July 5, 2007

A Real Domino Effect

The Herald reports from Indiana. “In 2005, Madison County had 957 houses go through the sheriff’s sales. The number of sales started going up dramatically after 1995, when the county sold 46 houses all year, said Abby Ramsey, court administrator for the sheriff’s department. The rates started doubling in 1998, she said. In 2006, the Madison County Sheriff’s Civil Department sold 1,082 homes through sheriff sales.”

“This is not a problem only in Madison County. It’s happening all over the country. The Web site CNNMoney.com issued a list of the top 500 foreclosure ZIP codes, and on that list Ohio had 49 ZIP codes, Michigan had 34, Illinois had 25 and Indiana had 16. The places in Indiana were all in Indianapolis except for two, one in Fort Wayne and one in South Bend.”

The Daily Press & Argus from Michigan. “The dramatic drop in new housing construction continued during the first half of 2007, according to statistics from the Livingston County Building Department.”

“Just 111 permits were issued in the county through June this year, compared to 290 in the same period last year. ‘That doesn’t surprise me,’ said Kyle Sober, president of the Home Builders Association of Livingston County. ‘(Economists) had said last year that we haven’t hit bottom yet.’”

“Sober said the whole picture may even be worse, since other business sectors are also affected by housing. ‘It affects the banking industry, the insurance industry — I think everything’s affected,’ she said. ‘It’s a real domino effect.’ She said subcontractors have been hit hard, as well.”

“Sober said she thinks the housing sector is due for an upswing, although it may not be as quick in coming as many would like.”

“‘It seems to be picking up a little in real estate (sales of existing homes), and I’m hoping by fall it will pick up even more,’ she said. ‘There are a lot of lookers who want to buy new houses, but they have the problem of selling their existing house.’”

“Does she think Livingston County will ever return to the boom times? ‘Yeah, I do,’ she said. ‘We just have to stay positive and know it’s going to turn around.’”

The Detroit News from Michigan. “Southfield has more than 900 vacant properties, up from 673 in August 2006, according to a report by the Neighborhood Services Committee, which has been studying neighborhoods for 18 months.”

“Like many Metro Detroit communities, Southfield faces an aging housing stock, escalating foreclosures, an increase in rental homes because of the depressed housing market and vacant homes.”

The Wisconsin Radio Network. “In just the first half of this year, over 7,600 Wisconsin homes went into foreclosure. Erick Skrum, with the Wisconsin Bankers Association, says home buyers shouldn’t be scared. They just need to understand what they’re getting into ahead of time.”

“Skrum says many buyers are in trouble now because they over-estimated what they could afford.”

The Plain Dealer from Ohio. “A tide of foreclosures that has brought Cleveland national notoriety continues to surge, with no end in sight. New cases this year in Cuyahoga County could hit a record 17,000, an increase of nearly 25 percent from 2006, according to county Treasurer Jim Rokakis. And 2006 filings had jumped more than 24 percent from 2005.”

“‘Welcome to the epicenter of the mortgage meltdown in America,’ Rokakis said at a recent community development summit hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. ‘As we say here: first and worst.’”

“Cuyahoga County’s housing market has been poisoned by a mix of national and local trends, experts say. The brew includes lax lending standards and lost jobs. The region’s slow growth in property values also has left homeowners without equity for a safety net.”

“Other factors include real estate fraud, unscrupulous lenders and high-interest, or subprime, loans, designed for people with poor credit. Nearly 12 percent of Ohio’s subprime mortgages were in foreclosure in the first quarter of the year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.”

“Nationwide, foreclosures should ease by early next year as credit tightens, Steven O’Connor, a VP with the Mortgage Bankers Association, told a group at the Fed forum.”

“Lenders will make deals to cut their losses, said Jim Sassano, a lawyer with a Beachwood firm that specializes in foreclosure. Sassano said clients are approving repayment plans and ’short sales,’ in which property is sold for less than the amount owed.”

“A report from Case Western Reserve University showed that as of Feb. 28, lenders owned 9,175 residential properties in Cuyahoga County, about 2 percent of the total. They owned 8 percent of the residential properties in East Cleveland and more than 6 percent in parts of Cleveland.”

