Increasing Risks That The Market Could Move Lower
A report from the Arizona Republic. “Both median housing prices and the number of homes sold in June continued to fall throughout the Southeast Valley compared to a year ago and compared to May, according to Arizona State University’s Realty Studies. Compared to June 2006, Chandler’s prices fell the least, 2 percent to $288,000. Gilbert’s prices dropped the most, 10 percent, to $297,000.”
“‘June’s numbers are a little disappointing in being a little low,’ said Jay Butler, director.”
“He said the Phoenix area still has a high number of homes for sale, new home builders are aggressively wooing buyers with incentives like free pools and gift cards and lenders are tightening mortgage underwriting guidelines.”
“Gilbert: Sales fell to 315 from 330, while the price dropped to $297,000 from $330,000. The median price was $300,000 in May. Condo prices fell to $189,900 from $238,750.”
“Existing home and condominium prices in Scottsdale dropped in June compared to last year, and home sales fell 11 percent. Scottsdale’s median home price declined 4.26 percent to $612,750. Resale condo prices were off 5.6 percent to $249,900.”
“‘While the resale market is following a very traditional pattern, there are increasing risks that the market could move lower, driven by geopolitical risks and tighter mortgage underwriting guidelines,’ said Butler.”
“The Valley’s resale-home market in June continued to run below last year’s pace, according to ASU. About 4,910 homes sold in the month, down from 5,220 in May and 5,460 in the year-earlier period.”
“During the first half of 2007, 29,175 homes sold compared with 36,290 during the same stretch last year. That figure was well below the 58,030 resales during the first half of 2005.”
The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “Jill Lord’s Queen Creek neighborhood is often bustling with activity. ‘Everybody on the street is tight-knit,’ Lord said.”
“So home sellers working together to host a community-wide open house seems to be a natural fit for the more than 1,000-home Cortina subdivision.”
“Lord, whose home has sat on the market for three months now, is one of two dozen owners opening their doors to potential buyers on Saturday.”
“The Valley will likely see a growing number of homeowners combining efforts to host open houses, as the market continues to shift, said Arizona Association of Realtors president Frank Dickens.”
“‘When it starts to lean toward a buyers market, you’ll see all kinds of creativity,’ Dickens said.”
“Neighbors in Cortina, which sits near the southeast corner of Power and Germann roads, want to protect their home values by attracting people who have pride of ownership, said homeowners association secretary Tom Duford, who helped organize the event.”
“‘We have a lot of homes that are owned by investors, that are sitting vacant,’ Duford said. ‘The homes aren’t getting the care that this quality of neighborhood should have.’”
“During the housing boom, agents didn’t have to do much to promote homes, broker Brian Judy said. Now, ‘agents tend to be more willing to participate in one because everybody’s starving for buyers,’ he said.”
“Cortina homeowner Angie Beirdneau said she thinks the open house is a good idea and will be offering a special incentive of $10,000 off that day. More than 50 homes are for sale right now in Cortina, ranging in price from roughly $230,000 to $650,000, said Judy.”
In Business Las Vegas reports from Nevada. “The inventory of homes on the market swelled to an all-time high in June, but this time the jump was caused by a further slowdown in home sales.”
“There were 23,642 homes on the MLS at the end of June, an increase of 18 percent from June 2006, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.”
“The reason for the increase was the number of home purchases declined by 6 percent from May. Only 1,476 homes were sold in June, 42 percent below June 2006.”
“It appears more certain that sellers are beginning to understand they must cut their prices to sell their homes. June’s prices were 3 percent below June 2006. The median price of the new listings in June was $329,835, 2.5 percent below the May price and 5.5 percent less than homeowners asked for in June 2006.”
“Devin Reiss, president of the Realtors group, said…that if sellers are serious about selling their property, they should price it to the market.”
“Las Vegas housing analyst Dennis Smith said…he increase in inventory shows the bottom hasn’t been hit. ‘This is going to be a long process, and we aren’t going to pull out of this overnight,’ Smith said.”
“Major developers will likely have to wait until at least November 2008 for the next major land offering by the Bureau of Land Management. Since November 2005 when the BLM auctioned two large parcels in North Las Vegas, the land offerings have been sparse.”
