A Sharp Pullback From The Frenzied Buying
The California realtors report on April sales. “Home sales decreased 27.8 percent in April in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home increased 6.2 percent, CAR reported today. ‘April sales fell in part because of tighter credit standards and growing concerns about the impact of subprime loans on the market,’ said C.A.R. President Colleen Badagliacco. ‘Throughout the state inventory levels have increased to their highest levels in recent years, giving buyers more time to view a greater variety of homes and sellers who set realistic prices an edge in the market.’”
“‘Although the median price of a home in California continues to rise, this reflects the fall-off in sales in the lower-priced markets of the state where new home inventories and foreclosures are competing with the existing home market,’ said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. ‘Fewer sales from these regions coupled with modest gains in some of the stronger coastal markets are pushing the median price for the state up slightly.’”
“C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in April 2007 was 10 months, compared with 5.7 months (revised) for the same period a year ago.”
“In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 35.3 percent, or 128 out of 363 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago.”
The Ventura County Star. “Ventura County’s total sales fell 20.8 percent from April 2006, continuing a sharp pullback from the frenzied buying days that began to cool in 2005. Year-over-year monthly sales have declined in double-digit percentages for the past year, ranging from 16.3 percent to 41.5 percent. April sales were also down 12.4 percent from March.”
“The area’s median price can increase while sales totals fall because it is mostly more expensive properties that are moving, said Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast Project in Santa Barbara.”
“‘We’re actually seeing that,’ Schniepp said. ‘The higher-end market is less affected by the sales slump than the lower-end market right now.’”
“Joe Virnig, president of the Ventura County Coastal Association of Realtors, said the increase in the median price in April does not mean real estate prices are going up across the board.”
“The median is as much a factor of the types of properties that are selling as their prices, he said. And a sales slowdown is to be expected after years of unsustainable price appreciation.”
“‘There are some people in my industry who see things only as wonderful and rosy when things are clearly not that way,’ said Virnig, a broker in Ventura. ‘I think it’s better to be realistic about the current situation because you have to know where you are today so you can predict accurately where things are going tomorrow.’”
“Ventura County has many neighborhoods where homes are selling at somewhat lower prices than a few years ago, Virnig said. Almost no properties in those areas changed hands for months until sellers began reducing their prices.”
“‘Now you’re seeing people with asking prices that reflect the new reality and those homes are selling,’ Virnig said.”
The News Sentinel. “The housing market in Lodi isn’t spectacular — in fact, it’s sluggish. But compared with nearly every other city in the area, sluggish looks pretty good.”
“Few think Lodi has cracked the housing slump yet and that may actually take some time. Kevin Fritz, who buys and sells houses as a hobby, said he’s had to lower the price on most of his houses.”
“‘It was easy (to flip homes) three years ago — now it’s a challenge,’ said Fritz.”
“Fritz has battled the housing slump by posting numerous ‘for sale’ signs, hosting lots of open houses and keeping his yards in top shape. Being flexible on price has also helped, he said. ‘The houses are still selling,’ said Fritz. ‘You’ve just got to listen to all offers.’”
“Currently there are 485 homes on the market between Lodi and Woodbridge, said Paul Mertz, a past president of the Lodi Association of Realtors. That’s about a nine or 10 month supply of inventory, but quite a bit less than in Stockton where many existing and new homes are still on the market.”
“Jaime Alvayay, professor of real estate finance and investments at California State University, Sacramento said he doesn’t see the state’s or the region’s housing slump disappearing anytime soon, especially now that cheap home loans are harder to find.”
“Arturo and Reyna Leyva don’t have enough money to buy a house quite yet. But even if they did, the Lodi couple said they’d probably keep renting. ‘We’d probably wait,’ said Reyna.”
“Paying $900 a month for their Lakeshore Meadows Apartment is probably the best bet for now, Arturo Leyva said. ‘Having your own house has its advantages, but (the prices) are too high,’ he said Friday in south Lodi.”
“Julie Stearns, co-owner of Colonial North Property Management in North Stockton, said many homeowners have given up on selling their homes for now. ‘They’re opting just to rent it out and wait out this (housing) slump,’ said Stearn.”
