Back To Reality In Florida
The News Journal reports from Florida. “The wave of home foreclosures washing across the nation is making itself painfully apparent in the Volusia-Flagler area, with huge increases in the number of cases filed this year in the circuit courts of both counties. ‘Half the people coming to see me are just walking away from their houses,’ said the lawyer, Walter J. Snell of Daytona Beach.”
“Stretched homeowners did file Chapter 13 bankruptcy to get a breather on their debts, said Snell. Now, their finances are too far gone to try.”
“In the first six months of this year, 1,669 foreclosure suits were filed in Volusia County, more than twice the 774 filed in the first half of 2005, about the time the real-estate boom crested. The total cases filed in the first half of last year was 893.”
“Flagler County appears to be even harder-hit. There were 569 foreclosures filed there as of Friday compared with 450 in all of last year and 216 the year before.”
“‘We see more short sales and rushes to sell in Palm Coast…because it was built up faster,’ said John J. Adams of the area’s biggest real-estate agency.”
“Snell, the bankruptcy lawyer, said: ‘A lot of it, I’m seeing in Palm Coast. People are telling me, ‘I can’t sell it for what I paid.’”
The St Petersburg Times. “As investors struggle in a cooling real estate market, Riverview has become one of the nation’s top areas for foreclosure filings.”
“Lenders are dealing with increasing numbers of people who can’t pay their mortgages. The problem: a combination of 100 percent mortgages and falling home values.”
“‘It’s unfortunate that people bought their houses at inflated prices,’ said Valerie Siger, a mortgage broker in Riverview. ‘Right now, they’re in trouble.’”
“Already this year, lenders have filed 3,573 foreclosure actions in Hillsborough County, according to the clerk of the Circuit Court. That’s more than twice the number of foreclosure suits that had been filed during the same period in 2006.”
“For some, refinancing is an option, she said. Others are being forced to sell. ‘It doesn’t surprise me,’ said Doug Skeggs, a mortgage broker in Riverview. ‘People bought their homes without putting anything down.’”
“Now, some homeowners are stuck with rapidly increasing adjustable-rate mortgages that they can’t afford, he said.”
“‘It’s the same thing that’s happening all over,’ said Horace Morgan, who owns a realty and mortgage business in Brandon and offers credit counseling. ‘In the Riverview area, there are lots of new developments. There were lots of builders there. They were giving new incentives to Realtors and to buyers, including discounts for using their lenders.’”
“The major problems, Morgan said, stem from the ‘creative loans’ buyers secured during the boom, which required less documentation and fewer qualifications. ‘They got their loans in the first place through creativity,’ he said. ‘Now they’re back to reality.’”
The Herald Tribune. “The number of homes being foreclosed on in Southwest Florida keeps growing. The three-county region logged 848 foreclosure actions in June, reports RealtyTrac, more than three times as many as the 202 in June 2006.”
“Charlotte County had 153 foreclosure actions in June, up from 29 a year ago. Manatee had 256 in June, up from 120 a year ago, while Sarasota had 439, up from 53 in June 2006, RealtyTrac said.”
“In Florida, there were 21,035 foreclosure actions in June, up 144 percent from last year.”
The Palm Beach Post. “Because of the severe housing market decline, St. Lucie County is in recession, a leading economist told Florida home building industry leaders Wednesday. ‘Housing-related jobs are a major source of employment in Port St. Lucie,’ said Mark Zandi, senior economist for Moody’s economy.com.”
“Zandi told the group that, as home sales went into a nosedive in Port St. Lucie, one of the nation’s hottest home-building markets during the 2001-05 boom, so did housing-related employment. ‘I’m talking about Realtors, finance people, sales people,’ he said, ‘not just construction workers.’”
“‘This is not a happy talk,’ he said. ‘Housing starts peaked in 2005. In Florida, the downdraft has been more severe. Home sales in Florida will be lucky to get 10,000 this year.’”
“Florida has two big problems, Zandi said: too much inventory and low affordability. ‘It’s impossible to argue that the bottom is at hand,’ he said. ‘It’s at least a year away.’”
