Feeling The Slowdown In Oregon
KTVZ reports from Oregon. “You have to go all the way back to 2000 for a May in which fewer Bend homes sold than last month, the surest sign yet that the High Desert is anything but immune from the nation’s real-estate cooldown, and there are new signs prices finally are dropping, to reflect that chill.” The numbers from the Central Oregon MLS are dramatically clear, showing the slowest month of the year, at a time of year when home sales normally start to pick up.”
“There were 120 homes sold in Bend (without large acreage) last month, said Realtor Rob Eggers. That compares to 146 sales in April and 156 in March, and is even slower than the typically frigid winter months, 128 homes sold in Bend in February and 133 in January, he said.”
“Bend’s May home sales figure is the lowest since 2000, when 101 homes sold that month, fairly equally split between west and east. The 2007 number is comparable to the 125 homes sold in May of 2001, a figure that steadily climbed to the super-hot figures of 2005 (256 May home sales) and 2006 (down a bit, to 242).”
“‘One of the most baffling stats from May is that the median sale price for the Westside actually went up roughly 15 percent’ from a year ago, Eggers said.”
“‘There’s definitely some conflicting data in the MLS right now concerning pricing,’ Eggers said, but he agreed with observers who said ‘May prices may have been skewed by 11 $1 million-plus homes closing where on average we have about one to three close per month.’”
“‘Regardless of what the numbers say, prices are dropping,’ the Realtor said. ‘According to our 24-hour market watch on the MLS, yesterday (Tuesday) there were roughly 65 new listings, 25 sale pending, 30 closings and 127 price reductions. Those reductions will ultimately lead to lower prices throughout our market.’”
“‘People are hesitant to buy right now because if they wait a month or two, prices may come down even further. Exactly the opposite of 2005 and 2006, (when) sellers were hesitant to put their home on the market because if they waited a month or so longer to list, they could earn more equity, he said.”
The Bend Bulletin from Oregon. “Last year, the houses that Sun Creek Homes built in its little subdivision in east Bend flew off the market nearly as fast as they went up. Not this year, though.”
“The 14th and last home, finished in the spring, still stands unsold, Meridian Realty owner Natalka Hamilton said Tuesday. Despite a 13.25 percent price reduction. And despite the builder’s offer to pay thousands of dollars in closing costs.”
“Why? Investors who could have easily afforded its $338,000 price tag have long since fled the market, leaving mostly first-time buyers to pick up homes in the region’s lower-end $250,000 to $350,000 price range, Hamilton said.”
“And, with the rug pulled out from under the market’s once plentiful supply of no-money-down, no-documentation loans, fewer first-timers can afford to buy, even if they wanted to.”
“‘You actually have to have 5 percent (down) of your own money right now,’ Hamilton said.”
“In Redmond, the month’s sales plunged to 38, according to the MLS, 61 percent off of the still hot-market sales of May 2006, and also the weakest May in the last five years.”
“Compared with May sales of 2004 through 2006, May 2007 sales also were off in Crook and Jefferson counties.”
“In Bend, sales of homes worth $400,000 or less last month were down 65 percent from May 2006, according to the MLS. Sales in the $400,000 to $750,000 range were down 39.7 percent, while sales in the $750,000 to $1 million range slid 22 percent.”
“Redmond’s generally lower-priced market showed even more weakness compared with May of last year, with sales in the $250,000 to $400,000 range off 71 percent and sales of $250,000 or less off 33.3 percent. Nothing sold for more than $522,000 in Redmond in May.”
“Only 169 building permits were issued throughout the region in May, according to Cascade Central Business Consultants President Don Patton. That’s about on a par with the first five months of this year but 52 percent less than the torrid pace of May 2006 when the market was still booming.”
“Inside the industry, the strains are apparent. Subcontractors are easier to find in nearly all trades this spring than they were last, WoodHill Homes President George Hale said, and their prices are either down or have at least stopped rising.”
“‘It really hits everybody,’ Hale said. ‘Mortgage brokers, Realtors, title companies, anybody who has any kind of piece in the real estate industry is really feeling the slowdown.’”
“Mortgage brokers, in particular, have been whipsawed by fallout from the sudden decay of the subprime lending industry, said Rockland Dunn, last year’s president of the Central Oregon chapter of the Oregon Association of Mortgage Professionals.”
“Several offices around town, including Dunn’s own, have laid off brokers, Dunn said. The rest are waiting to see where things stabilize.”
“‘We rode the wave, and now it’s going to get back to a normal buyers’ market, rather than the artificial one we had created,’ Dunn said.”
