The Speculators Are Gone In Florida
The Sun Sentinel reports from Florida. “Turmoil in the housing market is swirling around an increase in troubled loans and a new threat, rising interest rates. Around the nation, late home-mortgage payments and adjustable-rate loans going into foreclosure hit all-time highs in the first three months of this year.”
“The problem is acute in Florida, which had the second-largest increase for new foreclosures through the end of March, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘That’s a leading indicator that problems are rising,’ said Doug Duncan, the organization’s chief economist.”
“Another negative: Huge inventories of homes are for sale in South Florida. The number of houses and condos on the market is so large that it would take almost three years to sell them all in Palm Beach and 31 months in Broward, if the pace of recent sales continues.”
“‘The speculators are gone, they left,’ said Chappy Adams, president of Illustrated Properties in Palm Beach County. ‘Not only did they stop buying but they pretty much put their properties on the market all at the same time.’”
“The most obvious trouble is in the subprime market, where 11.61 percent of all subprime loans in Florida are past due and 2.15 percent of subprime loans entered foreclosure during the first three months of the year. Another 6.29 percent are considered seriously delinquent, because payments are more than 90 days past due.”
“Those higher rates will also make it more difficult for troubled borrowers to refinance their mortgages. ‘If there are a lot of people out there who do have the ability to refinance, the time to do it is now,’ said Jim Dean of Trust House, an investment advisory firm in Fort Lauderdale.”
From Florida Today. “This year’s HomeBuyer Expo in Orlando could be a challenge for builders, lenders and others in the housing industry. Housing prices have dropped steadily in the past 1-1/2 years, although they are still high compared to other southern states; construction has slowed; and home insurance rates and property taxes have risen, spurring reports that some people are moving out of Florida.”
“‘As the housing market has cooled off, and the investors have left the market, and the subprime loans have dried up, people really should find a lot of bargains and concessions from sellers,’ said David Westcott, director of homeownership programs for the Florida Housing Finance Corp.”
“Lennar, which has been building several communities in Palm Bay and Viera, already has adjusted to the housing market slowdown. The focus is on ‘the greatest value we can offer,’ said Laureen Ramsey, Space Coast division president for Miami-based Lennar Homes. ‘We’re focused on bulk purchases and economies of scale.’”
The Voice of America. “Stockbroker Scott Brown of St. Petersburg, Florida, says the growth deceleration is mainly the result of weakness in the housing sector. Brown says home owners are seeing a painful correction from the buying frenzy that in many areas sent home prices soaring between 2000 and 2005.”
“‘Home prices in many areas may have doubled and now you’re seeing a 10 or 20 percent correction,’ he said. ‘It’s really going to affect recent homebuyers more than anything. If you bought a home in the last year or two, your net worth in that home is probably going to be down.’”
The Miami Herald. “Amid a weakening housing market, foreclosures in South Florida are mounting with staggering speed, they have tripled in Miami-Dade County and more than doubled in Broward County from this time last year. Since January, lenders have started to take over nearly 9,000 properties in Miami-Dade and close to 8,000 in Broward, with thousands more foreclosures pending from 2006.”
“Florida outpaced all but Nevada in new foreclosures from January through March. The surge is due, in part, to speculators now saddled with souring investments, but also to borrowers who got high-priced loans during the boom.”
“In Bunche Park, cardboard signs tacked on light poles offer reverse mortgages to the elderly and foreclosure rescue services to others. Piles of furnishings dot the streets, the evidence of evictions.”
“This ZIP Code, 33054, has one of the highest loan-delinquency rates in South Florida. The main reason lies in subprime loans, once touted as a blessing and now the curse of poor neighborhoods like this one.”
“Earlier this decade, financial institutions, protected by fast-rising property values, eagerly loosened lending standards and gave about $1.3 trillion in subprime loans to borrowers with less than stellar payment histories. Florida homeowners are shouldering about a tenth of that debt, more than any other state except California, according to data from First American Loan Performance.”
“Roughly 23 percent of loans in Miami-Dade are subprime, and 18 percent in Broward. In areas like Miami Gardens, home to Bunche Park, it’s more like 66 percent.”
“‘Some lenders try to find creative ways just to get the owners in the house, and they succeed,’ said Julene Wade, program director of Harvest Fire Homeownership Program. ‘Lenders don’t consider [that borrowers have to] put food on the table, and that property taxes and insurance are going to kill them.’”
The Herald Tribune. “The shareholders of Coast Bank of Florida sued first. Now, it’s the customers. Fifty borrowers filed lawsuits Thursday against Coast, saying the Bradenton-based bank schemed to defraud them on their home loans.”
“Sarasota attorney Alan Tannenbaum says he will file another 75 lawsuits for Coast borrowers who claim they are stuck with homes or lots that are worth less than what they owe on their mortgages. Most of his clients have stopped making payments on their loans, Tannenbaum said.”
“Bank spokesman Tramm Hudson said…the bank expects borrowers to pay their loans. ‘Obviously we’re not going to rescind any contracts,’ he said.”
“The bank made $110 million in loans to nearly 500 customers of Construction Compliance Inc., a now-bankrupt home builder in St. Petersburg. In one of the new lawsuits, Michael J. and Telma L. Dorcey of Tarzana, Calif., say they borrowed $228,600 to build a CCI home in North Port.”
“Coast disbursed $83,055 to CCI, but the company did no work on the Dorceys’ lot. ‘Somewhere between 80 and 100 of my clients have just lots,’ Tannenbaum said.”
The St Petersburg Times. “He’s down on the mat, he’s bloody, the fans are booing. But can the Tampa Bay area housing market rise from the arena as the Comeback Kid? You can bet the house on it, said Lawrence Yun, senior economist at the National Association of Realtors.”
“‘Five years from now you will be very happy you’re in this business and located in Tampa,’ Yun said over a brown-bag lunch to about 75 real estate agents.”
“In Yun’s view, rising incomes and declining home prices ought to have stimulated sales this year were it not for housing bubble scares in the media.”
“Yun was appointed last month as the top economic spokesman for the Realtors group. He succeeded economist David Lereah, discredited after maintaining rosy outlooks amid an increasingly troubled housing market and promoting his 2005 book, ‘Are You Missing The Real Estate Boom - Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through the End of the Decade.’”
“In one worst-case scenario, an economist suggested the gap between incomes and home prices would depress housing values 40 percent.”
“Yun scoffed at the idea: The real measure of affordability, he said citing a formula, is mortgage obligation relative to income. He clicked a slide showing Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater hovering at the national average. Much of California isn’t so lucky, nor is high-priced Miami and Naples.”
“Yun based his housing projections on a list of economic trends: speculators leaving the market, strong job creation, baby boomers buying second homes and reform, a slow process now under way, of Florida’s property tax and insurance systems.”
“On that last item, Yun predicted a ’sonic boom,’ should the state Legislature succeed in bringing insurance premiums back to earth.”
“The local housing market’s biggest problem is a record-high inventory of homes for sale. Listings hold about 40,000 houses and condos, quadruple the number of two years ago.”
