Property Values Are Melting Like Ice Cream In Florida
The Herald Tribune reports from Florida. “The first thing you notice as you drive the hundreds of miles of crumbling roads in this once rapidly growing city is the enormous number of ‘For Sale’ signs. Every 9th or 10th house is either listed for sale or will be as soon as foreclosure proceedings are concluded.”
“All told, as many as 2,000 of North Port’s 20,600 homes hang over the market, grossly distorting any semblance of balance between supply and demand, data from the Sarasota County MLS, RealtyTrac.com and Port Charlotte property appraiser Dennis Black shows.”
“‘Drive any block in North Port and you will see four or five ‘For Sale’ signs in every direction,’ said Michael Tenn, a Daytona Beach resident still trying to sell the house his grandmother moved out of last year. ‘Everybody is trying to get rid of property.’”
“Now that the boom is over, North Port is suffering more than any other place in Southwest Florida. Its economy is based on home building and real estate sales, and those industries are now at a virtual standstill.”
“The homes that are on the market, or soon will be, represent a 4.7-year supply given the current pace of sales.”
“In all, builders have constructed 9,700 homes in North Port since 2002. Convinced that wave after wave of retiring baby boomers would continue to spur growth for years to come, builders kept building.”
“Today, all that has come to screeching halt. As of mid-June, there were a total of 885 homes for sale in North Port, according to the Sarasota County MLS.”
“There also were nearly 200 FSBOs and 400 houses that builders erected on speculation and are holding in inventory, according to statistics. In addition, another 195 homes have been foreclosed on by banks, while 305 more waiting to go through that same process, statistics show. It is possible that lenders who took possession of those 195 homes also might have put them on the market for sale.”
“Ray Martin, spent nearly $740,000 buying six homes in North Port three years ago, is in a different predicament. He was able to sell one at a $100,000 profit before the boom ended, but is still sitting on the other five and paying interest on nearly $500,000 in loans.”
“‘We’ve come way down on price,’ Martin said. ‘We’re just about where we were three years ago, and I don’t see any upswing.’”
“In the meantime, he is trying to rent the houses to cover his expenses. But rents have also plunged. ‘I have one house on a deep water canal that I’m renting for $895, and I used to get $1,100. The others I used to rent for $1,000 and I’m now getting only $800.’”
“Roger Clyne, an agent with Exit Realty, did not try to sugarcoat the situation. ‘There’s a tremendous supply of homes on the market and demand is way down,’ Clyne said. ‘Property values are melting like ice cream, and no one knows how far they will drop. The only way to attract buyers is to keep moving the asking price below the rest of the pack.’”
“Traditionally, about 85 percent of the 20,000 homes in the city were homesteaded, which means they were bought by people who intended to live in them. By 2005, that figure had dropped to 67 percent.”
“Black checked the addresses of all the non-homesteaded buyers and found that two-thirds of them live in Florida, suggesting that they were speculators and not snowbirds. With all those empty homes hanging over the market, it is no surprise that prices have dropped.”
“A 1,600-square-foot home built in 2004 that might have commanded $203,000 during the boom is now worth $60,000 less, Black said. An acre of land that went for $50,000 two years ago can now be had for $10,000.”
“North Port was the epicenter of the housing boom and is now at the heart of the downturn, a phenomenon that is hurting everyone who catered to those in the construction trade.”
“‘A lot of the local guys are hurting, they’re not working,’ said Ray Behren, (owner of) Chicago Pizza & Pub. ‘A lot of guys are still working, but they’re just not getting paid.’”
“Behrens does not put up dry wall or cement cinderblocks or show homes to prospective buyers, but like nearly every business in formerly fast-growing North Port, Chicago Pizza & Subs has been hit hard by the real estate downturn.”
“‘North Port’s economy was so front-loaded on building,’ said John Pitzer, who works at the Boca Grande Waste Water Treatment Plant, but lives in North Port. ‘Their livelihoods were based on construction. Now they are trying to fall back on something else. There’s a lot of guys out there working for peanuts right now.’”
“Pitzer, too, got caught up in the real estate bubble. Tired of sweltering summer temperatures and the insects that come with it, he and his wife were considering a move to Wyoming. ‘We were talking about it,’ Pitzer said. ‘At first, my wife wasn’t sure she wanted to do it. Then all of a sudden, the bottom falls out. Now we can’t.’”
“Last year…Everett Newton, a molding technician who has been in the industry for 13 years, brought home about $1,200 per week. Now, he clears about $400. ‘They’ve cut back big time,’ Newton said. ‘Last year wasn’t the greatest. But this year, the real estate economy has just crashed.’”
