The Pendulum Has Swung In The Opposite Direction
The Arizona Daily Star. “A consumer-rights group is warning people obtaining mortgages to read and understand the documents so that they don’t lose their homes. Sophia Tesch of East Valley ACORN said…lenders and brokers have ignored borrowers’ ability to pay and put them into loan agreements that are bound to go into default.”
“The call for more consumer education is getting the backing of Stan Lund, the incoming president of the Arizona Association of Mortgage Brokers. Lund said he has seen more fraud committed this year in Arizona than ever before. He said a loan officer who commits some misdeed might be fired by the broker or the bank.”
“‘But they go right down the street and get a new job,’ Lund said, because they have no license that can be revoked. He said licensing won’t stop all fraud. ‘But it would stop it the second time,’ Lund said.”
“State Rep. Steve Gallardo even went so far as to suggest at a Tuesday press conference that the Legislature should outlaw certain types of mortgages. But Gallardo said the simpler, and potentially more politically acceptable, option may be better education of would-be borrowers.”
“‘They’re not aware that in three years or two years that rate is going to fluctuate,’ Gallardo said. ‘So they’re going from a $500-a-month house payment all the way up to a $1,000-a-month house payment.’”
From USA Today. “Buying real estate seemed a no-brainer five years ago. Cheap loans were easy to get. Home prices were soaring. How things have changed.”
“Financial adviser Dave Yeske was featured in (a) 2002 story because he was being barraged with people selling stocks to buy homes.”
“‘The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction, he says now. ‘The clients that sold stocks to buy spec houses in Arizona are telling me they’re under water, can’t rent them and they wish they left all the money in the stock market.’”
“Some real estate investors are sticking with housing, in the belief that the bottom has been formed. Scott Hibner sold his investment properties in Las Vegas and used the proceeds to buy rental properties in Austin, where he thinks the prospects are brighter. He’s planning on holding the properties for five to 10 years and not going ‘for a quick flip.’”
“Others, like Nigel Swaby, a mortgage broker in Salt Lake City, are reluctant stock investors. Fearing the prices on two investment properties he owned in Salt Lake City could decline, he sold them in 2005.”
“Swaby wants to get back into real estate and has been hunting for homes to buy, but feels prices are still too inflated. ‘There aren’t a ton of deals out there,’ he says.”
The Transcript Bulletin from Utah. “It could be a long, dry summer for home sellers at the top end of the local housing market. About 111 houses in the price range of $300,000 to $1.4 million are on the market in Tooele Valley, according to the Wasatch Front Regional Listing Service.”
“But real estate agents believe those houses could be up for sale for several more months because finding buyers for such pricey real estate is particularly difficult at a time when the market is cooling off.”
“Sales of homes in Tooele Valley jumped dramatically from 2004 to 2006, but have leveled off in 2007. During first quarter 2007, 32 houses sold in the Grantsville area at a median price of $259,547 & up 58 percent in price from this time last year.”
“‘We’ve had a lot of spec homes pop up in Grantsville,’ said Tooele County Board of Realtors President Michelle Warner. ‘There are between 20 and 22 houses built and standing without a buyer. Most of these are not built by local builders, but builders outside the area. I think these outside builders are anticipating a big influx of people moving into Grantsville.’”
“Broker Brad Sutton said builders speculating they will find a buyer once a house is built is a new trend in Tooele Valley.”
“‘Builders have been more willing to build spec homes the past two years,’ Sutton said. ‘Before they would do just the opposite & they would make sure they had a buyer. In fact, prices were rising so fast that some builders did not want to have a buyer early on. Because most of these spec homes were in the $300,000 range, it would take them up to six months to build. By the time they had it built, a $300,00 house would be worth an additional $27,000.’”
“Tooele Prudential Real Estate owner Vickie Griffith said there are still several mid-range-priced houses on the market in Tooele Valley.”
“‘It is good for a buyer right now because there is a wide selection of houses and properties,’ she said. ‘The only problem is that it is hard to find anything under $130,000. We don’t have affordable new houses.’”
‘Stan Lund, the incoming president of the Arizona Association of Mortgage Brokers…said he has seen more fraud committed this year in Arizona than ever before.’