“Ever optimistic, Yun suggested a way out of the thicket: Thousands of homes will peel off into the rental market, while others drop off the charts as owners wait out the slump. ‘In a job-growth area, people can hold onto the house without being desperate,’ he said.”
“Carlos Fuentes, the association’s elected president, urged member’s to spread the gospel according to Yun. ‘You need to know the facts,’ Fuentes said. ‘You need to know how to present them as well.’”
“While lawmakers were slapping one another on the back in Tallahassee on Thursday, pleased with the property tax reform they had wrought, the bill does next to nothing for those who are already carrying the biggest property tax loads in the state: landlords, business owners and snowbirds, those players say.”
“‘They’re beginning to call Florida the U-turn state,’ said Terri Noyes, a Massachusetts hotelier who owns a winter house and two rental properties on Bradenton Beach. ‘People come down here. They see the property taxes,, and they turn around and go home.’”
“Noyes saw the levy on a property in Bradenton Beach go up 313 percent, from $3,603 in 2002 to $11,279, last year. Another nearby property went up 284 percent from $4,288 to $12,219. The total increase comes to $15,607. With the rollback, Noyes’ tax bill would drop $2,396.”
“Noyes has only been able to raise rents by $50 per month on each residence, or $600 per year. ‘In the beginning we were breaking even on rent, but now we’re deep in the red and can’t give the property away,’ she said.”
“Two residences are assessed at $1.2 million, and Noyes initially listed them for sale at $895,000. She has reduced the price in two $100,000 increments to $695,000, and still no bites.”
“‘This is the worst place in the country to own property,’ Noyes said. ‘Investors are no longer coming down the highway. They have no interest in being here.’”
‘The slowdown in new home construction is affecting the construction of long-planned new roads. And so are higher gas prices. Projecting as much as $100 million less over the next five years in gas tax and impact fee revenues, County Engineer George Webb is suggesting the county scrap six major road projects and postpone numerous other road plans.’
‘Indeed, when figures on this year’s traffic counts are released later this month, Webb, a veteran of county government, said there will be something he’s never seen before: portions of county roads where traffic volumes actually decreased. ‘We had many locations where counts did go down,’ he said.’
—–“In one worst-case scenario, an economist suggested the gap between incomes and home prices would depress housing values 40 percent.”
“Yun scoffed at the idea: The real measure of affordability, he said citing a formula, is mortgage obligation relative to income. He clicked a slide showing Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater hovering at the national average. Much of California isn’t so lucky, nor is high-priced Miami and Naples.”——-
Notice the classic double talk, mixing some truth with some BS to make a bogus conclusion.
Affordability indeed has something to do with the relationship between mortgage obligation to income. No joke.
Then the BS- Florida is near the average ratio for the country or somesuch, neglecting to note that *nationally* the ratio of mortgage-debt is wholly screwed up relative to income. So in other words… Affordability nationally is shot to heck, but at least were around the average.
E.D.
Evildoc:
You are right on the money regarding this article! Yun is just a prototype of David L. spun off by the NAR. I question the businesss ethics of this organization and perhaps they should be investigated by congress.
I have lived in the Tampa Bay area for over 20 years. The area has always had the image of low wage jobs. Furthermore, wage increases in the area have not even come close to keeping pace with inflation, let alone the large run up in housing costs. The number of people moving out of the TampaBay area is now outpacing the number of people moving into the area. The $10 an hour and lower wage earners cannot find affordable housing. The $50,000 and up wage earners who have lost a job due to offshoring, reorganization or whatever cannot find or have difficulty finding comparible wages and often relocate out of state.
My message to the NAR: YOUR CREDIBILITY is GONE!!!
Same thing is happening in Santa Barbara, Ca. The 101 freeway, which runs along the coast and is the main traffic arterial for south Santa Barbara County has experienced a marked decrease in traffic volume and a measurable improvement in traffic flow. So many middle income workers have left the area that the freeway moves much better. Of course, Illegals continue to flood into California, but for the most part they ride the bus, walk or ride bikes. Our local MTD bus service has had a measurable increase in ridership in the low income areas of the lower eastside and lower westside of Santa Barbara with reduced ridership in the upper income areas.
All of this does not bode well for Santa Barbara and California. Middle and upper income people are leaving, poverty level illegals are increasing. Oh well, at least the freeway traffic has improved. Kind of like being happy that your hand got chopped off because your hang nail no longer hurts.
Traffic volumes would have to decrease about 50% (an exaggeration, but not much of one) to make the SB-Ventura area driveable. I’d like to see the same thing happen in Los Angeles. My fondest hope is two fold: People can’t afford houses in So Cal so they pack up and leave. Or, houses are so much cheaper elsewhere that they sell their houses here, and pack up and leave. If we could just get about 10-15% of the population out of here, it would be a much nicer place to live.
Maybe we could round up the illegals and ship ‘em home while we’re at it…
About a much chance as a one-legged man in a butt-kick’n contest.
I pray every day for higher gas prices. $15/gallon gas out to clear those freeways right up.
This should make you happy:
http://tinyurl.com/25p7kn
“Maybe we could round up the illegals and ship ‘em home while we’re at it…”
Yes, because all our problems would be solved if we could just get rid of those damn illegals… always flipping houses and creating this bubble.
So who will be buying all those empty houses? Speculators? Flippers? Nope! This downturn in real estate is worse than the late 70’s and early 80’s housing crunch. It will take several years for a rebound. As far as the illegals are concerned, they are consumers. They are using viable resources such as water, power, sewer, health care, all on the taxpayers dollar. I don’t want to sound like a doomer, but I can see us ALL being taken down fast…and soon.
“‘The speculators are gone, they left,’ said Chappy Adams, president of Illustrated Properties in Palm Beach County. ‘Not only did they stop buying but they pretty much put their properties on the market all at the same time.’”
It’s the return of…CAPTAIN OBVIOUS! I thought he just did cell phone commercials…hmmm
‘but they pretty much put their properties on the market all at the same time.’
This smacks of Celebrity Poker - they are ‘All In’.
Ummm… If they are selling their homes, they haven’t left the market… Definitely a captain obvious statement.
Missed the point too… they’ll be in this market for years.
Got popcorn?
Neil
The banks have left that market and turns out the speculators weren’t using their own money.
Banks got kind of screwed here and there and got out of the game.
Funny how the credit contraction works.
Smacks of strip poker, too. They are all in, swimming naked, and the tide is going out.
I love that quote from Buffet!
“You never know who’s been swimming naked until the tide goes out.”
Everything is a cycle (like tides). We’re off high tide, but low tide isn’t for 24 to 36 months.
Got popcorn and a swim suit?
Neil
“In Yun’s view, rising incomes and declining home prices ought to have stimulated sales this year were it not for housing bubble scares in the media.”
Holy crap. This is the guy who replaced Lereah!! Why did they bother gettign rid of Lereah if Yun is saying the same stuff?
slow book sales
old wine in new bottles.
