May 29, 2007

The Spring Selling Season Was A Total Fizzle

The Chicago Tribune reports from Ilinois. “In the Chicago area the housing market continues to suffer from an overhang of unsold homes and from price discounting, said Bill Gronow, a partner with Kennedy Builders in South Barrington. ‘We were overheated and the market isn’t bad, but it has returned to normal,’ said Gronow.”

“Chicago-area home builders ‘were caught off guard by the slowness of the spring selling season, which was a total fizzle, said housing consultant Steve Hovany.”

“Normally, by this time, half the new-home sales for a year have occurred, he said. ‘But this year, if the current total number of sales in the Chicago area were to double, the situation still would be quite gloomy,’ Hovany said.”

From Chicago Business. “Chicago-area foreclosures, which set a record last year, are projected to reach full-blown crisis levels in 2007. Cook County is on pace to record at least 30,000 and as many as 36,000 foreclosure filings this year, according to Cook County Circuit Court Judge Dorothy Kinnaird.”

“That would mean a 35% to 62% increase from 2006, when 22,248 filings were easily the highest in county history after having risen 36% from the previous year.”

“The data show foreclosures up in nearly every part of the city and suburbs, from the middle-class South Shore neighborhood (up 55%, to 331 foreclosures, last year) to the well-heeled suburb of Wilmette (up 192%, to 38).”

“‘It’s not just unsophisticated borrowers who got into trouble,’ says David Rose, the analyst who authored the report. ‘It just shows you how risky these (adjustable-rate mortgages) really are.’”

The Times Reporter from Ohio. “For Realtors, property buyers and sellers in Tuscarawas County it’s a matter of whether the glass is half empty or half full. Although the average number of Days on the Market for real estate is at record highs for most areas of the county, others view it as a great opportunity to purchase a home.”

“Realtor Holly Waldenmyer said there always will be sellers who think their home is worth more than what the market shows it’s worth. ‘Sometimes it takes time to convince them that it’s lower than what they recognize. You see some of them on the market for a long time because it takes them time to be realistic.’”

“Real estate broker Craig Barnett added that the average sale price is being hurt by the record number of foreclosures. ‘The houses that are foreclosed on are stigmatized, they sell for less than they’re worth for the most part,’ he said.”

The Columbus Dispatch from Ohio. “Take your pick, home buyers: You have plenty to choose from. There are 18,571 homes listed for sale in central Ohio, according to the Columbus Board of Realtors. That’s about 300 short of the record, set last July, and it doesn’t include many new builds, homes for sale by owners, repossessions or homes that have fallen off the listings without selling.”

“Ken Danter, (who) analyzes the central Ohio real-estate market, offers (an) explanation: So many people bought homes during the area’s housing boom a few years ago that the pool of available buyers has dwindled.”

“‘It’s not a function of this being a bad market,’ Danter said. ‘It’s a function of having such a good market five years ago.’”

“Central Ohio has become so crowded with homes that one major builder, Centex Homes, announced last week that it is pulling out of Columbus to focus on more-successful markets.”

“‘A lot of people are getting closing costs paid for; a lot of the issues are being taken care of by the sellers,’ said Powell agent Chris Anderson. ‘We need these people to pull the trigger. They see no urgency, because it’s a buyer’s market right now.’”

The Detroit Free Press from Michigan. “Danielle Merriweather hasn’t made a mortgage payment since December. But instead of joining the 16,351 Detroiters whose properties were foreclosed on during the first quarter of the year, Merriweather began to work with her lender and agreed to sell her property in what’s called a short sale.”

“She paid $140,000 for the house and owes roughly $127,000. The house is on the market for $125,000 and probably will sell for even less.”

“The ranks of financially strapped homeowners also likely will increase as those with adjustable-rate mortgages find themselves unable to handle the higher monthly payments. ‘I’m getting calls every day,’ said real estate agent Venesha Harris in Royal Oak. Homeowners ‘ask, ‘What can I do?’ It’s desperate times out there.’”

“Even when lenders agree to a short sale, some may not be willing to take much below what they are owned, said Mandy Melone, a Realtor in Livonia. But in some cases, lenders ‘are taking 50 cents on the dollar of what’s owed them,’ said Melone.”

The Cadillac News from Michigan. “In his 23 years as the owner of Johnson and Associates, Keith Johnson has seen the highs, lows and in-betweens that are associated with the real estate market.”