“Cleveland Housing Judge Raymond Pianka is frustrated when out-of-state lenders fail to send representatives to hearings on code violations. He plans to hold trials in absentia.”

“The empty houses in turn have hurt property values. Tens of thousands of homeowners in Cuyahoga County have sought lower appraisals, and many of them won, by citing the presence of vacant houses in their neighborhoods.”

“Things have gotten so bad that the county treasurer has publicly challenged the widely held belief that having more homeowners leads to a healthier community.”

“‘Not everyone can be a homeowner,’ he told the HUD gathering last week. ‘We should stop putting people in loans they can’t afford.’”




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42 Comments »

Comment by pressboardbox
2007-07-05 12:58:31

‘not everyone can be a homeowner’ - what kind of attitude is that? This guy calls himself an American??

Comment by shadash
2007-07-05 13:17:03

You mean non legal Mexican immigrants working as crop pickers don’t deserve 700k homes? Sounds bogus to me.

 
Comment by CincyDad
2007-07-05 13:26:47

But try they did. According the the 4th Fed Reserve District, HQ = Cleveland, the homeownership rate in metro Cleveland (2.1 million people) stood at 74% as of 1/1/05 (per data released may ‘07).

Comment by arroyogrande
2007-07-05 15:02:13

Are you really a “homeowner” when you owe the bank 100% (or more) or your house’s current market value, and are making interest only or neg-am payments? Should they come up with a “home moan-ership” rate?

Comment by death_spiral
2007-07-05 16:50:03

“Skrum says many buyers are in trouble now because they over-estimated what they could afford.”

Is Skrum and abbreviation for Scrotum? Because me thinks that’s where his brain is located. Get this dumbarse out of here!

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Comment by Bye FL
2007-07-06 07:33:06

Technicially everyone can if they make at least $20k a year. I have seen houses for $20k to $50k in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and the midwest. Not many jobs but who cares, self employment is the way to go!

 
 
Comment by auger-inn
2007-07-05 12:59:12

“Cleveland Housing Judge Raymond Pianka is frustrated when out-of-state lenders fail to send representatives to hearings on code violations. He plans to hold trials in absentia.”

Anyone else here suspect that this little development may light a fire under foreclosure sales? I don’t think banks and lenders will want to pony up money to continually babysit these issues. imo.

Comment by lineup32
2007-07-05 13:36:06

who’s wants to buy these REO’s in area’s were severe blight is allready a problem, pennies on the dollar!

Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-07-05 17:43:44

well.. if the price is right.. and it depends on the particular flavor of ‘blight’

 
 
Comment by Liz from Boston
2007-07-05 22:23:14

In South Euclid, the local government has been knocking down vacant houses, trying to head off arsonists.

 
 
Comment by Groundhogday
2007-07-05 13:16:51

“Nationwide, foreclosures should ease by early next year as credit tightens, Steven O’Connor, a VP with the Mortgage Bankers Association, told a group at the Fed forum.”

Steve, have you heard the one about the barn door and the horse?

Comment by zeropointzero
2007-07-05 13:30:21

Actually, in the short term, I would expect a tightening of credit to lead to more forclosures, thanks to a resulting drop in demand.

Tightening credit is the right thing - but, I think it accelerates the pain in the market. I think there could well be more forclosures next year, if the capacity for greater fools to enter the market and bail out unqualified buyers and flippers is curtailed — not to mention, making it harder for the serial refinancers to postpone the inevitable.

Is my reasoning out of line on this?

Comment by lineup32
2007-07-05 13:40:16

In fact foreclosures may continue at a high rate for many years, its really very simple as home prices decline more and more folks find themselves underwater mortgage wise, not just the recent homebuyers but all the refi’s during the past 5 years have put themselves closer if not over a 100% LTV making them prime citizens for foreclosure, not to mention any significant slowdown in the economy during the coming 5 years.

Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2007-07-05 13:57:26

ARM resets all the way through 2011, thus more foreclosures through the next 4 years. This real estate crash is not going to be over with by 2008, as some bloggers here hoped:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/jul032007.html

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Comment by BanteringBear
2007-07-05 14:54:13

“ARM resets all the way through 2011, thus more foreclosures through the next 4 years.”

