Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Lower prices “In a recent Web chat, a reader from Manassas summed up what is probably the overriding concern of many local homeowners: ‘How much lower is this residential market going to go? I have already lost over $200,000 in value compared to what I paid for my house in Gainesville last year! Even after taking the down payment into consideration, I owe more than what the house is worth! Help!!!’”
“Let’s pause and let that number sink in. Two hundred thousand dollars. Gone. Lea Morris, an agent with Long & Foster’s Gainesville office, says a decline of that magnitude is indeed possible.”
“‘The list prices we have now are much lower than a year ago,’ she said. She’s frustrated that so many buyers are still sitting on the fence despite the negotiating leverage they have. ‘They can go in and offer a lower sales price and get all their closing costs paid,’ Morris said.”
Reporting changes? “One view is that it hurts sellers, another is that it helps buyers. The bottom line is that you, the real estate professional are in the best position to explain to your customer, buyer or seller, what the true DOM figure is and what it means.”
“To that end, the SoCalMLS BOD, after getting input from MLS Committees and other practitioners, have decided to remove the Days on Market and Cumulative Days on Market fields from all Client reports.”
Lending news? “Bad bets revealed by some hedge funds in recent weeks may mean other funds will be forced to accept the market’s deteriorating views on subprime mortgages and report their own losses soon.”
“‘The interesting thing is the varying stages of denial that the street finds itself in,’ said a university endowment manager who asked that he not be named. Some, he said, are ‘very willing to mark prices down and take the lumps.’”
“The ritual at hedge funds of placing a new value on securities held at month end, rather than daily, appears to worsen the blow to investors if prices have fallen over the period, said fund manager Jason Brady.”
“‘When investors redeem, the leverage unwind is awful,’ he said. ‘They redeem when they see their statement. That happens over the next week or so.’”
Two houses in my ‘hood in Bradenton, FL just sold for about 35% off peak prices within the last month. The sellers got out a bit below what they paid new in ‘04. The sellers who purchased recently and are trying to sell are now screwed beyond belief…..
I just got back from a mini vacation in New Smyrna Beach. This is just below Daytona…There was a for sale sign on literally every other home there on the beach….Many many condos for sale as well. The prices are still around Aug of 05 prices…But nothing is selling at these prices…
I talked to an owner of a condo where I rented…She said she got hit up for a 75K assessment fee…She said she had to pay 20k for the next three years and and then 15k the 4th year… Taxes, Insurance/monthly fee and assessment comes out to around 39k
a year…That doesnt include mortgage if they have one…. I paid my $1400 for the week, sat on the furniture wet, spilled beer and
food everywhere and then left…The whole time I was thinking that I was staying in an alligator that is eating someone up.
It is a free country. The government can do whatever it wants. As bad as Prop 13 in CA is, obviously things are seriously broken in FL.
Au contraer GH, thankfully we had Howard Jarvis and Mr. Gann to stop the bureaucrats from stealing more of our hard earned money to squander. Prop 13 enabled seniors and new homeowners to anticipate and control their property tax assessments.
You mean stopped stealing more of senior’s and long-time property owner’s hard earned money. The rest are screwed.
No, the rest are NOT screwed unless they ignore the total PITI payments due to the belief that they will be multi-McMillionaires as real estate always goes up!
Prop 13 should actually serve to provide more affordable housing **IF** prospective buyers would THINK about the price they pay & how that affects their prop tax bill.
Seriously, that’s why we’re renting. We could easily afford to buy a new home just based on the principay & interest…it’s the prop tax that throws us over the edge. So, we wait…
At some point, prices will fall to a level where PITI payments will once again be in line with rents.
principay = principal
At some point, prices will fall to a level where PITI payments will once again be in line with rents.
In other words, Prop 13 will bring on a meltdown where prices will fall back down to the oldtimers’ tax base.
So much for that nest egg. Bwah ha ha. Oh yeah, everyone will be paying the same taxes too, just like before Prop 13. Double bwah ha ha. How is that shortfall going to be dealt with?
The problem with “screw the new buyers” tax policies is that they only work as long as new buyers play along. When they don’t, the playing field gets leveled again.
There is only one way to keep taxes down in the long run - elect governments that spend less money.
Oh yeah - don’t live in Ca and would never want to at any price.
Yogurt, you are correct. My CA house, bought in 1989 for $227k, is totally paid off…but because my taxes are currently so affordable, I don’t dare move, even though I would have made a good profit if I had sold at the height of the bubble. Also, I chose to stay because I like my place…money isn’t everything.
Thats another good reason to leave FL. I have a bad feeling FL will screw its owners on property taxes when property prices go down, they will raise the taxes so they get their money. Long gone are the days of low taxes before the house bubble.
Everyone wants government services but nobody wants to pay the taxes.
I’m willing to pay the taxes on the services that benefit the state as a whole, i.e. building freeways, road repair and all the things of that nature. But in California (and other places I’m sure), they have a very bad habit of creating services that help people who will not help themselves. Certain welfare services and many political pet projects to aid illegals and other poor people who mooch off the system. (Don’t tell me it doesn’t happen, I’ve seen it. I know people who have done it!) No, not everyone is like that, but more often than not, they are. Schools taking on more kids than they can handle because CA won’t “stem the tide”, hospitals closing due to overloaded waiting areas and thousands without insurance that they are forced to care for, DMV’s printing brochures and catering to every language out there - our road signs are in ENGLISH! It’s THOSE services I refuse to pay for. It’s those dumbass projects that waste the taxpayers’ money. And if they took all those services away tomorrow, I certainly wouldn’t cry over it.
Everyone wants government services but nobody wants to pay the taxes.
Total BS red herring.
As a native Californian who lived there for 56 years, I’ve seen the effects of Prop 13 over time, and they aren’t pretty. The biggest beneficiaries of Prop 13 are the large corporate landowners, who helped enact a huge, growing and permanent tax cut for themselves (they rarely sell, so their property assessment can rise no more than 2%/year), while the tax burden shifts to the f**d residential buyers who sell and buy much more frequently due to life changes. Prop 13 also emasculated local government, making local governments dependent on the state for much of their funding. California, which used to have great schools when I was growing up, is now ranked 48th out of 50. There are many market distortions caused by Prop 13, and the unfairness of it is seriously anti-democratic, IMHO.
(BTW, we sold in 2005 and moved out of state.)
Everyone wants government services but nobody wants to pay the taxes.
Total BS red herring.
“Red herring” or succintly stating the obvious? Everyone (even corporations) want to have their cake and eat it to. Homemoaners want new roads, good schools and conveniently located fire, police & hospitals near their McMansion, but don’t want to pay property tax. Companies want government subsidies, tax breaks, and juicy no-bid government welfare contracts, but don’t want to pay taxes on the profits or open their books to scrutiny.
Everyone wants a free lunch. It’s true now, was true in the past and will always be true in the future –just fundamental human nature. Why is this observation controversial?
The math for that place isn’t all that bad, compared to others. Obviously, yours was a weekly-rental, furnished unit. Hardly any condos built in the past 10-15 years allow weekly rentals — the movement for even the old condos has been in the opposite direction. Since yours was weekly, it pulls in much higher rent than condos with minimums of 1-6 months — some get just $1,000-$2,000 a month. If the owner of yours were fortunate enough to rent year-round, that works out to around $70K. Since it is a weekly, the odds are that it is a much older condo and that the great majority of owners did not pay bubble prices. The assessment quite possibly is for the major renovations that an old oceanfront building typically requires — new elevators, balcony replacement or refurbishment, etc. For a “weekly,” the assessment doesn’t sound awful, to me.
The great majority of waterfront condo flippers here in Florida bought either new-vintage condos or conversions of the old low-rise motels that were not instead turned into “condotels.” FWIW.
The associations may not allow them, but here in South Florida the number of weekend “friends” many condo owners have is quite staggering, if you ask me.
I see many, many people walking around here carting weekend bags.
Though that’s assuming the place is rented year-round, which is not normally the case. Assume a 75% rental rate for weeks throughout the year, and you’re probably a bit optimistic. And unless you do VRBO and contract out cleaning services yourself, the management company takes 25-40% off the rental fee up front. Plus there’s the constant replacing of wear and tear items they have to deal with.
My parents own a weekly rental in Destin- good location with view and large private beach. It rents well every year, they only paid about $165K for it in 2002, and they’re still not cashflow positive on it. The people who paid $400K for similar units a couple years later have to be kicking themselves.
“I paid my $1400 for the week…”
$1400 a week? At THIS time of the year?!! That must have been a VERRRRY nice condo.
What do you mean at this time of year…the 4th week is the prime week of the year!!…And 1400 was around the middle of the pack…The unit I stayed in was for sale for 520k.
Economist — that’s about right, then. The condo probably was built between 1975 and 1985.
Well I’m puzzled about late June being high season. On the Gulf coast (Sarasota, etc.) the expensive season is February and March, with December and January just a bit lower. Condo rental charges are lowest during the summer months.
