Buyers Don’t Want To Purchase In A Declining Market
The Hook reports from Virginia. “‘Under Assessment!’ ‘Bargain in the city!’ ‘Best deal out there!’ Welcome to the new reality of moving real estate in Charlottesville. In one recent instance, desperate sellers, trying to unload a Belmont property they purchased two years ago, are asking only slightly more than they paid, and sweetening the pot with the offer of a week-long Hawaiian vacation.”
“Is it panic time for sellers, or are fears of a housing collapse misplaced? ‘There’s an awful lot of inventory,’ says real estate agent Jim Duncan. Indeed, at the end of April, more than 1,100 properties were listed on the market in Charlottesville and Albemarle. By May 29, the number had soared to over 1,400. That’s about 600 more than at the same time in the hot market of 2005.”
“Making the picture even darker for sellers: average days on market in April was 120, up from just 66 days in April 2005, when sales were blazing. More than twice the inventory, and nearly twice as long to sell it.”
“‘Sellers are still stuck back in the market of 2004 and 2005 with expectations,’ says Duncan. And for some homeowners, there’s another problem, they may not even get their money back.”
“‘There are people who paid at the height of the frenzy,’ says Duncan, ‘and are now negotiating from a position of what they need to make rather than what the market dictates.’”
“‘It’s frustrating,’ Duncan says, ‘to advise sellers that sometimes there’s nothing they can do but wait.’”
“There are other signs that things aren’t as rosy as they used to be. As the Daily Progress noted in a Saturday, May 26 article, foreclosures advertised in that paper have increased by 27 percent in the past year.”
“‘We have noticed that the sales are coming in below the 2007 assessments,’ says Roosevelt Barber, the city’s assessor. ‘If this continues, then we will make adjustments downward.’”
The Morning Call from Pennsylvania. “According to statistics from the Lehigh Valley Association of Realtors, the number of homes sold has fallen for the past 11 months, while the number of homes for sale has skyrocketed, the group said. The slowdown comes on the heels of a trio of blockbuster years for home appreciation and sales.”
“The slowing pace of sales in the past year has irked some homeowners who hoped to sell their houses quickly. Many suburban homes and properties that cost $250,000 or more are sitting on the market longer.”
“At a conference last month at Lehigh University, area real estate agents said inventory continues to rise because some homeowners are trying to sell their houses while prices are still on the rise. At the same time, buyers are taking longer to purchase homes. With a large number of homes for sale, buyers don’t need to rush.”
“‘The buyers don’t want to purchase in a declining market so there are a lot of buyers on the fence waiting,’ said Loren Keim, who owns Century 21 Keim Realty in Allentown.”
The North East Reporter from Maryland. “Sharon Blough, manager of the Perry Hall office of Long and Foster Real Estate, (said) that there are more foreclosures this year than in the recent past, particularly the span from 2002 to mid -2006, a period of real estate boom with house values going up dramatically, and often doubling.”
“Veteran agent Joseph Banick said he has noted more clients telling him they could no longer afford their homes and needed to sell. Banick said they were often young couples under 35 living beyond their means and discovering that the ‘well has run dry.’”
“During the 2002-2006 boom years, as house values kept escalating, home owners could easily refinance, since rising appraisals gave their properties more equity than they had paid in. But in mid-2006, the merry-go-round stopped whirling.”
“‘Many clients assumed the boom would keep going. But we (professionals) know from history that they never do. They always end,’ said Sherrie Brandquist, a housing counselor.”
“Some home appraisals are going down, and those homeowners find themselves with a house worth less than the amount they owe on the mortgage. This situation is called ‘negative equity.’ It means there is no escape for the cash-strapped homeowner.”
“Brandquist said the boom times also encouraged a few lenders to make loans that would not pass muster today.”
The News Journal from Delaware. “Foreclosure filings in Delaware are soaring toward record highs and are likely to keep increasing into 2008, state banking officials say.”
“Foreclosure filings in all three counties stand at 2,395 so far for fiscal year 2007, already topping last year’s total of 2,228, according to Superior Court records in each county.”
“‘At this juncture, each county is projected to break a record this year, and Sussex has already broken’ its record, said Gerry Kelly, Delaware’s deputy bank commissioner for consumer affairs. ‘And we still have a year to go in what we see as potential growth in this problem.’”
“Gladys B. Spikes, a housing counselor in Wilmington, said her agency is working with hundreds of families who are in the foreclosure process or have already lost their homes. Calls from clients seeking to avoid foreclosure ‘have quadrupled’ in the last couple of months, she said.”
