June 28, 2007

In Mid-2006, The Merry-Go-Round Stopped Whirling

The Jeffersonian reports from Maryland. “The national increase in mortgage defaults during the last six months has not spared the northeast area of Baltimore County. During the 2002-2006 boom years, as house values kept escalating, home owners could easily refinance, since rising appraisals gave their properties more equity than they had paid in.”

“But in mid-2006, the merry-go-round stopped whirling. ‘Many clients assumed the boom would keep going. But we (professionals) know from history that they never do. They always end,’ said Sherrie Brandquist, a housing counselor.”

“Some home appraisals are going down, and those homeowners find themselves with a house worth less than the amount they owe on the mortgage.”

“Brandquist said the boom times also encouraged a few lenders to make loans that would not pass muster today, as interest rates have risen and lenders clamp down on poorer risks. ‘It was greed at its finest,’ she said.”

“As an example, Brandquist mentioned a person earning $25,000 who was granted an adjustable mortgage for $300,000.”

“Joseph Banick, veteran agent with RE/MAX Elite Realty, said he has noted more clients telling him they could no longer afford their homes and needed to sell. Banick said they were often young couples under 35 living beyond their means and discovering that the ‘well has run dry.’”

“Banick joined the housing counselor in saying the current situation will get worse before it gets better. ‘A lot of people are going to be humbled in the next few years,’ Banick said.”

“The reason? Many adjustable-rate mortgages taken out by home buyers during the boom have passed their first two years at a fixed rate and stand to rise dramatically, often $500 or more per month, Banick said.”

“‘People assumed they could re-finance at a lower fixed rate, but it’s not there anymore,’ said Kevin Goodnight, a salesman who specializes in foreclosed properties.”

“Goodnight noted a statewide total of more than 5,000 bankruptcies awaiting court action. Most of those people will also lose their homes, he said, because filing for bankruptcy only stays foreclosure action for 30 days. Under new bankruptcy laws passed a couple years ago, a person’s house is no longer protected.”

The Frederick News Post from Maryland. “Tougher standards have made subprime loans more difficult to qualify for, and that means they will have little affect on reducing the number of foreclosures in Frederick County. Foreclosures totaled 809 in Frederick County for the 12-month period ending in May.”

“‘It’s been years since I’ve seen those numbers,’ said Michael Kurtianyk, director of residential sales for Tyler-Donegan Real Estate in Urbana. ‘The high numbers are a function of people buying homes above their means, and lenders giving money above their means. Now it’s time to pay the piper.’”

“Foreclosures in the county are at their highest level in 40 years, said Bill Poffenbarger, CEO of Millennium Financial Group in Middletown. ‘The government made it easy to buy houses because the rates were so low over the last six years,’ Poffenbarger said. ‘People were scratching to get into a house.’”

“The key factor during any loan application is when a lender seeks the applicant’s credit score, which ranges from 350, the lowest, to a perfect score of 850.”

“A score of 620 used to qualify a borrower for a subprime loan, Kurtianyk said, but in the wake of foreclosures nationwide, the bottom score has shifted to 640.”

“Frederick County (home) sales locally were up by 34 homes to 264, according to the Maryland Association of Realtors. However, the average price was down. The average price for a home sold in Frederick County in May was $349,718, down from $354,740 in May 2006.”

“‘The market is stabilizing,’ said Terry Fox, president of the Frederick County Association of Realtors.”

“‘We’re seeing a lot of people looking at the lower end of the market, below $500,000,’ said Stephen Mackintosh of Mackintosh Inc. Realtors. ‘At the upper end there is still a glut of inventory.’”

“That inventory is nearly 2,300 homes for sale in Frederick County, up from about 1,800 for May 2006.”

“‘Savvy home buyers are out there looking,’ Mackintosh said. ‘There is a great window of opportunity for negotiation. Sellers are getting realistic with pricing.’”

“The housing market stalled last year after a five-year run of soaring prices and buyers, many of them investors, lined up to acquire property. Higher mortgage rates, a slowdown in sales and the growing problem of foreclosures put the brakes on the market.”

“In neighboring Montgomery County, home sales fell by more than 330 to 1,001 from May 2006 to May 2007. Montgomery has nearly 6,000 homes on the market.”

