June 3, 2007

The Hangover Following The Homebuilding Boom

The St Petersburg Times reports from Florida. “Last year, New Tampa real estate agent Sabrina Westenbarger sensed that home buyers were disappearing. She branched into managing rental properties. Real estate investor Rob Duncan sensed the same trend. And in Pasco County, Betsy Morgan has seen accounts double in the past two years in her office in Trinity.”

“All are profiting in the hangover following the homebuilding boom. All are signing up clients who need to rent their houses, townhouses and condos because they cannot sell them in an overbuilt housing market.”

“‘Now there are more than just intentional investors,’ says Morgan, who has worked in residential property management for 23 years. ‘They’re what I call the accidental landlords. They’re not always the happiest or most knowledgeable of landlords.’”

“Yet, they collectively own a flood of homes for rent.”

“Over the past three years as the number of owner-occupied dwellings around Tampa Bay increased 5 percent, the dwellings with tenants, or needing them, rose 32 percent. In Hillsborough County, that included an increase of nearly 30, 000 properties whose owners live elsewhere.”

“‘You can get a $260,000 house for $1,200 a month,’ said Westenbarger.”

“‘Rents are trending down,’ said Lincoln Crone, president of St. Petersburg’s Alliance Property Management. ‘I think that’s more of a temporary situation. There’s a lot of competition for tenants now.’”

“As of last week, Westenbarger and her daughters were managing 15 homes with tenants, and were trying to find tenants for an additional 30 clients. Her clients fall into either of two groups: people who bought houses they can no longer afford, or investors who bought houses to sell, but can’t find buyers.”

“Many are like Kevin Schmook, of Land O’Lakes, who seized on a popular investment tactic: make a $10,000 down payment on a house, then sell it for a $30,000 to $50,000 profit a couple of years later.”

“Schmook and his wife both in the sales and marketing fields, profited hugely in 2004, when they sold their home and bought a larger one. So the next year, they invested $200,000 in a townhouse in Wesley Chapel. Early last year, they added a $320,000 house.”

“Now, the Schmooks are losing money on both and seeking a tenant for the townhouse.”

“‘A lot of owners, by the time they’ve waited six months and made the decision to rent, are already in financial distress,’ said Jeanne Gavish, former president of the Hernando County Association of Realtors, who tried renting and soon returned to sales.”

“‘You’re trying to rent it just to stop the bleeding,’ said Gary Schraut, owner of a real estate brokerage in Brooksville, who discouraged investors during the boom and avoids handling rentals now.”

“‘They want to cover their costs, but you have to tell them, ‘The market’s going to determine your rent,’ said New Tampa’s Duncan. ‘They’ll rent at a loss of $600 to $700 a month and try to figure out what to do.’”

“Meanwhile, their insurance costs and taxes are spurting up, unimpeded by any caps. The double-whammy of rising costs and sinking rents, said St. Petersburg’s Crone, ‘is starting to approach what I see as a crisis on the horizon.’”

The News Journal. “Local furniture store owner Bill Campbell’s business is tied directly to how well the real estate market is performing. And housing sales are in a prolonged slump.”

“For Campbell and many other business owners, large and small, it’s no secret Pensacola is slogging through a post-Hurricane Ivan economic slump.”

“The Escambia-Santa Rosa market is bedeviled by a record number of homes for sale, stubbornly high asking prices and property tax and insurance issues.”

“Homes are selling, especially homes priced at market, said Doug Gooch, president of the Pensacola Association of Realtors. ‘Houses priced at market are moving,’ Gooch said. ‘If the pricing is right, that’s the key.’”

“Gooch said the Pensacola area was in a housing boom before Ivan struck, and the storm damage actually accelerated the end of that boom.”

“In April 2005, when the housing market was at or near its peak, Gooch said 675 homes sold. 439 homes sold in the two-county area in March. But the current inventory of homes for sale, about 7,100, remains stubbornly high and actually has been climbing for the past several months.”

