Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For May 25, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Ted “the King Of Close” Truitt / a must see
!!!
Employment Numbers “Can´t Trust It” / Minyanville
The Great Wall Of Money / Economist On Chinese Stock Market
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
It is amazing to me just how far behind reality most analysts are. The unemployment data now considered suspect was first found to be way off back in the 70s when the underemployment data was first found to be a more accurate alternative. Politicians and snake oil salesmen have been trying to bury the somewhat depressing but more accurate numbers ever since in order to manipulate markets and elections. Puting a date of 1991 on serious criticism of these figures makes no sense and shows more than anything else a general lack of interest in the subject material. No wonder WSJ has fallen to being little more than a snack for Murdoch.
We can use “alternative docs” for full documentation????? (about 3/4 of the way down the page)
What the hell does that mean? Phony stuff?
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/337977773.html
http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/newssentinel/living/17272690.htm
what is next, real estate voo doo dolls?
What the hell does that mean? Phony stuff?
Perhaps a note from your Mom?
LOL.
Please lend Juan the money for a McMansion, he makes 120k per year.
*signed*
(everybody now)
Epstein’s Mother.
Welcome back…
Alternate docs….you mean I can get my crayon out and make anything I want up….
Beverly Hills here I come…..hehehe…
I see a new flock of sniveling “victims” who will claim they thought “alternative docs” were somehow legit.
Does my fifth grade report card count as an “alternative doc”–I got four A’s and two B’s?
Flagged for removal
Seems like we could coin a synonym for “flagged” with regard to a Craigslist link– “HBB’d.” Seems like 9 out of 10 referred to by posters disappear pretty quickly thereafter.
Well I think that we should cut and paste ‘em, since they often disappear before people get a chance to laugh at ‘em.
http://sarasota.craigslist.org/rfs/337351406.html
Also:
REAL ESTATE INVESTOR SEEKS TRAINEES
Reply to: ernie5662@yahoo.com
Date: 2007-05-20, 10:57PM EDT
I am a young real estate investor along with a group of other investor are seeking to expand our business in Sarasota. I am looking for a hard working person that is teachable and can follow directions to the tee. Must be self-motivator and have leardership abilities, not affraid to handle large amounts of money if this fits you. Let me know only 7 out of 75 make it as an investor the rest become agents and brokers. Do you have what it takes make the call let’s find out. (305)668-7577
Location: ALL SARASOTA
Compensation: $2,000 to $8,000
This is a part-time job.
This is an internship job
OK for recruiters to contact this job poster.
Phone calls about this job are ok.
Please do not contact job poster about other services, products or commercial interests.
It’s a perfect opportunity for Jeff Serin.
It looks like it was written by Serin with all the grammar mistakes.
Apparently they’re looking for a golfer — or a caddy.
Groan — sorry, Sold at peak — a pre-coffee moment.
I am looking for a hard working person that is teachable and can follow directions to the tee.
I think he’s looking for a caddy.
I need to catch up on sleep. I thought the subject line was “Real Estate Investor Seeks Trannies”. That’s a whole ‘nother blog.
Well i have to take a few hundred out of my IRA today just to survive the weekend. People are not buying my stuff on ebay..
and I still get 30-40+ unlimited income commission only scammers answering my resume EACH WEEK….and i demand they state the weekly pay in their response.
Damn Americans are so stupid and can’t read.
What do you sell?
NY, don’t despair. I have a BIL who just got a new job a few weeks ago, after being out of work for months. I had two other friends that also were out of work for extended periods. You just have to keep trying. But definitely keep your outlook positive because your confidence level is what sells people, not your actual skills. Take care.
You have to cut through a lot of crap at the beginning of this article to get to the real meat…
——————————————————————————-
Glimmers of optimism shine through mixed housing news
Home foreclosures ‘manageable,’ repayments possible, experts say
By Roger Showley
STAFF WRITER
May 25, 2007
(This is where the crap is cut out…)
DataQuick Information Systems expects to report today that the six-county Southern California region saw defaults rise nearly 159 percent last month to more than 9,200, compared with 3,562 in April 2006, and that foreclosures skyrocketed from 311 to more than 2,800 over the same period. San Diego’s defaults rose from 554 to 1,346, and foreclosures increased from 85 to 525, April to April.
But San Diego was painted as an area less vulnerable to any further major downturns, contingent on the health of the general economy.
There ya’ go! IT’S DIFFERENT HERE. Reasons include relatively few unsold, newly built homes and new projects; steady if not improving job growth; and an earlier end to the housing boom than other markets where sales and prices are now in decline.
The most recent sales figures for San Diego showed a 13.5 percent year-over-year drop in April, compared with more than 30 percent year-over-year declines reported by DataQuick last fall. Wow — a mere 13.5 percent YOY drop. The market has clearly bottomed out.
Prices, which had peaked at $517,500 in November 2005 and lately dropped to as low as $472,000 in January, have recovered somewhat to stand at a median $490,000. But they remain 10 percent or more below where they stood a year ago in many neighborhoods.
One worrisome sign – a rise in resale inventories – may represent good news for buyers, Dennehy said. Many sellers have to sell and will lower prices to do so, when a year ago, many were simply testing the market to see if they could get a high price and would not negotiate if someone offered to pay much less.
“That probably will keep pushing prices down this year and next,” he said.
Seeking to contain the gloom that shows up in builder surveys, Sullivan assured his audience of about 100 builders, mortgage bankers and other development-industry professionals. “You’ll still be around in five years.”
Sounds a bit like Sullivan is whistling through the graveyard, if not addressing potential future residents.
