Post Local Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Rising foreclosures? Motivated sellers? “Fort Wayne and other historically stable housing markets in the Midwest probably will not experience wild swings in housing prices, though home prices are trending downward, according to experts.”
“David Augustyniak, owner of RealtyFlex Corporate LLC in Fort Wayne, said prices are dipping because some sellers are growing more desperate. Desperation drives prices down.”
“‘If you’ve got 12 like-type listings, someone is going to be more desperate to sell than the others, and the trend is going to follow the cheapest price. This establishes a new base and comparables,’ he said.”
“One factor affecting housing prices across the country and locally is the fallout from the low-cost refinance boom of the recent past. Overaggressive lenders and appraisers have produced a lot of home equity ‘that isn’t really there,’ Augustyniak said.”
“Augustyniak said he heard from a title company that six out of 10 homes sold now are short sales, meaning the outstanding debt is greater than what the property is worth.”
New investigations? “New York State is investigating Manhattan real estate practices, seeking information about whether brokers pressured appraisers to inflate property values as prices doubled in the last five years.”
“Attorney Y. David Scharf said the subpoena called for information about ‘mortgage lenders, mortgage brokers, real estate brokers and sales persons and appraisal management companies.’”
“Appraisers frequently face pressure to revise their findings, said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel.”
“‘I would seriously doubt that there is one appraiser in the United States that has not been on more than one occasion pressured to make a number,’ Miller said.”
A local economist? “Alan Garner, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said that despite troubling news about foreclosures and home-price appreciation rates, the state’s real estate market was headed for brighter days.”
“Garner noted ’serious concerns’ about the economy overall, and said ‘the housing market is the source of many of those concerns.’”
Local earnings power? “The median income of Realtors last year was $47,700, down from $49,300 in 2004, according to a newly released survey of members of the National Association of Realtors.”
“Realtors with two years of experience or less earned a median of $15,300. That hardly pays the cell phone bills and fills the tank with gas.”
Signs of speculation? “Real estate flippers watch out, local developers are cracking down. Seattle condominium market expert Warren Ballard says it creates annoying competition for developers.”
“‘If the developer has remaining inventory to sell, then the flippers come in essentially competing with the developer,’ he said. ‘So the developer has a lot of incentive to try to keep flippers out of the game.’”
“Ballard says out-of-control investor flipping artificially inflates property values, ultimately leading to a market crash.”
“‘The big crashes that we’ve seen in the real estate market in Florida, San Diego and Las Vegas can all be directly attributed to flippers,’ Ballard said.”
They’re still building here (rural NE Texas), but it’s one house at a time, mostly by the people who are going to live in it. I have seen a lot more for-sale signs in the nearest town than I recall seeing in the past, though.
Dallas area?
Some good deals out there. Runup last 4 years was not so bad as rest of country, but still over-priced. But you get so much more Sq. Footage in that part of the country. Still a good place to live, and the rains have returned this year…to a degree. Good jobs in IT, also.
About 80 miles ENE of Dallas, too far to commute on a daily basis. I rent an apartment in Allen (northern suburb of Dallas) to stay in during the week, then come home to my country house on the weekends.
Subprime delinquencies higher than reported (OCR)
Forget that 13% subprime delinquency number you heard about so much in the press and which some politicos and real estate folks turned on its head pointing out 87% of subprime borrowers are paying their mortgage.
I took another look at the transcript from the first-quarter conference call of IndyMac Bancorp, and caught this statement from CEO Michael Perry:
On subprime loans, one of the things that I think people aren’t aware of is that the Mortgage Bankers Association basically classifies the lender as a prime lender or a subprime lender. So for example, they classify IndyMac and Countrywide as prime lenders, and they classify New Century or whoever as a subprime lender. And all of their servicing portfolio is considered prime or subprime for the MBA. Ok? And so when you see that delinquency number in the press of 13% subprime delinquencies, it’s hugely understated. It is absolutely hugely understated. And the prime delinquencies are overstated.The subprime delinquencies are more like 18, 20, 22% delinquencies and that’s where I think you’re going to see the problems.”
To see if Perry had it right, I quizzed the MBA and got this in response from Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics:
“Mr. Perry is correct that we have to differentiate by the type of servicer rather than the type of loan. This may not be a major issue because our latest subprime numbers are 14.4% delinquent by at least one payment, plus another 4.5% in foreclosure, for a total of 18.9% either delinquent or in foreclosure. For just subprime ARMs that number is 21.1%, so we agree with Mr. Perry’s estimates of the current state of the market.”