“Veteran Pensacola Realtor Alexis Bolin said the huge inventory ‘is responsible for the declining prices as we have an over supply and less demand. The only way this market is going to change is for the inventory to be depleted, which isn’t happening any time soon.’”

“Bolin said that the Pensacola area prices appear to be falling about 1 percent per month. ‘Unless the sellers get their homes priced right for this market, we are going to continue to have a depressed market,’ she said.”

“Danny Speranzo, president of Classic Home Builders, said he and his business partner are weathering the economic storm by being smart and selective about the properties they buy and develop.”

“‘We’ve been in business for 24 years, and it’s a roller coaster business with its ups and downs,’ Speranzo said, ‘but (the housing market) is as slow as I’ve ever seen it.’”

The News Press. “When the housing industry was hot, builders coaxed people with no money to borrow huge amounts to buy investment houses. Now prices are down and the people are trying to get out of their contracts while their lenders and builders are threatening to come after them legally.”

“The courts will sort out who’s legally right, but who has the moral high ground? ‘This is a classic business ethics situation,’ said Cape Coral-based ethics consultant Dawn Marie Driscoll.”

“A lot of people involved on both sides of the debate have strong opinions. ‘It’s your signature’ when an investor signs a construction loan to build a house, said Karen Quanstrom, a loan officer specializing in construction loans for SunTrust Bank’s Fort Myers branch. ‘These are things that people did to themselves because they didn’t think through the process.’”

“Besides, she said, some buyers are engaging in arguably unethical behavior themselves. For example, they instruct banks to hold off giving a builder his last payment in order to stall the completion of a house the buyer doesn’t really want to purchase.”

“As a result, Quanstrom said, ‘Now there are builders who are going to be either destroyed or financially harmed as a result of that.’”

“Lenders and real estate agents should honestly inform buyers of the risks involved, she said. ‘A few people said to me, ‘What is the worst-case scenario?’ Quanstrom said. ‘I said to them, ‘You have to be prepared for six months’ payments and no income.’ I feel obligated morally to tell them that, and I did.’”

“Some investors decided to back out because of her advice, she said, but many forged ahead despite of it.”

“Real estate agent Brett Ellis in Fort Myers said there were deals he refused to put investors in during the boom and he stopped putting people into investment home purchases when the market became too overheated in 2005.”

“What’s legally allowable isn’t always what’s in a client’s best interests, he said. ‘I can sleep at night.’”




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78 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-06-03 06:46:04

‘The Pinellas public school system is facing what could be the steepest enrollment decline in its 95-year history, a development that will prompt superintendent Clayton Wilcox to recommend closing at least a handful of schools.’

‘The only enrollment decline approaching this scale occurred from 1927 to 1930, when job losses during the Depression sent people back north in droves, according to the district’s history books. Pinellas lost more than 7,300 students during that period.’

‘Why the drop this time? Families are leaving the county or avoiding it, scared off by high home prices and rising insurance rates, officials say.’

A letter to the editor: ‘We used to live in St. Petersburg before the current price spikes. The longer I am around, the more I am amazed at the seemingly crazy decisions folks are making in regards to home ownership. One would automatically assume that the real responsibilities of a person’s fiscal situation would rest in the hands (literally) of the one that signs on the dotted line. However, this is not what is being reported. Rather, the unfortunate are to be sympathized with and those that ‘take advantage of them’ are to be chastised for offering a product too deceptively attractive to resist.’

‘I only wish that folks making good choices got as much press as those that do not.’

Another:

‘We are trying to sell a house by ourselves in Largo, priced at $165,500. The only calls we get are from Realtors, wanting us to sign a contract and sell it for us. A Realtor can’t even sell the house next door, at a similar price range. We even put a pricey three-day ad in your paper and only got Realtor calls.’

‘I have been laid off from my job of almost six years because of a downturn in the housing market. I was a superintendent for a reputable home builder here. So I can tell you how things really are. Subcontractors are dropping their prices, wanting to keep their employees working. Building material prices have dropped dramatically. At least till the next hurricane.’

