there. And the Soviets exhausted themselves financially and militarily in their disastrous war, helping to lead to their collapse.
Since this is becoming a political forum today I must jump in.
Until we as a people get off the foreign oil drug we will have to employ the present foreign policy. If we did not need the oil we would not care much about a nation 300 miles from the Suez Canal and a region that sits on a huge portion of the world’s oil. Even the antiwar crowd continue to drive, fly and generally burn huge amounts of energy as they enjoy the US lifestyle.
In the assumption then that we must protect the oil flow, Bush’s actions were justifiable. The world’s major spy agencies thought Saddam had a weapons of mass destruction program. The fact that he did not or it was shipped to Syria is meaningless. We could not take the risk that a nation that supports terrorists and is our avowed enemy might have such weapons.
The anti war crowd yells, “Saddam did not support the 9/11 terrorists” and they may be right. He did pay $25,000. to families of terrorists that blew themselves up in Israel. He did allow Abdul Nidal to live in Bagdad for 20 years. You remember he was the fellow that blew up all the airliners. Mysteriously Nidal was murdered in Bagdad a few weeks before Congress was to vote for giving Bush the freedom to attack. Saddam was probably trying to get rid of baggage.
We also know that Saddam hired terrorists or what ever you want to call them to kill Bush Sr.
Now what if Bush had done nothing and Saddam had the bomb or something in the bio weapons area and turned it over to terrorists? The USA would have suffered huge casualties and the liberal media would have presented all the warning signs I have listed above and said, “Why didn’t Bush act to prevent this?”
Monday morning quarterbacks can state how mistakes were made. They also argue that the CIA should be able to warn us prior to Saddam getting the bomb in the 11th hour. In 1951 the CIA estimated the Russians would explode a hydrogen bomb in 1955. Only around 12 months later that fired one off. So much for the imperfections of intelligence agencies.
We can not take the risk.
The fighting in Iraq and other interventions are analogous to the Roman Army on Hadrian’s wall or along the Rhine/Danube River Lines. Thousands of soldiers died but the period was known as the “pax Romana” or peace of Rome.
War is a fact of nations. Good foreign policy makes sure if war comes along it is in the OTHER nations territory. “The best defense is an offense”. That is why we have lost 3,500 men instead of 55,000 in Vietnam. By the way the Phillipine insurection, which most doves probably aren’t even aware of, cost the USA 5000 lives around 1900.
We have spent the following percentages of our governments budget on defense over the last 50 odd years. Kennedy 55%, Johnson 65%, NIxon 55%, Ford 45%, Carter 40%, Clinton 40%, George bush Jr. 21%. The defense establishment in America spends 4% of GDP while we spend 16% on medical.
Those of you that beat up on George Bush have an allie in me when it comes to the economy but not in his agressive foreign policy. His policy convinced Libya (remember they were the Iran of the 1980’s) to end their nucleur program. The Saudi’s and Pakistanis have definitely improved their actions against terrorists.
Those of you that complain about simple, George Bush may be ignoring the possiblity that things would be much worse today without his taking down of Saddam. I sure do not know. I think that he has done his best and is a person that does not deserve the hatred and contempt so many of his countrymen show him.
I do not have problem with what we did (invading and bringing down Sadam), I do have problem with how we did it.
China is pulling money out of treasuries and pouring it into stocks.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8P6S7JG3.htm
Translation: You should be putting everything you have into the U.S. stock market. The bull run has only just begun.
Mixture of pessimistic news and posts - Matt Savinar’s Peak oil site warns of an impending nuclear attack against the U.S. Others talk about the inflation coverup occuring. Microeconomically, I’ve been having tons of OT hours for the last 3 years and squirreling away as much as possible in diverse areas, each of which will get their share of detractors here: gold bullion, stocks, t-bills, savings bonds, money market funds, and municipal bonds. It’s amazing how there are so many different doomsday scenarios floating around these days. Reminds me of 1979.
My experience freeing my metal from a retirement account…
About a month ago, I called up the Korporate Brobdingnagians and told them of my desire to call in my chips and get them closer to me, as in my gritty little palms, please.
