Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For June 15, 2007
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So these tax cuts seem like a joke.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-mtaxes1507jun15,0,2534247.story?coll=orl-home-headlines
Just what the Florida tax code needed:
more complexity!
at least they TRY to get something done down there! I give them kudos for effort.
Obviously, the best thing is to do nothing, and as FL Real Estate values crash then the taxes take care of themselves, so long as the govt doesn’t change the millage rate…
High taxes are the cost to live in Florida. It should cost more to live in Paradise!
Somebody forgot to run the numbers on having HIGH property taxes and NO income taxes in a state where most people have LOW income. OOPS.
A few rich people live like sheiks, though…
Especially when FEMA pays to rebuild their hurricane damage.
Yes, I awakened this AM to the sound of mobs of people jamming the streets, rushing to buy houses.
some lines taken out of the above article on florida tax cuts…
“We kept hearing that people were scared to give up Save Our Homes to go into this new thing — even though it may be better in the short term,” said Sen. Jim King, R-Jacksonville.
what about long term???
“I’m pretty happy with the fact that every homeowner can make an informed decision on their own.”
sure they can
Supporters will likely include the real-estate industry, home builders and mortgage lenders, lawmakers said.
of course
It’s going to be a hard sell even for a governor with a 70 percent approval rating,” Gelber said, “because he’s got to convince voters to trust the Florida Legislature to do something it has never done, which is adequately fund education.”
trust the Politicians…yeah
Cities and counties will freeze property-tax revenues at this year’s levels and cut up to 9 percent more. Future tax revenues cannot be increased other than allowances for growth and income, although governments could sidestep the cap under some
circumstances.
freeze at this years level??? wont they be dropping the next couple years?? and govt can sidestep….great
Nice commentary, weez.
The advance team of opponents mentioned in the article are, of course, public employees. My libertarian friend says public employees should not be allowed to vote. I think I agree with her, even though I spent several years as a public employee myself. (In fact, being IN a teachers’ union, first as a secondary teacher and then community college prof, gave me complete contempt for their self-righteous posturing.)
az, the interesting thing about Florida’s new tax legislation is the TIMING of the voting. This fall will bring the tsunami of mortgage re-sets. And Floridians will be going to the polls. I don’t know what this means, exactly, I just think the timing is interesting.
Also Florida is a good example of why throwing money at a problem does little to solve it. I don’t think any amount of money will ever boost the quality of education in Florida.
I agree too that public employees should not be allowed to vote. It is clearly a conflict of interest. I was a public employee for 11 years and a libertarian at the same time.
Your perspective as a former public servant may be different, but I would wager that most people on here already think bureaucrats are mindless and dumb. Think of how dumb they would have to be to give up the right to vote just to have a job. We’d have to outsource public jobs to immigrants and felons just to fill them!
“Think of how dumb they would have to be to give up the right to vote just to have a job.”
I disagree. Look at how low voter turnout is, even in pres. elections. My money says they’d keep the job, wave voting goodbye.
So … be a libertarian, abolish democracy.
Hmm, not really selling that to me too well.
I assume the military would be an exception to this? While there is a conflict of interest there, too (you’d expect military folks to vote for higher military budgets if all else was equal), my opinion is that the positives from military voting far outweighs the negatives.
I am a liberal on most issues, but I agree the military often represents the best this country has to offer. The damn civilian judges have beat around the bush for years on Guantanamo, until finally the military judges shut the process down recently. Military training suppresses whining, but it generally doesn’t suppress your conscience. Being put in an absurd and deadly situation for no reason is what eventually erodes the conscience.
Having served in the Army, I can assure you the vast majority there are not the best in any way. It’s a form of welfare.
And I don’t vote as a matter of principle.
I’m an Army veteran as well, and agree that there are plenty of welfare soldiers. However, I believe that they’ve more than earned their right to vote compared to the average citizen, simply based on the sacrifices they’re required to make for their pay if nothing else. I wish every government check required some pushups and doing a police call through the common areas.
Not voting as a matter of principle makes no sense to me.
Heck… why just employees?
Anyone that receives more from the gobment than they pay loses the right to vote. Social Security recepients, medicare/medicaide, military, people that work for defense contractors, people that work for highway construction companies, people that receive farm subsidies, public school teachers….
Once people figure out they can vote themselves a raise, democracy is doomed. The only way to prevent it is to ensure that people that stand to gain most from govt. spending don’t get to vote.
I came up with this theory back when I was in the military. I thought it a major scam that we could get “Earned Income Credit” since only half our pay was counted as income (housing and family support was not included)… Man you should have heard the military scream when congress plugged that little loophole.
Couple years later in a debate between Bush and Clinton in San Diego, a Navy guy in uniform stands up and whines out a question about military pay and how it is so low that half of people in the military are on food stamps…
OMG!!!!!!!!!
This is another loophole that needed plugged. Again, housing didn’t count as income, so people in the military that were lucky enough to be in on-base housing could get food stamps. That same person, if base housing was not available would get money to cover rent and living expenses (BAQ/VHA) so pooff… no longer eligable to foodstamps.
Rather than whining about being on foodstamps, this petty (very petty in his case) officer should have been asking that the loophole be plugged.
It is amazing to me how peoples’ logic switches completly shut off once personal gain is involved.
“Bread and Circuses”
I’m not 100% onboard with not allowing public employees to vote, but certainly public employees should not be allowed to unionize. Some how public employees have lost touch with the concept of public service. This has been replaced by a perverted entitlement mentality. So here’s a reminder to public servants: If you want to serve your fellow man (a noble calling), be a public servant. If you want to get rich, start your own business and work your tail off 60-80 hrs a week.
I guess you don’t know much about unions. Actually, unions tend to suppress higher pay in exchange for better benefits and more job security.
Unions want safety–both the onjob kind and the financial kind. Public unions especially so. Public employees are people who value security over a big paycheck.
Truly qualified public employees tend to received MUCH larger paychecks when they go into the private sector. (Of course, those who aren’t very qualified stay where they are if they’re smart!)
Yes, if you want unlimited income, start your own business.
“I guess you don’t know much about unions. Actually, unions tend to suppress higher pay in exchange for better benefits and more job security.”
I don’t know what the unions are like where you are, but here in California, the Public employees particularly in “public safety” make huge salaries in addition to extremely generous benefits. Even my retired fire captain friend thinks pay and benefits have gotten way out of hand.
The tax cuts will likely help at the margin by reducing monthly carrying costs of residential real estate. But it’s kind of like treating the flu with Tylenol PM. It might ease the symptoms a bit but won’t cure the underlying problem — too much supply, not enough demand, especially with the recent uptick in mortgage rates.
Speaking of market conditions down here, I posted a sneak peak at May sales in my area of South FL, based on some local real estate brokerage figures. The numbers don’t look so hot — a 70% YOY drop in volume and a new high in for-sale inventory. Full details if you want to see ‘em here …
http://tinyurl.com/yuyxa8
Being from Washington state, I must admit to some great confusion about Florida’s property tax system. Here tax increases are at least voted on by the people who will be taxed, and frequently they are rejected. The total tax burden is calculated for each tax district, be that city, county, state or special district. The burden is then apportioned to property owners by their property value. A $400k house will have two times the tax of a $200k home. The mil-rate is then established based on current valuations. If (when) properties are re-valued, the total amount of tax collected does not change, only the mil-rate. The appraised value of the property may rise of fall, but the tax owed is proportional to the percentage value of the property compared to the total tax base. This means that if everyone’s value is doubled, the mil-rate is halved. There are no Prop. 13 like things (or Florida homestead type stuff). There are no huge buying shocks as the tax rate doesn’t jump like in California. The state doesn’t get automatic income jumps. Seems like a fairly reasonable system. I’m not saying it’s perfect, because it’s not. There are cases where people get priced out of their homes because of taxes (especially waterfront properties owned by older folks). But it sure seems more rational and faired than what I understand is going on in Florida and California. Maybe it’s time for a serious look and discussion down there, with the idea of real reform.
Well that would seem to be a much fairer system IMHO.
Fairer and sustainable. No wonder they did it differently in Florida!
$700,000.00 dollar pen.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070614-1321-over-the-topspending.html
Nadine Absolam, a 32-year-old Brooklyn resident, says she likes to have the trendiest designer items, but she said it’s getting harder to come up with the cash.