Comment by Muggy
2007-06-03 07:33:56

That is absolutely huge news and not totally a surprise. Also, $165K for Largo? Girlfriend, puh-lease!

Comment by flat
2007-06-03 07:40:09

I love the traffic there- you could just use a scooter to get around

Comment by palmetto
2007-06-03 08:35:20

Pinellas traffic is horrible. I’d probably live there if it weren’t for the traffic.

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Comment by RJ
2007-06-03 09:49:33

yup. Just ride my bike. Lotsa times I beat the cars. Sooner or later the price of gasoline will have an effect.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-06-03 15:12:11

It’s atrocious. The entire county has been paved over. With the ongoing road construction, parts around US 19 have been turned into a bizarre and frightening setting that at night are worthy of a science-fiction film.

About two years ago one of the most prominent attorneys representing Pinellas developers retired. When asked if he had any regrets about the appearance of the county, he said none whatsover. He then moved to Marin County, Calif.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-06-03 15:12:13

It’s atrocious. The entire county has been paved over. With the ongoing road construction, parts around US 19 have been turned into a bizarre and frightening setting that at night are worthy of a science-fiction film.

About two years ago one of the most prominent attorneys representing Pinellas developers retired. When asked if he had any regrets about the appearance of the county, he said none whatsover. He then moved to Marin County, Calif.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-06-03 15:12:46

Sorry. Double post. Just too excited to give my two cents.

 
Comment by synthetik
2007-06-03 18:17:54

I flew over Pinellas country in a small cessna plane a few years ago. It literally is 100% paved over.

At least you can visit the 7-11 without shoes on - and not even be anywhere near the beach! now that is stylin!

 
 
 
Comment by Chip
2007-06-03 11:07:28

Largo has nice weather. And then there’s the nice weather. Did I tell you about the nice weather? As for anything TO DO, you have to go elsewhere. Nice little town, but in a nap.

 
Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-06-04 08:27:51

I just drove through that area (south of there by 4 miles) last week. Reminded me of Chevy Chase in Vacation (Blam, blam. “Roll ‘em up”). We stopped to get gas and my wife walked into use the bathroom and walked right out and said “Let’s get out of here.”

 
 
 
Comment by Jayman
2007-06-03 07:02:49

The market will set the price…what a novel idea comrade!!!

the Schmooks are losing money on both and seeking a tenant for the townhouse.” Was that the Schmucks or Schmooks???? Could not resist.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-06-03 07:30:28

Calling the Schmooks “schmucks” is an insult to all schmucks throughout the world.

 
 
Comment by JP
2007-06-03 07:03:20

“Houses priced at market are moving”

I wish this statement were more widely understood.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2007-06-03 07:19:53

But wait’ll the market price starts dropping every month at an accelerating rate. Lots of greedhead delusions are getting shattered as we speak.

 
 
Comment by auger-inn
2007-06-03 07:11:36

“Now, the Schmooks are losing money on both and seeking a tenant for the townhouse.”

Really now, it is almost like someone is making these names up! LOL

“‘Rents are trending down,’ said Lincoln Crone, president of St. Petersburg’s Alliance Property Management. ‘I think that’s more of a temporary situation. There’s a lot of competition for tenants now.’”

Let’s see, more rental housing becoming available, economy in a downturn, competition for tenants. Yeah, that sounds like a temporary situation, like 10 years temporary.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-06-03 07:39:25

The names do seem a little peculiar. I’m waiting for articles on the Dimbshot, Bottheed, Essclown and Doorkneb families.

Comment by Muggy
2007-06-03 07:48:44

Don’t forget the Bagueholdaires (they’re the foreign investors everyone keeps referring to).

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-06-03 08:04:37

“Many are like Kevin Schmook, of Land O’Lakes…”

With apologies to Boris Badenov, “Never underestimate the power of a Schmook.”

