The Clearest Sign Of A Slowing Market In Washington
The News Tribune reports from Washington. “It’s been years since Pierce County’s housing market has looked this bleak. The median sales price in June barely inched upward compared to June 2006 and a decline from May 2007, according to figures released Thursday by the Northwest MLS. And sales were down from the same time last year, with 24 percent fewer stand-alone houses and condominiums sold. The slowdown comes at the height of the summer selling season.”
“Countywide, the supply of homes for sale has grown to about 6.8 months, pushing the market to one that favors buyers rather than sellers, according to Dick Beeson, a Windermere broker and a MLS director.”
“Beeson attributed Pierce County’s lagging price appreciation, in part, to its abundance of new homes and the discounts builders are using to sell them. The year-to-year supply increased 53 percent with more than 8,400 homes on the market. ‘We’ve just got too many properties for sale for our county to handle right now,’ Beeson said.”
“Listing a property today means educating sellers on the competition and price pressures they face, said Tacoma agent Patti Dains DeYoung. Because the market has changed so much so quickly, Dains DeYoung said she now looks only at the previous two months.”
“‘If you’re in an area with a lot of listings, you’ve got to be one of the very best priced to sell,’ she said. ‘You almost have to price it a little under average in order to get offers on it.’”
The Olympian from Washington. “Sales of Thurston County houses dropped 17 percent in June, which prompted one real estate agent to say the real estate market has cooled down to compensate from its torrid pace of a few years ago.”
“Inventory also climbed to more than 2,300 units, up 37 percent from the same period last year.”
“Because current house sales are measured against the boom in housing that started in 2004 and ended in 2006, house sales are bound to be lower, real estate agent Eric Hjelm of Olympia said.”
“‘We are in a transition,’ he said. ‘Everyone still wants to sell, it just takes people a little bit longer.’”
“Another factor affecting the county’s housing market is the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market, said Randy Luke, Horizon Mortgage branch manager and senior loan officer.”
“‘The so-called no downpayment loans for people with credit issues have totally gone away,’ he said, estimating that money is no longer available to 15 percent to 20 percent of the home-buying market.”
“Luke’s Olympia office now has five loan officers, down from seven, he said. Company-wide Horizon Mortgage has lost 10 percent to 15 percent of its loan officers, Luke said.”
“‘It’s kind of grim,’ Luke said. ‘Every now and then you have to make a correction.’”
The Bellingham Herald. “In Whatcom County…the total number of residential homes sold for the first half of the year was down 5.4 percent compared to a year ago. The average time it takes to sell a home, however, has jumped significantly when compared to the previous year.”
“Sales were significantly slower in Sudden Valley (down 13 percent) and Birch Bay (down 19.8 percent).” “In studying the numbers, Johnson believes it is still a balanced market between sellers and buyers, despite the continued rise in home prices.”
“‘These numbers can be deceiving because the average home in Whatcom County hasn’t increased in price over the past year,’ said Lylene Johnson in Fairhaven, who has been analyzing data from local MLS groups for the past three years. ‘It’s simply that more expensive homes are selling and that raises both the average and median (the midpoint of all sales) prices.’”
“‘People want the best value for their money,’ Johnson said. ‘We’ve noticed a trend where buyers are likely to jump at the right price, but because there is no sense of urgency right now, buyers won’t make a counteroffer when it’s overpriced. They tend to wait and see what happens.’”
“Overall listings of residential homes and condominiums in Whatcom County at the end of June were 2,415, up 12.6 percent compared to the previous year. The inventory for the entire area served by NWMLS, nearly every county in the state, is up 51.5 percent compared to 2006.”
The Seattle PI. “Condominium sales buoyed Seattle’s housing statistics in June while showing perhaps the clearest sign of a slowing market. Pending sales, which can be a better indicator of the most recent activity, declined 0.9 percent for all Seattle homes and by larger amounts elsewhere.”
“June’s median for condos decreased from the previous month for the fourth month in a row, adding up to a 5.5 percent drop since February. ‘Four months in a row, it’s an interesting thing,’ said Matthew Gardner, a Seattle land-use economist. ‘Is this kind of indicating a slowdown in the marketplace? Yeah.’”