“My first priority should be my bills. But these designers bring out so many hot items that you must have these things,” said the Pilates instructor. “I am always late with my bills.”
Absolam spends about $1,000 in clothing and accessories per month, about half of her monthly salary. One of her most recent buys was a $1,100 Gucci messenger bag; her boyfriend last Christmas bought her Fendi’s “Spy bag,” priced at around $3,000 and coveted by fashionistas.
“I can’t keep wearing my Spy bag. I have to change it,” to look fresh, Absolam said.
Sickening. The new Gatsby Era. Of course, you know what happened after that.
This person should be removed from the gene pool
She’s a pilates instructor. You can lump her in with Yoga instructors.
Wonder how NY Boy missed this one when he was single and on the loose
she is a real catch
at 32 you would think she woudl get out of that crap by then
brooklyn is filled with htese types of dolts these days
New York (the city) has always been full of these types.
The accessories are more important than ever. Those coveted hedge fund managers are looking at 25 year olds, and she can only out-compete the fresh young ones on style. The pathetic $3,000 handbag boyfriend is just a placeholder.
I like her last name, though. It makes me think of Faulkner, depression, murder and suicide.
Yes, heaven forbid they become hedge fund managers themselves so as not be dependent upon the whims of others for their luxuries.
“Those coveted hedge fund managers are looking at 25 year olds, and she can only out-compete the fresh young ones on style.”
This woman has zero chance with hedge fund manager…the minute she opens her mouth and speaks brooklynese, it’s game over. Those hedge fund guys are looking for models, etc., not this.
Ah yes. Models. They are great conversationalists once they open their mouths.
I think spike’s point is that they don’t open their mouths.
You guys have GOT to see the $3000 Fendi Spy Bag
This kind of nonsense has really become an arms race among women themselves - how many guys would really be able to tell (or care) about these high-priced items?
“Mr. President, we must not allow, a mineshaft gap!” - Gen. Turgidson, Dr. Strangelove
To speak anyway
Did I just say that?
Well they’re not eating so… Oh, nevermind.
“This kind of nonsense has really become an arms race among women themselves - how many guys would really be able to tell (or care) about these high-priced items?”
Looks like a $15 WalMart purse to me….
Oh please, the molto superiore Fendi fashionista dynasty is getting a big fat chuckle at the stupid Americane stampeding each other to buy those ugly-azz POS bags.
The Italians keep all the good stuff for themselves and send the merda to us.
You guys have GOT to see the $3000 Fendi Spy Bag
That bag doesn’t look any different from the stuff they sell at JCPenney.
You can find those purses for $25 US$ in a back room in Shanghai. Brought 2 back for a friend when I was there in April. Of course you’ve got to spend some $$ to get there…
I actually know a Spike born in 66 who is on Wall Street. Eph?
In fairness, guys have ridiculous toys too… tvs, cars, watches, other various gadgets that are shiny or containing new and fancy electronics….
Shop Canal St underground market in NYC…that $3000 bag is $125 or at least something that looks so much like it you can’t tell.
Tulkinghorn,
sorry, buddy. Not me. Used to be with Lehman, then Morgan Stanley. Where’s your friend work?
In defense of yoga instructors, the ones I know are frugal and down to earth. To make a very broad generalization, many teach part-time, working fulltime as gradeschool teachers or social workers. This lady is Pilates instructor, meaning she probably teaches lots of IBankers, etc. and feels the need to keep up the Joneses that she’s exposed to.
Don’t worry the next Depression will remove most of these people…..Pilates Instructors, Art Instructors, Curves, Aura and Lifestyle analysis, Real Estate agents….in fact most people that live off of emotions and hipness instead of their minds.
By 2020, hipness, ennui, and the coffeeshop way of life will be looked upon with a strange sadness.
It will just be a-okay to be debt free and have a full larder and live in a “safer” place. Hand-me-downs from Goodwill may be sufficient.
Life Coaches. Whoever came up with that one?
To sum it up from a great line from a great bite-the-hand-that-feeds-you movie “Repo Man”
To rich suburban punks poseurs to call to their rebelous hipness “Let’s order sushi….and not pay for it!!”
That is the “blank out” hipness that many people in urban environments live in.
To say the least they will never own any land, live in the country or know the joys of growing a tomato.
I am afraid a lot of sadness is coming.
It’s remarkable how many people in this country earn their living by selling pure BS.
One of the best is the Feng Shuei (sp?) crowd. They charge $3,000 to rearrange your furniture.
I think it was part of the Clinton Welfare to Work stuff back in the 90’s
You had to teach “Life Skills” to the welfare recipients so they could get and hold a JOB…..so a “Life Coach” was probably a Yuppie Hipster commercial version of the same thing.
An ex-girlfriend paid $350 for a “design consultant” to come to her condo for two hours and tell her the color to paint her walls and how to rearrange her furniture.
Hey, thanks, aNYCdj. That’s very interesting and rings true. Now I know why they had that Life Coach TV show on during the mid-AM and PM time slots, along with all the vocational school advertising.
Not at all. Life coaches are for rich people. Basically therapists who will actually tell you what to do rather than nod and ask you “how did that make you feel.” Actually one step more useful. Welfare to work people got group life skills classes with info about how to get to work on time without a car, how to find childcare when you have no money, how to behave/dress/groom in a professional office. Life coach is way more upscale.
Oops. I didn’t read carefully enough. You already said that. Sorry. I’m a little tired - lecture at the National Air and Space Museum last night. DC has lots of free geeky stuff to do. There was an education guy out front talking about rocks before we started. I held a rock that was created in a supernova that happened before the solar system was created and had a role in that creation. A rock older than the sun. The scientists call it “Daddy.”
Art Instructors,
…wha?…how did artists get into this mix?
Do people here even know what pilates even mean? How can you lump it with Feng Shuei, and aura?
And how can you lump it together with RE agents?
I think pilates gets a bad rap because it’s the latest accessory among the poseurs, like H3s and Escalades.
*double skinny latte mochaccino with a twist*
It’s kind of hard to be a poser in a pilates class - a noob usually screams like a bitch and runs away within 10-15 minutes of the session. Depends on the instructor, I remember one girl, she had no mercy.
Pilates is not for posers.
Pilates is not for posers.
Max, I agree. I take a weekly class at my gym and it is not for the faint of heart. It works, if you do the work.
Design consultants? Remember when that was big in the ’80’s?
Right before the crash. Lol.
What I don’t get is, how does she even survive in Brooklyn on the $1,000 other-half of her salary? She talks about “my bills,” but I wonder if she lives with Mom and Dad.
Good point, she lives at home, or in a rented room some place, or with said boyfriend, who pays the rent. This is not an independent woman, this is an aging pre-teen spending her allowance.
I’d vote for living rent free with the boyfriend… that can only last so long before the bf gets really, really, really pissed at her freeloading, wasteful lifestyle… Then she’ll be a 35 yo pilates instructor living with her parents.
I went back quickly and added up my clothes/shoes purchases for the last year.
$200 on clothes (mostly bought on Ebay or Sierra Trading Post, a great online outlet). $40 on one new pair of Crocs. I guess I should hang my head in shame. I’m not supporting the designer economy.
So you are telling us that you don’t wear anything?
LOL. No, nothing new. I do trade naked options
trading naked options…. isn’t that illegal? Wasn’t there just a rule change on that making it easier to prosecute.
I also can sell short naked. It depends on how much you’re willing to pay.
LOL
I walked through Soho last night and I just shake my head at the prices I see. I know the kids walking out with that stuff are either spoiled brats or up to their eyeballs in debt. The Village and the Meatpacking District are getting out of hand. Everything is a luxury boutique. Bleecker Street is out of control with thinking everybody wants a $2,000 handbag. It’s sad. Give me a good bar to sit at, not some yuppie boutique.
HEY NYC Boy MGNYC and all: what are you doing Sunday Night? Come to queens on the 7 train:
HEY NYC First ever Zydeco Rock and Blues Night…… This sunday FREE
Breffni Inn Bar
(718) 729-9803
4345 40th St,
Sunnyside, NY 11104 3802
http://www.newyorkcity.com/bars_clubs_music/Breffni_Inn_Bar.52887/map_location.aspx
A mile off the 59th st bridge, steps away from 40th & the 7 train, or the LIE Greenpoint ave or Queens blvd at 58th st, The BQE or midtown tunnel
Check out some video i shot of CJ and Rosie Ledet…….. http://www.youtube.com/aNYCdj
6-11pm Unique New Orleans Mardi Gras Music & more. FREE parking under the 7 train.
