July 2, 2007

The Snowball Continues To Roll Down The Hill

The Post Dispatch reports from Missouri. “Christopher Miller wanted an old house with the amenities of new construction. Instead, he found a new home with the character of an old house. And despite numerous upgrades, he got it at a bargain price. Miller expects to pay $315,000 for a 2,200-square-foot house in St. Louis’ Shaw neighborhood that would have cost $400,000 not long ago.”

“‘The sales manager at McBride & Son Homes said, ‘Tell me what you want, and we will put it all together and then crunch the numbers,’ Miller said.”

“With sales sluggish, many builders are offering incentives, from free cars to discounts of up to $80,000 or $90,000, said Curt Johnson, vice president of new homes for Coldwell Banker/Gundaker.”

“The executive VP of the Home Builders of St. Louis and Eastern Missouri, Pat Sullivan, said, ‘It seems buyers have gone into a cocoon. It’s not a big deal when it’s just a few people, but when the snowball continues to roll down the hill, it becomes a significant factor.’”

“The biggest hit, Sullivan said, has been in the price range most builders are in: the low $200,000s to $500,000.”

“At Chesterfield-based Taylor-Morley Homes, Missouri permits were cut by more than half from 2005, to 148 last year. Bill Taylor, CEO, said job cuts weren’t unique to his company. ‘We have probably had two to three rounds of unfortunate layoffs over the last year. About a 30 percent reduction in staff overall,’ Taylor said. ‘But that isn’t unlike a lot of other builders.’”

“Taylor-Morley isn’t the only company trying to sell excess land holdings, said Randy Mayer, CEO of St. Louis-based Mayer Homes. But that strategy has limitations, given the slow market. ‘Reality is, there are no buyers (for the land) out there,’ Mayer said. ‘Most builders have also had too much staff.’”

“When the market was booming, ‘we were receiving price increases from our contractors on a quarterly basis,’ said Brett Hardesty, president of Hardesty Homes, based in Chesterfield. ‘Now we are refusing to accept increases because business is slower. Everyone is working harder on tighter margins.’”

“Although builders are used to ups and downs, most are scratching their heads over the large decline in sales. ‘Other prior downturns have been inflation- and interest-rate-related,’ Mayer said. ‘This was neither.’”

“The president of the Home Builders Association of Greater Southwestern Illinois, Matt Belcher, says problems in the subprime loan market have derailed a recovery. ‘The industry was starting to turn back around, and the subprime market took a swing at the industry,’ Belcher said.”

“The incentives are getting larger, especially in new house subdivisions with only a few homes left to sell, said Tom Malone, broker salesperson for Coldwell Banker/Gundaker. ‘Some of those who bought earlier are having buyer’s remorse for having paid full price,’ Malone said.”

The Detroit Free Press from Michigan. “Michigan’s sour housing market is pushing more sellers to slap rent-to-own signs in their front yards to lure buyers. At the same time, more purchasers are opting to get into homes using this nontraditional method, some real estate agents say.”

“Agents say the surge in rent-to-own deals in the region can be attributed to the increase in foreclosures, bad credit resulting from job cuts, homes sitting on the market too long and people not having enough money for a down payment.”

“Jaye Simpson of Nextpointe Real Estate Service in Troy, said the jump in her business is due to a decrease in subprime mortgage lending. Such loans are designed to assist buyers who have damaged credit.”

“‘Since that particular portion of the industry is shrinking, rent-to-own is now a new and more popular strategy,’ she said.”

“Dennis Fassett, owner of Michigan Property Solutions Group in Franklin, said people just aren’t saving enough. ‘So the result is that when something happens, even something small, people can’t recover and they end up losing their homes,’ Fassett said.”

“Jeff Wilkinson’s Ypsilanti home has been on the market since September 2006. After losing his manufacturing job and moving to Salt Lake City, the 32-year-old is now offering a rent-to-own deal.”

“‘It’s kind of a rough market right now,’ he said. Wilkinson is deciding whether he or the future tenant will pay for maintenance. ‘I hadn’t thought that far ahead,’ he said, adding that he’ll likely have the renter pay for repairs.”

The Sandusky Register from Ohio. “The Erie County Sheriff’s office has a record number of houses that will go on the auction block at 10 a.m. July 10 and 31 at the Erie County Courthouse. Eighteen properties are listed to go on sale July 10 and 49 are listed to go on sale July 31.”