“Gardner also noted that most new condos are not in the listing service’s numbers and said month-to-month variations do not mean as much as the yearly price changes, which he does not expect to go negative.’That is a rational market. We haven’t seen one of those for quite some time and we’re heading back toward it.’”
“Condos also had an outsized contribution to the other significant news in June’s housing numbers, the continued ballooning of inventory. Seattle’s inventory shot up 59.2 percent in June from a year earlier, noticeably more than the still-significant increases in King County and Western Washington.”
“In a news release accompanying the numbers, the listing service noted that inventory was at an all-time high.”
“Last Sunday, some potential buyers looking at homes noticed the changes. ‘It seems like the market has not gone down, but flattened,’ said Jason Shay, of Seattle, who has looked at homes on and off for three years. ‘Before there were a lot of homes that just were on the market for like two days. Now it seems like they’re sitting a little bit longer.’”
“Agent Mark Petrak hosted an open house Sunday at a Capitol Hill home he’s been trying to sell since September 2006. ‘People are definitely pickier than they were a year ago,’ he said.”
“Agent Steve Jones said activity really slowed after interest rates rose in recent weeks. ‘There’s a ton of homes for sale and not that many buyers right now,’ Jones said.”
“The market has changed, Mike Larson, a listing-service director and designated broker in Lakewood, said in the release. ‘Sellers still don’t quite understand that buyers have much more to choose from,- and often a back-up property to act on,’ he said.”
The Seattle Times. “‘Twenty-four months ago, you could put the sign up, put out a price and you’d still get offers even if you were a little bit robust on your price,’ said Steve Knoblaugh, an agent for RE/MAX Eastside brokers. ‘What we’re seeing now is homes are selling, but pricing is of greater importance. That’s really key.’”
“Knoblaugh said some homeowners he has talked to have decided to sell this year rather than next because they think the market is going to weaken more, making it harder to get their price later on.”
“Marketing consultant Denise Lones said buyers and sellers often make decisions based on what they read in the media. Negative news stories about local events, national disasters or real-estate downturns elsewhere can all spook buyers, she said. And that can make sales decline.”
“But the fundamentals behind Seattle’s market…mean ‘our area is going to thrive and grow,’ Lones predicted. ‘If it’s going to be any kind of a slowdown, I think it’s going to be false slow,’ she said. ‘We’re in a very desirable place to live.’”
“Loan officers who work for a Tacoma mortgage company that told state officials in May it was closing say they continue to go without pay.”
“Loan officers waiting on months-delayed checks say they can’t pay their bills and are facing ruined credit and foreclosure. California couple Lindy Pine and Devin Rusk, who’ve sold All Fund loans for more than three years, filed a $27,000 wage claim in June.”
“Pine and Rusk used their credit cards to make recent mortgage payments and have incurred late fees on cards they couldn’t pay on time. ‘I was really hoping they would be honorable and pay us what’s due. I kind of in the back of my mind am still hoping that,’ Pine said.”
“Bill Wood, a broker based in Hawaii, said…said one of the owners told him that he had underestimated the cost of running All Fund. ‘It’s a great system. It’s just that I think All Fund overextended themselves,’ he said.”
‘Last month King County had 12,282 houses and condos on the market, a 53.3 percent increase over a year earlier and about 1,000 more than in May. Snohomish County had 61 percent more inventory than a year earlier, Pierce County had 53.1 percent more, while Kitsap County’s increased by 37.8 percent.’
Same thing in Portland. But the Pacific Northwest, well, we’re different here. I wonder how many people remember 1981 (in Portland) and the ’70s (in Seattle). Glad we bought in 2000 well under what we could afford. Hang on tight…
Mac, when I compare the Seattle/Portland numbers, I’m astounded at the close correlations. Homes for sale, Portland: 18,292 Seattle: 18,727 YOY inventory percentage increase: Portland: 51.5 Seattle 51.3 I’m going to go out on a limb here and wager that the two markets continue to do very simlar things.
any info on Douglas and Chelan counties?
wasn’t WA the RE wonderland ?
this leave some Ngas drilling areas and nothing else
This is going to be an epic recession. And I can’t wait.