I will be in sunny New Jersey this weekend. Pray for me. Thanks for the invite. I hate that 7 train. It’s bad enough taking it between Grand Central and Times Square.
It will be for the next few sundays, I am hoping to build a crowd. They show up for Zydeco Bands so why not a DJ?
Its FREE……(you could tip the dj…lol)
Damn, I missed last night’s session at the (twice-a-week) two dollar a bag store here in town. That’s fill up a bag with any used clothes you want, pay two dollars total. Oh well, I can do without any more clothes till next Tuesday.
LOL! Around here, it’s Wednesday and Saturday AM. And we pay $2.50. The stuff for the guys isn’t as plentiful.
I should say, the stuff for the guys isn’t as plentiful, unless you want to load up your bag with white shoes and belts.
My problem is, that like every other guy my age, I’ve grown out of the 32-34 pants, and into the 36…. Lots and lots of good condition 32″ waist pants. Few 36″.
Geez, Darrell, I’m laughing like a hyena here. That is SO true. The ladies get a much better selection. However, I know you guys must have estate sales over there like we do here. If you can get to one early on a Friday or Saturday AM and make a beeline for the bedroom closets, you can find some great duds for cheap.
her boyfriend last Christmas bought her Fendi’s “Spy bag,” priced at around $3,000 and coveted by fashionistas.
“I can’t keep wearing my Spy bag. I have to change it,” to look fresh, Absolam said
I love it. The $3,000 purse lasted 6 months.
Ya all know the merchant that sold it made $1497.50, the company got $1497.50 the materials cost $4.90 and the worker bee in China got $0.10
And whats wrong with that!
And the credit card company is banking on getting $60/month for the next 17 years.
And Silvia and Carla Fendi party on.
La Dolce Vita at its finest.
…and coveted by fashionistas…
What in the Wide World of Sports is a “fashionista”
Should I be concerned if I am walking down the sidewalk
and happen to pass one? Do they have any
identifiable tattoo’s? Please advise!
Wasn’t former president Carter criticized for urging restraint on consumer spending?
I’m not saying this would be a bad thing, but what would happen to the economy if the leaders in America advised everyone to spend less?
I know that in Asian monetary crisis in 1997, the South Korean government launched an “austerity campaign” to try to change people’s attitudes about conspicuous consumption, esp on luxury imported items….Of course, our goverment basically told them to knock it, you know, since such consumption is “healthy”.
” what would happen to the economy if the leaders in America advised everyone to spend less? ”
War with China, that’s what would happen. I think they’re terrified we might start spending less, so they’re building up their military. Forced spending, LOL!
The sheeple would elect a new set of leaders more in tune with their desires.
txchick57,
What a flippin moron. Oh well,she will be the one working when she is 65,not i. And still the trolls in government wonder why the majority of americans want nothing to do with a bailout ?
See my new sig line…
Chris
“Do you fund your 401k ?”
“And where would one find this “saved money”?”
LOL. “So if we want something and we don’t have the money, THEN can we buy it?”
The funny thing is I have a Chinese friend that can get first class designer bag knock offs for $20 a piece. Gucci, Louis Vinton, Fendi, you name it. If you put a first rate knock off and designer bag together, you would have a hard time not perceiving the difference.
It’ll be pretty funny to see all these “high end” palettes instructors passing by trailer park trash both holding the same bag.
One of the funniest things to me about this housing mania is the stainless steel/granite countertop thing. One of my interests going back decades is kitchen design since I am a hobbyist cook. Back in 1995, I remember reading about how granite countertops and faux or real restaurant appliances were becoming “the thing” in high end (at that time >$500K houses) kitchens. That fad was mostly over by 2000 among the really high end consumers and they were on to new things like the cast concrete, copper, etc. So now, much like the Rolex watch and the cell phone, that 10+ year old fad has migrated down to the hoi polloi poseurs. I find this terribly amusing.
It’s amusing until you go look at houses and see the ugliest granite you can possibly imagine. I’d have to rip it out and replace it to live there.
The place I rent now has granite. It’s thin, so you know they cheaped out a bit. But at least it inoffensive.
I noticed that some of the high-end stuff around here is using quartz for countertops. Interesting, but likely a waste of money. You can get some pretty interesting designs with pre-cast concrete. And it doesn’t have to be expensive at all.
In defense of granite countertops and stainless steel appliances: it makes sense to have them if you plan on selling your home, at least during the fad. Take advantage of the mass mindlessness that drives the market; always consider resale value. Isn’t that what rich folk do? If you can afford it, furnish with antiques, decorate with paintings, buy the Mercedes, buy good jewelry - these items will best retain their value or increase in value over time.
But will they want granite in ten years?
It’s the avacado green of the future.
I’ve looked at lots of real estate over the past four months, and I was amazed at all the bad granite countertops and ornate wood cabinets. I think there is a point at which people go overboard on outfitting their houses. I like nice things, no doubt, but I wouldn’t spend an outrageous amount of money on polished rock and metal with an eye to resale. Houses are too hard to unload. I’d rather use good-quality basics and invest my money elsewhere.
But you have to admit its great for making pastry! Nice and chilly and keeps the butter from melting.
I am looking a rehab that we would buy and hold for 15 years or more. I am tempted to put in the cheapest Formica we can find, since we are likely to need to rehab it again when it is time to sell. Fashions may not change too quickly, but who can predict something like that out 20 years or more?
Avacado green, haha ha . My wife just painted the bathroom in “Lettuce Alone” - I kid you not.
What would be funny is if Nadine’s boyfriend got one of those knock offs for Christmas last year. That would be great.
Fendi has a lawsuit pending against Walmart for counterfeiting those pi$sugly handbags.
If you put a first rate knock off and designer bag together, you would have a hard time not perceiving the difference.
That’s true. If you can identify a designer bag from across the room, you know enough about it to identify a knock-off from across the room.
My favorite is the Louis Vitton pattern that everybody has yet Louis Vitton never used. They did use something pretty similar about 10 years ago.
If the fashion life of a designer bag is 6 months, can you imagine arriving at a party with something that’s been out of style for 19 cycles, let alone a knock-off of something that’s been out of style for 19 cycles???
Most people I know just ignore the whole industry and buy brands that cost less than $150 for an authentic - and then use it for a few years. Though I have to admit I recently purchased a Dolce & Gabbana summer purse for my wife. We were out shopping and she saw it from across the store. When we got over there and she picked it up and she saw the tag, she was disappointed and set it back down. From across the store it looked like it was in the display for a much cheaper brand. I went back the next day and bought it - “only” $300. We make enough to do that every once in a while. She gets lots of compliments on it. The only way to know who made it is to look at a small label, so this one is not going to get knocked off by the Chinese - no point.
Some of those “knockoffs” come out of the exact same factory as the real thing over there in China, just maybe out of a different door during different hours. But that’s not the $10 bag on the cart on Canal St.
Ebay had some huge problems with Chinese knockoffs, and had to pull back from the China business, since luxury goods manufacturers were threatening to sue right and left. Unfortunately, this has affected the average John or Joan Q, who might want to sell Aunt Mamie’s vintage Gucci bag or Tiffany pen. Ebay won’t allow it unless you jump through some hoops. Even then, if one of the monitors from some luxury goods company sees one of their branded items listed by John or Joan Q, they will demand Ebay pull it anyway and then ebay penalizes with account restrictions the person who listed it and treats them as if they were listing a fake. So now, in many cases, you have to get permission from the manufacturer to list and hope they respond instead of ignoring you.
Here’s the irony: ebay created the situation in the first place with their bogus China trade. But, they vigorously punish their long time sellers for the situation THEY created.
Do the luxe goods peeps know about CL?
CL? I must’ve missed something. BTW, I dunno what people see in that Fendi/Louis Vuitton/Hermes stuff, but what do I know? WTF is a Birkin bag, anyway?
CL = Craigslist
Before everyone with a pulse had a credit card, those brands were real status symbols. In the old days, folks didn’t take second mortgages out to pay for pocketbooks.
