The Housing Bubble

The Journal Sentinel reports from Wisconsin. “The housing slump has hit an unfinished phase of a Port Washington condominium development, and Grafton State Bank is trying to break even on its investment in the project, bank President Jeff Larson said Wednesday. Two buildings with a total of 16 units are scheduled to be sold at a sheriff’s foreclosure auction. Another 60 finished condominium units were in the project’s first phase.”

“‘With the housing slowdown, they (Lakeridge) were just stretched too thin, and they basically walked away from the project,’ Larson said.”

The Des Moines Register from Iowa. “The number of sellers competing for buyers in the Des Moines metro area spiked last month, a new report from area real estate agents shows. Active listings in May increased 10.4 percent to 6,718 from 6,086 a year ago, the Des Moines Area Association of Realtors’ report showed. The average price of sales pending dropped.”

“‘If buyers find any little something about the property they don’t like…they’re just going on to the next property,’ said agent Kurt Schade.”

“Two years ago, sellers had to make few improvements before hitting the market ‘and expected them to sell. Now, they’re really trying to make their property stand out,’ Schade said.”

The Kansas City Star from Missouri. “Kansas City area home builders, already gearing back in hopes of clearing a glut of unsold homes, now are confronting a new headwind, rising mortgage rates.”

“There were 559 permits for single-family homes issued during May in the eight-county area, down 40 percent from a year earlier, according to the latest report by the Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City released Tuesday.”

“So far this year, there have been 2,858 permits issued, down 38.1 percent from the same five-month period last year and 45 percent off the record pace set during that period in 2004. It was the lowest five-month total since 1995.”

“The slowdown is in response to a large number of new homes available on the area market, almost 5,300 in April, according to the Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors.”

“No area county escaped the downturn in permit activity through the first five months of the year. Miami County experienced the steepest drop, 65 percent, followed by Cass County, 55 percent; Platte County, 54 percent; Johnson County, 34 percent; Wyandotte County, 31 percent; Clay and Jackson counties, 24 percent; and Leavenworth County, 20 percent.”

“‘There is no doubt that a significant portion of the buildup in inventory is due to overbuilding of certain home prices and styles,’ said Tim Underwood, CEO of the Home Builders Association.”

The Other Paper from Ohio. “More than a dozen baby boomers packed into a shuttle in front of the Ohio Loft condominiums. A woman in her mid-50s leaned across the aisle to the man sitting across from her and said, ‘Don’t you just love this? I can’t wait to move Downtown.’”

“Then she added, ‘I have to sell my house in Hilliard first, though. It’s been on the market for months.’”

“There’s been a recent sense, fueled by news stories and idle speculation, that the Downtown condo market—the key ingredient in hopes and plans to keep the central city vital after 5 p.m., is in trouble.”

“Many Downtown developers are tweaking their game plans in response to the lagging sales. Half-million-dollar luxury digs are still being marketed to empty nesters, the majority of the Downtown condo buyers. But recently developers have begun peppering the city with cheaper, smaller condos in an effort to lure young first-time home buyers.”

“The suburban slump has created a vicious cycle, said Rob Vogt, a partner at a Columbus company that provides national real estate market-feasibility information.”

“‘The profile of the buyers Downtown tends to be empty nesters who are moving from the suburbs,’ Vogt said. ‘When you’re trying to sell your $400,000 house in Dublin and there’s no buyer, you’re not going to be able to close on your condominium Downtown.’”

“With most Downtown condo price points traditionally starting near $350,000, Vogt said developers made the mistake in the first round of building of bypassing many first-time home buyers. ‘The lion’s share of the market isn’t being served by the current supply of Downtown condos,’ he said.”

The Cincinnati Post from Ohio. “April home foreclosures in Cincinnati rose more than 300 percent from the same month a year ago, according to a housing agency study released today.”

“But it’s hardly a Cincinnati phenomenon. Ohio’s foreclosure rate rose 64 percent in 2006, to 81,517 filings. Tyresa Hall needs only to look out her Avondale window to see the extent of the problem. Her neighbors on both sides of her home have been foreclosed on, as has a home across the street. That was about a year ago. All three are now abandoned.”

“The results have all been fairly predictable. Homes sit empty, yards overgrow, the properties fall into disrepair and their front porches increasingly become hang-outs, leaving two legacies: litter and falling home values for neighbors like Hall.”

“‘With some, there’s overgrown lawns, there’s litter all over from people hanging on the porches,’ she said.”

The Cincinnati Enquirer from Ohio. “Throughout the turbulence of stock market gyrations and erratic energy costs in the first half of the decade, Greater Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky people who owned homes could count on one constant: Their homes grew in value every year.”

“Between 2000 and 2005, equity in real estate turned out to be a surefire investment. In Greater Cincinnati, the average resale price of a single-family home rose 20 percent during that span to $191,225 from $159,125. In Northern Kentucky, the average price rose to $154,438, from $134,132, up 15 percent.”

“Then came 2006. What had been automatic became idiosyncratic. Average resale prices fell in 137 neighborhoods and towns in the region.”

“Industry experts blame last year’s downturn in used home sales on higher interest rates, tapped-out demand and the dropoff in speculative home-buying for quick resales, or flipping.”

“Norm Miller, director of the University of Cincinnati’s real estate program, hardly blinks at the slowdown in this region because he knows it was much worse, and remains much worse, in cities in Florida, Arizona and California.”

“The stable neighborhoods that have longer-term residents are going to see no price effects, just a little less volume,’ Miller said. ‘The more transient neighborhoods with more turnover, where there are a lot of foreclosures and where banks no longer make subprime loans, could soften up a bit on price.’”

The Journal Group from Michigan. “On June 1, the Wayne County Treasurer’s Office mailed out a record-breaking total of 148,856 notices for 2006 property taxes that have been returned to Wayne County as delinquent from the 43 county municipalities, according to spokesperson Keith Owens.”

“The total amount due to be collected from these delinquent accounts also amounts to an all-time high of over $290 million. That’s a $90 million increase over last year.”

“‘We’re getting foreclosures in at the city at the rate of about five a week, 20 houses a month is pretty bad,’ said Romulus Mayor Alan Lambert. ‘We’ve talked to some mortgage lenders to see if they can help, and they’re concerned, too. They don’t want all of these mortgages to fall back on their laps.’”

“‘When you’re driving around here in the neighborhoods, you tell there are many abandoned houses because the grass is tall,’ Lambert said.”

The Detroit News from Michigan. “They have names like the Ridgemont, the Georgetown and the Hillcrest, sit in swanky suburbs like Rochester Hills and come adorned with rich detail, but even the slickest of the new homes in Metro Detroit aren’t selling.”

“As a result, Metro Detroit builders are dramatically scaling back plans for new homes and condos this summer. Residential building permits fell 51.3 percent from January through May compared with the same period last year.”

“Still, local builders are chugging forward on projects already in the works, even as the housing slump, one that’s hitting Southeast Michigan particularly hard, one economist said, makes it tough to get rid of a glut of new homes.”

“‘Southeast Michigan is the weakest pocket in the nation, with a market that never really recovered from the recession of 2001,’ said David Seiders, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. ‘And it’s still sinking.’”

“In today’s market, builders are keenly aware they’re up against tough competition from other developers and deeply discounted existing homes, many put on the market by sellers desperate to rid themselves of property.”

“Winnick Homes, another local developer, is touting ‘ready to own’ single-family homes, ones that are completed but not sold, in communities like Southgate and Novi.”

“In contrast, when the market was more seller-driven just a few years back, many developers could sell an entire neighborhood before a shovel broke ground.”