‘The Boom Is Over’ In New England
The New York Times has a pair of reports on the housing bubble. “As clusters of open-house balloons bob across the suburbs of the metropolitan area, from the New Englandy enclaves of Fairfield County, Conn., to the salt-sprayed boroughs of the Jersey Shore, the question remains: whither the housing market?”
“Inventory is expanding, sales volume declining and bidding wars, once commonplace, increasingly rare. In short, the boom is over.”
“‘A few years ago, sellers were not making their beds and leaving dishes in the sink, and buyers were still coming and buying,’ said Cindy DeRose, a sales agent in Irvington. ‘It has cooled down enough that sellers just have to do a little more work, frankly.’”
“On Long Island, the number of unsold houses in January stood at 23,470, a 67 percent jump from the year before. In Fairfield County, Conn., the number of houses for sale at the end of last year was 35 percent higher than in late 2004. Inventories in some communities (Norwalk, Easton, New Canaan and Darien) were up more than 50 percent. New Jersey’s inventory swelled, too, up 46 percent in January over the previous year.”
“For sellers, the new market dynamic can lead to frustration. Gary Harman put his house, in East Hanover, N.J., on the market for $539,000. None of the more than 25 people who came to see it made an offer. He has since dropped the price twice, to $519,900.”
“Carol Ann Decker put a town house, in Fairfield, Conn., on the market for $535,000. ‘We sold it instantly,’ she said. But the buyer got ‘cold feet,’ she said, and failed to move forward with an inspection. Then three other buyers expressed interest. ‘I thought, ‘Oh, wow, this is going to be great,’ Mrs. Decker recalled. ‘But it’s been a number of weeks and they’re all just sitting and waiting.’”
“Falling for a house is a lot like falling in love. Their love may be blind, but their home inspectors and appraisers are not. ‘When prices of homes were accelerating the past few years, people were more willing to accept problems with houses they knew were in bad condition because they could turn it over and make a profit,’ Dave Zappulla said.”
“According to Mr. Zappulla and other real estate experts, as the market has become less frenzied, buyers and sellers are leaning more on the opinions of inspectors and appraisers and paying closer attention to problems. ‘Up until about May or June, people were going ahead and buying homes even if the appraised value did not support the sale price,’ Mr. Carter said. ‘But the buyer mentality has shifted, and people are no longer in a hurry.’”
“‘In fact, we’re starting to experience people wanting appraisals before they go to contract’ instead of waiting for mortgage lenders to order them, he said.”
“(Appraiser) Anthony Messina said that as the market cooled, disappointed sellers were beginning to steam. ‘We had one person who had his house in Atlantic County listed for $325,000, and when we appraised its value at $270,000, he started getting angry and calling us stupid,’ Mr. Messina said. ‘The problem for buyers is that the market is starting to change; you can’t just blame an appraiser.’”
“From where Mr. Zappulla sits, which is often in a crawl space or an attic, the bottom line is that buyers are not willing to accept certain things that they let slide a few years ago. ‘Nobody wants to pay a million dollars for a piece of junk,’ he said.”
“‘A few years ago, sellers were not making their beds and leaving dishes in the sink, and buyers were still coming and buying,’ said Cindy DeRose, a sales agent in Irvington. ‘It has cooled down enough that sellers just have to do a little more work, frankly.’”
So that’s the secret of making money in a down market–wash the dishes and make the bed. That’s like balancing the Federal Budget by curbing waste, fraud, and abuse. It’s painless.
“Falling for a house is a lot like falling in love. Their love may be blind, but their home inspectors and appraisers are not. ‘When prices of homes were accelerating the past few years, people were more willing to accept problems with houses they knew were in bad condition because they could turn it over and make a profit,’ Dave Zappulla said.”
Boy is that on target. After the honeymoon, the ongoing cost of staying in love is pretty darn high! And likewise for the aftermath of a home purchase…
“That Sound You Hear? The Market Coming Down to Earth”
Does it sound more like a hiss, or an explosion?
“Does it sound more like a hiss, or an explosion?”
It might be an explosion, but you might be in a unique Matrix time warp where you can see it happen in slow motion such that it doesn’t appear to be one, and all the sellers moving in sync with the speed - too late!