When I was packing up for my move two years ago I found a stash of handbags that I’d squirreled away. Nothing was wrong with them, I just tired of using them. I could wear any one of them today, and fashion victims probably would think I was sporting the next best thing. They’re 10-15 years old.
What’s interesting is that I see Vuitton bags all the time. You just know from looking at the lady that it’s a knock-off. So if I was wealthy, I wouldn’t bother since everybody would assume it’s fake. Same with diamond stud earrings. The bigger they are the more likely they are to be fake.
So forget conspicuous anything. It’s gradually becoming pointless. Just wait till that thinking hits the car business.
Back in the day, the truly wealthy people, the ones with old family money, often did their best to hide it. Sort of a hangover from the French Revolution and other movements against the rich. Showing off was considered bad form. Buy non-descript, but well made clothes at Brooks Brothers and wear them for years and years. Drive an old (but well maintained) Chevy wagon.
Back in the day when I was kicking around South Florida, I had a buddy who always had to drive the latest Beemer with all the toys. I’ve always driven a paid for POS. We’d both park in Coconut Grove. My car was always untouched. His was always being broken into, the windows smashed and the radio and speakers boosted.
Palmetto,
totally agree. Old money really never changes its style. Check the shirt cuffs on a guy from an old wealthy family…probably frayed because he’s had the shirt since college. Buy good quality, wear it to shreds. Serious old money drives old detroit boats…until they disappear from rust.
I dont think I have spent $1K on all the clothes I have ever bought…A lot of my items have the SA logo…Salvation Army
I don’t want to appear snide, but I doubt whether much high-end fashion gear is aimed at folks with tags like the-economist.
I shocked some of my co-workers when I pointed out that I spend more on books than on clothes each year.
I just could never bring myself to buy used clothing… There’s just too many people out there whose hand I would not shake… but my last batch from target fell apart so fast, I think I need to find another alternative.
I try to be philosophical about the quality from Target. If I was making 25¢ a day, I wouln’t exactly be doing a quality job either.
but my last batch from target fell apart so fast, I think I need to find another alternative.
There you go, MazNJ. Buy the good stuff and wear it for many years. It’s an investment. Personally, that’s what I do. I spend a little more in the good stuff and use it until it is completely worn out, which sometimes takes many years. I have one fancy overcoat that I bought 20 years ago and it’s still looking sharp.
There’s a men’s resale that I buy most of my clothes from now. It is just North of Rice University Village and generally has a lot of previous high ticket clober in there. I guess a lot of people from River Oaks send their stuff there. People have taken care of their stuff.
The only problem is many of my shirts have other people’s names monogrammed on inside so if I’m in an accident without my ID, they’ll probably assume my name is Geoffrey Skilling
Buying better quality that lasts is the only way to go: get yourself a quailty benz/acura sedan and put 150K-200K miles on it over 10-15 years - give it to charity when you’re ready for another one. They’ll be thankful that you took such good care of it and took pride of ownership.
Buy one rolex/swiss that you can wear casual or dress, run over with your car, submerge in water for a week, etc. Gift it to your son on his graduation from college and he’ll never have to buy a watch in his lifetime. It’ll be his favorite watch - forever.
Brooks brothers for pants (esp.when on sale) and shirts - they’ll last for several years if you stay the same size. When your waist outgrows them, let someone who has to shop SA know the feel of a good pair of pants that will last them for a few years.
Last but not least, get a long-living “quality” dog - one that lives for 14-15 years. This way, you can have the pleasure of his company when you’re finally old enough to realize that all of those other things never really mattered in the first place.
dd
“My first priority should be my bills. But these designers bring out so many hot items that you must have these things,” said the Pilates instructor. “I am always late with my bills.”
And people thought the new iPhone wouldn’t sell because of it’s $500 price tag. The sheeple must have!
A fool and his/her money are easily parted.
People like this are great. They look good, they’re supporting the economy, and they inadvertently recruit others to do the same. These days, where a substantial portion of the population have their needs fulfilled, as well as extras like TVs and cell phones, it’s funny to see the senseless extravagences people have to resort to to make them feel that they are better than other people. And the irony is, no one believes that these people are better than anyone else, just frivolous.
The big story on Squawk Box this morning was the treachery that may be perpetrated by our Federal Government. They might have the audacity to tax hedge funds at a corporate rate of 35%, instead of the current rate of 15%. The CNBCers were appalled. How will these bigshots all around me be able to afford private school for Schuyler and Scout, lypo-suction for the misses, girlfriends on the side and high paid lobbyists? We need to stop this. I have already borrowed the giant inflatable rat from in front of the Cipriani Ballroom and will be sending that to Washington. They dare not do such an awful thing to these men that serve us with such great inventions as MBS, CDOs and leveraged buyouts.
I have setup a fund to stop this tragedy. Please send check or money order to:
The Don’t Bone Blackstone Fund
c/o NYCityBoy
New York, NY 10038
***Note: Blackstone should not be terribly impacted. They might be saved by a grandfather clause. I am sure it has nothing to do with their top guy being George Bush’s college roommate and I’m also certain that this has nothing to do with the reason China chose Blackstone as their hedge fund of choice for their investments.
The corruption is just unbelievable.
How currency devaluation destroys wealth
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IF14Dj01.html
“A market rise of 40% against a GDP growth of 3% translates into a currency depreciation of 37% in a year”
“central banks will vehemently fight inflation as measured by rising wages. Thus central banking operates with a severe institutional bias against labor “
FWIW: Henry Liu is an architect, not an economist.
Asia Times: The complete Henry Liu
Turbo-debt:
“US financial assets have been built not only on debt, but on debt recycled at high velocity. It is a form of turbo-debt, in which one dollar of debt can act as equity to finance more than $100 of credit through sequential leveraged financing and leveraged securitization. Borrowers in turn become lenders, who themselves lend borrowed money. Massive financial energy is released through chain reaction of a tiny amount of equity.”
“The corruption is just unbelievable”.
I concur, but what can be done about it? In Washington it’s all about money for nothing, screw the taxpayer. Wall Street, well what else needs to be said, they ain’t going to strangle the golden goose.
I thin Ron Paul is the only financially conservative presidential candidate. Even though he has little chance of winning, I want his message to get out.
Testify, arlingtonva! Actually, I think he does have a chance of winning. The buzz at ground level (just walking around, talking to people in the course of everyday life) is pretty good. And this is in Florida.
I wish you were right, but do you honestly think that someone who pledges to eliminate both the IRS and the Fed will actually LIVE to become president?
Yes, I do.
Ron Paul was on The Colbert Report this week, looking for the “Colbert Bump”. Funny stuff.
I’ve heard of him, but never really followed him. He is SOOOOOOOOOOOOO my kind of politician!
Wow… that last comment sounds stupid..
I’d heard quite a bit about him, but never really heard it right from his own mouth. Then I watched Cobert Report when he was on. Now I’m convinced he is my kind of politician. Almost Libertarian.
Darrell- youtube has a couple video clips of Ron Paul you might be interested in. There’s one called “Ron Paul OWNZ The Federal Reserve”: it’s him speaking at the House Financial Services Committee. Bernanke doesn’t show up on the video but was present. Great stuff!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4kxTkhwR_Q
He is a libertarian. He ran for president as a Libertarian in 1988. He’s principled, honest, and decent. Why the heck is someone like that running for president?!?
There goes the $400 Stone Crab Claws!
Any of you Marin County folks ever go to Roxanne’s before it closed? I loved the idea but my god . . . the expense! These restaurant prices are breathtaking! And they still fail!
Speaking to the knock-off thread above, you can get fake Rolex watches that not only have an automatic movement (japanese I think), but they even attempt to engrave the components inside but have trouble spelling “rolex” or “geneve”. I was in a shop in Rhodes and the guy had copies of practically all the mass-market higher-end watches for about $200 each. And people were snapping them up.
I would LOVE to have a knock-off Rolex with the word “Rolex” misspelled. Maybe two “ls” or add a “w” after the “o.” Do they really exist? What a great conversation piece, not to mention a statement of the ridiculousness of conspicuous consumption.
There’s a fine line between knock-off (legal) and counterfeit (illegal - and can have incredible penalties). The knock-off manufacturers [generally] know this. Which is why the watches you saw probably had intentional troubles spelling Rolex and Geneve, and why people that really know what the designer bags look like can spot the knock-off from across the room.