Bill is right about that — beach condos in Florida pull in max rates January-March, feathering out about 2-3 months on either side. Shoulders season is terrible, and summers pull in fairly low rates. HOWEVER, weekly condos might well bring in better rates in the summer — there just aren’t many of those.
. I paid my $1400 for the week, sat on the furniture wet, spilled beer and food everywhere and then left…
…hehehehehe….
That comment actually pissed me off. Respect other people’s sh!t. If you want to get back at a landlord then don’t patronize them. Not cool.
Good points Sleepless,
I guess schadenfreude is getting the best of me…
“I paid my $1400 for the week, sat on the furniture wet, spilled beer and food everywhere and then left…”
You b@$tard, that was my rental unit in New Smyrna Beach! Was it also you who also took a shiite in the fridge and squirted sunscreen all over the walls? I’m gonna subpoena your IP address and have you sued! The PM company took me to the cleaners for that one!
Just kidding, LOL.
Ahh, my kind of tenant. Well, for $1400/week I suppose you can expect to get away with stuff like that. (My only experience with a condo/tel was in Hawaii for $1000/week a couple years ago. $1400 seems steep for FL in the summer.
Hey, when you do business with trash…
I paid my $1400 for the week, sat on the furniture wet, spilled beer and
food everywhere and then left…”
Economists…we can’t take you anywhere.
BEN or ?
it would be cool to have an interactive map showing how far prices are off peak
seems FL and IE, ca are back to 2004 off 30%
Totally bifurcated market. The condos and new crap may well be off that much, even more in the stupidest projects. (We’ve seen examples of 50%). But nice houses in established neighborhoods - even in the bubbliest places - are holding up not too far under peak prices (for now), even in Florida.
Reason: They’re trapped in them. They can’t leave because they’re over-leveraged. Plus, many of them have tax or association liens to boot.
Don’t deceive yourself. Florida is not the land of wealth. It’s the Land of Getting By.
You must live in a completely different Jacksonville, Florida than I do. My wife and I hit open houses just about every weekend. Homes in nice established neighborhoods are listed and selling for much less than they were last year (June 2006 was the JAX price peak). Some of the homes we have been tracking over the last year are listed for $200k less than they were a year ago. Most of the homes are listed at least 25% off peak and can be had for less. Few are selling. We spent last weekend in Avondale and had three realtors BEG US to make offers when they found out we were renting and had cash. Prices are not holding up.
Are you a realtor by chance? It appears that everyone except realtors and The Times Union understand the JAX market these days.
We could use 200K drop on the SFH med. in CA.
I’ll second that though I do enjoy watching sellers reduce every month. That slow trickle is going to kill them.
I decided to take some surface streets home in Sacramento last night, just to see what is happening in the subdivisions that were built from 2002 forward. You can tell many of the foreclosures by the dead lawns and there was probably 1 dead lawn for every 30 houses.
Last September I shared a story about a GF/FB. In July 2006 he walked into a William Lyons subdivision, “just to look”. He already owned a 1700 SF with a HELOC’d pool, but $75,000 in equity, after selling costs. Anyway, Lyons sold him a $500,000 home with nothing down. He was bragging how he got $350 back at closing and they gave him all new stainless steel appliances and a big screen. He was really stoked about what a deal he made. I met him because he was selling his old refrigerator in his old house. He was going to make it a rental, but did not want the tenant calling him if the refrigerator broke! They had a purchase offer for $455,000 on the old house, but the appraisal came in at $420,000 and the wife was not going to leave $35,000 on the table! They decided to rent the old house while it “appreciated some more”.
I drove by it yesterday and the lawn is dead. It is listed as “bank owned” and the price is $399,000. Idiots. He works for Home Depot. They are slow and will probably close some stores in the next two years. He could lose his new home if that happens
Bottom Line: This couple had a “net worth” of $75,000 in 2005. Now he has a foreclosure on his credit report and a negative net worth of $100,000. 11 months go by and this couple threw away $175,000! All for new stainless appliances they were not even looking to buy!
It is not hard to see why this market has turned down. There are just too many suckers. And they have a long way to drop from here.
I like that story Jingle, it is true of so many people. I have seen realtors wondering why buyers aren’t “jumping in” because they have negotiating power now…this cracks me up…the ONLY reason people bought these homes that they could NOT afford a couple of years ago was the EXPECTATION of price increases. Once that is gone from the collective investor psyche, it is all over. I would say we are steadily approaching this mindset…
Wait a minute, I thought all the dumb hicks were in the Old South. (earlier thread)
Yes, Dukes the appreciation expectation is a big part of it. However, I believe the biggest factor in this run up to the bubble values is the easy credit. The couple I profiled above were essentially paid $350 and all new appliances to buy this home and move into it. Nothing down. And I am sure they probably used a neg-am, adjustable, pick-n-pay 80/20, so their new monthly payment was probably less than the perm+HELOC on the old house. Today, the new 2nd has gone from 5.5% to 9.25%, so that payment increased from $458 to $770. Wait until the first resets and that jumps from $2000 to $2460, then gets recast when the neg am limit kicks in and they go to $3,000/mon. With the taxes, bonds, HOA, they could be spending $4750/mon in a couple of years. How much does a Home Depot floor covering manager make? Now, they have no way to refi, with a foreclosure on the old home. These people can’t think past their new big screen TV. And it’s only 4 inches thick.
The bond meltdown will dictate 20% down payments soon. This weeds out all the idiots. And if you want a new house, you must plan, prepare and be responsible.
“The bond meltdown will dictate 20% down payments soon.”
Oh, man, I sure wish that would happen. I have all-cash and a 20-% down requirement would put a huge number of properties into my buying range. Keepin’ my powder dry, while renting the equivalent of a babe who probably wouldn’t have considered dating me, back when.
“And if you want a new house, you must plan, prepare and be responsible.”
Awwww, talk about being a wet blanket! That sentiment just won’t fly in today’s consumption based economy.
This is a lesson learned. Never ever take the incentives always take a price reduction. Most incentives are depreciating assets at best and a price reduction at least lowers the price of your house and the amount of your mortgage, even though sometimes houses are a depreciating asset too.
“Never ever take the incentives always take a price reduction.”
These days, it’s fully upgraded homes with price reductions. I posted last week that Pulte homes is offering homes with 3/4 inch cherry flooring, slab granite (gag), and stainless appliances (upchuck), at $122 per square foot. These are pre-bubble prices. Anybody buying should demand upgrades and price reductions, or just walk to the next to the next builder.
“…walk to the next to the next builder.”
Pardon my Foghorn Leghorn moment.
Bantering — assuming you mean exclusive of the land, $122 doesn’t sound like that great a deal to me, in today’s market and at today’s materials costs. I’m looking for 3/4 inch drywall and flooring, thick real-wood moldings, thick granite or other premium surfaces and Viking-wannabe appliances for $100/sf, max. In the deep South, at least, this is possible.
Chip - $122 per square foot includes the land (small lots), which is quite a good price this early in the game (2001 pricing) considering other builders are asking for more than $400 in certain instances. This is Reno, NV.
Bantering - at $122 including the land, assuming about a 1/4 acre lot, that sounds downright decent for Reno, from what very little I know about Nevada. Heck, I could consider Reno, at that price. Got water?
Funny you say that about water. I was in San Diego last week and met a guy who bought water rights in 1978 suitable for 1200 homes at a cost of $1800. He was offered $25 million for the rights today. He was going to Baja for a couple of months, just to get away from the pressure. It was so much money, it almost seemed like he was blowing a gasket and lost the grip on reality. He seemed like cannon fodder. Be careful what you wish for these days. Like a housing meltdown for example. Every one of us is tied to housing construction market in some way. Everyone. Think about it.
Don’t give a crap.
Hmmmm, $US122 = $A143.
To use imperial measurements, I could just about buy a 3500 sqft McMansion on a 6000 sqft lot for that around here (in Australia).
What I can’t do, which I actually would do (as a single adult), is buy a 1500 sqft 3/2 apartment or townhouse for anywhere near that rate. Properties like that start at about $US300K.
To me there is a big market opportunity going begging here for good (by which I mean well-soundproofed and sturdily constructed, rather than flash appliances) apartments.
Our monthly neighborhood paper (The South Gator) has a real estate breakdown M/M and Y/Y of this neighborhood only. (zip 34239) Average sales price between June 06 and June 07 is -30%, from 315K to 221K
Yet Zillow claims prices down -2%.
Zillow is on the money in my hood 22151
what’s their problem
I have a guess — Key Lime is in Sarasota — low wages and sales dependent on Yankee FBs selling out; Flatffplan is in Northern Virginia, just outside the beltway, where wages are high and rising, if not at “yesterday’s rate.” The fall in Florida, especially in the Sarasota/Bradenton/Fort Meyers area is sooner, faster and sharper. The fall in the Washington area is je ne sais quois — I’d guess that the areas that get super-hammered are the way-far-out ones, like Warrenton, not the close-in ones like Springfield.