I have some advice for Sullivan’s clientele:
“Abandon hope all ye who enter here.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070525/news_1b25housing.html
“Reasons include relatively few unsold, newly built homes and new projects;…”
I call BS on this statement. The paper for which Showley writes has recently devoted an increasing share of its news space to real estate advertising. In fact, the Sunday paper, which constitutes maybe 75% of the entire weekly output of the SD Union Tribune by weight, currently devotes on the order of 50%+ of its print space to real estate advertising, including a full two-page spread in the Home section dedicated to advertising 130 “New Home Communities” chock-full of new homes in the $500K+ price range facing a severe buyer shortage. The Home section is supposedly devoted to news stories about housing, but the news is increasingly crowded out by desperation advertisement.
San Diego, CA
May 30, 2006 11,964 Units: $640,000 Median Price
May 24, 2007 13,256 Units: $580,000 Median Price
San Diego comes in with 11% more inventory than Memorial Day last year and a 9% drop in median price
Full set if year over year comparisons from Hardtack (click my name to see the site) on the weekend threads.
To which median price are you referring? (I am guessing recent SFR sale price, but it is not clear from your post).
A $60,000 drop in one year is close to enough to wipe out 1-year’s worth of earnings for the median-income SD household. Owning a home right at the moment can be bad for household net worth.
Yes, sorry - forgot to add that these are single family homes. I have data for condos and multi-family too.
1967: Summer of Love (sex, drugs and rock & roll)
2007: Summer of Shove (foreclosure)
Is there anything that the boomers haven’t just lucked into?
Summer of Love = Sex, drugs, music. Must have been fun doing whatever “feels good” without the threat of Diseases (aids), Hard Drugs (crack, meth), and Guns (Gangs that will kill you for a dollar)
Summer of Shove = What other generation has just been given money like the boomers? Yet they still manage to squander whatever they have. The next thing they’ll complain about is Soc Security not paying enough.
As a Gen X all I can say is payback is going to be a bitch for all those old kooks that feel they’re entitled to everything under the sun. Like I used to say to my parents when they pissed me off…
Be nice to your kids because they’re the ones that are going to pick your rest home.
Generation Hexed
Your not picking my rest home you little twerp….Its called a trust with a trustee…
You can’t take it with you and if you try you’ll just end up giving it all back to the state.
Like I used to say to my parents when they pissed me off…Be nice to your kids because they’re the ones that are going to pick your rest home ??
I may not be able to take it with me, but, if you were my kid, I would give to some homeless people before you got a dime…..
With that much venom, Gen-X will die out before Gen-Boom.
Not likely. But I appreciate your concern.
Shadash wrote…
“1. The people that benefited most from the house price run up were boomers.
2. The people that refi’d and used the equity to buy second homes were boomers.”
Somewhere in all this mess, I saw a post that referred to lottery-ticket home sellers. Just though I’d throw in that I was one in 2005. Sold my house in NorCal for a tidy $300k profit after seven years. I’m also an X-er. Lots of my neighbors sold their houses during that time, almost all of them also X-ers. It was the Boomers who were staying put.
Good to know that you profited from a speculative bubble. When you’re kids ask what ruined America make sure to inform them that it was you.
What I did was to ensure that my kids’ educations would be fully-funded, so they wouldn’t be saddled with crippling debt when they graduate. I also ensured a comfortable retirement for my spouse and I because social security will not be there for us. I’m frugal and disciplined, generous with my time and money, and hardly the selfish and lavish spendthrift that you’d like to think I am. But, if you’d like to continue believing I am to make yourself feel better, feel free.
I too sold at the top of the market, guilt-free~
The future’s uncertain and the end is always near…
My point was that it’s not necessarily true that Boomers got all the benefits from the current housing mess. Gen Xers did, too. And, shadash, I’m hardly to blame for ruining America. We bought a house well within our means without any thought to what might happen in the market. We liked the neighborhood, the house met our needs, and the schools were good. We walked away with all that profit precisely because we didn’t use the house as an ATM. We weren’t speculators, just darn lucky. And, like aladinsane, I’m guilt-free about it. We had no shortage of offers, and, on paper, the people who bought our house looked to be capable of handling the payment. If that’s turned not to be the case, it’s between them and the bank.
Testify, nova_renter. I happened onto a boomer-bashing thread over at Patrick.net one day and thought I had wandered into a Neo-Nazi euthanasia support group meeting by mistake. I like HARM and his posts here on the HBB, but the viciousness of some of the threads is a little much.
The perception of boomers and how they lived back in the day is vastly different from the reality, which was that most of us were trying to get through school, working part time and then trying to find full time jobs. For many, their concession to the “Summer of Love” was wearing a fringed leather vest and drinking the occasional bottle of Boone’s Farm Apple Wine (Yech and Blech!). Maybe some tickets to a rock concert once in a while. Other than that, we had to work to eat, too.
Gen-X griping is just part and parcel of the victim, who-moved-my-cheese mentality that seems to be popular lately. Not all are that way, but I seem to be able to communicate better with Gen Y than X. Must have something to do with the twin bogus military actions of Vietnam and Iraq that defined the times. Now there’s a bullet that X dodged, but nobody’s getting venomous with X about that, are they?
The houseing bubble was caused by speculative buying. Try and rationalize it however you want but…
1. The people that benefited most from the house price run up were boomers.
2. The people that refi’d and used the equity to buy second homes were boomers.
3. The government that allowed the housing bubble to occur was controlled by boomers.
Regarding military service as a gen X I’ve seen Iraq part one and two. Not that I’m going compare death to death but it IS something we’ve had to deal with.
who-moved-my-cheese mentality ??
Spot On……….
The houseing bubble was caused by speculative buying. Try and rationalize it however you want but…
Please.