“‘This is the most we’ve ever had,’ said Judy Schwochow, secretary for the civil division of the Erie County Sheriff’s office. ‘We seem to be climbing.’”

“So far this year, the sheriff’s office has received 208 foreclosed properties to sell at its auctions. The sheriff’s office handled 308 properties the entire year last year.”

“Properties for both dates range from the appraised value of $21,000 up to $570,000, which is the most expensive property listed for sale on July 10.”

“A house…in Huron is listed as the highest-priced property up for sale on July 31. The property has an appraised value of $312,000. The starting bid is set at $208,000. Most properties are located in Sandusky, Huron and Berlin Heights and some are in Vermilion and near Vickery.”

“Thom Shaffoe, president of the Firelands Association of Realtors, said the spike in foreclosed properties does not surprise him. ‘We’re probably going to see more sheriff sales as time goes on,’ he said.”

“Shaffoe said there are a number of reasons why foreclosures are steadily rising. Job changes, company down-sizing, mortgage industry changes and national lenders offering loans that borrowers might not be able to pay are just a few of the factors he attributes to the increasing number of foreclosures.”

“‘Everything is relative to money,’ he said.”

“Earlier this week, U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown joined a banking subcommittee hearing on the mortgage lending industry and called for Congress to act to stem the tide of foreclosures. The hearing focused on the mortgage origination process, abuses in the mortgage lending industry, responsible solutions to protect consumers in the home-buying process and the impact of the proposed solutions on the market.”

“‘We face a crisis in Ohio,’ Brown said at a hearing Tuesday. ‘We have the highest inventory of foreclosed properties in the country and the problem is not behind us.’”




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85 Comments »

Comment by gather no moss
2007-07-02 12:46:48

“‘It’s kind of a rough market right now,’ he said. Wilkinson is deciding whether he or the future tenant will pay for maintenance. ‘I hadn’t thought that far ahead,’ he said, adding that he’ll likely have the renter pay for repairs.”

Yeah good luck with that.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-07-02 12:57:40

My former landlady took a house-trashing family to court back in the 1990s. Although she won her case, she was never able to collect.

And why was that? Well, it was because her illustrious tenants were forever skipping from job to job, and from residence to residence.

Comment by Not Mssing It
2007-07-02 15:00:17

She should have filed a judgment. At least if [they] ever did get on their feet they would forever have that hanging over their heads.

 
Comment by Ravenor
2007-07-02 15:29:50

If she had gotten a judgment, the skippers wouldn’t have been able to close on another house without paying her off.

 
 
Comment by cami
2007-07-02 13:12:41

My thoughts actually. Why don’t I pay your mortgage and cover the maintenance. Would you like it if I picked up the tab for the property tax as well. Nothing like an absentee landlord who makes you pay for the repairs yourself; where do I sign?

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-07-02 13:34:40

Well, if the landlord is a good investor you do pick up the property tax as paid via your rent every month. Your rent should cover all monthly expenses the LL has.

That’s the problem. None of these yahoo nouveau-landlords figured on cash flow. They’re simply thinking the house is going to appreciate 20% a year. After a few years of that, they’ll sell. Again, good luck with that.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-07-02 13:40:19

You’ve decided a good portion of central Tucson’s landlord population. Especially those who’ve purchased in the last five years.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-07-02 13:41:02

Whoops. I meant to say “You’ve DESCRIBED.”

My bad.

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Comment by hd74man
2007-07-02 14:44:24

Dollar at a 26 year low against the pound stearling

Wall Street’s even the talk of the London.

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/fc/Business/us_economy/feature_articles/SIG=12aqaed4j;_ylt=AlzOD2T3V44B7rIcl1Rvw2xv24cA/*http://business.guardian.co.uk/economicdispatch/story/0,,2033730,00.html

 
Comment by Bye FL
2007-07-03 06:03:08

I would walk away, leaving the landlord stuck with paying for repairs. You lose.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-07-02 12:49:21

Now, Moss, don’t be so hard on Mr. Wilkinson. After all, he is offering a rent-to-own deal.

And everyone knows that R2O is a fabulous deal. Nothing like paying above-market rent, right?

