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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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I just realized I haven’t seen one of those annoying ‘refinance now’ payment ads on yahoo with the dancing fat chick and/or the grooving jazz guys in like a month. Guess the funding for that ad blitz dried up with the rest of the general market liquidity.
Ahhh…the simple things in life sometimes please me the most.
“…the simple things in life…”
Ah yes, the simple life…
http://www.allposters.com/-sp/The-Simple-Life-2-Road-Trip-Advance-Posters_i912087_.htm
They are still all over MSN.
The are still all over MSN.
oops…. sorry for the clutter
Is the wealth effect good for America? Bill Bonner raises some serious doubts.
———————————————————————————–
Zimbabwe Stock Market Booms As Robert Mugabe Prints More Money
Posted by Bill Bonner on Jun 4th, 2007
Money isn’t everything. We provide additional proof this morning by looking at a place with a lot of money - Zimbabwe. Nowhere on the entire planet is money piling up at a more rapid pace. The printing presses in that hellhole must be working around the clock. Consumer price inflation is increasing at an annual rate of 1,729%!
“My bad,” says Robert Mugabe, the nation’s democratically elected tyrant.
We look to Zimbabwe not merely for entertainment but for instruction. It shows us that not only is money not a good gauge of wealth and happiness, neither are asset prices. Rich Americans look at rising stock prices. ‘All is well,’ they say. ‘We’re getting wealthier.’ Poor and middle class Americans look at their house prices. ‘All is well,’ they say. ‘Our houses are worth twice as much as they were 5 years ago; we’re getting wealthier.’
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/zimbabwe-stock-market-booms/2007/06/04/
I was wondering if there are any laid off subprime industry employees on this blog who would like to talk about their experiences. The big commissions/bonuses, the liar loans, the sales tactics, the complicity of the flippers/FB’s in trying to get into an oversized loan destined for foreclosure. I bet there are some amazing stories to be told.
…laid off subprime industry employees on this blog who would like to talk about their experiences…”
That would be a really interesting and timely topic.
In particular, did any of you former “sub-primers” document
unethical / illegal tactics that you may have observed or
participated in?
Are there any attorneys on this blog that could comment
on these “sub-primers” potential legal exposure ?
I am sure there must be a whole Micheal Moore documentary
film worth of stories out there Let’s here them!
I have a special personal interest in all of this as I live in Irvine, Ca.
which, of course, is ground-zero for many of these (former)
sub-prime lenders.
I drive by the New Century building every day. Wonder when
they are going to take the sign down?
10 YEAR TREASURY RATE PREDICTIONS
Mortgage rates are still pretty tied to the 10YT. Going up, down, sideways?
I would expand this to address: 10 year treasuries; dollar appreciation/depreciation vs. other major currencies; inflation. THese things are all linked and it is very difficult to understand/predict potential interactions.
DESCRIBE YOUR DREAM HOME
When prices drop enough to warrant a purchase, what are you looking for in a home — neighborhood, size, lot size, style, features?
Great topic!
Seems like there are many posters who want the same thing…decent-sized lot, SMALLER house (no McMansions, please), energy-efficient & have some “green” technology like recycled water, geothermal heating/cooling, highly-efficient insulation, etc.
At least, that’s what we’re looking for. We’d also like very much to build our own house so we can create a layout that works for our family.
An organic garden would be nice, too!
I’m living in it, since I had the good fortune to buy pre-bubble.
It is a 17-foot wide brick rowhouse, with about 1,500 square feet plus an 850 square foot semi-finished basement. Not much excess space to clean. (When the kids are gone, perhaps we downsize to a condo.) Simple kitchen — linoleum, formica, natural oak. One and one-half baths.
We might install another shower in the basement when we rehab it — during the next recession when construction prices and contractor availability are sane. The basement could be rehabbed as a mother-daughter, but zoning will not allow it to be rented out — the 17 x 100 foot lot is too small for a legal two family.
Still, plenty of room to entertain in the railroad living room — middle room — dining room — kitchen on the ground floor. Kids hang out in the basement; some sit around on the rear patio and front porch. For that three times a year.