Stephanie
“…Gary Harman watched in recent years as his neighbors sold Cape Cod-style homes for more than a half-million dollars. At the end of December, he put his house, in East Hanover, N.J., on the market for $539,000. None of the more than 25 people who came to see it made an offer. He has since dropped the price twice, to $519,900. He believes his house stands out because of the abundant custom wood molding he installed himself. “The discouraging part is that when the people go through the house, they don’t even take that into consideration,” he said. “You could have holes in the house and it wouldn’t matter.”
Sounds like another seller who thinks you can just add the cost of an addition to the price and people will pay. Unfortunately, one man’s ceiling is another man’s floor and in all likelihood, half the people likely look at the molding and envision ripping it out.
Nothing is sure but death, taxes and sellers thinking their homes are worth more than they really are.
It would have mattered a year ago but when the tide turns, nobody cares about your custom molding. He needs to get real and cut maybe 20% off that price if that still gets him a profit and he refuses to live there himself. If the custom molding is so great, why does he want to sell it? He should enjoy it since no one else seems to care.
Even a year ago it wouldn’t have mattered. Sheeple were buying because they thought they were going to “get priced out”….the supposed “improvements” were invisible to them. Now this guy’s feelings are getting stomped on because no one sees his custom molding
….he’s a classic example of an emotional seller.
What I think is even more amazing is that he will say in a loud voice that he has dropped the price twice…TWICE, he says. But it was only a $19,100 price drop. Dude is going to have to close his eyes and really drop it to sell. It would have been more realistic if the first drop were $19k, and the subsequent one was another $20-30K. Then he’d be seen as making some effort.
This article is not dated, but it shows the improvements that count towards payback in home value:
http://doityourself.com/enjoyinghomes/nottorenovate.htm
BayQT~
I live in an area where most of the homes were built in the 1940s. They are not great homes but they sit on valuable land. Some rehabbers/builders are basically tearing down or gutting the old home and building a new one on the property — new copper plumbing, new everything. Our town won’t allow McMansions so the people who are doing this are building very high quality homes on these lots so they can sell for good prices — and they are. Most of them are very unique and you can tell a lot of work has gone into them.
What kills me is when Joe Blow sees the prices the homes in the area are bringing and thinks his 1940 teardown is worth the same amount. Yeah, he may have painted and done a few other things (like custom molding) but there is no way in heck his house is worth the same price as one that has been completely gutted and redone.
I’m house hunting in the Fairfield, CT area for 6 months now. Reduced signs are gradually appearing here and there since January, but more so in areas northeast of Fairfield (Bridgeport, Stratford, Milford) than anything in the Fairfield-Stamford area… and the reductions are really minimal. 10k here or 15k there for a 450k house which looks more like a shitbox to me. And condo projects are still popping up all over the place, now even in Bridgeport! For 500k you can now buy a condo in bridgeport with its 40. mil taxe rate, bad schools and high car taxes. It’s after all ‘only’ 1 hour and a half from grand central one way if Metro North runs on time. Woohoo. I STILL don’t see a real market turnaround - it’s less insane, but sellers genuinely believe that the 900 square ft joint they purchased in 2003 for 230k is now worth 399k. Curious to see how long this will last — and how many condos they will actually sell after they build them…
We’ve been looking in the Westchester area. While what we’ve been seeing is still WAY overpriced, there is so much more inventory on the market now than at any point we’ve seen in the 6 years we have been living here. It could be wishful thinking, but I can’t help thinking that things have to turn.
We went to visit a new condo development in White Plains yesterday. 200+ units that were originally built as rentals but sold as condos at the last minute. While I was told on the phone by the sales office that we had to make an appointment on weekends as they were always “mobbed” then, when we showed up, there was only one other prospective buyer there. Half of the units are unsold. In the Trump buildings down the street, units sit empty waiting for people to pay $1 for an apartment in the same complex as a Target and across the street from WalMart. It should be interesting to see what happens there.
We have grown soft as a nation. We don’t work as hard as we say we do, we refuse to defer gratification and we don’t save our money. Because we have been so careless, we simply expect our houses to do the work for us. And when they do, we borrow all kinds of money via home equity loans with interest rates which can and will increase. We use this money to buy (or more likely lease) fancy cars, the expensive gasoline they use and take fancy vacations. We jump on jets to the islands and Europe as readily as some hail down taxicabs. We are the bourgeois bohemians and these are our balsamic dreams. Well surprise, surprise, surprise. The party is starting to end, we’re going to have to work until we’re 80 years old and start saving the money our parents did when they first started out. We are getting exactly what we deserve.