A little math computation on the problem:
21.1% x $40,000,000,000 = $8,440,000 delinquent /NOD’s for 6/07
” 43 ” ” ” = $9,073,000 ” ” ” 7/07
” 45 ” ” ” = $9,495,000 ” ” ” 8/07
” 48 ” ” ” =$10,128,000 ” ” ” 9/07
” 51 ” ” ” =$10,761,000 ” ” ” 10/07
” 55 ” ” ” =$11,605,000 ” ” ” 11/07
” 60 ” ” ” =$12,660,000 ” ” ” 12/07
At the current rate of delinquency the next six months of non- interest bearing loans is $72.162 billion, related to sub-prime.
See its well contained. Stocks go up that much every day Or they must.
But this is not accounting for the fiat fractional share implosion related to this debt….the wizard behind the curtain.
$72 billion of non interst bearing, no pay debt created a 10*X supply of money, that created other debt. So the true implosion is $72b*10 fractional fiat factor (or12)
= $720 billion or nearly 3/4 of a trillion of debt placed in foreclosure Limbo. While the math kidz figure out who actually owns what, the bathroom sink or the kitchen fan?
Now unless, you do accounting like our government, these lenders need to take charge offs “called reseerves” in Q3 & Q4 of this magnitude.
Oh lest I forget, Bushie signed an “executive order” in 2006 that said in case of emergency no write off necessary, & no SEC reporting….”party on Garth”
What astonishes me is that seemingly literate and intelligent people still refer to Bush as a “conservative.”
Came this close… to being named Septemberyniak
“David Augustyniak, owner of RealtyFlex Corporate LLC in Fort Wayne, said prices are dipping because some sellers are growing more desperate. Desperation drives prices down.”
Lansner blog: Insider Q&A gets USC’s housing outlook
http://tinyurl.com/lzgbg
I love the poll on that page. Which segment of the OC market will recover first… Top, bottom, middle?
NONE!!!!!
That wasn’t an option.
Heh heh…guess JL doesn’t really want to “keep it real”…
I just posted a comment… what a stupid ass poll.
He didn’t discuss *when* the OC market will recover, did he? 2016? 2022? 2026?
But it’s different there…
“New York State is investigating Manhattan real estate practices, seeking information about whether brokers pressured appraisers to inflate property values as prices doubled in the last five years.”
report on NY1 today with Spinola of REBNY, Manhattan aprtments up 23% in one year. This clearly is the top in NYC. We are behind the rest of the nation which I expected. But as it is, people are stretched to pay $1M for a so so 2BR 2BA coop in a decent neighborhood in manhattan.
Must be the swarm of Irish buying the NYC properties up.
Sorry too lazy to register, Reference May 8, 2007 NYT
http://www.azcentral.com/community/gilbert/articles/0518gr-summerhomes0518-ON.html
If you want to sell your Phoenix home, drop the price…. A LOT!
Real estate agent Joanne Webley refers herein to the “traditional summer peak selling season.” What? I really have no statistics, but I can promise you, summer is not when the activity in my business occurs. Everyone is inside in a tub of cold water.
I’m starting to hear about the “peak” summer selling season here in Pullman, WA. However, looking at statistics from past years, probably 70%+ of homes sold closed by the end of May (therefore accepted offers by April). The peak selling season has come and gone….
WAIT. WAIT. WAIT. I had to read that twice. This woman bought a home with her husband last November, and now needs to sell it because of a divorce? Now that, ladies and gentlemen, is a flipper. (dolphin sounds)
What I’ve noticed is that a disporportionate number of FB couples have different last names, presumably meaning they’re not married. Going in on a house with someone who lacks the commitment to marry you would seem to be a red flag. That said, I suspect a huge number of divorces are going to occur in the coming months/years as harpies like that shrew from the infamous “Suzanne Researched This” Century 21 commerical get their walking papers from the fed-up, hen-pecked husbands who finally crack under the strain of the financial burdens incurred by their wives’ galatic sense of entitlement.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw
“Suzanne Researched This” - The most ill-conceived yet telling realtor’s commercial of all time.
My husband and I don’t have the same last name either. The funny thing he wants to buy badly and I’m holding him back >; )
At least you don’t have one of those pretentious hyphenated last names. As George Carlin said, “Hey lady, pick a damned name!”
I don’t understand these people who change houses as though they’re changing handbags! This woman has 2 kids (2 & 5) and she’s getting divorced and she’s looking to BUY??? Almost without exception when a party divorces their credit scores drop. How could she possibly qualify for a new loan??? And with 2 small children she has child care expenses that are not always compensated for in marital settlements particularly if joint custody is awarded. How can she afford to do this???!!
~Misstrial
No, no. She’s not looking to buy. She bought back in November with an $85K discount. The discounts have gotten larger since then, so now she can’t sell.
Damned Daunting Discountery
An update on the “Going Sideways” article about the market in Fort Wayne. During April, average prices dropped to $ 106,124 in Allen county. Median price was $ 93,900. Allen county has 330,000 people with very adequate schools and universities. $ 100,000 will buy you a very nice 3 bedroom, 1800-2400 square feet house in a safe community.