From TC Palm. “It’s a buyer’s market these days when it comes to boats. First-quarter numbers indicate boat sales could be down as much as 38 percent when projected out over the year in St. Lucie County alone.”
“‘Business has been terrible,’ said George Field, president of the Marine Industries Association of the Treasure Coast.”
“The result has created a stockpile for area boat dealers, and that has had an effect on manufacturers, too, according to Field. ‘Dealers have backed off on new orders substantially,’ Field said. ‘It’s created a cascading effect on the entire industry.’”
“Field said problems in the real estate market are having a ripple effect on boat sales. Bob Adkins, a Sea Swirl factory representative for Genmar Corp., agrees.”
“‘Those guys who lay block, do drywall, plumbing and electric work are the same guys who buy a lot of boats all across the Treasure Coast and don’t mind spending $300 for gas to go fishing on the weekend,’ said Adkins. ‘Those guys now aren’t working because of the housing slowdown. That is the problem in a nutshell.’”
“Brandon Brescia, a Boynton Beach firefighter, said the buzz about the River Place development spread around the firehouse in 2005. More than half a dozen other firefighters invested in up-and-coming St. Lucie County. Brescia joined them, putting nearly $50,000 down for two townhomes in the River Place subdivision called Hawk’s Ridge.”
“During those real estate boom times, more than 200 other deposits poured into Sullivan Homes from both in and out of state, either 5 percent or 10 percent down on homes that sold for an average of $216,000 each.”
“Today, in a bearish housing market with experts declaring St. Lucie County in a real estate recession, Kevin Sullivan has not constructed a single townhouse in three of the five River Place subdivisions where he planned to build.”
“As litigation continues, Sullivan said he cannot, at this time, refund the deposit money, which has been ‘exhausted’ in building capital and efforts to save a deal from turning sour.”
“‘It’s extremely regrettable that all these things happened simultaneously with the real estate industry taking the biggest downturn it’s taken in 15 to 20 years,’ Sullivan said.”
“He said ‘50 or 60 percent’ of his buyers still want to go forward. ‘It’s a great value. It’s a great neighborhood,’ he said. ‘It’s still a really good investment.’”
From ABC News. “Not long ago the only thing going up faster than buildings in Miami was the prices, and Lucy Blanco wanted in.”
“‘It was going up so rapidly that I was fearful that if it went any higher I could not afford it anymore,’ she said. ‘So I needed to get it while it was still at a price I could afford…before it went out of my range.’”
“‘If we don’t hurry up and buy something now,’ she said, ‘we’re never going to be able to buy anything.’”
“In February 2006, Blanco bought a preconstruction one-bedroom unit in a condo community called Quantum on the Bay. She paid $465,000. Today, however, Blanco estimates the property is worth $100,000 less than what she agreed to pay.”
“The condo has lost more than the value of Blanco’s $93,000 deposit. And so, just as fast as Blanco wanted in, she now wants out.”
“Michael Schlesinger is at the forefront of a new subspecialty in Miami real estate law, that might be called condo extractors. He said he gets 20 or more calls a week from people like Blanco. ‘They’re all asking the same questions,’ he said. ‘Can I get out? Do I have a chance to get my deposit back? If not, what are my options?’”
“Schlesinger said he looks for a flaw in the condo contract, a blocked view, a change of design, delayed construction, anything about the new building that allows him to argue the developer isn’t delivering on what was promised.”
“He only takes on a few new cases a week, the ones he thinks he can win. ‘Most of the time, unfortunately, I have [to] say that the contracts are too tight,’ he said. ‘There’s not much I can do, and the options are either you close or you leave your deposit on the table.’”
“Schlesinger said greed played a huge role in Miami’s current situation.’I think two years ago people were making hundreds of thousands of dollars doing exactly what they’re asking me to get them out of today,’ he said.”