Comment by gather no moss
2007-07-02 13:25:15

You’re right Slim. I’m just being bitter since the landlord is stopping by here tonight to check out the broken fridge. I just want so very, very much to shell out some of my money for a repair or a new one. It’s just so very inconvenient for me, I actually had to send them an email. Plus I was planning on getting drunk and beating the kids right around the same time as he’s planning on stopping by after work. Now WTF am I expected to do, cook dinner and clean the dishes? C’mon I’m a renter, those tasks are waaay beyond my skill level.

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-07-02 14:57:15

LOL

 
 
 
Comment by Roanoke_Steve
2007-07-02 12:54:40

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3AwiWJmD37M&refer=home

So Congress thinks they will help the housing industry by tightening regulation now. Does that mean it will be easier to refi an arm before the reset or will it help by making financing easier for a buyer so they can help out a desperate seller?

Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-07-02 13:56:31

“Lenders, in most cases, should verify income levels instead of relying on borrowers’ statements.”

Looks like the regulators are starting to get unreasonable! (A little sarcasm there!)

Comment by KIA
2007-07-02 14:11:56

Wow, that’s going to be a problem. I mean, I make a billion dollars a month, but proving it is going to be difficult.

 
Comment by joe momma
2007-07-02 15:01:25

“Lenders, in most cases, should verify income levels instead of relying on borrowers’ statements.”

In most cases?

 
 
Comment by Pen
2007-07-02 14:22:30

““We clearly have a profound problem,” FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in an interview today. “It is going to get worse before it gets better, and decisive action was required,” she added. “Everybody was asleep at the switch.” ”

isn’t the saying, “asleep at the wheel”?

Comment by Houstonstan
2007-07-02 14:55:19

Yep, she’ll be telling us soon that a rolling stone spoils the broth. You can lead a horse to water but curriousity killed the cat. Take about cutting your nose off while the sun shines. :)

 
Comment by Houstonstan
2007-07-02 14:55:36

Yep, she’ll be telling us soon that a rolling stone spoils the broth. You can lead a horse to water but curriousity killed the cat. Talk about cutting your nose off while the sun shines. :)

Comment by KirkH
2007-07-02 21:00:29

Don’t take a falling knife to a dead cat fight :)

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Comment by In Colorado
2007-07-02 14:58:18

I have heard both versions.

 
Comment by spike66
2007-07-02 20:03:23

“Everybody was asleep at the switch.’’

Yo, Sheila, “everybody” was not asleep, at the switch or elsewhere. Ben Jones was on the job…he could have explained it all to you years ago.

 
 
 
Comment by Patricio
2007-07-02 12:56:36

Man, this is just starting and it is sorta spooky for a better term. Kinda like standing there and a boat coming flying out of the sky….hmm….looks like some big and powerful weather is coming this way from the coast…maybe we should take shelter….

 
Comment by CincyDad
2007-07-02 12:59:25

” “The Erie County Sheriff’s office has a record number of houses that will go on the auction block ”

My inlaws are in Sandusky.

For those of you unfamiliar with Sandusky, Ohio, it is located midway between Cleveland and Toledo, on the shore of Lake Erie. At one time, it was a bustling port city, but today has been reduced to 3 employers and the tourism industry that supports the recreational stuff in the area (The lake erie islands, the marinas, etc.).

The 3 employers are Cedar Point Amusement park, the Ford parts plant, and a Delphi parts plant. Everything else is pretty much minimum wage jobs supporting these, particularly Cedar Point.

The local newpaper claims that the home ownership in the city is around 40%. That means that 60% of the people can’t afford a $60k house.

There is some very nice housing along the bay, but much of it is owned by people from Columbus and Cleveland who keep their sail boats there and come up for the weekend only, during the nice summer months.

The place is absolutely dead in the winter.

I’m surprised there are not 10x as many foreclosures in the area.

Comment by DenverLowBaller
2007-07-02 13:48:56

Don’t forget Callahan Auto Parts! (Tommy Boy, couldn’t resist)

Comment by Smithers
2007-07-02 14:41:10

Nice memory DLB. Classic movie.

Comment by Gatorfan
2007-07-02 15:52:49

My nutty wife knows every word to that movie.

“Helen, you look like a Helen.”

“Housekeeping!”

