Recent Median Price Increases Are An Illusion
The North County Times reports from California. “Real estate appraiser Todd R. Lackner’s second job as mortgage fraud investigator began when he stumbled onto a suspicious-looking transaction while online one day last March, he said. Within weeks, he was chest-deep in dozens of investigations, and was helping federal investigators get the goods on real estate scammers who commit what are known as inflated-sale and-crash schemes, Lackner said.”
“He said he remembers well the day the first case came to light. He was doing an appraisal of a home in San Diego and was checking the sales information on comparable properties, Lackner said. He noticed that one of them had sold for $70,000 more than the listed price.”
“So, he did a drive-by to check out the property, he said. There was no one living there, he said, and the house was run-down, with an overgrown lawn.”
“It turned out, he said, the real estate agent who had represented the buyer, had been involved in the purchase of 17 properties over a period of just a few months. All of the sales were suspicious, because the sales prices were significantly higher than the list prices, Lackner said. Ten of the properties later foreclosed, he said.”
“‘Then, I knew I was onto something,’ Lackner said. ‘I said, ‘how can people get away with this?’ Those who are caught, tried and convicted will face many years in prison, as they should, said Lackner, who has worked as an appraiser since 1989.”
“Lackner said he wants to see justice served. The average bank robbery nets the robber about $5,000, and why should crimes that involve much more money be any different, he asked.”
“‘If you look at some of these (mortgage fraud) cases, on one day alone, someone did the equivalent of robbing 10 or 20 banks in one day,’ Lackner said.”
“A November 2006 FBI report on mortgage fraud said, ‘appraisal fraud has a snowball effect on inflating real estate values, with fraudulent values being entered into real estate multiple listing services and then used by legitimate appraisers as comparable values for determining market values for neighboring properties.’”
“According to the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, in 2006, California had more than one-third of the nation’s suspicious loan activity at federally insured lenders.”
The Modesto Bee. “Con artists are… making a fortune ripping off homeowners and lenders through assorted fraudulent real estate schemes.”
“‘Real estate fraud is so prevalent, we can’t even keep up with the amount of complaints coming in,’ said Marlisa Ferreira, the Stanislaus County deputy district attorney assigned to prosecute real estate fraud.”
“‘There’s all kinds of scams out there, and they’re using appraisers to do them,’ warned Steven Smith, a real estate appraiser and consultant from San Bernardino. He said he’s known as ‘the fraud guy’ because he’s been researching it since 1999.”
“Smith said appraisers, knowingly or unknowingly, are used to inflating property values so larger-than-deserved home loans can be obtained. Those loans usually aren’t repaid, triggering foreclosures.”
“There are organized real estate fraud rings throughout California, including Modesto. ‘There’s a lot of guilty hands out there,’ he said.”"
The Voice of San Diego. “The last release of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for San Diego shows that…San Diego prices were still falling as of March.”
“It’s interesting to note that the size-adjusted median price and even the ‘plain vanilla’ median price actually tracked the Case-Shiller HPI decently enough right up until December of last year, which is when the subprime lending market began to tighten up.”
“This divergence supports the theory that recent median price increases are an illusion caused by a declining proportion of lower-priced home sales, and that they do not represent an actual increase in market prices.”
The Press Telegram. “This year’s Tour des Artistes on Saturday in the East Village Arts District. At this year’s event will be an extensive tour of lofts, historic buildings and live/work spaces.”
“Not only can tour visitors check out the lofts, but they can buy some. Two units in the Cooper Arms building will be auctioned off on Monday. ‘We’ll probably start the bidding at $100,000 and go up from there,’ said Connie Waddell, who works for the auctioneer.”
“The Temple lofts is selling more than 20 lofts at prices from $400,000 and up, with several large lofts at discounted prices of around the mid $600,000s.”
“Realtors Kathy Sasha and Debi Garcia-Benson both Realtors say the lofts are being discounted to move them in the sluggish housing market, even though half the lofts in the 82-unit project have been sold.”
‘Fresh Census business data (sadly, as of 2005) shows what’s at risk in the local housing crunch in terms of real estate agencies/brokerages and their employees in (Orange County).’
‘After a long run of extremely limited prime office space in the Stockton area, a number of projects are either coming on the market or poised for completion in coming months.’
‘The Verona Office Plaza development, between Shoreline Drive and Interstate 5, will feature double three-story structures that probably will be sold in condo units of various sizes to businesses.’
‘That speculation project, though, is being built in two phases now because the market softened last year, said Garibaldi, who primarily builds apartments but decided to try an office project a couple of years ago because the office market looked so strong.’