“Blanco is convinced she’s not getting the square footage she paid for. She’s enlisted an architect to measure her floor plans. ‘It’s wrong,’ she said. ‘It’s not what I purchased. I paid a lot of money for that. I want every square foot of it, because I paid for it. I’m entitled to it.’”
“‘I can’t think of any other area of investing,’ said Steven Landy, a lawyer who represents other developers, ‘where if it doesn’t go your way… you say, oops, it didn’t work out, now I want my money back.’”
“Blanco said she has learned ‘lots of lessons. Never put so much money in a preconstruction. I would never do that again,’ she said.”
“Retired businessman Tom Leon bought two condo units two years ago for $500,000 each, hoping to flip them for quick profit. Today, as the buildings near completion, Leon is certain he couldn’t he even get $400,000 for each of the units, so he’s decided to cut his losses and walk away from $200,000 in deposits rather than pay the $800,000 balance he now thinks is a bad investment.”
“‘Nobody wants to lose a hundred grand,’ he said. ‘Once in a while you’ve got to be smart enough…to leave when the time is right and I think now is the time.’”
“‘It was going up so rapidly that I was fearful that if it went any higher I could not afford it anymore,’ she said. ‘So I needed to get it while it was still at a price I could afford…before it went out of my range.’”
Infamous last words. Do you think she was listening to a realtor? If so, perhaps she should add him or her to her lawsuit.
If she really could afford it then she should close and stay in the condo for the next 10 years. After all, if the condo prices went up higher she could not afford it.
The best thing is to say goodbye to the 93k deposit and not spend good money after the bad by hiring architects & lawyers… these cost money too, ya know.
And it was fine with her to specuvest in a rinky dink 1 bedroom for $465,000 with $100,000 down because everyone knows real estate always goes up. But a freak event happened…”they” must have made more land. So she does not want to be responsible for her loss. Well boo hoo! This is only another example of how childish American adults have become in a couple of generations. Spoiled. And February 2006 she bought this? There were enough reports out at that time that Florida’s bubble was bursting! Sheesh! Did Lucy ever hear of the real estate bust of the 1920s in Florida? Hope she enjoys the little 1 bedroom for the next 25 years. Because maybe by then she will break even. And PITI payments will probably have totaled about $1,000,000 by then for that postage stamp.
“childing American adults”
Uh, Bill? I’m goin’ out on a limb here and make a couple of assertions about Lucy:
1. She ain’t American. Miami isn’t America. It’s Latin America. Chock full o’ Latino nationals trying to escape property seizure in the Socialist Sud America.
2. That $93K she had? Uh, she didn’t pay any taxes on that. You and I pay those things.
3. She bought this to live in? Uh, think again. Most oceanside condo buildings in this region are glorified timeshares. She planned on bilking some rich New Yawker for $4000 a month every winter while she dodged American taxes.
Saw this on Nightline the other night and the commentator asked her if she would be suing if the price had gone up 100k. She said no, because then her condo would be worth more per square foot.
Famous last words. I bet the courts are laughing. They probably know the true reason she is suing *rolleyes*
Hey Tom, that’s TWO hundred grand.
eh…. pocket change for a wannabe Donald Trump.
It was all his 401(k) money anyway - not like he was ever going to see that when he retired.
LOL
I wonder what’s happening in the Keys now that Miami has finally started to tank hard. The Keys buyers weren’t local so the lack of re-fi/heloc money available has to be crushing the market down there.
Home insurance is the crushing blow there. Puh-lenty of For Sale signs along Route 1 down there.
the keys is beyond toasty. there is no buyers heading that way, especially with hurricane season in full swing. it is a great place to visit, but worth the investment.
monroe county bring workers in on buses all the way to marathon from homestead just to fill jobs at retail stores!
The market in the Keys is really being hit hard. But, I think the market in the Keys may recover a little bit faster than the rest of Florida, because it really is a truely unique area. Permitting time is measured in years for Monroe County because of extremly tight environmental regulations. So, builders couldn’t go as crazy in Monroe building thousands of units like they did all over the rest of Florida.