Zillow Zestimates are completely bogus. The only thing Zillow is good for is sold comps.
yes - maybe of you look at the bottom of the range they give for houses. In my case, they are within 25k plus or minus.
“‘The list prices we have now are much lower than a year ago,’ she said. She’s frustrated that so many buyers are still sitting on the fence despite the negotiating leverage they have. ‘They can go in and offer a lower sales price and get all their closing costs paid,’ Morris said.”
Your frustrated you stupid realtor?
To F”"” Bad.
When prices get down to affordable levels smart buyers will buy not any sooner.
Yeah, as therapy for her moments of frustration, she can just go count all her money made during the big bubble run-up period. That should help, huh?
I’m willing to bet she spent more than she made, even in the boom years. Nothing left to count.
From having read certain Gainesville Sun articles, I would have to say ,,Das stimmt.”
Remember one a few months back about the realtor with 3 kids who was paying big bucks to do a pergraniteel kitchen in her new house. Future FB.
Frustrated realtors ™ is just pure shadenfreude.
With the bond market hurting… the mortgage market is about to tighten. Monthly payments for 10% down must drop 20%+.
But that requires math, something realtors suck at.
My work estimates our salaries must go up 70% to retain young talent (so that they can buy a home in a decent school district). Since that isn’t happing… 1/170%=58.8%. Or home prices must drop ~40% in real terms before we can stop worrying about retention. 
And I know one of our competitors has many more 30 somethings who don’t yet own… their attrition rate is… interesting.
Ahhh… definitely a schadenfreude moment.
Got popcorn and 7th grade math skills?
Neil
Speaking of shadenfreude, where’s Sammy been?
Neil — your math makes sense to me. By the time it’s all over, people might be more reluctant, than in my day, to “stretch” to get into a house by banking on healthy future salary increases. And in the end, we always have the tried-and-true rent ratios to fall back on. It went around and is comin’ around.
I thought it was a stretch years ago when our mortgage, plus ins. and taxes, was 28% of our salary, and we had no other debts.
I agree 100%
Thanks for the comments…
One more point:
Corrections always overshoot the mark.
Got popcorn?
Neil
One of my concerns is that prices will never get reasonable in any near term ( next 4 years). If that is the case, what will keep the wheels from coming off the wagon? An influx of money from somewhere is my only conclusion. Maybe the foreclosure rates will slow magically.
After all the dust settles from this mania, I will never trust the REIC on anything. This real estate bubble has been a lesson for many to learn from. We are witnessing how easy money deluded people into thinking that the REIC had home buyers’ best interests on a pedestal.
The reality is that if you can’t afford to make the payments, men with guns will come to your abode and tell you to leave. Did the REIC ever think of that scared-straight scenario to tell clients?
What will keep the wheels from coming off?
How about a massive round of layoffs a la 1991?
The reality is that if you can’t afford to make the payments, men with guns will come to your abode and tell you to leave.
Depending on the area, there will also be a big announcement in the paper, so all of you friends will know. Many will never talk to you again.
Closing costs?
This is chump change. just take 50% off of prices in looney markets and then maybe you will get a bid. Not before.
Buyers demand it or no sale!
lol!
Renter — a year (or definitely two years) ago, you’d have been laughed at, possibly even here by a few doubters. Notice that nobody’s laughing now. We’re getting there. Slower than most wanted, but progress nonetheless. Hope you’re right.
Bosshardt in Gainesville is still drinking the kool-aid.
Campus Edge (formerly Pebble Creek Apartments) listed 1BR/1BA 645sqft condo at $120,900.
800sqft apts next door (slightly older, but decently maintained) rent for under $700/mo. Not close to much on campus except the USDA offices–despite this claim that they’re close to Shands. There is closer housing.
They’ve been trying to sell these little ‘gators for more than a year. Good luck with that!
If they came with semi-secure parking spaces, a competent Realtor would be able to sell one of these an hour for weeks in my city in Australia.
My bro and sis rent in Gainesville as its much cheaper. They split the rent with roomates to save even more. I have been there and the prices suck! I bet many college students bought thinking they could resell when they graduate for a profit instead of throwing it away on rent. Now they are stuck.
Yeah, but some of their professors were able to buy Lambo’s and Porsches with their MEW or HELOC money.
Isn’t that worth overpaying on a former apt sh!tbox condo?
noticed new signs nailed to phone poles at major intersections.
Avoid Foreclosure
Call 1-877-xxxx
I’m sure those folks just want to help!
I’m seeing lots of “rent to own” signs.
These have been common around Jacksonville for months. If the stuff is junk I believe the business model is something on the order of offering .5x for something that can be refurbished for .1x-.2x and resold for x within 3 months.
Definitely requires not being embarrassed at making really low offers. (”I don’t want to offend you, but to make this work for us the best we can do is . . .”)
I managed to buy a staled-out fixer-upper for 2/3 asking in 2002 in Va. even though the seller had (supposedly) rejected a much-higher only a few months before. I had the cash and could close right away and just caught the seller at the right moment when they were fed up with it. Turned out well.
But this is still knife-catching for all but the most savvy.
Anyone who can TRULY afford to own a $1 million home would not be so adversely affected by a $150,000 drop in value.
It is a very rare bird indeed who can truly afford even a 500K house, commonplace in many parts. Even if a person somehow had the million in cold hard cash, many cannot afford the upkeep, insurance and tax on a property that expensive. I hear people all the time throwing around figures like that, like it was nothing to them, yet in many cases they make only $75K a year and could not put $20K together if their life depended on it, without borrowing to do so.
That reminds me of the really funny gallows-humor commercial with a fellow riding around on his golf cart, bragging about all his stuff and acknowledging at the end it’s because he’s up to his eyeballs in debt.
Stanley Johnson. There is someone here who took his name as their alias
That was my favorite commercial. Millions of people watched that commercial and became just like him. I think I saw that commercial about 18 months ago at the earliest. I’m awestruck by the level of stupidity the last 5 years that people have had when it comes to personal finance. Is there a huge comet coming our way and we sensible people don’t know it? Because if that is so, then perhaps I would get into debt up to my eyeballs too!
“Many a truth is said in jest”.
Up to his eyeballs in debt, and what was his way out? Hint, it was a commercial for LendingTree. Refi your debt, and then you can keep on spedning more than you make. No problem, right?
“I hear people all the time throwing around figures like that, like it was nothing to them, yet in many cases they make only $75K a year and could not put $20K together if their life depended on it, without borrowing to do so.”
You mean the ones driving around in their $100k Mercedes and BMW’s? But they obviously can afford to own every expensive thing produced. You sure that $75k a year doesnt pay off the $100k car in 3 years and pay off the $500k house in 30?
HELOC - Don’t call it a loan
This is what ive been telling people, even my dad agrees. $500k house(and the taxes, insurance, etc that go with it) are for rich people. Those with “creative” financing do not count. Anyone that owns a $500k house today, I bet most of them bought it for $150k or so and own it free and clear. Those houses will drop down to around $200-250 once the bubble is over. I would need to win the lottery(possibly twice!) to afford a $500k house.
That’s funny. I was just thinking about that $100M Powerball (lottery) drawing a couple of weeks ago, and what I’d do. Purchasing a house above $500K was not one of them. Know what I did? Thought about all of the taxes, etc, and made a budget of what I had to live on per day, for the rest of my life. When you take things down to the nitty gritty, it aint all that pretty. I’d still work. I wouldn’t give it all away, either. Made me think, “Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it!”
Just drove down and up 4th St in St. Petersburg, FL. A few more boats and cars are for sell on street corners and yards. Yard sale signs out, seeing one house having a yard sale every Saturday for the past month. Seeing the same ‘for sale’ and ‘for rent’ signs for houses and businesses every weekend.
I assume this is due to the “Florida Exodus”, the real estate bust, and/or a slowing economy. Or, maybe things are “contained” to Florida???
Boats and cars and trucks for sale by the side of the street along West University in Gainesville. (The “nice” end!)
Don’t think it’s the exodus causing the sales because Alachua county had an increase in school enrollments.
Got a flyer at my apartment offering to buy out my lease and help me move into a home. (not clear who from - either a 3rd party or a front org for a homebuilder). How hot can the market here be if they are trying to “strip” the last marginal buyers from rental complexes like this? Still prices seem stubbornly high …
Why throw away money on rent, when you can throw away even more on an overpriced house?
and Fla property taxes and insurance?
OK, I’ve been all over Kona now in the last few days. It looks to me like they are in the inventory building phase but are still holding out for wishing prices.
On the 4th we drove around through the harbor area at Kalua Kona. We counted 6 open houses as we went through, on July 4th!
I’ve seen a bit of new construction and many lots for sale. Most inventory appears to be resale including condos.
Hilo was also rife with For Sale signs, as was every little town on the coast road.
Dude,
I was their on my honeymoon. We didn’t drive around Hilo enough for me to comment. But Kona… Construction everywhere. What struck me is the *huge* number of lots for sale south of Kona.
Did you see the one condo building with 5 units for sale?