“Though the work has slowed dramatically, his mortgage payments have not. His neighborhood was once growing, a home to speculators, newly arriving families and scores of construction crews. Now it is half-built homes, vacancies and ‘For Sale’ signs.”
“‘I would say in a four-block radius of my house, there are 10 homes for sale,’ Newton said. ‘They’ve been up for sale for a year. They aren’t selling. A lot of stuff is going up for sale. I think they are trying to sell and get out before things get worse.’”
The Pensacola News Journal. “Escambia County Property Appraiser Chris Jones says the Florida Department of Revenue is trying to force him to raise property assessments.”
“Jones, who has worked in the property appraiser field for 28 years, said the situation is anything but routine. ‘I’ve been the property appraiser for Escambia County for 12 years, and I’ve never had this happen,’ he said.”
“In reviewing county tax rolls, the Department of Revenue compares property appraiser assessments to the actual prices for which properties sell.”
“But Jones is arguing that such a comparison does not present a true picture of the local real-estate market.”
“He contends that the market, especially the residential market, is so sluggish that sellers are having to make numerous financial concessions, not reflected in the sales price, to unload their properties.”
“‘If I sold you a house for $150,000 but gave you $5,000 in concessions, then that house’s real value is $145,000,’ Jones said.”
“Before Hurricane Ivan made landfall in September 2004, there were between 1,200 and 1,500 homes for sale in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties. This year’s tax rolls are based on home sales in 2006, when there were more than 7,000 homes up for sale.”
“New home sales in Escambia County dropped 41 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 when compared to the previous year, according to the Haas Center for Business Research and Development at the University of West Florida. During the same time frame, Santa Rosa’s new home sales dropped 35 percent.”
“The housing glut, skyrocketing homeowners’ insurance rates and property taxes generally are agreed to be contributors to the drop.”
“Several real estate salespeople also said they agree with Jones that sellers are making frequent concessions. ‘There is just about a concession on every house sold,’ said broker associate Trish Sarfert.”
‘Does anyone remember driving through the West Shore area of Tampa in the late 1980s? This time and place in Florida history is where the phrase, ‘See-Through Buildings’ became popular. The main reason Tampa and other Florida cities got overbuilt in the late 1980s was because we had this wonderfully vibrant real estate market in the early ’80s. Prices kept going up, we had more demand than supply and everyone dreamed of being a real estate broker … including yours truly. During this time, we all thought we were bullet-proof.’
‘The next time you drive around town and especially down Summerlin Road, try counting all the new office buildings under construction or the new office buildings recently finished. See if you can see through them. I can.’
‘Andy and Cidalia High…moved to Lehigh Acres in January after Andy accepted a job transfer. For some, like the Highs, living in the area and renting a home for some time allowed them the luxury of learning about the community first-hand so they could decide exactly where they wanted to settle.’
‘Andy High agrees that renting first worked best for them. ‘It took us seven months and I think that was exactly right,’ he said…’At first it was, ‘Let’s take our time.’ Then, after about a week, it was, ‘Let’s get a house. Let’s get a house,’ he recalled. ‘But the longer we looked, the more properties kept dropping into our price range. We had so many choices. It took us that long to really get a handle on what we wanted, how much we wanted to spend and when to do this.’
‘JJ Jones, broker in Estero and president of the Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, offered advice to newcomers.
‘It’s a great time to buy. Prices are at the lowest they’ve been in four years. There’s a large inventory right now and interest rates are still low,’ Jones said.’
‘While many people like to rent first, Jones said, ‘I’d encourage them to buy as soon as possible. You’re always going to get equity. If you decide you don’t want to stay in Florida, you can always rent it out and sell it later.’
You’re always going to get equity. If you decide you don’t want to stay in Florida, you can always rent it out and sell it later
Unless the prices drop, which is just about what everyone with a pulse is not prediciting. Or, you can take option 2 and rent it out at between 1/2 and 1/5th the carrying costs; have a good chance to not renting it for long stretchs of time (there is a massive glut in the McMansion rental industry right now), and continue to bleed equity all the way down this ugly path.
Buy when the time is right, the home is priced fairly, and you are ready to buy. Being “priced out forever” is a myth! Especially, if like many of my friends, you are making 4X the median salary for the area.. Not going to happen, priced out forever is going to be another phrase like “P/E ratios don’t matter” or the “Internet Economy” that is going to go down in history as a truly idiotic idea.
‘Does anyone remember driving through the West Shore area of Tampa in the late 1980s?
No, but I do remember my cousin in Boca Raton saying that Boca real estate was like herpes…because you can’t get rid of either one.