“That will be the case again in November when the BLM plans to auction about 150 acres in scattered parcels of 2.5 acres to 20 acres in west Henderson and the south Las Vegas Valley. Henderson hasn’t had a major parcel auctioned since June 2004.”
“A year ago, the BLM said it would sit on the sideline if necessary and be more selective in the parcels it offers as part of a strategy to be more market-driven.”
“The BLM has drawn fire from some in the development and real estate industry for not releasing land on a regular basis to keep up with the growth and hold down its prices.”
“‘We can’t be willy-nilly and sell land if cities aren’t ready for that to happen. If there are no developers showing interest in the land, we would spend a lot of money for nothing to get ready for a sale,’ Juan Palma, the Las Vegas field manager for the BLM.”
“BLM auctions are prompted by nominations from area cities and Clark County. None have suggested the BLM auction those larger parcels, said Palma.”
“The housing industry won’t be disappointed if the BLM holds off on any major land auctions, said Monica Caruso, spokeswoman for the Southern Nevada Home Builders Association. With the housing downturn, builders have laid off employees and focused on selling their inventory rather than acquiring land, she said.”
“‘I think they recognize demand is not there at the moment, and it’s a wise decision,’ Caruso said.”
“Richard Lee, vice president of First American Title, said he doesn’t believe there would be any bidders right now for the larger parcels given the high inventory of homes on the market. No one could afford to sit on that land given the current demand for housing, he said.”
“North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon said there’s no reason to auction land at this time unless the BLM changed their practice and accepted bids for less than the appraised value. He said his city doesn’t nominate land unless buyers show interest.”
“No consideration has been given to Focus Property Group and its development of Inspirada, which opened model homes this year for its 13,500-unit project, said Henderson Community Development Director Bristol Ellington. But he acknowledges it will benefit Inspirada if any nearby development is delayed for now.”
“‘I know companies would like to see themselves established and ride out this economic slump before there is other competition, but at some point it helps to have healthy competition,’ Ellington said.”
The Lahontan Valley News from Nevada. “Now is a good time to buy a home, according to second quarter figures released by Bob Getto, a local Realtor and trustee for the Northern Nevada region of Multiple Listings Service.”
“‘The Fallon market seems to be bucking with the national trends,’ Getto said. ‘The sales prices are still fighting to stay level. It’s been the worst in a long time.’”
“The MLS data, encompassing April, May and June of this year, shows the median sales price for a residential, stick-built home located on 1.99 acres or less is $208,167. The all-time high for median sales occurred during the second quarter of 2006, when the average home cost $237,633. That’s compared to the first quarter of 2004, when the median price was $128,166.”
“Getto said some of the reasons for the drop in price and units sold is the lack of quality in the job market and that the California real estate market is also poor.”
“‘The California market seems to be sluggish, and people aren’t relocating to Fallon,’ Getto added. ‘We don’t have the California buyers looking to come here.’”
“After 57 units sold during the first quarter, that figure dropped to 49 in the second quarter, continuing a decline dating back to the second quarter in 2005 when 99 units were sold.”
“Getto doesn’t envision any change for the rest of the year. ‘The rest of the summer is going to be sluggish,’ he said. ‘We need the Californian and Western economies to increase.’”
“Getto said the hottest homes to buy have been in the $200,000 range with 1,200 to 1,400 square feet located in town. ‘Those tend to be selling the best, but nothing is really moving well,’ Getto added.”
“For sellers, pricing your home correctly is the big goal. ‘Pricing is the key right now, and it has to be priced competitively,’ Getto said.”
Long-time readers will remember that one of the last big BLM auctions came in at roughly half of previous sales in the area.
Here is the the ASU report:
‘Much like the ever-increasing sales activity of the last few years, the rapid improvement in prices has disappeared. The Scottsdale resale home market declined from 465 to 415 recorded sales, along with the median sales price decreasing from last year’s $640,000 to $612,750.’
‘the Sun City resale market improved from 75 to 115 sales, while the median sales price decreased to $185,000 from $215,000. Resale activity in Sun City West remained at 45 sales, the median sales price decreased from $258,950 to $217,500.’
