Everything Is Upside Down In Florida
The Miami Herald reports from Florida. “Investor Tony Barquin shifted amid the crowd in the stuffy auction room at the Miami-Dade County Clerk’s office Thursday, pondering which among scores of homes in foreclosure he might bid to buy. As more and more homeowners can’t pay their mortgages, the number of properties hitting the auction block has skyrocketed. So Barquin’s business should be booming.”
“But Barquin said fewer are worth buying. He left the auction empty-handed. ‘Everything is upside down here,’ he complained, describing homes worth less than the debt on them. ‘In a month, there might be only a few really good deals.’”
“The amount of foreclosed real estate owned by Florida-based banks and thrifts has nearly tripled since the fall of last year, when foreclosure rates began their upward trek, to $94 million as of March 31, from $34 million Sept. 30, according to the most recent Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data. (These data do not include giants like Bank of America, which have large operations here but are based elsewhere.)”
“At Thursday’s auction, of roughly 70 properties offered for sale, investors bought only two. A handful were scratched. The rest were bought back by lawyers for various lenders.”
“Even seemingly great deals were snubbed. Example: a two-bedroom condo on Claughton Island Drive in Miami bought last June for $690,000. The outstanding balance on the loan was $588,062, but the lender was willing to let the property go for $373,900.”
“‘What is happening now is not the aberration,’ said Stuart Gitlitz, a Miami lawyer who represents lenders in foreclosure proceedings. ‘What happened in the last couple years was the aberration,’ he said.”
“‘What is happening is that values are not there and investors are being more cautious,’ he said.”
“Foreclosure investors’ business depends on their ability to rehab and sell homes quickly, so they can’t hold out for a market rebound. That’s perhaps why even some deeply discounted properties for sale Thursday did not garner bids.”
“One Miami Beach condo was slashed by nearly $400,000. ‘Even at that price nobody was interested,’ said Barquin, ‘because that’s not what it’s worth on the market.’”
The Times Picayune from Florida. “Ivan was Pensacola’s epochal storm, that city’s version of Katrina. For locals, the hangover has lasted longer. They continue to struggle with staggering insurance premiums, a depressed real estate market and a deep-seated anxiety about living in hurricane alley.”
“Real estate prices rose in Pensacola immediately after Ivan, as buyers scrimmaged for the limited inventory of undamaged housing. Now the market is groaning under the weight of 7,000 houses for sale, about double what was available in June 2002.”
“Doug Gooch, president of the Pensacola Association of Realtors, said 508 houses and condominiums moved last month, at an average price of $222,000. That compares with 724 houses sold in June 2004, three months before Ivan hit, at an average price of $193,000. Prices have fallen since their post-Ivan highs, when the average sale was $290,000.”
The Palm Beach Post. “John Devaney, the deep-pocketed, high-flying trader who’s lead financier for the $510 million purchase of Briny Breezes, is facing a financial squeeze after a series of bad bets on the subprime mortgage market. Some wonder whether Briny Breezes’ buyers will have to look elsewhere for financing.”
“Devaney’s company, Key Biscayne-based United Capital Markets Holdings, acknowledged this week that it has suffered ’significant losses’ on its risky subprime mortgage trades. The company has taken the unusual step of not allowing investors to cash out of four of its hedge funds.”
“‘There’s gonna be a concern, especially because it implies liquidity problems,’ said Ken Thomas, a Miami banking analyst.”
“United Capital’s losses follow the near-collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds that also trade arcane mortgage securities. ‘Bear Stearns and others have deep-pocketed parents,’ Thomas said. ‘Who’s going to bail out United Capital?’”
The News Press. “When all else fails, trust in St. Joseph. That’s the advice of Robin Milburn, a real estate agent who recently sold a house on Lemon Street on Pine Island for $390,000 after 688 days.”
“‘At one point I tried to give it away,’ Milburn said with a chuckle, remembering the long, involved process that preceded the happy ending. She cut the price twice before selling the house. ‘I even was desperate enough to bury a statue of St. Joseph in the yard,’ she said.”
“Lee County has seen the average numbers of days on market soar as the bottom fell out of the real estate market. In May 2006 the average number of days on market for homes listed by real estate agents was 75, that number had risen to 121 by May 2007.”
“Days on market is a good indication of how a market’s doing, said Michael Timmerman, the Naples-based managing director for Florida at Hanley Wood. But he cautioned you have to be careful in interpreting the data.”
“‘Statistically,’ he said, ‘it could go down because a lot of people take their place off the market, and then it goes back up again.’”
“It’s still not always easy to move even an attractive dwelling, said Art Boesch, (an) agent trying to sell a house in The Vines in Estero for $439,000. It’s been on the market for more than 800 days.”
“‘Well, the news has not been very kind to us and a lot of people are just waiting for things to go lower,’ he said. ‘It’s priced right, a nice house, it just doesn’t have the right view. Snowbirds come down and they want a beach view or a golf course view.’”
“Boesch is optimistic long term, however, noting most sellers in The Vines aren’t succumbing to low-ball offers. ‘They’re offering 30-40 percent off and they’re saying, ‘Absolutely not. I won’t sell at that price.’”
“Besides, he said, construction prices are far higher than they were a few years ago and as inventory of homes is sold off, prices have nowhere to go but up.”
“Sometimes, however, a house’s price is simply too high for the market. Hector Saitta of Century 21 Novelli has the listing for a three-bedroom, two-bath house in Cape Coral with an asking price of $480,000. It’s been on the market 812 days, at least in part, he said, because the price is a little high.”
“‘I’ve spoken many times to the owner to reduce the price. I don’t show it too many times: a few times, a few calls,’ Saitta said.”
‘The Florida Department of Law Enforcement is still reviewing a batch of criminal complaints filed against Ideal Homes that it received about a month and a half ago. The last year has been unprecedented in terms of home builders going belly-up in Southwest Florida and leaving homeowners with mounds of debt, liens and unfinished homes.’
‘An area of Port Richey encompassing zip code 34668 has the highest number of people losing their homes to foreclosure in the Bay area. West Pasco’s foreclosure filings in the first half of this year are more than double the number of filings in the same area for the first half of last year. ‘Their mortgages and taxes are going up 200, 300, 400 dollars,’ Cahill said. ‘Nothing else has changed, but their taxes and insurance have gone up and they’re just not making 300 or 400 dollars more a month. And eventually you can’t hold on any more.’
‘Nothing else has changed, but their taxes and insurance have gone up and they’re just not making 300 or 400 dollars more a month. And eventually you can’t hold on any more.’
WHAT???? Nothing else has changed? How about the fact that prices were going up allowing refis and sales to “late to the party” speculators. Now prices are crashing, so no refi and no greator fools to sell to. It isn’t the extra $400 a month!!!! It is the fact that they bought at the top of the bubble, which is now popping.
You’re right. Besides, here in Florida property taxes on homesteaded properties can only go up 3% per year. So, these $400 increases are NOT happening to J6P homeowner; they’re only happening to those who don’t qualify for homesteaded exemptions (investors or Snowbirds). Since I highly doubt that the Snowbirds are the ones losing their homes due to tax increases, that leaves only one class of buyer who are losing their homes due to $400 monthly increases.