“‘The one cardinal rule is all real estate is local. When you look at southeast Michigan things are completely different. Prices are falling (in southeast Michigan) but they also had a boom year,’ he said. ‘For better or for worse, we just haven’t had a boom year. We’ve had growth, just not a boom year. Now we are just not seeing the normal price growth we have seen.’”

“‘We would love to have more sales going but the market adjusts,’ said Realtor Rick Lantz. ‘This area felt the boom that there was nationally but not to the extent of the East Coast and West Coast or even the Sun Belt.’”

From Minnesota Public Radio. “Real estate statistics show a continued slump in home sales in the Twin Cities. And industry experts say no one should expect a turnaround anytime soon.”

“After years of a housing boom in Minnesota, Zola Thompson wasn’t expecting a soft real estate market when it came time for her to sell.”

“‘I kept seeing this thing going lower and lower, and I really would like to get as much as we can out of it because we’re going to be living on some of this in our old age, and I just wanted to get as much as we could,’ says Thompson.”

“Glen Dorfman of the Minnesota Association of Realtors recommends that sellers accept the market for what it is, and not hold out for a recovery.”

“‘Right now we’re in a frightening time of flat and declining market values, so why not cut losses?’ says Dorfman.”

“Dorfman says market conditions are more likely to get worse than better if, as expected, the rate of foreclosures continues to climb. That would dump even more homes on an already saturated market, pushing prices down further.”

“‘I’ve been saying to everybody who will listen, if you have your house on the market and your realtor tells you to update the living room carpeting, or stage it…then you should do that,’ says Dorfman. ‘And if you need to reduce the price today $10,000 to $20,000, it’s far better to reduce it 10 or 20 than in six months having to reduce it 70 [thousand] or 80 [thousand].’”

“Tom Musil, head of the real estate program at the University of St. Thomas, predicts the market won’t stabilize until late next year. But even then, he cautions not to expect a return to boom times.”

“‘You have to realize the feeding frenzy that we were in from ‘98 to about 2006 is going to be hard to repeat,’ says Musil. ‘We saw tremendous increases in values and in a short period, maybe eight or seven-year period, and when you see houses increase 250 or 300 percent, that’s pretty tough to match.’”




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107 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-05-29 12:36:26

‘So many people bought homes during the (Ohio) area’s housing boom a few years ago that the pool of available buyers has dwindled. ‘It’s not a function of this being a bad market,’ Danter said. ‘It’s a function of having such a good market five years ago.’

‘You have to realize the (Minnesota) feeding frenzy that we were in from ‘98 to about 2006 is going to be hard to repeat,’ says Musil. ‘We saw tremendous increases in values and in a short period, maybe eight or seven-year period, and when you see houses increase 250 or 300 percent, that’s pretty tough to match.’

No national bubble?

‘The number of home mortgage foreclosures is rising compared to last year – according to data from the Hennepin County (MN) Sheriff’s Office. In April alone, there were 184 listed, last year. This year that number was up to 351.’

‘What Setterquist and Stanley are seeing is that due to inflated appraisal values, homeowners owe more than what the home is worth. For example, Setterquist said, the mortgage may be $250,000 but the home’s value is $150,000 to $210,000.’

‘This industry was so ripe for fraud,’ Setterquist said. ‘All a person needed to get into selling these types of loans was a telephone and access to mortgage representatives…Why not take an extra $5,000 for a vacation,’ the lender might say,’ Setterquist described. ‘How long has it been since you had a vacation? You deserve it.’ And it just escalates from there. ‘How about a boat, a TV?’

Comment by GH
2007-05-29 12:39:49

I have heard parts of Texas have not seen much in the way of gains

Comment by txchick57
2007-05-29 13:04:56

Not true.

Comment by Mark_in_Dallas
2007-05-29 13:54:33

Please clarify which metro areas in Texas have experienced large price appreciation this decade.

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Comment by txchick57
2007-05-29 13:59:09

Inner city Dallas
Inner city Houston
Inner city Austin
Inner city San Antonio
Marfa - LOL!

would you like to debate any of this with me?

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-05-29 14:01:23

Barren west Texas wasteland
Texas Hill Country
Galveston
Certain Dallas exurbs that attract California locusts, such as Grapevine, Colleyville, Southlake.

I’ll grant you that Collin County has gone nowhere. But it never will unless someone finds gold in the city of Plano.