You can’t honestly have expected any different could you? Of course he’s a cheerleader. That’s what the NAR is all about. That’s what being a Realtor(tm) is all about. Happy, happy, cheer, cheer. Yun is exactly what I expected.
Still, you’ve got to love the article where he’s quoted. It seems like the writer was subtlety mocking Lereah and Yun with comments like, “He succeeded economist David Lereah, discredited after maintaining rosy outlooks amid an increasingly troubled housing market and promoting his 2005 book, Are You Missing The Real Estate Boom - Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through the End of the Decade.”
The author didn’t have to quote the subtitle of Lereah book. It seems like he put that in their to emphasize the word “discredited.”
They needed a new name to apprear on papers as if the new name had automatic credibility. It turns out the new credibility, if any, had run quickly to negative.
New sales spin doctor hiding under the title of economist!
lower rents showing in CPI already- all they have to do is send the price checks out to the new home areas, what’s stopping them
= no inflation
Someone was asking about St. Augustine Beach the other day. Was down there yesterday. Typical: Reasonably nice 2/2 1160′ ft. FSBO on tiny lot two blocks from beach $280K. Probably could have sold just north of $300K in late ‘05 early ‘06. This is basically what I’m seeing in smaller, older SFH: offerings down around 10% from peak, market probably still has some support 15-20% down from peak. (These houses approx. $150K in 2002, $80K in 1998.)
BUT, rental on same is only $1050 to $1200, slightly more for winter only rental. Does this makes sense? No way. This is why I say that the more prices fall the more overpriced they will appear, as the whole concept of reselling at a profit fades away. Remember how absurdly overpriced AMZN was at 300 after it fell from 600?
Anybody who pays more than $175K for this house is going to wish they’d waited. Prices have a LONG way to go.
Also, noticed crowds in St. Aug. proper were a little thinner than the last couple trips. Cruising around you see more commercial spaces for rent and get the distinct impression that all the easy money has been made - that it’s going to be a bit more of a battle for the restaurants and shops. Nothing dramatic, just a little softening.
My perception: easiest money still to be made in Florida is being a local government employee with a lot of seniority.
“Cruising around you see more commercial spaces for rent and get the distinct impression that all the easy money has been made”
See the same thing in Pinellas County. There is an increasing amount of comercial space that now sits empty. There are several flooring/tile type places that have recently closed down as well as some furniture stores. Some of these were located in new buildings that are now empty. There is a fruniture store around were I live ‘Ballagio furniture” that I expect will close soon as there is never any one at that place when I drive by and they have had alot of big sales recently that did not appear to get much traffic. It has been open for about 2 years.
Also to note the county health department has had a budget cut of $600,000 a cut also to the police and fire departments (not sure how much) and much talk that there will be many other budget cuts to govt. agencies in the county. So it would appear that officials see what is comming down and I think that it must be because they are not seeing the revenue from property taxes comming in although I have not heard anything that would confirm my suspicions. I would guess that if you are not going to pay the mortgage you sure as heck would not be paying taxes!
Robert-in-Florida, I used to go down 66th to SPC. I taught at the St Pete/Gibbs campus on 5th. I remember passing a walled off condo development that was right in the middle of the most obnoxious commercial area in the whole county other than “dump road”. It was on the right hand side as you go south. I remember seeing for sale signs all over the place. What is the condition of that development? Did they ever get around to burning the place down for the insurance?
Tx,
Roidy
P.S. I enjoyed living there for the 1st 5 years. The second 5 was a nightmare.
Not sure exactly the one you are talking about, but they have put up several town house developments in the area in question that were put up in former ratty trailer parks. The lots are narrow and are just about one street with townhomes on one side and very small patch of grass out back. These have gone up in the last 2 years. And yes they are located in an industrial area with comercial businesses on either side. Every time I drive by I can not fathom the reason that you would buy in that location and pay $225,000 for them, go figure. At the very least they do look better than the trailers that once occupied the area. Also to note (because you know the area) the Golden lantern trailer park (across from the flea market) has just recently started to be taken down. Will be interesting to see what happens and if anything actually gets built. Whatever it is it will be located in an area where everything around it is sketchy at best, and on a busy road to boot.
Ditto on the last bit. Senior employees get paid well (from the days when they had to provide few services and money just came in, so they got paid pretty well) and they do little work (institutional intransigence). Of course, one cannot become a senior sinecure now!
Also, with budget cutbacks, they are forcing many of these folks into retirement.
“While lawmakers were slapping one another on the back in Tallahassee on Thursday, pleased with the property tax reform they had wrought, the bill does next to nothing for those who are already carrying the biggest property tax loads in the state: landlords, business owners and snowbirds, those players say.”
“‘They’re beginning to call Florida the U-turn state,’ said Terri Noyes, a Massachusetts hotelier who owns a winter house and two rental properties on Bradenton Beach. ‘People come down here. They see the property taxes,, and they turn around and go home.’”
I love it..the U-Turn State..here in GA where I just moved..residents all know about Fl…and the stupid lawmakers think that a couple of bucks back on property taxes is going to be the save all of Florida..I can’t wait to read the headlines in the next coming months…when they see that their property tax reform is going to make NO DIFFERENCE in the market..it will be a display of “SHOCK AND AWE”
This is great news. Usually we only get to celebrate in April, as we see the car carriers full of snowbird cars head North. Is there a webcam on the GA-FL border, so we can watch people turn around? We can make a drinking game out of it - one shot per car.
From one native to another:
“What makes a Floridian smile with glee?”
A: the thought of 100,000 New Yorkers headed back home with a Canadian under each arm!
Talked to a neighbor who works for a bank or title company, I should have specified for clarity, but the point is that she was telling me that every single day she transfers titles from Florida residents to out of state locations in Georgia or the Carolinas or some other state and she said that she has not been transfering any new titles from other states into Florida at all. I asked her, “you mean zero?” and she said, “Yes, zero, a lot of people are leaving and no one is coming in.”
Got that correct..in my new development of only 42 homes I have 3 other fellow South Floridians moving in..10% of the community..so far
It sounds like a full-tilt exodus is occurring, but the Florida Today writer isn’t aware:
“…construction has slowed; and home insurance rates and property taxes have risen — spurring reports that some people are moving out of Florida
Some people…like a couple dozen or so? OK no need to panic, folks. It’s just some people that are leaving.
(Excuse me, I think the fillings in my teeth are trying to get my attention…)
Tell him to stand at the FL border and count the rental truck scrossing the line..he may get dizzy after 10 min..ten run over and watch for the truck coming in…he can take a nap and not miss anything…
Yes, just visit the parking lot of the Georgia Welcome Center on I-75…
I was driving Arizona from San Diego in 2005 and was pulled over by a cop. We talked for about a half hour on the side of the freeway about housing, he brought up the fact that people were leaving CA in droves and that jobs were available driving U-Hauls back to CA because nobody was driving the other way.
A few well placed calls to some moving companies in Florida might yield some interesting numbers.