This is going on all over the place in AZ right now, IMO.
‘Scott Hibner sold his investment properties in Las Vegas and used the proceeds to buy rental properties in Austin, where he thinks the prospects are brighter. He’s planning on holding the properties for five to 10 years and not going ‘for a quick flip.’
Perhaps someone from the Austin area can comment on whether prices and rents make sense in Austin right now? If not, this another guy just speculating with his windfall.
Don’t know about Austin but maybe he spread it out over more properties and needed debt to get there. 10 years sounds realistic if he can carry it that far.
“10 years sounds realistic if he can carry it that far.”
If the properties pencilled out as rentals, then he would not have to worry about how long he could carry them. Unless you are pretty sure that high future property price inflation is going to overpower the deflationary force of a national-level real estate glut, then this does not seem to be the time to be gambling on future capital gains to offset current negative cash flow.
Agreed.
People forgot, or conveniently ignored, this simple math the last 5-10 years. Nothing less than a 12-plex in crappy parts of town, with crappy construction pencils here. Not without a hefty down payment, in which case the opportunity cost of your money will have been conveniently ignored.
Even people having a rough go of things still think RE is the best investment vehicle. Hopefully that’s changing.
Also, part of this guy’s strategy to buy more property probably has to do with avoiding capital gains tax.
And by ‘may need debt’ I mean he can lock in inexpensive debt now… who knows in a year or more.
Right now, things seem pretty balanced. Last year, there was a tremendous surge of interest in buying rental property in Austin. Almost daily, I would get a flyer or a postcard expressing interest in buying my duplex. Property values have increased about 8% but so have rents. So, the fundamentals are still ok - you can safely cash flow a mind to low end property with 20% down. It is important to note that Texas has very high property taxes. So, when you look at the median home price - please note that taxes are higher forcing property values down.
There are two factors for concern: 1) Downtown condos. There is a flood of upscale downtown condos being built right now. I would safely estimate that 1/2 of these units are being bought by investors looking for a short term investment based on rapid appreciation. Most will be ready for occupancy in 2008 or 2009. I think the influx of these condos will flood the rental market similar to other cities. 2) There were a lot of speculators who bought upper end homes in 2006. These people were cashing out of Arizona, Nevada, etc.. and coming here. It is difficult to rent a large upscale home and still cash flow. So, a lot of these people will be looking to sell in the next year or so.
Finally, it’s important to remember that Texas has a lot of land and we love to build highways. So, there is always a cooling factor from new developments being built on the outskirts of town. Central Austin (especially certain neighborhoods) is very “bubbly” in terms of real estate behavior but most of Austin remains affordable. We will see a leveling effect from lender tightening but probably not any dramatic falls like California is prone to.
Ah yes, the poor victims got too much money.
Bullcrap!
They wanted in on the boom, thinking their purchase was going to gain massive value so they didn’t care how much it cost.
“‘The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction, he says now. ‘The clients that sold stocks to buy spec houses in Arizona are telling me they’re under water, can’t rent them and they wish they left all the money in the stock market.’”
I guess we don’t have to worry about all that underwater real estate investment money getting plowed back into stocks?
There is more bad news. I can spot 15 foot crocodiles sliding from the banks into the river. And they haven’t had anything to eat for months except popcorn.
“Others, like Nigel Swaby, a mortgage broker in Salt Lake City, are reluctant stock investors. Fearing the prices on two investment properties he owned in Salt Lake City could decline, he sold them in 2005.”
“Swaby wants to get back into real estate and has been hunting for homes to buy, but feels prices are still too inflated. ‘There aren’t a ton of deals out there,’ he says.”
LMAO!!!!!!!!!!! Last time I saw anything about Nigel, he was giving Casey a back rub and tongue bath.
If you want to see something funny do a google search for Nigel Swaby. The second link is a YouTube video from one of his fans. A little further down the search page and you have the caseypedia page about him.
Thanks, turns out this clown was trying to engage in a battle of wits over at the Silicon Investor Website under the SLCMORTAGES ID claiming how SLC was making money hand over foot and it was different there. He got his ass handed to him and hasn’t posted in a while. What happened to Robert Cote ?