Very little maintenance outside, and no lawn to mow. Rear deck and brick patio, with some small dirt areas for flowers and a couple of small trees. Front porch — the only wood that needs to be painted — and raised cement front years, with planters and small garden areas for flowers.
There is a huge park three blocks away. Much bigger than any backyard. Block party once a year.
Limited heat loss with windows on just two sides. Ceiling fans instead of AC. All flourescent bulbs.
Subway down the block. No need for a car, but we have a ten year old one for weekends. Supermarket around the corner and two blocks away. Other stores and restaurants two blocks up. Kids walked to school — one now rides the subway to high school.
No cable. When I want to see a sporting event not on free TV, I walk 2 1/2 blocks to the local bar and watch it there.
All that’s missing is the solar panels.
Liabilities? The house has no garage, so the car is parked on the street, and has to be on the correct side when the street is swept or its a big ticket. A real pain, but if renting a car was easier, we wouldn’t need one.
Aside from the speculative cost of being there, this house minimizes both housing and transportation costs. Unfortunately, the price of the house has been bid up so high that it might be cheaper to get a McMansion, two Hummers and a Plasma Screen.
What about Zipcar or Flexcar? Isn’t that pretty easy? Less paperwork than getting a title at the DMV, I think.
Local Toyota dealership here does daily special on a small sedan — $19.95. Of course, this isn’t NY or NJ with their crazy tort laws.
How about a house built for your future as you age. Granite counters, stainless steel don’t mean jack. As you age you can’t climb up to that second floor as well, a wheel chair means 4 ft wide hallways, ramps, new types of showers to allow wheelchair access. You get the picture. I’ve gone through this with my parents and my wife’s parents. The best improvements for any home will be those to accommodate the elderly and energy efficiency and that includes location (near to transportation, dr offices, drug stores, markets, etc).
Bingo! THat is exactly what we are looking for… ANd you wouldn’t believe the extent to which builders balk at simple things like insulating a basement slab. The answer to everything is “that isn’t how we normally do things here.” One builder flat out told me “I don’t like to think too much,” regarding my plans for an energy efficient house. Yeh, like a ground source heat pump is a terribly novel and complex technology circa 2007.
small, easy to maintain house, one story, big enough lot for shade trees (not so close they threaten the house), energy efficient, no basement … close to transit, walking distance to shops, hopefully to groceries too
urban is okay b/c I have no kids … I just want trees, dammit. None of this concrete jungle bs.
Quiet neighborhood, first and foremost.
If things adjust to the point where a single story 2000sqft home with some backyard, 3bds, 2 baths, eat-in kitchen in a nice neighborhood in LA’s Westside for somewhere under 700K, I’m in the market. I would love the energy saving features, but I’m not sure you can get all that for that money here (I know it sounds ridiculous, but what can I say).
I would like to see a topic on housing related items that do not make sense. Things that make you go Ummm.
For example, my father is putting in a 70 foot block wall. The contractor is still busy and has lots of summer work lined up. Made me go Ummm.
I know a small cabinet worker who has lots of work. By now I thought the kitchen remodel stuff would have been over by now. Ummm
Have a friend who works in retail at a major mall store. Women’s shoe sales are still going strong. Ummm
Was with a friend at the BMW store. It was very busy on a Saturday. Ummm
I would like to see a topic on things that just do not make sense! Are we to early?
Local Home Depot is going great guns. I shopped there on a weekday around noon thinking it would be dead. Nope.
Right now I think weekdays around 9 am is the safest bet if I don’t want to deal with the nightmare of HD customer disservice.
I did post about local gourmet outlet folding, but all the other yuppie establishments, and especially the restaurants are doing solid business.
We do see more trucks and SUVs for sale around here though.
In my neck of the woods…
HD and Lowes are always empty
Never any lines at local chain restaurants, not even on Friday.
Tucson report: HD and Lowes stopped being busy places last year.
They’re still building new stores in Florida.
Wankers.
I accidentally posted this thread with a Thursday date, so I hope readers will find it now that I’ve moved it up. Here is a possible topic; the effect of suddenly higher interst rate.
‘A spike in residential mortgage rates is sending shock waves through a housing market that is already struggling both locally and nationwide, causing some buyers to drop out of deals and dashing hopes that the market is on the verge of recovery.’
