Prices Continue To Dip From Inflated High-Water Marks
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Jackson County, Oregon’s residential real estate market is going through a variety of fits, spurts and convulsions heading into the summer selling season. The broad brush analysis is that median sales prices continue to dip from inflated high-water marks.”
“‘Some of it is people moving out of the area and needing to sell,’ said Rich Humphrey, broker in Medford. ‘There are investors that bought during the rising market and are having difficulty renting them or may have a loan that’s coming due. Lower-end prices have dropped under $200,000 and those are homes that first-timers can buy. But because a lot of that is investment inventory…which keeps supply high and puts pressure on the market to be lower.’”
“The housing market slump in Arkansas continued in April, according to figures released Monday by the Arkansas Realtors Association. The average price of a home sold in Washington County last month $170,104, compared with $190,668 for the same month a year ago, a drop of 10.8 percent.”
“Foreclosures have more than doubled over the last two years, both across the country and in the Philadelphia region. ‘Whether or not houses hold their value has come to be measured by blocks,’ said Chris Artur, of Artur Realty. ‘In places like West Mayfair, the best houses are holding or increase in value. On older blocks, there has already been a decline of 10 to 15 percent.’”
“Local realtors agree on one thing: it’s a buyer’s market. ‘I’d say it’s our worst in year in eight years,’ said Judy Lamphere of Sturgis (Michigan) Online Realty. ‘There are a lot of foreclosures.’”
“The Denver-area home sales market is flat overall. It’s unusual for the average price to be down when the high-end market is strong, because the expensive home sales typically skew the numbers upward. Blame the increasing number of sales of foreclosures being dumped on the market, said Chris Mygatt, president of Coldwell Banker Residential in Colorado.”
“‘Banks are getting rid of their foreclosures; they have become sellers, not listers,’ he said.”
“The Baltics have till recently been Europe’s hottest residential investment destination, with Estonian house prices (e.g.) rising 556.41% between 1997 and 2006, and 245.95% in the past five years.”
“In Eastern Europe, GPG sees various disadvantages in Russia and the Ukraine, which make them ‘unacceptable investment destinations.’ ‘Russia is very expensive, has high transaction costs, low gross rental income returns in Moscow, high taxes and an uncertain political environment,’ the GPG said, adding that the country’s strong GDP growth makes Russia attractive for some domestic investors, ‘but for foreign investors the risks are now too high.’”
“Thomson Riviera, a condominium development known for its record-setting prices, will not be allowed to sell property starting today.”
“The Shanghai municipal housing, land & resource administration bureau had been investigating the developers of Thomson Riviera for forging sales. The developer has also drawn a lot of negative press because of its high prices, which have climbed to more than 100,000 yuan per square meter.”
“A subprime-mortgage unit of American International Group offered inappropriate loans to some borrowers and charged fees that were too high, the Office of Thrift Supervision said Friday.”
“‘Some loans were due to reset in some way, and our concern was that a lot of folks would not be able to pay the higher rate and would enter foreclosure,’ said Kevin Petrasic, an agency spokesman.”
“Sales were swift when Winchester Homes began marketing Broad Creek Landing, a cul-de-sac community of 24 single-family houses not far from downtown Annapolis, so swift that Winchester officials saw no need to decorate their model home.”
“But 18 months later, the market has cooled and there are seven houses left to be sold, starting in the upper $700,000s.”
“While prices in places like Los Angeles have remained relatively firm, there are more and more bargains to be had there, thanks to a housing inventory that has fattened by 30 percent since last year, including a growing supply of foreclosed properties repossessed from borrowers who defaulted on high-interest subprime loans.”
“Take, for instance, the two-bedroom townhouse that Bryan Metoyer picked up last month at an auction in L.A. that disposed of 275 bank-owned properties in just a day. ‘I was trying to get it for under $300,000, but another bidder stayed right in there with me,’ he says of the competition, which he finally won with a $320,000 bid.”
“Still, Metoyer figures he saved about $50,000 from what similar units have sold for recently. And although he expects the market to remain soft for a while, ‘I don’t see a bubble bursting here. It’s either going to hold steady or go back up again. So either way, I win.’”
Another great week! My thanks to those who keep this blog going with support and donations. Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics.
From Bob Casagrand:
May 2007: San Diego Housing Market: single family attached and detached homes; The headline is simple, house sales decline further. Sales for May were 2,255, down almost 30% from May 06 and down 43% from May 05. Year-to-date sales of 11,181 are down 16% from the same period last year. We are seeing a progression in declining sales during a time when we should be in the peak selling season this does not bode well for the balance of the year. Pending sales for May totaled 2,616 which is an indicator that June performance will be similar to May.
Sales down 43% from May 2005……..
