Sellers Who Are “Accepting Reality” Sell More Rapidly
The Tribune reports from California. “The median price of a single-family, detached home in San Luis Obispo County inched up 4.1 percent year-overyear in May to $579,540, according to the California Association of Realtors. But the uptick reflects more a change in the mix of the housing market than a strengthening in prices, according to the association’s chief economist.”
“‘The high end of the market is doing much better, so it’s not really that home prices are rising, but that the mix of what is selling is changing,’ explained Leslie Appleton-Young, vice president and chief economist for CAR. ‘We’re seeing less home-buying activity in the lower end of the market.’”
“The number of home sales fell off significantly year-over-year, down 14.1 percent from May 2006.”
“‘Our median home price is skewed by some larger sales. I think that if we looked at the average, we would find that the average home price in the county was flat or even down compared to last year,’ said David Skinner, office manager for Prudential California Realty in Arroyo Grande.”
“While most homes are taking longer to sell, Jim Irving, a broker associate in Paso Robles, said sellers who are ‘accepting reality’ are seeing their homes sell more rapidly.”
The Orange County Register. “Kenneth C. Ketner of Newport Beach was sentenced to 57 months in federal prison Monday and ordered to repay banks $9.27 million he swindled in a mortgage fraud scheme.”
“Ketner was supposed to have been drummed out of the mortgage business in 2001, when his company lost its state real estate license. But Ketner, who was indicted for criminal fraud in 2005, continued to make a living from the mortgage business, according to defense and prosecution court documents.”
“Federal law enforcement officials said his case illustrates the lack of consumer protection in California’s mortgage industry, even from someone who pleaded guilty to mortgage fraud.”
“‘Ken Ketner has admitted to taking advantage of all of the weaknesses available in the mortgage industry to defraud related parties, from lenders to borrowers, all for his own personal benefit,’ said Peter Norell, head of the FBI’s white collar crimes unit in Santa Ana. ‘These types of frauds are serious and worthy of allocating resources to investigate because it hurts everyone involved and takes advantage of those seeking the American ‘dream’ of homeownership.’”
“Ketner currently works as a partner in Danbury Consultants, ‘a company that markets mortgages by direct mail,’ according to an April 9 filing by Sheila Balkan, a criminologist hired by the defense to argue for a mild sentence.”
“Ketner’s former business partner, Michael Cardwell of Phoenix, said Ketner has been doing ‘consulting work,’ but has not been directly involved in writing mortgages. ‘He’s not – he can’t be – in the business,’ Cardwell said. ‘As liberal from a licensing standpoint as California is, there are still background checks.’”
“The California Department of Real Estate, which regulates most licensed mortgage brokers, employs 175 auditors and other enforcement staff to police more than 500,000 licensed real estate agents and brokers, fewer than one per 2,800 licensees.”
“‘Clearly, given the numbers, we’re more reactive and we need people to let us know what’s going on,’ said Tom Pool, a spokesman for the Department of Real Estate.”
The Bakersfield Californian. “Negotiations ended Monday between would-be developer David Crisp and Cal State Bakersfield for a twin 24-story tower project on campus.”
“Carl Cole, Crisp’s former partner…said recent reports in The Californian about a rash of defaults on Crisp-related properties affected the deal. ‘You guys have single-handedly had a big part in this. I have no comment for The Californian,’ Cole said Monday afternoon.”
“Crisp had until June 15 to show he had financing to cover projected costs estimated at $300 million to $400 million and a hotel and construction partner. In late May, Crisp gave The Californian a copy of a letter showing he had received a $1.8 billion line of credit from Neuflithz Wisenthall & Schlumberger, an international investment firm.”
The Central Valley Business Times. “The university says a series of newspaper stories in the Bakersfield Californian about defaults on Crisp-related properties had no impact on the decision.”
“The CSU Board of Trustees in January gave its okay for development of residential, hotel, restaurant, parking and retail space on the CSUB campus and the university says it will look for other partners to accomplish that.”
“‘Within the coming months the university will issue a new request for proposal for a public private partnership that would consist of a hotel and conference center,’ says CSUB President Horace Mitchell.”
From USA Today. “A glut of vacant, unsold homes with swimming pools is contributing to a glut of mosquitoes in the West. They become these little backyard swamps,’ says John Townsend, who runs the mosquito-control office in Arizona’s Maricopa County. ‘Mosquitoes move in and breed up a storm.’”
“Luis Navarro, a mosquito-control officer in Maricopa County, says mortgage foreclosures have brought him more business this year. Some owners don’t drain pools when they move out, and pools that were drained collect rainwater, he says.”
“David Brown, manager of the Sacramento and Yolo County, Calif., mosquito-control office, says growing concern over the mosquito-borne West Nile virus is prompting expanded efforts to identify problem pools. Last year, 4,269 people in the USA contracted the West Nile virus, and 177 died from it, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”
“Sacramento’s mosquito-control operation has asked the Sacramento Association of Realtors for a list of vacant homes with swimming pools. Since May, 400 pools have been reported.”
“The Southern Nevada Health District, which includes pool-packed Las Vegas, relies on neighbors’ complaints to identify pools green with algae. By June 25, the district’s ‘green pool’ count outpaced last year’s numbers by more than a fourth. Many involved vacant homes in the process of foreclosure, environmental health supervisor Mark Bergtholdt says.”
“In central California’s Santa Clara County, mosquito fighters say they can’t check each pool and that people are hesitant to report their neighbors, so the county hires a plane to take aerial photos, says Kriss Costa, community resource specialist.”
From the original post:
“In central California’s Santa Clara County, mosquito fighters say they can’t check each pool and that people are hesitant to report their neighbors, so the county hires a plane to take aerial photos, says Kriss Costa, community resource specialist.”
Here in Pima County, Arizona, we also have a West Nile problem. And did you know that an upturned bottle cap can hold just enough water to be a mosquito breeding ground? Yup, that’s all it takes.