The Virginia Pilot. “It may finally be a go for Granby Tower. Contractors have been given the green light to start building the 34-story, $180.5 million complex of luxury condominiums, offices and shops, developer Buddy Gadams said Wednesday.”

“The oft-delayed project will be the city’s tallest building, at 490 feet. The only work to date on the project, announced in July 2004, has been the driving of test piles and relocating underground utility lines.”

“Gadams referred questions about when work would begin to Turner executive Christian E. Jahrling, who did not return calls Wednesday.”

“The project has been beset by delays. Most recently, a May 9 groundbreaking came and went with no construction activity. Gadams attributed that delay to finalizing the building’s $145 million loan.” “A $22 million city grant will also help pay for the project, along with Marathon Development’s own funds.”

“When asked Wednesday if the financing was in place for the project, Gadams said he wouldn’t have told general contractor Turner Construction Co. to start work if he didn’t have the money. John Plunkett, a Stonington Capital managing partner, said the presence of the notice-to-proceed e-mail made it ‘probably safe to assume’ that the money deal was done.”

“On May 31, Gadams said about half the project’s 302 residential units, ranging in price from $270,000 to more than $1 million, had been sold. Now the project is getting off the ground amid a national housing slump.”




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69 Comments »

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-06-28 12:25:01

“‘A lot of people are going to be humbled in the next few years,’ Banick said…The reason? “Many adjustable-rate mortgages taken out by home buyers during the boom have passed their first two years at a fixed rate and stand to rise dramatically, often $500 or more per month, Banick said.””

The fundamental problem is that this practice continues today, because of insane housing prices. People talk as if these suicide loans are a thing of the past. They’re not. In fact, they are the only thing propping up the market right now. Until this sort of lending is discontinued, there is a seemingly endless supply of GF’s stepping up to the chopping block. Todays loans guarantee tomorrows foreclosures. The whole industry is rotten to the very core.

Comment by Patricio
2007-06-28 12:59:49

They have reigned in those programs to a degree, however there are many degrees more to go, not to mention the credit ratings fraud, and the fraud in income reporting. I suspect only when the banks have had an ass full of this nonsense and go after their paid puppets in the Gov will we see a change. What I suspect will happen and hope for is some new bracelets put on the fraudsters on both sides of the mortgage business, and start jailing these fools and then people might think twice and actually stop this lameness and goof ball loans. But ONLY until the legislative masters step up to the plate the banks and get their puppets in line.

Comment by Rich
2007-06-28 13:09:31

Throw a few of them in LA County jail, their new roomie Bubba will take good care of them.

Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-06-28 16:42:42

If it’s LA County, it would be Ramone or Tyrone. Last time I went to LA, I didn’t see a white person for two days.

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Comment by HelloKitty
2007-06-28 14:26:44

Under new bankruptcy laws passed a couple years ago, a person’s house is no longer protected.
- WOW! Horray government (for once) for not allowing deadbeats to delay foreclosure for 6-9 months. I used to be if a guy in FC went BK they had toe delay the process untill the BK was discharged by the courts delaying it many months. Then they were ususally on a weak partial payment plan that they ALWAYS failed to keep and it foreclosed anyway.

I forgot about that sneakin bankruptcy bill. Athough it punishes people with medical bill bankruptcy very unfairly it WILL not allow FB’s to abuse bk apparently.

Comment by Peter T
2007-06-28 14:37:32

> Under new bankruptcy laws passed a couple years ago, a person’s house is no longer protected.

I was surprised by that statement. I thought some protection was removed, but some still remained, like that houses can be kept if they have been owned long enough.

Comment by foreclose_me
2007-06-28 16:04:09

I think it capped the amount of ‘homestead’ protection you can have ($125,000?); it also required the home to be bought something like 4 years before the bankruptcy in order to have the protection.

Protection is determined by state law.

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Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-06-28 18:12:33

this has been in the back of my mind for a while .. wonderin’ if some brain in gubbermint actually foresaw this RE bubble deflation years ago.

they do hire some pretty smart people .. although the system rarely *elects* deep thinkers.

 
 
 
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2007-06-28 12:33:42

The high numbers [of foreclosures] are a function of people buying homes above their means

You don’t say! Gosh I love it when newspapers like the esteemed Frederick News-Post prod people to divulge the heart of the matter.