Brian Metoyer says ‘I was trying to get it for under $300,000, but another bidder stayed right in there with me,’ he says of the competition, which he finally won with a $320,000 bid.”
What Brian does not know is that the auction was handled by a SHILL bidder from US Homes Auction .com. The bidding rules allow the auctioner to open the bidding and keep bidding until the auction hits the reserved price the repo lender wants for the property. Brian was really bidding against the owner! It was a SHILL AUCTION. Look deep into the bidding disclosure rules, where it discloses these rules. US Home Auction is trying to do the same thing in Sacramento on June 23, but the covers have been pulled by the bubble bloggers at Sacramento Land(ing) blog. Go here to see the “rules” pulled from the US Home Auction web site: https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=20913262&postID=4453694713509414637
“Still, Metoyer figures he saved about $50,000 from what similar units have sold for recently. And although he expects the market to remain soft for a while, ‘I don’t see a bubble bursting here. It’s either going to hold steady or go back up again. So either way, I win.’”
WOW, WOW, WOW…………………
Yeah dude, congratulations, a huge profit is guaranteed! Housing only goes up, after all. I wonder why everyone else at the auction didn’t think of that. You might as well buy your CLK and your 60″ plasma today, because in 6 months you’re house will be worth at least double and you can take money out to pay back your car loan in cash!
“which he finally won with a $320,000 bid.”
Lotta weiners, err um winners.. whatever…
Just cracks me up to see $200k prices quoted for crap homes in these fricking backwaters (no offense intended). Before this shit went crazy a very nice home in exclusive hood here in Stockton was $200k. Now we fwd 5 years, with no real wages increase, and these prices are quoted for starter crap in Arkansas!!!
Could this crap have sold 5 years ago for even $60k? Starter crap here was $70k then with nice ones being $200k. Don’t even get me started on what the previously $200k property here sold for at the top, LMAO over a mill!!
Rents have only gone up about 20% in the time frame that this crap went up 5X!!!
These twits that signed on the line for a mill will run for the hills leaving foreclosure black holes in nice areas that will not allow inflated prices to escape. With ubertight credit I have no problem forseeing these nice areas falling well bellow $200k again. As the pendulumn swung last time in the 90’s the nicer areas commanded no premieum over the starter hoods, if they wanted to sell they had to price for the 1st time buyers because there were no move up buyers, they were underwater or thought RE was a huge scam.
“As the pendulumn swung last time in the 90’s the nicer areas commanded no premieum over the starter hoods.”
I think this is an excellent point. I witnessed the same thing in the DC suburbs in the mid 90s. In fact, if anything, the nicer hoods were cheaper on a sq. ft basis. It’s deja vu all over again.
And although he expects the market to remain soft for a while, ‘I don’t see a bubble bursting here. It’s either going to hold steady or go back up again. So either way, I win.’ I wonder how much it would cost to take Econ 101 and 102 at a community college in LA - may have been money well spent for Bryan
Based on what, exactly, Brian? I’m all ears. (”It’s either going to hold steady or go back up again” because he believes it to be so. He can’t believe otherwise; he can’t afford to.)
Hey, don’t be too hard on Bryan. If it weren’t for cluless knife-catchers like him, there wouldn’t be any sales. No sales = no comps PROVING that prices are falling. Sucke.. er, “winners” like him are very useful in declining markets.
so true, I am dying for few knife catchers in the two areas we are interested in, one sale a quarter doesn’t quite make the point, pun intended.
All I know is that he just bought something that he cannot turn around and sell for the same price. It is entirely possible that the value of his home will fall below $300,000 for the next 20 years.
Still, Metoyer figures he saved about $50,000 from what similar units have sold for recently. And although he expects the market to remain soft for a while, ‘I don’t see a bubble bursting here. It’s either going to hold steady or go back up again. So either way, I win.’”
Poster child for “jackass” magazine
Metoyer only pawn in game of life…
“Still, Metoyer figures he saved about $50,000 from what similar units have sold for recently. And although he expects the market to remain soft for a while, ‘I don’t see a bubble bursting here. It’s either going to hold steady or go back up again. So either way, I win.’”
Metoyer like candy!
And Kool-Aid -
Metoyer a young guy who wasn’t around in the late 1980’s when LA condo’s started their very slow (and painful) 40% dive over 6 years 1990 - 1996.
or has the internet to try researching something? he did know enough of what prices were similiar in the area. i like to watch how all the current REO’s that I am looking at are sitting. One condo I made an offer on last summer is still for sale. It was only $15k below what they were asking too. Time to go back to what my Mom has been telling me to offer for the last 2 years. 50% of whatever they are listing. =)
I made an all cash offer on an 2700 SF house in Sacramento for $265,000. They took a contingent offer for $275,000, subject to the new loan. I notice today the house is back on the market. Deal cancelled. I had a tenant for the house a month ago. Don’t think I would offer over $275,000 now. 11 times rent. I am going to sit tight for a while. Casseopia and Intrepid have convinced me we have much further to fall. Thank you Ben.