In some European countries they actually have the fashion police. If you get noticed in public being in possession of non-authentic goods, you have to pay a fine equal to some multiple of the retail cost of the authentic item. This is probably why Italy is still a fashion leader - people that can’t truly afford the high-end stuff still want to look good. Lesser-known designers have a market as they try to make a name for themselves. Sort of like the fashion minor leagues.
Signs all over Florence when I was there last year threatening a 10,000 Euro fine to anyone in possession of knock-off goods. Rome had cops walking around chasing off all the street side sales people. Funny to see them all run when a cop comes around the corner. They keep their goods on sheets. Rumor of a cop in the area, they grab the four corners of the sheet, turning it into a bundle, and off they scurry.
How much for a knock-off purse? They start at 30 euro. I wasn’t really interested in buying, just checking prices… By the time I finally convinced him I was REALLY not interested, the price was 5 euro.
My wife doesn’t understand why I don’t like to wear the Rolex and other knockoffs she brings back from the Far East. (Collecting watches seems to be her hobby.)
Things like the second and minute hands being imperceptibly different in size, a “day date” watch without the date and so on. Little “design” shortcuts to cut cost that in total make the watch unusable and unreadable. Instead I wore out the $24 drug store special that she calls “The Wall Clock” (OK - It IS kind of noisy at that
)
Still, probably a better deal than the radio updated watch I wore on an airplane over Denver as the year 2000 struck the Greenwich meridian - damn thing never worked well after that.
June 14, 2007, 5:13 pm
Jesse Jackson Cries Foul Over Blackstone IPO
Posted by Dana Cimilluca
Jesse Jackson is not impressed with Stephen Schwarzman’s new-found wealth. What Jackson is more focused on is the list of underwriters for the $4.7 billion IPO of Schwarzman’s firm, The Blackstone Group. In an interview with Deal Journal, Jackson says the share sale unfairly shortchanges minority-owned firms.
“We’re going to protest this pattern of exclusion,” Jackson says. He calls it “Wall Street apartheid.”
Seven minority-owned firms are in line for just $750,000 of the total estimated $150 million in fees that Blackstone will pay to underwriters, Jackson says. These firms’ roles are so small that they’re not even listed in the Blackstone prospectus, which does name 17 other banks, he adds.
Jackson says he brought a group of bankers from minority-owned firms to Blackstone’s offices. His pleadings for a greater role on the deal for them fell on deaf ears, he says.
The civil rights leader goes on: “We are qualified people to be on the front side of this deal.” He named minority-owned firms including Blaylock & Co., Loop Capital and Williams Capital. Such firms have “not a capacity but an opportunity deficit.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2007/06/14/jesse-jackson-cries-foul-over-blackstone-ipo/
The poverty racket in all it’s glory. Wonder what kind of finder’s fee Jackson will pocket for this. Jackson probably figures it’s an easy 750k in nuisance fees.
And I wonder if Double J will succeed in shaking down The Street.
Private equity firms claim to have an advantage over public firms because they don’t have to follow costly regulations such as Sarbanes-Oxley. So when they go public, it’s smells of hypocrisy, like a anti-prostitution church running a cathouse.
Or that they realize the best part of the party is over and it is time to diversify their holdings.
Is the Blackstone deal basically a transfer of wealth from American taxpayers to the Chinese (and other IPO participants at the front of the line)?
Tax Boost Sought
For Buyout Firms
Planning IPOs
Senate Measure Inspired
By Blackstone Offering;
‘A Shot Across the Bow’
By DENNIS K. BERMAN, SARAH LUECK and HENNY SENDER
June 15, 2007; Page A1
Federal lawmakers launched a bipartisan broadside against the booming private-equity industry on the eve of the hotly anticipated public offering of Blackstone Group.
(”The nature of investment vehicles is changing right before our eyes, and the tax code must keep up with the times … Creative new structures for investment vehicles may blur the lines for the tax treatment of income. We must make the law clear and apply the law fairly, or risk the erosion of our corporate tax base. If a publicly traded partnership makes its money by providing financial services, that active business should be taxed as a corporation. ” – Sen. Max Baucus)
There has been growing alarm in Washington at the prospect of hedge funds and buyout firms, historically structured as highly lucrative private partnerships, becoming publicly traded companies but continuing to pay taxes at the lower rates of partnerships. Yesterday, the two top lawmakers on the Senate Finance Committee introduced a bill to change that arrangement by raising the tax rate on private-equity firms that go public — a move inspired, they said, by Blackstone’s offering.
“Right now, some businesses are crossing the line between reasonably lowering their tax burden and pretending to be something they’re not to avoid most, if not all, corporate taxes,” said Sen. Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican who is the ranking minority member on the Senate Finance Committee. “It’s unfair to allow a publicly traded company to act like a corporation but not pay corporate tax, contrary to the intent of the tax code.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118185483791435821.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
moin from Germany
from the Goldman Sachs F2Q07 (Qtr End 5/25/07) Earnings Call Transcript via Seeking Alpha
“Our Investment Banking backlog increased during the quarter and reached a new record level, surpassing for the first time the prior record set in the second quarter of 2000″
Bear Stearns Press Release
Average customer margin debt balances for the quarter ended May 31, 2007 reached a record average of $95.4 billion, up 40% from an average of $68.4 billion in the quarter ended May 31, 2006. Customer short balances averaged $101.9 billion during the second quarter of 2007, up 27% from an average of $80.2 billion in the second quarter of 2006
……..
Good thing the stock market always goes up, or those huge leveraged bets would be cause for concern.
Yun says media to blame for housing woes:
“In Yun’s view, rising incomes and declining home prices ought to have stimulated sales this year were it not for housing bubble scares in the media.”
Link:
http://www.sptimes.com/2007/06/15/Business/Housing_market_will_c.shtml
I guess he believes that if housing prices were 10 times what they were, and incomes the same, prices would still rise were it not for the media. Hey, fool, your price is too high and we can’t afford it!
Sometimes I read the MSM quotes and can only groan.
Sales down due to the media? Yea… no afford ability issue, nothing to see here..
Got popcorn?
NEil
And if CNBC had never mentioned all those tech companies going bankrupt in 2001, then NASDAQ would be at 100,000 and companies would be trading at a 1,000 P/E.
I thought it was the weather’s fault, and now he is blaming the media. Kill the messenger time for Larry…
“Ever optimistic, Yun suggested a way out of the thicket: Thousands of homes will peel off into the rental market, while others drop off the charts as owners wait out the slump.”
L.Y.’er almost makes you forget the other shill that used to what he does.
What was his name?
“declining home prices”
Is he really stupid enough to think that end-user buyers would not want to tread cautiously when facing the risk of home equity losses that more than wipeout their annual household incomes? I am not exaggerating here — for instance, the S&P 500 / Case-Shiller (repeat sales) index for San Diego showed a 6 percent decline from the first quarter of 2006 through the first quarter of 2007. For a San Diego household earning the median income (roughly $65,000 / year), buying a home in early 2006 priced at $1m could have set them back by nearly an entire year’s worth of income. And unfortunately, given severely-debased lending standards, buying homes at prices the buyer could not really afford was relatively easy until very recently.
‘Yun was appointed last month as the top economic spokesman for the Washington-based Realtors group. He succeeded economist David Lereah, discredited after maintaining rosy outlooks amid an increasingly troubled housing market and promoting his 2005 book, Are You Missing The Real Estate Boom - Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through the End of the Decade.’
LOL
Luv ya Blue! Former Houston Oiler indicted for…. take a wild guess…..
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4890296.html
How many times have I said over the past 2 years that fraud in TX was as bad or worse than any other bubble area? Watch for total losses when it’s all toted up and passed on to the taxpayer.
We haven’t heard much about Oklahoma. Okies always try to outdo the Texans; especially when it comes to fraud. (TX_chick, I bet you remember Penn Square National Bank.) When I lived in Kansas long-time residents always told me to “never buy anything in Oklahoma.” Did the bubble ever hit OKC, Tulsa, and “Green Country?” Is Oklahoma experiencing an energy boom like it did in the late 1970s?
Penn Square….that’s a blast from the past. Refresh my memory - was that the bank that was in a strip mall that was the start of the oil patch bank crisis? It’s been so long I can’t remember anymore.