It is not just investors. I have worked very hard for 33 years as a teacher and wanted to pay my house off before I retired. I finally paid my house off and am ready to retire but after talking to FRS my salary will not be enough to pay insurance and pay taxes on the house I paid off. I will have to sell because I still cannot afford to pay the taxes and insurance on a retirement salary. That is sad when we work all of our lives and our retirement salary will not let us live on it even with no bills except for taxes, insurance, food, and electricity.
If nothing else has changed, then those people could have sold their homes instead of going into foreclosure. Obviously something has changed.
I was watching TV friday night, falling to sleep, and I saw a promo for what I think was 20/20, it had Martin Sherer? interviewing some lady with thousands of highrise condo’s (Miami?) in the background. I think it will be on next week.
Cahill said. ‘Nothing else has changed, but their taxes and insurance have gone up and they’re just not making 300 or 400 dollars more a month.
Donna Cahill - You forgot to add in that the real problem was that RE in the Tampa Bay area has shot up much higher than the majority of people can afford based upon incomes in the area. When prices shoot up, so do taxes and insurance. Add together the cost of a house that has doubled in the past couple of years, taxes that have gone up due to higher home prices and rising insurance costs due to past hurricane damage and rising home prices and you have the perfect storm for a depressed RE market. Lower the prices of homes back to pre 2003 levels and taxes will drop. If the consumer boycotts and stops buying policies from Allstate and State Farm and others for both home and auto, prices will drop. The consumer is sending the message and you had better listen!
“It’s been on the market 812 days, at least in part, he said, because the price is a little high.”
812 days? Price is a little high? 812 days ago we were still in the boom; if the seller has not dropped the price by at least 20%, they are living in a dream world.
That might be a record!
And this one:
“Even seemingly great deals were snubbed. Example: a two-bedroom condo on Claughton Island Drive in Miami bought last June for $690,000. The outstanding balance on the loan was $588,062, but the lender was willing to let the property go for $373,900.”
So, basically, this person paid 2X the market price for this condo? I expect that more and more people are going to realize that this has happened to them as well; tons of overpriced condos were sold in the last 4-5 years. Still, losing 300K in a single transaction has to sting a bit, no?
This is an article that should be distributed to every homeowner in Florida that has a home on the market. 99% of them still think they should get TOP dollar for their homes…they still have the mentality of “but my home was worth this before..” The reality is YOUR HOME IS WORTH WHAT THE MARKET WILL PAY…. PERIOD…that is why there is a 7 year inventory in South Florida…I have seen people list their homes for $1 million dollars saying hey I live in a million dollar home…in your mind you do! But the sad reality is that it is worth far less..homes will continue to stay on the market until more and more of them come to the sad reality of 1)taking the home off the market or 2)reducing the price as the comparables and appraisals make them..
This is an article that should be distributed to every homeowner in Florida that has a home on the market. 99% of them still think they should get TOP dollar for their homes…they still have the mentality of “but my home was worth this before..”
I live in the Tampa Bay area and the 99% is incorrect, it should be 99.9%. The main reason houses are not selling is due to people not lowering their prices. Why are they not lowering their prices? It’s because the vast majority of the RE purchases were done at 100% financing mostly by speculators, flippers and subprime buyers. I have looked at several properties and found this to be the case. However, there are several sellers who are still in the mindset that this is 2005 and they refuse to lower their price. Those properties are still on the market. Homes are only worth what a person is willing to pay and in the Tampa Bay market, the homes are still overvalued by 23.2% per the PMI risk index.
Wow this is madness! Do you suppose many others will just walk away when they find out they paid 2x too much, even if their mortgage was a fixed 30 year? I know one who walked away and bought a smaller house for a fraction the price and took another loan before forclosing the big house. The bank didnt know he was gonna foreclose.
Why doesnt the government just change the laws regarding walking away from a house during the downturn? Imagine what would happen if people just couldnt walk away? Make people responsible for buying something they couldnt afford.
HELOC - Don’t call it a loan
My wife and I were discussing that today. Suppose an otherwise honest couple bought a $600k home in 2005 with 100% financing and a 30% fixed loan. Then, by 2008 that same home is worth $300k. What should they do?
This is what I would tell them to do: Use all your non-retirment assets as a down-payment on a second $300k home with a 30-year fixed (basically the same home they bought in 2005). Then mail in the keys on the original home, go into bankruptcy, and let your attorney include the original home in the bankruptcy proceedings.
Since all their assets would be tied up in new house (not subject to bankruptcy), they wouldn’t lose any assets. Besides, it would also get them out of any credit card debt that they may have run up while furnishing the new house.
Isn’t bankruptcy worth saving $300K? I think that there will be many FB’s doing this. Why wouldn’t they?
I have a feeling that we’re going to see a whole new wave of foreclosures that are NOT associated with subprime loans, teaser rates, or buyers over their heads. Instead these will be people who CAN afford their homes, but choose foreclosure as an option to get out their massively devalued homes.
Then mail in the keys on the original home, go into bankruptcy, and let your attorney include the original home in the bankruptcy proceedings.
Why would they need to file bankruptcy? Wouldn’t the bank just take the house back and dun them for the remainder? If they go into bankruptcy, wouldn’t they be forced to work out a payment plan with the bank based on their income?
They don’t need to file for bankruptcy. However, bankruptcy would protect them from (1) a judgement for the difference between the ulimate selling price and the loan amount, and (2) the IRS’s debt forgiveness penalty.
I guess the decision on wether to go into bankruptcy would depend on the FB’s income situation, their assets and how far they are f*cked by their moronic home purchase.
Isn’t it amazing how stupid people were buying these overpriced homes with 120% financing and variable rates, but how smart they get when it comes time to file bankruptcy.
Ben needs to write an article on that. Very good point I raised. I know a friend who did just that. He spent near $200k for an Orlando condo and even though he could afford the fixed 30 year mortgage, he chose to walk away and relocate to Ohio where houses are much cheaper. He knew he wouldn’t get anywhere near what he paid and would rather foreclose than sell for a big loss.
Is it true you owe the IRS taxes when the bank resells for a loss? This is what I heard.
“Is it true you owe the IRS taxes when the bank resells for a loss? This is what I heard.”
Yes — on the amount “forgiven” (walked on). That could change if Congress interferes — I hope they stay out of it.
Chip,
Several posters have made the same suggestion, but I just can’t see Congress giving more tax breaks when revenues will be plummeting.
Gatorfan, what you’re suggesting is stealing. So what if their house has depreciated in value? They bought it, and they’re responsible for paying what they owe. Buying another house, declaring bankruptcy, and turning in the keys to the original is monumental fraud. The fact that it leaves SOMEONE is out hundreds of thousands of dollars doesn’t even seem to have occurred to you. You claim this is what you would recommend? Did you attend the Caligula School of Ethics?