“Sam Jauchius moved here a few weeks ago from Sacramento. He’s living in his RV now while his wife tries to sell their old house, which could take awhile. But, even in Sacramento’s slumping market, Jauchius figures he’ll make enough to easily afford a Bend house and everything that goes with it.”
“‘It’s beautiful. So I’m here for the duration,’ Jauchius said.”
“And, with the rug pulled out from under the market’s once plentiful supply of no-money-down, no-documentation loans, fewer first-timers can afford to buy, even if they wanted to.”
“‘You actually have to have 5 percent (down) of your own money right now,’ Hamilton said.”
What an outrage! You mean that I would have to put acutal money down! They are trying to take away the American Dream.
I wonder if anyone in the government has yet questioned the wisdom of eliminating downpayment requirements? Is it really hard to connect the dots between this “initiative” and the subprime foreclosure crisis that is sweeping through minority communties across the U.S.?
American Dream Downpayment Initiative
The American Dream Downpayment Initiative (ADDI) was signed into law on December 16, 2003. The American Dream Downpayment Assistance Act authorizes up to $200 million annually for fiscal years 2004 - 2007. ADDI will provide funds to all fifty states and to local participating jurisdictions that have a population of at least 150,000 or will receive an allocation of at least $50,000 under the ADDI formula. ADDI will be administered as a part of the HOME Investment Partnerships Program, a formula grant program.
Purpose
ADDI aims to increase the homeownership rate, especially among lower income and minority households, and to revitalize and stabilize communities. ADDI will help first-time homebuyers with the biggest hurdle to homeownership: downpayment and closing costs. The program was created to assist low-income first-time homebuyers in purchasing single-family homes by providing funds for downpayment, closing costs, and rehabilitation carried out in conjunction with the assisted home purchase.
http://www.hud.gov/offices/cpd/affordablehousing/programs/home/addi/
GetStucco,
It hurts my brain to read crap like this…I will bite my keyboard on the profanity….
Chris
Watch out, Cobra, this will make you spit venom!
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11043060
“Calhoun, of the Center for Responsible Lending, said the Federal Reserve is the only federal agency with the power to regulate the entire mortgage market. So, a lot of people are watching how the Fed decides to use that authority.”
Excuse me - what????!!! Since when is the Federal Reserve a federal agency, and since when do they have the power to “regulate” anything?
There’s some famous quote - someone help me out here - something to the effect that “Those who give their power to others will gladly have it taken from them”.
Along those lines - there are some here that I’m sure know more than me on the subject but - would it be fair to say that the Center for Responsible Lending is nothing more than an advocacy front group for the central banker community (Rothschilds, Morgans, Rockefellers, etc.)?
Very true. Federal reserve is no more federal than federal express. They do set for a few meetings in DC but are independent from our government. All officials are “not” selected but rubber stamped for approval by our government. Printed money is “big business” and the “good old boys” say how much and when to print.
Sad but 98% of the people have no knowledge of this.
Why is it that I don’t want my tax dollars going for programs like this ADDI? I have heard of people going on these programs who are really investors or they find people who qualify and go in with them on the investment,or they put their kids into the investment home .I also know of someone who doesn’t show how much they make on their taxes so they want to go for one of these programs . Its all BS and its not my idea of how I want my tax dollars used .
I love the irony in these programs. Programs to create “affordable housing” have done exactly the opposite.
Bingo! “Affordability programs” have pushed prices up to a level where fewer than 10% of California households can afford to buy a home.
Just like rent control has done in NYC
The ADD initiative… further instant gratification for the ADD generation.
A friend was just telling me about a couple she knows who recently received one of these $50,000 down-payment programs so they can buy a house. She said the husband is about a year away from finishing dental school and the wife is a big spender always blowing money at the mall and living large. It is too bad these programs can’t differentiate better between people who could really use the hand-up and don’t otherwise have a chance versus soon to be wealthy professionals. They really should take into account the reason they don’t have money is because he is in dental school!
“‘You actually have to have 5 percent (down) of your own money right now,’
I hate government regulation for the most part but I wouldn’t mind seeing a 10% down bill going thru. I know it’s simplistic but we’re dealing with simple people for the most part.
Frankly, I’d be ok with 20% minimum for a while. Shake this thing out.
It will come to that.
Think about it… we’re still in the selling season of 2007.
What do you think will happen come October-February? yep… me too.
And imagine… people now have to be able to afford a home to qualify! Who would have thought…
Got popcorn?
Neil
20% would put the housing market in park…I’d love it.
I believe you mean reverse:)
True. Sales would be in park, prices in reverse.
No government regulation to require downpayments is necessary. Simply eliminate the ADDI, and the lending markets will magically once again require downpayments as a qualification for a mortgage loan. As Ronald Reagan might have said, “Get the gubmint off the people’s backs.”
