No Sign At All Of Stabilization In Florida
The Palm Beach Post reports from Florida. “Trying to back out of a pre-construction purchase on a condo? If you’re rich, forget it. A Palm Beach County Circuit Court judge ruled that a buyer could not back out of a contract to buy a $495,000 unit at Marina Grande, a $200 million waterfront condominium in Riviera Beach.”
“Judge Jonathan Gerber found that D&T Properties could not wiggle out of its contract based on higher-than-expected maintenance costs. Gerber concluded the buyer could afford the increase.”
“The ruling is important because condo buyers throughout South Florida are eager to get out of pre-construction contracts signed during the recent real estate frenzy. Now that the market has turned and the flippers market has died, many buyers are trying to undo their deals based on even minor changes to a project by a developer.”
“Gerber’s ruling is not binding on dozens of other cases now in the works because the ruling does not come from an appeals court, said Charles W. Edgar III, a Palm Beach Gardens real estate lawyer not involved in this case.”
“But it is the first time a judge has tried to define the law’s meaning, he said. ‘It’s not precedent, but it is a predictor of where other judges would go,’ Edgar said.”
“To take a shower in his new townhouse, Jeffrey Estis performs a complicated choreography. First he turns on the shower and watches a weak trickle of water come out. Then Estis turns on the faucets in separate bathrooms. Next he flushes a toilet. Then he turns on a third sink.”
“The water pressure is so low at his home at CitySide in West Palm Beach, Estis says, that he has to turn on all his faucets to trick the water pump outside into pushing enough water to his shower.”
“‘That’s what I have to do every morning in my $500,000 home,’ Estis said.”
“Estis blames WCI Communities Inc., the Bonita Springs-based home builder that built the development, for low water pressure and other shortcomings.”
“The CitySide homeowners association is considering hiring a law firm to pursue legal action against WCI. The company already is being sued by condo associations.”
“Matthew Nicolosi also gripes about the poor water pressure and WCI’s lack of response to his complaints. ‘I can barely take a shower,’ Nicolosi said. ‘You call WCI, you get the royal runaround.’”
“Another CitySide owner, David Moya, likewise is irritated by unfinished tasks such as the lack of electronic gates in the fence along Congress Avenue. ‘It’s been over a year, and they still have not completed the project,’ said Moya, a real estate agent.”
The St Petersburg Times. “For Floridians besieged by soaring home insurance and rising property taxes, this is the cruel twist no one saw coming. Even as the stagnant real estate market drags down their home values, property tax assessments for well more than 100,000 Tampa Bay area homeowners will actually increase this fall.”
“‘There’s going to be some sticker shock,’ said Ken Wilkinson, Lee County property appraiser. It has many county officials bracing for an avalanche of confused, if not angry, homeowners.”
“Declining property values are a rarity in recent Florida history. But this year in Pinellas County, values decreased on 67,000 homesteaded properties. In Hillsborough, 50,000 dipped. In Hernando, 2,800.”
From TC Palm. “American Equity Mortgage Co. is shutting its West Palm Beach office and six other offices nationwide because of the slowdown in the U.S. housing market.”
The Miami Herald. “Hundreds of Miami-Dade County employees would be laid off and hundreds more vacant positions eliminated under a cost-cutting budget that Mayor Carlos Alvarez will announce today.”
“The details have been kept among a small group of leaders, all anxious to see whether Alvarez and County Manager George Burgess managed to absorb property-tax cuts without slashing services.”
The Herald Tribune. “On the Gulf Coast and across Florida, newspapers are cutting staff and shrinking what they deliver to readers. The real estate slump is hitting Florida newspapers hard, cutting revenues by millions of dollars across the state. Like other businesses affected by the real estate slump, newspapers are cutting costs.”
“‘Problems in real estate, that goes beyond builder advertising,’ said Paul C. Tash, CEO of Times Publishing Co., publisher of the St. Petersburg Times, the state’s largest newspaper. ‘We were in the midst of a real estate boom a year ago, and in comparison to that, this doesn’t feel as good.’”
“‘California and Florida, those two states in general are seeing some pretty tough classified real estate declines right now,’ said James Walden, a stock analyst who covers the publishing industry for Morningstar.”
“If the problem were limited to real estate, it would not be that bad. But it spreads from there to affect all kinds of auxiliary businesses, from furniture showrooms to automobile dealers to corner cafes.”
“‘It is obvious that there is a domino effect on small business,’ said Vicki Vega, VP of business development at the Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce. ‘If there is no work for the builders, than naturally all the complementary businesses are feeling it as well.’”
The Orlando Sentinel. “After nearly two decades of smooth sailing, Sanford-based Federal Trust Bank has run into some serious head winds. Profit has plummeted, bad loans have skyrocketed and assets have decreased for the longtime Central Florida savings and loan.”
“It is a dramatic departure for a savings and loan that ranked 53rd in a 2005 survey of the nation’s 100 best-performing public thrifts. Profit fell 23 percent last year.”
“Federal Trust is not alone in its troubles, said John McCune, research director for SNL Financial LLC. The housing slump has especially hurt thrifts, because many invested heavily in residential development during the boom years, he said.”
“‘The thrift industry as a whole is getting hit, but Federal Trust is being hit harder than most,’ McCune said.”
“One of the bank’s most problematic issues has been the large increase in nonperforming assets, or bad loans that are in default. Noncurrent loans jumped almost fivefold to $16.7 million in the first quarter. Overall, nonperforming assets totaled $18.8 million, an increase of 376 percent.”
“Nationally known economist Mark Zandi told home builders and industry professionals meeting Wednesday in Orlando that the beleaguered U.S. housing industry could bleed for another year or more.”