At some point, the really low price of housing has to be a factor in kick starting this rust-bucket economy.
Only if one can find a decent job there
Agreed. My relatives live in Indiana and the only work is retail and the high paying jobs are $10-12 per hour. Probably a nice secure job would be a sheriff job doing forclosures.
- Also, prisons are really secure jobs.
Check out this e-CON-omist’s spin…
Housing is doing just fine, and then the CYA nonsense below, a less than impressive “One Blame Fit’s All” cover-up.
I say we Garner his wages, for services, not rendered.
“Alan Garner, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said that despite troubling news about foreclosures and home-price appreciation rates, the state’s real estate market was headed for brighter days.”
“Garner noted ’serious concerns’ about the economy overall, and said ‘the housing market is the source of many of those concerns.’”
In the full post, his real message is “Colorado is relatively well positioned going forward.” Yeah! Maybe relative to San Diego, Sacramento, Port Saint Lucie, and certain Phoenix burbs.
“the state’s real estate market was headed for brighter days”
It is not really a lie or falsehood. The context suggests ‘Real Estate’, but the subject matter is the weather. And excluding those that live in San Diego environs, the weather changes from spring (sometimes wet) to summer bright, sunshiny and longer days.
Aurum est potestas.
gov worker so he’ll get a raise
it’s automatic
“the parasite class” T Jefferson
Check out this e-CON-omist’s spin…
Housing is doing just fine, and then the CYA nonsense below, a less than impressive “One Blame Fit’s All” cover-up.
I say we Garner his wages, for services, not rendered.
“Alan Garner, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said that despite troubling news about foreclosures and home-price appreciation rates, the state’s real estate market was headed for brighter days.”
“Garner noted ’serious concerns’ about the economy overall, and said ‘the housing market is the source of many of those concerns.’”
Panel urges rent control expansion (LAT)
http://tinyurl.com/ynr7ld
We are all aware that rent control leads to slums and rental shortage. Pushing up prices for decent apartments.
So, is L.A. trying to save the housing prices by pushing up rents?
Or are these “do gooders” just totally clueless about unintended consequences?
Ha, that’s great, rent control for new buildings means less new construction which means more demand for my old, worn out 1950s units. Thanks City of LA!
DQ numbers are in today’s LATimes, and something very interesting happened in Santa Monica during April. In the McMansion zip, 90402, fully 13 houses sold at an average price of $958/ft, for a YOY rise in the median price of 31.8%. I’m not sure what to make of this, I guess some wealthy folks saw what they thought were bargains. Either that or we’re about to see another round of tear-downs and some new McMansions built north of Montana.
In other news of note, the number of condo sales citywide seems to be falling, but people are still dramatically overpaying for condo conversions. In at least one case well over $1,000,000 for a three bedroom apartment. Median prices of condo sales are generally up YOY, so some of the nice ones must have sold as well.
In all reality, Realtors are ready to serve you…
“Would you like fires with that?, please pay at the 1st window”
“Realtors with two years of experience or less earned a median of $15,300. That hardly pays the cell phone bills and fills the tank with gas.”
Hmm, did you mean “fries” Aladdin? No, I guess you did mean “fires”
It was the best of both words…
Lord of the Flies, housing style…
“‘If the developer has remaining inventory to sell, then the flippers come in essentially competing with the developer,’ he said. ‘So the developer has a lot of incentive to try to keep flippers out of the game.’”
Subprime delinquencies higher than reported (OCR blog)
Forget that 13% subprime delinquency number you heard about so much in the press and which some politicos and real estate folks turned on its head pointing out 87% of subprime borrowers are paying their mortgage.
I took another look at the transcript from the first-quarter conference call of IndyMac Bancorp, and caught this statement from CEO Michael Perry:
On subprime loans, one of the things that I think people aren’t aware of is that the Mortgage Bankers Association basically classifies the lender as a prime lender or a subprime lender. So for example, they classify IndyMac and Countrywide as prime lenders, and they classify New Century or whoever as a subprime lender. And all of their servicing portfolio is considered prime or subprime for the MBA. Ok? And so when you see that delinquency number in the press of 13% subprime delinquencies, it’s hugely understated. It is absolutely hugely understated. And the prime delinquencies are overstated.The subprime delinquencies are more like 18, 20, 22% delinquencies and that’s where I think you’re going to see the problems.”
To see if Perry had it right, I quizzed the MBA and got this in response from Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics:
“Mr. Perry is correct that we have to differentiate by the type of servicer rather than the type of loan. This may not be a major issue because our latest subprime numbers are 14.4% delinquent by at least one payment, plus another 4.5% in foreclosure, for a total of 18.9% either delinquent or in foreclosure. For just subprime ARMs that number is 21.1%, so we agree with Mr. Perry’s estimates of the current state of the market.”