“‘Mostly what’s happening is that these exotic mortgages are coming due,’ said Spikes.”
“With 6.46 percent of subprime loans in Delaware showing up as 90 days late or more during the last quarter of 2006, the news on foreclosures is not likely to improve anytime soon.”
“‘That’s your ghost of Christmas future,’ said Ira Goldstein, policy director for the Reinvestment Fund. ‘The 90 days or more delinquent are certainly likely to go into foreclosure. So to me, it means that there are a bunch of these things that are going to hit Delawareans. From a state perspective, you have to be concerned.’”
From CBS 3 on New Jersey. “A cooling real estate market has lead to a tremendous amount of home foreclosures at the Jersey shore. Home foreclosures at the Jersey shore are up 110-percent over last year.”
“‘I think it’s very similar to the dot.com boom,’ Steve Brasslett, CEO of Ivy League mortgage said.”
“‘Every deal was a record breaker and then the market became saturated. Eventually it dropped and the door closed. Investors couldn’t sell homes for what they bought them for, so they were unable and had no intention of making mortgage payments,’ said Brasslett.”
“Mortgage brokers say homes of all shapes, sizes and prices are going into foreclosure. A brand new two-story home in Ocean City is up for foreclosure because more than half a million dollars was owed to the bank.”
“A unit at Flagship Condos in Ocean City went back to the bank Wednesday at a Cape May County sheriff’s sale. ‘The bank didn’t want to buy it back, but they have taken it back through foreclosure action,’ foreclosure specialist, Adam Palmisciano said.”
Banick said they were often young couples under 35 living beyond their means and discovering that the ‘well has run dry.’”
“During the 2002-2006 boom years, as house values kept escalating, home owners could easily refinance, since rising appraisals gave their properties more equity blah blah.
Plan A - The new budgeting strategy is to hope for miracle money from a booming market.
Plan B - Win Lottery
And, along the same lines….“‘It’s frustrating,’ Duncan says, ‘to advise sellers that sometimes there’s nothing they can do but wait.’”
Bad, bad advice. Close your eyes, click your ruby slippers together and everything will turn out OK. Neither realtors nor sellers (those we read about, at least) seem to be grown up enough to deal with reality.
I heard it over and over again in Jersey last week. “You just have to be patient.” I was afraid I might get lynched if I stated the obvious and said, “you just need to lower the damn price.”
Classic example of listening to the same dolts who were busy helping them get in over their heads to begin with.
No kidding. It never ceases to amaze me that the cretins are still listening to the “experts” who led them down the primrose path. Time may heal all wounds, but it ain’t going to help greedhead sellers get their wish price.
I’m eagerly waiting for the tipping point when all the greedheads who pulled their homes off the market to wait for better days ahead, realize instead they better get what they can, while they can, and a huge overhang of supply gets dumped onto the market at firesale prices.
Can anyone recommend a good popcorn-maker stock?
I don’t think that will ever happen. If a scuba diving homeowner can afford to keep the house, by putting the wife and kids to work if necessary, he will. Very few will sell for a loss. Most will have the houses taken back by the bank.
It’s just the way most everyone handles an asset that has dipped below profitability. EVENTUALLY it’s going to go up in value so holding is a viable option.
Builders however may just adjust their companies to lower the cost of making the house, thus, they’ll be able to afford to drop the retail price and that’s where the undercut will come from.
I wonder how many businesses of the self employed, were kept afloat during these years with added money from homes propping up their money to operate? I guess we will see in the coming 12-24 months.
I know someone who took 300k equity loan on house to open a booty salon. Now she aint a hair dresser but is the owner.
However lots of these and other ‘bored housewife’ businesses will flop in the coming recession and then more foreclosures will be piled up.
For example there is a shop in the strip mall that helps you redecorate childrens bedrooms. Small niche. I didnt know it was a niche till I saw it! I dont think it will last.
I have often said that if I were a business owner and/or CEO and overheard an employee mentioning that they purchased an item from a store such as Pottery Barn for Kids, I would fire them on the spot.
I know your comment was made in jest, but why? When we buy a house, I plan to furnish our boys’ room with stuff from Pottery Barn Kids or a store just like it.
There are several reasons for this. First, I love my kids and want them to have stuff that is well-made. This doesn’t mean that I spoil them, as that will only turn them into conceited little monsters, but it does mean that when I buy stuff for my kids, I spend a little more so that they can have something nice.
I realize that there is a fine line between “getting your kids something nice” and “turning them into spoiled little monsters,” but thus far I think I’ve managed to avoid crossing the line.