‘It’s about a 10-hour drive from Fish Springs to Ramona and we go down there quite frequently because we have lots of family in southern California. One new thing we discovered in the desert is the way realtors advertise new track homes, just like here in Nevada. They’re really starting to swing those signs on the street corners directing people to all the new housing tracks in Carson Valley; not only in Carson Valley but also in Carson City and Reno.’
‘And last weekend we saw the same advertising tactics being used out in the Mojave Desert around Victorville. Since there’s hardly any more vacant land in sprawling Riverside and San Bernardino counties, houses are spilling over Cajon Pass and going up around Victorville.’
‘Large new subdivisions are popping up all over the desert with names like Sunrise, Fairview, Desert Trails and Shadow Mountain. ‘
I love the desert. Might not be bad, but where the hell are you going to get a job that will afford a $500K stuccobox in the Mojave???? This is why this housing boom is so freaking stupid.
Find a crooked appraiser and a stupid lender and keep the refi party going until you die. Live off the MEW for the next 50 years. Hope that the GF lenders don’t all go bankrupt.
Why you simply commute to the I.E.
Oh Joy!
Live in Victorville and commute to Fontana! Could life possible get any better than that?
I occasionally represent a company based in in Fontana.
One day, I went to the client’s office to meet with the executives and get sworn declarations from some of the employees. The employees I interviewed were rank-and-file personnel, mostly truck drivers and sales reps.
When I was chatting with everyone before the meeting began, I was shocked to discover that 80% of the employees I was interviewing lived in Victorville and commuted to Fontana. They had all purchased their homes in 2004 or 2005. My guess is that they paid between $300 and $350k apiece.
I was shocked. I always knew that a lot of nice, hardworking people would lose their homes in the coming wave of foreclosures, but it was very disturbing to meet an entire room full of them at once. It was like there was a time bomb ticking in the room that only I could see. I wanted to warn people, but knew that it was inappropriate and that no one would believe me in any case.
It was equally shocking to learn that people actually commute from Victorville to Fontana! Moreover, the employees I met considered themselves FORTUNATE — most of their neighbors commute from Victorville to LA and Orange County!
You know something is seriously wrong when solid working class people are priced out of Fontana.
Here’s a price reduction for you–what half a million will buy you in Southern California–and it’s “Just Reduced!”
http://re.ocrealestatefinder.com/realestate/Sales/Listing.asp?FPId=478-S467264&flag=L
this housing bubble is just crazy. all these shacks for 500k are never selling again without the subprime engine.
Is Trona still affordable? Its only a 100 miles out from Victorville and I think the median home is under $100,000.
Ha! Trona! Even Ridgecrest folks laugh at Trona! I remember back in the last housing bust in the mid 1990s reading about 4 bedroom 2 bath 2000 square foot house for sale in one of the canyons near Trona. I believe it was $45,000. Actually Trona is not really that bad if you live 5 miles away (upwind from the chemical plant). The Mojave Desert is beautiful. I love the winters, even though it usually gets very cold there. One winter it got down to 6 degrees above zero. I was fortunate that only my PVC pipe underneath the driveway broke. It was easily repaired. The area is not for young single heterosexual males though. It’s a military town and full of engineers.
after 911 prices went straight up in san diego. as a single person with some assests i just knew the only place left to live was barstow. i was mighty unhappy. luckily im still overpaying to live near the ocean.
“Here’s a price reduction for you–what half a million will buy you in Southern California–and it’s “Just Reduced”
Not sure about how good or bad that area is, but being near the border with La Mirada is a positive. Whitter 90604 has some good parts and some declining areas, a mixed mosaic.
AS for Trona, it is way,way out there in the deserts/canyons/mts adjacent to Death valley. Yes, the desert/canyon terrain out there is more varied and beautiful than the deserts just outside LA. I did a wintertime drive thru death valley once, though didn’t go the 178 rte thru Trona, choosing the 190 instead.
I have the Sierra Club book ‘adventuring in the California Deserts’ and am particulary fasinated with the Panamint mts, and have always wanted to do Telescope peak. I am somewhat of a desert eco-nut but would not shell out more than $100,000 for any property in any CA desert.
Heh…..That house is a craftsmen compared to the shack we saw the other day in Oakland….Anyone still have a pic. of that one ??
That is totally stupid with $ 500K houses in the Mojave. Might as well move to Arizona as it might be cooler there.
At least there are jobs and low taxes in AZ.