I know that many hotels and restraunts in the Lower Keys are still having a very hard time finding workers, as they can’t bus them in from Homestead like is done in Key Largo and the Upper Keys.
“I know that many hotels and restraunts in the Lower Keys are still having a very hard time finding workers, as they can’t bus them in from Homestead like is done in Key Largo and the Upper Keys.”
Wow, here’s an opportunity for a new sort of migrant worker. Instead of picking lettuce, you can follow the seasonal resorts.
Some of the condos my girlfriend and I looked at 6 months ago are down 30%
“I have [to] say that the contracts are too tight”
why is everything to the builders advantage?
S and L disaster all over again?
on my lease everything is to my LL’s advantage.
my only advantage is i get to move out.
step right up and take your losses!
On most lease agreements, the Title an the top should read “The Bend-Over Tenant Agreement.”
I am in the same boat, as a renter, but I don’t know how badly I can hammer the landlords. Being a landlord is a very risky proposition. All it takes is one bad tenant to trash a place, or stop paying rent, and that landlord will never see even a fraction of the funds it took to repair the damage or lost in unpaid rent. I worked with somebody that had rental houses on the Outer Banks of NC. He was getting about $900 per month rent. When the tenant moved out it cost him $16,000 to repair all of the damage they had done to the place. There was no recourse to get any back. People without assets, which renters often are, can’t pay back large sums.
If you are an honest landlord you should deserve quite a bit of protection. I would guess many people on this blog might try their hands at being a landlord in the coming years. I hope you have good contracts that protect you. I hope you also treat your tenants with the respect they deserve if they are good tenants. But just remember the tenant can screw the landlord a lot harder than the landlord can screw the tenant.
I agree with this. I was a landlord some years back. Everything was fine until the tenants moved out and I discovered they had pretty much trashed the place.
My dad used to be a landlord when I was a little boy and those tenants were always trashing the place. He was losing a little each year and gave up in a few years.
Here’s something that I’ve noticed recently in NOVA: landlords are trying to saddle tenants with the cost of property maintenance. Some leases state that the tenant is responsible for all repairs under a certain amount (usually $100). It isn’t universal, so renters still have some choice. I’m wondering if this is common elsewhere, because I never saw it before coming to NOVA.
The renter has the freedom to choose another property to rent. I am a renter. I am not a victim. I have never been a victim. I don’t want to even begin to portray myself as a victim the way the FBs portray themselves as victims. As a renter I have a lot of freedom. If somebody tries to stick it to me, I will just move to the next property.
Disclosure: I am not now, nor have I ever been, a landlord.
I asked a simple question: is it common for landlords to saddle their tenants with the cost of maintenance?
Lay off the rightwing talk radio. That stuff will rot your mind. You’ll find yourself wandering the streets, muttering “I’m not a victim, I’m not a victim …”
My landlord tried to get me to maintain the landscaping at the SFH we rent (cut grass, pull weeds and trim bushes), he would lend me the tools/equipment. I told him NO. He now pays somebody to do it.
I’ve always done the yard work on places I rent. If the landlord has it done for me, that’s built into the rent, more or less. And a friend of mine who NEVER will do yard work was whining to me a few years back that he kept getting turned down for renting houses. My guess (from the landlord’s point of view) is why bother with a guy like that? If the tenant refuses to do the lawn, he probably won’t clean inside his house, either, not to mention the lawn care expense eating into rent proceeds.
I’ve also lived in places as far back as the 1980’s where we had a “deductible” that we as renters had to pay for repairs. On our house, I think it was $150; anything beyond that was the landlord’s expense.
One thing it did, was to allow the old man who rented the place out to know he wouldn’t get bothered a lot and nickle and dimed to death by tenants calling for little stuff. For us, we fixed those little things. The rent was appropriately cheap, as well, perhaps $100/mo below market rate. And for those who wouldn’t put up with such an arrangement, thanks — less people competing for the house we wanted to live in!
“..landlords are trying to saddle tenants with the cost of property maintenance….”