It was a single office bank in a enclosed shopping mall (Penn Square Shopping Center). It got involved heavily in oil & gas development and real estate development loans. Took in lots and lots of brokered deposits to fund the loans. The bank grew exponentially then failed (right before completion of their new office tower). The bank was the subject of a well-selling book by a WSJ reporter, Phillip Zweig. The book’s title is Belly Up.
What a great time that was! I was just a kid and my neighbors dad was the guy all the oilies (people who struck or borrowed it rich in the oil patch) went to for loans to buy horses. We used to fly around the country to horse shows on the banks dime. Go read Belly Up, it’s a tome, but we Okies really did a number on those East coast bankers!
I knew people making $70k who were living in their cars in the park because there was a shortage of housing. Builders scrambled to start new housing additions, but the boom went bust before many were finished. Twenty years later those additions are finally filled out. Could be because of articles like this:
Five Hot Real Estate Markets
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=1493575
There was a small run up in 2005, but things seem like they’re back to normal. Who would want to live here? It’s either too hot or too cold, and there’s rarely anything interesting to do. The only benefit is it sure is cheap!
I used to analyze other banks for the bank I worked for and I remember tracking Penn Square exposure at the different entities. That one was a hoot!
I remember Shaun Jones when he played with the Oilers…he used to work as an accountant during the off-season.
It’s good to see that racism has diminished in Texas to the point where Afro-Americans get to join white people in committing white collar crimes, rather than being confined to less lucrative street crimes. Shows how far we have come as a country.
“An equal opportunity fraud.”
You are in good hands with all state fraud
I was watching this stupid CNBC show the other night….Millionare Inside.
So this one guy says it is all about getting 15% annual return on your money…. No word on how to do that without huge risk, meaning some years youre gonna lose rather than gain…
But let’s ignore the utter impossibility of getting 15% year after year in high risk investments and never hitting a big stumble… Let’s pretend we have a magic money printing machine that let’s us crank out 15% return year over year.
His theory was that if you save $10 a day for 10 years, and get a constant 15%, you can retire in 10 years. What?
For the sake of argument, let’s say I have the full $35K to invest right now.. And I crank that money trough my magic money printing machine for constant 15% annual RoI. After 10 years you’d have, eng… $150K. At 15%, the year you want to retire you’re interest income is $22.5K. Hardly a “retirement wage”.
However, what we’re really talking about in this scenario isn’t 15%. It is 15% ABOVE real inflation… so now we have to figure out how to generate 20% RoI to cover inflation.
And, since he wasn’t advocating putting the $35K up front, but averagineg it, our actual growth will be about half what this above scenario predicts… So instead of $150K, it is more like $95K so our retirement income at 15% is $14.5K.
$10 a day for 10 years, even if we could generate 15% above inflation? And we can retire??? On $14.5K a year? Who believes this utter BS???
Oh yeah, fools that buy these peoples’ books…. which is what this program WAS REALLY ABOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It sure looks like a tv show, but really it was an infomercial to help sell “get rich quick” bs books.
The MSM has NO credibility!
Berkshire Hathaway (Buffet) has averaged 22% per year for 40 years. That is why he is the 2nd richest guy in the richest country in the world. It is an extremely difficult thing to achieve.
It is with a large asset base.
Darrell, you are so right. I didn’t trust yr math, because I thought 15% per yr on starting $35K would produce more, fairly fast, but no. The thing is, there were 12% AAA munis available when I was a software engineer in the early 1980’s, and I always think that’s the secret of my being able to avoid “straight” job now. But the truth is, it takes a lot longer than 10 years to get to a possibility of retirement, and I think for the persons born after (say) 1960, it’ll take not only 40 years’ work and extreme frugality but also several strokes of good luck.
I don’t understand the emphasis on retirement. Shouldn’t you live the same way later in life as you did at the start? Why is work looked down as a bad thing? I hope to work for the rest of my life. The key of course is to do work you want to do.
Just to clarify; I think it’s good to have enough money where you can survive if you can’t work, and just for general fincial security.
There’s nothing wrong with working. But as most people get older, they move and think slower. Parts start breaking down. Then there’s boredom, ageism, etc.
I’ll never be able to retire. Hopefully we’ll find some way to burden my childeren with my health care costs, becasue my bosses won’t want to… but I’ll still have to work just as hard as I do today….. that, or hope one of my kids will take me in for the pittance that my social security will be.
“I think for the persons born after (say) 1960, it’ll take not only 40 years’ work and extreme frugality but also several strokes of good luck.”
So, me, born in 1967, wiped out by divorce a few years ago…
(after a 15 year marriage to a woman that wouldn’t work, I was looking at life-time alimony. I gave her everything but the debt plus $40K alimony over 5 years on top of $12K a year child support, and I paid the $15K in legal fees to get this great deal.. WHATEVER it took to avoid that life-time alimony)
Where was I? Oh yeah..
40 y/o with negative net worth due to being wiped out by divorce 5 years ago, wages flat over the last 8 years (in actual dollars, I make almost exaclty as much now as I was in ‘99) so actually losing ground quickly based on inflation adjusted dollars, still paying $12K a year in child support (2 more years, but college after that).
You mean I won’t be retiring in 10 years? Even if I find a way to guarantee 15% return over inflation and put away $10 a day?
I thought alimony ended because of no-fault divorce…
And doesn’t it end when spouse marries?
No fault divorce just means it’s a straight financial transaction, following the states “guidelines” Which usually means the wife keeps all the assets, while the husband gets all the liabilities.
Darrell in PHX story sounds uncomfortably close to my own….
And yes, “theoretically” alimony ends when the ex- remarries…..except most of them nowadays just shack up with their boyfriends. Why get married, and lose the gravy train?
You can try to contest this in court…….assuming you have any money to pay your lawyer after paying alimony, child support, plus your normal (constantly going up) living expenses. Plus all the stuff for the kids you end up paying for, because “Mom says she doesn’t have any money…”
(Bitter divorced guy rant off)
I saw that. My favorite part was the woman who mentioned she bought in NY village for 900k many years ago and now it was worth 5 mil. Still trying to pass on the RE bull. Gotta love it.
Hell, if you had a time machine, you could make money on just about anything… sports, cards, craps, real estate, stocks, bonds, cattle futures….
They are doing what the weight loss people do… “I lost 100 pounds on xxx”…. with the small print saying “results not typical”. So, give me the TYPICAL!!!! Oh wait. No one is spending $100s a month to lose 5 pounds over 6 months, then put back on 10 over the next 6.
Lies, damn loes, and gubment lies.
Core CPI… 0.1%
Well, really the numba is 0.149…. so 1/1000 from 0.15 so headline would have been 0.2% core since they always round to 10th for headlines.
Convenient number… no?
The Wall Street cargo cult will renew calls for helicopter drops on that number.
Darrell:
Good Catch ! The headlines in the WSJ read 0.1 % BUT
“Unrounded, the CPI rose 0.674% last month. The core CPI advanced 0.149% unrounded, so that component came very close to being rounded up to 0.2%”
And then for the next half hour on CNBC all (and I mean all) the commentary and discussion was on that 0.1%. No mention of the “headline” number after the actual announcement, and no mention whatsoever of the $192B Q1 CAD which was announced at exactly the same time.
what’s CAD? sorry, maybe I’m not quite awake yet
It came to me just as I pressed the button. Current accounts deficit?
Yep.
A number which I expect to see become increasingly significant as the net income deficit increases.
Anyone know what kind of prices Bear Stearns received on their CDO auction yesterday?
http://www.suntimes.com/classifieds/homes/homelife/428226,HOF-News-flip15s.article
Star flipper called ethical flop
FLIP THIS HOUSE | Legal filings claim reality show host faked his successes
This story is soooooo a month ago.
Go, go Goodyear tire company… Closing plants in expensive countries and opening in cheap countries… Stock up 68% this year.
Got to love globalization.
I don’t know about any of the countries besides the US, but Goodyear actually completely lost control of their US factories. What was happening was the factories were producing tires nobody wanted (because they were the easiest to manufacture) and then the unwanted tires were just sent to a local warehouse to rot. Goodyear was forced to build all their popular tires in Canada and elsewhere.
Last year they tried to fight back, which resulted in a very long and drawn out strike. Did the retail world notice? Nope, all the tires that people wanted were being made elsewhere. The strike eliminated huge costs from Goodyear’s bottom line and did very little damage to their revenue stream. Which is why the stock shot straight up.
