The Bottom Is Unknown In California
The Sacramento Bee reports from California. “Capital-area home sales…remained well below last year. Across much of the region median prices continue their 12-month trend of year-over-year declines. TrendGraphix reported 14,704 existing homes for sale at May’s end. That’s 678 more houses for sale than in April.”
The Modesto Bee. “For the more than 500 people who attended the Valley Real Estate and Economics Conference in Modesto…the hot topic was the depressed real estate market. Stephen Endsley, the longtime real estate investor who organized the conference, gave the most gloomy forecast: Housing prices will continue to fall 5 percent to 10 percent per year for the next five years.”
“‘It took us five years to get into this housing bubble, and it probably will take us five years to get out,’ said Endsley.”
“In Stanislaus County, only 3,700 homes are expected to sell in 2007, which is about half as many as sold in 2004 or 2005, according to Craig Lewis, president of Prudential California Realty.”
“Lewis said median home prices have fallen from $414,000 in 2005 to $359,000 now, and it takes nearly three months to sell the typical home. ‘First-time home buyers have the ability to buy now, but…they’re sitting back and waiting because they think the price will go down more,’ Lewis said.”
The La Times. “Build them and the buyers will come. That’s how developer Shone Wang has been selling homes in Southern California for the last 15 years. But this spring, Wang hit a snag: no takers for a cluster of luxury homes he built in Rancho Cucamonga.”
“‘The first day my homes went on sale I decided I had to do something else,’ Wang said.”
“His solution is an auction, set for Saturday, at which bidders have to agree to pay at least $700,000 for homes originally priced at $1.2 million.”
The Daily News. “When Ron and Diane Golden decided to sell their four-bedroom home in Granada Hills, they spruced up the landscaping, shampooed the rugs and painted it inside and out.”
“But 22 months later and $224,00 cheaper, their home is still on the market because buyers have asked for a new roof, granite countertops or new gates for the pool. The home, now listed for $749,000 by Coldwell Banker, has fallen out of escrow six times.”
“‘They make demands, huge demands,’ Diane Golden said. ‘A buyer wants everything replaced, brand-new.’”
The Daily Bulletin. “In May, the Southern California housing market continued tripping, stumbling and falling, and things should get worse before they get better. That’s the word from those who follow interest rates.”
“Regional economist John Husing of Redlands said the increase in long-term rates is ‘very scary,’ and that the 10-year rate, on which mortgage lending is based, is at its highest in five years.”
“‘I have been saying it would be the first quarter of 2008 before the market would stabilize,’ Husing said. ‘Now for the first time, I think it depends on what happens with long-term rates.’”
The Orange County Register. “A total of 2,675 homes closed escrow in May, DataQuick reported. That’s the smallest number of May sales in the 20 years that DataQuick has been tracking the local housing market. Sales fell nearly 29 percent from a year ago and were down almost by half from May 2005.”
“‘It’s the slowest spring that I can remember,’ said Patrick Veling, president of Real Data Strategies of Brea. ‘(Home shoppers) seem to be convinced that the bottom is unknown. They really have no idea what the value of a home is right now.’”
The Voice of San Diego. “That May Gray that hung over San Diego’s coastline last month also extended to the county’s housing market, as the region’s lowest sales of any May in 12 years clouded over the market’s chances for a quick recovery, according to numbers released by DataQuick.”
“Andrew LePage, DataQuick analyst, said lower-priced neighborhoods saw the most significant drops in sales throughout the six Southern California counties DataQuick analyzed in its report.”
“Fewer homes selling in the lower price ranges means the median price edges higher. But that doesn’t mean the prices on individual homes are rising. ‘The trend’s definitely down, the question is, would it be down even more if more of the lower-priced homes were selling?’ LePage said.”
“‘What you can sell your house for two years ago versus today is probably about 15 to 20 percent lower,’ said local analyst Peter Dennehy. ‘The median is an extremely misleading way of looking at prices, because we all know that the market is now pretty disparate.’”
“‘In a hot market, all homes are created equal,’ agreed local Realtor Bob Casagrand. ‘In a cold market, all homes are not created equal. In a cold market, the distance between the good stuff and the not-so-good stuff widens substantially.’”
The Press Enterprise. “Inland home sales maintained their months-long sluggish pace in May, as Southern California experienced its slowest May housing market in 12 years.”
“DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said that the Inland area is experiencing what San Diego saw through much of 2006, after its prices peaked in November 2005. ‘We’re just astonished that it didn’t happen earlier,’ Karevoll said of the Inland slowdown.”
The Bakersfield Californian. “David Crisp, who made headlines with his extravagance during the housing boom, shrugged off another financial blow this week.”
“The Internal Revenue Service slapped him and his wife with a $111,170 lien in back taxes and penalties, according to public records. The back taxes stem from 2005, when the local real estate market experienced a frenzy of home sales and price appreciation.”
“The escalating size of his debt has yet to worry Crisp, who said that the rising total means little for someone accustomed to dealing with million dollar sums. ‘How many times has Donald Trump filed bankruptcy?’ Crisp asked.”
“He quickly added that bankruptcy filings are not in his plans. His debts will be paid off, one by one, he said. ‘I’m self-employed,’ Crisp said. ‘I can’t make it go any faster.’”
‘Riverside County Code Enforcement officers are cracking down on illegal dumping. Their forces have doubled over the past year. The officers say more garbage is coming from the increasing amount of desert home foreclosures.’
‘The yard is overrun with weeds, and the lanterns on the front porch are caked in rust. The paint is peeling, the plaster is exposed, and a dead opossum reportedly lingered for several weeks. Can this house really belong to the mayor of Newport Beach?’
‘When he bought the house in March 2004, he expected to flip it, but later considered remodeling it as a rental property. He then pondered rebuilding the home and moving in himself, but now has hired a contractor who, perhaps in the next three or four months, will have it ready to rent.’
ROTFLMAO with that one
Can this house really belong to the mayor of Newport Beach?’
Thankfully, it is only water all over my laptop. That is worthy of being the title of a weekend topic discussing flippers.
Got popcorn? Now available in the “Mayor size tub”
Neil
I think Mayor McCheese owns it now.
Too bad Newport Beach can’t afford a Mayer who works full time. What a joke. Every government official in any Socal city is in the flipping business. No wonder they aided and abetter every half backed development plan and lifted or ignored every restriction. Flipper Nation! Starting with the local government. No conflicts of interest there.
Good point Suzanne. Someone should see who the seller was and if he is connected to government approvals in some way. I ran into a flipper who bought 7 “owner occupied” homes in 7 different counties, so the lender would have a harder time catching her. I only saw it because she is NOD on two homes in different counties, which I thought odd, so I ran her name thru an ownership data base. Sure enough, she and her friends have been selling houses back and forth to each other. The IRS will send them some nice 1099’s now. The last one out pays the taxes. The probably did not count on that.
‘The yard is overrun with weeds, and the lanterns on the front porch are caked in rust. The paint is peeling, the plaster is exposed, and a dead opossum reportedly lingered for several weeks. Can this house really belong to the mayor of Newport Beach?’
There is the first of many stories to come about rapidly depreciating values of vacant homes. This is a natural consequence of having 2.2m+ vacant homes in the U.S. whose owners would sooner allow them to crumble to the ground than to price them at levels where they will sell in current market conditions.
GS,
You and I both know these fools can’t price to sell. How in the world are any of these people gonna payoff on 700K when the house sells for 500K. Yeah, like there gonna bring 200K to the table to get rid of the albatross. Ain’t gonna happen for a few more months, at least!
Meant to say….