This boomer bashing is like the Two-Minute Hate in Orwell’s ‘1984′.
Blame boomers for whatever you want, but it’s the Gen-X idiots who are the BUYERS.
I am in my mid 30’s, not a boomer, and don’t see the point in blaming boomers for being the major factor in the bubble.
Boomers did cause most of the problems, I agree. However, the spoiled Gen Xr’s, of which I guess technically I am one of (aged 40), are rude and think they are entitled to everything without doing much work. Although this can be attributed to their idiot boomer parents babying them for the first 25 years of their lives. Both groups, Boomers and Xr’s have issues as the following examples portray:
dont hold doors open
drive like *sses
dont say thank you, when I hold the door for them (I guess that’s what black guys are supposed to do)
at wanna-be restaurants like PF Chang’s - dont get up and offer seat to elderly or females
dont take hats off in restaurants or church/temple/mosque
It may sound silly to some, but the lack of manners and consideration currently displayed in our society is similar to the “screw everyone so I can make money” attitude displayed by the r.e. whores, loan officers and builders of which this blog is about. Our country could use some standards right about now…
Wow, with all the false spin and sweeping generalities, you could have a great career writing for the REIC. I don’t know how long you’ve been reading this blog, or even IF you’ve been reading it, but from all the reporting Ben’s been doing, the idiots who participated in the bubble cut across all generations. It has been equal opportunity for sure. Unless, of course, boomers have discovered a way to suddenly become young marrieds with children on the way.
As for the government being controlled by boomers, I guess you don’t know much about our current government. Most government staffers who write legislation that their (sometimes) boomer bosses pass are GenX and by the way, you will find no finer examples of GenX than Alberto Gonzales’s little band of merry legal cutthroats with no prosecutorial experience. Yessir, remind me what generation Monica Goodling and Kyle Sampson come from. And if you’ve bothered calling any of your local or Federal representatives lately to question a piece of legislation, you just might find yourself talking to an X-er who doesn’t even know what legislation you’re talking about.
It was folks from the boomer generation who were willing to stand up and get shot to end Vietnam and some did, like at Kent State. And some brave Yers have put out the movie Loose Change, questioning the events around 9/11 and are the major push to end this current debacle, risking imprisonment, while many (not all) Xers are looking to find who to blame for their cheese being moved. Try a mirror.
That said, I find the intergenerational bashing to be pretty much a waste of time, and I know some fine Xers, just as I know some fine boomers and Yers. And I also kow idiots from all generations. But I couldn’t allow such mis-guided sweeping generalities to pass, not after all the reporting I’ve read on this blog.
My post was for shadash, not you, Chris. I agree with you that manners and consideration are important and sadly lacking. But the lack of those did not begin with boomers. My mother used to commute to NYC from the burbs back in the day. She worked through her last pregnancy and used to come home with tales of having to stand in crowded railroad cars, hanging onto the overhead strap, while the Wall Street and Madison Avenue guys hid behind their WSJ or Ad Age, so as not to stand up and offer a seat to an obviously pregnant woman.
Gen X & Y bought first homes, boomers traded up to McMansions.
More of Gen Y are the children of boomers than Gen X
Boomers seem to me more into traditional materialism. It could just be a function of age though rather than self absorption.
Hehehe not in my neighborhood.
We’ve been looking for a new rental so I put an ad in CL. So far I’ve had 3 people contact me in 4 weeks about a rental here because the boomer-aged owner died.
This is happening in super liberal, crunchy granola, hyper healthy and educated Davis. Ca.
“because the boomer-aged owner died.”
gwynster, love your posts. Cuts through all the BS. Yep, I’ve had a feeling that the Greatest Generation is sort of an anomaly in terms of longevity. After having one parent suffer through years of non-compos-mentis, living long without mental faculties in good shape is a kind of hell I don’t ever want to experience. And I don’t think I will. Physically, boomers are probably less healthy than their parents and I have a feeling most will oblige the Xers and move on before becoming the burden that Xers think they are going to become.
Thanks Pal,
That said, I suppose I’m technically a boomer since I’m at the farthest end of the range. But I have to admit I empathize with the plight of the Xers. Graduating from HS to enter the workforce in the middle of a recession was tough. College was out even though I had pushed for great grades so I could be ready for college paid for by Vet’s benefits. Reagan axes my college program just before I’m eligible. I wanted to be a doctor (OB/GYN) and had sterling grades.
You know, the more I think about this more I think it’s really a classist issue but people drape it in generational labels to make it more palatable.
Count me out. I turn 48 Monday. I don’t own a house and have low debt. My net worth is over $800,000 and 32% of that in government securities. And no, I never took drugs, never smoked marijuana. I was 8 years old in the summer of love. Don’t pigeonhole me with the others. Here in my office there are guys in their late 20s driving Lexus cars and with houses they bought (with working wives) for over $400,000. This, in the Phoenix area. So who is wiser?
You are much wiser mr bill.It sounds like you are very successful in your finances.Congrats on being able to save that kind of money.Most of the people I see are in the whole 300-400k.
And Happy Birthday Bill, well done on getting to a good place financially. Wisedom knows no age.
Thank you!
“Wisedom knows no age.”
Judging from my kids, it takes a hike during the teenage years…
CNBC had some “think tank” fellow on this morning saying that men in their thirties for the first time have an average lower earing potential than their fathers did. We might all end up working until the day we die, so hope you like your job. I “retired” for 6 months in my thirties, boring as hell as there was no one around to have fun with.
At 45 we’re in the black and I don’t even work. Only made possible by leaving bubbleland (and giving up a lot of material stuff).