Please also note that there is a big difference between consumerism and buying your kids stuff that is built to last. My kids are still young, but I still hardly ever allow them to watch television because I do not want them indoctrinated into the consumer culture. However, when I need to buy clothes, shoes, or a stroller, I buy pretty expensive stuff.
Second, I grew up without any money, and let me tell you — it sucked. If you buy your kids stuff from Wal-Mart when you can afford better, all you are doing is subjecting your kids to pointless teasing and harassment. Kids get teased ENOUGH as it is, and there is no reason to exxacerbate that problem by dressing them in cheap, unfashionable clothes. This is not to say that you should dress your kids in the latest P-Diddy fashions, but there is no reason to dress them poorly if it isn’t necessary. If Wal-Mart is all you can afford, that’s no problem, you are doing the best you can and your kids will understand that.
Finally, there are far worse things to spend money on than your children. How many people do we know who spend lavishly on themselves, buying McMansions, Mercedes-Benzes, etc., but would never dream of taking their kids on vacation with them?
I must disagree. If I had it to do over, I’d raise my daughter on a ranch/farm with lots of hard work and scrappy clothes and doing without. Funny how buying them nice stuff makes them feel entitled, no matter what you may think, and it’s always those of us who grew up poor who rationalize not raising our kids the same way (within reason). Appreciation goes a long way, and you can’t appreciate what you have if you don’t know how it feels to not have it. You’d be much wiser to scrimp on their behalf and put the money into savings for them for when they’re older (college, house, etc.). Just my humble opinion, but I have walked that road. My daughter still thinks I should buy her stuff, and she makes way more than I do! (and she’s 28.)
Plan A - The new budgeting strategy is to hope for miracle money from a booming market.
Plan B - Win Lottery
Plan C-Hope parents die early.
Plan D - don’t bother with a plan, be passive and hope for the best, it’s the American way…
There’s hardly anything in the inheritance pipeline either. Many folks are on the die broke path.
Well as they say, you can’t take it with you… might as well enjoy it in this lifetime.
The increasing problem is that many will run out of money before they run out of lifetime.
Jack Kevorkian can help with that. They let him out just in time to get in on the game.
Plan A - The new budgeting strategy is to hope for miracle money from a booming market.
Plan B - Win Lottery
Plan C - Put wifey on street corner.
“‘I think it’s very similar to the dot.com boom,’ Steve Brasslett, CEO of Ivy League mortgage said.
‘Every deal was a record breaker and then the market became saturated. Eventually it dropped and the door closed. Investors couldn’t sell homes for what they bought them for, so they were unable and had no intention of making mortgage payments,’ said Brasslett.”
Earlier this morning I was contemplating similarities and differences of the housing bust from the dot.com collapse. The fundamentals are certainly very similar — investers buying assets with carrying costs in excess of cash flow in order to capture anticipated continued unprecedentedly-high rates of future capital gains — but quite different from a news reporting standpoint.
Everyone knew the gig was up with the dot.com stock collapse, thanks to up-to-the-minute stock price data available from diverse media outlets. By comparison, it is fairly easy for the local paper to bury the news that the S&P / Case-Shiller housing price index shows area housing prices on the decline (-6% YOY for San Diego from 2006Q1-2007Q1) in the bowels of the business section under a buyline about strong consumer confidence. And there is also a huge difference in financial sophistication between stock market investors with sufficient clout to move the market (well-informed insiders) versus homeowners (much less financially informed).
Consequently, I believe it will take years for the housing market to correct to normalcy, as many participants in the housing market are not even aware we are in a bust yet.
The biggest difference is the number of participants and the eventual impact on society. Almost everyone is a participant, those who bought 2001-2007, even those who didn’t buy are affected by not being able to reasonably afford a house. Remember, this is world-wide phenomenom.
The impact on society is not clear yet, but already you can see the divisions between those who bought pre-boom (and actually have a chance to pay down a house) and those who bought during the boom. The quailty of life between those two are pretty astounding (assuming one didn’t use the HELOC ATM).
Close; phenomenon.
“The quailty of life between those two…”
Another quality-of-life schism for which we can thank the bubble price run up is between recent arrivals to bubble zones versus long-term residents. In coastal CA, the long-term denizens are still feeling quite house proud, while I currently see many recent arrivals throwing in the towel and moving inland to more affordably-priced locations in flyover country as they finally conclude they have been priced out forever. No problem, I suppose, so long as an army of new arrivals continues to move northwards across the Mexican border.