That’s interesting because it brings the likely foreclosure tsunami nearer in time AND a possible recovery nearer in time. See Credit Suisse ARM reset chart. Subprime resets peak end of 07; the reset wave 2010-11 is more Alt-A and others.
Wells Fargo moves to block New Century asset sale
Just when it looked like Irvine-based New Century Financial’s liquidation was over, Wells Fargo is trying to block the sale of its last major asset, reports Dow Jones. Citing concerns that Carrington Capital Management doesn’t have what it takes to handle the business, Wells Fargo Bank has moved to block the hedge fund’s $188 million purchase of the New Century Financial’s mortgage loan-servicing unit.
Appraisers frequently face pressure to revise their findings, said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel.”
“‘I would seriously doubt that there is one appraiser in the United States that has not been on more than one occasion pressured to make a number,’ Miller said.”
Wooweee…where does the media find these people to quote?
“ONE” occasion, Mr. Miller? Are you kidding me?
Get a friggin’ life.
After the appraisal management companies took over, I used to get an inquiry to hit a number every hour of the fookin’ work day.
Hell, as far as I’m concerned the only one’s who survive in the appraisal biz as a full time profession are either the hack-shop grammies lookin’ for extra egg & pin money who don’t have a clue as to what they are doing, or the 20-something hot shot computer canned comment number hitter who could give a rats azz about anything other than makin’ their BMW payment.
hd74man - you need to actually read the quote in full…on more than “one” occasion. But I agree completely with your point, which was the point of my quote.
I think you mis-read the quotation. Miller is saying that every appraiser in the U.S. has been pressured to make numbers multiple times in his/her career….
And to think the term Flipper, came from an innocent little tv show, some 40 odd years ago…
They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster, not bright he
No one you see, has less mental capacity
And we know Flipper, lives in an upside down world full of blunder
Flying there-under, under his crappyshacks last deeds
Everyone loves mocking this king of gambling
Soon they’ll be scrambling…
Foreclosures in Northern Virginia counties have doubled in the last month. Prince William County has 12 months of inventory. Nothing has sold in our upscale development in 15 months. (We are west of Prince William). In the outlying counties, one can reasonably expect to pay at least 15% off of 2005 prices, and perhaps more.
thanks Arwen U. for the NOVA update. I’m glad I left NOVA 2 years ago.
This is anecdotal, but in one block of townhouses in South Riding, prices topped at $430-$450k in 2005-2006. Most recent sales were $345k and $365k for identical units, or about 20% off from the top.
Another block had a top 2005 price of $460k. Currently, that unit is on the market for $500k. Too bad his neighbor (with an identical unit) just sold for $365k!
A neighbor of mine in Boston put his house on the market 1/06.
He priced it at $579,000 (zillowed at that time at $521k) probably the absolute peak of the market.
He sold it for $445,000 in April, 23% down from his price and 15% below the peak zillow estimate of 1/06. Since it was empty for over a year he probably lost another $25,000 in interest, taxes and insurance.
I’m actually surprised it sold at $445,000. The bottom here has a ways to go, at least another 15%.
Hope the purchaser had a good home inspector.
The Globe ran a recent article about how all the pilings holding up buildings in the Back Bay are rotting because of their exposure to air caused by falling water tables.
Repairs can tally more than the building is worth.
Sheese, the extravagency of noueveau riche of Boston. Here in Texas we just have water beds.
Oop North, you have water tables. Oh la la. What is wrong with granite tops I ask? Oh the humanity…
For those not familiar w/the history of Boston, the Back Bay is built on fill. It literally was once “the Bay”. It would be a shame to lose those historic brownstones.
hd74,have you heard any attempts being made to save those buildings? Perhaps Ms Heinz Kerry?
Billings, MT.
There’s a local Realtor who advertises herself as “Billings’ Best Realtor.” Her website says “Choose your agent wisely!” It goes on to say, “I am an ACTIVE Real Estate Professional. I work a full work week staying on top of the market.”
This Realtor also has pages about new construction and spec homes, with the “4-step No Risk plan.” And there’s a page warning people not to FSBO.
She had a spec home built a year ago and couldn’t sell it. So she puts up a huge stencil-painted sign on a minor arterial street saying “WILL SELL FOR COST” with her personal phone number.. presumably to avoid paying broker fees.
That didn’t work. So in the last few months, she finally put up her brokerage sign. The price was dropped I think $30,000 below what it originally was. Still no takers.
Foreclosure proceedings were started a few months back, and in early May it went back to the bank (the same bank that she advertises on her site for construction loans!)
So.. choose your agent wisely, indeed!
Sorry for the delay on my housing video update. I’m waiting on some data from a few of my sources still.