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Comment by John Law(Duke of Arkansas)
2007-06-03 09:47:01

(“‘Rents are trending down,’ said Lincoln Crone, president of St. Petersburg’s Alliance Property Management. ‘I think that’s more of a temporary situation. There’s a lot of competition for tenants now.’”)

yeah, on this blog we said that at least a year ago in response to scary headline of “rising” rents.

 
 
Comment by Incredulous
2007-06-03 07:11:58

You’d never know any of this from the radio and television ads running all day, telling us how wonderful the deals are here in “Tampa Bay.” I wonder if any of the advertisers have considered that to be IN Tampa Bay, one has to be in water, or under it.

Meanwhile, my father’s new real estate broker/Trump wannabe neighbor is building a ghastly McMansion that will not only take up the entire lot, but tower over everything else on the street–in a supposedly historic district where such things are supposed to be forbidden. Not only did this wheeler-dealer get variances allowing him to have zero lot lines, he also got variances to cut down all the grand oak trees in his yard, claiming they were threatening to fall on the neighbors’ garages. When the neighbors found out, and protested that he’d made this excuse up, the city told them the deal was already done, and to shut up. The variance board even held its meetings on his behalf in secret; when the neighbors tried to find out where and when so they could attend and make comments, they were told repeatedly no meetings had been scheduled, only to find out after the fact that they had been, and that, because NOBODY showed up with a contrary view or comment, the variance board had approved the applicant’s requests. At the same time another realtor/mortgage broker (conflict of interests?) down the street claimed he spent 750k on his house, and got variances allowing all kinds of weird crap, but when I looked up the sale, he’d only spent half as much; I don’t know if it’s a case of mortgage fraud or not. Maybe, he’s just a blowhard trying to look important.

Comment by Walker
2007-06-03 07:17:37

The variance board even held its meetings on his behalf in secret; when the neighbors tried to find out where and when so they could attend and make comments, they were told repeatedly no meetings had been scheduled, only to find out after the fact that they had been, and that, because NOBODY showed up with a contrary view or comment, the variance board had approved the applicant’s requests.

This is a common tactic by zoning boards. In my experience, realtors/developers are the most organized forces in local politics, so they typically own zoning boards.

Comment by txchick57
2007-06-03 07:19:38

If the trees haven’t been cut, they could consider a lawsuit. I would. Make the bastard pay legal fees out the wazoo. Might change his attitude.

Comment by Mike
2007-06-03 08:50:36

Puleeeze! If considering a lawsuit they had better get Bill Gates as a financial backer. These people are (A) Well connected. (B) Have enough money to fight any lawsuits.

You might just as well try starting a lawsuit against TD Waterhouse because one of your trades went belly up. I’ve watched the local people here in Thousand Oaks and Camarillo and Agoura and Westlake, ca. bitch and moan about the explosive growth in this area over the last 8 years and how it’s destroying the quality of life. Which it is.

The 101 Freeway, the most congested freeway in the US, is a joke but the building boom continues unabated with thousands and thousands of acres of some of the most fertile agricultural land in the country being swallowed up by tract housing and planned communities. I’m looking forward to the time, if it ever comes, when americans wake up and discover that only two things matters in the USA. Money and connections. If your concerned about the quality of life it only matters if you have money to pass around to the right people and the connections which will introduce you to the right people. GW being the poster boy to prove the point.

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Comment by Incredulous
2007-06-03 13:29:24

The trees have been cut. The city told the neighbors to shut up and forget it. It was all done cloak-and-dagger. Those trees, incidentally, were supposedly protected by law, but law in Tampa means nothing when bribery abounds.

There are no zero lot line structures going up anywhere else in Hyde Park, so somebody somewhere must have been nicely rewarded, not only for ignoring existing zoning laws, but for ignoring the special set of laws established for Hyde Park.