Hi Ben,
Yes, I frequently drove Westshore during the 1980s. It was booming with new office high rises. In the ’70s and ’80s, the epicenter of Tampa business moved from (dead) downtown to Westshore Boulevard; now a lot has moved back downtown, which is still ghastly.
Meanwhile, Westshore has become a vast traffic jam because thousands of people WERE moving here every month, and some of the nicest residential properties are in the Westshore district. Beach Park, for example, is one of the most expensive neighborhoods in the entire county.
I’ve never heard the expression “see-through buildings,” though I suspect this had as much to do with floor-to-ceiling glass and two-story or taller lobbies, than a lack of tenets (I’ve never noticed any empty buildings on Westshore). Back then, many of the structures were considered ultramodern, though today many look dated.
See-through office buildings refers to glass-walled, completed, unleased properties. You can see through them because there is no tenant build-out, just the shells. See through buildings were all over the sunbelt and California during the 1980s. They were first S&L REO (S&Ls were typically the construction lenders) then became property of the RTC after the S&Ls were put into receivership.
Perfect storm in reverse- The factors that contributed to the national -it isn’t just local anymore- housing bubble have now reversed, gory details well known. The biggest surprise in this market is that sellers have have held out for so long (never underestimate the power of denial). But buyers will hold out even longer. For those sellers who can, it is better to take a lower price now than an even lower price later. Housing will be a steadily depreciating asset for the forseeable future. 2010 anyone?
‘It’s a great time to buy. Prices are at the lowest they’ve been in four years. There’s a large inventory right now and interest rates are still low,’ Jones said.’
I like the way they use truth to tell lies. Individually, and even collectiively these statements make it sound good, if you don’t use your brain. What happens when interest rates go up though?
Just three words: O…M…G!
Stole the words out of my mouth when I read this:
“The homes that are on the market, or soon will be, represent a 4.7-year supply given the current pace of sales.”
Certainly a 4.7-year supply is historically unprecedented?
GetStucco,
Ya’all ain’t seen nuthin yet…Centex broke ground on a development in North Port 4 or 5 months ago. I drove through it on my home from work yesterday. This place should end up having 3-5k new homes. I have a feeling it is not going to end well. Centex lowered prices but still is out of line with the local builders. A sign in front of a local office says…”Prices from 58.00 per square foot” . Here is a link to ponder….
http://www.centexhomes.com/Sarasota/N45854.asp
Wow…I just noticed this was a 55 and over community,good luck with that !
Chris
Sounds vaguely reminiscent of San Diego’s 131 “New Home Communities”…
http://sdhomessearch.signonsandiego.com/NewHomes/searchindex.asp
They should have NOT put an age restriction. Do those builders get any government subsidation for 55+? If not that is just dumb!
We have 5 years (60 months) for a period in Palm Beach county. It has gone back down, but only because of people pulling homes off the market. I predict that next summer we may see close to 10 years of inventory on the market at one time in the bubbliest areas.
And that’s just based on this past years ARM resets. How about the next 3 years. I’m guessing we’ll see a 12 year supply at some point. I’d have to guess there was something similar to this in the 1930s.
It almost seems like bloggers and commenters are writing today’s housing news. Reading it is like deja vu because I read it before 12 to 15 months ago.
Weird, isn’t it?
‘It’s a great time to buy. Prices are at the lowest they’ve been in four years. There’s a large inventory right now and interest rates are still low,’ Jones said.’>
You know there is more to come when realtors are still so arrogant.
you’re always going to get equity.>
Oh really, after the largest runup in real estate history. These same guys making these statements now will be panhandling soon. Especially if they are taking their own advice.
Prices are still outrageous here in the Rhode Island area. There arent as many for sale signs. People generally make decent money, however prices are way out of whack. I keep wondering how long its going to take before we see any downward pressure.
Asking myself the same thing here in MA.
Everytime I see another overpriced house come on the market, I just want to puke.
Just went to open house in Danvers for condo. Nice community, however 400 hoa and 300 tax to start. 329K for a 20+ year old condo that still had all the 50/60’s feel.
Realtor says great time to buy as these were previously selling in the 380’s. Quote … “Seller is motivated knows the place is outdated. You could fix one room at a time and eventually have a nice place”.
This hits home for me Last year i had to turn down DJ gigs , then all of a sudden all the old peoples parties 40th50th birthdays 10-20 25 year anniversaries, Back yard block parties even high school reunions just seemed to vanish.. And people wanted to pay less then i charged 15 years ago.
====================
“Last year, I was working all the time, really. After February of this year, it just slowed down all of a sudden. There were no explanations.
“Just one day, there was no more work.”
DJ: I don’t want to be mean to you but I think your vocation is in process of obsoleting itself. The parties are still going on.