Robert runs the exurbanation blog @ blogspot. It’s currently a site for Casey haterz, but needs a new focus.
Why? He’s baaaaack…
You got to love how the Swabtard manages to chime in on everything. I don’t think it was that long ago he was talking about how awesome SLC was and 20% yoy returns and…
Nigel seems like a two-faced broker pimp to me. He continually pumps up the SLC market like there’s deals everywhere and we should all ignore the pricing fundamentals because there’s jobs everywhere and the economy is booming.
This article relates that he sold his properties 2 years ago out of fear for declining prices. Why sell? Hell, if things are that good you should hold on longer! So, when the media catches him with his pants down he immediately turns to his blog to try and save face. I’m paraphrasing, but he goes on the attack saying that the media twisted his story and that it just goes to show you can’t trust them. It’s the media’s fault!
Here:
http://slcrealestate.blogspot.com/
One of the sharpest reversals has been in the forecast price change for new homes. In January, the group said the median home should appreciate 3 percent in 2007.
While the year-end totals will be weaker than it first thought, the trade group said it expected to see signs of recovery by the end of 2007 when the pace of existing home sales should increase. The recovery for new homes should lag, though, the group said.
“Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year,” said Lawrence Yun, the group’s senior economist.
What a joke
What is Gary Watts saying these days? Maybe he and Lawrence Yun should team up?
“The call for more consumer education is getting the backing of Stan Lund, the incoming president of the Arizona Association of Mortgage Brokers. Lund said he has seen more fraud committed this year in Arizona than ever before. He said a loan officer who commits some misdeed might be fired by the broker or the bank.”
“‘But they go right down the street and get a new job,’ Lund said, because they have no license that can be revoked. He said licensing won’t stop all fraud. ‘But it would stop it the second time,’ Lund said.”
Why aren’t the fraudsters prosecuted when they get fired? Maybe the authorities should go after the lenders that don’t report when crime has been committed?
The reason is that in Arizona there is a loophole in the law that in essence prevents mortgage fraud from being a crime. It takes a lot to litigate. The AG’s office is trying to put a law through the state house to define mortgage fraud as a crime and enable courts to prosecute as such. It is not the only type of consumer protection bill that on the table that the AZ legislature is ignoring this session. I hope that we can do better after the 2008 elections.
Speaking of fraud in AZ… Today we saw an ad in the paper RE section (Tucson) for a house in the subdivision where we’re renting, listed at $410K, with $90K cash back to the buyer. Saw a similar case on CL for Tucson a couple days ago. Isn’t this really conspiracy to commit fraud, by both the seller and the buyer, even if they’re not in cahoots beforehand and just going to take off with the cash? Both seller and buyer know the transaction price is way above the true value, and they also know that the transaction will only go through if the appraisal comes in at their fictitious transaction price. So they’re conspiring to keep information from the lender, as well as from potential future buyers in the same area, since the fictitious price will be used as a comp for future sales. Can’t they be prosecuted using criminal conspiracy laws, as are used against organized crime?
“Can’t they be prosecuted using criminal conspiracy laws, as are used against organized crime?”
Yes. Probably not RICO, though, since it requires a pattern over time of (at least two) illegal activities:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racketeer_Influenced_and_Corrupt_Organizations_Act
But you can use criminal conspiracy, wire fraud and other laws against mortgage frauds:
http://www.federalcrimes.com/mortgagefraud.htm
Look at this chart. See the triangle he drew on there? Which way is it gonna go?
https://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK/File/UMVquizzes/sg534205.gif
Um, what is being graphed?
In other Tucson news, we have the latest economic outlook forecast from the University of Arizona:
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/hourlyupdate/186392
I was at this event, and permit me to share the following observations:
REIC largely absent. In years past, these gatherings were rife with people from the large real estate agencies, mortgage lenders, title companies, etc. And most of the sponsored tables were purchased by the big local realty companies. No more. I didn’t see a single sponsored table sporting an agency sign. Most of them were for the banks.