Money trees (aka houses) were very fun to own for the past seven-or-so years, but a day of reckoning is at hand, as the forest is on fire…
That’s what Warren Brusse (author of The Second Great Depression) says on Financial Sense….
http://www.financialsense.com/index.html
“The party is starting to end, we’re going to have to work until we’re 80 years old and start saving the money our parents did when they first started out”.
methinks that should read ‘grandparents’ or perhaps even ‘great-grandparents’
Brother, I could not agree more. The real problem will be when these idiots discover there aren’t very many good paying jobs left. They all left the last 5 years to India and beyond while they were busy flipping houses.
True. Even twenty- and thirty - somethings I know who aren’t employed in a real estate - related field have these pseudo/”only in a good economy” jobs like “web developer,” “financial consultant” and “computer consultant” that give them a little extra cash as they max the credit cards and overleverage themselves on housing purchases. When the housing party ends and a real recession (unlike the relatively mild 2001-2002 “recession”) occurs, I think a lot of nontraditional non-real estate jobs will disappear as well.
what do you mean “we,” paleface?
It will last until the builders - who HAVE to sell homes put the screws to their prices and drive them downward because they’re not making quarterly numbers. And everyone else will follow the curve right down, even into the gutter.
Someone yesterday said it best (wish I could remember who it was - great post by the way) that the builders will ultimately be the solution to the massive overinflation of housing prices. Look at the spare inventory building up in every corner of the country. Right now the builders are throwing in bullshite upgrades to try to lure Greatest Fool buyers but inside of half a year people won’t be biting at all - forcing them to crack down on prices to move the inventory. I don’t believe for a second the cost of building a house has doubled let alone tripled inside of 4 years. At MOST the cost of building a home has increased maybe - what? 15% 30%, hell get outrageous and say 80% and we’re still not close to justifying 300% increases in home prices. People realize it now and are just beginning to put the screws to the sellers.. and they are bitching as evidenced in this article. But its only beginning because unlike the sellers who can afford to carry two mortgages for a year (assuming they can), the builders have to build and have to sell to make those numbers and they will get extremely aggressive if necessary to do so. The whole thing could crash in a giant negative feedback loop.
Actually, asset prices are dominated by positive feedback.
Systems dominated by negative feedback are stable. The classic example is a marble sitting in a bowl. If it is moved from it’s equilibrium position at the bottom then the forces tend to move it back to equilibrium.
Systems dominated by positive feedback are unstable and oscillatory. Flip the bowl over and place the marble on top. At the very top it is in equilibrium and experiences no forces but once it moves away from equilibrium the forces act to push it farther away.
Asset prices go up when more people want to buy than sell. More people want to buy than sell when asset prices go up. Positive feedback.
This goes on until some other effect cancels the positive feedback, in this case, lack of liquidity.
But at this point the positive feedback doesn’t disappear, instead it just changes sign and works in the opposite direction.
Asset prices fall because more people want to sell than buy. More people want to sell than buy when asset prices are falling.
Positive feedback.
We knew what he meant. No one likes a pedant.
i actually enjoyed that post, i never knew about the definitions of positive vs. negative feedback
Just a few comments. FIrst the NYC region is not New England, it is the Midatlantic. Second, these idiots selling their houses now need to reduce their prices, it is that simple, the mania is over. And finally, never love anything that won’t love you back. It is just a house, families make it a home.
I lived in one rental place I just loved that would have sold for at most $125K in 2001. I just loved the area and the house. It was offered to me but again, I didn’t buy it because I don’t want to be stuck with anything. It felt like home though and I am sorry today that I didn’t buy it. Zillow now has it valued at $145K so I would have even made some appreciation on it, dangit. LOL
So true, that last sentence…
I’d like to ask Ben Jones and other industry insiders: The Syracuse area has been listed on money.com as undervalued by 6%. While the rest of America was escalating in values, nicely appointed 2200 sq ft homes with an acre+ of land were selling in the mid-$100s. Now we’re trying to move, things have been slow (as they were even the last 4 years…people can’t seem to climb that hill when it’s cold out) Since the homes never really appreciated here, do you have any comments about our pricing.
