June 10, 2007

A Dose Of Reality In Florida

The Miami Herald reports from Florida. “With the housing market stuck in slow motion, more and more condos nearing completion, and many jittery preconstruction buyers wanting out as closing day approaches, Magdiel Guillemi’s betting he’ll be able to buy at steep discounts. Then he hopes to sell for a profit. The Florida Legislature starts a special session this week to consider lowering property taxes, a move he thinks could spur renewed buying activity and endanger the low-cost deals he’s scouting.”

“‘If they cut taxes that will motivate individual buyers,’ said Guillemi. ‘And I want to get in before they do. I don’t want to be left with the crumbs.’”

“Guillemi is focusing on a unit at the Brickell on the River condo in Miami. He said the owner bought it for $341,000 and is trying to sell for $280,000.”

“‘The seller has two other properties under foreclosure and is having trouble making mortgage payments,’ said Guillemi. ‘I’m trying to pick it up for $260,000.’”

“But not everyone is convinced a property tax cut in Tallahassee will cure the housing markets ills. Among the other issues the market must work through are: A giant oversupply of homes: more than 76,000 were listed for sale in April in Broward and Miami-Dade counties compared to some 50,000 a year ago.”

“Over the next 18 months about 20,000 new condo units are expected to come onto the market in Miami-Dade County alone, possibly spiking unsold inventory as those units are put back on the market for resale.”

“Analyst Jack McCabe, who is advising large vulture investors on bulk deals, said the market is too sick to recover from a tax reduction alone. A big property tax cut may reignite buying now, he said, but would effectively create a false bottom.”

“‘Meaningful reduction will slow down the correction cycle but the correction is still inevitable,’ said the Deerfield Beach analyst, who has warned for some time about too much construction going up too fast. ‘The market is so sick it will take a while to cure this,’ he said. ‘This is not a head cold, it is more like pneumonia.’”

The Herald Tribune. “There are about 500 unsold luxury units in downtown Sarasota, or about an 18-month supply at current absorption rates. From May 2006 to May 2007, only 324 downtown condominium units sold.”

“That somewhat bleak appraisal of the city’s condo scene was the subject of a standing-room-only meeting of about 75 local real estate agents. Perhaps the most telling moment came when Louise Guido, who served as moderator, asked for a show of hands from those who thought the condo market had bottomed. No hands went up.”

“Al Horrigan, chief executive and broker of Bradenton’s RSVP Associates was in the room and thought ‘it was a dose of reality.’ ‘No one argued that things were well in the condo marketplace,’ he said.”

“Guido suggested that, given the high inventory levels, many condos would not be selling anytime soon and that agents should counsel their sellers to lease them out until the market improves.”

“Guido gave examples of new two-bedroom and two-bath condos fetching $1,600 to $2,000 per month on annual leases.”

“‘Investors have dried up. Some investors have multiple properties, mortgage rates have risen and the absorption rate will get worse,’ said Guido, who also observed that prices have fallen to the ‘pre-construction prices of 2004.’”

“‘When you consider that a mortgage on that kind of property carries a monthly payment of $3,000 to $5,000 a month plus property taxes and condo fees, there is still some serious hemorrhaging occurring,’ Horrigan said.”

“‘One shared opinion is that the investor market has substantially dwindled, creating a bloated inventory,’ said Cheryl Loeffler of Sky Sotheby’s. ‘In the face of weak demand and affordability issues, it is going to take aggressive pricing and uniqueness, such as location and amenities, to move sales forward.’”

“‘People are looking to figure out how to get out and get their money back,’ Horrigan said. The deposit ‘is out of your wallet and has been for a couple of years. While it would be painful to walk away, because the money is already gone, it won’t change your lifestyle. Close on it and start running negative at $3,000 to $5,000 a month, and it becomes lifestyle-altering.’”

“Horrigan’s ‘tea leaves’ tell him ‘things will be selling below purchase price as people try to recoup.’”

The Daily News. “In another sign of the Emerald Coast’s cooling housing market, the number of foreclosures is up significantly across Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Walton counties.”

“According to Metro Market Trends Inc, foreclosures are more than five times higher in Okaloosa County so far this year than in all of 2006. Foreclosures have more than doubled in Walton County and jumped by more than 60 percent in Santa Rosa County.”