Darrell
Any offers on your house? E-mail me at kbarrett at CSK auto.com and let me know how its going. I have a co-worker in my department trying to sell a 1150 sq ft house built in 78 for 210K. Good luck with that!
I’m not even officially on the market yet. Have some projects to finish. We laid laminant floor last year, but stopped just outside the kitchen and laundry rooms waiting for a full redo of the kitchen. Well, that ain’t happening, so just repainted and finished laying the floor. Base boards and a touch more painting, then a full top to bottom scrub. Oh, and have to lay some gravel in the side yard. It is being delivered Wednesday. Oh, and I guy coming to replace the solar water heater temp sensor tomorrow….
Probably won’t be in MLS until a week from today.
No take it from me, my parents lived in the ‘lovely’ Mojave Desert town of California City and my son lives in Phoenix, Az. Been to both in July and well… at least it cools off to the 70’s at night in the Mojave (OK so you’re getting blasted from the winds that ALWAYS seem to blow there) but at least it ain’t 102 at midnight. But beyond the heat, Arizona is a FAR, FAR more attractive place to live if you’re going live in the desert.
Seems like you would almost have to start up a meth production lab if you wanted to eventually pay off your $500K alligator. So far as I am aware, there is not much of a jobs base out in the middle of the Mojave Desert.
Stucco, you sure do seem to know a lot about meth labs and their potential for income. Hmmmmm…..
You would pretty much have to be deaf and illiterate to have lived in CA for any length of time and missed out on local news stories about meth lab explosions…
We are just wondering how you have the energy to post so much
“We are just wondering how you have the energy to post so much ”
LOL
Nahh, he’s nowhere near paranoid enough and on a really quiet night here in San Diego you can hear the muffled boom of meth labs exploding in the distance.
Well there’ s always the prison or the boron mines or Edwards Airforce Base…wow sounds like some exciting career prospects!
got the Marines at 29 Palms too
“got the Marines at 29 Palms too”
I was once out in Victorville, got off the 15 fwy for a quick snack at a strip mall, and saw an entire Tank squadron going right through the city streets. They even waited at the stop sign before making a left/right turn. Surprised they didn’t pull up at the local burger drive-in.
They(regulars or reservists?)must have been practicing their maneuvers in the abundant open victorville desert terrain, which would emulate the Iraqi desert.
“Seems like you would almost have to start up a meth production lab if you wanted to eventually pay off your $500K alligator. So far as I am aware, there is not much of a jobs base out in the middle of the Mojave Desert”
The only hi-paying jobs sector is in Palmcaster, where they still have the Northrup/Boeing Areo-industries and a few contractors associated them. They account for less than 3 % of the employed workforce in Palmcaster: that and a miniscule few Gov’t bureaucratic positions is it for the high desert.
70%+ of Palmcaster workforce commutes to LA. Maybe a few Moms work in the local retail, but the entire hi-desert has almost zero hi-paying jobs sectors. My guess is that quite a % of the population of Victorville-maybe even lancaster, depends on Gov’t assistance/direct payouts/subsidized housing/rents, welfare, ect. Seen quite a few Gov’t welfare-type offices in Victorville: similar to inner-city San Bernardino.
Actually, beyond defense installations, there is no other industry out in the desert. The engineering jobs out there are lower paying than in LA and even Phoenix. In lean years, it’s true that meth labs pop up in seldom-visited parts of the desert. It’s both sad and frightening. I lived out there 11 years and read newspapers a lot, so I knew all about what was going on in the high desert.
“I love the desert. Might not be bad, but where the hell are you going to get a job that will afford a $500K stuccobox in the Mojave???? This is why this housing boom is so freaking stupid.”
Average large MCStuccos in Palmcaster are now priced at less than $300,000, and plenty of available foreclosures abounding which should lower prices to around $200,000 for large ranch properties on 1-10 acre lots by end of this year, at least in the remoter outback parts of Palmcaster/Apple valley.
The Entire high-desert Mojave region including Victorville,Lucerne Valley, Hesperia, Apple valley, Antelope valley, Adelanto, Palmcaster, Phelan, Pearblossem(basucally the entire stretch along the 18/138 highway), is all the same sagebrush terrain and equally hot and miserable 8 months of the year, and all equally long miserable gas-hogging commutes to LA basin/coastal jobs. No property is worth even $300,000 much less $500,000. Decent though smaller SFH’s can be had now even in half-way decent quiet LA burgs for about $500,000.