I’ll be arranging for my own rest home and probably housing for my children who despite very strong grades will probably be picking fruit after the good jobs are shipped overseas. Sometimes I wonder if that’s where we all should go. They’ll be the new “immigrant workers”.
The brain drain in our country is strictly a one way road now…
All heading out to greener pastures, somewhere else in the world.
Very true. I’m hearing more and more people discuss leaving the U.S.
It’s a nice country, but everything that used to make it great is slipping away.
the brain industry: Exports up, production down.
How hard is it to get all the work visas, etc to go work in Europe or Australia for a couple years? Sounds appetizing.
How hard is it to get all the work visas, etc to go work in Europe or Australia for a couple years?
I would be interested if someone may know the answer to that….
“I’m hearing more and more people discuss leaving the U.S.
It’s a nice country, but everything that used to make it great is slipping away.”
Why is it that everybody wants to run away rather than stand and fight for what they want? Beautiful neighborhoods became blighted because people didn’t like the people moving in so they moved further out. I say make the bums and illegals move. Make all those on welfare leave the state of CA and find a home elsewhere. Get rid of lilly-livered politicians and school administrators, fight to hold people accountable for their actions, etc. I’ve lived for three years in the far east and enjoyed it but I didn’t go there because I was running away and I’m not going to leave CA for the same reason. I could leave CA for Santa Fe because I love the scenery, southwestern culture and housing styles.
I work in Europe at least 6 months out of the year. I have even worked in Australia. Best way to get a work permit is have the job before you arrive. The company you work for (that has a local base) will get the permit for you.
Why is it that everybody wants to run away rather than stand and fight for what they want?
Because they outlawed discrimation and racism.
Sometimes I wonder if that’s where we all should go. They’ll be the new “immigrant workers”.
Let me tell you, other countries guard their borders and protect their job markets far more jealously than we do.
Without a sponsorship of some sort it is next to impossible to immigrate to another country.
True, but if you have substantial financial resources, you can often negotiate.
You can also go for legal residency, rather than trying for citizenship elsewhere…but you gotta bring a boatload of cash or have particular skills.
I’ve recently returned to Canada after six years in the US — most sectors of the Canadian economy are booming. US professionals can get a temporary (NAFTA) work visa at the border (given they have a Canadian job offer).
“Why is it that everybody wants to run away rather than stand and fight for what they want?”
Because running away *is* the American way. We didn’t like how things were in Europe. Did we hang around to fix things? No! We ran to the New World. When we didn’t like how the colonies were being run, we ran to the frontier. When the West got settled and became states, those who didn’t like it ran to Alaska.
Heck, when we don’t like our spouses, we run out/around on them. When our public schools began to show signs of stress, we ran our kids right out of them into private schools. When dealing with the neighbors’ eccentricities became too aggravating, we ran into HOA-run neighborhoods. Anything to avoid having to fix problems.
Running away from our messes and leaving them for other people to deal with is the American Way.
I hope my question in which Salinasron responded was not taken out of context…I am not running anywhere….Just thought spending two years in another country sounded pretty cool at least for me at this stage in my life…
Yay Bill! We share a birthday!
Happy Birthday to Us on Memorial Day Monday!
First of all, Boomers is not a generation. If you go by the media’s current practice of constantly extending the end date of the boomer category, a person born in 1945 is a boomer, and so is their child born in 1965. That is two generations.
Secondly, I talked to some college kids. They are really annoyed by the Generation Xers. It seems the Gen Xers are the last of the ones to enter the work market and be guaranteed social security. The college kids are not looking forward to supporting the Generation X elders, who they look upon as spoiled brat slackers, showered with all manner of material wealth by their parents.
“It seems the Gen Xers are the last of the ones to enter the work market and be guaranteed social security. The college kids are not looking forward to supporting the Generation X elders, who they look upon as spoiled brat slackers, showered with all manner of material wealth by their parents.”
Are you kidding me? I’m 38, squarely in the midst of Gen X, and I’m not counting on anything from Social Security, and that’s fine with me. My spouse save about 30% of our income in one form or another (i.e., 401k, ESOP, IRA, & 529). Obviously, he and I don’t fit your nasty characterization.
I’m not interested in trashing Boomers or Gen Y, but I do feel the need to defend my generation. I don’t understand why all of you feel the need to make sweeping generalizations.
You and me both Redhead…. I’m born in ‘45….work primarily with Xers and Ys….and enjoy both. Guarantee I’ve not witnessed this phenomenal largesse purportedly lavished on my, and the just younger, generations. If I have it, I worked for it. Odd concept, but there it is.
My greatest frustration ref. the SS arguments is Regan’s success in dramatically increasing SS deductions (due to the size of the boomer generation), then spending the lot, claiming pay/go.
Pay/go it’s been: We pay, and it goes…. for bridges to nowhere, or whatever ludicrous expenditure our congress creatures decide.
My personal take on any blame-game is it’s a colossal waste of time, and reeks of the aura of victimhood, a mindset which makes me shudder.
For those here, and of course Ben, who graciously share their expertise with those of us with less, and those who labor to find information which benefits us all, to those whose quick and analytical minds parse the data, to those who monitor the data….. I thank you.
Still, I have to admire the (bought and paid for) media. They’ve managed to sow inter-generational strife (divide and conquer) which deflects attention from the true culprits.
Oops!…hit the button accidentally…
My point (I actually had one, but lost it) is less energy spent in self-pity and more spent in constructive action will determine our personal/collective experience of the next decade.
Generations are not media creations, but actual phenomena that can be studied and quantified. Some generations are rather brief like the Silent Generation who were sandwiched between the Greatest Generation and the Boomers and others are quite large like the Boomers. Social factors determine what groups go with each other, and there are always many exceptions. What you are saying sounds like a claim that kids born after widespread use of the pill grew up the same and in the same world as pre-pill kids and that is flat out false for all kinds of obvious macroeconomic reasons if you actually go out and look.