Does the $200M a year that the ADDI puts into the kitty really do that much? Would that be enough to dry up lending for 0 money down loans?
Sheeple can’t do the math. They think they are pis*ing their money away by paying rent. The only problem for them is that they don’t have ANY downpayment to bring to the table. It made sense to remove that minor impediment during the bubble times.
When you think about it, the elimination of downpayment requirements is a major causal factor in the negative U.S. household savings rate. If downpayment requirements to obtain a mortgage loan come back into fashion, the savings rate will come back to positive in short order.
“‘One of the most baffling stats from May is that the median sale price for the Westside actually went up roughly 15 percent’ from a year ago, Eggers said.”
More proof that no one understands what the median means, not even the so-called pros - wait, my bad to assume realtors understand numbers…
I grew up in Bend and now live in the Willamette Valley of Oregon. This town has changed so much in the last few years. You have 60,000 people who basically don’t do anything to sustain an economy. All you see in Bend now is luxury SUVs roaming the town and all the nice places in downtown have been replaced by luxury spas and designer shoe stores catering to California transplants. This market will crash hard and fast, my mother’s home was valued at $285,000 last year in July…last week she would told she would have a hard time getting $260,000. Every 5th house is for sale in Bend and I do not see any home appreciation in this area for a long time to come now.
Renter (and lovin it) from Corvallis, OR
I think a lot of those Clownifornians sold an overpriced POS, bought a house in Bend for much less, and were living off of the rest of the proceeds. In fact, I think this is going on everywhere. In time, the money will run out, and these types will learn that there are relatively few high paying jobs in these areas. Idiots.
“All you see in Bend now is luxury SUVs roaming the town and all the nice places in downtown have been replaced by luxury spas and designer shoe stores catering to California transplants. ”
Exactly why I didn’t move there despite the charms(and there are many): great scenery, comfortable climate, tons of outdoor recreation, etcc…
Hey, sounds like Ashland. What a joke. We have a very nice breakfast restaurant in town that does not open until 8:00 am. Because, I presume, none of their equity locust customers need to go to work!
Bend, Bozeman, how many of these places are there? Good luck to that guy trying to sell his home in Sacramento. He might well be driving that RV back home in a couple of months.
“‘There’s definitely some conflicting data in the MLS right now concerning pricing,’ Eggers said, but he agreed with observers who said ‘May prices may have been skewed by 11 $1 million-plus homes closing where on average we have about one to three close per month.’”
Love it. On one hand, he touts the 15% increase, then calls it baffling, then cops to the increase in $1MM+ sales.
I think any market that was invaded by CA specuvestors or equity locusts is in for some tough times. If the only people left to buy are the locals, prices will becoming down A LOT. Especially in the entry level, now that voodoo financing is less available.
Pffffttt….obviously you do not know the value of the novelty tourist biz. Between t-shirts and refrigerator magnet sales, I see no problem in them picking up where the out of state investors left off.
“‘There’s definitely some conflicting data in the MLS right now concerning pricing,’ Eggers said, but he agreed with observers who said ‘May prices may have been skewed by 11 $1 million-plus homes closing where on average we have about one to three close per month.’”
I am a little baffled by all of the high end properties which are still selling. Who are these people, and where is the money coming from? Is it liquidity which hasn’t run it’s course?
Tough times? I think it will be sweet as can be when normal Oregonians can afford to live in the nice towns that they created, rather than forfeit them to equity locust who ruined their own state. Also, I suspect the 90% of Californians who cannot afford a home will also welcome a change in the weather. I say bring on the deflation, the great equilizer.
Sounds like the Bend market may be suffering from a shortage of California exiles. Given the big chill that has hit the California market, there is a shortage of Californians who can sell for several hundred thousand dollars more than their loan balances to raise a massive downpayment for a move to Bend. Oregonians may yet rue the day they complained about the invasion of California outmigrants.
“…there is a shortage of Californians who can sell for several hundred thousand dollars more than their loan balances to raise a massive downpayment for a move to Bend.”
Plus the HELOC shortage for “investment” or an eventual retirement house.
There has been “Big Time” speculation in the Bend market for several years now both in residential and commercial…The down side potential in this market is significant IMO…It is like Ashland on steriods….
My family owns a bunch of undeveloped property up there, last I knew cows were grazing on it. Maybe one day I will go up there and build a house on the 80 acres or make a ranch….hmm.
I will not rue the day I complained about Californians. I can’t afford a house here (Portland) becasue of all the California equity locusts. Plus they take a charming neighbothood, and transform it into outdoor shopping malls and chain stores. I hope that the ones in Cali can’t sell, and come up here, and the ones that are already here all get sick of the rain and cold and leave!!!