I had a friend who got married last year and they did their music from their computer. I’m getting married later this year and my music will come from an iPOD. It will plug into a 400W PA that I still have from when I played in a band.
If I look at it, years ago you’d pay a DJ for his music collection where there is no way, you’d get all that music on vinyl. Similar thing with CDs.
Now, you can do that electronically and pay per song if you needed party songs. Maybe you should look at equipment rental instead. Not many people have the PAs or lights. You lease it yourself but charge it out with a set up fee.
I have been renting out my equipment as well. And I agree it has been the EASY THEFT of music, that hurts us the most.
And record companies are fully to blame. We could have had licensed DJ music, and anyone without it would be fined.
But now anyone and his mother can be a deeejay which cheapens the profession. Lowers the standard and makes it easy to say what a crappy dj we got…next time i will use an ipod.
I guess i am sad because its something i love to do, and for almost 20years has provide some nice pt (and sometimes Fulltime) income all going down the tubes by the easy availability of stolen music.
One more. Visited Lowes this morning and wanted 3/4 sheet of plywood ripped in half. “Could you hold on 5 minutes”. Me …”sure”. Kid comes along and says “I can rip it for you but the blade is real dull and one I did last night tore the plywood apart”. Me … How long will it take to change the blade? Kid … “Oh I don’t know if they have any plans to change it”. Me … So, you’re gonna let me walk out the door with my $50 sale and go to Home Depot for a blade. Kid … Sorry sir but yah.
It gets worse, No one to be found in HD lumber. I mean NO ONE. If it wasn’t for the sole cashier you could have loaded a truck and drove off. 3 people looking for help. At least 6 pages pleading for someone to assist us. Eventually 20 minutes later a “Lumber” sales person arrived.
And they wonder why their stock is down?
Last time I was at HD I asked the kid where the caulk was. He said “the what”? I said “the caulk”. Dumb stare. After some more awkward, silence he said he didn’t know what caulk is.
Yeah, its even better when you have an English accent and ask for something by its English name (ie ‘caulk’ = ‘grout’) because you don’t know the American version of it…
Despite having a Home Depot a half mile away, I no longer go there.
Talked to a spotty youth who just couldn’t get to grips with ‘light bulb’ in a ‘different’ accent (he looked at me slack-jawed for a moment and pointed me towards the lumber section)..there’s never any staff there. You’d be lucky to find two of the 16 aisles open.
LOL they are hiring MC donalds people now
I wish –McDonalds is a model of effiency and speed compared to miserable service you typically get at Home Despot.
The same thing happened to me yesterday, the Local Strauss auto store was out of stock on 4 sale items i wanted in their circular….and on a Saturday…ok on a Tuesday to be out of stock, but on a Saturday….
I thought it was a fluke when it happened to me 2 weeks ago…but WTF? Cant get sale merchandise in-stock for the weekend shoppers?
I live in Tampa and have been following the market closely for the past 2 years. Tampa Bay prices are still high, down about 12% from the peak (june 2005). Inventory for sale is at it’s highest ever and still growing (16 months).
I’ll tag on here with a comment about what was on the local news this weekend 6 o’clock edition. There was a very long spot reguarding real estate in Tampa. The whole thing really felt like a paid advertisement rather than actual reporting, and I think that it really was just that. According to the report it will all be roses here in the Tampa bay area. The sole “proof” presented was low unemployment figures and not much else other than a chart. Mind you this chart was not presented with actual data but was as follows: there were 3 charts presented the V chart, the U chart, and the L chart. the V was to show rapid decline followed by a rapid increase (this is what they expect for tampa) the U was gradual decline slump followed by a gradual increase. the third the L graph was a decline followed by a period of flat prices. OH…they actually stated that the insurance and property tax issues have been addressed and will help the market. I think that you would have to be completely out of touch with reality or completely oblivious to it to consider any of this as fact. Of course I found it difficult to reconcile this first report on the evening news with one on the 11 o’clock news that was discussing how people are losing their homes because the building and construction related jobs are drying up, or their ARM is adjusting up and of course can’t pay the mortgage or taxes. I thank God my father insisted that I learn to think for myself and to apply critical thinking when I was growing up. However, It does seem that life is much easier as a sheep…untill the slaughter.
Assuming that some of these counties are overbuilt, and that the prices and latent demand dont pick up in the next 3-4 years.
Would it make sense for companies to relocate from the NorthEast for affordable worker housing? or is that a dream?
“A 1,600-square-foot home built in 2004 that might have commanded $203,000 during the boom is now worth $60,000 less, Black said. An acre of land that went for $50,000 two years ago can now be had for $10,000.”