They told me of the hit, I was gonna take (40-45%) by yanking them out before the 20 odd years would come and I could to it “tax-free”, by waiting… after weighing everything, I decided, i’d cheated the taxman going in and comes around, goes around and besides…
55 or 60% of something is better than 100% of nothing.
When I told the Korp, I wanted delivery, a not so bright young thing told me “Nobody’s ever done that before”, a little shocking, but not really, in our world of finance, full of nothing but computer blips, that get pushed around, up and down.
To the Korp’s Kredit, they came through and delivery time was around 2 1/2 weeks, from the date of my request.
from Kitco (thanks to implode o meter):
“Premeditated doctored and falsified economic statistics are the laughing stock of the USGovt reporting system. The are the tarnish on a once respected emblem. The two most important chronically corrupted pulse measures for the USEconomy are the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the economic growth, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the price inflation. The GDP is lifted improperly by 4% to 5% in order to conceal the ongoing fight with a recession since the 2000 stock bust. The enabling device is a ridiculously low price inflation figure which might be wrong by 7% to 8%. Most reported growth is merely improperly adjusted price inflation. Be sure that the practical benefit from suppressing the CPI is to keep Social Security payments down, along with federal pensions related to agency workers, military retirees, and those who used to sit on judge benches. The direct market motive is to sell USTreasury Bonds and other debt securities, while painting a picture of fiscal health for a nation far more sickly than official statistics reveal. Lying has become an institutional feature of US government, if not corporate life.”
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it’s all a vast conspiracy!!
they’re lying, we’re not, buy our product!!
oh and don’t forget the helicopters, the helicopters, the helicopters, this can’t be repeated often enough
the helicopters
I saw a helicopter this morning. It was a Chinook.
That doesn’t really mean anything. Boeing’s not too far from my house.
The Chinook chopper was real big. It was cool.
Trust in the US dollar?
Think Zimbabwe
“…Stubbornly pegged at an official exchange rate of $1 to Z$250 for ordinary Zimbabweans, the black market exchange market offers $1 for Z$25,000. Z$250 will buy a small boiled sweet and Z$25,000 is a quarter of what will cover a frugal breakfast excursion to a café. The government scheme is to “creatively” encourage exports by purchasing foreign currency at the special “parallel market” exchange rate of Z$15,000. Thus the bank is losing Z$14,750 for every single American dollar that it buys.
Subsidies are nothing new and neither are their disastrous consequences. For more than a year, the Grain Marketing Board bought maize at Z$52,000 a tonne, then sold it on to millers for Z$600 per tonne. “The grain company is still bleeding,” Paul Nyakazeya, a business journalist, said. “The entire economy is fraught with massive distortion. Government purchases fuel at 59 (US) cents and sells at a loss-making Z$325; it costs bakers Z$6,000 to bake bread that the government insists they sell at Z$824.” Another journalist pointed out that a plate of porridge is more expensive than a gram of gold: “This is the season of madness.” …
http://tinyurl.com/2xx29f
Times on Line
May 15
One of the comments posted under the article:
And of course let us remember that the World says it is Africas problem; Africa says it is SADC’s problem; SADC says it is Zimbabwes problem;
Mugabe says Zimbabwe is his problem and he will solve every one of his problems.
The marxist in charge of Zimbabwe has no private sector getting in his way, he has rid the nation of the white colonists and soon he will have solved the problem of democracy.
He has succeeded at everything he set out to do.
Which leaves us with one question:
Is a state which has achieved every one of its governments goals a failed state?
Chris Cross, Harare, Zimbabwe
“Trust in the US dollar?
Think Zimbabwe”
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I can’t think of a better comparison with the U S than Zimbabwe. The main difference is that we don’t call corn “maize.” And we haven’t yet gotten rid of our white colonists. Other than that it is a parallel situation. Good find.
How about:
Argentina
Brazil
China
Germany
Hungary
Israel
Russia
Yugoslavia
USA: Continental Currency in the 1770’s and Confederate Currency in the 1860’s…
See any paralells?