‘Avondale fell from 120 to 90 sales with the median price moving from $259,050 to $239,000. El Mirage decreased from 80 to 60 sales, while the median home price went from $215,000 to $195,500.’
“‘While the resale market is following a very traditional pattern, there are increasing risks that the market could move lower, driven by geopolitical risks and tighter mortgage underwriting guidelines,’ said Butler.”
Geopolitical risks?!?
I guess he wants to cover all the bases.
LOL. Tough to be broader than that. Guess he could have mentioned the climate.
“Geopolitical risks?!? ”
I think we’s referring to areas of the valley. A lot of the new development went up in areas that are a significant (for PHX) commute. Areas like Queen Creek, Maricopa, Anthem, and Surprise are twice as far from downtown as many other areas where a significant number of homes are for sale.
If you’re out in an outlyng area, you’re toast.
In the Southwest, illegal immigration could be considered a geopolitical risk.
Nuclear war maybe.
The Mexican panzer divisions blitzing up after besieging Tuscon…
Geopolitical risks?!?
He must be referring to the local area politicians and how they plan to pay for the infrastructure services that they’ve already contracted for. That means that as home values go down, property taxes go up. Here in Salinas this past week the local police are out in force everywhere writing tickets for 5 miles over the limit. Loved it yesterday. They camped out at the turn in to WalMart and pulled them into the Costco parking lot to write the tickets. And why not? The starting salary for local law enforcement with safety retirement and no college starts somewhere around $60K.
“‘We have a lot of homes that are owned by investors, that are sitting vacant,’ Duford said. ‘The homes aren’t getting the care that this quality of neighborhood should have.’”
Well, since you’re having Community Open Houses, why not pool your money for some community yard work? Or, even better, have a weekend WORK party!
My neighborhood had a work party a couple of months ago. Only a handful of people showed up to help. And this is in a neighborhood where complaining about the neighborhood is a major life activity for many people.
Yes, this place isn’t perfect. And it frequently gets on my nerves too. But I’d rather not just sit around and complain. That’s why I joined the aforementioned work party.
Arizona Slim,
That’s classic. Here in NYC, I use a neighborhood dog run–during the day, easily more than a hundred dogs and their owners are in and out. Every six months, there’s a cleanup day. The same 8 or 9 folks show up every time, and the rest vanish til late afternoon.
There’s probably some universal percentage of complainers vs. doers.
Same here. The wife & I go to a park over by Dodger stadium with our dog a lot and it’s often utterly littered with waste. Every third or fourth time over there we’ll grab an extra bag or two and pick up 50+ deposits on our walks, and attend the occasional clean-up days, but I think we must be one of ten people who do such things there, and there are thousands of people using the park… {Sigh}
And I love the name of that Realtor. Bob Ghetto? Ha!
It is very funny.
“‘While the resale market is following a very traditional pattern, there are increasing risks that the market could move lower, driven by geopolitical risks and tighter mortgage underwriting guidelines,’ said Butler.”
Yes, indeed: trouble in the Middle East and unrest in Africa does have a direct impact on the real estate market in Scottsdale. Good call.
We’ve moved away a bit from “all real estate is local”, haven’t we?
Well, if you saw some of the ‘cougars’ roaming around Scottsdale, it does remind one of Africa.
“Cortina homeowner Angie Beirdneau said she thinks the open house is a good idea and will be offering a special incentive of $10,000 off that day. More than 50 homes are for sale right now in Cortina, ranging in price from roughly $230,000 to $650,000, said Judy.”
How wonderful for the close-knit group of sellers. I wonder what will happen when the lone prospect comes in and uses the opportunity to have the desperate sellers bid each other down to see how low it can go. Think a little tension might develop between these competitors-turned-allies, when MONEY is concerned?
…“It appears more certain that sellers are beginning to understand they must cut their prices to sell their homes. …
Wouldn’t they just be shooting themselves in their feet??
“Now is a good time to buy a home, according to second quarter figures released by Bob Getto, a local Realtor and trustee for the Northern Nevada region of Multiple Listings Service.
Yet another brilliant choice of quote from a realtor. When was the last time a realtor said that it was NOT a good time to buy a home?