Anyone paying half-mil for property out in the high desert has to be a total desert-loving nut-job. Or possibly planning on doing some illegal activity out in the sparsly-policed desert boonies.
If you want to live in high desert without the heat, go to Susanville
Ben–not sure if you saw this or not but in that “census” link there there was an interview (blog date 6-2-07) with a “business journalist” regarding MSM coverage of real estate. Pretty chuckalicious (as were the comments aftewards).
“Soft Landings only happen on the Moon”
Funny line from those responses. MSM has been more than fair, if not outright complicite, in the whole damn bubble mess.
Wasn’t Apollo 11’s Lunar Module a few seconds away from running out of fuel and having a hard landing?
Yup. Neil Armstrong was having trouble finding a safe place to land, and had only 30 seconds of fuel left upon landing. They also accidentally broke a switch needed to ignite the take off engine for the return trip, but Buzz Aldrin was able to kludge a fix with a ball point pen.
The official number was 30 seconds.
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/alsj/a11/a11.landing.html
I always wonder why it isn’t spelled “klooj”
‘Large new subdivisions are popping up all over the desert with names like Sunrise, Fairview, Desert Trails and Shadow Mountain. ‘
I guess someone already took Sunstroke, Smogview, Trail of Tears, and Barren Mountain.
Actually the ones I listed are too descriptive and could never be given any IP protection.
Love your comments about the desert communities!!!!! My wife and I go to Brawley below Salton Sea to do wildlife photography and you would not believe the sign flippers there in a community of low income agrcultural workers. They are asking $300,000 plus where the summers get to 110 plus. REal Ugly!
Brawley is good for Dove hunting.Not much else.
“A November 2006 FBI report on mortgage fraud said, ‘appraisal fraud has a snowball effect on inflating real estate values, with fraudulent values being entered into real estate multiple listing services and then used by legitimate appraisers as comparable values for determining market values for neighboring properties.’”
So that’s why the comps are so high!
So that’s why the comps are so high!
Yup, it only takes one crooked appraiser to inflate a house that will be used by a legit appriaser for a comp. Then the legit appriasers comp will be used by another appriaser….you get the picture.
Any decent statistician can weed out fraud etc. All you do is take out the top and bottom 5% of transactions and average the middle 90% to get comps. You could even take out the top and bottom 10% if fraud is prevalent. The lenders should be hiring their own appraisers instead of using the brokers’
That assumes that you WANT the comps to be accurate.
The lenders should be hiring their own appraisers instead of using the brokers’
—————————–
This is one of the biggest things that allowed this whole bubble to grow as it did. If the final lenders were the only ones to have any contact with the appraisers (enforced by law), things wouldn’t have gotten so out of hand.
“if the final lenders were the only ones to have any contact with the appraisers, things wouldn’t have gotten so out of hand”
That is indeed the secret of my solvency, so far. Moi, the final lender, je suis the drive-by appraiser. When I have said “no” to some would-be buyer-borrower, I have often been regaled with some story of an outrageously high “comp,” at which I have shrugged. I don’t put this assertion in the present tense, because the Loan Demand went dead sometime in March. Is it just because I forced my final borrower to read HBB for a few days? (That person took the loan anyway.)
Or another illegit appraiser inflates on top of the prior and so on and so on… There are really plenty of illegit layes of comps each one will fall like a domino.
“So, he did a drive-by to check out the property, he said”
Man I never knew it was a profession. Out here in Philadelphia drive-bys are normal. (lol)
A few anecdotal stories from SoCal:
I was in a meeting with my CCO and EVP the other day. The topic quickly turned to the residential market in the IE (I am in commercial finance for a commercial bank). Well we started talking about loan loss reserves and charge-offs. The EVP informs us that he had a meeting with a builder who has a construction loan with us - not sure how much but some where in the $5mil range. This builder is a small local builder in the REdlands area (out in San Bernardino county). The builder built 33 residential homes in eearly 2006 and sold 23 of them. He hasn’t sold a single home since Oct 2006. So we assigned a receiver to his business. Wow talk about knee jerk reaction. Small builders will be crushed just like in the 90’s. And there are a ton of them here in SoCal.
Second story. I have a friend of a friend who just took a job (after being laid off by a mortgage company) with a large bank (not sure which one). He was hired to do residential mortgages. Ha. Well his mgr tells him if he can fund 32 loans in his first month he will get a huge bonus. So he busts his ass and gets his 32 loans. He takes off for the weekend and comes back to find out 7 of the loans fell out. No bonus…
What is the average fall out rate? Have any recent stories indicated?
