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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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The biggest topic of the week has to be the massive jump of the yield on the 10-year. The “Goldilocks Rally” can be traced directly to the drop of the 10-year from a yield of 5.2% down to 4.4%. This caused stocks, across the board, to rise. The numbers of many stocks were helped with foreign currency gains.
The last hope of the housing market was the dream that the Fed still had control of the situation and could lower interest rates. This would set everything right in the minds of fanatics such as David Lereah, Leslie Appleton-Young and Lawrence Yun. A 30-year fixed may soon be at 7%, still historically low but murder for this housing market. Their illusions seem to have disappeared in the haze of the desert.
What other implications does the rising of the 10-year hold for the American economy and Americans in general?
International markets got hammered last night - European and Asian (the ones that are meaningful anyhow). DAX and FTSE are down for the 4th straight day, and not with small drops.
we here in germany have lost almost 6 percent since monday.
funny that just on monday one of our major newsmags was out with a story “how to profit from the stock market”….
just the day the dax broke 8000…and has nosedived since then….
Speaking of funny, it seems like the worse the markets get the more Larry Kudlow talks about eminent terror threats to avoid the elephant in the room.
Good topic NYCityBoy………
This just appeared on the net.
U.S. futures lower as bond yields approach 5.25%
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stock-futures-drop-bond/story.aspx?guid=%7B6A25BA37%2D707A%2D47A8%2DBD2E%2D8DBF0A25E2B6%7D
Nice gap down looking again today. It’s Friday so I’ll bet we either get one of those horror shows where the bottom falls out all day and we spend the weekend wondering if we’re going to have a Black Monday or we gap down and reverse around mid-morning (most likely scenario to me since I can’t believe the bulls will give up this easily)
FWIW, the futures were quite a bit lower some hours ago & have now moved back up.
I’m taking more money off the table (bearish bets…took some off Thurs. already) & have some long orders in already.
Lesson learned. The “down” markets never seem to last very long. Been beat up over the past year, as I’ve been expecting for “THE downturn” all along.
Check out the story of “Goldilocks and the 10-year”. If the ten year holds, that skank is dead. An economy swimming in debt can’t blossom while interest rates are rising.
I got stopped out yesterday trying to buy the support at 1500. Was glad to throw a few hundred bucks to the bear cause since I have the Sept. puts. I think this stock market could flip over as suddenly as the housing market did but then, I’ve never seen a bull market I believed in
Yep, when it’s down Thurday and Friday “Black Monday” is what I think of.
Good thing for Bush he appointed Bernanke and Paulson instead of his usual hacks. As it takes is for someone to say what those waiting for a trigger to run for the hills consider “the wrong thing” and whammo. As I recall, some minor official said something over the weekend before Black Monday, which some people blamed for the crash.
I wouldn’t want to be a macro-economic policy maker with a speech scheduled this weekend.
What about the flat lining of the TNX yesterday for about an hour or so at its low for the day after which it recovered a bit? Was this PPT intervention? Tin foil anybody?
I think the Plunge Protection boys are out of dough and answers….this run up all Spring was classic “pump and dump”.
Would want to have money in treasury bonds of most sorts, cash, some gold and silver and oil.
Then pray for some deflation…some of these assets may go a bit down but not as much as stocks, housing, land, and will-of-the-wisp junk bonds/derivatives or any other Rube Goldberg check kiting finance paper.
I am in full bear mode now.
Check out the volatility this a.m. so far in the long bond.
Long 30 year bond is getting “frothy” txchick57. Yes, I see what is going on. Wall Street Report on PBS last night was hinting a bit at that….yield curve it is called….very steep.
Stocks will probably go up briefly for a few minutes and then later today as bonds continue to increase, a slow decline.
Raising interest rates will kill whatever is left of sub-prime and Alt-A craptacular real estate lending. Rates go to 7% and bye-bye any real estate recovery at these bubble prices.
Prices must and will fall.
TNX had a nice gap up on the opening only to get pushed down pretty hard. See how this develops today…
“Would want to have money in treasury bonds of most sorts,…”
Where is the advantage to holding l-t treasuries when yields have breached resistance levels and nobody knows where the next resistance level will be found?