That’s why I have no qualms about reporting neighbors with standing water on their property. Eff ‘em if they don’t like it. Our public health matters most here.
Here are some of the 2Q numbers from the Central Coast that you won’t read about in the Tribune.
REO’s are up 46-66% over the past 3 months.
http://centralcoasthousingbubble.blogspot.com/
Another reason to drink beer out of can!
I know that we all can show these. But this is INSANE. They have no bait or are hooked. http://www.stgeorgerealestateinfo.com/Nav.aspx/Page=http://www.listingpreview.com/idx/11cb12.html
If this is your Aunt or stepdad. Slap the Cr@p out of them. We genXers fund retirement via SSA witholdings. I rent and save.
Somewhat OT, but does anyone else see a recession brewing in the latest auto sales numbers:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/big-3-serve-up-steep/story.aspx?guid=%7B0672475F%2DC478%2D4A2B%2D90B7%2DF93DF58B31D5%7D&dist=hplatest
General Motors Corp. posted a 21.3% plunge in June U.S. light vehicle sales, placing the blame on a planned move away from rental car sales as well as a tough industry climate and aggressive promotions by rivals, the company announced Tuesday.
Uhhh…GM speak for ‘we suck’.
Should have included this. My 76 year old ‘Buy American!’ father came home with a brand new Tacoma last night. Says it is probably the best truck he’s ever seen or driven. When GM loses guys like him, it’s over.
Yep.
I knew a WW2 vet, who said he’d never buy a Japanese car. Then one day, while at the American car dealer service dept, complaining that the car pulled to left, and hearing the reply from the service department, “can’t help you with that, because all cars of this model & year pull to the left, so there is nothing that can be done”…well folks, after that, he bought a Japanese car.
A buddy of mine just had a $4,500 transmission replaced in his Honda with 115,000 miles on it. Well, he paid $800 and Honda picked up the rest.
Sure, these are anecdotal, but I have had similar experiences. Although, Nissan is slipping these these days.
Honda/Toyota will reap the benefits of all the others’ short-comings. They are really customer focused.
Same here. Used to say we would NEVER buy anything other than American.
We now own a Honda, and we LOVE it!
Sorry guys…it’s not the unions that drove the US automakers into the ground, it was very poor leadership that lead to their demise.
It was management, unions and the ridiculous cradle-to-casket union deals
Nowdays if I have a crappy product, I say “I’ll bet this was made in America”. I check the label and sure enough.
It’s a damn shame.
However, if my Motorola Q (smartphone) which I love is made in the US, then there is hope yet!
But some of our motorola phones are a piece of crap. We used to get good service at home and now we get none, even though we have the same company and as they claim many more towers. No one wants to stand behind their products anymore.
I agree, they’re great trucks, but have you checked out the price tags? Waaaay too expensive. The hyperinflation in vehicle prices is something that has managed to fly under the radar. How many people can afford more than $35k for a mid sized truck?
In my mind Toyota real success is based on the fact that concerning 13 y.o. pickup I drive, I bought it used w/100K miles, have driven it another 100K, and it still runs great. Buy a new truck if you want, but a good used Toy will probably out-last any new Ford or GM. That’s a tough legacy to overcome, and they just aren’t making headway.
Remember the old ‘ what’s good for GM is good for the country’? Does the reverse hold, or are they slowly becoming irrelevent?
I know and the JD Powers ratings that GM/Ford pay for wont help. The fictional category of ‘first in initial quality’ is sooooo fake. That doesnt exist, a defect is a defect.
I bought a Dodge three quarter ton pick up with a Cummins turbo diesel new in january of 1998. It’s just shy of ten years old now and the interior still looks new. So does the paint when I bother to wax it. With 145,000 miles on it I’m still on the original brakes and clutch and never had a problem of any kind. This is in spite of the fact that a number of people told me I would have nothing but trouble if I bought a Dodge. I’m still waiting.
Last GM product that I bought was designed by some “ingineer” that had nothing better to do than to put a longitudinal engine into a front wheel drive car, using a trnasverse layout. The end result was that in order to get to certain NORMAL wear and tear parts, like the alternator, you had to remove the engine…. The car lasted until last summer with only 113K miles. Blew a head gasket for no apparent reason (seems to happen) and then I proceeded to leave it out in my back yard. WIll be donated shortly. Sad… Expensive, and last car that I buy from the General…. BTW All maintenace was done according to the booklet!
I bought 1991 honda having 91000 miles and had it till 198000 miles. only thing that i did was change oil and tires. Bought it for $4200 and sold it for $1600
Wifey is getting ready to replace her Accord at 217k+ miles.
She couldn’t do it. First major “repair.” The timing belt and a bunch of other fixes set us back $900.
She saw the bill for my last BMW repair… we agreed my next car will not be German again. Heck, I’ve had fun driving my BMW, but until Honda/Toyota have a quality issue, they and their luxury divisions will be all I look at for a bit.
Sad huh? GM used to set world standards in quality. My Grandpa’s 1974 Cadillac never had major problems and was handed down to many relatives until finally $2+ gasoline killed it a few years back (6 mpg kind of sucks…).
Got popcorn?
Neil
My boss is a “buy American” guy but he’s had it. He bought two Chryslers for his wife the past few years and nothing but trouble. He’s an auto geek too so he takes real good care of them. He’s going with Hyundai next.
pinch-a-penny- see if you can make an electric car out of that puppy.
I don’t buy the price argument. As of two years ago when my husband bought his Toyota Tundra, it was several thousand dollars LESS expensive than the equivalent GM or Ford truck. If it lives up to the brand reputation — and we have no reason to expect it won’t — we will get 50% more miles out of it than we would out of a GM or Ford, too.
quietann:
You’re mistaken. I researched Toyota, Ford, GMC, and Dodge before settling on my GMC two years ago. As far as loaded half ton 4X4’s, Tundra was the most expensive. It varies by market, but I picked up my GMC for about $10k cheaper than the Tundra, with 0% financing to boot, something Toyota doesn’t even offer. You should do a little more research before “buying” anything.
