The Housing Bubble

The Record.net reports from California. “After a year and a half of painful ‘adjustment’ in the housing market, slowing sales and sliding sales prices after four boom years, there’s still more to come, the chief economist of the state Realtors group told Central Valley agents and brokers Friday.”

“State sales of existing houses the first five months of this year are down 18.7 percent from the same period last year, said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors.”

“‘And it’s getting worse,’ she added. ‘So this market, unfortunately, has not bottomed out yet. We’re moving toward it, but it’s not there yet.’”

“This year’s attendance of about 100 Valley agents and brokers looked to be about half the usual attendance at the annual event.”

“Appleton-Young said the Central Valley market peaked in the boom years of 2002-05 in August 2005. Since that August 2005 peak in the Valley, she said, the median sales price has slid by 8.8 percent to $331,580. It’s down 6.7 percent just the first five months of this year, compared with a year ago, she said.”

“‘It’s not a falling off a cliff, but it’s certainly a squeeze down,’ she said.”

“Foreclosures from buyers who got in over their heads continue to affect the market, pushing up the number of homes for sale, she sad. That run of foreclosures still has a year and a half to two years to go, Appleton-Young said.”

“At the current sales pace, it would take nearly 11 months to sell all the Valley homes on the market right now, she said.”

“Turlock real-estate agent Richard Salinas, said he sees a housing market comeback perhaps by next spring, even with many would-be buyers sitting back and waiting to see whether prices drop more.”

“‘The fish definitely are not jumping into the boat any more,’ he said.”

The Orange County Register. “Orange County home prices are on track to tie the peak levels set last June, although sales continue to be down by almost 30%, new data that include the first three weeks of the month show.”

“It bears noting, however, that the median price is based the recorded sales price for closed escrows, but doesn’t reflect seller concessions that are now commonplace in home sales.”

“One thing that’s not known is whether the degree of seller concessions is greater today than it was a year ago, a time when concessions already had become commonplace amid slow sales and rising inventories.”

“James Joseph is a 26-year veteran in the business. We asked him recently to tell us how he sees the housing market and its future.”

“Us: Is the market flat, or down. And if it’s down, how far down is it? Jim: There really are two markets. First the price market and secondly the sales market.”

“The price market as reported is flat with the median property selling at about the same price as last year. If a buyer looks around however he/she will notice that there are a lot of homes listed at prices lower than what has sold. I would bet that a buyer today can get a better price on the same home today than he/she could have last year. Prices already are lower and more reasonable than last year.’”

The Gilroy Dispatch. “South County homeowners, many of them first-time buyers, are losing millions of dollars in equity. Mid-range markets in parts of the county, especially San Jose, continue to soften.”

“As a result, nearly 18,000 property owners, three times more than last year, are paying lower property taxes and getting a tax break because the value of their land decreased, dropping by a combined $4.9 billion.”

“This year, in Gilroy, 698 properties lost a combined $42.9 million in value, according to the assessor’s office. In Morgan Hill, 161 properties lost more than $9.1 million in value. Last year, 146 Gilroy properties lost $28.5 million in value and 38 Morgan Hill properties lost $3.6 million.”

“Lending practices that allowed thousands of Silicon Valley residents to buy homes with little or no money down drove prices up after the dot-com crash in 2001. Now the housing market is slumping and many of those buyers have no equity as their payments go up.”

The Press Democrat. “Santa Rosa officials Friday killed a widely touted deal with a private developer to build the city’s first downtown high-rise.”

“The project was to include a 545-space, city-owned parking garage, 183 condominiums, 208 parking spaces for the condo residents and 15,000 square feet of ground-floor retail space.”

“The high-rise was seen as a cornerstone of city efforts to turn around its struggling downtown by creating a residential market of consumers who could bolster the business of retailers and generate a night life after work hours.”

“Santa Rosa Mayor Bob Blanchard said Friday he was disappointed by the failure to move forward but said, ‘I do not see it as a blow.’”

“‘If we hadn’t gotten hit with a housing slowdown and the increases in steel and concrete prices, that project would be halfway up by now,’ he said.”

The Mercury News. “The house in Silver Creek that real estate agent Nancy Vanegas will soon put up for sale has five bedrooms, views of the foothills, and is part of a growing category in the housing market: homes that fail to sell at foreclosure auctions and are repossessed by lenders.”

“Known in the banking industry as REOs, for ‘real estate owned,’ once rare in Silicon Valley, may soon contribute to lower home prices in some neighborhoods.”

“In May, $2.8 billion worth of California real estate went up for sale in foreclosure auctions, according to a company that sells foreclosure information. Of that amount, about $2.6 billion worth failed to find buyers, and so became bank-owned. The figures represent the total value of the outstanding loans that went up for auction.”

“In January, $1.49 billion worth of property was auctioned statewide, and $1.32 billion went back to banks. January is typically a busy month because trustees usually refrain from foreclosing during the December holidays.”

“Vanegas, who specializes in REO transactions, had three such listings last year. Currently she has 27, ranging from condos to the Silver Creek home, where a neighboring home sold for $1.3 million last fall.”

“An estimated 8 percent of homes for sale, or about 450 houses and condos, in Santa Clara County as of June 30 were ‘distressed’ in some way’ either being sold in a ’short sale,’ or in foreclosure or as REOs, according to a new report from Movoto, a brokerage based in Redwood City. Movoto gathered the data by scouring the agent remarks that accompany homes on the MLS.”

“There probably are not enough bank-owned homes on the market in Santa Clara County now to drive down prices single-handedly, especially as the trustees that own them are not deeply discounting. But that could change as the market does, said Laura Pephens, a director of the California Mortgage Bankers Association.”

“‘All mortgage servicers are buried in this issue right now,’ she said. Trustees, the entities that have assumed ownership of the properties, be they the original lender or a mortgage servicing company, are still trying to get a handle on the increased number of REO properties they are managing, and on how much leeway they have to discount home prices without encountering resistance from investors in the mortgage-backed securities.”

“‘In this market right now, I hope trustees are being more flexible in terms of the purchase price offers,’ she said.”