Got popcorn and a pitcher of Mai-Tai?
Neil
Neil,
I also spent my honeymoon on the Big Island 3 years ago and have been back twice since then. Did you happen to check out the “affordable” lots/houses on the island–Hawaiian Ocean View Estates (HOVE)? Platted back in the 60s, there’s still plenty of open lots! No fresh water (must have rainwater collection system), no sewer system (just punch into a lava tube, it all flows downhill), and plenty of lava rock for creative yard displays–oh, and you have to supply your own topsoil too. You can own a new 800sf crackerbox for just under $200K (oh, no garage either)! This last trip we finally spent an hour driving around in HOVE to see what it was like–scary stuff, and apparently some scary people there too . . .
Oh, and I forgot to mention that only some streets have electricity/phone–check out this map:
http://www.hmckeerealty.com/hovemap.php
You can get by with a solar system and batteries. And a cell phone.
Today there are 846 residential listings in No. Kona, up from 577 in Jan. 06. I’ve seen it go as high as 900+ listings at different times. 846 listings represents 1 listing for every 32 residents in Kona. Compare to Hilo which has more than twice the population and only 305 residential listings. Kona is in for a world of hurt.
Levy County
Real estate quarrel sends one to jail
CHIEFLAND - A Levy County man was arrested Friday afternoon after deputies say he tried to renegotiate a real estate deal using a knife and a gun instead of a pencil and a calculator.
…
“We understand that Janet (Daniels) owns the property and there may have been a cash deal without a contract for him (Hamil) to buy it,” Sullivan said.
LOL — anyone who’s actually been to Chiefland will understand that one. It is OLD Florida — one of the “He needed killin’, yer honor” kind of towns.
Sounds like Moab, Utah. Just got back from that hole. Grrr.
From the Wash Post article:
When asked how much lower local values might go, John McClain, deputy director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University, said: “Not much. The fundamentals of the economy are very sound.”
….
He expects prices to increase about 2 percent this year. They may rise 4 or 5 percent in 2008. That’s none too exciting; he notes that the historical average is around 7 percent a year. “We probably won’t get back to that until 2009,” he said.
More from the GMU idiots I see.
Here’s their client list:
http://www.cra-gmu.org/capabilities.htm
Among others…
Winchester Homes
Pulte Homes
Richmond American Homes
Edgemoore Land
Dogwood Development Corporation
So, the question is, do these clients want an academic shill who will prop up the market or are they really paying for some expert advice. If it’s the latter, then I understand why the builders are in so much trouble.
going to 10million in 2 million years ?
Fuller scks - making GMU look stupid
Yep. Center for Regional Development is an embarrassment to GMU.
I’m all for academic freedom, but when you are a payed-shill leaching off of the name of a university…well, I dunno.
Probably won’t be their clients for long, when they can’t pay them for their services.
These dolts from George Mason have really distinguished themselves this year. Ben has collected staggeringly stupid “insights” from them over the last year alone. I say “insights” because these econodolts appear to be deaf, dumb and blind as well as innumerate.
Is there any intelligent life at George Mason University?
“Is there any intelligent life at George Mason University?”
Well, the former chair of the department of economics is a rightwing radio nut who openly consorts with a notorious oxycontin fiend, so judge for yourself.
Nevertheless, I’m proud to be a GMU alumni!
Dr. Williams is my very favorite replacement host..
Another cheer for Dr. Williams, a free trader as well as a good guy who can still dunk the ball. Didn’t he play with Dr. J?
Philadelphia born and raised, but i can’t find any reference to him playing pro ball anywhere.. much less for the 76er’s.
Dr. J didn’t start his basketball career at the 76er’s. Not even his pro career (ABL with the Nets).
Dr. J attended UMass in Amherst for a year before leaving to join the New York Nets of the ABA (American Basketball Association). When the NBA and the ABA merged, the owner of the Nets sold Dr. J’s contract to the 76ers to come up with the cash needed for the entry fee to join the NBA. Around the same time the Nets announced they were leaving the Nassau Coliseum on Long Island and moving to New Jersey.
“Philadelphia born and raised”
On the playground, is where I’m spendin’ most’a my days.
They do have two Nobel laureates in their economics department but this center is in the school of public policy.
I’m embarrassed to be a GMU alumnus.
Cinch
you mean the Oxymoron, the PigMan, Rush Limbaugh?
Update from Pullman, WA:
We finally had a few closings over the past two weeks (11 total) so I emailed our Realtor to get sale prices and seller concession info (she was the listing agent for several). However, this woman refuses to give me that information, keeps asking me “why do you need it?” (I’d like to buy a house eventually, wouldn’t it be good to know comps?), asking me how my family is doing etc… I suspect there is a story here, but I’ll probably have to wait until the sales info becomes available in the county office to get it.
My wife chatted with a couple that just had a house built in a subdivision we like. They had their home built for $82/sq ft (2500 sq ft 4/3 + $45k for lot, $250 total), whereas all of the neighbors paid $125/sq ft for their homes. Why? They decided to contract a builder from the Tri-cities area and side-step the local builders…
And the local builders tell us it is all about rising material costs.
We finally had a few closings over the past two weeks (11 total) so I emailed our Realtor to get sale prices and seller concession info (she was the listing agent for several).
Sales prices are public record as soon as a property is recorded. Sellers concessions are part of the contract and may not be public record.
Sale prices are a public record, but it takes a month or two for those records to become available in the Colfax county seat. Processing time. On a positive note, they are in the processing of putting everything on a web portal so that we can get complete sales history for any property in the county in an instant–as well as faster posting of new sales.
(A) Sounds to me like you need a new Realtor, no matter what;
(B) Also sounds to me like she’s feeding an alligator or two of her own.
Even $82 a foot is too much. There are builders in Texas willing to build for $50/foot. I see 2500 living square feet houses *including* lot selling for $150k! Buying an existing house costs less than having a new house built.
Sorry if this is the wrong place, but I need some talking points. I’m visiting my father in Bell County, TX, and am having trouble convincing him of the problem facing this immediate area. Austin, Dallas, or Houston stats mean nothing to him since clearly “it’s different here” (because of Ft. Hood).
Where can I find real numbers about this immediate area? Even driving here last night, the newly-finished and unfinished developments are scary, yet I’m unable to convince him that the story here WILL NOT have a happy ending. I even passed five billboards advertising KBB in the final 20 miles (err, would those be considered an asset by their creditors I wonder…)
Our biggest argument (only been here 18 hours so far) has been over property taxes. I have zero basis from experience (life-long single, renter), but I am convinces his property taxes will go down over the next five years based on my education from this site. He thinks that’s just plain stupid, since it’s gone up ~20% each year since 2000 - he retired from the Army, and had saved enough over his 22yr career to build a large, waterfront house on the shore of Lake Belton (true waterfront access).
Don;t misunderstand, we ‘enjoy’ debating - but I’m clearly at a disadvantage with zero life experience in these matters and am looking for as much hard evidence as possible (hard numbers). The house is paid for, appraises in $400’s.
How does a property tax appraisal differ from an independent appraisal used for RE transactions? I argue they should be very similar, but now that I’ve studied the Texas Property Tax code all night (I did say we take our arguments seriously) and see the guidelines for Mass Appraisals I have to doubt my first reaction. His position is that it’s all but impossible to make the Tax Appraisal District take into account any individual details of a property regardless of the appeals process. He doesn’t think anyone with the dept has ever even seen his home other than the overhead imagery they use to calculate square footage based on roof-size (which in itself seems ridiculous to me, yet quite possibly correct).
Finally, any suggestions where to find trend data, default/foreclosure stats, fraud/flip anecdotes, etc… ZIP 76513
RE taxes don’t go down -they just raise the rate- until gov programs dissapear it won’t happen
they had ft hood on the close down list and that could happen again
this is your father?
To your credit, you do see that you’re “..clearly at a disadvantage with zero life experience in these matters..”
I’d forget about doing it myself (as his child).
..maybe try and set up a situation where dad is confronted with some knowledgable RE-bubble-aware person whom dad would in some ways considers his equal or superior.. perhaps with a military background.
Brian (I’m feeling a little like “Dr. Don” here) — you didn’t mention why you care. It sounds almost as if you want to encourage him to sell and leave. But it also sounds like he loves his place and doesn’t want to hear anything bad about it. Houses come and go, but you get only one real dad. If he’s trying to talk you into buying there, that’s an entirely different matter — but it doesn’t sound like it.
The BRAC (base realignment and closure) list might help you, but it is very hard to read. Maybe someone you know or can meet at the base can tell you whether Ft. Hood is a beneficiary of the latest BRAC agreements. TxChick knows more about Texas than anyone I can remember from this board — maybe she can help.
Bottom line, though, is that even if you win your argument with your father, it could be a hollow victory that you could regret for a long time. I sure wish my daddy were still around, so I could say, “Yeah, Dad, you’re probably right.”