Absolutely right! And if Treasury bonds in the US go to 6.5% but the dollar drops 30% against the Yen, buyers of T Bonds are caught holding the bag.
from Bill Gross (last year he felt that 10 year bonds would stay between 4 -5%, this years analysis)
“…As a result, we’ve raised our forecast range for global interest rates, moving the range for 10-year U.S. Treasuries to 4.0-6.5% versus last year’s forecast range of 4.0-5.5%, for instance, which is sort of indicative of how we see the bond markets in general.
In addition, in terms of major conclusions, we think that asset managers and bond managers, to the extent that they can, should try to take advantage of global growth via minor positions in emerging market currencies. We expect the U.S. dollar to be weak going forward, for a number of reasons. And we think that commodity prices in general, based upon this strong global growth environment and the demand from the BRICs1 and the emerging market countries, will produce favorable results for commodities.
Those are our basic conclusions—not necessarily bond friendly but asset friendly in some ways, with the favored assets being emerging market currencies and commodities in terms of some of the more applicable asset categories. We also think that global stocks, especially those outside the United States, will benefit over this period of time….”
http://tinyurl.com/yqkk78
I’ll fade Mr. Buffett (short term), but not Mr. Gross.
Where is the advantage to holding l-t treasuries when yields have breached resistance levels and nobody knows where the next resistance level will be found?
How do you know where the top in long term yields will end up at? I guess I’m the humble one and don’t know. So I buy them anywhere above 5%. I simply step up the pace of buying long term bonds when the rate goes up anothe percentage point. I guess I’m disadvantaged in that I do not have prescience like the rest of you investors out there. But my way of investing more when the prices are cheaper always has worked well for me.
“I think the Plunge Protection boys are out of dough and answers…”
So long as the printing press still works, they are not out of dough…
interesting to see that the yen has barely corrected vs the $ and the euro.
so the unwinding of the carry trade has still to come.
Can you expand on the meaning of this?
the yen seems to be way undervalued in the past 2 years of movement… Euro/NZD/AUD/CAD have all moved against the USD - but YEN has actually weakened.
By “unwinding still to come”, do you mean you expect the Yen to get weaker (125:1) or stronger (110:1)?
to gain vs the other currencies
on the one hand it is now more profitable to play the carry trade but on the other hand the volatility and rising risk aversion could force players to unwind their carry trade.
One of the unwritten stories of the housing boom-bust is the hit that the U.S. Treasury and state governments will take in lost revenues. All those 100% mortgages, all those ARM resets higher, all those neg amortization loans mean bigger and bigger interest payments. And guess what? 95% of them are 100% federal deductible. So, if you were stupid enough to hock yourself for $6,000 of mortgage interest payments a month, and you are in the 33% combined federal/state tax bracket, you aren’t actually out-of-pocket $6,000. The fed and state governments are kind enough to bail out $2,000 of your debt evey month. With home prices in a long-term downward spiral, there’s no chance Congress will tinker with deductible home interest, either. They’re stuck with it. You will see huge and growing government deficits all over this country as the story unwinds.
Actually I think the reverse is true. An increase in deductions caused by the upside of the boom (higher mortgage interest) means less revenue for the governement. But on the backside of the boom (where we are starting now), when mortgage payments are decreasing due to decreasing housing prices, government revenue will be increasing.
In the simplest case (mine), I pay income tax on all interest received, but not all of that interest turns into deductions for the homeowners. Some of them take the standard deduction, and for others, the mortgage interest is only slightly more than their standard deduction. I would say Uncle Sam gained more tax from these transactions, but not by much. As the bust unfolds, a likely scenario is, these mortgages will gradually be paid down but, my income may not change a whole lot, as the fraction of my assets exiting the mortgage mkt will probably continue to flow to the (foreign government) bond market, where it will produce taxable income.
In an overall sense, I would think the likely loss of jobs would reduce Federal income tax receipts more than any mortgage related changes.
“You will see huge and growing government deficits all over this country as the story unwinds.”