Ah, spoken like a true Oregonian.
A bumper sticker I see around town that never fails to crack me up says:” Visualize your yuppie a– moving back to California”
*coffee spit*
Classic!
Nice!
Crashwatcher, I hope you will be able to soon. By the way, Newberg is a nice town, and prices out that way are coming down.
All of the western states that have received significant inflows of Californians in the past will be affected as Bend has been. The combination of sinking prices in CA, loan balances greater than the market value of individuals’ homes, and foreclosures means that Californians who exit the state will likely have little to no equity to bid up home prices in other states.
The difference between this bust in CA and the post-Cold war downturn is that massive pile of spec homes, which will drive prices down far further than in the 90’s…
“Oregonians may yet rue the day they complained about the invasion of California outmigrants.”
I won’t be one of them. Oregon needs to stand on its own and develop an industry other than serving sushi to deep pocketed Californians.
Logging. IT was developed then taken away by the environmental movement….. how bout an insustry we can keep.
I was so flustered by your comment that I flew off the handle…. Logging was an industry that fed many mills, but as the environmentalists movement basically eliminated the logging of BLM lands, the gubmint gave money in the form of a “safety net” for the lack of available lands to engage in the industry that built the west. So, now the money has run out, and guess what, OREGON STILL CANT LOG BLM LANDS…. lands that are fire prone, selective thinning helps in the reduction of fire dangers….guess the spotted owls have to burn, and what about water….cant build damns to export renewable power……harsh for nemo’s…..
So whats a State to do, I guess we could sell more coffee, and make better meth……keep sleeping in Seatle.
What are you talking about? What’s to be flustered about in my comment? It’s not even a bash on Californians, if that’s how you read it.
The point is, there isn’t a true industry up here other than some residual logging, Intel, OHSU, and some Linux developers. And yet houses sell for 7-8x median income. People move here with no job for the “lifestyle” whatever that means.
Some of that has, specifically, been driven by people with more means coming here with no job, but a bunch of money.
It’s not sustainable as a long term plan for Oregon. We need to actually develop new industry here instead of relying on service and selling each other houses. Oregon has stated they want to be on the front end of biotech and alternative energy. Duh, what state hasn’t said that? And most said it 3 years ago.
I’m not in Seattle, I’m in Portland. I made no comment suggesting I support all the enviro regs up here, although those appear to be the words you’ve put in my mouth. I think we are agreeing on this but you appear a little paranoid.
What are you so mad at?
my taxes going up on my house as a direct result of less timber harvest, despite what others on the blog may say. As the federal money runs out the tab goes to somebody, and that somebody is the homeowner through higher taxes. No offense, and I do understand the need for a more diversified economic base…..its just really exacerbating as the clock ticks on the Safety net funds. And I hear the taxman slobering at my new assessed value and rate.
Logging IS back to a large extent. There are some problems, though - one, we’re competing with the Southeast, where timber is grown in rows like corn, and mechanically harvested. Engineered wood is the new thing; the head of G-P used to say “Fiber Farming” was the future. Oregon timber grows on mountainsides. It is great wood, but it doesn’t grow fast. Next, automation has wiped out many jobs. Third, we don’t do much of this any more, but one hell of a lot of logs were exported, rather than being milled into lumber here in Oregon. Finally, logging does pay well - but it is the most dangerous industry around, and without the glamour of Discovery Channel’s Bering Sea crab fishing show. Tillamook Forest is now being harvested, having mainly burned from the 1930s on. But there is a lot more to the story than “enviros want us all to live in the dark.”
RE: engineered wood
I agree. I do automation projects with a few manufacturers in the NW and that’s where all their efforts are going.
They can’t make any margin on 2×4s anymore. With the engineered stuff, they can also make beams of any size.
Nice post MacAttack,
Down here in Jackson County, our libraries are closed. The citizens refused a levy to fund them twice. Yes, environmentalists played a role in limiting timber harvest, but the market forces you mentioned did too. Also the rabid anti-tax proclivities of rural Oregon are to blame in part. We have just about the poorest (funded) educational system in the western US. All the finger-pointing doesn’t help. We need a better economy, that includes modest logging approaches, and we need to all pay the freight. Otherwise, Oregon will continue to bring up the rear.
First of all while logging is not as active (expecially on Federal Land) as it has been in the past, it is starting to pick up. I work for the BLM and we have more than doubled our cut in the last 3 years (I know it’s only up to 15 MMBF in my resource area, but it is an improvement) with the expectation that we will be cutting significantly more soon, expecally after we come out with our new management plan next year. Also the Forest Service has advertised about 30 new jobs in the last few months becasue of a mandate to harvest significantly more timber.