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-05-29 14:03:43

Parts of Oak Cliff you couldn’t give away 5 years ago, now sport $1-2M houses (Kessler Woods)

Crappy townhouses and McMansions on Lowest Greenville, Bryan Street, Live Oak Street, Fair Park/Baylor area (otherwise known as Crackhouse Central)

It would be easier for me to name places that haven’t artificially “appreciated”

 
2007-05-29 14:29:30

txhcick,

Let me guess. You hear the same thing there that I hear in Chicago, “The prices in (insert city here) aren’t as bad as Miami, California so there’s no bubble here.”

I call it the realtor theory of relativety. Relative to the INSANE bubble markets we didn’t appreciate as much so we don’t have a bubble.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-05-29 14:32:01

And everybody knows that I live in the only place on earth that will not see one nickel of declines in housing values. God bless Manhattan.

 
Comment by Mark_in_Dallas
2007-05-30 06:26:29

TxChick,

The original poster stated he heard there were some parts of Texas that had not shown much appreciation. You answered in a way that implied every area has appreciated beyond belief. I asked you which METRO areas had shown large increases and you only provided anecdotal evidence at best regarding small clusters of housing. Some of the examples you provided are truly bubbles, some are debatable because the quality of housing has changed in those areas and you would need to look at the change in income buying those houses; as long as the people buying the house can truly afford it, then it’s hard to say that it’s a bubble.

To the original poster, yes there is an inventory bubble in Texas, and yes there were some neighborhoods that got out of whack with fundamentals (including high-rise condos and townhomes), but as a whole the major metro areas experienced an average growth rate between 4-5% a year for this decade; which adjusted for inflation is pretty much zero gain. It will take some time to clear out our inventory problem and there will be a variety of price declines, but anyone who thinks we will see anywhere close to the same amount of housing deflation as the “coasts” just isn’t looking at the facts. The one major theme on this blog is that houses will move when prices come down to a level that matches lending standards based on household income. Well, as a whole our metro areas are already below those standards.

http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/misc/afford1.html

Yes, it’s different here, just as it’s different in Florida, California, Arizona, etc. This bubble has affected each area differently and the fallout will be different in each area as well.

 
 
 
Comment by CP
2007-05-29 15:04:07

Raw land prices in TX were up a lot also.
E.g. swamp land/rice paddies in SE houston (Brazoria) increased >3x during this bubble

 
 
Comment by tcm_guy
2007-05-29 16:31:09

“There is a network – Minnesota Housing and Finance is like HUD for Minnesota,” Setterquist said. “It has state funds. If clients qualify, if they can afford housing and go forward, they offer zero percent loans … Can you afford the house going forward? If so, they can pay the arrears for you. If they caught you up and paid the utilities, can you make the payments from now on?

How much in funds can the Minnesota taxpayers pay to subsidize FB’s utility bills and zero percent mortgages for houses they can not afford?

How long before this money runs out?

Just wasting tax payers money to delay the inevitable.

Got 10% down?

 
 
Comment by txchick57
Comment by shadash
2007-05-29 12:56:27

Call me a vulture all you want. As a buyer I’ve got cash and all sellers have is a depreciating asset.

Let’s see who can last longer.

My guess is sooner than later sellers will be kissing vulture ass.

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-29 12:59:50

“Even vultures gotta eat.”

Not if they have the option to rent forever at 2/3 the cost of buying.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-05-29 13:02:42

My former landlady could tell these newly minted “investors” a thing or two about foreclosures. She bought one on the courthouse steps in 1998. When we last spoke face-to-face, she was STILL fixing the place up. And our most recent conversation happened in 2005.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-05-29 13:03:14

“We’re seeing more investors from the mainstream - single guys, dentists, women executives - all looking to build up portfolios with real estate while it’s cheap,” said Dave Webb, a principal at Hudson & Marshall, the nation’s largest auctioneer of foreclosed homes.”

Cheap? What? Oh, I get it real estate is soon to go back up. Riiiight. People on ludes should not drive.

Comment by Mikey(2)
2007-05-29 14:36:22

People on ludes should not drive.

I can’t argue with that.

Comment by phillygal
2007-05-29 15:52:37

Do you have to be over 40 to get this joke? Cause I get it.

Meanwhile, back at the article -

“We’re seeing more investors from the mainstream - single guys, dentists, women executives - all looking to build up portfolios with real estate while it’s cheap,”

Oh no. No.

More RE “portfolios”.