Also wondering if we should purchase or rent and ride out any bumps? Some people still think our undervalued area could still rise in value. Thanks all.
A few observations for Upstater and others thinking of buying now that things have slowed down:
Many of you are missing the big picture. Shiller is right, i.e. real estate is on the verge of a crash of epic proportions. There is no comparison historically for what is just the beginning of a series of financial failures that will not be confined to a few overblown speculative real estate markets.
Some of you are overly optimistic. You’d be crazy to think that in 12-18 months it will be time to buy. Try 3 to 5 years. Be patient and very cautious.
We are entering a long, painful decline in our standard of living that will be precipitated by a series of asset pops starting with real estate. Real estate values nationwide will drop by 60% to 80% from the 2005 top, back to levels of the mid 90’s, or late 80’s. Economic historians will someday argue that the dot.com crash was the first indicator of systemic problems resulting from easy-money Fed policies. It’s a simple result of too many dollars chasing too few goods excerbated by a herd mentality of chasing the “American Dream”.
Builders will stop building mid-stream, and partially framed houses and foundations will sit for years waiting for a recovery. Foreclosures will skyrocket, REIT’s will go bankrupt, pensions and 401k’s will suffer massive losses.
The value of the dollar will weaken and force the Fed to raise interest rates much higher than the current rate of 4.75%. The Fed will not bail out the real estate industry by reducing rates for fear of creating hyperinflation in the overall economy. Besides, real wages are effectively declining to the point that none of us could afford to buy anything but food and a bicycle.
Many of the comments on this site are focused on the “median value” of homes. Median value means NOTHING if nothing is selling. Sales at the top end in a slow market will radically skew the median value, thereby giving the false impression that home prices are still increasing. This will give the real estate industry continued ammunition to declare it’s only a temporary slowdown or a return to “normal” market conditions.
Bottom line, we are in deep trouble as a nation. It is just beginning.
Well said . This is what I’m seeing to …but I hope I’m wrong .
I fear that Mr. Hooper speaks the truth. In the global economy, all the large autos and long commutes in our society are unnecessary overhead. If the dollar declines greatly against other currencies, oil will become far more expensive for us than for our economic competitors, so the poor business sense of our housing system will come into focus more sharply.
We are entering a long, painful decline in our standard of living that will be precipitated by a series of asset pops starting with real estate. Real estate values nationwide will drop by 60% to 80% from the 2005 top, back to levels of the mid 90’s, or late 80’s.
You’re right on the money with this…
The comment is on target. What most people either can’t or won’t realize is that the time to buy a house will be when no one else wants to. And even then, most won’t be able to afford it. At that point the entire economy is most likely to be moribund.
Thanks Fred and everyone else who agreed. Something to support this theory. Link below is to a conference being hosted by PriceWaterhouse Coopers this April. It is an international conference where people will discuss concerns about the U.S. debtor status. Seems other nations are concerned that we are the biggest capital importer and net debtor in history. The housing industry was specifically noted in the write up. Anyone live in NYC that could go?
http://www.fpa.org/calendar_url2420/calendar_url_show.htm?doc_id=357634
anybody going on the chris szabo tour?
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funny thing, some of the posters at sd investors are angry at this guy.
the pro flipper is screwing up the ameteur flipper.
no kidding
These are the jerks that messed up the house pricing for the true first time buyer /owner occupied people that were struggling for home ownership . They travel to different places in United States creating a false market .
and look at the appreciation statement. this guy is bordering on negligence. i know he’s not guaranteeing it, but he’s sure giving the impression it’s gonna happen.
this one flipper named kang has gotten the message that his flip house in tucson won’t sell, and it’s now a buy and hold at negative cash flow. he blames szabo
Appreciation is ranging from 11 to 18% per year, based on location.
Good fodder for future lawsuits…
I hope he eats a bag of humble pie, that moron!
There are just so many types of flippers…. here are a few:
The Spiderman flipper: Like Alain Robert, this flipper is constantly looking for new buildings to scale. He doesn’t believe he can fall (never using ropes) and won’t look down.
The Elmer Fudd Flipper: I have unwealized gains in my pwopety.. I will wecoup them when I fwip it. I don’t bewieve the mawket will dwop… heh, heh, heh, heh, heh.