Also Private Industry is cutting up a storm. Eveywhere we are planning a future sales has clearcuts all over the place. And the State is increasing their harvest as well.
Part of the problem though is that Douglas-fir does take longer to grow than pine in a southern plantation, (even though we do have soem of the best timber growing country in the world) and there is a lot of competition globally as well such as New Zealand, Brazil, and China, most of which have a lot less regualtions than we do.
Another problem is that Douglas-fir is mostly used for building materials such as 2×4’s and plywood. As the housing market crashes, there will be significantly less demand for timber. This is already starting to be seen as the pond value for timber is going down.
Amen Brother!
I grew up in Bend and am disgusted at what has happened to that town. My brothers and I would all move back to Bend to be around our parents and childhood friends however there are no decent paying jobs except in cyclical construction or owning a business. The jobs up on the Mountain and around tourism pay squat. In Bend there are two distinct classes ownership, I grew up on the wrong side of the fence for that, and working class $5-$10 an hour. I moved on looking for greener pastures I paid for my way through school and moved on. To me Californians drove me out of my home, priced me out of the opportunity to build a business in my home town and made it to where I may never get to move home. Californian equity locust have drove real-estate through the rough both commercial and residential, destroyed a number of my childhood favorite lakes and trails, and priced me out of being around my family. Wonder why there is bitterness in most of the natives?
I completely understand. I grew up in the Bay Area, and easterners did the same to me. Fortunately, California’s state university system is inexpensive, so I could pay for my education by working for UPS at night. I would never move to Bend personally unless I were retired, and wealthy. And even then, yes, it’s beautiful, but summers are very short.
I think you’ve stated things well.
I avoid Bend and Ashland like the plague now. 6 years ago I loved both areas. I was in Bend 6 months ago helping a friend move and I made a point to look at license plates. I kid you not, every 5th license plate was from CA.
I don’t remember seeing so many luxury cars either. I’m in favor of some development to “revitalize” an area, but these areas are turning into Aspen where the only industry is low wagers serving food to the well-to-do. Blech!
This crap has happened all over. The scourge has even ruined CA. I mean, I grew up in Reno, NV with Lake Tahoe and Truckee at my back door. I hadn’t been to Truckee since before the boom, and when I went back this past winter, I about vomited. All the old quaint restaurants, bars, and shops were gone, replaced by real estate offices, mortgage brokerages, and title companies. The place was crawling with SUV’s and yuppies. Gone was the charm, and the old timers who made the town what it was. After an hour of overexposure to Hummers, fake breasts and bleach blonde hair, I blew out of there, disgusted. It was truly revolting. My old friend Truckee was gone.
add colorado to the list
And Montana…
I’m just fine with flat “growth” here in Oregon, thank you very much. Too many South Californians have moved in, with their SUVs, tax cuts, and demands for self-serve gasoline. But then, I moved here from North California (that other state just north of, say, Cambria/Fresno) so who am I to complain?
keep dreamin about flat growth, how many more like yourself desire the “less is more” life? Anecdotal evidence….most of my school chums hate the urban LA/SD life……but when you are married to the money its hard if not impossible to leave it.
That’s why I live close to the ground. But I’m glad those folks are in LA/SD and not here. My Dad taught me that when we went camping in the mountains, we were to leave the place as we found it, for others to enjoy. Why not the same thing outside the mountains?
“Oregonians may yet rue the day they complained about the invasion of California outmigrants.”
Have to disagree Stucco. It will never happen. Oregonians have resented Californians for decades for one reason. By sheer numbers, and equity wealth, they have been able to buy up the best real estate in Oregon, while the locals have had to stand by and watch or get in over their heads. They feel about Californians the way Vermonters feel about New Yorkers and Bostonians and the Irish felt about the English ascendancy. Californians with huge houses, huge cars, designer clothes, and smug politics, and semi-retired lifestyles are not well-liked by anyone except realtors. That said, Oregon is a state of immigrants, so those who come in with less of a splash eventually assimilate.
mid may was 799,000
6/10/06 was 836,471
6/14/06 was 840,935
6/17/06 was 846,120
6/20/06 was 850,317
6/22/06 was 855,892
6/24/06 was 860,647
6/29/06 was 866,037
7/01/06 was 858,675
7/09/06 was 870,854
7/11/06 was 882,239
7/13/06 was 886,055
7/14/06 was 890,896
7/18/06 was 895,022
7/21/06 was 900,000
7/25/06 was 905,170
7/28/06 was 910,001
8/01/06 was 903,718
8/12/06 was 915,336
8/19/06 was 920,755
8/26/06 was 925,176
8/29/06 was 951,242
9/15/06 was 955,352
12/1/06 was 925,170
12/2/06 was 915,258
1/01/07 was 857,760
1/20/07 was 900,302
2/14/07 was 932,055
4/21/07 was 1,148,456
4/27/07 was 1,171,189
5/11/07 was 1,192,290
5/18/07 was 1,202,413
5/25/07 was 1,238,121
6/14/07 today 1,256,361 active homes national wide
http://www.ziprealty.com/maps/index.jsp?usage=search&cKey=74rbwvlk
These numbers while going up could be caused by adding states, accounting errors, sloppy input and do not include FSBO. So they mean nothing except 1.2 million homes for sale is a lot of for sale signs.