I also noticed a bit more realism in the way the forecasts were delivered, and how they were received by the audience. A lot of those present are in business and know firsthand about slowing home sales, retail being flat, job growth declining, etc. So, there was no false bravado before the forecasters launched into their presentations.
As for local resale market stabilizing? I’m not seeing that in central Tucson. If anything, I’m seeing sales continuing to be slow, and more inventory being added.
For anyone who lives in Utah–is there any reason in the world someone would want to live in Grantsville? Seems to be in the middle of nowhere and pretty darned far from SLC proper.
Maybe the developer wanted to be far away from potential buyers so it wouldn’t sell and he could make even more money?
Grantsville is in the middle of nowhere but not really that far time wise from Salt Lake. Grantsville is only about 40 miles from downtown Salt Lake and is almost all freeway that really doesn’t see any stop and go except during rush hour by the main Tooele / Grantsville exit. I don’t live out there but I have coworkers who do, it usually only takes them 45-50 minutes to drive in during rush hour, its 35-40 minutes any other time of the day.
The real question would be is there any reason in the world why someone would spend a dime of 200k to live there. The answer is no.
Agreed, people used to live in Tooele / Grantsville because you could get a large house or some property for very cheap. I have a coworker who bought out there a couple of years ago for well under 200k for a newer 3000+ sqft house. Now that price isn’t an advantage I can’t think of any good reason to live out there.
That place is the armpit of Utah. “They’re not making any more land”…but it’s OK because there’s always places like Tooele. Builders sprawled out on the other side of the western hills because the the whole valley is now covered in stucco-box-farms. Tooele is one big sprawling trailer park.
It sure does smell like an armpit if the wind is blowing in the right direction.
Ugh, totally agreed. I know we’re in trouble when TOOLE RE has reached ridiculous proportions. Wasn’t there supposed to be some kind of NASCAR racetrack out there? Draw your own conclusions….
Ugh, totally agreed. I know we’re in trouble when *Tooele* RE has reached ridiculous proportions. Wasn’t there supposed to be some kind of NASCAR racetrack out there? Draw your own conclusions….
sorry, double post
I’m only guessing at the pronunciation of “Tooele” but …
Knock, knock.
Who’s there?
Tooele.
Tooele who?
Too eel to open your door becawz zee air eet smells like a armpeet.
(too-ill a), so yes, it works
Too-ill a, that’s right.
I couldn’t believe my eyes that anyone built $million+ homes there! Of course it would have to have been an out of state developer, because anyone who lives in Utah could tell you that Toole is DISMAL. Calling it the armpit is an understatement! Utah is a beautiful state (somewhat ruined by sprawl) and there still are plenty of really nice places within 40 minutes of SLC.
I don’t know about NASCAR, but the Bonneville Salt Flats have been a popular for racing for many years, since the 30’s, and quite few land speed records were set there.
Thank goodness for google: it looks like in Miller Sports Park they hold NASCAR events…. not like anyone here cares to know…
Oh, and another anecdote: I knew someone from Tooele who tried to boil the water off of battery acid using his stovetop. I swear I’m not making this up.
Maybe the developer only wanted to attract out-of-town investors who knew nothing about Tooeles history as an environmental hazard area? Building where there is no local demand is one way to increase the percentage of potential out-of-town investors.
Also see Daybreak at the other end of the valley for more building fun on what should have been designated as a superfund clean up site. Plenty of good ideas to go around there it seems.
Over a million in Tooele? Good jumpin’ gol a’mighty, lay off the meth, folks.
Now if the house came with the fine Miss Tooele County with whom I was once favored to go out, I might go as high as $200K.
“‘It is good for a buyer right now because there is a wide selection of houses and properties,’ she said. ‘The only problem is that it is hard to find anything under $130,000. We don’t have affordable new houses.’”
It would be a miracle if you found anything for under 130K withing 100 miles of LAX.
No, little missy. It’s good to be a buyer because it means you haven’t bought. And the longer you remain a buyer is even better.
I don’t understand. How could it be good for a buyer if there are no affordable new houses?
“…It would be a miracle if you found anything for under 130K withing 100 miles of LAX…”
Bwahhhhhaaaaa 100 miles? 100 miles?, Try the next State over you’ll have better luck there.
