Not Seeing Any Recovery In California
The Sacramento Bee reports from California. “No question about it. These are times that try builders’ souls. Sales of new Sacramento-area houses, condominiums and townhouses fell in April, May and June to their lowest levels in 18 months, according to statistics released today. Average sales prices, too, are back to where they were three years ago.”
“Meanwhile, it’s taking sellers in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties longer to unload their existing homes in a market of 14,700 ‘For Sale’ signs. Reports of rising foreclosures and the arrival of home auctions add to the uncertainty.”
“Greg Paquin, Gregory Group president, said builders have cut production. But there are now more builders in more locations. Most bought land during the housing boom, he said, and must build despite the downturn.”
“That has pushed average sales prices 11 percent below the same time last year, he said. Statistics show the average new-home sales price in the six-county area is $444,233, about the same as the second quarter of 2004.”
“Average sales prices peaked at $498,000 in the second quarter of 2006, according to the Gregory Group.”
“Home builders say they are fighting back with price cuts while building smaller, less expensive houses that have fewer standard options. ‘We are more likely to adjust the price downward and use incentives on those things that help customers qualify for a loan,’ said Barry Grant, Sacramento territory president for Los Angeles-based KB Home.”
The Orange County Register. “California homeowners are among the most likely in the nation to lose their home to the bank, according to an industry report released Thursday. In June, the Golden State logged the second highest rate of foreclosure, one filing for every 315 households, in the nation, said RealtyTrac.”
“Notices of default, the first stage of foreclosure, are rising. About 40 percent of such filings result in a bank possessing a home, said Rick Sharga, a spokesman for RealtyTrac.”
“‘If those keep increasing we will eventually get to the point where the real estate market can’t support that,’ Sharga said. ‘Then, it will get nasty.’”
“For the first six months of the year, all foreclosure filings totaled 189,560 in the state, up more than three fold from the first half of 2006. In Orange County foreclosure filings totaled 1,647 in June, or one for every 589 households. That’s…more than doubled the total in June 2006.”
“For the first half of the year, filings totaled 9,012 in the county, more than triple the figure in the same period last year.”
“Walter Hahn, a real estate economist and consultant in Irvine, said foreclosure will keep rising through 2009. He said millions of subprime borrowers and speculators in housing face the end of low introductory ‘teaser’ rates. They won’t be able to afford higher payments, he said.”
“‘It is just unbelievable how many people were conned into taking these mortgages,’ Hahn said.”
The North County Times. “While city officials await developer D.R. Horton’s submission of new plans to rebuild the downtown Paramount townhomes that burned to the ground in January, construction on a nearby Horton residential development has stopped.”
“Work on the Venue, which will be a five-story, 82-unit condominium building next to the Paramount, has ceased since the concrete parking garage on the first floor of the building was completed in the spring.”
The Daily Press. “The housing market in the Victor Valley continued its downward spiral in June as sales of existing single-family homes fell 60.2 percent from the same period a year ago, based on data from Larry Trombley of Century 21 Rose Real Estate.”
“The ongoing decline in sales of existing single-family homes in the Victor Valley dragged down housing prices, which dropped 11.1 percent compared to June 2006, Trombley said.”
“‘From the first half of 2006 to the first half of 2007, prices are down 7.2 percent,’ he said.”
“Inventories swelled from the steep plunge in sales. Of the 4,162 homes on the market in the Victor Valley in June, less than 5 percent closed escrow. Local Realtors attributed the decline in sales and prices of existing homes to the large volume of new homes hitting the market.”
“‘Builders have a lot of new product on the market and they keep lowering their prices to get rid of them,’ Trombley said.”
“For Riverside and San Bernardino counties, the rate of foreclosure filings — including default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions, was the fourth highest in the nation in June, according to RealtyTrac.”
“‘There are a lot of homes to choose from and good deals to be made,’ said Ann McDonald, president of the Victor Valley Association of Realtors in Hesperia. ‘Based on the direction the market is going, my feeling is that it will be this way for another year,’ she said.”
The Fresno Bee. “The number of Fresno-area properties headed into foreclosure climbed 24% in June, as the moribund real estate market showed no signs of perking up. About 1,188 foreclosure filings were reported in June in Fresno County.”