Why do you think the U.S. govt will let the story unwind, then? Don’t you think the financial and social engineers will retrench and construct new levees as soon as the current floodwaters subside? Don’t put any level of effort to maintain disequilibrium conditions past a hubris-prone government who will undertake to divert the Mississippi River’s flow if it sees fit to do so.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/stories/DN-louisiana_01tex.ART.State.Edition1.43b5e5d.html
I would like to see someone get onto the mass media for their use of real estate industry spin terms, such as “housing boom,” instead of factual ones, such as “housing bubble,” “housing mania,” “something-for-nothing-stampede,” and “mass hysteria.” “Housing boom” implies something wonderful happened and benefited everyone who owned a house, with no suggestion of something radically amiss. Since most of the bubble was fueled by across-the-board criminal fraud, and could never have happened in a sane or ethical climate, the terms invented by those involved in the scam are hardly the ones the media should be adopting. “Boom” and “correction” are intentionally deceptive. “Bubble” and “crash” are factual.
Many large city newspapers issue PC directives several times a year telling writers and reporters what words are in or out, acceptable or prohibited; these lists ALWAYS reflect the political biases and financial biases and agendas of the publishers or editors, and have nothing to do with honesty or accuracy. They are a cynical attempt to manipulate the public and public thinking by the manipulation of language.
This has also, clearly, been a factor in real estate reporting the past six or seven years. Despite its 100% bogus forecast record, the NAR is still being consulted by reporters for juicy quotes and exciting predictions, and its ludicrous, painstakingly contrived vocabulary is still being treated as god’s word.
There is certainly a tendency to describe rising asset prices as a good thing, whether stocks or houses. They are in fact good for sellers, who tend to be older, but bad for buyers, who tend to be younger.
If rising asset prices are not supported by improved fundamental, they are nothing more than yet another generational transfer. The “housing boom” was in fact an affordable housing disaster.
On that subject (good vs evil), I had a brief exchange with Stephen Frater of the St Petersburg (FL) newspaper. His articles had been attacked by HBB types - but really by persons more extreme and shrill than those here. Frater’s piece that I read was in fact somewhat balanced, but persistently described falling prices as “bad news” and the stability of St Pete relative to neighboring markets as “good news”.
I wrote to Frater acknowledging some balance in his reporting, but criticizing the “good/bad” usage. I said it would be better for all if home prices were in line with incomes and rents. He wrote back saying that higher sales volume and stable prices would be the best thing. Well, yeah, but stable at what level?!?! - was my thought, but I didn’t bother writing again.
Higher volume is better for agents and brokers and some other businesses, but it isn’t the best deal for everyone else. Selling your house (in a stable price market) means you have to move. It could be a move to a “better” job opportunity but that implies that you couldn’t find a better opportunity in your area.
Until people can sell their houses with little loss of value (to broker, lender or transfer taxes) it is better for a typical home owner to stay put. I acknowledge it is bad for people to be so scared of the market that no one is buying, but that doesn’t mean a high level of sales is a really good thing at any price level.
It was a boom, in the sense that there was a residential construction boom and thousands of units were built. There was the resulting boom in unoccupied units as well…
All depends on what you’re looking at. These were boom years if you worked in construction.
Finally, a dose of reality for HB stocks. In only two days (Wed & Thurs) the HB stocks (as tracked by the HGX index) fell 5%! The straw that broke the camel’s back appears to be the rising interest rates, which will inflict pain on the entire RE industry via higher mortgage rates.
We’ve all discussed how median sales prices mis-represent the market because the composition of homes sold changes, with higher priced homes comprising a higher share of the total as home values fall.
So what is the actual change in housing prices where you live, based on actual sales of very similar homes?
I live on a block of identical rowhouses in Brooklyn NY, a 45 minute subway ride from Midtown (35 to Downtown). Those in good condition have been selling at identical prices for two years, albeit at very inflated prices relative to income and past values.
Thus far in BK, therefore, we have a “permanently high plataeau” but with prices falling relative to inflation. Which is what we had from 1987 to 1989, before the downturn got rolling in earnest and we had nominal losses as well.
In North County San Diego (coastal), our particular area (upper-middle) has been basically flat for almost three years.
Our former neighborhood (where we sold in 2004) continued up another 10-15% until 2005, and now those prices are below 2004 levels, approximately 20%+ down. Still, nowhere near where they need to be (another 30-45% down, depending on the economy).