Ben,
Thanks for all the hard work. Hope you making some cash off this blog.
“Take, for instance, the two-bedroom townhouse that Bryan Metoyer picked up last month at an auction in L.A. that disposed of 275 bank-owned properties in just a day. ‘I was trying to get it for under $300,000, but another bidder stayed right in there with me,’ he says of the competition, which he finally won with a $320,000 bid.”
“Still, Metoyer figures he saved about $50,000 from what similar units have sold for recently. And although he expects the market to remain soft for a while, ‘I don’t see a bubble bursting here. It’s either going to hold steady or go back up again. So either way, I win.’”
The other bidder may have been a shill! Either way he will have negative equity soon. Too early in the game to be getting great deals.
He will be one of the people who will be mad and angry in a few months. “But…but….but I bought this at an auction I was promised a good price this was going to go up!!!!!”
People at auctions now are what I like to call “moron light”, not complete and utter stuipd but far from bright.
‘I don’t see a bubble bursting here. It’s either going to hold steady or go back up again. So either way, I win.’”
Just as long as you’re happy, buddy. Though you probably got scammed for 20k from the get go.
I wonder if you have to pay a fee for auctions as well, more icing on the crap cake I guess. I would bet there was a fee, good old salt in the open wound.
Usually 5% is added on for the auction company… you need to read the terms closely before going in or you could be screwed.
“It’s either going to hold steady or go back up again… either way, I win…”
Actually, notwithstanding the third option of going down (which this nimrod doesn’t even consider, so flush is he with the thrill of the chase), if it “holds steady” you are still a loser, factoring in inflation, holding costs, and sales costs when sold. Maintaining your position is a negative over time.
Oh man, this brings back some bad memories of buying “great deals” in the stock market with my first few Real Job paychecks… in early 2001.
At least I only blew money I had. I still clearly remember a co-worker announcing he’d just bought $20k of SUNW on margin @27 after having watched it make a comeback in January. These wonderful lessons that life teaches us, how can they be forgotten so quickly?!
And although he expects the market to remain soft for a while, ‘I don’t see a bubble bursting here’.
Now, good journalism would have provided an insight into this line of thinking. We see (and immediately and correctly bash) these statements here on this blog, but I really would like to have somebody take people with that logic and ask a few more questions. I wonder makes somebody who admits that the price of real estate right around his newly purchased grenade just quickly dropped 14% think that there is no remaining downside from that point.
Or would I just get upset learning about that thought process? Probably.
Have you ever met those people who let talk radio do all their thinking for them? They will not cross reference their purported facts they spew on their radio programs (left or right) and just accept it all as gospel truth. Well, those people met an objective person with web savvy who drills down for the truth, and doesn’t accept anything as true until proven true. We tell these people that in fact what they believe to be true is in fact false, and then they begin to flip out and have that nervous laugh and start leaving skid marks all over the conversation - jumping from conjecture to canned politico propaganda catch phrases. I believe it would be something like that….you cannot educate the willfully stupid.
…”ever met”??? It’s hard NOT to meet someone like that in everyday life.
Apropos of Patricia’s “moron light” comment, I admit I bought two pieces ofjunk desert at an auction in 1992. About four years too soon. Fortunately the sum of their two prices was under $5,000. The more expensive one, I ended up being able to donate to charity and received an income tax deduction for the full purchase price, based on my notice from the assessor. Whew. The less expensive one, which cost me only $400, also costs me about nine dollars a year in taxes, and is only about 100 feet from the nearest utility pole, so who knows, someone might want it some day. What’s my point? — go to an auction for fun if you must, but not for profit.
One bidder got the property, the other got a big bonus from his employer.
Did he get it for $320K or does he owe the auction company a fee too?
5% or roughly 16k in fees for the pleasure of being at an auction. From what I understand from learning here today.
does that get wrapped up into the loan? Or people actually have this money laying around as well? oh maybe it gets paid with the massive equity he will get.
Although Ben quotes the Philadelphia Inquirer correctly, the numbers in its first table say something else. According to the table, the number of foreclosures in most of the 8 Phila-area counties was smaller in April 06 than in April 05, and the April 07 total for the 8 counties is still not as high as the foreclosures in April 05. In particular, the number of foreclosures in Montgomery and Delaware counties, which cover the fashionable western burbs (”Main Line”), are lower for April 07 than they were even for April of 06. I don’t know why. And I am not really happy about it! I was planning to spend this coming winter in Phila area (probably still will) but it doesn’t look as though I’m going to find any great RE bargains there. Maybe Everyone is going to PA where the state income tax is a flat 3% (lowest East Coast rate except for Fla’s 0%). Hmm, wonder if I’ll end up back in Cali …
DC MRIS numbers are out also… not nearly as much change as I had expected. DC proper seems to be holding up especially well… but then again, there are tons of new condos that aren’t listed, so the stats are a little misleading.