“‘We’re not seeing any recovery,’ said Ken Neufeld, a veteran real estate agent at London Properties.”
“Since January, an average of about 350 houses have been sold each month. That compares with 735 transactions in June 2005, when the market was at its peak, Neufeld said.”
“The median price has fallen from $290,000 in 2005 to $281,000, although appraisers say the actual decline is higher. That’s because sellers often give money to the buyers as a condition of sale. Neufeld said the concessions average $5,000 to $6,000, although some are higher.”
“An auction company has been hired to sell 17 houses in the Fresno area next week, offering a highly visible example of the depth of the real estate slump.”
“The firm will attempt to sell 400 houses in Northern California in a series of auctions beginning Tuesday in Fresno and continuing through July 22 in Sacramento. It’s the first home auction here since 2001.”
“The auction indicates how quickly and how deeply the real estate market dipped after one of the greatest periods of appreciation this region has ever seen.”
“And it is only going to get worse, said Shannon Martin, a Fresno real estate agent who specializes in selling bank-owned properties. ‘There will be another wave coming at the end of the year,’ he said. ‘The teaser-rate adjustable-rate loans are coming due.’”
“‘Over the past year I’ve been doing this, we started in the Detroit area and the Northeast and now we’re seeing the wave of foreclosures moving west,’ said Crystal Wright, a spokeswoman for Hudson & Marshall.”
“‘There is one on Alluvial at San Joaquin Country Club that is a beautiful custom, and the one on Ashcroft is a nice and clean entry-level home. And then there are some junkers in there. They are across the board,’ said Martin, who has some of the listings being sold.”
“Wright said some buyers can purchase properties at significantly reduced prices. ‘It is not unusual to buy at 70% to 80% of the [listed] price in a soft market that continues to get weaker by the day and month. Banks are very motivated to quickly dispose of property and to not hold on to nonperforming loans.’”
“But at least one expert says auctions don’t often produce bargains because they use promotion and hype to jack up the price.”
“‘Those crowds create competitive bidding, which creates a feeling of loss of deals, which creates a bidding frenzy, which creates very high selling prices, often at current market value. Now add to those high selling prices the auction companies’ 5% commission that is tagged on and you have a terrible buy. Not good for any investors looking for deals,’ said Alexis McGee, president of Foreclosures.com.”
“Dave Webb, a Hudson & Marshall principal, said his firm will revisit Fresno in November, and possibly beyond, depending upon the wishes of his lender clients. ‘California is a funny state,’ he said. ‘When it goes up, it goes up fast. And when it goes down, it drops on down.’”
‘Even when adjusting for San Diego’s growth, as the graph to the right shows, there were more NODs and NOTs filed in June than in any month during the entire 1990s housing bust. The month of June saw 1,708 Notices of Default and 738 Notices of Trustee Sale.’
I love that NOD graph. It reminds me of a famous movie line:
“To infinity — and beyond!”
GetStucco,
LOL
I was thinking that exact thought last week…
//Buzz Lightyear voice//
“To infinity… and beyond”
//Buzz Lightyear voice//
Chris
What a beautiful exponential curve , yummy.
Humans are inherantly awful at understanding exponential functions. I love exponential functions.
It won’t take long with the number of FB waking up to their fukupedness in the exponetial range before the pervasive sentiment about RE is that it is the WORST INVESTMENT EVER!!!!!
At that point the banks will literally pay to have positive cash flow quality rentals taken off their books.
It looks to me like the graph is starting to show some signs of deceleration. I am guessing however it will look like a steep incline until the subprimes are all washed out, then a moderate dip, which will be hallowed by all in the RE world as a “sign” and then when the ALT-A resets start hitting next year and beyond, the chart will take off steeply again, this time going far higher. I am not sure how long lenders can continue to hold foreclosed properties off the market, but I do know that for every property they hold, not only are there maintenance costs and taxes due, but also they are depreciating as the market sinks, so either way they are potentially looking at huge losses. I assume the thinking now is that if they flooded the market it would drive prices lower, causing even more foreclosures…
“…not only are there maintenance costs and taxes due, but also they are depreciating as the market sinks…”
Sounds to me like high cash burn rates — dot bomb redux.