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Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-07-02 15:29:03

We were at Catawba(near Sandusky OH) yesterday riding along the lake and we saw probably 12 out of 20 houses right on the water for sale, all in a row. My husband said there must by a problem with the properties, but I told him it’s probably 2nd homes that people have to sell because they’re overextended. Those houses have mostly been summer homes and I’m sure most of the owners can’t afford them anymore. There’s literally tons and tons of houses for sale right on the water, where years ago you would only see 3 or 4 maybe. Anyone from Sandusky, Catawba, Port Clinton area that has noticed this?

 
 
Comment by Hondje
2007-07-02 13:00:00

Apologies if this is a repost:

Builders Have Further to Fall
By Nicholas Yulico
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
7/2/2007 6:56 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/homebuildersconstruction/10365737.html

Homebuilder stocks continue to be slammed, and gauging just how far they may fall is getting ever-more difficult.

In the past, the thinking was that you should buy homebuilder stocks when they trade near book value, because historically the stocks head up from there. So long as builders made money from selling homes, or land values went up, the book value would also increase and so would stock prices, the theory held.

That model has been blown up.

The entire homebuilding sector is in danger of reporting losses for the year because of falling housing prices and high inventory levels. At the same time, land values continue to drop, requiring builders to record large impairment charges. Both issues further cut book value at the companies.

(As a reminder, a stock’s book value is simply the stated value of shareholders equity on the balance sheet, divided by the number of shares.)

“These stocks could have a 10% to 15% leg down again because book value keeps falling. It is a moving target,” says an analyst at a hedge fund that is shorting the sector.

Last week, Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) set the tone for the ugly results ahead for the sector, as both firms reported unexpected quarterly losses because of large land impairments, which eroded book value.

As the national housing market remains plagued by high inventory levels of new and existing homes, builders are cutting prices to clear product, which creates near-term cash at the expense of profits.

“It’s going to get uglier. As Stuart Miller at Lennar said, nobody knows where the bottom is,” the hedge fund analyst says.
Impairments Multiply

Investors who thought at the beginning of the year that the worse was behind the homebuilder sector “are getting a rude awakening,” says Alex Barron, senior housing analyst with Agency Trading Group.

“The tidal wave of impairments has started,” Barron says. “They will continue at a high level through the end of the year, and maybe into next year.”

To date, the top 19 public builders have recorded a total of nearly $7 billion in impairments, Barron says. He is not sure if builders are even halfway through the impairment process yet.

This signals further gloom ahead for the stocks.

In a research note last week, Bank of America analyst Daniel Oppenheim reduced his price targets on the homebuilding sector by 8%, because he expects the companies to record more impairments in the future that will amount to another 13% hit to equity. Already, impairments have cut about 8% of builders’ equity.

Oppenheim estimates homebuilder stocks are already trading at 20% premiums to book value after adjusting for these future impairments. He rates the sector neutral.
Cash Concerns

The concept of book value has been key for homebuilders, since otherwise the stocks are trading at ridiculously high price-to-earnings ratios.

Those P/E ratios are set jump further, since Wall Street estimates could end up being very wrong this year. According to Thomson Financial, most analysts still expect builders to be in the black for the year.

But analysts were already very wrong about Lennar and KB Home, as each were expected to report profits last week. Barron expects most builders to be unprofitable this year.

Negative earnings translate into negative free cash flow, which can get ugly at a time when many builders’ debt loads are high.

“If all these companies were unlevered, you could hold them for five years and they would be OK investments,” says a hedge fund manager who remains bearish on housing and is mostly short the sector. But that’s not the case.

Take Hovnanian (HOV) .

At the end of the first quarter, Hovnanian had stockholder equity of $1.86 billion and long-term debt of $2.67 billion. The amounts to a 1.4 debt-to-equity ratio, one of the highest in the industry.

Oppenheim expects the company to record a 20% future drop in book value. With such a hit, the debt-to-equity ratio moves to 1.8.

Put another way, under this scenario, debt would amount 64% of Hovnanian’s permanent capital structure.

Comment by dennis
2007-07-02 13:16:29

Home builders seem to be as ROSY as RE agents. Who can you trust?

 
Comment by packman
2007-07-02 13:31:50

All of this is why I’m still short on some homebuilders. I believe that not only are we still on the downward slope, they’re still on the not-so-steep part of the downward slope, with regards to revenue dropping.

Pretty soon we’re going to need a homebuilder implode-o-meter. Who’s willing to start one up?