“And Florida, he said, will be one of the states with the worst hemorrhaging.”
“‘There’s no sign at all of stabilization,’ said Zandi, a featured speaker at an industry forum related to the Southeast Building Conference, which opens today at the Orange County Convention Center.”
“More needs to be done, he said, including deeper price cuts for both existing and new homes, and further cuts in housing starts.”
‘Data show there were 6,630 foreclosures in South Florida in the second quarter. The June total was up a staggering 167 percent from the 818 foreclosures in the same month last year.’
‘Lee County was the state’s hardest hit by foreclosures in the second quarter, with a 28 percent increase. Miami-Dade County experienced a region-leading 2,827 foreclosures in the second quarter. That’s well above the 417 foreclosures in June 2006.’
‘Broward County had mixed results. It had 2,260 foreclosures in the second quarter. It led the region in June with 905 foreclosures, up 33 percent from 680 foreclosures in May and up sharply from 246 foreclosures in June 2006.’
‘Palm Beach County had 1,543 foreclosures in the second quarter, up 18 percent from 1,307 foreclosures in the first quarter. The county had 578 foreclosures in June, up 10 percent from 527 foreclosures in May and a surge from 155 foreclosures in June of last year.’
‘Data show there were 6,630 foreclosures in South Florida in the second quarter. The June total was up a staggering 167 percent from the 818 foreclosures in the same month last year.’
Something wrong with the math here. 167 percent more than 818 is only about 2000. Still up an assload though!
I think they’re talking quarterly numbers vs. monthly number.
“‘Palm Beach County had 1,543 foreclosures in the second quarter, up 18 percent from 1,307 foreclosures in the first quarter. The county had 578 foreclosures in June, up 10 percent from 527 foreclosures in May and a surge from 155 foreclosures in June of last year.’”
Palm Beach was ground zero for liar’s loans and “creative financing.” This is no surprise to me. Just as an example, the Mrs. and I based on simple qualification procedure should have qualified for a $230K home loan. When we bought, we paid $221,500 for our house. One mortgage broker “qualified” us to purchase up to $575K with no money down. How could we pay for a home nearly 3 times what we could really pay for? Easy! Negative AM followed by interest only and a resetting ARM. Needless to say we didn’t use that broker. We did however use a non-traditional loan product. 20% down and no documentation. Traditional 30 year was 5.5% fixed at the time and our loan is 6.25% fixed. That’s what you pay for being self employed.
These days fixed rate loans are unconventional products. Or so they’d like one to think…
How can you be self employed and not have documentation to show what you make? That doesn’t make any sense. I never understood this, unless you hide the money that you make to avoid taxes. I would hope if a person is making different amounts each month that a bank could still figure out if a person could afford a loan or not based on 3 years of doing that.
Self employed don’t have W2’s, a one stop for what you make. SE’s use 1098/1099, cash receipts, checks, etc. Many many pieces of paper. Plus, you throw in deductions and on a tax return you can show a paper loss for IRS purposes. So based on no W2 and a tax return showing a loss, SE’s use stated income loans and pay a higher rate in return. I have had several rental properties over the years, all cash flowing and go in to get a new loan and had loan officer shriek “oh my God, you lost more than I make” and yoou have to explain depreciation, etc. The easiest thing to do is “liar loan” and not have to educate some wet behind the ears “Bank Vice President”
The wheels have already been set in motion for the ultimate crash. There’s nothing anyone can do about it. Have you seen whats going on with the Ron Paul Revolution?
The Miami Herald. “Hundreds of Miami-Dade County employees would be laid off and hundreds more vacant positions eliminated under a cost-cutting budget that Mayor Carlos Alvarez will announce today.”
i had said that sofla (like many others) counties will have no choice but to layoff county deadwood. And indeed the good mayor is doing the needful. (broward/palm beach and a myriad of deadwood in other city offices take heed)
Counties have been on the binge for the last few years. That money is gone. Poof.
Budgets have to be slashed as housing market values will keep plummeting requiring reappraisals of property taxes.
In the broader market, the Bull has not given up yet. But rest assured that global financial meltdown is not a matter of if but a matter of when.
“But rest assured that global financial meltdown is not a matter of if but a matter of when.”
Guys, how about some perspective here? Most people on this blog are no better than (say) the NAR in their speak, except that they preach doom and destruction. I know I am in a minority here, but I am beginning to hate the chest thumpers on this blog who most likely are gloomy haters intending to wallow in their misery.
I am not a home owner and will not be one for a loooing time (I live in the SF bay area). But that does not mean that I pray every day for a depression.
Housing market will correct, but it will most likely be a long period of consolidation and flat to mild reduction, rather than one big crash.
Housing market will correct, but it will most likely be a long period of consolidation and flat to mild reduction, rather than one big crash.
I agree that a major world wide housing crash would be a bad thing, but would argue that the bad thing was the bubble. The massive liquidity and nature of the buble is the desease, and like a cancer next comes the medicine. In effect the housing crash got underway when global monetary policy destabilized it by making too much credit available to too many. Now that investors wont buy bonds backed by low rated mortgage loans, where will all the money come from to keep all this air puffed into the market? I see a massive global correction. Problem is that when it comes, I fear so many of us will be out of work in the western world that even at 50% off few of us will be able to buy. Lesson for today. Live debt free. Save and don’t be that guy!
Fair enough. Now tell us how you’ve reached your conclusion.
“Most people on this blog are no better than (say) the NAR in their speak, except that they preach doom and destruction.”
If normal fundamentals were operating in the markets, we would have seen “doom and destruction” a long time ago. But what do you suppose these large foreclosure numbers are, anyway? It’s not exactly a sign of prosperity, you know.