I will never buy anything other than american……anyone who does is an idiot…….really…..no American manu jobs……no economy.
you can have your snag stupid a$s comments, but my dad who is 74 broke down a toyota pickup in ‘84…every 5000 miles had to adjust the valves ……sold the piece of shi@ and has driven fords ever since ……esad
To rtex who spouts that buy only American crap, I have only four words to say:
” V E G A ”
Most dangerous care ever known. Would spontaneously stop running on highway for no reason. Well, not exactly. Turns out it was the Vega’s defective (revolutionary?) aluminum engine…that Chevrolet knew all about from the beginning.
Here rtex, you buy American for me!
Many of those “American” cares are made in Mexico and Canada now while the “Japanese” cars are mostly made in Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Alabama, Texas etc
The problem with the car business is this: There is a disconnect between the manufacturer and the end user of the product. The “in between guy” is the dealer, and the dealer CAN ONLY DO what is in his best short term interest. (If they tied up their service bays in honest attempts to fix all of these lemons then the dealers would be forced out of business.) In the long run under these quality issue dynamics the dealer will continue to operate profitably, but only at the expense of the profitability of the manufacturers. The manufacturers won’t disappear right away, they will still be in business for a long time but operating in a climate of declining market share. Eventually, their rigid corporate structures will not be sustainable for 20 or 30 different models and their remaining R&D available will barely be enough to offer at best truly horrific products that could only compete in a communist society and (in a free society) only the die-hard ad-saturated NASCAR fans and Big Box Retailer mind-set will purchase, all lubed with zero down zero percent financing.
The end game will be very interesting to watch. I can see several scenarios.
#1, they will last a very long time because of the Big Box Retailing “buy cheap at all costs” mentality that is now so pervasive in our society, and the paid cheer leading from RT/C&D/JDP. They will survive with very low stock valuations until the negative book value per share gets to be so big there is no hope for resurrection, and they die in a conventional corporate manner with several bankruptcies until the stock becomes as good as toilet paper.
#2, their very low stock valuations will make it possible for hedge funds to buy them out for a song and pour tens of billions into them for a very long time (a decade or more) before they capitulate and dissolve ‘em.
#3, they will get “loans” from the Federal taxpayers that will never be paid back, prompting cycles of ever more “loans” until the car companies are pseudo-owned by the Taxpayers (like SM / FM), resulting in a systemic Taxpayer dependency forever with horrific products being offered for sale at a loss of tens of billions every year.
#4, any combination of bankruptcies/hedge fund ownership/spin-offs until their final scenario as either #1 or #2 or #3.
We are not there yet with these horrific across-the-board products, but they will get there. And I am not picking on Detroit, this is true of ALL makes that make unreliable products. (BMW - MINI are you listening?)
Got 10% down?
I own a 03 Chevy Silverado and the transmission has cluncked since the day I bought it.
I have a 2001 Ford F-150 - the transmission imploded at less than 50k miles, and I have replaced the rear suspension and sunroof twice each.
I love the truck - big, comfy, and sturdy, but after repeated catastrophic, very costly and unexplained failures, the likes of which I have never experienced with various Japanese makes I have owned, I will not buy another Ford.
My 2005 GMC has the same clunk while shifting. I was assured it was ‘normal’. They extended my warranty free of charge after my complaining. I do believe that Toyota builds a better product.
I once had a co worker at Hughes Aircraft who used to sell used cars. He told me the best time to buy an auto is at the end of the month just before closing time. The sales guys and the manager will be trying to ‘Hit the Numbers’ and will be tired and willing to make some of there best deals.
We own 3 vehicles.
1. 1986 Toyota truck. I think I can 10 more years.
2. 2000 MB. Nice car but it’s had 2 recalls. One was major.
3. 2005 Sable bought from the dealer in 2006 off the lot. Actually a very nice car in a lot of ways.
BTW my Father, a WWII vet never will or has bought a “Nip” vehicle.
Interestingly the MB dealer sent me an email inviting me to a private sale of used cars. Some were 15k less than bluebook.
My own personal measure of the economy is how many cars do you see with minor dinks and crumples? The worse the economy gets the more you see and I have been seeing a lot mre in the last 4 months.
I have also noticed more people walking lately which is unusual.
I wonder if hospitals are seeing more people who are having “heart attacks” that are really anxiety attacks? My wife works in a large building and they already have had 2 in a week.
How about the # of cars/trucks being driven around with a “For Sale” sign on them or parked in a driveway along with the year, # of miles, contact phone # and price? I have been seeing more and more of those in the Chandler/Tempe/Mesa area here in AZ.
There are whole streets in Silicon Valley where people park their cars with “for sale” signs on them…kind of like an ad hoc, cut-out-the-middleman used-car lot.
Toyotas in the mid late 80s were the best - 300k not unusual - rust kills them. I still see them on the road. Lately, Toyota’s quality has been slipping. Growing way too fast and I do not think they are quite as good. Rest assured, they will address their problems, however…
If I bought a Silverado or similar, I would not want an automatic.
People - drive manual! Better control, less expensive to own! More fun to drive!
“People - drive manual! Better control, less expensive to own! More fun to drive!”
I’ve driven manuals for years but my 2000 Civic (155K and counting) may be my last. When I lived in the midwest I preferred a manual for its much better control on ice and snow, but here in the PHX area in freeway traffic it’s kind of a drag. And I notice the new Civics have a higher MPG rating for the automatic than for the five speed.
I don’t like automatic transmissions. The car has the responsiveness of a motor boat.
On another note, my bought a house in Beaumont, California (yeah I know, sad) got a big time city job and has to move. Bad news is there are 2 short sales and a foreclosure on his block and going by his realtors estimate he’s going to lose 30 to 40 THOUSAND dollars. For his sake I hope this doesn’t happen but he better sell fast because it isn’t getting any better.