500K? Yeah, like they’re
Note to self, go home and rest.
cool that you can post at work…our cyberspace Nazis would report us and we would get spanked….if not written up if we repeatedly did so.
If they have good credit, won’t their bank possibly allow them to repay the remaining $200k over the original mortgage period even if the underlying asset has been sold?
That is 2.2million X $250K median price = $550 billion of capital tied up in a rapidly depreciating and completely useless asset.
Not lookin pretty….
Good point, PDX. I will bet though, that much of that inventory is in higher priced areas. California has a median in the $400,000s, so bump that up a bit.
I looked at a REO yesterday that was in such condition. Curb appeal was excellent. The rear view is all the way down a long fairway. End of good news. The interior would require a complete rehab and the bank has not reckoned with that, yet. Fortunately that is no problem, as we’re just in the later part of Stage 1 of the housing price collapse.
Fortunately that is no problem, as we’re just in the later part of Stage 1 of the housing price collapse.
That’s true, chip, but I’m tired of watching this train wreck approaching. Everybody is still acting like any crappy house is worth “at least” 700K. I get listings all the time from a realtor, and in Culver City a 1,100 sqft house is still “worth” close to 800K. It’s unbelieavable.
Cass - Please hold in there. I expect a 40% drop from these levels, but it will take years. It will not happen overnight or in a short period like 3 yrs.
“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”
Jesse Livermore
yeah I’m with you, cassiopeia. I’m ready to dance on the weed-choked lawns of FBs and REO properties as they take it in the a** on their way to BK.
Slow motion meltdown is not the immediate gratification of, say, HELOCing your home and buying a plasma and a new car
I can’t wait till the blood is running in the streets and people are wailing and gnashing their teeth.
But at least I’m not bitter.
Casey is the mayor of Newport Beach? whodathunkit?
Ben-
Shame on you, you didn’t quote the most important part of that article:
Los Angeles homes are overvalued by 52.1percent, according to a report released today by the forecaster Global Insight and the bank National City Corporation on the first quarter of 2007.
With that being said how does one feel comfortable making an offer and feeling he got a deal at 10 or 20% OFF. What’s really puzzling about this is that the L.A. Times didn’t have this on the front page. This article should have gotten far more press.
Mgt. rates at 6.74%…a move in the right direction.
U.S. mortgage rates jumped this week as a sell-off in the Treasury market pushed benchmark interest rates up sharply. Freddie Mac in its weekly survey Thursday said the national average on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 6.74%, up from 6.53% a week ago and the highest level since July 2006.
“Mortgage rates moved sharply upward this week, with rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages jumping more than 20 basis points, the largest upward movement in over three years,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/rate-30-year-fixed-mortgage-jumps/story.aspx?guid=%7B18E633FF%2DD828%2D43EA%2DA2F9%2DA23B8E0106D1%7D
hey does 50% overvalued mean 1 mill home ’should be’ 500k or 750k?
i cant figger it out…thnkx
My interpretation: 50% overvalued means the $1m price tag is 50% too high, or 1.5 X V, where V = fair market value.
1.5 V = $1m, so
V = $1m/1.5 = $667K.
GS, you are correct. A 50% discount would be $500,000 and it is not the same thing. Another interesting point is that a 100% appreciation rate ($100,000 to $200,000) only needs a 50% drop ($200,000 to $100,000) to equal out.
that makes sense, thanks man!
although that seems low….100% overvalued would mean prices should be cut in half right. yep thats my prediction/wish.
GetStucco, I”m with HelloKitty in wishing for even more. After all, dreaming is free and you pay no interest. However, the 50% calculation seems reasonable to me. In 1997, a nice house in Westwood (Los Angeles) went for around 600K. A 50% drop would bring prices down to 1997 plus some inflation. I can live with that.
If you pencil that out on the property thats in the article you’ll find that your monthly carrying costs and renting that same property would be within $500 - $1000.00 dollars. There assumptions are amazingly accurate.
Someone has to get the ball rolling. In a year the’ll be saying “We may be drowning but at least were not as bad off as those who bought at the top”
The LA Times is far too beholden to real estate advertisers to run that on the front page. But I’ve noticed lately that they will put quotes about the enormity of the housing bubble on the front page of latimes.com, teasing to a real estate blog. Their gutless “journalism” is beyond belief.
At this point, one should note that the new “owner” of the LATimes is none other than Sam Zell, who just made a killing on his sale of Equity Office Properties to the Blackstone Group.
“When you have a big business, there’s always things, sometimes, that falls through the cracks”
BAHAHHAHAHAHHA
Like profit. Sometimes that just falls thru the cracks.
His creditors are gonna be packin’ his crack real soon, and when they’re done, Bubba in Cell-Block H will have his turn.
“His creditors are gonna be packin’ his crack real soon”
Oh, ROTFLMAO, can’t…breathe…LMAO…gasp…need air…ROTFLMAO…tears…gasp…
You guys kill me! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
“…there’s always things, sometimes, that falls through the cracks”
Like English grammar, for instance?
he’s quoting one of the biggest scammers of all time…
Scamming and proper English don’t mix.
When I was in Bakersfield two weekends ago I was talking with my BIL about Crisp’s situation and laughing said ‘that SOB is going to loose his ass’; my BIL replied that he is a friend of his and that Cole is the one who was doing illegal activities and that Crisp will come out just fine. The saga continues.
“The escalating size of his debt has yet to worry Crisp, who said that the rising total means little for someone accustomed to dealing with million dollar sums.”
LMFAO!!
Wow, this Crisp character seems to be crashing and burning in full view of the nation. Sounds like the typical dreamer: ignore the expenses as long as there’s something big in the works to make it all right in the end.
In a few months we should have the full details of his income and expenses from his bankruptcy proceeding. I wonder who is going to buy his home with the full basketball court in Bakersfield. This guy is going out Hammer style!
Hammer had some talent, this guy flipped homes in a hot market and though the boom happened because of him.
Gotta give him some credit. He saw a gold mine and got his shovel out. That’s more than I did over the last 5 years and I’ll bet he took more pleasant vacations than me too. And even if he does file a chapter-one-three what diff will it make when this time next year comes around? He’ll simply be just another face in line at the food bank.
Umm… must politely disagree. Doing “nothing” (which has been redefined today by flipper parasites as “an honest day’s work at your reviled ‘W-2′ job to put food on the table”) would be *infinitely better* than the damage to affordability caused by arrogant asshats like David Crisp.
Perhaps you should just start taking more vacations.
I doubt Crisp will want to go into BK so early. I believe IRS debts have to be “seasoned” or three years before you can discharge them in BK. If Crisp has $11,000,000 in foreclosures, and there was “over-financing” (aka mortgage fraud) he will may be paying taxes on the gain from the fraud as ordinary income, then paying taxes on the 1099’s from the banks that take the losses! His tax bill could be in the millions. OUCH
I was under the impression that Bk does not eliminate IRS debt. Just eliminated collecting on the debt.
Hoz,
Personal income taxes over 3 years old can be discharged in BK.
“The escalating size of his debt has yet to worry Crisp, who said that the rising total means little for someone accustomed to dealing with million dollar sums. ‘How many times has Donald Trump filed bankruptcy?’ Crisp asked.”
That Dave is a real trooper. He is battling delusions.
Comparing oneself to Donald Trump says it all. It’s like saying you’re as good of a football player as OJ Simpson was in his day.
“ignore the expenses as long as there’s something big in the works to make it all right in the end.”
I’m reminded of an I Love Lucy episode where her and Ethel decide to sell home made mayonaise. They’re losing a nickle on each jar, but will make it up in volume.