“I am beginning to hate the chest thumpers on this blog who most likely are gloomy haters intending to wallow in their misery.”
Hating the haters? Anyway, it is true some of us feel vindicated. I know I do. I spat out the Florida kool-aid and right now can sit on the sidelines, see what’s going to happen here in the state, evaluate the events and information and move elsewhere if I have to.
I wouldn’t like to see a depression. A major correction or crash in the housing market, yes. A return of responsiblity and realistic thinking, yes. Maybe a recession to clear the air and bring people back to earth.
Excellent comment Palmetto!
We just like a little reality, that is all. Fantasy gets old, even in America.
bayarea_guyy…
Once it starts in Florida it ain’t gonna be slow. Raw land is already making a mad rush to the exits. The lots around me were selling for 3.5k in 02. At the peak they were trading for 40k. Now ?? Less than 10k. In a year.
The reason prices are not falling is the banks are sitting on reo.
Four foreclosures on my street,one now 20 months old. Not even an attempt to sell yet… By this fall its going to get veryy interesting in south Florida.
Chris
True. The most recent numbers have Cali banks holding 26K+ REO’s, and that number is growing very, very fast. at some point these will re-enter the market.
“The reason prices are not falling is the banks are sitting on reo. Four foreclosures on my street,one now 20 months old. Not even an attempt to sell yet…”
What is the bag holders breaking point. When the finger gets pulled from the dike here it will be look out below.
The question is - when will it start? IMO, In Miami it has not started yet. True, the prices of the tract houses along the turnpike are dropping, but the established neighbourhoods are holding peak prices, for some reason.
I see no appreciable price reductions in Gables, Pinecrest, South Miami etc. This may be one more example of disconnect between entry-level and “top 10%” markets.
In any case, the rapid drop predicted on this blog for 2007 (and before that, for 2006, and before that…) is not happening here.
Inventory is high, even in good areas, but it is quite possible that is tax reform passes in January, it will restart the party again.
it is not about being negative to me, it is about maintaining livable poor and middle class communities that the govt had money for in south florida. not one developer would invest in balance housing. greed took over and left behind the people who support the infrastructure of commerce. there is alot of land and opportunity to create affordable housing, quality schools and lower the crime rate. instead, we have monster condo developments everywhere at prices that is beyond everyones reach and now people are crying about taxes and insurance. i didnt buy a 500,000 - 1,000 shack in the sky. it is not about hating, it is about reality. everyone priced everyone out and now there is nothing else with inventory all over the place.
find a buyer who purchased a property from 2004 to 2006 that is not upside down or close to upside down.
south florida is becoming the new (atlantis)
The global disease is liquidity. Too many fools with too much borrowed money. Back in the old days when interest rates were 7+% one had to chose wisely where to INVEST money to get higher returns. In addition credit was hard to come by. With lose lending standards and extremely low intesrest rate (Japan carry trade) every moron can get a wad of cash. Vegas style gambling on bonds, stocks, housing and commodities are the result. This will continue as long as money is easy to come by. I don’t think housing prices, stocks and commodities will decline much as long as this insanity persists. With M3 money supply growing at around 15% expect prices to go up in similar fashion. It’s called inflation. When and IF the cheap money spigot gets turned off prices will fall significantly. Really not sure what the future will bring deflationary depression or hyper inflation. Gambling is NOT investing; unfortunately most players in today’s market place think the two are synonymous.
they aren’t. Sooner or later they will find out the hard way.
“…but I am beginning to hate the chest thumpers on this blog…”
Then find a different BLOG. I don’t speak for everyone here, but I report from the field and I AM a homeowner. If you’re not, don’t dare call me a chest thumper. Housing prices in my neighborhood has dropped from $350K (or more) at the peak to $250K (some less) right now. Seems like one big crash to me with more room to fall. Those who are desparate to get out in addition to foreclosures are bringing prices down fast. Your theory would only hold water if the only people selling were people who bought at the peak of the boom and they weren’t lowering prices. You’d have to factor everyone who didn’t buy in 2004/2005 as well as the banks completely out.
I’m not sure what the definition of crash is, but I know that the areas in North Tampa that I’ve been looking at for over a year have come down dramatically and the slide seems to be accelerating over the last couple of months. Houses that were selling for around 330K are now down in the 250K range. Certainly this an exurban area more prone to collapse, but alot of people live there.
“I’m not sure what the definition of crash is,…Houses that were selling for around 330K are now down in the 250K range…”
Meets my definition of a crash! You’re talking a loss of 24%+ year over year. In many parts of Palm Beach County we’re seeing 33% drops year over year. My neighborhood (existing homes) $350K down to $250K…new construction is down in a similar way…$499K down to $330K. This is not just a “small correction” but rather a nosedive from peak.
Just wait until those two freight trains reality and prices collide out here in So Cal.
A full-time house-flipper and his mortgage-broker partner told recently me that business was really picking up, and, clearly, both sincerely believed the future of real estate speculators was wonderful. I guess pseudoloans for over-valuated properties are still available in Florida, especially to subsidized low-income buyers (the people they market their glorified shacks to).
probably right, but tell that to Floridians,AZ and NV and…………..
it’s got my biz off 50% so far
I checked so many homes in ventura coutny on zip realty yuyesterday night. So many of them are selling for 2005 prices. The listing does not say if all are foreclosures, but current listed price is less than the 2005 sales price.
There are some others listed for a wishing price and most of these have been bought prior to 2002. DOnt know if they have been HELOCed and hence cannot reduce the price or they are just greed or they are testing waters (like a realtor would say)
I’m impressed at the progress and hopefull of buying in 2008/2009
I am not a home owner and will not be one for a loooing time (I live in the SF bay area). But that does not mean that I pray every day for a depression.