You might as well count me in that category along with many of my friends….(most engineers). We’re looking at this and saying “screw paying $1650 a month rent on a two bedroom aparment, I can pay that much and get a huge house in many, many places. The beach isn’t worth that much.” Of course, those that I work with who bought in the mid-90’s don’t understand where we are coming from (with their mortgage payment on their “appraised $750,000″ house less than what I pay in rent.).
I’ll be looking by next May. I have stock options that need to finished being completely vested in.
This is the problem I face in DC. Moved here in 2005 and, despite making upwards of 100K, I cannot afford anything that is even remotely decent. If things do not change significantly in the next few years, I will leave.
“The local paper buring the news”. All our local paper does is bury bad news. The Bozeman Daily Chonicle has been “very judicious” about what stories they print about the collapse of the housing market. They printed one story about Las Vegas and anouther from Boston, both about sepulators getting burned. I have yet read anything about Boise Idaho which is just south of here, or about foreclosures in Denver or Minneapolis. Worse, nothing about California. The rise in housing prices in Montana was very dependent on people being able to move equidy out California into Montana. There is no way the local economy can support $200-500,000 homes like it has if the California market tanks.
“Worse, nothing about California.”
I guess it is the job of blog posters to keep the reporting on the California housing alive.
One tidbit I saw two days ago that made my mouth drop open: 40% of all subprime lending has taken place in California. Since we only have 11.7% (35m/300m) of the nation’s population, this means the prevalence of subprime lending out here is roughly four times the overall national average.
I guess this helps explain why nobody except for CEOs, trust fund babies and strawberry pickers earning $15,000 a year can afford to buy homes here?
Yes you should see the foreclosures in Oxnard, CA (barrio) its ASTOUNDING.
No doubt ox is a subprime playground. Stated income, stated SSN, stated FICO, Stated citizenship. 100% financing, NINJA loans.
I hear ya Duane,
The California equity firehose is all thats fueling prices like that in Bozeman. One thing working in your favor is the climate. A good thing about Californians is that they don’t like bad weather. So, when prices fall at home, they will look at each other over their cabernet and say, “Bozeman? I think I really meant Cambria.” I am sure after the last winter in Colorado, some u-hauls will be rolling back West.
You mean like “have heard about the latest California wine? When is it going to quit snowing!”
Ryan homes just sent me a flier for their June 9th sale in Albemarle County and Charlottesville. It says to be there at 11:00 am and “incentives will be announced”. It said they “expect a high turnout, so don’t miss this chance!”. Oh brother.
They’re about the only large builder in that area. NVR (their parent company) was downgraded this week by BoA.
I think a lot of people are looking for more than tract homes in that area, except for retirees from NOVA.
Heh…I got that one yesterday too…at the rental house I just moved out of. We’ve been told for years that we are ‘recession proof’ here, but the values got up over %25 over-valued. This is a long overdue correction.
Nothing is moving in Chandler, AZ. Houses have been sitting for years now. The party is over, time to nurse the hangover.
Far be it from me to criticize anyone’s blog handle, but why aren’t you CasaSLoca ?
LOL - reminds me of a street near the golf course in Moab, Utah - Camina Arroyo or some such nonsense…
As a fluent Spanish speaker I used to get a lick out of fabricated pseudo Spanish street names in San Diego.
Oops, that should be “kick” not “lick”.
LOL. Kick or lick, dude, whatever floats your boat!
Recently we had friends from the UK come and visit. They got a kick out of all the cheesy faux-Tudor manors and pretentious “English” street names in the crapbox developments in our fair city (Colorado Springs).
I spoke with a business neighbor yesterday, a small, independent R.E. agent and asked how this is affecting him.
He said it’s going to be a “year’s vacation” for him. That’s how long he figures it will take for the majority of sellers to wake up to realistic prices.
He’s just going to hang on till then, not really expecting to cover his costs.
That’s the way I feel right now too. I’m “on vacation” until this BS market turns over.
Same here. I can afford to wait until the greedheads have caved.
In the past five years, Lehigh Valley home prices have risen a total of 67 percent, OFHEO said. Low interest rates for mortgages have brought many first-time buyers into the local housing market, while affluent newcomers fleeing high prices in New York and New Jersey have pushed up the average cost of a home in the Lehigh Valley.
The stream of affluent NYers and NJ re-los must have slowed to a trickle, since no one is buying homes any more. I have to wonder how many of the NYC metro area refugees will hightail it home when prices are more affordable in their own neck of the woods.
And if they still work in NYC, gasoline prices are taking a bigger bite. What does gas cost in PA and NJ these days?