I for one am seeing signs of recovery in North County San Diego — In the human directional industry. Just saw the most sign twillers in a one-mile stretch since the onset of the bust. I guess the red hot spring sales season is starting really, really late this year.
“twirlers” (Can’t spell today…)
I am seeing these twirlers in N AZ now, standing out in the sun. I have to wonder if they actually help with sales.
Same question I was asking myself, Ben. One theory: The twirlers and the ReMAX balloons give a subconscious-level sense of normalcy to the local housing market. As long as the sign twirlers are twirling signs and hot air balloons are floating aloft, the San Diego real estate market must be doing just fine…
There are sign twirlers everywhere on the weekends.I would dread that job in 115* weather.I’m sure there not makeing much money.We need some hotties in bikinies twirling signs around here.Not sure where they find some of these folks.
At least SD twirlers enjoy 70 degree weather!
Saw twirlerz in Valencia, Ca. yesterday…
For Dominos pizza.
Young kid, working on his tan (mozilo wantabe?)
I ask the same question every time I see a twirler. In this market, if someone truly intends to spend 300K (condo) to 700K or more (SFH), wouldn’t they already know the location of the units? Who is persuaded to make such a gargantuan purchase due to a spinning street sign?
You know those inflatable huge gorillas, pandas, what have you, that businesses like fast food places, car dealerships and anybody having a sale, like to have highly visible?
It’s reckoned that they increase sales by 20-35%
Well for consumer goods, sure ( I wonder about autos), but property? People generally don’t just pull off the road and spend 300K+ on a whim.
True only under the old paradigm. We here on this blog know better, but many folks still think you buy houses like you buy a new car. It would be interesting to know just how many houses were actually sold in the last 5 or so years to people who just happened by, saw a place they liked, and ended up buying it.
“Daddy daddy! Look at the big gorilla! Can we go see? Please? can we please?”
“hmm.. Whatdaya think honey.. feel like going so deeply into debt we’ll be slaves for eternity?”
“Oh ok, why not. It’s such a beautiful day!”
Well if it works for pizza and they’re selling McMansions I can see how they might make a connection.
D.R. Horton Pulls a D.B. Cooper…
Nice Golden Parachute, by the way.
“While city officials await developer D.R. Horton’s submission of new plans to rebuild the downtown Paramount townhomes that burned to the ground in January, construction on a nearby Horton residential development has stopped.”
Yeah… that’s kinda delusional thinking that DR Horton will restart that project when they’re apparenlty abandoning one right next door.
Fires happen, projects get fired…
“Police and fire investigators determined in February that the Paramount blaze either was caused by someone or was “recklessly” set, and they recommended misdemeanor charges be filed against an unnamed suspect who hadn’t been arrested.”
“However, Paul Levikow, spokesman for the district attorney’s office, said this week that no charges have been filed in the case. He declined to give further details.”
A project under construction goes up in the middle of the day in the middle of the week and no one “sees” anything. I had no idea D.R. Horton had such a commitment to hiring the vision-impaired except maybe in their accounting department.
That might be a valuable “skill” soon.
I’m sure we should have great confidence in the thoroughness of the D.A.’s investigation, right up there with the confidence D.R. Horton will deliver those new plans in August…notice they didn’t say what year.
When I first saw this on the news, I thought the builder’s trying to get some insurance money. They had to know they were going to lose money on the project. I live at a D.R. Horton apartment complex (Portofino) in Mission Valley. Pretty on the outside, however, you can still tell it was slapped together with materials of questionable quality. I’d never buy anything made by the same folks.
“…largest structure fire in Escondido history incinerated four four-story buildings under construction and left only a single completed building standing..
left one standing which happened to be the completed one.
That was a stroke of luck.
“Wright said some buyers can purchase properties at significantly reduced prices. ‘It is not unusual to buy at 70% to 80% of the [listed] price in a soft market that continues to get weaker by the day and month. Banks are very motivated to quickly dispose of property and to not hold on to nonperforming loans.’”
Wow!!!
How do you learn about the houses banks are trying to sell? Is there a list I could get somewhere? I plan on buying in about 2 years and would love to buy a house a bank is trying to dump quickly.
I’ve been looking into that, and it has easy aspects and difficult ones. The simplest is to become familiar with your local county recorders website, and keep track of the NOD’s, etc.