“She added that the rental market could grow stronger as the home loan business tightens up. Without as many loan options as a few years ago, fewer first-time home buyers will be able to enter the housing market, she said.”
The Orange County Register. “Subprime mortgage problems first showed up last year as an increase in defaults and foreclosures, but more recently experts say the financial difficulties are being seen on a new front, bankruptcies.”
“Filings are beginning to grow again, more than doubling in Orange County in the first four months of this year vs. the same period last year.”
“Bankruptcy experts blame it, at least in part, on homeowners who are behind on their mortgages and can’t make the payments after their initial low-cost ‘teaser’ loans adjust to higher rates.”
“‘Every month it’s worse, more and more people are coming in,’ says Natalie Lohrenz, director of counseling at Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Orange County.”
“‘The percentage of these clients coming to us for counseling and struggling with mortgage and default and/or foreclosure has been increasing from less than 20 percent in 2005 to nearly 40 percent at present,’ she says.”
“‘We’re seeing a lot more (mortgage-related bankruptcies),’ says James Bastian, a bankruptcy attorney in Foothill Ranch.”
“The mortgage effect he is seeing is twofold. First, homeowners with mortgage problems were asking about bankruptcy. Then people who lost their jobs as local mortgage companies filed for bankruptcy protection and slashed staffs also began calling.”
“‘We saw an upswing in phone calls in the last month from the fallout of the mortgage mess,’ Bastian says.”
“One of the myths about filing for bankruptcy protection is that it can prevent someone from losing their home. It’s not necessarily so.”
“‘The problem with bankruptcy for clients struggling with mortgage default is that it is only a temporary fix unless getting rid of all their unsecured debt leaves them plenty to pay the regular mortgage,’ says Lohrenz. ‘They will still face foreclosure and the filing only postpones the inevitable.’”
‘Although the median price of a home in California continues to rise, this reflects the fall-off in sales in the lower-priced markets of the state where new home inventories and foreclosures are competing with the existing home market,’ said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.’
Well, well. Looks like the realtors are finally hungry enough to quit hiding behind the median and are starting to talk the sellers down.
“Home sales decreased 27.8 percent in April in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home increased 6.2 percent, CAR reported today.”
Watch out for weasle wordings. As we have often noted on this blog, one cannot tell what is happening to the market price of any particular home from changes in the median price.
An increase in the median is consistent with a post-subprime-collapse wipeout of lower-end purchase demand that is masking across-the-board declines in market values for any individual existing home.
Have friends in Florida who confirm that only higher-end homes are selling. That would definitely result in a boost to the median while hiding the true state of affairs.
Ain’t that the truth GS!
Here in Australia we have had the proverbial soft landing (so far; I’m expecting secondary effects in a year or so due to US and or China fallout).
But even so, there are lower-end areas where prices are still way below what was paid at the peak (2-3 years back). Ben quoted an article only yesterday which highlighted some of these areas.
I looks like we went from “Anger” to “Acceptance” without even hitting “”Bargaining” or “Depression”…at least for the RE professionals. Gotta have food on the table.
This thread at BO had me giddy.
“Realtors will be eager to see anybody who can potentially bring them more business. If that is what you are providing, you should be welcome.
Bring sandwiches, because a lot of the Realtors I know are starving to death. It breaks my heart, too, after how well the Phoenix Realtors treated us mortgage brokers in 2004 and 2005, when they were getting fat. Sarcasm intentional.”
http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/2/121453.htm
Broker Outpost? You’ve got to be kidding. Giddy? It gives me the willies! A chat room for mortgage folks….i think I’m gonna puke.
That reminds me - what’s worse than a bus full of mortgage brokers going over a cliff?…….an empty seat.
I realize who the source is, but that one post says volumes. That’s why I’m giddy. I’m sure the feeling will return when they post about themselves starving to death.
Sellers still in denial phase. Not much capitulation on homes doing the terminal mls ride. Some better priced ones coming online, but a long long ways to go. It’ll be interesting to see when seller psychology really shifts.
I read in the San Diego Union this morning that the median price was up in SD, despite doom and gloom about sales figures.
