‘Dropping Their Jaw & Freaking Out’ Replaced By Calm
From the San Francisco Chronicle. “Bay Area home sales tumbled in February for the 11th month in a row and prices appreciated at their slowest rate in two years. The median price for a single-family home in the nine-county area was $637,000 in February, up 12 percent year over year, but well below November’s peak of $656,000.”
“Sales dropped 35.8 percent (in) Napa County from February 2005 to February 2006, and dropped 30.1 percent in Solano County, 19.2 percent in Alameda County and 18.9 percent in San Francisco County in that time. The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $2,889 in February. That was up from $2,798 in January, and up from $2,460 for February a year ago.”
“Adjusted for inflation, mortgage payments are 16 percent higher than they were at the peak of the prior cycle 16 years ago.”
And the Sacramento Bee reports that calm has replaced the frenzy. “In the cooling wake of Sacramento’s five-year hot streak, real estate is tilting amid mixed signals back toward the routine, say builders, analysts and agents in Sacramento and across the nation. Gone are waiting lists and buying what’s left when builders of new homes call your name on a Saturday morning. Out is the speculative ‘flipping.’”
“Buyers in February could pick from 9,870 single-family homes for sale in Sacramento, Yolo, Placer and El Dorado counties. That’s up from 3,554 a year ago.”
“Sales of existing homes in Sacramento, Placer, Yolo and El Dorado counties continue to be down about 30 percent so far this year compared to last year. In February 1,333 houses, condos and halfplexes closed, compared to 1,919 in February of last year, a 31.7 percent decline.”
“A total of 6,206 condos and houses changed hands, nearly 17 percent below last February’s tally. Overall for the year, 2,912 homes closed, compared to 4,198 last January and February, a 30.6 percent drop.”
“‘We’re hoping the market will slow down a little more,’ said Nicholas Farrington. ‘We’re kind of holding off a little bit to find the cheapest we can find.’” “Doug Pautsch of Centex Homes, said the departure of speculators who backed out when the boom was ending accounts for the change. ‘It’s about half of what it was in the fourth quarter,’ he said.”
“In Folsom, real estate agent Fred Wilcox used words like ‘dead’ and ‘everybody dropping their jaw and freaking out’ to describe the close of 2005’s house-hunting season. In hindsight, he agreed the market was ‘just too crazy’ and needed a few months to rebalance. That’s what’s happening now, he said.”
Out, at the top, North-East Santa Clara county (SF bay area). 45 days on market, 4 offers, 3 went to contract, last one stuck. .5% over asking, .6% giveback on closing, sold as is. probably came about $3K over expectations. Most damn nervewracking time I ever spent, waiting for escrow to close. Yeah, it’s really slow but since it was priced below median, it was affordable. Lot of lookers from central valley, though.
congrat you got out in time many will lose there shorts in the years to come
“In Folsom, real estate agent Fred Wilcox used words like ‘dead’ and ‘everybody dropping their jaw and freaking out’ to describe the close of 2005’s house-hunting season. In hindsight, he agreed the market was ‘just too crazy’ and needed a few months to rebalance. That’s what’s happening now, he said.”
Right rebalance back to pre 2001 prices is more like it.
Wish someone would tell me what “rebalancing ” is .
Isn’t that a tennis shoe ???
ReBalancing hasn’t started yet.
That game begins when sellers start recognizing that the waiting game, where a 1yr supply is increasing, isn’t balanced in their favor. Then they price to beat the waiting game, because, if they wait a year OR MORE, there no telling what the “New Improved ReBalanced” prices might look like…
I guess Folsom market was in the bubble even in 2001! The prices could go down even 1999 level
Wish someone would tell me what “rebalancing ” is .
They’re going to rebalance the same way the Flying Wollendas did….not.
Why don’t sale rep. ever say the prices are coming down ?. Instead they say the market is becoming “balanced “,were getting a soft landing , buyers have more to choose from , houses are just taking longer to sell etc. etc.
Moonvalley:
You got me with that flying Wollendas comment. That was a good one.