Bring it on!
Impossible! This area is special, it’s different!
amazing, isn’t it? I thought san diego was special and all the other markets that are now falling?
I told my friend NOT to buy in SD yet. He probably makes like $70k to $100k a year with his job and small home business and will soon be looking for a house. I need to show him this blog, he will be so thankful to save $$$$$$$$$$ now is NOT the time to buy. He knows how expensive houses are, bet they will be half as expensive by 2010.
This irked me to no end when PHX topped out over a year ago. The news kept talking about how the market was still going up (based on YoY). If I gained 3% 11 months ago, but have been flat since, then my YoY is up… true. Prices are still going up? NOT TRUE. They stopped going up 11 months ago!!!!! If they are reporting slim YoY gains, then prices stopped going up a year AGO!!!!!
Preach it, Darrell!
Wasn’t too long ago that I was listening to the radio news here in Tucson. In one of the stories, I heard our state’s real estate market described this way:
In trouble.
I couldn’t believe my ears. A morsel of truth from the MSM. (Or, in this case, the NPR station in Tucson, KUAZ.)
First of all, I love this blog and read it all the time…it’s shocking to me that allfund is going out of business…they were a huge “Net Branch” operation
‘If it’s going to be any kind of a slowdown, I think it’s going to be false slow,’ she said.
What is a ‘false slow’? Sales figures are down, but are really up?
I think it’s related to the “false drop” theory.
LOL. Denise Lones, aka Wonder Girl Marketing Analyst, sees a “false slow” because…get ready for it…..”we’re in a very desirable place to live”. So there you have it, in a nutshell.
More desirable than say: San Diego, Bend, San Francisco Bay Area, Santa Barbara, Orange County, Boulder, Bozeman, Boston, Miami, Naples, ….. all places where RE has headed south.
The only false bottom is due to Denise’s liposuction.
correction: the only thing false is Denise’s liposuction bottom.
“Knoblaugh said some homeowners he has talked to have decided to sell this year rather than next because they think the market is going to weaken more, making it harder to get their price later on.”
Everybody wants to get out at the top. Unfortunately, the top is gone. Prices are already falling in WA. The median is an illusion. Price per square foot and same sales comparisons are much more telling.
The same thing is happening here in little Pullman, WA. Our inventory has now shot up to 150 homes on the MLS with MANY more FSBO’s (very common in this market) and builder homes. We have more than double last year’s inventory at this time, and we are pretty much done for the year (anything without a offer at this point will probably sit on the shelf until next spring at a minimum).
We’ve had a glut of high end homes since the end of last year, and now we are seeing low end homes dumped on the market at the rate of almost one a day–clearly speculative/flipper/landlords looking for an exit.
Finally, the RE market is starting to crash in my town!
Long time reader; first time poster.
From yesterday’s Seattle Times-not sure how to link to it:
Since being opened by Canadian immigrants in 2003, the store, Kent Distributor, has become a one-stop shop for pot growers, according to federal court documents — offering everything from seedlings to grow lights on credit to an introduction to a real-estate agent who could help growers buy homes with no down payment.
Hi, Amy, welcome to the blog (c’mon, HBBers, let’s give a warm bubble blog welcome to Amy).
Thanks for the post. As the Canadians would say, Beauty! Wow, RE agents marketing grow houses, what will they think of next!
Welcome to Ben’s blog, Amy!!
BayQT~
Thanks, BayQT. I like to welcome new posters, they bring new life and points of view to the blog. Also support. Even though not everyone is in a position to donate and I understand that, a little courtesy goes a long way in making others feel welcome and perhaps willing to support when they can.
Welcome from Portland! Buy a house, no money down, grow enough quickly to pay for a while… But what do you do then? The moisture from grow ops gets into the walls.
Hello, Amy. Always good to have new posters.