This abuse of the median term is quite something.
If all that sold in a given month were a couple of $1M homes, then that is gonna be the median. And guess what? The upper end is the ONLY thing hiding the magnitude of the collapse.
Once the equity locusts have jumped on all the high end stuff there will be nothing left to keep propping up the “median”.
Run yourself a little spreadsheet and list out 10 homes over a couple of months. Compare the average sale price to median sale price. It is truly staggering how the median can “warp” the picture of what is going on (in both directions).
Here are my fictitious sales:
Jan - 6 100K homes and 4 1M homes. MED=100K and AVG=460K
Feb - 5 100K homes and 5 1M homes. MED=550K and AVG=550K
Mar - 4 100K homes and 6 1M homes. MED=1M and AVG=640K
Until we have a market where the low end volume is higher than the high end volume, the actual crash will be masked by the “median” since median favors high end sales when nothing is selling at the low end.
It will be interesting to see if when the shoe is on the other foot and the low end volume is higher whether the NAR/MSM will then switch over to the “average” to make the numbers look better with the fewer high end sales.
Regardless, all you have to do is look at the soaring listings EVERYWHERE in the country.
Supply and demand drive market price…Econ 101.
Lots of “high end stuff” sitting in Lake Oswego. I drove through today and found about 7 houses within an area about the size of a football field that were for sale. Portland area median should be headed for a face plant any time now.
How about the whole state. Tree Huggers will own the state before long.
“‘Every month it’s worse, more and more people are coming in,’ says Natalie Lohrenz, director of counseling at Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Orange County.”
She ain’t seen nothing yet. Just wait until Lansner’s “high end” prediction of 5% OC price declines is proved wrong by irrefutable evidence.
even General Lansner won’t be to hide the causualties brought on by the assault on reason waged by an army of realtors, flopper and assorted shills.
Wish they’d try that here… guess they don’t have to yet. Not from LA? Want a laugh? Type 90048 into realtor.com, check the single family box, and marvel at what 1 million$$ plus buys in a “nice” part of town. These places were all 2-400k about 6-7 years ago. People are still buying them. Maybe it’s just me but, uh…
“try that here” refers to Bens “talk the sellers down” comment at the top…
There are way too many a$$hats here for that to be effective… Wait untill the R.E.O.’s come onshore and the fed starts choking off the oxygen to some of these banks. You’re going to see a mad rush to the exits. Seeing it with the lower end investors now that subprime has dried up, mix in some more R.E.O.’s this summer and add a little more maniac reporting like I saw on Fox News this morning and all hell will break loose. Just be patient . It’s coming and it going to be bad. But it’s right on schedule.
I agree, just gotta vent every now and then.
alwways appreciate your info/opinion BTW! Speaking of a$$hats… here’s the blurb from a local (to me) “bargain”
Just Reduced 75K!!! Must be sold. Great opportunity for the creative builder/designer or “flipper”! This fixer is on a 7000 sq ft lot and located close to everything. Public records show a 4 Br 3Ba house. Currently there are 3 Br 2 Ba with a very large dinning room and huge eat in kitchen. This home needs a make over but the potential is there and the comps are great for making $.
flipper? Making$?…What year is it here?
Here’s the listing… http://tinyurl.com/ys5krh
Honestly… it’s got potential. Not for that $$ though…
Oh…. asking 875K. Check this out… Must be intra family or something, but still…
Last Sale: 02/10/00
Sales Price: $85,000
Yea, that was probably for a second, intra-family or something like that, even during the downturn they were getting 200k for that area. I like the style of the Olympic Blvd properties… too bad the traffic is pure chaos on that street. 875k well hell do I really have to render an opinion LOL… that just pure stupidity, based on the traffic aspect alone.
that is a pos - nothing there speaks to me - and anyone who ever lived in la would know to avoid a house with gridlock in front 24/7… icky
You know, I really used to make a point of catching the Saturday morning financial shows. Now I get repulsed at the thought.
People are still overpaying by a factor of at least 3x on the West Side, and deals are still closing. I think this area has become an A$$h4t magnet. The buying frenzy may have cooled down, but the prices are stil hot hot hot - radioactive.