The Gloria Gaynor flipper: This flipper thinks it will be close but she will survive
The fast food flipper: Well, he is all that is left after everyone else is gone.
Feel free to name other categories…..
The Flipper Flipper ….hes underwater and going to be there for a long time
The Spiderman Flipper sounds like the Zareh Tahmassebian guy (from a previous topic)with the 23 properties …15 plus an additional 8…who hasn’t even visited all of his properties. When asked why not take his profits, he says, “It’s still going to appreciate better than the stock market. I’m holding on.”
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/05/30/8261260/index.htm
BayQT~
Oh! And he’s 22 years old.
BayQT~
Note the name. A foreigner. A big part of the problem.
Read about Real Estate Wealth Expo.
“The Real Estate market is booming nationwide and no region has witnessed this boom more than the greater Los Angeles area. Take advantage of the thriving market by attending this one of a kind event!”
They are running it to the ground!!!
‘When prices of homes were accelerating the past few years, people were more willing to accept problems with houses they knew were in bad condition because they could turn it over and make a profit,’ Dave Zappulla said.”
The effect of the bubble on lack of inspection of course has its consequences. The Wash Times ran a story about a couple in up-scale Chevy Chase, MD who ran into problems due to lack of inspection when they bought at the bubble peak. The neighbor, a Wash Post editor (ha-ha), wants the house torn down. This is not the focus of the story but should be:
“The couple received the renovation permits to put a two-story addition at the rear of the home. But problems quickly arose when crews found mold, wood rot and termite damage, making additional construction necessary.
The damage was so extensive that more than 50 percent of the existing walls were removed, which meant the building should have been classified as a new home and subject to different zoning regulations.”
http://www.washtimes.com/metro/20060316-105300-6759r.htm
Also it is interesting that a couple who sells a $707k house and buys a $725k house faces bankruptcy after being out of pocket $200k. It’s painful, but bankruptcy? It’s a symptom of our times that younger buyers are completely over-leveraged and buying houses at prices that they shouldn’t touch.
“I got a fevah, and the only prescription is … moah cowbell!”
They are currently out $200k, they will be out a lot more money if their nasty NIMBY neighbours (from no where near New England) and petty local officials get their way and they have to tear the house down.
Read about O.C. home prices and sales - December 18, 2005.
Read about O.C. home prices and sales - March 19, 2006.
Interesting OC charts.
Heck, lowering the price by 15 or 20 % isn’t that much work!
The realtors are acting like the market adjustment is simply a matter of the fixer dogs , and untidy houses , will just have to be fixed up ,( as if this was the only area of price problems ).
test
Pete, NYC is not New England, but it’s not Mid-Atlantic either. It’s technically part of the Northeast U.S., vs NJ which is indeed Mid-atlantic. Just to clarify…
New England, as a whole, is economic “toast”, with the southern region inhabited by, as Portlander Mainer notes; leftist, liberal, “bourgeois bohemians”, who practice well, the full art of anti-growth obstructionism, via thru their smug, self-serving, arrogent, NIMBY’ism.
‘Tis chic to diss the masses. I got mine-f*ck the rest-close the door and let them eat cake.
The northern states where some semblance of self-sufficenct Yankee thrift and commn sense still presides, have had their local economies decimated by the off-shoring of entire mfg. industries compounded by the insidious destruction of the small town commercialism via the Wal-Marts and Home Depots of the world.
With the collapse, has come the reliance on “beggar” tourist incomes derived from the selling of trinkets and cleaning of toilets to and for the “well-heeled” flatlanders from the south.
MA is the only state in the country to have a net population loss 2 years in a row. Only people moving in are immigrants to mow the lawns and suck off the welfare system.
Lots of buyers here for your $650k house, Mr. Mazzhole.
Housing costs and the regulation of business defy imagination. The only ones making it, are the parasitic legions of public employees and health care industry types who leech off the fading years of the Greatest Generation, and the property taxes of those who bought their houses for $35k, and are now assessed at $800k.
The region is headed to become one enormous geriatric ward, as the current generation packs up and heads for greener pastures due to the burgeoning spead of economic obsolescence.