Hey Bayguy - I don’t see this group as doom and gloom as much as I see them as traditionalists who have been playing by what they view as the official rules of the economics game. They view the various bubbles (housing, stocks,etc…) as Amateur’s Night. Kinda like a poker game where the guy who never played before wins all the hands and then thinks he’s some sort of genius. Or where the boss hires his son-in-law instead of a better qualified candidate. You play it smart, you bust your balls to get educated, and the stupid and the lucky end up winning and patting themselves on the back. Ultimately, the poker novice runs out of luck and the bosses’ son-in-law will (theoretically) need to produce. And not soon enough. That’s how I see it, anyway.
Guys, don’t feed this troll. He/she is posting under multiple screen names and just trying to get a rise out of you. Posting and responding to oneself is pretty lame.
Regardless of whether he’s a troll or not, I’m afraid he’s dead wrong.
I just got back from a two day visit to Newfound Lake in NH where my family vacationed for over a decade (until a couple of years ago). I counted 30 “For Sale” signs around this clean, little, lake and while there has always been property for sale each season the volume is probably TRIPLE the norm. It wasn’t just my, personal, paranoia, the couple I was with and even my wife (who often tires of my bearish statements) were amazed.
In addition to the property for sale, there were plenty of “for rent” signs around for vacation as well as other properties. This at the height of the summer season. Wherever we went, there were virtually no crowds. While the weather was a bit uneven, it wasn’t bad by any stretch so there didn’t appear to be an unusual excuse for the lack of activity.
Anecdotes, of course, aren’t scientific but if it means anything to see a 30-40% lack of activity relative to a decade’s experience (in the same vacation week each year) my visit did nothing to disabuse me of my bearishness.
Frankly, it scared me to see how quiet it was. It really scared me to hear my friends mention it to me without me bringing it up first. If this isn’t a sign of problems in the economy I’d be interested in knowing what could account for the lack of activity and crowds I’d grown accustomed to seeing for many, many years at this time and in this place.
Jag, your post is exactly why I spend time here. These types of observations are priceless - huge money is spent to ’survey’ the general population on a regular basis for data that can not even approach the reality you see and feel. That’s the good stuff. Thank you.
Visited Rockport on Cape Ann north of Boston this week. Downtown shopping area deserted. Parking usually requires a fistfight was everywhere. In 7 mile scenic stretch around the cape counted 54 for sale signs, quite a number appeared to be of the Bed & Breakfast variety. Lot of vacancy signs.
Let me try that again.
Visited Rockport on Cape Ann north of Boston this week. Downtown shopping area deserted. Parking usually requires a fistfight was everywhere. In 7 mile scenic stretch around the cape counted 54 for sale signs, quite a number appeared to be of the Bed & Breakfast variety. Lot of vacancy signs.
Ben,
Where does his IP address hail from?
turnoutthelights,
I agree completely. This blog is priceless and has already made me a little pot of money (to be used later when cash is king). The comments and links, along with other news sources, help me gauge sentiment. I can’t believe the stock market is holding out. I sell short and then wait for a bear trap to unwind. Then, unbelievably, the market goes up again. So, I get in short and wait for a bear trap to unwind. I’ve done this several times now. I’m not sure how many times I can do this because at some point, the downturn will no longer be a bear trap, but instead will be full on bearish. I’ll either be short or cashed out, so no worries here. I know some see this as unpatriotic, speculative, etc. My excuse is that this market is begging for correction.
I’ve only been around a couple of months and have learned a lot already. I’m just glad I stumbled across it.
Sorry, but how can I not be a doom and gloomer when the gubmint owes 9 TRILLION and state, county, and local debt is out of control, and corporate debt is at all-time highs, and personal debt, even without mortgages and HELOCS is wack.
Bottom line is the entire economy is running on this shite and people continue to act like nothing is wrong.
Oh, and don’t forge to add all the future entitlement programs we have. Oh, I forgot, you will just disband them, rather than pay. Nice going.
Count me out of this crap. I think I will just buy with cash the place txchick posted yesterday in NE and start farming again. I am just so sick of how great everything is when most, not all, people cannot even afford day-to-day living expenses.
Anecdotal evidence is interesting ONLY in the method on which is was chosen. You make a point that there are approx. 3x more houses for sale. Yet we don’t know how many of those houses are being sold becuase of financial problems vs. sellers just testing the waters. We also don’t know if boat traffic on the lake is down because of gas prices (which seems likely) but it may be because of the 4th falling in the middle of the week so people didn’t want to burn that many vacation days. See my point? Without statistical analysis to filter out the noise, anecdotal evidence is junk.
The points are certainly interesting to read but let’s keep them in perspective. I even like to read where people extrapolate the results to the macro-economy. Gee, that Delta flight left full so they must be making money, right?
PLEASE NOTE THAT using this evidence is the same thing the housing shills were doing in 2005 to justify continutally rising prices.
Frankly, it scared me to see how quiet it was.
Tourism for any place north of Portland, ME on a parallel
is dead.
I went whitewater boatin’ in The Forks (whitewater capital of the Northeast), and the place was a ghost-town.
And this was on a 5-DAY weekend! if you grabbed a couple paid vacation days to fill in behind the 4th.
For Joe 6-pack and the kiddo’s It’s big screen TV’s, video games, and a Domino’s pizza delivery.
Pretty scarey seein’ as mcuh of New England is now heavily dependant on the tourist trincket trade.
