The Latest Sign Of An Ailing Real Estate Market
The Union reports from California. “In May, the median price for a house or condominium sold in Nevada County dropped slightly more than 5 percent to $460,000, down from $484,500 in May 2006, according to DataQuick. In Nevada County, an older, three-bedroom house that once would have fetched more than $400,000 now sells for well under that bar.”
“With more than three times the number of houses on the market than a year ago, frustrated sellers are reaching out to buyers with new incentives. Some sellers are paying closing costs and offering to buy down interest rates to sell houses that have been on the market for a year or more. Those who fear foreclosure are slashing their prices.”
“Some sellers of high-end properties have dropped prices by as much as $300,000 after watching them stagnate on the market for more than a year, said Marilyn Seolas of RE/MAX Advantage.”
“Chauncey Poston, president of the Nevada County Association of Realtors, talked with The Union this week about the real estate market downturn and its impact on the local economy. Here are some excerpts.”
“Q: What have been the effects of the downturn in the local real estate market? A: We have over 600 approved of- and yet-to-be-built-homes in Grass Valley, and that is largely due to the downturn in the market. They’re not pulling the permits to start because of the conditions out there. On a larger scale, the economy here in Nevada County and Grass Valley is very dependent on building. All the businesses really take a hit.”
“Q: Compare the number of homes being sold locally to the homes on the market. A: A couple years ago, homes didn’t stay on the market very long at all. We had the whole phenomenon of competing prices, where people would actually bid, but this is not occurring now. I think I heard a figure that there are more than 1,500 listings on the market right now. I can remember when there were only 400. Yes, the supply is way up.”
The Signal. “Sales of single-family homes in the Santa Clarita Valley are down sharply from a year agos. Sales in the SCV are down 21 percent this year compared to last year, according to real estate agent Pam Ingram.”
“The Southern Regional Association of Realtors reports inventory in the Santa Clarita Valley remains high, with 2,240 active listings in the month of May. A total of 179 single-family homes closed escrow during May, 23.5 percent down from a year ago.”
“The apparent violation of the law of supply and demand has created a recent increase in business for Debbie Penny, Realtor and broker in Santa Clarita. However, she says, ‘I don’t trust it’ll last. I don’t see this as being long-term.’”
“The bargain hunters are out there for those anxious to sell, said Ingram. ‘Right now, the buyers are looking for deals,’ she said. ‘They’re looking for the best house for the least amount of money, and unfortunately, the sellers are having to reduce their prices to be in the market.’”
The Desert Sun. “More homes sold across the Coachella Valley in May than any month this year, but sales volume still couldn’t keep pace with year-ago levels, a new report shows. May home sales were down 30 percent compared with May 2006, according to DataQuick.”
“The median price for resale condos dropped 5.7 percent to $349,000, while the median price for a resale home rose 4.7 percent to $450,000. Higher-end homes seem to be selling better than less-expensive homes, and those sales will likely be reflected in June closings, said Blair Alexander, with Pacific Union GMAC Real Estate in Palm Springs.”
“Although aggressive buyer incentives such as free pool packages helped push May new-home sales to 199 from 166 in April, sales volume was down 48 percent compared with May 2006, DataQuick reported.”
“New-home sales in the valley peaked in the third quarter of 2004, said Fred Bell, executive director of the Desert Chapter of the Building Industry Association. ‘We’ve actually been trending down every month since then on housing starts,’ said Bell.”
“The valley’s overall home inventory swelled to 8,896 in mid-May, according to the Desert Area MLS, prompting home builders such as Lennar Corp. to experiment with online auctions in Rancho Mirage, La Quinta and Indio.”
“Other builders competing in a crowded field of about 120 new home developments have slashed prices as the pool of potential homeowners face tightened lending requirements amid subprime mortgage woes and increasing default notices and foreclosures.”
“Sluggish new-home sales in the valley continue to put pressure on prices, which declined 5.1 percent in May to a median price of $375,000.”
The Record Searchlight. “Affordable Furniture & Oak in downtown Redding is closing. ‘The furniture business up and down California and Nevada is way down,’ said owner Jerry Daniels. ‘Since I moved here, six manufacturers have closed their doors. It’s just dead — scary dead.’”
“Daniels blamed the housing slowdown and the high cost of doing business in California for the decline in furniture sales.”
“Home sales in Shasta County have been down every month this year compared with the same month in 2006. In May, home sales dropped 13 percent from a year ago. The median sales price for a home in May was $275,000, down from $290,000 in May 2006.”
“‘The economy in California is really off, the housing market didn’t help at all,’ Daniels said. ‘There’s a glut of housing now. Three years ago, people were buying houses and buying furniture because they had money.’”
The Bakersfield Californian. “The latest sign of an ailing real estate market appeared Wednesday, when Richmond, Va.-based LandAmerica Financial Group Inc. announced the planned closure of its three Kern County title offices.”
“‘To manage our company responsibly, particularly in a slowing real estate market, we must continually find ways to streamline and reduce costs,’ the company said in a statement.”
“The local offices are ‘under-performing,’ the statement said.”
The Sacramento Bee. “A Dallas-based auction company says it will sell 175 bank-repossessed houses in Sacramento next month.”