Talked to a neighbor who works for a bank or title company, I should have specified for clarity, but the point is that she was telling me that every single day she transfers titles from Florida residents to out of state locations in Georgia or the Carolinas or some other state and she said that she has not been transfering any new titles from other states into Florida at all. I asked her, “you mean zero?” and she said, “Yes, zero, a lot of people are leaving and no one is coming in.”
Vehicle registrations and titles are down for people relocating to Florida.
No problem. rich immigrants from Haiti and Cuba will buy up all those luxury condos and McMansions
any one familiar with the Boynton Beach area - looking for an update on the Canyon Isles & Canyon Lakes new home communities. Are they underwater yet?
Sure, if the new tax bill goes through, taxes will roll back, temporarily, but the cap will be removed, so they can then skyrocket. Investors won’t care, because they can unload their junk before this happens (sound familiar?), but anybody staying in his home will be in for a much worst time down the road. Eliminating Save Our Homes will end up costing everyone far more in the long run, because cities, counties, and the state will never cut back on spending. I believe only home-owners should even be allowed to vote on this, and no outside lobbies should be permitted to get involved. Of course, they will.
As for NAR’s new raving lunatic, notice that the realtors are hanging on his every insane word, calling it the new gospel. This entire group needs to be rounded up and hosed down. They’ve been hosing everyone else for years.
They passed an amendment that will let people keep SOH if they want, even if the new deal would (initially) give them lower taxes. Never in a million years would it pass without that amendment, may not pass anyway.
“They passed an amendment that will let people keep SOH if they want, even if the new deal would (initially) give them lower taxes. Never in a million years would it pass without that amendment, may not pass anyway.”
But if you sell your home you lose SOH. And revert to the new deduction law. So eventually SOH will be history and there will be nothing to stop uncontrolled tax increases. I seriously question if this can pass in that it now takes 60% of the voters to pass an amendment to the constitution.
Right, you lose SOH when you move no matter if this passes or not. I agree with you that it will probably not pass. I’ll probably vote against it because I want to decrease development and this might increase it, if only a little and for a short time. Shoot, I want NO development.
There you are, Incredulous! I’ve been looking for you. Did you read my response to your post in the last Florida thread?
Hi Palmetto. No, I didn’t. When was that?
The last Florida thread there was, before this one. Couple of days ago.
I don’t know whether you’ll laugh or get mad at me, but it was the one where you were surprised by my attachment to Florida and I took the position you were a closeted Florida fan at heart. Just joshing with you.
I’ll have to check it out. NO, I’m not a closeted Florida fan, though. I like the beaches, and the summer storms, but that’s about it. Tampa has got to be one of the grossest places on Earth, though I’l grant you Gainesville is actually far, far worse.
I would like to escape to Santa Fe.
Okay Palmetto, I read what you wrote about Tampa and my suppose fondness for it, and you’re wrong. Those are not fond memories; it’s just that compared to now, the place was less horrible.
As for–was it “Moman?” (forgive, I didn’t write his name down) and his comments on Hyde Park, the “This Old House” reference is exactly what I’ve been yelling about since “This Old House” came on PBS, and fools rushed in and started buying up everything in Hyde Park. Yuppies are just revolting. And yes, they all walk their dogs now, but back in the ’80s or ’90s the Hyde Park Garden Club in its nauseating newsletter asked everyone to keep their dogs inside, off their lawns, because they “spoil the ambiance.” Now all the yuppies run on Bayshore with their poor dogs in tow, trying to complete three tasks (increasing self-beauty, finding dates, and dog walking) in one swoop. Veterinarians tell them never to do this, because dogs don’t have sweat glands (except, maybe on their paws???) and can drop dead from head stroke. Also, the sidewalk is extremely hot. But, the stupid Yuppies are too selfish to put their dogs’ welfare first.
Almost all of the Yuppie guys in Hyde Park shave their legs (to show off their alleged muscles, however unattractive), and they all wear, pardon the expression, Birkenstock’s (which is why I can often be found vomiting in the bushes). They also dye their hair CONSTANTLY, in terror of a gray strand, though the ravages of sun exposure do not seem to worry them.
Mothers and fathers running with babies in carriages is another Hyde Park phenomenon, second only to running with dogs. What fun humans. I’ve never seen such slavish conformity in my life, even in high school. I actually feel very sorry for them.
haha…hahahaha
too funny
Yuppies are just revolting.
but, but…they carry Fendi spy bags!!!
Actually, I run on Bayshore, sans pet. Back when I was unmarried, I got no attention, but now I know it was because my legs are not shaved.
Are you a savage? This is TAMPA!!!
The amendment also lets city governments decide if they want to reject the roll back. The mayor of Jacksonville has already come out and said that he and the JAX city countil would reject the roll back and I’m sure other mayors / city councils are saying the same thing. So, Florida homeowners would lose SOH and not get the tax savings. I’m not sure why anyone wold vote for this amendment.
Yun expects everyone to believe that an adjustment in homeowner’s insurance will cause a sonic boom in sales? For argument’s sake let’s say it’s 1000 bucks/year–that’s going to restart the market? Forget about it.
The only “sonic boom” that’s happening is from the moving vans speeding across the border.
Yun tells a brown-bag lunch group of realtors that in five years they will be very happy that they are in the real estate business and located in Tampa. What? Five years? What happened to 1Q08, Larry?
Our NAR Yun boy AND a bag lunch group of realtors ?
May these all these HUNGRY realtors always EAT SO WELL.
Regardless of his “RE Working Tour” BS…I have a very strong Feeling that Yun plans to EATS A LOT HELL of a LOT BETTER than most of them
The people who can manage to stay around in 5 years will probably be happy, so I will agree with Yun.
Just my surmision, but out of 5 realtors, 1 will make it and 4 were doing it as the ‘johnny-come-lately’ career. Of those 4 JCLs, 2 will wind up working as forclosure experts and 2 will be back to McDonalds flipping hamburgers.
Hey Trump just left Tampa..abandoned the city and left them shaking over losing the $2Million dollars they were suppose to get from the state for shops and attractions built around his condo project..but hey those local realtors know more than Trump’s Harvard/Wharton Financial Advisors and Lawyers..
Trump’s got no staying power and now seems a little desperate, chasing after whatever hot money he can find:
http://www.condohotelcenter.com/industry-news/in92.htm
Wow! This Florida report is chock-a-block with good stuff:
“Florida, which had the second-largest increase for new foreclosures through the end of March, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘That’s a leading indicator that problems are rising,’ said Doug Duncan, the organization’s chief economist.”
Gee, ya think?
‘If there are a lot of people out there who do have the ability to refinance, the time to do it is now,’ said Jim Dean of Trust House, an investment advisory firm in Fort Lauderdale.”
I guess if there’s only a few, they should hold back, eh?
“The focus is on ‘the greatest value we can offer,’ said Laureen Ramsey, Space Coast division president for Miami-based Lennar Homes. ‘We’re focused on bulk purchases and economies of scale.’”
Give my regards to Mike Morgan, Laureen!