I don’t know why so many people badmouth unions. When a large group of workers band together to form a union, As a group they wield more power when it comes to negotiating their compensation and wages. In todays world, a union is the only way to combat global wage arbitrage.
Those union car designers have got to go. I haven’t see a decent car designed in Detroit in years.
unions put a cap on your pay.. aside from that, equal pay for unequal performance is not fair, imo.
I agree. A union is unfair to the most productive member of the union and all the rest of the members mooch off of him. Remember John Galt in “Atlas Shrugged?” That company he worked for went union and socialist in a big way. He was the most valuable employee. He got up from a rally and walked out of the company. That’s all it took - for the most productive member to go on a strike - thus Atlas shrugged.
We have good teachers and we have teachers who do as little work as possible, but they all get paid the same. The union is protecting the lazy non-workers and holding back the go-getters when it comes to pay.
Mike, I don’t have a problem with unions… but the auto unions went to extremes and crippled their industry. Granted there were also management and especially R&D laziness (sense of entitlement?) that doomed the industry. But it’s to the point that between airlines and autos, American companies have found a successful strategy in:
1) Make union deal from bizzaro world
2) Don’t fund pensions.
3) Declare Bankruptcy.
4) Dump pension obligation an PBGC
5) Miraculously emerge from bankrputcy with success!
There’s a problem somewhere in this equation.
Unions suck. I was a non-union until they forced my position into a union job. I found out that the top union pay for my job was over 12% lower than what I was already getting paid. On top of that, I don’t get a bonus anymore(10% of annual pay). Then my education benefits got cut from $5000 to $3500 per year. I lost 5 vacation days. I have to log in and out every time I leave my desk. I cannot be promoted unless the company expands my group, which is a 0% possibility. I can’t even look for another job within the company unless I have my manager’s permission. On top of that, the union wants a cut of my pay for doing nothing. Other than that, there’s nothing wrong with unions.
Needless to say, I am working on my graduate degree and will be leaving the company in a year.
Ha, ha, ha, ha! The news on Crisp’s failed endeavor just made my Independence Day! No surprise to anyone who regularly follows this blog. The next prediction for David Crisp? My money is on jail. Truly a poster boy for all that went wrong during this insane bubble. As an aside, I still think the University is dreaming when they say they still want to do the mixed-use project. It’s Bakersfield, for crying out loud. No offense to Crispy & Cole.
dont knock B-field, its one of the nicest towns, I mean truck stops in Cali.
Exactly. Two steps up from a Trona, for instance.
Don’t knock Bakersfield ! They just went uptown with another ‘ gentleman’s strip club’ to rival the famous Dejavu on Golden State near the Elks Club. hehehehehehe
LOL.
I have received numerous hits today from the CSU system on my blog. I wonder what they think??
The CVBT makes it sound like the university is no longer considering condos. Is that true?
From the press release is sounds like they want to bag the condo idea:
“CSUB was given conceptual approval by the CSU Board of Trustees in January 2007 ‘for the development of residential, hotel, restaurant, parking and retail space on the California State University, Bakersfield campus.’ Since that approval was not tied to having Crisp and Cole Real Estate as the development partner, the University can move forward with a project with all or some of those components without having to go back to the Trustees for conceptual approval.
“The component of the proposed project that would have been most directly beneficial to our academic mission from a program standpoint was the hotel and conference center. The condominiums had less direct program impact, but would have provided substantial long-term annual ground lease income. Within the coming months the University will issue a new RFP [request for proposal] for a public private partnership that would consist of a hotel and conference center.
Interesting discussion on the blog Crispy. When the family shows up to defend themselves, you know things are heating up.
LOL.
Yeah too funny. He is using the Sgt Schultz defense for his father. There is no way he (his father) didnt know what was going on.
Sales in the San Fernando Valley were at the lowest level for any April or May since the boards record begin (1984). No mention of this in the press, of course.
Sales by month
Deb, the SRAR also delayed reporting their April numbers because they were soooo bad. It is interesting to see the real price drops in the previous bust 91-96. The valley is a soft spot for LA. It used to be a good place to be middle class, but prices have gotten out of the reach of the middle class. Should be interesting to see history repeat itself.
Deb, sheessh, I don’t think I’ve seen you post since 2004.
It’s nice to be remembered!
Good to see you back Deb. Where have you been?
Oh, I’ve been around. To be honest, all the snippy comments here got to be a bit much. I’m more interested in people bringing hard facts. I guess the popularity of this blog really says something though.
Deb shows up over at CR from time to time with her usual good stuff.
Deb,
Link doesn’t work. BTW, glad you’re still posting occasionally.
IMHO, when LA gets hit, the game is OVER. Everything else is just an appetizer. Glad to hear the news!
Yikes, try this.
That would be bad, alarmingly bad! The OC reported similar sales for May. Interesting that sales levels are way below 90 - 93 as HelloKitty pointed out. How low can these sales go??
this is excellent data. it also shows how bloated sales really got over ‘normal’. I would love to play around with some trend lines and such. Is this data posted in Excel anywhere?
http://www.srar.com/Revised_SFV_statistics_page/Single_Family_Sales_Annual_%20&_by_Month_1984_2002.pdf
link had junk at the end after the .pdf - just remove in addr box.
What is SHOCKING is that the last 3 months are lower sales than 90-93!
It truly is a nuclear winter now for sales. We get december/jan sales numbers year round! I dont think it will end soon.
The silence is deafening on this. There’s been some tough times for real estate since 1984, but never lower sales totals for an April or a May. Not a word in the LA Times or the Daily News that I ever saw. June and July will be interesting, because after that it’s all downhill until next spring. We could see some really scary “months of inventory” come winter.
Thanks for figuring out my butchered link!