Some people expressed wonder yesterday if prices were really falling. Sacramento is. A new 3900 SF house sold in 2005 for $685,000. 80/20 100% financing. Foreclosed by HSBC in mid 2006. Sold again in May 2007. Price? $525,000 with 80/15 95% financing. 23% reduction. I wonder who the new lender is….oh, Coldwell Banker Residential. That makes perfect sense.
Wells Fargo recently foreclosed on a new 3500SF house sold in 2006 for $659,000 with 80% financing ($530,000). First payment default. Listed for $559,000 and it has been sitting. Now asking $519,000. I predict it will drop to the mid $400,000 range.
Prices falling in DC too, Noticed a small but nice house for rent on Capitol Hill. Zillowed it bought for $380K in 2005. The exact house next door sold in Jan 2007 for $341K. These are in a good neighboor. They’er just very tiny rowhouses, maybe 12 feetwide by 40 deep.
A bank-owned property went on the market in Anaheim, Ca today. Ziprealty says the last purchase price on 03/06/06 was $580,000 (maybe when the bank took it back?). Anyway, the listing price right off the bat today is $465,000 for nice, pretty 20% drop. This makes it one of the cheapest 3 bedrooms in the area, without any of the ususal price lowering I’ve been seeing. I love the ruthlessness of “the bank.”
I am very pleased.
Probably worth no more than $300k, half the price at the peak.
Update on the $519,000 Wells Fargo house from 3 PM. That price was 3 hours ago. Just notice the new listing price is $495,000. A drop of 5% in 45 days and an overall drop of 24.9% from the date the FB bought it from the home builder a year ago. Reality is setting in with the banks. Some poor knife catcher will buy it pretty soon, not knowing banks own 7 more houses on that street, of which only 3 have been listed. There are 6 more NODs in the same subdivision within the last 60 days.
I wonder when capitulation will come and there will be true auctions (no reserves, no shill bidding). There is a Shill Auction (seller can bid against buyers up to an undisclosed reserve price) next weekend in Sacramento. USHomeAuction.com. I think it will be too late for a these guys to run a Shill Auction. Too many foreclosures coming on the market too quickly.
“‘They make demands, huge demands,’ Diane Golden said. ‘A buyer wants everything replaced, brand-new.’”
Dang those builders!!
“We do not have to visit a madhouse to find disordered minds; our planet is the mental institution of the universe.”
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
This is the funniest quote I’ve seen. Thanks.
Goethe - hmm, let’s see, wasn’t he a famous German composer?? The one who set the words to opera about being able to do what you want to do and the whole universe chips in??? He the man?
“composer”
Poet.
Yeah, only one of the greatest ever. Man, has nobody heard of Wikipedia?
Forget Wikipedia….geez…has no one heard of “Faust”?
No education these days.
Not here on this blog! We have some high wattage bulbs!
Here is the listing they can’t sell:
http://tinyurl.com/yujzmo
Everything new may be over the top, but newer than 1985 (the year they bought it) would be kind of nice.
There’s a great discussion of this going on at la.curbed:
http://la.curbed.com/archives/2007/06/the_home_they_c.php
My favorite quote so far is that no amount of shampooing will get the turquoise out of the carpet.
I think I know that house. Backyard party years ago. Dang that house is nice, but only if listed at 375K.
At the last party that went on at that house you’d have to drop your car keys in the bowl on the way in.
That house needs to be majorly staged.
That quote is hysterical, but my favorite quote is the following:
They bought it for $200,000 in 1985. So they aren’t exactly hurting.
Uh, yeah, if they had taken the $200k and put it into Altria common stock (then Phillip Morris), that $200k would be worth $4.0 million right now, and that doesn’t include dividends.
LOL… maybe I’ll have to go find and post the listing for the DC area house with the bright pink carpet and plastic animals in the front yard.
Hey, I resemble that! We have a couple of pink flamingoes in the front yard to commemorate or three years in Florida.
Grrr, “our” not “or.”
folks, this is a historic day. the war on sellers is started to be waged. although the sellers may still be overpaying with 23% off, they’re doing it for us. they are giving us comps.
thank you buyers.
” although the sellers”
I meant buyers.
“‘It took us five years to get into this housing bubble, and it probably will take us five years to get out,’ said Endsley.”
Wow. Someone actually said the market won’t rebound by this summer, or this Fall, or Superbowl 2008. Finally.
This should hammer the market even further. Once people understand that prices are down and will STAY down for a while, there’s really no need to get excited about buying now and saving 10% off peak.
No quick rebound brings houses back to what they used to be. A place to call your own. A place to enjoy. A tax write off. Not a get-rich-quick scheme.
Yea, I think that is a really good point. I think we saw what is referred to as a suckers rally in some areas of So Cal earlier in the Spring that has played out. The reality of this market is getting too obvious to spin. It will be interesting to see the numbers into the summer months. This is looking like a one two punch of a buyers strike (those that can afford) and tighter lending standards / higher interest rates pushing people out of the market. There is absolutely nothing positive about California RE right now.
“…or Superbowl 2008.”
Superbowl 2012, anybody? We ought to start a poll…
I predict the housing market will NEVER recover… It’s a long slide down from here…
Well, it probably won’t ever recover enough to meet the expectations of an awful lot of people - that’s for sure.
“Never” in real terms is a distinct possibility. Tulips never recovered in real terms. Another possibility is that housing, in real terms (i.e., adjusted for the prices of food, energy, labor, etc.) will experience some future “bubble” during the adulthood of our great-grandchildren. Probably not sooner.
So Ms. Golden doesn’t like the “huge demands” being made, eh?
Obviously she was never asked to write an ode to the backyard squirrels.
Clearly the market peak, “If you want to buy my house, Feed my squirrels”.
San Francisco, what happened?
“If you want me to buy your house, first eat some of them squirrels.”
with thier huge holding fees (debt), I think they already ate the squirrels.
They must be gluing the tails of the “sacrificed” to the local rats at this point.
“everything is good. nothing has changed” as they lay down to go to sleep at night……………
Hey, hey, GS, no need for the innocent animals to suffer!
Ms. Golden can suck on it. Sorry lady, but asking 3/4 of a million for some crappy tract home is what I would call a huge demand. These people crack me up, surprised and angered when they begin to realize their stucco box isn’t worth half of what they paid. Sounds like they need to lop off at least another $250K.
Yeah, last night I was watching that TV show “Buy Me.” Just another show about people trying to sell their house. This couple and their 3 kids lived in a house not any more impressive than any other house on their block. It certainly wasn’t worth the $500k they were asking for it (others in the area were selling for less). And the husband was mad at his RE agent because the house wasn’t selling. But what gets me is that they couldn’t even be bothered to do what the RE agent asked them to do to make the house “presentable”. They refused to clean most of the house, they refused to do very obvious repairs (like ceiling tiles in the basement falling down or completely missing. At one point, they showed the man up there with a staple gun trying to set some of the tiles back in place!) And they wouldn’t even let people come by to view it most of the time. It had to be around their schedules and their kids sleep schedules. Very limited for showing. I’m guessing they really couldn’t have been that motivated. But yeah, throughout the episode the man just kept getting more and more angry and yelling at the RE agent.
Their original plan was to sell the house then buy a new one, but when that wasn’t working, the genius decided that it would probably work out better if they bought the new house FIRST and then that would dictate what they absolutely HAD to sell the old house for! Was good stuff. LOL
OH, and the reason they were in that mess in the first place is because the husband bought the house while his wife was laying in bed pregnant with their 3rd child! She didn’t even see it or know he was going to do it.
I’m guessing he’s having a big guilt trip going on and taking it out on the agent.