 
 
Comment by Renterinaz
2007-07-02 13:02:16

Wasn’t the stated goal of home ownership for all americans the one that the prez was selling? We reached 69% home ownership during the highest peak in this bubble. Now it is coming down, maybe the 69% couldn’t afford it and they needed to get a raise first? Besides when the foreclosures coincide with job loss it will exacerbate the problem. There isn’t any bailing out of this mess, no matter what. Unless they just create more cash out of thin air then maybe, but that will collapse the economy even faster than it already is going. Hmm quite a quandry here.

 
Comment by salinasron
2007-07-02 13:04:33

Just had a good jolt here in Salinas, and no we didn’t fall into the ocean yet; waiting to see the magnitude.

Comment by sfbayqt
2007-07-02 13:39:33

Felt it here a little bit in Dublin, CA. Did you find that magnitude?

BayQT~

 
Comment by sfbayqt
2007-07-02 13:45:13

4.3…. epicenter was near San Juan Bautista .

BayQT~

Comment by salinasron
2007-07-02 17:46:51

Yes I felt it up close and personal. I was prone on the sofa and it got my attention quick enough to move me under a secure beam. More of a jolting type than rolling. I’m about 20 miles from SJB.

Comment by sf renter
2007-07-02 21:15:35

Bitter renters in SF always talk about a little quake to bring the rents and the housing prices down…..

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Comment by BanteringBear
2007-07-02 13:07:12

“Although builders are used to ups and downs, most are scratching their heads over the large decline in sales. ‘Other prior downturns have been inflation- and interest-rate-related,’ Mayer said. ‘This was neither.’”

And this dipstick is the CEO of the company? It’s no wonder the market is so overbuilt. This numbskull can’t even grasp market fundamentals.

Comment by Pen
2007-07-02 13:49:56

“This numbskull can’t even grasp market fundamentals.”

They all believed in the new paradigm.

What didn’t realize that is at some point you are selling to people that don’t have two nickels to rub together, let a lone a pair-a-dimes.

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-07-02 13:58:56

“…at some point you are selling to people that don’t have two nickels to rub together, let a lone a pair-a-dimes.”

Brother, can you spare a dime? ;O)

 
 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-07-02 15:32:38

“Although builders are used to ups and downs, most are scratching their heads over the large decline in sales. ‘Other prior downturns have been inflation- and interest-rate-related,’ Mayer said. ‘This was neither.’”

Too much sawdust in their hair and their brains.

 
Comment by marionsucks
2007-07-02 17:01:31

From central Florida.
The Small Town I live in, population 3900 and has been since the 60’s. Since no one really wanted to live here. there are over 800 houses for sale across the Street from me. Drive around the Neighborhood and 95% of all houses built in the last 3 Years, empty , for sale or rent.

One development down the street 2 years old 90% empty, 2 new developments just started across the Street. 1 huge one 3 mi away.
Out of Stater’s and foreigners the last 3 years were buying lots in developments that were built in the 60’s and 95% empty on ebay for 30k plus that have been for sale for 2k for 45 years, sight unseen. And they bought as many as 100 at a time. New yorkers bought 15 or 20 houses at at time. Again all sight unseen.

The amazing thing is most of these houses are in the 250k range up.
Mind You this is a small town with No Jobs, avg 8 to 9 bucks an hour for skilled labor. Plumbers make 12 or 15 an hour, no Crap! Average home price here was about 60k in 2002.

Now that most Investors have realized this was another big ” Florida Swamp land Scam, and are Bailing ,Sales are down 70% from last Year in the county.

Now get this.

Last year they approved another 15,000 plus houses in this town which still has a Population of about 4 K.

But We Didn’t see this Coming……….. Priceless.

Comment by Bye FL
2007-07-03 06:33:21

What is the name of the towns? How low will prices be at the bottom? If they were $60k in 2002, I am hoping they will be $60k in the near future. There will be such a supply of houses that they have gotta go dirt cheap. Maybe my parents will move there when they retire, maybe even ill move there as I am self employed. A nice, big Florida house in a safe neighboorhood with acreage land for $60k sounds good.