“If you bought a home in the last year or two, your net worth in that home is probably going to be down.’”
Really? I thought real estate only goes up.
“Piles of furnishings dot the streets, the evidence of evictions.”
When does that start happening here on the West Coast of Florida? For a “stuff vulture” like me, that’s paradise.
“Harvest Fire Homeownership Program”.
Unfortunate name. Conjures up images of insurance arson.
“Yun said over a brown-bag lunch to about 75 real estate agents.”
What, no catered stone crabs?
“Yun predicted a ’sonic boom,’ should the state Legislature succeed in bringing insurance premiums back to earth.”
Man, now I KNOW this guy is a tool. Shows he knows NOTHING and can’t even access the information to analyze. Somebody forgot to tell him the Florida Legislature already shot its wad on the insurance issue and succeeded in putting the taxpayer on the hook for reinsurance. The only “sonic boom” that will be heard is the sound of the Florida Treasury collapsing after the next hurricane.
“‘This is the worst place in the country to own property,’ Noyes said. ‘Investors are no longer coming down the highway. They have no interest in being here.’”
You tell ‘em, Noyes. The Emperor has no clothes.
“Yun based his housing projections on a list of economic trends: speculators leaving the market, strong job creation, baby boomers buying second homes and reform, a slow process now under way, of Florida’s property tax and insurance systems.”
“On that last item, Yun predicted a ’sonic boom,’ should the state Legislature succeed in bringing insurance premiums back to earth.”
A ’sonic boom’ is a shortlived loud popping sound…
Can we have the old Shill back?
“…speculators leaving the market, strong job creation, baby boomers buying second homes…”
speculators leaving the market, OK we’re with you on that one Larry… Strong job creation, don’t know about that one - is there another Sea World on the boards?
But your third trend: Baby Boomers. Shame on you Larry, shame shame shame. Can not believe you even attempted to put over that old saw.
Oy.
“But your third trend: Baby Boomers…”
Baby boomers are waiting this housing mess out. Where it’s cheap is where they’ll end up. Could still be FL…but I doubt it highly. Arizona ran up hard and will crash hard. Probably in the end they’ll get those chasing the warm weather.
Arizona is crashing hard. And, speaking of hard crashes, house sold in the next block for $229k last month. Couple of whizbang real estate investors bought it.
They told the lady across the street that they were going to build a guesthouse behind the main house, then, well, we were surmising that the property would be put back on the market for much more than $229k.
We saw a couple of dumpsters fill up with stuff from the back yard — including the remains of a shed/workshop that the previous owners had fixed up quite nicely. This was where the fabled guesthouse was to go.
But then we saw the work slow down, then stop. Money problems, I suspected.
Turns out that my theory may well be right. The front yard is now sporting a For Rent sign. Mind you, house rents in this area usually run between $750-$950 per month, and there are a lot of places to choose from.
Something tells me that they’re trying to charge a boatload of rent to make up for the fact that they made a poor buying decision. And that just doesn’t fly in the Tucson rental market.
And that’s the real estate report from Tucson, brought to you by Arizona Slim.
Arizona, hope you are OK and staying well. I’ve been reading that Tuscon is really taking it on the chin in the smuggling (human and drug) wars. I don’t know if the media is being over-the-top, but it sounds pretty ugly.
Thank you for your kind thoughts, Palmetto. There is indeed smuggling and an active drug trade here. But the good news is that you can, to a certain extend, remain safe if you are not personally involved in such things.
However, there is that element of randomness. Innocent bystanders can and do get caught in the crossfire. And innocents can be victims in crimes involving mistaken identity.
” innocents can be victims in crimes involving mistaken identity. ”
Not just from the criminals, but from the police, too.
‘Arizona Slim: Arizona is crashing hard.’
Amen brotuh Slim!
Left Tucson in disgust in ‘06.
Betw. ‘03- beg. of ‘06 I’ve been outbid by Clownifornian greedy equity locusts every step of the way.
‘I’ll be bach’ with a vengeance in July (new job).
Lowballed 300K on a 499K (an underwater owner/agent - got the grubber stunned like a bird that has just flown into a windowpane)
Dropped in Tucson last month and boy, you could smell the desperation in the air.
LIErah has property ion FL did he buy in 05 ?
book research an all
last i checked, all his props were up in dc area
Lereah has properties in both locations.
I still think the NAR is going to bail out Lereah on all of his RE speculations; but quietly, maybe even under the table; and they may have already done this.
Got 10% down?
“Bank spokesman Tramm Hudson said…the bank expects borrowers to pay their loans. ‘Obviously we’re not going to rescind any contracts,’ he said.”
But of course banks and corporations can rewrite their contracts and obligations to their employees at will via bankruptcy, sale or whatever else will get the deed done.
It’s like this, Tramm, the borrowers didn’t expect Coast to freely disperse their funds to the contractor who never actually built anything.
BTW, Tramm Hudson lost a particularly vicious primary battle to Vern Buchanan, who is now happily ensconced in Washington.
“Earlier this decade, financial institutions, protected by fast-rising property values, eagerly loosened lending standards blah blah blah.
-Bingo! The institutions thought that they were protected by fast rising values. The word fast connotes a boiler room.
And down the stretch they come!
Florida has a nice lead, but is obviously tiring from being a frontrunner, and come from behind California is 10 lengths back, albeit with a full head of steam and foreclosure notices allowing it to gain on the sunshine state, with every stride…
Here comes the wire~
Photo Finish
Please hold all tickets.
“Earlier this decade, financial institutions, protected by fast-rising property values, eagerly loosened lending standards and gave about $1.3 trillion in subprime loans to borrowers with less than stellar payment histories. Florida homeowners are shouldering about a tenth of that debt, more than any other state except California, according to data from First American Loan Performance.”
” Florida homeowners are shouldering about a tenth of that debt, more than any other state except California, according to data from First American Loan Performance.”
Yep, Florida wannabe Cali, and is trying with all its might and main to top California at something. And we’ll do it, too, you’ll see. We’ll beat Cali at foreclosures and sanctuary, by God. And we’re going for that interstate gridlock trophy. The light rail and public trans folks are getting a good browbeating from the beltway gang. We’ll put our fires up against yours anyday. Our hurricanes up against your earthquakes. We’ll have our own derricks offshore soon, too. And don’t forget our gangs. I think we’re gaining on you there, too.
Yun is an idiot.
No, he is a responsible economist looking out for the interest of the little guy trying to own the American dream….bwahaahahaahaha….hard to keep a straight face while typing that.
Yun is not an idiot but rather a soulless, spineless, shill douche bag who sells his opinions to the highest bidder and wipes feces all over his degree with each instance.
I have a PhD in a rigorous scientific discipline (physics). People with these accomplishments should restrict themselves to sober, thoughtful, considered, analysis. Dr. Yun may well be right in his outlook. I don’t know. The tone of his presentation is questionable. We need clear analysis and explanations these days. We only seem to get hyper-spin of the “it’s great” or “look out below” variety. In the end, we make decisions based upon partial falsehoods (i.e. spin). This is worse than making decisions based on outright lies.