If you want to link to an article (I see that BayQT already got this one for ya), just copy the address from your browser and paste it into your comment - or, even better, do like BayQT did and copy the address, then go to tinyurl.com, where you can paste it and create a short link, and then you copy that short link and paste it into your comment. Just beware that sometimes (not always) comments with links may take a little while to post - so if it doesn’t post immediately, don’t do a double or triple post; the first one will show up eventually.
Here ya go, Amy…a link to that story:
http://tinyurl.com/2boydn
BayQT~
I wonder what it is like to work for a mortgage company. Do you get to cheat a lot ? Can you steal a whole darn lot of things ? etc…
HERE is what We should be REALLY WORRIED about:
They cheated, lied stole, falsified documents and yet Just think what they could do to YOUR company. HR is so Clueless they will hire them because they have been “employed”.
They will get a job before me who has never done anything to even think of being arrested.
My SIL is a closer for a mortgage co in Seattle. One day my husband goes to visit and mentions that he would love to go to the Seahawks playoff game. A few min later the owner comes out and hands him 4 club level seats to the game and the use of his RV to tailgate in. The office used to have masseur come in on Fridays for all the workers and plenty of other bs like that. About 6 mo’s ago the company was closed pending a major lawsuit. Apparently the owner was making fraudulent loans to fake clients and pocketing the money. My SIL was the notary on a bunch of them and had to retain a lawyer. She has since been deposed and no word on any outcomes. So yes, you do get to cheat A LOT!
Yikes: What does “deposed” mean in this context ? I only know it in ruler of country terms (kicked out !).
Does this mean she can no longer practice ?
No, it doesn’t mean she’s in trouble yet. It’s like testifying in a courtroom except there is no judge present and no opportunity to have rulings on objections. The judge reviews the testimony and decides what’s admissible before it’s disclosed to the jury.
They are probably not going after her but trying to get her to incriminate her boss.
Ah, reality is finally getting to the Evergreen State. It takes a while sometimes, but we always manage to catch up eventually. We’ve been leading the pack on inventory growth for months, yet this is the first time I’ve seen it reported as an issue in the local press. Apparently “Denial” is no longer a river in Washington either…
Thanks for giving the PNW some HBB love, Ben.
Yes, thanks, from Portland, the Rose City.
“But the fundamentals behind Seattle’s market…mean ‘our area is going to thrive and grow,’ Lones predicted. ‘If it’s going to be any kind of a slowdown, I think it’s going to be false slow,’ she said. ‘We’re in a very desirable place to live.’”
Isn’t the “we’re special” talk revolting? I bet this shill hasn’t a clue of the economic history of WA, which is littered with boom/busts. The Kool Aid in the PNW is extra strength from concentrate. “A Hard Rain’s a Gonna Fall”.
But BB - she’s a “Marketing Consultant”. Check out her bio - she’s been published on the internet as recently as um, 2002. And look, there’s even a broken link to her web site!
Definitely quoteworth. And you’re suggesting she’s not omniscient? ;^)
Total industry shill. Pathetic. I can’t wait until these people go away, never to be heard from again.
“She draws from her professional and personal experiences and believes that the key to business success is all about people, systems, and follow-through”.
Wow, What a breath of fresh air I had no idea what the key to sucsess was! She is right though, she does live in a “special” place.
“If at first you don’t succeed keep on sucking till you do suck-seed”
Or, to quote a Demotivator from Despair.com (very funny, if you haven’t seen them): “If at first you don’t succeed, failure may be your style.”
About time that this starts happening. I work at the large SW company on the East side. All of a sudden, employees are putting up significantly more housing flyers (from their realtor as they look professional) in the breakrooms. The prices are still over the top - but at least it is starting. Also noticing a bunch of places for rent being posted.
I work there, too (RedWest campus).
Bob, let’s hurry and pick up those $900k homes plastered in our kitchen areas.
Hey you Microsofties! I live 0.8 mi N of Redwest campus, in the land of $1M (OK, that was last summer, now $950K) new homes.