 
 
 
Comment by mrincomestream
2007-07-02 13:11:34

OT-

I got this from here:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/07/foreclosure-hur.html

It’s about T.V. ads that are coming out about losing your house to foreclosure. Located here:

http://www.adcouncil.org/default.aspx?id=435

These ads are truly sickening, they are treating the fallout from this runup like it was a unforeseeable illness or a natural disaster. I’m really at a loss for words. What is the world coming too…

Comment by invest3
2007-07-02 14:28:16

Everybody’s a victim…

 
Comment by Patricio
2007-07-02 15:03:12

Bubble Henry….we should just start naming them also.

 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-07-02 15:37:12

In our county in Ohio they are trying to form a task force to counsel owners who are going into foreclosure and try to teach them ways to try to save their house. Some you can teach, maybe. Some still can’t figure out why they can’t afford their $400,000 house on a $12,000 salary. If people can’t figure out the basic math of how much house they can afford, then they certainly aren’t going to figure out how to keep from going into foreclosure.

 
 
Comment by gather no moss
2007-07-02 13:30:01

“…Instead, he found a new home with the character of an old house.”

OK, no one has commented on this yet. Do you think this means the roof leaks, the furnace needs to be replaced, or that the contents of the septic tank bubble up if you over water the lawn?

Comment by speedingpullet
2007-07-02 13:39:33

LOL, I was wondering that myself.

“All the cons of an old building, with none of the pros of a new one…”

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-07-02 14:09:52

No, it means the columns supporting the front porch overhang are fake, which, more than likely, will result in a complete and total failure a few years down the road. The fake stone facade will fall off. The fireplace won’t burn wood. The faux corbels will blow away in the wind and the rain. The substandard foundation will settle and crack, with the house racking badly. The sheetrock will separate from the already warped wall studs, with the ceiling eventually caving due to insufficient fastening. And those are just the hors d’oeuvres…

Comment by In Colorado
2007-07-02 15:03:02

The fireplace won’t burn wood.

That hasn’t been an option in the Colorado front range for years (as many as 20). New construction cannot have wood burning fireplaces, only the gas variety.

Comment by Ravenor
2007-07-02 15:34:47

Is that due to EPA pollution rules or for fire prevention? I always thought that the Front Range didn’t have inversions…

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Comment by in Colorado
2007-07-02 17:49:45

Au contraire, inversions are a big problem along the front range. When its really bad they ask those with grandfathered fireplaces to not burn wood.

Fires are only an issue in the summer, and no one uses their fireplaces during the summer.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by SE_PDX_renter
2007-07-02 13:30:38

Speaking of landlords this post at the Turner Specuvestor Real Estate Blog mocks tennants and practically accuses one of being an alcoholic.

http://www.portlandrealestateblog.com/realestate/2007/07/investment-real.html#comments

I have a web archive that I would be happy to convert into a JPEG/GIF if anyone wants to link to it (or put it on their blog).

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-07-02 13:44:10

These people are landlords and they can’t even spell the word that describes their customers? As in, the T-word?

 
Comment by sfbayqt
2007-07-02 13:50:15

The account that mentioned the addition of a new wall and a padlocked door was definitely special.

I’d say that was a very bold move alright.

BayQT~

 
Comment by Houstonstan
2007-07-02 15:02:56

I actually found it pretty funny. Reminded me of one of my in-laws whose stepson set fire to rented house down after playing with matches. They were not insured !

 
 
Comment by Sam
2007-07-02 13:41:46

Paulson: Housing ‘at or near bottom’
Treasury secretary says upturn in sector could be far off; cites U.S. consumers, strong job market as reasons for solid global economic outlook.
>>>>on what basis he is saying that the housing market is at bottom

Comment by ShaunT79
2007-07-02 13:58:56

Pumping Paulson back at it again…. Is there a Paulson watch blog yet?

 
Comment by ShaunT79
2007-07-02 14:00:27

Oh by the way, any suprise that he’s pumping with the dollar down 1.1% threatening to break through 80 on the dollar index? Sad. He will lose all credibility. We’ll need another Treasury secretary in a year.

Comment by Tom
2007-07-02 15:33:20

He can always go back to Goldman Sach’s.

 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-07-02 14:19:52

Here’s what he said on April 20: “All the signs I look at show the housing market is at or near the bottom,” Paulson said.

Comment by joe momma
2007-07-02 15:07:51

It is really sad when the people in charge of steering the country are all reduced to cheerleading.

Embarrassing.

Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-07-02 15:41:59

It’s not that they’re cheerleading, it’s that they really are stupid and don’t know how to interpret the signs of a falling market that’s a long way from the bottom.