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/
What’s the percentage of IO/ARMS in PA? Remember that SoCal has as high as 40% of all mortgages taken out in 2005, 2006.
Yes, that would explain most of the difference. It’s just that the quote in Ben’s post was, “Foreclosures have more than doubled in the past two years, both across the country and in the Philadelphia region.” But apparently this is not true, unless this particular month was anomalous. Showing that even MSM journalists can err on the bearish side, oddly enough.
I’m not sure I agree with those foreclosure numbers. I’ve been tracking the sheriff sales for chester county and those numbers have doubled so i don’t see how the number of foreclosures could not be higher.Now granted not all houses that show up on the sheriff sale list do ended up being sold but still….these are the figures i have
2006 2007
Feb 53 84
March 50 51
April 50 119
May 55 99
June 66 94
easier to read..And this is only Chester county
…..2006— 2007
Feb… 53— 84
March… 50— 51
April ….50— 119
May ….55— 99
June… .66— 94
“Take, for instance, the two-bedroom townhouse that Bryan Metoyer picked up last month at an auction in L.A. that disposed of 275 bank-owned properties in just a day. ‘I was trying to get it for under $300,000, but another bidder stayed right in there with me,’ he says of the competition, which he finally won with a $320,000 bid.”
“I’ll huff, and I’ll puff, and I’blow that house down.” And down came the house made of straw, and the bubble with it.
Funny thing how that “other” bidder kept right on bidding for ALL the properties right until the end and managed to just “lose” all the auctions. Wink. Wink.
mmmm… well that is how an auction works. if the other bidder made another bid and Metoyer didn’t, then Metoyer would have managed to just “lose”
i’m sure there’s plenty of people out there honestly bidding, cause some are still buying on the standard market
True enough but don’t think there’s not someone in the crowd tagging the marks. Wasn’t this the auction that had a minimum bid? I would venture to say that this marketing scheme was planned well in advance. It would also be interesting to see what lender authorized that dump and what they actually took them back for. That information would be very telling, and probably very surprising and disheartening to those who got sucked into buying.
“Take, for instance, the two-bedroom townhouse that Bryan Metoyer picked up last month at an auction in L.A. that disposed of 275 bank-owned properties in just a day. ‘I was trying to get it for under $300,000, but another bidder stayed right in there with me,’ he says of the competition, which he finally won with a $320,000 bid.”
“I’ll huff, and I’ll puff, and I’blow that house down.” And down came the house made of straw, and the bubble with it.
Denver is more than flat. Friend of mine been in RE for 12 years, called this week looking for a job in another industry. Told him I don’t have any clients looking to hire people who get out of bed at 10 AM. Some friend I am.
Boulder results in May are down 6.6% YOY. And it was supposed to be different here.
Should have written:
Boulder median PRICES in May are down 6.6% YOY.
Got a source on that 6.6% decline in price YOY for Boulder? there is a clown/agent http://www.boulderrealty.blogspot.com/
who keeps espousing that Boulder is so unique that it won’t go down, he summarily dismissed my modest 15-20% 2 to 3 yr decline prediction of 6 mths ago
http://www.baraonline.com/news/stats
BTW, boulder is now down 15% from the peak in Feb 07
Excellent news on Boulder. But wait, I thought Boulder was a different animal, and moved with the markets on the coasts. Oh wait, I guess that’s still true… Maybe in 2010 if I can hold out…
Lowballer, you are SO cold. (And I’m typing this with a big grin.)
Nightwatchmen jobs are available, you can get out of bed at noon!
“Nightwatchmen jobs are available, you can get out of bed at noon!”
i have been trying to figure out what new job my creepy LL is doing now that being an OC mortgage closer is closing up shop. for my skanky LL i suggest: bail bonds guy, corrections officer, claims customer service, repo man, body guard for “wanted realtors”. he’s too mean for starbucks.
what does a former loan guy do now?
Does anyone have any thoughts around whether it is better for a struggling home-owner to arrange a short-sale or just go through foreclosure?
I would think a short-sale would be good if the sale price covered most of the mortgage, since it would leave less of a black mark on your credit. On the other hand, a foreclosure would be best if current market value would leave a HUGE amount of the mortgage unpaid since you would then have a big tax liability (i.e. since the lender would report the forgiven value of the loan as income to the IRS).