NJ still just under $3
And you don’t have to pump it yourself.
In SE PA it’s around $3.05-.10. In Phila. it’s more.
Bill-
Heard it on the radio a couple of days back - Michigan has the dubious honor of having the highest gas prices in the nation. It was 3.40 as I drove by the stations this morning.
hate to upset the media, but here in Glenwood Springs, Colorado (near Aspen) it’s 3.52 today
$3.57 a gallon Crescent City, Calif.
Here on Maui regular is $3.69.
lots in the Poke- your- nose going for $1k on ebay
I’m in the Valley and know many NJ/NYers who bought houses as ‘weekend homes’. These are just regular homes in regular towns/subdivisions. Recently, at a few of these, I’ve noticed they stopped coming down on the weekends and the grass isn’t cut…
“I have to wonder how many of the NYC metro area refugees will hightail it home when prices are more affordable in their own neck of the woods.”
I was wondering that too Phillygal. In tough times, sometimes you just want to be home.
Isn’t that the truth, CarrieAnn. I’ve really felt the pull of family in recent years, especially since having kids. If things really go pear-shaped on a national level, a lot of people are going to feel instincts that haven’t quite been educated out of them, like a desire to circle the wagons along with their blood relatives and family members.
“Making the picture even darker for sellers: average days on market in April was 120, up from just 66 days in April 2005, when sales were blazing. More than twice the inventory, and nearly twice as long to sell it.”
Doesn’t this mean that the average number of homes sold per day is still about the same? I don’t think that the situation is bad yet.
“‘We have noticed that the sales are coming in below the 2007 assessments,’ says Roosevelt Barber, the city’s assessor. ‘If this continues, then we will make adjustments downward.’”
… and raise the property tax rate. This is a common trick in MA because the town officials need more [total] revenue each year.
“‘The buyers don’t want to purchase in a declining market so there are a lot of buyers on the fence waiting,’ said Loren Keim, who owns Century 21 Keim Realty in Allentown.”
But there are plenty of GF buyers who have bought in Feb/Mar/Apr in my area (southshore MA) and seen their property values decline according to Zestimate. I hate these fellows, they have no patience. A total buyer revolt (= no buying unless the property is available at 1999-2000 price) is what is needed.
“I hate these fellows, they have no patience.”
You should thank anyone who buys now for helping to screw up the comps.
“Is it panic time for sellers, or are fears of a housing collapse misplaced? ‘There’s an awful lot of inventory,’ says real estate agent Jim Duncan
Yes if you are a seller it’s panic time without a shadow of doubt because today’s prices are going to look real strong compared to what will happen over the next two or three years as foreclosures continue to skyrocket. Sell now don’t what as this market continues to collapse and the bubble deflates. Let the fire sales begin……….
I don’t think so, the stupid are sitting and listening to the cheerleaders in the RA or NAR or MSM. The smart money says panic time is going to be when the Sheriff is knocking on their door with the nail and the sign and the proverbial gun butt. People with a clue are lowering prices and getting out now nice and calm, the panic is coming because people trusted the media and the RA or the NAR.
I really found that disturbing. Shouldn’t the Sherif use a hammer.
You could have a really bad acident with a gun used as a hammer not to mention its a 500$ piece of taxpayer equipment.
That is so stupid.
Here’s an idea: Let’s deputize all the sign-flippers and use them to evict the FBs. Then the Sheriff could do what he does best: man speed traps.
Nathan, I agree the panic/puckering process is underway.
Ben, Stucco, any other quantitatively-minded folks..A request. Has anyone looked at the anatomy of past busts to see precisely when the price declines are most rapid?
Right now it seems that we have alread had a~10% drop in most places, but that is trivial compared to the recent run up.
We know that foreclosures are increasing exponentially (perhaps to become logistic as they plateau), but when to the fire sales start? At what point do we see the plummet? I predicted fall 07 yesterday, but I wonder if anyone could provide a more quantitative estimate based on past bubble collapses? When specifically do these foreclosures nuke the market?
Considering that many of these no doc no down etc etc mortgages were not around….I think that we are traveling into uncharted waters and previous exp would not be applicable. Let’s just say bad or or worse.
I talked to a friend who has done pretty well in the housing biz, not really a flipper just buying places to live and then moving up only twice he has done this. Then he bought a couple properties in NV to rent out in a retirement community and he has done that as well. He is driven to retire at 50 and believes he is on his way, and I do believe he will he is very driven and has a great job and many investments. However….I talked to him last night and he almost freaked out when I started talking about housing. He scoffed and said….like others…the MOST the real estate in Southern Cal will slide outside the Inland Empire would be max 20%.