Comment by Smithers
2007-06-28 13:18:30

At least they didn’t blame foreclosures on flat or falling prices . . . that drives me nuts!! Foreclosures only happen when the FB doesn’t pay the monthly bill, the value of the home is immaterial . . . yet, falling home prices get part of the blame. AAAARRRRRRGGGHHHHHH!!

2007-06-28 13:51:52

Well, as usual, they don’t get it. Rising foreclosures are the media’s fault for reporting negative news on housing. The media’s reporting negative news on subprime loan performances finally got Wall Street to stop writing blank checks. Such negative nellies in the media business.

 
 
 
Comment by hd74man
2007-06-28 12:39:55

$180.5 million complex of luxury condominiums,

How nice…a $22mil municipal GRANT (obviously FED money-every town here in Mazzholeland is broke) to build LUXURY condo’s.

You can bet the developers grabbed on to this chunk of cash immediately as a management “fee” and then stuck all the associated construction and absorption risk to their LLC.

Comment by Patricio
2007-06-28 13:03:13

Money well spent obviously! I remember watching the Gov ship tanker full after tanker full of money to Iraq to rebuild what we blew up. All the while I was struggling to get a small biz loan, here in the states, for a homeland security device that would revolutionize disaster site communications. But, alas….I was denied, while we rebuilt Iraq, I hate my Gov and love my Country.

 
 
Comment by auger-inn
2007-06-28 12:41:00

Brandquist said the boom times also encouraged a few lenders to make loans that would not pass muster today, as interest rates have risen and lenders clamp down on poorer risks. ‘It was greed at its finest,’ she said.”

Yeah, it was just a “FEW” lenders making these loans.
I read a couple of months ago (sorry, no link) that a large multi-national German bank came over and set up some shell companies to run these subprime loans through to collect the enormous fees. It was a real boiler room operation. They made sure that they sold the loans immediately and also that their name was not in any way affiliated with the loans or the shell company. Gee, I wonder why they did that?
Don’t let these guys try to say this was all some sort of mistake by a couple of bad eggs. Everyone of these big banks knew exactly what they were doing and the risks involved.

Comment by NOVA
2007-06-28 16:10:42

Probably Deutsche Bank. They have an interesting history especially during WWII

 
 
Comment by zeropointzero
2007-06-28 12:48:05

Lines like these make my “Danger Will Robinson !!!” lights start blinking madly:

“When asked Wednesday if the financing was in place for the project, Gadams said he wouldn’t have told general contractor Turner Construction Co. to start work if he didn’t have the money. John Plunkett, a Stonington Capital managing partner, said the presence of the notice-to-proceed e-mail made it ‘probably safe to assume’ that the money deal was done.

“On May 31, Gadams said about half the project’s 302 residential units, ranging in price from $270,000 to more than $1 million, had been sold. (anyone else think “about half” is probably quite an exaggeration — and perhaps Mr. Gadams definition of “sold” may not be quite the same as mine: qualified buyer, decent deposit, signed contract?)

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-06-28 13:25:28

How many of these units are actually going to be owner-occupied? About half of that “about half” that have been sold?

 
Comment by Mo Money
2007-06-28 14:00:09

How can you “Sell” something that hasn’t been built yet ? The reporter is a retard and I apologize to the real mentally handicapped when I say that.

 
Comment by brian in norfolk
2007-06-28 16:04:09

I think that their definition of ’sold’ is replying ‘yes’ to the question, “Excuse me sir/madam, would you like to buy a condo?” At best, their definition is a deposit check without a signed contract.

There is NO WAY that many are sold. We are pretty far behind most of the country [at least a year], but with the spring selling reason past, I think the locals sense a problem because there seems to be a lot of inventory.

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-06-28 12:50:48

said Sherrie Brandquist, a housing counselor.
so she got short in 05?
I did ,but ran out of patience

 
Comment by travanx
2007-06-28 12:51:21

does raising the FICO from 620 to 640 really weed out the subprime people that much? Why not just say we went from 620 to a really tough 621 FICO score to get a loan.

Comment by Sobay
2007-06-28 13:05:25

‘does raising the FICO from 620 to 640 really weed out the subprime people that’

My brother is a subprime loan broker in the OC. He said that it has changed a lot. The loan to value and the FICO are being looked at a couple of times now as well as demands for 2nd appraisals. The FICO has been raised.

