Waiting For The Demand To Flow In California
The Fresno Bee reports from California. “After years of seeing their buying power eroded by rising home prices, moderate-income home buyers in Fresno are starting to see some relief. That’s according to the California Association of Realtors’ First-time Buyer Affordability Index. For the first quarter of 2007, the affordability index for the Central Valley stood at 41%.”
“That’s up from 38% in the same quarter in 2006, and is the highest the index has been since the first quarter of 2005.”
“There’s a simple explanation for rising affordability, said Anthony Gamber, president of the Fresno Association of Realtors. ‘The market is tightening up,’ he said. ‘Sellers are getting more realistic’ about the prices they can demand, and builders of new homes are offering more and more incentives to lure buyers.”
“In fact, this year has seen the first fall in median home prices in the Fresno market since 2004, he said.”
“For Gamber, a real estate professional with 27 years of experience in the Fresno market, the trend reflects a return to normalcy. While the real estate boom of the past several years has been a driver of the region’s economy, ‘it is putting some people out of the market, which is sad.’”
“David Mendoza, executive director of the Community Housing Council of Fresno, agreed that moderate-income Fresno residents are seeing their housing options expand in this buyer’s market.”
“‘There’s more negotiating, whereas three or four years ago the sellers picked who they wanted,’ he said.”
“‘Right now we have a lot of supply on the market,’ said Doug Heffner, owner of Integrity Lending Group in Fresno. ‘People are waiting for the demand to flow, so prices are coming down.’”
“Another factor that could work against increasing affordability is the tightening of credit standards that has followed the collapse of the subprime mortgage industry.”
“‘If you were a live body a year ago, even two years ago, if you placed a mirror under your nose and it fogged up, you could get a home loan and get into a house,’ Heffner said of the lax standards some lenders pursued.”
The Desert Sun. “New-home sales dropped 57 percent across the Coachella Valley compared with a year ago, helping push down overall home sales volume and median prices, a new report shows.”
“Sales for all types of valley homes, new, resale and condos, dropped a combined 28 percent in April compared with April 2006, according to DataQuick.”
“The median price for a new valley home dipped 6.7 percent to $375,000, while the median price for all kinds of homes declined 2.6 percent in April to $390,000 compared with a year ago, DataQuick reported.”
“April’s sagging new-home sales came on the heels of a 53 percent sales decline in March, 43 percent in February and 23 percent in January, all compared with year-ago figures.”
“The drop-off in home sales volume during April marks the continuation of a trend not only valley-wide but in the Inland Empire and California. Southern California home sales sank to a 12-year low in April, led by striking sales drops in affordable neighborhoods.”
“Fred Bell, executive director of Southern California Builders Industry Association’s desert chapter, said the industry hopes for a rebound by early next year. A longer, drawn out downturn could prompt the valley’ s construction industry base to seek out more vibrant markets elsewhere.”
“‘We’re all very concerned about how long the retraction will last,’ Bell said.”
“As buyers, sellers and economists watch local, state and national figures to try to gain an understanding of the market, everyone is a bit confused, top experts say.”
“Many buyers and sellers are simply confused at this point, said economist John Husing, who studies the Inland Empire’s economy.”
“‘They’re saying, ‘I’m going to wait and see what’s going on,’ Husing said. ‘I think we’re involved in about an 18-month pause with an overall median price decline of 5 percent.’”
“To cope with the current downturn, new-home builders have aggressively managed inventories, trimmed staff and downsized some operations. Because ‘buyers have a lot of choices,’ builders are doing what they can to stand out, from implementing new designs to offering all kinds of incentives and amenities.”
“One clear indication is reflected in building permits that contractors have taken out. In La Quinta, for instance, 176 single-family home permits were taken out during the first quarter, compared with 377 during the first three months a year ago and 515 in the first quarter of 2005.”
“Statewide, 7,174 single-family home permits were pulled in April, a 37 percent drop from a year ago, California Building Industry Association reported.”
“Across Riverside County, where sales declined 45 percent in April, the median price dropped about 1 percent to $409,000 from $413,000 a year ago, DataQuick reported. In San Bernardino County, the median price climbed 2.8 percent to $370,000, despite a 46.7 percent drop in sales volume from a year ago.”
The Philippine News. “Jose Mercado couldn’t believe his eyes when he read the report of the California Association of Realtors last week that home sales were falling by 27.8 percent statewide.”
“Mercado was planning to sell his modest house in Riverside in the hope that he could make a killing and retire early in the Philippines. At the prevailing exchange rate, he told himself, he could easily sell his house for at least $1 million.”
“But fate had been unkind to him and many other residents in the area. ‘If the statistics are true, then, it means I am stuck with it. It means I can’t sell my house and relocate to other places,’ he surmised.”
“In the area where he lives, real estate prices are hardly moving. ‘There are very few buyers of existing houses,’ he confirmed. ‘Maybe, the buyers are waiting for prices to further dip,’ he guessed.”
“Last month, home sales in Riverside tumbled by 44.6 percent with buyers getting fewer by the day.”
From USA Today. “It’s easy to sour on real estate while…dealing with rental property and the associated costs, says Norma Solarz. Solarz, who has next to no retirement benefits, bought a property in Oakland for $225,000 in 1997 with plans to rent it out, collect income along the way, sell it down the road and use the proceeds as a retirement fund.”
“Things haven’t worked out the way she’d hoped. While the property has appreciated, being a landlord is a bigger hassle than she’d ever imagined. She’s plowed about $56,000 into the property for various repairs and had to deal with tenants and their problems no matter the time of day.”
“‘I’m not sure it’s worth the headache,’ she says, adding she’s prepared to sell the property as soon as housing prices firm up. She might have to wait awhile if current trends persist.”
“Some investors want to get out but fear they’re so far in the hole already that they don’t want to take the loss. Janice Burnham, who lives in San Francisco, bought a Silicon Valley home in 2002 and an investment property in Folsom, Calif., near Sacramento two years ago. She paid $353,000 for the investment property.”
“‘Everyone else was making money,’ she says. ‘I figured this was the way to make money. I’ve changed my opinion on that,’ she says.”
“Now she figures she would have trouble selling the Folsom home for $320,000, a loss she’s trying to avoid by renting the property. But that’s not going well, either, because she spends money for upkeep and struggles to find tenants. ‘It’s a lot of work for no gain,’ she says.”
‘A string quartet played and a crystal chandelier hung precariously from a crane as local officials marked the start of construction Friday for a Convention Center headquarters hotel they hope will be a catalyst for future downtown development. The 54-story, $4.5 billion project - funded with nearly $300 million in city investments - will become a mainstay of a new downtown Los Angeles, officials promised, bringing about a long-sought Renaissance merging sports, entertainment, tourism and business.’