Beyond that there are very many subtle differences. Most of my friends in college were one or two years ahead of me. Near to graduation time companies sent representatives and hired them starting with the best, but eventually presenting good opportunities to all. By the time I graduated there were only a few companies coming and they were for the most part not hiring as they would freely explain. Which experience represents Gen-X? That probably depends more on agenda than facts.
>>social factors determine what groups go with each other, and there are always many exceptions.
Those who make the classifications get to determine which criteria to use to identify groups into classifications they have created.
Thus, the ‘baby boomer’ years were originally 1945-48, reflecting the returning GI’s and a return to production. This was a simple concept easily measurable statistically.
But then the end years kept getting extended by the media, well into the 1960s. Thus the children of boomers were also boomers. This is two generations, not one.
Incidentally, “Generation X” and any other named generation is also a media creation. Humans of course don’t fit any such labels.
Except for the Pepsi Generation.
It seems the Gen Xers are the last of the ones to enter the work market and be guaranteed social security.
HUH? I’m technically a late boomer (’63), and I doubt it’ll be around when I get to my 60’s. Heck, I doubt it’ll be around another decade.
Not to mention, boomers and their buddies were getting drafted left and right and sent to Vietnam. Their parents went to WWII and Korea.
Gen-Xers fearing the draft? Not so much. A lot of guilt coming out now, so unfortunately spoiled were they.
Testify, ronin! Xers can’t even get it up for a good protest. I guess us creaky boomers are going to have to shift our old bones off the sofa and take to the streets once again. A few Yers will come with us, to hold us up or push the wheelchairs or guide the walkers. Xers can watch.
We boomers need to do something for the Yers, they’ve really been taking it on the chin, confused and uncomplaining. We owe them better schools, a better environment, a better country and a better world. Breaks my heart they can’t even go to school without wondering if they’ll get stuck with shiv or mowed down in class.
LOL
No Gen Xer ever voted for Reagan.
Wow. So, sending your kids off to war is a good thing? I, for one, will be very happy if my children are spared the horrors of war. I’m a military brat, married to a military brat, and neither set of our parents wanted to see their kids go through the same things they did. Please don’t romanticize the character-building potential of war.
Spolied because we didn’t have to fear a draft….OK. Regail me with stories of walking to school with no shoes…up hill…BOTH WAYS!
Casual drugs & sex, rampant spread of STD’s & a live for today, tomorrow be damned attitude. Not to mention college professors with long gray hair in a pony tail. All the things we owe to the boomers. In your “efforts” to make the country a better place you sent it through the guard rail. Thanks guys!
Wow! Shadash, what’s with the bitterness? Don’t catagorize all boomers as the same.
I’m 53, old enough to remember the summer of love, but too young to actually have done anything about it. Old enough to remember sweating thru the draft lottery for Vietnam and witnessing one of my friends never coming back from that debacle. I do not own a home, have NO debt, have a net worth of over $400,000 and I live in a relatively small suburb of Seattle. The only thing my parents ever gave me was some financial help while attending college to earn my baccalaureate degree.
I’m pretty much the same. Except I can’t buy a house without going into major debt. I’ve had friends go to Iraq and fortunately all have come back. What pissed me off is that because of the out of control houseing market I don’t have the same opportunity to buy a place to live that you did. (Adjusted for inflation) I work 2 high paying jobs and my wife also works a high paying job. But, we have to compete when buying a house with idiots that don’t have near the cash on hand or earning power that we do. People that have no intention of actually living there.
If you picked up that I’m pissed your’re right. I work my ass of week in and week out and I save over 50% of what I make and so does my wife. When I see all the lottery ticket home owners trying to charge 100-200k over the price they purchased for last year it makes me sick.
Shadash,
You are right, greedy speculators and easy credit pretty much screwed up the real estate market for awhile. Awareness of this fact is what draws readers to this blog. You do know that a market correction is occurring in most places nationally, right? In Seattle, real estate is still actually appreciating! Apparently Seattle speculators haven’t heard that the party is over. It’s a bit depressing.
Situations beyond my control will make me a first-time home buyer pretty late in life. I’m like you in that I will not pay current asking prices. I will wait and I will continue to save like what you are doing. The real estate market WILL return to normalcy and then you will have your chance to own a home without carrying an insane debt.
It’s late, but in case you read this, Shadash…
My husband and I are also Gen-Xers (late 30s). Although we used to own a home, we have been renting for three years now.
Trust me, the whole “ownership” thing is overrated — an effect of the bubble.
Aside from that, I’ve known just as many Gen-Xers who benefitted from the bubble as I’ve known Boomers. I’ve also seen many more Gen-Xers who were the **cause** of the bubble (along with Monopoly money lenders).
Don’t confuse generational warfare (ridiculous waste of time — all people will do what’s perceived to be best for themselves, that’s human nature) with bubbles and housing cycles.
We will get our chance to buy again (that means you, too!), but we will have to be patient.
In the meantime, enjoy your friends and family — maybe step away from the bubble blogs for awhile to regain perspective. Focusing on this, like so many of us have been doing, makes the wait much more agonizing.
Best to you!
Summer of Love = Sex, drugs, music. Must have been fun doing whatever “feels good” without the threat of Diseases (aids),
What? Herpes and warts were very much alive before AIDS.
We knew the people who were sleeping with lowlifes because they were the ones who got warts. (Imagine my surprise about ten years ago when my friend’s daughter, a little white suburban girl, came home with a case. My how times have changed.)