‘Mortgage broker Michael Menatian, of Sanborn Mortgage in West Hartford, (CT), said he has already had one buyer back out of the market this week and is waiting to hear decisions from two others who are scrambling to see whether they can cover the costs of the higher mortgage rates. Other clients are switching from long-term, fixed-rate products to more risky adjustable-rate loans.’
‘It’s only been a few days, and already we are seeing the effect of the higher rates,’ Menatian said. ‘Buyers that are in the market, but unsure or on the edge of what they can afford - they’ve walked to the sidelines. This is going to hurt.’
‘It brought us over the edge in what we can afford. Two hundred dollars a month is a big difference,’ Beth Hough said Thursday - especially when offers for her house have been lower than anticipated. ‘Two months ago, we were OK. But now things have changed, and we are in a position where we have to pull out.’
I did the calculations and basically one point (6% to 7%) on a 30 year fixed with 20% down adds $25k to the effective cost of a $250k home. More expensive homes see a greater cost increase, less expensive homes less. For those with a large downpayment (e.g. 50%) and using a 15-year fixed, the increase in buying cost is minimal.
Assuming that most folks have little downpayment and max out on the home they can buy, higher interest rates significantly reduce my competition. Time to low ball!
“adds $25k to the effective cost of a $250k home.”
There is another way to look at this illustration Suppose a budget-constrained household could have ‘afforded’ a $250K home before the rate increase. Now they can only afford a $227K home — roughly a 10% haircut in their maximum purchase budget ($250K X 250/275 = $227K). If everyone in the market simultaneously faced the same tightening of their purchase budgets, then I guess that would translate into a prospective 10% drop in market values?
It should translate into less purchasing power, and a drop in prices, right? Unfortunately, people haven’t been purchasing based upon what they can afford, but rather on what they want. This disease hasn’t yet been eradicated.
FOR MATH GEEKS, ONLY — an explanation of how higher mortgage rates reduce purchase demand:
Let’s assume that every household has a monthly payment budget limit, even if it is not sustainable; call this amount P.
Also let a0 = initial mortgage commutation factor (which converts monthly mortgage payments into a home purchase) based on last year’s interest rate and a1 = commutation factor based on higher current rates.
Also, let P0 be the original mortage payment amount needed to buy a $250K home (as in the above example) and P1 the higher payment required to buy the same home at current interest rates.
The example given above effectively stated that
P0*a0 = $250K = P1*a1, where P1*a0 = $275K.
It follows that P1/P0 = $275/$250 = 1.1.
But if the most the hh could afford was (and still is) P0, then at the new interest rate, the most house they can buy is
P0*a1 = (P1/1.1)*a1 = (P1*a1)/1.1 = $250K/1.1 = $227K.
Economists would decompose the impact of this change in the relative price of a home into an income effect (real incomes fall when interest rates increase) and a substitution effect (to stay as well off as before, I might want to buy less house or no house given the new higher cost of buying one now), but the example illustrates exactly how the budget constraint tightens with higher rates.
The severity of the rate hikes will dictate the impact …..1/2 % will hurt but not cause a meltdown….If we get into the mid 7’s its fasten your seatbelt time particularly if jobless rate climbs into the 6’s….Valuations over the past few years have been established with historically low interest rates and gimmicks…Mid 7’s will wipe out those spiked valuations bringing chaos to the markets IMO….I hope it does not happen…It will not be fun no matter what position you are in…
The higher the interest rate rises with falling house prices, even if rents stay stable, the easier it will be for me to pay my rent and add to my savings. But what’s going to happen to those who need to cover housing costs by selling over priced illiquid assests (art, old cars, jewelry, baseball cards, sports memob’, etc)? Should make for interesting times ahead.
Cheaper comics again? Hell, yeah.
The thought of more comics getting canceled again sucks, though. The industry brings it on themselves, though, as they don’t have any trouble selling comics in Japan … they’re affordable and available in many more genres.