“‘The Fallon market seems to be bucking with the national trends,’ Getto said. ‘The sales prices are still fighting to stay level. It’s been the worst in a long time.’”
Ah Fallon! Home to the Naval Air Station, Alfalfa farms, the old whore house in a modular home out on Route 50 and not much else :> Although, if you’re an artillery enthusiast, the Army fires off hundreds of shells every week that rock the valley all night long.
Here’s a rule of thumb if you’re looking to relocate to NNV -everything east of the 395 corridor (Reno/Sparks/Carson/Gardnerville/Minden) is where you go to make drugs or become the next Ted Kaczynski. And as for Fallon, besides being a major hell-hole, the water-tabel is tainted with jet fuel with cancer-clusters galore. Trust me, you can find far superior places to live in theis country where the median home price is much lower.
Places like Fallon, Fernley, Silver Springs, Stagecoach, and Yerington are hellholes. Those places are going to crash and burn. The prices paid for land and homes at the peak will never be seen again. It’s insanity.
Where the white PVC mineral maker pipe is the state tree.
Stick a fort in Phoenix to see if it is done?? Yep. The market is DONE!!!!! 11 months of houses on the market. Listings up and transactions down. Prices poised to fall like a rock…
From CNBC’s reality check, a Realtor says…
“And the true irony of the whole pathetic situation is the buying public’s reluctance to jump into this market and make the best home deals of their lives now that they have the selling public and homebuilders just where they want them - on their knees crying, begging, and pleading their broken hearts out!! My God, it’s unbelievable, Diana! Buyers have been moaning and groaning and complaining non-stop in past years about skyrocketing home prices and the greed of sellers and homebuilders, and now that these same sellers and homebuilders are beside themselves with grief and sorrow and are willing to do almost anything to sell their homes, the same buyers are just standing there with their thumbs in their ears like imbeciles waiting for the invisible bottom to hit them in their thick skulls!! It is absolute insanity out there!! The dreams of homeownership have been committed to the funny farm. It is now a field of tears. ”
1) Buyers have selelrs where they want them, but the sellers haven’t or can’t wake up to reality. Prices are only off 10%. Buyers are going to continue to wait until prices are off 50%.
2) Prices doubled over a 3 year period of time, and they expect people not already in the market, to jump in now that prices are off 10%?
3) It seems the Realtors believed their own lies that price don’t drop. Hello realtors. Check 2002 prices and adjust up for inflation. Lookers aren’t turning into buyers until prices are back at that level.
4) Field of tears now? With 10% off? OHHHHHH, just wait!!!!
“….. the same buyers are just standing there with their thumbs in their ears like imbeciles waiting for the invisible bottom to hit them in their thick skulls!!” Not a very professional assesment of the situation. Why would anyone buy now when they know the value will continue to decrease? Affordability is a huge issue.
Prices are still way too high for most people.
Buyer beware!
I actually love to hear the underlying frustration there. Most buyers simply cannot afford to buy at todays asking prices, so given sellers are unwilling to lower prices the issue is pretty much moot.
I don’t get it either…
Price to income is still very far out of whack.
Oh… its not my thumbs in my ears. Its industrial ear plugs (you know, the orange ones with the blue chord). Very effective and comfortable. I have no patience for people who don’t recognize afford ability…
Nor the fact there are more bedrooms per person in this nation than ever before…
A small downturn and they’re “begging and crying…” No… They would still make a profit for most of them.
Another week… another bottom.
The real bottom? Not before 2009. Some will say later… Let’s have that debate… in late 2008.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Hey Neil! I hear they are growing more corn than ever in Iowa. Is that a sign?
What he doesn’t realize is that the buyers who were “moaning and groaning and complaining non-stop in past years about skyrocketing home prices and the greed of sellers and homebuilders” are the same ones who are now “beside themselves with grief and sorrow and are willing to do almost anything to sell their homes”. Sucks to get whipsawed.
The ones standing on the sidelines are on this blog. Who is the imbecile again?
Hey Darrell,
OT, but how’s it going with the sale of your house? Have there been showings? Offers?
The Russians are coming (to help us)!