He used “bourgeois bohemians”, but the leftist liberal was your phrase. I live in MA (Your first statement is true- the rest somewhat bizarre). There are alot of people on both sides of the aisle who are living well. Ignorance and arrogance know no political affiliation. Power on either side, though, does tend to make one fat and happy. It goes through cycles. In this one, we will ALL pay.
PS-The post is only bizarre because you’ve probably never lived north of the Hampton Beach toll-booth, or perused the BostonWorks job section recently.
Tough to be a Mazzhole and detested from coast to coast.
NJ/NYC/CT slime follows a close second. Detested by locals but continue to destroy wherever they go.
Bitter, bitter…..
I grew up in rural Maine, and quite poor. I’ve never been to the Hamptons and have seen the Capes (either one) once each. I could care less. Those riches do not define me or make me angry that I don’t have them. Your vitriole is unnecessary.
I’m from North of the tollbooth. Think I responded earlier that stuff runs just as deep here in ultraconservative land. Just take a little success and stir no matter what party you’re inclined to agree with.
I thought the reference to “leftist liberals” was quite bizarre too since it seems like the “conservative right” are the ones most supportive of Wal-Mart expansion and the destruction of small town commercialism. Isn’t it their philosophy: “What’s good for Wal-Mart is good for America”?
That’s fair to say.
I think the days of the NJ/NYC/CT scumbuckets (not to mention the obligatory MassHoles) creating utter wreckage in New England are long gone. We haven’t seen the massive tract development the mid-atlantic saw. What we did see was alot of NYC/NJ/CT scummers reacting to 9/11. Now we’ve always had the refugee scum effect but the current debate is whether we’ve seen the typical refugee effect or are we seeing “panic buying” by NJ/NYC trash. I see panic buying…. Ignorant Anthony and hairy Marie laydown tens of thousands for grossly overpriced untillable land that will costs tens of thousands more in site work just to make buildable. Meanwhile, there is no agricultural exemption for property taxes on this worthless dirt so the City Slime gets hammered all over again.
So the dirt just sits accruing taxes while The Slime “feel” relieved that they’ve somehow gained a bargain. We’re already seeing them relist but at grossly overpriced numbers.
not that mr hd74man has an ideological grudge or anything! Golly! Has he failed to note that non-liberals have been in power for some five years now and have done absolutely nothing to stem the outflow of jobs? In fact, they cheer it and tell us that the US economy is strong. I think mr hd74man should pay more attention to the news and less to his personal resentments.
And it is true that a housing bubble is not something that is a special “gift” from either the left or the right political wing. In fact, every analysis of the bubble I have read that tries to pin responsibility on one side or the other has been somewhat naive.
I’m so amazed that people even debate whether there is a bubble, when everyone who has even looked at a few homes knows that the following quote (from this post) is reality:
“Up until about May or June, people were going ahead and buying homes even if the appraised value did not support the sale price,’ Mr. Carter said. ‘But the buyer mentality has shifted, and people are no longer in a hurry.”
Isn’t this definition of a bubble- widespread prices being totally unhinged from fundamentals, but rather based solely on expected, but unfounded, appreciation?
It would be interesting to take quotes like this with you when talking to realtors.
The second part of this quite is also interesting- the part about buyer mentality. If that’s what has supported prices in the past, it’s what can turn very dramatically too. We are just at the beginning of people questioning the market.. And that’s one way of calling a traditional market “top”.
-Bubble-X
BubbleTrack.blogspot.com
“Nobody wants to pay a million dollars for a piece of junk”.
Tell that to some sellers here in the OC. There are plenty pieces of junk for sale here.
Dear to comments by hd74man
if New England is inhabited by ‘leftists’ ..what is the heartland and deep south and plains inhabited by? Religious birdbrains who hark back to the the 11th century before the dawn of the age of reasoning? Or perhaps Hitlerism-with its full range of intolerant thugs- who hated gays, jews etc….who started wars, promoted racial injustice- and through corporate ‘creativity’ devised pellets dropped in the gas chambers to destroy jews gays and other intellectuals? I suggest small brained idiots like yourself to go bury your small brains in wonderful useless states like Kansas, Wyoming , Kentucky, Alabama, Texas. And one day in perhaps 200 years- you will begin to see the light bewtween darkness and light.
Hey Pete-
You must be one of those HS students who participated in the Bush vs. Hitler debates I’ve been reading about. You need to unplug your video game and go pick up a history book to get your character portrayals in order.