WTF is a RE portfolio anyhow? Does anyone blogging here have one? Help a sistah out…

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2007-05-29 17:35:48

Dentist? Must be a rock-solid investment plan.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Betamax
2007-05-29 13:07:24

“Some wage earners are tapping into IRA nest eggs to plow their cash into a foreclosed home or two as a safe investment, buying at steep discounts of up to 20 percent”

Bwahahaha. Sometimes vultures eat poisoned meat.

Comment by Helicopter Commander Bernanke
2007-05-29 13:32:22

Just like it was a “safe investment” for the first generation of chumps, right?

 
Comment by rntrinAZ
2007-05-29 18:33:38

I believe I might just be in shock as I read that. This reporter and his paper should be held responsible for 25-50% of all losses realized by each and every reader they influence to get into the real estate market with this type of garbage article. Bleh!

 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-05-29 13:58:49

This story illustrates why it’s going to take several years for this thing to correct. You got these boneheads overpaying for foreclosures, and enough of them will prop up prices in the short term. This is truly bubblemania. I can’t believe how foolish these people are. A bucket of money and a box of stupid is right.

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-05-29 15:12:59

Exactly….

 
 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-05-29 12:38:22

OT
IRS
call the 800 number go nowhere- trying to fax the number they give and it’s always busy
gun to your head……….

Comment by auger-inn
2007-05-29 13:31:29

Why bother, they don’t stand by any of the information that they tell you over the phone. They totally disclaim responsibility for the reliability of their “experts”. You have a better chance of getting the correct answer by going down to your local zoo and asking the chimps.

Comment by spike66
2007-05-29 17:44:57

Jane Goodal has observed chimps finding and using new tools and creatively solving problems. Comparing IRS employees with chimps is an insult and obviously unfair to chimps everywhere.

 
 
 
2007-05-29 12:50:12

“Chicago-area foreclosures, which set a record last year, are projected to reach full-blown crisis levels in 2007. Cook County is on pace to record at least 30,000 and as many as 36,000 foreclosure filings this year, according to Cook County Circuit Court Judge Dorothy Kinnaird.”

“That would mean a 35% to 62% increase from 2006, when 22,248 filings were easily the highest in county history after having risen 36% from the previous year.”

I gotta get in the foreclosure biz here!

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-05-29 13:17:52

Who was it here who said real estate would be the next bubble? Could be correct, assuming foreclosures. Just more proof that people are still ga ga over real estate.

20% off still doesn’t cash flow, so I’m guessing these are going to be flipped. But who are they going to sell to?

It won’t be until people such as these finally clear out that it’ll make sense to invest.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-05-29 13:19:18

This was also partially in response to txchk’s article above.

2007-05-29 13:40:29

There needs to be a universal sarcasm font.

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-05-29 19:09:13

Any thoughts as what they mean by “crisis levels”? And in 2007 no less - so soon?

2007-05-30 04:33:21

EJ,

This quote is from a CBS 2 News report last week.

““The actual crisis hasn’t started yet,” said John Groene of Neighborhood Housing Services. “We’ll see that in a couple years.”

http://cbs2chicago.com/specialreports/local_story_137214558.html

 
 
 
Comment by OC_Stomp
2007-05-29 12:53:01

My wife has an email address very similar to somebody trying to sell a house right now - I found it quite entertaining…

———- Forwarded message ———-
From: XXXX
Date: May 25, 2007 9:11 PM
Subject: Update on your listing–
Hi YYYY,
I wanted to give you an update of your activity–Since the beginning of May through the 24th, you have had approx. 11 showings. I am getting positive feedback on the house and condition. Some negative feedback on the back yard size–but most of the negative feedback I’m getting is on the price.
The market here is very tough as it is everywhere right now, and listings are being reduced all over the area. Not to give them away, but just to make them more competitive. I’ve seen several basement listings drop into your price range and that will prevent you from getting the offers.
I also have an agent with a buyer who is very interested in your house, but they think it is priced too high. These folks are being relocated to Atlanta, and are returning to continue their house hunt on Tuesday. I am asking you to consider reducing the price of your home to 289000 to make it more competitive in the market. The other listing I have down the street just reduced from 287 to 282K.
It is 4 BR 2 1/2 Ba. I’ve been showing alot of properties myself in different parts of the metro area, and there are so many houses on the market right now everywhere–prices are not what they were a year ago.
I am forwarding over the active listings in HM from 275-325K for you to review.
If you do decide to reduce the price, I will need an e-mail authorizing the reduction from you and John. It is your decision, but the market is really full right now. We are getting good traffic though! Just let me know what you want to do.
Thanks,
XXXX
Please click on the link(s) below to view property information

Comment by eastcoaster
2007-05-29 13:07:21

I overheard a realtor this weekend lamenting that she’s only closed on 2 homes so far this year. Yet, my area is supposedly unaffected by the madness of the past few years (per the local realtors)? Ha!