[snark]
A graph of those numbers clearly signals that the market has reached its trough and will head back up from here.
[/snark]
1.2m is a severe undercount by any stretch, given frequent media references to 2.2m vacant homes in the U.S.
GetStucco,
Understatement of the year :). FYI just on my street/neighborhood in my tiny corner of Florida, FSBO’s have taken over. I’m guessing 50% of all houses for sale as a rough estimate. I wonder how they will all end up figuring into this trainwreck ???
Many of the FSBOs I’ve seen sign on with realtors when the public resists buying their overpriced property. I don’t think FSBOs understand the concept of pricing according to recent comps.
And contrary to the FSBO’s threats that “the price will increase when I list with agent”…invariably the price decreases to a more realistic level.
Oh they understand, but it’s just that their house is special…
“And contrary to the FSBO’s threats that “the price will increase when I list with agent”…invariably the price decreases to a more realistic level.”
You know, I’ve seen this countless times on craigslist. I am always tempted to write them back to let them know that they don’t dictate the price of their home, the buyer does. And since when is it a good idea to use threats as a sales tactic?
They will become foreclosures likely in 2008 and some hanging on into 2009. A few may sell or hold on depending on the quality and ability and the desire of the owner to keep it.
1.2m FOR SALE — this says nothing of empty, “investor” properties not actively listed.
Though this is a housing blog, I would like to know the apartment vacancy rate. Does anyone have access to that information?
Ashter,
O.K.,this is where it gets a little involved. Right now our occupancy is 100%. But the caveat is all of the familys units are paid for so we have the crazy ability to drop rents to keep renters. The idiots who bought for 100k per unit are hosed in Florida. They are negative right now with no ability to reduce. I have seen with my own eyes on a street with rentals in Cape Coral, 50% vacancy with no reductions in rent.
In my opinion rentals are in the same boat as SFR’s…Overpriced and owners are bleeding money. I have no plans to look for more rentals for at least a year unless a screaming deal pops up(i doubt it)…Think its ugly now ?? Wait till the commercial RE starts to unwind. Yes,we are cash heavy right now…
Chris
On the subject of rentals….I’m looking for a lil help. I rent from a property manager for 800 a month…on the website I see similar units in the same complex now being offered for 750 a month. my lease is up in Sept….What is the best way about trying to get a lower rent….Just talk to the property manager a month before the lease is up and try to get my place lowered…or ask about moving to one of these lower price places..I guess I’m just looking for ideas i may not of thought of on getting a cheaper rent….any ideas?
thanks
tell him exactly what you just told us and ask for a reduction NOW… don’t wait.
You say that you see similar units for $50 less/month. Is there anything about your unit that justifies it being $50/more per month? (anything about the apt. itself, not any improvements you may have made)
If not, ask to renegotiate your lease at the lower rate. If you’ve been a good tenant and prompt with payment, there’s no good reason they should refuse you.
I used to have rental units and it was always to my advantage to work with a good tenant.
nearly 102,000 of those are in metro chicago
You forgot the huge numbers of condos that only list one of each model if they list at all. I am guessing that you need to multiply by at least 1.0025 to accomodate for that.
that’s a good point. I see 200 unit buildings listing only 7 units. One listing for each floor plan they have.
Does any Oregonian know if that amazing (to my mind at least) condo development in Prineville is going ahead?
Ben posted about it a while back, and some local backed up my disbelief.
If it has a waterpark in it, supposedly it will. But 90% of the stuff that supposedly will be built actually WILL be… in the next one hundred years.
“In Bend, sales of homes worth $400,000 or less last month were down 65 percent from May 2006, according to the MLS. Sales in the $400,000 to $750,000 range were down 39.7 percent, while sales in the $750,000 to $1 million range slid 22 percent.”
I think this pretty much sums things up for what the market’s doing right now here in Ashland as well. I had expected May of this year to be a turning point here for a long time, but I’m actually surprised at how decisive the change has been.