Coutrywide has a website with all their reos’.Chase, hsbc as well as several others have sites with their current reo inventory.Countrywide has about 10000 properties on the books right now, about 2000 being in, you guessed it, california.
To get the various sites, just enter into google:
Countrywide REO
Ocwen REO
Freddie Mac REO
Fannie Mae REO
HSBC REO
Chase REO
Etc.
HOLY SHIT!!!!!
Just checked out the countrywide REO list!!!!
1953 homes!!! 67 in Stockton!!
Seems like the avg list price for the Stockton homes is around $350K!!!
From the list I can tell you that the MOST they are worth is an avg of $200K before selling cost (and that is way to much!!!).
Damn guys, by my numbers Countrywide alone is sitting on between $700million to a billion in REO!!!! WTF, wern’t they supposed to be selling their crap to the Chinese? If there sitting on that much REO the total ammount of bad loans out there in MBS and CDOs must be much more than the numbers I have read about. These lenders must have rid themselves of many times the number of bad loans as they retained?
Hell if CW is sitting on close to a billion in REO at this point the real fallout of this credit collapse will surpass even the most bearish outlooks I have seen on this blog.
Man, with the kind of burn were about to put to international lenders to us and holders of the US$ in 10 years $7/gallon gas will be a distant memory much like $1/gallon gas is now!! With kind of ponzi scheme we have pulled on the world being exposed I don’t see why any other country will send us anything of value. It is blatently obvious that our military make poor thieves and we produce nothing other than food in quantities to allow any exporting. The hurt coming to the US is going to be insane.
70% to 80% of the [listed] price as of TODAY, when there are hundreds of REOs hitting the comps every week will be 120% of the [begging] price this time next year when thousands of REOs will be hitting the comps weekly.
The prices are nothing to get excited about right now. A quick glance at any of the bank REO’s reveals that they are still trying to get the full amount of the note. I’d imagine better deals will be had later on this fall, getting better and better as their inventories grow. Then again, maybe they’ll start accepting 60% offers soon.
I get excited when prices drop because oneday ill be able to get a huge house with 20+ acres of land for cheap
progress
B of A has a webpage too.. however, there are few listed properties at this time.
..gonna have to wait a couple months at least.
Did anyone watch CNNMoney this morning? ARMs resetting, mortgage woes, credit counselling, all of our favorate topics, one after another.
I missed it but sure it spooked the sheeple a little more.Did they tell everyone to put on their tin foils hats?
Half of the so called credit counselors are broke themselves, blind leading the blind I guess.
I have never figured out the meaning of ‘tin foil hat’ from context. Someone please define.
Here ya go: http://tinyurl.com/ylec4s
“‘There are a lot of homes to choose from and good deals to be made,’ said Ann McDonald, president of the Victor Valley Association of Realtors in Hesperia. ‘Based on the direction the market is going, my feeling is that it will be this way for another year,’ she said.”
Yup one year and all will be well ? Good Luck. This is in my neck of the woods and this area is flooded and infested with houses for sale and growing everyday and they are still building new homes. I’m gonna put my lawn chair on the roof with a cold drink and watch for rock bottom to hit. And another thing I saw a person selling a stove and toaster in front of a brand new house today nothing else just a stove and toaster times must be getting tough. BEER ME !!
‘my feeling is that it will be this way for another year,’ she said.”
- That is Realtor Speak meaning 3 to 5 years.
My guess is, prior to his demise, Mr. Owner threw the mortgage documents in the toaster oven, and then stuck his head in the oven. Both items now dredge up memories of that awful day, and are being liquidated to pay for the lavish services……
“‘It is just unbelievable how many people were conned into taking these mortgages,’ Hahn said.”
Conned?
As far as I know, no firearms or three-card monty games were used to “con” FB’s into buying way more than they could afford. You can only be “conned” if you’re dumb enough or just plain greedy enough to let yourself be conned. If it sounds too good to be true, then …
I say, let ‘em crash.
– Judge Smales
“You’ll get nothing and like it”
When prices were going up 10k / week they thought they could make some money too.How in the hell were thes fb’s conned? They were the ones looking for money.It is a total scapegoat for the clueless people out there.
This is now a constant in reporting the foreclosure story…the poor FBs were “conned”, “confused”, “pressured into buying”, “misled’, “duped”, “unable to understand what they were signing”, ad nauseaum.