This kind of grifter behavior is nauseating; I’ve know people like this: they are crooks and bums, and always will be–forever fudging, conning, and dodging. Untrustworthy, with no concept of honor, they are the losers who gave us the housing bubble in the first place.
Although I certainly don’t condone the behavior, Gatorfan’s detailing exactly what I expect a *lot* of people will do.
Even if they can make the payments, they’re looking at 20+ years of working their asses off and/or sacrificing a real life just to get back to even.
This is what I would tell them to do: Use all your non-retirment assets as a down-payment on a second $300k home with a 30-year fixed (basically the same home they bought in 2005). Then mail in the keys on the original home, go into bankruptcy, and let your attorney include the original home in the bankruptcy proceedings.
The courts take a dim view on this typ of activity and this is exactly what they look for in a person hiding their assets. In this case, the person would probally lose everything, even in Florida!
We had a neighbor do that. Their credit was bad, so they bought another house in their parents’ name and lived in the one to be foreclosed on for almost another year, while they remodeled the new one.
So this is a new twist in this housing mess - now the fiscally irresponsible are not satisfied ruining themselves, now they are taking their parents with them into the abyss of financial ruin.
Got 10% down?
Who lost?
The “buyers” of these places are usually mortgaged at 100%.
The lender is losing, but he will pass those loses on to “investors” in CDO’s, so it’s not the fool buyer of the house.
It’s the pension funds that bought the CDO’s. It’s us.
“It’s the pension funds that bought the CDO’s. It’s us.”
Which is why I hate every stupid greedy ba$tard who bought more house than he could afford.
I don’t care if they were ‘lied’ to by the mortgage broker, the real estate agent, their momma.
There is a reason stupid people don’t deserve to run their own lives - when they f’ up, they take everyone down with them.
Thanks a$$holes.
Unfortunately, you are talking about the majority of American’s today. Those who didn’t buy beyond their means are still living beyond their means.
The “wake up” is going to extend far beyond the housing market. Losing your home is just the beginning.
While I think there are many fools out there, I don’t think the majority of Americans are living on a pile of debt.
Actually all of us are–current accounts deficit plus government deficits.
And if we looked at our debts according to GAAP, the unfunded liabilities would create a figure to boggle the mind. Well, actually, that was before the war. I imagine it’s worse now.
I’m talking about personally in debt. There’s not much I can do personally about the government spending like drunken sailors. GAAP rules are very murky and the government is not obligated to follow GAAP. In the end, all social programs are doomed to failure - they are all ponzi schemes pushing debt on the future generations. Social Security and Medicare will collapse when the baby boomers retire. There’s nothing anybody can do about it. There are more baby boomers than there are workers and they will live to be older than past generations. Europe and Japan are facing the same crisis. You cannot have the majority of people start working at 22, retire at 60, then live until 85.
The people to hate are Greenspan, the upper management of the big Wall Street firms, and the upper management at the home builders. Greenspan makes money as a speaker telling listeners about a coming recession (he made worse).
The upper management boys have sold out of their stocks and will get away free from the collapse of the brokerage and biulders. See insider transactions.
We are witnessing the greaest transfer of wealth from middle class to the top 1% of the population. The holders of the junk bonds and arms are pensions and retired people in the middle class. The majority slated to loose their homes are the middle class and poor.
This is part of a cycle but it makes one understand why the US flirted with communism in the last depression. The capitalist captians seem to always ruin a good thing instead of providing honest leadership for our nation during booms.
Unfortunately, the leadership from the left isn’t much better.
If you’re a UK investor, the performance of the dollar combined with the dive in condo prices must make FL start to look pretty tempting.
The pound is up 15-20% over the last 3-4 years. RE prices are coming down 30-? %. I wonder if there will be significant support from our overseas friends.
I was thinking that myself, but as I understand it from news reports, we’ve been making it very difficult for even tourists to come into the country under lawful means. Unlawful, piece o’ cake.
When the U.K. housing bust finally gets going these “investors” may have other issues that are more pressing than looking for the next hot deal in FL.
“When the U.K. housing bust finally gets going these “investors” may have other issues that are more pressing than looking for the next hot deal in FL.
e”
The will have double the problems if they buy FL realestate once they convert their pounds to dollars and watch not only the realestate continue to tank but the dollar will be tanking also.
Big losses on conversion back to native currency.
The british owner of my townhome paid 460k a year ago selling price is definitely under 400, he had to put the place into a corporate name to avoid us gov’t holding on to some of the rental income. I’m probably moving but if i decide to stay he has already agreed to lower the rent House is cheaper, pound is stronger not a good combo for my british owner/investor.
http://tinyurl.com/2uozgx
“”The global pie of international travel is steadily increasing, while the U.S. share has been slowly decreasing,” said Roger Dow, president and CEO of the Travel Industry Association.”
“Visits from the six countries that provide the most tourists — Britain, Japan, Germany, France, South Korea and Australia — have dropped 15 percent since 2000 while travel from those six to other countries was up a robust 39 percent. There were 4.2 million arrivals from Britain, last year, down 11 percent from 2000, and 3.7 million visits from Japan, down 27 percent.”
“”It’s a situation that really is disastrous when you take into account the overall global trends in international travel, and the fact that the U.S. currency makes travel to the country so attractive,” said Adam Sacks, managing director for tourism economics at Oxford Economics. The weakening of the dollar against the euro and other currencies makes the money of foreign tourists go further.”
“”Unfortunately the first three hours” — trying to get through customs — “is creating a poor impression and becoming a great barrier to coming,” Freeman said. European papers are “filled with horror stories about why you don’t want to come to the U.S.”"
While the hassles of entering the U.S. are driving away tourists, they weren’t driving away oversees investors when RE was booming. Those oversees investors are now going elsewhere, not because of the U.S. entry hassles, but in search of better returns elsewhere. Of course prices will collapse “elsewhere” too, just later.
Thanks for the report, Greg. That’s what I was talking about. Really messes with my head, we roll out the red carpet for illegals all over the place. But when it comes to legitimate visitors, we make their entry to the country the equivalent of a space alien probing.
It’s easier to get into the UK, and they’ve had real terrorism for years.
Why are we such incompetant nitwits?!
I don’t think the system of entry into the UK is the problem, very professional and seemingly appropriate levels of security at Gatwick and Heathrow in my travels there in 2000 through early 2005. Security certainly wasn’t lax, but also none of the idiotic, seemingly unnecessary measures so common in the U.S.
With many/most of the incidents in the UK, “home grown”, I don’t think more entry restrictions would have much impact other than to unnecessarily inconvenience travelers.
One of the beauties of traveling internationally from the U.S., at least until the fall of the dollar made it increasingly expensive, was that only half of your journey was disrupted by extra, mostly unnecessary security measures. Gotta keep the masses frightened and compliant.
There are a whole lot of UK investors who are FBs due to buying in the SW-of-Disney area during the boom — perhaps they can sell to their countrymen.
I think you’ve made the right point, here, Chip. I have a feeling many UK investors already “invested” at or close to the top.