A few decades ago it was discovered that half or more of our county commissioners were crooks taking bribes; we already knew this by another building project on our street that they approved despite 100% opposition from everyone in the neighborhood. But, the authorities did not make the builder tear it down. If the FBI swooped in tomorrow and arrested this latest clown and the politicos in his pocket, I wonder if they would put a stop to the project. It’s so out-of-place as to be astounding. It also looks NOTHING like the artists conception used in official presentations (that house was not a McMansion, did not take up the lot, and did not begin on a second floor). Talk about bait-and-switch.

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Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-06-04 10:10:01

Next time you see the guy’s car, pour a bunch of “deer in heat” deer attractor down his car windows and in the grooves of his car trunk. Repeat as necessary, once should be fine.

 
 
 
 
Comment by kpom
2007-06-03 09:12:43

Not to worry - if he is building a Macmansion in Florida in 2007, he will get his reward…

Comment by uptown
2007-06-03 11:37:42

They’ll probably have to bulldoze it after it sits vacant for a year or two in the hot, humid Florida weather.

 
 
Comment by CHAZMAN
2007-06-03 12:45:56

Usally when the variances don’t make sense, it’s because there’s something that you don’t know…like $$$$ under the table. Happens all the time!

 
 
Comment by mgnyc
2007-06-03 07:18:26

good morning all

my in-laws are in florida right now looking at properties.
i have sent them the links and the articles from the hbb
so i hope they are just bored and not really buying.
my mil told my wife that they are going to see over 50
developments in less than a week!!!!!!!!!

no shortage of supply in fla huh?

and in queens ny it is the same old story
tons of homes for sale and tons of open houses
and nothing is moving. in my area there are homes
that have been on the market for over a year
with no price reduction! stubborn old fools i tell ya!

over 600k for a small 3br 1.5 bath which needs a mjor overhaul
while i rent 3br’s 1.5 baths totally modern with a terrace for $1700

why would i even consider buying?

Comment by az_lender
2007-06-03 08:21:47

mgnyc,
I have been seeing this for several years now, prices 30x annual rents. Have posted before, I am temporarily (??) living in a place where the (new, reduced) asking price is 43x the annual rent. This is not so different from your case, though, as I promised the LL I would heat it to some extent in winter whether I am here or not, and not many stay in these Maine shore houses in winter even if well insulated. Asking price is probably 37x annual (rent plus heat). Somewhat like your situation.

 
 
Comment by flat
2007-06-03 07:26:16

everyone will have a hangover- excpt FED gov workers
they’ll all get raises ,even offeoc-eieio
BTW Bob Komikazi on the tube says get long in DE-ptroit
wonder how many he’s bought ?

Comment by Front Range Bob
2007-06-03 08:43:08

WTH did you just say?

Comment by ajas
2007-06-03 09:13:56

As far as raises go, I think flat was talking about OFHEO, who are the federal oversight for Freddie and Fannie. Wildly underfunded, understaffed, without resources to do any kind of oversight, generally spit on and kicked. He’s saying even those poor souls will get a salary bump.

I think he also meant to say “Debtroit” in pointing out that it’s probably not a good buy, and only someone who was trying to get out of investments would be openly optimistic on TV.

 
 
Comment by doug-home
2007-06-03 10:24:16

What… even those idiot Gov workers over in Iraq will get raises????
Sorry… burger flipper is not the dead end job for realtors when they can get a job with yearly raises fighting in Iraq

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-06-03 14:27:02

Wow, Doug. Were you one of those who spit on returning Vietnam veterans?

Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-06-04 10:14:49

What did we achieve in Vietnam. Reminds me of the scene in the Meaning of Life when John Cleese is reading a memoriam “for the men who fought galiantly and died to help keep India British.” Classic.

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Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2007-06-03 07:27:36

“Veteran Pensacola Realtor Alexis Bolin said the huge inventory ‘is responsible for the declining prices as we have an over supply and less demand. The only way this market is going to change is for the inventory to be depleted, which isn’t happening any time soon.’”