I asked him how are these housing going to move? I mean new lending standards take a ton of flip tards and broke bad credit morons out of the buying pool. And the numbers on houses listed grow every month, either from foreclosures or the seller scramble or whatever…they keep climbing and the buyer pool keeps shrinking. And the traditional appreciation would be 100s of thousands cheaper than where it is now, as if the bubble was a realistic healthy rise in value commensurate with traditional values of YOY appreciation. And 20% is the most it will slide….umm with an ocean view maybe, on a golf course maybe, on a park or a lake maybe…but 30-40 year old cookie cutter houses in any neighborhood USA?
We got off the subject and talked about poker and pool and girls, he is still believing what he believes, because he has to I guess….reality is going to come to roost though, no way to dodge this bullet, it is scary when you think about how much of a real impact this will eventually have.
The bankers are going to LOVE this guy (other investments) when he eventually is forced to liquidate his RE mistakes and cover. Hope he doesn’t mind re-adjusting his retirement horizon.
“He scoffed and said….like others…the MOST the real estate in Southern Cal will slide outside the Inland Empire would be max 20%. ”
Let me guess, six months ago he was predicting, at worst, flat prices for a year. Fast forward six months and I’m sure he’ll have a revised prediction. I have had a very similar experience with a realtor I know.
Friedman Units applied to the housing market…
Well, at least he was at 20% the real kool aid drinkers I know in the mortgage business told me -10%. I just shrugged my shoulders and walked away, as they floated away on a cloud of fairy dust to the magical place where housing never declines and the roads are paved with gum drops.
So weird reading these slowing market stories when I drive down the street and see SOLD signs everywhere. I don’t know if people are coming home from the bubble areas or if people are downsizing. Ultra expensive ($700k to $1mil) homes are more likely to be sitting the last few months. ($300k to $400k probably the top moving price point)
Even homes that sat all last year…the old decrepit one, the 2-family that backs up to the college physical fitness center, the historic 5000 sq footer….all sporting sold signs. Inventory is the same as it was in January/February as more are coming on. (currently about 100 for a town of 2900 households as per foreclosuredotcom. 71% owned)
I think many of the new listings are coming on high but those don’t necessarily move quickly. Still there are plenty of homes moving w/in days.
I live near and travel thru the village and wonder if people are looking to move closer in. I gotta take a ride around the outskirts and see what’s going on out there. The town down the hill (closer to city, jobs) has an awful lot of listings in the “recently reduced” re section….but then again they did allow a lot more new and expensive building. This town is 10 miles away but in a different county. Its taxes are significantly lower. Perhaps that fact is being discovered. (though they still gotta cough up the extra gasoline for the commute)
Lots of sales in a short time frame in the same area at last year’s asking price is a sure sign of a cash-back fraud ring. Not saying this is the case, but don’t underestimate how many of 2006 sales were outright fraud and not just greater fools.
So weird reading these slowing market stories when I drive down the street and see SOLD signs everywhere. I don’t know if people are coming home from the bubble areas or if people are downsizing. Ultra expensive ($700k to $1mil)
I feel ya. I see this happening on my street where 2 of these ugly houses that are way over priced (imo) sold. Trouble is 6 months later, they are both in foreclosure. No kidding. On one of them, not a single payment was made judging by the closing date and the auction date.
You’re darned right I’m sitting on the fence!
This is probably a dumb question, but could someone tell me if the vacations, cars, and all the other similar ridiculous sales incentives are taxable? Seems like they should be.
They are part of the house, as they are financed on the mortgage loan as part of the purchase price.
WTF? Who in their right mind would take out a 30-year mortgage that includes the bundled cost of a depreciating asset like a car or a one-week event like a vacation, instead of simply demanding a comparable discount on the sale price? Our economy is screwed.
People paying for short-term assets with HELOCs and refi’s for years — this is no different. At this point, I am no longer surprised by people’s stupidity when it comes to home financing.
“and sweetening the pot with the offer of a week-long Hawaiian vacation.”
That’s soooo 2006.
How can I afford to go on a nice long vacation with huge debt to repay? I know. 3/1 ARM loan! Hurray!
pay down a hawaiian vacation with a 30 year loan?
Nah, just lower the price, and I save of property taxes too!
But but but that’s SO 1950ish…
I went to the FDIC website today to check up on my bank (Chevy Chase Bank of McLean, VA, which is a large regional bank with $14.3 Billion in assets).