‘We have met the mark when it comes to housing, Schatz said. ‘For the first time in decades, you see people pushing baby carriages and walking their dogs.’
‘The gateway to the San Gorgonio Pass and the desert that lies to the east, Calimesa is home to about 7,400 people. On Thursday, the City Council approved tentative tract maps for SummerWind Ranch, a development that, according to city estimates, could one day be home to 11,500 souls.’
‘Just us, we’re going to multiply the city’s population by 2 1/2,’ said Peter Johnson, senior project manager for SunCal Companies, the firm that’s developing SummerWind Ranch.’
‘Groundwater levels at one of Adelanto’s principal well fields has plummeted in the last three years, raising questions about the city’s ability to provide its residents with water.’
‘The groundwater decline coincides with the recent housing boom that grew Adelanto’s population by 28 percent from 21,000 in 2004 to 27,000 in 2007, according to the California Department of Finance. The city’s own demographic estimates predict Adelanto’s population could reach 39,000 by 2010.’
‘I don’t really see Adelanto running out of water,’ Brill said. ‘But I do see them having difficulty meeting current demands.’
“…you see people pushing baby carriages and walking their dogs”
No,no,no. This is downtown Los Angeles. You see people pushing crack and the Koreans woking their dogs.
What a joke. Pushing carts? Yeah maybe homeless carts. I’ve been down to downtown LA twice at night the last month and walked 3-4 blocks in both directions. Dowtown has a loooooong way to go - 10-15 yrs long. The place is deserted at night except for homeless and seedy looking people.
This clown is just another self-serving liar. Oh well take a number.
I live in LA. It’s the truth.
good one…lol
I’m sorry…”woking their dogs(?)” That has to be the funniest line I’ve heard in a week….
“woking their dogs”
I find this comment highly offensive, because as a member of PETA (people eating tasty animals), I do not find “dog” tasty. Now some stir fried carp sounds good.
Oh, eating is what we’re talking about. I thought you guys were talking about improper love for ones animal. Hey, I’ve seen it all in LA.
Do you mean you find the comment distasteful?
There has been a huge amt of hi-rise units going up along Flower/grand ave from approximately 8th st all way to past Olympic. I Used to be stationed in dwtn quite a bit during most of 2006 and this part of DWTN, called South Park District, is Hi-rise construction central. This where LA live 54 story bldg will be situated.
The Metro Blue line snakes along flower ave, going underground before intersecting the other metro lines at Wilshire/flower, so it goes right thru this district.
Big gamble on part of DWTN developers to cram all these hi-rises in an area which was/still is somewhat seedy. Have seen local residents walking their dogs on the barren concrete pavement with almost no shady trees/parks anywhere. Not as many homeless encampments here as in the little Tokyo/alameda ‘arts’ district or the seedy Fashion district, but South Park a long way from becoming a fashionable walkable DWTN residential district.
‘A string quartet played and a crystal chandelier hung precariously from a crane as local officials marked the start of construction Friday for a Convention Center headquarters hotel they hope will be a catalyst for future downtown development.”
Were they by any chance playing “Nearer my God to Thee” like the quartet in that scene from Titanic?
Oh, yeah - LOL!
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Los Angeles residents were urged on Wednesday to take shorter showers, reduce lawn sprinklers and stop throwing trash in toilets in a bid to cut water usage by 10 percent in the driest year on record.
ADVERTISEMENT
With downtown Los Angeles seeing a record low of 4 inches
of rain since July 2006 — less than a quarter of normal — and with a hot, dry summer ahead, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said the city needed “to change course and conserve water to steer clear of this perfect storm.”
It is the driest year since rainfall records began 130 years ago.
The Eastern Sierra mountains, where Los Angeles gets about half of its water supply, marked its second-lowest snowpack on record this year.
That and the lack of rainfall could force the nation’s second largest city into full drought mode in coming months, officials said.
Below average rainfall for the past few years has also turned the traditional summer southern California fire season into an all-round event. Firefighters battled two major brush fires in May alone, at the Los Angeles landmark Griffith Park and on the tourist island of Catalina.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070606/us_nm/drought_losangeles_dc
I know what they can drink!
Water=Wealth
What, the NAR Kool Aid?
People throw trash in their toilets?
Yeah, what’s with that?
“…you see people pushing baby carriages and walking their dogs”
He couldn’t possibly be serious…
hey, drug dealers have babies and dogs too. they are people too, you know.
Someone tried to mug me, literally, not panhandling but robbery, leaving my office in the safest area of downtown L.A. one week ago today. (Thank you to the inventor of pepper spray…) Anyone that says it’s safe (let alone nice) down here is clearly either delusional or has a reason to lie.
Sounds like you got away. Congratulations!
Nothing lower than criminals who prey on innocent people.
You’re right, there’s nothing safe about downtown LA.
>>“As buyers, sellers and economists watch local, state and national figures to try to gain an understanding of the market, everyone is a bit confused, top experts say.”
How odd. They (top experts weren’t ‘confused’ two years ago.
-Greg
“Fred Bell, executive director of Southern California Builders Industry Association’s desert chapter, said the industry hopes for a rebound by early next year. A longer, drawn out downturn could prompt the valley’ s construction industry base to seek out more vibrant markets elsewhere.”
good luck with that
“Husing said. ‘I think we’re involved in about an 18-month pause with an overall median price decline of 5 percent.’”
Do ” economists” just say whatever comes into their heads, or does their profession require the use of hard numbers to back up their opinions? Husing and Yun…flapping mouths, no facts.
Husing, you are an idioit or a liar. Nuff said.
‘and’, not ‘or’!
If a liar is too dumb to know the truth is their honesty moral? If a realtor falls in the woods does a flipper get their wings?
To call this guy a total idiot would be to insult the complete idiot!
You can’t take this dude seriously after what he said about a year ago. Remember this?……
“”The Inland Empire is the center of the universe,” quipped Husing, who has studied the region’s economics and politics for 40 years.”
That comment still send me to the floor like a helpless upside-down turtle laughing my fickin’ A off. Cah-mi-deeeeee!
I remember reading one of Husing’s articles in the OC Metro mag last year too…basically said the same thing…I couldn’t believe it…I thought I was behind the times or something…
Guess he’s just a regular comodian…
California…MET the June 2007 Mortgage RESETS.
And Lots, Lots MORE ON the WAY…PLAY that “JAWS” Music for the Bubble Bathers.
More popcorn and SPREAD that Bloody Fish CHUM Upon the Waters !
>That comment still send me to the floor like a helpless upside-down turtle laughing my fickin’ A off. Cah-mi-deeeeee!
Now I’m laughing my ass off lol thanks !!
I think I want to be an economist. It seems like an easy job with no responsibility. I think I would be good at it too, check it out:
“I think this market has definitely hit a bottom, more or less”
“In the long run prices only go up, unless they don’t”
“We have reached a new plateau of permanent prosperity”.