Tampa: Someone stopped by last week and told me she had heard several complaints from renters whose landlords were expecting them to pay for hugh maintenence expenses in their places. We are talking pluming pipes and roofing, structural things. One of the houses she was talking about I happened to know the sales history on as it is in my neighborhood. It sold a couple of years ago for way too much money to cash flow. The first renter moved out after a year when they tried to raise the rent $400.00 a month. The couple that moved in had a large dog so they needed a place with a yard, so that is why they are paying a premium, the house is not that great(termites) I actually toured it when it was for sale. I am guessing that the landlords jacked up the rent when there one year ARM reset. And while the increased rent may be covering his payment he has no money for the pluming problems or any other repairs. I am sure this “landlord”, has no equity in the place and will not make any money on his “investment”, ever.
These landlords want the renters to make up the difference so as to keep their heads above water.
OT: Agent P’cola Popper reports that the first big auction (17 properties) will be held today out at the beach. I will see if I can weasel my way in and get us a report. Plan to post up the results in todays “local section”. Heading out in about 20 minutes.
The auction list can be found at the following link:
http://www.andersonrealestateauctions.com/auction_list.php
I look forward to the report. These types of reports are one of my favorite things about this board, especially because they’re not tainted like the reports from the pro-RE MSM.
I look foreward too. Is this a honest auction without high reserves or shills?
Here’s a golden excerpt from Realtor(tm) Tom Doyle’s (”The Naples Insider”) Summer 2007 update for SW Florida:
http://naplesinsider.com/CurrentReport.htm
“The overwhelming number of homes listed for sale, continue to be priced significantly above current market values, and recently sold comparables. And have no business being listed for sale. In many cases it’s like asking someone would they rather pay $2.50 for a gallon of gas, or $4.00.
I have no idea why any listing agent would except a listing at a price that has absolutily no chance of selling. This is not just a mater of a few cases, it is pervasive throughout the area.
This is very confusing for buyers. When buyers asks, why is that home priced significantly higher than a similar comparable. The simple answer: The seller is clueless and wants more money. Those sellers are just ignored as a joke.”
It should be called Naples, Mexico these days.
http://www.marcoeagle.com/news/2007/jun/30/collier_sheriff_partners_feds_curb_jails_illegal_i/?latest
naples is just plain greedy. outside of second home investors, there is nothing worth anything there. (the beaches are a bit nice). the rich folks wouldnt dare allow any investment in workforce housing. ran off the illegals and now must cut their own grass and cook their own food (a joke). but it is bad when people are coming over from miami to work
naples is just plain greedy. outside of second home investors, there is nothing worth anything there. (the beaches are a bit nice). the rich folks wouldnt dare allow any investment in workforce housing. ran off the illegals and now must cut their own grass and cook their own food (a joke). but it is bad when people are coming over from miami
where did this ace learn how to spell?
It should be oblivious that he went to a Floorida public skool.
Good one! lmao!! Soon this high skool flunkie will be stirring soup at the Salvation Army.
postman is not from florida, but doing okay in boca. i’ve lived in boca, before the boom.
so (soory) for the bad spelling. just making a point. i send my kids to private school.
own property in north carolina (college student housing).
peace
‘Creativity’ = fraud???
‘They got their loans in the first place through creativity,’ he said. ‘Now they’re back to reality.’
“Today, in a bearish housing market with experts declaring St. Lucie County in a real estate recession, Kevin Sullivan has not constructed a single townhouse in three of the five River Place subdivisions where he planned to build.”
‘All Real Estate Recessions are Local’
“As litigation continues, Sullivan said he cannot, at this time, refund the deposit money, which has been ‘exhausted’ in building capital and efforts to save a deal from turning sour.”
… ‘It’s still a really good investment.’
Oh man! That’s sounds like a super investment! Best deal since the Louisiana Purchase! Where do I sign up?
yeah, “it would be just a swell investment if I hadn’t spent all the down payment money on my new yacht and a couple hundred lap dances.”
From TC Palm. “It’s a buyer’s market these days when it comes to boats. First-quarter numbers indicate boat sales could be down as much as 38 percent when projected out over the year in St. Lucie County alone.”