Well, if you think about it, foreclosure and all, she just might be the best RE agent around.
my real estate agent is doing the exact same thing, except she doesn’t have the resource to advertize here in Bozeman. For now she is escaping foreclosure by renting and paying the difference either with sugardaddy money or mom’s hard earn cash. It is hard to say how long she can keep this up.
Umm Cinch, why is Bubbles your RE agent? Is there some sort alternative commission structure?
I don’t understand your question in relation to Tango’s comment above. You have to clarify.
Well, it was just a bit of unsuccessful sarcasm.
Yep, a lot of the realtors I knew in Bozeman were actively speculating in the market… buying as many houses as they could leverage into. (And bragging about all the money they were making.) They are now facing a double whammy–no job and negative cash flow on depreciating assets.
Interesting. Stupid as those realtors are, they may actually have been among the few honest ones who believed the rah rah swill they were selling.
Actually, my experience was that the vast majority of real estate agents really did believe the NAR sound bites. Just about every RE agent I’ve met in the past couple of years was actively speculating in residential real estate.
No way realtors appraisors and mtg brokers did anything wrong or were in collusion.
Yeah Right!
Now. Now. Just because there is a conflict of interest, it doesn’t mean it’s wrong. (finger wagging)
What conflict? They all had the same interest - to sell houses for the highest possible price.
None of these parties represent the interests of they buyer. Anyone whose compensation rises with the selling price is representing the seller.
Properties that have sold hang interesting riders on their lawn signs. For instance, one sign had a rider that screamed: BOUGHT!
another: Sorry, TOO LATE! This one was in front of a property that was initially FSBO. It was a tear-down, and across the street from a funeral home. Yup, I’m kicking myself for missing that opportunity.
It appears that some brainiac noticed there was a lack of urgency in the buying public, and their dinky signs are how they are trying to create it.
Well, hold on now. “Sorry, TOO LATE” might refer to a foreclosure. Phillygal, don’t go making nun of them there assumptions.
Can grieving relatives sue for a sign “Sorry, too late” in front of a funeral home?
Would’t that make a great SNL skit?
Here on an estuary leading to the western part of Jericho Bay (Maine), this waterfront house that had no showings in Nov, Dec, Jan, Mar, or April did have one showing in Feb and another showing today with a brand-new $50K price drop. I’ll let y’all know if I receive my contractual 60 days’ notice to move out. Not sweating.
This crap just got promoted on the local news here….
http://www.swapyourhouse.com/default.aspx
Two people that want to sell, buy each others’ houses at full appraisal value… allowing them to get new loans they can’t get through simple refi.
WHAT? If you can’t refi, and they can’t refi, how could each of you new-fi each others houses?
The ONLY way I see this working is if a foolish lender accepts a higher appraisal for new-fi vs. refi.
I love this line from the FAQ:
“8.) What if I want to buy a new build?
A: You can; First you can Swap by downsizing to a smaller house to use as a rental that can to obtain a positive cash flow, then get it rented and then go! You usually have some build time to make this happen.”
1) There are no houses that can be rented to generate a positive cash flow.
2) If there is such a house, why would someone swap your falling knife in exchange for a positive cash flow property?
What a load of dung.
LMAO.
Yeah, there will be a lot of reluctant landlords soon. I should say the number of reluctant landlords is growing by the days. They are also known as bagholders. Bagholders are the most optimistic people you’ll come across. Am I confusing denial with optimism?
Wonder what their business model is. I.e., do they charge commissions or advertising fees or what. I didn’t want to email them to find out, who needs months of junk replies.
I believe their business model involves a dartboard and Coco The Monkey.
LOL!
I opened the front door this morning and an orange and white intruder thrust his arm out toward me. Luckily I had the LA Times real estate section handy and, scrolled up, it proved a potent weapon. After beating the man to death, I realized that this orange tanned man with sparkling white teeth was in fact a realtor and his lifeless hand was clutching his business card.
On a lighter note, the real estate section truly is enornmous. It could just be my imagination, but it truly seems like inventory is rising dramatically and we’re starting to see a lot of REDUCED!!! descriptions in the ads. Beverywood and B. Adj, Silverlake, North Hollywood, Westchester all seem poised for imminent fall as some are starting to price lower. In Beverlywood, (or B. Adj, who the hell can tell the difference?), there were a pair of nearly identical houses prices 400K or so apart.
As the late, great John Belushi once screamed: “Sayonara, suckers!”
I also noticed that the Real Estate section was larger than normal (the SFV edition). The truly sobering fact is looking at realtytrac for a given zipcode and seeing the sheer number of bankowned and preforeclosure properties in the map view. There’s no freakin’ way that this isn’t going to cause MAJOR price declines.
sigh….I wish you could tell that to the 30 - 40 sellers who listed on ZipRealty this morning…
…most 90210 ‘adjacent’, all for over $1 million.