Piece of piss, really.
There are some good economists out there, like Professor William C. Wheaton at MIT, who has been featured on NPR discussing the housing bubble. He called this housing bubble thing a year ago in one of his papers, and he’s even got a cute little adjustable mortgage reset graph to back it up. (Let’s just say all hell will be breaking loose in 2008). His paper, entitled, “Past Housing ‘Cycles’ and the Current Housing ‘Boom’: What’s Different This Time?” can be found at:
http://www.web.mit.edu/cre/students/faculty/pdf/HousingBubble.pdf
Too many w’s in the link above, this is the correct link:
http://web.mit.edu/cre/students/faculty/pdf/HousingBubble.pdf
(interesting doc, BTW)
My favorite economic forecast “On one hand the bootom has been reached, on the other hand we have a big increase in inventory. If they had a third hand, they would use that too
Husing said. ‘I think we’re involved in about an 18-month pause with an overall median price decline of 5 percent.’”
Buwahahahahaa! Please, not while I’m drinking.
“A longer, drawn out downturn could prompt the valley’s construction industry base to seek out more vibrant markets elsewhere.” Like … Tooele! Like … Oracle Junction! Like … Rochester, NY! Like … Bismarck, ND! Like … Baghdad!
Ooooh, sounds like a threat. Yeah, quick, hurry.
Oh no! Now they’re outsourcing our houses!
Mr. Orwell, meet Mr. Brill…
‘I don’t really see Adelanto running out of water,’ Brill said. ‘But I do see them having difficulty meeting current demands.’
We’re not going to run out of water but we might not have any left.
“As buyers, sellers and economists watch local, state and national figures to try to gain an understanding of the market, everyone is a bit confused, top experts say.”
“Many buyers and sellers are simply confused at this point, said economist John Husing, who studies the Inland Empire’s economy.”
- Johnny, there is no confusion. So many illegals were allowed to purchase in the Inland Empire that it inflated prices. Now, we must wait out the foreclosures to clearly see the landscape again.
be careful in the IE, those illegals you are touting to get foreclosed mat turn the IE into “Tierra del Fuego”….
On a good note, that would help the view a great deal.
mat=may
Maybe the illegals pulled out 110% of equity and praised how great a country the USA is. They may have already made enough to retire back in Mexico. Heck, we give away money in this country.
I remember that in the 90s bust that some of the hispanic families I knew went back to the country of origin when they lost thier home. I don’t know of any personally who have returned this time. They all talk about retiring there, but none of them ever do. Once they have grandchildren, which can be as early as thier 30 or 40s, the whole dream of retirement on the rancho goes down the tubes.
What does this mean for this downturn? Higher crime, much higher unemployment, and further 3rd world-i-zation of socal.
Sad and true
Just one more kick in the nuts to the people that spend within their means and save.
“Many buyers and sellers are simply confused at this point, said economist John Husing, who studies the Inland Empire’s economy.”
Why do these people (aka “experts”) always get it wrong!?
John sweets: I am NOT confused at all. Actually, I am making a very well thought-out and considered decision to NOT buy! I am ~*not*~ confused by making my planned choice to WAIT until I decide to buy!
I am not here for YOU! You are here for ME!
Now my question to you (John H.) is: why are you not accepting reality?
Maybe YOU need psychotherapy.
~Misstrial
“Many buyers and sellers are simply confused at this point, said economist John Husing, who studies the Inland Empire’s economy.”
Hannibal Lecter: Then something woke you, didn’t it? Was it a dream? What was it?
Clarice Starling: I heard a strange noise.
Hannibal Lecter: What was it?
Clarice Starling: It was… screaming. Some kind of screaming, like a child’s voice.
Hannibal Lecter: What did you do?
Clarice Starling: I went downstairs, outside. I crept up into the barn. I was so scared to look inside, but I had to.
Hannibal Lecter: And what did you see, Clarice? What did you see?
Clarice Starling: Lambs. The lambs were screaming.
Hannibal Lecter: They were slaughtering the spring lambs?
Clarice Starling: And they were screaming
FB Lamb chops anyone ?
Yes, I had The Corrupt David Lereah for dinner. I ate his liver with some fava beans and a nice chianti.
“A lot of work for no gain”
Welcome to the investment world, moonbeam. I work 15 hours a day and many times have no gain. If you can’t deal with it, better stick with W-2 slavery.
Sounds like she had a wtf moment.
Stuck in a Folsom prison, of your own making?
“Now she figures she would have trouble selling the Folsom home for $320,000, a loss she’s trying to avoid by renting the property. But that’s not going well, either, because she spends money for upkeep and struggles to find tenants. ‘It’s a lot of work for no gain,’ she says.”
Good news Fresno folk! The housing slump is bringing down home prices, and affordability is as good as it’s been in a couple of years.
Bad news you Fresno saps…….the housing slump has put a lot of you out of work, or at least sent you back to that measly Central Valley wage job you had before the fun began. So screw affordability - you can’t afford a house period!
Hey, that hurts! (But true, so very true.)
41% my arse! I would very much like to know based on what terms this is derived from?!?!!
No kidding. Whose numbers are they using for this figure? Prices still have a long way to go there before they hit anything resembling the reality of local wages.
Lies, damned lies, and CAR statistics.
They’re comparing last year’s much lower percentage (with the old mortgage term assumptions) to their new improved ‘funky financing’ based affordability for this year.
It is based on something like 10% down, ARM rates, and 40% of gross for payments (PITI). Compare to the “old” HAI that the NAR still uses (but CAR went away from), which assumes 20% down, fixed 30-year rates and 28% of gross income towards payments (PI only).
HAI-FTB
http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzcxMTU=
HAI (warning: PDF)
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/Formulas_HAI.pdf/FILE/Formulas_HAI.pdf
I trust my other comment will show up, so I’ll add that the HAI-FTB assumes a house price of 85% of the median price, where the HAI assumes median price.
Fresno is a sactuary city just like LA or SF. Go see Bubba (In the Heat of the Night) at city hall for a hand out. Or better yet move back to TJ.
“‘Everyone else was making money,’ she says. ‘I figured this was the way to make money. I’ve changed my opinion on that,’ she says.”
Add one more to the list of those hit with the stupid stick.
When everyone else was making money and then you get in late, you will probably lose money.
‘When everyone else was making money and then you get in late’
So true. By the time the public hears of an opportunity - the gig is up! The sweet spot for profit taking is gone, but that does not bother Joe and Joan Sixpack … forward they go! After all, would Donald Trump lie to you?
you should know you are on the back end of the curve when waitresses and cab drivers (not to mention strawberry pickers) are buying multiple properties at prices that you used to think were really high.