Thats exactly what I was thinking, where is LA Times. In fact I think I will e-mail them this info. I have e-mailed them several times before out of total frustration with some of their reporting. I mean if we are going to have a crash this is pretty much what the sales numbers would look like, wouldn’t they??
Sales are half of peak… That graph is… amazing/scary.
And yet they party on. Midnight was hours ago… but the mice and pumpkins are too drunk to stop dancing.
When the band realizes they are not being paid for their overtime and they walk… game over.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Great chart!
Seems like the total sales for 2007 will be lower than 1992, which was the in the throes of the last bust!
Yep, southern CA sales decline will kick start the slow arduous decline in RE values. IMO, better areas such as SM, pasadena, MB, HB, RPV will hold values much longer up to end 2008. Unless the entertainment or internet (yahoo, google, fox etc.) industry slows down dramatically…
Yeah, the “spring season” was DOA. If the relative difference between spring and winter holds up, there won’t be any sales this winter at all. Zip. Nada. Squat. Null. Zed. Goose Egg.
Deb,
Thanks for the useful chart/graph. But chart says y-o-y 2008 sales higher than 2007? Or am I interpreting the graph wrong?
oh man, need a new script on my glasses - that line says 2006, not 2008. My company just finished FY08 planning, and I am thinking we are already in 2008, howver, the fact that we are only in July (in my ficticious yr 2008) and that line goes through to Dec REALLY makes we worry about myself. How embarrassing.
Anyway - thanks for the great info, is there a way to get similar for other areas outside SFV?
Interesting data. It almost looks like sales peaked in 2002/2003. What’s the inventory #s, how many months to clear?
“A glut of vacant, unsold homes with swimming pools is contributing to a glut of mosquitoes in the West. They become these little backyard swamps,’ says John Townsend, who runs the mosquito-control office in Arizona’s Maricopa County. ‘Mosquitoes move in and breed up a storm.’”
Glengarry West Nile Glen Estates
“HOUSE, n. A hollow edifice erected for the habitation of man, rat, mouse, beetle, cockroach, fly, mosquito, flea, bacillus and microbe.
Ambrose Bierce
The belief is growing on me that the disease is communicated by the bite of the mosquito… She always injects a small quantity of fluid with her bite - what if the parasites get into the system in this manner.
Ronald Ross
I see myself as a roving mosquito, choosing it’s target.
Kenneth Williams
“We have shown that three different Anopheles mosquitoes (a species that carries malaria) prefer to bite different parts of a naked motionless volunteer and that this behavior is influenced by odors from those body regions.”
Bart Knols 1997
Anopheles freeborni is the most important malaria vector in California. But there are going to be a whole new series of parasites when this runs its course. The In-law parasite, the Ex-inlaw, the children’s former girlfriends and boyfriends, the neighbor etc. Happy 4th all.
“Ken Ketner”..blah, blah, blah..
It amazes me how these types always seemingly get away with continuing on their fraudulent, scheming, conning ways. Does it ever catch up to them? Do they ever do jail time?
I’m a very straight shooter, always have been, but I’ve got to be honest, sometimes I think that maybe crime does pay. Sometimes, it almost seems like it’s worth the risk. Too bad it means screwing honest folks. I wouldn’t try to justify by saying, “if I don’t screw ‘em, someone else will”, but boy, that easy money looks tempting.
It just really gets to me sometimes.
We ought to have the white collar criminals be mixed into the general population in the regular prisons.
“It amazes me how these types always seemingly get away with continuing on their fraudulent, scheming, conning ways. Does it ever catch up to them? Do they ever do jail time?”
It doesn’t seem that many white-collar criminals serve time. I think it’s due in large part to the fact that they usually have a wide circle of influential friends who are willing to keep supporting them, even to the extent of providing them jobs and writing letters to the judge about their friend’s good character (he just made a mistake, you know).
My sister worked for two lawyers who ended up disbarred for theft from vulnerable clients (they were the legal guardians of some incapacitated elderly who had no families of their own). One guy switched careers, the other one kept working in the field of law. Both of them got their new jobs courtesy of friends who continued to support them. As did their family and church. Did I mention both of these guys belonged to the Gideon Society? They’re the group that places the bibles in the hotel rooms. That didn’t stop these guys from stealing from the helpless and living it up on the stolen money.
It’s a crime when someone you don’t know or like is caught stealing.
It’s a mistake when someone you do know or like is caught stealing. Or just a terrible misunderstanding. Certainly not worth being punished for.
“It doesn’t seem that many white-collar criminals serve time.”
Just being convicted ruins their reputation. That’s punishment enough, for the white collar boys. Send them home to their distressed families. That’s the new paradigm for people with friends according to the admin. And if violating national security while we’re at war won’t buy you a ticket to the big house, why should stealing from old ladies count? Just use a briefcase, not a gun, that’s all we ask.
Serioulsy, as some have pointed out here before, some punks steal a $3,000 car, have some pot on them and they might do a couple of years in jail. In the meantime, white collar criminals can steal hundreds of millions/billions, and scoot away to some tropical island to live out their days.
I am 100% anti-crime. Hate it & all those who commit crimes against other people; but something’s not right with how we “value” different types of crimes/criminals.
I with you, CA renter. The rich and powerful get pay-as-you go justice and use their “friends” and influence to game the system. It goes all the way to the top - look at Bush’s pardon of Scotter Libby. Makes you wonder what Scotter had on Bush and Cheney.
The meek shall inherit the Earth the saying goes and when it becomes true “game time” these people will be nothing more than fodder to fill gutters.
Just being convicted ruins their reputation. That’s punishment enough, for the white collar boys. Send them home to their distressed families.
It didn’t hurt Buddy Cianci or Marion Barry.
I wonder, if those bibles are now printed in China ? Hmm.
Make him marry my ex wife
Guys like Ken are either like the Energiser Bunny or like zombies. His mistake is being too greedy. Had he only defrauded $5 million instead of 10 he would be doing fine and probably never prosecuted. I remember guys like him from the old days in OC. In fact I remember Ken. There are so many more…..