The UK RE market will soon resemble a flaming marshmallow.
From what I’ve read (recent issue of The Economist) a high percentage (higher than the U.S.) of U.K. mortgagees have ARMs, not fixed-rate loans. I wonder what will happen, now that global interest rates are rising …..
You are so right. We were at Disney World last July and the number of Brits astounded me. We talked to many of them who bought property around Disney and figured they’d rent it out to their countrymen when they weren’t using it. Trouble is the rent would never cover the mortgage on the overpriced properties.
‘Everything is upside down here,’ he complained, describing homes worth less than the debt on them.
Yep, That’s the way it works, Tony. The “good deals” are not here yet. Time will cure that.
“John Devaney, the deep-pocketed, high-flying trader who’s lead financier for the $510 million purchase of Briny Breezes, is facing a financial squeeze after a series of bad bets on the subprime mortgage market. Some wonder whether Briny Breezes’ buyers will have to look elsewhere for financing.”
‘Ol High flying John, may become a “tree top” flyer before it’s all over with!
wonder how much the price changes from 05 to foreclosure- REO to auction then bought back ?
wow, that’s a big hit
“Boesch is optimistic long term, however, noting most sellers in The Vines aren’t succumbing to low-ball offers. ‘They’re offering 30-40 percent off and they’re saying, ‘Absolutely not. I won’t sell at that price.’”
“Besides, he said, construction prices are far higher than they were a few years ago and as inventory of homes is sold off, prices have nowhere to go but up.”
Hang in there Art. ‘Absolutely’ do not give in to the temptation to lower your price.
“Besides, he said, construction prices are far higher than they were a few years ago and as inventory of homes is sold off, prices have nowhere to go but up.”
False and False. Lumber and labor are much lower. Prices go down the most when inventory finally starts shrinking, because sellers have finally capitulated.
Good point, lumber and labor is way down, now there are many components to the construction, but I don’t believe construction prices are far higher either Shaun.
Keep it on the market 10-15 years and you’ll get your asking price. That’s pretty much guaranteed.
Why does St Joe want to shaft new FB’s?
Good point. These FB’s are so egocentric, they think divine intervention will save them and screw someone else.
Check out this HUD repo in Zephyrhills, Florida. It is a PDF file, but if you scroll all the way to the last few pages, the photographs of the condition of the property are incredible. Not only are the appliances gone, but so are the floor coverings, bathtub and yes, the kitchen sink. Talk about trashing a house!!! I’d give them $10,000 for it. Maybe.
http://hud1.towerauction.net/e9/document/093572322_13_20070626_2.pdf
Looks like someone started to flip it, then quit after the demo stage.
They’re lucking there’s any plumbing left at all. Up here houses were stripped of all plumbing, vinyl siding, bathroom & kitchen fixtures and even carpeting. Nothing left but a shell.
looks like the middle of a remodel .. a partition wall is missing.. and sheetrock is cleanly stripped in the bath but the copper is still there. Lot size is “less than one quarter” whatever that means.. gonna need some cash and cheap labor on this one.
I bid $10,500!
I didn’t think of the remodelling aspect that you and Darrell mention. You’re right, maybe someone got stuck in the middle of trying to flip and ran out of $$. BTW, lot size less than one quarter means less than a quarter of an acre.
They have it listed as a stucco over frame, but I think they got that wrong, it looks like stucco over block to me. Aside from the fact that the rehab need to be completed, the main problem is actually the plumbing. Report says there appears to be a leak in the system. That’s a Floridian’s worst nightmare (next to hurricanes). Some of these old block homes have a slab over the pipes. Then you have to bust up the concrete to get to the problem. Up until I saw that, I was actually considering driving to see what the neighborhood was like and if it check out, putting in a land value bid.
What they usually do is to re-plump the thing overhead using PEC or something.
Roidy
hmm.. a peaceful neighborhood and i’d be seriously thinking about something like this one.. house next door has what looks like new paint.
i dunno why that chain link fence is set back so far from the sidewalk. hmm.. Is there no sidewalk? Is that street asphalt in the pic foreground?
Probably is asphalt, joey. I haven’t been up to Zephyrhills in a while, it is sort of a funky little town. Mix of old Florida block and frame house neighborhoods, mobile homes, farms and more recently, the obligatory bubble “lugzhurry” golf course communities taking up acres of former farmland and orange groves. Used to have lots of retirees living on the cheap. Main employer is Nestle-Waters, a French corporation, because of the underground springs. Buy a bottle of Perrier and chances are, the water is from Zephyrhills. And it does have rolling hillside up there. And, in fact, very nice breezes, which is why it is named that way. It was originally settled because of the hills and breezes, which kept away a lot of mosquitoes that are more prevalent in other parts of Florida.
You have to be careful of some of the older neighborhoods, though. Some are OK and are modest and quiet and shady. Some have low-life crime problems (meth). There’s been a recent spate of gang types preying on retirees in mobile home communities.
gonna need some cash and cheap labor on this one.
…or a 5 gal can of gasoline
This just happened in Long Beach this week. First an arson fire, a man is seen running on fire from the burning house. The next day, he checks into an emergency room, and says he has “work related injuries.” He dies the next morning, and his wife says he was the arsonist.
http://www.presstelegram.com/search/ci_6309162
The house, 600 sq ft, was undergoing renovations.
wtf.. arsonist for hire? If not they should easily find a connection between this guy and that house.
funny thing about flamable liquids.. the liquid cannot burn.. only the vapor burns since an oxygen mixture is needed. Gasoline fumes are heavy and quickly spread out.
“Fire investigators discovered a room full of milk jugs filled with gasoline, said Capt. Mike Duree.”
He probably coulda lit that thing from the middle of the street.
I think it needs a visit from the boys in New Jersey..the insurance is probably worth more than the house..a little flame job will take care of it..LOL
I think more money was spent on putting that report together than that s***hole is worth!
Now that’s what I call a “handyman special”.
Man, the horse trader in me said, “get the cash” the second that Briny Breezes news came out. I would have given back 25-30% for cash right then. Cripes, it’s a 10-20 bagger for each of these owners, isn’t it? Bet few or none of them did though, greedy pigs.
and this one:
“‘I’ve spoken many times to the owner to reduce the price. I don’t show it too many times: a few times, a few calls,’
I just looked a house here like that. 180 days on the market, 8 (that’s right,
price reductions (still overpriced though) and the sellers are now burnt toast. I liked it. It started at 375 (ludicrous) and is now at 299. I’m sending in an offer for 249 which is all I think it’s worth. I’m sure the seller (who has had no offers or so I’m told) will scream when they see this one.
They’ll probably counter at $298k, and in the end after another year or so either let it go to foreclosure or end up selling it for $199k.
Does anyone know the fate of Briny Breezes? I have an acquaintance who knows someone who lives there and insists that they (all the mobil home owners) are going to get all this money. Trump wants it? For millions? Because it is unincorporated?
I told him not to spend the money until it is in the bank.