But there should be plenty under 100K in the next couple of years.
Maybe in Barstow
that should read “within 1500 miles of LAX”….
“It would be a miracle if you found anything for under 130K withing 100 miles of LAX.”
That perspective is part of the problem here in UT: too many equity locusts and specuvestors came here and blindly paid whatever price was asked (often in excess). No due diligence, no appraisals, “heck, it’s way cheaper than SoCal! I’ll take it!”
“It could be a long, dry summer for home sellers at the top end of the local housing market. About 111 houses in the price range of $300,000 to $1.4 million are on the market in Tooele Valley, according to the Wasatch Front Regional Listing Service.”
Tooele has a top end???
A long, dry forever! (I was going to say, a decade or two, but by that time these houses will have crumbled into the ground.)
Zillow has my old man’s house in FL at 832 k
he can’t get a bid at 750K
Zillow is trying to figure out the value of homes while looking out the rear view mirror. It doesn’t work very well when the boat is approaching a waterfall.
There is a place we are watching, owned by a relo company, dropped from 999 to 699, no bites, more than a year on the market, zillow still says 1.1 million, I think there are just so few sales thus no comps.
Yeah I wondered about Zillow. I sold in 06 for $900k. I reduced a lot and sold in 3 days and thought I was smart and that $900 would look real good in a year or two. But Zillow has the price at about $1.1 with a dramatic increase the past 3 months even though no comps sold in the past 3 months and the zip code median is dropping. WTF do they use to get their prices?
zillow doesn’t include cash-back. You could sell it for $1.1 million, but you’d have to give $100K to the buyer. Net-net. You lost nothing.
“‘They’re not aware that in three years or two years that rate is going to fluctuate,’ Gallardo said. ‘So they’re going from a $500-a-month house payment all the way up to a $1,000-a-month house payment.’”
Maybe I’m just hyper-sensitive to this bullsh*t but why is it that when pulling numbers out of their a$$, they always go with reasonable sounding numbers?
No one has a friggin $500/month HOUSE payment. The guy should have said a $1500/month payment resetting to $3000/month, THAT would have received the appropriate attention by the uninformed as to what is going on. Instead, the guy uses the correct 100% payment increase but does so in a way as to sound inconsequential to the average reader. Is this really unintentional?
There are still a few places where you can have a house payment for $500/mo, but even in flyover country you’re looking closer to $1000/mo. And in AZ, I don’t think that there are too many places where you could find a house for that cheap. I don’t know if it’s unintentional or if these people are just really bad at math. I suspect that some of those who work in tangentially related areas, see the numbers (oh look the median is up to 275k) but don’t even really process them (throw some numbers into an amortization calculator and realize that their area is hosed).
I agree auger-inn . Why doesn’t he use the figure for the National medium price at least .
Manufactured and mobile homes, including the lot, can involve $500/mo “house” payments. But my understanding has always been that conventional lenders didn’t want to deal with that stuff.
I was at the press conference. This was an answer to an on the spot question. I think he was just pulling random numbers off the top of his head. I agree with you, your numbers have more of an impact.
OMG, Spec houses in Tooele Valley is like putting spec houses up in Barstow. It’s the armpit of Utah, bordering the lovely Salt Flats and close to the shores of the Great Salt Lake which depending on which way the wind is blowing produces an ghastly stench that the locals call “lake stink”. It’s a great place to put a meth lab or dispose of bodies. Ok in all fairness there are a few parts of Toole Valley that could be considered nice, but spec houses? (no offense to anyone living there)
Would you like a little nerve gas with that McMansion?
http://www.deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,250010923,00.html
Well that puts a dent in my dream to buy a 1.1 million dollar home in the Tooele valley…
Seriouly, that is insane, who the heck would want to live within 10 miles of that place?
Then again, maybe there’s something in the gas that makes people want to buy 1.1 million dollar homes on an interest only loan.
mcat, I’m offended and I don’t even live there!!!
he he j/k…
Seattle is Number 1!
Rise in Home Inventory
Continues to Hurt Prices
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
Growing inventories of unsold homes continue to weigh on the U.S. housing market, portending more downward pressure on prices, the latest data show.