 
 
Comment by geeah
2007-06-28 12:53:57

“There is a great window of opportunity for negotiation”

I agree… let’s just start by lowering your wishing price about 25% and then we can start negotiations.

Comment by Patricio
2007-06-28 13:29:30

Oh….how DARE YOU! 25% will make them spit and scream at that insulting bid, until 6 months goes by and then they are scrambling to get 25% off.

Comment by Bye FL
2007-06-29 00:13:45

wait 2 years and they will be begging you to buy their house at 50% off what they paid or what it “could” have sold for at the peak of insanity

 
 
 
Comment by Brad
2007-06-28 13:06:51

today’s The Market Oracle:

“I feel for real estate owners and those wacky, ever-passionate metals bugs, who desperately hold onto the notion that the Fed is firmly in control of their investments and/or that hyperinflation is the only indicated outcome. They ignore the fact that the Emperor Has No Clothes — that the homebuilder’s index has fallen like a skydiver without a parachute, that interest rates are showing no such trend, that the subprime mess is dangerously infecting mortgage securities markets and hedge funds, that consumer spending is waning and that commodities markets are exhibiting ever-greater signs of weakness. Denial is not just a river in Egypt, as the old saying goes.

The gold and silver cheerleaders are out in full force, beating you about the head and upper torso with their pom-poms and graphs, begging you to stay the course as overwhelming asset deflationary forces hold ever-greater sway. “Bargain” gold and silver is there to be had, we’re told, but for some reason investors are passing on this “obvious and remarkable opportunity!” Exactly how low must these commodities go before folks begin to figure out they’re throwing good money after bad? Something tells me that we’ll soon be finding out. “

Comment by ShaunT79
2007-06-28 13:27:57

Of course we know stocks will escape the deflationary spiral.

 
Comment by Austrian School
2007-06-28 13:31:35

Perhaps a little OT, but people that think gold is just another commodity, like its an industrial input used in making cars, are missing the point. They forget that gold IS money. Paper was first a receipt to record its ownership, and then FDR and Nixon (2 wonderful folks) cut the connection all together and decided that for the time being at least, they’d just use paper (while protecting this arbitrary industrial commodity in Fort Knox).

Comment by Brian in Chicago
2007-06-28 14:00:53

I think most of us understand that. The “issue” is that the value of gold, when represented in dollars, might be inflated.

While on the topic of gold, I’m curious where most people do their shopping. I’ve seen a few websites such as http://www.bulliondirect.com that appear legitimate. Most web sites just look so amateur I can’t believe they’re real.

Comment by auger-inn
2007-06-28 14:08:44

http://www.apmex.com
very legitimate, very easy and the best pricing I’ve found although I’m sure there are others.

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Comment by Mo Money
2007-06-28 14:03:10

Go try paying for gas or food with gold coins and then tell me it’s money.

 
Comment by Peter T
2007-06-28 14:06:04

> gold IS money

Try to pay your taxes with gold - nope, impossible. First you have to sell the gold to get money to pay taxes. That doesn’t mean that the price of gold cannot increase further, but taxes to be paid in paper dollars are here to stay.

Comment by BubbleViewer
2007-06-28 14:39:21

the reason we can’t pay our taxes with gold is that our government ignores its own constitution. Have you read the constitution? Do you realize it says “No state shall make any thing except gold or silver a tender”? Do you realize the end run around the Const, that our govt. has performed?
The reason why the founding fathers put that clause in is because recognized that money must obey laws of honest weights and measures.
What is money?
1. medium of exchange
2. store of value
3. unit of measure
What is a dollar?
A silver coin containing 371.25 grains of fine silver, same as the so called “Pieces of Eight,’ and the reason why, until recent years, stock prices were always priced in 1/8 increments. Because that’s what a dollar is divided into: 8 pieces.
Study your monetary history. I recommend the two-volume set: Pieces of Eight - The Monetary Powers and Disabilities of the US Constitution by Edwin Viera.

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Comment by yogurt
2007-06-29 01:01:51

This clause prohibits the state governments from issuing their own currencies. The federal government is authorized to “coin money”, i.e. issue fiat currency.