Oh, former neighborhood was a “starter” n’hood.
How about the spring selling housing bust ? The northern burbs of Chicago are experiencing this at the moment.
Crystal ball gazing?
1) Predictions on sales declines % by the EOY
2) Prices ?
3) What will be the name of the next “hurricane” event to kick RE ?
4) Spillovers into the economy ?
“The northern burbs of Chicago are experiencing this at the moment.”
so are the northwest, west, southwest, saouth burbs asa well as the city
Chicago’s east burbs have been underwater for a very long time LOL
How about this idea for government revenue raising?
As you know you are not allowed to deduct capital losses on your own home, only losses on investment properties. How about having the IRS audit anyone who claims a loss on an investment property in the next few years, demanding to see purchase mortgage documents showing it was described as such? Former flippers could be confronted with two people on the other side of the table, an IRS investigator and a mortgage fraud investigator, and asked whether the property was their primary residence or not.
Fair or unfair?
Fair, but in many cases, I guess, it wouldn’t raise much revenue, because those flippers are bancrupt. It would be more a thing for the criminal justice system.
The IRS has a form for reporting tax fraud. The form is for reporting fraud in specific cases (you report the person, the amount, etc.), but you could try suggesting a general scheme:
http://www.irs.gov/compliance/enforcement/article/0,,id=106778,00.html
They prefer the reporter include name and address, but you can do it anonymously.
Is the sudden paradigm shift in the asset markets as scary as it looks? Or is this another market head fake, which will give way to another year of rapid U.S. stock price inflation? (For comparison, consider May 2006 versus June 2006-May 2007.) Maybe there has never been a better time to buy stocks?
Maybe there has never been a better time to buy stocks?
———————
Beginning to lean in that direction. NOT because of a good economy, but because there is nowhere to put one’s money that is free from manipulation.
Clearly, the “manipulators” want the stock market to go up, no?
So much for the hopes that the sea of vacant McMansions will all get soaked up by a flood of new immigrants all carrying $500,000 in cash in their back pockets…
Immigration compromise cracks
Senate vote rules out bipartisan reform bid
By Jonathan Weisman
THE WASHINGTON POST
June 8, 2007
WASHINGTON – A tenuous compromise to overhaul the nation’s immigration laws collapsed last night when senators from both parties refused to cut off debate and move to a final vote, handing the unlikely alliance of Democratic leaders and President Bush a setback on a major domestic priority.
Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., chided President Bush for failing to get GOP votes, saying Bush should be able to if he “has any clout at all within his own Senate Republican delegation.”
The defeat came after months of tedious negotiations and weeks of debate when a 45-50 procedural vote fell well short of the 60 needed to break the filibuster. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., then pulled the bill from the floor, while holding out hope that the Senate could resurrect the measure within weeks.
“I have every desire to complete this legislation. We all have to work, the president included, to get this legislation done,” Reid said last night, while cataloging a long list of futile efforts at compromise. “This bill is something that the country needs.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070608/news_1n8immig.html
Lou Dobson was scathing about this supposedly needed bill, and ecstatic over its defeat. He was right when he said the President and power brokers in Washington, with complete contempt for the voters, were determined to ram this bill through to please corporate interests and the interests of illegal immigrants (many of whom illegally vote in our elections). Perhaps now corporations will be forced to stop luring illegals here, or failing that, to pay for their medical care and education. They should also have to pay illegals the same wages they pay citizens, and to pay taxes on their earnings.
Again, our government has been subsidizing big business to the tune of billions of dollars every year. Had this bill passed, it would have guaranteed social security payments to illegal immigrants and their relatives back home, all of whom would themselves have been able to come here, too (sponsors said it was important to keep families together; they defined family to mean ALL relatives, however vague).
The bill also gave amnesty to any illegal stealing a U.S. citizen’s social security number, despite the horrific consequences such identity theft can have for the victim. Who came up with this idiotic concept?