Before this is over, the general population is being softened up to accept that a few nickles will be thrown in the direction of these FBs and the big boys–the ibanks, the rating agencies, the CFCs and their ilk, will be given some sort of bailout–what sort of bailout still to be determined.
That the hedge funds won in Congress on the tax issue proves it.
can’t cheat an honest man..
“Greg Paquin, Gregory Group president, said builders have cut production. But there are now more builders in more locations. Most bought land during the housing boom, he said, and must build despite the downturn.”
Full steam ahead! For some reason I don’t see an end to this inventory problem for years. I’m looking forward to builder/developer BK’s. It’ll help to stop the destuction of nature for completely unnecessary housing.
“I’m looking forward to builder/developer BK’s.”
I’ve been wondering about that. Centex is building around here (west coast Fla) like there’s no tomorrow.
Really want some fun - go to Monster.com and check out the job positions that the Home Builders are looking to fill. I’m a structural engineer, and I’m constantly being sent letters from headhunters representing “a major homebuilding firm in XXXXXX, looking for a structural engineer”. The pay is usually pretty good for the job.
Even for triple what they’re paying, ethically, I just couldn’t do it even if I didn’t believe I’d be on the street in six months.
Everywhere I look in Eastern WA builders are still full steam ahead. Inventory grows, sales have gone over a cliff, but they just keep building.
The question is, when will banks refuse to lend money for spec homes?
“when will banks refuse to lend money for spec homes?”
I imagine when the builders begin to default. Apparently, that’s not happening with the majors yet, although smaller, local builders are starting to default.
“In June, the Golden State logged the second highest rate of foreclosure, one filing for every 315 households, in the nation, said RealtyTrac.”
If I am reading this correctly that is mind boggling. IF its 1 in 315/per month then cumulatively then that would be almost 1/4 in a year! Are they ‘annualizing’ rate?
Oops should be ~4%.
I think 4% is about right in a year. Is the figure 1 / 315 households for all residences in CA including rentals, or does this only apply to homes with mortgages? If the first, then the rate of foreclosures in homes bought in the past 5 years must be the majority or indeed almost all of this number, which would probably put a good 1/4 of them in trouble.
Used to be that sellers could not give back any money to the buyer, unless it was for repairs. That money was always held in escrow by the bank until the person making the repairs needed to be paid. Stopping that practice (just giving money back to the buyer) would stop a lot of the incentive buying and also bring prices down.
“‘It is just unbelievable how many people were conned into taking these mortgages,’ Hahn said.”
It only tells me that southern Californians were just plain stupid. They didn’t have to take the mortgages, and they were not “conned”. Come on, you either can afford the mortgage or not, that’s it. Too many buyers were bought too much house and didn’t think that one day they would be hit with rising mortgages and to top it off, they would be stuck paying for mortgages that were much higher then what their houses were worth. Smart buyers are waiting for the greedy sellers that are not being realistic in their house prices. Way too many have “overimproved” their homes and they’re not going to get their monies back in the sale.
That’s just a fact of life. Buyers will wait and they will wait a long time …. sooner or later sellers will have to “drop” prices ….it make take six months, a year or two.
Some lady here in LA was telling me the other day that her ex-husband, and some other friend she has, are each building unpermitted bathrooms in their house “because they can’t afford the mortgage”. Any idea what the connection is?
Move in more people to help them pay the bills?
Diarrhea? vomitting all day long?
property taxes?
Among other things (aside from a sale) a room addition or similar will trigger a Prop 13 reassessment and that’ll sting.
Or maybe she just hates her ex and, while afraid to report him herself, she tells everyone she sees.
Hello all:
If you think crazy loan practices are limited to houses, you should have been with me at car negotiations today. It got to a point where I was negotiating for a Jeep Liberty (very cool car) and they offerred me a lease for the payment I wanted. Novasold get’s a sneaking suspicion because I’ve never leased a car before. So I walk.
I get home and read Edmunds about car leasing practices and find that some people who lease cars end up with negative equity.
Good grief.
I got a great deal on a ‘08 Ford Escape. I’m still not sure if I’m going to go there or drive the CRV into the ground.