My spam filter just caught this one (I think they should work a little bit on their packaging and replace their “.ru” with a “.com” URL):
“Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 16:43:58 +0000
From: delois4shari6@nsk.ru
To: “Danny Burns” (followed by my email address)
Subject: Re: Thank you for your loan request, we are ready to lend money regardless of Credit
Credit score doesn’t matter to us!
If you OWN property and want IMMEDIATE pin money to spend ANY way you like, or simply need to LOWER your entire payment by a third or more, here is the deal we can offer you TONIGHT (hurry, this lot will expire THIS EVENING:
$370,000+ debt
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Sounds like it’s time for a new Bond remake:
From Russia, With Fraud
I’m surprised our Nigerian friends haven’t cashed in on this one yet, something along the lines of:
“Hello, I’m a Nigerian Investment banker. I have been tasked with re-investing our glorious nations oil-riches. We are currently investing in real estate and can offer refinancing of your mortgage at its present rate (even if your rate is resetting soon). In addition to this, we’re offering a 20% cash-out as long as you have owned your house for more than 8 months. Please fill out the enclosed from with SSN, bank account number and your full name and address. In most cases we can transfer the cash-out portion of your new mortgage to your bank account within 5 business days from receiving your application.
Yours sincerely,
Bongo Mombassa
Chief Investment Banker”
… I guess they have done a cost-benifit analysis and concluded that even though most FBs would fall for this, there wouldn’t be any money to siphon out of his bank account.
Just to add to the most current thing, have been ridiculously busy lately, but for all of you wishing the “Hedgie and Bank pig men” ill will (fyi, i disagree that they’re all evil as I believe many of them serve a valid role of providing liquid markets and efficient distribution of capital but I’m certainly not impartial for obvious reasons), I am seeing alot more than announced taking exceptionally defensive manuevering suggesting some massive losses (moving greater than 50 percent of capital infunds that previously did not use them into sidepockets, implementing gating stretching out over 6 quarters, etc). Tis going to be a sad few months for some.
“June’s numbers are a little disappointing in being a little low,’ said Jay Butler, director.”
Yes, having sale prices drop is a little disappointing. Try telling that to smart wanna-be homebuyers with good credit & income and are responsible with their debts.
“June’s numbers are a little disappointing in being a little low,’ said Jay Butler, director.”
You’ll be begging for these numbers in a few years, Jay.
Yeah, what’s with Jay Butler? He’s disappointed? For whom? The realtors not making a commission or that prices don’t continue to go up? Does he want affordability again? Does he work for ASU or the realtors? I had thought he was an impartial observer, but it appears not.
I need some opinions on this:
There is a house in Chandler that I’m interested in. It was purchased by an investor in 4/2005 for $510, and has been vacant for 6 months (not sure who lived there before that - maybe renters?).
I called the realtor selling it and one of the first things she said is “it will need some work - a new kitchen and other updating”.
Now since almost everyone knows that 2005 was the peak of the AZ housing market, I would assume that the price is DOWN from $510, especially since even the selling realtor talks about the property’s flaws.
But - here’s the insanity - the “investors” are asking $675!!! Is it even possible to make an offer on this house without wasting my time? I’m thinking in the $380 range. These are out of state “investors” that own 4 or 5 other AZ properties from what I can glean from the county asssessor and recorder sites.
Should I just make an offer and let them react? I may tour the house with a realtor this weekend - I’m going to be very blunt about the market and my personal valuation of the property the whole time we are there.
I can’t imagine the owners are so delusional that they would expect a 30%+ return in this market for a property that they have done no improvements to. If they can get out with only a 25% loss from 2005 highs like I’m offering them it may be their best opportunity - take the money and invest in something else.
My guess is they’re hoping to trap someone into thinking they’re getting a “deal” if they offer $575k.
Like the rug shop that advertises that their rugs are “30% off” — and they let you haggle them down another 10% — and they’re still getting 4 times what they paid wholesale for a cheap, imitiation oriental rug. (have you ever seen an oriental rug sture that didn’t have banner advertising huge savings and/or liquidation?)
Or maybe they’re just nuts. I’d say just keep your eye on it and see if their tactics manage to entrap someone else.
I understand what you’re saying and maybe that’s their plan. But the fact is that unlike the rug seller I can easily see what they paid and when they paid it for this house, and even their mortgage situation ($408 first and $40 heloc both from 2005). They must really be waiting for their wide-eyed sucker.