I care because I want to be in his position one day, and I’m looking for a reason to even bother - since I live in New Orleans, deal with the misery there daily, visit my dad’s 3000 sq ft lakefront home twice a year to get away only to find he’s become the most miserable person I know.
However said it seems as if I want him to sell and move: you’ve tragically misunderstood my post.
He’s 64 and finally decided to divest himself of all external business interests to enjoy retirement. i.e. very soon he’ll be on a fixed income (albeit a very comfortable one) but is now worried how he’s going to afford the property taxes if appreciation continues at it’s current pace. You’d really have to see this place to understand - he built it by himself at a total material+land cost of $147k, and each appraisal since gets closer and closer to $500k.
He’s done things the right way, is close to having an aneurism every time he drives to the store and sees the McMansions of all those who haven’t, and has little hope that he’ll be able to enjoy it like he’d planned - ALL BECAUSE OF PROPERTY TAX INCREASES. House is fully paid.
Because of this, for the first time I seriously have to ask “why the F even bother trying to follow those footsteps if this is the result”
Obviously I don’t think that, but throwing CA and FL stats does little.
P.S. after the BRAC closings of the 80-90’s, Ft. Hood has DRAMATICALLY grown in the past 10 years. It won’t be closed any time soon, for whoever suggested that nonsense.
Welcome to the world of California pre-Proposition 13.
Exactly, joey. Prop 13 is the best thing that happened to CA residents.
I voted for Proposition 13 and I was 19 years old. I would have done the same ten years later, 20 years later, and would do the same thing today. I got a good kick out of the bureaucrats back then telling us all the scary stories, that it will cut to the bone, that essential services will have to be cut. Well what’s essential for them was socialist programs. The liberal local media people would give biased reports in favor of the status quo socialists. It was a real circus. It reminded me decades later of the falldown of communist Romania. The bread and butter that pampered the well-to-do communist party became known only after the execution of Ceaucescou. The fat cat bureaucrats in CA are still thriving, as they found other sources of plunder, er, income.
I’ve had the “why bothers” for about 3 years now. I was working like a fiend for 15 years to pay off my schooling and save up for a down payment…but the goalposts just kept moving.
So I dropped out. I closed my company and do what I damn well please now. I’ll be out of money in a few years, but at least I will have enjoyed some freedom…and no longer feel like I have an invisible boot on my throat. My attitude toward handouts has changed too…used to be too proud for any of that, but it’s looking kind of foolish to work hard so I can have it taken from me and handed out.
It’s nice, for now. I would worry about the future, but it doesn’t appear that what I do has much effect on it.
I haven’t closed my little part time company because a)I like the work and b) I’d rather stay cash flow positive. Other than that, I can relate to some of the “why bothers”.
I used to yearn to be debt-free and have a paid for little house in VT. But it got insane - even at the time (the start of the crazy upward trend) all we could afford on 1 income was a fixer-upper about a 40 minute commute to the nearest job center. We spent the last 7 years with work, work, and then for “fun” work on the house.
So we crossed off a major part of the “to do” list and sold. I’m still befuddled at this moment as to why I wanted a house other than it was cheaper (at the time…). I’m not sure I ever want a house again, although given enough time and low prices we may.
Brian — your Dad might be a good candidate for a reverse mortgage. It’s clear that you love him, but it also seems that you’re trying to protect him against that which he doesn’t want to be protected against. A tough call for all of us. Since you noted that Ft. Hood won’t be downsized re BRAC, then the value of your father’s place, relative to the rest of the world, so to speak, should increase reasonably well enough that his net value won’t be affected enough to cause heartburn anywhere in the family.
IMO, your choice as advisor is fairly simple: (a) Dad, if you want to stay here, let’s get you into the lowest-net-cost reverse mortgage; (b) Dad, if you think that these property taxes are going to eat you alive AND you don’t want a reverse mortgage to offset those costs, let’s talk about alternative places that will give you the next-best happiness and quality of life.
Brian, your father draws a nice military pension. A pension that has cost of living adjustments (COLA) applied each year. Also, I assume he is drawing social security (or soon will be) and that also has COLA included. Those annual increases plus the tax deductibility of the property taxes shoult cover (probably exceed) future property tax increases.
Given that he has retiree military health insurance plus his house is paid for, I don’t think he has much at all to worry about. If thats all he has to worry about, then he is being miserable because he enjoys it.
“If thats all he has to worry about, then he is being miserable because he enjoys it.”
Hazard — great point — I overlooked that entirely.
I wonder if he’s suffering from depression—we had a 70 year old family member go into a pretty deep depression after moving from the home they lived in for 30 years. He’s now on anti-depressants and a different person. Just a thought.
CarrieAnn,
same thing in my family. Had to really badger the family doc to consider anti-depressants. Seems as if many docs assume depression is a natural component of aging…it’s not. Your dad worked hard all his life, and it may be depression, not his finances that are bringing him down–seriously, do check this out. I really had to fight to get those meds for an elderly relative…but the difference in quality of life was huge.
Brian : Property taxes in TX are high at 3% or so. They will drag the overall appreciation potential as this is significant outlay in comparison to a mortgage.
One thing that nobody can dispute is interest rates. They are going up or even staying flat AND credit standards are rightfully tightening. This will drain the availability of people to get access to credit even in Fort Hood !
In inner loop Houston, there is a boat load of McMansion townhomes. Doesn’t mean they are a good investment as more keep going up but there is still plenty of land and shitehouses right next to them.
To come back to your Dad’s situation on rising appraisals due to speculative market. Apart from questioning his tax assessment, I don’t see what else he can do. Property taxes in TX are a source of local and state income. Like everyone, they like asset appreciation as it makes them paper rich that is until they see the tax bill.
I’d agree to disagree until 2008 when things will have started to pick up momentum. (Tax assessment on markets lag by a year).
His property taxes will never go down. However, when your dad turns 65 he needs to file for the Over-65 Exemption, there is a property tax “ceiling” that automatically limits School taxes to the amount you paid in the year that you qualified for the homestead and Over-65 exemption. However, other taxes continue to increase every year.
If he is disabled, he should file for the Over-65 & disabled exemption.
If he is truly on the lake, he might see if he can get his neighbors to lobby to get their land re-zoned as recreational(generally this is only done for well connected people eg. the President/Governor and friends. This designation pays extremely little in property taxes.
Barring that, depending on how it is zoned, he might be able to get 4 goats and qualify as a ranch, again paying lower property taxes.
Brain
Skip’s right about the 65 exemption. Also, TX legislature passed a new biz tax that will lower the rate .17 for 07 and .33 in 08 per 100 assessed on school taxes. Interestingly, seems from my first year back in TX, the appraisal district has found new and improved ways to scr.., take advantage of property owners and am waiting to see if my appeal becomes a protest.
Also, sounds like your Dad, as ex-military needs something to do (thinking of mine now) and taking on a volunteer or community role would be great for him and his community.
Tell him we appreciate his service.
Everybody wants government services but nobody wants to pay the taxes.
I am in south Frqnce now, was in London, Scottland, Spqin and now here: Prices are out of reach for most people; Everwhere I traveled everyone spoke qbout the high prices of real estate:
the building in S Spain is out of control: Houses; building high rises everywhere:
Was in the very north of Scotland and saw new construction:
Watch out this one is going to be big!
Believe it or not, real estate prices have been exploding over the past 3 years in UGANDA! I do a lot of work down there and have been dumbfounded at the prices for real estate around the capital city.
So after the next coup what are the odds that your property rights will be honored?
I’ve heard that you want to stay away from the BBQ at “Idi Land.”
OK, I’m too old. History has been forgotten, or not repeated in government schools. Let me try that again:
[The dark humor] I’ve heard that you want to stay away from the BBQ at “Idi Amin Torture Land.” This is a reference to the dictator of Uganda, who reputedly ate the corpses of his enemies (hopefullyly using a dry rub, such as Galena Street). He once made a captive drink gasoline, then personally cut a hole in the man’s stomach and lit the mess as it poured out. Idi Amin was allowed, by our holier-than-thou government and all others, to live out his days in Saudi Arabia and to die in peace. As, for that matter, was Pol Pot.
Veering O/T — if you hate that crap, vote for Ron Paul.
Wow. Amazing how twisted some people can be.
About two years ago a contractor buddy of mine was getting excited about a investment prospect a friend of his was trying to sell to him. His “friend” had told about how rich he was getting building condos in Haiti, and wanted to sell him a piece of the action. I listened in stunned disbelief, the only thing I could say was “are you nuts!!!” This got my buddy really mad at me, and would not listen to me when I tried to explain what might happen to his “investment”. A couple days latter, we were watching the History Channel, they had show on the Diplomatic Protection Service, with a segment on Haiti. It was about how some DPS members had stopped a mob from killing a person with machetes. I ask him what if that mob got mad at Americans, marched down to the beach, chopped his tennents into little pieces, and burned down his condos. He got mad at me again, but he never did make that “investment”.