“‘A lot of folks got these interest-only loans as a chance to enter into a home,’ said Realtor Lilly Vining. ‘And then, whammo, their payment rises, and they can’t make that payment.’”

“‘I really believe that a lot of foreclosures are the result of purchasing in an inflated market … and the entirely wrong mortgaging programs,’ she said. ‘People are not researching the loans. Just because you qualify now doesn’t mean you’ll be able to pay it in the future.’”

“‘I think we’re going to see more foreclosures,’ said Realtor Ray DiTirro. ‘I think it’ll continue for the rest of the summer.’”

“DiTirro said the rise in foreclosures is due to buyers jumping into interest-only loans, 100 percent loans and adjustable-rate mortgages. ‘These are the people who bought high and had little or no equity in the house,’ he said. ‘I think people got caught in the euphoria.’”

“Vining said she works hard to educate buyers about the ups and downs of the market. ‘Sellers really need to understand we’re not in an inflated market and haven’t been,’ she said. ‘You’ve got to counsel your buyer. You’ve got to find out everything, not just what you can afford now.’”




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63 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-06-10 06:25:12

‘FORT LAUDERDALE In the midst of a stalled housing market, another high-rise condo has been approved for downtown.’

‘Treesdale Condominiums, a Bradenton condo conversion complex, is cutting prices and adding incentives in an attempt to get buyers. Developer Osso Development has lopped $20,000 off the prices of all units. Prices are now $89,000 for a one-bedroom, $109,900 for a two-bedroom and $129,900 for a three-bedroom.’

‘Osso is also offering ‘free rent, mortgage payments of up to $11,000 and decorator furnishing packages,’ the developer said in a statement.’

‘There are over 500 condos on the market in downtown Sarasota, not including Pineapple Square or The Quay,’ notes Guido in her marketing materials. She plans to ‘discuss current and future trends, and highlight what the best prices now are in the market.’

‘Suzanne Schuster, a Realtor (in) Sarasota, has been advertising a ‘guaranteed buyback’ for a home for sale in Lakewood Ranch. The offer works like this: The contract states that if after 18 months the buyers decide that they want to or, for unforeseen circumstances, have to, sell the home, Schuster will buy it back from them at the original price.’

Comment by Chip
2007-06-10 07:53:42

I need to get over to Sarasota and see some of these places. Unless the prices difference is huge, which I suppose it may be, I can’t understand why anyone would buy a condo conversion instead of a purpose-built condo. Newer condos often offer two covered/garage parking spaces instead of one, and better other amenities. There also has been a tremendous improvement in how solid new units feel, relative to the most recent building codes.

Every time I drive I-4 northwest through downtown Orlando, at Colonial Drive I look at a condo conversion on the left and remember how many years it was a motel, and how awful it looked after a hurricane damaged it. I thought it would be rebuilt as a motel, but it was converted to condos instead. Other than being walking distance to the basketball arena and the performing arts center, it’s in what I consider a miserable location. Can’t imagine who would have wanted to own in that building.

 
Comment by Bill
2007-06-10 08:57:28

I wonder if Suzanne is putting hundreds of thousands (or $ millions) in escrow to back up her guarantee. If the market continues to go down, she could go bk rather quickly if she tries to fulfill her offer.

Comment by Chip
2007-06-10 09:27:52

Bet she has a valid passport.

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-06-10 06:34:15

Sandy: I want you to kill every gophers on the golf course!
Carl Spackler: Correct me if I’m wrong Sandy, but if I kill all the golfers, they’re gonna lock me up and throw away the key…

http://www.miamiherald.com/569/story/130054.html

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2007-06-10 06:36:12

Here is a interesting thought for today…….When Fidel dies, will his brother or the next leader open up Cuba to trade and to allow all Cubans in Miami to come home without fear of any reprisal, and then ask the US to end the embargo? If so, Then how many more thousands of homes will be on the market?

====================================
“Over the next 18 months about 20,000 new condo units are expected to come onto the market in Miami-Dade County alone, possibly spiking unsold inventory as those units are put back on the market for resale.”

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-06-10 06:59:04

I have worked with the Cubans in Miami on many occasions. I didn’t get any sense that they are going to go flocking back, even if there is a major change in Cuba.

Russia has proven to us that the transition from Communist nation to capitalist nation is a painful one.