These NAR fraudsters willfully refuse to recognize the correct cause-and-effect relationship here. The “huge inventory” isn’t responsible for “declining prices.” The stubborn refusal of greedhead sellers to LOWER THEIR PRICES for the dwindling pool of creditworthy buyers is the direct cause of the swelling inventories. And the only way the inventory is going to be “depleted” is - all together now, with feeling - for greedhead sellers to LOWER THEIR PRICES!

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-06-03 07:31:29

The 3 most important words in real estate have become “price, price, price”.

 
Comment by adopt-a-landlord
2007-06-03 09:35:13

Yup, funny how they always seem to label the effect as the cause. My question is, are they stupid/liers (”/” optional) because they do it, or do they do it because they’re stupid/liers (”/” optional)? :)

 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-06-03 07:28:57

“‘Rents are trending down,’ said Lincoln Crone, president of St. Petersburg’s Alliance Property Management. ‘I think that’s more of a temporary situation. There’s a lot of competition for tenants now.’”

Try and spot the double-speak in this one. Waldo isn’t hiding very well.

Comment by LongIslandLost
2007-06-03 07:46:48

There is almost no doublespeak. Rents are cyclical; so the “trending down” is really temporary. Of course, my five year old’s dependence on me is also temporary (if I do my fatherhood right!).

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-06-03 07:48:32

Life is temporary but I still plan to eat today.

Comment by aladinsane
2007-06-03 07:52:32

Tanstafl

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Comment by sd renter
2007-06-03 08:42:48

Comedian Steve Wright once said,
“My goal is to live forever, so far so good.”

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Comment by aladinsane
2007-06-03 07:35:32

“As a result, Quanstrom said, ‘Now there are builders who are going to be either destroyed or financially harmed as a result of that.’”

Quanstrom Fiscal Destruction Theory…

 
Comment by gsinbe
2007-06-03 07:44:06

“The courts will sort out who’s legally right, but who has the moral high ground? ‘This is a classic business ethics situation,’ said Cape Coral-based ethics consultant Dawn Marie Driscoll.”

Sweet new job opportunity for HBB folks - become an “ethics consultant”!! I’m just trying to figure out who would pay me for my ethical opinions???

Comment by txchick57
2007-06-03 07:48:06

That depends on how much professional liability insurance you’re willing to buy to back up your opinion ;)

Comment by palmetto
2007-06-03 07:55:15

“What’s legally allowable isn’t always what’s in a client’s best interests”

I once dealt with a RE attorney who used to say “Is it ethical? No. But legality is a different matter”. Indeed, I guess ethics is a personal issue, but I’ve always wondered why ethics and legality can’t be on the same page. Ethics says: “Thou shalt not screw thy neighbor”. The Law says: “Thou can screw they neighbor as long as you do thus and so.”

Comment by txchick57
2007-06-03 07:59:15

And then debate the meaning of “screw.” Been there, done that.

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Comment by palmetto
2007-06-03 08:02:19

Of course. That depends on what the meaning of “is” is.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2007-06-03 08:00:47

“they neighbor”

THY neighbor.

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Comment by LongIslandLost
2007-06-03 08:02:57

Ethics and law do agree to a significant extent. The legal term for “screwing thy neighbor” is fraud. The problem is the gray area where ethics reach, but law doesn’t. A Realtor has a duty to the house _seller_ so lying about multiple bids (which may be in the seller’s interest) meets that legal duty. But, it is not ethical. It is almost impossible to prove the bids did not exist, so it is hard to use the courts to attack the Realtor.

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Comment by palmetto
2007-06-03 08:18:10

“Ethics and law do agree to a significant extent.”

That was indeed the original intent. A person who operates on reason usually operates on ethics as well. Unfortunately, in so many ways, the law as it exists in the US has been distorted and twisted so badly. Lawyers are frequently used as gladiators by duelling entities. However, the legal system is mainly for the profit and entertainment of the members of the system, not those who may need to use it. For example, look at the pissant fees and inconvenience that juries get for interrupting their lives participate in a law suit. Everyone else, the lawyers, the judges, the clerks, the transcriptionists, bailiffs, etc. are being paid handsomely to be there and have a good time at the expense of the plaintiff, defendant and jury members. It’s a nicely paid game and show for them. I think jury members should be paid the hourly rate of the top paid system participant in the circus.