I’m loving that show. Did you see the one of the townhouse with the cracked foundation owned by the Hare krishna couple. Being spiritual didn’t keep them from being greedheads. Started with an insane wishing price, the hubby blew off the realtor’s pricing efforts, the wife a nonentity, and months went by with no offers. Husband decided that it would all work perfectly when it was meant to…at their wishing price. 6 months later…still unsold, and they bought a condo. I think this Buy Me show is to entertain renters.
Yes, that guy was classic.
The first falling out of escrow is the hardest.
And they have fallen out of escrow 6 times!! Six!! Get a clue lady, unless you have owned that place for 20 years, you are f’d!! This thing is only starting to crash.
They bought in ‘85 for 200k. They just don’t want to give it away.
Can’t find loan info to see if they’re serial re-financers though. Here’s the address for anyone who may have better sources than I…
11311 Zelzah Avenue, 91344
they refi’d at $322K in ‘03 and opened a 30K HELOC in ‘04.
Ok so $352K owed….and they want what????? $749K……
UH DUH DIANE you just gave away $224K by being so thick headed….
And they have fallen out of escrow 6 times!! Six!!
Members of the slow learners club.
munch munch munch.
Falling out of escrow six times?!?
The schadenfreude meter is pegged.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Squirrel is the new kobe beef.
Thank you txchick. I now have pasta all over my monitor. Ewwwww.
The six degrees of Escrowation
What a Great name for a song! A Great tear jerker for the times. Maybe Willie Nelson or Merle Haggard would be interested in that one.
Here about squirrels:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070614/od_nm/germany_squirrel_dc;_ylt=AmZXloQc1vh3ehVfXiVWUZIDW7oF
Actually, I love animals, BUT, just yesterday I caught the second squirrel in my life. Just too much, coming every morning to my walnut tree and waking me up in my RENTED guesthouse. I just relocated it closer to the beach (Venice). Everyone wants prime location, right? I have a trap and I have found that cake with walnuts is the best bait. They used to be cute. Actually, they are still cute to me, but I know that they are RATS with fluffy tails. Is this weird or what? Maybe I got too much time on my hands. But they eat everything, figs, oranges, walnuts, bulbs, strawberries and beyond….
Cheers,
Geo
Much to my mom’s dismay, my grandpa used to catch squirrels and serve them for dinner during the Great Depression years.
There is this book, King Rat or something like that. I read in my own language. People actually sell rats for small dear meat. I think this country has seen some difficult times, followed by some golden and great decades, when people were honest, had morals and values, and worked hard and actually were much happier. Another depression or some kind of hard economical time will actually bring many people closer together and closer to what is important in life and untimately, but not before learning everything the hard way. Why can’t we just be smart and learn from others mistakes??? Why do we all need to go through it? It is really a tremendous backstep for humanity. For one thing, very few people spend their lifetime and professions building upon what their forefathers left them. I guess wishful thinking. We have got a bunch of sober people here, which is refreshing. So, Cheers again!
Hi, GEOSLAV. Great comments. And welcome to the blog.
“For one thing, very few people spend their lifetime and professions building upon what their forefathers left them.”
Very true. Of course, we’ve had some difficulty here with people among us who can’t stand the thought that we might actually build on what our forefathers left us, so they are constantly tearing it down, poisoning our young, sapping our strength, all in the name of an almost worthless dollar. Have you seen some of the houses in the US lately?
GEOSLAV - The “King Rat” to which you’re referring was a great ’60’s POW movie (Southeast Asia) by the same name. “King Rat” was actually Corporal King, played by George Segal, and indeed one of his money-making schemes was to sell cooked rats as deer meat, but only to officers. One of the most memorable scenes was when a pet dog had to be killed (because he ‘murdered’ one of the few live chickens), and Corporal King and a few select friends are shown stewing, then eating the dog.
King Rat was originally a book by James Clavell. Was excellent when I read it 20 years ago.
GS, not out of necessity, but for pleasure my family has squirrel (as well as raccoon, possum, the occasional bear and deer) several times each year.
Tastes like chicken!
Seriously, what does that taste like?
“I have a trap and I have found that cake with walnuts is the best bait.”
Be careful. You might come out one morning and find you have trapped a couple FBs. They can be very dangerous when they are this hungry. If the FB is wearing a gold blazer, call 9-1-1 and get the hell away from the house.
Home Front: Sellers can be choosers
Friday, June 17, 2005
By Amir Efrati, The Wall Street Journal
Within a month of putting her two-bedroom house in San Francisco on the market recently, homeowner Linda Gao had five offers, each one above her asking price of $699,000. So before accepting the most-attractive bid, she threw in an extra condition: If you want to buy my house, you have to feed the squirrels.
Two weeks later, she and the buyer hammered out a contract that included feeding the backyard wildlife, which Ms. Gao has done three times a week for the past two years. “I don’t think it matters if it’s a buyer’s market or a seller’s market,” Ms. Gao says. “Anyone with a good heart would feed them.”
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05168/523385.stm
Thanks for digging that up, John Law. Just noticed that we’ll be celebrating our two-year “feeding squirrels” anniversary in a couple of days.
Cheers to all who’ve been here since those days!
Oh, not to leave anyone out…cheers to all who’ve come aboard the HBB since then.
It’s just that during the early days, it was really, really tough being a bear. Many of us only had each other (sniff, sniff…) to rant with. Nobody in the “real world” wanted to hear about housing bubbles…and that’s what we’ve all been obsessed with!
test
“The escalating size of his debt has yet to worry Crisp, who said that the rising total means little for someone accustomed to dealing with million dollar sums. ‘How many times has Donald Trump filed bankruptcy?’ Crisp asked.”
Meet another Crisp, Quentin…
“Whenever we confront an unbridled desire we are surely in the presence of a tragedy-in-the-making.”
“His solution is an auction, set for Saturday, at which bidders have to agree to pay at least $700,000 for homes originally priced at $1.2 million”
if sold at minimum bid prices that would be 40% off, not bad considering we are in the supposedly busy season, do I smell panic in the air.
at which bidders have to agree
And what if they don’t???
Yeah, I was thinking 700k still sounds pretty damned steep for Rancho Cucamonga… that’s a long, slow, miserable drive in on the 10 folks…
And an even longer, slower, and more miserable drive on the 210 west in the mornings.
my comments are not showing up
yes they are!
MMG yes they are….yes they are
sorry
I couldnt see them. LOL
Use smaller words, maybe they will appear.
LOL
don’t you mean use bigger words? LOL
I thing domi wants them to get through that tiny little fiber optic cable, hence smaller words….
While we’re on this sort of subject, can anyone tell me what is going on when sometimes the comments in the blog appear to be all jumbled up, date-time line appearing as if over-printed on by-line, stuff like that. Do these things happen to everyone? and is it one’s own machine that is causing the problem? thx 4 any info
AZ, It happens to me periodically. Right click to get a dialog box, then left click on “refresh” and it will all line up in the proper order at the same point in the thread.
I have those too. It’s just the way the browser renders the page sometimes, don’t know why exactly. A refresh always helps.
There’s no such thing has “small words”…only “small writers”!
“While we’re on this sort of subject, can anyone tell me what is going on when sometimes the comments in the blog appear to be all jumbled up, date-time line appearing as if over-printed on by-line, stuff like that.”
Thank goodness it isn’t just me seeing that. Thought I had been hit on the head one too many times while in the mines…
“The escalating size of his debt has yet to worry Crisp, who said that the rising total means little for someone accustomed to dealing with million dollar sums. ‘How many times has Donald Trump filed bankruptcy?’ Crisp asked.”