Holy cow!
http://www.kidsfarm.com/chickens.htm
Don’t bet on the 3-4 years supply as builders are still slamming houses out here.(Orlando) Yep, I have no doubt that they will keep spec’ing houses till the well is absolutely dry. Who else gets paid for supplying unnecessary product? Keep gettin those draws boys. To hell with the locals. It is nothing more than disdain for the communities within which they work.
Maybe they are waiting for hedge funds or private equity firms to swoop in and snap up all their spec homes before the years supply surpasses ten?
“Keep gettin those draws boys. To hell with the locals. It is nothing more than disdain for the communities within which they work.”
Testify, brothah! Complete and utter disdain, and it shows. Plus they dump all their illegal workers on the communities for health care, education of the children and increased costs associated with crime.
The irony of this just hit me. The builders get the neighbours to subsidize their labor benefits.
This is no different than the meat packing plants that IMPORTED their own labor from Mexico, and left it up to these small communities to deal with the large social costs of this “cheap labor”.
Or the private prisons in North Dakota that are dumping released gang-banger convicts and hard-core felons from the east and west coasts into the local communities. Real far-sighted of the local politicos to bring in prisons in the name of job creation.
And what’s a living wage? Is a second job (like my father had for a good part of his working life) out of the question?
Yes, our esteemed governor in Fla wants to bring in Dubai as an investor in the economy of Florida, so they can build a huge “Media City” here. I suggest anyone who thinks this is a good idea read the article in Vanity Fair entitled “Dubai’s the Limit”. If they import their cheap labor from the Middle East and Pakistan, all hell will break loose, because we’ll have a whole other population of illegal immigrants to take care of in Florida when construction is done.
Or WalMart or anybody else who employs people at less than a living wage, illegal or not.
There was recently an article in some keys publication that the slump is over, home sales are up 5% over the same period last year, of course selling prices are down like 30% but hey ….. its obvious its a great time to buy
According to the Florida Association of Realtors (see http://media.living.net/statistics/2007/May_2007_home_chart.pdf ), median sales price of existing single-family homes in Florida is down 5% since a year ago, and the number of houses sold is down 34%. Obviously, the prices shown do not include the incentives that are not reflected in the sales price. Interestingly, the Naples Area Board of Realtors has stopped reporting their stats to the Florida Association of Realtors altogether. I wonder why.
An interesting phenomenon has developed with our local newspaper here in the Ft Lauderdale area. It’s seems like the only major newspaper, the Sun-Sentinel, has simply decided to quit reporting on Real Estate.
Way back on June 26th, the Sun-Sentinel published a story with the headline, “Broward County existing-home sales plummet 33 percent” (http://tinyurl.com/yo86ro). Since that time, nearly 3 weeks ago, they haven’t printed a single story about local residential real estate other than this one about property insurance: http://tinyurl.com/27cndy
During the boom, the Sun-Sentinel ran at least one daily article (usually three or more on Sundays) about residential real estate — now, we’ve gone three weeks without one.
I guess the local Realtors® used their advertising clout and put pressure on the Sun-Sentinel to stop running negative stories about real estate. Without any positive news, the Sentinel has no other choice but to fall completely silent.
Sad.
Better than what we get in The Jacksonville Times Union. They are still printing RE fluff stories like nothing is happening. All you ever hear from the TU is that Jacksonville is “insulated” from the rest of Florida’s RE problems. Sales and prices are down of course, but you wouldn’t know it from the local MSM.
I agree with you the Sun Sentinel is caving in to the Realtors / Brokers. It really is kind of sickening not to publish real honest news, shame on the people who run that paper.
not only the paper, but the politicians. they will pay in 08.
“Florida Department of Revenue is trying to force him to raise property assessments.”
this just sounds bad. why can’t they get money the old fashioned way? why do they have to jack up values?
Property appraisers are elected here in Florida and with all the things going on it is likely many will feel the wrath of the voters. They are just covering their butts. This is all political speak from the assessors as they are capable of making a call on values and defending it with data. I don’t buy the crying of the blues from little more than a politician with a calculator.
Thats why me and so many others are voting with our feet. House prices crashing, yet they are assessing higher? Those greedy politicans just want more property taxes!
Greetings from Clearwater Beach! Just got back last evening from our “scouting” trip down south. The market is terrible up here, but is absolutely dreadful from Naples to Venice. I have never seen so may homes for sale or rent. I have never seen so many empty homes with overgrown yards. Drove through the infamous Leheigh Acres. Why would anyone buy in that dump area? Northport? A total dive with every other house for sale. Cape Coral area? Only thing I liked was the new Mel’s diner on the way to Pine Island. Looked at a gorgeous villa rental in Naples at $1250. Two bedrooms, den, 2 1/2 baths, double garage, marble floors, lanai with a solar heated pool and spa. Rent includes basic cable, trash, lawn and pool upkeep! This planned upscale community has villa and single-family homes from $450 - $1M, is completed, sold-out, and very, very nice. The owner lives in one of the single-family homes in the community. He’s negotiable and we’re ready to move off the beach and away from this area. Think we’ll offer $1100 with a 1-year lease and option for another year. We’ll maintain the pool - he can supply the materials. Deal or no deal?