A Big housing crash will hurt the entire economy, stocks markets, jobs, etc. However, it may be inevitable. The US economy has always cycled ups and downs. When demand goes up so we produce more stuffs and more people get employed and ppl buy stuffs, economy goes up. Then we over produce, supply outweigh demand, people stop buying and some lose their jobs, economy goes down. The US economy tends to prosper for 6 -10 years and then have a downturn (recession) for 6 months -2 years.
My concern is we haven’t had a recession in so long now to bring the market back to balance. Many of my friends who are very young (Im 26) never face a recession. They are making 70K and 80K salaries and think the good time is forever. Ppl buy 400K and 500K house assuming jobs will be there, houses and stocks will always go up,…no risk factor considered at all
Yup. When prices are shooting up, everyone wants to get rid of all regulations and impediments so that they can put their money wherever it’s getting highest returns. When a downturn happens it’s “where are the regulators,” and “Who can I sue.” You can’t have the bubble withhout the ensuing crash. An RE crash has been “baked in” by the crazy appreciation that we had. Of course the stock market suffering from the same problems.
I agree with Bayareaguy, Its been two years of chest beating on this blog, but just when is this recession/depression supposed to hit. It sounds like you all want it to happen but its just is not happening. Ofcourse there are reactions to a market that was out of control for three years or more, but houses are still selling and not far off the prices being asked in many cases. Here in Phoenix/Scottsdale 10% off asking price seems to bring in the buyers. The large listing numbers are inflated by sellers trying to cash in on hyperinflated prices, but they don’t really care if they sell or not. The real hardcore sellers are more realistic and are probably in line with traditional listing numbers. So I think all you chest beaters should be a bit more realistic in your comments, the crash hasn’t happened yet, and it may not happen as badly as you all predict.
TROLL ALERT
In Phoenix/Scottsdale, as I understand it, there is still demand from the Cali bubble refugees, many of whom are very happy to move to AZ.
As far as the “crash”, I’m predicting 1Q 2008 as the moment of real pain. See you here then, Mr. Realtor.
Crash is not happening in Miami either. Actually, in Q1 2008 the party can restart again, if the tax reform passes.
There is too much global liquidity, some tiny part of it gets spent in Miami, and it is hard for me to see what may cause this picture to change, without global tightening.
I am renting in Miami (definitely cheaper than buying for now), but I am afraid that the next round of madness will get the prices another 20-30% up - and then what…?
If you consider this impossible, just look at England or Netherlands.
“Actually, in Q1 2008 the party can restart again, if the tax reform passes.”
Won’t pass, so don’t worry about the party re-starting.
Why not ? - they grandfather everybody with SOH exemption. Lots of money will be thrown into “yes” campaing by FAR and other home-related industries. May well get 60%.
I don’t think there will be a 1 quarter crash….just 1 or 2 or 3 or 4% down quarterly (depending upon locale), compounded through 2010 or so. Some of this will show up in larger jumps at (true) auction. That’s how it happened in Austin 20 years ago.
But basically, these overbuilt / overpriced areas will go down 30-60%. The foreclosure party is just in its first hour….we’ve a long night ahead
…
‘I agree with Bayareaguy’
Well, you are a realtor….
Interesting to see the trolls come out to play. It means they’re starting to wonder if maybe we’re right. I don’t mind a well-reasoned argument against a point of view. Realtors say “Location. Location. Location”. We say “Fundamentals. Fundamentals. Fundamentals”.
BULLSEYE. Fear of the truth draws them in. It’s the same mechanism that draws dump criminals back to the scene of the crime.
Of couorse these fathead trolls are coming here. They are starting to get panicked. Stucco show them the 3 charts again with subprime, Alt-A, and A loans just sliding dow the tubes. That was a good one.
I agree with Bayareaguy
Good, now get back to work in your fast food industry job!
It’s as simple as a common law of physics…for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction…the correction will be as severe as the run up.
If we have a severe depression everyone, including most bloggers here will suffer also. It’s going to be bad for home owners and renters alike. The people who brag about how much they have put away in savings, could very well see their savings disappear as the markets crash. No one will be immune to the destruction of a recession, because it hits every segment of the economy.
Most people on this blog are no better than (say) the NAR in their speak, except that they preach doom and destruction.
It’s solid facts backed by solid data that results in our preaching doom and destruction! We are not like the NAR or other insitutions who are out to line their pockets or their members pockets through positive spin to fool the consumer. The consumer needs to know the real facts and what is impacting the market and not the BS from special interest groups who twist the truth! Do your own research and you to will find the truth! Otherwise, listen to the spin of those who want to line their pockets through unethical pratices and cost you your hard earn dollars.
“But that does not mean that I pray every day for a depression.”
What someone wishes for in regards to the housing recession is pretty irrelevant.
deadwood they are
unless you carry a gun,firehook or scalpel
I don’t really need your “service”
So you don’t drive on roads? Or buy anything delivered on roads. That’s pretty special.
Problem is, governments aren’t any more efficient identifing the deadwood when they’re shrinking than when they’re growing.
” At least falling market values mean lower assessments, and that means lower taxes.
That makes sense - except when government gets involved. In this case, it would be the folks in Tallahassee. They decided that the same voters who approved the Save Our Homes amendment intended that when the values of homesteaded properties go down, tax assessments can still go up.”
I had NO idea about this aspect of SOH. NO CLUE!! Wow, you really gotta hand it to Florida politicos, they sure know how to hide the sand in the vaseline. The Defartment of Revenue submitted a rule that Governor Chiles (and here I’ve been extolling his virtues all these years, color me RED with embarrassment) and the Cabinet and they approved it. It’s like Bush’s signing statements.
Forget about real estate and stock. TAXES only go up.