Whew-talk about small brains idiots…
I suggest small brained idiots like yourself to go bury your small brains in wonderful useless states like Kansas, Wyoming , Kentucky, Alabama, Texas. And one day in perhaps 200 years- you will begin to see the light bewtween darkness and light
You need say that face to face to some tall Texan sometime.
I reiterate-Mazzholes detested and reviled from coast to coast.
That can’t be repeated enough. NYC/CT/NJ slime included.
About a year ago I moved from Upstate, NY to the Boston area. Unfortunately I have to agree that NIMBY’ism is pretty horrible here. There are so many restrictions on building that I don’t see why developers even bother.
Local planning boards have a lot of great sounding names for preventing development: “smart growth”, “socially responsible development”, “keeping our community’s character”, etc. The bottom line is that housing supply is choked off, their property values soar, and young middle income people like myself have to accept a long commute to work here.
The thing that really pisses me off about this area is that towns specifically plan development to keep families out. A lot of towns, like Plymouth, zone to restrict the supply of 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom type homes. Town planners explicitly say they’d rather have seniors move in than families, because families use more tax dollars for schools and the like. All I can say is that these towns are going to get what they wish. Pretty soon New England will be one big 55+ senior living community.
If I didn’t like my job so much I’d be out of here already.
Strange
I’m a lefty but I love KY. The people there are lovely and friendly. Compare that to NY where everyone was rude, even though it was clear I wasn’t a native.
When I was in KY I had two families bring their small children over to hear my accent and ask me about kangaroos and koalas.
Check your voting statistics - no matter what state you talk about, there is normally at least 40% voting one side or the other.
They may be republicans and a bit blind to reality, but they are still good people. Insulting them just lowers you to hd74man’s level - the rest of us realise he is an idjit, so let him rant and make a fool of himself.
Leave KY out of it.
Phil
BTW
hd74man - agree with what you said in most respects, so you are not a complete loss.
But blindly classifying all of New England smacks of the same arrogance you are charging.
Not sure about your ‘Greatest Generation’ comments either. Being in my mid 20s I see the baby boomers as:
1. ruining the environment in the name of growth (more people! less trees! less animals! bigger profits! yayayay)
2. living large on fat profits they have managed to hoarde from said growth
3. taking the easy track to high paying jobs aka “when I was young the field was new and you didn’t need a PhD to make partner by 30″ and then expecting us to slave away under “leveraged models”. Leveage model = we do the work, baby boomers get the profits and play golf each Thursday afternoon.
Whats that you say? Longer work hours, lower pay?
I thank the gods my parents have at least invested (albeit in housing - bleh) so that some of that wealth transfer can keep me from poverty when I hit 50.
Phil
PS I live at home with my parents and save my money because I can’t afford to buy a 400k $hithole in the burbs - so don’t think I am driving around in a porsche or wearing $600 jeans. I don’t own a plasma tv either.
life is hard. 
I think fred hooper is correct… all these people who bought homes at way inflated values in 2004 and 2005 they basically cannot afford with their no money-down interest only loans, ARMs etc. are still going to occupy their home until years from now… their locked in interest rates won’t change for a couple of years, their principal is not due until several years from now, and then it will take a long time before the ‘payment due notices’ pile up to such an extent that banks will step in and will force these people to sell (foreclosure etc.). So a lot of talk of bubble bursting on this website, but there may be no bursting at all until 2008-2009! Condo-speculators will burn faster IMO, but not all these people who rushed to buy houses and Mcmansions they cannot afford… Unreal that all these loans were allowed to begin with. Then again, the trade deficit and the loans of the fed. gov. due to the Iraq war and tax cuts to 1% of the population are unreal as well…
I think speculators are the wild card here. I see people eating beans & rice 7 days a week, and getting second jobs to keep their “home”. However, I don’t see that happening to keep an investment. I have heard reports of investers (or 2nd home buyers) making up to 30% of new home buyers. Once they realize they are paying 1K a month for an investment that is only sucking money out of them…
shouldn’t NAR warn thier membewrs about lawsuits- predicting markets ?
NE tanked in early 05- where’s the news ?
all this from google group search — 1992 July 24.
Look CA givt reducing mortgage deduction to reduce the deficit. coult it happen again? 500K exemption gone?out the window?