I live in Pensacola. In just a 1 block radius, there are 4 houses for sale and 3 sitting empty. These houses were built in 1970’s and to bring them up the new codes to get reasonable insurance rates, it would cost at least 1/4 of the value of the property. Most in this area were either dropped by insurance or had their premiums double. Only one had an ARM. One was taken off the market and put back on immediately with a new MLS number. Most are moving out of the state. The population dropped by over 700 last year in Pensacola. There is no shortage of people who are looking to leave the area but are locked in for one reason or another.
Little anecdote from East Bay area of Hillsborough:
I was out and about yesterday at estate and garage sales. Went to an estate sale over at the affluent retirement community nearby. The house had been sold for around $175,000. Nice place, too. The comment was that they had to “give it away” to sell it. I think at peak that house would have gone for close to $300,000. Anyway, apparently the realtor who sold the place is one of the few in the area doing any business, because she has a pretty good handle on what’s going on in the market.
“Now that the boom is over, North Port is suffering more than any other place in Southwest Florida. Its economy is based on home building and real estate sales, and those industries are now at a virtual standstill.”
I thought that it was Port St. Lucie. What is this, a competition for housing down and out? Florida isn’t toast. Its burnt and crispy.
Class… open your Books to Florida real estate 1925/1926. Little Susie, please read the part about selling prices from 1926 on. “Homes sold for 10% of their peak price, about half the price of materials with little offset for labor or land quality, except for exceptional properties where land sold for 5 cents on the dollar.”
Got popcorn?
Neil
“Now that the boom is over, North Port is suffering more than any other place in Southwest Florida. Its economy is based on home building and real estate sales, and those industries are now at a virtual standstill.”
Well, there ya go! North Port is the perfect example of how no economy can survive on real estate alone. In fact, real estate is supported by the creation of jobs and commerce in other industries. Real estate is just in the business of creating residences and facilities in which to do business..HELLO!!?? Duh! The grand experiment of a “Real Estate Economy” in North Port has failed. RIP!
Palmetto, I live in this ‘dive’ North Port. I have been in this area for 10 years now; except that after we sold our North port home in 2005, we left for a year. We are now back as renters; but we couldn’t believe what we came back to. Model homes on EVERY corner. Abandoned, half-built homes with 3 foot weeds and roads with potholes so treacherous they could damage a car. Houses once occupied by retirees with ‘pride of ownership’ now seem to be occupied by out-of-work construction persons with their work trucks in their driveways. We had hoped to purchase a home here again after prices ’settled;’ but now I am so glad that we can leave whenever we want. This is no longer the pretty, quiet town I once knew. I am very concerned about the criminal activity that has already increased and will only get worse with rising unemployment and foreclosures, and less tax money for police protection. Our quiet south Florida lifestyle seems to be disappearing.
fldemise, the truth is, North Port was not so bad at one time, provided you had some sort of income that didn’t depend on real estate. There are actually some nice little old block homes there that I wouldn’t mind having. What you are describing has been done in a number of areas of Florida. Some parts of South Hillsborough are like that now.
Little Johnny raises his hand, “Teacher, may I be excused. I need to throw up.”
Roidy
Bold off
test
test
?
the whole thread has changed to bold since post:
2007-07-15 06:18:34
Feel free to delete my test posts…
I tried turning the bold off.
I like bold, easier to read. LOL
I’m not seeing bold. Oh, wait, you mean SOLD! Must be a realtor troll on the blog.
I thought I’d share w/the Fla contingent that after Tim Russert this am our local network went to an infomercial for a used car dealer.
I was cleaning so I inadvertently left it on. Found it interesting that the dealer started getting excited about all the Fla cars he had just gotten in w/8-10k miles on them. I suppose they could be rentals but do you think the repo’s need to leave the state to be absorbed?
Can you feel the fear building? I can. Get ready to experience the biggest real estate collapse of our lifetime. Real estate is a terrible investment for a decade, maybe more. Max pain straight ahead. The economy is going to roll over big time, and that’s when the fun really begins.
Don’t be a fool and buy right now. You are committing financial suicide if you do.