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-05-29 14:23:22

Send her an email authorizing her to drop the price to $159,000.

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-05-29 14:28:09

LOL

 
Comment by OC_Stomp
2007-05-29 14:32:23

I thought about that - but decided possible legal ramifications weren’t worth the momentary glee I’d get from doing that.

Comment by cami
2007-05-29 16:27:20

You could always send the email with a low price, but then follow up saying that she sent it the wrong address. If you don’t follow up do you think there’s a chance that YYYY and John won’t find out that they need to reduce their price? Have you gotten any other emails?

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Comment by Les Pendens
2007-05-29 12:57:33

“Real estate broker Craig Barnett added that the average sale price is being hurt by the record number of foreclosures. ‘The houses that are foreclosed on are stigmatized, they sell for less than they’re worth for the most part,’ he said.”

Uhh….No, dumbass.

A foreclosure sale usually indicates what the house is worth.

As in right now. In todays market…..not yesterdays market, not tomorrows market….TODAYS MARKET.

It is irritating to see these uneducated Realtor(tm) asshats make such statements. They are not the Deciders Of The Market.

Buyers, ultimately, decide value.

Don’t confuse Value with Price. They are two totally different things. Just ask Warren Buffett.

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-05-29 15:18:07

“…A foreclosure sale usually indicates what the house is worth…”

Expand on this… It may be that you are just as uneducated as the Realtor.

Comment by Pete
2007-05-29 15:31:01

In other words, a foreclosure will and should sell for less than a comparable non-foreclosure since there are many more issues involved with buying a foreclosed property. Foreclosees generally don’t take care of a house that is about to be taken from them, and there are more possibilities for liens to crop up.

In short, its a greater hassle and buyers expect the price to reflect that. This realtor seems clueless to these issues.

Comment by Peter T
2007-05-29 15:36:17

But are these (valid) points still valid for a REO sale? The bank won’t renovate but stop the worst decay and will clear the liens on the house.

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Comment by GetStucco
2007-05-29 12:58:45

“‘I’ve been saying to everybody who will listen, if you have your house on the market and your realtor tells you to update the living room carpeting, or stage it…then you should do that,’ says Dorfman. ‘And if you need to reduce the price today $10,000 to $20,000, it’s far better to reduce it 10 or 20 than in six months having to reduce it 70 [thousand] or 80 [thousand].’”

Stage it, yes. Not so sure you will get back 100% of the cost of updating the living room carpet, though… what if the buyer who would otherwise love to own your home (at a reasonable price) absolutely hates the color you choose?

Better to leave the carpet update as a bargaining chip… you can always throw in an offer to pay for a carpet job (in the buyer’s chosen color) as an incentive to help close the deal.

Comment by eastcoaster
2007-05-29 13:04:19

And if you need to reduce the price today $10,000 to $20,000, it’s far better to reduce it 10 or 20 than in six months having to reduce it 70 [thousand] or 80 [thousand].

I’ll check in again in six months ;-)

Comment by Jon
2007-05-29 14:25:28

I love seeing the sub-text of fear starting to creep into the realtor’s messaging… :-)

 
 
Comment by Giacomo
2007-05-29 13:25:04

I think that different buyers look at homes in different ways. Some buyers will freak out if it looks like anything needs doing before move-in (this seems especially true of families with babies, or pregnant mothers).
My wife, on the other hand, when looking at places to buy, gets fed up if it looks like she’ll be paying a high price for someone else’s taste in “upgrades.” And she hates granite and stainless steel - it’s so “2004.”
Staging? I’d rather see an empty, clean house every time. But that’s just me.

Comment by phillygal
2007-05-29 15:59:02

And she hates granite and stainless steel - it’s so “2004.”

You heard it here first, folks.

2007-05-29 17:37:25

I heard it was so 2003. And the appliance salesman told us they were actually discontinuing stainless steel options in many model lines next year and the next.

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Comment by Eudemon
2007-05-30 09:08:33

Your wife is a smart lady.