But maybe I am looking at this too simplistically. Can a lender pursue your other assets once you walk away from a home? If so, a foreclosure wouldn’t help if the bank could still come after your other assets anyway, making a short sale even more attractive.
By the way, I am asking this because a friend of mine is in trouble in Florida and the bank has told them they will accept a short sale.
Completely subjective to purchase price, loan, and current market conditions. If you post all the details I am sure you will receive some sage advice on this board.
Tell your friend — whilst his credit is still good — to buy a NEW home with a 100K cash-back deal at closing. Then convert the 100K into liquid assets worth less than 10K each. I believe Florida cannot seize personal jewelry in BK and other actions, so convert some of it to SOLID gold pieces of jewelery and put them in a safe deposit box. Then default on both houses.
If your friend is really ambitious they can do this 8-10 times and take off for Brazil, Bermuda, etc with $1 million rolled up in condoms in their stomach.
LOL
“By the way, I am asking this because a friend of mine is in trouble in Florida and the bank has told them they will accept a short sale.”
Sniglet, are you in trouble? lol
“Sniglet, are you in trouble?”
Honest, it isn’t me. I live in the Pacific Northwest, and everyone knows we are “special” here, with a real-estate market that only ever goes up.
My friend is a school-teacher near Ft Lauderdale.
Ok, take this scenario: you have a mortgage for $500,000 but the true market value is only $250,000, and you have $500,000 in the bank.
Could you just walk away from the house and keep all your cash in the bank with a foreclosure? In a short sale you would at least have to pay income tax on the $250,000 the lender forgives.
Mail back the keys and take off to Tahiti.
Tahiti is nice Bora Bora and Moorea are better
I’m not sure what the law is in Florida regarding whether mortgage loans there are recourse or non-recourse (it varies by state). Your friend should check with an accountant on how he would be taxed under different scenarios because I believe there is a difference (cancellation of debt is treated as income and taxed at ordinary income tax rates; gain on sale is treated as capital gains, with an exemption for the first $250K or $500K if married). My brief review of IRS materials seems to indicate that how the IRS characterizes it is based, in part, on whether the debt is recourse or non-recourse.
Also, if the debt is recourse, your friend should also check with an attorney as to whether the bank can go after other assets if they proceed with a non-judicial foreclosure. Here in CA, if the lender forecloses through non-judicial foreclosure, then the lender is barred from getting a deficiency judgment (i.e., they can’t go after other assets). But these laws vary by state, so your friend should check with an attorney (and an accountant regarding how the transaction will be taxed). It could be money very well spent if they can avoid the COD income and preserve their other assets.
By the way, below is the link to the IRS site for the FAQ on some of this.
http://www.irs.gov/faqs/faq4-4.html
Surely the IRS doesn’t vary state by state, though. Sniglet believes (correctly, I think) that the debt forgiven in a short sale is treated as taxable income. But isn’t this true in a foreclosure as well? C’mon, someone here knows the answer.
I believe that a foreclosure could also have a taxable amount charged to the foreclosed on owner on the loss by the lender ,if the lender files it .
In a foreclosure, you walk away from all home-related obligations except ad valorem property taxes. In a short sale, not so. IRS will charge you ordinary income tax on the amount of loan forgiveness, and you will have to settle any leins, utility bills or other home-related expenses. There are potentially other tax liabilities in a short sale, such as recapture of depreciation for office-in-home deductions. Consult a tax lawyer before doing a short sale.
Totally OT, but I was just scrolling through some quotes from Jefferson. Wow, was he smart - and prescient.
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.” –Thomas Jefferson, Letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin (1802)
I know a guy who started a bank in about 1983 in colorado, it’s now a chain of banks all across the W.Slope. He owns a ferrari dealership also, big expensive houses, and is very very wealthy. Started with 200k. He created no product, simpy charged people to use money. Usuary used to be a crime, but now we applaud it. I think the Google video “Money as Debt” is an eye opener.
I know a guy who started a bank in about 1983 in colorado, it’s now a chain of banks all across the W.Slope. He owns a ferrari dealership also, big expensive houses, and is very very wealthy. Started with 200k. He created no product, simpy charged people to use money. Usuary used to be a crime, but now we applaud it. I think the Google video “Money as Debt” is an eye opener.
sorry - seeing double today…
they’re much more ethical in North Korea and Cuba, no usury there. also no cars, soap, toilet paper, home heat, little food, everyone lives in doll size high rise apartments…
Slaves are more productive when they stupidly believe they’re free; unlike North Korea, where they still employ whips.
Which is one the reasons NK exists - so that those here can point to it and say, ‘Hey, at least our masters are better than theirs!’