Hey, in El Dorado Hills you even get a free load of asbestos in your backyard. How can anyone resist the sight of men in space suits from the EPA playing a friendly game of softball at the field of you local high school?
About Fred Wilcox:
Sacramento Association of Realtors Master’s Club (Top 1% Nationwide in Sales)
RE/MAX International Chairman’s Award (less than 1% of RE/MAX Agents)
Consistantly in Top 20 of RE/MAX Gold’s 1000+ Realtors
Average $13,000,000 in Sales per year since 1999
Serving the Folsom/Sacramento area for 17 Years
Wow, 13 million!!! a year. He knows real estate.
NO….He knows how to sell real estate….But, in the past several years, a monkey could have sold real estate…It sold itself…
It almost sounds like those weird awards Scientologists give each other.
… nice of him to point out that he wasn’t top 20 just once in awhile, but CONSISTANTLY. I bet that Fred wrote up his bio all by himself. Or should I say hisself. Let’s see how Fred does in the coming real estate nuclear winter. Go Fred go!
http://fredwilcox.mostreferred.com/personal-biography.html
OK…I have seen some realy good “Handles”for names on all Ben’s blogs but this one is got to be in the top of the 10;
creamofthecrap…..
Wanna know the “true value” of some homes? Put them up for auction. The results might not be pretty…..
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2006/03/14/sellers_literally_put_homes_on_the_block/?page=full
But numerous auction attendees gasped in unison when the high bid was $800,000 for a Cambridge carriage house with cherry floors and tiled fireplace that had been listed at $1.7 million after a year on and off the market. And apprehension was carved into Ralph Niemela’s face as his family’s New Hampshire home of 25 years went on the block. Bidding started at $100,000 and ended at $325,000.
”Way too low,” his wife, Helen Niemela, said. The bid was below the town’s $400,000 assessed value and the home’s $650,000 appraised value and did not hit their minimum, undisclosed price, the couple said.
Does this factor into the comps that appraisers use?
If the sale goes through, it should. There is no reason it shouldn’t — it is the most a buyer was willing to pay. Nevertheless, one anomaly isn’t going to screw the comps for an entire neighborhood. But two or more…
I’m not sure if anyone here follows Prosper.com (it’s a peer to peer lending/borrowing website). Anyway, this housing-related loan request really made me laugh…
http://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=1789
I wonder if he noticed that the Orlando listings are going through the roof? Of course, it doesn’t matter to him if he’s using someone else’s money to do the flip…
The prosper site was enlightening, thanks for sharing.
Un-Fu**ing believable!!!! I can now say I HAVE truely seen it all! LOL!!!
If this guy is so successful, why in the world would he need to borrow a piss-ant 25k?
I’d be asking the same question, I could get 25K just from a CC if i did not have it in the bank. maybe he just is not doing as well today like he stated.
prosper.com is the sign of the times. Debt is often risky and should be avoided if possible. One way or another the current state of affairs will end badly.
Yeah i initated a lending profile on Prosper, sometime ago!
But they wanted my Social Sec. # and life BIO for me to lend money…
I signed up to lend money at an attractive rate, without giving my life history. SO I get the IRS looking in my pants, while these guys rob me blind.(identity theft?)
If i wanted to give my Social / birthdate and address i might need to borrow…But to allow PROSPER access to post directly to my checking account and capacity to have everything else i have ever done…NO THANKS …i better DAM well get some privacy, I dont need to lend on the internet LIKE a BANK !
To me BANKs = IRS they are twin sisters doing each others bidding…
For the record -{In the Case in Fla.} HARD MONEY LENDING on unsecured loans (for a flipper is greater than 15% not 8%)…..had he offfered a second on the NEW property maybe 14% if he had some real equity in the deal .. unsecured money for this type of speculation is NONSENSE!!!
It’s not clear to me how much decline Troon North, a suburb of Phoenix I guess, has had during the past 6 months based on this MSNBC realty check article:
Does it mean it has dropped 50% or 90%?
Must be a typo.