“If we get into the mid 7’s its fasten your seatbelt time”
Death by a thousand cuts or 1/4% FED rate increases is soooooooo streching the bungi cord…let this whole load fall on the weight of “over-their-head-in-debt” + “my-house-is-not -worth-what-I-paid-for-it-so-I-can’t-get-a-home-ATM-loan-anymore”
and put a final: “it’s-been-stab-to-death” story to Ben’s blog…
I say: Please… some how… someway… make interest rates go to 15%… then we’ll all really know what a…1,000,000 million dollar house is worth. The rest of home prices can fall… where they fall.
“make interest rates go to 15%”
No es necessito. A clear indication that rates are marching up and home prices are falling in conjunction with restoration of underwriting standards (income verification, demonstrated ability to save money, etc.) and downpayment requirements would easily lop off 50% from current bubble market prices before rates reached 10%.
Ben, love ya to death, but always found this thread title curious:
“Post Weekend Topic Suggestions Here!”
Initially, I thought that was for topics next week, or “post weekend.”
May I humbly suggest:
“Weekend Topic Suggestions!”
How about “When did the bubble start”?
I think it’d be great for people from all different markets to weigh in on when they think that prices became completely detached from fundamentals. When did real demand end, and speculative demand begin?
“I can’t believe someone wanted their house to look like that!” is always a fun topic.
Does this look more like a church or a school house to you? Everyone call Al now because it’s a great investment opportunity… priced under assessment.
http://tinyurl.com/2r7zaz
Looking ahead to 2008 and no immediate market bottom in sight, how about a topic on self-preservation for bitter renters - how to structure a lease so as not to get blindsided by a foreclosure or any other shenanigans while waiting it out in some FB’ers rental home.
I thought we had one more year myself before worry (in the current rental, which we had thought was free and clear with the current owner) - now landlord is complaining that the mortgage on his own (residence) home is going to 8.25% boo hoo - WTF? 2 homes, high paying job…After 25 years as a home “owner”, how hocked is this guy?
I’ve seen books for tenants on Nolo and Amazon, but they deal with the nuts and bolts of forcing SOB landlord to fix the water heater or getting your deposit back - nothing that reflects the increasing clout of prospective tenants or their increasing vulnerability - in many states - to near-instant eviction upon foreclosure of a rental property. Seems like that’s currently well under the public radar but bound to be a hot topic as speed of stuff hitting fan (in RE) accelerates.
Oh, and as an aside, in my area you can’t even monitor the Bankruptcy and Foreclosure listings online or by doorstep subscription without paying hundreds a year - the listings have to be published by law, but they don’t have to be published to a free or cheap newspaper, and most aren’t. That will leave the poorest most vulnerable to this kind of crap.
This is an important topic, I tried to rase this earlier, but none seamed to be interested.
There are multiple questions related.
1. How the lease aggreement shoul be structured to protect the renter from the landlord’s financial troubles?
2. Should we, the renters, run a credit checks on the landlords?
3. Should we insist that the landlord puts a security deposit in a bank, withdrowable by the renter in case the renter is forced to leave earlier?
All these need a discussion. May be we need to create a statewide renters association. We are running into times when financially sound renters have to deal with unreliable landlords.
” May be we need to create a statewide renters association. We are running into times when financially sound renters have to deal with unreliable landlords.”
Amen. And the reason no action has taken place is that not enough people have been burned yet. Within a year your local representatives will be dealing with just such protective legislation I’m sure.
This is a very important topic….
We are moving to central valley (nas lemoore)…and looking in Hanford and Lemoore. We locked into what seemed a solid house in Hanford…top neighborhood, 3300sqft home (we have 2 kids, 1 on way…no plans for stopping), did a 3 yr lease w/military clause, had it checked by a legal officer, paid our deposit and 1st month rent…$4400 total…tough to find a bigger rental here btw…besides the growing family, we do a lot of entertaining.
So, I arrive last Sunday, am meeting with the water guy to turn on the water (owner had it vacant…her mother was to move out from the bay area, but fell ill…brand new home), and a neighbor says he thinks it is in foreclosure and to go online. I go to Foreclosure.com, get the lender info, call…they say get your money back and don’t move in…it is going to auction. Meanwhile the movers are on their way, husband deployed, and I’m near tears of course…
I checked with legal, since she made the contract while under foreclosure it is null and void (as the lender said)…at least our stuff didn’t move in…I was to move it in this week, then fly back to the east coast to grab my kids from my sister’s and meet my husband when he comes home in 2 weeks, then we were gonna take a month to travel across country….if it goes to auction next month, we wouldn’t have been here to keep our stuff from being seized if evicted.