Let me get this straight, those with SOH grandfathered in values are complaining that their taxable values are SO far behind the assesments that even when prices are falling, their taxable values are still going up? And in MD we have much the same system, and my taxable values are more than 3 years behind my assesments.
And I am so happy for it!!!! I hope they never catch up.
Palmetto… you’re a FL guy. Check out the crashing prices in Miami featured on ABC. Crashing prices crushing specu-vestors.
http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/story?id=3362215&page=1&ref
This is the story that was on Nightline the other night. When he asked her if she’d be suing if the prices had gone up, she said no because the condo would be worth more per sq ft.
But all is well in Miami according to RealTurds. lmao…
Posted over in the Bits Bucket. Interesting article on the effects of deadbeat developers in South Hillsborough County. Great photos. I should’ve squatted there and taken it by adverse possession.
http://www.observernews.net/artman/publish/article_002288.shtml
Hey Palmetto,
Yikes, that’s just outside my sub (Riverbend). Absolute shame. I don’t understand how that was allowed to happen. Sure glad we are renting.
Hey, Dave, I was hoping you’d post. Yep, that story is a shocker. I was surprised that vagrants and gangs would be in that particular area.
One of the empty homes in here had the garage door spray painted with gang graffiti a couple months ago. At the time I brushed it off as a joke, but now I wonder. The inventory of homes for rent in here keeps growing with more people leaving…… I don’t know how this development is not going to be a disaster…. And the building continues. Hey if you’re interested there’s a dozen homes under construction in the back section just reduced to 569,000-750,000. And they’ll throw in graffiti for free.
Oh, and I forgot to mention in addition to the house cost, HOA fees, taxes, insurance, you get to pay about 350.00 a month in CCD fees. What a joke and pending disaster…
Like we discussed before, Dave, Riverbend is a good idea gone bad, or maybe just developed at the wrong time. If you like the Ruskin area (with all its faults, I like it, it is a great location IMHO) hang in there. The best part of town, IMHO, is around where you live. You might just be able to pick up one of those homes in the more traditional neighborhoods to the west of you (Wendi Lane, Saffold Park) for cheap. No HOAs, etc. Only problem is, there are two mobile home developments nearby(Fairmont Park and another one that’s sort of hidden away) that are full of illegals and their progeny. I think that’s where the trouble is coming from. Unfortunately, in these developments, the residents own the land, so they can’t really be bought out, unless someone were to do a Briny Breezes deal and I don’t think we’ll see something like that for a long time now.
The area we’ve been watching is Sundance. Asking prices are ridiculous but of course nothing is selling. Are you familiar with that area? We won’t even consider buying for at least another year. I fully expect prices to fall at least 50 percent.
I’m not personally familiar with the development itself, but I am familiar with the area. And the people I know who have or had homes in Sundance really like it. These are modest, decent, working class folks who bought in at the beginning of the development. As I understand it, the only thing to be careful of in Sundance is the possible flooding from the river. I know one couple who found a big old gator in their backyard one time.
BTW, Sundance is an older and more established development and pretty much what you see is what you get. Have you checked out the Cypress Creek area?
Thanks for the info, we’re still getting familiar with the area. Not sure where Cypress Creek is. We want to be in an area without HOA with bigger lots but without mobile homes - not that there’s anything wrong with mobile homes…..
To find Cypress Creek, take 674 to the intersection where the Home Depot plaza is and turn left. Cypress Creek is back in that area. Some of it is retirement, some is family homes. But I think it is HOA, so that would be out for you. Otherwise your best bet is to get a map and drive the back roads of Ruskin where there are some great properties, but also mobile homes.
I’m not surprised. There is a massive gang problem on the east side of the bay. Plant City, Lakeland, Bartow, Mango, all look like quant county towns but they are havens for migrant workers who get bored and join gangs. All those hobby farms in that area are targets.
“migrant workers who get bored and join gangs”
So much for “we’re just here to work”. Bunch creeps. And to think we almost gave them amnesty.
Latino Gangs are ALL OVER Eastern Hillsborough County.
Get a Clue.
The run from Bradenton to Tampa.
It isn’t limited to Eastern Hillsborough County, have you checked out the Town and Country area? That’s the western part and the news reports the occasional shoot out in the streets.
It isn’t limited to Eastern Hillsborough County, have you checked out the Town and Country area? That’s the western part and the news reports the occasional shoot out in the streets.
It is the entire Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas County areas. They do not stay in one place anymore. The good news is they will be stopped! Progress is underway as we speak!
2 gov workers standing around watching- that’s what they do best
Bankrupt or not that builder should have to foot the $25k bill to tear the place down. I’m sure that bill would not have been listed on the bankruptcy papers, so it should be fair game.
“To take a shower in his new townhouse, Jeffrey Estis performs a complicated choreography. First he turns on the shower and watches a weak trickle of water come out. Then Estis turns on the faucets in separate bathrooms. Next he flushes a toilet. Then he turns on a third sink.”
“The water pressure is so low at his home at CitySide in West Palm Beach, Estis says, that he has to turn on all his faucets to trick the water pump outside into pushing enough water to his shower.”
“‘That’s what I have to do every morning in my $500,000 home,’ Estis said.”
Priceless. Yep, LOTS of crap built during the boom. Expect to hear many more stories like this. Adding insult to the injury of declining property values.
Not just during this boom. My Dad had a job in South Florida in the early 1990s, and since it was a temporary situation he rented an apartment in North Miami Beach. Swanky development, high-end shops and restaurants in a new center a short walk nearby. But when I went to see him, walking around the area I could smell the sewage.
Low taxes (previously at least) plus growth = inadequate infrastructure and schools.