“‘Business has been terrible,’ said George Field, president of the Marine Industries Association of the Treasure Coast.”
“The result has created a stockpile for area boat dealers, and that has had an effect on manufacturers, too, according to Field. ‘Dealers have backed off on new orders substantially,’ Field said. ‘It’s created a cascading effect on the entire industry.’”
No worries - Subprime is contained!
Yeah…people DON’T need another Boat right NOW.
They’re all too busy dodging the RE icebergs and bailing out the Luxury Cruise Ship “Housing Market” !
sounds like ole George may soon have hits nuts in a vise!
Right. No spillover effect. No impact on consumer spending. No economic impact. No job losses. No property tax impact. GOD, WILL EVERYONE STOP WORRYING? EVERYTHING’S GONNA BE AWWRIGHT!
TONIGHT WE GONNA PARTY LIKE IT’S NINETEEN TWEN-TY-NINE! (Bah-bah BAAAAAAAH bah…Bah-bah, BAAAAAAAAAAH bah.)
(I was dreaming when I wrote this.)
OT,
This was on the evening news in Naples this week.
“A snapshot of the Collier County jail population taken in January showed that as many as a quarter of the jail’s 1,150 inmates are self-admitted illegal immigrants. Some staff members believe the actual number could be closer to 33 to 35 percent.”
http://www.marcoeagle.com/news/2007/jun/30/collier_sheriff_partners_feds_curb_jails_illegal_i/?latest
Naples, is now like living in a Mexican suburb, it is everywhere you look. Why didn’t the county try to curb this when they were building the ten of thousands of new empty condo’s and house here.
Naples is so dead no people this summer you can cross a six lane road with a blind fold on and have an good chance of no one running you over. All the retail and food outlets are dead. I go grocery shopping on the weekend during the day and I’m lucky if I see 30 people in the store besides the employees. I believe Naples to be in a recession but no one will state it. I’ve seen condo’s drop almost 100k where I live and still no buyers. I rent in Lely resort and was told by a realtor there are over 500 homes and condo’s for sale in Lely alone. I my complex out of about 80 units almost 25% are for sale.
I’m so glad Naples and Collier county is getting what it deserves and so glad I’m renting and will be moving out of here the end of the year.
let us know when houses reach $80 a square foot and then we may start looking. Property taxes and insurance are a deal killer for most folks on property over $250K. Gave over boys and girls!
$80 a foot in what cities? I expect to see those prices in Palm Beach County with some nicer houses in nice neighboors possibly going for $100 a foot. Those houses were over $200 a foot at the peak.
This can’t be. My boss’ friend bought a house and a condo, for investment purposes, in Naples and said they will escalate in price in no time. Could he really be misguided?
We had acquaintances buy a penthouse condo for a bit over a million bucks in 2004. She paid a professional decorator to furnish and decorate it. In late 2006, we heard that they wanted to move somewhere to the east coast of Florida to be closer to a new grandchild. Yeah, right. Maybe they got tired of living in Central America del Norte.
I’d love to know what they’re asking for that condo. I wonder what they can get.
What is in Naples? Just old people? Does it even (did it ever) have an economy?
Some Florida cities — Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville — have corporations headquartered there, or naval bases, or things I can see that would drive the economy. When I look at a satellite image of Port Charlotte-Cape Coral-Naples on Google maps, I see hundreds of square miles of suburbs, but I’ll be damned if anything economic springs to mind when I think of those places.
I think the biggest industry in the Naples/Cape Coral area is wannabe landlords. It will soon also be a hub of activity in the foreclosure industry.
Florida’s economic map - a family portrait:
- Jacksonville: The good son. Pays his bills. Lives a clean life. Stays out of trouble.
- Tampa: The blue-collar dad. Hard working. Rough around the edges. Stand-up guy.
- Miami: The jailbait daughter with the Lindsay Lohan lifestyle. All flash and no substance. Her claim to fame is that she knows this person or that.