I had to break the news to my wife last night that we weren’t going to buy another house until nobody I knew, including her, thought it was a good idea.
How was the couch last night?
I was smart enough to tell her this in response to a bearish comment of hers, the real argument is still in the future and will hopefully not end in divorce.
She doesn’t actually care about owning a house in particular, but she does need a timeline. “Saving up a down payment” and “Building up credit scores”, “paying down the cards”, these are all noble (and legitimate) reasons to start looking at buying one year later.
Given the reset graph, if prices aren’t dropping next summer to the point where she wonders at the immediate need to own a house… Well just suck it up and buy and swallow the cost of living. Just understand that no amount of argument nor sending of links can quelch the need to nest– that fight is unwinnable.
amen, brother. that’s why we bought last summer, even though I knew what was going to happen. No regrets, we can afford it and we are in it for the long-term. a happy marriage is worth some risk-taking.
Mercado was planning to sell his modest house in Riverside in the hope that he could make a killing and retire early in the Philippines. At the prevailing exchange rate, he told himself, he could easily sell his house for at least $1 million.”
So now who is Mr. Mercado going to kill to get his $1M, now that his Mc$hitbox isn’t worth that much?
Mercado is being greedy. I’m Filipino. If he drops his price 20% to $800,000, he could still live like a king in the Philippines. If you live in Manila, rent for a 1,500 sq. ft. apartment in a nice building in the business district would be about $700.00. And a haircut costs about $2.
The guy goes from selling his house for $1M, to now he’s stuck with it and can’t sell it. Sounds like he lives in black-and-white world.
I met some folks at McDonalds yesterday here in Albuquerque. They said that they were unaware that their was any housing slowdown and now only noticed after having 2 alligators to feed. They bought another house before selling the first one. Now, wife gone back to work (drumroll please - as a closer for mortgage documents) on a part-time basis. These people are normal bright intelligent and husband has a good job at the Sandia Labs. If people like this are uninformed, I really know why the uneducated, immigrant, etc were really screwed over. I just let the conversation drift to another topic.
“They bought another house before selling the first one. Now, wife gone back to work (drumroll please - as a closer for mortgage documents) on a part-time basis.”
“These people are normal bright intelligent”
I’m having trouble reconciling the former statement with the latter.
Sometimes people who are accustomed to DoD funding don’t realize that money does not grow on trees.
az_l, that would be primarily DOE funding for Sandia. DOE handles nuke weapons, which is on track to take a budget hit.
Holy Toledo! You just put your finger on why employment numbers are so good.
“The 54-story, $4.5 billion project - funded with nearly $300 million in city investments - will become a mainstay of a new downtown Los Angeles, officials promised.”
If I had a hundred bucks for every time someone said that a new convention center, stadium, etc. would be a mainstay for a city and promised unlimited opportunities and revitalization, I would be a rich man today!
There is a whole segment of the consulting industry whose job it is to make these developments look like winners when they are going to be financial losers. They use all sorts of funny financial math to do it, even going as far as pretending that part time jobs as parking lot attendants and hot dog salesmen at stadiums are going to really help the job market in the city.
But wait, there’s more, with our new preferred financing packages, those parking lot attendants will be buying million dollar lofts in the new, revitalized downtown!
“Across Riverside County, where sales declined 45 percent in April, the median price dropped about 1 percent to $409,000 from $413,000 a year ago, DataQuick reported. In San Bernardino County, the median price climbed 2.8 percent to $370,000, despite a 46.7 percent drop in sales volume from a year ago.”
Median price of 409k in Riverside! Sorry Mr. “I’m So Hosed” Husing, Riverside has just begun it’s plunge. Word on the street is that work is getting scarce in the IE. My bro-in-law is a contractor down there who ownes a Bobcat service. Just talked to him and he’s stressin’ hard. Work fell off a cliff early Spring. He’s big time connected to a lot of other self-employeds in the service industry, and news from them is just as grim. Every one is talking about the return of the mid-90’s, but unfortunately I think mid-90’s will be the best they could hope for.
Anyone else watching IE’s inventory? It’s blown way past last years highs and is showing no sign of slowing. This region could be in the top 5 as far as extreme meltdowns go.
The self employed’s often do very well in boom and bubble economies. Unfortunately few save for the rainy decade.
I wonder if they’ll be changing political parties now?
Sun Coast Post Tension has a little office there. One of the VP transplants from Houston TX just mailed the keys to Wells Fargo. Im thinking the slowdown may be hurting some folks down that way. My favorite quote when he bought the house 2.5 years ago, “Dude, we just had to make an offer above asking and cross our fingers. We are lucky to have this house.”
When a VP has to mail in the keys, the rank and file are really in bad shape.
well in all fairness, he gave the position up to move back to Houston. He said he couldnt sell it for what he had in it. May advice, walk away, rent truck,move family, rent condo, mail keys, save money.
The IE has always “blown my mind” - all the heat of Phoenix, all the absurd house prices, taxes and politics of California. Why would anyone want to live there, aside from the farmers?
But it is only one or two hours from the beach. Only thing I could think of.
What beach? Of the hundred plus miles of coastline between LA and San Diego, I’d say there’s less than 5 miles of it worth paying a visit.
He meant the beach at Salton Sea. Not crowded at all!
The Inland Empire: only an hour from everywhere else you’d rather be.(tm)
Dammmit, I had coffee in my mouth when reading this. Operative word being “had.”
Nah, the IE is fine. Just disregard the record foreclosures that continue to trend upwards. No big deal. It’s all good baby.
Foreclosure’s Filthy Aftermath
As foreclosures become more frequent, so do the bizarre and shocking stories of abandoned animals, insect infestations, and deplorable living conditions
…”Nothing to Lose
“They know they are going to lose their house, so they have no pride of ownership anymore,” Mitchell says. “They’ll leave the water on so there’s flooding and mold everywhere, they’ll tear the chandelier or the ceiling fan out of the ceiling, kick the doors and walls in. Then the critters start taking over—ants, scorpions, and Black Widow spiders.”
In and around Sacramento, Calif., mosquitoes that may carry the deadly West Nile virus are thriving in the thousands of uncared-for swimming pools on properties left vacant by slower home sales and rising foreclosures. With 30,505 foreclosure filings reported in April, California documented the largest foreclosure total in the country for the fourth month in a row, according to RealtyTrac. In Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba counties, more than 1,500 homeowners handed their homes over to the bank in the first three months of 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems in La Jolla, Calif. …
Business Week June 6, 2007
http://tinyurl.com/26eezs
The stories I could tell from the last downturn… People can be very very demented in situations like that.
Ahhh, but they were all living the American Dream just a few short months ago.
“shocking stories of abandoned animals”
How hard is it to take your dog or cat to the local humane society or shelter? No, better to lock them in an abandoned house and let them starve to death. A$%H%^&s!