The moron should sell his precious trailer for $500K and walk away with the cash.
but NOOOOO he wants the full million, and will die BROKE IN HIS TRAILER…….
this schmuck will be eating Alpo the rest of his stupid life
Indeed, Barquin said 10 days ago he bought a condo in Southwest Miami-Dade for $210,000. He thinks it’s worth about $250,000 on the market..
Ok and this guy calls himself a real estate investor..he paid for this property without even seeing the condition..so maybe he has to put $5K to bring it up to par(carpet,paint,appliances, misc). $210 + $5 now we are at $215. lets say he put it on the market to pay the 3% commission.. $215 + $7,500 (commission for realtor 3% lets assume he has a real estate license and can list it himself) now we are at $222,500. Now based on how horrible the CONDO market is in South Florida.. lets say he has to hold onto it for 1 year(considering a 4 year condo inventory in South Florida right now). Article did not say condo size. If it is a 2/2 you will be holding onto it for eternity in South Florida! Probably $300 X12=$3,600 maint. now we are at $226,100. now add on taxes and insurance. $4,200 + $3000. Now at $233,300. He thinks its worth $250,000. Probably more like $235-$240. So all that for a profit of $2-7K MAYBE? NOT A VERY SMART “REAL ESTATE” INVESTOR!
I have a friend who sells real estate and she has always for 30 years told sellers just how it is price wise. She lost quite a few listings because of it, but they always sold within a couple thousand of what she told them, sometimes after many years of being on the market. Realtors don’t make any money if a house doesn’t sell, so believe me it’s the sellers who mostly set these high prices. Granted once in a while you’ll get an inexperienced realtor set a price high, but if they’ve been doing it for awhile they know the actual market. Regardless of what the NAR tells you.
Hmm, I sold a house in Oldsmar, Fl last year. I had to switch RE’s since the 1st one wanted me to recarpet, paint, and then price it too high. I priced low, didn’t do anything except clean the thing up, gave the sellers the washing machine, dryer, refrigerator. I did reasonably well on the price, and it sold within 3 weeks. Everyone else in the neighborhood was 5 - 10% higher on price and some never did sell. I’d still be there “sittin’ screwed” if I had listened to the 1st agent.
ROTFLMAO
Roidy
That’s cool, Roidy. I didn’t fix up my place when I sold in 2005. Just tidied up and sold as-is, like you. Did you stay in Fla?
In ‘05 anything in FL would sell immediately. I still marvel at our realtor who, after hearing us tell her what we thought would be an appropriate selling price, said “That’s not high enough.” So we bumped it up another 5%. It took a month to sell, and the final price was what we had first proposed.
palmetto,
No, I loved Florida, but my job took me to N. Louisiana. The place I really miss is Tallahassee. I went to school at FSU. N Fla was really, really nice. Still is. Building boom didn’t over run the place.
Roidy
How can the general public buy in to the belief that we should already be looking for a bottom in the housing downturn? I’ve been hearing and reading this about ten times a day, everyday, for the past few months. The reason it bothers me is that my wife also hears it and starts in on me with the “c’mon, how long are we going to wait?” question. I’ve explained this is just the beginning of the correction and we have at least a few years before it’s safe to go back in the water.
My prediction is that 2007 price cuts will pale in comparison to what we see in 2008. In the meantime, we’ll continue to sit on the sidelines and save.
When you see maybe 6 months of sales constantly rising (sales #’s not prices), maybe we have hit bottom. Don’t look yet, it’s going to be quite awhile.
Quite a while - well what does that mean? 1 year? 2 years? I know that subprime was not contained. I know that sales tax revenue is dropping. I wonder who is going to pay the taxes on all of these bank owned properties. How many towns and cities will have to layoff people due to less taxes coming in. After foreclosure how many people will not be able to buy for a long long time? This is starting to look very ugly. In my book quite a while is 5-7 years. I hope I am wrong as I want my own house to appreicate, but my gut tells me that it is indeed different this time.
Listen to your gut!
The psycological ploy of calling a bottom is working on her. Don’t let it. Simply do the math of rent vs. own for her. If it is ceaper to own, buy. If it is cheaper to rent, then rent.
You’ll always pay somewhat of a premium for owning versus renting. Maybe 10-20%, but certainly not 100% like right now. Since rent will not increase (more people leaving than coming and a glut of condos about to hit the market) prices will drop another 30 - 40% in South Florida. Might take another year, might take another 5 years. We will get there sooner or later.
(South) Florida is a very risky place to own property since taxes and insurance go up at will. It could easily add several hundred $$ a month within a year. I rather let my landlord worry about such things
If there is always a premium of owning vs. renting, then no one would ever buy property with the intention of renting it out.
Okay, okay. If there is a belief that rents will go up soon, maybe they’d be willing to be cash flow negative. If interest rates are high and prices low, then there is the prospect for refi to lower rates and/or appreciation to make back the cashflow negative.
But, we’re not in those conditions. With the huge amount of housing added in the last few years, rents are NOT going to go up. Interest rates are low, only going to go up. Prices are high, only to go down.
There is NO reason to pay more for a house than it can rent for in today’s economy.
If you have a fixed mortgage, the principal and interest will fail to go up with inflation (taxes & insurance will). Eventually rents do, so over a sufficiently long time owning is superior.
So even if you buy to rent, there can be value in the long run if the numbers aren’t exactly comparable at the beginning. But they need to be close.
DrChaos,
If you’re spending more to buy then rent to cover the future when rents will be higher, then you’re messin’ up.
Let’s say rent is $1000 a month, but buying is $1300 a month. Two choice.
1) buy for $1300 a month, eventually rents will rise to $1300. Assumign 3% inflation and rent rising at rate of inflation, that will only take 9 years. In those 9 years, you will have spent $16K more on the house than you would have spent on rent.
Then they may actually rise to $1600. At 3% inflation/rising rents, that only takes 8 years. So, by owning, you save back $14K. It takes a full 20 years to be back even.
Oh, but wait. If median rent has climbed at the rate of inflation, your house has gotten 20 years older and your neighborhood has aged 20 years, so is unlikely to still be at the same point in the list of medians, so it is probably more than 20 years to break even.
But wait, there is more!!! It is assumed that even with a super-safe govt bond you’ll be making interest above inflation. So….
Option 2) Rent for $1000 and put $300 a month into super safe investments. Assuming those investments earn a higher yield than inflation, then you’re WAY ahead of buying.
Again, the only reason to pay more than rent is if you think rents will jump (not likely today with all the construction of the last few years), if rates are high and you think you’ll be able to refi for less in a few years (not true today), or if prices of houses are low and likely to go up (not true today).
I’ve never paid a premium for owning vs. renting.
PITI on my first place (3br starter home) was less than on my 1bdrm apartment (1993).
PITI on my 2nd place (4br, 3000+sqft) was only a little more than a nice 2 bdrm apartment in the same town (note that on a quality scale, the house was far cheaper) (1998).
PITI on my 3rd place (3br townhouse) was slightly less than what identical places were renting for (2002).