I don’t know if it is reality or perception, but

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-06-03 08:24:23

To continue my thought, I don’t know if it is reality or perception, but it does seem that massive fraud is rampant now throughout business, finance and government. Just more grist for the legal mill.

Old ways of settling scores were a lot cheaper and faster. Some might say more savage, but if you look at the misfortune of anyone who gets caught up in the legal system who is not part of it, they might disagree.

 
Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-06-04 10:20:39

If a realtor said that to me today I’d ask for their names saying I’d be interested in renting from them. That’d probably go over like a turd in a punchbowl.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-06-03 07:56:21

“Now, the Schmooks are losing money on both and seeking a tenant for the townhouse.”

I love it when Schmooks get their comeuppance.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-06-03 08:05:58

What he means by slow, is when the electricity (loans) is yanked…

Things come to a rather quick stop, on his roller coaster business model~

“‘We’ve been in business for 24 years, and it’s a roller coaster business with its ups and downs,’ Speranzo said, ‘but (the housing market) is as slow as I’ve ever seen it.’”

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2007-06-03 08:13:00

I enjoy living in a landlord-subsidized dwelling.

Comment by John Law(Duke of Arkansas)
2007-06-03 10:01:10

LSD?

Comment by PG
2007-06-03 11:53:17

Hey John, Are you experienced?

 
 
 
Comment by Lehigh Valley
2007-06-03 08:22:09

The Lehigh Valley is going to see prices back to 2001 levels soon. The Morning Call is the co-captain cheerleader for local realtors. Houses are sitting even the ones under 200k for months and not selling. I live in Emmaus and can point out at least 10 homes that are priced around 200k or under that aren’t selling. There’s some under 175k that aren’t selling. People that are stupid enough to fall for this housing bubble deserve to get screwed. No smart local would have ever paid 100% more in 5 years for a home. The morning call ran an article a few months ago saying how commuters basically stopped coming in 2006 but yet they still try and say prices are up. When row homes on Chestnut street in Emmaus that were selling for 85k in 2001 sold for 175k in 2005 anyone with a brain had to realize something was wrong. I would guess 95% of the fools who overpaid are from NJ. They travel 3-5 hours a day to work and then spend at least 8-10 hours at work. Do the math what kind of life is that. Foreclosures are up 40% in Lehigh & Northampton but the morning call doesn’t report the truth. I love the figures they print in Sunday’s paper about the % of home sold and value. Almost every week they claim positive figures. That’s a joke. The only people who actually don’t see prices falling around here are realtors and fools who bought from 2002-2006. They act like we have more job, “DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH THAT” will not pay 200k for a home. The average “LOCAL” couple averages under 75k around here. Watch as the foreclosures start pouring. Another thing is the amount of rentals from 1k-3k that’s even funnier. You can rent a nice home for under $900 a month. These people are just waiting for foreclosures and praying. I don’t think god will help this bubble. I predict prices back to 2001 levels by the end of 2008 and it might get worse. I am a lifetime local!

Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-06-04 10:27:40

Oddly enough, even up here in lowly New Jersey, in the average areas, there are locals that are stupid enough to pay 100% more for housing 5 years later. Amazing how dumb people are.

 
 
Comment by flat
2007-06-03 08:27:30

OT
do all new homes have 9 ft + ceilings and 2+ story foyers ?
wow, heating must be expensive

Comment by palmetto
2007-06-03 08:45:18

“heating must be expensive”

Also cooling, although hot air rises. The house I used to own had relatively low ceilings and it was cheap to cool. But, some people being the idiots they are, “volume ceilings” was the battle cry of builders in Florida before “granite countertops” became the “in” thing.