“Pitzer, too, got caught up in the real estate bubble. Tired of sweltering summer temperatures and the insects that come with it, he and his wife were considering a move to Wyoming. ‘We were talking about it,’ Pitzer said. ‘At first, my wife wasn’t sure she wanted to do it. Then all of a sudden, the bottom falls out. Now we can’t.’”
They could have gotten out with
a smaller gain, but no, they deserved the full amount, and hung on.
Typical of greedy bubble stories.
look for BLS price checkers to descend on this hood
= no inflation !
I have one house on a deep water canal that I’m renting for $895, and I used to get $1,100. The others I used to rent for $1,000 and I’m now getting only $800.’”
‘I have one house on a deep water canal that I’m renting for $895, and I used to get $1,100. The others I used to rent for $1,000 and I’m now getting only $800.’”
This is one of the fallacies that even seasoned real estate investors refuse to own up to, that ‘rents always go up’. Part of what they do is based on increasing rents in their accounting for positive cash flow.
I know from experience that some landlords appreciate good renters who pay on time, perform their own minor repairs, and take care of their premises. These “low maintenance” tenants DESERVE and EXPECT consideration; when they get an increase at the end of their leasing period they figure they will get one at the end of every leasing period, so they opt out and move on to the next landlord.
Landlords that do automatic rent increases chase away their best “low maintenance” tenants and hand them on a silver platter to their competition. They then do not have a choice but to increase rents on their ‘folio of “high maintenance” tenants, and the cycle of purging good tenants from their properties continues.
Got 10% down?
‘I have one house on a deep water canal that I’m renting for $895, and I used to get $1,100. The others I used to rent for $1,000 and I’m now getting only $800.’”
Cry me a deepwater canal, Bagholder Boy.
Crash and burn! News like this makes me excited. I am leaving Florida but houses up north are even cheaper and the taxes lower.
I placed an ad on Craigslist:
Housing Wanted!!!
Reply to: hous-374788683@craigslist.org
Date: 2007-07-16, 12:44AM EDT
We are a wise, mature couple looking for a long -term (if necessary) rental while the housing market crashes. It took Japan 15 years for their market to finish crashing. We are willing to wait this out for as long as it takes, are you?
We are willing to pay 1,000 to 1300 monthly, first and last and damage deposit (going into Escrow) depending on location and house.
We require a large (2000 sq feet under air) three bedroom + den, two bathroom, pool, screened lanai, security system and with a fenced yard for our pets.
If you do not have a fenced yard, we would be willing to contribute to this by adjusting the rental price and we will contribute towards the fence.
We are responsible people that take tremendous pride in living in a home and taking care of it as if it were our own.
Husband has been working the same job for 14 years and has a 20-year military career behind him and he is still in the reserves.
We are NOT interested in renting from someone facing foreclosure or behind on their mortgage payments or taxes or insurance.
We are relocating from Montreal, Canada on Sept 19, 2007.
We have rented a temporary home in Wellington for sixty days while we entertain your offers to rent.
We have no problem letting you see our bank statements, credit reports and credit scores if you have no problem with the same. We also have a letter of reference from our current landlord of five years.
If you have a home built in 2002 or early 2003 and wish to sell it NOW we have an offer for you.
We are willing to pay you 2002 prices with a 15% appreciation for your property.
We have very large cash down payment, we have excellent credit, and we have no contingencies. We are ready to buy now from a seller that recognizes that the run up from the last five years was based on pure market speculation, investors and easy financing.
Now that the speculators and investors have left the market and the easy credit has dried up, who is left to purchase homes with price tags double from what they were in 2002 when the median income in Florida is 43K, 49K in PSL and 70K in Wellington?
It took Japan 15 years for their market to finish crashing. We are willing to wait this out for as long as it takes, are you?
Look down your street and notice how many homes are for sale and NOT moving!!! Look up how many homes has sold in your area for the last six months to a year.
We are willing to pay you 2002 prices with 15% appreciation (or 50% off peak 2005 prices) to avoid you having your home languish on the market while you slowly chase the market down.
We are looking to spend 150K to 200K (based on area) for a home that matches the description of what we have indicated.
I wonder if we will get any bites on that.
Classic.
6 months from now they be desperately trying to Google that listing to see if you’re still interested.
“We are willing to pay you 2002 prices with a 15% appreciation for your property. ”
Damn vultures need to get off the hemp pipe. First, they demand that the seller is in good standing (i.e. propert is not delinquent). Then they ask for a sales price from 4 years ago +15% appreciation. I’d show them the middle finger and advise them to continue freezing their asses off in Canada, or alternatively to move to Japan and take advantage of the rock-bottom real estate prices.
A 2003 house price compounded for M3 inflation over 4 years would require a lot more than a 15% markup, just to break even. That doesn’t even bring into the picture additional closing costs. I wouldn’t even rent to these vultures.