LOL. You know you’re in serious doo-doo when the only way to make your OWN looming bankruptcy look small is to compare it to the Donald’s previous BKs.
“He quickly added that bankruptcy filings are not in his plans. His debts will be paid off, one by one, he said. ‘I’m self-employed,’ Crisp said. ‘I can’t make it go any faster.’”
Love that, he brings up the Donald’s BK reference himself, then immediately back-pedals. Whether or not a BK is in his “plans”, one is definitely in his “future”.
I almost feel guilty saying this, but….watching Crisp go down in flames is goiong to be fun!! When his proposal for luxury condo towers at CSU Bakersfield hit the news, that is when I knew he was a mentally ill fraudster. It’s comical!
I believe Dave Crisp is a Crispy Critter and wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he and the gang took the trusty old 42 footer fishing and disappeared in Monterey… MEXICO
Does this Crisp moron realize that Trump’s old man has $3 billion? That is one big safety net. That is the net that has kept Trump out of the pen. I doubt this Crisp loser will be so lucky.
I remember his dad showed up in the Taj down in AC. Threw down a million on roulette to bail Donnie out on a bond payment. Trump went through a bankruptcy reorganization.
Self made billionarie is easy if your starting with such a huge amount of money… gambled in real estate and casinos in the last two bubbles. Disapeared for a while and now will disapear again.
“His solution is an auction, set for Saturday, at which bidders have to agree to pay at least $700,000 for homes originally priced at $1.2 million”
700K for a 1.2m, thats a 40% cut, not bad.
Interesting.
Wow, Sacramento County lists 121 NOTs for today. That is almost 1% of the total active listings for sale in the county. Get ready for an increase in inventory in August. Oh and the same list shows 107 NODs. So get ready for even more inventory increases next February.
The Placer County list shows 34 NOTs. That is over 1% of their active listings. It is getting a bit bubbly in the north.
His solution is an auction, set for Saturday, at which bidders have to agree to pay at least $700,000 for homes originally priced at $1.2 million
700K for a 1.2m, thats a 40% cut, not bad.
Interesting.
Were I come from they call it Moon prices. Place a tag with an astronomical price for a few days or weeks, then offer it with a “huge discount”. btw it’s illegal there.
700K for a 1.2m, thats a 40% cut, not bad.
Interesting.
of course the 1.2 million was the original asking price, didn’t sound like any actually sold at that price. so 1.2 was probably 20% above what had actually sold 6-9 months earlier.
yes you triple the price THEN sell at 40% discount to lure the last chumps in town.
“‘It’s the slowest spring that I can remember,’ said Patrick Veling, president of Real Data Strategies of Brea. ‘(Home shoppers) seem to be convinced that the bottom is unknown. They really have no idea what the value of a home is right now.’”
This is a typical problem in markets where demand (the bid distribution) gaps down so quickly that supply (the asked distribution) is left hanging in mid-air. In situations where transactions volume is steadily eroding (as in 35 straight months of falling YOY sales through May 2007 in the SD housing market), would-be buyers have little information on which to base their assessments of market value, other than the highly-questionable opinions of realtors.
This kind of gap between bid and asked price hit the U.S. stock market on Black Monday (October 19, 1987), when the market dropped 20% in one day. Luckily there were electronic circuit breakers and a flood of liquidity from the Fed, which stemmed the panic selling before it got out of hand.
Unfortunately, there are no electronic circuit breakers for real estate, and the rising l-t Treasury yields suggest that demand is waning into the bust. For the same percent of income spent on housing, a 75bps increase in interest rates might knock 15%-20% off a household’s purchase budget (depending on the terms of the mortgage and the interest rate before the bond market crash).
Finally, I don’t believe the drop off in sales has much if anything to do with what home shoppers think about the value of a home; it has much more to do with what sellers think their homes are worth, based on demand conditions before a subprime implosion, tightening lending standards and rising interest rates. There just aren’t many qualified buyers out there who are able to afford 2005 prices.
Yep! I think we are starting to see the REAL slide here. I like your point about “would-be buyers have little information on which to base their assessments of market value”. I have been following this thing for a few years now. At this point I don’t see anything truly preventing a free fall.
LA_Renter,
It could be a free fall… I predict sales will get really slow.
The ABX index is falling on its face at “A” and below. Only AA and AAA are holding up. If that is my only competition… I’m happy.
But it will be slow…
Got popcorn?
Neil
I agree. A long, slow death is what I'm predicting.‘It’s the slowest spring that I can remember,’ said Patrick Veling, president of Real Data Strategies of Brea.
Isn’t this Pat Veling, the same clown who was constantly crowing about RE never going down on Lansner’s blog???
yup, same arrogant a**, here’s one of his typical responses:
We seem to be in a similar position to that which we saw last year at this time….more sellers than buyers at the moment, and sellers who will eventually take their homes off the market instead of reduce their prices. Look for continued appreciation in the realm of 8% to 11% this year.
I analyze MLS data for a living, in more than 220 MLS systems throughout the US and Canada. We are experts on the supply and demand equation. The ONLY number that matters is the current inventory in weeks or months or years or whatever.
Consider that in the early 1990s, when we first created our inventory analysis methodology, the OC resale inventory topped at a staggering 19.2 MONTHS! Currently, inventories are up across all markets and price ranges, by about 30%. The current OC resale inventory is at 17.8 weeks of supply. Inventory for $1 Million or more asking prices is at 24.4 weeks. Inventory for $750K to $999K is at 20.2 weeks. Inventory below $750K is at a meager 12.6 weeks.
So…where is the meltdown? The numbers speak for themselves, and all the bubble and crash hyperbole are simple and misguided conjecture. you guys sound like UCLA….if you predict somehting long enough, it will eventually come true.
I seem to be one of the few willing to post my name and credentials here. How about you, “Anonymous”, whose thought process seems more vacant than the houses he or she counts here.
Posted by: Pat Veling at March 14, 2006 10:07 AM
Wow, that was only 14 months ago. Pat, how many months of inventory are you counting now, since that is the ONLY thing that matters!!! Perhaps you should have counted: affordability, income, supply, vacant supply, interest rates, fraud sub prime lending, etc, because all those things ONLY affect months of inventory. Idiot.
I think that everyone should take these guys (Veling, Lereah, etc.) to task constantly. Post their idiotic predictions everywhere to show what fools they are. If these people lost their businesses because everyone saw what shills they have been, they would stop mouthing off like experts.
By the way, here is his business -
http://www.realdatastrategies.com/about.asp
crispy where are you?
vacation I hope
Good point. It is always a bit worrisome when regular posters stop posting.
I am here. LOL
I have 4 posts that have not gone through. UGH!
I’m still concerned that I haven’t seen Paladin post in some time. Anyone know if he’s okay?
Paladin had to take a break, he posted one day that his father said he was too intense and too involved, or something to that order.
About 3 weeks ago, Palidin posted that people were sending him e-mails, asking if we was O.K. He replied he was fine. He said that part one of his “agenda”, to end the foolish sub prime lending was accomplished with the market meltdown. Now he is focusing on mortgage fraud and working “behind the scenes” to get important tasks completed. He said he is keeping a journal and will post some fascinating stuff sometime in 2008. My guess is the authorities have finally realized his value and are harnessing his energy and knowledge to make some big inroads into the fraud mess and have asked him to maintain a low profile.
Hopefully, like I did recently, he’s on vacation.
I’m shocked he could ignore a HBB post on Crisp…
Got popcorn?