Non current loans and leases (line Item 31) went from $21.2 Billion in March 2006 to $37.35 Billion in March 2007, approx. 75% increase in one year.
The FDIC defines non current loans and leases as “Assets past due 90 days or more, plus assets placed in nonaccrual status”
Sorry, those non current loan amounts should read Millions, not Billions.
“Non current loans and leases (line Item 31) went from $21.2 Billion in March 2006 to $37.35 Billion in March 2007, approx. 75% increase in one year.”
I’m guessing lots of that debt is helping to push stock prices to their near-daily new highs?
Are you suggesting that folks will go non-current on their mortgages while playing the market? Seems to me that stocks, at least those outside retirement vehicles, would be liquidated prior to going non-current on one’s debt obligations. The bankers are going to get those funds one way or another (those assets outside of retirement funds at any rate).
How do you get to these reports?
“purchased two years ago, are asking only slightly more than they paid”
Oops, they put the wrong sign on their dP/dt. Maybe the wrong magnitude as well.
“Buyers Don’t Want To Purchase In A Declining Market”
This ought to be a bumper sticker.
How about “Friends don’t let friends buy in this market.”
This could be a fun weekend topic - come up with slogans. I was tempted to make a t-shirt on cafepress using something az_lender once said on here:
Ride the decline into 2009
Keep reading Ben through 2010
Auction heaven in 2011
Congratulate ourselves in 2012
Buy (but be mean!) in 2013
With “thehousingbubbleblog.com” on the back.
See No. 2 and 3
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Labor-Butler-Home+Sales-MVTV/index/a/12990
“Some hedge funds say they are concerned that banks that both sell the derivatives contracts and handle mortgage payments could be involved in a form of market manipulation. The funds fear that banks are making concessions on the underlying mortgages to avoid making good on derivatives contracts that pay off in cases of default.”
Ha ha. This has to be the most pathetic thing I have ever heard. Talk about being sore losers. The hedge funds should just admit they were outsmarted by the banks and move on with their lives.
Anyway, I’m sure the last thing the hedge fund industry really wants is for the rules to be actually enforced.
“‘Sellers are still stuck back in the market of 2004 and 2005 with expectations,’ says Duncan. And for some homeowners, there’s another problem, they may not even get their money back.”
Oh boo hoo, since when,( other than the fake bubble prices), have homes been re sold with a profit with in a short time period of buying them?
It was always if you bought a home and had to re sell it two years later sold at a loss or with luck, same price paid.
Suck it up.
Folks, nothing says “desperation” more than a seller willing to settle for only a small profit. My god, will these crazed desperadoes stop at nothing?!? Hide the children!
The sea of denial the sellers and the lamestream media still swim in remains truly vast and deep.
wow, times have changes
Yahoo! Personal Finance
Your Home May Be Your Worst Investment
The Motley Fool
I live in hollywood, CA, and let me tell you, I’ve been seeing *so* many for sale signs up lately. I’ve been gloating to myself on my drive to and from work. I love the open houses held during the week, and my special fav is to view a for sale/for lease sign on the same house. Love to see the flippers bleed. Not that I’m bitter.
Bitter? Me neither… just saw a fireplace permit listed for sale in Telluride for $100,000 - you need one to have a wood-burning fireplace, the town’s method of keeping smoke pollution down.
H-e-double hockeysticks, I remember looking at old Victorian houses there for $12,000 (yup, 12k) in the late 60s, right when the ski area was gearing up. Reminds me of Hollywood, where it costs a fortune to just stand on such sacred ground… I can’t wait for Aspen and Telluride and all the ski towns to crash and burn, if they ever do…
I doubt they would crash and burn, slide yes but they are in a prime place. Think of it like a beach house, I doubt they will crash either, they are on the beach. This is the way it is SUPPOSE to be, there is a reason why these houses demand a higher price and are valued,….because there is a huge value in having one. Being on the Beach, in the Mountains in prime location etc…should be an expensive house. Now, let us take a closer look at Stanton, Riverside, etc.
I wound not count on ski towns not crashing. Sking has gotten so expensive it is difficult for the young to afford to get into the sport. The small inexpensive”bunny hill” type ski hills are gone, leave only the mega-buck resorts. The only way many people can afford to ski or snow-board is to have job at the ski area. If the sport of snow-boarding hadn’t been developed, a lot of ski areas would be in a world of hurt due to the declining number of skiers. Allthough snow-boarders have replaced the loss of skiers, over all you looking at a stagnant industry with no growth in the number of customers.