If houses become abandoned in your neighborhood please take a few minutes, as early as possible, to listen for signs of life inside. And don’t be afraid to call the police or your animal cruelty investigator if you even suspect a left behind pet.
The more I know about people the more I hug my dogs!
Heck, even in the good times there’s a lot of perfectly good pets abandoned in the IE and high desert. I can’t tell you how many we’ve had through our rescue…
You’re expecting decent behavior from trash?
We had a similar experience a while ago when a new family moved in to an apartment building we were living in. Parent were trash; mom wasn’t sober most of the time she was home. Their young, dull kids and visiting relatives were trash and marked up our car (with a parent like that, their future looks pretty bleak)
They brought in a dog who got promptly got pregnant and then came the pups. When they finally got evicted a few months later, they left the dogs behind. Dog crap everywhere plus the state of the dogs. They did leave garbage for the dogs which promptly led to a huge cockroach infestation for the entire building.
I saw them when they were moving out. They were joking with their friends while helping them to move their stuff. Like this was perfectly normal. I would rather kill myself with a spoon than live such a pathetic existence without any honor.
This is why no way in hell would I buy a foreclosed house at an auction unless the price assumed the structure was worthless and represented the value of the land alone.
Spoke to an OC loan agent this morning who goes out to Riverside a lot; he told me that builders in Hemet are offerring new construction at $110/sq.’. Thats going to really kill the resale market.
Ohhhh no way! Are you kidding me?! Ouch… that’s going to hurt a lot of people.
Hemet = old age home…
A bumper sticker from the town:
“Pray for me, I drive in Hemet”
“builders in Hemet are offerring new construction at $110/sq”
Hemet is an epicenter the IE bust. Very dry, barren rolling rockscapes till you get into Hemet city limits: then it’s mostly a hugh concentration of trailers/mobile parks/recently built homes. Very hot but a sticky hazy dull heat. That main drag running thru hemet, florida ave(hwy 74/79)is an endless dreary monotony of urban sprawl.
Problem with Hemet:no jobs. It was after all primarily a retirement community till the developers went bonkers with all the new McStuccos.
I figure his cost is $85-95 per ft. eh?
Builder in Sac told me $82. per foot….
That’s awesome. Very smart for a small builder to do that right now. Undercut the false market with some reality based pricing that will eventually leak out and bring the others back in line.
Any builder who does that now is a hero in my book.
I’m coming to this late, butttt…..
“Anyone else watching IE’s inventory? It’s blown way past last years highs and is showing no sign of slowing.”
I’m watching Apple Valley (on the way to Vegas), and last year’s highs were around 1500 (sept/oct). They are now at 1800 and climbing. They are currently at 50% higher inventory year-over-year.
My wife has been keeping her eyes on the used home listings in San Bernardino County (Inland Empire) over the past 9 months and last fall she didn’t see anything under $300K but now they are slowly but surely listing homes below $300K.
As for problems, the smog is almost always around. A person died nearby (a year or two ago, I believe) where we live due to West Nile virus. And San Bernardino City is still one of the most dangerous city in IE: http://www.pe.com/localnews/publicsafety/stories/PE_News_Local_C_crimestats05.41b1722.html
Yes, it’s “different here” alright….
Great post and thanks. With all the volatility and swaying back and forth trying to digest all the “information” and “disinformation” one really needs to try to slow down and get a grip and stay with the trend. In the final analysis it is all about figuring out the trend (down) and staying with it. I’ve never seen or experienced such emotional volatility and it really is difficult trying to maintain a sense of peace and/or sanity. This is till probably the first or second inning in all of this and i can’t bear to think how one’s emotions will fray going forward.
“”Janice Burnham, who lives in San Francisco, bought a Silicon Valley home in 2002 and an investment property in Folsom, Calif., near Sacramento two years ago. She paid $353,000 for the investment property.”
“‘Everyone else was making money,’ she says. ‘I figured this was the way to make money. I’ve changed my opinion on that,’ she says.”
“Now she figures she would have trouble selling the Folsom home for $320,000, a loss she’s trying to avoid by renting the property. But that’s not going well, either, because she spends money for upkeep and struggles to find tenants. ‘It’s a lot of work for no gain,’ she says.””
We won’t hit bottom until the Janices of the world are purged from the mls. Sure, she may not be selling now, but will be soon. The lower priced new listings are sealing these peoples fate. There never was much real demand at the hyper-inflated prices. Most purchases were made with the assumption that the homes would continue to post absurd gains. The homes for sale which were purchased pre-bubble will set the comps, along with foreclosures.
Anecdotal: A friend of a family member sold a Phoenix property for an absurd price a little over a year ago, and moved to Colorado Springs, purchasing another home for an equally absurd price. A job loss followed this past month, and he is looking to return to Phoenix since Colorado Springs no longer holds promise. Selling the house is next to impossible. And, the people he sold to in Phoenix are angry because they are now trying to sell to leave the area and are upside down well over $100k already. These homes were purchased in the $600k-$800k range. They are $375k homes IMO.
Also, just had a conversation with an older family member in Seattle who just bought a $425k crapper within the past 6 months. Said family member declared that prices will continue to increase (and NEVER drop) because “that’s just the way it is now”. When I asked why, there was no answer. Stupidity abounds.
Why oh why do people move to another city and insist on buying something on day one? This mentality of “I’m no longer in college, so there’s no way I’m renting” is really tiresome. And expensive.
Can’t they give it a year, rent, see if they like the area, and make sure their job is secure first?
I’ll never forget a conversation my wife and I had with a friend and his wife last summer. The conversation turned to housing and we let it be known that we were currently renting. The wife of the friend got this puzzled look, and then said “You guys don’t look like renters.” So, apparently renters have a “look”. I didn’t respond…..I have a hard time responding to stupidity.
Yep, in the US renters are considered second class citizens or people that just can’t make the American dream happen. All the marketing done by the NAR and the HBs has everyone brainwashed to think this is so.
People are so retarded.
My friends are smart. They congratulate me on renting, particularly since the owner paid $728,000 for our home in April 2006. The builder just listed the last few homes of this model on MLS at $510,000. Three more of this model are in NOD. 20 homes are vacant, belonging to flippers and have the utilities disconnected, so the buidler sends out a construction water truck every other day to water the quickly browning lawns. He is trying to keep up the neighborhood and dump his last 13 homes, before the banks take possession of the 4 that went NOT last week. Thank you Ben, for helping me be gain that renter’s look. It is a laugh a minute, being a renter in this market. It is truly getting uglier by the minute.
Well, sometimes it’s hard to suppress the smirk, but I’m workin’ on it.
Well, it’s the same logic that says if you are driving a luxury car and always have new clothes, you must be in the money.