My ADD and the fast-changing nature of this blog don’t allow me to remember.
The situation you describe is systemic throughout California not only with small builders but also with wannabe builders who have purchased land to attain entitlements and then either spin or build…Problem is they bought the land based on 06 + pricing AND the expectation that the absorption rate would continue to be very strong…uh oh !!! The bank lending spigot is now shut except for only the strongest of borrowers with the cash flow and cash reserves to justify…..The bleeding is slow at first, then (As lostangels stated above) the lenders step in and take over….It will be another year before we see the real pain IMO….
There are 2 new 3-unit townhome projects just finished on my corner in South Redondo Beach. Last year this place was considered bullet-proof. Builders were paying full retail and then tearing down.
So far one unit out of 5 has sold … 1.2MM . These are small builders as you described. Both show vinyard bank as the construction lender. There is a new 3 unit just going up one block down the street. Eventually these will sell… but can the builder cross the finish line?
Vineyard Bank will be crushed. They’ve been doing a ton of handshake construction deals since the hysteria started in 2002. Most of their clients are small general contractors. We had a plenty of contractors come to us first for a loan only to have to jump through “hoops” to get financing. They’d end up going to Vineyard and get it done there.
Rumor is the regulators are tightening the screws on Vineyard. Lots of “senior” people jumping ship. Dave Johnson and the other guy Smith have made a ton of cash during the last 5 yrs - most of the deals in the South Bay.
I have a CD with Vineyard (Irvine office, near the IMAX theater)
Person who opened CD was a mgr (small office). Got to
chatting about R/E. Gave link to Ben’s blog. Got email
back a few days later thanking me for information. This
was over 1 year ago.
Closing 32 loans is around 20k to 50k commission in one month. When you can make that kind of cash who cares about the bonus.
“‘Then, I knew I was onto something,’ Lackner said. ‘I said, ‘how can people get away with this?’ Those who are caught, tried and convicted will face many years in prison, as they should, said Lackner, who has worked as an appraiser since 1989.”
Kudos to Mr. Lackner.
The scam artists only go to jail if someone puts them there. Fortunately the Feds are so inept that won’t have to pay for all that extra jail space needed to incarcerate them.
we
“Lackner said he wants to see justice served. The average bank robbery nets the robber about $5,000, and why should crimes that involve much more money be any different, he asked. ‘If you look at some of these (mortgage fraud) cases, on one day alone, someone did the equivalent of robbing 10 or 20 banks in one day,’ Lackner said.”
At least, so far as I know, nobody has been shot and killed in a mortgage fraud situation.
At least not yet.
I seem to remember some shooting in a Laguna Beach hotel.
Does that count?
Chuck Ponzi
will any even go to jail ?
They already left town, sitting on a beach somewhere.
No one has been killed in a mortgage fraud situation, but the neighbors are dying the slow “death by a thousand cuts”… putting their homes on the market and setting the price while using fraud-influenced comps, and then being forced over time to make multiple price reductions since their homes won’t sell for what the Jones’s sold for (no offense to Ben of course).
We had a multi-murder here in Phoenix based on mortgage fraud….
A guy burned down some underconstruction houses he was building when the fraudulant deals to unload them fell through. His partners turned states evidence, so he killed them and everyone else in thier house…..
http://www.azcentral.com/community/mesa/articles/0209mr-miller-0210.html
RH, you made me suddenly wonder if Ben’s last name is really Jones, or if it’s a pseudonym concocted to hide him from REIC.
Who is this Lackner? He’s not going to get squat for doing this. He’s just pis-ed that his business got creamed ’cause he wouldn’t play ball, just like Crabtree claims in Bakersfield.
“At least, so far as I know, nobody has been shot and killed in a mortgage fraud situation.”
Just wait until an FB goes postal.
He’ll be ARMed and dangerous
is commercial RE starting to crack ?
sound off
Multi-Family properties are… 5 units and above. Not sure about anything else. Because I spend so much time researching them I have noticed higher caps and less per door cost in certain areas.
I’m also noticing more for lease signs on shopping centers and small retail all over the city.
None of the trade rags have really said anything however…
Where are you located again? Portland multi-families still being sold to outta staters who think cash flow is a quaint notion.
Los Angeles, what you have to remember is that I have access to study the market in various ways that most buyers are not.