So this week, I cancelled utilities, been pursuing getting our money back (supposedly she wired it Thurs…we’ll see as it isn’t showing up yet), and looking for another rental…can’t find a decent option, either they are way too small (under or around 2000 sq ft & bad layouts), or near foreclosure. I leave Monday night. We arrive the beginning of August and our 3rd is due mid Sept….we might have 2 young children and baby living in a BOQ hotel room, what a nightmare!
So, as much as we hate to…we may be looking at buying, even though our gut says we may be landlords after leaving this base for a long time to come. Good news is we have a sizeable chunk to throw down…no more than $100,000 mortgage on a $400,000 home for us. And, as we are finding out, larger rentals are hard to come by near base in a nice neighborhood, so we shouldn’t have a problem renting it…
I’ve told the base housing office they need to advise people to do a search on any rental they might rent and check to see if the place is in foreclosure. I hope we can get our $4400 back, but at least in the meantime it isn’t crushing us since we have funds…there are some families that even if it was half that on a smaller home, that would send them to Navy relief and crush them for months.
Anyway, the lease does not protect you if it is in any stage of foreclosure during the time the lease is written from what I was told…you are then at the mercy of the next owner, who may opt to throw you out, or raise the rent…..so these days my advice is always do a foreclosure check before renting a property.
I’d like to know: Why is this blog so damn addictive? I keep trying to look away, but I fail.
I wish I knew … I managed to withdraw for a few weeks, but here I am again.
We definitely need to form a support group when the bubble finally peters out — maybe sooner? (Maybe this is the support group?)
Is there any real long-term value in studio or 1 bed room condos? The reason I pose this question is that I understand in a normal market it takes seven years of appreciation to cover transaction costs, but most people don’t want to live in a studio for seven years or one bedroom for that matter. Once normal market returns what will happen to these units? I assume there will come a point when they are no longer seen as a starter investment, at this point will there be much of a market for them at all? Especially the studios, I assume most people would rather rent a 1 br than buy a studio if they have to hold for 7 years just to break even. Also these are the most over built in that they were built to flip in many markets with no view of who an end user would be. What do you think, how bad will it get for 1br and studio condo owners? I would guess in some markets studios will be next to worthless.
This is a really good question.
Students and professionals who spend a lot of time on the road may not mind living in such small quarters - but couples, empty-nesters, even single folks like that extra bedroom (or half) for office, computer room, extra closet space, what have you.
Studios and 1 BRs in my region are mainly bought by investors to rent out.
I doubt that they are good investment as rentals in most areas, I doubt a condo owner can compete with building owners on rent price. These things strike me as doomed post bubble.
Studio flats will only ever sell in the heart of the metropolis … eg Tokyo, Manhattan, etc.
Tools. What tools is everyone using to track properties, rates, foreclosures, etc.?
I use Zillow for sales price info, redfin and Zip for listings, nothing suitable yet for foreclosures, and rate info I just pick up here and there as needed. CountryWide’s REO website is dog slow for me. I wish I could get info on the properties in my area that were financed with toxics over the last 5 years.
I’d like to see a discussion of what people think will happen with most of the vast oversupply of recently-built McMansions, especially in the new way-out-there developments.
Will they mostly be abandoned and/or collapse due to shoppy construction? What happens to nearby home-owners then?
Will the price end up so low (including an excess-maintenance-cost) that they will become the preferred starter homes for future first time buyers?
Will they be bought as tear-downs, to build smaller, more efficient (and better proportioned to the lot) homes?
Will they end up with large familes and/or large numbers of unrelated people sharing them?
Will they end up mostly Section 8 housing (aside, how many places have such a program), or be subdivided into low-income rentals?
How will they compare to the over-building of condos, which are much more easily converted into rental appartments?
Other possibilities, likely and unlikely?
The condos will be section 8.
The abandoned McMansions will be the next wave of tornado fodder … if we’re lucky.
Suggested topic: Are employers now starting to feel the fear?