…Hard Drugs (crack, meth), and Guns (Gangs that will kill you for a dollar)
Again, a WTF moment. Instead of smoking crack those who were so inclined freebased. Meth…are you kidding me? I grew up next door to the first meth capital of the USA, the town was run by the PMC. (Pagan Motorcycle Club). We called it crank. And guns…every self-respecting South Philly boy carried a baseball bat - at least - in his vehicle. The truly well fitted-out also had a firearm, unregistered of course. These were caucasian boys. Well, kinda caucasian, anyway.
OK that’s the Boomer Vice Report for May 2007.
p.s.
it doesn’t bother me at all about your hate for boomers, just get the sex, drugs, and weaponry facts straight, k?
You’re right shadash. The late 60s and early 70’s were a blast…too bad you missed it. First trip to Europe at 17 for around 600 bucks and an Icelandair ticket for 199. 7 months including Turkey and North Africa…everybody was hitchhiking and the music was everywhere.
I don’t mind bitching from gen Xers since they did miss the big party. They’re entitled to be bitter.
I’ll take Alice in Chains or Rage Against The Machine over the Monkeys any day.
oh pulleeze,
Joplin, hendrix, aretha, marvin gaye, motown, the stones(then and again).
What a time to be alive…it will never happen again.
please…
take Alice in Chains and Rage Against the Machine.
The only artist to come out of that crappy decade was Trent Reznor (ok, maybe Beck)
From the Boston Globe:
“noting recent data shows the rate of price declines slowing”
Recent Data. I love that stuff. It’s like science.
One more about Mass:
http://www.lowellsun.com/breakingnews/ci_5977414
I hope that Homeowner_MA is still reading this blog. We last hear his cheery assessment of the Massachusetts housing market well more than a year ago, as I recall. Hey, Homeowner! Groveling in repentance is cathartic! Sure, you were wrong. OK, to be more direct, you were 180 degrees off the mark. But that doesn’t make you a bad guy, just poor. Cheers.
BeaConst?
LV_Landlord?
Yoo-hoo…
and don’t forget BeaconSt.
Or celebfan1000, another one from the Bay State.
It is really important to note that those peak to trough decline estimates do not include any realistic inflation data. That is probably best for making the point, but raises the issue that the drop is happening faster than many predicted. During the downturn 88-95 downturn it was common to see price drops of 1-2% per year and it was the accumulation of those plus inflation that added up to around 30% off. If this time around includes drops of 10% or more per year along with inflation running hotter than the Fed would prefer then we are in for some interesting times.
That’s a good point. THs in my development are down 4% YOY. Next year it will be another 4%, at least. (as opposed to the smaller decreases during the last downturn).
ok, I am obviously not getting any work done today, so when do the housing numbers come out?
10:00 am EST is what is scheduled
Annnnnd they’re out!
U.S. April existing home sales down 2.6% to 4 yr low
U.S. April existing home sales drop larger than expected
Bloomberg news service seems to be picking up the slack in the REIC cheerleading business now that Lereah has announced the end of his tenure as REIC cheerleader-in-chief. Here is their report from 10 hours ago. In retrospect, maybe they should have waited for today’s news release that existing home sales have dropped (again) to a four-year low before conjecturing about what might have happened?
“Existing-Home Sales in U.S. Were Probably Unchanged Last Month
By Shobhana Chandra
May 25 (Bloomberg) — Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. were probably unchanged last month after posting the biggest drop in 18 years, a sign the housing market may have touched bottom, economists said before an industry report today.
The National Association of Realtors may say existing homes were sold at a 6.12 million annual rate in April, according to the median forecast of 70 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Sales dropped 8.4 percent in March, the most since January 1989.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aT7nSw83lD5U&refer=us
Everybody knows that sales don’t pick up until after Superbowl.
No wait… spring,.. no… Memorial Day! That’s it. Sales don’t pick up until Memorial Day. Just wait for the Memorial Day bounce.
Well, inventory here is rising quickly and prices are dropping, so I doubt we’ll be seeing a bounce any time soon. Oh, wait, there’s all that pent up demand, though.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Existing home sales fell 2.6% in April to 5.99 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, the slowest sales pace in four years, the National Association of Realtors said. The fall in April sales was larger than expected. Economists had forecast that sales would dip a slight 0.2% to 6.11 million units. On a year-on-year basis, existing home sales were down 10.7%. The median national sales price was down 0.8% year on year to $220,900 in April. Inventories of unsold homes rose 10.4% to 4.20 million, a 8.4 month supply, the highest in 15 years
So those of us who said that the new home sales were cannibalizing used homes sales were spot on.
I love seeing this number negative MOM, March - April. It’s going to get much worse from here as despondency sets in, and the builders continue to undercut flippers, and serial refinanceers.
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell 2.6% in April to 5.99 Mln Rate
By Shobhana Chandra
May 25 (Bloomberg) — Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell unexpectedly in April to the lowest level in almost four years, dimming prospects for a quick recovery in housing.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agxKazDf_Z7U&refer=home
Did you see the rise in inventory? 8.4 months? Wow. Note the wisdom of the “Realtor”. Have a long way to go
The drop in sales was accompanied by a big jump in the number of unsold homes left on the market. They climbed to a record total of 4.2 million. It would take 8.4 months to exhaust that supply of homes at the April sales pace.
Analysts are concerneed that the glut of unsold homes will further depress prices in coming months.
But Lawrence Yun, senior economist for the Realtors, said that the small year-over-year price decline of less than 1 percent was still modest compared to the 50 percent rise in home prices that occurred during the five boom years that ended last year.
Link: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070525/economy.html?.v=9
It would take 8.4 months to exhaust that supply of homes at the April sales pace.