Roidy
Oh great, a physicist. Quantum dynamics was bad enough, but at least you can grasp the concept and maybe even run through the mathematics that describe a simple atom like hydrogen. Now we’re on to string theory and nobody can explain that in simple terms and forget doing the math - you need 23 dimensions to explain an electron. I think physicists and real estate agents have a lot in common - they are trying to complexify the universe with babble talk to advance their professions
Hey, don’t paint us physicists all with the same brush. Some of us (especially experimentalists) would love to know what the theorists are smoking…
Wait a few years, maybe we will reassign string theorists to the mathematics department. Hehehe.
OT: Hey! I like theorists. Some of my best friends are theorists.
Anyway, how did “string theory” get the status of a theory? It’s not a theory. It’s not even wrong as they say. As you say, I am but a lowly experimentalist who loves thin films and other grubby stuff.
Roidy
P.S. Send the string hypothesists to the NAR.
P.S.S. Go ‘Noles
Let’s face it, hookers are more honorable than these so called experts and analysts. At least they don’t claim to be Sunday school teachers, and I hear that what you see is pretty much what you get!
This only goes to prove that educated people are just as willing to lie as the uneducated. His job is to lie
Does anyone have any information the new home projects in Boynton Beach called Canyon Isles and Canyon Lakes? Do you know if prices are coming down there?
Are you serious? Canyon anything in Florida is a JOKE! Unless you’re talking condo canyons.
no serious, just tracking it - someone bought in late 2005 for 840k, wondering how far underwater they are. Do you know if there are any foreclosures in the development? still building?
I’m way over on the other side of the state, so I have no idea. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were still building, still a lot of that going on. I feel like I’m living in a nut house.
no serious, just tracking it - someone bought in late 2005 for 840k, wondering how far underwater they are.
Wait until August/September, that is the peak of the hurricane season. One big hit to Florida and not only will they be physically underwater, but their $840K investment will now be worth 140K! Ouch!
canyon lakes - bonyton
730,000 purchased - 550,000 appraised
all of south florida is upside down.
p.s. dont have to cut taxes when house values are dropping every day
Well, Floridia and Greed finally did it. The entire state is one monster HUNGRY Alligator Farm.
Phew… I’d hate to be a little plump chicken down there at show time.
” Yun said over a brown-bag lunch to about 75 real estate agents….”
2005 - FAR dinner catered at swanky resort
2006 - FAR buffet dinner in Denny’s Restaraunt
2007 - FAR brown-bag lunch in empty building
2008 - FAR gourmet, road-kill armidillo barbeque at I-95 underpass…
good one, gsinbe
2009 - FAR goes Cannibal
Trump sells pay per view tickets!
Excellent!
2010 - FAR lunch canceled when Florida Burger King employees can’t all get breaks at the same time.
2010 - Far moves to Georgia due to lack of food in Florida.
I realized yet another thing about the FL scene that annoys me: all of the people that are now crying about SOH portability and want to downsize… guess what? SOH works exactly like it’s supposed to. You can’t keep gettin’ a “low tax card” every time you feel like moving.
I’m not troll-baiting and I have no opinion of SOH either way. I’m just getting sick of seeing those people on the news.
Was the underpass feast catered by “Skink.”
Skink: a character (a Florida governor who went nuts and disappeared in mid-term) in Carl Hiaasen’s novels who feasted on road kill.
“‘The speculators are gone, they left,’ said Chappy Adams, president of Illustrated Properties in Palm Beach County. ‘Not only did they stop buying but they pretty much put their properties on the market all at the same time.’”
At least the language is correcting and the media is starting to call these people what they are: “speculators” rather than investors.
Although it seems to me that speculators are still heavily participating in the Florida market, just on the other side of the table. Take the speculators (and all their properties) out of the picture and Florida real estate probably looks a whole lot more normal.
On the plus side, Florida is now well prepared for the next round of hurricanes. Forget about FEMA trailers. When the next Florida city gets wiped out, Florida will be all ready for refugees with millions of vacant properties scattered around the rest of the state.
Reminds me that I read somewhere that Tampa is the 2nd most at-risk major city in the US for hurricanes after New Orleans. New Orleans is, of course, still #1 as nothing the’ve done post-Katrina has really made the city safter than it was pre-Katrina.
“Reminds me that I read somewhere that Tampa is the 2nd most at-risk major city in the US for hurricanes after New Orleans.”
Yes, I’ve seen models as to what would happen if a Cat 4 hurricane headed up the mouth of Tampa Bay. Water all the way to 1-75 to the east. To the west, wipeout to the shores of Pinellas.
I wonder how my old buddy is liking his move to Tampa now….hmmm. Last I talked to him he got out of tech to do real estate in the Tampa area, and his wife got out of the tech business also to help him with the real estate. I can see nothing going wrong there now with that happening, I am sure he is just loving life out there right now.
On a side note, I truly wonder how many people are praying FOR hurricanes now?
More than you know are “praying” for a storm to hit outside their county to “make” buyers come in…
This is no joke, and not really being reported. I’m in New Orleans, and a decent tropical storm would flood the city today as bad as katrina.
RE is a coin-flip here. On the one hand, there is a legit shortage of housing, but on the other is the slow realization that New Orleans really did die on Aug 29 ‘05. Whatever is eventually built here may be called New Orleans but won’t be.
can we get our 120 billion back ?
us taxpayers
Did you see the USA Today front-page story about FEMA trying to get back $485M it said it overpaid in NO?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-06-14-fema-overpayments_N.htm
Airstreams for everyone!
Where do you see them “heavily” participating?..I don’t see that at all..if you mean “foreclosure” bargains..well..they are not out there in South Florida..even REO’s are not being given away….
Tampa has not had a direct hit in what, eighty years or more? I hope it never has one; the whole place, or most of it, is at sea level, and built out of particle board and stucco.
Reminds me that I read somewhere that Tampa is the 2nd most at-risk major city in the US for hurricanes after New Orleans.
You are right. All of the major weather researchers, etc. has said Tampa is #2 for Gulf Hurricanes. The 2nd tropical storm of 2007 went right over Tampa. That is a warning shot over the bow of the Tampa ship! The next shot will sink Tampa RE.
You are correct. I had to smile when I read in the paper that Tampa General Hospital is stormproofing its windows to withstand winds over 120 mph. That facility is on Davis Island, and even a minor storm surge will cut off access. I’ve seen a graphic showing that a major storm surge would put the first two floors underwater.
Tampa is not like New Orleans. The most vulnerable neighborhoods here are some of the richest. If we had a Katrina event I would expect anarchy beyond what we saw then.
Yunrinthians 8:24
“Carlos Fuentes, the association’s elected president, urged member’s to spread the gospel according to Yun. ‘You need to know the facts,’ Fuentes said. ‘You need to know how to present them as well.’”
I sent this letter to “In the bag” Gary following the posts about his ‘forecast’. I am waiting to see if anyone from his office will respond/even acknowledge.