There’s a 40-ish couple and kid renting in my old neighborhood. Everyone assumed they must have had past money/credit problems since they rented. My response was that perhaps they are saving good money by renting. I got the blank stares back at me. Some pretty twisted logic out there. And lots of gossip.
Ah yes, the “blank stare”. I got this when I sold my house in late ‘04 to rent from anyone who found out we were selling. They would all ask, “where did you buy?” and give the blank stare when told we’d rent for awhile.
Just came from a cocktail party. The realtor who found me a customer in three days, exactly a year ago, was at the party. I said a lot of good things about him. I didn’t mention the fact that his efforts to find a customer for the house where I am now a tenant are absolutely fruitless. (And I hope they’ll stay that way.)
no kidding, everyone thought we were crazy to not “buy right away” the smart ones don’t think so anymore, but there are still a few “YOU RENT”!!!, at first it bothered me a tiny bit, now I use it as a Litmus test, if you can’t see the wisdom of renting vs buying in SOUTH FLORIDA!!! I have no time for you.
Being a renter is seen as being a hobo - you are not putting down roots, you are not paying your fair share of taxes, and so on. All false, but commonly held beliefs.
Three of my friends that live in downtown San Diego condos have told me that I’m lucky not to have bought into the market. They’re all paying through the nose for mortgage and hoa.
When I told one of them that I haven’t bought on purpose I could see it in his eyes that he just thought I didn’t make enough money. Then I said that everything I own is paid off, I have no debt, and a bunch of money in the bank. Again I could see exactly what he was thinking.
He knew he was screwed and he also knew that it was my intention to buy someone like him out for cheap.
Sometimes a job relocation package will provide a strong incentive to buy soon. In my case, employer was willing to pay all closing costs, and pay a point- but only within a limited timeframe. Not a huge sum of money, but still a factor. Also, working with their lender, I was able to secure a very favorable rate (bank made their money on the front end with direct charges to the relocation company).
Employer paid to move my stuff once. If I rented for 6 months and then decided to move; that 2nd move would be on my dime. I’ve got a lot (too much) stuff- that 2nd move would either be very expensive, or labor intensive for me.
It was tough enough to ask the kids to change schools once.
So, even though I expect an equity haircut; I purchased, back in April, after only a couple of months (temporary housing) in the new location.
Don’t you mean it was hard enough *telling* the kids they would be changing schools? Just wondering.
LOL @ math guy, haven’t you heard people are not allowed to “tell” their kids anything anymore. They must ask in smooth and gentle tones as to not upset their kids kharma now or in the future. Don’t you read the paper or watch T.V. sheesh where have you been?… (smirk)
You have to love this blog. I just got out of a conversation with a manager who is having a really hard time telling this new generation of workers of a sub-par performance. These new workers have never been told anything other than “good job” from their parents/teachers/coaches, etc. Everybody gets a prize! Don’t they know that when everybody is special, then nobody is? Read Harrison Bergeron, ya nimrods!
Watching my brother and his wife disciplining/trying to discipline their older daughter as she beats on her baby sister because she is no longer the focus of ALL of their attention is really tough. They just throw up their hands and look at me with a “what can you do” look on their faces. I don’t want to go back to the “seen and not heard” days, but this thinking that every poop that your child takes must be bronzed is really wearing thin. Asking your kids? Give ‘em two options, both of which you want them to do, and then let ‘em think that they have a choice. They are gaming you all the time! They’re smart. Looking for consistency abberations, playing mom v. dad, stimulus-response, etc. Take back your life. It’s not ALL about the kids.
And please don’t give me the, “Well, you don’t know jack b.c you don’t have kids” line. So tired. But luckily, I can play the crazy, single, renter, tin-foil hat wearing uncle with the krazy theories of why the sister-in-law might not NEED accupressure and spa treatments as they sink further underH2O in their tract Sonoma house and then get out of Dodge.
MrBubble
Anyone willing to hazard an over/under on the number of months before Noe Valley (SF) and Palo Alto start to slide in an obvious way? I can’t make my boss understand that this asset bubble is also a credit bubble anf that median prices are skewed and that this bubble will hurt everyone. Please help?
Money follows money…..Its a herding instinct…..Its also the desire to seek safety, and a community that is highly educated……
Median household income 94K
Bachelor’s degree 75%
Graduate degree 46%
Crime data index…..U.S. average = 325 Palo Alto 208 (last 5 years under 200)….
Not justifying the prices in Palo Alto, just giving the reasons IMO that the money flows there….
Ah yes - renter’s “class” syndrome. My family really doesn’t understand why/how I could rent but are reasonably tolerant of it. (I’ve encouraged my sister to rent instead of buy another house while prices are so high, but no dice there.)
My father-in-law, on the other hand, called about a week after we told them of our decision to sell and rent. (He hasn’t spoken to my husband in months before that; not anger just not talkivative.) He spent 45 minutes on the phone that Sunday morning with my husband throwing out every reason from the NAR playbook about why we should buy.
In retrospect, I think he was really upset a whole loss of status thing. He knew we had “made it” because we owned a house. Obviously there’s nothing to say - selling and renting promises both an immediate boost to our net worth and liquidity and a long term savings. I’m thinking that the best position we can be in is have them think we’re broke because they are having money trouble themselves and I’d rather not be hit up for a loan.
Ironically, my realtor agrees with what we are doing and doesn’t really understand why everyone is so down on renting. Since the laws repealing land ownership as a voting requirement were repealed,oh, about 170 years or so ago, I think we’ll be quite happy renting and “broke”.
Guess I’m really lucky…my parents talked my wife and I out of buying a house in San Pedro about six months ago. If they hadn’t turned us on to this website, we’d be in deep trouble. Thanks Ben and everyone else!
The CAR/NAR bull continues…
That’s according to the California Association of Realtors’ First-time Buyer Affordability Index. For the first quarter of 2007, the affordability index for the Central Valley stood at 41%.”
This ‘affordibility index’ is generated based on CAR’s improved (bullshit!) gauge of current ‘products’, such as I/O, and Option ARM loans used during the bubble. Using the old model, that index number would not break 10%. Put on your waders!
“For the first quarter of 2007, the affordability index for the Central Valley stood at 41%. That’s up from 38% in the same quarter in 2006, and is the highest the index has been since the first quarter of 2005.”
Does that affordability index take into account the potentially-devastating impact on moderate-income buyers of catching a falling knife? Or an exploding ARM?
That is a completely bullshit statement! Housing prices in the Central Valley average +/- $350,000, requiring a 100k/year income in a region with 45K median household incomes. Who the hell is this clown??!!
What blatant manipulation of data points were required to hit this figure? Neg-Am, I/O’s as the only loan products? Selected pockets of high income households? I month teaser rates? I really am starting to hate these guys.