Come on, spill the beans, YOU GUYS are the ones buying all of these new homes, right? From what I read in the papers, MS and Boeing’s “strong job growth” is supposed to keep this party going forever.
So is it true, do all MS workers earn healthy 6-figure salaries to be able to afford a $1M McMansion? I’m an engineer with 17 years experience (heavy industry/electronics/wiring), and I certainly can’t. I happened to ‘luck out’ by buying my (teardown) 1970s rambler back in ‘98 when it was semi-affordable. I couldn’t afford it if I had to buy it today, even with all of the (real and theoretical) salary increases that I have gotten since then.
In my neighborhood I’m seeing new, completed houses sitting on the market now waiting for buyers, which just didn’t happen over the past 3-4 years. Some new houses have sold down the street from me, but at less than last year’s prices. Some FB down the street is trying to FSBO their house (new, bought 7/06 for $999,450) for $1.1M, but the identical brand-new house across the cul-de-sac just went for $940K (sold quickly). That tells me that we’ve hit the top and are holding, holding, waiting . . .
Thanks for covering WA, Ben!
At one point a few years ago, the average Seattle area software salary and bonus was around $300,000. You can imagine the high end required to bring the average that high in the good old days.
What?! I’m thinking that must include CEO salaries and others high in the food chain - I’ve never heard even the most senior engineering salary anything above the low 100s…?
Need to hurry up and pick up the $1.2 house on one of the flyers, or price out forever!
“Loan officers who work for a Tacoma mortgage company that told state officials in May it was closing say they continue to go without pay.”
“Loan officers waiting on months-delayed checks say they can’t pay their bills and are facing ruined credit and foreclosure. California couple Lindy Pine and Devin Rusk, who’ve sold All Fund loans for more than three years, filed a $27,000 wage claim in June.”
At the first missed paycheck, cut your losses, get out, move on, and FAST. Once payroll goes in the toilet, that’s the ballgame, I’ve never seen it otherwise.
Step Two: file a lawsuit against a housing bubble blogger. It’s all those guy’s fault. Them and those darn kids…
I’m sure at least a couple of us here on the blog, sometime in their working life, has been through the experience of not getting an expected paycheck. It sux.
On the other hand, in this case, looks like karma might be hard at work. How many FBs do you suppose these guys might have had a hand in creating and how many of those FBs might have had to resort to credit cards to make mortgage payments?
The ticks got greedy and killed the dog. I am not going to weep over their starvation.
I once worked for a place that issued a rubber check to a coworker. Believe me, he was NOT happy about it.
And, since this was in Pittsburgh during the mid-1980s, it wasn’t as if he could just waltz out the door and find another job. Which also didn’t improve his morale.
As for me, I learned a valuable lesson, and that was to make sure that my paycheck had cleared the employer’s bank before I began writing checks against it.
Yep, Been there myself in the mid 80’s. Used to go the the company’s bank and cash it, then go to my bank and deposit it. They strung me out more than once. I only got burned one time and it hurt, so I never forgot it.
“Been there myself in the mid 80’s.”
Yeah, that’s when it happened to me. What was up with the mid-80s?
Remember the mortgage interest rates back then? I know you do. Our very first home, we felt proud to get a 30yr. fixed @ 11.75%. We had neighbors @ 14.75% and of course others had higher rates. I mentioned this last year to a much younger fellow I know, and his reply was, that’s crazy “I would never pay those kind of rates”…. I said never say never my friend.
“Remember the mortgage interest rates back then? I know you do.”
Yes, I remember it well, I bought my first home back then, too. A duplex, FHA, 13%. $50,000.00. The place, if it still exists, probably costs around $250,000 to $300,000 today. I’d look it up, but I can’t even recall the address anymore.
I remember in 1979 Getting a New Car loan for 21.5% . Ouch! I’m just glad cars weren’t 40k then.
LOL I seriously will never pay those rates. I do hope interest rates go to 10%, 12% even 15% plus because this means houses will get very cheap and my downpayment ill be able to save will be enough to own the house free and clear outright with cash!