A buddy of mine has a house nearing completion on Jamaica. He says if anyone trespasses on his 2 acres of property, a local there with a machete will take care of the problem. My buddy trusts the Jamaicans. Haitians are a different group, however. Too many revolutions going on in those parts. Easier to just keep buying precious metal bullion and squirreling it away than to flee the only nation in the world that holds the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights as sacred. The Bill of Rights and D of I is in our psyche, and infects everyone eventually, even second generation Americans.
sorry for bad spelling French key boards are not the same as US
C’est la guerre.
c’est le computique
Wishing prices are still in the stratosphere in northern NV and WA (the two areas I follow). While inventories are exploding, and sales plummeting, it seems as if it only takes one GF to buy for everyone to believe in their price. There is so little transparency that when a home goes under contract, I believe many people assume it is at or near the list price. But sold comps and wishing prices tell two different stories. Sellers are stubbornly holding on to their dreams, but that’s all they are.
“There is so little transparency that when a home goes under contract, I believe many people assume it is at or near the list price.”
And the Realtors want to keep it this way (see my post above). This whole business of the MLS needs to be replaced by a PUBLIC, searchable, web based listing so that both buyers and sellers can get accurate, timely information.
You are so right. Realtor’s control of information is obscene, and I hope it will come to an end as people (as regulators) realize that it has played a big role in driving up prices (folks simply don’t know how to evaluate prices — what is a reasonable price per square foot).
This problem is compounded in non-disclosure states, which number about a dozen. There, you can wait and wait and still never know the price.
On top of that is the interesting problem of selling prices higher than asking prices — even in markets (such as mine) where offers are never over asking. I guess this means kickbacks or owners taking out loans for improvements??? Regardless, it drives up the comps and creates the impression that there is more appreciation in value than there really is.
Non-disclosure is a SERIOUS problem that we should be thinking about how to mobilize around. Now, thanks to Ben, I’ve learned we won’t even know the old rigged “days on market” stats anymore.
Amen all of you,
With the exception of perhaps marriage and parenthood, few decisions have a greater effect on one’s finances than homeownership, yet we have to go to the fox to learn about the chickens in the coop. Even worse, the RE shills seem to be the primary folks interviewed by the media. One of the greatest things about the internet is that is has greatly increased transparency. I think that process should continue.
I recommend that people petition their local property appraiser’s offices to create or improve the latters’ Websites to add the information most people here seek.
There is a county in which I want to buy where I can find out everything about any house I am looking at, online — the house specs, per the tax office, the prices paid and when and by whom, a plan/diagram with dimensions of the house - floor by floor, a plat diagram of the lot with a ruler for measuring any line distance, the ability to see the size, type and ownership of adjacent lots, etc.
With this information available, you don’t need to pound on your real estate agent. Count on the latter for all the good stuff your government won’t tell you — soap opera stuff, the local gossip, etc. — it usually is very valuable information, if you have a good agent.
Above all, hassle those who pick your pockets for taxes to publish online all information that is (theoretically) available to the public — which should be everything they know.
“This problem is compounded in non-disclosure states, which number about a dozen. There, you can wait and wait and still never know the price.”
With that, I wholeheartedly agree and believe that those state should be sued accordingly. Funny, I don’t see the ACLU stepping up to the plate on that one.
In Santa Clara County, California, here are the trendlines over a 4-wk period, here are the trendlines from http://www.foreclosure.com for total foreclosures, pre-foreclosures, and BKs -
June 15 - 2972
June 22 - 2992
June 29 - 3079
July 06 - 3161
Sally, do you or any other readers here have an account at foreclosure.com? If so, is it worth it?
Exeter - I’m not in the mkt, as I own my home free & clear, so no need to have an acct w/ foreclosure.com. There is lots of free info there, however.
“To that end, the SoCalMLS BOD, (…) have decided to remove the Days on Market and Cumulative Days on Market fields from all Client reports.”
I followed the link and see, the “days on market” are still in the Agent reports. They seem to think that ignorant buyers are easier to led by the nose. Arrogant bast…
”
“To that end, the SoCalMLS BOD, (…) have decided to remove the Days on Market and Cumulative Days on Market fields from all Client reports.”
I followed the link and see, the “days on market” are still in the Agent reports. They seem to think that ignorant buyers are easier to led by the nose. Arrogant bast…”
I dont think it really matters. If you look constantly on zipreality you will constantly see the same place coming and going to restart the days on market thing. One place I had made an offer on last summer sat for over 365 days after I made an offer and they just reput it on. For the same price too. I offered $365k on a $399,800 condo. They countered with $399,500. I hope it never sells even at 1/4 of the price which it was less than $100k 4 years ago.
HELOC - Don’t call it a loan
I found that the information there is out of date and totally inaccurate. I had a bank REO across the street that has yet to come up (there is a for sale sign now in the yard after 6 months of sitting empty) and another knife catcher flipper bought a reo house down the street back in April and it is still showing active on the web site( a 1370 sq ft house, trying to sell for 220k, however right across the street a recent REO sale pending on a 2000 sq foot house with daylight, 209k. Ouch). My neighbor next door is doing a short sale and nothing on the site yet. In case you were wondering, yes, I rent. 5 reo’s on my block plus the next door short sale. Only 3 of the 5 show up and the sold one back in April still shows active. Am I in CA or FL? Maybe AZ? Nada. A nice part of Kansas City.
There are tons of spec homes just languishing on the market. Most are high end homes priced for the top 10% of the general population. How in the world are these builders, many of them local, carrying these properties? How long can they hang on? Many are not reducing their prices, leading one to believe that they have too much into it to do such a thing. The carrying costs have to be bleeding these guys dry. A lot of these properties have been sitting vacant for more than a year. It wouldn’t appear that this can continue for much longer.
In our market (Bozeman MT.) the same thing is happening, with spec home all over the place for sale. My guess what is happening is this. If you owe the bank $400, 000 and you can’t pay, thats your problem. If a 100 guys each owe the bank $400, 000, and all of them can’t pay, it’s the banks problem. Having lived in Texas during the S&L fiasco, your not going to know about bank failures untill the very day they fail.
Hi Duane,
I noticed that the Bozeman MLS is up to almost 1200 from 1000 earlier this spring. Is there any general awareness in town that RE is in trouble? Honest media coverage? Are there still any sales at all?
I regret injecting the personal details earlier, overshadowed the question and even led my own misinterpretations of the responses…
Let me try this again, but put more simply:
How can an amateur determine current statistics for a given market, such as:
-past and current inventory levels for a ZIP
-past and current NOD/foreclosure numbers
-median income vs. median home value (census data?)
-anything else not immediately coming to mind?
Or is this even possible for an amateur researcher due to closed, professional access-only databases? If not, then who would generally have access to such data (tax assesor, RE agents, bank reps, etc)?
I’m interested in gathering data useful for showing trends (as well as sustainability), specifically 76513.
Firstly, i do not believe real estate professionals of any stripe are genuinely ignorant of the real numbers.
And I’ve heard that the MLS stats are available in a data base, and can be mixed and matched spread sheet style to output whatever is desired.
So, maybe one way is to search for a RE broker or agent who will give me whatever unbiased information i desire, perhaps for a fee.. or, if i present myself as a knowledgable and qualified buyer, at no cost.
Lately, many agents have nothing but time on their hands..
Sold signs going up around me for condos and townhouses in San Jose. Then the sold sign comes down and its back on the market again. I guess the Feds tightening up loan applications is having an impact after all.
Lol, same thing happened with the condos next to my apt block.
They were awful inside anyway (although they did have granite countertops). I wouldn’t even rent the place.
Speaking of Chiefland Fla. Bought raw land their in 2004. 20 acres for 62k. Sold it a year later (sweating it out too) for 145K. Try not to look at these things now, but just saw my old piece on MLS for 240k. No sellers remorse here tho. Point being, we got a long way to correct yet. All the Florida land I bought in 2004 is still currently offered on MLS for at least 4 times what I paid initially in 2004. (Panama City, Chiefland and Tallahassee). Glad I booted all of it in 2005. Chiefland was a nice place I guess but did not quite see it as a retirement place as a former New Yorker. Was a real culture shock. I did have a nice view of the nuclear power plant though. Funny they don’t mention that as a selling point on MLS!
Levy County is the setting for the movie Rosewood.
This is because Rosewood, Fl was in Levy County.
Caveat emptor.
LEHIGH VALLEY, ALLENTOWN, BETHLEHEM, EASTON section of PA prices have come down. They are still not even close to what they should be though. The only homes selling are $175k and under and even those sit for months and months, they still need to drop another 60k and then maybe. The papers wont talk about it but it’s obvious too anyone with a clue. The rental market is hilarious, homes for rent average 1,200k - 2,500k and they are renting (I wonder why, lol).
LOL you can get a nice house in NW PA for around $50k. $100k gets you an upper class house. Who the heck pays $175k?
Fools commuting from the NJ & NYC bubble started coming here around 2000. That’s why the realtors and local rag (morning call) try and say it’s the only reason prices went up. Now prices are dropping because people can’t handle the 3-5 hour daily commute. Actually it’s funny because the morning call ran an article showing that since 2005 barely anyone moved here.