They did change the affordability components recently. It use to require 20% down, fixed 30 year mortgage. Now 10% and I think they use a 3/27 ARM. Who knows the exact changes? It was done about 6 months ago.
I doubt it, but that “affordability index” was adjusted to more lax standards just last year so that they could pretend that homes were affordable. They adjusted the index with the excuse the ARM and other crazy loans changed things, though we all know now that it changed nothing except for allowing more people to get loans they should never have gotten.
‘I doubt it, but that “affordability index” was adjusted to more lax standards just last year so that they could pretend that homes were affordable.’
“For the first quarter of 2007, the affordability index for the Central Valley stood at 41%.”
“That’s up from 38% in the same quarter in 2006, and is the highest the index has been since the first quarter of 2005.”
I am guessing they are comparing the new affordability measure to the old one, making the comparison completely meaningless.
They are using the same bs calculations in SLO county for affordability in ‘official’ pronouncements.
I personally know of quite a few friends, and colleagues in the bay area who have purchased multiple “investment” properties….most of them are rented out, bought with ARMs, and I’m sure they probably listed them as owner occupied when they applied for the loan. This is –VERY– common in the bay area. It’s an absolute scam.
Sounds like an absolute scam that is morphing into a hard landing.
Some of the biggest inventory increases last month came in the metro areas of Seattle, up 12% from April; San Francisco, 11%; Los Angeles, 10%; and Washington, D.C., 9%.
Inventories also are up sharply from a year earlier. For the 15 cities for which year-earlier comparisons were available, combined inventory was up 29% from May 2006.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118109681582926024.html?mod=homes_left_column_hs
I’m in SF area, the number of For Sale signs in Sunnyvale is becoming obnoxious.
Yes, this is common. A friend has 5 houses in Sacramento, another one has 3 houses in Sac, and a ex neighbor has 2 houses in the Central Valley. Most were bought no money down.
Norcal, how are your friends doing with their investments? Did they make a killing or are they underwater?
ockurt, good to see you on this blog again. The friend with 5 houses is probably breakeven at best as he bought some houses in 2003, and some in 2004. One house he bought in fall of 2005 and this is underwater as the builder started cutting prices $ 75K on a $550K house.
Not sure about the other two, would think breakeven at best. But they will have negative cash flow once the loans reset so they should sell now if they can.
And all those rental “Houses” are propped up by what ?? Jobs…..If we get another recession like 91-93 they will get there butt handed to them….
“Many
buyers and sellerseconomists are simply confused at this point, said economist John Husing, who studies the Inland Empire’s economy.”“‘They’re saying, ‘I’m going to wait and see what’s going on,’ Husing said. ‘I think we’re involved in about an 18-month pause with an overall median price decline of 5 percent.’”
LOL.
I don’t know if this has been posted before — iTulip’s take on the housing mess - pretty funny
http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1404
Oh I forgot to mention, these people I’m talking about all live/work in the bay area, but their properties are in phoenix, sacramento, and florida.
CA speculators are single handily responsible for much of the problems not only within it’s state, but several other states as well.
I call troll on thee. You can’t just toss out a statement like that. I want to see numbers. California-bashing is strictly prohibited on this blog!
Call him thou not a troll. He speak well and truly. Californians are highly regarded for their ability to lead the nation in all things, be they good or evil.
Well, seeing as how I live in CA myself, and these observations are about people from CA…I can toss out a statement like that with pleasure.
“I can toss out a statement like that with pleasure.”
And be accurate as hell all in the same breath…
San Francisco, California
Including Brisbane, Broadmoor Village, Colma, Daly City, Millbrae, San Bruno, South San Francisco
Trend 06/01/2007 1 month 3 month 6 month 12 month
Median Price $725,000 -0.7% 0.0% -0.7% -1.8%
Inventory 2,501 +7.7% +34.8% +10.4% +20.0%
Sacramento
Median Price $349,000 -0.3% -2.8% -4.4% -11.6%
Inventory 11,656 +4.6% +29.0% +19.6% +15.6%
People on this blog talk about feeding gators.
The next stage of this bust will look something like this……….
http://www.smileygarden.de/smilie/Strand/smilie_water_053.gif
These people must have giant asses to keep pulling these predictions based on nothing other than their gut feelings out of them, sounds like they all went to the Gut Feeling University where our fearful President is alma mater.
Btw, the stock market between this month and the next two should go up 20,000 points then have a 10,000 point correction, I got this gut feeling about it so it must be so.
I’m a bit confused with this USA article. I read the whole article and the following doesn’t make any sense:
1. Solarz bought a property in Oakland for $225,000 in 1997.
2. By her estimate the property appreciated to roughly $600,000.
3. She’s plowed about $56,000 into the property for various repairs.
4. She’s prepared to sell the property and move into stocks as soon as housing prices firm up.
===========================================================
If the house is WORTH 600,000 dollars what is she hoping will firm up?
How much did she borrow against the house?
That’s the missing piece. It is very possible that the home has $500k+ worth of debt on it…
You’re right, it doesn’t make sense, but Solarz has already booked (in her mind) that $600K as her minimum price. She knows that she can’t actually get that much now (maybe she could have last year, but not now), but in her mind that is what she is holding out for, so she is going to hold on until prices come back to her $600K. She is in for a long wait.
Will this housing mania ever end?
“Britain faces 20-year house boom that will split nation, says report”
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2096934,00.html
“Another factor that could work against increasing affordability is the tightening of credit standards that has followed the collapse of the subprime mortgage industry.”
——————————————
Lenders are actually being selective now, and this has caused affordability to rise? More likely it has caused sales to plummet.
Casey’s back. Said he was “forced”.
Thanks for reminding me. My AdBlock filter was still letting a couple of banners on his site load, but that has now been fixed.
This is one sick little SOB but I knew he would bring it back.
A childhood friend of mine got a divorce, and then remarried. Wanted to get away from the ex. So, she and new hubby HAD to sell an almost paid for house (bought in 1994) in San Diego and move to Hawaii. Of course, profits from SD house used to buy a house in HI. They don’t find jobs, lose home (and all previous profits), go BK, and now moved back to SD and have to live with her parents. They were highly educated and professional type folks. This “I have to buy” mentality killed her and new hubby. Her parents recommended to ‘rent’ in HI to make sure it works. Would she listen? No. She wouldn’t have listened to me either. Still, so much further to go.
a childhood friend of mine lives in marin and owns five homes. she called me an “effing idiot” for not buying and i was truly offended.
i heard last night the friend had bone cancer. no joke there.
I had bone cancer. It’s definitely no joke.
Very sorry to hear that.
Hope you’re doing well now. IMHO, the #1 priority of this country should be “finding the cure” for cancer. Gotta get the “for-profit” model out of it before we get there, though.
“New-home sales dropped 57 percent across the Coachella Valley compared with a year ago . . .”