Rates are lowest in 20years then, still no sales? who thinks that rates coming down again is going to boost the market -in 2009?
see the rent v/s own calculation. where are the journalists these days?
Finally see the discounts by the builder 75/116—> 40 %
A disturbing and perhaps increasing 11.3% of home mortgage borrowers make
material misrepresentations on their applications. The lies range from
minor fibs about income or debts to elaborate plots to steal a lender’s
money. Borrower fraud is especially common in soft markets with high
housing costs. Builders or agents hungry for a sale provide the buyer
with undisclosed down payment cash. This puts unqualified people with no
equity at all into a house. These become the most likely to default.
[San Francisco Examiner]
If a couple earning $50K bought a $150K house, the mortgage would be
$1,200 including property taxes and insurance. If a similar home could be
rented for $800, they would pay $4,800 more each year to buy vs. rent.
They can recover $3K through tax breaks, but would still be $1,800 richer
renting. If the home appreciated 5% per year for 5 years, the would make
a $30K before-tax profit. But if the house didn’t appreciate over the 5
years, they would lose more than $18K on the deal, plus the use of their
money. [San Francisco Chronicle]
Money-raising proposals are at the heart of the current California budget
battle. Among them: capping yearly mortgage interest deductions at $50K,
which at current rates is the interest on a $500K mortgage. That is a cut
of 50% from current law. Proponents argue that the only people who can
qualify for a $500K mortgage are those with incomes of $200K and above who
do not need the deduction anyway. Opponents say the measure would depress
real estate sales and the construction industry. [San Francisco Chronicle]
Interest rates are not the largest drag on housing, jobs are. Until we
see six-figure job creation numbers each month, we’re not going to have
much more of a housing recovery. Since March, rates have been falling and
activity has been lackluster. Seasonally adjusted annual new home sales
have fallen 5 months in a row, and existing home sales also fell in May.
The rates are the lowest in 20 years, and it’s not attracting the
consumer. [Wall Street Journal]
Kennedy-Wilson will auction 35 Euro-style condominiums in Walnut Creek,
California. Minimum selling prices now $75K to $100K; previous asking
prices $116K to $166K. [San Francisco Examiner]
on the peak oil concept - a RE spinning show today showed homes w 10 ft ceilings !
Does this look like a replay(rather back to the furture!)
I wish some of those people visit this board and tell us what it was like then.
many of us can find mirror images of ourselves there. Follow the thread, it is fun and scary. Who says history cannot be a learning experience?
didnt some one there is nothing new in this world? or everything is in cycle? who can deny. This one from Wed, Nov 14 1990 1:44 pm
47. In Southern Santa Clara County, 85 home sellers are offering cars to
anyone who signs a contract this weekend. But the buyer has to agree to
the seller’s asking price. Even some of the real estate developers and
brokers who are sponsoring the event admit they don’t expect to sell many
homes this weekend. There are more than 700 homes for sale with the
San Jose Real Estate Board in the area from Morgan Hill to Gilroy; in
October, there were 68 sales. [San Jose Mercury News].
Gordon Hamachi the owner of the thread is like Ben,
from the same thread
I think the opposition got forclosed on…I would like to see the details
of the woman who got arrested recently here in Santa Clara county for
buying 18 houses on false credit information. I just saw something about it
on TV…woman was a poor immigrant, had no job, no net worth, no income,
but bought 18 houses in the area, including an 800K job she was living in
herself, all on falsified credit information. Sounds like she attended a
few too many Tom Vu seminars. Please post the details, Gordon!
Just a comment. The re-appearance of Tom Vu is amazing. I saw the exact same infomercial in 1987. Most of Tom’s girls in bikinis are middle-aged moms in suburbs now.
Desi, would you like to comment on the housing bubble in India? That is a place I would really like to live and retire to.
very difficult to keep track. No record keeping as diligent as here.
Some places like Bangalore, Chennai— IT centers are booming. i bought small lot 10 years ago. it has tripled now.
I have same question like here. who pays for those apt -1000sqft-30 00000 - 45 00000 rs. cheap credit is also available in plenty. co will send the brokers home to get the paper work done!.
ofcourse india has the largest growing population of young people in the world.
though not as dependant as China, i wonder the effect of recession here on IT industry in India.
I’ve been to Kerala and Tamil Nadu and love it there.