I recently interviewed for a job at a mid-sized company, made it through to the end, and was told I had been selected as the top choice from among the candidates for the job. BUT, they are holding off on making a formal offer, apparently concerned enough about where business is headed that they are willing to lose job candidates while they hold off to reconsider hiring at all. I’ve also been getting a lot of recruiter calls lately and been told that many of the big law firms are staffing up their bankruptcy groups. This does not indicate confidence that the market is stable or trending upward, and the folks making hiring decisons at big firms are not idiots.
To what extent are we already starting to see accelerating effects of losing the housing/credit ATM in other sectors of the economy - manufacturing, retail, etc.?
Zero-downpayment mortgages, conundrumishly low asset yields, high home equity appreciation rates and cashout-ATM financing of the home equity wealth effect all provided disincentives to save money in recent years. Who wants to bother saving if you can buy a home with no skin in the game and use cashout-ATM financing to tap into a perpetual money pump?
Now that l-t interest rates have taken a hike and home prices are falling, will the U.S. savings rate swing out of its protracted period of negatives (dating back two years or so — for the longest period since the Great Depression)?
I believe this is a given, and it’s exactly why we’ll have a protracted downturn. I’ve always stated that if the government and it’s citizens all started acting fiscally prudent that we would have an immediate depression. Fortunately or unfortunately, it won’t happen that quickly
Is thanks due to the Bernanke Fed for maintaining a steady, ongoing controlled burn in the housing market without letting the rest of the U.S. economy go up in flames? Or am I speaking prematurely here?
IMO he’s making things worse by letting Wall Street play Icarus.
Yes, I am definitely addicted to this blog. Can’t stop.
Me too. It’s a funny kind of addiction. I do read other blogs, but in this one I read all the comments I can. It’s taking up way too much time….
Bildenbergers are angrily nattering away over gold prices. IMHO, if some conspiracy group is trying to manipulate inflation perceptions by keeping a lid on gold prices, they aren’t doing a very good job :-).
I personally have only one piece of advice for goldbugs: DON’T FIGHT THE FED.
“Yesterday, I queried what the lousy gold share action might mean. Now you know. There are some in our camp who believe these shares are manipulated along with bullion itself, while others are not so sure. The last two days left NO DOUBT in my mind it is the former. On Friday gold was slaughtered and the shares did not budge. Then gold rallies sharply on Monday. The shares rally at first, but then fail miserably to respond to the bullion strength. Today gold is mauled. The bullion banking gangsters are playing the shares like a fiddle and taking your investment money from you in the process.
“Gold was taken down $2 immediately after the Comex close yesterday and stayed that way through the London Fix, which came in at $652.80. Then, with the yield on the 10-year T note rising to 5.22%, the cabal’s hit men went after gold to calm down the increasing inflation fears, as they did on Friday. They did so despite the dollar hardly moving … pound higher, yen unchanged, and euro off only about .15.”
“The floor reported there was one huge, mysterious seller emanating from the electronic market again. Their “200 lot orders were hitting every bid.” When they let up, gold rallied $3. Then they started all over again.
“When the U.S. stock market, Dow down 90, began to react badly to the rising rates, gold was mauled further. The “gangsters” were not about to let the gold price hang in there with their beloved market under such pressure, better to kill the messenger of higher inflation, that being gold.”
http://tinyurl.com/2nhoe2
Cerberus is all over them U.S. automakers…
Cerberus sizes up Ford’s UK luxury duo
By John Reed and Jonathan Guthrie
Published: June 15 2007 22:02 | Last updated: June 15 2007 22:02
Cerberus, the private equity group that has just bought Chrysler, is now voicing interest in a possible bid for one or both of Ford Motor’s two UK luxury brands – Land Rover and Jaguar.
According to two people with direct knowledge of the matter, the buy-out group, which secured Chrysler last month for $7.4bn, has voiced preliminary interest in Ford’s sale of the two marques, for which other private equity groups and financial investors will also likely compete. “They are definitely one of the players in the game,” said one.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/10ab487a-1b6a-11dc-bc55-000b5df10621.html
How will the fraudsters feed their families now that the gig is up? What new schemes are they preparing?
I know a flipper who lives up the street. After the SD flipper game petered out, he married a 19 year old babe and started a second career as an adult photographer.