And April is supposed to be a peak month for home sales. So as sales cool even more from seasonal effects, the months of inventory will go up even if actual inventories stay unchanged.
This clown, Lawrence Yun, predicted a zero chance of a housing price decline in 2005. Why would anyone quote him in an article? Don’t people take any pride in their work. All it takes is a quick search on google to see what a joker he is.
” The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. That’s not the 20 to 25% rate we’ve seen in the past, but it’s still very respectful.”
http://www.nvar.com/newsdetail.lasso?articleno=nvarn100608
Wow!
Great catch.
http://www.larouchepub.com/pr/2007/070522warn_bernanke.html
Bernanke Warned: Housing Collapse Much Worse than You Say.
OT: Moving to Atlanta
I just got a job promotion this week and will be moving to Atlanta on May 29th. I work for a large financial institution. I am moving to the investment banking side of the company and I’ll be in the equity research department. I am glad to finally be leaving the retail brokerage side.
Anyway, I got an aprtment in the Vinings area. For those who live in the ATL, how bubbly is the market? From what I could gather, the condo/townhome market is in trouble. I am moving from West Palm Beach so I have seen firsthand how out of control things have gotten. Any information is appreciated. Thank you and have a fun and safe Memorial Day weekend.
Not in Atl myself, but have several friends there. & they’re complaining about the idea of a bubble, since 2 are trying to sell, but not getting anywhere near asking. That’s all I know about Atl
look at housing tracker.net for the ATL. That should tell you all you need to know. The inventory levels there are skyrocketing. Should be some great deals if you work it. Good Luck!
Thanks Diana and Smithers. I am going to rent for 2-3 years and stockpile some more $$$$ and then start to look. I am not worried about prices going up,that’s for sure. I hope to get a 2/2 condo Buckhead since that’s where my office is located.
Congratulations on the new job!
My mom got out just in time. 09/2006. $650k for a 4/3 in Dunwoody, inside the perimeter. So that tells me that ATL didn’t see the same huge price spikes as other cities. Up 100% in 10 years, but that is nothing compared to the west coast and northeast.
But if you talk about a condo in Buckhead… there’s a premium you’re going to pay. Plus you’re gonna need a vest.
“I just got a job promotion this week”
Congratulations!
So my offer at $300K (listed $437K) in West Denver metro suburb was deemed “insulting”. Been thru 6 listing agents, on the market for almost 3 years. Told the agent your asking price is insulting, but good luck. I’ll be back when seller changes agents again. Tired of renting/moving with an expanding family, but falling knife catching isn’t fun either, I guess.
What is the address for that property or MLS listing? I will offer them 250 and maybe they will see the light in a 300 offer.
Way to hang in there DLB! They can either capitulate or you can buy something nicer from the Bank, their choice. Keep throwing the “lowballs”!
Much appreciated all. I would bombard the listing agent with emails containing all the truth learned here at HBB. However, she is “old-school” and doesn’t use email. Seriously, that is what she said.
I would never waste my time trying to educate/convert a realtor. When they’re hungry enough, they’ll see the light.
why not contact the owner direct?
“So my offer at $300K (listed $437K)…”
nice
I thought about contacting the owner. Typical listing contract is what , 90 days? I have time.
“Told the agent your asking price is insulting”
THey need to hear this more often…
Doing the same thing in south Denver Metro burb, although not quite that low. I think the most interesting thing is looking at the comps and seeing that the actual selling price per square foot is about $15-$20 below what most sellers are asking. Then the seller’s agent argues with me that their house is worth more because it has a tile backsplash in the kitchen and stainless appliances. Good luck with that line. I simply wish them well and tell them I’ll see them at the bottom.
The owner is considering this place a split level. I know a basement when I see one. Not too many split levels I know of need 3 foot window wells. Take the 1400 sqr. foot basement out of the price, and my offer is right in line with an acceptable lowered offer. Thus the reason it has been on the market for 3 f***ing years! People arae unbelievable. Keep after it, redhead………
Is the basement finished? I’ve seen this game played both ways. A house my agent brought me as a comp had a sq. ft. price of $159. I had viewed the house and knew that it had a finished, but unpermitted basement. Because the public record did not reflect the actual size of the house, (the basement was about 670 sq. ft.), the price per sq. ft. was unbelievably inflated. Real price per sq. ft., accounting for the renovated space? About $117. Caught ya!
Are you looking in the highlands area?
We live there now and are trying to find a house for my Mother-in-law to buy. I’ve tried to talk her out of buying right now, but she doesn’t want to rent again.
Anyway, we made an offer on a house near us for a mere 15% below wishing price and they turned it down. It is still a hot market in this part of town but the overall Denver market is slower. I was hoping they would see the light.
The funny (truly sad) part about this story is that the people bought the house 13 years ago for $50k and now they want $225k. “Want” isn’t exactly correct. They “need” that much to pay off the 2nd. What are people smoking these days??? Can you imagine buying a house for $50k and then running the debt up to $225? I can’t.
Highlands? Or Highlands Ranch?
I’ve been tracking 80109 (Castle Rock, CO) between $225-$275. Inventory is up to 42 from a low of 27 only three weeks ago. Looks like the new contenders are price drops, not new listings.
Also, on Thursdays our local public notices section lists all the houses up for auction in Douglas County. It’s now running 12 pages long or about 165 houses. Most of the “owners” are defaulting on about $300k, but occasionally there’s a much larger loan represented. The lenders tend to be Deutsche Bank and GMAC, with a few others thrown in for good measure.