So, my experience was “why throw money away on rent?” Of course, in many places, that doesn’t apply these days.
Neither have I. A mere 10 years ago it was much cheaper to buy a nice 2 bedroom condo than rent the equivalent in this semi-unaffordable state.
In theory, it should always be cheaper per month to own. Ownership has high transaction costs and higher risks. In addition, you should be paying for close to the same as a landlord in terms of maintenance, etc and if you are like us, having to do the work yourself. Once upon a time, it was even suggested that you should rent if you did not plan to stay at the home for 2-5 years. It took that long before you gained back the losses to buy it. What a world that was…
I can’t wait for more price cuts! At the peak, there was very little that middle class could afford. I would be looking at a mobile home or a small house in the middle or rural nowhere. All the nice houses were like $200k anywhere in the US. I am hoping there will be nice houses for under $100k.
“The reason it bothers me is that my wife also hears it and starts in on me with the “c’mon, how long are we going to wait?”
Tell her you’ll wait til the divorce papers come thru! Just another dumb nester wanting to be able to brag about her crib!
I am so thankful I am smart enough to realise marriage is a huge mistake, one that ill never make. My parents want me to settle down oneday. Um no thanks. I want to be single forever! I don’t really even care about women much. although I wouldn’t mind being friends with sweet ladies that respect me and share mutual interests.
“I am so thankful I am smart enough to realise marriage is a huge mistake, one that ill never make.”
Most people really don’t understand the true purpose of marriage. It has been vastly over-romanticized by the media, IMHO. June, moon, spoon..baloney. It’s supposed to be a team effort. Life can really suck out there, so it is important to have someone watching your back. When they start stabbing your back, no good.
Half of the single geezers around here look to get married so they can have a cheap nurse in their old age.
“Half of the single geezers around here look to get married so they can have a cheap nurse in their old age.”
o rly? Those 70-80 year old geezers marrying women in their 30s and 40s and in a few years when he dies, she inherits his fortune and estate, denying his sons/daughter the rightful heir. I don’t want either of my parent to ever remarry when one dies because there are many scammers out there that marry for the money, I see it in the news all the time. I know that when I get old, I am giving most of my fortune to my descendants so they can have a better life.
Marriage aren’t what it used to be. 70% of marriages fail and almost all marriages are unhappy with people cheating, stealing, scamming, lying, arguing, making bad financing decisions, not working as a team.
Why not just date and make some female friends? It works out much better that way and both parties are far happier. If anyone wants to live with me, they are welcome to buy a house near mine(sharing the same house, unless its a rental has many potential problems)
Judicious1, is your wife willing to wait another year or two? What problems does she have with renting? If worse comes to worse, maybe you could relocate to where house prices arent overly bubbled so they won’t be dropping that much. I know that NW Pennsylvania has some nice houses for $50k! When I am ready, ill buy one there unless prices elsewhere drop enough.
That’s not true: the divorce rate is 50%, and the divorce rate on first marriages is much lower.
Some people are serial marriers; they skew the mean.
As the gp poster said, it’s good to have someone watching your back. My gf is my best friend too.
That is not true. First marriages have the highest rate of divorce, over 60%. Second marriages have a much lower divorce rate.
“My parents want me to settle down one day.”
No offense, but if you’re hearing this from your parents you are probably too young to get married anyway. Have fun and enjoy yourself for now and once you get your fill of that you may change your mind. Good luck to you.
Getting married to a woman that makes far less than you is DUMB!!!! If you marry somoene that makes close to you, then you let her quit to raise kids is DUMB!!!!!!
My first marriage cost me a good $80K to get out of (plus $12K a year child support on top of that).
Next Saturday I’m marrying a woman that makes only 20% less than me, and she has much more potential for raises than me. I expect that to close to within 10% or less within 5 years. My youngest is 16. Her youngest is 9. Both of us are “fixed” so there will be no more kids. We’re both right about the same age (40/38) and have very similar values on money.
Over the first 3 years after my divorce, I dated, then broke up with many younger women that were far more into fashion, perception, style, etc. Get a paycheck, make minimum payments on the credit cards, then use the rest to buy shoes. Marrying one of THOSE would have been stupid.
I wish you luck on the 2nd marriage. What if that fails too? How much would it cost you? Why is it usually that the male has to pay the female when divorcing? I can see why women are much more eager to marry than males, she gets free money and a divorce would line her purse, maybe if she was much richer than the male then the male might get a little money.
I stand correct that 70%+ of marriages fail. Most of the friends I know have divorced, some twice or more. Many wish they never ever married. I do know this 66 year old with a GF and he is smart enough to never marry because it will cost him his retirement nest egg. Why marry when you can have a girlfriend who can’t lay a finger on your assets? And if you see she just wants your money, break up and kick her out, easy as that.
Seems like you were into perception, too, if you dated all of these high-maintenance femmes.
Incidently, both partners usually lose big economically in a divorce. Why else do you think single mothers (many of whom are divorcees) are so likely to live in poverty?
If marriage is an economic arrangement, in an individualistic society, it is bound to fail. Everyone wants to be captain of their own ship.
If marriage is based on friendship, in a society where there is so little community, then it becomes a shoal in a stormy sea…
Of course you can pay someone to have sex with you. If that’s all you’re looking for, *don’t get married*.
Why marry when you can have a girlfriend who can’t lay a finger on your assets?
Ever heard of palimony?
Ever heard of AIDS, Herpes, or any of the other STD’s?
even 50% divorce rate is too high. I can get everything from a friend, why would I need a wife? Friends(both genders) are there for each other and you can have dozens of friends with little or no jealousity. No need to marry just to be friends. Oh and I never want children.
To stay on topic, I have seen posters mention that their wives want a house as a nest and now isnt the time to buy. One guy I know gave in and bought a house after the wife wouldn’t stop nagging. Guess what, they are getting foreclosed and divorced!
Grrrrrrrrrr makes me so mad and gives reason after reason to realise marriage is a bad idea for me and almost everyone else.
We have also seen posters talk about convincing their husbands to wait.
What you need is a good woman, not a status-seeker. Of course, finding one is non-trivial.
If I find a good woman, then we will be best friends and she can buy a house near mine and we can see each other everyday and talk about our plans for the day, go shopping together or perhaps enjoy a nice walk outside. I am self employed and she will need to find some sort of home business as jobs suck where ill be relocating to but houses will be cheap as a result
Over the first 3 years after my divorce, I dated, then broke up with many younger women that were far more into fashion, perception, style, etc. Get a paycheck, make minimum payments on the credit cards, then use the rest to buy shoes. Marrying one of THOSE would have been stupid.
To bring you up to speed on the current dating scene, substitute houses for shoes in your paragraph and you get the idea.
Got 10% down?
I wonder how high the divorce rate will increase as this Bubble unwinds? Maybe that is where all the extra demand for houses will come from - divorced couples who just got burned in the Bubble market! Oh, wait - now they make half as much money as they did before the divorce… but we can’t lower the price of the house?! What to do, what to do…
Seriously though, if dating and such isn’t dangerous enough normally with diseases, palimony, and angry-ex’s running around, I fear for anyone who gets shackled to a home-moaner with a soon-to-default mortgage!