I’ve seen several $500,000 reductions on houses in the $2+ million range, and am starting to see some 20% reductions in the lower ranges. We still have about 25% on average to go here before things make sense, but at least the momentum is in the right direction.
Ashland Renter:
Whoo hooo! I’ll see you above the boulevard next year!
Lets see HOW LONG this Zero Down “Ownership Society” and the shifty leveraged RE “Enterpreneur” Gang can TREAD WATER now that the Greed Barge has HIT the WALL of Sharp Frozen ICE:)
isn’t BEND a nirvanna ?
no jobs needed
the second home market is going to tank
it’s like a pet rock or beenie baby
you sound dumb if you own one
We live just outside of Bend. Were going to buy a lot in Prineville in spring of ‘06. Then found this blog and got some sound advice from our financial planner. Long story short…we would have overpaid 20K for lots that still haven’t sold to this day. Me not have goldrush mentality anymore…fully cured.
Hammers have fallen silent in Prineville. That condo deal ain’t happening…Along with many other plans on paper.
The writing on this board is GOOD today. So far, we read of the Greed Barge and hammers falling silent. What’s next? Poetry?
Hey Slim..Can we help it if RE has finally become recognized as a Classic Disaster in Motion
Here ya go Arizona Slim…
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a mortgage-
With no escape from reality-
Open your eyes
Check out Kevin’s site and see-
I’m just a poor boy, I need no sympathy-
Because I’m easy come,easy go,
Rates are high, turnover low,
Anyway the wind blows, doesn’t really matter to me,
To me
Mama, just bought a home,
Got an ARM with nothing down,
For a McMansion out of town,
Mama, life had just begun,
But now I’ve gone and thrown it all away-
Greenspan ooo,
Didn’t mean to make me cry-
When he said ARMs were just the way to fly-
Carry on, carry on, as if nothing really matters-
how do you “lay off” an IC ?
“Several offices around town, including Dunn’s own, have laid off brokers, Dunn said. The rest are waiting to see where things stabilize.”
Sell his desk to raise cash.
Thanks for the update on Bend, Ben. I’m always curious to know what’s happening up there. Came very close to buying awhile back but changed my mind. I often have mixed feelings about it because its an incredibly beautiful small city and has great weather but it’s growing way too fast and the small town charm is dissipating rapidly.
“its an incredibly beautiful small city and has great weather but it’s growing way too fast and the small town charm is dissipating rapidly.”
This is happening all over the country, it’s like cancer spreading and rotting out formerly decent places. Everywhere, it seems.
I read a quote once from the author/naturalist Edward Abbey who was asked about the overdevelopment of America’s beautiful places and he said ” I thought about but it hurt too much, so I stopped thinking about it.” Probably good advice.
hee may have said that, but he was a strong advocate of action (of the monkeywrench type, if necessary)
Has Moab joined the list of small towns swallowed by residential growth?
Moab has an almost 0 rental rate right now, and inexpensive houses no longer exist. Moab’s in the process of planning/building more gated communities on land that should be national parks, it’s so unique (e.g., Johnson’s Up On Top and Kairn Ridge). Moab has sold out to the greedhead developers, and I mean these guys are real SOBs (one was trapping dogs to keep hikers off a historic trail that cut near his land). I left Moab in feb and it broke my heart in some ways, but I was glad in others. Total sellout place. Worse than Colorado (my favorite rant, as you know). If you’re injtereswted, read “Moab, Morphing at the Speed of Greed” by Jim Stiles (U. of AZ Press).
Moab has an almost 0 rental rate right now, and inexpensive houses no longer exist. Moab’s in the process of planning/building more gated communities on land that should be national parks, it’s so unique (e.g., Johnson’s Up On Top and Kairn Ridge). Moab has sold out to the greedhead developers, and I mean these guys are real SOBs (one was trapping dogs to keep hikers off a historic trail that cut near his land). I left Moab in feb and it broke my heart in some ways, but I was glad in others. Total sellout place. Worse than Colorado (my favorite rant, as you know). If you’re interested, read “Moab, Morphing at the Speed of Greed” by Jim Stiles (U. of AZ Press).
whoops - sorry for the double post, I try to correct my sticky keyboard typoes and then resend it before the first edition catches and end up sending twice, prob. only worth reading once, if that - LOL
I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, but Jeez, is there a anyplace that hasn’t been touched by the housing phenomenon? Sorry you had to bail out on your hometown.
I’m from Colorado, but I love Moab (lived there 7 years). As for the housing phenom, greed knows no bounds, as they say.
roger that SS, I fell under the spell of Bend but was thankfully pulled to the “un-cool” affordability of Roseburg… landing a great job with a long standing family business was also a big plus.