 
 
Comment by Peter T
2007-05-29 13:30:25

> if you have your house on the market and your realtor tells you to update the living room carpeting, or stage it…then you should do that

You might not regain the cost, but the realtors gets 6% of the small gain, so do what they tell you, moron.

 
Comment by skip
2007-05-29 13:52:33

If you factor in the number of house payments you make while trying to find someone who doesn’t mind spending a quarter of million dollars for a house with dirty stained carpets, I bet you would come out ahead.

Comment by yogurt
2007-05-29 23:20:45

I wouldn’t mind at all spending a quarter mil for a house with dirty stained carpets, and spending a thou or two to get them replaced, if that quarter mil was 100x monthly rent.

Perhaps there are still some dumbasses around who would pay 50K more if the owner replaced the carpets first. Not for long.

And that goes for “staging”, too. What a joke.

 
 
 
Comment by salinasron
2007-05-29 13:15:02

“caught off guard by the slowness of the spring selling season”

This statement just reinforces how far out of touch those in the RE industry really are at this stage of the game.

2007-05-29 13:42:28

They should’ve called us, we could’ve told them. But then again it’s our fault. We’re the “negative media” that’s causing all this.

Comment by Brian in Chicago
2007-05-29 14:57:38

If this blog has the power to crash an entire national housing market they’d be stupid not to call us to find out what we plan to do next. Think of the profits they could be making by getting in early!

 
Comment by phillygal
2007-05-29 16:00:56

Yes it makes me all warm and fuzzy inside that everything is proceeding according to our Evil Master Plan.

2007-05-29 17:17:14

insert Dr Evil laugh

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Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2007-05-29 18:15:26

I’ve always wanted to get in on the ground floor of a grand and malevolent conspiracy to control the world.

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Comment by Mugsy
2007-05-29 19:26:07

Unless you’ve been to Yale , Harvard or Brown, you’re not invited. So sorry but it’s part of the “evil take over the world at all costs” society by-laws.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by OB_Tom
2007-05-29 13:42:55

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/survival/
“Over the last 12 months, home prices captured in the S&P/Case-Shiller Index dropped for the first time in 16 years, according to a survey published today.”
San Diego’s bustling, diversified economy is doing better than Detroit:
“In the current survey, San Diego came in behind Detroit, which saw price drops of 8.4 percent over the year.”

Comment by OB_Tom
2007-05-29 13:46:09

Look at this graph for the San Diego S&P/Case-Shiller Index:
http://macromarkets.com/images/san_diego_graph.jpg
It’s almost symmetrical around the top. It’s going to be interesting if prices indeed are sticky on the way down….

Comment by NOVAwatcher
2007-05-29 14:52:39

On the other hand, it would be even more interesting if it were symetrical on the way down.

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2007-05-29 13:48:27

says Dorfman. ‘And if you need to reduce the price today $10,000 to $20,000, it’s far better to reduce it 10 or 20 than in six months having to reduce it 70 [thousand] or 80 [thousand].’”

Not sure this guy thought before he spoke! If they have any buyers out there this statement may turn them off. He must have just been trying to show off his math skills for the interveiw taker.

Comment by lefantome
2007-05-29 14:25:05

That was pretty hysterical. Nice announcement as to where you think the market is headed Dorfman.

Amazing how they have no problem telling sellers the market is going to hell in a hurry (he thinks additional 50k drop in 6 months), yet turn around the next day and say it’s a great time to buy.

What a Dorfman…..

 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-05-29 14:31:11

It’s hard for me to take anyone named “Dorfman” seriously. I can’t help but think about “Kent Dorfman,” a/k/a Flounder, from Animal House. “What’s my Delta Tau Chi pledge name?”

 
 
Comment by J Schmitt
2007-05-29 13:50:03

The psychology is just starting to move out of denial almost two years after the peak. IMO, it will take a long time for prices to correct to the mean. I’m thinking a minimum of 3 years from now, probably more like 5.

Comment by joe momma
2007-05-29 13:54:10

What happens when Boomers realize their home isn’t going to bail out their lack of savings all these years?

I see a wall of sellers for many years to come.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-05-29 15:49:39

Could be right. Interesting story developing in that the peak of the bubble coincides with the start of the Boomer retirement years.

2007-05-29 17:39:45

Twas no co-inky dink.

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Comment by joe momma
2007-05-29 13:51:12

So now it is time to game the foreclosures? What is next?

Food goes on ebay? The highest bidders eat tonight? Everybody else is screwed?

When and where does this crap end?