Neil
Most of the Caliofrnia housing talk is about San Diego or Sacramento or the central valley. What’s going on in the SF Bay Area? I rent in Milpitas and we’ve been toying with the idea of buying a house here (median in Santa Clara county is over 750K). Lot of people around here say that the bay area is immune to a bubble and prices here will not go down. So I come to this blog but I don’t see much commentary about my area here. Any advice?
check out calculated risk - the site has a post about SF today
The Bay Area is like LA, it will take more time but it will go down. It won’t go down as much as the Central Valley % wise of course.
Lot of people around here say that the bay area is immune to a bubble and prices here will not go down
Same here in LA. We’ll see…
when did those areas achieve “immunity” status? 1996 for LA and 2002 for the Bay Area?
LOL… Was on another blog full o’ Bears the other day. Someone said LA was immune because it was now a “world” city, like NYC, London, Tokyo.
I pointed out that,though it’s recovered a bit,Tokyo RE lost 80% of it’s value from their RE peak.
They didn’t reply…
You may want to take a peek at patrick.net and the links section for SF Bay area blogs. http://patrick.net/housing/blogs.html
Bay_area_Renter,
I will soon be moving back to the bay area. What’s your estimate of the delta between the wishing rents on Craigslist ads and the real market rents, for 2 or 3 bdrm apt or SFR? TIA.
I don’t know where you are planning to move. Here in south bay area, if you want to find a decent place to rent, check the listings frequently and jump on it before anyone else does. Good credit history definitely helps and diligently agree to all the conditions the owner stipulates. Luckily there is no bidding for rents yet and first come first serve is still working. Good Luck.
PDXRenter,
Cupertino_Rent makes some good points. But that generally applies to area with very good schools like Cupertino or Mission district of Fremont. Infact I was looking to rent a place in Mission and found a SFR on craigslist. The owner had an open house on Saturday and when we got there there were like 5 families with their tiny tots running around looking at the house. The house was in pretty bad condition and yet a lot of people wanted to rent. We got out of there.
If schools are not a consideration then you may bargain the rent down. We rent a brand new condo in Milpitas (2 bed, 2.5 bath with a 2 car garage) for $1850. The craigslist ad the owner put was for $2000.
I rent in the Bay Area and I’m waiting. I see more houses in the market now and they are not selling. I also see interest rates going up which means prices must be driven down because of our loss of purchasing power. I was keeping track on a few houses that I almost bought but decided to just wait. They are still in the market and they lowered the price by 10%.
If I bought now and put down a reasonable down, I may lose that down with falling prices. To me that hurts.
I’m in Sonoma county. Of the 9 bay area counties, only a couple of them had an official fall in median price over the last year (April to April) - one of them was Sonoma county.
However, some friends are out house hunting in the Santa Rosa / Sebastopol area. They’re looking for a reasonable size house (3/2) on a bit of land (semi-rural), $700K price range. They’ve seen dozens of houses, very few they are interested in. They’ve bid on a few houses. The one house they really liked — in good shape, great location and met their needs — they were out-bid on. So there seems to be price support for good properties. Tract houses, not so much.
They make demands, huge demands,’ Diane Golden said. ‘A buyer wants everything replaced, brand-new.
Diane, the days of a $999,000 California fixer and any bonehead with a pile of stupid and fist of HELOC/toxic loan $$$$’s is over. And don’t forget to serve cupcakes and barbequed squirrels at your next open house. And I want to see a new roof, jacuzzi tub, hot tub already installed, and an ATM machine installed under the kitchen sink before I will make a lowball offer. Got it? Good!!!.
One of your neighbors in Castaic can help you make some delicious cupcakes. She’s a pro.
No more of this “Seller will entertain offers on the range from $1m to the outer reaches of the ionosphere” BS, either…
OT but I HAD to tell someone; Bankrate.com Interest Rate Roundup is quoting 6.84% for a 30 year fixed with a quarter point. heeeheee!
“‘In a hot market, all homes are created equal,’ agreed local Realtor Bob Casagrand. ‘In a cold market, all homes are not created equal. In a cold market, the distance between the good stuff and the not-so-good stuff widens substantially.’”
This is the effect the unraveling of the conundrum will have on all asset classes formerly valued as frothy. Suddenly risk and quality considerations come to the fore when the liquidity spiggot slows to a trickle.
In other words: “When I’m really drunk all women look beautiful. When I sober up, some of them look pretty fugly.”
Exactimento, amigo.
And some of the women have adam’s apples.
I actually read some quotes from a real estate conference by industry pros who believe that Phoenix will become a distribution hub, because they are running out of land in the Inland Empire. Commercial property prices will rise because they are running out of land in Metro Phoenix as well.
Perhaps they meant land connected to water.
One thing is for certain: Industry pros haven’t run out of BS yet.
Yes, there’s a 36 month overhang.
land connected to water as in land with waterlines?
WT,
Don’t know what they mean about running out of land in Phoenix. Things might have slowed down in construction but they’re still building a lot of commercial/industrial/retail properties all around town.
Water is available and I had a water well drilling company exec tell me that the water table in town is as high as it’s ever been (right).
Another thing to consider is that Phoenix actually has a lot of agricultural land surrounding it because you can grow crops almost all year round. If you take that land and build an industrial park, the end result is you end up saving a lot of water.
I think Phoenix is going to continue to grow, with snowbirds coming from the Midwest, western states, Florida, and a whole bunch of normal folks coming from CA.
Normal folks from CA??? LOL. Stop it, you’re killin’ me.
“DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said that the Inland area is experiencing what San Diego saw through much of 2006, after its prices peaked in November 2005. ‘We’re just astonished that it didn’t happen earlier,’ Karevoll said of the Inland slowdown.”
Karevoll’s comment reaffirm that housing crashes are agonizingly slow.
How long Karevoll been EXPECTING the IE prices to peak and decline? I don’t remember him predicting or pointing out the peak in IE is past.
What a crook.
His past predictions are updated daily to reflect current developments.
Karevoll, who studies data on the mix of home sales and loan-to-value ratios with an eye toward pinpointing a turn in the market, said all signs point toward stability in the near future.
“The way it looks now, we’re in for this soft landing, rather than the bubble bursting,” he said.
SF Chronicle
Wednesday, July 20, 2005
Sorry, bad source to cite! What a dork.
He’ll still be looking for a soft landing and telling us how he predicted it all come 2010.
Even Mozilo was a better prognosticator than that.
“I’ve never seen a soft-landing in 53 years, so we have a ways to go before this levels out,” Countrywide Chief Executive Officer Angelo Mozilo said on a Tuesday conference call. “I have to prepare the company for the worst that can happen.”
Was mozilo talking about 53 years or the 53 M in salary he got in 2005? just curious
NBC Nightly News just had a report on grow houses in Diamond Bar?, California. Really nice houses, too. Manicured lawns, upscale, etc. Apparently, they tap directly into the power lines, stealing the electricity for the sophisticated marijuana growing operations. Hydroponics and everything.
LMAO! I guess that’s one way to make an “investment” house cashflow positive.
That’s what you call “Creative Lighting” ha ha
Hi, mikey! While I was watching the segment, I couldn’t help thinking about the “staging” possibilities for a seller trying to flip a grow house. Gives new meaning to the tired old realtor headline “Room To Grow”. Think of the possibilities! The potential buyer and seller could discuss capacity, lighting fixtures, water saving devices, etc.
That would be a “green-friendly home”
At least now we know what would-be sellers are smoking.
Good ones, Shaun and Ashland!
I didn’t think of that “going green” aspect. Why should they bust these houses? First of all, they’re well kept. Secondly, they’re growing stuff to make up for all the flora the developers trashed. Finally, the neighbors said things were nice and quiet at the grow houses.