“Banks and mortgage lenders, taking back houses after owners default on loan payments, are increasingly turning to auctions as a fast way to unload properties. Seattle-based lender Washington Mutual Inc., owns many of the homes being auctioned in July, according to descriptions on the auctioneer’s Web site.”
“Last month lenders took back 969 houses in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties, according to Fair Oaks-based Foreclosures.com. About two thirds, 651 houses, were in Sacramento County alone.”
“Many are owners who bought at the height of the housing boom with little money down and fell behind on payments as housing values fell.”
The Contra Costa Times. “More than 20,000 Contra Costa County residents and 7,000 residents in Alameda and Solano counties will be eligible for property tax relief this September, county officials said Wednesday.”
“The majority of homeowners receiving the reduction in property tax in Contra Costa County will be in San Ramon, Antioch, Concord and Brentwood, said County Assessor Gus Kramer. The number of reductions is 10 times more than last year’s approximately 2,000 homeowners.”
“‘It was a little more than we thought it would be,’ Kramer said. ‘We found the average drop to be about 8 percent,’ he said.”
“‘Most of these people were those who recently purchased homes from the summer of 2005 and since,’ he said. ‘I’d say 90 percent.’”
“Russ Hall, chief deputy assessor for Alameda County, said that after the county reviewed around 35,000 properties, some 6,135 parcels will be given deductions for the coming fiscal year.”
“That number was higher than the 20,000 Hall estimated in May because Hall said they looked at all properties that changed ownership between June 2005 and December 31, 2006.”
“In Solano County, the county assessor and recorder reduced property taxes on close to 1,000 properties, but almost a third came from one subdivision, said Assistant Assessor and Recorder Lance Houser.”
“‘We had 300 properties that we reduced,’ he said. ‘The resale prices gave us the indication it was the hot spot (of the county).’”
“That subdivision, Trilogy at Rio Vista, provided the county easy appraisals when the developer dropped its prices to new home buyers.”
“Houser said the county assessor is already considering if reduction in property taxes will be needed in next year’s taxes. ‘Right now nobody’s sure what’s going on or if the market is going to continue to decline,’ he said.”
“Although Houser said the numbers weren’t available for all areas of Solano County, he ranked Rio Vista as having the highest number of reduced property taxes, followed by Vallejo and Fairfield.”
“Kramer said that homeowners who can expect a smaller property tax bill will be receiving a card in the mail from the assessor’s office by this weekend. But he downplayed any ideas that homeowners would be happy to see the card.”
“‘They don’t mind saving money, but most would rather see their home rise in value than fall,’ he said.”
‘In May, the median price for a house or condominium sold in Nevada County dropped slightly more than 5 percent to $460,000, down from $484,500 in May 2006, according to DataQuick.’
Last summer I ran into a couple that had just bought a Nevada County house. It just so happened that I had posted an article on declining prices there that very day. I mentioned the article, and the man said, ‘I know, it’s a buyers market.’
His attitude brings to mind a couple of quotes:
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair
“Reality cannot be ignored except at a price; and the longer the ignorance is persisted in, the higher and more terrible becomes the price that must be paid.” - Aldous Huxley
By that guy’s questionable definition, it’s going to be “buyers market” in Truckee (Nevada County) for the next decade.
Some of my San Francisco Bay Area neighbors, aka the Alt-A Bay Area, are beginning to learn what it’s like to be underwater as second homeowners up there in the north Tahoe area.
Surely, some can handle it and don’t care (or will say they don’t care).
Others? Well, not so much.
I like that: “The Alt-A Bay”.
Alt-A Bay - that is perfect.
re. buying when prices just begin to fall and then saying “I know, it’s a buyers market”…
Sad sad sad. He bought the NAR b*llsh#t hook, line and sinker.
Wonder when we’re going to see the first attempts at suing a realtor for being a collosal jerk. Or when somebody on the Hill is going to stand up and say “get these good for nothing creeps out of here”? They’ve had a good run at directing public policy, might be time for them to go quietly away.
Now, let’s see. California has an increasing illegal alien problem. Illegals consume massive amounts of taxpayer dollars. At the same time, property tax assessments are being reduced because of dropping property values.
Something’s got to give.
Excuse me if I’m off base here but how will this work with prop 13? Will some GF that paid $500k in 06 still pay a tax rate on $500k even though his property will be assessed at $216k in the very near future? That’s gotta hurt.
Prop 13 requires assessment at current market value, or purchase price + 2% increase each year, whichever is LOWER.
reduced because of dropping property values. Something’s got to give ?
The fee’s muni’s receive for new construction hurts as much likely more…
What is the prop 13 rule on ‘decreasing’ prop taxes : is it clipped for increases only ? I would think that they have no right claiming decreases.
No, you can have taxes reduced if the property assesses at a lower value.
you can have taxes reduced if the property assesses at a lower value ?
Yes, But, Under prop #13 rules the assessor will be able to raise the assessment back anytime the properties value hits that previous assessment again + still gets the 2% pop each year….This happened in 1991-92…Valuations were dropped but then raised back up to full value just a few years later…
Taxes are reduced to match the drop in value. If values increase later, they can be immediately raised back up to the Prop 13 limit that would be in effect at that time on the property if the decrease had never happened.
I think I am going to challenge the illegal alien / taxpayer dollar issue.