Here is my prediction for the transformation of Cuba.

1) Castro meets his maker
2) The people of Cuba cause the government to give in and the system collapses
3) The nation is elated at the change in government
4) The former government and military elements setup a massive criminal network (mafia) that takes over everything. Complete government corruption follows.
5) The people miss the days of Castro and wish they had that age of certainty back. At least they knew who was in charge.
6) Slowly the nation makes its way towards capitalism and democracy with the threat of a military takeover always present. Confiscation of industry and a return to socialism are very real.
7) Life for the average Cuban is no better than it was under Castro but a ruling elite gains almost limitless power & wealth.
8) Cubans continue to flock to Miami to live in Section 8 condos built during the 2003 - 2007 condo building boom.

Did I miss anything?

Comment by pressboardbox
2007-06-10 07:15:53

President Hillary takes over where Castro left off…

 
Comment by SoBay
2007-06-10 07:21:50

1) Castro meets his maker

- That would be Mr. Beelzebub

 
Comment by Graspeer
2007-06-10 07:46:48

I think it will be more like China or Vietnam

The old leader dies, the new leaders make a deal with the multinational corporations. They keep power, and in exchange open up their economy so that cheap goods can be sold in the West at a big markup. The Western governments ignore the dictatorship and political repression because the elite’s in both countries are making big money.

The corporations like communist governments since they get cheap workers because of the failed communist system while at the same time nobody keeps the workers under control like the Workers Party.

 
Comment by Chip
2007-06-10 08:00:34

“Did I miss anything?”

OIL. There is a huge amount of untapped oil under the waters between Florida and Cuba. Our Big Boyz will be cutting deals as fast as they can for leasing what Cuba could argue is its part of the turf.

I had counted on Castro being on the other side of the grass by the end of winter. It’s a shame, IMO, that some apparently capable physicians stepped froward to keep his miserable carcass alive this much longer.

FWIW, the non-Cuban South American business people I know in Miami tell me that the Cuban element has a lock on all business of major importance there.

Comment by spike66
2007-06-10 08:46:04

I sort of like old Fidel…he’s outlasted everybody who ever threatened him…A cuban woman I once worked with told me his family is incredibly long-lived–average close to 100 yrs. old. So the old coot may be good for another 10 years after this tune-up.

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Comment by Daniel
2007-06-10 11:08:19

You neglected to mention that a Rothschild central bank was established in Cuba after Castro’s death.

 
 
Comment by seminole
2007-06-10 07:37:07

very few cubans will leave the u.s., life here is very good and life in cuba will be hard for quite some time to come. i imagine it is more likely they will buy a second-home in cuba.

 
Comment by Blackbox
2007-06-10 10:22:04

Cuba will be the biggest CHA-CHING you ever will see in your lifetime when dirtbag dies, and it opens up.
I’m sure government and military officials are taking (stealing)over huge chunks of property as we speak, and that only covers real estate……………….

 
 
Comment by seminole
2007-06-10 06:42:40

the guaranteed buyback works great if ms. schuster has the funds and willingness to make good on it. this is florida, trying to collect on a judgment is a nightmare. any buyer who puts any real weight on such a guarantee deserves what they get.

Comment by az_lender
2007-06-10 08:23:45

Did you read the whole article? Schuster is promising to put 10% of the purchase price in escrow as good faith money for the buyback. If she defaults on her promise to buy back, the property owner gets to keep the 10%. It seems to me, if her commission is 6%, she is immediately out-of-pocket 4% on each transaction. She is banking on a turnaround in the mkt to allow her to keep the good faith money in the long run. She cannot abscond with anything but losses, it seems. The question is, whether the escrow agent is (for example) her husband …

Comment by seminole
2007-06-10 09:44:47

something smells rotten in denmark, how can she put her whole commission plus 4% more in escrow? what does she live off, how does she pay for expenses?

Comment by monkey_about_town
2007-06-10 13:12:19

She gets to unload her investment properties.

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Comment by aladinsane
2007-06-10 06:50:19

If they lop off another $89,000, I might have an interest in a one bedroom condo.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-06-10 06:50:57

“‘A lot of folks got these interest-only loans as a chance to enter into a home,’ said Realtor Lilly Vining. ‘And then, whammo, their payment rises, and they can’t make that payment.’”