- Orlando: The jailbird son. Works at a car wash. Drives a tricked-out Lincoln with rims.
- Boca Raton: The rich grandfather who has nothing at his house you can play with.
- Palm Beach: The weird aunt who doesn’t work, always has money, but won’t let you look in the basement.
- Fort Lauderdale: Alex P. Keaton after a bad night of coke.
- Naples: The slacker brother who spends his entire paycheck and always bugs you to party with him Friday night.
- Sarasota: The fat sister who dresses like she’s thin.
- Port St. Lucie - The black sheep that stopped getting invited to Thanksgiving about two years ago.
- Pensacola: The uncle that got into that horrible accident, then everyone stopped talking to him because they thought it was his fault.
- The other small towns: Thinking about changing their names so they don’t have to be associated with the rest of the family.
In other words, the only places worth settling down are Jacksonville and Tampa.
I worked in Jacksonville for a year. Not all of my colleagues liked it, but I found it pleasant and laid back. And, at the time, it was relatively cheap — comparable to parts of the South and Midwest.
I would never live in any of the big cities due to crime. Miami is the worst. Orlando sucks unless you love mickey mouse. The east coast of central FL is allright except for hurricanes. Interior north FL is probably the best. Feels somewhat rural, but I like it that way
“In February 2006, Blanco bought a preconstruction one-bedroom unit in a condo community called Quantum on the Bay. She paid $465,000. Today, however, Blanco estimates the property is worth $100,000 less than what she agreed to pay.”
Got news for you Lucy… its only worth what u can get for it…. maybe 150K?
Blanco sounds like a description of her current bank a/c balance.
The market is in deep freeze here in Broward. Tons of listings, no buyers. The big price reductions really haven’t shown up yet. I think that there still needs to be some event to trigger the collapse.
With every piece of bad news being spun into good news by the stock market, the trigger will need to be something undeniably bad, such as a hurricane/iran oil cutoff etc. The standard bad news: retail sales collapse, CDO market apocalypse, Iran/Russia doing non-dollar denominated oil sales, just hasn’t burst the bubble. We’ve gone from irrational exuberance to just plain irrational.
In Broward the trigger is going to be pulled this winter when plenty of homes will have spent an entire year on the market with no snowbirdie buyers.
Next year, the other 700 Trill in subprime resets and it’s going to take more than Richard Ruble to get you out of the hole.
don’t doubt the rainmaker!
Following up my own post, what you need to realize is that the tri-county travesty of Miami/Broward/Palm Beach depends on one and only one thing for its price structure: tourist ignorance.
They count exclusively on tourists not keeping up with the news and real estate market down here. They smack their lips each winter when the birdies fly down from Lawng Eyeland and pray that the wives will con the doddering husbands into dropping four hundred G’s on a place “faw our retiuhment” with nary a clue how they’ll pay for it other than “We’ll sell our old house and move down here in a yee-uh or two.”
Suddenly, their son and daughter-in-law are both out of work, lost their home and they’re moving in with mom and dad “temporarily” in Levittown. Consequently, they can’t unload their creaky old house because they’d be displacing the kids, too, since they certainly can’t afford to buy them out at market prices.
The Florida condo goes back on the market with the same delusional expectations. And the Lawng Eyelanders pray to St. Christopher that someone even more clueless and ignorant comes along.
In Broward, Miami and Palm Beach the realtors have a stranglehold on the news. Local RE associations have stopped disclosing sales, and price information. I don’t think the FAR can be trusted. A co-worker of mine, who has a property he is trying to flip, says 2 realtors he talked to claim the bottom is here and the market is about to go up. I don’t think this guy has done any independent research and really does believe what the realtors have told him. Many people think rich latino foreigners and baby boomers are still going to flock here and buy their overpriced house.
I concur with the observations on Broward County. In zip codes of 33029, 33027, homes are selling. Apart from Latin America, Broward has a sizable Caribbean population and they do believe in homeownership and may not be hip to the impending doom. And realtors are spinning like crazy…
The strangehold on the news is outrageous. Because there isn’t any good news to print, the Sun-Sentinel has simply stopped printing RE news. They haven’t had any legitimate RE news stories printed in nearly two weeks.