Most illegal alien are single males coming from Mexico to work, right? The first step is to cross the border illegally. After that, they might engage in employment on a cash basis or using a stolen SSN #. In the cash option, they will pay no federal / state / social security / medicare taxes. If they use a stolen SSN #, there will be income tax deductions. Lets follow the stolen SSN # path. Their social security and medicare taxes will be deducted with no long term benefits as they were not be able to claim social security. If they are low income, they might get the employment earned credit, as the majority of the low income people, but they will qualify mostly if they have families, but they have to supply valid SSN #’s for family members / dependents. If they are single, the credit will not be there for them. Everybody will have to pay sales tax, the porer folks a much larger percentage of their income than the rich people. The illegals are not eligible for unemployment benefits, welfare, etc. The only time they might be able to get something is some basic emergency medical services, but they will be charged but they will not pay it. Other benefits will be schooling for their children. As their children are likely to be born here, they are US citizens and I would not deplore the fact that they get an education. Education (and I will add health care) should be more of a right than a privelege. We are after wall the most developed country in the world, right?
If they buy homes, the focus of this blog, those poor folks will have to fork out property taxes, as if they don’t the counties will take their homes.
Overall, I don’t think they take a disproportionate amount of tax dollars.
‘Education (and I will add health care) should be more of a right than a privelege.’
Sorry, I disagree. How can the teacher move forward with the class when she has to stop and try to get little Juan to understand English. I have heard a boatload of teachers complain about this.
I can understand the sentiment. Unfortunately, researchers have shown that native born black and Latino (and poor white) kids pay the costs of illegal immigration in lower quality education. This occurs because the very schools the poor kids of native born citizens attend, schools already likely to have tight budgets, are the very schools for which legally-mandated services for the kids of illegal aliens are required. So, unless you want to tax the wealthy areas and earmark that money for schools with very diverse student bodies–places where much of the diversity is driven by illegal immigration–then you are essentially solving the problem of educating illegal aliens’ kids by reducing access to education of native born poor black, Latino, and white kids. So, what do you want to do?
Here is a citation to a source that makes this point–there are others I can provide:
Betts, Julian R. “Educational Crowding Out: Do Immigrants Affect the Educational Attainment of American Minorities?”
http://econ.ucsd.edu/publications/files/ucsd9804.pdf
There is a published version of this paper from the Russell Sage Foundation, but this is what I could find quickly. Sorry, I do not know how to make this a link, but you may paste it into your browser.
Respectfully,
IAT
Thank you for such a logical and well-reasoned response, IAT. These are the kinds of arguments that we need to be making, instead of the knee-jerk, xenophobic rhetoric.
I agree! My niece is a teacher and she says it’s like baby sitting and it’s almost impossible to teach a class with more than 30 children, not to mention the fact that 15 do not speak English.
‘ How can the teacher move forward with the class when she has to stop and try to get little Juan to understand English. I have heard a boatload of teachers complain about this’
My comment disappeared - I wanted to add that I’d hate to be a kindergarten teacher in California - what a difficult job that must be.
‘Education (and I will add health care) should be more of a right than a privelege.’
At whose expense?
visit a hospital or FREE ESL classes in your school every classroom
add that up
Who pays for heatlh care if it’s a “right”?
Does declaring it a “right” make it free?
How about the right to food, shelter, medical care, education, a car (can’t do much without a car), gasoline (can’t do much without that), car insurance, 2 weeks vacation.
This should be given to every person, legal or illegal, who comes here. Who’s going to do the actual work?
You lost me at the car and associated costs and the paid vacation. Those are priviledges, not rights.
Yup. That’s probably part of the problem; people are finding it hard to see the difference between “needs” and “wants”. Kind of sums up the housing/credit bubble, too!
FYI: IMHO, “Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness” includes healthcare, education, safe food/water, and affordable housing. But not cars, vacations, non-corrective plastic surgery, restaurants or million dollar McMansions. If you want the luxuries, you shouldn’t expect the taxpayers to pay for them. (And there’s something really wrong with a culture that views basic healthcare as a luxury and guaranteed profits in speculative markets as a right.)
Life liberty and the pursuit of happiness DOES NOT mean you can rob Peter to pay Paul - to provide Paul’s education, health care, safe food/water or affordable housing. Take that to Havana.
Exactly Bill…
Cmyst, the founding fathers would choke on the idea that your right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness includes the right to take money from me at threat of imprisonment for all of what you think your “needs” are… you have basically changed “capitalism” to “communism” and “freedom” to “slavery”.
Anchor babies for everyone!
What other country out there makes dropping a kid on one side of the fence vs. the other, a reason for a sense of ‘entitlement’…
Birthright citizenship is the big problem right now. If you are successful in sneaking over the border to have your baby, that baby is automatically a citizen. The law MUST be changed to reflect this reality and require that at least one parent be a full American Citizen in order for the offspring to have citizenship rights. This whole nation of immigrants bit is fine, except that the rest of us immigrants call ourselves “Americans”, while the children of illegals and their offspring call themselves “Latinos”.
With regards to public school, talk about not looking a gift horse in the mouth. I am always amazed at the numbers of folks who are willing to ruin thier kids lives because they paid their taxes and feel entitled… High price to pay. Public education will be fixed when folks simply stop sending their children and take responsibility for their own lives and that of their kids, instead of hoping some babysitter will do it for them.