Personally I’m convinced that there isn’t a car out there that has a good maintenance track record after 100k miles. I looked at every stripe of vehicle from the lower end to the higher end, read the blogs and have come to the conclusion that you should by the cheapest vehicle of the type you like (if it has appropriate saftey features and a good crash rating) and expect it to be dead within five years or almost dead.
I hate haggling with car salesmen. It gives me a headache!!!
I’m a haggler- use synthetic oil and you can go 200k ……….
Use Edmunds to buy the car and don’t talk to a salesman. Pay the fleet price. easy way to buy a car.
Well that certainly DOES sound like something that would be spouted off by some lease pushing sales droid.
In our house we have 2 early 90s Nissans that are plugging along - we are truly not obsessive enough about maintenance that they should necessarily have made it this far, and cosmetically they are less than beautiful, but there’s no reason a half decently made car should die in five years.
Or a house for that matter — but yes, many here have commented rather pointedly on that. Maybe after the final RIP for flip-and-get-rich-quick, the next thing will be home leasing. 5 years, for not much more than a regular mortgage, and we’ll throw in the granite countertops! Hey, these babies aren’t built to last forever, and it’s not like anyone really gets ahead by buying, anyway, right? In five years, they’ll have built out again and this neighborhood will be toast! Why assume the risk of ownership?
I just scared myself. Maybe that really is the NEW new paradigm.
Novasold:
The best thing you can do is make sure you get SEVERAL quotes from various dealers. Let them know you’re looking for something well below MSRP. If it’s a Jeep Liberty you are looking for, write down all the options you are looking for, then call Dave Smith Motors in Idaho. Yeah, I know you’re in VA, however, tell them you hear they have the best deals in the country and you want their lowest price. They’ll give you a quote, and that’s the number you need as a base. You can use that to negotiate a similar figure at a dealership near you. Heck, a lot of times it’s much cheaper to have them ship you the vehicle, than it is to purchase locally. A family members loaded Denali XL was close to $20k less than what a dealer in AZ wanted. Food for thought. Don’t overpay for a car. If you don’t ask the right questions, you’ll get taken for a ride.
“Personally I’m convinced that there isn’t a(N AMERICAN MADE) car out there that has a good maintenance track record after 100k miles.”
There, I fixed it for you.
I am not yet sure if ill own a car soon, if ever. The costs are too high and how much would it cost a month or year for insurance, taxes, license, maintain on a car? And with gas prices escalating, I would be far better off paying some neighboor to take me along when he goes somewhere. I may even walk places.
I drive a 1990 Maxima every day to work. It’s not the most beautiful car in the lot, but it has been pretty reliable. It has about 175,000 miles on it and hasn’t needed to have any major pieces replaced (transmission, engine, etc.).
I have a brother with a transmission shop. His observation is a car with a standard transmission lasts almost twice as long. The fuel economey is a little better too.
Well if it works for pizza and they’re selling McMansions I can see how they might make a connection.
I will have a large pepperoni pizza with extra cheese and the 4 bd / 3 ba McMansion in FB Acres on the side.
Ridiculous house prices in southern California are at a standstill and will remain that way, no matter what the real business or media tells you. Hello…no one can afford the current house prices???
Sellers have to get that message through their heads. If they don’t lower their asking price — they will not sell period. Buyers are waiting and they’re willing to wait, because they know prices will drop eventually and it will drop BIG!
Dee, the point is that buyers can be loaded into T-bills and keep adding to their positions in T-bills for several years while houses depreciate. 5% annual gains in T-bills and 8% annual losses in house prices mean a 13% annual compounded relative advantage. Try that for four years in southern California! Sellers cannot beat buyers.
Well put Bill.
That sums it up nicely.
They can simply rent or relocate. Many are doing just that.
Nova - it depends on the lease. If a true lease, then provided you return it as agreed, then you should owe nothing. I’m not sure what you are saying about ‘equity’ as you are not buying it.
My missus leases a BMW and it is a good deal especially as they take care of all the maintenance. The last time she finished the lease, they gave her money back as she was under the millage limt.
On the otherhand, I had a friend that did a ‘lease back’ from BMW. That wasn’t so great as that had an estimated market value at time of contract and at the end, it wasn’t worth that so she had to cough up some mollar. WHen we went into BMW, they tried to push this type of lease on us. I told them to take a hike and after I asked, did the traditional lease get discussed. !t wasn’t promoted in the store: only on the internet which the sales guys claimed they didn’t know about.