The other day I visited a friend in Mar Vista - this in a nicer part of Mar Vista, but still - Mar Vista (90066), 1/2 mile from the runways at Clover Field. The house is a 3/2 with small rooms on a small lot. According to some 2007 comps I looked at, it could sell for a little over a million bucks right now. I might pay $250K for it if it were fixed up.
I could not get online this morning. Fox spent an inordinate amount of time talking about Rosie
Therein lies the problem… the fact that people are still paying these prices. The idea that RE prices could fall meaningfully is completely foreign to westside buyers. Hell, *any* side buyers in this town. (except for the 20 or so people who post here
)
People on the blog sometimes revel in vilifying realtors, brokers, etc. They’re not the problem though… It’s the buyers. If no one paid the price, the price would come down. Currently, they’re still paying.
We’re still in strong denial here. If this plays out as expected, a lot of folks’ worlds are gonna be rocked. Should be fun to watch! And if it doesn’t happen… Well, guess I’ll just have to keep saving half my income. I’m sure the cash will come in handy at some point…
The westside has changed a lot since I was a kid. All our neighbors used to be mechanics, plumbers, eyeglass salesmen, teachers, etc. Also, there used to be families here. Now you don’t find those kinds of people…it’s a whole different demographic. It was never trendy before, it was just West LA. Hardly anyone even called it that. With these kinds of people moving in, and with the change in perception of this area, I don’t think prices are going to fall 50%. Probably not even 40%. Think about it, if you’re an American and you don’t want to live surrounded by millions of immigrants, and you have a decent amount of money, where else are you going to go in this city?
By the way, where is everyone today?
dear lainvestor girl,
This is a country of immigrants and their descendants. Your ancestors were immigrants, once upon a time, unless they were American Indians, and even American Indians moved to this continent from points West a very long time ago. I trust that when your ancestors arrived there were people who didn’t want them lowering the property values in their community, or perhaps stealing their land outright if your immigrant ancestors arrived long enough ago.
Actually, my father was an immigrant, but no one avoided living near him because he: learned English right away, didn’t park his car on the lawn, lived alone or shared with one roommate rather than living in a clown house with 15 family members, and didn’t play ranchero music all hours of the night. Sorry, no comparison.
where is everyone today?
Isn’t it a holiday weekend in the US this weekend?
i am sure they meant illegal immigrants. but now everyone seems to think the two are one in the same. so i see no difference calling illegals just immigrants in southern california.
My mom has always wanted to live on the westside. I told her why not sell the house in Glendale and go buy a condo in Bel Air. Somehow she can have a little smaller place and actually make money off of the house by moving to the westside.
I just saw a lot of houses with Sold signs on them that went up in the last few weeks. So people are still buying these little 1400 sq. ft. houses in glendale for $800k+. And got this huge 2 page flipout really nicely done glossy flyer for 1 house in the newer mountain portion of the city with really nice views of Downtown. I am shocked someone would spend so much money on a flyer for just one house and send it to everyone. Now thats crazy, and there was no price on the flyer. Here is a link to that flyer and the house shown on the flyer isnt even listed!! So come and look at the crazy prices in LA.
http://www.realestate123.com/Nav.aspx/Page=/ListNow/Default.aspx
@ plysat 18:03:
I agree. With all the “demand” the past few years, I’m really surprised at how many buyers are still around. Perhaps they’re trading up after taking gains on a sale?
I often wonder what percentage of sellers are rolling their gains into a new house and how many are banking the gains and renting. I’m guessing most of the recent buyers in W. LA are move ups.