Except that it’s a bit more than a simple law. It’s in the Constitution (14th amdt) and would require repeal or another amendment. I don’t suggest repeal, since the 14th is essentially what makes blacks US Citizens.
Great point, the 14th amendment needs to be amended to reflect the new reality.
I couldn’t disagree more strongly. There’s a reason that after 220+ years our Constitution has only been amended 27 times and still fits on one page. It should be soooooo hard….
Besides, I’m pretty sure the Constitution already says a thing or two about border security, and nothing is being done on that, so what good will more words do?
Also, repeal the 17th!!!! (hobby of mine)
The big costs to our society from illegals are public school costs ($11,000/year for each illegal alien offspring for 12 years) and medical costs ($5,000 a year on average until death for each illegal alien offspring).
Illegal aliens and their offspring do not acquire anywhere near the level of education necessary to obtain employment that will cover the taxes they consume. And it’s the illegals and their offspring that in no small way fueled the subprime no money down interest only liar loan market.
Now, the state of California is adjusting property taxes downward while welfare for illegals is increasing. As to your statement that illegals are not entitled to welfare: why should that stop the government from giving it to them? They’re not even supposed to be here but hey, no problem.
bombo buster–>Overall, I don’t think they take a disproportionate amount of tax dollars.
you ve got be kidding right?. go down to county general and see for your self. ER packed everyday with hundereds of people . while I was working there, IIRC about 70% of women giving birth were illegal.
Dealing with the school system, you would be shocked with the amount of money spent on teaching these kids.
how about the gang problems getting out of control with the police being overwhelmed.
How about neighborhoods being destroyed by 20+ people sharing the same house with all their cars, loud music.
I could go on and on.
Went to parents day at my daughter’s High School (in Wichita, Kansas back in 1998) About half the students were Latino….asked the daughter “WTF????” Said that they were all kids of illegals, knew how to speak Spanish, but not how to read or write it.
So yes, Uncle Sugar is teaching Latinos how to read and write Spanish……..
Don’t get me started about the daycare center for the STUDENT’S KIDS!!!!!!!
I’ve felt for a long time that eventually all the idiotic/moronic/totally ridiculous stuff that goes on in this country is eventually going to overwhelm the people that use common sense.
The costs of illegals are many and mostly hidden. Roads and other major infrastructures are placed under much greater stress and need replacing / upgrading much faster. Schools are included in the infrastructure class. ER’s have mostly closed in many areas and now ER is hardly available to anyone. In reality the costs are staggering. The reduction of quality of life is incalculable. Wages are driven down and a whole under under class is created. Personally, I would pay another $0.50 for a head of lettuce, and feel good that the person who picked it was able to provide a fair living for their family without having to steal some poor shmuks SSN and live in some tent city in the hills and valleys like we have throughout San Diego.
Thank you .
And I have to say, from working in the Central Valley, migrant farm workers are far less likely than white residents from running up a bill and then skipping payment. The migrant farm workers paid their bills for their pets and they didn’t try to haggle. If they couldn’t afford it, they didn’t pretend they could and leave us with a bounced check like so many citizens do who apparently want the benefits of socialized medicine without have to pay the taxes for it.
I’m really grateful not to live in fear and anger regarding the issue of immigrants in this country. I hope that all of the haters on this blog (who otherwise seem to be very intelligent and insightful folks) are able to find some peace and just love their fellow man without concern for the color of their skin or the name of the piece of land that they were born on.
I know how easy it is to hit the “Add comment” button prematurely.. and of course you neglected to specify “illegal” immigrants.
Ok. You open your wallet first.
May I suggest the following…that the users of cheap immigrant labor (agriculture, meat packing, janitorial services, etc.) should be made to pay for the schooling and health care of the “guest workers”. There is NO reason why local tax payers should have to pay for the extensive schooling and health care needs of so many low paid, lower-educated immigrants and their children. In addition, these industries should pay *extra* to bring local schools back in line with the performance they had just 25 years ago. The added burden of educating so many students lacking proficiency and English skills has helped degrade our local schools for *all* students. Let the businesses that most profit from the employment of “guest workers” also make good on the care of “guest workers”, instead of passing the costs (both economic and school quality) to the local taxpayers.
I realize that these businesses will just pass on these costs to the consumer; however, by doing this, they will be passing on these costs to ALL consumers, including those in OTHER parts of the country benefiting from cheap farm products, etc. Let the rest of the country share in the expenses of a “guest worker” program, and relieve local hospitals and schools (and taxpayers) from having to pay the costs.
WalMart gets a lot of flak because they force out mom and pop operations and pay low wages, expecting the local governments to take care of health care costs of their low wage employees. How is this any different than what AgriBusiness, the meat packing business, etc., do with illegals/”guest workers”, other than the fact that AgriBusiness (et al) ALSO wants the taxpayer to pick up the tab for education as well? And after picking up the tab for education, what is the quality of education that the legal kids (both current and past immigrant) get? Abysmal.
Again, I realize that these costs will be passed on to the consumer. However, by doing this, at least the *other* states of the union would have to pay the associated societal costs as well (through higher prices), and not just the local hospitals, school systems, and governments of the border states. If New York consumers want cheap lettuce, let them pay the costs of educating and providing health care for the workers (and their dependents) that pick the crops. Don’t expect *us* in the impacted areas to subsidies their low cost food fantasies.