Definition of “whammo”: An occurrence of a rise in the interest rate of a mortgage loan, as initially spelled out by the mortgage contract.

Comment by Graspeer
2007-06-10 07:01:15

“”Definition of “whammo”: An occurrence of a rise in the interest rate of a mortgage loan, as initially spelled out by the mortgage contract. “”

That’s what we need, a law to make mortgage companies put a big WHAMMO in the contract on every clause that could raise interest rates or fees. Or maybe require the Mortgage Company to whack the client over the head with a rubber mallet while explaining that in a year their interest rates will go up. “WHAMMO, your teaser rate will rise to unaffordable levels in one year and you will be foreclosed on, WHAMMO”

Comment by aladinsane
2007-06-10 07:41:08

Anybody up for a round of frisbee golf?

Comment by sm_landlord
2007-06-10 08:34:24

I don’t know about frisbee golf, but it seems the “investors” in FLA have been palying with sharpened lawn darts.

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Comment by AKRon
2007-06-10 20:22:23

“That’s what we need, a law to make mortgage companies put a big WHAMMO in the contract on every clause that could raise interest rates or fees.”

Hmmm. They put graphics such as stop signs next to paragraphs in technical books to signify the critical parts. Perhaps each mention of resets in a mortgage contract should have a little graphic of someone bending over with their pants around their ankles…

 
 
 
Comment by Michelle
2007-06-10 07:11:02

These idiots who are betting the ranch that property tax reform is going to “cure” the Florida real estate market are just as dumb as the flippers who are in foreclosures now..IF they took the time to read the proposals for the tax reform they would see that the tax savings would amount to about 5-9%! Big deal..especially after they gave the ok for the school system(which is exempt from the tax reform) to have a 7.2% increase in its budget which will be passed on the property owners..The combination of high property taxes,high home prices,high insurance and high cost of living is sure to push Florida into a economic recesssion…the mass exodus out of that state continues…look everywhere and the “now hiring” signs are starting to catch up to the “for sale” and “for rent” signs..its a race…

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-06-10 07:16:15

I believe it’s called “faith-based investing”.

 
Comment by francotirador
2007-06-10 07:17:32

Thank you. That’s exactly what I’m thinking. I imagine the knuckleheads that figure property tax reform is going to save them some major bucks are the same idiots who thought that insurance reform was going to be something to talk about. It seems ignorance is quite rampant in these parts.

 
Comment by Mike in Miami
2007-06-10 10:00:34

The tax money they took in during the real estate boom is already spend. Now with peoperty values falling watch millage rates (property tax) increase even further.
Many people in Miami rent. They are particularly hard hit by the tax laws since rental property bears the brunt of tax increases ‘cos it can’t be homesteaded. Of course landlords will pass the increases right along to tenants. Lot’s of low income earners will be forced out of state.
What’s a landlord to do if taxes and insurance combined are about equal to potential rental income? Sell and move to greener pastures.

 
Comment by ACH
2007-06-10 20:41:46

Yep, it’s the same crowd that thinks “cash back” on a credit card purchase is a good deal.
Roidy

 
 
Comment by Orlando Native
2007-06-10 07:11:38

To change the property taxes in FL will require a constitutional amendment. It will be brought up for referendum in Jan 08 along with the presidential primary. And that’s if it passes the FL House and Senate. So if you expect tax relief this year, don’t bet on it. Additionally, to pass as law in Jan 08 Florida Citizens have to vote 60% for it.

Comment by Chip
2007-06-10 08:04:12

And from the ultra-bear corner — if prices just reverted to what they were in 1999 or 2000, most of the problems would go away without any changes being needed, other than to threated with “unelection” those politicians who refuse to roll back expenditures accordingly.

 
Comment by marionsucks
2007-06-10 08:18:35

Tax Relief Saves Day.
NOT.

Even though the Market Here Crashed about a Year ago . Everyone in Marion County Just Got a 25% ( some got 50%) Plus Increase in Property Taxes this Year.

Oh and Impact Fees went up to 10 K and Now they want to raise them to 14K Plus this Year. Up from $2200 in 2005 .

Average wages are down 5% from last Year. ( Real Estate Related?)

Let’s see. A 5% or 10% Decrease in the Property Taxes That Just went up 25 to 50% this Year alone?