I would think a “drop” of that magnitude should elicit the use of a stronger verb, perhaps in conjunction with a colorful adverb. Something like “perilous decline” or “frighteningly precipitous fall.”
Yeah, remember when they reported last month’s new home sales “SOAR” ? Even though they were down from the year ago numbers…
Just to let you know how ugly it has gotten in Fresno. A broker friend of mine shared this with me. A home sold in a neighborhood that still had builders models for sale. Someone representing the builder contacted the buyer during escrow and offered to sell them the builders home (same model) for $50,000 less then their offer. The buyer cancelled their original purchase losing their deposit and subsequently purchased the builders model. They saved money and got a home that had never been lived in. What will they think of next?
When the going gets tough, the strong get tough.
Norcal: When the lending gets tough, the tough get lending!
The funniest thing about that is that this FB will probably be upside down by 20% this time next year.
Ah - nothing like a little due diligence. WTF was the buyer thinking - so they didn’t even bother checking the prices of new homes in the same neighborhood before going to contract on a used home?
FB indeed.
‘I think we’re involved in about an 18-month pause with an overall median price decline of 5 percent.’
I actually expect a “median” price increase, as the only buyers left as credit drys up may be the wealthiest of buyers.
That said, in San Diego I beleive we are already looking at a median price reduction from 2005 of over 10% and it has ALREADY been 22 months since the peak which is commonly recognized as having occured around August. I see absolutely NOTHING on the horizon that stands a chance of getting the market moving again in the next few years, except for substantial and meaningful price reductions which once again bring affordability to the mainstream population of buyers.
“Mercado was planning to sell his modest house in Riverside in the hope that he could make a killing and retire early in the Philippines. At the prevailing exchange rate, he told himself, he could easily sell his house for at least $1 million.”
This quote sums up the mentality of the last 5 years nicely. You just buy a house..any house…any where…..and kaching!! The magical mystery machine ATM goes off and let’s you retire!!
He needs to react quickly. With the falling dollar, he could loose more with the exchange rate to Peso than just lowering the sale price of the house.
Think they’re covering the mortgage on this rental?!
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/apa/346362801.html
—-
Anyone in Phoenix area care to comment on their views of Chandler or Ahwatukee home prices. They seem to have come down just a little, but still crazy compared to 3-4 years ago. I’m not living in Phx now, but may move back at some point.
Thanks,
Bill
I’m not in PHX, but have been watching home prices in N. Scottsdale. Not much change at all. Still overpriced for living in the desert where a/c is required. I’ve been on azcentral.com to look. Also, hard copies of the Arizona Republic. Tucson is way overpriced too - especially over by Canyon Ranch.
~Misstrial
BillF,
I live in Phoenix, but a block from the Ahwatukee limits. Prices are still way frigging high compared to where they should be. My rent is $967 per month on 1000 square feet. Nearby houses are a minimum of $500,000 and dotted with a few above $1,000,000. It’s much better to rent here.
Thanks for your observations…
Bill
I live here in Fresno and the housing market is a real disaster with sales falling almost 45% in the last year. The wages are low across the board and only 18% can afford the medium home price of $275K. The area is way over built now and they continue to throw up these houses. The builders just never stop with the specs., but the correction will be nasty to say the least.
I live in Fresno and am waiting on the sidelines for the prices to keep dropping. I rent a nice condo in North Fresno and watch the listings every week. Prices continue to drop. I’m excited!! (but still waiting) . . . they haven’t fallen enough (yet).
Incredible. Cassey’s back up:
http://www.iamfacingforeclosure.com
As of 3:28 PST
~Misstrial
I lived in California for 16 years. I have every right to toss out every insult known to the place. Even that wouldn’t truly express my disgust with what the place turned into during my time there. It was nice at first, but, slowly, downhill.
Paris in jail. Nobody making fun of her, and the MSM following her and not spending time reporting the facts of the bubble?
“‘If you were a live body a year ago, even two years ago, if you placed a mirror under your nose and it fogged up, you could get a home loan and get into a house,’ Heffner said of the lax standards some lenders pursued.”
Did anybody happen to catch that this guy works/worked for a company called “integrity lending group?” …where was his integrity when he was putting mirrors in front of the comatose?
“Mercado was planning to sell his modest house in Riverside in the hope that he could make a killing and retire early in the Philippines. At the prevailing exchange rate, he told himself, he could easily sell his house for at least $1 million.”
I think at this point he would be slightly more likely to be able to sell his @sshole for $1 million.
My neighbor in NoVA is selling their townhouse. The maximum the realtors would let them list it for is 377k. They bought it for 360k two years ago.
I asked them what they’ve done to the house to make it worth 17k more, other than live in it.
Blank stares.
That’s according to the California Association of Realtors’ First-time Buyer Affordability Index. For the first quarter of 2007, the affordability index for the Central Valley stood at 41%.”
Anyone believe this BS?
How do they calculate this affordability index?
Did they go to a 100 year loan?
IO?
It is disgusting how unethical this bunch of dirtbags are.
The index changed a year or two ago. It had gone down below 10% in OC, lower than the 1989 bubble, so they adjusted it to reflect the funny money financing of today. No worries about loan resets or down payments now!
How long does the “affordability” last when the assumed finance product has payments that increase, potentially drastically, over time?
The idea that they would use anything other than a fixed rate fixed payment loan for an “affordability” index smacks of deliberate dishonesty. Not that we should be surprised, but it’s so blatant, and the fact that the MSM do not call them out on it plainly shows them to be active participants in this game…
“Many buyers and sellers are simply confused at this point, said economist John Husing, who studies the Inland Empire’s economy.”
Hey Husing you retard. I am not confused. when prices get back down to relaity I will buy. does that sound confused?
Where do they drum up these so called expert fools?
“‘They’re saying, ‘I’m going to wait and see what’s going on,’ Husing said. ‘I think we’re involved in about an 18-month pause with an overall median price decline of 5 percent.’”
5%????
Don’t hold your breath dope.
how about 40-50% off of these retarded prices?
Got 20% down?
“Some investors want to get out but fear they’re so far in the hole already that they don’t want to take the loss. Janice Burnham, who lives in San Francisco, bought a Silicon Valley home in 2002 and an investment property in Folsom, Calif., near Sacramento two years ago. She paid $353,000 for the investment property.”
“‘Everyone else was making money,’ she says. ‘I figured this was the way to make money. I’ve changed my opinion on that,’ she says.”
“Now she figures she would have trouble selling the Folsom home for $320,000, a loss she’s trying to avoid by renting the property. But that’s not going well, either, because she spends money for upkeep and struggles to find tenants. ‘It’s a lot of work for no gain,’ she says.”
At least she is honest and not pointing fingers. I wish her well, but she should unload it now fast.