“We are after wall the most developed country in the world, right? ”
What are you smoking? This is 2007. We are running monumental govenment deficits, our infrastructure is crumbling,our military is overextended and exhausted, the dollar is tanking, the systemic risks to the financial world are mounting, public education is at a nadir, 47 million American citizens are unable to find or afford any health insurance, drug costs are prohibitive, umemployment and underemployment is growing, the housing market is crashing, and you think things are swell. So fine, that we should shoulder the costs of another third world country, and accomodate and pay for how many tens of millions of their citizens?
Most developed country in the world??Quality of life?? Check out Norway, Sweden, Denmark, New Zealand, Iceland, etc.
I was in Oslo only yesterday…what a great place!
Tell all the builders in California that illegal aliens are a bad thing. Some of you folks need to get your head outta Rush Limbaugh Land and into somewhere closer to reality…
who gives a damn about builder, if they cant afford to build, tough sh*t. all the better stop building.
What? I’m pretty sure builders know that illegals are bad once they get caught employing them. Who’s Rush?
I understand the sentiment to not penalize little kids for their parents’ law-breaking. Unfortunately, research indicates that the current system penalizes poor native born kids of all races. I tried to post a link to some of that research but I think that post got eaten. So, for one example, search in google scholar for Julian Betts and the title “Educational Crowding Out.”
Illegal immigration costs are largely paid by the poor, and this is one example. So, being humanitarian toward illegal aliens is to oppress native born poor citizens, unless you directly address their plight (e.g., poor schools, no jobs, and so on).
IAT
Some wack job that has excellent prescription drug “benefits”.
I guess 78% if America listens to Rush Limbaugh because that’s the % that opposed amnesty. As for your homebuilder buddies, tought sh*t. How about paying fair wages?
It’s amazing that millions of houses were built in the 1940’s-1970’s when there was very little immigration, legal or illegal. Houses were much more in line with salaries. Now after we get this supposed cheap labor from illegal aliens, the prices skyrocket. Maybe we should get back to American labor, which seems cheaper and of better quality. Many houses from the 1940’s are still standing 60 years later. How many of today’s McMansions will be standing in 30 years?
I don’t care about the minutae .. i don’t care if some special interest groups are financially hurt.. or inconvenienced.. or feel slighted.
You gotta find a new nanny or gardener and it’ll cost you another $45 a month? Tough titties.
Tomatoes cost another dollar per? To fricken bad.
The law is the law and govt is bound to enforce it until we change the law.
Millions are ready, willing and waiting to migrate to the USA through proper channels. If we want or need more immigrants, raise these quotas.
rant/off
Yeah, the education system…one of the worst in the country (and I’m a public school teacher)
“A Dallas-based auction company says it will sell 175 bank-repossessed houses in Sacramento next month.”
May, or may not, mean anything. If an unlimited auction, it will impact both future appraisals and the available buying pool. But in recent auctions, banks are setting minimums based on the mortgage amount…and then pull the offer if not met. We still have at least a year of delay built into the system. One more long winter praying for spring buyers, then…maybe…panic? Who knows?
Wow. “..Last month lenders took back 969 houses in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties, according to Fair Oaks-based Foreclosures.com. About two thirds, 651 houses, were in Sacramento County alone….”
According to Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking (BMIT), they only sell about 1500 homes in that market each month. If the lenders are taking back 950 homes/month, and the foreclosure show is just getting started, it seems the tsunami of foreclosures is going to swell the inventory of listings.
And if the lenders are going to sell these houses at auction, what will the realtors do when the majority of all eligible buyers are taken out of the buying pool, when they attend and buy at auction. And what will the auctioneers do as the buying pool is overwhelmed with supply and dries up. Hmmm, Realtors get “broker” and prices get cheaper.
If you buy now, you are a sucker. If you buy in 2009,10 or 11, you may get a good deal.
How are things on the ground in Tahoe? I hope the fire is under control.
last i heard this morning is it was 55% contained after jumping a fire break Tuesday, crossing highway 89 and threatening Tahoe Keys, expensive lake front area(evacuated).
but i also learned that the fire can smoulder underground for perhaps weeks.. crews are now spending most of their time “cleaning up” these burned areas.
And someone said a telephone pole struck by lightening has been known to support such smouldering for months.
So, although it may be officially 100% contained in a week or two, i don’t think anyone will relax until the rainy season.
looks a bit better than it did 10 hours ago.
70% containment. July 3rd is a target assuming, among other things, that the weather cooperates.
This Sac news station page supposedly updates on the fire hourly:
http://www.news10.net/display_story.aspx?storyid=29663
not sure if this it OT, but saw my first sign-twirler here the other day (W. Colo), also am seeing signs (one was a hwy billboard) for RE auctions. We may be behind, but it appears we’re off and running.
The best thing I saw in a while on Chapman Ave in Orange, the guy had a female mannequin holding the sign with an some motor moving the sign back and forth. Sign twirlers are being outsourced, by mannequins!
It’s not really outsourced unless the mannequins were made in China, is it? LOL
Wow - factory workers, movie stars, and even sign twirlers becoming victims of automation!