San Luis Obispo — According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the median home price in SLO was $504k in the first quarter of 2007 and the median income was $64k, that’s a price to income ratio of 7.8. But at least that is down from the price to income ratio of 8.6 in the second quarter of 2006.
Since 1996, the median home price in SLO has gone up 230% while median income has gone up 48%.
http://www.nahb.org/fileUpload_details.aspx?contentid=34325
Wow, talk about prices outrunning income. Expect at least a 33% price drop.
Regarding SLO real estate - Here is an interesting Letter to the Editor of the Tribune:
Title: Isn’t It Ironic?
“How ironic that on Wednesday, June 27, The Tribune wrote about the huge income disparity in San Luis Obispo, and then on Saturday, June 30, the paper is stuffed with hundreds of real estate ads for homes nobody can afford to buy.
Dan Miller
San Luis Obispo”
http://www.sanluisobispo.com/182/story/82359.html
~Misstrial
Looking for some feedback here from any financial types to see if there’s anything wrong with this quick and dirty analysis: Insurance companies typically use investments to cover underwriting losses and vice-versa. This is the mechanism by which most of the public will pay for the sub-prime/CDO fiasco. The geniuses at State Farm, Nationwide, etc. will “discover” that they have huge losses in their MBS portfolios. Ergo, they will have to raise rates substantially on homeowners to make up for the “shortfall” in their investment portfolios.
And CalPERS suddenly finding a lot less money under the mattress to pay for retirements.
Here’s a great (but long…) write-up on it:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tustain/2007/0703.html
“…Not sure what happened at Bear Stearns? The root cause might surprise you. You might also find your own investment funds at risk, after being used as a landfill for the same kind of toxic waste…”
fantastic in speaking plainly and understandably…
too bad they push gold bullion at the end; however, at least the bias is -refreshingly- out in the open.
Didn’t medical malpractice rates take a big jump after the end of the Dotcom boom? Insurance companies had invested heavily there, lost their shirts, and, well, there were those rich doctors. Time to raise their insurance rates.
And workers comp rates as well. I’m just a veterinarian and my insurance rates -( business insurance, workers comp, liability) almost doubled.
Crisp gave The Californian a copy of a letter showing he had received a $1.8 billion line of credit from Neuflithz Wisenthall & Schlumberger, an international investment firm - and just who used what role of toilet paper to create this said letter? Or, is there really a lender left who would be stupid enough to flush $1.8 BILLION down the toilet under the control of this “alleged” criminal Crisp.
We are ze vvery upsets zat anyons kann calls us stupid. Yourself stupid. Thanks your.
Zinzeresly and with general disaffection,
Neuflithz Wisenthall & Schlumberger
http://www.neuflithzwisenthallschlumberger.com/
“Fides, the Fiduciary Services of Credit Swiss Bank (Geneva), originally incorporated Neuflithz Wisenthall & Schlumberger (NWS) in Panama in 1980 . The company was made up of NWS itself, as Financial Trustees, Escrow Agents and Financial Services Corporation.
With the general disaffection that registration in Panama came to represent, and due to the company’s close ties with North American Markets, the company was reincorporated in the U.S.A., in the city of Wilmington, state of Delaware, with subsidiaries in Europe and the Middle East.
N.W.S. has a carefully selected and certified team of lawyers, economists, notaries, accountants, auditors and financial experts working on its behalf.”
Now here’s the interesting part:
“and has been instrumental in negotiating with international credit line owners, lines of credit in excess so far of USD 1.900 million”.
Way to go Crisp. You got $1.8Billion out of $1.9Billion.
Thanks for taking the time to look up that company Crisp claimed to have $ lined up with. What a pathetic website. One really has to wonder how people like Crisp ever succeed, they are so obviously full of BS. Check out the top guy’s resume(?) at NWS. For some reason I have a hard time believing this guy is interested in Bakersfield, let alone guarantee that kind of money.
http://www.neuflithzwisenthallschlumberger.com/ArabMonetaryPage44.html
That website brings me right back to the glory days of the Web - circa 1998 or so - when everyone was using those big ole navigation buttons off to the left. AWFUL! The site either has never been updated or someone’s cousin is still using an archaic website-building program.
One of the nav buttons states, “More Informations.” I really want to have this company invest in my business ventures - maybe they will give me more moneys along with more informations.
LOL! I actually like those “big ole navigation buttons”!
Then again, want a house with carpeting, linoleum, Formica…
He might as well said $1.8 trillion, if your going to lie, lie big.
I wonder how all of the newly minted homeowners in Phoenix, and the Inland Empire will feel about their purchases after enduring a horrendous heat wave this week. Blech.
After being in the IE yesterday I’ll remember them at mass this Sunday.
They are toast.
Now all we need is a power failure……….
Remember Californication and NYC too, has Wayyy too many people working at 4PM and not enough at 4AM
Getting a few million to time shift work, will make it far less likely for any more daytime power failures
Even in the OC. My new neighbor just bought a Craftsman of 2br. 1ba. for $535,000. No A/C. Nice ceiling fans, all windows open. In the 90s this week. $535k and no A/C.
(What) Were you thinkin??
Despite the hype, the heat is not as bad as one may think. Since 70 degrees is comfortable, when it hits 110 you need to change the temperature by 40 degrees inside your house. Contrast this to the East Coast or Midwest when the temps are at 20, 10, or 0 (or less) and they need to heat by 50 - 70 degrees. Sure, AC is less efficient than heat, but not by enough to make a huge difference, and many of the houses in Phoenix have higher SEER systems due to being built in the last few years. My electric bill tops out at about $250 per month in July and August any my house/AC is 22 years old. What does the typical Boston resident spend in the winter to heat 1800 sqft? Of all the things wrong with Phoenix in terms of real estate, the heat it not one of them. People who move here KNOW that it’s going to be hot.