 
 
Comment by auger-inn
2007-06-28 14:39:41

Perhaps this will shed some light on the subject?
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gnazzo/2006/0702.html
I recommend the whole series (which I’m sure will offend Brad)

COINAGE ACT OF 1873
In the Coinage Act of 1873, Congress for the very first time stated that gold coins of the “one dollar piece”, which contained 23-22/100 grains of fine metal – “shall be the unit of value.”

As previously shown, however, the dollar of the Constitution and the Coinage Act of 1792 was a specific weight of silver – the silver dollar.

Without a Constitutional amendment to change the original standard, the Coinage Act of 1873 that purports to effect such change, is without question – unconstitutional.

Any statute or law must be in pursuance of the Constitution to be part of The Supreme Law of the Land – if it is not; it is null and void, as if it never occurred.

The act also stopped the minting of silver dollars, which is undeniably an unconstitutional act. Only a constitutional amendment can authorize such change.

On the face of it, it would appear that the Act of 1873 demonetized silver coinage, albeit unconstitutionally; and placed the gold dollar as the new standard. Appearances, however, can be deceiving – and this one is as deceptive as they come.

A close inspection of the Coinage Act of 1873 reveals that someone went to great lengths of subtlety to cover their butt regarding the legality and constitutionality of the act. The following wording is craftily employed within the text:

“…This act shall not be construed to affect any act done, right accrued, or penalty incurred, under former acts, but every such right is hereby saved”, even if such “acts done” and “rights accrued” were “inconsistent” with the 1873 Act. [5]

All of which means that at the time, we were technically (statutorily) on the silver standard, but practically (in usage) on the gold standard.

Therefore, although the powers-that-be were trying to make it appear, through illusion and delusion, that silver had been demonetized – in truth it had not. In point of fact: we are still on the silver standard today, whether it is adhered to or not – as any law not in pursuance of the Constitution is null and void – as if it never occurred.

However, such false beliefs or lies, when told often enough, for long enough – end up becoming the accepted state of how the general public perceives things to be.

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Comment by Itsabouttime
2007-06-28 14:51:23

Why? Why are taxes paid in paper dollars here to stay? Do you know how many currencies the contiguous U.S. has had in its history that can no longer be used to buy or pay for anything? I can think of at least two. The Continental, that’s one–try paying for anything, including taxes, with that. The Confederate dollar, that’s another. Again, of zero value now. About the only thing you could’ve gotten in 1789 that could be used for money now is gold.

If we look internationally, the number of useless paper currencies only rises. The German mark, the Italian lira, the Weimar currency, on and on, all lost to the dustbin of history. If there is anything of which we can be certain, it should be that no paper currency will last.

I am not a goldbug–I would expect ammo and weapons to be of more value than any metallic dust should things really go bad. But, I would suggest no one ever say any paper currency is “here to stay.”

IAT

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Comment by Peter T
2007-06-28 20:24:41

> Why are taxes paid in paper dollars here to stay?

Modern civilization needs the modern state with significant taxes. When I claimed that you will need paper money to pay your taxes, I predicted that you will live in a modern state, that the state will demand the taxes in its currency, and that the currency won’t be backed by gold or similar stuff. I didn’t predict that each type of paper money will thrive (just look to Zimbabwe where one type is dissolving now). I further assumed that the US would still exist in a scenario, but you are right: if the US collapses as a state as the Confederacy did, the US dollar would return to its paper value. (The Continental currency seem to have been a slightly different beast, with frequent counterfeiting by the British and no modern banking system to regulate it.) And if states collapses without new states to fill the void, gold (and ammo!) will become prefered barter - but to hope for such scenario seems folly.

 
 
 
Comment by ajas
2007-06-28 15:06:54

gold IS money

As folks around here like to remind us, Money is created as Debt, not gold. When first the availability of debt is gone and then the demand for it, that is a very strong deflationary pressure. Folks that argue long term inflation is inevitable… well sure. In the near term, as the asset bubble deflates there is no reason to believe that gold hasn’t been subject to the same forces as all other assets, nor that the effect of the credit crunch is anything but deflationary.

Now what to do about it, I wish I knew. But believing in some secret moneymaking safe haven is a common speculative fallacy.