It’s just an illusion man. Go shopping at the mall today, and see how it is mostly empty. Go to the car dealer and see how few customers there are. Not difficult to get a table at a restaurant these days either is it. Drive around your neighborhood and see all the houses for sale, and especially notice the ones that are empty. Go shopping at Lowe’s and Home Depot and take notice of how few customers there are. Do you come to the same conclusion as Wall Street that the economy is booming?
1% of the population owns more than 50% of all the stocks in the stock market. The stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Why? Because they have a vested interest and they have all the money.
Research companies get paid big money to do on the ground research for large investment banks, so that they can find out what’s really going on in the main street market. Do they release that information to the public? No.
Here’s what I propose. WE do a little bit of market research of our own. Video economic conditions in your own neighborhood. Notice how few customers there are as compared to two years ago. Drive around your neighborhood and video all the for sale signs and empty houses. Comment on what you think of our current economic conditions. Show the world the Illusion.
Yes, there are plenty of locations in the country where the economy is still good. Especially in areas that did not have a large increase in home prices. But you are sheltered from seeing whats going on with housing in the rest of the country, which is a very large portion, because you do not see the full story on the TV.
The prime directive of the plunge protection team is to maintain investor confidence. They try to maintain this psychological mindset, regardless of the fundamentals in the economy. This is why you do not see any of the unpleasant things happening in the economy on TV. Let me show you what you have not been allowed to see. Will you take the red pill or the blue pill.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTkAsyzZB7E
How much longer can Wall Street keep up the illusion that everything is fine on Main Street America?
Post videos on Youtube under, The illusion of prosperity in America today.
Well in the neighborhood of Arcadia, where I am most of the week, there are lots of houses for sale. There is a mixture of way overpriced large-lot homes in the north end (closer to Camelback Mountain) and some real POS homes for sale in the south end. But one thing for sure is at lunch time you are hard pressed to find a parking place at the eateries. You have to get to a restaurant by 11:15 a.m. to get a seat or wait. Perhaps most of the professionals I rub elbows with at lunch time here are renters and / or contract professionals in health services and engineering?
http://www.ushomeauction.com/postAuctionSales.php?auctionID=H-002
59 homes left over?
This awesome 240 home auction in Northern California … still has 59 homes! The home I was interested in buying at this Auction, last month, still has the ‘Home Auction’ sign posted on it! It sold for more than I thought it was worth (I just want a place to live).
Anyone else notice this?
Curious?
Marcus,
Before you try to do any bidding with this sleazy outfit (unwise), I would strongly consider reading over their “terms” page:
http://www.ushomeauction.com/terms.php
“3. BIDDING AND BUYING AT THE AUCTION
Reserve Price. All Properties have a Reserve Price, meaning the Seller of each Property has established an unpublished, minimum selling price. The starting bid is not the Reserve Price. In order to become the Winning Bidder for a Property, a Bidder must meet or exceed the Reserve Price and have the highest bid. The Auctioneer may open bidding on any Property by placing a bid on behalf of the Seller. The Auctioneer may further bid on behalf of the Seller, up to the amount of the Reserve Price, by placing successive or consecutive bids for a Property, or by placing bids in response to other bidders. If no bidders meet the Reserve Price, the Seller is under no obligation to sell the Property. The Seller may withdraw a Property at any time prior to the announcement of the completion of the sale by the Auctioneer. Auctioneer is not acting as an agent for any Bidder in any capacity, and is acting exclusively as the Seller’s agent.”
The fact that all used-house auctions already allow a secret (oops– “unpublished”) reserve price was bad enough. Now U.S. Auction’s fine print informs us that shill bidding is not only commonplace (which we already knew), now it’s apparently *also* perfectly legal.
God bless our beloved “regulators” once again, for proving that government doesn’t work (by example).
I was aware of the fine print thing. But if the lenders are still sitting on 59 homes because of shill bidders - who is the victim? I’m not!
If this is how auctions are played out, I am not even gonna waste my time with them when time comes for me to buy a house. Ill just lowball a bunch of sellers and make a deal with the most desperate out of the lot.