Maybe we need a new dating website for such folks? NOD’s and Hotties? ARM’ed and Dangerous? So many options! Single, cute woman/man looking for prince/princess charming to rescue me from my mortgage. Stated incomes welcome! Hahahaha! Argh!
Thanks for all the feedback, including you death_spiral (it’s not so ugly that we would get divorced over it, but thanks).
I do point out to her that even the “experts” are stating they don’t expect things to get better until “at least 2008″. Hmm, at least 2008, sounds like you’re really thinking 2010 or so but don’t want to state that in public.
I’ve explained to my wife that many potential buyers have been eliminated due to tighter lending standards, speculation is now pretty much eliminated, ARMs will continue to reset on owners that can’t afford the higher payments and we could see interest rates rise significantly due to macroeconomic forces. She gets it, but she doesn’t have the patience that I have. I think (and hope) she’ll be thanking me in a few years because we waited this out.
2012.
Take heart–a lot of posters here, male and female, have had to convince a spouse (me included). Facts usually do the trick (unless your SO really is a scammer–my great uncle married one of those).
when spouse and i get tempted to buy, we just take a LITTLE of the money we have saved by renting and go on a nice cruise. Tell you what, 18 months of renting and 3 cruises later, the idea of buying a home isn’t so tempting now.
In my case, two European vacations later … ggg
We’re saving for a vacation fund on higher priority than downpayment. I mean, seriously, it’s just a house. Of course, I am hoping for a sw33t d3al that will let me use the Bohemian downpayment plan … cash.
I’m patient.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…
1) Determine a comfortable monthly nut.
2) RENT a house for that amount for a year.
3) While renting, shop for houses that’ll run the same monthly figure (PITI).
I guarantee he/she won’t give up the rental for a purchase, given that it would be a huge downgrade.
“Devaney’s company, Key Biscayne-based United Capital Markets Holdings, acknowledged this week that it has suffered ’significant losses’ on its risky subprime mortgage trades. The company has taken the unusual step of not allowing investors to cash out of four of its hedge funds.”
“…not allowing investors to cash out…” Legal, apparently, but Whoa.
Given the very asset levels of hedge fund investors, it seems reasonable to conclude that those investors read a lot and that this United Capital “glitch” has not escaped their attention. Assuming that this is the whiff of smoke in the theater — won’t an awful lot of hedge fund investors be quietly but quickly heading for the exits right now? I wonder how many days or weeks it will take for the flames to appear.
Given the very *high* asset levels…
Invested in very illiquid CDO’s and lveraged 5:1 is not a good idea. These fund managers get 20% of the profits for taking stupid risks.
and people call day trading risky! LOL
all I have to do is hit a bid
Legal? Of course, they are totally unregulated. You gave me money, which I used as colatteral to borrow more money, which I used to buy CDOs. I can’t give you your money back, until I pay the loans that it is securing, and I can’t pay back those loans until I sell my CDOs… which I can’t sell.
Rumors of the high-leverege Bear Stearns fund blow ups at the start of last month were the whif of smoke. The actual blowup of that fund 3 weeks ago, with the AAA CDOs selling off at 85%, with the B CDOs mostly worthless, were the open flames.
Now it is spreading the the other theaters in the multi-plex… Bear Stearns other funds, Brookstreet, Galinas, United Capital, etc. It is too late for anyone to flee these other theaters without 3rd degree burns.
Galinas was only 3-1 leverage. They will pay out 20% of their cash, then make additional paymets as they liquidate thier holdings. Assuming 80% of value for these CDO (optimistic?) with 3-to-1 leverage, the investors may get back another 20%. If it is 70% value for the CDOs, then the investors will get nothing more than the initial 20%, and the banks will take a loss.
Those are not “whif of smoke” scale burns.
“They will pay out 20% of their cash, then make additional paymets as they liquidate thier holdings.” Sorry, on rereading, this isn’t what I meant. They are using their cash to pay out 20% of investors stakes. So, if you put in $100K, you’re getting $20K back, and then hoping the CDOs sell for more then 75% of face so that you can get more of your stake back.
Prediction: Next Spring we see a “Sucker’s rally” that causes prices not to increase, but just plateau out for a few months before the big plunge that takes down half the mbs-exposed hedge funds in the country.
Haven’t heard much about Tallahassee. How’s the market there?
I just was talking to my wife about RIMM which has gone from $135 to $215 in the past few months. I asked her who do you suppose buys these high priced toys? Hedge fund investors she said. If I had some money to short this stock I would be all over it.
Realtor of genius!
“Boesch is optimistic long term, however, noting most sellers in The Vines aren’t succumbing to low-ball offers. ‘They’re offering 30-40 percent off and they’re saying, ‘Absolutely not. I won’t sell at that price.’”
“Besides, he said, construction prices are far higher than they were a few years ago and as inventory of homes is sold off, prices have nowhere to go but up.”
“Sometimes, however, a house’s price is simply too high for the market. Hector Saitta of Century 21 Novelli has the listing for a three-bedroom, two-bath house in Cape Coral with an asking price of $480,000. It’s been on the market 812 days, at least in part, he said, because the price is a little high.”
Here’s to you Art Boesch a true Kool Aide drinking Realtor of Genius!
I spoke to a homebuilder last night. He also builds fancy barns–basically showrooms–for horse breeders in Ocala.
He said he was actually doing okay because his company (small, family-owned affair) did not build any spec houses. He was concerned that if the economy got much worse that the excess supply would hurt their custom house business. However, they said they relied on word of mouth and they had a few important happy customers who gave their name to multiple new customers. He also said more people were interested in custom build because word was getting out about quality problems with the spec builders.
It was a cool conversation. Unlike the real estate agent I spoke to in G’ville, he was very realistic about the situation.
Anyway, I got a figure from him about the corporate HB’s building spec houses. It surprised me because much lower figures have been bandied about on this site.
He said it cost them $130-140,000 to build a house on spec.
He also said a relative of his bought one of these houses for $120,000 in Ft. Myers and was feeling pretty good about himself.
He said if they sold for less than $140K they were taking a loss, in order to limit their losses (because of carrying costs).
If he is correct, the HBs are in much worse trouble than we thought.
I live in Marion County, and as an Entrepreneur with a lot of experience in many Fields I can surely say from what Your friend said , most is true , but I would adjust the Numbers and here is why.
It does not cost $130,000 or $140,000 to build a Spec House. At least not the Avg 3/2/1 Block and Stucco of which Many thousands are for sale here now with about 3 different Floor Plans. That house will cost You about 80 to 90k , less if You could get a GC who needs work.
Remember now , this 80 or 90 k includes cost of labor and profit to the builder.
The remaining Money is Lot and Prep, Landscaping, Driveway,etc. In 2002 You could buy a Decent lot for 5K. So You could buy one of these homes for 89k to 99k. During the Boom , and when supplies were tighter, Materials , labor and Builder Profit all went up. Plus lot Prices Shot up by up to 1000% or More on Speculation.