I’ll take a dry 110 over 95 and humid any day of the week.
Wow, if I came in out of 110 to 70 I’d freeze to death. 78 can be cool even coming in sweaty out of 90 degree heat. In hot weather 76-78 is plenty cool enough. (So you have an even stronger case.)
I have been to Las Vegas and it was about 105 that day. Felt as bad as low to mid 90s in south FL. I can’t even imagine 115 degrees, period. That kind of heat kills people. As for heat, its more efficent than a/c and costs less. Also you can stay warm with a jacket or blanket even in near freezing temperatures. Theres a reason why most people prefer temperate climates over tropical.
Gonna have to disagree with you on this one. I lived in Chandler, AZ for two years. That blast furnace is hell on earth. Perhaps some people are built for that weather, but I have Norwegian blood, and I’m not. I’ll take winters of 20 below zero before I’ll ever move back to that hellhole. Rant off.
Dry heat, or wet heat, or otherwise, 116 is DAMN HOT! Then Death Valley, CA (there’s a name for you) is going to be 128 or 129 over the next two days. Try THAT for your Norwegian blood!
Having lived in Montana several years before AZ, I actually found I prefer the heat to the bitter cold. I agree that 76-78 degrees inside is very comfortable and affordable. My highest buill was $380 for the peak of summer on a 5400 sq. ft. home.
However, I can appreciate your sentiment and I hope you share it with all as to how “awful” it is there as to keep the buyers on sidelines and all the california folks from moving there.
I am the circling vulture waiting for the market to crash so I can pick up a McMansion for pennies on the dollar and so I can add toAZ to my name to bring it full circle. This will allow me to write a book on how I paid off my house in 3 years.
Actually, I’ll give the rough draft here: Sold my house in Chandler (85249) in May 2006 before the housing bubble burst and bought the house back in May 2009 after the bubble burst for 1/2 price.
If you’re talking about the efficiencies of air conditioners vs. heat pumps (air conditioners operating in reverse) there is a significant difference per degree (but you’re correct in saying that there is more heating required than cooling in the NE). If you’re talking about an air conditioner vs. a furnace the difference is enormous. And I’m sure that very few households in the NE only have heat pumps.
dont forget, when cooling you have to not only overcome the conduction heat from higher temperature outside, but also all the radiant heat from the sun. A glaring sun creates a lot of extra energy for the AC to pump out.
“People who move here KNOW that it’s going to be hot.”
MUCH easier to deal with the heat than the cold, ice, and snow. I ate lunch outside yesterday in downtown PHX. It was well over 100 out, but with the misters going it was quite comfortable. And my electric bill for June, with an older AC unit, was $135 for a 1600 sf house.
There is nothing wrong with 117… It is dry heat, so just stay inside with the swamp cooler on max!!!
i wouldn’t be able to get in a car= 160 inside?
also, what’s the melting point of plastic? Maybe Roidy or DrChaos knows…
Depends on the plastic. Your cd’s and cassette tapes will melt, but your dashboard will be fine.
Maybe they’re right. Maybe Seattle IS different.
40-50 high in winter, 72-82 high in summer. That’s the middle 50% of days, with fairly sharp tails. Never had a 100 degree day, and the air is crisp and fresh. Of course those east-siders (redmond) bake in the summer and snow in the winter, but they’re closer to the river and slopes…
(That last part was a joke. The Redmond/Bellevue folks own kayaks and snowboards, but they never actually “find the time” or “lose the weight” to hit rivers and slopes.)
Silence, Ajas! Do you want people to move here?!
Remember, it is cloudy and wet alllllllllll the time. It’s just horrible. Everyone should probably stay somewhere way more warm and sunny.
Ill take cloudy and rainy weather if it means never needing a/c nor heat thanks to the maritime west coast weather. Too bad houses there are 3-5x higher than what I can afford
Ill take cloudy and rainy weather if it means never needing a/c nor heat thanks to the maritime west coast weather.
I see. It’s better to pay $5000 per month mortgage and $40 per month utilities than it is to pay $2000 per month mortgage and $160 per month utilities at the height of summer. Right?
We pay $400 a month in the summer and thats for south FL. We get to 90-100 in July, AZ can get well over 100. Who said anything about $5000 mortgage? Smart people are waiting for the bottom then those houses will be 50-70% off in price. If not, theres the northeast which ill take as im sick of the south FL heat.
I wonder how all of the newly minted homeowners in Phoenix, and the Inland Empire will feel about their purchases after enduring a horrendous heat wave this week. Blech.
I love it here. This is supposed to be the hottest day of the week. I’m earning the same amount of $ here than I did in LA but the money goes much further (2 bedroom 2 bath luxury apt at $966 per month and utilities no more than $250 per month in summer). Will break over $200k again this year - in Phoenix. And I’m a renter. Keep gloating.
yesterday I timed how long it took me to get from my car in the parking lot to my air conditioned office building. It was 30 seconds. And the (w)ussies prefer to pay $5000 per month mortgages so that they don’t have to spend a total of 4 minutes per day in horrendous heat? Here mortgages go between $1500 and $2000 per month, typically. Utilities are high 4 months out of the year.
Funny how we laugh at FBs who buy more house than they could afford, but the p , er, (w)ussies have no economic sense when it comes to climate.
“‘Our median home price is skewed by some larger sales. I think that if we looked at the average, we would find that the average home price in the county was flat or even down compared to last year,’ said David Skinner
SO LET’S LOOK AT THE “AVERAGE” PRICE NEXT TIME OKAY DAVE??????
I’m losing my temper very quickly these days.
I’d like to suggest the mode. As in, the most frequently appearing price. And, for fun, let’s do a mean, more commonly called an “average” price.
Forget this mean, median, mode non-sense. Perhaps realtors should start publishing the standard deviation. I submit that an increasing mean with a narrowing standard deviation tells you just about everything you need to know about this market. Skew would also be interesting now that the left tail of the distribution is all-but-gone.