 
 
Comment by auger-inn
2007-06-28 14:05:27

Brad, your confirmation bias is showing again! :)
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

 
 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-06-28 13:17:34

“Joseph Banick, veteran agent with RE/MAX Elite Realty, said he has noted more clients telling him they could no longer afford their homes and needed to sell. Banick said they were often young couples under 35 living beyond their means and discovering that the ‘well has run dry.’”

“Banick joined the housing counselor in saying the current situation will get worse before it gets better. ‘A lot of people are going to be humbled in the next few years,’ Banick said.”
i bet he was saying 2-3 years ago buy now at any cost so not to be priced put forever.
Realtors are scum.

Comment by Catherine
2007-06-28 13:38:46

“Banick said they were often young couples under 35 living beyond their means and discovering that the ‘well has run dry.’”

Wasn’t it supposed to be the boomers who put this thing in the toilet? That’s what I kept hearing!
FWIW/FYI, greed, stupidity and impatience occur at every age.
And let’s not get into an argument - boomers vs. X’ers vs. Y’ers, etc. It’s apparent there’s not one group more irresponsible than another.

Comment by HARM
2007-06-28 14:13:12

It’s apparent there’s not one group more irresponsible than another.

I agree there’s plenty of blame to go around, and (to some extent) adults from all age ranges have participated in this mess. However…. there are relatively few people I know from my own generation (X) who bought overpriced ‘gators in the last 6 years, while I know *plenty* of no-impulse-control Boomers, as well as their Spawn-of-Satan Gen-Y offspring who went “all-in”.

Not everyone fits their generational stereotype (as regulars here prove every day), and there are exceptions to every rule. Even so, I’d be very curious to see a demographic break-down of age ranges of the people who got option-ARMs over the past several years. My guess is they’d be heavily concentrated among the Boomer & Y generations.

 
 
Comment by Ken Best
2007-06-28 17:59:01

Here in California a strawberry picker (12K/yr) bought a 700K house.
The realtor chipped in on the first few payments, then disappeared.

 
 
Comment by jmunnie
Comment by Austrian School
2007-06-28 13:34:21

Huzzaahhhh!

 
 
Comment by MikeG
2007-06-28 13:25:32

$500K for a lot of homes in Fredrick Co. is overpriced. Prices have definately declined, but still are more than $50-80K overpriced.

 
Comment by Va Beyatch from Virginia Beach
2007-06-28 13:26:39

Hey everyone, I walk past the Granby Tower site to and from work everyday, and my comments about the project are posted on the Virginia Pilot site. Those units probably won’t sell, they sold a good number a good while ago, but sales have been very flat as far as I can tell. Also, the Virginia Pilot interviewed anxious upcoming young people that had put money down for a unit in the paper. I noticed both of those interviewed were mortgage brokers. OOops! Don’t get me wrong, there are some that can afford it…. but there is a large number of condos coming on the market in downtown Norfolk VA (Harbor Heights under construction, Barr has some under construction, 388 Bousch was just finished, there are more on Granby). Some major new apartment building announcements (hundreds of units). Except… jobs? I work for a startup company, exciting, fun… but the salary isn’t going to afford any of these places. Even if things go really well, almost all of my coworkers are older and already have places and families. Most of the business in downtown Norfolk is law firms, gov’t relate, and banks. The one exception would be Trader Publishing (now Dominion Enterprises)… but they most likely don’t pay high $$. My friend was earning 40’s as a developer there.

We also just made the bottom of Forbes list of where young professionals should live. Overpriced, low salaries is what they said.

The city is run by old money, a good ol’ boy network. They don’t get it. Oh that 50% sold hasn’t moved in a long time.

Comment by Smithers
2007-06-28 13:42:45

Hey everyone, my enter key is stuck.

Comment by VaBeyatch
2007-06-28 15:22:53

Odd, I have no idea why my post showed up 3 times. I did not double click nor click 3 times. No proxy servers (No ISA, no Squid, no Websense, no anything). Bizzare. I was using Safari 3 on OSX when I posted, where as I normally browse the site with Lynx (UNIX shell prompt) and post with Firefox under Linux, FreeBSD or Windows 2k/XP. Odd. I’m on a different system now, so this should only appear once.