Until they stop selling ARM’s, the resets and foreclosures will continue ad infinitum. How do you think a lot of people are purchasing these overpriced POS’s right now? 5/1 ARM anyone?

 
Comment by Lisa
2007-07-05 15:53:28

“Until they stop selling ARM’s, the resets and foreclosures will continue ad infinitum.”

I don’t think it’s just a function of ARM’s. They have to stop lending at 5x, 6x, 7x gross income. That’s what will slow down the foreclosures.

The safety net for a home purchase is 2.5x to 3.0x gross income.

My first home loan was an ARM, but I had also purchased at 2.8x gross income, so it wasn’t a stretch.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-07-05 16:18:22

Lisa, I agree. My point is, as long as the consumption of suicide specials continues, so do the resets and foreclosure.

 
 
 
Comment by Groundhogday
2007-07-05 14:58:27

I agree completely! In a sense, closing the barn door now ensures that the horses already out of the barn can’t come back in.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-07-05 15:32:59

Yeah, he’s basically wrong twice. First of all without tightening credit there are so many resets yet to take place the remainder of this year that 2008 looks nothing short of ghastly. Also, I don’t see many people coming to the rescue of foreclosed properties as it is, in spite of what remain to be lax lending standards.

Second, as you state, credit tightening would take what little relief there was out of the buyers’ side.

Now, if he had said that credit tightening would stem future foreclosures caused by loan originations that are made early next year I might’ve given him some props. But, of course, that’s not what he said.

 
 
Comment by packman
2007-07-05 13:30:31

Yeah exactly. In this case the horse wasn’t stolen but is actually just standing around the corner of the barn. Dumb farmer think it’s stolen and slams the door shut, then watches in disbelief (and dismay) as the spooked horse runs off.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-07-05 17:53:30

“..foreclosures should ease by early next year as credit tightens.”

If by “ease” he means come down off the peak, say in March ‘08, perhaps he’s correct. However the assumption he makes is that unforeseeable foreclosures, like from a totally tanked economy where credit availability is a moot point, do not add to the totals and stretch out the pain time-line.

 
 
Comment by Patricio
2007-07-05 13:28:50

Hmmm….I wonder how long the irony of her last name is going to take effect working in the RE biz?

“Sober said she thinks the housing sector is due for an upswing, although it may not be as quick in coming as many would like.”

“‘It seems to be picking up a little in real estate (sales of existing homes), and I’m hoping by fall it will pick up even more,’ she said. ‘There are a lot of lookers who want to buy new houses, but they have the problem of selling their existing house.’”

“Does she think Livingston County will ever return to the boom times? ‘Yeah, I do,’ she said. ‘We just have to stay positive and know it’s going to turn around.’”

Yeah know, all yuo gotta do is just stay positive….we shall see how that works.

Comment by redmondjp
2007-07-05 16:31:21

Haven’t you read The Secret?

 
 
Comment by Patricio
2007-07-05 13:34:35

Wait, I am going to put a smile on your face….trust me this will work.

Just read this and try not to smile….ohh the sweet sweet irony of this one…karma is a BITCH!

http://www.thenewstribune.com/business/story/101712.html

YES!

Comment by arizonadude
2007-07-05 13:43:54

“Loan officers who work for a Tacoma mortgage company that told state officials in May it was closing say they continue to go without pay”.
With the whole blow up they probably can’t sell these bogus loans to anyone thus are going broke.Not surprised at all but seems like some employees got caught with their pants down again.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-07-05 15:03:49

“Rodney Boyd says he’s owed $28,000 from loans processed in March.

Unlike other All Fund loan brokers, Boyd is licensed where he’s based in Texas, so he got a new job with another mortgage company.”

When you’ve got loan processors making $28k per month, it’s high time for an industry enema. I don’t think some hack who might not even hold a GED should be earning more than many doctors. The rot is undeniably putrid and impossible to ignore.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-07-05 15:05:17

““It’s a great system. It’s just that I think All Fund overextended themselves,” he said.”

Then, umm, I guess it ain’t so great is it?