I’m being sarcastic, though. I have major issues with habitual drunks, druggies and their dealers/enablers. Anyone who has ever had to deal with a substance abusing or addict family member, or who has ever lived in close proximity to a druggie or drinker, knows what I’m talking about.
Your judgements have little relevance. The free market sweeps all that kind of junk aside where ever it is allowed to function, even partially. The result of the drug war, your drug war you judgemental little man, is higher availability, potency, and lower prices than ever before in history. The product coming out of these grow homes is now America’s #1 cash crop. Ironically, I think if you gave them a serious listening you would enjoy Bongzilla. Trust me, even totally sober there is zero chance that you would like me in any context, period.
“your drug war you judgemental little man”,
I don’t believe in any “drug war”. Waste of time, money and resources. However, druggies, drinkers and dealers ought to be isolated from the rest of society, so that they can’t mess up other people’s lives, work, families and neighborhood, or cause fires, accidents, injuries, shootings, etc. They belong, all together, in a nice isolated walled compound with all the drugs, food and alcohol they want, whenever they want it, on demand and then some. But the deal is, if that’s what they want, that’s where they stay, away from the rest of us. And if Bongzilla wants to give them a concert, fine with me. I’ll even contact my Congressional rep about allocating tax funds for it.
Peace out, dude.
I meant “drunks”, not drinkers. Nothing wrong with the occasional cocktail or indulgence.
Moleman its like this.
I don’t give a rats ass if you and your stupid druggie friends coke/crack/meth/drink/shoot themselves to death.
Its just that you show up wanting free healthcare when you OD or have drug related illness
Or you go out and steal stuff
Or you drive while baked and kill some of the rest of us.
I’d really love to mass produce a great big pile of the white stuff so you can just keep your stupid, irresponsible, noncontributing, leach on societies ass self away from the rest of us.
No peace out from me.
Fricking wake up from what ever escapist irresponsible reality your stuck in.
Love to leagalize it but I aint paying for your healthcare, food or anything else if we do.
Even realtors produce some minor value compared to that.
Testify, Brothah James! Man, thanks for joining me in the trenches.
if you want to self-destruct, well, too bad about that, but don’t take anyone with you, you just don’t have that right. Drugs are destructive, I just read a study about THC (in pot) causing psycotic symptoms, not as riskfree as everyone says. The drug war is a big fiasco, but being self-righteous and having a chip on your shoulder results in people not hearing you. Palmy, James, you’re right on.
“if you want to self-destruct, well, too bad about that, but don’t take anyone with you, you just don’t have that right.”
Testify, lost! I and some other decent tenants were displaced by a fire caused by a couple of lowlife, drunken druggies who thought it was their God-given right to do what they wanted to do no matter what pain or disruption it caused to others. Oh, yeah, they got the royal treatment because they were “victims” and one of ‘em got burned. All the lowlife-lovers were taking up collections for them, while the rest of us could go pound sand. Think we ever got so much as an apology? In a pig’s eye.
Palmy, I’ve watched drugs take out two of my best friends. They knew what they were doing, too. It had a profound and life-time effect on their families and friends (me). Bad stuff. Ugly bad stuff. Lots of drug users seem to have a sense of entitlement.
I hear ya, lost. Been there, too. I know this is a housing blog, not a support group, but you are so right about that sense of entitlement and arrogance. Drunks and druggers don’t run on the same track as the rest of us, which makes it dangerous to be around them.
This sense of entitlement and arrogance seems to be a common thread running through society here in the US these days. It’s in the housing bubble and its many participants, the various corporations, hedge funds, illegal immigration supporters, govmint, you name it. Everybody do what they wanna do, so what if it destroys other people. Decent folks, trying to live life, take care of family and friends, are under attack on many fronts, all over the world.
James, your reply was right on. Druggies want the freedom to get high but then want the rest of us to pay for the consequences.
“your drug war you judgemental little man”
The guy was burned out of his home by some loser druggies.
Ever been to a burn ward in a hospital?
Drunks and druggies are just slo mo suicides…clearly the stuff isn’t potent enough because it’s still slo mo.
” a housing blog, not a support group ”
Nonsense! of course it’s a support group. We support one another in the tiresome wait for house prices to go down, and in the effort to understand whether it’s happening, and in the effort to understand other details of the extremely complex financial world we live in.
“This sense of entitlement and arrogance seems to be a common thread running through society here in the US these days. It’s in the housing bubble and its many participants, the various corporations, hedge funds, illegal immigration supporters, govmint, you name it. Everybody do what they wanna do, so what if it destroys other people. Decent folks, trying to live life, take care of family and friends, are under attack on many fronts, all over the world. ”
Well said palmetto. I feel the same way. I think its going to get worse before it gets better.
…there is the small problem of the mj fumes (yes, from the growing plant) permeating the walls, etc. Dunno if there’s been some better idea, but several years ago in Tacoma, a lovely view home was rented, ended up a grow op, and was deemed uninhabitable by the local health folks, as the residue could not be removed from the structure…
I find the RE and RA statements by the zombies pretty damn hilarious…amazing with all these facts people still believe that! Is there a blog around that is filled with pro housing morons shooting off how there is no bubble? I would like to see it, once the truth comes self evident it will be great to see the posts…I bet they just leave and crawl back into bed and never post again though.
“‘I have been saying it would be the first quarter of 2008 before the market would stabilize,’ Husing said. ‘Now for the first time, I think it depends on what happens with long-term rates.’”
Wow, the idiot savant (without any of the savant) knows how to hedge he’s bet! I’m impressed………..
“Lewis said median home prices have fallen from $414,000 in 2005 to $359,000 now, and it takes nearly three months to sell the typical home.”
That’s a 13% drop for Stanislaus County. Where does it show up in any of the official data?
“Regional economist John Husing of Redlands said the increase in long-term rates is ‘very scary,’ and that the 10-year rate, on which mortgage lending is based, is at its highest in five years.”
Perhaps as part of their containment strategy, the PPT could politely persuade Wall Street investment banks not to dump billions of dollars worth of subprime MBS on the market, as this has a tendency to crash the bond market?
———————————————————————————
Bear Stearns to Liquidate Bond Hedge Fund, People Say (Update5)
By Jody Shenn and Yalman Onaran
June 14 (Bloomberg) — Bear Stearns Cos., the second-biggest U.S. underwriter of mortgage bonds, is liquidating holdings from one of its hedge funds after making money-losing bets on subprime mortgage bonds, said three people with knowledge of the decision.
Bear Stearns sought bids today from prospective buyers for about $3.8 billion of mortgage securities from the fund, said the people, who declined to be identified because the plan isn’t public. The 10-month-old Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, which is down about 20 percent this year, had about $600 million of investors’ money and borrowed to increase its buying power, one of the people said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8JeXeEzdJx0&refer=home
Right. That’s the Mortgage Backed Toilet Paper we were discussing this AM. Except now I’m calling it Bear Stearns Mortgage Backed Used Toilet Paper, or BSMBUTP. BM for short.
“$600 million of investors’ money and borrowed to increase its buying power, one of the people said.”
that’s quite the leverage, no?
10X would be $6B. they are selling $3.8B and that’s probably not all their portfolio, so that could be some heavy leverage.
Luckily the resultant damage to the l-t T-bond market is contained.
Hey Jeff. The Taco Bells in Albuquerque are begging for you. Even putting up big banners asking for your help. You can solve your financial woes.
Does anyone else think that “In the bag” Gary looks like the biggest crook around. His smile on that ugly mug of his made my stomach nauseous (sp?). What a schmuck.