Gary. I am a former California and Orange County resident. I made what seemed to be pretty good money working for Pacific Bell/SBC during 16 years in California. I made on average about $70,000 per year. When I got married, my wife made about $55,000. Together that appeared to well above the average income for CA. I couldn’t conceive of paying $400K for any home, yet alone $623K. Alas, I never purchased a home in CA (was in the Bay area from 1996 to 2006). We were finally disgusted with CA and I was burned out on my job. We moved to Albuquerque, bought a nice home for under $300K (2700 sq ft, one of best neighborhoods, safe). Even paying a fixed 30 yr, best interest rate note takes enough chunk out ($2200/mo) of our $100K income. This house would have been $1.3M in Irvine or East Bay area where I last lived. People like me are leaving CA in drove. The best proof is Uhaul one way rates. Lake Forest CA to Albuquerque NM $2176 and reverse was $360. That means 8 trucks leaving your area for my area for every one returning. I also did financial planning for a couple of years and the people’s finances were in terrible shape. Best example, a family where husband/wife made $13/hr bought a $850K house. They were told they had a $2000/mo loan that wouldn’t change. Well, fine print said differently. Those folks are probably a foreclosure statistic. There are 10 of thousands of such people in CA that bought into those suicide loans. It should be obvious the math doesn’t add up. How can you sleep at night pushing more people like this to financial bondage and future homeless people? How can prices in CA do anything but go way down? Is the undocumented workers picking strawberries at $15K per year going to keep buying the $720K homes (documented case of such in Hollister). Please advise. I will share your answer with thousands of interested folks if you have the courage to answer this email.
Thank you
Alan - a former CA resident and glad to be out of there. If more people knew how nice life was outside of the crime, traffic, smog, high cost, crowds, high taxes, subpar health care, falling apart infrastructure, etc even more would be leaving and CA will be left with the uber rich (Paris Hilton if she is out of jail) and the dirt poor (draining what is left of any public money). I don’t think Arnold can save the day here.
I am not trying to be mean, negative, or anything. I would just like some straight answers and not the NAR fluff.
Well, the median home prices in OC are still over 600k. The mortgage industry is decimated, and the douche bag shuffle is in full effect, where all these greasy scum bag wanna be high rollers are scrambling to find the next scam. In my city Huntington Beach is still at 800k+ for the median price, which everyone nods and thinks that is respectable and realistic prices. OC is a fairy tale with a Grim like ending coming, and it will be ugly. Imagine a typical giant sunglass snooty bitch in Fashion Island sitting there with her champagne coolie, then a giant pelican turd lands in the drink covering her…that is my OC analogy and it is coming.
Popcorn eater and loving it, I can’t wait for these people who live here to get a nice big dose of reality….10% max losers will eat their words and repeat history.
“The most obvious trouble is in the subprime market, where 11.61 percent of all subprime loans in Florida are past due and 2.15 percent of subprime loans entered foreclosure during the first three months of the year.
Folks, is that all? I thought it would be a lot higher. Must still be waiting for more resets.
Well you have to assume that those numbers are fair and accurate.
With how things have gone, there is no knowing.
I rest my case…read this article!
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jun2007/db20070614_838245.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_businessweek+exclusives
“Is the Foreclosure Crisis Real?”
Bwaahaaahhhhhaaaa!!!! No there is no problems with housing, nothing to see here people….smiles everyone SMILES!!
Think prices are going down. Here are some identical houses in Ibis in Palm Beach Gardens. Note the one sfor sale for which are not owned by the developer already have pools and screen enclosures which must be worth at least $50,000. The developer is going to have to in my opinion knock off at least $100,000 to move those houses. Which will then establish a new comp or market value.
$515,000 and empty (owned by developer unsold)http://www.ibiscountryclubrealty.com/listing_sheet/R2739334#photos
$499,500 emtpy (owned by developer unsold)
http://www.ibiscountryclubrealty.com/listing_sheet/R2623385
$499,000 http://www.ibiscountryclubrealty.com/listing_sheet/R2748565
$499,000 (owned by developer unsold)
http://www.ibiscountryclubrealty.com/listing_sheet/R2739480
$489,500 (owned by deveoper unsold)
http://www.ibiscountryclubrealty.com/listing_sheet/R2625750
$449,000 sold
http://www.ibiscountryclubrealty.com/listing_sheet/R2625750
That’s the problem right now in Florida..it is a draw..the few buyers left in Fl want lower prices and the loads of sellers want “their” price….good luck FL..
‘Lenders don’t consider [that borrowers have to] put food on the table, and that property taxes and insurance are going to kill them.’”
Ladies and gentlemen: we just found the cure for obesity. Buy an overpriced house on a subprime loan through one of these lenders. There will be no food on the table. So you won’t eat. Weight will just melt off. No problem that someone might actually get hungry. Much more important to feed that mortgage alligator.
“Ever optimistic, Yun suggested a way out of the thicket: Thousands of homes will peel off into the rental market, while others drop off the charts as owners wait out the slump. ‘In a job-growth area, people can hold onto the house without being desperate,’ he said.”
Yun is indeed optimistic — for renters. ‘Peeling off’ of homes into the rental market will increase the supply of rental units, which pushes down rents.
The Herald Tribune. “The shareholders of Coast Bank of Florida sued first. Now, it’s the customers. Fifty borrowers filed lawsuits Thursday against Coast, saying the Bradenton-based bank schemed to defraud them on their home loans.”
“Sarasota attorney Alan Tannenbaum says he will file another 75 lawsuits for Coast borrowers who claim they are stuck with homes or lots that are worth less than what they owe on their mortgages. Most of his clients have stopped making payments on their loans, Tannenbaum said.”
I suspect that a lot of lawyers in Florida will be very busy for the next few years
“I suspect that a lot of lawyers in Florida will be very busy for the next few years”
I’ve been thinking this, although on the other hand, I’m not so sure. While there will be many, many cases available, I wonder how many people will be able to pay the legal bills? I wouldn’t hire a lawyer unless they’d take the case on contigency. And they don’t do that unless they think there’s a 99% chance of recovery from some insurance or other fund through bluster and negotiation. Trials are to be avoided at all costs.
Yunreah’s newest book:
“The Gospel According to Yun”
How You Can Profit From the Largest Housing Disaster in History!
Maybe Tom Vu and Larry Yun could get together and write the “Vu Yun Dung Real Estate Primer”.
That Vu you do…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9rkyyzoqI8
A while back, we were driving by expensive homes built next to the sanitation facility (call it what it is - garbage dump). I asked the children, “would you want to live next to the garbage dump”. My then 4 yr old yelled out “NO - it will stink”. Are 4 yr olds smarter than many of these home building a$$hats? Do they really think some schmuck who wants to actually live in a house wants to live next to the dump? Just what I would want on a hot New Mexico summer day. (This is in Rio Rancho NM - the big hot spot for homes - one where that 23 yr old a$$hat owning 13 homes just got auctioned off). right next to ABQ.