Don’t see any crack in the commercial market YET !! but with cap rates this low 6 + - I just don’t see how it can be sustained…I know a few people who have made a boat load of dough repositioning large apartments in Portland & Seattle and then turning them but those were not purchased for the CAP…..IMO I think the commercial market values will depend on interest rates…If we see interest rates go up for “whatever” reason its “Good Night Irene”……
“is commercial RE starting to crack ”
commercial building is an epidemic in carlsbad, california. along with all the new homes, monstrous office building are eating up the hillsides. maybe they need more mortgage offices!
Empty strip malls still being built aplenty in the metro areas of east Twin Cities…right in areas where there is hundreds of for sale signs for homes and housing tracks…..two malls near me are 40-80% unoccupied or a community college has taken over a part of it. Still building them though, nail and hair salons, coffee houses, Countrywide Mortgage refi offices, bead shops and other boutiquie shite that will be wiped out in the next crash… I can’t wait !!
“It’s interesting to note that the size-adjusted median price and even the ‘plain vanilla’ median price actually tracked the Case-Shiller HPI decently enough right up until December of last year, which is when the subprime lending market began to tighten up.”
That is quite an interesting coincidence of timing…
“Typically, Lackner said, a buyer will purchase between three and six properties at once.”
This article does not sound right. How is it possible to buy so many properties at once? To get approved for just one loan is tough enough (even with minimal documentation etc)?
Getting approved is tough????? What are you talking about!
It’s actually very easy. You can use one credit report for six different lenders and none will be the wiser. It typically takes 30-45 days for it to show up on your credit report after it closes. This is common practice up or down market.
“You can use one credit report for six different lenders and none will be the wiser.”
If that is not illegal, it certainly should be.
I don’t practice that way, so I’m not sure if it’s illegal or not. I would assume it is… But it could be a gray area or loophole. I’ve never had a need to check into it.
two words:
casey serin
A few years ago you could have walked into any sales office for Richmond American and bought two homes for every phase opening, drive to the next Richmond American development and repeat the process.
If you do your loans at *exactly* the same time, often each lender isn’t aware of the applications being made with the other ones.
So paladin’s real name is Todd R. Lackner, eh?
My thoughts exactly.
Could be, but California is a huge state with an awful lot of opportunity for anyone who wants to moonlight as a mortgage fraud investigator. It would not surprise me in the least to learn that a small army of Paladins are pursuing this second career.
I’m seriously thinking about looking into that as a small business venture. My background in is Accounting, Finance and project management so I think I could easily make the transition. Anyone else want to discuss the potential of this for the next several years. I’m very serious about this.
To bad people that would hire you aren’t…
Have you seen what’s going on in the MBS market? Banks are actually letting borrowers not pay their mortgage so they won’t get stuck with the loan. The Market guys are crying foul saying that they’ve purchased derivatives against the loans under the assumption that the bank will play by the rules. Someone is going to have to take the hot potato but until all the lawsuits settle finding the rat that stole the cheeze is the least of peoples worries.
“The Market guys are crying foul saying that they’ve purchased derivatives against the loans under the assumption that the bank will play by the rules.”
It goes without saying, but some gambles lose money.
Relative to the ARM reset schedule, when do the banks turn over the mortgages to the investors…and when do they take the stock market down?
I’ve talked to another poster here about it (sorry, can’t remember who), and think it’s a good idea.
As you know, you have to determine who your customer base will be & how the payments to you would be handled (& determine how the money flows through the transaction).
If you want to discuss more, feel free to e-mail at: jo 7878 at aol dot com. Don’t have a lot of time, but might consider financial assistance and help with start-up.
I thought he was from the Sacramento area?
Yes. IIRC, Paladin is from the central portion of CA. I don’t think this is him…but it could be OC renter, perhaps???
‘appraisal fraud has a snowball effect on inflating real estate values, with fraudulent values being entered into real estate multiple listing services and then used by legitimate appraisers as comparable values for determining market values for neighboring properties.’”
If you got your shit together as an appraiser you can weed out the crap and put together a legit report.
But not for a fee system which has been stagnant for 20 years.
Then again, it’s the number hitter junkies who the state licensing boards allowed to take over the system who have destroyed the credibility of the entire transactional system.
There’s no cure for them-there’s too many roamin’ around now starving to death.
They’re like a plague.
These fooks will hit a 7 digit value for a $100.00.
Did anybody else here notice that a few weeks ago CFC issued some kind of “general corporate bond” which raised over 4B in cash, and then today they announced a 2B bond offering. It seems like maybe they are running out of money or something? Hmmn(?) Wondering if anyone out there has any thoughts or knowledge on this.