Sign me up! I’m going to buy at least a dozen of these Houses in these Empty Developments and Get Rich!

Oh. And while I’m at it , I’ll buy some of these Lot’s that were 1100 Bucks in 03 and are Now appraised by the county at $30,000.

WooooooHoooooooooh . Easy Money Again!

All the Smart Investors. BUY NOW!!!!!! The Next Run is ON! 30% a Year in the Bag Again!!

 
 
Comment by DrSardonicus
2007-06-10 07:17:49

“DiTirro said the rise in foreclosures is due to buyers jumping into interest-only loans, 100 percent loans and adjustable-rate mortgages. ‘These are the people who bought high and had little or no equity in the house,’ he said. ‘I think people got caught in the euphoria.’”

Definition of bubble “euphoria”: Finding out that your $9/hr McRetail job, combined with no savings, no real credit, and a stack of defunct lotto tickets that attest your financial prowesss, has “earned” you a liability that you have no realistic way of ever repaying.

Where’s Ed McMahon when you need him?

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-06-10 07:50:42

“With the housing market stuck in slow motion, more and more condos nearing completion, and many jittery preconstruction buyers wanting out as closing day approaches, Magdiel Guillemi’s betting he’ll be able to buy at steep discounts.”

Er, does it matter whether the motion is forward or reverse?

 
Comment by John Dicht
2007-06-10 07:52:54

Florida is IN a recession right now, IMHO.

Comment by snake charmer
2007-06-10 15:17:55

I agree. There are vacancies in every strip mall, even in nicer areas. Yet we keep building more strip malls.

 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2007-06-10 08:10:15

new two-bedroom and two-bath condos fetching $1,600 to $2,000 per month on annual leases…prices have fallen to the ‘pre-construction prices of 2004. “‘When you consider that a mortgage on that kind of property carries a monthly payment of $3,000 to $5,000 a month plus property taxes and condo fees, there is still some serious hemorrhaging occurring,’”

Wait a minute — pre-construction 2004 prices carry that kind of mortgage plus fees? You are then talking about $5,000 to $6,000 a month just for housing, which is $60,000 to $72,000 per year. Meanwhile, the same units rent for $20,000 to $24,000 per year. That means prices have to drop by 2/3 for rental equivalance!

Comment by Cobradriver
2007-06-10 08:49:03

WT,

Yep,i have been trying to convince people here in my area and Sarasota where i work that this is the case. Nobody is listening.

The parents and i have not touched any new rentals for over 3 years because even with 20% down they will not cash flow positive.

The best part is i am dropping rents to keep renters. This does not effect us much as all our units are paid for but it is KILLING the other rentals in Cape Coral.

How bad was the run up? Average price for our units are roughly 35k. We sold 3 duplexes in June of 05 for approx 150k per UNIT (300k per duplex). Yes it is going to get very ugly before all is said and done here in Florida.

Chris

Comment by Neil
2007-06-10 09:13:31

Folks…

The best part is i am dropping rents to keep renters. This does not effect us much as all our units are paid for but it is KILLING the other rentals in Cape Coral.

Due to the shear quantity of housing coming on line… expect rents to drop 10% to 20% more.

The par value of those condos will be pretty low… there will become a time where its smart enough to buy one on a whim. Few will (too scared)… But that is years away…

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by AKRon
2007-06-10 11:58:55

“…there will become a time where its smart enough to buy one on a whim.”

In the last big Alaskan bust (80s), condos were so cheap that teenagers were getting together and buying them to use a party houses (I kid you not). Ah, those were the days… ;)

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Comment by walt
2007-06-10 08:10:40

Florida has very limited “good paying jobs”, that is why housing was under 100k for so long here.

I am looking to leave Naples, FL at the end of the year. Even though I am renting a 315k condo for 1k a month the only jobs I can find pay $10 an hour! 1K is about the lowest cost rent you will find here. If it weren’t for interest on my investments I’d be under water every month.

Naples, FL is quickly becoming a third world country. Most of the workers here are either hispanic or haitian. Your lucky if you can find anyone who speaks english working in the stores!

I suppose if I wanted to live with five other people in my three bedroom condo I could make it here, but I don’t think so!