 
 
 
Comment by Va Beyatch from Virginia Beach
2007-06-28 13:26:39

Hey everyone, I walk past the Granby Tower site to and from work everyday, and my comments about the project are posted on the Virginia Pilot site. Those units probably won’t sell, they sold a good number a good while ago, but sales have been very flat as far as I can tell. Also, the Virginia Pilot interviewed anxious upcoming young people that had put money down for a unit in the paper. I noticed both of those interviewed were mortgage brokers. OOops! Don’t get me wrong, there are some that can afford it…. but there is a large number of condos coming on the market in downtown Norfolk VA (Harbor Heights under construction, Barr has some under construction, 388 Bousch was just finished, there are more on Granby). Some major new apartment building announcements (hundreds of units). Except… jobs? I work for a startup company, exciting, fun… but the salary isn’t going to afford any of these places. Even if things go really well, almost all of my coworkers are older and already have places and families. Most of the business in downtown Norfolk is law firms, gov’t relate, and banks. The one exception would be Trader Publishing (now Dominion Enterprises)… but they most likely don’t pay high $$. My friend was earning 40’s as a developer there.

We also just made the bottom of Forbes list of where young professionals should live. Overpriced, low salaries is what they said.

The city is run by old money, a good ol’ boy network. They don’t get it. Oh that 50% sold hasn’t moved in a long time.

 
Comment by Va Beyatch from Virginia Beach
2007-06-28 13:26:39

Hey everyone, I walk past the Granby Tower site to and from work everyday, and my comments about the project are posted on the Virginia Pilot site. Those units probably won’t sell, they sold a good number a good while ago, but sales have been very flat as far as I can tell. Also, the Virginia Pilot interviewed anxious upcoming young people that had put money down for a unit in the paper. I noticed both of those interviewed were mortgage brokers. OOops! Don’t get me wrong, there are some that can afford it…. but there is a large number of condos coming on the market in downtown Norfolk VA (Harbor Heights under construction, Barr has some under construction, 388 Bousch was just finished, there are more on Granby). Some major new apartment building announcements (hundreds of units). Except… jobs? I work for a startup company, exciting, fun… but the salary isn’t going to afford any of these places. Even if things go really well, almost all of my coworkers are older and already have places and families. Most of the business in downtown Norfolk is law firms, gov’t relate, and banks. The one exception would be Trader Publishing (now Dominion Enterprises)… but they most likely don’t pay high $$. My friend was earning 40’s as a developer there.

We also just made the bottom of Forbes list of where young professionals should live. Overpriced, low salaries is what they said.

The city is run by old money, a good ol’ boy network. They don’t get it. Oh that 50% sold hasn’t moved in a long time.

 
Comment by ChrisO
2007-06-28 13:40:39

Somehow, the very thought of condos in the Tidewater metro area makes me chuckle. Truly one of those places where there is no “there” there. I mean, I think of “downtown” there as the Navy base. I guess there’s more in Tidewater than there used to be, but c’mon, million-dollar condos???

Comment by VaBeyatch
2007-06-28 15:26:43

Tidewater has grown up a bit, I think we have about 1.6 million in the metro? Virginia Beach is nearly all built out, sporting the tallest building in the entire state of Virginia. There is a mixed use project going in, which will feature 62 of 1000+ homes being marketed as “affordable for teachers and firefighters.” They will run from 170K to 190K, and probably be small with no land. All of the cities have convention centers now (Hampton, Virginia Beach, and Norfolk has a new one). Virginia Beach spent $60mil on a performing arts theater, over $200 mil on the huge new convention center, and gobs more on other projects. The other cities are doing the same. Many have new downtowns. Virginia Beach’s downtown is at the Independence area, and during the business day traffic is rough since they didn’t prepare roads. The new mixed use project will be on top of existing gridlock. Most of the good paying jobs are military/defense contracting, outside of being old money, running rim shops and payday loan joints, military and gov’t finance get it today rent to owns, and a few of the large companies in the area. *Shrug*

 
 
Comment by ChrisO
2007-06-28 13:43:31

Paying $500k+ for a house in Frederick County, Md.? Uh, ok. There’s a reason the locals are known as Frednecks, and I’ve spent some time around there myself.

Comment by qt
2007-06-28 14:27:57

A co-worker of mine told me that some fredernecks are going because of an influx of illegals. Personally, I cannot verify this even though i live in Mont. County. Anyone from Frederick knows if this is true? Like are there 5 or 6 cars parked outside the house?