Personally, I don’t mind these “asshats” blowing their money on overpriced housing. Yeah, it sucks for now and will draw this thing out, but I’m hopeful that when proper prices finally find me, there won’t be much competition.
lainvestorgirl
no, I’m sure your father didn’t play ranchero music or park his car on the lawn (which lots of Okies have done in California for 70 years). But maybe your father got into drunken Irish brawls? Or smelled like garlic and got into Italian knife-fights? Or ate smelly German liverwurst (and would have been suspected of disloyalty had he been here in WWII)? The point is that these ridiculous stereotypes are hurled against each wave of immigrants. They don’t learn English . . . until they do. Most Mexican immigrants to the US learn English. Their kids surely do. Immigrants do the top and bottom work in this country. Without immigrant engineers and scientists, you could kiss the high tech and bio-tech industries goodby. Without immigrant farmhands you would see your food costs go through the roof. All those lazy Mexicans . . . sucking pesticides, hunched over picking strawberries, doing the lion’s share of labor in the construction trades, garment industry, gardening, house cleaning. Why don’t they act like good white collar middle class Americans and get rich by bamboozling people in shady real estate and mortgage deals? I guess they just don’t want to assimilate.
Joe,
Hope you don’t mind if I chime in here…
My mother is also an immigrant, and I have the same feelings as LA investorgirl.
There’s one other thing LA IG didn’t mention, and that’s the whole “minority/majority” issue. As long as “Americans” were the majority, any immigrants might have been viewed negatively, but they were easier to tolerate as the didn’t threaten the existence (majority status) of the “American” (WASP) population.
There are obviously many different perspectives to the whole immigration issue, but we will never solve the problems as long as we shun all speech which might be considered “racist” (and I absolutely HATE that word, because it is incorrectly used against honest people who are trying to address and solve some very obvious and pressing problems.
Can you truly not understand why some people who grew up in safe, clean, comfortable, English-only (including our immigrant parents), neighborhoods might have a problem with people don’t seem concerned about keeping up the neighborhood and trying to be good neighbors?
In or last neighborhood,we had really, really bad white (trash), American neighbors who had meth labs, broke into & stole from all the neighbors, etc. I’ve also had the **very BEST** neighbors who were Mexican, so I know how “real life” might not be at all similar to the stereotypes. That being said, where there’s smoke, there’s fire; and those who complain about the stereotypes usually have personal experiences which lead them to feel the way they do. That doesn’t make them bad people, just people who have a different set of knowledge, culture and experiences.
We need to get beyond the name-calling and try to solve the problems (and it’s not going to be done by forcing anyone to do something against their will).
Huge difference, in fact a legal difference.
Legal immigrants are generally welcomed..not always, but generally.
Why should people be expected to welcome illegals? Would anyone volunteer to live next door to criminals?
I think a really good example of what has happened to the city of LA is if you drive on Santa Monica BLVD and go near El Centro. This area is basically where a lot of the big studios are located. Also I just was told that the cemetary in the middle of this area is where a lot of famous hollywood stars are buried. Now can you imagine all of this smack right in the middle of one of the nastiest looking places, because its just a dump everywhere surrounding it. I know this didnt happen overnight, but this has the potential to just keep turning the rest of Socal into such a gross and TJ looking city. Its very similiar to what I remember of TJ when going there about 10 years ago.
Liar loans in the MSM:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070526/stretching_the_truth.html?.v=4
“Paying $900 a month for their Lakeshore Meadows Apartment is probably the best bet for now, Arturo Leyva said. ‘Having your own house has its advantages, but (the prices) are too high,’ he said Friday in south Lodi.”
Refreshing to see a Latino couple that isn’t falling for the siren song of unscrupulous Spanish-speaking realtors and lenders. In Colorado Springs a good 40% of the foreclosure FBs have Hispanic surnames. Maybe the word is finally getting out to steer clear of predatory realtors and lenders, even the ones that look and speak like you.
median follies
the WAPOST has prices for a local county 05 to 06
isn’t it 2007 now ?
John Mauldin is one of the more highly regarded financial analysts. Here’s his take on the housing mess:
http://2000wave.com/printarticle.asp?id=mwo052507
Very interesting. I’m willling to entertain the idea that the exposure to the bad housing loans is very widely distributed, so widely distributed that it won’t bring down any hedge funds or other major institutions. Not completely convinced, but willing to accept the possibility. That is a good thing. It will reduce pressure for a bail out. BUT, I would have liked an analysis of what he thought getting burned on these investments would do to the markets - what sort of changes in lending practices will result from the hedgies losing their money, how much will that shrink the lending pool, will that have any effect on rates all by itself, etc. That doesn’t seem to be his specialty, but I would have loved to see it.