Comment by Cobradriver
2007-06-10 08:57:46

Walt,

See my above post…Rents will come down,they are sticky right now because the idiot patrol that purchased at the freaking high point do not have the ability to lower rents. It is going to be awile before all this stuff gets foreclosed and then bought back so people are able to generate a decent return on the investment…

I wish i had a open unit for ya but everything is full right now. The highest rent right now is 700,lowest 575. It just depends how much remodeling has been done on each unit….

Chris

Comment by AKRon
2007-06-10 12:03:55

While studying up on my next home maintence project, I saw a great graphic in the Log Home Maintenance and Construction book- showed how severe damage was to wood in various areas of the country (due to rot, termites, etc.). The area from mid-Texas coast to NC/Virginia border coast, and way inland, was marked as the highest damage area. It included almost all of Georgia, Louisiana and ALL of Florida. I expect those unoccupied/unmaintained houses will be getting really interesting in a year or two. Maybe they can take some of the property taxes and spray the whole state with chlordane. ;)

 
 
 
Comment by FLRenter
2007-06-10 08:16:19

OT, but I heard on NPR Marketplace last week that the S&P 500 finally made it back to where it was at in 2000, when the tech bubble burst. 7 years. People may be more in tune to housing rather than stock indices so this would serve as a sobering reminder of how long it can take for bubble fallout to clear.

Comment by az_lender
2007-06-10 08:28:51

Not to mention NASDAQ, which still needs another 100% rise to get back to its 2000 peak.

Comment by Blackbox
2007-06-10 10:31:12

GO Nasdaq!
Yep, although I’m diversified, I still own a tech mutual fund that tripled since the bottomed, but still underwater…………..
See, bagholders, that is what happens when huge bubble explodes, and it takes decades to get back up to the highs.
DOW and S&P did go up in the boom years, but not even close to the rate the NASDAQ went up. Are you listening San Diego?
Ah, who cares, you’ll be hearing from all of us renters very soon!

 
 
 
Comment by mick
2007-06-10 08:16:38

One thing that is rarely mentioned in the MSM is that the high property taxes only existed because of the high increase in the value of homes. This legislation is an attempt to subsidize the homeowners by allowing them to keep high prices but without the tax rate. Hope the legislation fails

Comment by flatffplan
2007-06-10 08:28:27

GOV always spends all the money-

 
Comment by WT Economist
2007-06-10 08:29:46

I disagee — high property taxes in Florida are the result of rising health care expenditures due to a previously cash cowed and now expensive senior population, combined with the lack of a state income tax, make property taxes low. That and, until recently, rising numbers of school children, and the need for increaed infrastructure. All that costs money.

Rising property values may have encouraged government waste, since no one had to vote for higher taxes. But property values really only apportion taxes rather than set the — the rate can always be adjusted. Spending, and other revenue sources or lack thereof, determine taxes.

In NYC, with state and local income tax revenues rolling in, they want to cut the property tax enough to eliminate any tax increase this year despite rising assessments.

Comment by flatffplan
2007-06-10 08:49:07

always

 
Comment by MyamuhNative
2007-06-10 16:57:25

I have to disagree here.
Certainly there is a health care crisis in So FL,but it is only one of the many needed infrastructure improvements that was conviently forgotten when giving sweetheart deals to the developers.
In a responsible government , infrastructure (roads, schools,water) needs are paid for by developers that are creating the increased need.
In SoFL, many times the developers were given tax breaks and a pat on the back.
Funny how MSM looks the other way about the lack of hospital beds in this area.
I have known of several elderly friends that have waited on a gurney in the hallways of our local hospitals for days at a time waiting for a bed.This despite arrival by ambulance and pre-orders by hospital drs.
It ain’t pretty and it ain’t gonna get better.

 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-06-10 08:46:19

“One thing that is rarely mentioned in the MSM is that the high property taxes only existed because of the high increase in the value of homes…”

Mick, that’s not correct. A FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE government would have reduced the millage rate to keep the total tax bill for each house roughly the same, with only inflation increases added. Even if prices revert back to 1999 levels, I can almost guarantee the county/local govt will RAISE the millage rates to keep the new higher taxes flowing in.