Okay, I just looked up some laws on this, and the reason that human sign twirlers are allowed (or not prohibited at least) is that it is a possible free speech issue because people are allowed to carry signs in public. However, putting up an automatic sign twirler could be a violation of signage and/or advertising on public property restrictions, as the human element is removed. You should report the joker.
“‘The economy in California is really off, the housing market didn’t help at all,’ Daniels said. ‘There’s a glut of housing now. Three years ago, people were buying houses and buying furniture because they had money.’”
This blog reports day after day the report from California’s Real Speak that the economy is great, air is exiting slowly …. blah blah. Now this clown brings bad news?
“Three years ago, people were buying houses and buying furniture because they had money.”
No, three years ago lenders were giving out as much money as anyone wanted as long as they could fog a mirror.
What happens to all that furniture and electronics that was bought on no payments until 2009?
(OT but I had to share this, I spit my drink out.)
I was trolling over at the Register the local paper for Never, never land OC. I stumbled on this statement in the blog, and the best part is he is serious…OMFG!!! I literally spit my drink out laughing when I read this, this is comedy gold people and this is not out of the norm for this area…..comedy GOLD!!!
This is just more GLOOM AND DOOM from Lansner. This info is old! Escrows take 30 to 60 days to close and then the closed info is available to newspapers. Only the Realtors know what is happening right now because they are in the thick of it. It is not all bad out there. Have you heard the Gary Watts forecast for example? Oh Yea, I forgot that Good news does not sell newspapers! ! ! I gues we won’t be hearing about Gary in this column.
I just had to share that one, friggen GOLD Jerry GOLD!
Poor sad Dip $hit, there are always these clowns trying to dance after the band has left.
“Have you heard the Gary Watts forecast for example?”
I thought Gary Watts moved to Siberia after his “15% is in the bag for the OC” prediction didn’t quite materialize last year.
The realtor call to their authority is the most pathetic of their weak tactics.
I already posted on that thread at OCR.
to Cyberia
We get these sort of people on the Sacramento Bee claiming the Bee too. These are the sort of people that if you meet them at a bar, you never know whether to laugh or toss your drink in their face.
-bah should be claiming the Bee is trying to kill the RE market too.
“Many are owners who bought at the height of the housing boom with little money down and fell behind on payments as housing values fell.”
Why on earth would you fall behind on your payments because the “value” of your house dropped? I would not fall behind on a car payment and it’s value is going down. Of course we all know the answer!
aarrrrgghhhh… “they can longer make the payments because their house is going down in value”. Been hearing this a lot this week. If they repeat it enough, and reporters don’t call them on the non-logic of the statement, we can expect to hear it again and again. We’re in the process of becoming empty-headed zombies in this country when stupid, illogical statements like that get thrown around and accepted at face value.
The only way that statement could possibly have meaning is if these people were paying their mortgage not with income but with HELOCs or loans that are no longer available as the property value assesses lower. And if that’s what this a$$wipe really means, then that’s what he needs to say.
I am one of those that watches the Nevada County (California) market very carefully. I also stay in close touch with the job market. Prices are going to fall, fall, fall.
One more point, the house I rented in Penn Valley (Nevada County) in 1999 sold for $78,000 (in 1997). Asking price today is $449,000.
Even the most ridiculous of markets aren’t up 450% in 5 years…are they?
We rented a house that sold for 28k in 1999 in downtown Riverside, CA (historical district). Same house was sold for 435k 6 months ago! I am still friend with the next door neighbor and he said that the owners have recently abandoned the home and its now in the beginning stages of foreclosure.
Thanks Alan Greenspan and the “Do Nothing” Fed!
Let’s party - in Riverside - no less…
(435/28)^(1/8)-1 = 40.9% annual gain
41% a year for 8 years. Count ‘em! 8 years.
Boy, am I glad there wasn’t an “asset” bubble in housing in California… unrecognizable by our very own FOMC.
Aw, c’mon Riverside was undervalued!
Sorry, I couldn’t resist. That’s what everyone tells me about Portland to explain why houses that sold for $250K in 2002 are now selling for $550K.
Same thing in Seattle sleepless. It’s not *at all* astounding that that home that was 180K in ‘97 is now 1.2 million when you just consider how incredibly UNDER-valued it was in ‘97!! That’s why these astronomical prices make so much sense!!! Because everything was just so dirt cheap before the runup!
Incredible that the whole nation wasn’t flocking to Seattle in the ’90s to buy our formerly WAY undervalued homes. Kind of like the flippers who were heading to Buffalo last year for cheap RE. Funny they didn’t pile into Seattle in the 90’s.
Sorry, I couldn’t resist. That’s what everyone tells me about Portland to explain why houses that sold for $250K in 2002 are now selling for $550K.
Portland is a nice town. I could almost buy the “undervalued” line if it actually had a job market.
“Those who fear foreclosure are slashing their prices.”
ann’s favorite quote of the day.
We rented a house that sold for 28k in 1999
Oh man I used to love those kinds of houses. You could always cut open another window.
I am willing to bet any $29k house in 1999 was pure junk and in the ghetto. Dad sold his old house for about $100k back in 1995 and that was in FL, not CA!
Grator fool belief. Plenty of stupied buyers around but perhaps a few are seeing the light. The lenders will stop them now as they have made the big money as most have sold out/turned over these “bad” loans to other suckers like pension funds etc.