Depending on how the walk-through goes I think I will make an “offer to make an official offer” for $380 and just let it sit. If somebody else comes along at $600 or even $675 then good for them. But after six months on market - and oh yeah - with two offers that have already fallen through because of the buyer unable to get financing (sound familiar?), I really doubt they will get anything close to their wishing price.
If these people are really investors they will know that sometimes you lose and take your remining capital elsewhere. Anybody want to talk about losing money on Worldcom stock with me?
Yeah, my sister lost $52K on WCOM… and she works there.
Dude, LOWBALL them. You don’t have to be snide or snippy when you do it, I can’t imagine you’d be like that anyway. But go in low. And you don’t even have to lay it out there to the realtor officially. Just be like: “Yes, there really is an amazing amount of inventory out there, what are we at now, nearly 12 months her in Arizona? Yes, builders keep building and ADDING to that inventory. Yes, interest rates are up 75 bps over the last few months. Yes, the REAL U.S. mortgage rate (mortgage rate MINUS y/y existing house price change = 6.7% - (-1.3%) = 8.3%) is at a 20 year high. Yes, the owners of this house own four other properties. And did you see retail sales figures today? They were down! And oil’s now at $77 a barrell? Hmmm. Well, I don’t know, but 675m sounds like it’s about 350m more than I’m willing to pay.” Then see what the realtor says. Either way you’ve communicated some really key stuff to her. And of course she doesn’t have to take you seriously. But that’s the point. You are yet another person telling her that her client is an a$$hole for listing the property at 675m for reasons we can all see quite clearly.
Anyway, you’ll figure it out. Good luck.
Go ahead and make the offer. It’s doubtful they’d accept it, but it’s still good for the market in that it’ll soften them up for the next guy. I’d be scared to buy anything in AZ right now. AZ has always been known for affordable housing, and I suspect prices are going to get hammered going forward. Also, can you share a link or the mls # ? I’d like to take a look at the listing.
The reason I’d like to look at the listing is a family member of mine just sold a beautiful 4/3 in an established neighborhood in 85226 about 4 months ago.
90% of the Tucson listings are this kind of insanity. Bought 2 or 3 times since 2003, now listed at 25% over whatever the last greedhead flipper paid for it in 2005. I will never give a cent to one of these “investors” unless I know they’re losing lots of money on the deal. We are likely moving elsewhere (currently renting here), due to this situation.
The problem with moving somewhere else: the bubble is everywhere! There’s no escaping it. The only thing one can do is find an area where rents are affordable as compared to jobs. This bubble really is a nightmare. You’re not alone in your frustration. It’s pretty sickening what’s become of shelter in this country. Hard to find an affordable place to hang ones hat at night.
TOO DAMN MUCH. Anything that was $510K in 2005 will be $250K or less in 08/09. Why buy that falling knife???
I can’t imagine paying $500k for a house. I think $300k is exorbitant.
My guess is they’re hoping to trap someone into thinking they’re getting a “deal” if they offer $575k.
Like the rug shop that advertises that their rugs are “30% off” — and they let you haggle them down another 10% — and they’re still getting 4 times what they paid wholesale for a cheap, imitiation oriental rug. (have you ever seen an oriental rug sture that didn’t have banner advertising huge savings and/or liquidation?)
Or maybe they’re just nuts. I’d say just keep your eye on it and see if their tactics manage to entrap someone else.
Whoops - meant this as a response to az_owner above.
“There were 23,642 homes on the MLS at the end of June, an increase of 18 percent from June 2006, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.”
“The reason for the increase was the number of home purchases declined by 6 percent from May. Only 1,476 homes were sold in June, 42 percent below June 2006.”
-24% turnaround This equates to 16+ months of inventory, not counting the fact that June is one of the busier months to buy/sell a home. Las Vegas is going to take a long time to recover. They are still building condos like its cool (City Center etc) I think was are talking about 2011-2012 for normal price appreciation to come back.
Methinks someone’s bad at math.
Without getting out my calculator - if 23k is an 18% increase, that means about 4k more homes are on the market than last year.
