The Housing Bubble

The Star Tribune reports from Minnesota. “When Jerry Loh sold property he owned along the Gunflint Trail several years ago, he put the money right back into real estate, buying a condo in Florida and two pieces of land along the North Shore. His plan was to sell the Minnesota tracts to a developer for a tidy profit that would help finance his retirement.”

“Three years later, he’s still waiting. Loh dropped the price $35,000 on one of the parcels and $110,000 on the other. Still no offers. ‘Four years ago you could have sold this no matter what,’ said Loh, referring to his 11- and 19-acre hillside parcels. ‘There’s definitely been a pullback.’”

“‘The froth is off and the foam has subsided,’ said Scott Harrison, a longtime developer. ‘It’s been sobering for people to realize that real estate can’t grow 20 percent on an annual basis.’”

“Two years ago, real estate appraiser Holly Harwig was so busy she hired her son to help manage the volume through the summer. Today, she works alone and is down to two appraisals a week, leaving her with enough spare time to (do) things she couldn’t even consider two years ago when she was doing at least two appraisals a day.”

“From time to time Harwig comes up with a number that’s less than the one assigned by the County Assessor’s office. ‘It’s a rarity, but it’s happened more than I’ve ever seen,’ she said.”

The Journal Sentinel from Wisconsin. “The number of unprofitable banks in Wisconsin jumped in the first quarter, part of a national trend in which a challenging interest rate environment and lagging mortgage market are squeezing bank earnings.”

“The percentage of Wisconsin savings banks, banks focused mostly on mortgage lending, that didn’t turn a profit in the first quarter was 21.6%, up from 8.1% a year earlier, according to a new report by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.”

“David L. Donihue, a bank consultant in Milwaukee, said mortgage-oriented banks that benefited from refinancing until last year are seeing the biggest dip in earnings.”

“‘Banks that put heavy reliance on refis, their profits are either down or they’re losing money,’ he said.”

The Courier from Iowa. “All of the housing numbers were down in the first quarter for the Cedar Valley when compared to 2006. Statistics for foreclosures are difficult to obtain, but the Black Hawk Abstract Co. tracked the total number of foreclosures in Black Hawk County, including commercial.”

“The numbers showed an increase in average monthly foreclosures from 23 in 2005 to 29 in 2006. So far in 2007, the average number of monthly foreclosures has shot up to 33.25.”

“‘The foreclosures are up all over,’ said Karen Atwood, CEO of Consumer Credit Counseling Services of Northeast Iowa. ‘The subprime market has contributed to this.’”

“‘People just cannot meet those high-interest loans,’ said Atwood. ‘It forces people to use credit cards to pay bills as they try to keep those subprime loans good. Eventually they go bad. And it is bad for the entire community as it causes people to lose faith in buying a home.’”

The Naperville Sun from Illinois. “The threat of foreclosure affected 57 percent more Naperville families in 2006 than it did in 2005, according to a recent report by a Chicago affordable housing advocacy group.”

“‘The 2006 numbers were in some ways just the tip of the iceberg,’ said David Rose, the National Training and Information Center analyst who authored the report. ‘There were a lot of these ARMs written out there, and there are a lot of them that are going to reset this year, and I suspect that in 2007…it is going to be an even worse year.’”

“Rose is concerned about what this trend may mean to home buyers. ‘I worry right now that the industry may go a little bit the opposite direction and start really tightening up on credit, and it may be more difficult to get a loan,’ he said.”

“He’s also worried about the impact an ‘influx of relatively less expensive houses’ is going to have on the market, as banks that foreclose on homes typically sell them ‘for whatever they can get to cover their investment.’ That means residents looking to sell homes in the same neighborhoods as these foreclosed properties might not be able get the price they want, Rose said.”

“‘A foreclosure in your neighborhood is going to reduce the value of your property. It’s as simple as that,’ he said.”

The Journal from Illinois. “The number of foreclosures on homes in Des Plaines nearly doubled from 2005 to 2006, according to a study done by the NTIC. According to their data, Des Plaines has seen an almost 300% increase in foreclosures since 1993, and from 2005 to 2006, the number of foreclosures went from 100 to 195, a 95% increase.”

“NTIC’s study found a 36% increase in Chicago foreclosures from 2005-2006, the largest increase in 15 years, as well as sizable increases in Arlington Heights (30%), Buffalo Grove (58%), Glenview (73%), Elk Grove Village (24%), Mt. Prospect (34%), Prospect Heights (23%) Niles (67%), Wheeling (86%) and Schaumburg (70%).”

“‘It’s pretty clear that almost half of the foreclosures in 2006 were early defaults, meaning they were on loans that were less than 24 months old, and about 40% were ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages),’ said NTIC Executive Director David Rose.”

“Of the 195 foreclosures in Des Plaines in 2006, 48% were early defaults, and 38% were early defaults from ARMs, according to the NTIC data.”

“The result of these foreclosures, according to Rose, is often a decline in property values throughout the neighborhood. ‘We’re seeing boarded up homes in neighborhoods we would’ve never seen them before,’ he said. ‘We’re talking about homeowners to begin with, so we’re not talking about really, really poor people.’”

“‘When we started working on this, it was basically high cost loans that were getting people into trouble. Now it’s these ARMs that aren’t covered by the Illinois High Risk Home Loan Act,’ said Rose.”

“The state law was intended to shield people from predatory lending, but according to NTIC data, 92% of the 2006 foreclosures had low interest rates that fall out of the scope of state protection.”

The Citizen Patriot from Michigan. “The number of homes entering foreclosure in Jackson County has skyrocketed from 88 in 1997 to 874 in 2006. This year’s number could break county records. More than 420 homes in Jackson County have been listed as foreclosed since January.”

“‘The way things are, it doesn’t matter what neighborhood you’re in, there’s probably a home that’s been foreclosed on,’ said Jackson city Assessor Jan Markowski.”

“Jackson had an upswing in new mortgages and refinanced properties in 2004 and 2005 when interest rates were less than 5 percent, said Mindy Reilly, register of deeds for Jackson County. ‘Now we’re seeing the consequences of that,’ she said.”

“Acting County Administrator Randy Treacher has been getting monthly updates on the number of foreclosures in the county for about the past year. ‘That’s not something any of us expected,’ Treacher said. ‘Foreclosures are to be expected in a down economy, but not at the rate they’re going here.’”