What a mess but was set up by the “big boys” who have hidden their profits and will take years to discover where all the money went. You can count on the SEC and our DC gang to help, can’t you???
Where do some of these Aholes, sorry a freudian type, I mean Realtors, get their names from ” Chauncey Poston”. BHWAA…
It sound like an anagram.
This also reminded me of Chauncey Garnder from the Peter Sellers’ film ‘Being there’. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Being_There
Quote “His simplistic, indeliberate utterances, which mostly concern the garden of which he was once steward, are interpreted as allegorical statements of deep wisdom.
Peter Sellers as Chance, the gardener.Rand, a dying man, is also the confidant and adviser of the US President (Warden), whom Chance has “seen on TV”. In their meeting, Chance’s remarks about how the garden changes with the seasons are interpreted by the President for economic and political advice. He makes similar quotes in a TV speech and as a result Chance, as Chauncey Gardner, quickly rises to national public prominence.
He becomes a media celebrity with appearances on TV talk shows, and is soon on the A-list of the most wanted in Washington DC society. Public opinion polls start to reflect just how much his “simple brand of wisdom” resonates with the jaded American public who think him a genius”…
May NAR can quote from him.
“Chauncey Poston .. It sound like an anagram”
any stucco phone
sycophant on cue
Today’s count of California REO for countrywide is at 1765. Using Q4 median of 548K, that’s 9.7B in REO, just at Countrywide.
Nothing to see here folks, move it along…
‘Tis a mere flesh wound.
And it’s probably contained.
I wish this was true… Unfortunately it is “just” 0.97B or 970M.
It’s 7% of net worth though and isn’t some of that net worth based on “fuzzy” income accounting on payment option loans.
He was calculating a 10X leverage which is normal today.
test
Nevada and Shasta county…wow! Those who don’t know have to realized how isolated and far away some of these areas are. Grass Valley is just not that big of a town, and you don’t have young people longing to live in the country.
And putting track homes in such beautiful country just ruins the charm completely.
Reminded me of a house I’ve watched for the past few years - out in the middle of barren adobe country between Delta and Grand Junction, Colo., in what we call the “Stinking Desert” - somebody put a plain jane modular up on HUGE stilts - it set there for a year and I wondered when the wind would blow it over - then they came and built a first story under it, also very ugly, and a set of stairs going up to the modular (as the main entrance) that would get you in shape right quick. The whole thing looks like something out of a Ray Bradbury story. It’s a redneck-looking place with no landscaping except for old “collectable” pickups and flatbed trucks. A good 20 miles to town and something from the Grapes of Wrath. can’t even drive up the long road to it when it rains because of all the mud, plus expansive soils from the bentonite in the clay.
They listed it the other day at $895k with a realtor.
I’m thinking maybe it’s some kind of inside joke…
WTF? Forbes of all magazines published this?
http://tinyurl.com/yrek48
“Don’t Buy That House
The dream of owning your own home is as American as apple pie–and (supposedly) better for you. Over and over, we are told that homeownership will make you happier, healthier and wealthier. Heck, it’s even supposed to make you a better citizen.
Of course, there are times when, depending on your age, your savings and your income, buying a home can be a smart decision and an excellent way to build wealth. But is buying a home really such a universally good idea?
It’s hard to separate fact from propaganda.
….
But to realize that America’s mania for home-buying is out of all proportion to sober reality, one needs to look no further than the current subprime lending mess. In the last decade, riskier lending practices combined with historically low interest rates and federal subsidies have encouraged a wave of low- and moderate-income households to buy homes.
As interest rates–and mortgage payments–have started to climb, many of these new owners are having difficulty making ends meet. At the moment, a record 250,000 mortgages are in foreclosure–that works out to more than 0.5% of the entire U.S. mortgage market.
Those borrowers are much worse off than before they bought. “There’s the loss of the initial investment, ruined credit ratings and the psychological trauma associated with foreclosure and being evicted,” says William Rohe, co-editor of Chasing the American Dream and a professor of urban studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
…..
So if something in your gut–or on your bank statement–tells you that now is not the right time to buy, resist the pressure. There may be no place like home, but there’s no reason you can’t rent it.”
They’re reading this blog! Ben should get royalties.
“There’s the loss of the initial investment”
OK, so lot’s of folks didn’t have an initial investment - that’s what 100% (or more) financing was for. I agree with the main gist of the article, but I just couldn’t resist pointing out this item. Oh, and they don’t mention the tax bite after a foreclosure (1099 on forgiveness of debt) - that can really leave a mark.
Good points. Also, if these people are so smart and willing to provide advice did they ever stop to say, “whoa, 25% appreciation for 3 years running seems a little odd doesn’t it?”
Wasn’t Forbes the media outlet that put out the story about the “savvy” investor in Arizona that didn’t know where his houses were?
Gag.
Thankyou Forbes. Better late than freaking never.
” and the psychological trauma associated with foreclosure and being evicted”
we really need to see alot more “trauma”, at least here in coastal san diego.
In other news, the mortgage Implode-o-Meter is up to 91.
A story of woe.
My daughter’s good friend (approx 22 yrs old) just bought a 3 acre double wide for $150K in the outback of Tucson. The place was going into foreclosure last Friday and the kid had not gotten his loan approved, so there was hope he would not close!! I tried to talk some sense in the kid.