During the mid-1980s,a good chunk of the United States was mired in recession. Pittsburgh was one such place. There were many other cities in the same boat.
I was so oblivious to the recession at the time. I just chalked it up to the “Florida Business Mentality”.
Portland real estate dropped 20% in just one year (1981).
Ouch!
Hmm… what do we think?
Sacramento 2007?
Sacramento 2008?
Or Sacramento 2009?
One of those scenarios just might match Portland 1981.
I’d prefer 2010, but that’s because I’m still saving for the downpayment. Oh well, if Nehemiah is still around, that might help.
About Missed Paychecks.
I worked for a Builder at the end of the last RE boom in Florida. My very first paycheck Bounced. He assured Me it was just a Mix-up and his Accountant had Mixed up Bank accounts. He got My money to Me 3 days later. He didn’t want to lose Me so I told Him I would continue to Work for Him but only if I was Paid in Cash on each Payday. He Agreed and Each Payday I got a Envelope with Cash for My gross / Minus Taxes.
Fast Forward 11 Mo Later. Went to work on a out of Town Commercial Job for 6 Weeks ( unpaid)as the Residential Market Stopped on a Dime. We were supposed to Get Paid at the end of the Job , when We returned Home and Time to Get Paid , My boss was Broke, Supposedly He didn’t get Paid by His Boss either.
Then a Couple of Months later when I wanted to File My Income Taxes, No W-2. Another Accounting Error, Right! In June I finally called the IRS and told them I wanted to file My Taxes but I couldn’t get My employer to give Me my w-2′ s.
Then comes the Good Part. IRS said My Employer has Never Paid in any Taxes on Me or Anyone in the Last 2 Years. What did I get to Do? Pay Taxes again on a Years Wages that My Boss Never Paid in Again and Try and Sue Him for the Money. Really Nice after working almost 2 months for Free.
I ran into the Same thing Working for an Insurance Company as an Independent Contractor. They ” Held Back” 35% of my Money For Taxes Because they Said I made to Much Money and they had Problems with Agents , Not paying their Taxes. Guess what Happened to my 35%? Well it Never Made it to the IRS from Them.
Moral to the Story. The first time a Check Bounces or You have to wait on Your Money, No Matter HOW BIG THE COMPANY. RUN Fast and Start getting Paid somewhere else.
PS My Dad was in the Teamsters Union 33 Years, Got Screwed out of last $9,000 pay and 40% of his Pension when they Shut Down with 30 Minutes Notice. In todays World of Financial Stupidity, No One is Immune.
C
marionsucks, wow, what an agonizing tale. First of all, you should make a formal report on ANY employer who doesn’t submit payroll tax to the IRS. I used to know a lady in South Florida who had a garment manufacturing company and stiffed the IRS on payroll taxes. Man, they sunk their teeth in her posterior and wouldn’t let go. Apparently, in the eyes of the IRS, not submitting payroll taxes is the most unforgivable sin.
Yeah , Palmetto, I thought the Same thing, but the IRS made Me feel like I was going to Jail if I didn’t pay Fast. I guess they figured I was the easiest one to get to since I called them first.
I had just assumed before that , that I had paid my Taxes in Good Faith through an Employer Registered through the State and IRS and they should have to go after Him.
Another lesson Learned , the Government will always get theirs from someone. Never Assume Anything.
The problem is you were paid in cash, so you had no proof. Had you received a paycheck, with the deductions clearly shown, you would not have had a problem with the IRS. The IRS had no idea you had made any money and, unfortunately, you outed yourself.
Actually, I think the IRS would almost always go after both - the fact that the employer showed tax withholding not actually paid to the IRS would not spare you. The IRS doesn’t care that your employer lied to or stole from you, or about anything else - they will take everything from you and put you in the street in the blink of an eye, without hesitation. Do not think for a second that being the victim of someone else will earn you a whit of sympathy, let alone forbearance…
Supposedly, that is the main reason that the immigration ‘grand comprimise’ bill failed last month. An amendment was added that would tie in the Real ID act with the Social Security database. So basically, every employer would have to verify all of his employees with the department of homeland security would would also get a dump from Social Security every quarter. If you have employees and there are no payemts to Social Security - oopsey I guess you get a visit from the IRS.