That’s why I prefer to live in an established neighborhood of older homes. And even then, you can’t be sure. Massive development in one area can cause flooding and drainage problems in another area adjacent.
“But when I went to see him, walking around the area I could smell the sewage…”
Everyone knows that sh!t flows downhill. Unfortunately in most of Florida there are no hills, so the stuff is collected in neighborhood “pump stations” and then pumped to the central treatment plant. Those pump station tanks have to be vented, so guess what you smell.
BTW, can you imagine the mess if a pressurized trunk line were to rupture!
“‘That’s what I have to do every morning in my $500,000 home,’ Estis said.”
That’s what you get for not buying a $1,000,000 home. Gee…what is wrong with you? Real estate only goes up. Why only spend $500,000 when the $1,000,000 one will go up in value twice as fast.
For this guy I *really* have no pity. The water pump is an easy to fix problem.
What an idiot. Here is what you do. Go outside and look at your water pump and relief valve. See what the relief valve is set at. Now go online and see which screw adjusts the water pressure upper limit and which sets the turn on pressure. I had a home in florida with a water pump… it took me 10 minutes from start to finish to bump up my water pressure 15 psig.
This isn’t the builders fault… All it takes is a little time to go out and turn the adjustment knob. I boosted my water pressure from a high of 40 and a low of 22 psig to a high of 55 and a low of 42. (Yea… pretty high pressure… but it was nice!) If you have a pump, you have a accumulator tank… so there will always be a fluctuation. Cest la vie. Its not like there aren’t two screw heads to adjust on every pump… And my relief valve, by code, was set at 58 psig.
These things come from the factory set at 30(high)/15(low). You lose 8 to 10 psi for an upstairs shower, so if this FB didn’t adjust it past the factory settings, he’ll get a weak show at the high pressure and practically nothing at the low pressure.
Got popcorn and internet access?
Neil
Probably a typical college educated idiot, else why would he have bought the place to begin with?
They have those low settings because of polybutylene (plastic) pipe. If you have copper or PVC you can boost it quite a bit. My mom had the same problem, but she had to have her pipes replaced before she could boost the pressure. Her house was an $80k manufactured house and she lived there 7 years before finishing the upstairs and adding the bathroom.
“They have those low settings because of polybutylene (plastic) pipe.”
I thought those were recalled or under some sort of class action lawsuit?
In FLA, PVC is manditory in most situations.
Oh, Neil. We are soooo far from the average joe knowing any damn thing about how the mechanical world works it’s just sad and laughable. We really have reached a point where life is a flashing VCR clock - nobody has any idea what to do.
There was a great piece in the paper a couple of years ago here about a multiday power outage. Neighbor A was talking to neighbor B over the fence while sipping tea. Neighbor B: How did you make tea with the power out?
Neighbor A: I’ve got a gas stove.
Neighbor B: So do I, but the stove won’t light without electric power.
Neighbor A: Matches.
Neighbor B: I didn’t think of that.
Thanks for ruining my keyboard.
Good one.
Neil:
does this work in older (100 yr old) homes as well? Because I have a really old home. water pressure inside is great but I hate the water pressure of the outside hose… it’s hard to water my lawn…
i’ll of course look it up when I get back from out of town next week…
cut the guy some slack, some of us are ignorant about homes… you can’t know everything!
I grew up San Francisco, thus in rented apartments. Then I became a college student. No chance to learn about houses then. Then I was a doctor, working 100+ hours per week. doesn’t leave much time for sleeping, much less learning house repairs on a house you don’t own!
(I’m learning slowly though)
I’m no expert, but if your water pressure inside is fine, it’s likely a combination of the following issues: a long “run” to the outside outlet, clogged or worn-out pipe and connections, inadequate venting. The easiest one to deal with is the second. I would try first taking off the outside valve (first tool a homewoner needs - a pipe wrench) - it likely needs to be replaced anyway - and perhaps trying to work backwards from there with a “snake.” Or just call a handyman-type plumber who is near your neighborhood - no reason to pay big bucks for this type stuff. You probably have naturally lower pressure at this outlet, and lower pressure and low overall usage would more easily allow clogs to form, thus compounding the problem. But I would guess it can probably be improved. (Also, buy good hoses.)
I cannot comment on that old of a home. But Paul had good ideas.
As a doctor working 100+ hours, you have an excuse. But the average schmo should learn about their house. It really isn’t that hard… (Then again, I was required to fix sinks at age 13… You break it, you fix it was the house rule.)
Jim A: Neighbor B sounds like someone who would blow up their own house! ROTFL. No hot food during a long blackout…
I have matches/lighters in the far back of a drawer just in case of such a blackout.
Got popcorn?
Neil
My dad had a good system for me, his daughter, when growing up. With my first car, when something broke like the brake pads wore out, he’d change the first one while I watched and I had to do the rest. I turned out to be a lawyer. Now while I’m happy to say I taught my husband to change our spark plugs, I now simply call “the guy” b/c it’s easier. So a plumber woulda hopefully known about this relief value $150 later I suppose.
BimmerRat
Water pressure was probably fine when he bought, but no one cut off the developers because the water supply was inadequate to handle all the construction. Greedy gov. at work here.
Oh, how true that is! The entire county I live in, and all the cities within it, depend entirely upon ground water for their drinking water. (Unless you buy it in little plastic bottles from the store.) Does this mean that this vitally important and finite resource we call ‘water’ is closely monitored for quality, that present and probable future availability are wisely considered? Carefully allocated?
Nope.
“One of the bank’s most problematic issues has been the large increase in nonperforming assets, or bad loans that are in default.”
Imagine that. I wonder how many liar’s loans they wrote.