During the boom, the Sentinel would print two stories/columns a day, not they print one every two weeks.
Pathetic.
“Blanco is convinced she’s not getting the square footage she paid for. She’s enlisted an architect to measure her floor plans. ‘It’s wrong,’ she said. ‘It’s not what I purchased. I paid a lot of money for that. I want every square foot of it, because I paid for it. I’m entitled to it.’”
—————————————————————————
“I’m entitled to it!” ….you sure are sweety and you’re gonna be rewarded for your greed.
Hang on Lucy, you’re about to spend about $40,000 in legal fees to purchase an extra 15 square feet.
If I were the builder I’d just smile and bump her up to the next bigger unit “at no extra charge” :-).
I wish foreclosure numbers were divided between homes that were intended to be occupied by the owners, and those that were not.
“In Florida, there were 21,035 foreclosure actions in June, up 144
percent from last year.”
If those numbers only represent June, then what about Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr and May?
What is the total number for the first half of 2007?
“On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors said U.S. home sales and prices will fall further in 2007 and the housing slump will persist into next year as builders curtail production.”
What?????? I thought we were at the bottom? Come on now, NAR, get your story straight. People are counting on your honest evaluations of the market.
What’s sad is J6P won’t even realize they changed their tune.
I warned my family a long time ago… a few listened… most parrot the local paper. Cest la vie.
I wish this didn’t have to happen… but that means wishing homes had never left affordable ranges… sigh…
Got popcorn?
Neil
‘Half the people coming to see me are just walking away from their houses,’ said the lawyer, Walter J. Snell of Daytona Beach”
…and the other half are running away from their homes!
Home sales in Florida will be lucky to get 10,000 this year.’”
Class please open your text books of financial history to chapter 6: Florida 1925/1926. Billy, please read aloud.
Forget the past… repeat the past. 10,000 sales this year? No, not at the rate things are progressing. Next year, it will lucky to have 5,000.
Got popcorn?
Neil
in the area where i live, every third house is on sale, lennar is offering big discounts for new constructions with no buyers, houses adjacent to the developed land are on the market for over 6 months. this is getting uglier by the day.
“‘It was going up so rapidly that I was fearful that if it went any higher I could not afford it anymore,’ she said. ‘So I needed to get it while it was still at a price I could afford…before it went out of my range.’”
“‘If we don’t hurry up and buy something now,’ she said, ‘we’re never going to be able to buy anything.’”
“In February 2006, Blanco bought a preconstruction one-bedroom unit in a condo community called Quantum on the Bay. She paid $465,000. Today, however, Blanco estimates the property is worth $100,000 less than what she agreed to pay.”
“The condo has lost more than the value of Blanco’s $93,000 deposit. And so, just as fast as Blanco wanted in, she now wants out.”
Greed serves you right! Bye bye $93k! Another guy loses $200k. Never buy preconstruction, period.
The only thing going up in Florida right now is the mortgage fraud..don’t feel sorry for all these lenders who are stupid enough not to do their homework as more of the few homes that are selling are sold for more than the listing price…you would think that their loan departments would spend the extra time to see why a home listed on the MLS sold for $100K more than the listing price…Hey you want to make a easy 100K go offer the most desperate seller on the block to buy his house if they will give you back money at closing and see if it works..there is always a way to make money in real estate..plain and simple…good or bad market…
To Paul and Others in the Jax Area:
What’s the word on the street? Sure are a lot of brand new houses for rent on the Jax Craiglist.
A friend just called with bad news, a guy she knows committed suicide last night. She said he had a lot of financial difficulties. I asked her what kind of financial difficulties and she said he was heavily invested in real estate. His yearly income from his job is $300,000 a year.
So sorry to hear this. Unfortunately, more is coming. Nothing is worth your life.
Wow $300k job and he commits suicide? He must of been like 3 million in debt or something with no way out