Seriously, I’m getting really bored of waiting for something to drop.
Shoes, jaws, prices, at this point I’d settle for one of them.
Speedingpullet, I’m kind of at wits end too, and dying to be able to report the kind of stuff we get from people in Sacramento, Arizona, etc. Also, I have to double check myself every time because I don’t want to be carried away by my wishful thinking. That being said, Lionel and laarquitect are right. I look at open houses every single weekend, regardless of whether they are in my price range or not, and although I haven’t seen a decline in my zip, 90024, some houses have simply not sold. In surrounding areas such as Mar Vista, the inventory is astounding, and there are many houses under 1 million. I don’t know when, but sometime this year or next year reality will have to set in. I’m sure that when we look back we won’t think it took such a long time. The waiting is killing me, though.
dying to be able to report the kind of stuff we get from people in Sacramento, Arizona, etc
Inland Empire is tanking. The rot starts at the fringe and moves inward to the core. This is exactly how it happened last time in the early 1990s. IE/Palmcaster first, then the valleys and marginal suburbs, and then finally metro LA and the coast. The Westside will be the last to tank, but tank it will.
I’m sure running out of patience, see my report above.
Per Zip the Washington, DC area blasted through the 60k mark without much resistance this week.
5/19 - There are 61,134 homes for sale in Washington D.C. Area
3/17 - There are 48,144 homes for sale in Washington D.C. Area
1/17 - There are 45,595 homes for sale in Washington D.C. Area
Citizens of Phoenix are so angered by this, they apparently have declared Inventory War on the Nation’s Capital.
Does ZIP include Baltimore in that (I know that some data source out there was combining Washington and Baltimore for inventory figures)?
geeah:
thanks for the laugh!
I don’t trust those numbers. We are starting to get snippets of reality in the business press on the DC area that is a lot bleaker. There are said to be 40,000 newly-constructed, never lived in single family, detached houses for sale in the area. That is astounding, and does not include town houses, condos or “existing,” (lived in) houses. The Post reported (buried in the Business Section this week) that there is a 3.4 year supply of condos on the market - they didn’t give the inventory number but 3.4 years is a heck of a lot. We shall see…..
DC_Too,
I agree that the condo inventory is too high and will lead to a crash in condo prices. They are falling already. But going west from DC up to Fairfax county’s western border, prices of SFHs and THs are still not declining to the extent one would expect. Just yesterday, the Post carried an article about multiple offers over the asking price in closer-in areas.
The madness of the crowds that are willing to take 8 times income mortgages and the crazy lenders who enable that are keeping this going. Until lenders tighten it more significantly or the economy goes into a recession, this madness will likely to continue. How long? My estimate of how long has been proven wrong by the crowds in the last few years, so I don’t want to give an answer. We need to see high intensity of pain among those who overpaid and a huge amount of foreclosures before we see heavy decline across the board.
Agreed. But, there are parts of No. VA that are getting hit pretty hard already. It may take several years, but when the dime-a-dozen 100K Iraq War/Homeland Security jobs evaporate, there is going to be hell to pay.
Somebody bring it on in NYC. In Manhattan and Brooklyn they’re partying and sucking down kool-aid like it’s 2005 or 2006. The lights are going out in distant parts of Queens, L.I. and Jersey, but those places do not exist for those living at the center of the known universe. Seriously, the blogs still are full of bidding wars, new price levels breached, one-day sales. Unbelievable.
NYC is just topping out now.
How can you tell whether they are topping out, or just shooting straight up to the moon (and only 1/2 way there)?
anecdotely I see what people are buying and knowing how much they are stretching to afford it
Here in southern New Mexico things have not changed since my last report. Builders are finishing up projects that were already on contract. The building pace for custom homes has slowed dramatically in 88007. I guess the retiree/cashouts flow has been stemmed at least for a while.
To the retirees that have or are considering moving to NM: be advised that your bills for doctor, dentist, or attorney visits are charged State sales tax of 3% for each and every visit/service at the time of service. I guess “SmartMoney” magazine or whatever magazine it was that placed NM on some stupid list of “Best Places to Retire 2005″ “forgot” to inform you all of this tax. They also “forgot” to tell you of the lack of flood control and storm drains.
~Misstrial
sales tax of 3% for each and every visit/service at the time of service
Would that really be a show-stopper for anyone? I would guess that the base price for medical services would be cheaper by far more than 3% in NM than in major cities on the coast.
It turns the idea of a sales tax—encouraging saving over consumption and discouraging use of scarce resources and unhealthy behavior—on its head. Tax cigarettes and beer and gasoline, not doctor and dental visits.