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Comment by Tom
2007-07-02 15:48:16

They aren’t stupid. They probably think their word is calm and won’t stoke a panic. Like it is a self fulfilling prophecy. By predicting it, it might pull us out of this slump and prevent a recession. I don’t think that, but they do. They know how f*cked we are and are trying to prevent it.

 
 
 
Comment by Tom
2007-07-02 15:34:09

He could play ReRun on “What’s Happening?” The Movie.

 
 
 
Comment by ShaunT79
2007-07-02 14:04:46

BTW, here’s the link: http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/02/news/economy/paulson_housing.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007070216

Notice at the end, he blames the suprime mess on borrowers and lenders. No mention of Wall Street involvement. I would be mad if it wasn’t so funny.

Comment by ShaunT79
2007-07-02 14:08:21

This is for “Pumping Paulson”, above

Comment by spike66
2007-07-02 15:24:29

In the Lying for a Living Sweepstakes, cueball Hank is overtaking such crowd favorites as Learah and Larry Yun. All three of these chimps have zip credibility.

 
 
 
Comment by AshlandRenter
2007-07-02 14:05:09

In the last week, we’ve seen 38 SFH price reductions on the MLS here in Ashland, OR out of 359 total houses on the MLS. Most reductions are in the 4-5% range, but many houses have multiple reductions. I know of some examples with 5 reductions.

Still way too high, but things are starting to move here.

Comment by Pen
2007-07-02 14:16:11

starting to see some of that here in MA, but the prices are still high.

The only properties selling are those that are anywhere “priced right”, which is impossible to truly determine and is a moving target.

 
Comment by roguevalleygirl
2007-07-02 17:35:16

Neighbors house in Rogue River, Or. on the market for 15 months. Asking now down $150 K three months ago. Not even a lookie-loo.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-07-02 22:11:04

Yee-haw!! Keep ‘em coming!

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-07-02 22:11:43

BTW, what are the details? Lot size, house size, price?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by roguevalleygirl
2007-07-03 07:55:51

3 br 21/2b 2900sf 5ac (none usable)

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Pen
2007-07-02 14:18:55

OT…

I heard a good one yesterday on a call in finance show.

The caller was changing careers:

from: R/E
to: medical records transcription

..not that there is anything wrong with the latter, but it ain’t no ladder for the career minded…

Comment by In Colorado
2007-07-02 15:03:59

….plus its being offshored as we speak.

 
 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2007-07-02 14:36:37

Donald Trump, the canary in the coal mine?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBPDURNV1aJk&refer=home

“Three of his properties went bankrupt in the early 1990s.” Let’s see, what was happening to the housing market in the early 90s?

Comment by joe momma
2007-07-02 15:10:09

Trump is a major AHOLE. What a pathetic human being, and even human being is up for debate. Slime.

 
 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2007-07-02 14:42:31

Addendum: Note the 9.3% effective yield on Trump Entertainment 8-year notes. Ouch.

“[His ass is] old and tired, and that’s the problem,” said Justin Sebastiano, an analyst at San Francisco-based Nollenberger Capital Partners. As competitors upgrade, “it’s only going to get tougher for the rest of the year and into ‘08,” he said.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-07-02 17:38:59

True - Trump is a one of the major A$$Holes of the world. The real Taj Mahal in India is a truly magnificant site. Everyone should see it. Most people probably don’t know that it is the world’s biggest TOMBSTONE. A GRAVESITE. A DEATHPLACE. Looks like Trump’s Taj Mahal casino has become the same? My wife says in India it is bad luck to have any kind of replica of a tomb inside the house.

Comment by abuismail
2007-07-03 01:56:00

and it’s a symbol of everlasting love, visited by newlyweds from all over india.

not to mention, the emperor shahjahan used public funds to build it, and had the chief architects limbs broken, and tongue removed to prevent him building another structure excelling the Taj. Some love indeed.

 
 
Comment by abuismail
2007-07-03 01:58:49

and if you think shahjahan was a nutjob, just google “falcon city dubai”

 
Comment by Bye FL
2007-07-03 06:40:31

Let prices fall more and more! Someone mentioned Florida houses for $60k back in 2002. Will Florida really get this cheap at the bottom? A nice new house for $60k sounds like music :)

 
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