I placed an ad on Craigslist:
Housing Wanted!!!
Reply to: hous-374788683@craigslist.org
Date: 2007-07-16, 12:44AM EDT
We are a wise, mature couple looking for a long -term (if necessary) rental while the housing market crashes. It took Japan 15 years for their market to finish crashing. We are willing to wait this out for as long as it takes, are you?
We are willing to pay 1,000 to 1300 monthly, first and last and damage deposit (going into Escrow) depending on location and house.
We require a large (2000 sq feet under air) three bedroom + den, two bathroom, pool, screened lanai, security system and with a fenced yard for our pets.
If you do not have a fenced yard, we would be willing to contribute to this by adjusting the rental price and we will contribute towards the fence.
We are responsible people that take tremendous pride in living in a home and taking care of it as if it were our own.
Husband has been working the same job for 14 years and has a 20-year military career behind him and he is still in the reserves.
We are NOT interested in renting from someone facing foreclosure or behind on their mortgage payments or taxes or insurance.
We are relocating from Montreal, Canada on Sept 19, 2007.
We have rented a temporary home in Wellington for sixty days while we entertain your offers to rent.
We have no problem letting you see our bank statements, credit reports and credit scores if you have no problem with the same. We also have a letter of reference from our current landlord of five years.
If you have a home built in 2002 or early 2003 and wish to sell it NOW we have an offer for you.
We are willing to pay you 2002 prices with a 15% appreciation for your property.
We have very large cash down payment, we have excellent credit, and we have no contingencies. We are ready to buy now from a seller that recognizes that the run up from the last five years was based on pure market speculation, investors and easy financing.
Now that the speculators and investors have left the market and the easy credit has dried up, who is left to purchase homes with price tags double from what they were in 2002 when the median income in Florida is 43K, 49K in PSL and 70K in Wellington?
It took Japan 15 years for their market to finish crashing. We are willing to wait this out for as long as it takes, are you?
Look down your street and notice how many homes are for sale and NOT moving!!! Look up how many homes has sold in your area for the last six months to a year.
We are willing to pay you 2002 prices with 15% appreciation (or 50% off peak 2005 prices) to avoid you having your home languish on the market while you slowly chase the market down.
We are looking to spend 150K to 200K (based on area) for a home that matches the description of what we have indicated.
How is Florida making it? I mean really, with the salaries being paid?
Just explain to me how the current prices make sense and I will agree that I wasted my time writing that.
Look around you, how do people have expensive luxury cars, 300K+++ houses, paying for utilities, taxes, insurance, car insurance and groceries, etc. etc. etc.?
They are living on credit cards and Home Visa machines.
I sat and crunched numbers today on Quicken, our our personal mandatory expenses food, rent, insurance, gas, etc..we have no personal debt.
I never added going out, eating out, clothing, prescription drugs, impulse buying etc….etc….etc…my mandatory expenses (that everyone has) added up to 2620 per month based on a single family rental home of 1,000 monthly.
A thousand dollar monthly rent payment is NOTHING in comparison to what a mortgage, taxes, insurance, and maintenance is or will become when that ARM resets.
The only think propping this up are the ARM’s, and interest only….this thing is busting wide open when the trillion dollars of them adjusts.
I work in the cc industry and I can tell you that Americans are in debt up to their eyeballs and sinking fast.
This is going to be the ugliest crash in the history of man kind to go along with the biggest credit bubble of mankind.
I very well may have made my offer to high.
I am an appraiser in Orlando. I starved during the runup as I did not believe the so called values etc. I am loathe to work for brokers and refuse to cut fees for the management companies so they can take half my hard earned fees. So I was was pretty much screwed this past 4-5 years.
Now I am working for large law firms in the area in fraud investigation. It is nothing short of amazing. I will be giving seminars on fraud investigation to the bar association throughout the state beginning in the fall. As a part of this effort I need to compile the types of fraud evident in real estate now and in the future.
There are greater minds than mine on this board and I would greatly appreciate your help in putting this list and detail together. In the end it will benefit all of us as we clean out this rats nest.
Please send any and all scams you have heard about along with details to my email at jconnor3@gmail.com
I will keep it confidential in all cases.
Your help is appreciated and I will post data here as it comes to me.
There is a great blog - http://www.bubbletracking.blogspot.com/ - focusing on Southern California. It has a lot of fraud entries, as well:
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/search/label/Mortgage%20Fraud
happy hunting !!! please be a good sport and share more of what you learn — and a couple good fraud stories — with us here at thehousingbubbleblog.com — we LOVE seeing scams and frauds exposed.