Dont you just get tired of seeing the same tired excuse(s) coming from realtors? One of my favorites: ” people see negative news on the media and won’t buy ….whaaa whaaa whaaaaa ” !
If the media has such all-powerful control over our lives, then realtors better admit the same effect for the past 5 years of runaway price INCREASES.
But nahhh, you’ll never hear them admit ” the media made people submit overpriced bids to artificially increase sales … and my commission check was too large … whaaa whaaa whaaaa ”
I hate hypocrites.
just a couple rambles for you…
don’t you just love dietech’s new commercial with the banjo in the background while the huckster tells us “people are smart, they don’t want smoke and mirrors…..” right.. people are smart. when they walk thru your doors they’re smart alright..
or how ’bout this one..
“please borrow responsibly… don’t borrow what you can’t easily pay back”.. they’re talking about loans against your paycheck for a few hundred dollars or less fer christ’s sake! now here’s my public service announcement: “neither a borrower nor lender be”..
oh, here’s a quote i’m not hearing much anymore..
“well!! i’m not going to give it away!” hrumph!
just letting off a living steam.. back to your regular programming..
you probably guessed that i meant ‘little’ instead of ‘living’… although it did seem like ‘living steam’ too..
I like that, tj. Or, how about a “living stream”, as in “live streaming”.
haha! yes, that would work very well! one could be a poet if one gets ’steamed’ or ’streamed’ enough!
Well, time to refill the sea-ment pond w/water to blunt some of this heat.
Got a coat of primer on it so far & was waiting to apply a final coat but hell with that, no rush or need to finish. Leslies Pools has pretty good epoxy white primer that looks just like paint. The tile work can wait for the heat wave to pass too.
I’m too much of a water enthusiast to let a pool sit empty very long. However, It IS tempting to borrow a neighbor kids skateboard & carve some lines.
Then again @ age 44 it might be a little awkward in the E.R. !!
random musings on a hot summer day
Tj
it’s certainly hot enough to emit some ” living steam ” , boy howdy !
I like when they have the news stories where someone cracks an egg on a car and it starts to cook. Yucky!
“Twenty four months ago you could put up a sign and….” (Seattle Re/Max broker)
Well , at least somebody around here has finally had the nerve to report it in the press. 24 months = 2 years = a GD long time ago. And he’s right, this market’s been shaking apart for at least a year and a half. But you never would have known it if you relied on the press. You had to do your own homework/due diligence to find that out.
That was still true in Tucson, but cracks were already starting to form in the facade. During summer ‘05, inventory started to increase. And those “for sale” signs stayed up for much longer periods of time.
Oh, what lovely, beautiful articles! I weep with rapture.
I went to a meeting last week in Seattle, on loan as a representative of one of the stakeholders in a group planning a large conservation project in the North Cascades region. The subject of subprime affect, credit constriction, etc. on future market and inventory factors came up.
I studied the builders representatives on the other side of the table—I don’t sit anywhere near them, of course, because that turned out to be a bad idea last time, when the ‘consensus building’ attempt got noisy and degenerated rapidly—all those Morlocks clustered together in their power suits—my power suit was cuter and has way prettier and higher quality stuff inside it, by the way–and I tried not to grin like the bloody Cheshire cat–gotta look professional, and concerned, and as if ‘We’re all just working together here to plan the future of our community’, instead of acknowledging the truth, which is: ‘I am looking at a bunch of greedy lying whores who would do or say anything, who would ruin the land, poison the Puget Sound, and damn our future, all in the service of their God, which is Greed’.
It was difficult, but difficult in one of those fun ways. Because market trends are dowwwwn, even here in the NW. Guess we weren’t immune to reality after all! Going dowwwwwwn…
My calmly worded question in summary was, who’s going to be needing all these new houses the builders want to build, if buyers can’t get financing? If sellers can’t sell?