The one area the strike really affected was the military tire market. Goodyear engineers and other salaried workers crossed the picket lines and built the tires themselves, but couldn’t keep up with demand. Every tire they built was sent straight to Iraq, and over at the Humvee factory in Indiana the Hummers were piling up. They installed any old crap tire they could find and parked them in a lot, waiting for military tires to show up so they could be installed and shipped overseas. It was a mess, thanks to the Goodyear union.
It was a mess, thanks to the Goodyear union
And what exactly have you done to support the War on Global Terrorism lately?
I think most of us pay taxes…….hows that for support?
If their product used to be bad, now is terrible. Had some goodyears on my car that lasted 23k Miles and they were pampered. By the 7K mark they already had issues. BAD, BAD, Terrible….
Yesterday a poster here wryly inquired whether BSC stands for Black Swan Coming. It sounds as though some BSC gurus have recently become Fools of Randomness. I am wondering to what extent dumping nearly $4b in subprime MBS explains the recent l-t T-bond selloff, and whether more such surprises lurk in the near future?
—————————————————————————————————————
Subprime Woes Pinch Bear’s Mortgage Star
By Kate Kelly and Serena Ng
Word Count: 933 | Companies Featured in This Article: Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs Group, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch
At a financial conference in late February, Ralph Cioffi, a senior hedge-fund manager for Wall Street firm Bear Stearns Cos., said that a meltdown in the subprime-mortgage market was “unlikely to occur.”
He spoke too soon.
Five days after the conference, an index tracking subprime mortgages, the riskiest piece of the mortgage market, fell to its lowest point ever. And in recent months, the riskier of the two funds he runs for Bear Stearns, the $600 million High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, tumbled in value amid a surge in home-mortgage defaults.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118182223250235230.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
Of course it was unlikely to occur - he needed time to get his personal portfolio inline with what was about to happen.
Just a few mins ago, got into last Sunday’s NYT book review and noticed “The Black Swan” on best-seller list, wouldn’t have had a clue what it was about, but for your posts. Now am interested, might even spend the $27 to buy it. Libraries here primitive.
Spend the money. Highly recommended.
June 15, 2007, 8:31 am
Why Bernanke’s Great Depression Research Matters Today
Ideas that Ben Bernanke pioneered years before becoming Federal Reserve Chairman could prove important in evaluating how financial stress, such as the subprime mortgage mess, affects the economy.
…
Mr. Bernanke doesn’t say it, but the current crisis in the subprime mortgage market may be a perfect illustration of the financial accelerator at work today. Many subprime borrowers are facing bankruptcy because their net worth has collapsed and they can’t get new credit. Similarly, numerous subprime lenders have gone bankrupt because they could not get financing to continue operations from newly skeptical Wall Street lenders. As yet, there has been little spillover from these developments into consumer spending or the economy overall. But given his historical interest in the subject, Mr. Bernanke will certainly be on the alert.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118182223250235230.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
Ahhh the joy of living in former skid row areas. I wonder how many more tragedies like this there will be. Put the lipstick on the pig - wood floors, garden baths, granite countertops, etc etc - but neglect to mention the stray bullets flying through the air.
LOCATION - DALLAS TX
http://www.apartmentwiz.com/dallas_apartments/dallas_apartments_specials/dallas_downtown_apartments/camden_farmers_market.php
Now read what happened here last night:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/061407dnmetbaby.c621d2.html
This is truly stuff that just makes me sick. But somehow - oh so predictable.
Very sad. But it can happen anywhere. When I was a kid in a “Mayberry RFD” type of community (mostly white and a few Native Americans) in a small mountain area around the year 1965 there was also a series of shootings. Not random. Some man murdered his parents. When you live far off in the country, law enforcement and emergency medical help is not as likely as in an urban area. I would think that in the Dallas case above, the mother would be dead if this happened in a rural location.
Some folks think cities will be the worst places to live in case of an economic collapse (riots, lootings, etc). But I am not so sure. You can stock your garage with dried foods and store water. If you are very concerned about utilities, you can also put solar photovoltaic panels on your roof to harness energy. In case of peak oil when a barrel costs more than $100 you can use mass transportation or a bicycle. No mass transit in the country and no good hospitals.
Well, there’s a tipping point in the city versus rural decision. If we stay on this side of it, where the hospital is always staffed with well-fed people and there’s a job (with a salary that can be traded for food and whatever else) to bicycle or mass-transit to, the city is more comfortable. On the other side all that matters is can you grow enough food, and defend the food you’ve got. In the second case I think rural wins. Either case may require a lot more cooperation with the neighbors than people are used to.
That’s Rude Karl’s hood, approximately. This is what I’ve been saying. The greedy developers are sticking junk like this in areas that don’t warrant it. They take their money, buy the Corvette and move on. IMO, you’d have to be nuts to live that close to the freeways in downtown Dallas, I don’t care how many damn gates they put around it.
Don’t miss this if it’s on your PBS station (it’s online after that)
http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/324/index.html
Oh my, look at the meltup. As predicted.
We’re likely to have a meltup throughout summer, with two important caveats: Middle East turmoil spilling over the already proscribed boundaries and or hurricanes in the GOM. After today’s market action wraps up the three day run could be one for the record books.
side note: regardless of what the Wall St. cheerleaders say, yesterday’s and today’s headline, government cooked inflation data is very ugly indeed, core baloney notwithstanding.
side note 2: FWIW, the 10 yr treasury late last night actually touched 540.
So its 5.19 now I guess some fool bet wrong on the inflation data.
Yeah, like the fools who purchase the crap notes for a measly 5% return.
Now the Blackstone IPO in July is the target to load your puts.
….and TIO operations are in overdrive at Treasury. Bond prices back up today. Whoda thunk (wink).
Yeah, that has been assimilated into the risk metric (for now).
Really, can this be any more like 1987?
Really, can this be any more like 1987?
The bond move is soooooo similar to 87. It remains to be seen if the eventual correction mirrors or even surpasses the 87 event. For my money it’s gonna surpass it, albeit over a longer stretch. There’s money to be made, lots and lots, either way it shakes out.
Has the last bear thrown in the towel yet, though? There is still a good deal of hopeful bears out there. No?
Not here. I’ll get bullish again when we make a double bottom with the 2002 lows.
In the words of the oft spoken (and oft wrong, timing wise) Bob Prechter, watch the consumer. He’s (the consumer) a wobblin, government cooked stats notwithstanding.
Is inflation as well-contained as subprime?
CPI: Inflation well contained
Consumer prices in May up modestly after factoring out energy and food inputs. The headline number shows 0.7% growth.
http://www.marketwatch.com
Or is it the risk premiums on l-t T-bond that are well-contained?
0.7% growth over a month ago is almost a double-digit annual rate. But it’s okay because it was EXPECTED.
I always thought 1984 was a fictional novel, not a book of prophecies.
“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”
George Orwell
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/061507dnbusrealtors.38914f7.html
“And servers had to hustle to keep up with demand for finger food.”
Builders are feeding the hungry - the realtors. Maybe Centex figures that the last suckers that are going to buy their houses are the realtors themselves - since the NAR is touting it is such a great time to buy.
China Gold Bonds
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-06/15/content_895515.htm
Fixed and variable rate. Variable rate based on spot price of gold. This is what the U.S. Series I bonds could have been and should have been. Protects the principle against deflation as well as inflation.
Looks like AZCentral (the wedsite of the AZ Republic and local NBC news) has taken down their Real Estate reporter’s blog.
http://www.azcentral.com/blogs/index.php?blog=164&blogtype=Bizblogs
It’s because you were always so MEAN to her Darrell! Shame on you!
What??? All I said was that the demands of bringing in ad revenues from the RE industry were challenging her, and the paper’s, journalistic integrity.
Oh, and constantly explained how wrong she was on just about everything.
What’s so mean about that?
Your sarcasm meter needs to be adjusted.
Or… maybe yours does. I knew you were being sarcastic, and I was being sarcastic back.
Touche!