Thus the origin of ‘I owe, I owe, it’s off to work I go.’.
I once saw a car with something like this in a sign at the back window:
“I own, you owe, so off to work you go to pay me my interest”
Maybe not the exact words, but something like that.
Got 10% down?
Nobody is forcing anybody to take out a loan. You can also deposit money and get over 5% interest and make money for doing nothing.
Borrowers just need to be smarter and educate themselves. Ask friends and coworkers about financial decisions. Everybody knows somebody who is smart. Look on the internet. I’m sick of people acting like sheep, getting sheared, then blaming it on the shepherd.
You wouldnt believe how many people won’t put their money into ING or HSBC making 5% and just leave it in their checking account making nothing, or putting it into CDs for a year. Kind of the same group of people who arent saving for a rainy day or retirement. But oh well.
I also don’t believe that we have to spoon feed information into everyone, so that sucks if they are too busy or stupid to do anything on their own. Just as well start giving out handicap plaques to the masses of brain dead.
Check out some of these gems.
“The few who understand the system, will either be so
interested from it’s profits or so dependant on it’s
favors, that there will be no opposition from that
class.”
– Rothschild Brothers of London, 1863
“Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not
who makes it’s laws.”
– Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
“Most Americans have no real understanding of the
operation of the international money lenders. The
accounts of the Federal Reserve System have never been
audited. It operates outside the control of Congress
and manipulates the credit of the United States.”
– Sen. Barry Goldwater (Rep. AR)
“Whoever controls the volume of money in any country
is absolute master of all industry and commerce.”
– James A. Garfield, President of the United States
“Banks lend by creating credit. They create the means
of payment out of nothing.”
– Ralph M. Hawtrey, Secretary of the British Treasury
“To expose a 15 Trillion dollar ripoff of the American
people by the stockholders of the 1000 largest
corporations over the last 100 years will be a tall
order of business.”
– Buckminster Fuller
“Every Congressman, every Senator knows precisely what
causes inflation…but can’t, (won’t) support the
drastic reforms to stop it (repeal of the Federal
Reserve Act) because it could cost him his job.”
– Robert A. Heinlein, Expanded Universe
“It is well that the people of the nation do not
understand our banking and monetary system, for
if they did, I believe there would be a revolution
before tomorrow morning.”
– Henry Ford
it’s = it is
its = possessive
Those Rothschilds should have gone to grammar school!
revolt
Interesting. It has been mentioned here before. The Fed is NOT the 4th branch of gov’t and they have more power over me than the 3 branches combined. This is very scary. It has completely fvcked us up beyond recognition.
ask these gold site geniuses what their track record is. I absolutely do not take ANY financial advise from anyone without a verifiable investment track record, even if they are willing to exchange gold on their site for worthless dollars.
The Lydians made the first coins out of Electrum, a mixture of Gold & Silver, over 2,600 years ago…
The start of a verifiable investment track record, yes.
http://www.thebritishmuseum.ac.uk/explore/highlights/highlight_objects/cm/e/electrum_1/6_stater.aspx
Hmm, Brad, this doesn’t seem to refer to any of the immediately preceding comments. Where does it tie in?
Quotes from Jefferson above came off a gold site perhaps? Seems likely.
Also, in response to lost, it’s just crazy to say that banking doesn’t create any product. Raising capital, lending money, assessing risks, taking risks - this is what creates wealth - it gets fields plowed and planted, factories built, and schools going.
To tie it back together - Jefferson wasn’t against banking. He was against central banking. And most Americans would be pretty unhappy if they had to learn which banks’ notes (currencies) they could trust, and how much they should have to discount each from face value - as was done in Jefferson’s time.
a regular bank = no problem
our central bank = big problem
ever been to a gold site? they constantly regurgitate stuff designed to put the inflation scare into you so you will order something from them- the undereducated masses are susceptible to rabble rousing about crooked bankers, the fed, various conspiracies. It makes loosers feel better to be able to fix the blame on someone else. We live in the land of opportunity, immigrants barely speaking english come here and get rich by working hard and saving…
What’s a looser? Someone who took “fleet?”
Brad, you don’t have a friggin clue. Stick to your RE comments.
Friend or enem… -
“they constantly regurgitate stuff designed to put the inflation scare into you so you will order something from them- the undereducated masses are susceptible to rabble rousing about crooked bankers, the fed, various conspiracies”
you think the fed and the banks, who create money out of nothing, are not crooked? if we did that, we’d be put in jail as counterfeiters. no, there is no need to prove any conspiracy, you can see the crooked system stealing your money through inflation. just look at an M3 chart, if you can still find one!
gold has done better than the markets and you have to be crazy not to think there is inflation right now.
“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.”
A quote from a very uneducated fellow named Alan Greenspan.