How about some histograms, they can even do them in Excel. It would be nice if they knew how to utilize more than one statistical measure, but I guess that’s a lot to ask for.
“Perhaps realtors should start publishing the standard deviation……”
Okay, I’m peein’ my pants on this one skooch, stop it!!!! This requires that whole ‘math thingy’.
The “Realtor Standard Deviation”:
Showing prospective buyers available properties, and turning the car onto a street they were not remotely interested in, but coincidently happens to have one of your listings.
Median is always used because the high end is the most immume to crashes….wealthy people buy when they want to buy pretty much independent of the forces that buffet us “little people”. That is why the median is MUCH better for keeping RE professionals from having to eat Ramen…..
“See, see, the YOU median WENT UP…..so RE NEVER goes down…which means it is a GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”
The Flat Earth society would be proud….
The median is more resistant to outliers than the mean. It’s statistics 101. If you all are going to bitch about using the median, then don’t turn around and suggest using the mean instead. That is, if you want to be taken seriously.
A better, although still flawed, was of reporting statistics would be to also report Q1 and Q2. But, that method would also suffer if the bottom of the market fell out (but it would be accurately reporting that people are buying more expensive houses).
A better method would use a quality correction, such as sq/ft, or an even better method (albeit with fewer observations), such as repeat sales (e.g. Case-Shiller).
“‘The high end of the market is doing much better, so it’s not really that home prices are rising, but that the mix of what is selling is changing,’ explained Leslie Appleton-Young, vice president and chief economist for CAR. ‘We’re seeing less home-buying activity in the lower end of the market.’”
————————————————————————
Is it me or is Leslie trying to back peddle the message that home prices are still rising via the Median versus an average? …..maybe because Realtors are starving for commissions and she doesn’t want to contribute to the market paralysis? A year ago, she was crowing about the rising medians!
‘You guys have single-handedly had a big part in this. I have no comment for The Californian,’ Cole said Monday afternoon.
That’s just great, the old witchhunt defense! “You guys are just out to get me!”
Yep, they have nothing better to do than try to dig up dirt on the innocent. It wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact that you’re a fraud would it, David?
I hope both Crisp and Cole fry in the pokie. I am sure they are both black in their hearts and crimes committed taking pages. I love hearing FB stories out of CA.
I’m sure I’m in the minority, but I actually sort of welcome the blip up in median for SLO. Don’t get me wrong, I expect at least a 33% to as high as 50% drop in nominal off the peak in SLO, and fervently hope for such, since it is on my watch-list for relo circa 2010. What makes me feel better about the blip is that it maintains volatility in the pricing, making it follow a very classic post-bubble pattern, with all of the cliches that we love to throw around about expired felines and descending dinnerware.
If we start having a monotonous drop, then I think we’re looking too much like Japan for my taste. I try to remember the time scale on the plots like the OFHEO data and the NAHB HOI and NAR HAI. This takes years, and there are usually fits and starts before the bottom. If prices really were going to start going back up, then we would need wheelbarrows full of credit cards to buy a loaf of bread or gallon of milk.
OT, just as suspected, China is moving silently to acquire technology and resource. First, Chrysler was bought out, and now is instructed to work with
China’s Chery auto, to teach China on car making, and to sell China cars
here. Now, Hilton is bought out via BlackStone (China money).
So the Chinese is moving up the food chain with their 1.2 Trillion dollars.
Who is next? Think what the Chinese needs. Technology: Cadence, defense, jet … Food: soy bean, corn, … Shoe: Nike … Retail: Walmart, K-Mart … ???
With Chrysler teaching the Chinese, they are doomed to failure. Besides, only a true moron would buy a cheap POS Chinese car. Their food is poisoned. Their electronics fall apart after a couple of years. Would you feel safe in a cheap tin can car?
a trillion bucks.. hit a lottery ticket for $1,000,000 and it’s not easy deciding what to do with it.
Imagine having to do something with an amount a million times larger. You gotta buy whatever is available.
The Great Walmart! It would be ironic if Walmart became as ubiquitous in China as it is here and the Chinese wound up filling their garages with their own plastic.
*see my replies above*
I had to LOL at a trillion. Even a billion is insane. I could probably live the rest of my life if I won a million, provided I invest wisely and spend only a potion of the capital gains. Two or three million and I can live like a king for life.
Well we got a FORD Taurus 1991 with 92K miles and donated it at 190k. We never did anything with the car, I even rarely changed the oil. This was our car during collage and figured we will dump it at some point. It never gave us trouble, so we kept driving it. Finally dumped it because the power steering started leaking and I had no interest fixing it. My collage room mate has a Honda with over 300k miles, but he spends about 400-500 dollars a year maintaining it compared to may be 200 dollars for my ford over 5-years :-).
We now have a Malibu 2003, with 45k miles, It has yet to give us any trouble (keeping my fingers crossed, touch wood). I have more problems with my wifes Lexus RX 330 2004. When I finally get some time I will take it to the dealer to get the electrical, brakes and transmission checked.
Funny thing is, in a storm or when I really want to be sure that I will not get stuck in the freeway, I prefer to take the Malibu over the Lexus. May be because we bought the Malibu new and the Lexus certified used.
After the Lexus we will most probably go back to American cars, provided we keep having good experiences with them.
Side notes:
One of my friends bought a brand new Honda Civic, and was in and out of the dealer for the first few months. He says he will never buy a Honda again. Another of my buddies bought a used Honda from the dealer and had his engine die in less than two weeks. He got a new Honda engine which died around 112k. He blamed every thing but the Honda quality and recently bought a brand new Honda.
My father in-law only buys American cars (used) since mid nineties. His Lincoln Navigator has close to 200k miles, and his Ford Minivan must have 250k miles.
PS> Hope I don’t start having bad luck with my poor Malibu after this post …