Home Foreclosures Hit Fresh High
By Damian Paletta and James R. Hagerty
Word Count: 575
WASHINGTON — A record number of homeowners entered the foreclosure process during the first quarter, topping the previous high set in the final quarter of 2006 and reflecting continued stress on the jittery housing market, according to a report released by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
…
The delinquency rate on prime loans rose in the first quarter to 2.58% from 2.25% a year earlier (+14.7%). For subprime loans, the rate increased to 13.77% from 11.5% (+19.7%). Delinquency rates on prime adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 3.69% from 2.3% a year earlier (+60.4%). On subprime ARMs, the rate climbed to 15.75% from 12.02% (+31%).
IMPORTANT: The prime ARM delinquencies are rising the fastest. As the recently-released Ivy Zelman’s reset chart indicates, the worst foreseeable reset problem a few years out is in the prime and Alt-A tranches, and this delinquency rate data suggests that prime ARMs have a very high growth rate in delinquencies.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118183372305735393.html?mod=mkts_main_news_hs_h
From today’s St. Paul (Mn) Pioneer Press:
“The number of Minnesota homeowners seriously late on payments or in foreclosure on subprime adjustable-rate mortgages jumped to all-time highs in the first three months of this year.
Julie Gugin, executive director of the Minnesota Home Ownership Center, called Minnesota’s high subprime-delinquency rates “extremely worrisome.”
“We’re continuing to look at ways to address the crisis,” Gugin said. “We’re estimating another three years of these kinds of patterns before we see a real leveling out.”
“There are still people out there who are on subprime ARMS that have a year or year and a half to go before they reset. They aren’t feeling the pressure yet,” Stinson said.
Thursday’s national delinquency report shows Minnesotans roughly tracking with the national average, or worse with subprime ARMS. Other data suggest the state’s homeowners are falling behind on subprime mortgages payments at a significantly higher rate than the national average.
In the greater Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area, almost 19 percent of homeowners with subprime loans were 60 days or more late, putting it in the Top 25 for worst performing metro areas.”
http://www.twincities.com/
it’s only just getting warm. i say again, “hold your cash and watch it crash.” we’re gonna pounce on the bottom.
That’s assuming Cmdr. Bernanke doesn’t start up the helicopters.
Three Basy Area articles today (all from the SF Chronicle):
1. “May home sales slide to lowest level in 12 years; prices up a bit”
(article actually points out that the rise in median is due to vast drop in lower-piced home sales)
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/06/15/BUGL6QFGPM1.DTL
2. I Do Not Have $1 Million
Ergo, I cannot buy a delicious home in San Francisco. Ergo, I am screwed forever
(tragi-comic — funny stuff)
http://www.sfgate.com/columnists/morford/
3. Is it time for buyers to get in the driver’s seat?
(answer: not unless you’re seriously under the influecnce)
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2007/06/15/carollloyd.DTL
Nadine Absalom
(I just wanted to type her name)
From “overheard at the office”
http://www.overheardintheoffice.com/archives/003580.html
4PM Seriously, Never Condo Shop When You’re High
Waitress #1: I hate working here.
Waitress #2: Then why do you?
Waitress #1: Because, I bought a condo in San Diego, and now I have to work here on the weekends to make sure my mortgage is paid.
Waitress #2: Can’t you just return it? Or sell it back?
Waitress #1: I don’t have the receipt.
San Diego, California
Overheard by: Stephanie Burns
Late today, but behold! The MBA frantically tries to shine up the foreclosure pile as follows:
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/6152007_Delinquency_Report.asp
*begin snips*
Results of the quarterly National Delinquency Survey conducted by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) were released on Thursday and were much less alarmist than the RealtyTrac figures. Granted it is a different time line - RealtyTrac was talking about May activity while MBA’s data was dealing with the first quarter of 2007 - a period that ended March 31. However, MBA’s interpretation of its own data was reassuring…
According to Doug Duncan, MBA’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Business Development, the data is being driven by circumstances in seven states. “The percentage of loans in foreclosure would be well below the average of the last ten years were it not for Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana, and the rate of foreclosures started nationwide would have fallen were it not for the big jumps in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona.”
Foreclosure starts set a record but most of the increase was due to events in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. “Without these four states, foreclosure starts would have declined,” Duncan said. In fact, 24 states did see a decline in starts. Duncan blamed a portion of the foreclosure starts in the four states on speculators who are walking away from properties in the face of declining prices and interest rate resets. The chaos in Florida’s homeowner insurance market is also contributing to the problem.
First of all, the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on single family to four-family properties at the end of the quarter was 4.84 percent of all outstanding loans. This is a decrease of 11 basis points on a seasonally adjusted basis from the end of the fourth quarter in 2006 and an increase of 43 basis points from one year earlier. These are not loans in foreclosure - merely loans where the borrowers are not up-to-date on payments but not yet for a period long enough to have caused the loans to enter the foreclosure process. Based on the reported universe for MBA data, we estimate that about 2,130,000 households are currently delinquent on mortgage payments.
The rate of loans actually going into foreclosure (which we assume would correspond to RealtyTrac’s “people (who) got foreclosure notices”) was 0.58 percent, up four basis points from quarter four of 2006 when seasonally adjusted, and 17 basis points higher than one year ago. Again, based on the reported MBA universe, this would mean approximately 255,000 households receiving notice of legal action over a three month period or about 85,000 per month.
*end snips*
Note first: the shining process is for first quarter 2007, not second quarter current data. Note second: this is “seasonally adjusted” data - whatever that means. Note third: they estimate that over 2 million households are delinquent on their mortgage payments anyway - not only would that be consistent with the RealtyTrac numbers, but it might actually foreshadow massive 2q and 3q foreclosure waves. Imagine if 2 million households default simultaneously at an average of $250k per household - that’s potentially $500 billion or more worth of defaults looming! Think Bear, Stearns will be able to talk their way out of the CDO obligations they’ve been peddling on this?
Shine on, MBA!
“we estimate that about 2,130,000 households are currently delinquent on mortgage payments.”
This is staggering to me. When is the admin going to stop playing around with amnesty and actually focus on the domestic economy?
For fans of the thehousingbubblelog and Pink Floyd.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDbgUVM98YI
Mother should I trust the government?
14.8M for Rupert Murdoch’s Long Island digs.
I say he cuts price after the July 4th weekend. Anyone else wanna toss in a date?
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzmurdoch0615-story,0,1240715.story?coll=ny-business-leadheadlines
“The asking price is double the almost $7.8 million that he and wife, Wendi, shelled out for the 4.5 acre compound four years ago, even though the up-market competition is tight.”
“At least six other estates with asking $5 million-plus asking prices are on the market in Centre Island. Singer Billy Joel’s Middlesea estate has been for sale since September – he can’t get a dock for his boat - with a reduced price now of $32.5 million. (Just two months ago, off the shores of St. Bart’s island in the Caribbean, the Murdochs hosted Joel and wife, Katie Lee, on his new 183-foot yacht.) Southerly, a 10-acre estate in Centre Island with a Georgian mansion, where owner Patricia Altschul’s mini horses gambol, has dropped from $19 million last fall to $15.8 million now.”
Posted on WSJ.com a short while ago.
A ‘Subprime’ Fund Is on the Brink
By KATE KELLY
June 16, 2007
Concerned that an internal hedge fund at Bear Stearns Cos. wouldn’t be able to meet a margin call, Merrill Lynch & Co., one of the fund’s biggest lenders, seized $400 million of its assets and is preparing to auction them off.
The auction, in the coming week, could trigger the fund’s dissolution — the second blowup in recent months of a hedge fund that made dicey bets on the market for risky home loans, known as subprime mortgages.
Ralph Cioffi and Bear Stearns made bets both for and against subprime loans — but a recovery in the market hurt.
The surprise move involving the two Wall Street firms came as the Bear fund’s managers, led by bond-sales veteran Ralph Cioffi, scrambled Thursday and Friday to sell hundreds of millions of dollars in bonds to satisfy demands for cash and assets from creditors and stave off liquidation. Mr. Cioffi’s group had successfully auctioned off almost $4 billion in high-quality mortgage bonds Thursday morning. Later that afternoon at Bear’s New York offices, the fund managers presented lenders with a 30-day plan for selling more assets, a blueprint for meeting new margin calls that appeared to have been well-received.
Merrill opted not to wait. Friday afternoon, the firm’s bond traders began circulating a list of securities that had served as collateral, or security, for the credit it had extended to the Bear fund, High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund.
Bids for the securities are scheduled to be negotiated starting at noon on Monday.