As for the perpetually grinning former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. who goes on American television to tell us how wonderful all the illegals are and how law-abiding they are, it needs to be pointed out that roughly one-third of all violent criminals in our prison system are illegal immigrants, illegal immigrants are driving in this country without licenses or insurance (a huge problem), and people who sneak into other peoples homes (the U.S.) are not law-abiding by any stretch of the imagination. I believe the Senators who voted for this bill should open their own homes to illegal immigrants, sight unseen, and put their own money (instead of ours) where their mouths are. When Hillary Clinton issues an open house to illegals, and lets them live in her home and do anything there they want, and pays for all of this out of her own salary, THEN I will believe her and her “humanitarian” objectives. This goes for Bush and all the others as well.
illegal immigrants are driving in this country without licenses or insurance (a huge problem), and people who sneak into other peoples homes (the U.S.) are not law-abiding by any stretch of the imagination.
I’ve posted before about roomie’s illegal Mexican BF who knowingly drove with a suspended license (due to DUI). The second time he was apprehended was when he crashed into a utility pole, driving drunk again. No license, and on probation from first offense. These types of incidents are increasing in our area, all out of proportion to what the DUI convictions were pre-illegal alien invasion.
I’m glad the shamnesty bill went down in flames, but corporate America loves it its cheap labor. Remember when left and right joined with one voice against NAFTA? Lot of good that did.
(I used to watch Lou Dobbs but so much of what he reports is infuriating and I worry about my blood pressure.)
Corporate america loves lower cost labor. My stocks love that too. Do you own stocks?
I’m not supporting illegals, I’m just wondering about this anti-business aspect. People who pee in their own beer (investors in stock mutual funds in 401ks and IRAs by being against free enterprise).
As for illegals, why did you not bring up the fact that Demos love them because they will automatically get millions of more voters of entitlements and other socialists programs. Low income people (mostly ignorant about economics) tend to vote to enslave the goose that lays the golden egg - the businessman.
I did bring it up.
“the President and power brokers in Washington, with complete contempt for the voters, were determined to ram this bill through to please corporate interests and the interests of illegal immigrants (many of whom illegally vote in our elections)”
As for owning stocks, I would never knowingly buy stock in any company that exploited the poor, endangered national security, or abused children and animals. And investors have a moral obligation to investigate the companies they become involved with. We have far too many people in the world who couldn’t care less how they make money, as long as they make it. Wall Street thrives on the suffering of millions, and millions of ethically-challenged investors jump for joy at their own profiteering.
The businessman is not one-size-fits-all, and there are plenty of business people who actually have consciences and behave accordingly. Those who don’t really are not deserving of our pity.
Amen, Incredulous!!!!!
Corporate america loves lower cost labor. My stocks love that too. Do you own stocks?
Why the attitude? Yes I own stocks. I think it’s safe to say investors profited from the stock market pre-illegal alien invasion.
The illegals employed in my area work in small biz, mom and pop situations mainly - not corporate America. Or corporate New World Order, even. But they certainly have the effect of depressing wages on the lower end of the scale. How long will it be before that becomes a trickle-up effect? I’m already seeing it in the work I do, although I’m being affected by outsourcing, not illegals.
Incredulous.
great post.
I meant to type Lou Dobbs. Sorry/
YouTube is developing quite an extensive repository of housing bubble videos. I suggest a weekend thread on everyone’s favorites.
For instance, here is one with a recent news clip featuring both Ben Bernanke and David Lereah explaining the bursting bubble to an LA NBC TV news audience. It also features the obligatory realtor explanation of how “right now it’s the perfect time because it’s a buyers market right now and the buyers are gettin’ to know that…”
The newscaster’s parting shot is a beauty:
“The housing market: Once high flying, now coming in for a landing.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEIc9Mi5K08&mode=related&search=
Questions:
Did Halliburton move to Dubai to avoid the future government investigation of Halliburton’s sweetheart contracts?
How difficult will it be to for the next electees to obtain Halliburton records from Dubai?
Just a weekend thought.
Topic Idea - One for the FBs: Negotiation With Lenders
One of the things I’ve been wondering about is how many FBs are renegotiating with their lenders, and how. In particular, I recall reading recently, in these pages and others, that a lot of people had gotten placed in subprime loans even though they qualified for prime, because the mortgage brokers made a huge commission on the subprime product and the borrowers didn’t know any better. (There should be a page dedicated to outing these brokers for the scum they are, sackof$&’(#broker.com, but that’s a rant for another day.)