Bought my house in ‘99 for $115K. Two identical houses next door sold in June 2005 for $305K and $320K. Sold my home today $220K. Far below “appraised” value, but still not bad for an 8 year investment. It took 16 months to sell.
“The real measure of affordability, he said citing a formula, is mortgage obligation relative to income. ”
My read on that quote is that if you look at monthly payments based on interest only or negative amortization then everything is rosy. Pay no attention to the resets behind the curtain.
“MAY I SUPERSIZE THAT FOR YOU SIR…?”
I’m a real estate agent, just practicing for my new career….
“In Yun’s view, rising incomes and declining home prices ought to have stimulated sales this year were it not for housing bubble scares in the media.”
Hey Yun you have any ethics?
Just another pos that will be exposed for ALL your wrong forecasts.
You are USELESS.
(Affordability indeed has something to do with the relationship between mortgage obligation to income. No joke. Then the BS- Florida is near the average ratio for the country or somesuch, neglecting to note that *nationally* the ratio of mortgage-debt is wholly screwed up relative to income. So in other words… Affordability nationally is shot to heck, but at least were around the average.)
I recall some stocks being considered buys in 2000 due to “relative valuation.”
Far below “appraised” value,
Appraised value means jack S$#!.
They are so behind the declining curve to appraise anything fairly at this point. You should be grateful you bagged someone at that high of a price.
I placed the word “appraised” in quotes for exactly that reason.
I recall some stocks being considered buys in 2000 due to “relative valuation.”
relative to insane…
Got a pulse and 20% down?
I think an interesting aspect to the negative feedback in housing is being negelected.
Realtors, brokers, loan officers, CDO sales, construction workers, apprasiers and government employees account for a substantial portion of employment and income. All high paying jobs.
Above people were talking about the ratio of income to housing prices. Well, as we are watching this fall affordability is going even faster because incomes will drop!
So, the tripple whammy is comming… defaults, dropping incomes (rents will follow), rising interest rates.
We are looking at things being 50% over priced in LA and Fla realative to income. Just wait. Things drop by 15-20% and it will still be 50% over priced beacuse average income will have dropped and interest will have jumped up to cover the losses.
The moveup market will be stifled because people will not be able to trade up.
This seems like the endgame is starting in this vicious credit cycle.
Given the high level of debt the government has and the fact they will be income starved over the next couple of years means even higher rates than expected! Always takes the government longer to stop spending than everyone else.
Neil you are going to put on too much weight from that popcorn!
“‘As the housing market has cooled off, and the investors have left the market, and the subprime loans have dried up, people really should find a lot of bargains and concessions from sellers,’
Has anybody found any bargains yet? I am looking (in Miami) and I sure haven’t found a single bargain yet. Typical sales histoty looks something like this:
$90K sold in 2/2003 (just pre-bubble)
$160K sold in 1/2005
$250K sold in 5/2006 (about the peak here in Miami)
Offered for $320K in 9/2006
reduced to $300K in 1/2007
reduced to $275K in 5/2007
I wouldn’t call that a bargain, maybe at 40-50% off I would get interested. Just looking for a place to live, renting is the name of the game right now. Most places still have an asking price greater or equal to the peak price. I mean the bag holder that paid $250K MUST get $275K to cover 6% realtor’s fee and the 100% financing of $250K. If he can’t get that he might as well let things drift into foreclosure. Nope, no bargains here. Believe I’ve been looking, MLS, realtytrac, FSBO. Any successful bargain hunters out there?
No bargains in nice areas in Broward either.
I’ve been watchin Coral Springs are and although prices are slightly off the high, the asking prices are still way too high. No bargains on anything worth buying. Actually no bargains at all.
I recently checked out some houses in IBIS and Frenchman’s Reserve in Palm Beach Gardens. There are 200 out of 1200 houses for sale in IBIS. Prices are still too high in no-man’s land. In Frenchman’s Reseerve todays sellers (those who brought in 2005 when the houses were built) feel entitled to a $400-$600 profit on a house they paid $1mil for only 2 years ago. Nothing is selling to bring down the comps so I foresee a standoff for at least another 6-12 months until the sellers begin relenting.Here in Weston houses are down about 10-15% from the peak, but inventory is increasing and few homes over $1 mil are selling.
SunTrust to sell some South Florida buildings
By Harriet Johnson-Brackey
Sun-Sentinel
Posted June 15 2007, 11:33 AM EDT
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SunTrust Banks will sell and lease back five South Florida office buildings as part of a major cost-cutting move. In the next six months, 300 jobs will also be eliminated from all SunTrust’s operations.
The banking firm said it would sell and lease back 425 branch offices and 48 office buildings in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. SunTrust spokesman Mike McCoy said the banking firm “will maintain a meaningful presence in those office buildings.” No branch closures are planned. SunTrust has 1,691 branches in total.
The Atlanta-based bank will put its Lauderdale by-the-Sea building at 221 Commercial Blvd., the Hollywood office at 2001 Hollywood Blvd., Coral Ridge office at 2626 E. Oakland Park Blvd. in Fort Lauderdale, Miracle Mile office at 100 Miracle Mile in Coral Gables and Bal Harbour office at 9600 Collins Ave. up for sale. SunTrust hopes to close those deals by the end of this year.
McCoy said the bank hasn’t yet determined where the layoffs will come from geographically, but the job losses will be among employees who do not interact with customers. He said the reductions would come from the ranks of middle management, commercial and small business administration, and operation or support positions.
SunTrust has already cut about 900 jobs from last September through March through a hiring freeze, which remains in effect. As of March 31, SunTrust had 33,400 employees.
The goal of the restructuring is to save $530 million in annual operating expenses by 2009, McCoy said.
So… what exactly is the property tax rate in the major FL cities? Does it beat Baltimore’s 2.288 per $100 assessed? FL doesn’t have an income tax, so I would expect it have higher property tax, the question I guess is if it exceeds income and property elsewhere.
$1.818 / $100 assessed here in Jacksonville on a non-homesteaded property. They aren’t as bad as everyone is making out.
That’s JAX. In Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade, it’s a bit over 2% (minus $25K homestead exemption). So a $350K house would carry around $7000/yr. property taxes. Kinda steep for anyone not making six figures annually (ie: most of the population).
Landlords having problems with squatters in Cape Coral, FL.
http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=13049&z=3&p=
I wounder if the squatters are illegal aliens, the same way they were squatting buying new homes, and not making a single mortgage payment. I’ve noticed some illegals in and out quickly in my neighborhood, with trash all over the place as well.
“Lennar, which has been building several communities in Palm Bay and Viera, already has adjusted to the housing market slowdown. The focus is on ‘the greatest value we can offer,’ said Laureen Ramsey, Space Coast division president for Miami-based Lennar Homes. ‘We’re focused on bulk purchases and economies of scale.’”
If they have not been focusing on bulk purchases and economies of scale for the past few years as a major corporate homebuilder, then what HAVE they been doing?
Got 10% down?