“I would have liked an analysis of what he thought getting burned on these investments would do to the markets - what sort of changes in lending practices will result from the hedgies losing their money, how much will that shrink the lending pool, will that have any effect on rates all by itself, etc.”
You raise a very good question.
…so widely distributed that it won’t bring down any hedge funds or other major institutions.
Common misconception, widely accepted as gospel on Wall Street.
The market fooled itself in this regard. After dispersing their original x dollars of risk, individual players determined they could assume MORE risk. Soooo, everyone took on 99x more risk, but because it too was distributed they felt safe. Unfortunately, the same basic market as a whole now has 100x the risk.
This is known as systemic risk, wherein a single “event” can destabilize the entire market. Think LTCM x 1000.
John makes a mistake.
Many of those who hold these securities don’t have to mark to market. They only mark to purchase price until
1 - They sell the security
2 - The security gets down graded.
Even if downgraded, they may hold on without changing their cost unless it violates their mandate. That is, going from investment grade to non-investment grade.
A great example here, from Bloomberg:
Standard & Poor’s cut the credit ratings on $422 million of bonds backed by second-lien
mortgages, saying a unit of Washington Mutual Inc. that services the loans failed to disclose delinquencies on time.
Almost $53 million in loans, or about 10 percent of the original amount, will be written off less than a year after the securities were sold, S&P said in a research note today. The losses, from 612 loans that became 180 days delinquent between November 2006 and April 2007, bring the total amount to $68.4 million the past 10 months, a rate of 12.9 percent, S&P said.
Washington Mutual’s Long Beach Mortgage Trust LP should have written off the mortgages sooner because the payments were late. S&P didn’t state a reason for why Long Beach delayed writing off the loans. Three classes of the bonds were cut to D, S&P’s lowest grade and a rating that equates to default. Three investment-grade credits were cut to speculative-grade, or junk.
John Mauldin
Best article that I have read on housing.
“In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 35.3 percent, or 128 out of 363 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago.”
And in yet another separate report also covering more localized statistics first released right here and now before your very eyes, a blogger reported that 64.7 percent, or 235 out of 363 cities and communities, showed the same or a lower median home price from a year ago. This new report further noted that the median city and/or community reported a lower median price from a year ago, although the percentage drop in the median was not ascertainable from the available data.
You read my mind, GS!
“many homeowners have given up on selling their homes for now. ‘They’re opting just to rent it out and wait out this (housing) slump,’ said Stearn.”
Seeing as most recently purchased houses can’t fetch the rent needed to carry them (by about 50%), that’s $$$ gone this month, $$$ gone the next month, $$$ gone the month after that…
“Without as many loan options as a few years ago, fewer first-time home buyers will be able to enter the housing market, she said.”
And serial refinancers won’t be able to leave the housing market…at least not ‘alive’.
Sad (for them) but good for us, they will be stuck in those payments unless they walk away. They won’t be able to take advantage of buying in the dip when prices are 50% from 2005. A house they agreed to buy for, say $800,000 in 2005 will be worth only $400,000 in 2012, but since it’s $$$ gone this month, $$$ gone the next month, for several years to pay mortgage banks, they won’t be able to double down. Non-commital renters like us will be able to get double for our money. The bonus is, we have been getting positive gains on T-bills, treasury notes, municipal bonds, savings bonds, money market funds, CDs, dividend stocks over the last few years and will continue with 4% to 6% gains, probably a total of 12 years of annual gains by 2012 and be much further ahead of the a$$hats who bought in 2003 - 2006. Patience, humility, and not being greedy are very well rewarded.
I have a friend who moved here (East Bay - Contra Costa) almost 2 years ago from the midwest, and just recently finally found a renter for his house there that would not sell. He immediately started talking about buying a house here so that he is not throwing his money away on rent. I tried to explain that the money he isn’t spending on taxes, insurance, HOA, etc., on a depreciating asset could be earning income, but I don’t think he listened. Another Greater Fool coming soon to a location near you….
“They won’t be able to take advantage of buying in the dip when prices are 50% from 2005.”
People mired in debt will, conversely, be a driving factor behind a future 50% real price decline from 2005.