I used to make the illegals coming here in droves argument too. But, are housing prices sustainable? Are two hour commutes sustainable so one can live in a poorly built Mcmansion? How are we going to pay our 50 trillion in long term liabilities? Can we keep passing off our debt ad infinitum? Is there a free lunch?
I agree, if the worse case scenarios of what “goldsites” predict does come to pass gold ain’t going to help much. By the way the term “loser” is so pejorative. How about socially challenged?
How come i’m seeing no dumping of foreclosed properties by the lenders here in Phoenix….
Can someone from FL or Denver enlighten me as to what kind of REO auctions they are seeing. I am using FL and CO as the canary in the mine. They are taking the bullet for the team so the rest of us could be prepared for what is to follow.
got cash?
Give it time, they are going to get crushed with using this paradigm. One thing about American business, it does not act fast ever, to changing conditions unless it is stock driven….even then. I sell to large companies, they never can make a decision quickly.
If you’re interested, there are REOs in Queen Creek in the $120s to $130s now. But I take it that you are not insane, and thus not interested in QC!
QC !!! might as well be on Mars..
just curious, how big are these $120 jobs.
Queen Creek! I have an idea… you could get an REO on the cheap and turn it into a vacation home like our old friends Xavier and Krista Johnson.
It’s like planting a tree that blooms money every single month!
so far the ones I have seen have been a. “fake” auctions with limits, and very lightly attended. I am hoping by sept or so the real auctions occur, that said, I am seeing one or two REO’s show up every week in the two limited areas I am watching.
maybe they have too many to dump??
http://www.freeforeclosuredatabase.com/arizona/phoenix-arizona_foreclosures.php
i’ve got a client in minnesota who purchased a home at 550k then refied the 2nd and took out as much cash as possible… the lender did a drive bye and valued the home at 700k.. which allowed her to pull out all the improvements 35k and another 40k over the purchase price.. they have assets and never use credit only to buy houses.. but they can buy cash and wait a 3-5 years when there credit is good to refi if they buy.. I believe he would owe tax on the money taken out over the basis.. if house went forclouser and sold for 450-500k.. he has all his money out and then some..
What would you do? Pay cash of 100-150k to keep your credit clean.. knowing your not going to buy for 3-5 years and could pay cash? or do you think the lender will hunt them down for the owed balance.. he would only pay tax on the 40k over the basis i believe.. any thoughts?
Client should repay the money borrowed if able.
i agree! what is all this sh!t of paid 500, worth 250, have 500 in the bank.
you screwed up and bought it at the wrong price- SUCK IT UP…
My advice: Be sure your sin will find you out. You are basically asking whether these people should act ethically or not.
If he lied on his credit application I would lock him up for a while and let him think about his dilema. (Unless of course he decides to pay the loan in full and on time
)
With regards to the Southern Oregon article, you may recall how Greg Stiles’ last article in May touted Jacksonville as the silver lining, since it was the only Jackson county town that showed an improvement when comparing trailing three-month periods YOY.
Well, no such luck this month: Jacksonville is down 14.4% comparing the last three months to last year, and the downslope is steepening: Jacksonville’s median sales price is down 30% in May compared to April. Of course April’s median was a fluke in the first place.
Of course, there’s no mention of Jacksonville in this months RE article…
For data junkies, here’s the Jackson County MLS data as of the end of May: http://www.jacstats.com
thanks, I’m actually interested in jacksonville. might move up there once I can get my nice flat 5 acres for $100K and build me a straw bale.
AshlandRenter:
There are hardly ANY specifics about anything in that article. Look at the statistics for the individual towns, and no wonder! Ashland median down 22% versus last year, and active listings up 38%.
To call this “fits, spurts and convulsions heading into the summer selling season” is just beyond beyond.
Another gem from the Mail Tribune article, with clueless appraiser Roy Wright channeling Chance the Gardener:
“That kind of fluctuation shows that we’re in a transition period, like the weather,” said Medford appraiser Roy Wright. “We’ve been in 90s and it has cooled off, but we know warm weather is ahead.”
Comparing the downturn to a little cool front in June, with a rebound inevitable. Even the appraisers are cheerleaders these days.
What he really meant to say is
Give me a “J!”
Give me a “O!”
Give me a “B!”
The weather–a nice analogy. However a bit misleading in that weather changes in a day or two but RE takes years to play out.
Breaking News! A house of Gulf Blvd. in Hoitey Toitey Belleair Beach (just south of Clearwater Beach) posted a sign “Going to Foreclosure - Make An Offer.” Oh, my. The snots who fought tooth and nail not to allow any beach access to “outsiders” are gonna love this. There goes the neighborhood - or at least their perception of it.