The number of homes listed for sale in 18 major U.S. metropolitan areas at the end of May was up 5.1% from April, according to figures compiled by ZipRealty Inc., a national real-estate brokerage firm based in Emeryville, Calif. The data cover all listings of single-family homes, condos and town houses on local multiple-listing services in those areas.
…
Some of the biggest inventory increases last month came in the metro areas of Seattle, up 12% from April; San Francisco, 11%; Los Angeles, 10%; and Washington, D.C., 9%.
Inventories also are up sharply from a year earlier. For the 15 cities for which year-earlier comparisons were available, combined inventory was up 29% from May 2006.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118109681582926024.html?mod=homes_left_column_hs
What do we need to finish off the beast, that is the housing bubble…
A silver bullet?
A wooden stake to it’s heart?
A healthy dose of cleansing sunlight?
10% down payment requirement
ought to do it
It’s already mortally wounded…but it’s still quite dangerous. Just stay in your foxhole and be ready to shoot anybody you see going over to try to help it. It’ll go down eventually and nobody else will get hurt if we just keep our distance and everyone leaves it alone.
Long-term rates going above 7.5%
GS, I thought I remember some Seattle posters saying that area was “special” and “immune from a downturn” due to all the jobs, the culture…blah blah blah
“GS, I thought I remember some Seattle posters saying that area was “special” and “immune from a downturn” due to all the jobs, the culture…blah blah blah”
Same goes for the Bay Area -);
I saw some idiot on PO.com today claiming that Canada was different. Oh yes, Canada is different, but not in a good way.
But Seattle IS different! We’re about six months behind the rest of the country.
Ok, so that’s not a very big difference. And before long we won’t be different at all.
“Buying real estate seemed a no-brainer five years ago.”
It still is a no-brainer: don’t do it.
“Financial adviser Dave Yeske was featured in (a) 2002 story because he was being barraged with people selling stocks to buy homes.”
“‘The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction, he says now. ‘The clients that sold stocks to buy spec houses in Arizona are telling me they’re under water, can’t rent them and they wish they left all the money in the stock market.’”
Talk about all the wrong moves. 2002 was the time to be plowing money INTO the stock market. Now they are going to sell the RE at a loss and buy the market high!?
I’ve got to find one of these people and buy their house at the 2002 price or less, using 2007 stock market money that was invested in 2002 and has grown 80%.
Sporty
Bella Terra may add 500 housing units
The owner of Bella Terra plans to add about 500 apartments and condos to the shopping center in Huntington Beach and expand the retail space.
http://tinyurl.com/22857q
It’s about time they got rid of those derelict Monkey Ward buildings, but are they going to add five more floors to the parking structure? Parking at BT is becoming uncomfortably similar to parking at South Coast Plaza before Christmas.
Monkey Wards…heh heh…the only place you could buy a chain saw and a suit at the same time.
I’ll stay away from Beach Blvd. around the holidays…
Help for first-time homebuyers
http://tinyurl.com/2wjbyh
Here’s one I’ll bet you didn’t think of. Props to Cote for finding this one:
http://gayloan.net/
ha ha ha
that’s hot…
er, I mean if you’re gay…
My favorite one of the week -
http://www.rockstarloans.com/
Get the house and that RockStar treatment you deserve!
I am reluctant to click, is it safe for work?
Sweet, another “affordable” program I make too much money to qualify for. Yet I still make too little to buy a house in OC.
“‘It is good for a buyer right now because there is a wide selection of houses and properties,’ she said. ‘The only problem is that it is hard to find anything under $130,000. We don’t have affordable new houses.’”
You can’t find anything nice where I live in North Bethesda/Rockville, MD under $700,000.
Come to Southern Cal, and then get ready to cry blood as you look at the prices in beautiful Stanton, Westminster, Anaheim, Redlands, etc. You might want to go check out the houses as well, just wear a bullet proof vest and a helmet.
North Bethesda? Is that like Occaquin Park? Hahaha…
I knew this woman who lived in Occaquin Park and threw a fit because according to the PO she lived in “Woodbridge”.