“To take a shower in his new townhouse, Jeffrey Estis performs a complicated choreography.“…‘That’s what I have to do every morning in my $500,000 home,’ Estis said.”
But really, the most complicated thing he had to do…to take a shower in his $500,000 home…was sign the loan doc’s.
If you can’ take a shower..take a bath. Oh wait, bath water’s running…
“But really, the most complicated thing he had to do…to take a shower in his $500,000 home…was sign the loan doc’s.”
My guess is he doesn’t actually qualify for a $500K home…
“‘That’s what I have to do every morning in my $500,000 home,’ Estis said.”
Water is something we all have had the luxury of taking for granted…
Things Change
Gerber concluded the buyer could afford the increase.”
deals a deal
fck em
Lawsuit: A machine which you go into as a pig and come out of as a sausage.
Ambrose Bierce
“I can barely take a shower,’ Nicolosi said. ‘You call WCI, you get the royal runaround.”
Why do you need a shower when you already took a bath buying the place?
WCI didn’t plan on a lot of call backs because they didn’t think anyone would actually move into the development… built for continous flipping, not living.
ooo.. that cut to the bone.
The whole world is conned by Greenspan and his Wall Street cronies.
for your J boat http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/070712/071207_parkingspots.html?.v=4
also on history channel empire state and chrysler building 1929
“Hundreds of Miami-Dade County employees would be laid off and hundreds more vacant positions eliminated under a cost-cutting budget that Mayor Carlos Alvarez will announce today.”
It’s gonna totally suck for CSI fans if Horatio and crew get laid off!
I wonder if CSI Miami will start having plot lines such as gang wars in vacant foreclosed houses, guy jumping from 30th floor of condo he cannot sell hitting another jumper in same situation, real estate murder cover ups, bodies found in black water vacant pools, frustrated flippers burning down houses in area for insurance… I love all the ariel shots on this show of half finshed condo projects with big cranes stuck in the Miami skyline!
I used to live in sw florida. The wages in that area in NO WAY can support the purchase of a median priced home. This housing bubble is going to take floridas economy with it. Thank goodness I got out of florida back in 1998.
“The wages in that area in NO WAY can support the purchase of a median priced home. ”
Agreed if we’re talking about median prices. Those have remained very close to peak bubble. On the ground in real life however, homes are available in reasonably good areas under $250K now. That’s where affordablility starts to kick in. Unfortunately with the oversupply, we may drop far below affordable before we go back the other way. Affordable to most (that qualify based on traditional mortgage standards) is about $195,000.
With 20% down on a $195k house at 2.5 times income, you’d still have to make $62,500. Do most people make that there?
And what’s affordable when the market is rising is a lot different than what’s affordable if the market is falling. My attitude is that I’ll buy again when I feel confident that if I do basic repairs/maintenance with one or two improvements that I can resell quickly for at least what I paid, if necessary. In other words, doesn’t even have to be a good market, but I need to be fairly confident that there won’t be any more sharp downturns in price. Not there, except in places I don’t want to go.
If I remember correctly, Marina Grande mentioned in the first paragraph of this is on the mainland side of Riviera Beach next to the hood. Ever watch Cops, lots of RB episodes.
The City Side I remember was being built off Palm Beach Lakes Blvd on a former city owned golf course surrounded by commercial property (mostly retail) also close to the hood. You’d have to be a complete idiot to pay half a mil for anything in that area.
Marine Grande is one my favorites. Million dollar condos in a neighborhood (no exaggeration) where you could NEVER walk around outside without fear for your life. Doing it at night would be suicide, at 12 noon you probably have a 50/50 shot of making it where you are going.
City Side was supposed to pull people from City Place (a downtown development in WPB where I used to live that is very vacant) that could not afford the downtown lifestyle. PB Lakes (actually, anything off Village Blvd between PB Lakes and 45th st) is a relatively rough area. City Side will become a major slum; the homes are larger (2000 sq/ft townhomes) and the rental prices are very inexpensive (1250/mo), leading to an influx of lower class residents. Anyone who bought there, prepare to lose 50% at a minimum.
And then we come to my personal favorite (which you did not talk about, but I always do because I just love it so much), the Landmark at the Gardens, a high rise placed in the middle of a mall parking lot (nope, I am not kidding).
http://rentals.realtor.com/rentals/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=33410&ml=3&mnp=23&typ=40&sid=61338c201f094d3ca74fe89f1f89d0b9&pg=6&lid=1083661501&lsn=57&srcnt=130#Detail
12K a month to rent; 1-5M dollars to buy. Not oceanfront, not waterfront (although they tell you it is), not downtown… Not anything but a big a@@ highrise in a mall parking lot. Truly one of the great buildings of the bubble.
I suspect that these units will fall 80-90% by the time this is over (the Landmark). Those prices are just insane, the location stinks, and there is TONS of land all around that area to put up another high rise (at 1/10th the price), should there actually be demand to live in the mall parking lot.
“the Landmark at the Gardens”
That’s my favorite Mike. Thanks for reminding me! After the unit is 90% vacant the county will buy it and turn it into public housing.
Mike Fink -
How about those new developments on Congress Avenue between Blue Heron and Sand Beach Road in Riviera Beach. They were almost instant slums as soon as they were built. People were paying a quarter mil for a crappy little townhouse 2 or 3 years ago. They gated the one development, but have had a murder or two there since. I’m so glad I left PBC in 2005
“And Florida, he said, will be one of the states with the worst hemorrhaging.”
In the Tampa Bay area the housing patient has stopped hemorrhaging and has gone into cardiac arrest! The question now is how long will it take to revive the Florida housing patient?