It was my understanding that this offering is being used to buy back shares. Easier to grow EPS if there are fewer “S’”. Thats why I’m short (Jan 08 Puts)
Top management is forcing the company to buy shares while they pump and dump their little hearts out. The SEC is a joke.
How long does this game go on. Anybody have a feeling for how and when the shtf for this company (cfc)?
I have a theory/feeling that so many people are trying to short the market right now that it’s actually going up because of all the shorts buying in.
Short Squeeze Rally!. Perfect time to load up shorts.
Chuck
same
Treasury aide says US might hit debt limit in ‘07.
CHICAGO, June 4 (Reuters) - A senior U.S. Treasury official said on Monday that the United States could hit its statutory debt limit just before the 2007 fiscal year ends, depending on how tax receipts shape up in the next month or so.
“It’s going to happen in the fall,” Matthew Abbott, deputy assistant secretary for Federal finance at Treasury, told Reuters after a speech to a meeting of Illinois pension fund managers.
The fiscal year ends on Sept. 30, so the possible need to ask Congress to raise the debt limit from the current $8.965 billion “will be right on the cusp,” Abbott said.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2007-06-04T224004Z_01_N04192811_RTRIDST_0_USA-TREASURY-DEBT-LIMIT.XML
No offense, but…..yawn. Like the gubmint cares about it fiduciary responsibility. Until everyone gets serious about money, creation of money, entitlements, debt, etc. the sky is the limit for these clowns. Sad to say that the entire system is gamed, rigged, setup, whatever you want to call it.
Bottom line…
Sell your soul, get on the gravy train, get all you can get and then get out of dodge unless you are like Strom Thurmond and die in office. What a joke our economy has become.
Does anyone other than Ron Paul care?
btw………that $8.965 billion is in fact $8.965 trillion. ie…….$8,965,000,000,000.
I got bored and stopped watching, but did the Dem contenders have any coherent thoughts on the economy? Any idea that the game is up and the ground is giving way?
Bwaaahhhhaaaa you made a funny…
Mike Gravel? tho he makes Ron Paul seem calm and mellow.
I can’t imagine how this fraud will ever be resolved. After all appraisals are best efforts at best. How do you prove fraud?
I can imagine the next hot employment field will be Lawyering up.
I know mr. lackner and have done a ton of business with him in the past. He is a class act and one of the hardest workers out there.. He is the good part of the industry.
People apply for mulitple loans at one time on a number of properties.. it is the lenders job to check inquiries on the credit report.. meaning call the person who ran the credit and get the details.. lenders dropped the ball and make it easier to steal from them.. they left the vault open and put a milk and cookies arrow pointing in…
No, you can get around an inquiry check fairly easily, it’s called re-issue
Realtor fight!
I got my money on Mr. IS.
C’mon Johnny come lately beachhunter!
So, I’m sitting with a broker…. a lady that owns/runs an office with 12 Realtors working out of her office.
I’m willing to dump for $10-20K under market just to get out ASAP…
So, we’re chatting and she’s 100% convinced we’ll see no more than 5-10% more drop over the next 6 months, then that will be bottom. Foreclosure are what is causing the problem, and the bulk of the resets will be done in the second half of the year.
Yes, says I, but it takes at least 3 months to get someone out of the house after they default. And it will take, many, many more months for the banks to unload. So, year minimum…. She’s forced to admit it could be at least a year.
And, there are tens of thousands of prepared sites in new home developments waiting to be built, and tens of thousands more with the permits approved and at least part of the infrastructure in place. Even if the current developers go bankrupt, those sites will be sold off at auction and a new developer will buy the land cheaply and build and sell into the saturated market. We have many years worth of prepared sites that must be built on or owners in those partially built neighborhoods are screwed.
True, she admits.
And a huge number of people have HELOC’ed their houses to the top of the bubble market prices and those people will be unable to make payments and unable to sell, so there will be a huge second round of foreclosures folloing the first round….
Yes, every day I get approached by several people that owe more than their house is worth and are begging me to find them a buyer willing to pay over market. More than half my listings right now are people that bought below market, but due to refi and HELOC are now forced to look for a short-sale oppertunity.
So, we moved onto affordability. The 1/3rd monthly income RoT… Oh, if that is used, we have a long way to go to hit bottom she says.
And rent? Why would I buy a $280K house with $2500 a month payments when I can rent the same house for $1300 a month. Oh, yeah, she says… Rents are very soft. No, says I. Rents are in line with what people can afford. House prices have to come back down.
Hmmmmm…. Yeah. 2 agents in my company have sold their houses and are now renting. I figured it was just because of reduced income… but yeah.. that may be a very smart move.