I see Pat Veling crawled out from under his rock to insult customers/buyers again with us not knowing value.
Ohhh, look I at me I work in the respected real estate consulting business and believe my reports because I work in the real estate consulting business.
The arrogant little pr!ck needs to be buried (figuratively) right next to Gary Watts.
See above.
I’ve saved some of his more memorable quotes in hopes that ome day he would reappear for a well deserved Bit*h slap.
Buz Doxly is another one…a little googling (Corporations) and I came up with a Warren Doxly from Coto. Open secrets will lead you to his address. I check now and then for NOD. Nothing yet.
Later
I think EZ Money (LZ’ing Money) from Lansner’s blog is Buzz Doxsey.
He is another arrogant a$$ that has got to go.
because they are running out of land in the Inland Empire - whoever said that obviously never went through the Mohave Desert. Thousands of miles of deserted wasteland in Southern California.
ahhh, remember the boom days? I was just looking at my old links.
remember the b-more cash-flow bus?
City hot spot for investors
A National Real Estate Investors’ Conference at BWI this week drew about 500 people, and many of them hopped on a bus to Baltimore for a tour of potentially lucrative investments.
By Jamie Smith Hopkins
Sun reporter
Originally published October 7, 2005
http://www.rebuildingmadison.info/hotspot.html
“baltimore is red hot!” hahaha
hey is that show ‘the wire’ ever coming back!! whatashow
““Lewis said median home prices have fallen from $414,000 in 2005 to $359,000 now, and it takes nearly three months to sell the typical home. ‘First-time home buyers have the ability to buy now, but…they’re sitting back and waiting because they think the price will go down more,’ Lewis said.””
First-time buyers have the ability to buy? Let’s see. Stanislaus County, California. Median household income = $40,000. Annual interest on a $359,000 median-priced Stanislaus County house at 6.7% = 24,053. That’s well over half the median income.
I guess first-time Stanislausers have the “ability to buy” if they spend virtually no money on anything else…
You’d think grade school arithmetic proficiency would be required for a college journalism degree, wouldn’t you?
Sheesh…On second thought, maybe we BETTER go easy on those In House Pot Farms mentioned above…They could be the ONLY thing POWERING the frigging US Economy at this point .
what, we’ll be selling pot to Mexico?
The US better START producing and selling something besides Wars, Debt and Krispy Kreme donuts….What a Mess !
Man, that combination’s gonna give me nightmares tonight - LOL
I like donuts!
Hoz, you can have my share, OK? Sleep tight…
The “historically low” 30 year fixed is now the highest it’s been in FIVE YEARS!
there goes my house sale…
This just in…Florida’s pinhead politicos have apparently “solved” the tax situation. Film at 11 (East Coast Time). I can hardly wait…
keep us posted - I gotta go take some Pepto Bismol (thanks, Mikey)
Well, here it is…drum roll, please…
On an immediate basis, homeowners get a 3-9% tax cut, depending on the county. (whoop-dee-doo!) And Then…second drum roll…we get to vote for a constitutional amendment that would provide a 75% homestead exemption on the first $200,000 of assessment (pay tax only on 25% of anything up to $200,000), then 15% of anything above that, should there be any, is exempted.
Care to place any bets whether Floridians will vote that one in? Oh, here’s the kicker. You can opt to keep your present SOH if you want. At least, I thinks that’s what they said.
sure lost…blame it ALL on mikey
Hey Gary. Interesting fact for you and housing prices.
Uhaul - Lake Forest CA (next to Gary’s office) to Albuquerque NM $2176 for a 26 ft one way truck. Albuquerque to Lake Forest, $360 (source - http://www.uhaul.com) Looks like a lot of folks moving to Orange county to catch those falling knives of all those trying to sell and move away.
Just when you thought it can’t get any worse… how about 150,000 cash back on a 250,000 house???
http://ventura.craigslist.org/rfs/352378076.html
FBI.. WHERE ARE YOU???
funniest part: the contact Shane Barker of Equity Flips, spiked hair and smug self satisfied shit-eatin grin
hopefully this will paste ok.
(btw ultimately the failure of the law to be enforced will result in EVEN GREATER lending restriction (ie downpayments!)
email this posting to a friend
$250000 French Camp property priced 150k below market value, get 150k cash bac
Reply to: see below
Date: 2007-06-14, 5:29PM PDT
Shane Barker | Equity Flips | 916-548-0399
8029 S Willow Street, French Camp, CA
3 Bdrm Single Family House
offered at $250,000
Year Built Unspecified
Sq Footage 1000
Bedrooms 3
Bathrooms 1 full, 0 partial
Floors 1
Parking Unspecified
Lot Size 8,712 sqft
HOA/Maint $0 per month
see additional photos below
PROPERTY FEATURES
Tile floor Family room Living room
Dining room
ADDITIONAL LINKS
Map of property
Mortgage calculator
ADDITIONAL PHOTOS
Seller contact info:
Shane Barker
Equity Flips
916-548-0399
For sale by individual owner
Equal Opportunity Housing
Posted: Jun 8, 2007, 4:10pm PDT
The US better START producing and selling something besides Wars, Debt and Krispy Kreme donuts….What a Mess
Mikey, Krispy Kreme closed all of its stores in Albuquerque and Salt Lake City (only places I have seen the abandoned buildings). Guess we just have debt and wars. Who is next to get a B52 bomb? Mr. Iran President?
“Who is next to get a B52 bomb?”
That’s if they don’t drop the “gay” bomb, first. Seriously, the Pentagon admitted to trying to develop a bomb that would turn enemy soldiers gay. Jay Leno said they wanted to turn the Iraq War into a musical.
I always joke about Krispy Kreme donuts stock because years back during dot com bust, their stock was the only bright spot MSM could Point to as making a profit for a couple of days.
Any demise of Krispy Kreme donuts will always rank UP THERE with the greats like Bethlehem Steel, PanAm and the Old Rock Island and Pacific Railroad Line
Oh yeah
French Camp CA - just south of Stockton. In 2001 or 2, such a house would have been valued at under $100K. Not a wonderful place to live.
“The escalating size of his debt has yet to worry Crisp, who said that the rising total means little for someone accustomed to dealing with million dollar sums.”
———————-
easy come easy go
“That May Gray that hung over San Diego’s coastline last month also extended to the county’s housing market, as the region’s lowest sales of any May in 12 years clouded over the market’s chances for a quick recovery, according to numbers released by DataQuick.”
The gloomy weather has simply wiped out the red-hot spring sales season in the San Diego market. Maybe if we all pray really, really hard, we can conjure up some hurricanes to hit San Diego in order to create the same frenzied conditions that prevailed in the Florida market in summer 2005.
I laughed when I read that… and then went, ‘yeah right!’ Home sales were down because of May Gray… which occurs each year in… May.
As I recall, San diego experienced a warm May with less marine layer than in years past.
From Ben’s “Daily Bulletin” link: Broker Pat McKenna of Bristol Home Loans in Ontario says with interest rates the way they are, we may see home prices deflating by as much as 5%. That’s hardly a disaster, she said.
It’s too late at night here in the east to be ROTFLMAO, but it’s the thought that counts (my thought of ROTFLMAO).
I went for a jog this morning around the area I live in San Jose — lots of for sales signs, many of them showing ’sold’ - (for about $700k). Would someone mind telling me how this can be? Its not all google employees buying! Its not all to do with living in a ‘desireable area’ - the spin put on by the Realtors. So … why are values increasing in the bay area and why are homes selling? Especially since they are ‘unaffordable’ and most couples do not make $230k a year between them. How?