It should be interesting to see how new home buyers in Florida feel about “volume ceilings” after this summer. Rising energy costs+rising insurance+rising taxes+rising mortgage payments. Wheeeeeeeoooooooo!

Comment by doug-home
2007-06-03 10:31:59

Sorry…high cielings only cause heating bill to go up. Cold air drops to the floor where the people are.

Comment by desmo
2007-06-03 10:59:06

Sorry…high cielings only cause heating bill to go up. Cold air drops to the floor where the people are.

No, the “lower” cold air mixes with the “higher” hot air and creates warm air, thus the a/c unit has to work harder to cool the house. High ceilings are only nice to look at.

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Comment by skip
2007-06-03 11:40:13

Its all about the volume…it takes more electricity to cool a bigger volume.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by lep
2007-06-03 08:47:59

Is there any way to know how many of the people who are stuck with houses in FL are actually able to rent them? I’d be really leery about renting from someone in that situation and I suspect many people are uncomfortable renting from a newbie landlord.

Comment by GH
2007-06-03 09:00:19

I totally agree. I won’t rent from someone I suspect of being seriously upside-down. The funny think, as much money is going into their pockets in the form of first last and security, it is the renter who should be running a credit report. I wonder if there is some kind of mechanism to ensure the deposit and any other monies paid are secure in the event of foreclosure?

Comment by palmetto
2007-06-03 09:07:02

Yes, Ben had a report on one of the recent threads (past week, maybe less) that it is the LANDLORDS whose credit needs to be examined. You can run a credit check on them and you can also look up the property in local county records to get a feel for what is happening. As to a deposit, you could probably ask for escrow.

Comment by aNYCdj
2007-06-03 12:03:58

Ar a Renter and a Paralegal, I tell everyone this, Make sure your landlord is Solvent.

Try and find one that has lived in the house for 10-20 years….there is a very good chance they have not heloced the place to death.

BUT KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN, to the new SUV’s in the yard and extensive/expensive renovations, If the appliances in your apartment are 10 years old and no new upgrades, then you could be in for a great rent deal.

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Comment by SteelCurtain
2007-06-03 12:51:10

Perhaps tenants should require an escrow deposit for moving expenses should the landlord be forclosed on before the lease is up.

 
 
Comment by lep
2007-06-03 09:15:13

I’m mainly interested in how much of an effect this will have on the speed of the drop in prices. If
1. There are a large # of rentals coming on the market (seems to be true)
2. FBs can’t rent them out (?)
3. FBs can’t otherwise cover costs (probably true)

then prices should drop fast and we can get this thing over with sooner. I’m getting full from the popcorn.

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-06-03 09:20:32

“‘Now there are more than just intentional investors,’ says Morgan, who has worked in residential property management for 23 years. ‘They’re what I call the accidental landlords. They’re not always the happiest or most knowledgeable of landlords.’”

Yes, and there are also a lot of REALTORS who are “accidental MANAGERS”.

Beware of real estate brokerages that have a “property management” department, or of a realtor that doubles as a property manager. In my hard-won experience, the two occupational hats DO NOT mix well. A professional property manager knows what he or she is doing usually and have a good grasp of tenant/landlord laws, or they do not last long. Realtors who become property managers by default can be a disaster, just like failed investor/flippers who become accidental landlords, which is why many realtors prefer to stay away from property management.

 
Comment by Chip
2007-06-03 11:29:00

lep — good question/point. I know someone who recently rented a brand new 2,300 sf condo, directly on a river, for $1,300/mo. That should cover about one-third of the owner’s true costs. Unless I had a fairly light load of furnishings, I’d be leery of a place like that because the owner will likely give up on it within a year, or two at the most. As Ben noted a while back, the tables most definitely have turned, for landlords.

 
 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-06-03 15:09:24

It is location, location, location. We always said any location will sell if the price is right.

 
Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-06-04 08:02:24

“Now, the Schmooks are losing money on both and seeking a tenant for the townhouse.”

Is that pronounced Schm-oo-k or Schmuck?

 
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