It won’t be too much longer before realtors who turned up their noses at “insulting” offers are stalking their former insulters, pleading with them to resubmit the offer. I want them to be well and truly “insulted” for many months, until they realize that’s as good as it’s going to get [and the panic sets in]. Then I’ll start my very leisurely home search.
Read this one:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aT7nSw83lD5U&refer=us
then this one:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agxKazDf_Z7U&refer=home
Doh!!
How can the “experts” be SOOOOOOO cluelsee?
A 10% cut in median price for new homes, and that is somehow good for the resell market? Wha?
Going into this morning’s exisitng closing, they were expecting good numbers. WHAT? We’ve been tracking falling sells and rising inventory. The results come out and they are somehow shocked that sells are down, median price down, and inventory WAY up.
How can they be SOOOOO clueless?
ARGH!!!! The flapping heads keep saying the yesterday’s 11% monthly drop in median price is GOOD for the housing market! Well, they are saying the jump in sells is good. Sorry, but the new house data is KILLING the resell market, and long-term, the new home market is driving by the resells.
Yesterday’s and today’s data are DISASTER for the market, NOT good news!
Important question: Was the 11% monthly dip reported yesterday actually biased downwards by the ongoing use of incentives to mask the actual price decline in new home sale prices? My guess is yes — that is, builders continue the practice of tricking the buyer into financing the value of new cars, fancy vacations and cash back at closing as part of the home sale price (and loan proceeds).
Why this is not patently illegal is beyond my comprehension. Maybe banking regulators think it is reasonable to consider cash back at closing as part of the structure on which the loan is written?
You just can’t bellyfeel the blackwhite that the numbers are doubleplus gooder.
Be careful, or it’s the joycamp for you.
You’re one of my droogs!
Here is what I like: Honest reporting of the facts on the ground. The REIC can take their sugar coating and shove it.
———————————————————————————
Home Prices Fall for 9th Straight Month
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
Friday, May 25, 2007
(05-25) 07:29 PDT WASHINGTON, (AP) –
Sales of existing homes fell by a larger-than-expected amount in April while the median price of a home sold during the month fell for a ninth straight month as the troubles in the subprime mortgage market acted as a further drag on housing.
The National Association of Realtors reported Friday that sales of existing homes fell by 2.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million units. That was the slowest sales pace since June 2003.
The median price of a home fell to $220,900, an 0.8 percent fall from the midpoint selling price a year ago. It marked the ninth straight decline in the median price.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2007/05/25/financial/f070642D21.DTL
Maybe my eagle eyes are deceiving me, but where are the YOY April sales declines for resale homes??
Bankrate.com
“Are McMansions a McThing of the past?
The trouble with hugeness
There are numerous reasons why McMansions are in decline:
McMaintenance…..
McFinancing…..
McTaxes……
McInvestment……
McResale……”
http://tinyurl.com/2ko3nq
“Are McMansions a McThing of the past?”
The McTrouble is that they are still McBuilding lots of McMansions right into a bust which features a glut of McMansions priced over $500K with a dearth of qualified buyers in a deflationary environment. Given the glut and the building that continues apace, it looks like McMansions will be here to stay for some time.
However, I would submit that demand for McMansions is a thing of the past, unless the Fed can figure out how to restart high rates of home price inflation in the near future.
However, I would submit that demand for McMansions is a thing of
the past…
They’ll fill them up with McMexicans
Great, here’s what will McHappen…
McMansion owners will decide to downgrade which will cut into the potential market of homes for the smaller buyer (like myself). They run the prices up by agreeing to pay obscene amounts for their big, fat houses - and then they’ll change their minds and snatch up any reasonable inventory down the road. And the only thing that will be available to me will be some crappy condo in what was once a McMansion that has since been divided into a multi-family dwelling. And that McSucks.
McEnergy
How can people afford to heat and cool these places when energy prices keep climbing?
My wife just filled her gas tank for $63 — the highest amount yet. How many people can afford to keep feeding their alligators with this kind of consumer price inflation?
And how come the bond market doesn’t take note of building inflationary pressure and price in an inflation risk premium at the long end of the yield curve? (OK, there are some signs that is starting to happen… maybe the conundrum will not last forever after all.)
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
I see a booming business for bio-diesel. It’s how my neighbor runs his Excursion. He processes it in his garage. The car smells faintly of egg rolls (he gets the oil from a Chinese restaurant), but it’s worth it because he pays about $.60 a gallon when all is said and done.
The marketwatch.com front page headline is “Home Sales in the Basement” yet stock prices are on a tear. I guess Wall Street is fully convinced that subprime is contained?
http://www.marketwatch.com/
Oops — looks like I spoke prematurely. Nothing I yet see that a bit’o after lunch plunge protection won’t be able to fix, though…
Ya’ gotta luv this byline from the marketwatch.com front page:
“MARKET SNAPSHOT
Sounding like a broken record
Deal news is a driving force as stocks indexes make week’s final runs at all-time highs.”
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/oecd-money-supply/2007/05/25/#more-983
Not to worry all your bloggers. We can shut down now, because as per a Mr. Stanley from RBC Capital Markets (just on CNBC) the worst is over for the housing correction. He expects the r.e. amrket to continue going strong later this year. Now is a great time to buy on the dip…
amrket = market
I am in Dublin, Ireland (definitely bubbly) today. Even with the elections going on, the headlines this morning were all about a Dublin estate agency taking the bold (and lone) step of raising their commission rate to 1.5% from 1.0%. The headlines all spoke of boldface greed.
The agency’s reasoning? More work to sell a house these days (near 2 months on average!)
1.5%… and we tolerate 6.0%.
Bless the Irish
“Naked Greed”:
http://tinyurl.com/34jrhs
A toned-down link (TV news):
http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0524/property.html