Who. Will. You. Sell. Your. Shite. To. ? . Is what I ask…and your projections? Can I see some projections? Got exciting data sets? Got pretty charts on Power Point? Because I just loooooove pretty charts with pictures.
What? What’s that you say? Can’t hear you. Speak up!
Ahhhh. What a fabulous meeting.
Well, back to the beer and left-over fireworks.
And yes, I’m feeling quite merry and lighthearted on this lovely summer afternoon.
OlympiaGal
Outstanding, OlympiaGal. I’m dang proud of you. Wish we had more like you in Florida.
Olympiagal - I want to have your babies. It was love at first Byte especially your useage of the word “shite”. (It rhymes so therefore, I am a poet. But I didn’t know it).
HS.
Well, okay.
And I want to see Houstonstan giving birth to your babies!
Anyone here watching the Spokane market? Still seems like houses are selling—Spokesman-Review says it is because our job market here is strong. Ha Ha HAHAHAHAHAHA
Really? I seem to recall some Spokanite friends of ours having problems selling their house in 2005. Nice house, too, corner lot.
Can Spokane really bust if it never boomed?
My high school friends have all the taxi driving jobs. You immigrants from the coast stay away!
First time post. I have a friend in Seattle who is also a real estate agent. Was talking to him recently and found out he was thinking of buying a condo, in a remote, semi-resort town about 200+ miles east of Seattle. I tried to explain what’s going on in RE in the rest of the country. His response: “The rest of the nation doesn’t matter.” On further inquiry, it was his version of “we’re different here.” Sad, very sad. I know the area were he is thinking of buying. Big bubble run-up over the past 5 years. At the very least, future high gas prices will put a damper on the desirability of such remote RE.
When all of the dust settles, I think we’ll find that most Realtors actually believed the NAR spin and speculated heavily in real estate themselves. They’ll be losing their collective shirts on the down side–no job and huge spectulative losses.
Let me guest, your friend want to buy a condo in…”Walla Walla”? Haha
Burn Seattle, burn. Next up, Vancouver.
You said it, brother.
“Sales were significantly slower in Sudden Valley (down 13 percent) and Birch Bay (down 19.8 percent).”
Birch Bay is literally walking distance from metro Vancouver BC, which goes right up to the US border. I guess Homeland Security’s electronic monitoring is disrupting the magical 2010 Winter Olympics Forcefield which is supposed to keep RE prices high in the region.
I was born and raised in Vancouver,Wn and believe me I am glad I never went back!! Left there 40 years ago. Talked with my brother who lives in Tacoma today. He origionally purchased his home for $17,000 in 1963. He says it is worth $500,000 according to a RE agent. He owes $235,000 on it and is about to retire. It is going to be ugly on him the rest of his life. Stupid is what Stupid does.
People here in Seattle are incredibly arrogant about their homes….”it won’t happen to us!!”…”people want to live here!”…”we have Microsoft and Boeing!!!”….ad nauseum.
I bring the bubble up and people get outright hostile.
But every sign points to the exact same thing as everywhere else.
1) Flippers - check (lots of speculation/multiple homes/etc)
2) Voodoo loans - check (only way the avg salary of 60K could affort the avg home of 450K)
3) Rocketing inventory - check (65% YOY)
4) Downtown condoitis - check (they are everywhere)
5) Zune/Vista are flops
6) Boeing orders have a history of being cancelled when orders are backed up for many years and the economic climate changes from when the airplanes were initially ordered
But hey, these are just details….it is a great time to buy!!!
Let’s say that Seattle is “special” and RE falls everywhere else except here. Folks don’t seem to realize that Seattle would become the least desireable place to live in the country and both individuals and companies would pack up and leave…only magnifying the inevitable fall.
Gravity applies to all markets….even Seattle.
Greetings from Vancouver, BC
At least you guys are getting an early wake-up call.
Although Vancouver’s bubble is the among the biggest on the continent, most folks up here are either sound asleep or in a state of denial.
Our market will have a lot farther to fall than yours, and the damage is gonna be awesome.
And those of us not in denial can’t wait.