If 1,476 houses sold, and that’s 42% below last year, that means about 600 less sold.
From where comes the difference of 3,400 homes? In other words, it ain’t the one-month decrease in sales that caused the increase in inventory. It’s the multi-year decrease in sales that’s causing it, combined with the panic of owners with near-zero, zero, or negative equity trying to get out while the gettin’s good.
I’ve determined that most realtors ™ never passed Algebra much less trig or pre-calc.
And its only Algebra for Ax+b=Y. But does it take pre-calc or calc to understand these trends? Not the math… But knowing some higher math to see the pattern?
As to that multi-year decrease in sales… 50%! And declining…
2008… is going to be too interesting. I’m happy to see prices decline… I’m not happy at the economic spanking that’s going to take to BK good friends of mine. Oh well… Cest la vie.
Got popcorn?
Neil
“Only 1,476 homes were sold in June”
ONLY, ONLY, I sit here and wonder where they got these 1476 Darwinian rejects to buy. I understand someone wanting to sell but I sure don’t understand those that feel that urge to buy, especially right now and in LV.
lol…Darwinian!
Here’s a thought….some of these sales aren’t getting reported in the appropriate month. I saw some of this monkey business where I live…and I actually saw 3 pendings marked closed, only to know that one of them never really closed, and it was BOM immediately. I don’t buy all these officious looking figures…too many Darwinians at the wheel.
Las Vegas is going to take a long time to recover.
Try 20+ years, if even then. The only hope for LV is a huge price crash that makes the place attractive to retirees again, since they’ll be loads of boomers retiring soon.
Let me clarify…
By “huge price crash” I mean a median well *below* $100K. I already expect LV to become one big ghost town once you get outside downtown and the strip. Excluding tourism (which doesn’t pay) the biggest industry there is — soon to be “was” — growth.
I already expect LV to become one big ghost town once you get outside downtown and the strip.
I wonder if, in the future, the government will fund programs to bulldoze the acres of stucco crap and “put back the desert”?
That would be kind of cool.
““Neighbors in Cortina. . . want to protect their home values by attracting people who have pride of ownership, said homeowners association secretary Tom Duford, who helped organize the event.”
Wow, sounds really desperate.
“‘We have a lot of homes that are owned by investors, that are sitting vacant,’ Duford said. ‘The homes aren’t getting the care that this quality of neighborhood should have.’”
They sort of are getting the care that “this quality of neighborhood should have.” You move into this remote Pinal County/Queen Creek outpost and are shocked that quality of life issues have arisen. Speaking as someone who lives in the innermost ring of the fringe suburbs, I expected there to be trade-offs. But even I drew the line about leaving Maricopa County, which itself has an area of over 9,000 square miles. Unless you work for the DOC or the county itself (or are retired), you have no business moving to Pinal County, Arizona.
according to Arizona State University’s Realty Studies. Compared to June 2006, Chandler’s prices fell the least, 2 percent to $288,000. Gilbert’s prices dropped the most, 10 percent, to $297,000.”
“‘June’s numbers are a little disappointing in being a little low,’ said Jay Butler, director.”
This guy’s supposed to be an academic economist? No impartial commentator would say the numbers are “disappointing”. These university real estate departments are a complete joke, all shills.
Priceless realtor quotes
“‘When it starts to lean toward a buyers market, you’ll see all kinds of creativ ity,’ Dickens said.”
Lean??? Lean? What is this leaning of which you speak? How abo ut, oh, I dunno, crashing? imploding? immolating?
‘The Fallon market seems to be bucking with the national trends,’ Getto said. ‘T he sales prices are still fighting to stay level. It’s been the worst in a long time.’”
“bucking with the national trends” Does this mean it’s bucking the trend and st aying high or, what it sounds like, bucking down along that bumpy road to ruin a long with the national trends.
‘The sales prices are still fighting to stay level. It’s been the worst in a lon g time.’”
What is it about the home market that makes low prices automatically globally detested? Most retailers (cars, jewelry, furniture) constantly crow about their low, low prices
“Now is a good time to buy a home…”
What is good about buying now if not the low, low prices?
Sheesh…
I apologize for that…
Are they gone yet?
I got it. Thanks for the email.