Comment by phillygal
2007-05-29 16:04:39

The Foreclosure Seminar radio ads and junk mail is starting to crawl out of the woodwork in these parts. Designed to attract the next wave of “investors”, no doubt.

 
 
2007-05-29 13:52:43

““In the Chicago area the housing market continues to suffer from an overhang of unsold homes…”

Zip has Chicago metro inventory at 99,000+. Three months ago it was 76,000+.

Comment by Steve W
2007-05-29 14:23:22

Just curious, which inventory tracker does everyone feel is the most realistic? It seems to vary so much. Zip always seems to have the highest inventory. I guess I’m specifically comparing it to realtor or housingtrackernet

Comment by Neddie
2007-05-29 16:29:41

I like zip, the numbers are higher I believe because properties under contract are included, while realtor.com does not

 
 
Comment by Steve W
2007-05-29 14:32:08

sorry if this is a double post, but what’s the consensus on best inventory tracker? Zip always seems to be high.

 
Comment by optionedunarmed
2007-05-29 15:17:41

Plus a huge glut of inventory soon to come online due to continuing new development.

 
 
Comment by Sobay
2007-05-29 13:55:08

‘We were overheated and the market isn’t bad, but it has returned to normal,’ said Gronow

- At some point these fenderheads will confess that the market has not ‘Returned to Normal.’ What they are experiencing is simply a seasonal pause on the way down.

 
Comment by mikey
2007-05-29 13:57:41

Let the all these RE 6%er’s go HUNGRY for a while as the HomeDebters BLEED…just STAND BACK and WATCH :)

Popcorn anyone ?

 
Comment by OB_Tom
2007-05-29 14:11:24

Reuters seem to have started their own HBB photo gallery:
http://tinyurl.com/2r9fdx
This is the picture they chose for and article titled:
“Americans confident despite falling home price”

 
Comment by ed in texas
2007-05-29 14:14:39

“Glen Dorfman of the Minnesota Association of Realtors recommends that sellers “:
DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO GENERATE A COMMISSION!
Do It NOW!

 
2007-05-29 14:18:21

On May 17th I received this email from a Realtwhore (R)…

PENTHOUSE PRICE REDUCTION

My seller relocated to Wisconsin and needs to off-load his condo in Chicago. This penthouse condo is priced way below market at $249,000. Comparable condos in the area are listed between $289,000- $309,000. He’s looking for the best offer by May 22nd! That’s only 5 days away!

Today I received this email for the same condo 6 days after the supposed final offer date…

PRICE LOWERED FOR THE LAST TIME!!!

Seller has relocated and needs to off-load! LAST WEEK ON THE MARKET AND WILL CONSIDER ALL OFFERS!!! 2 year old pentouse features: 42″ maple cabinets, granite counters, sky lights, in-unit laundry, hardwood floors throughout, large deck with skyline view and owned-secured parking. 2 minutes to United Center

Thing is, it’s still priced at $249,000. Where’s the lowered price?!

2007-05-29 14:35:21

Here’s the listing…

http://tinyurl.com/27xlco

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-05-29 15:23:37

Are you kidding me… 250k for that? Chicago is worse than L.A.. How did they even fit a 2 bedroom / 2 bath condo in such a small building… Wow

Comment by will
2007-05-30 05:29:21

Cinder block and cheap wood siding so many of these places are just craptastic.

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Comment by Steve W
2007-05-29 14:39:12

Apparently it already was lowered for the last time the first time ;)

I’m sure it’s a nice modern condo, and yes, the neighborhood is a bit (only a bit) better than it had been, but I don’t want to live anywhere that close to the united center. the west side is still a scary, crime infested place.

Comment by Steve W
2007-05-29 14:42:27

just saw the link to where the condo is, it is NOT in the new gentrifying area by the united center, it is smack dab in west side Gehenna. Warren and Sacramento? Your life expectancy decreases about 30 years moving to that area.

2007-05-29 14:45:46

Yeah, it’s at least 12 blocks WEST of the UC. Very dicey!

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Comment by RoundSparrow
2007-05-29 14:55:35

Year Built: 2005 — says it all right there. Seller is a flipper, wonder if he ever even lived in it? Probaby $249 is what he has in it.

2007-05-29 14:58:52

I found records for two units at that address both sold in March of 2005. One sold 3/16/05 for $229,000. The other sold 3/29/05 for $210,000. I’m not sure which one this listing is.