Our prices are going to drop back too pre 2000 or worse, that’s great IMO because no many locals (medium income is 36k) are priced out because of commuters. The rental market is the best, each week more and more future foreclosures hit the market asking for 1,200k - 2,500k for rent. You can rent a nice home for under $850 a month (pre bubble no commuters prices) easily around here. An apartment is still $600-700 for a 2 or 3 bedroom, talk about Rent vs Purchase out of whack, we are gonzo around here.
It’s crashing and the local media (controlled by realtors) refuse to admit or talk about it. Once a week you get a 2 paragraph story that’s it.
It’s going to get ugly and I love it. Fools thinking commuters (our geoprahic location hasn’t changed) were driving up the price. What about the bubble markets were they lived forced them here and they overpaid and have negative equitity. It’s bad real bad!
LEHIGH VALLEY, ALLENTOWN, BETHLEHEM, EASTON section of PA prices have come down. They are still not even close to what they should be though. The only homes selling are $175k and under and even those sit for months and months, they still need to drop another 60k and then maybe. The papers wont talk about it but it’s obvious too anyone with a clue. The rental market is hilarious, homes for rent average 1,200k - 2,500k and they are renting (I wonder why, lol).
Dutchess County NY- The number of for sales signs is staggering. Little to nothing is moving and prices are utterly delusional. Comments by koolaid drinkers are “prices are still going up”. To that I ask them, but what is selling? They stand there with a dazed look while I tell them about OSG/Hardtack data that show FALLING prices. What amazes me is the continued stupid talk by those who have no interest in the direction of prices.
Oh By the way: BIG McMansion development in Beekman called Legends where my accountant lives. The sub-contractor who did all the site work there lives next door to me and told me that there are 28 defaults/foreclosures in there….. and there are only 150 houses or so. These wigwams are MONSTROSITIES… Enormous 5000ft2 gargantuans. My account who is not just any accountant. He’s the guy Accenture, casinos and banks call. He’s a very in the loop guy. Anyways, in talking with him he said expect 30-40% price reductions here. I say more…..Schadenfreude nonetheless.
Next to Dutchess, I’ve been watching Litchfield Cty, in Ct. The low-end there, under 500k, has been showing some haircuts on pricing–8-10% or so, but the same houses are still listed since last fall, and now more and more on the very low end-250k and less, showing up…big realtors like Klemm show listings with with slash banners across the photos saying “reduced”. Waiting to see some real price movement in the low end by October, I’m guessing.
We’re neighbors. I’m 5 minutes from Bulls Bridge. Litchfield is hilarious with all the Sothebys signs. Talk about dragging a internationally reknown name through the dirt by hanging a Sothebys sign on a 3/2 ranch worth 150k and assigning a 500k wish price. Apparently, Sothebys has no shame either.
I’m just a renter in W. Cornwall…friend’s place for the summer. Love the area, but the prices are too crazy.
By the way, I live full time in NY, and Sotheby’s had a big, lavish RE office on Columbus Ave, across from the Nat. History Museum and the dog run. Walked by there this afternoon, and the place is gone, even the sign is gone, only the ghost lettering on the paint.
Litchfield is so beautiful, if sanity ever returned, I’d love to live there full time.
“Litchfield is so beautiful, if sanity ever returned, I’d love to live there full time.”
I might have agreed with you 6-9 years ago but the place is nothing more than a yuppified fantasy now.
“yuppified fantasy”
LOL. Who are all the yuppies, RE agents? Expect reversion to the mean (after flip to the underside) regarding this as well.
Update from Dutchess County NY- The number of for sales signs is staggering. Little to nothing is moving and prices are utterly delusional. Comments by koolaid drinkers are “prices are still going up”. To that I ask them, but what is selling? They stand there with a dazed look while I tell them about OSG/Hardtack data that show FALLING prices. What amazes me is the continued stupid talk by those who have no interest in the direction of prices.
Oh By the way: BIG McMansion development in Beekman called Legends where my accountant lives. The sub-contractor who did all the site work there lives next door to me and told me that there are 28 defaults/foreclosures in there….. and there are only 150 houses or so. These wigwams are MONSTROSITIES… Enormous 5000ft2 gargantuans. My account who is not just any accountant. He’s the guy Accenture, casinos and banks call. He’s a very in the loop guy. Anyways, in talking with him he said expect 30-40% price reductions here. I say more…..Schadenfreude nonetheless.
Anecdotes south of Syracuse:
I took a ride around the lake. It’s a narrow (finger) lake and one end is really just for access or has a restaurant and private club property. So only 3 roads have more than 1 or 2 homes on them. The road with the most private of properties (multiacre treed lots) was littered with for sale signs. Some have been there for over a year and one is a foreclosure. Another is a flip and is a true dump.
The road most people take when coming out from Syracuse to sight see only has 2-3 for sale but has turned over heavily already in the last few years and early this year(smart money left now held by bagholders at top prices?).
The shore that parallels the main road into Syracuse hasn’t seen a lot of turnover and I still don’t see much for sale on that road. It’s probably fair to say this 3rd road offeres the smallest and oldest of the lake properties although that doesn’t mean uncared for.
The local July 4 arts and crafts fair only offered about 2/3 - 1/2 the vendors it did 2-3 years ago.
From the “not plugged in” file, an acquaintance is having a job location change to Manhatten. Although he is realtively highly ranked in banking and so (i believe) should be more aware, they have no plans to sell this home before buying their next one.
longtime lurker, etc
You and your wife make between $190k-210. You want to buy in the NYC area (LI, NNJ, anywhere but NYC) this winter when the prices drop. What should you set your max limit at for buying?
You have saved enough for a 20% downpayment on a 600k house, plus you’ll have a nice chunk left over for some furniture, maybe to finish the basement, and still have a couple months living expenses (like the financial advisor recommends). HOWEVER, you also will probably be having two kids starting in 3/4 years. Your wife makes 60% of the aforementioned salary, and you make 40%. You have some family to watch the baby, but you’re 99% sure you want one parent to be around.
Your credit is fine, with zero debt.
Do you go with a 400k house (which in the NYC area, ain’t much) or make a move on a 600k house? Or go in between on a 500k house?
based on bankrate:
300k loan, est $1975 motgage
400k loan, est $2630 mortgage
500k loan, est $3293 mortgage
just curious
longtime lurker?
First, ask yourselves if your jobs are outsourceable. Serious. Think thoroughly. If you are not certain, I suggest saving enough to cover 40%. Besides, ARM resets will occur through 2011 all over the USA, and prices in your areas are sure to decline over the next 4 years.
i was sorely tempted to construct a scenario so heinous that the nightmares would start immediately.
No one these days asks themselves if their jobs are outsourceable - because they’re different - just like their city is different, their children are special, and their tastes are unique.
Welcome to “special little snowflake” nation!
A job requiring a US citizen with a security clearance is not outsourceable.
It is certainly RIF-able, VSIP-able, dowsize-able, and even just plain fire-able, but it is not outsourceable.
this winter when the prices drop
The big drops will come in 2008 & 2009. Why catch a falling knife?
Exactly.
Answer: rent!
I would not even THINK of buying real estate in NYC or any of the surrounding suburbs until the stock market corrects ( assuming it does- but I believe it will). So far the NYC real estate market has been immune from ANY weaknesses. Despite the fact the NY area had appreciated even faster than So Fla where I now live. If one believes that real estate is heading down- it is illogical to think equities will be immune. Its all the same bubble.The same hedge fund geniuses that helped to create a speculative housing market (via CDO’s and their subsequent overleveraging) have in fact true to form also helped to levitate their own local real estate. Most were not in the biz in 1987-1990 when NY real estate last corrected. When the pain becomes personal and local, only then will the smart guys squeal. Until equities correct, Greater NY area real estate should be avoided at all costs!!! RENT for present time please.
We are 1ish income family. First, rent a while longer - don’t be a knife catcher. You do not need to have a house for a baby. They take up 2 square feet of space and would rather hang out in the room you are in anyway. Heck, you don’t need a house for older children - ours are 4 and 7 and we just moved from a house to an apartment building. If you have any WWII relatives left, hit them up for stories about raising children and babies in small apartments in the city. You life will seem ridiculously easy by comparison.
Second, when you do buy a house, make it as cheap as you possibly can. Overhead is everything when trying to make it on a reduced income and raising kids. In other words, I would vote for the 300K loan or less if you can possibly make it that way.
OK, in Rhode Island we are now experiencing a mixed delusioned market. On one side of town we have a house (3,000 sq ft on 2 arcres in great neighborhood) that was listed for the last year or more sell for close to 100,000 off its listing for 380,000. Meanwhile, on the other side of town we have a new listing for a small raised ranch on 1/4 acre at 2100 sq ft going for 355,000. In short, there are those who are still delusional who are slowing awaking to the fact that the market has changed and that their little piece of crap house is no longer in the running for the big money - the 30% haircut in New England is a reality and its finally starting to show itself!