She’s the insider…. I’m educating her??? As the conversation went on, I felt like she was getting it. Prices ARE going to fall back to the levels of 2002, adjusted up for inflation. My house she wants to list for $249K, that I think should be listed for $240K, is going to be worth $150K AT BEST!!!!!
Nice work. In conclusion you should’ve gotten up and said “thanks, based on this conversation I’ve decided to sell this place myself.”
The market is trying to educate her, she’s just not listening.
This is what happens when your “job” has no barrier to entry.
Why don’t you look at selling it yourself? If you can really undercut the market it should be easy to do. That’s another 3-6% that you will save as well.
This is almost surreal. Almost like out of the Twilight Zone. One really needs to figure out who is the one living in the parallel universe these days. The exact same rational seems to be going on in the global stock markets these days and the lunatics seems to be running all the asylums everywhere. How does all of this end????
I don’t see the problem with mortgage fraud.
Let’s say that a home fraudulently sells for 20% more than it’s true “value”. who cares? just wait a year. RE always goes up at least 20% per year in perpetuity.
Even if it’s 100% overvalued, you only have to hold on to it for 5 years… hold it for 6 years and you make a 20%+ profit!
yippee.
good thing RE never goes down, or we’d be in trouble
If it goes up 40% next year there is even less trouble…
I know you’re joking. But you’re not following the plot: the house doesn’t really “sell” for 20% more…. they get cash back at closing and NEVER make a payment. The criminal walks away with cash, the lenders get a worthless house. Crime goes un-punished, more crime is financed, America becomes even more of a cesspool.
Think i will go and try a rock to hide under. This is Extreme.
“Home prices grow at slowest pace in 14 years”
http://tinyurl.com/2xhacp
“Home prices did not keep pace with the overall level of inflation during the quarter. As the housing market settles near the bottom of its cycle during the second half of this year, national home price growth will probably slow further, with price declines in many parts of the country, said Freddie Mac Vice President and chief economist Frank Nothaft.”
Was Frank the guy who played Subliminal Man on SNL? Love how he conveniently inserted that comment in……
“Existing home sales rose in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter, on a seasonally adjusted basis, but were down more than 9 percent from a year ago and as a result home price growth decelerated further,” he said in a statement.
Nice spin job, Frank. A 9 percent decline is just “decelerating price growth.” Bleh.
That isn’t what the article said. It said that SALES (i.e., the number of completed transactions) declined 9% year-over-year, and PRICES rose 2.8% year-over-year.
Yes, journalists don’t know as much math as an 8th grader, and they often bungle these statistics, but this article looks OK aside from the questionable prediction in the final paragraph.
At least there are jobs and low taxes in AZ.
I would be careful of low taxes! Don’t buy a home. I own property in Sedona and my raw land went up 70% in one year. I have appealed the tax increase and I am still waiting. I feel the POLITICIANS are robbing the property owners in this scam as they never wanted the values to come down as that was more money for THEM!!!!!!
RE may not always go up, but the size of government will always grow larger unless there is a revolution.
Cinch
With all the fraud, scams and WHO the hell knows really OWNS TITLE to these frigging houses, you better believe it’s really “Buyer Beware” for a long time to come.
OK, so when is it going to penetrate Wall Street that home prices are not only NOT rising in reality, but that they’re actually in free fall? Here in Ventura County, the official median has fallen 6.7% but if you factor out the bottom end of the market disappearing and remove the properties inflated by these cash out scams, I suspect price/sq ft has probably fallen by more than 10% in the past year.
So WHEN is Wall Street going to get it?!?! Are they THAT stupid or are they expecting some election year bailout? I’m getting worried about my 2008 puts.
Everybody’s on board for the hyperinflation but us?
Seriously, there is no other reason for the stock market to go up, IMHO. The “war on savers” continues…
“According to the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, in 2006, California had more than one-third of the nation’s suspicious loan activity at federally insured lenders.”
Nah. You think?.
The US Dept of Treasury needs to get its shit together because we’ve been discussing that subject FOR MONTHS already on these blogs.
THAT’S precisely the reason why sane buyers ARE NOT BUYING at this time. After all, who wants to compete for a home with a penniless douchebag who’s having free money thrown at him by unscrupulous lenders?. I’ll re-enter the buyers market when the playing field is once again level (if ever) and all these deadbeat “buyers” -who don’t have a dime in cash to drop dead on- are finally wiped out of the buyers pool. Or just plain wiped-out.
Whichever comes first.