“Marilyn Murray and her husband built the custom home six years ago for just under $500,000. Now it’s on the market for $1 million. Having doubled their money, Murray and her husband hope to relocate to…”
“Having doubled their money” — bad grammar, editor! It hasn’t sold yet. “Having” should be “Hoping.”
lmao
“I plant to do some minor painting”
“Thank in adance for trusting in my hability to invest”
Toll Brothers’ CEO Optimistic - 7.5% Would Be Fine!
The next sentence is so sarcastic…”They’re not McMansions, they’re mansions. The ‘Mc’ is a prefix put there by those who haven’t got one.”
A little arrogant IMO.
“a few months to rebalance”?
Words fail.
george_ie,
Wow. That Prosper site is an eye-opener. It helps to explain some of the extra liquidity out there. I wonder how much higher this nonsense has pushed the bubble.
So let me get this straight, I’ve been trying to chase a reasonable down payment in a bubble area, with prices running away at breakneck speed, while these guys give each other funny money to borrow more funny money? Good thing I decided to save, invest, rent, and sit this one out. This is going to be mind-blowing when it implodes.
I also wonder if there is some arbitrage going on, with people trying to borrow at low rates to lend at usury rates to other “prosperous” individuals. Is this the quality that loan officers are seeing day-in and day-out? If so, loan officers should be jumping out of windows now.
Does the prosper service include some leg-breaking thugs to make sure these guys don’t miss payments? Check out their loan collection partners:
https://www.prosper.com/public/help/topics/lender-collection_agencies.aspx
“We utilize the services of world class collections negotiators to get you results the others can’t.”
Now that’s what I’m talking about. World class negotiators, a sock and a cue ball. Your money is in good hands. Scary.
ok and did you see the fee’s to get your money back, or at least hope to
Fee for collection services:
30% of funds recovered in the first month*
Fee decreases by 30% each subsequent month. For example, 21% in second month, 15% in third month, etc.
Fee increases by 5% for any payment collected which brings borrower balance current.
Read about Lax landlord, lost opportunities.
“Air California Adventure Inc. operates a landmark glider port on 2 acres of city land along the ocean bluffs at Torrey Pines. Its 10-year lease, which was no-bid and is rent-free, expires in 2008.”
No wonder San Diego is on the verge of bankruptcy.
I am a good friend to one of the people who succeeded in making the glider port a historic landmark (and therefore kept it from being developed by UCSD). The guy who runs the hanggliding concession, however, is a major jerk. I think it would have been worth having a competition for the concession, in order to keep it out of his hands.
I still choose to blame the budget problems of SD on the budget solutions that they came up with (and the Governator is emulating on the state level).
This is America’s new way of thinking:
“Fraud and decrepitude seeps into the whole society. People begin to believe things that couldn’t possibly be true: deficits are good, savings are unnecessary, and that we don’t actually have to make anything, we can just “think” our way to prosperity. ”
But not mine
Quote from The Daily Reckoning?
Read about Realtors push for new real estate licensing requirements.
“A Realtor trade group in California is pushing for heightened licensing requirements for all real estate agents and brokers in the state to try to raise the bar on agent experience and education.”
Oh my, they’re getting a little pissy….
It’s about time!!! but don’t you think it’s a little to late to grab your ass after you have crapped your pants!
I just moved from Los Angeles to Sacramento. This place is a wasteland. Don’t move here unless you like Applebees, Chilis, Wal Mart, and Costco. Sacramento = uninteresting.
Hehehehe… I lived there and it was nice way back when. It is so congested now it sucks majorly. Sorry to hear about your experience.
Thats kind of interesting….I am considering moving to Sac., and I can pretty much live where ever I want…Try Fair Oaks and the American River parkway…Maybe, old town…See if that improves your perspective…
try downtown Sac or the Curtis park area. They are pretty much the only places left with any character. The rest is just suburban sprawl. The worst is Roseville, Granite bay, Lincoln, even Elk Grove - they all have that “McCommunity” stamp.
I still like Davis for the hippie sensiblity that we have left here.
When recommended articles with links need to have a paid registration, can someone copy/paste it for those that don’t have access (eg Inman news, OC Register, etc). Thanks
Rebalancing - I thought that was having your new tires fixed to make sure they don’t wabble while driving.