Washington Post real estate section today has an article on some close-in neighborhoods that may be doing relatively better
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/18/AR2007051800754.html
Bright Spots: Why Some Homes Are Able to Inspire Bidding Wars in a Slow Market
Some real estate agents say that, despite key statistics that show the slowest housing market in years, they are seeing cases of multiple bids and rising prices. These seem to be concentrated in close-in neighborhoods including Del Ray, Bethesda and Chevy Chase (both sides of the Maryland-District line) and American University Park in the District.
—————————————–
On a related note: a friend of mine put an offer on a house in Bethesda, MD., yesterday — and says there are 3 or 4 other offers on the house as well. House was priced at $790,000 — he has some esclators that could take him up to $850k or so, I believe. He doesn’t think he will get it.
If you go to foreclosure.com and find preforeclosures and foreclosures for the OC - the numbers look like this
3/26/07 3891
4/2/07 3,975
4/6/07 4026
4/8/07 4165
5/3/07 4263
5/11/07 4483
5/18/07 4618
thx. perfect for a point i was trying to make at work.
Things are marching right along in Maryland. I consider Glen Burnie a good “canary in the coal mine” since it is an old, blue-collar area near where I live that is full of old, small homes that should be cheap starter homes. Median household income for that area is about $55K. Naturally, almost no houses start for under $200K and $250+ is almost required. Also, some loons have built $350K “starter homes” there as well as $450K to $500K+ McMansions. Insanity - nobody has that kind of money here, and if they do, they don’t live in Glen Burnie!
As of today, there are about 450+ listings on Realtor.com and over 120 listings on Foreclosure.com. That should mean something… 1 foreclosure for every 4 homes listed, and one by one, some homes are slipping from the For Sale pile into the Foreclose pile. This should get rather interesting later in the year.
The Lehigh Valley in PA is getting crushed by foreclosures, the local paper, the morning call, still paints a pretty picture (because the local realtors control them like robots) but the area is getting crushed. Foreclosures are up 40% and that was in March, there’s got too be 18-24 months of inventory available. 90% of the homes on the market were bought from 2003-2006. The amount of rental homes available (pre-foreclosures) is astronomical. By the middle of 2008 our prices should be back to pre 2001 levels are worse. We has one of the biggest bubbles in the country, it’s something nobody is really watching this area. Commuters from NJ & NYC were driving 3-5 hours a day, they stopped coming in 05 & 06, now the area is getting nailed. Anyone stupid enough to think homes around here would and should go up in price by 100% in 5 years, deserves to foreclosed on. Not many people can handle driving all that time, if leaves you with no use for home, you can sleep in your car. Now central NJ is getting slammed with foreclosures too, these commuters are watching homes in their former areas sell for cheaper than they paid here, that’s so funny!
Ben, the blog is excellent, but particularly so in recent weeks. Good show.
“‘The big crashes that we’ve seen in the real estate market in Florida, San Diego and Las Vegas can all be directly attributed to flippers,’ Ballard said.”
Our newspaper (the SD Union Tribune) sure has kept the ‘big crash’ a closely guarded secret, if they even have a clue about it. Nonetheless, I believe the data speak for themselves.
I produce a snapshot below using April 2007 San Diego SFR sales data from Sandicor:
New = Total value of new listings by list price
Sold = Total value of sales
New/Sold = ratio of total value of new listings to total sales
Community New Sold New/Sold
————- ——– ——- ——
Chula Vista $255m $52m 4.9
Carlsbad $176m $84m 2.1
El Cajon $125m $43m 2.9
Encinitas $108m $45m 2.4
Escondido $174m $31m 5.6
La Jolla $178m $72m 2.5
Oceanside $148m $44m 3.4
Rancho Santa Fe $237m $62m 3.8
Rancho Bernardo $182m $67m 2.7
Carmel Valley $106m $51m 2.1
Other $1,697m $537m 3.2
==========================
TOTAL $3,387m $1,088m 3.1
When there are $3.4b in new listings (valued by the seller’s list price) compared to $1.1b in sales, the market certainly appears to be undergoing equilibrium adjustment. Either that, or something north of $2b worth of newly listed homes are only trial balloons to see just how hot the market is this year.
The rightmost figure in each line is the ratio of total value of new SFR listings in April 2007 to the total SFR sales. Especially striking are the ratios for Escondido (5.6) and Chula Vista (4.9), areas where a sudden dearth of sales relative to new listings is likely driven by the subprime implosion. However, Rancho Santa Fe, where subprime is presumably not a factor (the median list price in 92067 currently stands at $3.595m, a bit high for most subprime borrowers), also had a surprisingly high ratio of the value of new listings to sales for April (3.8).
This is exaclty what I have been looking for…its so me. I think if I can get 30% off, a neg am pay option from CFC and a decent appraisal I might be able to swing this one…
http://tinyurl.com/2dvgq4
“…the seven-floor castle has a dungeon that could be used for a friendlier purpose — a restaurant, perhaps, or an extensive [realtor] cellar.”