Comment by Paul in Jax
2007-06-10 09:25:25

See this enlightening and somewhat sickening story about the windfall tax collections in the Beaches communities (the only separate cities in Duval County) of Jacksonville and all the whining by the newly-entitled city money-spenders:

http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/060907/nep_175556753.shtml

Here’s an excerpt:

Jacksonville Beach City Manager George Forbes said he has no regrets about not implementing rollbacks. Without the extra revenues from rising property values, the city couldn’t have afforded the oceanfront park at Fifth Avenue South, downtown redevelopment, a new fire station and South Beach Park. [Note: the "oceanfront park" is a parking lot with a grass field where bums hang out and downtown redevelopment means planting some palm trees and replacing pavement with brick - for that quaint look.]

“How do you think we got to where we are today?” he asked.

Forbes said the governor and legislators are trying to appease certain citizens across the state at the expense of city and county services.

“They’re taking everything out on the municipalities,” Forbes said. “They are playing heros at the local government’s expense.”

Nice that the mayor is concerned about the local government, not the local taxpayers.

Comment by Blackbox
2007-06-10 11:16:25

He can’t bite the hand that feeds him……………….Directly!
Who cares about the suckers that pay indirectly. Like taxpayers!

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Comment by Chip
2007-06-10 09:30:56

“A FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE government would have reduced the millage rate to keep the total tax bill for each house roughly the same, with only inflation increases added.”

Exactly.

“Even if prices revert back to 1999 levels, I can almost guarantee the county/local govt will RAISE the millage rates to keep the new higher taxes flowing in.”

The reason I’m leaving.

 
Comment by mick
2007-06-10 14:36:17

A fiscally responsible govt.? Just like the fiscally responsibe investors or the fiscally responsible wall street firms that created CDO’s, or possible the fiscally responsible mortgage brokers. They all saw the golden goose and there were not going to anything other than to fleece it for all that it was worth.
I have no idea what the future tax rates will be, however I would be suprised if they did what you are talking about. I think tax rates will go up a bit but not to maintain the revenue amounts that flowed to local govt.’s in 2005/2006.

 
 
 
Comment by GH
2007-06-10 08:53:55

Sellers really need to understand we’re not in an inflated market and haven’t been

I cannot see the logic in coaching sellers to keep their prices high. Buyers cannot afford current prices, and what is selling is selling at the value point of the current market. The fact is that we are in a very inflated market. Not because I say so, or because Vining says it is not, but because the market fundamentals and basic math of the current market says it is. Prices were driven up by a feeding frienzy of market speculation to a level which could no longer be maintained.

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-06-10 11:02:27

Uh-oh. Looks like the Florida legislature is about to make the property tax disparity between residents and non-residents even worse. A 75% “super exemption?” That should completely close the tap of northerners retiring to Florida.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070610/NEWS/706100393

 
Comment by Jon
2007-06-10 12:01:28

“‘If they cut taxes that will motivate individual buyers,’ said Guillemi. ‘And I want to get in before they do. I don’t want to be left with the crumbs.’”

Classic knife-catcher attitude there–scarcity thinking. Get it now before there’s none left! (losses, that is! :-)

 
Comment by SKB
2007-06-10 16:29:07

Check out the wording of this rental ad it’s hilarious:
Remarks:
“ALSO FOR SALE WITH OPTION - $1000 OF YOUR $1750 GOES TOWARD PURCHASE. BUILD EQUITY WHILE RENTING!! GREAT FOR THOSE WITH REAL ESTATE JITTERS. LOCK IN TODAYS PRICES FOR WHEN THE MARKET REBOUNDS. PARK RIGHT AT YOUR DOOR IN THIS 1ST FLOOR CONDO AND ENJOY YOUR 33 FT. PATIO SURROUNDED BY HEDGE AND GARDENS FOR PRIVACY. VERY SPACIOUS ROOMS WITH LARGE CLOSETS, NEW KITCHEN. BEAUTIFUL COMMUNITY ON WATER, INTRACOASTAL LIVING AT ITS BEST.”

http://tinyurl.com/ypsbop

Comment by Chip
2007-06-10 19:49:17

A friend of mine recently rented an unfurnished, brand-new 2,300 s.f. condo, directly on the Intracoastal, for $1,300/mo. Of course, none of that rent is being applied to his just-for-you purchase-option price.

 
 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-06-11 06:37:46

If $1000 is applied to the principle of an over-inflated house value, then you might as well just rent. Either you’ll be upside down in a few years anyway, or the owner will go into foreclosure and you’ll have no equity.

 
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