Oregon’s Measure 37 (repeal of land use laws) will ensure that there is no shortage of house lots for the foreseeable future anywhere in the state. While parts of it are headed for repeal, it appears, the zoning for the old-timers is rolled back to the 1960s. AND they get to keep the property-tax deferrals they got all those years when zoning was restrictive.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Maybe that is why corn futures are so high! Thought it might be the ethanol thing but it is really the potential home buyers loading up for the big fall!
He’s living in his RV now while his wife tries to sell their old house, which could take awhile…“‘It’s beautiful. So I’m here for the duration,’ Jauchius said.”
He may be living in that RV for the duration of his life.
Lol. I spent some time up there myself though and it is somewhat of an intoxicating place. Many people move there without jobs looking to make a go of it. If you have an established income source and can work from home it’s possible, otherwise I think it’s rough sledding for most folks.
Exactly why I moved to Portland (or Seattle) - I can continue my career, buy an affordable house, and spend the weekend in Bend if I choose to.
I would not consider either of those cities “affordable”.
I’d agree, particularly Seattle. But when I moved to Portland (in 1994) from Santa Cruz, we could rent our 1200 SF house for $800 or buy it for $105K. The house I did buy in late 94, for $125K, I sold for $155K in 2000, and similar ones are running $275K now. But I don’t think they are selling at that price. Portland condos and houses in the city, well, yeah, that’s worse. And Seattle has far more economic opportunity, so it’s priced accordingly.
Man this frys my cookie!!!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17953080/
I was smart enough not to step into the bile pile of crap before me yet these civil rights leaders want hug and craddle all these FB’s!! Makes me sick. I’m moving to Tasmania!
Lenders, they said, should help homeowners affected by the problems in the high-risk mortgage market by allowing them to refinance their mortgages into conventional 30-year mortgages with a fixed interest rate.
This is ok by me. But MANY (most?) won’t be able to afford it. Then, it’s foreclosure time. Oh well!
And as for a 6 month moratorium, forget it. Refinance as soon as you’re close to trouble - or move along.
The more meddling by government, the worse things will get. Lenders will stop doing deals if it is not profitable. The best solution is to let people take losses (lenders and borrowers). This is not the end of the world.
“We know that there are safe and affordable loans that meet the needs of our communities,” said Janet Murguia, president of the National Council of La Raza, the nation’s largest Hispanic civil rights group. “We are calling on them to match families to the sustainable loans that they should have gotten in the first place…There are homes of families that can be salvaged.”
What’re ya gonna do about it, Janet? Send Sur 13 to Wall Street and Washington? Oh, wait, I got it, maybe they should have nationwide demonstrations in all the major cities for mortgage amnesty, just like did for the illegal shamnesty.
palm -
Lou Dobbs had a pretty interesting exchange with Janet herself on his show last eve. Did you happen to see?
No, I didn’t, philly. Do tell. I’ll have to see if I can find a transcript on line.
I just checked CNN’s site, no transcript yet. I can’t search YouTube cause I’m at work. Access denied, etc.
I don’t do YouTube, so I’ll have to wait for a transcript. I tried looking and like you said, none yet.
Hey Janet,
Why don’t you talk to the nice folks at Bear Stearns…I bet they’d be happy to help you out.
And if that doesn’t work, consider a less expensive alternative. I understand POS sfrs are dirt cheap in Mexico.
Judging by this article Massachusetts has a bubble.
I thought Massachusetts was different.
BEND wow they have 2007 Craftsman homes
gnarly
The Property Auctioneers , like the Pros
from Hudson and Marshall, Texas, are all busy zooming around from Detroit, MI to Victorville, CA .
http://www.hudsonandmarshall.com/calendar.asp
I think they’ll need a Faster Plane
I bought a home in d.r. hortons new subdivision in spring of ‘06 in Albany, Or at the end of the seller market…..now horton’s got 15-20 new houses left to sell in the subd……3 have been on the market for at least 1 yr
sounds like you timed it just right.
They are building again in Newberg by the golf course, but now starting in the $360s, down from the $430s last year. They start about 10 at a time, with room to build at least another 150-200.
Check out the Portland Housing Bubble Blog for more information about this stuff.
slowly but surely the portland housing bubble will take effect. sadly, by the time the housing bubble hits Portland Oregon with it’s full force it will be too late for most of the folks who bought too high, not only will their housing prices drop, but they will be upside down in their mortgage and will aslo have a job loss. I’d say Portland, OR is 15 months away from the housing bubble bursting. New construction in Vancouver, WA is already tanking and there are tons of houses for rent on craigslist compared to a year ago. rents in portland are also dropping. the job market in Portland is not the greatest so when real estate starts to tank it is going to be a very large retirement/vacation/slacker center of the world