But NO, my wife( the escrow agent) got an extension on the foreclosure, and they closed yesterday. AArgh
Today, a phone call from the wife that there had been a $300 error in payment, and the friend needed $300. Could we help him out in exchange for changing out the motor in my Jeep. Yes, of course, says the smart husband.
I had hoped for foreclosure and post it here with glee, but instead I just contributed to payment hell for a FB. But, an engine exchange would cost $800 any where else!
Don’t feel bad, they would’ve just found someone else to help commit folly. They’re young and will eventually be able to recover.
Yeah but 150K for a trailer at the peak is still really sad. And gross. And a few acres in the desert doesn’t make up for much either. They’re gonna spend a lot of years living this one down.
Too bad they didn’t read the Forbes article.
Congrats to all AHM shorts. Now if only CFC and DSL would drop….
“Higher-end homes seem to be selling better than less-expensive homes,”
Bingo!!! Exactly what is happening here and keeping the median price flat or even moving up.
This spring we have seen the last charge of the equity locusts who continue to much the high end “crops”.
Once they are exhausted there will be absolutely nothing left to sustain the high end and the median will start dropping and gain speed as it does so.
In Nevada County, an older, three-bedroom house that once would have fetched more than $400,000 now sells for well under that bar.
Just as a quick reminder and sanity check: ten years ago, $400,000 would buy a decent house in Santa Monica.
10 years ago a 1400 sqft’er in West L.A. was 250k.
Now it’s 1.2 million.
I laugh when the commentators on CNBC say, “Sure we’re in bubble! Prices have doubled over the past 10 years”. In L.A., only doubling the value of your house is a recession.
A couple years ago, homes didn’t stay on the market very long at all. We had the whole phenomenon of competing prices, where people would actually bid, but this is not occurring now.
As soon as sellers realize that it is too late to sell at 2005 prices, we will have price competition once again, but this time it will be the sort of competition that occurs in a normal market, i.e., sellers competing with each other to offer buyers the best price, instead of buyers outbidding each other in a speculative frenzy.
It was a buyers auction, this time itll be the sellers underbidding each other. As a first time buyer, I can’t wait to finally get a nice big house for $50k and not some inflated price
They’re looking for the best house for the least amount of money, and unfortunately, the sellers are having to reduce their prices to be in the market.
How come no one ever called it “unfortunate” when buyers had to increase their bids during the boom years?
Interesting list on http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/28/real_estate/most_affordable_housing_markets/index.htm?postversion=2007062814
The median affordability in the US is 52.6%. Which translates to a price income ratio = 2.77 !
(Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ $55,800.00 $155,000.00)
Most places in California are around 8 (price/income) according to this list.
I read this blog everyday. Hardly comment, but I have. I sold my condominium 1 1/2 years ago. I am 35 years old. I bought it for 90K in 1998. Never used it as an ATM. Profit was 270K (have it in CD 5.2%). I sold it because I wanted to move to a home. Looked at so many homes but started to do my own research. I just thought homes where to expensive. When I sold I rented it back for 1 year. I decided to wait and rent. I recently moved to Bonita, CA. Rent is $2,100.00 beutiful home. On the Bonita Golf Course with pool and jacuzzi. Got a great deal. The owner couldn’t sell. Was asking for 899K then 699K but still didn’t sell. All I can say is that I love to rent. Anything happens and I just call the property management company and they fix it. The condo that I sold are now selling for 230K - 260K unbelievable. I am just happy I found this blog. The realtor that I had doesn’t talk to me. I guess he is mad because I decided to rent. Oh well. At least I am happy.
There are several people I work with who, when asked if I am going to buy a house, I tell them no. Not for several years. They react with sadness. For me or for them? We know the answer.
You’ve done well. Keep reading this blog Veronica and don’t get reeled back in by false bottoms. The RE prices are going to slide for several years. There are still stupid loans out there (no credit checks, and so on), so there are still stupid buyers today who will be foreclosed in a couple of years. The stupidity is still going on.
“…and unfortunately, the sellers are having to reduce their prices to be in the market.”
“Unfortunately” for who?…
Not for potential buyers.
Not for the many prudent folks that have been priced out of the real estate market over the past few years.
Not for real estate agents who might actually get some sales if prices actually drop substantially.
Ok,… well, maybe for the greedy sellers.
But why are lower housing prices prices always looked at being a negative?
Ah, but the agents much preferred soaring prices with no relation to incomes or rents, because their commissions went up that week, and they couldn’t care less about the effect on anyone else or the economy as a whole, nor did they consider (or perhaps, just failed to grasp) how that scenario would play out in the years to come. (Oh yeah, 20% a year, indefinitely, that’s just how real estate works… liars and idiots…)
Just remember, when you read Realtor™, think “greedier, less insightful, and more deceitful than the worst used car salesman,” and you’ll be on track with their thinking and their role in the system. And when you think about why their views are the ones being reported in the MSM (e.g., that it’s “unfortunate” when prices fall), just remember who pays the advertising dollars here.
realtors suck.
This blog gives hope to the return of normal and affordable home prices. But I live in Cupertino California, I could sell my home for $1,300,000. My house is a 50 year old wooden box with 14 windows (old, small 1,500sf and junky). Selling now and start renting would probably be the smartest thing for me to do. But when you have a wife who has watched the value climb for years it is hard. (sad)