In addition, why is frederick associated with bethesda? avg. income $100,000 hahaha
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/28/real_estate/most_affordable_housing_markets/index.htm?postversion=2007062814

 
 
Comment by wovoka
2007-06-28 13:43:34

Re; Mr. Gadams’ 1/2 sold statement—SOLD in condo terms refers to a deposit and deposits are being walked away from every day.

Comment by zeropointzero
2007-06-28 14:00:23

I’ll bet his definition of “sold” is even looser than that. I’ll bet there’s some mechanism to declare interest and put a “hold” on a unit with signuature and/or a really small fee.

Or maybe I’m wrong — maybe this is the hottest thing to hit Norfolk in years. But if it were, you would think they would have been able to go through with the two towers, as originally planned, rather than just this one.

Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2007-06-29 00:55:57

No, as far as I can tell sold means there is a deposit on a unit. I’m not exactly sure what one has to put down, but when I went to their sales pavilion (some trailers fancied up with a fake unit inside) many of the high end units were all taken. The funny thing is, the demo unit feels totally small and cramped. I tell people they should market the condos in trailer terms. For $400K you get a single wide, for $800K you get a double wide in the sky.

Anyways, the crazy part is none of these people want to lower prices, because they do not want to deal with all the previous buyers
screaming.

Also, construction costs have gone way up on them. If it is actually built, by the time it’s under way, they will be down again :-)

 
 
 
Comment by Mcnulty
2007-06-28 14:02:15

I’ve seen every episode of The Wire. Why the hell would anyone want to live in Baltimore?

Comment by qt
2007-06-28 14:39:31

with you on this. you couldnt pay me enough to live there. may have to give me an uzi as well

Comment by spike66
2007-06-28 15:11:11

Love the wire, but would never want to live there.

 
 
Comment by MikeG
2007-06-28 17:21:27

Primarily because it’s cheaper than DC. Other than that, I will say that Baltimore does have a certain funky charm… it’s Charm City you know? It reminds me a bit of New Orleans, except instead of people saying “darling” they say “honey” or more likely the dimunitive, “hon”

There are at least 3 or 4 really nice neighborhoods in Baltimore City. A few more than that in the county.

Comment by JayInMD
2007-06-28 21:31:37

Well, Hon, I wouldn’t be caught dead in Bal-more

 
 
 
Comment by Pen
2007-06-28 14:02:57

“‘People assumed they could re-finance at a lower fixed rate, but it’s not there anymore,’ said Kevin Goodnight, a salesman who specializes in foreclosed properties.”

Kevin Goodnight, funny..maybe that s/b “Goodnight Irene”..

Comment by hd74man
2007-06-28 15:29:12

Hey Penn~

Rowley values down 5.1% for last year.

Newbury down 27.2%
Triton Regional School is in a meltdown cause Salisbury ain’t payin’ their share of the bills.

Hope you didn’t buy in.

More to come.

Comment by Pen
2007-06-28 18:49:13

Hey HD,

Thanks for the input.

Nope..still haven’t bought in. Still keepin’ the powder dry.

I’m thinking it might be best to avoid Rowley (although I do like the unassuming nature of the town and the fact that it has a commuter rail station with a large parking lot). I have been watching Georgetown, Ipswich, Boxford, and even Beverly. Ideally, I’d like something in a town with moorings or a boat ramp. I don’t have kids, but I think the school thing is important for eventual resale.

Thanks for the info.

Pen

 
 
 
Comment by The Dude
2007-06-28 14:22:07

Apologies if a repost……

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN2741174320070628

“(My) personal view is that it will be a very quick and strong rebound” fueled by a release of pent-up demand for new homes, Toll said. “We’re not into this recession in housing for a long period compared to the other downturns.”

However, all bets are off if the U.S. economy retreats, he said.

Comment by Bye FL
2007-06-29 00:33:07

haha I doubt that. Easy financing is no more and the speculators got burnt once, most won’t get burnt twice. Also prices are not affordable for most so they have to come down back in line with salaries.

 
 
Comment by Mike a.k.a/Sage
2007-06-29 00:01:17

“‘People assumed they could re-finance at a lower fixed rate, but it’s not there anymore,’ said Kevin Goodnight, a salesman who specializes in foreclosed properties.”

Goodnight specializes in foreclosed properties. Goodnight.

 
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