What town in RI?
I drove today from Panama City, Florida, to Gulf Shores, Alabama, via Highway 98.
It seems like everything is for sale, even worse than when I went through that way a year ago. Most street corners have clusters of for sale signs promoting everything fron plush waterfront mansions to generic tract houses to McMansions to trailers–oops, manufactured homes. One place was marked “Make Offer!” It seems like the entire coast is for sale.
Coming back, I took a more inland route, I-10 and Highway 20. We’re talking a good ways from the coast, up in the piney woods where there are no nearby amenities like shopping, medical care, etc. Lots for sale there, too, including quite a few houses clearly built on spec. I saw several would-be “communities” (i.e. subdivisions) with grandiose entrances but not a single house in them, just a pretty gate and a driveway to nowhere.
South Florida gets all the media attention, but things are shaping up for a real fall in the Panhandle.
NWFla,
Thanks you for your post. This is the kind of thing the national media should be covering…it would give those who try to follow the news a decent heads-up about the real state of the economy. But, nada. How complete the carnage will be is absent from the national media…with respect, we are all Joes without access to the blogosphere and the information available here.
I’m guessing that the empty spaces were in Freeport. Take a very small town with a population of maybe 1200 people tops, then have plans for 8,000-9,000 new homes be approved by the county with zero attempts to bring in new jobs along with the new homes, and that entire area was delusionally set up to fail, even if they’d got some building in during the boom years.
A couple of the smaller developments there have already been bank repos before they even got the roads in.
They’d also been selling the area as a more affordable area than the beach, but when you can find new construction single family south of the bay for less than $300K, that argument doesn’t work anymore.
So right now, they’re stuck either trying to claim that the hourlong commute to Eglin AFB isn’t that bad, (yeah right) or that the new Panama City Airport is going to result in some kind of new tourist boom because BA and Lustansa are going to start offering direct London-PCB and Frankfort-PCB daily flights (which is so impossible I don’t know where to start)
The homes that are selling surprisingly well are the new construction that’s within a half hour of Eglin, mostly on the south side of Crestview.
Yep, it was Freeport, a pretty area but one that might as well be south Alabama in terms of economy and landscape.
And I share your skepticism about the airport, but it’s amazing how many people really do believe this area is going to become Palm Beach once it’s finished. Ridiculous, yes, but wishful thinking is like that.
“In my neighborhood, home prices continue to increase. It’s not double-digit annually, but the year-to-year trend is still slightly upward. By the way, we bought in March of ‘06 and feel that our house is holding its value well.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/06/AR2007070601016_2.html
This is a duplicate link. I happened to find this and post it before I read this thread. Sorry.
How soon before we start seeing “Florida-type” headlines for the Inland Empire (So. Cal.). There are two areas I am monitoring. One shows only a few houses on the market, but they’re not selling. Another area has doubled in inventory for sale but all the houses I looked at last year have already sold.
Has anyone seen the movie, Freedom to Fascism? I’m hoping this whole housing mess will bring down the Federal Reserve that caused this mess.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1656880303867390173&q=freedom+to+fascism&total=895&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0
North County San Diego (coastal):
Residential:
Lower end still dead, with prices now listed in the late 2003 range (about 15-20% off, with much more to go). Higher end (mid-high, established areas) still flat since 2004.
Commercial:
Based on what others were commenting on here, I took a look at commercial properties. Not sure if there’s been a shift or not, but almost all of the commercial buildings & shopping centers have vacant space for lease. Definitely no shortage of commercial space. Some spaces have been for lease for over a year.
Since I haven’t been paying too much attention in the past, not sure if it’s much of a change, but will keep track of it from now on.
Out of control government doing anything “someone” wants department
Result: low lying parts of Dallas will see a precipitous drop in property values in the next decade or so.. just as soon as another 100 year monsoon hits.
http://www.dallasobserver.com/2007-07-05/news/go-with-your-gut/
Cliff Notes version:
Dallas has a big river going through it.
The river and its flood control levee system points in the general direction from Mexico to Ross Perot’s Alliance Airport in Fort Worth and points North like Chicago.
Solution to someone’s problem? A plan to build a beautiful park and recreation system inside the levees. Plan mutates into 90% about building a large freeway inside the levee and 10% about pretty stuff in the city.
Luckily Dallas has a new mayor who is a former construction executive with a hard hat philosophy of “get ‘er done!”
Love the tag line:
” is exactly what happened to New Orleans. The difference between Dallas and New Orleans? This referendum.” (Petition for a vote on the silly part of the project.)
Visited my old hood this weekend 93021 CA. Duplexes going for 500K to 700K thats 2 bedroom 2 bath to 3 bedroom 2 bath. Kinda pricey for 1500 sq feet. there were many for sale however.
Where’s the new ‘hood?
I live in Phoenix now, ahwatukee and rent a small newer house for 1200 a month. I plan to buy in NW Tucson at the bottom of this RE bubble
Thanks, people.
* longtime lurker = come here often, dont post
* outsourceable? neither is, but we’re also in industries where you want to change jobs every 5 or so years (media and pharm sales)
* easy to say prices WILL go down in the NYC area (based on the last crash, based on how asking prices are being lowered 6k-10k each month around NYC) but most of this is happening to homes in the 800k and up range
* it all depends on whether or not people NEED to sell for whatever reason or if they just want to CASH OUT. it seems as if 75% of the homes in the NYC-area market are people just trying to cash out. They missed the 2005 boat and though it’s early, most are demanding the price their neighbor got two years ago. They’re holding firm because they don’t HAVE to sell. hopefully, this changes
I’m in a similar situation financially here in NOVA. My wife and I make around $200K a year and have similar savings. We’ve decided to wait until Sept-Oct of 2008 and see what the state of the market is at that point. I don’t think it will be the bottom at that point, but if things have dropped enough, I’ll consider getting into the market since we’re looking for a home and not an investment. I don’t know how things are in NY but there’s no way I’d get into the market around here right now.
I guess I must really be an old timer, because when we bought at 2.5x income, we only figured in one income. If something happens to one of your jobs how do you keep the house. At least with using one income, maybe the other one can keep things going. But we had 35% down too, so I guess times have really changed.
If you’re an old timer, maybe most families only HAD one income? My wife’s grandfather told us about how he drove truck in the mid 50’s, TOOK HOME $300 per month (so maybe made $375 gross?), and bought a house for $8,500. So, less than 2x gross. Only NEEDED one income. Yes, times have changed.
http://tinyurl.com/36kppb
Nice POS in Tucson. haha
Hey, what happens when you have one income, one wife, and two kids?
We do it. Lots of families survive with only one breadwinner.
“Hey, what happens when you have one income, one wife, and two kids?”
I’m living this exact scenario in the middle of Washington state because I couldn’t afford to live in California where I was raised. It’s mostly OK, but we are very tired of the long winters. OTOH, we are debt free!
Lots of families survive with only one breadwinner.
They’re taking an enormous risk. I’ve seen far too many stay-at-home Moms, including my own, become destitute single parents when the breadwinner died, fell madly in love with someone else, or decided that marriage and parenthood just weren’t for them.
“Lots of families survive with only one breadwinner.”
Even in this cheap town, we call them doctors and lawyers.
Saw an open house in Saratoga CA today. 2,666 ft2, nice remodel, good school, asking $1.48. It was jam packed, offers on Tuesday, I think it will be 1.65m based on the recent sales of houses in need of remodel for $1.55. Prices are not going up but not going down either. There may be a lessening of demand in September, I think a lot of families are trying to get into the school districts before school starts. The local economy is still pretty strong (not 1999 strong but that’s probably good!) so the hoped-for 50% price declines are not likely barring economic catastrophe. There’s not a lot of new SFH construction in Santa Clara County (excluding Gilroy/Morgan Hill) so yes, it is a little different.
San Jose, go away.
Do not come back some other day.
“Families” concerned about “good schools” are not paying a mil and a half. Don’t you think they send private? Come on. And if the local economy is “strong”, are there plenty of jobs that pay $1/2 MIL plus? Don’t be a ‘tard.
Ok, I will stop posting. I guess that differing points of view are not desired here.
Sorry, I can’t resist, one final rejoinder. The people at the open house were almost all mom + dad+ one or two 3 to 8 year olds. Sounds like a family to me. Also, the houses in Saratoga that are not in Cupertino or Saratoga schools are languishing on the market for 30-45 days and selling for $200k less than a comparable place in Cupertino or Saratoga schools. So it seems that people are paying for the schools, and in my circle of friends this is the case.
ok, good luck all in the quest to have home prices fall by 100%.
Only retards will pay 1.5M to buy in a good school district in Cupertino/Saratoga. These soon to be F*borrowers have no realization on the value of money and are influenced by the status which comes with the price. Mostly in Hi-tech right now I see a lot of first generation immigrants from China/India flocking to these area. The whole premise that kids will excel academically ONLY if they go to schools in Cupertino/Saratoga is preposterous.