The bonus is, we have been getting positive gains on T-bills, treasury notes, municipal bonds, savings bonds, money market funds, CDs, dividend stocks over the last few years and will continue with 4% to 6% gains..
Patience, humility, and not being greedy are very well rewarded.
Great post BIP, I am in total agreement.
As long as you don’t look at your holdings in Euro terms… where everything (including that Bull US stock market) have been falling for the past 5 years.
exactly, inflation is running at and most probably above the interest rate. stocks are going to suffer when things get bad.
‘The houses are still selling,’ said Fritz. ‘You’ve just got to listen to all offers.’
This reminds me of the Geico Caveman ad:
GUEST: “We live in a society where individual ego is at the forefront.”
ANCHOR: “Response?”
CAVEMAN: “Yeah, I have a response. Ah, WHAT?”
That is very condescending to cavemen. To compare them to a Realtor?
David Lereah is gone. Who will follow him next? Leslie Appleton-Young?
My first choice is Jack Bauer. But he is unavailable, fictional, and over-qualified.
stephen colbert would be my choice
Or what about Rosie O’Donnell?
She is looking a job and what better job to have than a BSer for NAR.
That’s funny, although it probably won’t happen - go to have a an attractive, professional-looking woman. Remeber, they are selling the dream of good-looking people, good-looking SUV or euro car, and nice big home…
Question to THB bloggers - What date would you put on the peak of the HB? I would say that December 2005 was the peak in most markets, and it has been downhill since. Curious what date you think it officially turned.
I am actually buying a house that I am getting at a substantial discount from the peak, and I will stay in if for a long time, so even though I have waited forever, I don’t care if the market crashes at this point - it is a house that has things that would be extremely difficult to match.
Too many HBBers caving in.
Congratulations on the new house.
My guess for the top, nationally, would be around Oct-Dec 2005, but it really depends on where you are. Some areas had already started going down, while some have yet to go down at all.
Good luck!
Given that house prices are still increasing in California (at least in the median sense), we haven’t technically even reached the peak yet. And yet people still talk about the market possibly reaching bottom next year?! I predict that we’ll finally see falling median prices in California (including Los Angeles and San Francisco) by mid-2008, and prices will reach bottom somewhere in the 2013-2015 period.
LA Times RE blog has an interesting tidbit:
In CA mortgage brokers have a fiduciary responsibility to borrowers as determined by the CA supreme court.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/05/four_questions_.html#comments
I think we will see a good bit of deterioration in 08. A lot of subprimers that lost houses will be depressed and probably not work at all. They are probably feeling pretty hopeless right about now.
WOnder how things will be in our cities and poor rural areas?
Hmmm
Lender about to foreclose on you. Get your revenge with swine:
http://tinyurl.com/2n4ceb
Thought y’all might get some mileage outta this one. This guy even put down 20%. Still, I hope the lender goes after this tool.
Wow. A little bitter, was he?
A bitter homeowner? He should have never purchased, then he could be a PROUD RENTER.
Let’s say you wante to find the sqft of a house that sold recently…
This one for example:
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=7911257
http://www.azcentral.com/class/marketplace/homes.php?pgAction=homedetail&address=5817+W+REDFIELD+RD&city=GLENDALE&zip=85306
http://recorder.maricopa.gov/recdocdata/GetRecDataPgDn.asp?rec=0&nm=warden%20margar%20&sar=UnOfficial&bid=&bdt=1/1/1983&edt=5/26/2007&cde=&set=250&lnk=1&bsw=TRUE&basket_id=&shopper_Id=&usr_Email=
Any idea how to get the sqft? Thanks.
Never mind. I found it on the accessors’ web site.
This abuse of the median term is quite something.
I agree and from now on I thing the ONLY stat that should be used is price per SQ. FT…. Let these RE agents run from that one!!!!
Think about it, if you’re an American and you don’t want to live surrounded by millions of immigrants, and you have a decent amount of money, where else are you going to go in this city?
Yea, I see your point, but when you are paying all of those high TAXES and they are going to all those immigrants I bet you will be OUTRRAGED!!!!!!!!!