I always knew Bethesda was “better” than Rockville when I lived there but I could never understand why… It took a couple of years for me to warm up to Rockville, but when I did I felt like it was prettier and more walkable than Bethesda. Also the high school had working A/C, which is more than I could say of Bethesda (they had to relocate summer school in the middle of July the year I went).
Better red line service, though, and more buses. Seemed more urban and the houses were smaller and more boring, so I still just don’t get why Bethesda is supposed to be “nice”.
Now, Chevy Chase actually looks nicer, so I could see why the “better people” would flock there.
Meanwhile the economy is humming along quite nicely……. not.
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/archives
“Monthly Commentary: Jun. 6, 2007
GDP Contracted Net of Nonsensical Personal Consumption Surge / Seasonal Factor Distortions Boosted Payrolls Again / M3 Growth at 33-Year High / Fed Remains Impotent / Stock Market Turmoil, Dollar Sell-Off and Gold Boom Just Matter of Time / Last month’s key data generally showed a worsening inflationary recession. Relative monthly strength, reported for several indicators of business activity, were not too meaningful. Where the affected numbers are highly volatile, of suspect quality or subject to unusual seasonal factors, countertrend reporting usually is just a one-month aberration. Changes in economic direction are foreshadowed by shifts in leading indicators, not by shifts in coincident or lagging indicators, and most of the better indicators continue to confirm a deepening economic contraction. On the inflation front, annualized CPI inflation, year-to-date April, is running 4.8% to 7.4% (seasonally adjusted or unadjusted). Annual growth in the SGS Ongoing M3 has broken above 13%, rivaling levels seen before the severe 1973/1975 inflationary recession.”
Why aren’t the fraudsters prosecuted when they get fired? Maybe the authorities should go after the lenders that don’t report when crime has been committed?
They don’t report a crime they may be involved with because they made money on this fradulant activity. They want to get rid of the $hit and hope the smell goes away!
4
Quite the Pandora’s box of information coming out of the housing market now. I suppose we will soon hear Bush doing speeches, since the media is FINALLY starting to report what is happening since it is completely and utterly obvious for even the drooling masses to figure out. I suspect in the next Bush speech we will hear “there is plenty of good coming out of the housing market the liberal media is bias and only showing the bad part of the housing market”. At this point in the speech he will bring out Jimmy the retarded kid who just bought a new house in So Cal on an ARM with no money down. “If Jimmy can do it, so can everyone own the American dream!” He will close the speech with.
BUY Today…and let me Gloat as you Struggle Hopelessly Under Water for YEARS to COME
“‘The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction, he says now. ‘The clients that sold stocks to buy spec houses in Arizona are telling me they’re under water, can’t rent them and they wish they left all the money in the stock market.’”
Yikes! Now I’m thinking this is a good time to shift out of stocks and more into short term treasuries! Although the speculators may push the indices up huge like they did to RE.
Any more contrarian advice out there?
Bill, given any consideration to those ProShares short & ultrashort ETFs?
Tj, I am ignorant about shorting stocks. I am not into ETFs for now, but will probably get into Vanguard’s VNQ in about 5 or 6 years. That’s when it should bottom. I’m dollar cost averaging, and that method fits mutual funds well.
http://www.utahrealestate.com/
Homes: 15,084
Last Year at this time about 7,000 to 8,000
It can only go up!
To give you an idea of the difference in price value, you can Zillow properties in Wheeling, West Virgina. Houses are going for 10-20 dollars per square foot. A beat up shack in Los Angeles is going for 700 per square foot.
That means you could buy 70 houses in Wheeling for the price of 1 in Los Angeles.
No, I am not kidding you.
Utah MLS Inventory Skyrocketing !
Houses: 15,694
Man! It’s really going up quick!
http://www.utahrealestate.com/
Poised for 16,000
Boy that was fast ! ! !
http://www.utahrealestate.com/
All Property Listings
Houses: 15955
Duplexes: 659
Undeveloped Land: 5564
Apartments: 84
Commercial: 795
Farm: 48
SOLIDLY OVER 16,000 !!
All Property Listings
Houses: 16287
Duplexes: 664
Undeveloped Land: 5687
Apartments: 83
Commercial: 792
Farm: 46