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Comment by FED Up
2007-05-29 16:47:28

Did a little more searching & it looks like unit 3 (for sale) was the one that sold for $229,000. Yikes - looks like the other unit sold for $269,000.

 
 
Comment by Brian in Chicago
2007-05-29 15:02:51

Seller probably relocated to Wisconsin in 2004. No way someone living in Chicago buys a condo there for $250k. That whole building is worth $350k max.

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2007-05-29 15:42:13

I wouldn’t pay $210,000 for the place right now. I can’t imagine it being worth more than $150,000.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Pete
2007-05-29 15:18:07

OOh, 42″ maple cabinets and granite, you can’t get that just anywhere now can you? Oh wait.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-05-29 15:54:39

“PRICE LOWERED FOR THE LAST TIME!!!”

Is that a threat? or else what?

 
2007-05-29 16:00:38

Here’s the listing on Zip…

http://tinyurl.com/yvla7s

It has already been dropped from $285K to $249K over the last four weeks and they still can’t get an offer.

 
 
Comment by Casa$Loco
2007-05-29 14:24:17

Subprime loan crisis is hitting Vallejo hard
Report predicts nearly 1 in 4 will end in foreclosure

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/05/29/BUGCGQ1S9V1.DTL

1 in 4 will end up in foreclosure? Unbelievable!

Comment by RoundSparrow
2007-05-29 15:08:01

Tarnished credit and a possible tax bill are serious consequences, but they are not the same as actually losing money. Defaulting homeowners who bought recently, did not make down payments and paid only minimal monthly payments to start are not faced with losing hard-earned savings. Some people might compare their situation to renters — with the added twist that once foreclosure proceedings start, they generally can continue to live in their homes without making any payments until the lender evicts them, which can take many months.

War on savers, right there. So how can you “keep” your savings when you forclose?

2007-05-29 17:37:59

You only lose your dignity and a decent credit rating for the next 7 years.

Comment by Pete
2007-05-29 21:18:05

Most of these people never had dignity or a decent credit rating to begin with, so they’re not losing much.

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Comment by Duane Lapinski
2007-05-29 14:33:10

I can’t believe it, people talking sense on public radio. Even a realtor like Glen Dorfman, saying to accept the market as is. I am shocked! shocked! he didn’t say the market was going to recover soon, like I would expect from most realtors.

 
Comment by MrBubble
2007-05-29 15:04:32

“‘A lot of people are getting closing costs paid for; a lot of the issues are being taken care of by the sellers,’ said Powell agent Chris Anderson. ‘We need these people to pull the trigger. They see no urgency, because it’s a buyer’s market right now.’”

Is that a trigger pull to the foot or the brain? “Di di mao!!” “No! Three bullets!”

We know that you urgently need to gas up the Lexus that you drove me around in in 2003…

 
Comment by ShaunT79
2007-05-29 15:56:34

Does anyone offer stated-income car loans? If not, but you can buy a 1M dollar house with one, that shows just how far out-of-whack the lending system is today.

 
Comment by Blackbox
2007-05-29 16:13:55

“‘Right now we’re in a frightening time of flat and declining market values, so why not cut losses?’ says Dorfman.”

He just can’t get himself to say just “declining market” he has to throw in the “flat” part into it.

Did you ever hear a real estate guy in the boom years say “Flat or Skyrocketing price market”?
Geez

 
Comment by bozonian
2007-05-29 22:13:51

I went “open housing” here in my little Southern California village of Running Springs in the mountains near San Bernardino. This was the Sunday before Memorial Day. Some of the open house sitters told us we were the only ones to show up and it was 2pm already. Not a good sign.

I’m hoping this is the last gasp before reality sinks in but I doubt it.

 
Comment by az_owner
2007-05-30 09:21:21

“After years of a housing boom in Minnesota, Zola Thompson wasn’t expecting a soft real estate market when it came time for her to sell.”

“‘I kept seeing this thing going lower and lower, and I really would like to get as much as we can out of it because we’re going to be living on some of this in our old age, and I just wanted to get as much as we could,’ says Thompson.”

So another (probable) boomer didin’t save any money and now wants a Gen X or Y to overpay for her house so she can live off the proceeds in her old age. What about the financial impact of overpaying on the new owner? Oh, that’s not important to her, she just wants as much as she can get from them.

The fable of the Grasshopper and the Ants is going to play out for real as millions of boomers realize they haven’t saved any food and winter is approaching fast. Gen X ants are not going to open the door and share.

 
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