I think the main parallels between the U S and that list of countries is the living standards, opportunities, and freedom enjoyed by the average citizens. Most Americans would be glad to live in one of those countries instead.
Not.
When I look around I see prosperity unequaled in time or place anywhere in history.
Others see only disaster. That tells you more about who is doing the observing than what is being observed.
Got Prozac?
Tell me grate one…
You’ve already expressed your knowledge historically of things yellow and it all began in 1980, according to you, as stated many times~
All i’ve ever seen you do is knock ideas.
I’ve never really heard any ideas coming from you.
Why is that?
Brad,
I respectfully differ with you. I have traveled the world many times since 1965. I was in South America last year, I’ll be in Africa in a week. But when you write “When I look around I see prosperity unequaled in time or place anywhere in history”, I have to disagree. I remember the 1960s wealth that you so cavalierly dismiss. Buying a new car did not require a 5 year loan, most mortgages were less than 15 yrs, most wives did not have to work to pay bills. NOT NOW!!!
Brad, what you think of as wealth I regard as a dramatically falling standard of living.
If I lived in Chicago, I would drive an SUV just to survive their potholes. The trains haven’t been updated in 50 -80 yrs. Other US cities are in similar boats. Have you been in Buenos Aires lately? Why do you think the Bush family just bought a ranch in Paraguay? Minimum wage in the US is $5.15/hr, in Ireland it is 8 Euros.
Your concept of wealth can be painlessly etched in block letters on my forehead.
Is Popcorn Neil getting married today… sorry trying to catch up on gossip
You are correct.
Builders hiring more workers
400 new jobs in April perplex economists
By Dean Calbreath
STAFF WRITER
May 19, 2007
For the second month in a row, construction firms in San Diego County hired hundreds of new workers last month, despite the continuing decline in home building, according to data released yesterday by the California Employment Development Department.
Local construction firms added 400 jobs in April after hiring 800 new workers in March, according to the department’s monthly jobs report. The recent hiring reversed a slump that began last June, when home construction started a sharp slowdown.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070519/news_1b19jobs.html
I need some help with ethics and legalities of RE transactions:
1) A friend told us about an upcoming FSBO in Feb, we went to the house, walked around the yard and talked to the friend about it. But the owners were out of town, so we didn’t go inside. A week or two later we heard the asking price (way too high) and decided to pass.
2) This house didn’t see FSBO so they used a flat fee listing service to get it on the MLS (same price). It still didn’t sell.
3) We found an RE agent and started looking at homes.
4) THe price dropped $10k and we asked our agent to show us the home. We made a low ball offer, they countered, we countered, they refused to negotiate further and the deal fell through.
5) My wife went and cried to her friend the neighbor, the neighbor talked with owners, and owners asked the neighbor to have us call. We called and they offered to accept our previous final offer if no RE agent was involved.
They have an “open” flat rate MLS listing, and insist that they have no legal obligation to pay a buyers agent anything. As I understand it, this is legally possible in WA state, but every MLS listing does have an agreed commission for the buyers agent so why would our agent show us this home if there was no commission?
Ethically, I don’t feel bad about this because (1) we signed nothing and never agreed to pay our agent anything (that is the seller’s responsibility); (2) we were tracking this home long before even meeting this agent; and (3) this sale was absolutely dead in the water with RE agents involved, so our agent wasn’t going to get a commission regardless.
But I am a bit concerned that the sellers could be legally liable and somehow we could be involved in a lawsuit for being complicit.
On a more general note:
Deep down, I also don’t really believe that a realtor “deserves” $9k for less than 20 hours of work. Moreover, I’ve seen a Realtor fight like crazy to claim a 3% commission from a friend who found a lot and builder and negotiated a purchase price himself. I’ve seen a Realtor charge the full 6% to a seller when my brother represented himself in a purchase (though it made not difference to him, my brother found the elderly seller at home to report this agent’s actions). I don’t think much of RE agents.