If you’re that borrower, why not go back to the lender and say ok, it’s your choice, you can take the keys and a $xx0,000 loss, or, you can cut my rate to what the best prime loan rate would have been, or even below that, in a fixed rate product (or perhaps an ARM locked for 7 more years)? If you’re the bank, would you rather take an REO at a six figure loss you have to eat right now, or a performing loan at a lower rate than you would prefer? If the loan is a purchase money loan for which the bank’s only recourse is to take the house at a huge up front loss, the straight-dollars-and-cents call may be in favor of keeping the borrower in here.
The same may apply for people who are not prime-qualified borrowers, though obviously, the equation changes somewhat if the bank thinks you won’t be able to make the new payments either.
Other ideas?
I know a lot of people here (self included) sometimes wish the worst for the FBs, since they are in large part responsible for the bubble, but hell, the banks were knowing participants here, so let’s distribute the pain…
Now for the unjust enrichment suits against brokers who lied to their clients about what they qualified for…
Here’s more on the sudden desire to sell things to renters. Before we had Home Depot trying to sell to renters. This week, I have started to hear Geico commercials on the radio for their renters’ insurance.
What’s really funny is how they start out by saying, “We think renters are cool.” I’m not kidding about this.
We think renters have disposable income.
Of course they do. Renters are the only ones who can afford insurance.
But, if you have insurance you don’t need lucky rabbit’s feet and Bailey the bunny gets his fuscia dyed foot reattached.
That is right up there with my favorite commercials of all times. Funny think is, I have no idea what insurance company did it.
Funny “thing” is….
Let’s talk about to much liquidity chasing too many illiquid assets. This does not bode well for the world economy.
We have been told that rate of homeownership has increased in the last housing bubble and that this was a good thing. While I think ownership IS good (I’m no socialist), I rather not call the holder of the title of real estate an owner if the equity is around 0%. When does a homedebtor in your eyes become an “owner” - 20% equity, 50%, or even 100%? 20% is used as a limit in some cases (PMI). Are there any statistics that not only give the average equity but also its distribution that one could determine how many people have at least 20% equity and how that number changed over the years? I would like to present the proponents of homeownership with some sobering numbers of how many “real” homeowners are around and how their number have been changing.
What do you do when the owners abandon the house next door? This just happened to me and I am in a “transitional” neighborhood in San Diego so I’d rather not have the house attracting bums, teens, and whatever else emerges from Mission Bay at night. Also, the family left behind a couple rabbits in cages so if they family does not come back for them when their food runs out I guess I will dump some into the cage
Are they like cats or dogs and need attention, too? What can I dump into a stupid little water feature besides a quart of 10W-30 to keep it from becoming a fountain West Nile Virus?
Make sure to check on the rabbits - they need food and water, they need cages cleaned or they will become unpleasant very rapidly, etc. There are rescues specifically for rabbits, and if the home is really abandoned, you should call one, or, if necessary, animal services, right away, please don’t wait.
I used to have a house trained rabbit (litter box), and he was a pleasure - smart, cute, and a great pet, and anyone who leaves an animal to die in a cage deserves the same fate.
check out bestfriends.com (maybe .org) - they have connections to rescues all over the coutry and can help. bunnies are very smart.
Mrquoi,
you are a very decent person to care for the rabbits, unlike your scumbag neighbors, who abandoned their animals to die of starvation. I do some limited dog rescue in NY, but there might be an animal rescue group in SD willing to help you with the rabbits. in the meantime, I ‘d be happy to send you some cash via paypal to help you with food costs. Just let me know.
Mrquoi
Are the little guys in direct sunlight? I would be very
concerned about such a situation. Rabbits also
like lots of greens. You didn’t say if the cages are
inside or outside. Personally, I would rescue first
and ask questions later. If I was taken to court,
not only would I welcome it, I would call every
friggin’ media outlet in town about the story.
bums, TEENS, and whatever else emerges from Mission Bay at night
a couple rabbits
Act fast, or it won’t be “a couple”.