That long forgotten yet simple Axiom of Finance that states, Borrowed Credits and Suicide Loans MUST be REPAID with substancial INTEREST, will be relearned this summer..the HARD WAY !
“Where foreclosure risk is highest”
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/070607/060707_high_risk_foreclosure_areas.html?.v=1&.pf=personal-finance
The top 10 judged with the lowest risk include Phoenix at number one, West Palm Beach, Florida, Ft. Lauderdale and Salt Lake City.
Yeah…Ok…These “analysts” really have no clue do they?
“CoreLogic, after studying 150,000 loan transactions, found that for every one percentage point increase in the foreclosure rate, the likelihood of fraud jumps 4 percent.”
Are foreclosures driving fraud or fraud driving foreclosures? It seems there’s some of each case and a growing amount of both. If the rate of foreclosures exceeds 25 percent, does the amount of fraud exceed 100 percent?!
“The news is not all dire, however, CoreLogic still judges the overwhelming majority of housing markets to have only moderate or low potential for mortgage delinquencies.”
The risk of foreclosures in the “lowest risk” locations might indeed be less than the higher risk locations with current economic problems, but even these “lowest risk” locations appear to be headed toward foreclosure rates not seen since the Great Depression. I still fail to see how it’s not eventually going to be “bad” almost everywhere, varying some in timing and degree.
Interesting list of potential foreclosure cities. I don’t see how any place in Florida could be considered low risk. I’ve been keeping an eye on Salt Lake City, which has been one of the best markets. Housing tracker shows that asking prices are still up about 3% YOY and inventory is up 90% YOY. Asking prices are down about 3% in the last 3 months and inventory has been growing at 10% per month. I guess that the list of which cities have a risk for foreclosures is backward looking (at rates for the last months and years) and not forward looking (rapid increase in prices and inventory).
From Yahoo/Realty Times:
Real Estate Sky Won’t Fall: Here’s Why
http://tinyurl.com/2yt927
” 3. There is no bubble.
The value of real estate isn’t driven by speculation; it’s driven by its utility…Increasing development costs absolutely guarantee that new construction will cost more than existing properties are selling for.”
Ummmmm, yeah, then riddle me this, batman…why does new construction cost LESS (especially if you consider concessions and rebates) than “used” homes in many areas?
He/she goes on to say:
“This factor alone has caused many developers to mothball projects in the pipeline until shortages again push prices up.”
Many developers, except for the many developers that continue building, knowing that they can STILL undercut the “used” homes in the area.
Freakin’ shill puff pieces masquerading as journalism.
Here is the author’s info…I might have to email him and ask him about the “Increasing development costs absolutely guarantee that new construction will cost more than existing properties are selling for.” I seem to remember that both materials pricing and labor costs have been trending downward in residential construction…and that builders have been pricing below those that bought just a year before…
http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/GeorgeMantor.htm
I was all about to call this guy on his “absolutely guarantee that new construction will cost more than existing properties are selling for.” comment, when I realized he had an out: he said “what existing properties are SELLING for.” To the casual observer, it looks like he is claiming that new construction prices will always go up. However, the only thing he is REALLY saying is that new homes will allways SELL for more than a comparable used home will SELL for. Well duh. That has nothing to do with “development costs always go up”, that has to do with, all other things being rqual, people will tend to pay a bit more for a newer home than they would for the exact same “used home”. Pretty tricky shilling, but I give him credit for being clever!
Brought to you out of desperation buy(subliminal hint) your totally unbiased real estate professional who is running out of credit card runway to put gas in their Mercedes/Lexus
8. Real estate is a great way to build wealth.
You have to live somewhere. If you rent, you are making some or all of someone else’s mortgage payment. But even if you have to work two jobs and barely scrape by to make your own mortgage payment, you are building equity that over time will be quite substantial.
If you think you can not afford to buy in this market then you are not working enough jobs to pay for the mortgage! Shame on you lazy people! Remember, you are not a debt slave because over time you will build substantial equity!
Even at this late date, (June 7,2007) the RE shills are still preaching this mantra.
Got 10% down?
More REIC propaganda http://realestate.yahoo.com/Real_estate_news/story?s=rytimes/item-4bcc1fc619fd6bf106034420ddf198de.html
Damn, you guys are fast. Disregard my post
Heh heh heh!
Regarding the Jackson County Oregon MLS Stats: 2782 homes for sale with an average of 182 homes selling per month (and that is based on the generally good Mar-May selling season) means almost 16 months of inventory. That is compared to 10.9 months for the same period of time, in 2006; which is compared to 3.4 months for the same period of time in 2005. Yep! The local RE folks continue to sit in their proverbial peyote tent to conjur up their RE forecasts.
Winchester Homes?
Really?