The thing about ski areas is that there are tons of beautiful mountain locations, it’s the panache of being in a cool town that people are buying. that panache is going downhill at a rapid rate, what used to be cool places are now filled with aging Boomers and not a whole lot of snow sometimes and too expensive. The ski areas have morphed from fun cool places to resorts where you come to show off how much money you have. It stinks. I hate them all the same (and I used to be an avid skier). Crash and burn, the sooner the better. The ski areas have ruined Colorado, not just the towns they’re in, but towns within a 100 mile radius, not to mention all the illegals they need to keep them going. They’re paragons of greed and elitism. I’m a 5th generation Coloradoan and most natives feel the same as I do.
Once the aging boomers are gone, who is going replace them on the ski slopes?
That’s why I like Loveland and A-Basin. I travel from the east coast regularly Dec-April and stay at nice hotel(s) on the western fringe of DEN metro and drive up to A-Basin and Loveland. If it were not for sometimes difficult traffic on I-70 it is a great thing.
you might enjoy Ski Sunlight out of Glenwood Spgs…used to go there a lot, still unspoiled, local place
Once the aging boomers are gone, who is going replace them on the ski slopes?
One every ski trip I make a point of giving at least one boomer a healty shove off the runs and into a tree. Makes the sky seem a little bluer, the air a little fresher.
be careful, sammy, they’re the only ones who can afford to really be there, when they’re all gone, the place is toast…LOL at that picture (boomers in the trees)
Near Bozeman, try Bridger Bowl. Locally owned and protected from becoming a Aspen or Telluride by a qurik of nature. The soil is too thin and wet to allow septict systems. So any developer is going to have to build a sewage treatment plant, which will cut deeply into profits. Since the late 1960’s an number of developer have come up with scheme after scheme for the tax-payers to build a plant. None of these schemes have worked. Another developer is at it again, but he hasn’t come up with a workable sewage system.
I actually live at a ski resort in the mountains north of San Bernardino, California. It’s REALLY beautiful up here. We bought here at the bottom a few years ago. House prices have tripled. When we bought the, “shock wave” of price escalation from the ground zero point of Los Angeles hadn’t reached here yet. So we were able to sell high in Los Angeles, and buy low up here. The price curve up here has basically followed the price curve of San Bernardino in general so I don’t think there is any benefit to being here. If a beach house or mountain house had a location premium back then, it got inflated way above that and will return to the trend I think. Zillow records show that houses bought in 2005 and sold recently are going for 15%-20% less. That’s a huge loss for the owners and we’re just getting started.
The Lehigh Valley is going to see prices back to 2001 levels soon. The Morning Call is the co-captain cheerleader for local realtors. Houses are sitting even the ones under 200k for months and not selling. I live in Emmaus and can point out at least 10 homes that are priced around 200k or under that aren’t selling. There’s some under 175k that aren’t selling. People that are stupid enough to fall for this housing bubble deserve to get screwed. No smart local would have ever paid 100% more in 5 years for a home. The morning call ran an article a few months ago saying how commuters basically stopped coming in 2006 but yet they still try and say prices are up. When row homes on Chestnut street in Emmaus that were selling for 85k in 2001 sold for 175k in 2005 anyone with a brain had to realize something was wrong. I would guess 95% of the fools who overpaid are from NJ. They travel 3-5 hours a day to work and then spend at least 8-10 hours at work. Do the math what kind of life is that. Foreclosures are up 40% in Lehigh & Northampton but the morning call doesn’t report the truth. I love the figures they print in Sunday’s paper about the % of home sold and value. Almost every week they claim positive figures. That’s a joke. The only people who actually don’t see prices falling around here are realtors and fools who bought from 2002-2006. They act like we have more job, “DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH THAT” will not pay 200k for a home. The average “LOCAL” couple averages under 75k around here. Watch as the foreclosures start pouring. Another thing is the amount of rentals from 1k-3k that’s even funnier. You can rent a nice home for under $900 a month. These people are just waiting for foreclosures and praying. I don’t think god will help this bubble. I predict prices back to 2001 levels by the end of 2008 and it might get worse. I am a lifetime local!
Thanks for that great on-the-ground report.
And when the LV’s house prices “recede” to normal, I predict you’ll see more re-los…not from the NYC metro, but from my area. I already know folks who have cashed out, sold land, whatever, and moved west - to Lancaster and around your place- just to escape the monstrous suburban sprawl that is gobbling up our once lovely region.
Holy cow Batman! It’s a letter from The Riddler!
What does it say?
Riddle me this, what’s the difference between the Titanic, and the housing bubble crash?
Answer: The Titanic found a bottom.