 
 
Comment by Jim
2007-07-05 13:42:54

New Movie idea: “The Bridge loans of Madison County”

 
Comment by Betamax
2007-07-05 13:55:42

“Skrum says many buyers are in trouble now because they over-estimated what they could afford.”

Thank you, Captain Obvious.

And falling prices are the obvious solution to affordability problems.

Comment by vozworth
2007-07-05 14:44:01

the real problem is Foreclosures, and that problem is clearly solved with rising prices.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-07-05 15:07:37

“Skrum says many buyers are in trouble now because they over-estimated what they could afford.”

Nope, completely wrong. Buyers are in trouble now because their gamble on rapid price appreciation turned out to be a bad bet. They knew what they could afford, they just counted on absurd appreciation (a neverending Ponzi scheme) to bail them out.

Comment by Bye FL
2007-07-06 07:49:28

Sad to say, I know a few people who did just that. They even told me I can afford $200k of house even though I estimate ill make around $40k being self employed.

I will have the last laugh as they end up underwater and their $200k houses drop to below $100k then ill afford one :)

 
 
 
Comment by gsinbe
2007-07-05 13:58:22

“‘Welcome to the epicenter of the mortgage meltdown in America,’ Rokakis said at a recent community development summit hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. ‘As we say here: first and worst.’”

Now, now, a little more humility is in order here! Maybe ONE of the MANY epicenters of mortgage meltdown.

 
Comment by Sobay
2007-07-05 14:41:20

“Cleveland Housing Judge Raymond Pianka is frustrated when out-of-state lenders fail to send representatives to hearings on code violations. He plans to hold trials in absentia.”
“The empty houses in turn have hurt property values.
“Things have gotten so bad that the county treasurer has publicly challenged the widely held belief that having more homeowners leads to a healthier community.”
“‘Not everyone can be a homeowner,’ he told the HUD gathering last week. ‘We should stop putting people in loans they can’t afford.’”

- If Judge Raymond was here in So Cal - he would get horse whipped for saying that.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-07-05 14:52:37

Being from Cleveland, it hurts to see this story.

This illustrates the fact that not only the least affordable (most bubbly) places will get hit. Then again, with no jobs it makes sense that Cleveland would get hit this hard. Most young people I know are doing whatever they can to leave.

Those that can’t are mired in go-nowhere, low-paying service jobs.

Comment by spike66
2007-07-05 15:30:57

“go-nowhere, low-paying service jobs.”

Are you a commie, or what? These service jobs pay far more than similar jobs in India or China and are an essential part of our Information-based economy.
For example..”want fries with that?” is part of an informative exchange between burger flipper and hungry customer.

Comment by ajmstilt
2007-07-05 16:04:09

i thought burger flipping was “manufacturing” now?

Comment by spike66
2007-07-05 17:14:33

My bad. The actual burger flipper is still consigned to the moribund “manufacturing” sector. However, the counter-person, whose skills include using a cash register, is indeed part of the forward-looking Information economy.

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-07-05 19:21:48

Yes, seems like many of those fleeing Cleveland found their way to Chicago. I’ve never seen so many OH, MI, and IN plates around town. But, how many will escape their rust belt frying pans only to land in the Chi-town condo fire?

 
Comment by Liz from Boston
2007-07-05 22:32:39

I have family in Cleveland. I went back last month for a wedding. Stories like this break my heart.

Cleveland is starting to look like Detroit. My grandmother lives in Shaker Heights, which has always been a nice suburb. The house next to her has been empty for at least 2 years. My aunt lives in a nice part of Cleveland Heights. At least 4 houses on her (short) street were vacant.

 
 
Comment by Mr Vincent
2007-07-05 15:20:23

Judge Raymond Pianka: “We should stop putting people in loans they can’t afford.”

Aren’t YOU the smart one! Where were you 5 years ago? Flipping condos?

 
Comment by Bye FL
2007-07-06 07:53:18

This domino effect will work in the favor for us FB who are patiently waiting to buy at or near the bottom sometime in 2010-2012. There is only 1 house for under $200k in loxahatchee now but I bet there will be dozens for under $200k in a few months. I wouldnt be supprised to see some for as low as near $100k by 2010.

 
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