SD ziprealty, SFRs + Condos:
“Your search has returned the first 200 of 18542 homes”
On Feb 1, there were 15,000 homes on the market, so our inventory has grown by 23.6 percent over less than 12 weeks (about 300 net new listings a week).
In our zip code (Rancho Bernardo W 92127), Sandicor data for April 2007 showed a median SFR sale price of $725,000, while the median SFR list price stands today at $1,397,888. How long can the median sale price for a particular zip code persist at a level which is 52% of the median list price? (My guess: NOT FOR LONG…).
Here in North Park (way south of University) houses are still selling, it just takes longer. In 2004 houses here sold in a week. Now it takes 8 months. For example, I’ve been watching a little house on Redwood which has been for sale forever. It finally sold on May1 for $505,000. I don’t know what the asking price was, but on Zillow I see the sellers purchased it in 2004 for $477,500.
Out here in Kauai the best deals don’t appear to be on the MLS. I see
listings for those that are sold taken from the county deed transactions
and the homes selling for more reasonable prices just cannot be found
through conventional means. Inventory is going up more slowly now (5%
per month) when compared to last year. There is a huge inventory
for a population of this size (65K) and with wages very low there is
some serious pain ahead!
Not directly a real estate comment — Mom decided she wanted to go out to dinner last night, and dutiful son (me) tried to get reservations at some of the nicer places in Alexandria — I know it’s short notice, and this is prom/graduation/nice-weather-lets-go-out season, but I was still struck by half the places being “fully committed” and half offering 5:30 or 9:00 pm reservations. (I tried about the 10 best places in Alexandria)
Finally went to Bebo - a really large Italian place in Crystal City (the casual sibling of high-end Gallileo in DC [currently being renovated] as walk-in. Place was packed, and dinner was good (service is friendly, but slooooow). Suprised how crowded the new South Crystal Drive restuarant row in Crystal City is (especially since Pentagon Row and Shirlington have also expanded - and I presume were also well-crowded).
I truly think tighter times are ahead for real estate and the economy even in the close-in DC suburbs — but you wouldn’t know it from last night.
If anyone sees ChrisUSC, please direct him to this post, or tell him to tag me in another thread. I had posted that I would be attending the Refuse to Be A Victim seminar (3 hours) in SouthShore Tampa Bay over the weekend. That’s what I did yesterday and Chris asked me to post more information about it. It is a seminar on personal safety and security put together by the NRA (no matter what you think of the NRA, it is an excellent seminar that focuses more on awareness, avoidance and prevention than it does on weapons, although at the end there is a brief discussion of that subject) and given by local residents in communities all over the country who are trained to give the seminar. Some are active or ex law enforcement or security personnel, etc. Excellent seminar and very comprehensive, I really learned a lot of things I didn’t know and I think will help during the troubling times ahead that may come about as a result of recession, Depression, illegal immigration, gangs, natural or manmade disasters (hurricanes) etc. Anyone interested can go the the NRA website and look for information on “Refuse to Be a Victim” to see if it is being given in their community, or to find out how to put one on in their community. If you have wives, daughters or any female relatives or friends who you value, there’s a lot of information for the ladies, too. Topics are wide ranging and include identity theft, on-line safety, personal self-defense, securing your residence, etc.
I was pretty blown away by some of the information. Just as an example, I found out that parking lot abductions can be prevented by rolling underneath a parked car. The former cop who gave the seminar discussed how difficult it is to pull someone out from underneath a parked vehicle, I never knew that and would never have thought of it. And that was just one bit of information.
Anyway, that’s what I saw in my market this weekend. Emphasis on safety and security.
Florida — hurricane related? Several of my buddies live on the Intracoastal Waterway or on the ocean, in Brevard County. I visit them most weekends. This month I’ve seen an unusually large number of humongous boats heading north, well after (and in addition to) the normal end-of-March rich-Yankee retreat. Puzzled me until I was thinking about the Florida post’s comments today — maybe boat hurricane insurance has recently gone through the roof for boats moored in Florida. That could explain the seeming anomaly of so many more boats leaving “Dodge” than in years past.
My boat insurance has doubled in the past three years. I am 1,000 miles north of FL and 100 miles inland. I have never made a claim or had one against me. Go figure….
After last week’s 60 Minutes report, it looks like the effort to recapture some respect for Real Estate Agents by describing one in a million freak events as “normal” and therefore justifying their full 6% commission rate has begun…
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_5937446
An excerpt…
Selling real estate may seem like glamorous work, and sometimes it is. But hefty commissions for a few hours of effort are generally the stuff of dreams.
Far more common among agents, appraisers and inspectors are the kinds of rude surprises that could qualify as horror stories.
Denver’s real estate professionals may get more than their share for a number of reasons. Colorado’s high foreclosure rate has led many owners to abandon their homes.