Now things have changed Drastically , and Your Friend is Right, as a Little Independent Builder He can Do Ok if He uses a Little good Business sense and doesn’t get greedy, and Here’s the Reason Why.
Lot Prices are Falling like a Rock. (1000% in 2 Years? wonder why?).
We are now, WAY OVERBUILT! Materials are Down , wages are Down
and Builders Cannot Command Profits of 40% anymore.
Now , here is something most people Don’t think of . What exactly is a Builder? There are several different levels of Builders. Your Friend who is a general contractor, who Him and his family build Your Custom Home for You. Then You have the Small Business guy who Hires Guys like Your friend to build houses , then sells to others at a Markup. Then You have the Big Guys like KB, who do the same types of thing on a Much larger scale.
Who do You think can Build a House Cheaper? Your Friend who works for Himself , and He and his Family do most the work, or KB, or ABC Mister Big Company with thousands of Accountants, office workers, Salesmen, Co’s , managers, etc?
Now to get to Point. Yes , Now You have thousands of Houses that were built for $130k to $140K in cost at the Peak. They don’t want to lose Money, most can’t afford it. That is why prices are sticky on the way down. But Now what happens. Lot Prices fall, labor falls, materials fall. On that 140k house they had figured 40k for the lot. Now that lot is 15k. 25K reduction, materials down 5k, labor down 5k.
Now I as a Prospective Home buyer have 2 choices, pay You 140K for You House Bought at inflated, speculative Prices, or Hire a small builder like Your Friend to build me a New one on my cheap lot I bought and save 30K or More?
Right Now I can go buy a Lot, and have a Builder build Me a New 3/2/2 with 1950 Sf under roof on comparable lot for 35k or more under what’s built now . I seriously look for these 140K houses to be selling 100 to 109k in the near Future. Probably will take 2 or more Years. Those holding now are screwed, Repo or take a huge hit when they get tired of losing Money and Realize this Down Cycle in Florida is going last at least 8 more Years.
I’m pretty good at calling this stuff. All my Predictions for central Florida in the last 2 Years have been dead on.
Wow, and to top it all off you’re quite modest as well.
ok.. i’ll play the fool and be the first to ask about the capitalized words. What’s up with that?
Yes , normally, in person I am quite ” modest ” . But when I am trying to make a point, especially about Business, Money and many other things which I have learned the “hard way”, modesty does not fit into the picture. Since others do not know Me , I must sound as least as “confident” as these “so called experts’ who don’t know squat , or the shills out to mis-lead others for Financial gain.
If I sound like a mouse, not confident in what I say, who would listen to anything I say, as I am not, ” the speaker for the NAR ? But if I make Bold observations and predictions , when they do materialize then maybe People will stop listening to reporters, MSM, and Paid shills for corporations, and the NAR.
No, I do not think I am better than anyone else. And I do not mean to come off as a Smart A** know it all. I am not a professional writer, and when writing it could come out that way.
But I am ” intelligent and very good at a lot of things.” in my life I have seen, done and lived life, far in excess of most and I do have a ” knack” for certain things.
I am just stating facts which I know, and my observations of many Years of experience. If I come off as sharp it may be because I hate writing. But I do know ,that, of which I speak.
Maybe I will take a writing class later. I don’t understand why some things bug others so much. The same people who say things like ” Wow he’s modest !” , are the same ones who critique everyone’s Grammar, use of quotations , etc. , as to say ” look at me” I’ve been to College and I can ” write well ” , I am so smart.
Seriously , lighten up on others. Don’t believe Me fine. But I’ll put my Predictions up against the NAR any Day.
PS. I do have a Thing for Capitals Letters. Go Figure?
actually, you educated me about some of the ins and outs of contracting a house.. no question about your knowledge and thanks for sharing it now and in your other postings.
As far as the Caps, i read a bit and have reading habits developed from expecting and presuming more-or-less proper punctuation. Depending on the flow of thought, a capped word with no period prior to it sometimes fools my eyes and i gotta stop and re-read to see if one sentence ended and another began.
That’s cool Joey. Like I said, I seriously could use a little practice while trying to type fast. The capital letters come from lot’s of years of writing my own business ads, posters, etc. where You use lots of capital letters to stand out. Then when I go to type something certain words get capitalized and I don’t even think about it.
I did give thought to about the way I write sometimes in response to a blog post that could come off as a little condescending. I think what it may be is I have written many instructions manuals for things, and when writing them I have to write them so the person with no clue and sometimes
not the sharpest tack in the shed can follow.
Usually when I respond to a post it may go below that post
but is written to explain to the ones who have no clue, not to the person who wrote the original post. I guess one might think I am talking down to them, which would never be my intention.
Considering that houses in Texas are built at $50/foot there is much dropping of prices in Florida to go. You already can get a lot in many places in Texas for $10k to $15k and a house built for $50/foot. A 2500 living square foot house plus lot goes for $130k to $160k depending on lot and features of house. I expect to see those prices, maybe a $5k to $15k premium due to slightly higher land and labor costs. You can get a nice big 2500 foot house + lot for $150k in Texas at $60 a foot. That same house would be about $250k in north FL which is very overpriced at $100/foot. Should see a 30% off price or $70 foot bringing the cost down to $175k. Hopefully FL passes the super exemption then the first $200k you pay only 25% of assessed value. Hope FL doesnt play tricks like raising the milliage(percent taxed) or give assessed values of 2005 prices.
Doesnt matter for me as I most likley am not staying in FL, there are better locations for cheaper in north GA, east TN and northwest PA. The land is much cheaper and existing houses can be had for well below the cost of having a brand new house built. In northwest PA $50k gets you a nice big house *thats todays prices too!* itll only get better in a few years. ill be looking at 10-50 acres of land and a huge house for cheap!
Wow Texas must be really cheap. In ‘85 when we built in NE Ohio, an area that has the some of the lowest prices in nation, we paid $75 sq ft. Ordinary house, built by two brothers who are builders and who are basically the most reasonable pricewise in the area. We already owned the land.
When we looked in FL in ‘00 houses were about 75-90 sq ft. Upscale in top areas were $139. We never saw any for $50 sf.
“…and as inventory of homes is sold off, prices have nowhere to go but up.”
Can anyone help explain this justification? I suspect this isn’t a “supply vs. demand” analysis as much as it is wishful thinking.
justification for that hogwash is Art is a magnet for overpriced listings from unmotivated sellers.
“The Times Picayune from Florida. …”
Ummm, that’s the New Orleans Times Picayune. (Louisiana)
“Besides, he said, construction prices are far higher than they were a few years ago and as inventory of homes is sold off, prices have nowhere to go but up.”
Art Boesch - You have spoken the BS of one who believes in their own BS. You have no idea what you are talking about and you do a disservice to your customers and future prospects by spreading this nonsense to the public!
Yes. The “Future Prospects”!
The ones that can’t afford a house and depend on mommy and daddy or in-laws or grandma.
Yep